US Manufacturing Surveys Slump In October, New Orders Slide, Prices Surge

US Manufacturing Surveys Slump In October, New Orders Slide, Prices Surge

Markit’s US Manufacturing PMI tumbled in October, from 60.70 in September to 59.2 in preliminary October data to a final print of 58.4, tracking the dismal disappointing slide in actual US macroeconomic data.

ISM’s US Manufacturing survey also slipped lower in October (from 61.1 to 60.8) but printed better than the expected 60.5.

Source: Bloomberg

That is the lowest Manufacturing PMI since Dec 2021 as production growth slowed to the softest since July 2020 in October.

At the same time, firms continued to partially pass on higher costs to clients. The rate of charge inflation accelerated to the fastest on record.

Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit said:

October saw US manufacturers report yet another near-record lengthening of supply chains, with shortages of components constraining production growth to the lowest since July of last year. Around half of all companies reporting lower production in October attributed the decline to a lack of supplies. However, a further one-in-ten cited a lack of labor, and one-in-four reported that demand had fallen, often as a result of customers either lacking other inputs or pushing back on higher prices.

“Although production growth has now slipped below the pre-pandemic long-run average due to the supply and labor constraints, demand growth – as measured by new order inflows – remains well above trend despite easing in October, hence producers saw another steep rise in backlogs of uncompleted work. This shortfall of production relative to demand was the principal driving force behind a survey record rise in manufacturers’ selling prices, suggesting that inflationary pressures continue to build and look unlikely to abate to any significant degree any time soon.”

ISM data shows stagflationary threats re-appearing with new orders tumbling as prices paid resurges…

Finally, the future doesn’t look bright as output expectations dropped to a 12-month low in October amid concerns regarding inflation and supply-chain disruption.

Tyler Durden
Mon, 11/01/2021 – 10:04

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SCOTUS GVRs Roman Catholic Diocese of Albany v. Lacewell; Justices Thomas, Alito, and Gorsuch Would Have Granted Cert

Today, the Supreme Court GVR’d Roman Catholic Diocese of Albany v. Lacewell in light of Fulton. I blogged about this case last month, which involves a New York mandate that insurance policies must cover abortions. The case was GVR’d after four conferences. Once again, Justices Thomas, Alito, and Gorsuch signaled they would have granted cert. By the process of elimination, we know that neither Justices Kavanaugh nor Barrett voted to grant cert. And, once again, by signaling three dissents, the Court’s conservatives shined a light on their new colleagues.

It is very obvious to me that Justices Kavanaugh and Barrett have no interest in deciding another Free Exercise Clause case now–especially after the denial of review in the Maine case. Barrett signaled that there were not four votes for cert. She would know–she was the potential fourth vote for review who voted no!

For now at least, Justices Thomas, Alito, and Gorsuch are alone on the Court to provide guidance of how to apply Fulton.

Now, time to listen to the abortion oral arguments. Today at 1 ET/12 CT, I am speaking at the  Texas Tech Federalist Society Chapter. I will provide a recap of the arguments. Stay tuned for a YouTube link.

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Crypto Rallies As Amazon Accelerates ‘Digital Assets’ Development Team, Morgan Stanley Initiates Coverage

Crypto Rallies As Amazon Accelerates ‘Digital Assets’ Development Team, Morgan Stanley Initiates Coverage

In late July, we noted that Amazon – for the first time – exposed its interest in accepting cryptocurrencies for payment by announcing a new role seeks an experienced product leader with expertise in blockchain, central bank digital currencies and cryptocurrencies to “develop the case for the capabilities which should be developed” and drive overall product vision.

Now, it appears the tech-giant could be expanding its crypto-related team with the announcement that it is seeking a “Principal Digital Assets Specialist Bus Dev – Financial Services.”

The job announcement was presented on LinkedIn:

The job description includes, helping provide services:

“…as they transform the way they transact digital assets (ex. cryptocurrencies, CBDCs, stable coins, security-backed tokens, asset-backed tokens and NFTs) from price discovery to execution, settlement and custody.”

And moreover, crypto-related experience is key:

“You should have demonstrated experience engaging senior-level executives in past roles both externally and internally, and understands the overall cryptocurrency and digital asset ecosystem across financial services.”

The latest job posting reaffirms Amazon’s growing attention to digital currency, as the company has been apparently developing a new service to allow its customers to shop using digital currency. Earlier this year, Amazon posted a job application to launch a new digital payment product known as “Digital and Emerging Payments,” initially planning to roll out the initiative in Mexico.

It remains unclear whether Amazon is considering launching its own digital currency as part of its payment acceptance process with the new position, as well as (or instead of) existing cryptocurrencies, but for now this is a major step towards a much more mainstream adoption.

This helped push Bitcoin back above $62,000…

Source: Bloomberg

Amazon is not alone.

As Bloomberg reports, despite initially mockery and derision of the cryptospace, some of the biggest banks and financial firms have added about 1,000 crypto-related roles since 2018, according to Revelio Labs, which collects data by scraping LinkedIn.

“The banks can’t run the risk that their clients go to another bank to do these services, so they need to build up,” said Alan Johnson, managing director of Wall Street compensation consultancy Johnson Associates.

“This is a big asset, a big opportunity, and they need people and need them in a hurry. They’re willing to pay a lot.”

The total number of employees who added a new crypto-related position to their LinkedIn profiles has tripled since 2015, according to the data, which surveyed 12 financial firms.

Ethereum is also rebounding back towards $4400…

Source: Bloomberg

Following Goldman’s dramatic price forecast for the cryptocurrency.

As the Goldman strategist writes, the local backdrop looks supportive for Ethereum as it has tracked inflation markets particularly closely, likely reflecting the pro-cyclical nature as “network based” asset.” And, as Rzymelka notes, “the latest spike in inflation breakevens suggests upside risk if the leading relationship of recent episodes was to hold (grey circles below).”

This, according to Goldman, lines up well with the Ethereum chart. In the past few days, the price of the crypto broke out to new all time highs, rising just shy of $4,500 with a narrowing wedge, which to Goldman is “either a sign of exhaustion and peaking… or a starting point of an accelerating rally upon a break higher.” To Goldman, the answer to this rhetorical question is easy, and the bank hints that ethereum could surge as high as $8000 in the next two months if the historical correlation with inflation fwds persists.

And while some could argue that ETH is due for a pullback, Goldman counters that while the recent surge may appear stretched, “the RSI has yet to hit the overbought levels seen at past market highs.”

One final word of caution. As the Goldman traders notes, US inflation swaps imply core PCE inflation at or above 2.50% for the next 5 years. That’s a lot of overheating, and current market levels hence price a rather aggressive interpretation of the Fed’s AIT framework of “moderately above 2% for some time” already.

On one hand, the upside to inflation markets – and possibly crypto assets – hence looks limited unless the market starts doubting the FOMC’s inflation credibility (much) more fundamentally. In other words, as we have been saying since 2014, cryptos have emerged as the asset class that will benefit the most if we have another major inflationary/stagflationary scare.

As Goldman concludes, “this lines up rather well with the Ethereum chart, suggesting a late stage rally with longer term market top ahead.”

Finally, Morgan Stanley has joined the crypto research providers by initiating coverage:

Cryptocurrency companies are creating a new system of payments and transactions that competes with traditional finance. Governments and regulators are responding. As institutional investor interest intensifies, the crypto regime of leveraged price rises is moving to a regime of regulation.

Morgan Stanley notes that while the US dollar value of all cryptocurrencies in circulation is over 2.5 trillion, only afraction of the size of the US equity market (S&P 500 $39trn), this isn’t where all the “crypto value” is. Business models of traditional finance companies and beyond are being changed to take advantage of the new way of transacting and trading.

Morgan Stanley plans to address many big questions in more detail, including:

  • Is Decentralised Finance (DeFi) lending taking over the bank business model?

  • Can cryptocurrency fit into an ESG portfolio?

  • Is cryptocurrency really beingused as a method of payment?

  • How will regulation evolve?

  • How are companies like banks,asset managers and exchanges incorporating cryptocurrency into their business models?

  • Is cryptocurrency a currency, commodity, risk asset or something else?

  • How do you value bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies?

And ends on a perhaps ominous note for the big banks: “New companies will create faster,easier to use, more secure applications of cryptocurrency transactions to replace certain ways of doing things today.”

Tyler Durden
Mon, 11/01/2021 – 09:40

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Joe Biden Will Let World Leaders Know He Wants To Spend a Lot of Money on Climate Change


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World leaders are gathering to discuss climate change at a United Nations summit, just as President Joe Biden tries to get his own spendy domestic environmental agenda over the finish line. This week, the U.N.’s 26th Climate Change Conference will be held in Glasgow, Scotland, where world leaders will discuss their plans for meeting the emissions reduction targets set out in the 2015 Paris Agreement.

It’s an opportunity for Biden to convince both world leaders and the American public on his $555 billion plan to cut greenhouse gas emissions via a package of tax credits and subsidies.

The plan, part of a slimmed-down $1.75 trillion “Build Back Better” spending framework unveiled by the White House on Thursday, includes $320 billion in tax credits for clean energy power generation, electric vehicles, and lower-emission manufacturing. Some $110 billion would be spent on attempting to goose the domestic production of solar panels, batteries, and other less green industries like cement and steel. Another $105 billion would be spent on “resilience investments” to mitigate the effects of extreme weather events and “legacy pollution.”

Negotiations are continuing between congressional leadership and the White House, but it’s possible the “Build Back Better” framework will get a vote in the House later this week alongside an infrastructure bill that would authorize around $500 billion in new spending.

While domestic political wrangling over this spending plan continues, the president is touting all the environmental spending contained in the bill as evidence that the U.S. is committed to tackling climate change.

“This framework makes the most significant investment to deal with the climate crisis that has ever, ever happened—beyond any other advanced nation in the world,” said Biden in a White House speech on Thursday, reports The Wall Street Journal.

Whether the size of the climate provisions in the still-unpassed framework is enough to convince other countries to take more ambitious actions of their own remains to be seen. A G-20 summit in Rome over the weekend, which featured leaders of many of the same nations that will be represented in Glasgow, reportedly made almost no progress on how to cut greenhouse emissions, reports the Journal.

Despite the international image Biden is trying to cultivate as a global climate warrior, his administration has backed a number of less-than-green policies here at home. The White House’s Council on Environmental Quality is in the middle of a rewrite of federal environmental review rules that will make it far more expensive to complete projects environmentalists would normally endorse, whether that’s building wind farms off the coast or implementing congestion pricing in New York City.

The latest version of the “Build Back Better” framework also maintains a $20 billion bailout for the National Flood Insurance Progam, an effective subsidy for people to live in coastal areas threatened by rising sea levels.


FREE MINDS

New York City’s vaccine mandate is proving to be a surprise means of marginally shrinking government payrolls. Beginning Monday, city workers who have yet to get a single vaccine dose will be required to stay home. The New York Post reports that some 20,000 government employees, or about 10 percent of the city’s workforce, will be put on unpaid leave today.

That includes some 3,700 fire department employees, 8,000 police, and 2,000 sanitation workers. Fewer cops and firefighters on the streets have some worried that a vaccine mandate intended to improve public health will instead diminish public safety.

At least when it comes to firefighters, people should rest easy. The number of fires that occur in the country has been steadily declining for decades. Meanwhile, the number of career firefighters continues to grow.

Whatever one thinks of vaccine mandates for government employees, if some of the fire department’s vaccine refuseniks stay home permanently, New York City will end up setting fewer tax dollars alight well.


FREE MARKETS

A plan for a blocky new college dormitory at the University of California, Santa Barbara campus has the internet arguing about how much density is too much density. The controversial 11-story dorm would pack 4,500 students into small, mostly windowless single-occupancy rooms. The design of the building is the brainchild of billionaire investor Charlie Munger, who has promised to donate $200 million to the $1.5 billion project on the condition that his plans be followed to the letter.

In response to Munger’s proposal, an architect on the university’s design review board quit in protest, saying per the Daily Nexus student paper, that “the building is a social and psychological experiment with an unknown impact on the lives and personal development of the undergraduates the university serves.”

On Twitter, others were more favorable to Munger’s proposal. People have suggested that windowless, single-occupancy rooms might be an improvement over traditional shared dorm rooms and that they might even shift the Overton window on “the cube”—a utopian “yes in my backyard” (YIMBY) plan to house all of humanity in a single building in Manhattan.


QUICK HITS

• The American Medical Association has a new guide on how to talk about health disparities that heaps a surprising amount of blame on real estate developers for all the world’s problems.

• The New York Times has a big new investigation on the police departments around the country that fund themselves with fines and traffic tickets.

• The Los Angeles Times has more details on Alec Baldwin’s shooting of two crew members of the set of the movie Rust.

• American Airlines is canceling hundreds of flights because of weather and staffing shortages.

• U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen assures the public that everything is just fine with the country’s post-pandemic economic recovery.

• The Food and Drug Administration is delaying its decision on whether to approve the Moderna vaccine for adolescents so that it can evaluate if the shot increases the risk of myocarditis, an inflammation of the heart, reports The Washington Post.

• SpaceX’s latest mission is delayed due to bad weather. No indication that staffing issues played a role.

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Attorneys General In 10 States Join Fight Against Biden Admin’s Vaccine Mandate

Attorneys General In 10 States Join Fight Against Biden Admin’s Vaccine Mandate

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times,

Ten attorneys general in states with Republican governors filed a lawsuit against the White House’s vaccine mandate for federal contractors.

The lawsuit, dated Oct. 29, was filed by the attorneys general of Alaska, Arkansas, Missouri, Nebraska, Iowa, Montana, New Hampshire, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wyoming. They described (pdf) the Biden administration’s vaccine mandate for contractors as a “power grab.”

“If the federal government attempts to unconstitutionally exert its will and force federal contractors to mandate vaccinations, the workforce and businesses could be decimated, further exacerbating the supply chain and workforce crises,” Missouri Attorney General Eric Schmitt said in a statement as the lawsuit was filed.

Schmitt, a Republican, further argued that the federal government “should not be mandating vaccinations, and that’s why we filed suit today,” saying the move is “illegal” and “unconstitutional.”

President Joe Biden on Sept. 9 announced sweeping COVID-19 vaccine mandates for federal workers and contractors, and set a Dec. 8 deadline. Federal workers and contractors under the mandate won’t be able to submit weekly COVID-19 tests and instead have to get vaccinated or seek a religious or medical exemption.

In the same breath, the president said he would direct the Occupational Safety and Health Administration to create a rule for employers with 100 or more employees to mandate vaccines or weekly COVID-19 testing for employees, affecting some 80 million private-sector workers. Health care staff who work at Medicaid- or Medicare-funded facilities also have to get the vaccine, with no option to submit to weekly testing.

While Biden has said that the vaccine mandates are needed to deal with the Delta variant surge, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) data has shown that COVID-19 cases have persistently dropped across the United States in recent weeks. Meanwhile, some trade groups have issued warnings that Biden’s mandates on vaccines would trigger significant staffing and supply chain issues nationwide.

“The ramifications of the federal contractor vaccine mandate are significant,” Nebraska Attorney General Douglas Peterson said in a statement late last week.

“It will impact countless employees, exacerbate existing workforce shortages, and create economic instability. Most importantly, it puts individual employees who happened to work for federal contractors out of a job if they simply make the personal choice not to be vaccinated.”

The lawsuit, filed in the U.S. District Court for the Eastern District of Missouri, names Biden, COVID-19 task force chief Jeff Zients, Office of Management and Budget Director Shalanda Young, General Services Administration head Robin Carnahan, Office of Personnel and Management Director Kiran Ahuja, and others as defendants. The attorneys general are seeking an injunction against the vaccine mandate.

The lawsuit follows legal challenges on the contractor vaccine mandate that have come from other states, including Florida, Texas, Georgia, Arizona, and others.

White House officials didn’t immediately respond to a request by The Epoch Times for comment.

Tyler Durden
Mon, 11/01/2021 – 09:25

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/3w6S9Wg Tyler Durden

Key Events This Very Busy Week: Fed, Payrolls, Hiking Central Banks, PMIs And Much More

Key Events This Very Busy Week: Fed, Payrolls, Hiking Central Banks, PMIs And Much More

Last week may have seen the peak of earnings season with the GAMMA companies (fka as FAAMG) reporting earnings that left quite a bit to be desired, but it gets even busier this week with the Fed’s Wednesday taper announcement, Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report and a slew of other events taking place in the coming five days.

In addition to two very closely watched meetings from the RBA (Tuesday) and BOE (Thursday), where the central banks will likely announce some form of tightening/tapering (more in a subsequent preview) to contain soaring inflation, on Wednesday the Fed will announce a well flagged taper on Wednesday. In line with recent guidance, DB expect that the Fed will announce monthly reductions of $10bn and $5bn of Treasury and MBS purchases, respectively. With the first cut to purchases coming mid-November, this will bring the latest round of QE to a conclusion in June 2022. As noted last night, Goldman pulled forward its first rate hike forecast by one year to July 2022.

The Fed has some flexibility with this timetable but it will be interesting to hear how much Powell pushes back on markets that price in two hikes in 2022, including one almost fully priced for before the taper ends. If markets attacked the Fed in the same way they have the RBA the global financial system would have a lot of issues so it’s a fine balance for the Fed. They won’t want to push back too aggressively on market pricing given the uncertainty but they won’t want an outright attack on forward guidance.

Of far lower importance will be this week’s payrolls report on Friday, where consensus expects a +425k vs. +194k payrolls print while the unemployment rate is expected to fall by a tenth to 4.7% and average hourly earnings to post another strong gain (+0.4% vs. +0.6%) amidst still-elevated hours worked (34.8hrs vs. 34.8hrs).

Outside of all this excitement, we have the COP26 which will dominate all news outlets with its utter boondoggle uselessness. The other main data highlight are the global PMIs (today and Wednesday mostly) which will give insight into how the economic recovery has progressed in the first month of Q4 with the surveys shedding light onto how inflation is affecting suppliers. There is lots more in store for us this week but see the day by day calendar at the end for the full run down

The market also enters the second half of the 3Q earnings season. There are 168 S&P 500 and 85 Stoxx 600 companies reporting this week with 52% of the S&P 500 and 48% of the STOXX 600 having already reported.

DB’s Binky Chadha published an update on earnings season over the weekend (link here). In the US, the size of the earnings beat has declined over the course of the season and is on track to hit 7%, well below the record 14-20% range post pandemic. Excluding the lumpy loan-loss reserve releases by banks, the beat is even lower at 5%, bringing it back in line with the historical norm. Quarterly earnings are on track to be down sequentially from Q2 to Q3 by -1.1% (qoq seasonally adjusted), the first drop since Q2 2020. The flat to down read of earnings is broad based across sector groups. Forward consensus estimates have fallen outside of the Energy sector. The S&P 500 nevertheless has seen one of the strongest earning season rallies on record. See much more in Binky’s piece.

This week’s highlights include NXP Semiconductors, Zoom, and Tata Motors today before Pfizer, T-Mobile, Estee Lauder, BP, Mondelez, Activision Blizzard, and AP Moller-Maersk tomorrow. Then on Wednesday we’ll hear from Novo Nordisk, Qualcomm, CVS, Marriott, Albemarle, and MGM resorts. Thursday sees reports from Toyota, Moderna, Square, Airbnb, Uber, and Deutsche Post and then a busy Friday with Alibaba Group, Dominion Energy, Honda, and Mitsubishi.

Finally, focusing on just the US, Goldman writes that the key economic data releases this week are the ISM manufacturing index on Monday, the ISM services index on Wednesday, and the employment report on Friday. The November FOMC meeting is this week, with the release of the statement at 2:00 PM ET on Wednesday, followed by Chair Powell’s press conference at 2:30 PM.

Monday, November 1

  • 10:00 AM Construction spending, September (GS +0.3%, consensus +0.5%, last flat); We estimate a 0.3% increase in construction spending in September.
  • 10:00 AM ISM manufacturing index, October (GS 60.3, consensus 60.5, last 61.1); We estimate that the ISM manufacturing index declined 0.8pt to 60.3 in October, reflecting supply constraints in the automotive sector and the elevated level of the ISM measure relative to regional manufacturing surveys.
  • 09:45 AM Markit manufacturing PMI, October final (consensus 59.2, last 59.2)

Tuesday, November 2

  • 5:00 PM Wards Total Vehicle Sales, October (GS 12.5m, consensus 12.5m, last 12.2m)

Wednesday, November 3

  • 08:15 AM ADP employment report, October (GS +425k, consensus +400k, last +568k): We expect a 425k rise in ADP payroll employment for the month of October. Our forecast assumes strong underlying job gains and reflects the mixed statistical inputs to the ADP model this month.
  • 09:45 AM Markit services PMI, October final (consensus 58.2, last 58.2)
  • 10:00 AM ISM services index, October (GS 62.3, consensus 62.0, last 61.9): We estimate that the ISM services index rose 0.4 points to 62.3, reflecting improving public health, rebounding dining activity, and the strength in the GSAI. Our services tracker rose 1.9pt to 58.1.
  • 10:00 AM Factory orders, September (GS +0.1%, consensus -0.1%, last +1.2%); Durable goods orders, September final (last -0.4%); Durable goods orders ex-transportation, September final (last +0.4%); Core capital goods orders, September final (last +0.8%); Core capital goods shipments, September final (last +1.4%): We estimate that factory orders increased 0.1% in September following a 1.2% increase in August. Durable goods orders declined 0.4% in the September advance report, but core capital goods orders increased 0.8%.
  • 02:00 PM FOMC statement, November 1-2 meeting: As discussed in our FOMC preview, we expect that the FOMC will announce the start of tapering at this meeting, and that the taper will conclude in June 2022. We pulled forward our forecast for the first rate hike to July 2022, as we now expect core PCE inflation to remain above 3%—and core CPI inflation above 4%—when the taper concludes.

Thursday, November 4

  • 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended October 30 (GS 270k, consensus N.A., last 281k); Continuing jobless claims, week ended October 23 (consensus N.A., last 2,243k): We estimate initial jobless claims decreased to 270k in the week ended October 30.
  • 08:30 AM Nonfarm productivity, Q3 preliminary (GS -2.0%, consensus -1.3%, last +2.1%); Unit labor costs, Q3 preliminary (GS +6.0%, consensus +5.4%, last +1.3%): We estimate nonfarm productivity growth of -2.0% in Q3 (qoq saar), reflecting a larger increase in hours worked than in business output. We expect that Q3 unit labor costs—compensation per hour divided by output per hour—increased by 6.0%.
  • 08:30 AM Trade Balance, September (GS -$80.1bn, consensus -$74.8bn, last -$73.3bn): We estimate that the trade deficit increased by $5.3bn to $80.1bn in September, reflecting a sharp decline in exports in the advanced goods report.

Friday, November 5

  • 08:30 AM Nonfarm payroll employment, October (GS +525k, consensus +450k, last +194k); Private payroll employment, October (GS +500k, consensus +400k, last +317k); Average hourly earnings (mom), October (GS +0.5%, consensus +0.4%, last +0.6%); Average hourly earnings (yoy), October (GS +5.1%, consensus +4.9%, last +4.6%); Unemployment rate, October (GS 4.7%, consensus 4.7%, last 4.8%): We estimate nonfarm payrolls rose 525k in October following the disappointing 194k gain in September (mom sa). This report reflects the first full month of hiring following the expiration of federal enhanced unemployment benefits, and coupled with improving public health and strong labor demand, we expect this report to mark a step-up in trend. Big Data employment measures generally improved relative to September, and dining activity picked up further as Delta fears ebbed. We also expect education payrolls to reverse some of the 180k September decline (public and private), as schools gradually fill positions left open by the janitors and support staff who did not return for the fall school year. On the negative side, the seasonal factors may have evolved to fit the strong October 2020 data, raising the seasonal hurdle in this week’s report.
  • We estimate a one-tenth drop in the unemployment rate to 4.7%, reflecting a strong household employment gain but a likely rebound in the labor force participation rate—the latter driven by expiring benefits, improving public health, and the easing of childcare constraints. We estimate a 0.5% rise in average hourly earnings (mom sa) that boosts the year-on-year rate by five tenths to 5.1%, reflecting continued wage pressures, positive calendar effects, and a pay raise at Wal-Mart.

Source: Deutsche Bank, BofA, Goldman

Tyler Durden
Mon, 11/01/2021 – 09:11

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FDA Delays Approval Of Moderna Jab For Kids As More Safety Concerns Emerge

FDA Delays Approval Of Moderna Jab For Kids As More Safety Concerns Emerge

Once again, regulators are having concerns about the safety of the Moderna COVID jab, particularly among young patients, following data released over the summer which suggested that the Moderna jab might be even more dangerous to younger patients than its top rival, the Pfizer jab. Safety studies on both vaccines carried out by Canadian researchers found that the Moderna jab might be as much as 2.5x higher than the dangers of side effects from the Moderna jab.

After the FDA and CDC ignored the advice from their respective advisory panels and went ahead with offering emergency use approvals for both jabs and the J&J jab for younger patients, But now, the FDA is re-examining its decision to authorize the Moderna COVID jab for adolescents as young as 12 years old. Specifically, the agency is examining the potentiality for dangerous heart inflammation in a certain group of younger patients, who are at a higher risk of side effects.

The FDA has decided to delay its approval for the Moderna jab for patients between the ages of 12 to 17 – a decision that comes just three days after the FDA authorized the Pfizer-BioNTech’s COVID-19 vaccine or children between ages five and 11.

It also comes just before Moderna’s advisors were expected to expand emergency use of the vaccine to the youngest patients as well.

According to the Hill, Moderna, based in Cambridge, Massachusetts, was told the federal agency would need until at least January 2022 before the FDA can finish its review. The company also added that it will delay its request for FDA authorization of its COVID vaccine for children 6 to 11 years old, the paper reported.

The agency informed Moderna on Friday night that it would require the extra time to further examine ongoing and emerging data – from international sources – on the risks of myocarditis, which is an inflammation of the heart muscle that in rare cases occurs after vaccination.

The announcement comes after several countries including Finland and other from Nordic nations to Japan, voiced concerns that the Moderna vaccine increased the risk of myocarditis in men ages 18 to 30.

In June, Moderna requested the FDA to authorize its vaccine for adolescents, with the shot having been approved previously for people 18 and older. The proposed vaccine treatment protocol for teens would be the same as that for adults, with two 100-microgram shots received 28-days apart. Moderna’s proposed vaccination for children 6 to 11 years old that is now on hold would have been for them to receive two half-dose shots of 50 micrograms, the Post reported.

In its statement, Moderna said ‘the safety of vaccine recipients is of paramount importance’ and that it’s working closely with the FDA.

Per the press release, many adults aren’t particularly eager to vaccinate young kids since the kids aren’t seen as particularly vulnerable.

To be sure this is just a hiccup. It’s no more than a disruption. Still, child-size vials that can be kept in refrigerators along with smaller needles necessary for injecting young kids will be sent to providers across the country.

The youngest patients will be able to receive the shot at their pediatrician’s offices or local pharmacies, and potentially even their schools rather than mass immunization sites.

Read the full press release below:

Moderna, Inc. (Nasdaq: MRNA), a biotechnology company pioneering messenger RNA (mRNA) therapeutics and vaccines, today provided an update that the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has notified the Company that it will require additional time to complete its assessment of Moderna’s Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) request for the use of the Moderna COVID-19 vaccine (mRNA-1273) at the 100 µg dose level in adolescents 12 to 17 years of age.

On Friday evening, the FDA informed Moderna that the agency requires additional time to evaluate recent international analyses of the risk of myocarditis after vaccination. The FDA notified Moderna that this review may not be completed before January 2022. The safety of vaccine recipients is of paramount importance to Moderna. The Company is fully committed to working closely with the FDA to support their review and is grateful to the FDA for their diligence.

An increased risk of myocarditis has been described for COVID-19 vaccines, including the Moderna COVID-19 vaccine, particularly in young men and following the second dose. The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and the World Health Organization (WHO) have stated that myocarditis following vaccination with mRNA vaccines has been rare and generally mild.

It is estimated that over 1.5 million adolescents have received the Moderna COVID-19 vaccine. To date, the observed rate of myocarditis reports in those less than 18 years of age in Moderna’s global safety database does not suggest an increased risk of myocarditis in this population. Moderna is committed to conducting its own careful review of new external analyses as they become available. The Company does not yet have access to data from some recent international analyses.

Moderna will delay filing a request for EUA of mRNA-1273 at the 50 µg dose level in the pediatric population (6-11 years of age) while the FDA completes its review of the adolescent EUA request.

Tyler Durden
Mon, 11/01/2021 – 09:05

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McAuliffe vs. Youngkin Is a Glimpse at Education Battles to Come


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Whoever comes out on top in the Virginia governor’s race, one undisputed winner is education as a galvanizing issue. In a state shifting blue, Democrat Terry McAuliffe was the favorite to win—right up until parents loudly challenged public school polices and the candidate essentially told them to sit down and shut up. That arrogant jibe made Republican Glenn Youngkin, with his focus on education concerns, a serious contender. The question is whether that means just another opening for the culture war, or an opportunity to gain support for school choice policies that offer just about everybody what they want.

In recent months, an ordeal of controversial pandemic policy and creeping politicization of school curricula with social justice ideology resulted in protests at school board meetings across the country.

“Constituents have shown up at normally placid meetings to voice dissent of everything from mask mandate policies – or the lack of them – to teaching critical race theory and policies around transgender students,” noted CNN.

Unaccustomed debate prompted the National School Boards Association (NSBA) to ask for federal intervention against angry parents, a move its own board of directors repudiated as state associations disaffiliated from the national organization. In Virginia, where protests were especially vitriolic and school board members denied knowledge of a sexual assault in a Loudon County school bathroom, Terry McAuliffe decided to do the NSBA one better in a manner guaranteed to infuriate the public.

“I don’t think parents should be telling schools what they should teach,” McAuliffe huffed during a September 28 debate against Youngkin. Suddenly, he was no longer the obvious favorite to win.

“Polls show Terry McAuliffe and Glenn Youngkin are neck-and-neck in the race for Virginia governor,” a local CBS station reported in mid-October. “With just two weeks until Election Day, education is proving to be a top issue for voters.” The piece pointed to the frustration parents felt with being maligned by public school bureaucrats when they raise concerns over masking or racialized curricula.

Averages of polls at both FiveThirtyEight and RealClearPolitics showed Youngkin moving from behind to a very slight edge over McAuliffe as the education controversy broke. Voters told Monmouth University pollsters that education was the second-most important issue to them, with Youngkin favored by one point on the matter. A late October poll by Cygnal gave Youngkin a strong lead over McAuliffe among parents of K-12 children—no surprise when 78 percent of parents say they should have a major say in what their kids are taught.

Youngkin improved his odds in the gubernatorial race by emphasizing education. But he did so in two ways that aren’t necessarily compatible: His website pledges him to “Ridding Political Agendas from the Classroom by Banning Critical Race Theory” but also to “Creating at least 20 New Innovation Charter Schools across the K-12 Spectrum to Provide Choice.” The first option is guaranteed to please parents and students offended by racialized lessons, but to alienate those who think schools gloss over America’s faults and by doing so continue the culture war over schools into the future. The second policy would allow both constituencies to go their own ways with schools that cater to divergent preferences and might actually put an end to classroom battles.

At the moment, Virginia parents unhappy with public schools have limited options. The state offers only eight charter schools with little autonomy. There’s also a modest tax-credit program for donations supporting private-school tuition. The state is considered “moderate” in terms of burdensome regulation on homeschoolers, leaving that as a possibility for families. And, of course, those able to afford private school tuition on top of taxes for public schools can always opt out of classroom battles.

Among the people with such resources is Terry McAuliffe, who sent his children to a pricey private school even while he opposed making such options available to people without means. As governor from 2014 to 2018 (Virginia doesn’t permit consecutive terms) he vetoed legislation that would have eased the creation of new charter schools and that would have allowed families to use education savings accounts to pay for services that they choose themselves.

That demand exists for education options is obvious from growth in homeschooling and private schooling even as publicschool enrollment declines. That’s impressive given that Virginia families exiting the government system must still pay to support its institutions. 

But Virginia’s families don’t all want the same thing. Some opt for homeschooling because they fear possible infection with COVID-19 and oppose the in-person instruction favored by other families. And a few of the nastier battles over curriculum have taken place between parents on opposite sides of the ideological divide. It’s difficult, if not impossible, for government-run schools to simultaneously accommodate families ready to return to normal life and those who want to continue pandemic-inspired social distancing. It’s even more challenging to craft lessons for families insisting on race neutrality in the classroom that will appeal to those who favor an “anti-racist” agenda. Politicians like Youngkin and McAuliffe can either pick sides in these battles and hope that they’ll ultimately triumph, or they can offer a way out of endless culture war by letting students escape the battleground.

School choice offers an exit ramp from school board battles and conflicts among parents by letting funding follow students to the education that families want for their kids. Neighbors with different preferences can peacefully choose options that suit them without any need for disagreement. Increasingly, people seem to understand that fighting over government monopolies is a dead end and that choice is the way to go.

“Public support for school choice is at an all-time high,” Tommy Schultz, CEO of the American Federation for Children, commented in June. In polling by his organization, 74 percent of respondents supported letting parents “use the tax dollars designated for their child’s education to send their child to the public or private school which best serves their needs.”

In September, 74 percent of school parents polled by EdChoice supported education savings accounts, 70 percent supported school vouchers, and the same percentage favored charter schools. Choice is slightly more popular among the Virginians who vote this week. 

The race for governor between Terry McAuliffe and Glenn Youngkin shows that parents refuse to be pushed aside when it comes to their kids’ education. It will undoubtedly fuel an emphasis on education as a campaign issue in political races across the country. If done right, the battle in Virginia won’t result in winner-take-all victory, but in outcomes that benefit everybody.

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Forget COP26, The G-20 Still Struggles To Meet COP15 And COP09

Forget COP26, The G-20 Still Struggles To Meet COP15 And COP09

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

The top 20 group of nations is still fighting over the Paris accord reached in COP15…

COP26 is the 26th annual Conference of Parties on climate change. The goal of these meetings is to agree to methods of limiting global warming to 1.5ºC above pre-industrial levels by 2100. 

Let’s check in on a G20 meeting that is ahead of COP26.

Please note G-20 Nations Agree to Speed Up Climate Action, but Fail to Settle on Targets.

During a two-day meeting in Rome, the G-20 nations, which include the U.S., India and China, struggled to find consensus on how best to adhere to the 2015 Paris climate agreement. 

The leaders reaffirmed their commitment to the 2015 Paris agreement on climate change, which aims to “limit global warming to well below 2, preferably to 1.5 degrees Celsius” compared with preindustrial levels, according to a copy of the leaders’ final joint communiqué.

The final communiqué included no new commitments to phase out coal use domestically or fossil-fuel subsidies.

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, whose government is hosting the COP26 summit, said on Saturday that it currently looked unlikely that the 1.5 degrees Celsius target would be met. U.N. climate experts say that global warming needs to be capped at that level to avoid major environmental catastrophe.

Current national climate plans, however, “still condemn the world to a calamitous 2.7-degree increase,” U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres told reporters on Friday. Mr. Guterres has previously called carbon neutrality by 2050 “the world’s most urgent mission.”

Huge Disconnect Between Climate Rhetoric and Doing Anything About It

I posted the COP26 agenda and expected actions in Huge Disconnect Between Climate Rhetoric and Doing Anything About It.

What to Expect

  • October 30-31: Another useless communiqué reaffirming 1.5C goal.

  • 1-2 November: Lots of speeches including another world will end in 15 years keynote address. Xi Jinping will not signal China means business or if he does, it will be a lie.

  • November 4: Energy Day – Alok Sharma will fight to “make coal history”. There will be new signatories to the UN’s No New Coal pact but China and the US won’t be among them.

  • November 5: Expect noisy protests from Greta Thunberg. This goal will certainly be met but it will not accomplish a damn thing.

  • November 10: Transport day, with focus on cutting carbon from cars. Key moment: Boris Johnson will hope for new national bans on petrol and diesel car sales. If there is anything to cheer it will come in this sector. But there will not be meaningful bans on petrol other than perhaps diesel cars. Most of the success will happen anyway from car makers.

  • November 12: Negotiations are due to end, so expect last minute scuffles to delay proceedings. Key moment: release of the negotiated text. No climate target, but nations are likely to reaffirm support for 1.5C goal. The text is sure to disappoint climate change activists.

It appears we are well ahead of the schedule I proposed earlier especially in regards to coal. And we already have two mentions of environmental catastrophe.

Hopes Unfulfilled But Not Buried 

Secretary-General of the UN,  António Guterres, said “I leave Rome with my hopes unfulfilled — but at least they are not buried. Onwards to #COP26 in Glasgow to keep the goal of 1.5 degrees alive and to implement promises on finance and adaptation for people & planet.”

The Planet is Hell 

I don’t want my granddaughters to grow up and say that the planet is hell and I didn’t do enough to avoid it.”

That’s a new creative statement. Let’s see if Gretta picks up on it. 

COP09 Failure

Reuters has these comments on COP09

G20 sources said negotiations were tough over so-called “climate financing”, which refers to a 2009 pledge by rich nations to provide $100 billion per year by 2020 to help developing countries tackle climate change.

They have failed to meet the pledge, generating mistrust and a reluctance among some developing nations to accelerate their emissions reductions.

“We recall and reaffirm the commitment made by developed countries, to the goal of mobilizing jointly USD 100 billion per year by 2020 and annually through 2025 to address the needs of developing countries,” the G20 statement says.

Given that it’s 2021 headed into 2022 it seem more than a bit difficult to meet a pledge to do something by 2020.

Where the H is the Communiqué?

I spent a half an hour trying to find it but all I can find is references to it.

France 24 reports G20 leaders release watered-down final statement on climate commitments ahead of COP26.

The statement represented “half-measures” rather than “concrete urgent action”, one non-governmental organisation said.

The G20 bloc, which includes Brazil, China, India, Germany and the United States, accounts for an estimated 80% of global greenhouse gas emissions.

“This was a moment for the G20 to act with the responsibility they have as the biggest emitters, yet we only see half-measures rather than concrete urgent action,” said Friederike Roder, vice president of sustainable development advocacy group Global Citizen.

“We recognise that the impacts of climate change at 1.5°C are much lower than at 2°C. Keeping 1.5°C within reach will require meaningful and effective actions and commitment by all countries,” the communique said.

China, the world’s biggest CO2 emitter, has set a target date of 2060, and other large polluters such as India and Russia have also not committed to the 2050 target date.

The G20 also set no date for phasing out fossil fuel subsidies, saying they will aim to do so “over the medium term”.

G-20 Leaders Strike Climate Deal That Leaves a Lot to COP26

Bloomberg reports G-20 Leaders Strike Climate Deal That Leaves a Lot to COP26

In a copy of the final communique seen by Bloomberg from the G-20’s two-day summit in Rome, the language mirrors prior pledges made in the 2015 Paris climate accord. Leaders said they “remain committed to the Paris Agreement goal to hold the global average temperature increase well below 2 degrees Celsius and to pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.”

On domestic coal, the statement only contains a general pledge to support those countries that commit to “phasing out investment in new unabated coal power generation capacity to do so as soon as possible.” 

While COP26’s U.K. hosts had aimed to “consign coal to history,” many nations remain deeply dependent on burning the fuel that represents the biggest single obstacle to limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees. 

Negotiations over the past week saw continuous clashes over both objectives and timelines on climate, with several officials pointing the finger at holdouts China, Russia and India. The last round of talks saw negotiators known as sherpas talk throughout Saturday night, and they celebrated the end of their marathon with applause at the main La Nuvola venue at about 10 a.m.

Celebrated What? 

Check out this statement by Russia. 

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, whose country has set 2060 as its target, told reporters at a briefing.

 “It is not very polite to use this negotiating process the way the G-7 tried to,” Lavrov said.

“Nobody has proven to us or anybody else that 2050 is something which everyone must subscribe to.”

Deal? What Deal?

The Bloomberg headline said the G-20 struck a deal. What deal was that?

I see no deal. Heck, no one will even post the final communique. 

Now it’s off to COP26 where the summit highlight will surely be Gretta lecturing the world. I can’t wait to see if she mentions hell on earth. 

Cynicism 

Yes, I am clearly a cynic on these meetings. But COP26 is no different that any G meeting (G7, G20, G100 G whatever). 

And G whatever is no different than trade meetings that fail every year over the same thing: agricultural tariffs.

For nearly 20 years I have been reporting on trade hopes and every year the result is the same. 

In the annual trade meetings the US inevitably says it will lift tariffs if the EU will. But  the EU won’t and never will because France has a veto. 

This is the 26th COP. Commitments made at COP09 and COP15 have not been met. 

What to Expect – Short Version

Expect no new commitments of any substance at COP26. If by chance there are any, they will be as meaningful in practice as commitments made at COP09.

In short, countries will do what they want, when they want, but the media will always praise Saint Gretta.  

A Word About Coal

Question of the Day

On or before Nov 5 will Gretta make a reference to the planet being hell?

*  *  *

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Tyler Durden
Mon, 11/01/2021 – 08:48

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2Y5ksYl Tyler Durden

McAuliffe vs. Youngkin Is a Glimpse at Education Battles to Come


zumaglobaleleven141616

Whoever comes out on top in the Virginia governor’s race, one undisputed winner is education as a galvanizing issue. In a state shifting blue, Democrat Terry McAuliffe was the favorite to win—right up until parents loudly challenged public school polices and the candidate essentially told them to sit down and shut up. That arrogant jibe made Republican Glenn Youngkin, with his focus on education concerns, a serious contender. The question is whether that means just another opening for the culture war, or an opportunity to gain support for school choice policies that offer just about everybody what they want.

In recent months, an ordeal of controversial pandemic policy and creeping politicization of school curricula with social justice ideology resulted in protests at school board meetings across the country.

“Constituents have shown up at normally placid meetings to voice dissent of everything from mask mandate policies – or the lack of them – to teaching critical race theory and policies around transgender students,” noted CNN.

Unaccustomed debate prompted the National School Boards Association (NSBA) to ask for federal intervention against angry parents, a move its own board of directors repudiated as state associations disaffiliated from the national organization. In Virginia, where protests were especially vitriolic and school board members denied knowledge of a sexual assault in a Loudon County school bathroom, Terry McAuliffe decided to do the NSBA one better in a manner guaranteed to infuriate the public.

“I don’t think parents should be telling schools what they should teach,” McAuliffe huffed during a September 28 debate against Youngkin. Suddenly, he was no longer the obvious favorite to win.

“Polls show Terry McAuliffe and Glenn Youngkin are neck-and-neck in the race for Virginia governor,” a local CBS station reported in mid-October. “With just two weeks until Election Day, education is proving to be a top issue for voters.” The piece pointed to the frustration parents felt with being maligned by public school bureaucrats when they raise concerns over masking or racialized curricula.

Averages of polls at both FiveThirtyEight and RealClearPolitics showed Youngkin moving from behind to a very slight edge over McAuliffe as the education controversy broke. Voters told Monmouth University pollsters that education was the second-most important issue to them, with Youngkin favored by one point on the matter. A late October poll by Cygnal gave Youngkin a strong lead over McAuliffe among parents of K-12 children—no surprise when 78 percent of parents say they should have a major say in what their kids are taught.

Youngkin improved his odds in the gubernatorial race by emphasizing education. But he did so in two ways that aren’t necessarily compatible: His website pledges him to “Ridding Political Agendas from the Classroom by Banning Critical Race Theory” but also to “Creating at least 20 New Innovation Charter Schools across the K-12 Spectrum to Provide Choice.” The first option is guaranteed to please parents and students offended by racialized lessons, but to alienate those who think schools gloss over America’s faults and by doing so continue the culture war over schools into the future. The second policy would allow both constituencies to go their own ways with schools that cater to divergent preferences and might actually put an end to classroom battles.

At the moment, Virginia parents unhappy with public schools have limited options. The state offers only eight charter schools with little autonomy. There’s also a modest tax-credit program for donations supporting private-school tuition. The state is considered “moderate” in terms of burdensome regulation on homeschoolers, leaving that as a possibility for families. And, of course, those able to afford private school tuition on top of taxes for public schools can always opt out of classroom battles.

Among the people with such resources is Terry McAuliffe, who sent his children to a pricey private school even while he opposed making such options available to people without means. As governor from 2014 to 2018 (Virginia doesn’t permit consecutive terms) he vetoed legislation that would have eased the creation of new charter schools and that would have allowed families to use education savings accounts to pay for services that they choose themselves.

That demand exists for education options is obvious from growth in homeschooling and private schooling even as publicschool enrollment declines. That’s impressive given that Virginia families exiting the government system must still pay to support its institutions. 

But Virginia’s families don’t all want the same thing. Some opt for homeschooling because they fear possible infection with COVID-19 and oppose the in-person instruction favored by other families. And a few of the nastier battles over curriculum have taken place between parents on opposite sides of the ideological divide. It’s difficult, if not impossible, for government-run schools to simultaneously accommodate families ready to return to normal life and those who want to continue pandemic-inspired social distancing. It’s even more challenging to craft lessons for families insisting on race neutrality in the classroom that will appeal to those who favor an “anti-racist” agenda. Politicians like Youngkin and McAuliffe can either pick sides in these battles and hope that they’ll ultimately triumph, or they can offer a way out of endless culture war by letting students escape the battleground.

School choice offers an exit ramp from school board battles and conflicts among parents by letting funding follow students to the education that families want for their kids. Neighbors with different preferences can peacefully choose options that suit them without any need for disagreement. Increasingly, people seem to understand that fighting over government monopolies is a dead end and that choice is the way to go.

“Public support for school choice is at an all-time high,” Tommy Schultz, CEO of the American Federation for Children, commented in June. In polling by his organization, 74 percent of respondents supported letting parents “use the tax dollars designated for their child’s education to send their child to the public or private school which best serves their needs.”

In September, 74 percent of school parents polled by EdChoice supported education savings accounts, 70 percent supported school vouchers, and the same percentage favored charter schools. Choice is slightly more popular among the Virginians who vote this week. 

The race for governor between Terry McAuliffe and Glenn Youngkin shows that parents refuse to be pushed aside when it comes to their kids’ education. It will undoubtedly fuel an emphasis on education as a campaign issue in political races across the country. If done right, the battle in Virginia won’t result in winner-take-all victory, but in outcomes that benefit everybody.

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