Biden Beats Trump, Dems Retake Senate According To Latest PredictIt Odds

Former VP Joe Biden might have trouble stringing sentences together, but he’s still likely to beat President Trump in November, while Congressional Democrats will retake the Senate and keep the House, according to the latest numbers from oddsmaker PredictIt.

According to PredictIt: “At a minimum, Democratic National Convention (DNC) insiders are extremely confident they can prevail against Republicans in Senate races in Arizona, Colorado, Maine and North Carolina. All four races are rated as “toss up” by the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, which currently lists no races with a sitting Democrat in the same column.

That said, Democrats also largely expect Sen. Doug Jones (D-AL), who won in a special election in 2017 against Roy Moore, to lose his seat. “

With traders currently expecting a net change in Senate seats to hit “3 seats,” here are seven Senate races worth keeping an eye on over the next five months:

• Alabama: Democrats 14¢ — Republicans 86¢
• Arizona: Democrats 83¢ — Republicans 17¢
• Colorado: Democrats 88¢ — Republicans 12¢
• Kentucky: Democrats 24¢ — Republicans 78¢
• Maine: Democrats 67¢ — Republicans 33¢
• Montana: Democrats 51¢ — Republicans 48¢
• North Carolina: Democrats 61¢ — Republicans 39¢

And as we noted over the weekend, – Goldman predicts this scenario would knock $20 per share off of S&P 500 earnings estimates for 2021, from $170 to $150.

We wrote: The problem for shareholders is that if Trump loses, much if not all of this would be reversed, as Joe Biden has proposed partially reversing the 2017 TCJA. In fact, according to the Tax Foundation the former Vice President’s plan would raise the statutory federal tax rate on domestic income from 21% to 28%, reversing half of the cut from 35% to 21% instituted by the TCJA.

In addition, the plan would double the GILTI tax rate on certain foreign income, impose a minimum tax rate of 15%, and add an additional payroll tax on high earners.

These changes would be complemented by a variety of changes to the personal tax code, including an increase in the tax rate applied to capital gains and dividends for the highest income individuals, as well as potential changes in non-tax regulatory policy that could also affect corporate earnings and equity valuations.

Long story short, if Biden’s tax proposals are enacted, this tax reform would reduce Goldman’s S&P 500 earnings estimate for 2021 by roughly $20 per share, from $170 to $150.

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That said, it should be noted that PredictIt can be illiquid at times – and a few thousand dollars can easily shift sentiment, resulting in a total change in narrative.