Manchin: Biden’s New Spending Plan Relies on ‘Shell Games’ and ‘Budget Gimmicks’


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Sen. Joe Manchin (D–W.Va.), whose vote may very well determine the eventual fate of President Joe Biden’s biggest legislative initiative, reiterated his opposition to any bill that adds to the national debt or risks adding fuel to inflation.

“I’m open to supporting a final bill that helps move our country forward, but I’m equally open to voting against a bill that hurts our country,” Manchin said at a press conference Monday. He noted that both Medicare and Social Security are on track to become insolvent—an arrangement that would impose mandatory benefit cuts across the board—within the next 12 years. Without addressing those looming concerns, Manchin said, any bill that “expands social programs and irresponsibly adds to our $29 trillion in national debt” would be unwise.

When Democrats decided in the spring to split President Joe Biden’s proposed “Build Back Better” plan into two pieces, it was supposed to set up a delicate legislative pas de deux. Instead, they’re playing a game of chicken. The roughly $1 trillion infrastructure plan (which includes about $500 billion in new spending and another $500 billion in repurposed spending) enjoyed bipartisan support when it cleared the Senate in July. But it has languished in the House since then: Progressive Democrats are unwilling to send it to Biden’s desk until the Senate agrees to pass a social spending package that would likely include a series of tax increases.

That spending bill, which Democrats hope to maneuver through the Senate via the reconciliation process, started out as a $3.5 trillion measure. Last week, Biden announced a supposed compromise in an attempt to appease Manchin and Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D–Ariz.), who have opposed the higher taxes and borrowing necessary to finance the larger proposal.

Manchin’s comments suggest that the senator will not give his approval to that slimmed-down proposal without additional scrutiny.

“What I see are shell games,” Manchin said. “Budget gimmicks,” he said, would make Biden’s $1.75 trillion proposal cost almost twice that much in the long run.

One of the biggest gimmicks in the bill has to do with the expanded, refundable child tax credit program, which will cost about $110 billion annually. Democrats are proposing to extend it for only a single year, thus making the bill’s long-term costs seem significantly lower than if they had to account for 10 years of spending, as is the norm. The framework also seems to overestimate how much revenue would be generated by various proposals, potentially leaving big gaps that would have to be filled by borrowing.

“This is a recipe for an economic crisis,” Manchin added. “None of us should ever misrepresent to the American people what the real cost of legislation is.”

Manchin offered pointed criticism of the progressive wing of the House Democratic caucus, saying that lawmakers in the lower chamber should be given the opportunity to vote on the infrastructure plan even if the Senate has not approved the social spending bill. On Friday, Biden urged House leaders to vote on the infrastructure bill, but the impasse continues. Holding the infrastructure bill “hostage,” Manchin said, “is not going to work in getting my support for the reconciliation bill.”

The game of chicken continues.

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Dow Hits 36k, Small Caps Soar As Stocks Shrug Off Uber-Hawkish Fed Expectations

Dow Hits 36k, Small Caps Soar As Stocks Shrug Off Uber-Hawkish Fed Expectations

An extremely mixed day today with Small Caps exploding higher at the cash open and the rest of the majors limping lower early led by the long-duration-suffering tech-heavy Nasdaq (as rates rose). Stocks dipped on comments from Sen. Manchin who appeared to throw a wrench into the Democrats’ stimmy process gears, but that dip didn’t last. TSLA’s late-day panic-bid explosion higher lifted Nasdaq and S&P into the green…

TSLA is 80 points of the Nasdaq’s 100 points today.

That was the biggest Russell 2000 outperformance versus Nasdaq since early March…

Dow 36,000 was finally reached (but not held)…

The book was published in September 1999 and the authors guessed the 36,000 level would be reached in three to five years…

…not the 22 years it actually took. 

One of the authors, James Glassman, spoke to Bloomberg:

“What I do regret is intimating that Dow 36,000 was going to happen soon, that is, within a few years. The late Alan Meltzer, a serious economist and student of the Fed who gave our book a very nice blurb, told me, ‘Never associate a date with a number’. Good advice.”

In other words – never say anything you could be held accountable for.

Today’s farcical meltup in Small Caps was brought to you by a massive short-squeeze to start the month (the biggest short-squeeze since June) but we do note that the squeeze-ammo appeared to run in the afternoon…

Source: Bloomberg

And this ramp-fest in Small Caps (much more domestically-dependent companies by their nature) is occurring as the market prices in a dramatic rate-hike trajectory

Source: Bloomberg

TSLA was up almost 8% today, topping $1200…

SpotGamma explains WTF is going on!!!

MSFT surpassed AAPL as the largest market-cap company and TSLA is soaring relative to FB since it topped $1 trillion…

Source: Bloomberg

 

 

Treasury yields were higher today with the long-end underperforming (30Y +5bps, 5Y +1bps)…

Source: Bloomberg

30Y Yields remain below 2.00% still…

Source: Bloomberg

Interestingly, the 5s30s (flattening) and 2s5s (steepening) converged (the last two times we saw this convergence were quickly followed by recessions)…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar trod water today, holding Friday’s spike gains.

Source: Bloomberg

Crypto was choppy (but rebounded after late-day regulatory chatter about Stablecoins) with Bitcoin pump-n-dumping to end slightly higher but holding above $60k…

Source: Bloomberg

And Ethereum managing very modest gains, hovered around $4300 all day…

Source: Bloomberg

In other crypto news, SQUID  – the Squid Game Token – was a scam…

Gold rebounded today, erasing Friday’s loss but unable to get back to $1800…

Despite Biden’s demands, oil prices continued to rise with WTI nearing $85…

Finally, we note that today’s surge in rate-hike expectations is significantly more hawkish than The Fed expects and also implies a policy error before 2024 (when the market  implies The Fed folding on its normalization path once again)…

Source: Bloomberg

Tyler Durden
Mon, 11/01/2021 – 16:01

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A New Orleans Grandfather Will Get His Life Savings Back After DEA Agents Seized It


kermit-warren-DEA-foreiture_5F1A9153

The federal government has agreed to return a New Orleans man’s life savings after Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) agents seized it at an airport through a practice known as civil asset forfeiture.

The Institute for Justice, a libertarian public interest law firm, announced that federal prosecutors have agreed to dismiss the government’s case against roughly $28,000 in cash the DEA seized from Kermit Warren, a grandfather who says he was carrying the money to potentially buy a tow truck. Warren was never charged with a crime, but under civil asset forfeiture laws, police can seize property suspected of being connected to criminal activity, even when the owner hasn’t been charged or convicted of a crime.

Reason reported on Warren’s civil asset forfeiture case in August. Warren, a former longshoreman and shoeshiner, says he and his son had gotten laid off from their jobs last year during the COVID-19 lockdowns, and he was trying to turn a side business as a scrapper into a full-time venture. He and his son traveled to Ohio last November with the cash to purchase a tow truck. However, Warren claims the tow truck was too large for his needs, so he and his son bought a one-way ticket back home.

In the airport, three DEA agents stopped the two men and questioned them about the bag of cash they were carrying. The federal government didn’t file a complaint against Warren’s money until this April, claiming Warren and his son gave suspicious and incomplete answers about their travel itinerary and plans to buy the truck. Warren, who says he was panicking, also falsely claimed to be a retired police officer. Based on that, the agents concluded that Warren was involved in drug trafficking and seized his money.

Last Thursday, after the Institute for Justice provided pay stubs for Warren dating back to 2016 and text messages from the company that owned the tow truck, federal prosecutors agreed to dismiss the forfeiture complaint against Warren’s money and return it.

“I’m relieved that I will finally get my hard-earned savings back after a year of suffering,” Warren said in an Institute for Justice press release. “But what happened to me was wrong. The officers and prosecutors treated me like a criminal when all I was trying to do was improve my business and my life. For a year, they’ve left me struggling to survive a pandemic and a hurricane without my savings. I did nothing wrong, but until the law is changed so that everyone is protected, I am not going to have cash in my house anymore.”

There is nothing illegal about flying domestically with large amounts of cash, but local and federal law enforcement frequently stop travelers, search their luggage, and seize their cash on suspicion of drug trafficking, even if they find no drugs.

The DEA and Transportation Security Administration often flag airport travelers who exhibit supposedly suspicious behavior, such as purchasing one-way tickets with short turnaround times and traveling lightly. In 2016, a USA Today investigation found the DEA seized more than $209 million from at least 5,200 travelers in 15 major airports over the previous decade.

Law enforcement groups say civil asset forfeiture is an essential tool to fight organized crime, like drug trafficking, by targeting its illicit proceeds.

However, civil liberties groups say there are too few protections for innocent owners and too many incentives for police to seize property on flimsy suspicions. More than half of all U.S. states have passed some form of asset forfeiture reform because of those concerns.

The Institute for Justice is currently litigating a separate class-action lawsuit on behalf of people whose cash was seized by the DEA at airports. One of the lead plaintiffs in that case, Stacy Jones, had $43,167 in cash seized by the DEA as she was trying to fly home to Tampa, Florida, from Wilmington, North Carolina. Jones says the cash was from the sale of a used car, as well as money she and her husband intended to take to a casino.

One of the other named plaintiffs in the lawsuit, Terrence Rolin, a 79-year-old retired railroad engineer, had his life savings of $82,373 seized by the DEA after his daughter tried to take it on a flight out of Pittsburgh with the intent of depositing it in a bank. After the case went public, the DEA returned the money.

“Kermit’s case highlights how the federal government abuses civil forfeiture,” says Institute for Justice Senior Attorney Dan Alban. “It seizes cash on the flimsiest of pretexts—traveling with cash at an airport—and effectively forces people to prove their own innocence to get their money back. And even in a best-case scenario, it can take over a year for them to get their property back.”

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Zillow Scrambles To Punt 7,000 Homes For $2.8 Billion As AI Flipping Scheme Ends In Disaster

Zillow Scrambles To Punt 7,000 Homes For $2.8 Billion As AI Flipping Scheme Ends In Disaster

On Sunday we reported that Zillow Group’s AI-powered house flipping operation was a dismal failure – with 93% of homes in their Phoenix, Arizona portfolio (the company’s second largest) currently listed at less than what the real estate company had paid, as revealed by an Insider investigation.

Today, Bloomberg reports that Zillow is looking to unload approximately 7,000 homes for $2.8 billion after halting their iBuyer program, according to people familiar with the matter.

Zillow is likely to sell the houses to a multitude of buyers rather than packaging them in a single transaction, said the people, who asked not to be named because the matter is private.

Zillow recently said it would stop making new offers in its home-flipping operation for the remainder of the year. The decision came after the company tweaked the algorithms that power the business to make higher offers, leaving it with a bevy of winning bids just as home price appreciation cooled off a bit. -Bloomberg

In September, Zillow put a record number of homes on the market – with the lowest markups since November 2018 according to research firm YipitData, which also noted that the company had cut prices on almost half of its US listings in the 3rd quarter.

In the second quarter, Zillow bought over 3,800 houses towards their stated goal of acquiring 5,000 homes per month by 2024.

In Phoenix, 36.5% of properties currently for sale were listed below their purchase price, while the remainder of the 93% started higher, only to have price reductions.

Launched in 2017, Zillow’s iBuying arm uses a wide array of real-estate data with the goal of quickly and efficiently acquiring properties to flip for a profit. The program has vacuumed up properties across the country to flip, only to be met with fierce competition from services such as Redfin, Offerpad and Opendoor.

As we noted on Sunday, Zillow reports earnings on Tuesday.

Tyler Durden
Mon, 11/01/2021 – 15:50

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Treasury Hikes Borrowing Estimate To $1 Trillion This Quarter As It Scrambles To Rebuild Cash

Treasury Hikes Borrowing Estimate To $1 Trillion This Quarter As It Scrambles To Rebuild Cash

Six months ago, at the start of May when the Treasury was busy spending hundreds of billions of cash parked in the Fed’s Treasury General Account in a form of stealth QE, the US government surprised markets when it announced that it expected to release just $100BN in cash in May and June, bringing its total cash balance to $800BN by the end of June, and then just another $50BN lower three months later, or $750BN at the end of Sept. Additionally, the Treasury assumed a cash balance of approximately $450 billion at the expiration of the debt limit suspension on July 31 based on expected outflows under its cash management policies. And while the Treasury caveat that “the actual cash balance on July 31 may vary from this assumption based on changes to expected outflows in that period” its estimate was surprisingly spot on, with the latest Daily Treasury Statement showing $459 billion as of the end of July, not far from its forecast.

Then, three months later, the Treasury released yet another estimate of Treasury Marketable Borrowing which showed that the Treasury plans on borrowing almost $1.4 trillion in the second half of calendar 2021, it hopes of ending the year with $800 billion in cash – well below the $1.7 trillion in cash it held at the end of 2020 – and last but not least, assumes that a debt limit suspension or increase will be enacted.

Well, since then the debt ceiling has still not been lifted even if the Biden admin did get a two-month extension until early December, during which it can replenish some of its cash buffer, at which point another vote will be required either kicking the can again on the debt ceiling or lifting it outright. And as a result, the Treasury has been quite busy selling T-Bills and Cash Management Bills and rebuilding in the process draining some of the cash in the repo facility. As a reminder, the total cash holdings between the O/N repo facility and the TGA account have been mostly flate since July, and recent weeks have been no difference; it’s also why overnight the Fed’s reverse repo facility saw the biggest one day drop since Oct 1, as seventy-four participants took down $1.359 trillion, down $143 billion from $1.502 trillion on Oct. 29.

Which brings us to today’s latest quarterly edition of the Treasury’s marketable borrowing estimates, according to which the Treasury plans on issuing $1.015 trillion in net marketable debt in the Oct-Dec quarter, up $312BN from the Aug estimate of $703bln. This increase in borrowing estimates is due to the lower beginning cash balance in the Oct-Dec quarter, which was at just $215BN to start, far below the $750BN forecast in August. And since the Treasury hopes to grow that cash balance by $435BN to $650BN, or much more than the $50BN in cash growth previously forecast, that’s why the Treasury is expecting far greater net issuance this quarter.

In other words, the $385BN in additional cash this quarter will come from an incremental $312BN in additional net issuance. All of this is shown below:

US Treasury Sources and Uses table

Here is the breakdown directly from the Treasury:

  • During the October – December 2021 quarter, Treasury expects to borrow $1,015 billion in privately-held net marketable debt, assuming an end-of-December cash balance of $650 billion. The borrowing estimate is $312 billion higher than announced in August 2021, primarily due to the lower beginning of quarter balance, somewhat offset by a lower end-of-quarter balance and higher receipts.
  • During the January – March 2022 quarter, Treasury expects to borrow $476 billion in privately-held net marketable debt, assuming an end-of-March cash balance of $650 billion.

Of course, since far less cash was raised in the past quarter due to the continued debt ceiling overhang, during the July – September 2021 quarter, Treasury borrowed only $103 billion in privately-held net marketable debt (and ended the quarter with a cash balance of $215 billion). This is $570 billion less than the amount the Treasury had originally estimated back in August, when it forecast $673 billion in net marketable borrowing and assumed an end-of-September cash balance of $750 billion. The $570 billion decrease in borrowing resulted primarily from the decrease in the end-of-September cash balance and, to a less extent, from an increase in receipts and a decrease in expenditures.

The original and revised Treasury cash forecast is below – it shows that the Treasury now expects total cash to rise from $260 billion currently to $650 billion by year end.

The practical implications are familiar and similar to what we discussed last quarter: this continued cash rebuild is the equivalent of a liquidity drain, however since we are now seeing a liquidity shift out of the Repo facility and into the TGA, it likely won’t have much of an impact on asset prices at least until such time as the Fed’s taper and/or rate hikes also become a factor..

Tyler Durden
Mon, 11/01/2021 – 15:39

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A New Orleans Grandfather Will Get His Life Savings Back After DEA Agents Seized It


kermit-warren-DEA-foreiture_5F1A9153

The federal government has agreed to return a New Orleans man’s life savings after Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) agents seized it at an airport through a practice known as civil asset forfeiture.

The Institute for Justice, a libertarian public interest law firm, announced that federal prosecutors have agreed to dismiss the government’s case against roughly $28,000 in cash the DEA seized from Kermit Warren, a grandfather who says he was carrying the money to potentially buy a tow truck. Warren was never charged with a crime, but under civil asset forfeiture laws, police can seize property suspected of being connected to criminal activity, even when the owner hasn’t been charged or convicted of a crime.

Reason reported on Warren’s civil asset forfeiture case in August. Warren, a former longshoreman and shoeshiner, says he and his son had gotten laid off from their jobs last year during the COVID-19 lockdowns, and he was trying to turn a side business as a scrapper into a full-time venture. He and his son traveled to Ohio last November with the cash to purchase a tow truck. However, Warren claims the tow truck was too large for his needs, so he and his son bought a one-way ticket back home.

In the airport, three DEA agents stopped the two men and questioned them about the bag of cash they were carrying. The federal government didn’t file a complaint against Warren’s money until this April, claiming Warren and his son gave suspicious and incomplete answers about their travel itinerary and plans to buy the truck. Warren, who says he was panicking, also falsely claimed to be a retired police officer. Based on that, the agents concluded that Warren was involved in drug trafficking and seized his money.

Last Thursday, after the Institute for Justice provided pay stubs for Warren dating back to 2016 and text messages from the company that owned the tow truck, federal prosecutors agreed to dismiss the forfeiture complaint against Warren’s money and return it.

“I’m relieved that I will finally get my hard-earned savings back after a year of suffering,” Warren said in an Institute for Justice press release. “But what happened to me was wrong. The officers and prosecutors treated me like a criminal when all I was trying to do was improve my business and my life. For a year, they’ve left me struggling to survive a pandemic and a hurricane without my savings. I did nothing wrong, but until the law is changed so that everyone is protected, I am not going to have cash in my house anymore.”

There is nothing illegal about flying domestically with large amounts of cash, but local and federal law enforcement frequently stop travelers, search their luggage, and seize their cash on suspicion of drug trafficking, even if they find no drugs.

The DEA and Transportation Security Administration often flag airport travelers who exhibit supposedly suspicious behavior, such as purchasing one-way tickets with short turnaround times and traveling lightly. In 2016, a USA Today investigation found the DEA seized more than $209 million from at least 5,200 travelers in 15 major airports over the previous decade.

Law enforcement groups say civil asset forfeiture is an essential tool to fight organized crime, like drug trafficking, by targeting its illicit proceeds.

However, civil liberties groups say there are too few protections for innocent owners and too many incentives for police to seize property on flimsy suspicions. More than half of all U.S. states have passed some form of asset forfeiture reform because of those concerns.

The Institute for Justice is currently litigating a separate class-action lawsuit on behalf of people whose cash was seized by the DEA at airports. One of the lead plaintiffs in that case, Stacy Jones, had $43,167 in cash seized by the DEA as she was trying to fly home to Tampa, Florida, from Wilmington, North Carolina. Jones says the cash was from the sale of a used car, as well as money she and her husband intended to take to a casino.

One of the other named plaintiffs in the lawsuit, Terrence Rolin, a 79-year-old retired railroad engineer, had his life savings of $82,373 seized by the DEA after his daughter tried to take it on a flight out of Pittsburgh with the intent of depositing it in a bank. After the case went public, the DEA returned the money.

“Kermit’s case highlights how the federal government abuses civil forfeiture,” says Institute for Justice Senior Attorney Dan Alban. “It seizes cash on the flimsiest of pretexts—traveling with cash at an airport—and effectively forces people to prove their own innocence to get their money back. And even in a best-case scenario, it can take over a year for them to get their property back.”

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The Supreme Court Declines To Determine if You Have a First Amendment Right To Film the Police


v1

The Supreme Court has just refused to hear a case at the nexus of the First Amendment and police abuse, declining to hear a petition from a man who says his free speech rights were violated when a group of cops searched his tablet without a warrant and attempted to delete a video he took of them beating a suspect.

Officers with the Denver Police Department (DPD) cornered Levi Frasier in the summer of 2014 after they noticed he had recorded an altercation moments prior. The video showed a cop punching a suspect in the face six times while executing an arrest over an alleged drug deal—the man had a sock in his mouth that the cops thought was contraband—and it captured a different officer throwing a woman to the ground by her ankle when she approached the scene screaming. Upon noticing Frasier, DPD Officer Russell Bothwell shouted “Camera!” and the group proceeded to harass him for the footage. Frasier says the police implied they would jail him if he refused to produce the clip. “Well, we could do this the easy way or we could do this the hard way,” Officer Christopher L. Evans reportedly said, pointing to his squad car. Despite Frasier’s protestations, the police then confiscated the tablet and went through it without the owner’s permission.

Those officers were given qualified immunity, a legal doctrine that allows a slew of state actors to infringe on your rights if the way they went about doing so has not specifically been ruled unconstitutional by the Supreme Court or the same federal circuit. It’s a granular standard that has seen government officials get off for assaulting and arresting a man for standing outside of his own home, for shooting and killing a man who had been sleeping in his car, for beating a man after pulling him over for broken lights, for leaving an innocent man’s home in ruins after conducting a SWAT raid on the wrong house, and for stealing hundreds of thousands of dollars. Without a prior ruling with identical facts, the victims in the above scenarios were not allowed to state their claims before a jury.

That standard is particularly egregious here, because the DPD enacted a policy in 2007 informing officers that the public has a constitutional right to film them on duty. But that wasn’t good enough, according to the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Tenth Circuit, which ruled in March that the only permissible avenue for overcoming qualified immunity is to find that perfect court precedent.

“Judicial decisions are the only valid interpretive source of the content of clearly established law; whatever training the officers received concerning the First Amendment was irrelevant to the clearly-established-law inquiry,” wrote Judge Jerome A. Holmes of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 10th Circuit. With the high court’s rejection today, that ruling will remain intact.

The rationale for qualified immunity is that officials should be free from vacuous lawsuits and thus deserve to be put “on notice” as to what is and is not constitutional behavior. From the 10th Circuit’s opinion, we are to deduce that obscure court precedents are more valuable at accomplishing that end than a department’s own stated policies, even though one would expect most government employees to be more familiar with the latter than the former.

Those training guidelines will now “somewhat lose their force,” says Anya Bidwell, an attorney at the Institute for Justice, a public interest firm. Cops have less reason to follow department rules if they know the federal courts will decline to hold them accountable for breaking those very rules. In shielding a group of rogue government employees, the court inadvertently weakened the public’s First Amendment rights.

“What’s particularly stunning here is that the people who wrote the training were able to correctly synthesize the law and conclude that the officers’ actions violated [a] constitutional right,” says Ari Cohn, free speech counsel at TechFreedom, an advocacy group focused on the intersection of technology and the First Amendment. “To rule that qualified immunity protects them, even though the department correctly pieced together the clearly established law to train them that such conduct is unlawful, simply because a court hadn’t ruled on that particular fact pattern, is extreme judicial hubris.”

The 1st, 3rd, 5th, 7th, 9th, and 11th Circuits have all acknowledged a First Amendment right to film the police. Had those officers misbehaved in a location subject to one of those federal circuit courts, they would not have been so lucky.

And while the 10th Circuit acknowledged that DPD training invoked a constitutional right to film the police, the court danced around coming to any conclusion on that subject. “We do not consider, nor opine on, whether Mr. Frasier actually had a First Amendment right to record the police performing their official duties in public spaces,” Holmes wrote, leaving officers in that jurisdiction free to violate the public’s rights in the same way again without fear of recourse.

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The Supreme Court Declines To Determine if You Have a First Amendment Right To Film the Police


v1

The Supreme Court has just refused to hear a case at the nexus of the First Amendment and police abuse, declining to hear a petition from a man who says his free speech rights were violated when a group of cops searched his tablet without a warrant and attempted to delete a video he took of them beating a suspect.

Officers with the Denver Police Department (DPD) cornered Levi Frasier in the summer of 2014 after they noticed he had recorded an altercation moments prior. The video showed a cop punching a suspect in the face six times while executing an arrest over an alleged drug deal—the man had a sock in his mouth that the cops thought was contraband—and it captured a different officer throwing a woman to the ground by her ankle when she approached the scene screaming. Upon noticing Frasier, DPD Officer Russell Bothwell shouted “Camera!” and the group proceeded to harass him for the footage. Frasier says the police implied they would jail him if he refused to produce the clip. “Well, we could do this the easy way or we could do this the hard way,” Officer Christopher L. Evans reportedly said, pointing to his squad car. Despite Frasier’s protestations, the police then confiscated the tablet and went through it without the owner’s permission.

Those officers were given qualified immunity, a legal doctrine that allows a slew of state actors to infringe on your rights if the way they went about doing so has not specifically been ruled unconstitutional by the Supreme Court or the same federal circuit. It’s a granular standard that has seen government officials get off for assaulting and arresting a man for standing outside of his own home, for shooting and killing a man who had been sleeping in his car, for beating a man after pulling him over for broken lights, for leaving an innocent man’s home in ruins after conducting a SWAT raid on the wrong house, and for stealing hundreds of thousands of dollars. Without a prior ruling with identical facts, the victims in the above scenarios were not allowed to state their claims before a jury.

That standard is particularly egregious here, because the DPD enacted a policy in 2007 informing officers that the public has a constitutional right to film them on duty. But that wasn’t good enough, according to the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Tenth Circuit, which ruled in March that the only permissible avenue for overcoming qualified immunity is to find that perfect court precedent.

“Judicial decisions are the only valid interpretive source of the content of clearly established law; whatever training the officers received concerning the First Amendment was irrelevant to the clearly-established-law inquiry,” wrote Judge Jerome A. Holmes of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 10th Circuit. With the high court’s rejection today, that ruling will remain intact.

The rationale for qualified immunity is that officials should be free from vacuous lawsuits and thus deserve to be put “on notice” as to what is and is not constitutional behavior. From the 10th Circuit’s opinion, we are to deduce that obscure court precedents are more valuable at accomplishing that end than a department’s own stated policies, even though one would expect most government employees to be more familiar with the latter than the former.

Those training guidelines will now “somewhat lose their force,” says Anya Bidwell, an attorney at the Institute for Justice, a public interest firm. Cops have less reason to follow department rules if they know the federal courts will decline to hold them accountable for breaking those very rules. In shielding a group of rogue government employees, the court inadvertently weakened the public’s First Amendment rights.

“What’s particularly stunning here is that the people who wrote the training were able to correctly synthesize the law and conclude that the officers’ actions violated [a] constitutional right,” says Ari Cohn, free speech counsel at TechFreedom, an advocacy group focused on the intersection of technology and the First Amendment. “To rule that qualified immunity protects them, even though the department correctly pieced together the clearly established law to train them that such conduct is unlawful, simply because a court hadn’t ruled on that particular fact pattern, is extreme judicial hubris.”

The 1st, 3rd, 5th, 7th, 9th, and 11th Circuits have all acknowledged a First Amendment right to film the police. Had those officers misbehaved in a location subject to one of those federal circuit courts, they would not have been so lucky.

And while the 10th Circuit acknowledged that DPD training invoked a constitutional right to film the police, the court danced around coming to any conclusion on that subject. “We do not consider, nor opine on, whether Mr. Frasier actually had a First Amendment right to record the police performing their official duties in public spaces,” Holmes wrote, leaving officers in that jurisdiction free to violate the public’s rights in the same way again without fear of recourse.

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Dead & Beautiful Stretches Vampire Metaphors to the Breaking Point


DeadBeautiful_1161x653

Dead & Beautiful. Available Thursday, November 4, on Shudder.

Somebody call Robert Stack. What inexplicable tic of marketing numbnuttedness led AMC’s horror-genre streaming service Shudder to delay the premiere of Chinese vampire saga Dead & Beautiful until the week after Halloween? Can we expect It’s a Wonderful Life at Easter and Caligula on Valentine’s Day?

Not that Dead & Beautiful is exactly epic in the annals of fang-banger flicks. Obsessively pursuing its central and overworked metaphor, that vampirism is a species of class warfare, D&B inadvertently turns dismayingly literal, a lush but ultimately lifeless spectacle. But it has some biting humor (yes, that’s a joke) and enticing decolletage along the way. If you forgot to have a Halloween party, you could do worse than to build a late one around a screening of this.

A joint Dutch-Taiwanese production without significant theatrical release that’s getting its first real screening on Shudder, D&B is a tale of five obscenely wealthy Taipei twenty-somethings (all played by young Asian and European actors with little if any American exposure) besotted with the exquisite ennui of the rich and beautiful. They wander a gorgeously desolate landscape of Lamborghini and Gucci, empty clubs and hotels that, like their lives, are dazzling but empty. They beat and abuse anybody they encounter—including themselves—just because they can.

Inevitably, one of their increasingly desperate attempts to relieve boredom—a nighttime hike through a rugged jungle once inhabited by ancient headhunters—goes badly. They awake from a drugged sleep with their teeth morphed into fangs and their elderly guide covered with bloody bite marks. The conclusion, that they’ve become literal and not just figurative vampires, seems obvious—and, once they get over the surprise (“I’m calling my helicopter!” shouts one) and away from the dawning sun, they’re curiously undismayed. They even blog about it.

Experiments with chewing gum and store security mirrors soon follow, and then transfused blood sipped from brandy snifters. Soon they’re out on the nighttime sidewalks, their fangs concealed by COVID masks, stalking prey, boredom evaporated by the moonlight. It’s not far to the double-dog dare of the nosferatu world: Bite me.

When Dead & Beautiful is not dwelling excessively on the soullessness of its protagonists, it can be quite amusing. Acts of awesome cultural appropriation (the kids maintain Bram Stoker stole Dracula not from Romanian history as European ethnocentrists would have it, but from oral histories of those Taiwanese headhunters) are followed by panicky millennial identity crises. “There’s something strange about being a Chinese vampire,” one of the young men complains to another. “We usually see white vampires, or black vampires, like Wesley Snipes.” What must it be like to be so young and callow you don’t remember The Legend Of The 7 Golden Vampires? Another reports a triumph of vampire mental gymnastics: He successfully clouded the mind of a 7-11 counter worker.

But like most heavily metaphored shows, D&B is more about style than action or characters, and it eventually collapses from the strain of its own weighty symbolism. (A conclusion that feels highly tacked-on does not help.) Even allegorical fangs have to penetrate the skin at some point, or concede to the observation of Shagal the Jewish nosferatu of The Fearless Vampire Killers when confronted by raging peasant brandishing a crucifix: “Oy vey, have you got the wrong vampire.”

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Kavanaugh Highlights Texas Abortion Law’s Threat to ‘Second Amendment Rights, Free Exercise of Religion Rights, Free Speech Rights’


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Texas law S.B. 8 bans pre-viability abortions, which is something that Texas lawmakers are specifically prohibited from doing under existing U.S. Supreme Court precedent. To dodge legal accountability in federal court, those state lawmakers outsourced S.B. 8’s enforcement to private actors. According to the law, “any person” may sue “any person who…aids or abets the performance or inducement of abortion” and win at least a $10,000 bounty plus legal fees if the civil suit is successful. Because no state official is doing the enforcing, Texas maintains, no state official may face a pre-enforcement proceeding in federal court over this obvious denial of a judicially recognized constitutional right.

The U.S. Supreme Court heard oral arguments today in two related cases that question whether Texas’ novel legal scheme should be allowed to stand. Justice Brett Kavanaugh cut to the heart of the matter, asking Texas Solicitor General Judd Stone about “the implications of your position for other constitutional rights.”

What if a state passed a law that says “everyone who sells an AR-15 is liable for a million dollars to any citizen,” Kavanaugh asked the Texas official. “Would that kind of law be exempt from pre-enforcement review in federal court?”

Stone conceded that his theory would shield that gun control law too. “My answers on whether or not federal court review is available does not turn on the nature of the right,” he told Kavanaugh.

So “Second Amendment rights, free exercise of religion rights, free speech rights,” Kavanaugh emphasized, could all “be targeted by other states” using the Texas abortion law as a model. “And you also said that the amount of the penalty doesn’t matter, a million dollars per sale,” Kavanaugh added. “A state passes a law [that says] anyone who declines to provide a good or service for use in a same-sex marriage, a million dollars if sued by anyone in the state, that’s exempt from pre-enforcement review?”

“Is that a yes?” Kavanaugh pressed the Texas official.

“Yes, your honor,” Stone replied.

Later, Justice Sonia Sotomayor picked up on Kavanaugh’s line of questioning. “A state dissatisfied with [District of Columbia v.] Heller says anyone who possesses a firearm anywhere is subject to litigation by any private citizen anywhere in the country and gets a million-dollar bounty,” Sotomayor said to Stone. “So this is not limited to abortion.” This is about any right “that a state is dissatisfied with.”

“Your point,” Sotomayor told Stone, “is that no matter how much a state intends to chill the exercise of a constitutional right…that does not give anyone a right to a federal forum when the state has deputized every citizen to act on its behalf.”

Kavanaugh and Sotomayor are correct. If allowed to stand, the structure of S.B. 8 will be copied by every state legislature that wants to restrict an unpopular right that the Supreme Court has recognized. That outcome should worry Americans of all political stripes.

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