Month: August 2022

By Marcel Kasumovich, Head of Research at One River Asset Management

“Jay Powell said things that, to be blunt, were analytically indefensible,” former Treasury Secretary Summers lamented. “There is no conceivable way that a 2.5% interest rate, in an economy inflating like this, is anywhere near neutral,” he continued.

Summers was more optimistic on fiscal, arguing that “less demand, more supply and direct better bargaining for lower prices – those are the things that are involved in reducing inflation” in his support of the Inflation Reduction Act.

The Act was welcomed by the oil and gas sector. “We’re pleased with the broader recognition that a more comprehensive set of solutions is needed to go through the energy transition,” Exxon’s CEO commented. He added: “This policy could include regular and predictable lease sales, as well as streamlined regulatory approvals and support for infrastructure such as pipelines.”

Oil and gas output is planned to rise. “We more than doubled investment compared to last year to grow both traditional and new energy business lines,” Chevron’s CEO said after reporting record profits. Apple also enjoyed surprisingly strong earnings. “This quarter’s record results are a testament to Apple’s relentless focus on innovation and our ability to create the best products and services in the world,” said Apple’s CEO Tim Cook.

The performance reviews were a bit more mixed than Apple’s optimism. Intel’s CEO observed that “as a result of macro weaknesses, we now expect the PC TAM to decline roughly 10% in calendar year 2022, characterized by broadening consumer weakness.”

And the politics of growth are trumping inflation. Senator Warren penned: “If Messrs. Powell and Summers have their way, the resulting recession will be brutal. As in past downturns, Republicans in Congress will press for austerity.” Combating Summers’ argument on the need for higher unemployment to tame inflation, Warren countered “this is the comment of someone who has never worried about where his next paycheck will come from.”

… or as we put it some time ago:

Biden about to find out what polls worse: recession and bear market or runaway inflation.

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) May 20, 2022

After being recently accused by Washington of aiding Russia during its Ukraine offensive, China has announced new aid for Assad’s Syria, which has set off alarm bells in Israel.

Syria will receive “advanced communications equipment” from the government of China, which was announced and confirmed during a prior July embassy ceremony in Damascus. The official announcement described the aid as aiming “to improve local network infrastructure, especially in those areas hit hard during the Syrian crisis since 2011.” This comes after China has long been in talks with the Syrian government over general post-war reconstruction efforts and investment opportunities.

Israeli officials worry that after years of reporting on quiet Chinese military advisory and technical support given to Assad and the Syrian Army, Beijing is poised to grow potential military aid. According to Israeli sources cited in Breaking Defense, “this could be only the tip of the iceberg of Chinese assistance for Syria’s effort to rebuild its armed forces.”

Israel has long sought throughout the over decade-long war in Syria to severely degrade the Syrian Arab Republic’s military capabilities – seeing it as a long term threat to Israeli security – given also Damascus is a close ally of Tehran.

According to more from the recent Breaking Defense report: 

“We have indications that Chinese experts visited in recent months some Syrian military installations that were damaged heavily during the civil war,” one source said. “We believe that many [facilities] of the Syrian army will be rebuilt by the Chinese, who have the capability of bringing in thousands of workers to complete the work in the shortest time.”

These unnamed Israeli defense sources were backed in their assessment by the former head of Mossad: 

“Any type of relations between a world power like China and a country that is one of Israel’s enemies is worrying,” said Danny Yatom, a former head of the Israeli Mossad intelligence agency. “The Chinese without any doubt will perform big programs in Syria, and Israel should make sure that this fact will not limit its freedom of action in Syria. Israel will not take any chance of hitting by mistake Chinese people that will be working in Syria as part of the reconstruction work.”

Syrians may finally get some needed relief from frequent Israeli bombing raids that have killed scores of Syrians.

China will provide #Syria w advanced communications equipment. Russia will provide S300 anti-aircraft missiles.
https://t.co/12vc0KjCTL

— Joshua Landis (@joshua_landis) July 28, 2022

China has never joined the West in calling for regime change in Syria. But quite the opposite, Beijing has stressed ‘counter-terrorism’ in line with the general Syrian-Russian-Iranian perspective on battling foreign jihadists. 

The Chinese government has in particular been worried about Chinese Muslim foreign fighters who entered the conflict on the side of Al-Qaeda linked groups. For example, members of the East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM) – a Uighur Muslim separatist group that China has battled both at home and abroad – are believed currently to be operating in Idlib. The Turkestan Islamic Party has been known to join forces with global jihadist movements in recent years, particularly in Syria amid the fight to topple Assad.

Authored by Jorge Viclhes via The Saker blog,

Thirty two years ago Germans enthusiastically took down the Berlin wall. Now, captured by cunning Anglo-Saxon global elites, Germans are helping other European “useful idiots” to erect a much higher and thicker wall to cut themselves off from Russia leading them into a war economy. But as Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has warned… “the approach has clearly failed — sanctions have backfired — and our car now has 4 four flat tires” … Question: vehicles don´t carry more than 2 spare tires on them, do they? So, one quick and innocent way to explain such unfathomable European miscalculation is to assume the EU leadership is immersed in a deep hypnotic trance and just blindly following US-UK instructions under Stoltenberg-Johnson war-mongering policies. Per “The Telegraph”

Ref #1 https://www.rt.com/news/559682-johnson-uk-nato-ukriaine 

Ref #2 https://www.rt.com/news/559785-orban-eu-gas-war-economy/

suicidal non-supply

The supply lines that up to 2022 successfully linked Europe and Russia took decades of very hard work to develop. This now means that almost all of such over-abundant contracts necessarily have no effective substitute because (a) no other vendors have such high quality at low price plus decades of vetting and proven experience + (b) the un-replaceable short freight distance and shipping time from nearby Russia. So, by definition, both (a) + (b) mean that today no equivalent supply lines could ever be found no matter how much Europe tried simply because it would be either too soon or too far …and always too hard and too pricey. So short cuts will be taken and corners rounded-off…. Been there, done that, got the T-shirt. The impact of the above cannot be overstated though as the now-broken Euro-Russian supply lines were essential for the Just-In-Time strategy that Europe and world markets still require and cannot wait years to develop and iron out. Logistics 101: proven experience and performance with excellent price plus quick delivery from nearby sources cannot be substituted fast enough, or possibly ever. On purpose, Europe´s worst enemies couldn´t have inflicted worse harm than what a US-UK mesmerized Europe (what else ?) is doing to itself.

So EU sanctions are now cutting off dozens of key and highly varied Russian produce without which Europe as we know it will cease to exist. This involves foodstuffs, minerals of every sort, energy re oil & gas & coal & refined products thereof, etc., etc., plus key technologies and products from space rocket engines to nuclear fuels. Even Roscosmos announced that Russia will withdraw from the International Space Station (ISS) project with the West after 2024 while by that time with an orbital station of its own. At any rate, the new European vendor problems for hundreds of products include each and every aspect of sales & procurement, sourcing & logistics, negotiations, pricing, contract terms, payment, banking procedures, sampling and testing, delivery pathway coordination, additional trucking, roads, vessels and inland waterways for shut down pipeline delivery, on-the-fly solutions for new problems, railroads, loading and unloading yards, ports, process alignment & upgrade, synchronization, scheduling, building and adapting key infrastructure, insurance, guarantees, new administrative matters, buffer storage, vendor vetting, multiple regulatory compliance, etc., etc. So the most efficient and swift Euro-Russian trade routines have today turned into logistical and management nightmares. Europe now and for the near future — in most unfavorable circumstances — needs to run unexpected risks to re-do all such hard work in a hurry and for every banned Russian product, not just coal & oil & nat-gas. And it is not a “plug & play” process either. It takes time. Tons of changes have to be made even after finding a trustworthy vendor. It is costly, cumbersome, and prone to project creep & fatigue. All fully unnecessary and chaotic.

No country in the EU is anywhere ready for any of the above, let alone all of Europe at the very same time with the very same deadline. Furthermore, an impaired Germany would mean a very different Europe something which at this late stage cannot be avoided even if Germans wanted to get their feet wet in a hurry. Jim Rickards now says that “Almost everything you heard about the war in Ukraine from U.S. media over the course of March, April, and May was a lie.” Furthermore, the Western news regarding the impact of the Ukraine war contained very few truths that can confuse just as much. Per Rickards “The economies of the U.S. and the EU are in or very near to recession. Inflation is out of control in the West and commodity shortages will lead quickly to food shortages and more empty shelves in supermarkets… as economic sanctions have backfired ”. And now labor unions add fuel to the fire fully knowing they have the leverage to worsen inflation which is the hottest political topic nowadays. So they now demand better working conditions “with protests turning up at all spots in the global supply chain, including railways, trucking, warehouses, and ports…” At any rate, today Russia is taking full control and will probably retain for itself what up until 2022 were Ukraine´s best assets. That includes its industrial core, its enormously large and specialized natural resources, a most fertile land reminiscent of the Argentine Pampas, and all the ports and the major rivers with Russian territory unscathed. No wonder Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán wants plain “out” of the current European non-strategy despite that Euroclear is raking in dozens of millions in profits from seized Russian bank accounts.

Ref #3 https://www.rt.com/russia/558846-us-uk-eu-sanctions/

Ref #4 https://news.antiwar.com/2022/07/24/hungarys-orban-says-us-russia-peace-talks-needed-to-end-ukraine-war/

Ref #5 https://dailyreckoning.com/needless-death-and-misery/

Ref #6 https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/labor-has-leverage-protesting-supply-chain-workers-threaten-worsen-worlds-inflation-crisis

Ref #7 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-24/world-s-key-workers-threaten-to-hit-economy-where-it-will-hurt?sref=6uww027M

Ref #8 https://www.rt.com/business/559647-eurozone-profits-frozen-russian-assets/

Ref #9 https://www.rt.com/russia/559598-jens-stoltenberg-calls-allies-pay/

add a low Rhine…

The Rhine River directly affects trade and industrial logistics of several key European countries namely, Austria, Switzerland, Germany, France, and the Netherlands while indirectly affecting many others or, in some cases, all the others. In particular, the über-important German inland transportation system – and therefore its entire supply chains network – depends upon normal levels of Rhine River waters. Because it´s not only a matter of sourcing the right quality, quantity and price of any produce. It is just as important to receive it Just-In-Time at process destinations such as refineries or power plants as explained later. Simultaneously, all European stakeholders are competing with each other tooth and nail struggling to find, contract and retain exactly the same resources in order to solve the same unexpected problems all at once and by the same date. And it´s not only coal or oil or natural gas — and many other raw materials in and of themselves — but also for the means required to transport, deliver and process all of them.

So everybody and his sister would now in Europe be modifying the same things at the same time with the same resources by the same date. For example, looking for the very first – and certainly bad – resource, namely trucking fleets of every size and type and humongous amounts of EU-certified drivers thereof. This additional heavy truck traffic would require upgrading newer roads and building new ones. Also, the different processes required for these different commodities also require all-around modifications at refineries, new-feedstock power plants, petrochemical plants, etc., etc., etc. Furthermore, there were no plans for any of this nor for the abundant technical human resources required and/or vetted management staff. Managerially speaking, this is not a contingency. It is a fully unexpected European-wide revolution with a terribly demanding time frame and critical failures as the most probable result. This involves strategic value-chain upstream items with EU captive consumers cascading into multiple supply chain failures thru lack of nat-gas, rare earths, inert gases, potash, sulfur, uranium, palladium, vanadium, cobalt, coke, titanium, nickel, lithium, plastics, glass, ceramics, pharmaceuticals, ships, inks, airplanes, polymers, medical and industrial gases, sealing rings & membranes, power transmission, transformer and lube oils, neon gas for microchip etching, etc., etc.

Thousands of yet unknown people are needed to execute all of these projects with yet to be defined job descriptions, yet to be interviewed, hired, trained, teams put together, deployed, etc. Many oldies will be called back from retirement

For many good reasons – mostly obvious — roads & trucks many times cannot compete with seaborne or internal water-ways freight either by volumes shipped or final destination delivery requirements. Furthermore, the supply lines/production system is already set up in a given way and any change introduced to previous logistics is fully unforeseen. For instance, high-load storage facilities and high-consuming processing plants, refineries, power stations and the like are conveniently located for vessel access or pipelines or railways, not trucks. So, now with everyone scrambling for ultra-hard-to-find solutions, EU products will require higher transportation costs by, for instance, having to replace sintering ores with concentrates or pellets. And it is unlikely for higher costs to be absorbed by the market under current conditions of falling demand. So profit margins will get yet narrower – or negative – as already under heavy pressure from high energy prices and labor costs in an inflationary vicious cycle. Sooner or later this leads to either very high inflation, or recession… or even depression. Also, a tremendous food problem has arisen as a consequence of the EU sanctions, involving final produce and intermediate outcomes such as fertilizers which in turn affect yields.

hypnotized food

EU sanctions have prevented operations with Russian grain, including insurance and the admission of Russian ships to foreign ports and entry of foreign ships to Russian ports. Russia cannot solve that nor contribute to solving that in any way, shape, or form. Only the EU can solve that problem. What Russia can and will do is to develop its economy by counting on reliable partners instead of Western countries not willing or able to comply with the agreed terms of trade. No (Russian) gas no fertilizers, less (Russian) gas less fertilizers for everyone including Third World economies.

Higher oil prices – or no oil – mean more expensive distillates such as diesel oil required for farming food produce.

In view of less Russian gas, BASF has slashed ammonia production which is an essential component for fertilizers.

Ref #10 https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/basf-prepares-slash-ammonia-production-germany-amid-worsening-natgas-crunch

hypnotized energy

Up until Jan. 2022, coal (“brown” coal, the dirtiest of them all) was only responsible for 33% of power generation in Germany… but not anymore (more on that later). Let alone the case of oil & gas with ultra simplified door-to-door delivery of excellent, cheap products through quick and clean pipelines. BTW, the case of now badly-needed coal is probably the worst of all, as its complete phase-out was planned for 2030 but now fully reverted with de-commissioned coal-fired power stations most probably returning as Germany´s first line energy suppliers. Less Russian natural gas means less heating, less hot water, less power and less fertilizer among other important things. And the EU cannot print natural gas or Rubles.

“ Despite the aggressive Western sanctions… Russia has been very restrained as far as counter-measures are concerned. So after loudly saying that the EU wants nothing to do with Russian energy or Russian pipelines, the EU should hardly be upset if Russia is tired of laboring not to give them what they asked for, an economic divorce. The problem is Europe is now upset that it’s getting what it acted like it wanted.” – Yves Smith – “Naked Capitalism”

Ref # 11 https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2022/07/the-end-of-cheap-russian-gas-turning-the-lights-out-in-europe.html

On a recent press conference Russia´s President Vladimir Putin explained that the EU energy security problem is definetly not Russia nor Gazprom. Very simply put: with long winters, less sun, low winds, and EU banks that will not finance fossil fuels investments, plus insurance companies that do not insure them, and local governments that do not allocate land plots for new projects, so then pipelines are not built… while demand keeps growing. Then for political reasons the Ukraine government shuts down a pipeline station. Then the Siemens-Canada problem as, by contract, turbines require regular maintenance and repairs. In sum, the EU has shut-down — on its own — two Russian pipeline routes as Ukraine and Poland effectively cut off the Yamal-Europe pipeline.

Ukraine overtly, Poland by refusing to pay under the new gas for roubles scheme. The EU has also sanctioned one turbine while not commissioning North Stream 2, thus completely tying down Gazprom´s hands. Furthermore, the documentation that Gazprom received from Canada and Siemens did not respond to the turbine sanctions-waiver questions. Also, Gazprom is unable to fully use another route as Ukraine has been rejecting its transit applications. In sum, Europe does not have a strategy. Add to that the shut-down of nuclear power stations. And as Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has said, Russia no longer cares to relate to Europe – or the West at large — as it is not “agreement-capable”.

As if all of the above were not enough, many EU members now have to deploy the DE-conversion from natural gas and the RE-conversion into polluting coal. This back-to-coal ´solution´ is (a) very dirty and against Europe´s Green Plan plus other climate pledges and regulations (b) ultra-expensive (c) a major industrial, logistical and social upheaval that would not make it by this coming winter soon knocking on the European doors, and probably not even for next winter 2023-2024. This separate – yet overlapping – set of major madhouse back-to-coal projects also imply enormous logistics risks and major modifications and tight schedules all around, bids, bidders, contract oversight, certification, commissioning, etc., etc., etc for which nobody involved is prepared, neither regulators, nor vendors, nor consultants or engineering firms, nor end users, nor households, nor labor unions, nor the industry at large.

hypnotized renewables

Renewables have various serious problems including their variable power generation limitations. For example, in low wind or low sun seasons such as 2021-2022 which Europe suffers today. Renewables also have very poor optics – “not in my back yard” — plus impact upon bird life with unavoidable and undesirable consequences. And although there is more to be said, let´s conclude with the all-important de-commissioning problem in view of their rather shortish life-span. Furthermore — in order to see the light of day — manufacture of renewables requires humongous loads of nat-gas, oil, coal, minerals and commodities, all of them necessarily sourced in Russia not anywhere else. Unless the problem were to be compounded and worsened on purpose something quite in fashion today in Europe. For instance, manufacturing of wind turbines requires thousands of tons of nickel and rare earth minerals. Also, any such large structures and components thereof are to be transported to temporary and final destinations — and erected — with Russian fossil-powered equipment. Such is also required for the inevitable regular maintenance and end-of-life decommissioning. Solar photovoltaic energy requires humongous amounts of silver beyond belief, a process which also consumes (Russian) fossil fuels in enormous quantities, including the manufacture of the mining equipment required. Furthermore, as soon as renewables in large quantities are added to any electrical grid, costs go up – not down — as they have to be backstopped by fossil-fueled thermal plants that today should also run on Russian fuels. Please understand and accept that the more renewables added, the more natural gas that is needed. People do not accept rolling brown-outs let alone black-outs, so fossil fuel backstops are mandatory. With current existing technologies, promoting fully counter-productive and subsidized renewables expansion as Germany has and continues to do is reckless. EV lithium batteries require lithium mining which in turn has a whole new set of problems to be resolved

Ref #12 https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/lighting-gas-under-european-feet-how-politicians-journalists-get-energy-so-wrong

hypnotized toilet paper

Per “Zeit On-Line” the new European hygiene status is now ready to deploy forces into rolling brown-out territory.

Is this another bad result of the hypnotic spell ? Ref #13 https://www.rt.com/business/559698-germans-warned-toilet-paper-shortage/

hypnotized fish´n´chips

Russian sanctions would leave British pubs without fish’n’chips.

Ref # 14 https://www.rt.com/news/559748-fish-chips-uk-sanctions/

bottom line

Rachel Marsden at RT has summarized it very precisely as follows: “The conflict in Ukraine risks creating the ultimate nightmare for Western elites: an alternative group of allies over which the West has no control, but with the capacity to offer opportunities that are competitive with what their own governments or countries are offering… Western elites are doubling down in Ukraine to save the world order that protects their own selfish interests, thinking that it’s the way to prevent a parallel option from emerging. It’s as simple as that. And they don’t care if it’s the average citizen who has to pay the price”. Ref #15 https://www.rt.com/russia/558490-liberal-world-order-explained/

By banning Russian produce, the EU will bring the European sourcing matrix down on its knees, something which by now has already dawned on the average European also realizing that – at the very best and if not corrupted — their political class is just a bunch of ignorant fools. With these ´Russian sanctions´ EU politicians have unnecessarily set Europe up for hundreds of overlapping, cross-borders, gargantuan projects impossible to fulfill simultaneously, with absurd sequencing and scheduling coordination, plus peremptory timing limitations and deadlines, with countless of well- synchronized engineering specialties and very risky, highly demanding logistics, plus overwhelming legal, political, and environmental aspects. Accordingly, this glorious mismanagement in a decisive decade has the whole EU economy fully at risk with the obvious additional pain of potentially making non-performing rushed and poorly designed modifications everywhere.

Furthermore, Europe will spend a fortune it cannot afford while probably deploying soon-to-fail and trouble full reconversion projects ending up with many half-finished facilities that will not be anywhere ready on time, or ever.

The EU strategy regarding Russian sanctions and arming Ukraine has failed miserably as Europeans are being un-relentlessly ashamed with EU leaders despicably cheating on them and everyone else among other things per non-compliance of the Minsk Accords. Ukraine cannot ever come anywhere close to winning this war, corruption is everywhere rampant and the more weapons Ukraine receives from the West the longer their war will last and the larger territory that Ukraine will lose.

Massive migrations to Club Med countries (mostly PIGS) are highly probable even starting during 2022

Per The Guardian, “…Come October, it’s going to get horrific, truly horrific…a scale beyond what we can deal with”.

Ref #15 https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/apr/19/energy-chiefs-fear-40-of-britons-could-fall-into-fuel-poverty-in-truly-horrific-winter

Authored by Pepe Escobar,

Going To Samarkand

The SCO and other pan-Eurasian organizations play a completely different – respectful, consensual – ball game. And that’s why they are catching the full attention of most of the Global South.

The meeting of the SCO Ministerial Council  in Tashkent this past Friday involved some very serious business. That was the key preparatory reunion previous to the SCO summit in mid-September in fabled Samarkand, where the SCO will release a much-awaited “Declaration of Samarkand”.

What happened in Tashkent was predictably unreported across the collective West and still not digested across great swathes of the East.

So once again it’s up to Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov to cut to the chase. The world’s foremost diplomat – amidst the tragic drama of the American-concocted Era of Non-Diplomacy, Threats and Sanctions – has singled out the two overlapping main themes propelling the SCO as one of the key organizations on the path towards Eurasia integration.

1. Interconnectivity and “the creation of efficient transport corridors”. The War of Economic Corridors is one of the key features of the 21st

2. Drawing “the roadmap for the gradual increase in the share of national currencies in mutual settlements.”

Yet it was in the Q@A session that Lavrov for all practical purposes detailed all the major trends in the current, incandescent state of international relations. These are the key takeaways.

How comfortable are you with the US dollar?

Africa:

“We agreed that we will submit to the leaders for consideration proposals on specific actions to switch to settlements in national currencies. I think that everyone will now think about it. Africa already has a similar experience: common currencies in some sub-regional structures, which, nevertheless, by and large, are pegged to Western ones. From 2023, a continental free trade zone will start functioning on the African continent. A logical step would be to reinforce it with currency agreements.”

Belarus – and many others – eager to join the SCO:

“There is a broad consensus on the Belarusian candidacy (…) I felt it today. There are a number of contenders for the status of observer, dialogue partner. Some Arab countries show such interest, as do Armenia, Azerbaijan and a number of Asian states.”

Grain diplomacy:

“In regard to the issue of Russian grain, it was the American sanctions that did not allow the full implementation of the signed contracts due to the restrictions imposed: Russian ships are prohibited from entering a number of ports, there is a ban on foreign ships entering Russian ports to pick up export cargo, and insurance rates have gone up (…) Financial chains are also interrupted by illegitimate US and EU sanctions. In particular, Rosselkhozbank, through which all the main settlements for food exports pass, was one of the first to be included in the sanctions list. UN Secretary General A. Guterres has committed to removing these barriers to addressing the global food crisis. Let’s see.”

Taiwan:

“We do not discuss this with our Chinese colleague. Russia’s position on having only one China remains unchanged. The United States periodically confirms the same line in words, but in practice their ‘deeds’ do not always coincide with words. We have no problem upholding the principle of Chinese sovereignty.”

Should the SCO abandon the US dollar?

“Each SCO country must decide for itself how comfortable it feels to rely on the dollar, taking into account the absolute unreliability of this currency for possible abuses. The Americans have used this more than once in relation to a number of states.”

Why the SCO matters:

“There are no leaders and followers in the SCO. There are no situations in the organization like in NATO, when the US and its closest allies impose one line or another on all other members of the alliance. In the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, the situation that we are currently seeing in the EU does not arise: sovereign countries are literally being ‘knocked out’, demanding that they either stop buying gas or reduce its consumption in violation of national plans and interests.”

Lavrov was also keen to stress how “other structures in the Eurasian space, for example, the EAEU and BRICS, are based and operate on the same principles” of the SCO. And he referred to the crucial cooperation with the 10 member-nations of ASEAN.

Thus he set the stage for the clincher:

“All these processes, in interconnection, help to form the Greater Eurasian Partnership, which President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly spoken about. We see in them a benefit for the entire population of the Eurasian continent.”

Those Afghan and Arab lives

The real big story of the Raging Twenties  is how the special military operation (SMO) in Ukraine de facto kick-started “all these processes”, as Lavrov mentioned, simultaneously leading towards inexorable Eurasia integration.

Once again he had to recall two basic facts that continue to escape any serious analysis across the collective West:

Fact 1: “All our proposals for their removal [referring to NATO-expansion assets] on the basis of the principle of mutual respect for security interests were ignored by the US, the EU, and NATO.”

Fact 2: “When the Russian language was banned in Ukraine, and the Ukrainian government promoted neo-Nazi theories and practices, the West did not oppose, but, on the contrary, encouraged the actions of the Kyiv regime and admired Ukraine as a ‘stronghold of democracy.’ Western countries supplied the Kyiv regime with weapons and planned the construction of naval bases on Ukrainian territory. All these actions were openly aimed at containing the Russian Federation. We have been warning for 10 years that this is unacceptable.”

It’s also fitting that Lavrov would once again put Afghanistan, Iraq and Libya in context: “Let us recall the example of Afghanistan, when even wedding ceremonies were subjected to air strikes, or Iraq and Libya, where statehood was completely destroyed, and many human lives were sacrificed. When states that easily pursued such a policy are now making a fuss about Ukraine, I can conclude that the lives of Afghans and Arabs mean nothing to Western governments. It’s unfortunate. Double standards, these racist and colonial instincts must be eliminated.”

Putin, Lavrov, Patrushev, Madvedev have all been stressing lately the racist, neocolonial character of the NATOstan matrix. The SCO and other pan-Eurasian organizations play a completely different – respectful, consensual – ball game. And that’s why they are catching the full attention of most of the Global South. Next stop: Samarkand.

The United States spends an unparalleled amount of money on its military⁠ – about $778 billion each year to be precise.

Additionally, as Visual Capitalist’s Avery Koop details below, the U.S. military also owns, leases, or operates an impressive real estate portfolio with buildings valued at $749 billion and a land area of 26.9 million acres⁠, of which around 98% is located within the United States.

This visual, using data from the Department of Defense (DoD) reveals how much of each state the U.S. military owns, leases, or operates on.

This map visualizes the share of a state comprised by military sites, which the Department of Defense defines as a specific geographic location that has individual land parcels or facilities assigned to it. The geographical location is leased to, owned by, or otherwise under the jurisdiction of the DoD.

What is Military Land Used For?

The DoD is the larger government umbrella under which the military falls and the department operates on over 26 million acres of land stateside.

To further break it down the U.S. military is divided into four main branches:

• Army

• Navy

• Air Force

• Marine Corps

There is also the Space Force, the Coast Guard, and the National Guard. However, most of the land is dedicated to the Army, which is the military’s largest branch.

Military bases are used for training and housing soldiers, testing weapons and equipment, conducting research, and running active operations, among other things. A large majority of the square footage is actually designated for family housing.

For example, Fort Bragg, North Carolina, which is one of the most famous U.S. Army bases, is home to more than 260,000 people including the families of soldiers. The base, which is virtually its own city, is the largest U.S. Army installation with 53,700 troops—nearly 10% of the Army—and over 14,000 civilian employees.

Which States Have the Biggest Military Presence?

Looking at the largest total sites, the top 10 combined cover an astonishing 13,927,470 acres, larger than 10 individual states including New Jersey, Massachusetts, and Hawaii.

Here’s a look at the size of the military’s sites in the top 10 states and how much of that state’s land the sites take up:

 

In Hawaii, 5.6% of the state belongs to the military. The historic Pearl Harbor on the island of Oahu is still an active base, housing both the Navy and the Air Force.

 

In the nation’s capital, Washington D.C., 3.9% of the small district is owned or operated on by the military—there are approximately 18 independent sites in the city.

Most of the DoD’s land is in the southwestern United States. One major benefit is that there are areas large enough in these states to test hugely destructive weapons without harming anyone. The atomic bomb was first detonated in the middle of nowhere in New Mexico at the White Sands Missile Range, the biggest military site in the country.

Almost all of the largest military sites fall under the Army branch, which has over 415,000 active personnel. Here’s a look at the U.S. military breakdown in terms of population:

• Active Duty:

  • Army: 415,967

  • Navy: 304,118

  • Marine Corps: 146,728

  • Air Force (also includes Space Force): 273,983

  • Coast Guard: 38,829

• Reserves: 438,645

Beyond just the presence of soldiers across the states, the military also represents a lot of jobs. In total, both on U.S. soil and globally the DoD provides nearly 2.9 million jobs from active duty troops to civilian positions within the military. In California, for example, the military provides over 62,000 civilian jobs.

U.S. Military Presence Beyond its Borders

When it comes to all the land that the military both owns and leases globally, the figure is huge, coming out to 26.9 million acres. The Army controls 51% of the DoD’s land, followed by the Air Force’s 32%.

Military land owned by the DoD can be found outside the U.S. in 8 territories and 45 foreign countries. Here’s a breakdown of where the majority of the U.S.’ foreign bases are:

•  Germany: 194 sites

•  Japan: 121 sites

•  South Korea: 83 sites

In places where there are ongoing conflicts, the U.S. has a few permanent forces. In regular times in Ukraine, there are 23 active duty soldiers permanently stationed. In Russia there are 41 active duty U.S. troops. However, President Joe Biden has recently announced that he will increase the U.S.’ military presence across Europe because of the war in Ukraine.

Authored by Gordon Chang via 19fortyfive.com,

“The position of the Chinese government and people on the Taiwan question is consistent, and resolutely safeguarding China’s national sovereignty and territorial integrity is the firm will of the more than 1.4 billion Chinese people,” Chinese ruler Xi Jinping told President Joe Biden during their phone call on July 28, according to the Chinese foreign ministry. “The public opinion cannot be defied. Those who play with fire will perish by it.”

“Perish”?

Xi’s dire-sounding warning, issued in connection with reports that House Speaker Nancy Pelosi plans to go to Taiwan, suggests either that Xi Jinping perceives Biden to be so weak that he can push him around or that China’s internal problems are so severe that the Communist Party must create an external crisis to distract the Chinese people. In the worst case, both are true.

For about a decade, Chinese leaders have believed the United States has been in terminal decline, and their regime will soon ascend to global dominance.

Biden, at least in their minds, has confirmed this view.

His calamitous withdrawal from Afghanistan and his failure to stop Russia’s invasion of Ukraine left Beijing thinking that it can now do what it wants to Taiwan.

At the same time, Xi’s threat could be the result of regime insecurity. He needs an external crisis so that the Chinese people won’t think too much about the internal ones. Inside China, coronavirus continues to infect the population, and Xi’s “dynamic zero-COVID” policy is causing widespread resentment as well as undermining the ailing economy.

China’s economy, despite the report of 0.4% year-to-year growth in the second quarter, is almost certainly contracting.

At the same time, the debt crisis, delayed for more than a decade, has been hitting the country. Evergrande Group and other large property developers are defaulting on bond and other obligations, apartment projects remain unfinished, buyers of flats are participating in a nationwide “mortgage boycott” by not paying banks, the boycott has spread to suppliers of the developers, and financial institutions across the country are tight on cash. There are bank runs, especially in Henan province, but banks in the financial capital of Shanghai are also in poor condition.

Because property sales have plunged—the sales of the top 100 developers fell 50.3% in the first half of this year—local governments, dependent on property revenue, cannot meet obligations.

A Chinese entrepreneur this month told me that local cadres are trying to extort tens of millions of dollars from his firm. The fiscal problems at lower levels mirror those at the central government. Xi, under the banner of his “Common Prosperity” program, has been extracting tens of billions of dollars from tech giants such as Tencent and Alibaba.

Xi is also leading a nationwide mobilization effort, something signaled by the amendment of China’s National Defense Law, effective the beginning of last year, to transfer power from civilian to military officials, specifically from the central government’s State Council to the Communist Party’s Central Military Commission. The State Council will no longer supervise the mobilization of the People’s Liberation Army, which reports to the Party.

Although the Party has always been in control, the amendment contemplates the mass mobilization of society for war. Owners of private businesses are now being told to manufacture what the Party dictates, a move seen as building up stockpiles for conflict.

Many American analysts say that Speaker Pelosi is provoking a crisis with her reported plans to visit self-governing and democratic Taiwan, which Beijing claims is sovereign Chinese territory. That view is incorrect.

Xi Jinping needs no “provocation” from the Speaker to lash out. Currently, Chinese forces, already below the Line of Actual Control in Ladakh, are preparing to take more Indian territory in the Himalayas. In June, Beijing renewed attempts to block resupply of a Philippine outpost at Second Thomas Shoal, in the South China Sea. In the East China Sea on July 29, four Chinese warships entered Japanese sovereign water around the disputed but Japanese-controlled Senkaku Islands.

Furthermore, as Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Mark Milley pointed out while in Sydney, “Chinese military activity is noticeably and statistically more aggressive than in previous years.” On May 26, for instance, a high-performance Chinese fighter jet accelerated and flew close to an Australian Royal Air Force P-8 reconnaissance aircraft in international airspace in the South China Sea region and released chaff, which was ingested into one of the P-8’s two engines. The Chinese jet also fired flares. This is believed to be the first time any military has used chaff and flares in this manner.

The Chinese defense ministry on July 28, in connection with Pelosi’s reported trip to Taiwan, stated “action is the most powerful language.” Chinese journalist Hu Xijin, who is often used to signal regime positions, on July 29 detailed the circumstances in which China’s military is prepared to bring down the Speaker’s plane.

There are no longer any safe options.

The most dangerous, at least in the long run, is for Speaker Pelosi to back down. By backing down, she will legitimize the most belligerent elements in the Chinese capital by showing everyone else that threats work.

This is now more than just a test of will.

By Peter Tchir of Academy Securities

I Don’t Care, I Love It!

This market took everything that was thrown at it and just ran with it! “Bad” news helped markets rally and “good” news helped even more. Whatever was thrown at the market after Tuesday was absorbed and turned into a reason to celebrate. Trading with “Icona Pop” playing in the background set the right tone for this market!

The Fed

There still seems to be a lot of contention about what the Fed said (or more accurately, meant to say). That is important as the Fed will try and fine tune their message in the coming days and this highlights what we discussed in Did He, Or Didn’t He?

• Did we reach the Neutral Rate? I have seen some long diatribes about why we haven’t reached the neutral rate, at least not in this inflation environment, but we are closer to a long-run neutral rate than not. Parts of the economy have the risk of rolling over, so I suspect that we are done (or almost done) with tightening. I was a bit surprised that the Fed seemed to indicate that too, but it fits with my view on the path of rates so I’m not going to fight against what the “correct” neutral rate is and “around here” seems plausible.
• Balancing Inflation versus Recession risks. I keep coming back to this “disconnect.” What was actually said seemed to tilt slightly to the inflation fighting side. He said multiple things, including (specifically) that we might need unemployment to rise and the economy to slow to achieve reduced inflation. I cannot see any way to read the transcript and not come up with Powell leaning to the inflation fighting side at the expense of the economy. But it was more believable (or even natural) when he sounded dovish. There was a je ne sais quoi about how he delivered dovish versus hawkish messages. Maybe I’m imagining it, but the “inflation fighting” comments sounded more forced than the “data dependent” and “balanced” comments. Additionally, and rightfully so, the market seems to be expecting worse future data than the Fed. So, for the Fed, data dependency means they will examine the data and react to it, but the market decided it means that we will get weaker than expected data, so the Fed reaction function will be to take their foot off the brake.
• Fed Speak. A few members of the Fed have already commented, and overall, their message struck me as trying to put the hawkish message front and center (market reaction was – I Don’t Care – I Love It!)

The market has likely interpreted the Fed as too dovish relative to what they are trying to achieve, but that is difficult to fight given that the central bank has been a friend of the markets far more often than not for the past 25 years or so!

Inflation expectations. One thing to watch is inflation expectations. The St. Louis Fed 5-year, 5-year forward finished the week back at 2.33% (up from 2.1% where it was during July and higher than where it was for most of 2021). University of Michigan 5–10-year inflation expectations missed estimates and stopped their recent decline. That measure was taken before the Fed spoke, so there could be upward pressure on that.

Both market and survey measures of inflation have been moving in the right direction for the Fed, but if those metrics reverse, the Fed may have to adjust their message. This isn’t a “tomorrow” risk, but something to watch closely for in the coming weeks.

Losing Money with Inside Information

If I knew the Q2 GDP number in advance, I would have lost money. I thought that for a small negative, we could rally. I would have bet that a larger negative number, coupled with further downward revisions to Q1, would have caused some selling pressure. That may have even been briefly correct as markets initially embraced the weakness. However, the markets once again latched on to the “lower yields are great for stocks” concept, which I don’t think will work out as well this time as it did in 2020 (Celsius 233).

The Yield Curve

As previously mentioned, we have gone back to the trade where high beta/future potential growth gets rewarded with every tick lower in bond yields.

Heck, the 2s versus 10s finished the most negative it has been, but “I don’t care, I love it” seems to apply here as well. I struggle to embrace the bad news is good news trade and am skeptical that a recession will be moderate enough that dovish Fed policy will outweigh economic or earnings risks, but here we are.

The Return of TINA

I did hear a lot of chatter that There Is No Alternative (TINA) is back in play. It seems likely that investors, collectively, but especially total return/alpha generators are too underweight risk. There were certainly enough examples of companies popping on earnings to support that.

On the flip side, aggressive funds have continued to get inflows all the way down and I saw as many or more indicators pointing to overbought rather than oversold (especially by the end of last week).
On the earnings front, the messaging has been better than I feared, so that is good, but to the extent problems really accelerated this quarter (it was only Tuesday when some warnings linked to the consumer pushed markets down), the entire story isn’t over.

I Crashed my Car into the Bridge. I Don’t Care, I Love It!

Some of the most shorted stocks and assets performed the best last week.

I just want to highlight Ethereum. Yes, there is a “merge” that some think will help a lot, but it jumped 66% in the last two weeks of July. Yes, 66% doesn’t look like a lot on the chart since Ethereum has been pummeled, but in the real world, 66% in a couple of weeks is a lot.

Charts like this scare me because it seems to indicate the “get rich quick” mentality is getting traction again. I don’t like that mentality, but if it has momentum, you don’t want to fight it!

I think what I like so much about this song is how the lyrics seem bad, but the music and singing are so upbeat, it is impossible not to get enthusiastic.

“I crashed my car into the bridge. I watched, I let it burn…I don’t care, I love it!”

Watching so many altcoins do so well for example, after having seemingly been left for dead, is either an opportunity, an indication that animal spirits are fully back in control, or is something to be watched very nervously (while not stepping in the way).

“I Threw your Stuff into a Bag and Pushed it Down the Stairs”

There is so much I could say about this line, but even the T-Report has some self-preservation mechanisms.

Sustainability is Inflationary Near-Term

Senators Schumer and Manchin announced a reconciliation deal that will raise taxes (mostly for corporations if their calculations are correct) and will fuel spending on energy production. There is no guarantee that the bill passes, but if it does, I don’t see how the spending on energy isn’t inflationary at this moment in time. Any new production will take time to come on-line. Sustainable energy eventually can be deflationary, but for now there will be a rush to buy concrete, steel, lithium, etc.

I keep reading headlines that the bill would address inflation, but I haven’t come across an argument about why it helps inflation in the next year? Maybe I’m reading the wrong sources, but I think this bill could spur another round of commodity inflation.

Some “Nagging” Credit Concerns

We’ve seen the housing data continue to deteriorate. Yes, I sound like a broken record, but markets didn’t care about that this week. I’m also hearing that “real-time” data, which I have limited access to, is indicating an uptick in delinquencies on credit cards and auto loans. When I look at the data I have available, I see a slight upturn, but not enough to set off the alarm bells. Just something to watch.

Similarly, it has been difficult to watch what has been happening in European credit markets and not experience a modicum of concern.

The pressure on Italian debt relative to German debt eased a bit. Europe outperformed the U.S. recently on credit spreads as both markets rallied.

That is comforting, but bears scrutiny.

It looks like Germany in particular will be hit by energy restrictions this year. That will affect their economy and their industry. Some of that slack could be picked up globally (including in the U.S.) which may explain why this is trading a bit like a zero-sum game (what Europe loses, someone else gains), but there is a risk that Europe gets bad enough that it drags down the global economy and global markets.

Bottom Line

There has been just enough good news on earnings that I have to respect that companies may be very resilient and if the Fed is easing off the brake, then we could avert the spiral about which I am concerned. Certainly, the wealth effect is back to moving in the right direction, though I’m dubious in the underpinnings of that rally.

I really don’t like the days where “bad news” turns out to be good, but it is difficult to step in front of that freight train which has worked quite well for much of the past few years (like many other things, it seems to work well most of the time, with a few abrupt and severe reversals).

I like buying one-month puts and calls on equities. I think we are at an inflection point.

• I can paint a story about why stocks will give up last week’s gains and head towards new lows (layoffs just starting, earning warnings yet to come, tapped out consumer, excess inventories, resurgence in commodity prices coupled with Fed hawkish leanings, etc.). That scenario feels more “real” to me.
• But, the “everything is good” scenario could play out. First comes TINA then comes FOMO. The Fed lets the economy run hot. We get some stimulus. China sorts itself out. Housing reaches a level where buying resumes across the board. More people get forced into the market. The market bounce lets companies spend again. The virtuous cycle starts again. I find this one less believable, but am reluctant to fight it.

So, with VIX back to 21, trying to capture a big move in either direction is compelling to me.

Overweight commodities again! If the stimulus is going to go through, I want to own the commodity complex. Emerging Markets (particularly Latin America) should also benefit.

Companies of the “past” will be the companies of the “future.” With EV incentives a part of any stimulus plan, we could see a surge in purchases there (though a chunk of that will be pulling forward demand rather than creating new demand, but that is a story for another day). With the ever-increasing number of EV offerings, there is room for growth both at the “new” EV centric companies, but also for the traditional autos. I own some of them and will be adding more. The same theory fits across energy and other areas, but they are already picked up in my “commodity resurgence” theme.

I still like yield products, though with the 10-year Treasury back to 2.65%, I’d lean towards credit and structured products. Credit has room to tighten and will benefit from stable yields. If yields rise a little, which seems likely given where they are, credit spreads could offset that.

Markets and even the economy continue to be volatile, illiquid, and reactionary. I wish things would get easier sooner than later, but I expect the next few weeks to be more of the same.

Authored by Josh Hammer via The Epoch Times,

Community organizer and left-wing social activist Saul Alinsky wrote, in his 1971 book “Rules for Radicals,” that “he who controls the language controls the masses.”

Alinsky, whose work profoundly influenced at least one notable fellow Chicagoan, Barack Obama, was in that quip channeling George Orwell’s famous dystopian novel, “1984.”

“Newspeak,” the language of Orwell’s fictional single-political party superstate, was a tool devised for monitoring the people’s communications, prosecuting “thoughtcrimes,” and ultimately controlling and dictating the people’s very beliefs.

Conservatives have taken pleasure in poking fun at the modern Left’s “Orwellian” tendencies—perhaps too much, actually, as overuse of the accusation has had the effect of limiting its potency. But as the woke ideology metastasizes within the American Left like the cancer it is, and as censors increasingly clamp down on anything sniffing of dissent to the regime’s orthodoxy, it is now clear that we are in a new age of Orwellianism.

In this new age, the regime and its enforcers pursue the suffusion of its orthodoxy at any cost, gaslighting dissenters into not believing their own lying eyes.

Last week, new governmental data revealed that the American economy, measured by gross domestic product, contracted for the second straight quarter.

That was, up until perhaps two weeks ago, the universally accepted definition of what constitutes a “recession.” This was not a partisan issue; indeed, well-known liberal, Democratic Party economists have frequently defined recession in precisely these terms. Back in 2008, President Joe Biden’s current National Economic Council director, Brian Deese, stated: “Of course economists have a technical definition of recession, which is two consecutive quarters of negative growth.” And in 2019, top Biden economic adviser Jared Bernstein said that a “recession” is “defined as two consecutive quarters of declining growth.”

Democrats are now singing a different tune.

White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre has stubbornly refused to concede that America is now in an economic recession. Deese apparently also disagrees with his old self of 2008: Following the release of the data evincing the second straight quarter of economic contraction, Deese stipulated that we are “certainly in a transition,” but also added that “virtually nothing signals that this period … is recessionary.” The ruse is transparent and obvious to the point of comedy. As famed investor David Sacks tweeted: “A lot of people are wondering about the definition of recession. A recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth if a Republican is president. The definition is far more complicated and unknowable if a Democrat is president.”

Democrats similarly seem interested in changing the definition of “inflation,” which currently sits at four-decade highs and is disproportionately responsible for Biden’s dismal job approval ratings and Democrats’ unfavorable political outlook this fall. The widely accepted economic definition of inflation is when there is too much money chasing too few goods. The way to tamp down inflation is thus to limit the money supply and/or increase the production of goods.

Just last week, around the same time as when the United States formally entered a recession, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) and Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) finally reached an agreement on a version of the White House’s long-sought after Build Back Better domestic initiative. But Democrats renamed the bill: It is now not called Build Back Better but the Inflation Reduction Act.

And the revised bill includes new government expenditures to the tune of nearly $400 billion in energy- and climate-related spending. Authorizing such a fiscal boondoggle is the precise opposite of limiting the money supply. It is the logical equivalent of trying to put out a fire with a blowtorch.

Remarkably, it is the same ideologues who are eager to change the well-accepted definitions of “recession” and “inflation” who remain perplexed as to what exactly a “woman” is. In March, then-Judge Ketanji Brown Jackson, during her Senate Judiciary Committee confirmation hearing to replace the retiring Justice Stephen Breyer on the Supreme Court, pointedly refused to define what a “woman” is. Her excuse was that she is “not a biologist.” Related, in Matt Walsh’s excellent new documentary, “What Is a Woman?,” the myriad “gender studies” professors and gender ideology-bewitched “doctors” interviewed by Walsh invariably define a “woman,” in circular fashion, as being “someone who identifies as a woman.”

Whether it is a Supreme Court justice herself or the vogue flatulence that now constitutes “gender studies” in the American academy, then, the Left is incapable of defining what a “woman” is. That confusion appears to be ubiquitous: Lia Thomas, the biological man who has been wreaking havoc in women’s collegiate swimming, was even nominated for the 2022 NCAA Woman of the Year award. Alinsky would be proud of such an imperious enforcement of regime-approved orthodoxy; “he who controls the language controls the masses,” after all.

The Left’s fundamental problem is that its haughtiness, fervor and zeal for gaslighting us sane Americans is belied by its unpopularity. It is curious that the Left can talk and act this way when its most notable avatar, Biden, is as severely unpopular as he currently is. Perhaps the Left will be chastened by its impending November defeats at the ballot box. But don’t bet on it.