“Tens Of Thousands” Of Bot Accounts Helped Fuel The GameStop Chaos, Analysis Finds

“Tens Of Thousands” Of Bot Accounts Helped Fuel The GameStop Chaos, Analysis Finds

Major social media platforms have seen an influx of bots hyping up GameStop and other popular social media stocks, according to a new analysis. Massachusetts-based cyber security company PiiQ Media has said that “organized economic or foreign actors” may have played a role in the Reddit frenzy, Reuters reported last week.

If true, it would mean that Congress very likely hauled all the wrong people in to give testimony this month (surprise, surprise). 

Reddit Chief Executive Steve Huffman told congress this month that bots didn’t play a “significant role” in any of the GameStop traffic on Reddit’s site. He said the same about artificial or fake accounts with automated content. 

However, PiiQ Media’s analysis of Twitter Inc, Facebook Inc, Instagram and YouTube posts showed that bots were used on each of the respective platforms. It is unclear how much or how little of an effect they had in the price action, Reuters reported. The firm did not analyze Reddit but said they would “expect to see a similar pattern” if they did. 

As part of their analysis, PiiQ Media looked into key words and phrases like “hold the line” and GME’s stock symbol. It compared instances and usages prior to the January 28 chaos through February 18. It compared these to posts on an “unrelated” set of stocks. The firm said it found similar daily “start and stop patterns” in the posts. Activity would start near the beginning of the trading day and would ramp at the end of the trading day. 

This is indicative of bots, PiiQ’s CTO, Aaron Barr, said, telling Reuters: “We saw clear patterns of artificial behavior across the other four social media platforms. When you think of organic content, it’s variable in the day, variable day-to-day. It doesn’t have the exact same pattern every day for a month.”

PiiQ estimated there are “tens of thousands” of boys hyping GameStock, meme stock and Dogecoin. The firm said thousands of fake accounts can be bought for as little as $200. 

 

Tyler Durden
Mon, 03/01/2021 – 09:55

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/3raGdPO Tyler Durden

Key Events This Busy Week: Payrolls, PMIs And Barrage Of Fed Talking Heads

Key Events This Busy Week: Payrolls, PMIs And Barrage Of Fed Talking Heads

While last week’s price action was all about bonds with little focus on fundamentals, the main highlights this week will be on Friday’s jobs report as well as the Fed speakers in their final week of comments before the blackout period begins ahead of the March 16-17 FOMC meeting according to DB’s Jim Reid. Today we see Williams, Bostic, Mester and Kashkari speak but Brainard’s speech on financial stability this morning US time is probably the one to watch for any official Fed comments on last week’s events

Brainard will also make an appearance tomorrow, as will Daly. Evans speaks on Wednesday with Powell himself on Thursday. So plenty of opportunity for the Fed to get a message across to the market. They will likely have been troubled by the recent rise in real yields and possibly by the repricing of Fed Funds contracts.

Looking forward, in terms of other main events this week outside of the Fed, there are a number of highlights. Key data releases include the February PMIs (today and Wednesday) and the monthly jobs report in the US (Friday), with some attention on the UK budget on Wednesday which may be the first major country to start tax rises in some areas as a result of the pandemic. Talking of tax rises, the US decision on Friday not to stand in the way of a global digital tax is a breakthrough on a multi year attempt to harmonize this with the OECD being the driver of the multilateral plan. Although many hurdles may still exist, not least getting it passed through the US Congress, this is certainly a step forward on this plan and could have long-term implications, especially for tech.

According to BofA, hiring likely saw a modest pickup in Feb with nonfarm payroll growth of 225k versus 49k previously. The unemployment rate should hold at 6.3% amid increased participation. The ISM surveys likely moderated to still robust readings, with the bank expecting manufacturing to fall to 57.5 from 58.7 and services to decrease to 58.0 from 58.7. Pay attention to the prices paid components which have been on the rise.

Finally, we’re coming to the end of earnings season now, with 480 companies in the S&P 500 having released their earnings at time of writing. Around 79% of them have reported a positive surprise on earnings, and c.70% have reported a positive surprise on sales. Over the week ahead, a further 15 companies in the S&P 500 will be reporting, as well as 64 from the STOXX 600. Among the highlights to watch out for include Zoom today, Target tomorrow, Prudential on Wednesday, Broadcom, Costco, Merck, Aviva and Lufthansa on Thursday, and the London Stock Exchange Group on Friday.

Source: earnings whispers

Below is a day-by-day calendar of events, courtesy of Deutsche Bank

Monday March 1

  • Data: February manufacturing PMIs from Indonesia, Japan, China, India, Russia, Turkey, Italy, France, Germany, South Africa, Euro Area, UK, Brazil, Canada, US and Mexico, Japan February vehicle sales, UK January mortgage approvals, Italy preliminary February CPI, Germany preliminary February CPI, US January construction spending, February ISM manufacturing, Japan January jobless rate (23:30 UK time)
  • Central Banks: Fed’s Williams, Bostic, Mester, Kashkari and ECB’s De Guindos, Makhlouf and Villeroy speak
  • Earnings: Zoom

Tuesday March 2

  • Data: Germany February unemployment change, Euro Area February CPI estimate, Canada Q4 GDP, Australia February services and composite PMIs (22:00 UK time)
  • Central Banks: Reserve Bank of Australia monetary policy decision, Fed’s Brainard and Daly speak
  • Earnings: Target

Wednesday March 3

  • Data: February services and composite PMIs from Japan, China, India, Russia, Italy, France, Germany, Euro Area, UK, Brazil and US, Italy final Q4 GDP, Euro Area January PPI, US February ADP employment change, ISM services index
  • Central Banks: Federal Reserve releases Beige Book, Fed’s Harker, Evans and BoE’s Tenreyro speak
  • Earnings: Prudential
  • Politics: UK Budget announcement

Thursday March 4

  • Data: February construction PMI from Germany and the UK, Euro Area January unemployment rate, retail sales, US weekly initial jobless claims, January factory orders, final January durable goods orders
  • Central Banks: Fed Chair Powell, ECB’s Knot, Centeno speak
  • Earnings: Broadcom, Costco, Merck, Aviva, Lufthansa

Friday March 5

  • Data: Germany January factory orders, Italy January retail sales, US February change in nonfarm payrolls, unemployment rate, average hourly earnings, January trade balance, consumer credit
  • Central Banks: BoE’s Haskel speaks
  • Earnings: London Stock Exchange Group

Finally, focusing just on the US, Goldman writes that the key economic data releases this week are the ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing reports on Monday and Wednesday, jobless claims on Thursday, and the February employment report on Friday. There are numerous speaking engagements from Fed officials this week, including Chair Powell on Thursday.

Monday, March 1

  • 09:00 AM New York Fed President Williams (FOMC voter) speaks: New York Fed President John Williams will make opening and closing remarks at a virtual conference on culture hosted by the New York Fed.
  • 09:05 AM Fed Governor Brainard (FOMC voter) speaks: Fed Governor Lael Brainard will discuss financial stability in a virtual speech to the annual conference of the Institute of International Bankers. Prepared text and moderated Q&A are expected.
  • 09:45 AM Markit manufacturing PMI, February final (consensus 58.5, last 58.5)
  • 10:00 AM Construction spending, January (GS +0.6%, consensus +0.7%, last +1.0%): We estimate a 0.6% increase in construction spending in January, with scope for a further increase in private residential construction spending.
  • 10:00 AM ISM manufacturing index, January (GS 59.0, consensus 58.6, last 58.7): We expect the ISM manufacturing index to rise by 0.3pt to 59.0 in the February report, reflecting strength in the regional manufacturing surveys and a record reading of the GSAI, as well as our expectation of continued industrial resilience during the third wave. Our manufacturing tracker rose 1.3pt to 59.1.
  • 02:00 PM Atlanta Fed President Bostic (FOMC voter), Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari (FOMC non-voter), and Cleveland Fed President Mester (FOMC non-voter) speak: Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, and Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester will take part in a virtual panel discussion on racism and the economy.

Tuesday, March 2

  • 01:00 PM Fed Governor Brainard (FOMC voter) speaks: Fed Governor Lael Brainard will discuss the economic outlook during a virtual discussion hosted by the Council on Foreign Relations. Prepared text and moderated Q&A are expected.
  • 02:00 PM San Francisco Fed President Daly (FOMC voter) speaks: San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly will give a speech to the Economic Club of New York.
  • 05:00 PM Lightweight motor vehicle sales, February (GS 15.9m, consensus 16.2m, last 16.6m)

Wednesday, March 3

  • 08:15 AM ADP employment report, February (GS +300k, consensus +180k, last +174k): We expect a 300k rise in ADP payroll employment, reflecting firm underlying job growth and a boost from the statistical inputs to the ADP model.
  • 09:45 AM Markit services PMI, February final (consensus 58.9 last 58.9)
  • 10:00 AM ISM services index, January (GS 58.2, consensus 58.9, last 58.7): We estimate the ISM services index declined by 0.5pt to 58.2 in February, reflecting winter-storm disruptions to mining and weather-sensitive services industries as well as convergence towards our GS Non-Manufacturing Survey Tracker (at 53.5 in February).
  • 10:00 AM Philadelphia Fed President Harker (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker will take part in a virtual discussion on an equitable workforce recovery. Prepared text is expected.
  • 12:00 PM Atlanta Fed President Bostic (FOMC voter) speaks: Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic will discuss how inclusion powers the economy. Audience Q&A is expected.
  • 01:00 PM Chicago Fed President Evans (FOMC voter) speaks: Chicago Fed President Charles Evans will discuss the economy during a virtual event hosted by the CFA Society of Chicago. Audience and moderated Q&A are expected.
  • 02:00 PM Beige Book, February/March FOMC meeting period: The Fed’s Beige Book is a summary of regional economic anecdotes from the 12 Federal Reserve districts. In the March Beige Book, we look for anecdotes related to growth, labor markets, wages, price inflation, and the economic impacts of the ongoing coronavirus outbreak.

Thursday, March 4

  • 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended February 27 (GS 745k, consensus 755k, last 730k): Continuing jobless claims, week ended February 20 (consensus 4,300k, last 4,419k)” We estimate initial jobless claims increased to 745k in the week ended February 27.
  • 08:30 AM Nonfarm productivity, Q4 final (GS -4.6%, consensus -4.7%, last -4.8%): Unit labor costs, Q4 final (GS +6.1%, consensus +6.7%, last +6.8%): We estimate nonfarm productivity was revised up by two tenths to -4.6% (qoq ar) in Q4. We estimate growth in Q4 unit labor costs – compensation per hour divided by output per hour – was revised down to by seven tenths to +6.1% in Q4.
  • 10:00 AM Factory orders, January (GS +2.3%, consensus +1.8%, last +1.1%): Durable goods orders, January final (last +3.4%); Durable goods orders ex-transportation, January final (last +1.4%); Core capital goods orders, January final (last +0.5%); Core capital goods shipments, January final (last +2.1%): We estimate factory orders increased by 2.3% in January following a 1.1% increase in December. Durable goods orders rose by 3.4% in the January advance report, and core capital goods orders rose by 0.5%.
  • 12:05 PM Fed Chair Powell (FOMC voter) speaks: Fed Chair Jerome Powell will discuss the U.S. economy during a virtual event hosted by the Wall Street Journal. Moderated Q&A is expected.

Friday, March 5

  • 08:30 AM Nonfarm payroll employment, February (GS +225k, consensus +180k, last +49k); Private payroll employment, February (GS +225k, consensus +190k, last +6k); Average hourly earnings (mom), February (GS +0.1%, consensus +0.2%, last +0.3%);  Average hourly earnings (yoy), February (GS +5.2%, consensus +5.3%, last +5.4%)Unemployment rate, February (GS 6.3%, consensus 6.4%, last 6.4%): We estimate nonfarm payrolls rose 225k in February. Falling infection rates and a net easing of business restrictions likely supported job growth in virus-sensitive industries—particularly given newly available PPP money—and Big Data signals also generally indicate a solid pace of job growth. We also believe the higher jobless claims readings this year mostly reflect policy changes and non-economic factors as opposed to new layoffs. While weather is probably a negative factor this month, the severe winter storms in the South probably struck too late to significantly affect the report. Seasonal adjustment represents a two-sided source of uncertainty, as the establishment survey seasonal factors lowered the reported pace of job growth in the last two reports (relative to a typical December or January), and these effects could persist or reverse depending on the parameters selected by the BLS statisticians. We estimate an unchanged unemployment rate of 6.3%, reflecting a solid expected rise in household employment offset by a rebound in labor force participation. We estimate a 0.1% increase in average hourly earnings (mom sa) due to negative calendar effects.
  • 08:30 AM Trade balance, January (GS -$67.1bn, consensus -$67.4bn, last -$66.6bn): We estimate the trade deficit increased by $0.5bn in January, reflecting an increase in the goods trade deficit. Goods imports are now above their pre-pandemic level, and goods exports are only slightly below their pre-pandemic level. Both imports and exports of services have recovered only slightly from their 2020Q2 troughs.
  • 03:00 PM Atlanta Fed President Bostic (FOMC voter) speaks: Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic will take part in a virtual discussion on macroeconomic policy hosted by Stanford University. Audience Q&A is expected.

Source: Deutsche, Goldman, BofA

Tyler Durden
Mon, 03/01/2021 – 09:45

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/3c4E4z1 Tyler Durden

Rabo: Comfortably Numb and Number

Rabo: Comfortably Numb and Number

By Michael Every of Rabobank

Comfortably Numb and Number

Bond yields plummeted Friday (US 10s down 11bp to 1.40%). This followed the Biden administration’s airstrikes in the Middle East: yes, world, America is back…to bombing Syria. However, Friday’s strong market swing arguably reflected end-of-the-month short-covering rather than end-of-the-world duck-and-covering. Indeed, markets remain comfortably numb (or comfortably bomb) about such things. Even so, bond yields are likely to face a testing week from different directions.

First, there is still geopolitics. With yields tracking energy prices, how will markets square what some analysts see as a “surgical” US bombing (22 dead) with attempts to get the Iran nuclear deal back on track? Did US bombs show Tehran and the region it will use sticks as well as carrots? Or will Tehran shrug –it just rejected an EU-brokered offer of informal talks with the US, insisting on the removal of all sanctions first? And/or, will Israel respond to what it claims was an Iranian attack on one of its vessels? Markets also need to square the US’s new policy vis-à-vis Saudi Arabia to be launched today, which will further snub 35-year old de facto ‘wild-card’/economic-reformer leader Prince Mohammad Bin Salman (MBS) –while not sanctioning him for allegedly having ordered the murder of Khashoggi– in favour of 85-year old, conservative King Salman. Will Iran use such US distancing as an opportunity to press the Saudis physically?

The MBS snub is part of the White House’s new human rights foreign policy focus. On that front, Sunday saw 47 Hong Kong politicians and activists charged with subversion under its national security law. The Guardian notes: “Nearly every main voice of dissent in Hong Kong is now in jail or exile…All face life in prison if convicted….at the time of the arrests, the Hong Kong security secretary, John Lee, told local media those arrested had aimed to “paralyse” the city’s government with their plan to win the election and block legislation.” The White House has already stated it will “speak out” over Chinese actions in Hong Kong: for markets the question is if it will do more than that, prompting risk-off. Most of the Trump architecture on China remains intact, from tariffs to tech restrictions to supply-chain-shift plans, and the ‘Quad’, and even an insistence on China meeting the terms of the Phase One trade deal. Yet have we reached the limit of what the US is willing to do “because markets”? (Sunday also saw pro-democracy protests in both Thailand and Myanmar. As The Economist tweeted, Southeast Asia is pivotal in any US-China Cold War, but doesn’t want to choose sides – piercing analysis there, guys: so what will/can the US do?)

Second is politics. Former President Trump gave a speech at the CPAC convention Sunday titled “America Uncancelled”, in which he suggested he will run for the White House again in 2024and win a third time”(!) It remains to be seen how long markets can be comfortably numb about US populism, which history suggests is likely to become more, not less populist. Recall we are just over 18 months away from Congressional elections which could flip the House, the Senate, or both: and higher energy –and food– prices resulting from both extraordinary monetary policy and the promise of massive fiscal stimulus near term may potentially play as large a role there as they do in the bond market. US political gridlock would mean the end of the fiscal-monetary fusion narrative yields have been spiking on the back of (not noting that the UK is again talking about tax hikes). Of course, markets might prefer that outcome if it leaves central banks to mop things up – or rather mop financial assets up. But reflation it isn’t.

Third is the economy, where some data aren’t sticking to the Great Reflation script (in the same way that the Smartest People in the World at the WEF got the script wrong with their tweet stating global lockdowns were “quietly improving cities around the world” – with heavy emphasis on the “quietly”): China’s services PMI dipped from 52.4 to 51.4 over the weekend, and manufacturing from 51.3 to 50.6; that as a former finance minister warned fiscal risks remain “extremely severe with risks and challenges”, with low revenue for five years ahead and no prospect of any spending cuts ahead, suggesting policy may need to be tightened at some point.

The other key area for yields this week is of course central banks. We can expect all the usual suspects to have to put their mouths where their money is: that is verbally (for sure) and financially (quite likely?) show the longer end of the curve that they are still in control. First into this unwelcome spotlight is the RBA, which meets tomorrow. Just saying CoreLogic house prices were up 2.0% m/m in February isn’t going to cut much mustard – just credibility. Yes, if you had to pick a central bank to be at the vanguard of potential paradigm-shifting institutional change, it would not be the stolid one at Martin Place: yet the RBA are going to have to show markets something – unless the rising yield wave is receding like a distant ship, or smoke on the horizon, King Canute-like, by itself. (Which just to reiterate we *do* think will happen –see here and here— but not for a while….and certainly not if the Middle East has a series of unfortunate events.) After the RBA, everyone else will get their turn, with the ECB already giving us hints, right up until the Fed mid-month. The key question is at what point do we hear this classic tune play?

Hello? Hello? Hello? Is there anybody in there? Just nod if you can hear me; Is there anyone not long?

Come on now; I hear your yields ain’t goin’ down; Well I can ease your pain; Get bonds on their feet again

Relax; I’ll need some information first; Just the basic facts; Can you show which part of the curve hurts?

There are no yields, they are receding; A distant ship, smoke on the horizon; They are only popping up in waves; Your bonds move but I can’t hear what they’re saying

When I was young I had true fever; Yields could rise just like two balloons; Now we’ll never get that feeling once again; I can’t explain ‘cos you’d all understand; Let’s pretend this is not how I am

Curves must become comfortably numb

OK; Just a little more QE and YCC, quick; There’ll be no more, aaa-aaa-aaah! But the poor may feel a little sick

Can stocks stand up? I do believe it’s working, good; That’ll keep assets booming even though; They are all toilet, don’t you know?

There are no yields, they are receding; A distant ship, smoke on the horizon; I am only making one-way trades; Your bonds move but I can’t hear what they’re saying

When I was wrong; We got more than a fleeting glimpse; Of what this meant for CPI; I turned to look but it was gone; So let’s give that all the finger now; That theory’s flown; That dream is gone; and

Cuuuuuuur-uur-uur-uur-rves must become comfortably numb

Tyler Durden
Mon, 03/01/2021 – 09:39

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/3qdZQp3 Tyler Durden

Cuomo Asks America To Hold Off on Believing Women This Time

Cuomo(1)

New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo has been accused by two women of sexual harassment. Both women were former staff of the Democratic governor.

Former Cuomo executive assistant Charlotte Bennett said that Cuomo harassed her last spring. The 25-year-old claims Cuomo made myriad inappropriate comments, including talking to her about his loneliness and his openness to dating younger women and asking her prying questions about her personal romantic attachments.

“I understood that the governor wanted to sleep with me, and felt horribly uncomfortable and scared,” Bennett told The New York Times in a detailed interview. “And was wondering how I was going to get out of it and assumed it was the end of my job.” Not long thereafter, Bennett was transferred to another department.

Former Cuomo staffer Lindsey Boylan also claims that Cuomo harassed her when she was his employee. In a Medium post, Boylan alleges that Cuomo made inappropriate comments about her appearance, invited her to play strip poker while “on his taxpayer-funded jet,” and kissed her on the lips without her consent—a move that under Cuomo’s rules would be defined as sexual assault. (Boylan first publicly raised sexual harassment allegations against Cuomo back in December but did not go into specifics then.)

Cuomo’s press secretary called Boylan’s allegations “false” and Cuomo himself said in a Saturday statement that he “never made advances toward Ms. Bennett, nor did I ever intend to act in any way that was inappropriate.” He is now calling for an independent review of the allegations.

In a statement last night, Cuomo added: “I now understand that my interactions may have been insensitive or too personal and that some of my comments, given my position, made others feel in ways I never intended.” He also asked people not to rush to judgments before the investigation is concluded—a courtesy he has seldom shown when it comes to sexual harassment claims against folks other than him.

For instance, Cuomo immediately called for former New York Attorney General Eric Schneiderman to resign when allegations surfaced against him.

“My personal opinion is that, given the damning pattern of facts and corroboration laid out in the article, I do not believe it is possible for Eric Schneiderman to continue to serve as Attorney General, and for the good of the office, he should resign,” said Cuomo before an official investigation was even underway.

Cuomo also introduced and aggressively advocated for New York’s 2015 “Enough Is Enough Act,” bragging that it was “the most aggressive policy in the nation” to fight sexual assault and misconduct on college campuses. The bill spread nonsense statistics about sexual assault on college campuses and set “affirmative consent” as the standard for college sexual encounters, which many lawyers view as problematic and a threat to due process.

Cuomo has also lobbied for increased criminal penalties for nonconsensual touching of all sorts and for consensual touching that involves money.


FREE MINDS

QAnon comes to the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC), an annual gathering of the conservative establishment that’s grown increasingly unhinged alongside the GOP at large. A CPAC speaker “promoted the QAnon conspiracy theory from the event’s main stage on Sunday, shortly before Donald Trump was scheduled to appear,” notes Will Sommer at The Daily Beast. “Former congressional candidate Angela Stanton King…called for an investigation into whether QAnon’s bizarre claims about a cabal of cannibal-pedophiles controlling the world and a mysterious figure named Q giving hidden messages to Trump supporters are real.”


FREE MARKETS

Virginia legalizes marijuana, no thanks to the state’s Republican legislators. It is now the 16th state to do so. More from Politico:

The Virginia Legislature approved adult-use marijuana legalization Saturday in a historic vote marking the first state in theOld South to embrace full legalization.

The House passed the measure in a 48-43 vote, and the Senate approved it in a 20-19 vote. Not a single Republican voted for the bill in either chamber.

Virginia residents shouldn’t light up without fear just yet, however. Under the new measure, which still must be signed by the state’s governor, the legal sale of marijuana would not start until 2024.


QUICK HITS

• The Electronic Frontier Foundation explains the trouble with the so-called SAFE TECH Act, “a shotgun approach to Section 230 reform put forth by Sens. Mark Warner, Mazie Hirono and Amy Klobuchar earlier this month.”

• The Supreme Court is slated to hear oral arguments for a major voting rights case on Tuesday.

• Yes, conservatives are hypocrites about cancel culture and race-related discussions. But “it is progressives who in recent years have attempted to increase the stigma attached to racist speech while also expanding the scope of what’s ‘racist,'” writes Matthew Yglesias. “That double move introduces complications into discussions of racism that should invite more argumentation, not less.”

• Thread:

• Thanks to U.S. laws, sex workers in 2021 aren’t just fighting stigma, “They’re fighting for their right to be on the internet,” writes Mark Serrels at CNET.

• Whoa:

• The untold story of queer foster families.

The Cut dissects “the willful misunderstanding of kink.”

from Latest – Reason.com https://ift.tt/2OcrNQq
via IFTTT

Cuomo Asks America To Hold Off on Believing Women This Time

Cuomo(1)

New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo has been accused by two women of sexual harassment. Both women were former staff of the Democratic governor.

Former Cuomo executive assistant Charlotte Bennett said that Cuomo harassed her last spring. The 25-year-old claims Cuomo made myriad inappropriate comments, including talking to her about his loneliness and his openness to dating younger women and asking her prying questions about her personal romantic attachments.

“I understood that the governor wanted to sleep with me, and felt horribly uncomfortable and scared,” Bennett told The New York Times in a detailed interview. “And was wondering how I was going to get out of it and assumed it was the end of my job.” Not long thereafter, Bennett was transferred to another department.

Former Cuomo staffer Lindsey Boylan also claims that Cuomo harassed her when she was his employee. In a Medium post, Boylan alleges that Cuomo made inappropriate comments about her appearance, invited her to play strip poker while “on his taxpayer-funded jet,” and kissed her on the lips without her consent—a move that under Cuomo’s rules would be defined as sexual assault. (Boylan first publicly raised sexual harassment allegations against Cuomo back in December but did not go into specifics then.)

Cuomo’s press secretary called Boylan’s allegations “false” and Cuomo himself said in a Saturday statement that he “never made advances toward Ms. Bennett, nor did I ever intend to act in any way that was inappropriate.” He is now calling for an independent review of the allegations.

In a statement last night, Cuomo added: “I now understand that my interactions may have been insensitive or too personal and that some of my comments, given my position, made others feel in ways I never intended.” He also asked people not to rush to judgments before the investigation is concluded—a courtesy he has seldom shown when it comes to sexual harassment claims against folks other than him.

For instance, Cuomo immediately called for former New York Attorney General Eric Schneiderman to resign when allegations surfaced against him.

“My personal opinion is that, given the damning pattern of facts and corroboration laid out in the article, I do not believe it is possible for Eric Schneiderman to continue to serve as Attorney General, and for the good of the office, he should resign,” said Cuomo before an official investigation was even underway.

Cuomo also introduced and aggressively advocated for New York’s 2015 “Enough Is Enough Act,” bragging that it was “the most aggressive policy in the nation” to fight sexual assault and misconduct on college campuses. The bill spread nonsense statistics about sexual assault on college campuses and set “affirmative consent” as the standard for college sexual encounters, which many lawyers view as problematic and a threat to due process.

Cuomo has also lobbied for increased criminal penalties for nonconsensual touching of all sorts and for consensual touching that involves money.


FREE MINDS

QAnon comes to the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC), an annual gathering of the conservative establishment that’s grown increasingly unhinged alongside the GOP at large. A CPAC speaker “promoted the QAnon conspiracy theory from the event’s main stage on Sunday, shortly before Donald Trump was scheduled to appear,” notes Will Sommer at The Daily Beast. “Former congressional candidate Angela Stanton King…called for an investigation into whether QAnon’s bizarre claims about a cabal of cannibal-pedophiles controlling the world and a mysterious figure named Q giving hidden messages to Trump supporters are real.”


FREE MARKETS

Virginia legalizes marijuana, no thanks to the state’s Republican legislators. It is now the 16th state to do so. More from Politico:

The Virginia Legislature approved adult-use marijuana legalization Saturday in a historic vote marking the first state in theOld South to embrace full legalization.

The House passed the measure in a 48-43 vote, and the Senate approved it in a 20-19 vote. Not a single Republican voted for the bill in either chamber.

Virginia residents shouldn’t light up without fear just yet, however. Under the new measure, which still must be signed by the state’s governor, the legal sale of marijuana would not start until 2024.


QUICK HITS

• The Electronic Frontier Foundation explains the trouble with the so-called SAFE TECH Act, “a shotgun approach to Section 230 reform put forth by Sens. Mark Warner, Mazie Hirono and Amy Klobuchar earlier this month.”

• The Supreme Court is slated to hear oral arguments for a major voting rights case on Tuesday.

• Yes, conservatives are hypocrites about cancel culture and race-related discussions. But “it is progressives who in recent years have attempted to increase the stigma attached to racist speech while also expanding the scope of what’s ‘racist,'” writes Matthew Yglesias. “That double move introduces complications into discussions of racism that should invite more argumentation, not less.”

• Thread:

• Thanks to U.S. laws, sex workers in 2021 aren’t just fighting stigma, “They’re fighting for their right to be on the internet,” writes Mark Serrels at CNET.

• Whoa:

• The untold story of queer foster families.

The Cut dissects “the willful misunderstanding of kink.”

from Latest – Reason.com https://ift.tt/2OcrNQq
via IFTTT

It’s “Gonna Disrupt The F**k Out Of Big Tech” – Crypto Roars Back As Citi Sees Imminent ‘Tipping Point’ In Global Trade

It’s “Gonna Disrupt The F**k Out Of Big Tech” – Crypto Roars Back As Citi Sees Imminent ‘Tipping Point’ In Global Trade

Bitcoin has soared back above $48,000 this morning, after crashing near a $42,000 handle over the weekend, following Congress’ passing of Biden’s stimulus package.

“In the US a $1.9 trillion stimulus package is on the way. That’s more than all the cash currently sitting on the US Treasury account at the Federal Reserve,” on-chain analytics service Ecoinometrics summarized to Twitter followers.

“This is good for Bitcoin.”

However, perhaps most notably, in a 108-page deep-dive into cryptocurrencies, Citi said there had been a major change in bitcoin from “primarily a retail-focused endeavor to something that looks attractive for institutional investors” as they search for higher returns and alternative assets.

“The entrance of institutional investors has sparked confidence in cryptocurrency but there are still persistent issues that could limit widespread adoption,” Citi said.

Additionally, Citi says Bitcoin could be at the start of a “massive transformation” into the mainstream of finance and could even become the currency of global trade.

“Bitcoin’s future is thus still uncertain, but developments in the near term are likely to prove decisive as the currency balances at the tipping point of mainstream acceptance or a speculative implosion.”

They also warned that improvements to cryptocurrency systems would be needed to drive wider adoption, and said increased regulation could drive away some of the most innovative players.

Citi analysts concluded, “There are a host of risks and obstacles that stand in the way of Bitcoin progress. But weighing these potential hurdles against the opportunities leads to the conclusion that Bitcoin is at a tipping point.”

Read the full report here:

All of which lifted bitcoin significantly overnight…

Source: Bloomberg

“The panic of yesterday was so unnecessary. Welcome to the markets, dips happen. Part of the game,” Cointelegraph Markets analyst Michaël van de Poppe wrote on Monday.

“We just continue grinding and Bitcoin is just starting. Relax.”

MicroStrategy reportedly bought the dip, adding another 328 bitcoin for about $15 million in cash, swelling its holdings of the cryptocurrency and sending the company’s shares 7% higher in premarket trading.

The world’s largest publicly-traded business intelligence company now owns close to 90,859 bitcoin, which were acquired at an aggregate purchase price of about $2.19 billion and an average purchase price of around $24,063 per bitcoin, it said on Monday.

Additionally, Ethereum has ripped back near $1550 (after hitting a $1200 handle briefly over the weekend), helped by broad flows and positive comments from billionaire Mark Cuban.

Source: Bloomberg

In an extensive interview with Decrypt, the billionaire “Shark Tank” shark and owner of the Dallas Mavericks says Ethereum smart contracts will spell big trouble for big SaaS (software as a service) companies.

The “simplification of smart contracts” on the Ethereum blockchain, Cuban said, is “what gets me excited. Because now, all these SaaS companies, all these different companies, I could see just disrupting the f–k out of them. I mean, it’s just like, imagine an accounting system where you have trained accountants that you pay as accountants, and there’s, you know, thirty, forty validators around the world that are validating, and when I say pay, you pay them in tokens… And now, they look at a general ledger entry, and they all have to have consensus on the general ledger entry, and they don’t know each other. There’d be no Enrons. You wouldn’t have the level of fraud that you have now.”

Cuban, who recently said he bought some Bitcoin through Coinbase years ago and simply didn’t talk about it publicly, has now made clear he sees more exciting potential in Ethereum than Bitcoin.

“Bitcoin is kind of stuck with store of value, even though there is a blockchain there,” Cuban told Decrypt

“That’s more just for confirming transactions that take place, you know, with Bitcoin buying and selling, where now with Ethereum, with smart contracts, you know, I’m teaching myself Solidity right now, it’s not hard if you’ve done any programming languages… And so now you can start to see, and I started to see, the simplicity of creating smart contracts that are then stored in full on the blockchain, which are then immutable, right, and now you can start seeing what other things can happen with this.”

None of that is to say that Cuban doesn’t believe in Bitcoin as an investment. He says Bitcoin is “better than gold,” and adds that, “whether it’s Bitcoin or Ethereum, or even maybe some other choices, when somebody owns that, they become their own personal banker.”

Watch the full interview here.

Not everyone is so bullish. Michael “Big Short” Burry took to Twitter to warn:

$BTC is a speculative bubble that poses more risk than opportunity despite most of the proponents being correct in their arguments for why it is relevant at this point in history,” the investor wrote before deleting the tweet as usual.

“If you do not know how much leverage is involved in the run-up, you may not know enough to own it,” he added.

Burry specifically warned:

“Fads today (#BTC, #EV, SAAS #memestocks) are like housing in 2007 and fiber/.com/comm/routers in 1999,” he said.

“Those saying me and Munger and Singer are so out of touch are not considering that we have seen this all before, and not just once,” he said, referring to recent warnings about market speculation from Berkshire’s Charlie Munger and hedge-fund billionaire Paul Singer.

“The market is dancing on a knife’s edge.”

Finally, Third Point’s Dan Loeb got rather cerebral on cryptocurrencies, but did seem to come down more on the positive side than negative:

I’ve been doing a deep dive into crypto lately.   It is a real test of being intellectually open to new and controversial ideas.   Culturally I compare bridging the crypto world with the old as akin to finding a portal @chbetween two distinct worlds in the multiverse.

Also, maintaining healthy skepticism while also deepening one’s understanding requires one to engage in what Steve Jobs (and Fitzgerald before him) described as requisite for a superior intellect:  “to maintain two opposed ideas in ones mind and retain the ability to function“

Another conflict to overcome is the idea that being late to the crypto party will inevitably lead to one taking the sucker seat at a high stakes poker table versus this still being early days in what is just now being adopted in the mainstream.

We give the last word to Citi, who seem much less conflicted than Loeb: “Bitcoin is becoming the de facto ‘North Star’ of the digital asset space, with its trajectory being seen as a compass for the evolution of the broader ecosystem.”

Tyler Durden
Mon, 03/01/2021 – 09:17

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/3bJF1fO Tyler Durden

Former French President Nicolas Sarkozy Sentenced To Prison In Humiliating Corruption Conviction

Former French President Nicolas Sarkozy Sentenced To Prison In Humiliating Corruption Conviction

A Paris court has found former French President Nicolas Sarkozy guilty of corruption – which is only the second time in modern history that a French head of state has gone down on such a charge – for which he’s been issued a sentence of three years in prison, two of which have been suspended.

Despite the prison sentence it’s expected however that the 66-year old will serve the non-suspended one year portion on probation – with an electronic bracelet and subject to a curfew.

Former French President Nicolas Sarkozy arriving in court, Getty Images

Presiding Judge Christine Mée described in the ruling that the “particularly serious” crimes involving France’s leader who was in office 2007-2012 “using his status” as president to peddle influence for personal gain and violate state secrecy for political gain.

Sarkozy “knew what [he] was doing was wrong”, the judge wrote, adding that his actions and those of a public magistrate and personal lawyer – both which were also found guilty of aiding in the scheme – had given the public “a very bad image of justice”.

As BBC described the former president had been “found guilty of trying to bribe a magistrate by offering a prestigious job in Monaco in return for information about a criminal inquiry into his political party.”

The key evidence came from tapped phone calls going back to 2014:

The case centered on conversations between Azibert and Herzog, which were taped by investigators looking into claims that Sarkozy accepted illicit payments from the L’Oreal heiress Liliane Bettencourt for his 2007 presidential campaign.

The phone line they tapped was a secret number set up in a fictional name, Paul Bismuth, through which Sarkozy communicated with his lawyer.

Still influential among conservatives it caps a series of humiliations which continued after his failed 2012 reelection bid. Sarkozy is also the first French former head of state to appear in the dock.

He’s expected to appeal the ruling.

Tyler Durden
Mon, 03/01/2021 – 09:03

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2PqGpg1 Tyler Durden

China Sends Ominous Signal: Mfg PMIs Slide To 9 Month Lows As Credit Impulse Fizzles

China Sends Ominous Signal: Mfg PMIs Slide To 9 Month Lows As Credit Impulse Fizzles

China’s economy was the first to recover from the covid collapse thanks to trillions of credit pumped into the economy. It now appears to be the first to also reverse the expansion and shrink as the tidal wave of credit comes to an end.

Back in December, we first pointed out that after a tremendous surge for much of the prior two years, China’s credit impulse had peaked (with real rates still tracking the impulse with the usual 12 month delay)…

… with SocGen forecasting that a big slump was forthcoming to China’s credit impulse…

… one which, like a global tidal wave of disinflation, would have profound consequences for various inflation-sensitive assets around the world.

Over the weekend, this fading in China’s credit impulse was on full display in China’s own official mfg PMI which shrank to the lowest level since March, dropping to 52.4 and missing expectations with a sub-index of new export orders slipping into contraction…

… with a similar decline recorded in Monday’s Caixin mfg PMI, which fell to 50.9 in February from 51.5 in January and below the 51.4 consensus. New orders and production sub-indexes implied growth momentum moderated in the manufacturing sector in February, in line with the official NBS Mfg PMI.

Some more details on the Caixin PMI from Goldman:

China’s Caixin manufacturing PMI fell to 50.9 in February from 51.5 in January, though still in expansionary territory. Most sub-indexes implied growth momentum moderated in the manufacturing sector. The production sub-index dropped to 51.9 in February from 52.5, and the new orders sub-index fell to 51.0 from 52.2. The new export order sub-index edged up only marginally to 47.5 from 47.4, still below 50 due to the resurgence of COVID-19 infections globally as highlighted by surveyed companies.

Surveyed companies remained cautious in hiring and the employment sub-index fell slightly to 48.1 from 49.6 in January. The raw materials inventory sub-index rose by 0.6pp to 48.8, but the finished goods inventory index edged down to 50.3 from 51.0. Stock shortages and travel restrictions continued to affect suppliers’ delivery in February. Price indicators suggest inflationary pressures moderated slightly but remained relatively high due to rising raw material prices and transportation costs according to the survey. The input price index fell slightly to 58.1 from 58.9 in January, and the output price index was 53.5, moderating from 54.9 in January. On future output, surveyed companies remained optimistic and expect “rising client demand globally once the pandemic comes to an end and planned product releases make debut”.

Goldman’s conclusion: Both the NBS and Caixin manufacturing PMIs moderated more than expected in February, with sub-indexes showing slower growth in the manufacturing sector. That said, both surveys indicated optimistic sentiment from manufacturers on future output.”

If that wasn’t enough, a former finance minister warned fiscal risks remain “extremely severe with risks and challenges”, with low revenue for five years ahead and no prospect of any spending cuts ahead, suggesting policy may need to be tightened at some point

In kneejerk response, China’s 10-year government bond futures closed 0.3% higher, the most since Dec. 22, while In the cash bond market, the yield on 10-year sovereign notes dropped 2 bps to 3.26%, having barely budged in the past week and completely oblivious to the turmoil gripping the rest of the global bond market.

“Investors may think the economic recovery in China has become less strong than expected, which could stoke risk-off sentiment in the short run and help bonds,” said Hao Zhou, senior emerging markets economist at Commerzbank AG in Singapore.

Why is this important? Because just as the world is freaking out over rising yields and global reflation, the primary dynamo of global inflationary trends, China’s economy, is now fading and its credit impulse is set to shrink rapidly. Not only will this affect reflation assets but also push yields lower. However, thanks to the 6-12 month diffusion lag of China’s credit impulse, we first have about 9 more months of higher yields and commodity prices before the hangover finally arrives.

Tyler Durden
Mon, 03/01/2021 – 08:49

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Biden Backs Amazon Workers In Alabama To Unionize

Biden Backs Amazon Workers In Alabama To Unionize

Amazon workers in a warehouse in Alabama have received new support to unionize on Sunday, that is, from President Biden, saying workers should be able to make their own choice about unionizing, free from corporate pressure, according to Bloomberg

Jennifer Epstein, White House reporter at Bloomberg, said the Biden administration released a new direct-to-camera video featuring Biden who weighed in on the push for Amazon warehouse employees at the Bessemer, Alabama, Amazon Fulfillment Center, to unionize. He told workers to make their “voices heard,” saying it’s up to them to unionize. 

“Let me be really clear: it’s not up to me to decide whether anyone should decide a union. But let me be even more clear: it’s not up to an employer to decide that either. The choice to join a union is up to the workers – full stop, full stop,” the president said. 

He continued: “Every worker should have a free and fair choice to join a union. The law guarantees that choice. And it’s your right, not that of an employer, it’s your right, no employer can take that right away. So make your voice heard.”

Here’s the full video released by the White House late Sunday evening. 

As we’ve previously noted, 5,800 workers at the Bessemer fulfillment center began to vote on unionization in early February. The ballot asked them if they wanted to join the Retail, Wholesale, and Department Store Union (RWDSU). 

If the Bessemer fulfillment center joins RWDSU, it will provide workers with bargaining power to improve pay, increase training, improve safety standards, and other critical benefits. 

The push by workers at the Bessemer facility is the largest movement to unionize in Amazon’s existence. 

Amazon’s outgoing CEO and founder, Jeff Bezos, who added tens of billions to his net worth during the pandemic, has been against the movement for his low-skilled workers to unionize. In late January, ahead of the vote, Amazon argued against mail-in ballots, citing the risk of fraud.

Biden’s allies at the RWDSU recently said it was time for the president to weigh in on Bessemer’s developments. 

“It’s important for the administration to demonstrate during this campaign its support for unionization,” Stuart Appelbaum, president of RWDSU, who hopes to represent the Alabama warehouse workers. 

“As President Biden points out, the best way for working people to protect themselves and their families is by organizing into unions,” Appelbaum said in a statement after the Biden’s video was released last night. “And that is why so many working women and men are fighting for a union at the Amazon facility in Bessemer, Alabama.”

So the question now will Bezo’s WaPo slam Biden for supporting the unionization push? 

Tyler Durden
Mon, 03/01/2021 – 08:29

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Public Schools Are the Best Advertisements for Homeschooling

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Homeschooling was supposed to be a temporary pandemic-era expedient and many students will, undoubtedly, return to traditional classrooms once COVID-19 is a memory. But growing familiarity with do-it-yourself education, the continuing slow-motion disaster engulfing government-run schools, and long-term changes in the way we live and work are likely to permanently transform learning. Homeschooling in all its myriad forms is here to stay.

Part of the issue is that public school bureaucrats and teachers unions seem dedicated to testing families’ patience.

“At the beginning of the school year we had a good amount of folks calling, but it hasn’t really let up at all,” Spencer Mason of North Carolinians for Home Education recently told The North State Journal. “Now it’s people who are frustrated with the way that public schools have been going.”

Across the country, public schools struggle with their pandemic responses. Teachers unions battle school officials and have even gone on strikes and sick-outs to prevent in-person education. Wrestling matches between unions that don’t want their members to have to show up for their paychecks and government officials often under their thumbs leave many parents uncertain as to when children might return to a classroom.

“Biden has pledged to reopen most schools for in-person instruction by May, but some experts fear the revised guidance published by his administration could make it harder for some schools to do so – even by next fall,” CNN noted February 28. “In some places, school authorities face strong opposition from powerful teachers’ unions,” the report added.

Disruption of the public school could have been tolerable if they’d adapted to the new environment and offered good-quality remote education through online platforms. It’s certainly possible—many charter schools and private educators mastered this approach years ago. But that wasn’t the case as government schools fumbled teaching students, or even making sure they show up for lessons. 

“[T]he cumulative learning loss could be substantial, especially in mathematics—with students on average likely to lose five to nine months of learning by the end of this school year,” concluded a December 2020 report by McKinsey & Company.

Education bureaucrats compounded the problem by, apparently, deciding that a health crisis was a great time to jettison anything that might attract parents and students to their institutions. Boston Public Schools, for example, suspended enrollment in gifted programs in part because participants don’t precisely reflect the demographic makeup of the city’s population. 

“There’s been a lot of inequities that have been brought to the light in the pandemic that we have to address,” Superintendent Brenda Cassellius told WGBH of the decision. “There’s a lot of work we have to do in the district to be antiracist and have policies where all of our students have a fair shot at an equitable and excellent education.”

Illinois, for its part, just mandated that teacher training programs adopt instruction on ideologically charged concepts including “implicit bias,” “historical inequities,” and “systems of oppression.”

“Critics are rightly concerned that the overhaul embeds politics into teacher training,” the Chicago Tribune editorialized in mid-February.

These fiascos can only encourage the ongoing exodus from government schools to the competition. In the fall, NPR found “enrollment declines in dozens of school districts across 20 states.”

In Massachusetts, “some 13,166 students from public schools have transferred into private schools this fall, compared with 7,299 transfers the previous year,” the Boston Globe reported in November. “Many families are also giving home schooling a try this year, with 7,188 students withdrawing from public schools to receive instruction led and chosen by their parents or another adult, compared to 802 the previous year.” 

“During an unusual school year, Illinois public schools saw student enrollment drop in greater numbers than expected, according to recent projections by the state board of education,” according to a February story in Chalkbeat Chicago. “Board members said they suspected students were lost to homeschooling, private schools, or public school districts in other states.”

Families have been forced to improvise by the failures of public schools, which were once the default education choice, by the abandonment of programs, and by the accelerated politicization of classrooms. They’ve enrolled their kids in private schools when budgets allowed, taught their children at home, reinvented homeschooling co-ops as pandemic pods, and tried out competent remote-learning options. Many discover that previously daunting choices are pretty enticing once they’re familiar.

“[P]arents’ dissatisfaction with the public education system and a newfound preference for working from home could lead to a permanent increase in the popularity of homeschooling,” writes Anne Dennon, who covers higher education trends, policy, and student issues for BestColleges. “Many academics who study homeschooling say the pandemic’s boost to the homeschool movement will last.”

Permanent growth in homeschooling is in the works, Christopher Lubienski, a professor of education policy at Indiana University, advised Education Week, “partly because people who haven’t really thought about it before suddenly saw themselves forced into [home schooling], and then realizing that it’s something they can see themselves doing.”

“I had no desire to homeschool. I actually did not want to homeschool,” Kristin Kanipe told North Carolina’s WUNC of her pre-pandemic reaction to the idea. “And now I love it.”

Easing the transition is not just the collapse of the public schools, but also changing habits. Both the Bureau of Labor Statistics and McKinsey predict big growth in people working from home after the pandemic ends, up to 25 percent of the workforce. Experts interviewed by Pew Research also foresee a more tech-driven life for both better and worse. On the positive side will be expansion in “a robust marketplace of education choices that allow students to create personalized schooling menus.”

Parents working from home are better able to homeschool their children, or enroll them in a virtual program of their choice, than are those who have to go to an office every day. They’re also more likely to have the Internet connections and devices needed to take advantage of such opportunities. And, importantly, they’re inherently more comfortable with family-based options that were thrust upon them but which, in many cases, have become very welcome.

Americans didn’t plan on a national experiment in homeschooling and other education innovations. But floundering public schools are a great inducement to take the plunge.

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