Month: September 2019

Submitted by RanSquawk

Tomorrow, at 13:45am CET (7:45am ET) the will unveil its Draghi “Swan Song” Monetary Policy Decision, with a press conference Due At 13:30BST, (08:30ET)

• Surveyed analysts look for the ECB to cut the deposit rate by 10bps with the Main Refi and Marginal Lending rates seen unchanged
• Markets currently price in around a 40% chance of a deeper cut to the deposit rate of 20bps
• Focus will be on any potential complimentary easing measures alongside expected rate reductions
• ECB staff economic projections will likely reflect the downbeat prospects for the Eurozone economy

INTRODUCTION

Will outgoing ECB president Mario Draghi’s “swan song” decision – the one in which he is widely expected to cut rates deeper into negative territory and resume sovereign and/or corporate QE – be a bazooka or a waster pistol? That’s the question.

Markets currently fully price in a 10bps reduction in the deposit rate to -0.5% with just over a 40% chance of a deeper cut of 20bps.

Of the 70 economists polled by Reuters, around a quarter look for a 20bps reduction with the remainder looking for 10bps. Elsewhere, the survey noted that almost 90% of respondents expected a resumption of bond purchases as of October with a touted monthly amount of EUR 30bln”. In order to mitigate the impact of deeper negative rates on the Eurozone banking sector, around 90% of those surveyed look for some form of tiering system.

BACKGROUND

• PREVIOUS MEETING: Policymakers opted to stand pat on rates, however, the Bank paved the way for an eventual rate cut by tweaking its forward guidance on rates to include an “or lower” option. Furthermore, the Governing Council tasked the relevant Euro system Committees with examining options, including ways to reinforce forward guidance on policy rates, the design of a tiered rate system, and options for the size and composition of potential new net asset purchases. Draghi suggested that a rebound in the second half of the year looks “less likely” with the outlook looking “worse and worse”. Draghi suggested there was a broad discussion with “broad convergence” to the decision whilst noting that some board members had reservations about a two-tiered rate system. It was also revealed that no discussion took place on an imminent rate cut or the size of such a prospective move.
• ECB MINUTES: The account from the July meeting echoed the tone struck in the press conference which underpinned the Bank’s decision to pave the way for an eventual rate cut as well as other prospective easing measures. This was exemplified by policymakers’ view that the slowdown is seen as more protracted than previously thought with downside risks more pervasive. Furthermore, from an inflation perspective, “the recent declines in both actual inflation and longer-term inflation expectations were “a matter of concern”. With this in mind, members “broadly supported the proposal made by Chief Economist Lane to task the relevant Eurosystem Committees with examining options for future policy measures”. In terms of the scope and sequencing of potential further measures, the account noted “experience had shown that a policy package – such as the combination of rate cuts and asset purchases – was more effective than a sequence of selective actions”. However, “Some concerns were raised regarding possible unintended consequences of a tiered system and its ability to fully mitigate the potential effects of negative policy rates on bank intermediation”.
• ECB RHETORIC: Finland’s Rehn set the stage for the September meeting by suggesting that the Bank needs to deliver a “significant and meaningful” easing package this month, adding that it is better to overshoot than undershoot on stimulus. VP de Guindos took a slightly different stance and instead argued that the central bank must base its decisions on macroeconomic data, and be critical of market expectations, albeit, conceded that the ECB must act with “determination”. Incoming ECB chief Lagarde (not sitting President at the September meeting), stated that the Bank has not hit the lower bound on interest rates, adding that the ECB has the tools to tackle a downturn, and must be ready to use them. Elsewhere, hawks at the ECB have been vocal with Klaas Knot from the Netherlands suggesting there is no need to resume a QE program at present, adding that market expectations for the September meeting are overdone. Germany’s Lautenschlaeger added additional weight to the hawkish argument by stating that it is much too early for a huge package; a viewpoint that was later echoed by newly appointed Müller from Austria.
• SOURCE REPORTS: Following the July meeting, sources indicated that a deposit rate cut in September is almost certain, whilst more government bond buys and guidance change is also likely, policymakers still need to be convinced about the tiering system and purchases of stocks and bank bonds are seen as a non-starter. Thereafter, sources last week suggested policymakers are leaning towards a rate cut and tiering and reinforced guidance. In terms of bond buys, the report noted that many support QE, but opposition from some northern states complicates the discussion, additionally policymakers believe they have room for around 1yr of QE using flexibility under existing rules and there is no immediate need to change the issuer limit.
• DATA: Eurozone inflation remains well below the ECB’s targeted level with Y/Y CPI for Aug at 1.0%, core at 1.1% and super-core 0.9%. Q2 GDP figures were confirmed at 0.2% Q/Q and 1.2% Y/Y. Eurozone composite PMI rose to 51.9 from 51.5 with the report noting “The picture remains very mixed both by sector and country, highlighting how downside risks persist. A fierce manufacturing downturn, fuelled by deteriorating exports and most intensely felt in Germany, continues to be offset by resilient growth in the service sector, in turn propped up to a large extent by solid consumer spending in domestic markets”.

CURRENT ECB FORWARD GUIDANCE (INTRODUCTORY STATEMENT)

• RATES: We expect them to remain at their present or lower levels at least through the first half of 2020, and in any case for as long as necessary to ensure the continued sustained convergence of inflation to our aim over the medium term. (Jul 25th)
• ASSET PURCHASES: We intend to continue reinvesting, in full, the principal payments from maturing securities purchased under the asset purchase programme for an extended period of time past the date when we start raising the key ECB interest rates, and in any case for as long as necessary to maintain favourable liquidity conditions and an ample degree of monetary accommodation. (Jul 25th)
• GROWTH/TRADE: The risks surrounding the euro area growth outlook remain tilted to the downside, reflecting the prolonged presence of uncertainties, related to geopolitical factors, the rising threat of protectionism, and vulnerabilities in emerging market. (July 25th)
• INFLATION: Looking through the recent volatility due to temporary factors, measures of underlying inflation remain generally muted. Indicators of inflation expectations have declined. While labour cost pressures have strengthened and broadened amid high levels of capacity utilisation and tightening labour markets, the pass-through of cost pressures to inflation is taking longer than previously anticipated. (Jul 25th)
• TIERED RATES: The Governing Council has tasked the relevant Eurosystem Committees with examining options, including…mitigating measures, such as the design of a tiered system for reserve remuneration. (Jul 25th)

POTENTIAL ACTIONS/ADJUSTMENTS TO ECB FORWARD GUIDANCE (INTRODUCTORY STATEMENT)

• RATES: As a reminder, Markets currently fully price in a 10bps reduction in the deposit rate to -0.5% with just over a 40% chance of a 20bps cut. Of the 70 economists polled by Reuters, around a quarter look for a 20bps cut with the remainder looking for 10bps. Any adjustments to forward guidance on rates will be contingent on the extent to which rates are lowered and thus potential tweaks to forward guidance remains unclear. That said, one option for the Governing Council could be to remove the “at least through the first half of 2020” time dependent element of the statement whilst leaving the door open to further rate reductions. Additionally, Morgan Stanley float the idea of a ‘chained’ guidance approach whereby policymakers could establish “at least through the first half of 2020”, i.e., a direct link between the rate path and QE, with no hike whatsoever until after the horizon of net asset purchases”.
• ASSET PURCHASES: Almost 90% of respondents to a Reuters survey expect a resumption of bond purchases as of October with a touted monthly amount of EUR 30bln. The expectations surrounding asset purchases are relatively wide-ranging given the lack of specific guidance from ECB members and the potential options that policymakers face (i.e. size, duration and start date). For example, ABN AMRO look for a package of EUR 70bln a month for 12 months, with the Dutch Bank suggesting that anything less than this would make it very difficult for the ECB to “close the gap between the ECB’s projection for inflation at the end of 2021 and the ECB’s inflation aim”. Conversely, RBC “do not forecast the ECB to announce a QE restart at the forthcoming meeting in September, but expect that they will leave this option firmly on the table for future meetings to decide”. Therefore, it is difficult to gauge how exactly the market will react to a specific programme from the ECB (should one be announced), however, the above-mentioned Reuters survey will likely act as an approximate benchmark for the market. Another issue for policymakers in designing such a programme is the issue of scarcity, upon which HSBC suggest that the issuer limit could be raised to 50% from 33%, allowing “a little over three years of QE before constraints start to bind”. In terms of overall composition, UBS suggest that such a package would likely comprise of ABS, covered bonds, corporates and supra-nationals with the Swiss bank pouring cold water the prospect of bank bonds or equities. As with forward guidance on rates, any tweaks to the Bank’s communications surrounding asset purchases will be dependent on what (if anything) is unveiled at the 1245BST announcement.
• GROWTH/TRADE: Risks are still expected to be seen as tilted to the downside given the lack of clear improvement in the region’s growth prospects since the July meeting and ongoing threats from protectionism. The previous meeting saw policymakers dampen expectations of a H2 rebound, something which will likely be reflected in the staff economic projections as discussed below.
• INFLATION: Given August inflation metrics, measures of underlying inflation are still likely to be classified as “muted”. The region’s inflation prospects will be detailed in the staff’s economic projections (as discussed below). Another potential talking point could be any work carried out on the Bank’s efforts to revamp its inflation goal, something that was flagged ahead of the prior meeting. This subject was also covered by incoming ECB President Lagarde who recently said she wishes to examine the Bank’s mandate. With this in mind, this matter might be something more for the Lagarde-era, rather than an announcement at Draghi’s last meeting.
• TIERED RATES: Given the almost certain prospect of even deeper negative rates in the Eurozone, the idea of a tiered rate system has been a key talking point for markets given the perceived requirement to protect bank profitability in the region. In the previous policy statement it was revealed that Eurosystem Committees had been tasked with examining potential options on this front. However, the account from that meeting revealed “Some concerns were raised regarding possible unintended consequences of a tiered system and its ability to fully mitigate the potential effects of negative policy rates on bank intermediation”. That said, last week’s source reports suggested that any rate reduction will likely be accompanied by tiering and since, a rate reduction (whether it be 10 or 20bps) is fully priced in, markets will be looking for the details of such a programme or at least to what extent the work of the Eurosystem Committees’ has progressed. In terms of what a potential system could look like, HSBC (who suggest there is no obvious format) floats the idea of a Swissstyle system where banks no longer have to pay the negative deposit rate on some of their excess reserves (determined by a multiple of their required reserves). Alternatively, a ‘Danish’ system could be adopted which applied ‘bank-by-bank thresholds’, however, HSBC highlights that this could be logistically complex for the ECB given that there are over 5000 banks in the Eurozone. SGH Macro suspect that any potential system will be limited (given the impact of negative rates isn’t necessarily a core issue for the Eurozone banking system) and “could be tied to metrics that would ensure that the banks that do receive relief are in turn doing their part in lending money out into the system”. Overall, it remains unclear what system, if any, could be announced however, a lack of action to mitigate the potential consequences of deeper negative rates for Eurozone banks at this stage would likely be seen as a negative for the sector given current communications.

PRESS CONFERENCE

In terms of the press conference (1330BST), the focus for Draghi’s opening remarks and line of questioning from journalists will likely centre around what measures (if any)/tweaks are unveiled at the policy announcement (1245BST), all of which have been discussed above. Should some of the measures (e.g. tiered rates) the markets have been looking for ahead of the meeting, not be unveiled this week, this will likely be a line of questioning for the Q&A section of the press conference, whilst Draghi would also likely outline the conditions needed for such measures to be announced. However, without knowing what is to be released at 1245BST ahead of the press conference, it is difficult to hypothesize on the exact focus of the press conference.

As ever, investors will be looking for specifics as to how policymakers classify the Eurozone’s growth prospects, however, such concerns/views will be largely reflected in the accompanying staff economic projections (released during the press conference).

As such, one of the more interesting aspects of the press conference, given the recent hawkish rhetoric from some members of the Governing Council, will be the unanimity of any decision taken. If the decision was seen to be largely unanimous, this could offer some reassurances to markets that the Bank will implement all the resources they can to reach their inflation mandate, whilst a lack of unanimity and hawkish dissent could suggest that room for further easing is limited. If markets were disappointed by the 1245BST announcement then such an outcome could see a particularly negative interpretation of the Bank’s efforts to stabilise the Eurozone economy.

Finally, parts of the Q&A section could centre around the need for fiscal measures to compliment monetary actions, something which Draghi has called for in the past. However, the ECB President will likely stop short of commenting on specific touted efforts by Eurozone governments such as Germany and Italy. Furthermore, this will likely be more of a focus for the Lagarde era at the Bank given her role in the IMF and relationships with various governments across the world.

ECONOMIC PROJECTIONS

• Growth: Expectations surrounding Eurozone growth projections will be contingent on the policy package announced at 1245BST. Danske Bank (who look for a comprehensive easing package), suggest that the deterioration in the global economy since the prior round of projections in June will hamper the ECB’s ability to provide a “growth scenario where the economic momentum gains speed in the near term”. With this in mind, Danske look for across the board cuts for 2019-2021 with 2020 trimmed by 0.3pp to 1.1%. RBC take a slightly more favourable approach and look for little changes to the Eurozone’s growth prospects given sharp adjustments lower in March and June and deem it unlikely that the ECB will follow suit once again this month.
• Inflation: Recent inflation metrics in the Eurozone have clearly disappointed and will raise cause for concern at the ECB. HSBC highlights that “The ECB was looking for headline inflation at 1.5% y-o-y in 2Q and 1.1% in 3Q, while it was 1.4% in 2Q and is on track for 0.9% in 3Q”, based on HSBC forecasts. In terms of the underlying assumptions for the projections, HSBC back their view for lower inflation forecasts by noting the circa 15% fall in oil prices for the year and overall relatively unchanged EUR on a trade-weight basis. RBC concur that near-term inflation forecasts will likely be lowered. However, further out, EUR and oil prices will play second-fiddle to the Eurozone’s encouraging wage growth prospects and thus look for unchanged readings for 2020 and 2021.

Please see below for an overview of Danske Bank’s expectations for the ECB’s staff economic projections.

MARKET REACTION

Please see below for ING’s ECB Scenario Analysis

Authored by Catte Black via Off-Guardian.org,

On 9/11 2001 three steel-framed high-rise buildings collapsed completely at near free-fall speed allegedly due to fires – which, if true, makes them the only steel-framed high-rises in construction history to have ever done this. Only two of these buildings had been struck by planes.

The official explanation for this event is that Muslim terrorists somehow confounded all the usual security procedures and ‘attacked America’ because they ‘hated our freedoms.’

This version of the meaning behind 9/11 was the catalyst for the perpetual war currently being waged, the ultimate fail-safe irrefutable argument to silence criticism of the Patriot Act, Guantanamo and the creeping emergence of fascism in the Western world.

A narrative as crucial as that needs to be closely examined, but the mainstream media has not only failed to perform this function, it has successfully persuaded many intelligent people that it doesn’t need to be done, and that only lunatics would bother subjecting the official story to any examination.

Eighteen years ago the idea of large scale false flags or government deceptions may have seemed absurd to most of us. But the unraveling of so many official narratives in recent years; the lies over WMDs, the lies over Ghouta, the lies over Libya and Ukraine, the repeat evidence for wholesale manipulation, if not fabrication, of events to promote war, means it ought to be impossible for any thinking person to simply take the events of 9/11 on trust any more.

How can any of us continue to question everything 9/11 has brought us, but not question 9/11 itself?

It all comes down to some very  basic questions:

• Has the government sufficiently explained its version of events?

• Does this version fit the observed facts better than any other?

The fact this is still considered by so many intelligent people to be an “out there” thing to do speaks volumes about how much even the most savvy of us are currently brainwashed.

But beyond the media silence, complicity and ridicule things are changing.

• Today New York first responders are launching a campaign for a new inquiry into the events of 9/11. 

• A new scientific study finds fired did not bring down WTC7.

• The Lawyers’ Committee for 9/11 Inquiry are working on behalf of victims’ families to get justice for those who died or were injured that day.

The phrase “conspiracy theorist” is an empty meme invented to deter enquiry. We don’t think this is a good thing and we don’t intend to be controlled by it. We believe facts really should be sacred – however unpopular they may be and whatever label someone may have attached to them.

What doesn’t cost $15 an hour and talk back to customers? AI. 

McDonald’s announced on Tuesday the acquisition of Mountain View-based voice tech startup Apprente in order to integrate its technology into the food chain’s drive-thrus, according to Engadget. Apprente employees will form the company’s new Silicon Valley “McD Tech Labs” which McDonald’s intends to expand over time. 

The AI can handle “complex, multilingual, multi-accent and multi-item conversational ordering,” allowing for “faster, simpler and more accurate order taking,” according to the report, while McDonald’s claims the new software is part of a company effort to “alleviate pressure on restaurant employees,” who currently have to decipher what customers want. 

Apprente will form a pivotal part of McD Tech Labs, a new restaurant technology group based in Silicon Valley. The Apprente team will become the group’s founding members and co-founder Itamar Arel will serve as vice-president. “McDonald’s commitment to innovation has long inspired our team. It was quite clear from our various engagements that McDonald’s is leading the industry with technology” said Itamar Arel, Ph.D., co-founder of Apprente and Vice President of McD Tech Labs. “Apprente was borne out of an opportunity to use technology to solve challenging real world problems and we’re thrilled to now apply this to creating personalized experiences for customers and crew.” The company is planning on hiring more engineers, data scientists and other advanced technology experts to build its presence in Silicon Valley. – Engadget

McDonald’s plans to roll out self-service kiosks across all US restaurant locations by 2020 – reducing the need to employ as many human cashiers. 

In April, the company acquired personalized data startup Dynamic Yield in order to customize drive-thru menus based on the time of day, weather, current restaurant traffic and trending items. A minority stake was also purchased in New Zealand-based mobile app technology company Plexure. 

Authored by Mac Slavo via SHTFplan.com,

The authoritarian dystopian future has been here for a while now, but this is simply more evidence of humanity’s disregard for freedom and independence. The United States government has demanded that Apple and Google (who are both politically biased towards the left) hand over any information they have on gun owners in the USSA.

The U.S. Government is asking Apple and Google to hand over information on gun owners who have a scope on their rifles and use an app called Obsidian 4. The Obsidian 4 app “allows gun owners to get a live stream, take video and calibrate their gun scope from an Android or iPhone device,” according to the report. Forbes reported that the Department of Justice filed “an application for a court order” on September 5, 2019, the goal of which is to have information released on Obsidian 4 users.

This would essentially impact about, 10,000 gun owners across the USSA.

Never before has a case been disclosed in which American investigators demanded personal data of users of a single app from Apple and Google. And never has an order been made public where the feds have asked the Silicon Valley giants for info on so many thousands of people in one go. –Forbes

If you still are delusional and somehow believe you’re living in the “land of the free,” think again.  It’s time to open your eyes and see what the U.S. government has become: one of the largest slave plantations on earth.  Things are getting ugly very quickly now, folks.

Forbes indicated that the information is being sought is to supposedly aid Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) in tracking illegal exports of a night vision scope made by American Technologies Network Corp. But Edin Omanovic, who is with Privacy International’s State Surveillance program, says the information grab means “innocent people’s personal data” will be released to the government. Omanovic warned that the type of orders sought by the DOJ “need to be based on suspicion and be particularized,” but the attempt to gather information from Apple and Google is not.

This is a major invasion of privacy and a massive human rights violation.  The U.S. government no longer has limits to the extent they will go to in order to keep people under its control. The country is not far from complete totalitarianism at this point.

As SHTFPlan previously detailed, the Trump administration was “considering a proposal that would use Google, Amazon, and Apple to collect data on users who exhibit characteristics of mental illness that could lead to violent behavior.” Such information would then reportedly be used in decisions on who should and should not be allowed to buy/possess firearms. According to Breitbart, The Daily Caller cited a Washington Post report that showed the data collection would fall under the auspices of “a new agency called the Health Advanced Research Projects Agency or HARPA.”

Make no mistake: the government is coming for your guns.  It’s obvious now.

Not content to let problem-students hold the entire class back until they’re sent home, California governor Gavin Newsom on Monday signed into law Senate Bill 419, prohibiting the suspension of disruptive kids by both public and charter schools.

The new law (SB 419) which goes into effect July 1, 2020 will permanently prohibit ‘willful defiance’ suspensions in grades four and five, and will ban such suspensions in grades six through eight for five years, according to the Sacramento Bee. 

So that shitty, unparented, future inmate blowing spitballs at the chalkboard all day can’t get sent home no matter how disruptive they are. 

Why? Because it’s ‘discriminatory’ to suspend troublemakers, of course! 

“I strongly believe that SB 419 will bring justice to California youth by eliminating suspensions for disruption and defiance, putting an end to discriminatory discipline policies and instituting restorative justice practices,” said civil rights activist Dolores Huerta. 

Opposed to the bill was the Charter School Development Center, whose executive director said that SB419 is a “one size fits all” measure that is “a fix in search of a problem.” 

Maybe students like these just need a time-out in detention?

Enjoy this wholesome video of an AMERICAN school.
That is a teacher btw getting jumped by two students. pic.twitter.com/8AfHyuEPLA

— anslo garrick (@badluck_jones) September 6, 2019

 

Authored by Walter Williams, op-ed via Townhall.com,

Just when we thought colleges could not spout loonier ideas, we have a new one from American University.

They hired a professor to teach other professors to grade students based on their “labor” rather than their writing ability.

The professor that American University hired to teach that nonsense is Asao B. Inoue, who is a professor at the University of Washington in Tacoma in interdisciplinary arts and sciences. He is also the director of the university’s writing center. Inoue believes that a person’s writing ability should not be assessed, in order to promote “anti-racist” objectives. Inoue taught American University’s faculty members that their previous practices of grading writing promoted white language supremacy. Inoue thinks that students should be graded on the effort they put into a project.

The idea to bring such a professor to American University, where parents and students fork over $48,459 a year in tuition charges, could not have been something thought up by saner members of its academic community. Instead, it was probably the result of deep thinking by the university’s diversity and campus life officials. Inoue’s views are not simply extreme but possibly hostile to the academic mission of most universities. Forgiving and ignoring a students’ writing ability would mostly affect black students. White students’ speaking and writing would be judged against the King’s English, defined as standard, pure or correct English grammar.

Professor Noam Chomsky, called the father of modern linguistics, formulated the generative theory of language. According to his theory, the most basic form of language is a set of syntactic rules that is universal for all humans and that underlies the grammar of all human languages. We analyze and interpret our environment with words and sentences in a structured language. Oral and written language provides a set of rules that enables us to organize thoughts and construct logical meaning with our thoughts.

Not holding students accountable to proper grammar does a disservice to those students who overall show poor writing abilities. When or if these students graduate from college, they are not going to be evaluated in their careers by Inoue’s tailored standards. They will be judged according to their objective abilities, and it probably follows that if they fail to meet those objective standards, the standards themselves will be labeled as racist.

There’s another very dangerous bit of academic nonsense happening, this time at the K-12 level of education.

One America News Network anchor interviewed Mary Clare Amselem, education specialist at the Heritage Foundation, about the California Department of Education’s proposed ethnic studies curriculum. The proposed ethnic studies curriculum would teach children that capitalism and father figures are racist.

The Ethnic Studies Model Curriculum also includes gross anti-Israel bias and teaches about a Palestinian-led anti-Israel initiative called Boycott, Divestment and Sanctions. The curriculum also has students study issues of police brutality and asks teachers to find incidents of bias by police in their own communities. According to an article by Shelby Talcott in The Stream, California’s proposed curriculum called for students to study lawmakers such as Democratic Minnesota Rep. Ilhan Omar and Democratic Michigan Rep. Rashida Tlaib, both of whom have supported the BDS movement and have been accused of anti-Semitic rhetoric.

The proposed ethnic studies proposal has been removed from the California Department of Education website. House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., said, “While I am relieved that California made the obvious decision to revisit this wholly misguided proposal, we need to know why and how a blatantly anti-Semitic, anti-Israel, factually inaccurate curriculum made its way through the ranks of California’s Department of Education.” He added, “This was not simply an oversight — the California Department of Education’s attempt to institutionalize anti-Semitism is not only discriminatory and intolerant, it’s dangerous.”

Brainwashing our youngsters is a serious matter. The people responsible for the California Department of Education’s proposal ought to be summarily fired.

Just hours after China, as a gesture of goodwill, waived tariffs on 16 types of US goods in a clear attempt to sweeten trade talks, a move which clearly was not lost on the US president, moments ago Trump said he was delaying a 5% increase in tariffs on Chinese goods by two weeks, supposedly out of respect for the celebration of the 70th anniversary of the revolution that brought the communist government to power.

“At the request of the Vice Premier of China, Liu He, and due to the fact that the People’s Republic of China will be celebrating their 70th Anniversary on October 1st, we have agreed, as a gesture of good will, to move the increased Tariffs on 250 Billion Dollars worth of goods (25% to 30%), from October 1st to October 15th,” Trump tweeted at7;17pm.

….on October 1st, we have agreed, as a gesture of good will, to move the increased Tariffs on 250 Billion Dollars worth of goods (25% to 30%), from October 1st to October 15th.

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) September 11, 2019

While Trump claimed that the move was out of respect for the Chinese National Day holiday, it is far more likely an in kind response to China’s announcement that a range of U.S. goods would be exempted from 25% extra tariffs put in place last year.

The delay comes into place just 11 days after a new round of tariffs kicked into place, and followed an escalation of the U.S.-China trade war in August when Trump announced an increase in the tariffs on $250 billion in Chinese goods to 30% from 25% starting Oct. 1.

The nations are scheduled to hold two rounds of face-to-face negotiations in Washington in coming weeks with the first this month and the second in early October with a visit from He.

The news sent S&P Emini futures surging by 0.6%, or up 17 points, to 3,020, just 7 points away from the July 26 all time high, and the Dow up over 140 points…

… sending the Dow back to where it was when Trump suffered his tariff tantrum at the end of July…

… with the Nasdaq…

… and the Yuan also sharply higher.

In the process roundtripping back to where the yuan was before China announced its retaliation to the latest round of US sanctions.

At this rate, the S&P will be at its all time highs by the open tomorrow, which means that next Thursday the Fed will cut rates by 25 bps with the US stock market at fresh all time highs…. unless of course, the Fed sees today’s de-escalation as a key transition in the trade war and decides to delay rate cuts. Which, however, it won’t as otherwise – with the ECB set to cut tomorrow and restart QE – Trump will show up at the Marriner Eccles building with a flamethrower and burn the whole place down.

In a report that seems like it was timed to coincide with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s decision to launch the federal election campaign on Wednesday, the Globe and Mail, the Canadian newspaper that initially blew the lid off what would become the SNC-Lavalin corruption scandal, has published its latest bombshell on that topic.

According to the paper, Trudeau’s liberal government has blocked attempts by the Royal Canadian Mounted Police to look into potential obstruction of justice in the SNC-Lavalin affair. Trudeau refused to lift cabinet confidentiality for all witnesses, seriously limiting the ability of the RCMP to investigate.

Some of the G&M’s sources said they were instructed not to discuss issues related to the scandal with police officials.

Ottawa blocks RCMP on SNC-Lavalin inquiry – The Globe and Mail #SNCLavalin #cdnpoli #elex43 https://t.co/ND65by97Nb

— Robert Fife (@RobertFife) September 11, 2019

Earlier in the year, Ethics Commissioner Mario Dion reportedly faced similar stonewalling during his own independent inquiry into the affair – wherein Trudeau allegedly pushed out his Justice Minister and Attorney General after she refused to offer a non prosecution agreement to an engineering firm based in Trudeau’s home province. Trudeau worried that if the prosecution continued, and the firm was forced to close, he might lose critical support in his home district.

The RCMP were reportedly investigating serious claims that Trudeau obstructed justice.

One former RCMP commissioner said the investigation was stuck in a difficult position since the privilege at the cabinet level is “pretty strong.”

“If [the RCMP] were serious enough, they would probably get a search warrant, but that would probably be shot down by the courts. The privilege is pretty strong at the cabinet level,” said former commissioner of the RCMP, Bob Paulson.

Trudeau and his party are hoping that most Canadian voters simply forget about the SNC-Lavalin scandal as election day – set for mid-October – draws near. But as polls show, the Liberals and their archrivals, the conservatives, are polling neck and neck.