The Trump Administration Does Not Support The Total Invalidation of the ACA

On July 9, the 5th Circuit Court of Appeals heard oral argument in Texas v. United States. The three members on the panel were Judges Jennifer Walker Elrod, Kurt D. Engelhardt, and Carolyn Dineen King. You can listen here.

My first post considered standing. My second post focused on the constitutionality of the individual mandate. This final post will analyze severability.

I approach this topic with some caution because modern severability doctrine is a jurisprudential mess. In short, if a specific provision of a law is declared unconstitutional, courts have to determine how Congress would have intended the rest of the statute to operate in the absence of the unconstitutional provision. This framework suffers from similar problems that plagued original intent originalism, a jurisprudence most originalists abandoned some time ago.

It is impossible to identify, and somehow combine, all the differing purposes that were held by different drafters to reach a single intention of the framers. It is even more difficult to determine a single intent of many framers based on a statute they did not frame. In Booker v. United States, Justice Thomas explained that this approach requires “a nebulous inquiry into hypothetical congressional intent.” To be sure, Congress can address this problem through the inclusion of a severability clause. Such a duly enacted law tells us how the statute should be recreated in the event one provision is set aside. 

Because of this doctrine’s difficulties, there is some merit to the position advocated by the four joint dissenters in NFIB: rather than using a blue pencil to rewrite the law, courts should declare the entire statute unconstitutional, and let Congress start from scratch with a clean slate. 

That approach, the dissenters argued, is far more preferable to that of the controlling opinion. Chief Justice Roberts rewrote the individual mandate and Medicaid expansion. Our zombified ACA has created many unintended problems that would be difficult to roll back legislatively. For example, in states that did not opt into the Medicaid expansion, certain low-income individuals are ineligible for marketplace subsidies. As a result, they cannot obtain subsidized insurance, either through Medicaid or through the marketplace.

During oral arguments in the Fifth Circuit, Judge Engelhardt framed this problem in a colorful way (at 1:34:40):

Judge Engelhardt: Why does Congress want the Article III judiciary to become the taxidermist for every legislative big game accomplishment that Congress achieves? Congress can fix this. Congress could have fixed this after NFIB

Yet, there is a problem with the NFIB joint dissenter’s approach: Article III courts lack the power to enjoin provisions of law that do not injure the Plaintiffs. Justice Thomas articulated this position in his Murphy v. NCAA concurrence. He wrote that the Court’s modern severability doctrine is “in tension with traditional limits on judicial authority.” The judicial duty, or power, he wrote, was “the power to render judgments in individual cases.” When a “statute conflicts with the Constitution, then courts must resolve that dispute and, if they agree with the defendant, follow the higher law of the Constitution.” Early courts did not employ anything that resembles modern severability doctrine. Rather, “they would simply decline to enforce [the unconstitutional statute] in the case before them.” (You should read Kevin Walsh’s article Partial Unconstitutionality, which Justice Thomas cites.)

Under modern doctrine, however, the Court “excise[s],” or removes an unconstitutional provision from a statute as if that excision were the “remedy.” But this approach can’t be right, Justice Thomas writes: “remedies ‘operate with respect to specific parties,’ not ‘on legal rules in the abstract.'” (Here, Justice Thomas favorably cites John Harrison’s article, Severability, Remedies, and Constitutional Adjudication.) Indeed, “courts do not have the power to ‘excise’ or ‘strike down’ statutes.”

In Murphy, Justice Thomas identifies a fundamental, jurisdictional problem with modern severability doctrine: it “often requires courts to weigh in on statutory provisions that no party has standing to challenge, bringing courts dangerously close to issuing advisory opinions.” He explained, “[i]f one provision of a statute is deemed unconstitutional, the severability doctrine places every other provision at risk of being declared nonseverable and thus inoperative; our precedents do not ask whether the plaintiff has standing to challenge those other provisions.” Thomas wrote that “severability doctrine is thus an unexplained exception to the normal rules of standing, as well as the separation-of-powers principles that those rules protect.” Why? Because “severability doctrine comes into play only after the court has” decided that the Plaintiff has “standing to challenge the unconstitutional part of the statute.” Generally, “[i]n every other context, a plaintiff must demonstrate standing for each part of the statute that he wants to challenge.”

In Murphy, Justice Thomas recognized that his analysis was inconsistent with the joint dissent he joined in NFIB. Indeed, he cited that opinion, which explained:

To be sure, an argument can be made that those portions of the Act that none of the parties has standing to challenge cannot be held nonseverable. The response to this argument is that our cases do not support it. See, e.g., Williams v. Standard Oil Co. of La. (1929) (holding nonseverable statutory provisions that did not burden the parties). It would be particularly destructive of sound government to apply such a rule with regard to a multifaceted piece of legislation like the ACA. It would take years, perhaps decades, for each of its provisions to be adjudicated separately—and for some of them (those simply expending federal funds) no one may have separate standing. The Federal Government, the States, and private parties ought to know at once whether the entire legislation fails.

These policy considerations are well-founded. It would be logistically impossible to challenge a massive law like the ACA piecemeal. But if Justice Thomas is correct that the standing inquiry is jurisdictional–that is, the courts are constrained by Article III–then the entire basis for modern severability doctrine is wrong. All of it. For example, in the First Amendment context, the Court’s approach to overbreadth has to be wrong. How can the Court enjoin the entirety of a statute, if only part of that law restricts the Plaintiff’s speech? As with many proposals that emanate from Justice Thomas’s chambers, this change to severability doctrine would be radical. 

Radical for plaintiffs challenging federal law, at least. I suspect that lawyers in the Department of Justice would welcome any shift in the law towards Justice Thomas’s vision. Why? As a general matter, the Department of Justice tries to salvage as much of a federal law as it can. There are of course exceptions to this traditional practice. The Obama Administration declined to defend Section 3 of DOMA in Windsor. And the Trump Administration declined to defend the ACA. But lawyers for the federal government consistently argue that courts should uphold federal law. Yet, in the severability context, these arguments are invariably grounded in the nebulous inquiry into congressional intent–a question on which reasonable minds can differ. Justice Thomas’s concurrence, however, completely reorients the severability remedy in jurisdictional terms: courts cannot enjoin the enforcement of an otherwise inseverable provision, if that provision does not injury the named Plaintiffs. 

Could DOJ simply urge a court to adopt Justice Thomas’s approach? I think not. This approach would effect a revolutionary change in the way courts approach severability. Lower courts, including the 5th Circuit, lack the ability to jettison long-standing doctrine. But what if DOJ could quietly guide the courts towards the Thomas approach, without saying so? I suspect that DOJ is taking this exact approach in the Obamacare litigation. 

After Texas filed its challenge to the ACA, Attorney General Sessions contended that the mandate could not be severed from the ACA’s guaranteed issue and community rating provisions. (These regulations prevent insurers from denying coverage, and charging more, to people with preexisting conditions.) If the mandate was unconstitutional, then the popular insurance reforms would also have to be halted. The Obama Justice Department took this same position in 2012, though it did so before the penalty was reduced to zero.

After Judge O’Connor found that the mandate could not be severed from the entire ACA, the Justice Department switched its position. Most media reports suggested that the government now favored the complete invalidation of the ACA. I was critical of that decision, which I saw as favoring a complete affirmance of the District Court’s ruling. According to Politico, Attorney General William Barr and HHS Secretary Alex Azar opposed this approach, but acting Chief of Staff Mick Mulvaney prevailed upon the President.

On March 25, 2019, Joseph Hunt, the Assistant Attorney General, sent a two sentence letter to the Fifth Circuit:

The Department of Justice has determined that the district court’s judgment should be affirmed. Because the United States is not urging that any portion of the district court’s judgment be reversed, the government intends to file a brief on the appellees’ schedule.

However, we would learn that the government’s actual position was a bit more nuanced. DOJ didn’t seek a complete affirmance. The final sentence of the government’s brief stated, “Accordingly, the court’s judgment should be affirmed on the merits, except insofar as it purports to extend relief to ACA provisions that are unnecessary to remedy plaintiffs’ injuries.” On p. 28, the brief explained this position in more detail: 

Accordingly, while the district court properly considered the legal issues before it and this Court has jurisdiction to affirm the reasoning below on the merits, the relief awarded should be limited only to those provisions that actually injure the individual plaintiffs. For example, the ACA amended several criminal statutes used to prosecute individuals who defraud our healthcare systems. See, e.g., 18 U.S.C. § 1347(b) & 42 U.S.C. § 1320a-7b(h) (defining scienter required for healthcare fraud and anti-kickback violations); 29 U.S.C. § 1149 (adding a false statement offense relating to the sale and marketing of employee health benefit plans). It is unlikely that the plaintiffs here would have standing to challenge the validity of those statutes. See Linda R.S. v. Richard D., 410 U.S. 614, 619 (1973) (“[I]n American jurisprudence at least, a private citizen lacks a judicially cognizable interest in the prosecution or nonprosecution of another.”). The district court can determine the precise scope of the judgment on remand.

At the time, I suspected that the Department of Justice was quietly trying to urge the Court to adopt Justice Thomas’s framework without saying so expressly. I didn’t think the government was simply trying to save its fraud prosecutions–these laws simply provided noncontroversial examples of otherwise inseverable provisions that should not be enjoined. 

DOJ’s strategy became even more clear in its supplemental brief filed shortly before oral arguments. DOJ argued that the Declaratory Judgment Act “does not authorize courts to declare the rights of nonparties.” Here, the brief cited the same John Harrison’s article that Justice Thomas cited. Coincidence? I think not. “That principle,” the government explained, “is consistent with the Article III rule that a ‘remedy must . . . be limited to the inadequacy that produced the injury in fact that the plaintiff has established.'” (citing Gill v. Whitford (2018)). In other words, the mere declaration that the mandate was inseverable from the remainder of the ACA, pursuant to the Declaratory Judgment Act, did not resolve the case. Rather, the government explained, a “remand” was necessary to determine what “ACA provisions” could be salvaged that were “unnecessary to remedy plaintiffs’ injuries.”

I suspect this briefing represented something of a compromise. The politicos in the White House could publicly boast that the Department of Justice was seeking the complete invalidation of Obamacare. Why would President Trump be on the same side as California, and not with Texas!? But in court, the Department of Justice quietly pushes Justice Thomas’s Murphy concurrence, which would salvage some, but not all of Obamacare. Indeed, the parts that would be enjoined are the parts that injure the Plaintiffs–that is, the burdensome regulations. The parts that do not injure the Plaintiffs–the good parts–would remain on the books. This approach has all the hallmarks of a compromise, and has the added benefits of advancing the Department’s institutional interest in limiting judgments to remedy the Plaintiffs’ injuries.  

August Flentje, who argued on behalf of DOJ, resolved any doubts about the government’s strategy. Consider the following colloquy with Judge Elrod (starting at 1:19:00):

Flientje: The only other thing I have to say on remedy is that a point we made in our brief where we differ with the plaintiffs … is that the … declaratory remedy should be limited to the injuries that are established by the Plaintiffs. Again, we think this is more of a technical point. It is a very important institutional point for the government that district court judgments should be limited to the dispute between the parties and the injuries that establish standing for the plaintiffs. Again, we don’t think that needs to be sorted out, which provisions of the ACA would be covered and not covered. That was not addressed in the district court. It would require an assessment of injuries to Texas, which the district did not conduct. And again it might all be obviated if there is a precedential ruling from a higher court that resolves these kinds of issues as a matter of precedent. 

At face value, DOJ’s position is confounding. Douglas Letter, the attorney for the House of Representatives, offered this comment (at 1:36:40):

“The attorney for the Department of Justice, Mr. Flentje and I have been friends for many many years. What he is arguing here, the DOJ position makes no sense.”

Judge Elrod posed a similar question:

Judge Elrod: Could you help a bit with that? That’s a little bit vague. Because it seems that there is an argument that it was inseverable all the way … but then the government says that only a couple of the other provisions would be wrapped up in it…. 

Flientje’s answer to Judge Elrod sheds some light on how the government is seeking to implement Justice Thomas’s Murphy opinion. 

Flientje: Our argument on the scope of the judgment is totally separate from our argument concerning severability. . . . 

Judge Elrod: Are you saying it is entirely inseverable now? Before you argued some parts of it could kept, are you saying the whole thing must go?

Flientje: Our position is that the entire act is not severable. However, the judgment might still be limited. The judgment of the district should still assess the injuries that these various provisions cause to plaintiffs, and should not declare a provision that has no impact on the Plaintiffs to be unlawful based on applying severability. The court might say, the reason this is inseverable is because the whole statute rises or falls together. We have the findings that work as a non-severability clause. We have 9 justices who said this all works together. We have all this assessment of severability that looks to the statute as a whole. So as far as the district court legal reasoning, it could say the statute rises and falls together. However, the judgment needs to be narrowed a little bit. You need to narrow the judgment. The actual declaratory judgment to those provisions that injure and impact the Plaintiffs. And send the case back.

Under DOJ’s approach, the severability analysis has two phases.

  1. First, the district court declares that the individual mandate is inseverable from the remainder of the ACA. The Declaratory Judgment Act provides the court with jurisdiction to make this declaration.
  2. Second, the district court crafts the remedy: only those portions that injure the plaintiffs can be enjoined. The Declaratory Judgment Act does not provide the court with jurisdiction to issue a remedy, such as in injunction. Rather, the court has to rely on its traditional federal question jurisdiction, which is constrained by Article III. Generally, this second step could be performed alongside with the declaration, but given the unique posture of this case, that role would have to be performed on remand.

I am not aware of any precedent that supports this position–DOJ cites none. Rather, I see this framework as a means to implement the Thomas concurrence. 

In any event, the government is not troubled by the lack of precedent. Why not? Because the Thomas concurrence is premised on a jurisdictional argument. If the position is jurisdictional, then the absence of precedent is not fatal. Indeed, the government was not required to take this position below. To that end, Judge Elrod asked whether the government had advanced this position in the district court (at 1:22:03). It did not. Flientje replied: 

Flientje: We think it is an Article III issue, so yes we did raise it in our brief for the first time, we do think, given that, it would be appropriate to remand to consider the scope of the judgment on that point. We think that’s more of a technical point, because the severability analysis requires looking at the statute altogether. Obviously, there is precedential impact of this court’s decision or a higher court’s decision that could make a lot of sorting out those details unnecessary down the road.

If DOJ is correct, then the correct remedy after a declaration of inseverability is a district court proceeding to determine what provisions injure the individual Plaintiffs. Judge Elrod explored this point in a colloquy with Douglas Letter, the lawyer for the House (at 1:41:30):

Judge Elrod: If we held, hypothetically, that it was severable, we would say the district court, do your best severability in the first instance, take out your blue pencil.

Letter: No, you [that is the 5th Circuit] would do that.

Judge Elrod: Why would we do that? In any other normal case, you would send it back to the district in the first instance to make its best stab at trying to implement the ruling that we made. That would be the normal proceeding in hundred cases that we have this month

Judge Elrod had a similar colloquy with Kyle Hawkins, the Texas Solicitor General: 

Judge Elrod: If the court ruled on the partial summary judgment, and then you have to go back for the relief, the remedy has not been spoken of yet

Hawkins: That’s right. We will go back to district court.

Judge Elrod: You’re not to that process yet. You have a partial summary judgment.

The Fifth Court could also decide whether the plaintiff states have standing in order to allow the District Court to consider whether other provisions of the ACA injure the states. As it stands now, the only parties who were found to have standing were the private plaintiffs. And, without more, the District Court would not consider the states’ injuries. The states, which are also employers, have far greater injuries than the individual plaintiffs would.

If the Fifth Circuit follows DOJ’s approach, and affirms with a limited remand, the odds of the Supreme Court granting certiorari are decreased significantly. There is currently a stay in place, and the government has represented that it will continue enforcing the ACA. There is no urgent rush to review the case until the District Court determines which provisions would in fact have to be enjoined. That process would involve a fact-intensive inquiry, and could take some time. Only when the remedy is defined would the Supreme Court have to take the case. And, that remedy could come following the 2020 election. Moreover, in the interim, Congress could take steps to obviate this problem–the easiest option, of course, would be to simply repeal the individual mandate. There is also the possibility, however, that the Court’s four progressive defensively vote to grant certiorari, to force Chief Justice Roberts to decide this case on the eve of the presidential election. 

 

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Ahead Of Today’s Q2 Numbers, Tesla Model S Registrations Plunge 54% In California

While everybody is focused on total delivery numbers, sales of Tesla’s higher end Model S sedan have taken a huge hit in California, according to the Wall Street Journal. This is likely result of the company focusing heavily on selling its lower priced Model 3. The shift in product mix could wreak further havoc for Tesla’s margins and eventual profitability goals.

This puts financial pressure on Tesla as the cheaper Model 3 is now tasked with trying to make up for falling sales of the higher margin models.

Registrations of new Model S sedans in the second quarter plunged 54% to 1,205 in California. The state is seen as a strong indicator of demand because it is Tesla’s largest US market, representing 40% of all Model S registrations in the country last year.

Musk had built his business on the idea being able to deliver a combined annual total of 100,000 Model S and Model X vehicles. So far, in the first half of this year Tesla has delivered just 29,750 of the units, combined, which is down 33% from 44,100 last year.

Analysts are expecting total deliveries of the two models to drop 30% this year, compared to last year’s 99,400 total.

The plunge also says that the Model S could be losing its luster and may be due for a redesign. Redesigns, of course, require capital, which is at a premium at Tesla. Musk himself said earlier this month that no major refresh of the Model S was on its way. 

Tesla is scheduled to report second-quarter results on Wednesday that could shed more light on the product mix going forward. The company still says it is targeting at least 360,000 total global deliveries this year, which represents a 45% rise from last year.

The cheapest Model S continues to compete with the most expensive Model 3. Until recently, the price difference between the two was just $6,000. Now, it’s about $16,000:

The most expensive Model 3 version now sells for almost $64,000, down from a fully loaded version going for about $69,000. Tesla last week increased the cost of the standard Model S to $79,990. It also effectively lowered the highest-priced version of the Model S to about $113,000 from about $130,000 by making the previous $20,000 Ludicrous Mode upgrade part of the performance version.

David Whiston, an analyst for Morningstar Research Services said: The key is cash flow, and people will look for whether they traded profit for volume in Q2. Also, did they get enough [Model] 3 volume to offset the 21% decline in combined S and X sales.”

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Facebook To Pay Record $5 Billion Fine In FTC Settlement

As extensively leaked in advance, on Wednesday morning Facebook agreed to pay a record $5 billion fine to resolve a long-running federal investigation that has damaged the company’s standing with consumers and clouded its future, and agreed to better police its data-privacy practices,

Under the settlement, Facebook founder and CEO Mark Zuckerberg will be required to certify that the company is in compliance with new privacy strictures, and could be subject to civil and criminal penalties for false certifications.

“The $5 billion penalty against Facebook is the largest ever imposed on any company for violating consumers’ privacy and almost 20 times greater than the largest privacy or data security penalty ever imposed worldwide,” the Federal Trade Commission said in a news release. “It is one of the largest penalties ever assessed by the U.S. government for any violation.”

To many the penalty, which is a fraction of what Facebook makes in one year, was merely a token wristslap, and will do nothing to change the company’s entrenched culture, which in recent months has seen Facebook proactive seek out to censor free speech on its website, especially when it comes from conservative voices.

To be sure, as the WSJ notes, the extent of the fine was blunted by stinging dissents from the two Democrats on the five-member commission, who said the financial penalty was insufficient and the settlement does little to change Facebook’s basic incentives to gather and leverage users’ data.

“The settlement imposes no meaningful changes to the company’s structure or financial incentives, which led to these violations,” commissioner Rohit Chopra said in a statement. “Nor does it include any restrictions on the company’s mass surveillance or advertising tactics.”

“Rather than accepting this settlement, I believe we should have initiated litigation against Facebook and its CEO Mark Zuckerberg,” said commissioner Rebecca Kelly Slaughter.

That, however, was not meant to happen as few in Congress and elsewhere dare to challenge what has become the world’s most powerful media company.

The Republican board majority led by Chairman Joe Simons said that suing Zuckerberg for past violations wouldn’t serve the public interest.

“Mr. Zuckerberg will be held accountable for certifying quarterly—under threat of civil and criminal penalties—that the company’s privacy program is in compliance with the order,” the FTC’s majority wrote. “The relief we have achieved today solves concrete problems, rather than venting frustration with individuals.”

In a separate matter, the SEC was set to announce a settlement with Facebook— including a fine of more than $100 million — over claims it insufficiently warned investors that developers and other third parties may have obtained users’ data without their permission or in violation of Facebook policies, according to a person familiar with the matter. Facebook neither admitted nor denied the SEC’s claims.

The settlement with the FTC requires creation of a new committee of Facebook’s board to monitor the company’s privacy practices. Legal experts said they couldn’t recall prior FTC privacy settlements imposing such a requirement. “If the committee had appropriate authority and was answerable to the FTC, it could have a significant impact,” David Vladeck, a former head of the agency’s consumer protection bureau during the Obama administration, said on Monday before the agreement’s announcement.

The order also requires Facebook to report to the FTC incidents where data of 500 or more users has been compromised, along with the company’s efforts to address the problems, and to deliver the documentation within 30 days.

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Iran’s Military Vows Attack On All Regional US Bases If War Starts

Iran has again rejected the prospect of new negotiations with the White House “under any circumstances,” according to an interview with Supreme Leader Ayotallah Ali Khamenei’s Military Adviser Hossein Dehghan, cited in Al Jazeera.

The Islamic Republic’s top military adviser further warned Iran and its regional allies will target all American bases in the region should the US launch war plans, while reiterating Iran’s ability to block the vital Strait of Hormuz to global oil transit. Everyone must be able to freely transit the Persian Gulf waterway or no one at all, Dehghan warned. 

File photo of US troops in Iraq, via the AP

Yesterday, Iranian vice-president, Eshaq Jahangiri, said that Iran rejects UK-led attempts to establish a “joint European task force” to monitor and patrol the Persian Gulf in order to protect international shipping, countering that it would only bring “insecurity”.

“There is no need to form a coalition because these kinds of coalitions and the presence of foreigners in the region by itself creates insecurity,” he said. And added, “And other than increasing insecurity it will not achieve anything else.” France, Italy, the Netherlands and Denmark indicated Tuesday they would support a European-led naval mission to ensure international vessels’ safe passage in the gulf. 

Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister further informed France directly while in Paris meeting with top French officials including the president, that Iran’s own military forces will “secure” the Strait of Hormuz and will “not allow disturbance in shipping in this sensitive area,” Reuters reported earlier.

Meanwhile, threats and counter threats have continued to fly between London and Tehran, with each demanding the release of their tanker while accusing the other of “piracy”. Early this month the Royal Navy seized the Grace 1, carrying 2 million barrels of oil, off Gibraltar; and in turn Iran last Friday captured the British-flagged Stena Impero in the Strait of Hormuz. 

On Wednesday Iran’s Hassan Rouhani appeared to offer a new deal that could break the stalemate, suggesting that should the UK release the Grace 1, Iran would reciprocate by releasing the Stena Impero. 

“If Britain steps away from the wrong actions in Gibraltar, they will receive an appropriate response from Iran,” Rouhani said Wednesday addressing a weekly cabinet meeting. The words came the same day Britain reportedly sent a mediator to Iran seeking the release of the Stena Impero.

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Watch Live: Robert Mueller Testifies Before Congress

Former Special Counsel Robert Mueller is testifying before two Congressional committees today, offering his first public testimony since submitting his 448-page report on the 2016 US election. Testimony is scheduled to begin in the House Judiciary Committee at 8:30 a.m. to 11:30 a.m., followed by the smaller House Intelligence Committee from noon to 2 p.m. 

Watch live:

Mueller is expected follow guidance from the Justice Department and stick to the ‘four corners’ of his report, and he has made clear that he won’t answer hypothetical questions. That said, as a private citizen there is nothing stopping Mueller from answering questions outside the report. 

What to watch for

House Democrats – looking for anything they can use to launch an impeachment, will undoubtedly focus on having Mueller refute President Trump’s oft-repeated “no collusion, no obstruction” claim. While the Mueller report did not find evidence of collusion, he left the question of obstruction to Attorney General William Barr and former Deputy AG Rod Rosenstein – who found no collusion. 

The Mueller report contains at least 10 alleged acts by Trump that could constitute obstruction of his investigation, which Democrats will likely push for him to elaborate on. 

Mueller may provide fresh momentum for congressional Democrats to open proceedings to impeach the president. Impeachment is an option that House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has resisted so far because of her belief it would prove futile, and politically damaging to her party, unless dramatic new evidence emerges that would lead to Trump’s removal from office by the Republican-controlled Senate. –Bloomberg

Republicans, meanwhile, will likely focus on the origins of the Russia investigation – as well as the anti-Trump text messages exchanged between FBI officials Peter Strzok and Lisa Page, who were key investigators of both Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton. GOP House members will also likely ask about the so-called Steele dossier which contains salacious and unverified allegations about President Trump and his aides. 

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Greek Comedy: 10Y GGB Yield Plunges Below 2% For First Time Ever

For the first time in history, the yield on Greece’s 10Y sovereign bonds dropped below 2.00% – having crashed from around 4.00% at the start of the year – and is below US Treasury debt costs.

Greece’s 10-year yield fell 7bps to a record low of 1.984% (and Greek five-year yield falls 4bps to 1.03%, nearing July 3 record low at 1.028%)

 

Finally, do you think Greek debt ‘deserves’ a sub-2% yield?

Debt doesn’t matter stupid!

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The Article II Executive Power and the Rule of Law (Part III)

This post discusses the Whig executive and the available records of the Constitution’s drafting history.  Those records show that the delegates were familiar with the limited understanding of executive power.  They also support the conclusion that the delegates wanted to give the President that limited form of the power, and drafted accordingly.

On May 29, 1787, Edmund Randolph presented to the Federal Convention several resolutions on behalf of the Virginia delegation.  Two are critical to understanding the Constitution’s executive power.  One proposed to confer on a new “National Legislature” the “legislative rights” then given to Congress by the Articles of Confederation.  The other gave a new “National Executive” a “general authority to execute the national laws” and also “the executive rights vested in Congress by the Confederation.”

On June 2, the Convention turned to the national executive.  According to Madison’s notes, the younger Pinckney of South Carolina stated his support for a vigorous executive, but feared that the powers in the resolution would include peace and war, which would create an elective monarchy.  John Rutledge of South Carolina opposed giving the executive the powers of peace and war.  Roger Sherman of Connecticut said that the executive should be chosen by the legislature, because “he considered the executive magistracy as nothing more than an institution for carrying the will of the legislature into effect.”

James Wilson of Pennsylvania then propounded a Whig-type limited conception of executive power.  He “did not consider the prerogatives of the British monarch as a proper guide in defining the executive powers.  Some of these prerogatives were of a legislative nature.  Among others that of war & peace etc.  The only powers he conceived strictly executive were those of executing the laws, and appointing officers, not {appertaining to and} appointed by the legislature.”  (Braces indicate Madison’s later emendations.)  After some back and forth, the Convention modified the resolution along the lines Wilson supported.  It deleted reference to the executive rights of Congress, and gave the new national executive “power to carry into effect. the national laws. to appoint to offices in cases not otherwise provided for.”

Wilson wanted and got a chief magistrate who would carry out the laws but not have Congress’s “executive rights.”  (As Wilson’s later Lectures on Law show, he had a worked-out view of the Whig executive power.)  How could it make sense to have an executive without executive rights?  Very likely because of a crucial ambiguity in many uses of “executive” that derived from British practice.  The King was chief executive: he administered the government.  He had many other powers too, like deciding on war and peace and making treaties.  Powers of the executive, or executive rights, might mean the powers of the officer in the British system who held the power to carry out the law, including other powers that person held.  Deciding on war was an executive power in that sense but was not within the executive power in Wilson’s sense.  When the delegates rejected the grant of Congress’s executive rights, they decided not to use the powers of the British chief executive as the model of theirs.

Deliberations in the Convention continued through June and July, but the delegates did not reconsider their June 2 vote on the powers of the executive.  At the end of July, the Convention committed its decisions up to that point to the Committee of Detail, which was to produce a draft constitution.  Wilson served on the committee and was probably its scribe.

The Committee of Detail made a verbal change of considerable importance.  Instead of creating an officer called “the executive,” and giving that officer stated powers, the committee adopted the approach now found in Article II.  It created an officer called the President and gave that officer “the executive power.”  Although the move did not completely clear up the ambiguity associated with “executive,” it did move the text in Wilson’s direction.  Calling an officer a President says nothing about the officer’s powers, so those powers must be separately granted.  If the executive power is one but only one of them, that suggests that it is the narrower power to carry out the laws and not the broader collection held by the British officer who performed that function and also, for example, could give pardons.  “The executive” in the British system was unquestionably the monarch, but the “executive power” could refer to only the narrow Whig-type authority, and Wilson at least thought that it did.

Later decisions by the convention increased the power of the President, notably with respect to treaties, but did not affect the executive power.  The ultimate form of Article II’s vesting clause is a slightly modified version of the Committee of Detail’s proposal.  As I have argued, its text and the Constitution’s tripartite system of powers indicate that the clause uses Wilson’s conception of executive power.  The Convention’s decisions (which are much better documented than its debates) indicate that the delegates’ goal was to create a President with the Whig executive power and some additional authority, like making treaties, that had been part of the King’s non-executive power.

In September, the Convention referred its nearly-completed work, based on the report of the Committee of Detail, to the Committee of Style and Arrangement.  The latter committee produced the now-familiar version of the Vesting Clause of Article I, which has figured in debates about Article II.  Article I gives Congress “all legislative powers herein granted,” while Article II gives “the executive power.”  Proponents of a more-than-Whig executive power, like Alexander Hamilton as Pacificus, have relied on the contrast.  The President, they argue, has all executive powers, enumerated and unenumerated, not only those herein granted.

Whether the Committee of Style, or at least Gouverneur Morris of that committee, meant to facilitate that reading is one of the great questions about the Federal Convention.  If the committee had that plan, it was not in response to a recorded choice made by the convention as a whole, like the choice to reject the Virginia Plan’s grant of “executive rights.”  Whatever the committee’s plan may have been, the inference from the contrast between the two Vesting Clauses to a non-Whig executive power is weak.  The King had many powers, and so in Britain there were many powers of the executive, but there is only one executive power.  It may seem multiple because it can interact with all kinds of legal rules that it implements, but in all those interactions it remains itself: the capacity to use the resources of the government to pursue the goals given by the law, subject to the constraints found in the law.  Article II confers no unenumerated executive powers, because like the executive branch, the executive power is unitary.  That power, the capacity to carry out the law, is the executive power James Wilson wanted to give the new chief magistrate.  Wilson proposed that understanding, and there is good reason to conclude that the delegates in general agreed with him and approved language that implemented that decision.

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“Cracks Are Showing”: CAT Shares Slump On Lower Earnings Guidance, Retail Sales Miss

Earnings season always features more than a couple of surprises, and on Wednesday morning, the most shocking numbers were released by two of America’s iconic industrial giants: Boeing and Caterpillar.

But while Boeing shares swiftly recovered from their initial earnings inspired selloff as analysts and algos found some redeeming information in the company’s services and defense business, for shares of CAT, it was mostly a one-way move, as the company, which constitutes 3.4% of the Dow, missed on both the top and bottom line – though the company’s warning that it now sees full-year EPS coming in at the lower end of its range, citing rising costs and falling sales in Asia, is what grabbed investors’ attention.

CAT

It’s the latest sign that the blowback from President Trump’s trade war might be even more severe than many had anticipated. And after the IMF’s dismal economic projections (released yesterday), the results from the global belwether are the second significant sign this week that global economic growth and trade are slowing.

“The increase in manufacturing costs was primarily due to higher material costs, including tariffs, variable labor and burden and warranty expense,” the company said in a statement Wednesday.

Analysts highlighted the whiplash created by CAT’s earnings outlook after several quarters of raising guidance. 

“Cracks are showing,” said BI’s Karen Ubelhart. “Outlook unchanged, but Caterpillar emphasized lower end of forecast after a string of quarters of raising guidance.”

Here are the highlights:

  • Adj EPS: $2.83 (est $3.12)
  • Rev: $14.43B (est $14.45B)
  • Still Sees FY Adj EPS: $12.06-$13.06 (est $13.29)
  • Expects To Be At Lower End Of FY Adj EPS Range

CAT also reported its weakest sales since 2017.

CAT

Twitter wits were quick to crack a few jokes.

But while earnings this season have been broadly better than anticipated, will CAT’s struggles factor into the FOMC’s rate-hike thinking next week?

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2Z8y5RW Tyler Durden

Plunging Boeing Revenue Misses By $5 Billion, Resulting In Q2 Cash Burn, Shocking Quarterly Loss

With the storm clouds over the grounded 737 MAX gathering patiently for the past 5 months, it was only a matter of time before the torrential downpour arrived, which it did just before 730am, when Boeing reported shocking numbers, with Q2 EPS printing at a stunning loss of $5.82, far below the expected profit of $1.98 per share and last year’s profit of $3.33 with revenue plunging 35% Y/Y to $15.75BN, some $5 billion below the expected $20.45 billion.

The company listed the following reasons for this surprising loss:

  • Recorded lower BCA revenue and operating earnings due to fewer 737 deliveries
  • Booked $4.9B after-tax charge related to estimated potential concessions and other considerations
  • Included $1.7B increased costs to produce aircraft in the 737 program accounting quantity

The 737 MAX fiasco meant that Boeing actually tipped into cash flow negative, reporting $600 million in cash burn, a far cry from the $4.68BN a year ago, while the company’s backlog dropped 2.9% to $474 billion.

Trying to put some lipstick on the pig, Boeing said it delivered 90 airplanes, including 42 787s, and noted that it had received a letter of intent from IAG for 200 737 MAX planes.

Commenting on the ongoing 737 MAX troubles, Boeing said that “disciplined development and testing is underway and we will submit the final software package to the FAA once we have satisfied all of their certification requirements.” Boeing also remains “focused on 737 MAX safe return to service; results significantly impacted.”

For now, and until there is clarity on the future of the 737 MAX, Boeing pulled all forecasts, saying that the previously issued 2019 financial guidance does not reflect 737 MAX impacts, and that due to uncertainty of timing and conditions on 737 MAX return to service, new guidance will be issued at future date. This is what the company said:

“Due to the uncertainty of the timing and conditions surrounding return to service of the 737 MAX fleet, new guidance will be issued at a future date. Boeing is working very closely with the FAA on the process they have laid out to certify the 737 MAX software update and safely return the MAX to service. Disciplined development and testing is underway and we will submit the final software package to the FAA once we have satisfied all of their certification requirements. Regulatory authorities will determine the process for certifying the MAX software and training updates as well as the timing for lifting the grounding order.”

The silver lining, of course, is that Boeing is also a bullish bet on war, and at least in that regard it did not disappoint, as sales in the offense “defense” unit rose 8% to $6.6 billion. As Bloomberg notes, no surprise that that would be up if you’ve been paying attention to other earnings this week, as Pentagon contractors Lockheed Martin, United Technologies and Northrop Grumman all beat expectations.

Meanwhile, even as Boeing’s net cash balance prudently rose by $2 billion, its debt increased by a far more ominous $4.7 billion, which will be a problem now that Fitch, and soon other rating agencies, are preparing to cut Boeing from single A and push it into the triple Bs.

In kneejerk reaction, Boeing shares – which have the highest weighing in the Dow Jones – tumbled as much as 1.8% before regaining much of their early losses.

Boeing’s full Q2 invester presentation is below

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The Article II Executive Power and the Rule of Law (Part III)

This post discusses the Whig executive and the available records of the Constitution’s drafting history.  Those records show that the delegates were familiar with the limited understanding of executive power.  They also support the conclusion that the delegates wanted to give the President that limited form of the power, and drafted accordingly.

On May 29, 1787, Edmund Randolph presented to the Federal Convention several resolutions on behalf of the Virginia delegation.  Two are critical to understanding the Constitution’s executive power.  One proposed to confer on a new “National Legislature” the “legislative rights” then given to Congress by the Articles of Confederation.  The other gave a new “National Executive” a “general authority to execute the national laws” and also “the executive rights vested in Congress by the Confederation.”

On June 2, the Convention turned to the national executive.  According to Madison’s notes, the younger Pinckney of South Carolina stated his support for a vigorous executive, but feared that the powers in the resolution would include peace and war, which would create an elective monarchy.  John Rutledge of South Carolina opposed giving the executive the powers of peace and war.  Roger Sherman of Connecticut said that the executive should be chosen by the legislature, because “he considered the executive magistracy as nothing more than an institution for carrying the will of the legislature into effect.”

James Wilson of Pennsylvania then propounded a Whig-type limited conception of executive power.  He “did not consider the prerogatives of the British monarch as a proper guide in defining the executive powers.  Some of these prerogatives were of a legislative nature.  Among others that of war & peace etc.  The only powers he conceived strictly executive were those of executing the laws, and appointing officers, not {appertaining to and} appointed by the legislature.”  (Braces indicate Madison’s later emendations.)  After some back and forth, the Convention modified the resolution along the lines Wilson supported.  It deleted reference to the executive rights of Congress, and gave the new national executive “power to carry into effect. the national laws. to appoint to offices in cases not otherwise provided for.”

Wilson wanted and got a chief magistrate who would carry out the laws but not have Congress’s “executive rights.”  (As Wilson’s later Lectures on Law show, he had a worked-out view of the Whig executive power.)  How could it make sense to have an executive without executive rights?  Very likely because of a crucial ambiguity in many uses of “executive” that derived from British practice.  The King was chief executive: he administered the government.  He had many other powers too, like deciding on war and peace and making treaties.  Powers of the executive, or executive rights, might mean the powers of the officer in the British system who held the power to carry out the law, including other powers that person held.  Deciding on war was an executive power in that sense but was not within the executive power in Wilson’s sense.  When the delegates rejected the grant of Congress’s executive rights, they decided not to use the powers of the British chief executive as the model of theirs.

Deliberations in the Convention continued through June and July, but the delegates did not reconsider their June 2 vote on the powers of the executive.  At the end of July, the Convention committed its decisions up to that point to the Committee of Detail, which was to produce a draft constitution.  Wilson served on the committee and was probably its scribe.

The Committee of Detail made a verbal change of considerable importance.  Instead of creating an officer called “the executive,” and giving that officer stated powers, the committee adopted the approach now found in Article II.  It created an officer called the President and gave that officer “the executive power.”  Although the move did not completely clear up the ambiguity associated with “executive,” it did move the text in Wilson’s direction.  Calling an officer a President says nothing about the officer’s powers, so those powers must be separately granted.  If the executive power is one but only one of them, that suggests that it is the narrower power to carry out the laws and not the broader collection held by the British officer who performed that function and also, for example, could give pardons.  “The executive” in the British system was unquestionably the monarch, but the “executive power” could refer to only the narrow Whig-type authority, and Wilson at least thought that it did.

Later decisions by the convention increased the power of the President, notably with respect to treaties, but did not affect the executive power.  The ultimate form of Article II’s vesting clause is a slightly modified version of the Committee of Detail’s proposal.  As I have argued, its text and the Constitution’s tripartite system of powers indicate that the clause uses Wilson’s conception of executive power.  The Convention’s decisions (which are much better documented than its debates) indicate that the delegates’ goal was to create a President with the Whig executive power and some additional authority, like making treaties, that had been part of the King’s non-executive power.

In September, the Convention referred its nearly-completed work, based on the report of the Committee of Detail, to the Committee of Style and Arrangement.  The latter committee produced the now-familiar version of the Vesting Clause of Article I, which has figured in debates about Article II.  Article I gives Congress “all legislative powers herein granted,” while Article II gives “the executive power.”  Proponents of a more-than-Whig executive power, like Alexander Hamilton as Pacificus, have relied on the contrast.  The President, they argue, has all executive powers, enumerated and unenumerated, not only those herein granted.

Whether the Committee of Style, or at least Gouverneur Morris of that committee, meant to facilitate that reading is one of the great questions about the Federal Convention.  If the committee had that plan, it was not in response to a recorded choice made by the convention as a whole, like the choice to reject the Virginia Plan’s grant of “executive rights.”  Whatever the committee’s plan may have been, the inference from the contrast between the two Vesting Clauses to a non-Whig executive power is weak.  The King had many powers, and so in Britain there were many powers of the executive, but there is only one executive power.  It may seem multiple because it can interact with all kinds of legal rules that it implements, but in all those interactions it remains itself: the capacity to use the resources of the government to pursue the goals given by the law, subject to the constraints found in the law.  Article II confers no unenumerated executive powers, because like the executive branch, the executive power is unitary.  That power, the capacity to carry out the law, is the executive power James Wilson wanted to give the new chief magistrate.  Wilson proposed that understanding, and there is good reason to conclude that the delegates in general agreed with him and approved language that implemented that decision.

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