Congress Targets Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Google for Being Popular

topicstech

With fresh faces in the White House and Congress, many Trump-era political agendas will soon be discarded. But the desire to use antitrust law against popular tech companies isn’t likely to go anywhere. In recent months, Republicans and Democrats have both been itching to flex their regulatory muscle against the likes of Google, Facebook, Apple, and Amazon.

In October, 11 state attorneys general—all Republicans—and the Department of Justice filed a civil suit against Google, accusing the internet search giant of maintaining a digital search and ad monopoly “through anticompetitive and exclusionary practices,” in violation of the Sherman Antitrust Act. But the lawsuit fails to explain either how Google’s practices amount to anything other than normal business deals or how consumers are being harmed.

The bar for showing consumer harm “is unlikely to be met,” said Jessica Melugin, associate director of Center for Technology and Innovation at the Competitive Enterprise Institute, in a statement about the lawsuit. That’s “why so many antitrust enthusiasts are calling for a fundamental rewriting and expansion of U.S. antitrust laws. Those proposed changes sacrifice the primacy of consumer welfare and insert competitors and broader socio-economic goals in its place.”

This impetus was on full display in a fall report from the House Subcommittee on Antitrust, Commercial, and Administrative Law. After a 16-month investigation into the big four tech companies, it seems the most that congressional busybodies can accuse them of is routine business practices and having popular services. But while the 450-page report, issued in October, offers scant evidence of these companies violating current federal law, it’s full of calls to change the law so tech company actions will fall under federal purview.

The subcommittee’s bipartisan “Investigation of Competition in Digital Markets” included seven additional hearings, hundreds of interviews, and nearly 1.3 million obtained “documents and communications.” For all that work, the members found little that’s not already public knowledge and even less to suggest these companies acted in an illegal way.

The report repeatedly accuses Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Google of having “monopolies” in various facets of digital life. But it uses this term to mean not having exclusive domain over a product or service but merely enjoying large market shares thanks to consumers choosing to use them.

For instance, the report faults “the strong network effects associated with Facebook” for tipping “the market toward monopoly.” Network effects refers to the fact that the more people who are on a particular platform, the more value it holds for users—a phenomenon driven by individual choices and calculations, not anti-competitive action or a lack of alternatives. (Also notable: Facebook’s share of social media traffic has actually been declining for a few years.)

The subcommittee faults Google because “a significant number of entities…depend on Google for traffic”—as if Google is doing something wrong by building a search engine that millions of people choose to use, thereby making it a significant traffic source for sites across the web.

The report faults Amazon for things like having “significant and durable market power in the U.S. online retail market” and preferentially listing its own brands in search results among products from millions of third-party sellers. It faults Apple for pre-installing its own apps on iPhones and iPads and for running an app store that gives users access to outside apps, suggesting that this is “controlling access to more than 100 million iPhones and iPads.”

It’s one of the report’s many misrepresentations about how technologies work and whom they benefit. Without an app store, consumers would have to tediously trawl the web for each new app they wanted to access—almost ensuring that now-dominant names would become even more dominant. New or small offerings now discoverable through the centralized app marketplace would be far less visible or would have to spend far much more on marketing. The app store may benefit Apple, but it also benefits Apple customers and independent app developers.

“Last year in the United States alone, the App Store facilitated $138 billion in commerce with over 85 percent of that amount accruing solely to third-party developers,” Apple said in a statement, pointing out that the company “does not have a dominant market share in any category” where it does business.

Google accused the report of being out of touch with what consumers want while containing “outdated and inaccurate allegations from commercial rivals about Search and other services.”

Amazon also objected to the subcommittee’s “regulatory spit-balling on antitrust,” writing in a blog post that “large companies are not dominant by definition, and the presumption that success can only be the result of anti-competitive behavior is simply wrong.”

Calling Apple, Amazon, Facebook, and Google monopolies only works if we’re departing from traditional definitions of the word and its historical meaning in antitrust law. The report calls this redefinition a modernization.

“Congress must lead the path forward to modernize [antitrust laws] for the economy of today,” wrote subcommittee chair David Cicilline (D–R.I.) in the report’s introduction, which also spells out Congress’ intention to more aggressively enforce those laws. “These firms have too much power, and power must be reined in,” wrote Cicilline.

The report recommends a wide swath of changes, including prohibiting “dominant platforms from operating in adjacent lines of business” and creating new presumptions against tech acquisitions. At the progressive magazine The American Prospect, David Dayen suggested gleefully that subcommittee members are “using tech as simply a case study on what an invigorated legislative body can do to rein in the corporate power of any type.”

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2021: The Alternative View

2021: The Alternative View

Authored by Sven Henrich via NorthmanTrader.com,

As promised some views and chart perspectives on the upcoming year of 2021.

I’m titling this 2021: The Alternative View simply because Wall Street consensus is again entirely bullish for 2021 driven by the presumed view of a strong economic recovery to come along with continued aggressive central bank intervention. Fair enough and let’s assume this to be the base case.

In fact let’s just get the bullish case out of the way to start with.

Since most seem to be projecting $SPX north of 4,000 I’ll offer a technical chart that suggests a move toward $SPX 4000 or beyond is technically possible if nothing matters and that’s a basic fib extension of the current move:

That’s 4156, the 1.618 fib. That’s the technical upside risk that presumes record valuations and the farthest disconnect from equity valuations and the economy doesn’t matter. Let’s not forget that markets closed 2020 at 186% market cap to GDP an all time history high. Typically one does not start a recovery with all time bubble valuations. But hey.

That’s what Wall Street presumes and projects. I however want to at least offer a varying perspective, especially in context of the big macro video (The Ugly Truth) I had put out this weekend. It’s long I know, but if you haven’t seen it I’d encourage you to watch it when you have time as it offers a big in depth view of the larger state of affairs:

One of the points I make in the video is that all projections by everybody have been wrong in the past few years and liquidity has been really the only key deciding factor:

At the end of 2017 Wall Street predicted tax cuts would result in expanding economic growth to produce higher asset prices, instead we got little new growth but buyback fueled earnings growth yet lower asset prices due to the Fed tightening. For 2019 Wall Street predicted earnings growth and higher yields but none materialized yet asset prices flew higher anyways on the heels of 3 rate cuts and the Fed’s repo operations and related balance sheet expansion of several hundred billion dollars.

In 2020 Wall Street came out with higher $SPX price targets again with the view of again further expanding earnings growth. For reference these were the most aggressive $SPX targets outlined in December 2019 for 2020 presuming positive earnings growth:

Instead $SPX closed 2020 at 3755, much higher than even the most aggressive price targets, but not on positive earnings growth, but rather on -14% earnings growth. Ha ha. Joke on everybody. Where we’re going we don’t need earnings growth. I jest but the message is clear: Everything is disjointed and disconnected.

Fact is predictive efforts to use earnings growth as a justification for higher asset prices have become a mockery as during the past 3 years price moves have been completely detached from developments in earnings growth. Fact is in the past 2 years $SPX has gained over 50% on aggregate negative earnings growth (a temporary 35% crash in early 2020 notwithstanding).

Like it or not the market action is entirely driven and distorted by one key factor:

And what is needed for markets to continue to rally? One factor alone:

So can we please stop with the facade of using earnings growth to justify higher price targets?

As it stands Wall Street presumes positive earnings growth for 2021 to the tune of +22% (which is possible) and again even higher price targets based on continued efficacy of central banks to maintain and/or expand the historic disconnect between asset prices and the economy.

Given this backdrop I wanted to offer a few select technical charts that leave room for an alternative path to 2021.

Before I do that a simple observation: In 2020 markets indeed rallied right through year end, this was the melt up scenario I outlined in Greed is Back at the beginning of December based on the 1999/2000 $NDX scenario:

In December I also suggested selling to occur in early January: “The chart shows a sizable decline in early January. Why? Tax loss selling. When people have a lot of gains in stocks they typically don’t want to sell until the next tax year.”

Indeed we can observe similar behavior so far on this first trading day of January:

So from this perspective early year weakness could well set up for buying opportunities for either lower highs or new highs yet to come. Indeed late year price jam ups can well translate into more strength at the beginning of the following year.

After all in 2000 markets didn’t peak until March, in 2020 we didn’t top out until February 19 before the crash. In 2018 we didn’t top out until January 29.

But there are some key differences to previous years and they inform the potential for the alternative view.

For example, this year we’re entering the year with the highest MA disconnects ever in many index charts:

There is no history of such MA disconnects to be sustainable and in my view 2021 will see key MA reconnects at some stage. Whether these will then posit buying opportunities or will be signs of a breaking bull market will have to be assessed then.

We’re also seeing a market with most open gaps ever, example $NYSE:

Never has been a rally sustained with so many open gaps below. I expect major gap filling action at some stage in 2021. Not all gaps may get filled, but initially the entire gap action from the November rally may get filled at some point and that too may set up for a buying opportunity.

Of larger concern for bulls however:

What if all the price advances in 2020 came in context of another round of larger bearish rising wedges rising into key resistance?

See the $DJIA:

See $SPX, also in context of massive negative divergences in money flows previously outlined in Mystery:

Indeed see this much larger wedge on $ES:

These larger patterns, as long as not invalidated, have potential for higher prices still, but should they technically break they leave the possibility for massive downside in equities, especially on context of a market trading at 186% market cap to GDP.

In addition to these wedge patterns note the corollary structure in the US dollar. Much of the rally in 2020 has been dependent on a declining dollar and this trend has continued even into early 2021 but note the pattern is similarly bullish dollar as it was in 2018:

All of these charts suggest a completely bearish outcome to 2021 is at least a possibility with massive volatility to come at some point:

Indeed one of the biggest unspoken mysteries of 2020 has been the inability of the $VIX to fill its February 2020 gap despite trillions in interventions, vaccines introduced and new record market highs with many days seeing the price action dominated by price gaps with little intra-day volatility.

Not to scare anybody here, but this larger $VIX structure is of a potential cup & handle pattern and as long as it’s not invalidated, it has the potential for $VIX 130. Yes you are reading right. Ridiculous? So was my wife’s $VIX 90 call in the fall of 2019 when $VIX was trading in the low teens (see the Big Short):

But it happened.

And hey Robinhooders, anybody remember $VIX 172? Oh yea that happened once too in a market far far away:

The $VIX was called $VXO then, but it’s still trading today.

Nobody is saying $VIX 130 tomorrow or next week and it may never happen. These are big structural charts and they could take months to play out, but they all suggest potential massive risk to the current uniform bullish narrative.

In context everybody seems to have forgotten about the yield curve:

We had the initial inversion which everybody ignored, then the recession and now the steepening. And typically a steepening of the yield curve brings about much lower asset prices.

What if 2020 was all a liquidity mirage, a perversion of the market cycle and this cycle is to now assert itself and bring about a process of rebalancing and price discovery made worse by the artificial price extensions brought about by central bank overindulgence in intervention?

A rhetorical question. For now.

Final thought: We live in this fantasy world of permanent asset price inflation:

$NDX closed the year 2020 49% above it yearly 5 EMA. That’s ridiculous, only surpassed by the tech bubble in 2000 and it suggests major reversion risk in 2021 for yearly 5 EMA reconnects some stage.

Bottomline: These are historic times and we’re witnessing artificial market influences the likes we have never seen before. 2021 will be very much about a reconciliation of historic never before seen valuations, an unfalsifiable belief in a strong recovery and continued central bank efficacy versus technical disconnects and structural patterns that leave room for the alternative view.

This reconciliation process will take months to sort itself out and will offer astute and flexible traders plenty of opportunities to partake in large price ranges to the upside as well as to the downside. Indeed we may see a blow-off top first in the early part of the year followed by a complete reversal in the second half. Or perhaps markets already topped. Or nothing happens and central banks remain in control and the magic asset price inflation fairy will continue to sprinkle multiple expansion dust on this market.

I can’t tell you how the year 2021 will turn out nor will I pretend to throw out price targets, rather I want to suggest humility in face of the reality that everybody has been wrong about their earnings growth, economic growth and yield forecasts over the past 3 years. Yes, central banks have been able to bail out bad forecasts yet again. But that lack of predictive ability by the entire spectrum of Wall Street and central banks should give everyone pause or it at least suggests to keep a watchful eye on some of the charts I outlined above for these charts may offer important guideposts as the year progresses.

*  *  *

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Tyler Durden
Tue, 01/05/2021 – 06:00

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China’s First Mars Mission Begins Next Month As Tianwen-1 Approaches Red Planet

China’s First Mars Mission Begins Next Month As Tianwen-1 Approaches Red Planet

China’s first Mars mission could begin as early as next month. Tianwen-1 is expected to enter the red planet’s orbit in February, according to the China National Space Administration (CNSA).

On Sunday, CNSA released a statement that read Tianwen-1 has traveled more than 400 million km (249 million miles) from Earth since its launch in July. 

The spacecraft is now 8.3 million km (5.2 million miles) from Mars. Chinese state-controlled broadcaster CCTV, citing CNSA’s statement, said:

The space probe is “functioning stably and is scheduled to slow down before entering Mars orbit in more than a month and preparing itself to land on the red planet.”

Tianwen-1 probe has three parts: an orbiter, a lander, and a rover. The sequence of the Mars’ mission will begin with orbiting, landing, then roving. 

The orbit phase of the mission will be conducted for two to three months to decide on possible landing sites. 

Once the landing site is chosen, the landing and rovering will begin sometime in May. Upon landing, the rover has 90 Martian days (about three months on Earth) to conduct scientific experiments. 

A space competition with the US is unfolding as a race to send space probes to Mars, and the moon has been China’s latest mission. 

In December, CNSA declared its “Chang’e-5 successfully landed on the near side of the moon.” 

The probe’s mission included using a robotic arm from the lander to drill into the lunar surface to collect about four pounds of moon rocks, storing them in a container on the ascent module on top of the lander, before returning to Earth. 

The US and Soviet Union competed for space supremacy in the 1960s and ’70s, as it now appears the ’20s will be between China and the US. 

Tyler Durden
Tue, 01/05/2021 – 05:30

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Statistician: Lockdowns Don’t Work Because They Force People To Congregate In Fewer Places

Statistician: Lockdowns Don’t Work Because They Force People To Congregate In Fewer Places

Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Summit News,

Author and statistician William M. Briggs argues that lockdowns don’t work because they force people to gather in fewer places like supermarkets and therefore spread viruses faster than if people were allowed to spread out.

Writing on his blog, Briggs states, “A lockdown will spread this bug faster than allowing people to remain at liberty.”

The author notes that a lockdown is not the same as a quarantine. Under lockdown, people only have a limited selection of venues at which they are allowed to gather, meaning those locations are busier and therefore make a virus more transmissible.

“Lockdowns are merely forced gatherings,” writes Briggs.

“People in lockdown are allowed to venture forth from their dwellings to do “essential” activities, like spending money at oligarch-run stores. These stores are collection points, where people are concentrated. Some are allowed to go to jobs, such as supporting oligarch-run stores.”

Briggs notes that lockdown concentrates people into fewer areas outside before it “then it forces them back inside to mingle with a vengeance.”

“It’s clear that our 100% transmissible bug will spread much faster when people are forced to spend more time indoors with each other. Once one person gets it, he will spread it to those at his home immediately. If people were at liberty, and therefore more separated, the bug would still spread to everybody, but more slowly (the speed here is relative),” he writes.

“Lockdowns force people together. The venues they are allowed to venture to are restricted, and therefore concentrate contact, and they force people inside their homes where it’s obvious contact time increases. Lockdowns concentrate contact spaces and times,” concludes Briggs.

Briggs writes further that before 2020 it was obvious that lockdowns (with then only weather forcing people to gather inside for long periods) not only did not stop the transmission of bugs, but helped spread them. A look (below) at the all-cause death numbers peaking every single winter without exception (this year, too) proved that. It was in no way controversial. It was so well known that forced contact spread bugs that mentioning it was like saying the sun rose in the east.

Then came 2020 and the “expert” idea of lockdowns would do the opposite of what everybody had always known they would do. Suddenly, instead of spreading bugs, as they always did before, they would stop or at least slow the spread. Experts said so.

Why?

Models. Specifically, the two-step Model Circular Jerk.

It works like this. A modeler says “X is true.” He builds a model that assumes “X is true”. He runs the model, which output consists of “X is true” and its variants. He then announces, “X is true, confirmed by my sophisticated computer model.”

In our case, we have a Ferguson claiming some new variant of the coronavirus has a higher transmissibility, an assumption. He says to himself “Lockdowns slow and stop the spread of bugs”. He builds a model that assumes “Lockdowns slow and stop the spread of bugs”. He runs the models, which consists of “This lockdowns will slow and stop the spread of this new bug variant.” And he announced he has confirmed the efficacy of lockdowns via his sophisticated model.

And he is believed.

This happens everywhere, not just with coronavirus.

Briggs’ assertion is also backed up by how people spend their leisure time under lockdown. With most shops, cinemas and other entertainment venues closed, people in major cities pour en masse into parks or beaches where ‘social distancing’ is virtually impossible because there are so many people around.

In London, rates of COVID-19 infection were higher after the November lockdown than before it started.

*  *  *

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Tyler Durden
Tue, 01/05/2021 – 05:00

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Brickbat: Welcome to 2021

handcuffed_1161x653

Police in Gatineau, Quebec, Canada, raided a small New Year’s Eve party held in violation of the province’s coronavirus restrictions, fining the six adults at the party $1,546 ($1,214 U.S.) each. One man was arrested on charges of assaulting an officer and resisting arrest. One woman was arrested for not providing ID. She was released after complying with the order but police say she may still face charges.

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Tourism Tumbles To 1990 Levels As Pandemic Halts Travel

Tourism Tumbles To 1990 Levels As Pandemic Halts Travel

While few industries have been spared by the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, even fewer have been hit as hard as the tourism sector.

As 2020 drew to a close with severe limitations to travel still in place, the World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) expects international arrivals to have declined by 70 to 75 percent compared to the previous year. As Statista’s Felix Richter writes, that equates to a decline of around 1 billion international arrivals, bringing the industry back to 1990 levels.

Infographic: Tourism Back to 1990 Levels as Pandemic Halts Travel | Statista

You will find more infographics at Statista

Prior to the coronavirus outbreak, the global tourism sector had seen almost uninterrupted growth for decades.

Since 1980, the number of international arrivals skyrocketed from 277 million to nearly 1.5 billion in 2019. As Statista‘s chart above shows, the two largest crises of the past decades, the SARS epidemic of 2003 and the global financial crisis of 2009, were minor bumps in the road compared to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Looking ahead, most experts don’t expect a full recovery in 2021, which started off with many countries still battling the second wave of the pandemic. According to the UNWTO’s estimates, it will take the industry between 2.5 and 4 years to return to pre-pandemic levels of international tourist arrivals.

Tyler Durden
Tue, 01/05/2021 – 04:15

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Brickbat: Welcome to 2021

handcuffed_1161x653

Police in Gatineau, Quebec, Canada, raided a small New Year’s Eve party held in violation of the province’s coronavirus restrictions, fining the six adults at the party $1,546 ($1,214 U.S.) each. One man was arrested on charges of assaulting an officer and resisting arrest. One woman was arrested for not providing ID. She was released after complying with the order but police say she may still face charges.

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This Russian Energy Giant Is Mining Bitcoin With Virtually Free Energy

This Russian Energy Giant Is Mining Bitcoin With Virtually Free Energy

Authored by Haley Zaremba via OilPrice.com,

Two things that seem futuristic: Bitcoin and energy efficiency. Two things that are diametrically opposed: Bitcoin and energy efficiency. Mining Bitcoin might not sound like a resource-intensive process, but in fact it requires almost unbelievably vast amounts of energy. In order to track the shocking energy footprint of Bitcoin mining, the University of Cambridge’s Centre for Alternative Finance created an online tool that measures this consumption to its best ability and compares it to the energy consumption of other entities to put the shocking quantities into perspective.

Thanks to the climbing price of Bitcoin, this week the cryptocurrency’s energy consumption topped that of Pakistan–a nation of more than 200 million people.

This spike in Bitcoin mining is thanks to an explosion in Bitcoin prices. The cryptocurrency’s value has jumped 276% this year alone, trading above $30,000 on Tuesday with a total market value over $500 billion. As MarketWatch points out, this could make Bitcoin not only more energy intensive, but less energy efficient, as the price spike “has made it more profitable to use less-efficient equipment.”

It’s not just Bitcoin’s energy footprint and market value that are gargantuan–its carbon footprint is worryingly large as well.

Last year, however, Bitcoin defenders rallied around a new study by cryptocurrency investment products and research firm CoinShares that found nearly 75% of Bitcoins were mined using clean energy. Unfortunately, that report has now come under great scrutiny by other researchers, who have found that estimate to be greatly exaggerated. After all, two thirds of all Bitcoin mining in the world takes place in China, where more than half of the nation’s power is coal-fired.

In recent months however, this dependence on coal has become a major issue for Bitcoin mining operations in China. As China has experienced an energy shortage in recent months, in large part thanks to Beijing’s decision to blacklist Australian coal imports, domestic Bitcoin mining has come under siege. While China is still far and away the world’s largest trader of Bitcoin, energy shortages and the increased production of other countries are quickly closing that cap.

As of now, two thirds of bitcoin production happens in China, followed by the United States which represents just 7% of all bitcoin production.

The U.S. is closely followed by Russia and Kazakhstan. But that ranking could soon change as Russia makes a power play to ramp up its mining operations in a venture led by Gazpromneft, the petro-based subsidiary of Russia’s state-owned natural gas giant Gazprom, the 10th biggest oil producer in the world.

Gazpromneft recently began a cryptocurrency mining operation based in one of its Siberian oil drilling sites, “unlocking the power of Russia’s oil and gas resources for the needs of bitcoin mining,” Yahoo! Finance reported this week. In slightly better news for Bitcoin’s carbon footprint, Russia’s new mining operation will be powered by natural gas from the oil field, located in the Khanty-Mansiysk region of northwestern Siberia, which has its own power plant to convert the gas into electricity for Bitcoin production. And there is another silver (and green) lining to this model:

“The CO2 that gets freed during the oil drilling is normally a liability for oil companies as they have to burn it into the atmosphere, which results in fines. However, there are ways to utilize it instead of wasting it, and electricity generation is one of them,” Yahoo! Finance reports.

The location of the new Russian Bitcoin farm also means that the costs of the operation will be relatively low. Instead of paying a premium to use energy from the grid, locating the cryptocurrency mining on-site at an oil field means that a steady supply of natural gas is virtually free.

All this is to say that China and the U.S. had better get ready for some stiff competition. 

Tyler Durden
Tue, 01/05/2021 – 03:30

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More on “Journalists Might Be Felons for Publishing Leaked Governmental ‘Predecisional Information'”

I wrote about this case last year, shortly after the Second Circuit panel decision (which was titled U.S. v. Blaszczak) concluding by a 2-1 vote that a federal agency “has a ‘property right in keeping confidential and making exclusive use’ of its nonpublic predecisional information.” Because of this, the panel held that a federal employee’s leak of the information—and the receipt of that information by someone cooperating with the employee—could be felony wire fraud and conversion of government property.

In Blaszczak, the people dealing with the employee were using this information to trade stocks, and some of the securities charges on which they were convicted were focused on that. But the wire fraud and conversion charges did not require a showing of such illegal trading—the parties were convicted for the “theft” of government information quite apart from how the information is used.

Say then that investigative journalists have a relationship with a federal government employee, and cooperate with the employee to get a leak of confidential government “predecisional information” about the government’s planned policy changes. Under the panel’s theory, they too would be guilty of felony conversion of federal property and wire fraud.

Indeed, even if they just get the leak out of the blue, they would likely still be guilty of felony conversion, so long as they knew the leak was of confidential information. In such a situation, they would have “knowingly convert[ed] to [their] use … any … thing of value of the United States,” or “receive[d] … or retain[ed] [such a thing of value] with intent to convert it to [their] use or gain, knowing it to have been embezzled, stolen, purloined or converted.” Participation in the leak itself isn’t required; knowing use of the leaked information suffices. (If the “property” could somehow be valued at under $1000, such behavior would be just a misdemeanor, but I assume that under the federal-predecisional-information-as-property theory that the panel majority adopted, most leaked information would be valued at more than that.)

Nor would journalists have an obvious First Amendment defense that others don’t possess. As I’ve canvassed in my Freedom of the Press as an Industry, or for the Press as a Technology? From the Framing to Today article, the First Amendment generally doesn’t give institutional media more protection than other speakers.

Even if a court could distinguish use of government property for public speech purposes (whether by the media or other speakers) from such use for private purposes, the statutes on which the panel relies draw no such distinction. And the panel’s reasoning as to property draws no such distinction, either: If the predecisional information is federal government property, and using that information for one purpose (selling stocks) is conversion of that property, then using that information for another purpose (selling newspapers) would be as well. Certainly journalists (or independent bloggers or other commentators) have no assurance that they would escape criminal liability under the panel’s theory.

There have been procedural developments since then (there usually are). Several months after the panel decision, the Supreme Court adopted a narrower reading of “property” in Kelly v. U.S.—the Bridgegate case—than some lower courts had done. The defendants in Blaszcak then petitioned the Court for certiorari. (The lead case is now styled Olan v. U.S.). And the government didn’t file a substantive argument about the certworthiness of the case, but instead asked the Court to send the case back down to the Second Circuit:

Petitioners contend that their convictions … are infirm because a federal agency’s predecisional, confidential information about a regulation does not constitute “property” under the federal fraud statutes or a “thing of value” under the federal conversion statute. After the court of appeals issued its decision in this case and denied rehearing, this Court decided Kelly v. U.S., which held that “a scheme to alter … a regulatory choice is not one to appropriate the government’s property.” …

A remand … would allow the court of appeals to consider the issue …. Accordingly, the appropriate course is to grant the petitions for writs of certiorari, vacate the decision below, and remand the case for further consideration in light of Kelly.

I’m pleased to see that the Second Circuit decision will at least likely be reconsidered, though it seems to me to make sense for the Court to be the one doing the reconsidering. The issue strikes me as being of huge First Amendment significance, and likely of even greater securities law significance (though as to the latter I’m not an expert).

Here, by the way, is a passage from the National Association of Criminal Defense Lawyers amicus brief in the Second Circuit phase of the case that puts the substantive issue well:

Consider a government employee, believing the government is about to enact a misguided policy, who makes an interstate telephone call to a journalist and relays “confidential” information about the planned policy. Assume the employee does so in the hope that the journalist’s newspaper will publish the article, that the publication will lead to public pressure, and that the pressure will lead the government to reverse its misguided decision. Further, assume the information will help the newspaper increase its circulation. On the prosecution’s theory in this case, the employee, the journalist, and the newspaper would be well advised to consult with counsel before proceeding, for this conduct would satisfy each element of the fraud and theft offenses for which the defendants were convicted.

It would violate Section 641, as charged in this case, because on the prosecution’s theory all “confidential” information is the government’s property, the information was disclosed without permission, the disclosure was intended to deny the government the “use and benefit” of the property in precisely the manner identified by the prosecution here—undermining the government’s ability to implement a chosen policy—and the information was worth more than $1,000 to the ultimate recipient, the newspaper.

On the prosecution’s theory, this conduct would also violate the fraud statutes, for similar reasons: It would constitute a scheme to deprive the government of what the prosecution contends is government “property”—that is, the information about regulatory plans—and to convert that property to one’s own use (that is, to run a profitable newspaper story).

The prosecution may protest that it would never bring such a case. But the vibrant public discourse guaranteed by the First Amendment requires greater protection than a prosecutor’s indulgence. See McDonnell, 136 S. Ct. at 2372-2373 (“[W]e cannot construe a criminal statute on the assumption that the Government will ‘use it responsibly.'” (quoting United States v. Stevens, 559 U.S. 460, 480 (2010))). When, as here, “the most sweeping reading of [a] statute would fundamentally upset” constitutional constraints on federal prosecution, it “gives … serious reason to doubt the Government’s expansive reading … and calls for [courts] to interpret the statute more narrowly.” Bond v. United States, 572 U.S. 844, 866 (2014).

Of course, information is sometimes treated as property, and indeed business confidential information has been so treated in related areas (as in Carpenter v. U.S. (1987)); that too raises potential First Amendment problems for business journalists whose articles are often based on leaks from within a company.

But the First Amendment concerns become even greater when the information has to do with the inner workings of the government, and not just of a private business. And the case for treating the information as property becomes weaker; to quote again the NACDL brief,

To be sure, the Supreme Court in Carpenter, on which the government relied heavily below, affirmed a fraud conviction based on a scheme to steal and trade on “confidential business information.” But it was critical in Carpenter that the scheme involved a very particular business—the Wall Street Journal—and a very particular kind of information—the planned content of future columns. The Journal obviously held much more than a “regulatory” interest in its forthcoming columns. These columns were, in the Carpenter Court’s words, the Journal’s “stock in trade.” It requires no great leap of logic to find that a newspaper has a property interest in the only thing it sells—the particular stories it plans to print—and that misappropriating such valuable, confidential information is a form of fraud.

Here, by contrast, the information about future regulatory actions is not something the government ever sells, much less its entire stock in trade. And the government can identify only hypothetical regulatory injury from disclosure of the information, unlike the obvious commercial loss at issue in Carpenter....

 

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Mapping The World’s Most-Surveilled Cities (London Leads The West)

Mapping The World’s Most-Surveilled Cities (London Leads The West)

Since the world’s first CCTV camera was installed in Germany in 1942, the number of surveillance cameras around the world has grown immensely. In fact, as Visual Capitalist’s Avery Koop notes, it only took us 79 years to go from one camera to nearly one billion of these devices.

In the above interactive graphic, Surfshark maps out how prevalent CCTV surveillance cameras are in the world’s 130 most populous cities.

Big Brother is Watching

So how many of us are being watched? China and India are the countries with the highest densities of CCTV surveillance cameras in urban areas. Chennai, India has 657 cameras per square kilometer, making it the number one city in the world in terms of surveillance.

Here’s a closer look at the world’s top 10 cities by CCTV density.

London is the only non-Asian city to crack the list with 399 CCTV cameras per square kilometer.

Beijing ranks in tenth place. The Chinese capital has the highest number of CCTV cameras in total, at just over 1.1 million installed in the city.

Although CCTV cameras have become extremely prevalent in cities around the world, this does not mean these cameras are seeing and recognizing our every move. In most instances, cameras are in a fixed position—and some of the more invasive aspects of CCTV, like accompanying facial recognition technology, are not universal yet.

The Need for CCTV

The ubiquity of surveillance cameras can be unnerving to some, as they represent diminishing privacy. However, there are also those that feel the presence of cameras creates added safety.

While governments like China’s claim that having high amounts of surveillance cameras helps reduce crime, the actual data gets messy. For example, the Chinese city of Taiyuan has roughly 120 cameras per every thousand people and yet the city has a higher crime index than most.

Freedom vs. Security

As surveillance networks become more sophisticated and granular, there is increasing concern about breaches to personal freedoms.

China is doubling down with surveillance in its cities by pioneering the usage and exportation of facial recognition technology. This technology is integral to China’s proposed social points system. With a database of 1.3 billion pictures that can be matched to a face on a CCTV camera in seconds, troublemaking citizens can easily be identified.

In India, on the other hand, the amount of cameras can be attributed to mass urbanization, rising crime, and scarcity of urban resources. Overall, there is a rising middle class that wishes to protect itself with the use of CCTV cameras.

As we close in on one billion CCTV surveillance cameras globally by the end of 2021, we will undoubtedly continue to be monitored well into the future.

Tyler Durden
Tue, 01/05/2021 – 02:45

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