This Health Care Law Bars Competition And Drives Up Prices, Even as a Pandemic Rages

Outpatient facility

COVID-19 has forced doctors to postpone many types of surgeries, but some things can’t wait. Ophthalmologist Jay Singleton saw one man at risk of permanent blindness on a recent Friday evening in New Bern, North Carolina.

“He had a rare type of glaucoma caused by a large cataract, and the only thing to do was to remove it so the pressure would go down inside the eye,” Singleton says. “We knew it was a very real situation because he already had lost one of his eyes to the same thing.”

Singleton had all the skills and equipment necessary for the job at his state-of-the-art vision center. Unfortunately, the government won’t let him use his space for the vast majority of the surgeries he performs.

North Carolina and many other states impose a regulatory tool called a “certificate of need” (CON), which forces health care providers to prove an unmet need in the market before operating a facility, scaling up, or purchasing major medical equipment. In practice, CON laws block new competition, funneling traffic to big hospital systems—the last thing that should happen during a global pandemic.

“Most of my patients don’t have a choice,” Singleton says. “They are being herded into these facilities.”

The top-down approach to health care creates other problems, which multiply during a crisis like COVID-19. Some governors have recognized the folly and suspended their CON programs during the pandemic. Singleton’s case shows why these changes should be made permanent.

If he wants to collect from Medicare for any surgery he performs, the doctor must travel two miles down the road to a competitor’s outpatient facilities in the CarolinaEast Health System. Besides doubling or tripling the costs for most procedures, the coerced arrangement creates accessibility problems.

By the time Singleton made his afterhours diagnosis on June 19, the doors at the state-approved facility had already shut for Father’s Day weekend. “Once it’s closed, you’re done,” Singleton says.

Faced with no other option, he did what his oath dictated. He performed the surgery at his own clinic, knowing he never would get paid. “If somebody is in really bad need, I just write it off and do the surgery,” he says. “They are not Patient No. 643 dash 21. They are my patient, and we have a personal relationship.”

CarolinaEast takes a more corporate approach. With the government ensuring so much business, the $1.3 billion system can inflate facility fees without worrying about losing customers. “Hospitals set their own pay schedules, and they are quite confidential about how they arrive at those,” Singleton says. “You can’t get in to see their black books, so they can charge what they want.”

Picking Winners and Losers

Such protectionism would not stand in most other industries. When entrepreneurs want to open a restaurant or coffee shop, for example, they do their own market research. They don’t let the government determine need, and they certainly don’t let their competitors decide.

The opposite happens with CON laws, which function like government permission slips. North Carolina and many other states don’t just appoint panels of bureaucrats to determine what services are “needed”; they invite existing providers to testify against their potential rivals. The rigged rules all but guarantee unequal treatment.

If regulators decide that a particular neighborhood does not need another provider or service, the applicant is out of luck. Independent doctors and patients have little say in the process.

The red tape that interferes with doctor-patient relationships in New Bern is just one example. Overall, 35 states and the District of Columbia use CON laws to limit growth. Regulators even use their veto powers to stop colon cancer screenings and low-cost MRI scans.

None of the oversight has anything to do with public health or safety. Separate laws govern who may practice medicine and what kinds of procedures they may perform. Applicants would carry the same medical credentials as those currently in the marketplace. The real goal of CON laws is to limit competition for established providers.

“Who is hurt the most? It is easily the patient,” Singleton says.

Rather than accept the protectionism, he partnered with the nonprofit Institute for Justice and fought back in court. (Full disclosure: The authors of this article work for the institute.) Health care providers in Kentucky, Nebraska, Virginia and Iowa have joined the Institute for Justice in separate lawsuits.

“The CON idea is obviously a failed experiment,” Singleton says. “But large hospital systems guard CON laws fiercely because they are very good at generating revenue and controlling competition locally.”

Playing Both Sides

CON law supporters claim that different economic rules apply to health care. HopeHealth President and CEO Diana Franchitto made this argument explicitly in a May 19, 2020, letter to Rhode Island’s CON board.

“While market competition is generally healthy for most industries,” she wrote, “the state’s certificate of need requirements for healthcare recognize that unregulated increases in some healthcare services can result in unnecessary duplication of services, higher-cost care and lower quality of care.”

Franchitto provided no evidence to support her claims, nor did she address her conflict of interest. When she wrote the opinion, she and other established providers were rallying to stop a potential competitor, Seasons Hospice & Palliative Care, from entering the Rhode Island market. The campaign paid off on June 9, when the CON board voted unanimously to block the interloper.

Singleton sees similar campaigns in North Carolina. He says CON advocates talk about health care like a business when it serves their purposes—like when they complain about lost revenue from canceled surgeries during COVID-19—but then turn around and talk about health care like a community service when they want tax breaks and CON protection.

“You have to pick a side,” Singleton says. “If you treat it like a business, you must allow other people to enter the market and compete with you like every other business. If you treat it like a public partnership, then you can’t enrich yourself on the backs of Medicare patients. You can’t have it both ways.”

Singleton made a medical decision, not a business decision, when he performed the free cataract surgery for his after-hours patient, an African-American retiree from a low-income community. But unlike the CON board, which makes decisions for others, he acted on his own.

History of Failure

Decades of history and multiple studies show that CON laws are both anticompetitive and anti-scientific.

New York passed the first medical CON law in 1964, saying it reduced costs by cutting down on unnecessary services. The American Hospital Association, recognizing the system’s money-making potential, then began a campaign to pass similar laws nationwide. By 1974 the U.S. government had joined in, offering states financial incentives to adopt CON laws.

The lure of federal funding led every state but Louisiana to establish CON programs. But over time, evidence of the harmful effects accumulated. Finally in 1986, Congress admitted its error and repealed funding. Since then, 15 states—including California, Colorado, and most recently New Hampshire—have eliminated their CON programs.

None of these states has experienced any negative effects. Indeed, Matthew Mitchell, a researcher at George Mason University’s Mercatus Center, says states that got rid of their CON laws have more hospitals and surgery centers per capita, along with more hospital beds, dialysis clinics, and hospice care facilities.

“Forty years of peer-reviewed academic research suggests that CON laws have not only failed to achieve their goals but have in many cases led to the opposite of what those who enacted the laws intended,” he says.

CON advocates ignore the evidence, including a joint report from two federal antitrust agencies—the Federal Trade Commission and the Antitrust Division of the Justice Department. The 2004 study finds no reliable evidence that CON laws achieve any public benefit.

Kentucky hired Deloitte to provide another opinion in 2013, but regulators rejected the results when the consulting firm recommended dismantling the state’s entire CON program. Big hospitals suggested a few tweaks instead, and the state complied.

Killing Innovation

These laws also block innovation from entrepreneurs with fresh ideas for serving their communities. Another Institute for Justice client, Dipendra Tiwari, discovered that when he tried to launch a home health care agency in Kentucky that focused on Nepali speakers from the Himalayan region where he was born.

Tiwari spoke the language, understood the culture, and had the connections to deliver customized care that no other agency in the state could match. He also had the requisite business skills. After immigrating to the United States in 2008, he earned an MBA and launched an accounting firm. Yet when Tiwari stepped forward to fill the market gap in home health care, the state CON board shut him down.

Customers wanted his service, yet regulators determined lack of “need” based on a formula that fails to consider factors like culture and language. Instead, the system counts all Kentucky residents the same—like interchangeable widgets on a spreadsheet.

The impersonal approach benefits Baptist Healthcare System, a $2 billion conglomerate founded almost a century ago. Despite the rigid CON rules that would block Tiwari regardless of his qualifications, Baptist Health piled on with a formal objection to his application.

Tiwari says his lawsuit is not just for himself, but for people like his bedridden neighbor, a refugee from the Nepali-speaking Lhotshampa community in Bhutan. It’s not easy to get truly personal care from providers who do not know your language or culture.

“Few things are as personal as home health care,” Tiwari says. “Families should be able to choose for themselves who comes into their bedrooms.”

Adapting to the Pandemic

Many states, including Connecticut, Georgia, and South Carolina, suspended their CON laws after the pandemic came to America. Other states, such as Rhode Island, rolled back CON laws at hospitals and nursing facilities but not outpatient surgery centers or hospices.

Instead of just being a temporary reprieve, these emergency actions should be expanded and made permanent. COVID-19 could change the health care landscape for years to come, and communities will need responsive providers willing to adapt—not government-mandated restrictions, anticompetitive red tape, and monopolistic high costs.

“All we’re asking the state to do is to repeal a bad law,” Singleton says. “Sometimes you make mistakes, so you have to go back and take care of that mistake.”

Things worked out for Singleton’s emergency patient. “Now his pressure is normal, and he is seeing better,” Singleton says. But the next case could be worse. States should not force patients to press their luck.

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The Pandemic Is a Lucrative Revenue Opportunity for Incompetent Politicians

splrfphotos143209

The federal government’s response to COVID-19 has been a hot mess, and state and city officials haven’t done much better. But if there’s one thing at which governments have excelled during this crisis, it’s been collecting fines from anybody who steps out of line.

Whatever else it is, the great pandemic of 2020 has turned into a revenue-collection opportunity for officials who demonstrate little competence at anything other than squeezing their unfortunate subjects.

In Selah, Washington, Anytime Fitness was fined almost $10,000 by state officials. The owners’ crime? In defiance of the governor’s decree closing such businesses, they opened their doors to willing customers who wanted to make use of the gym’s facilities.

Slidewaters, an outdoor water park, was mugged by Washington for the same amount when it opened its gates without permission.

In Chicago, multiple businesses face similar five-figure fines “for failing to maintain social distancing.”

Nashville, Tennessee, issued citations to dozens of businesses for serving those seeking their services. In the face of criticism about selective prosecution, Metro Public Health Director Michael Caldwell snapped that “operating a business in Nashville Davidson County is a privilege, not a right.”

Nashville’s mayor now insists that city police cite anybody not wearing a face mask in public. The violation carries a $50 penalty—a sum that could add up to big bucks with a little enforcement effort.

But forget a measly fifty bucks—you can squeeze people for even more cash if you hit the unmasked with $100 fines, like Florida’s Miami-Dade County has authorized.

Even more lucratively, Rockland County, New York, residents were threatened with fines of $2,000 per day for blowing off contact tracers.

And travelers to the state of New York can be hit with $2,000 fines if they fail to fill out tracking forms documenting their starting points and their destinations. The requirement is especially interesting since “many passengers said they were unaware they were required to fill out the forms,” according to the New York Daily News. And even among those forms filled out and submitted, none were checked for correct information before they disappeared into a box.

That last example of incompetently administered mandates carrying heavy penalties is a nice example of the contrast between the lockstep obedience government officials demand of the public and the Keystone Cops-quality performance they themselves deliver around the country. Government officials expect that their indecision, poor judgment, lack of foresight, and deadly failures will be overlooked or forgiven, even as they anticipate a profitable take from putting the screws to anybody who fails to submit to their whims.

Those whims include New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo’s order (against the advice of the American Health Care Association) that nursing homes must admit COVID-19 patients. “In the weeks that followed the March 25 order, COVID-19 tore through New York state’s nursing facilities, killing more than 6,000 people — about 6% of its more than 100,000 nursing home residents,” ProPublica reported in June.

Even as he set up senior citizens as guinea pigs, Cuomo engaged in a high-profile feud with New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio over who got to set pandemic policy for the city’s residents.

It was an example emulated in Georgia where Gov. Brian Kemp and Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms also battled over who got to call the shots.

Disagreements over who gets to dictate what have run all the way to the top, with President Donald Trump wrongly claiming he has “total authority” over such decisions, leading to battles with governors who may be no more competent to issue decrees but have somewhat better standing under the law. The president also fights the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention over guidelines for reopening schools in the fall.

Spatting politicians don’t agree on how people should avoid spreading the virus, when and how schools should reopen, or the proper balance between social distancing and economic survival, but you can bet they’ll cite and fine any mere taxpayer who doesn’t obey whichever official comes out on top.

Meanwhile, it might not cost a well-connected political type anything. Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker made it clear that stay-at-home orders applied only to the little people when his family traveled in defiance of his own commands. A similar “we’re above all that” attitude prevails in the environs of Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, whose husband sought special treatment as the state emerged from travel restrictions.

If the last few months under contradictory, incompetent, selectively enforced, and sometimes deadly pandemic policy have demonstrated anything, it’s that government officials are just floundering in the dark as they inflict policy decisions on the public. But whatever they do decide, we’d all damned well better obey, or else we’ll have to cough up hefty fines for noncompliance.

Maybe that’s because, when nothing else is clear, milking the public occupies the center of any given politician’s happy place. Government officials really don’t know how to properly use the power they have. More importantly, they don’t know when to not use that vast and dangerous power—but, by God, they know how to fill the coffers by punishing the public for not submitting to the whim of the moment. That’s how a pandemic brings a new plague of fines that raise revenue for a government that doesn’t have the slightest idea of how to productively use the haul.

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via IFTTT

This Health Care Law Bars Competition And Drives Up Prices, Even as a Pandemic Rages

Outpatient facility

COVID-19 has forced doctors to postpone many types of surgeries, but some things can’t wait. Ophthalmologist Jay Singleton saw one man at risk of permanent blindness on a recent Friday evening in New Bern, North Carolina.

“He had a rare type of glaucoma caused by a large cataract, and the only thing to do was to remove it so the pressure would go down inside the eye,” Singleton says. “We knew it was a very real situation because he already had lost one of his eyes to the same thing.”

Singleton had all the skills and equipment necessary for the job at his state-of-the-art vision center. Unfortunately, the government won’t let him use his space for the vast majority of the surgeries he performs.

North Carolina and many other states impose a regulatory tool called a “certificate of need” (CON), which forces health care providers to prove an unmet need in the market before operating a facility, scaling up, or purchasing major medical equipment. In practice, CON laws block new competition, funneling traffic to big hospital systems—the last thing that should happen during a global pandemic.

“Most of my patients don’t have a choice,” Singleton says. “They are being herded into these facilities.”

The top-down approach to health care creates other problems, which multiply during a crisis like COVID-19. Some governors have recognized the folly and suspended their CON programs during the pandemic. Singleton’s case shows why these changes should be made permanent.

If he wants to collect from Medicare for any surgery he performs, the doctor must travel two miles down the road to a competitor’s outpatient facilities in the CarolinaEast Health System. Besides doubling or tripling the costs for most procedures, the coerced arrangement creates accessibility problems.

By the time Singleton made his afterhours diagnosis on June 19, the doors at the state-approved facility had already shut for Father’s Day weekend. “Once it’s closed, you’re done,” Singleton says.

Faced with no other option, he did what his oath dictated. He performed the surgery at his own clinic, knowing he never would get paid. “If somebody is in really bad need, I just write it off and do the surgery,” he says. “They are not Patient No. 643 dash 21. They are my patient, and we have a personal relationship.”

CarolinaEast takes a more corporate approach. With the government ensuring so much business, the $1.3 billion system can inflate facility fees without worrying about losing customers. “Hospitals set their own pay schedules, and they are quite confidential about how they arrive at those,” Singleton says. “You can’t get in to see their black books, so they can charge what they want.”

Picking Winners and Losers

Such protectionism would not stand in most other industries. When entrepreneurs want to open a restaurant or coffee shop, for example, they do their own market research. They don’t let the government determine need, and they certainly don’t let their competitors decide.

The opposite happens with CON laws, which function like government permission slips. North Carolina and many other states don’t just appoint panels of bureaucrats to determine what services are “needed”; they invite existing providers to testify against their potential rivals. The rigged rules all but guarantee unequal treatment.

If regulators decide that a particular neighborhood does not need another provider or service, the applicant is out of luck. Independent doctors and patients have little say in the process.

The red tape that interferes with doctor-patient relationships in New Bern is just one example. Overall, 35 states and the District of Columbia use CON laws to limit growth. Regulators even use their veto powers to stop colon cancer screenings and low-cost MRI scans.

None of the oversight has anything to do with public health or safety. Separate laws govern who may practice medicine and what kinds of procedures they may perform. Applicants would carry the same medical credentials as those currently in the marketplace. The real goal of CON laws is to limit competition for established providers.

“Who is hurt the most? It is easily the patient,” Singleton says.

Rather than accept the protectionism, he partnered with the nonprofit Institute for Justice and fought back in court. (Full disclosure: The authors of this article work for the institute.) Health care providers in Kentucky, Nebraska, Virginia and Iowa have joined the Institute for Justice in separate lawsuits.

“The CON idea is obviously a failed experiment,” Singleton says. “But large hospital systems guard CON laws fiercely because they are very good at generating revenue and controlling competition locally.”

Playing Both Sides

CON law supporters claim that different economic rules apply to health care. HopeHealth President and CEO Diana Franchitto made this argument explicitly in a May 19, 2020, letter to Rhode Island’s CON board.

“While market competition is generally healthy for most industries,” she wrote, “the state’s certificate of need requirements for healthcare recognize that unregulated increases in some healthcare services can result in unnecessary duplication of services, higher-cost care and lower quality of care.”

Franchitto provided no evidence to support her claims, nor did she address her conflict of interest. When she wrote the opinion, she and other established providers were rallying to stop a potential competitor, Seasons Hospice & Palliative Care, from entering the Rhode Island market. The campaign paid off on June 9, when the CON board voted unanimously to block the interloper.

Singleton sees similar campaigns in North Carolina. He says CON advocates talk about health care like a business when it serves their purposes—like when they complain about lost revenue from canceled surgeries during COVID-19—but then turn around and talk about health care like a community service when they want tax breaks and CON protection.

“You have to pick a side,” Singleton says. “If you treat it like a business, you must allow other people to enter the market and compete with you like every other business. If you treat it like a public partnership, then you can’t enrich yourself on the backs of Medicare patients. You can’t have it both ways.”

Singleton made a medical decision, not a business decision, when he performed the free cataract surgery for his after-hours patient, an African-American retiree from a low-income community. But unlike the CON board, which makes decisions for others, he acted on his own.

History of Failure

Decades of history and multiple studies show that CON laws are both anticompetitive and anti-scientific.

New York passed the first medical CON law in 1964, saying it reduced costs by cutting down on unnecessary services. The American Hospital Association, recognizing the system’s money-making potential, then began a campaign to pass similar laws nationwide. By 1974 the U.S. government had joined in, offering states financial incentives to adopt CON laws.

The lure of federal funding led every state but Louisiana to establish CON programs. But over time, evidence of the harmful effects accumulated. Finally in 1986, Congress admitted its error and repealed funding. Since then, 15 states—including California, Colorado, and most recently New Hampshire—have eliminated their CON programs.

None of these states has experienced any negative effects. Indeed, Matthew Mitchell, a researcher at George Mason University’s Mercatus Center, says states that got rid of their CON laws have more hospitals and surgery centers per capita, along with more hospital beds, dialysis clinics, and hospice care facilities.

“Forty years of peer-reviewed academic research suggests that CON laws have not only failed to achieve their goals but have in many cases led to the opposite of what those who enacted the laws intended,” he says.

CON advocates ignore the evidence, including a joint report from two federal antitrust agencies—the Federal Trade Commission and the Antitrust Division of the Justice Department. The 2004 study finds no reliable evidence that CON laws achieve any public benefit.

Kentucky hired Deloitte to provide another opinion in 2013, but regulators rejected the results when the consulting firm recommended dismantling the state’s entire CON program. Big hospitals suggested a few tweaks instead, and the state complied.

Killing Innovation

These laws also block innovation from entrepreneurs with fresh ideas for serving their communities. Another Institute for Justice client, Dipendra Tiwari, discovered that when he tried to launch a home health care agency in Kentucky that focused on Nepali speakers from the Himalayan region where he was born.

Tiwari spoke the language, understood the culture, and had the connections to deliver customized care that no other agency in the state could match. He also had the requisite business skills. After immigrating to the United States in 2008, he earned an MBA and launched an accounting firm. Yet when Tiwari stepped forward to fill the market gap in home health care, the state CON board shut him down.

Customers wanted his service, yet regulators determined lack of “need” based on a formula that fails to consider factors like culture and language. Instead, the system counts all Kentucky residents the same—like interchangeable widgets on a spreadsheet.

The impersonal approach benefits Baptist Healthcare System, a $2 billion conglomerate founded almost a century ago. Despite the rigid CON rules that would block Tiwari regardless of his qualifications, Baptist Health piled on with a formal objection to his application.

Tiwari says his lawsuit is not just for himself, but for people like his bedridden neighbor, a refugee from the Nepali-speaking Lhotshampa community in Bhutan. It’s not easy to get truly personal care from providers who do not know your language or culture.

“Few things are as personal as home health care,” Tiwari says. “Families should be able to choose for themselves who comes into their bedrooms.”

Adapting to the Pandemic

Many states, including Connecticut, Georgia, and South Carolina, suspended their CON laws after the pandemic came to America. Other states, such as Rhode Island, rolled back CON laws at hospitals and nursing facilities but not outpatient surgery centers or hospices.

Instead of just being a temporary reprieve, these emergency actions should be expanded and made permanent. COVID-19 could change the health care landscape for years to come, and communities will need responsive providers willing to adapt—not government-mandated restrictions, anticompetitive red tape, and monopolistic high costs.

“All we’re asking the state to do is to repeal a bad law,” Singleton says. “Sometimes you make mistakes, so you have to go back and take care of that mistake.”

Things worked out for Singleton’s emergency patient. “Now his pressure is normal, and he is seeing better,” Singleton says. But the next case could be worse. States should not force patients to press their luck.

from Latest – Reason.com https://ift.tt/3eHOJ1P
via IFTTT

The Pandemic Is a Lucrative Revenue Opportunity for Incompetent Politicians

splrfphotos143209

The federal government’s response to COVID-19 has been a hot mess, and state and city officials haven’t done much better. But if there’s one thing at which governments have excelled during this crisis, it’s been collecting fines from anybody who steps out of line.

Whatever else it is, the great pandemic of 2020 has turned into a revenue-collection opportunity for officials who demonstrate little competence at anything other than squeezing their unfortunate subjects.

In Selah, Washington, Anytime Fitness was fined almost $10,000 by state officials. The owners’ crime? In defiance of the governor’s decree closing such businesses, they opened their doors to willing customers who wanted to make use of the gym’s facilities.

Slidewaters, an outdoor water park, was mugged by Washington for the same amount when it opened its gates without permission.

In Chicago, multiple businesses face similar five-figure fines “for failing to maintain social distancing.”

Nashville, Tennessee, issued citations to dozens of businesses for serving those seeking their services. In the face of criticism about selective prosecution, Metro Public Health Director Michael Caldwell snapped that “operating a business in Nashville Davidson County is a privilege, not a right.”

Nashville’s mayor now insists that city police cite anybody not wearing a face mask in public. The violation carries a $50 penalty—a sum that could add up to big bucks with a little enforcement effort.

But forget a measly fifty bucks—you can squeeze people for even more cash if you hit the unmasked with $100 fines, like Florida’s Miami-Dade County has authorized.

Even more lucratively, Rockland County, New York, residents were threatened with fines of $2,000 per day for blowing off contact tracers.

And travelers to the state of New York can be hit with $2,000 fines if they fail to fill out tracking forms documenting their starting points and their destinations. The requirement is especially interesting since “many passengers said they were unaware they were required to fill out the forms,” according to the New York Daily News. And even among those forms filled out and submitted, none were checked for correct information before they disappeared into a box.

That last example of incompetently administered mandates carrying heavy penalties is a nice example of the contrast between the lockstep obedience government officials demand of the public and the Keystone Cops-quality performance they themselves deliver around the country. Government officials expect that their indecision, poor judgment, lack of foresight, and deadly failures will be overlooked or forgiven, even as they anticipate a profitable take from putting the screws to anybody who fails to submit to their whims.

Those whims include New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo’s order (against the advice of the American Health Care Association) that nursing homes must admit COVID-19 patients. “In the weeks that followed the March 25 order, COVID-19 tore through New York state’s nursing facilities, killing more than 6,000 people — about 6% of its more than 100,000 nursing home residents,” ProPublica reported in June.

Even as he set up senior citizens as guinea pigs, Cuomo engaged in a high-profile feud with New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio over who got to set pandemic policy for the city’s residents.

It was an example emulated in Georgia where Gov. Brian Kemp and Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms also battled over who got to call the shots.

Disagreements over who gets to dictate what have run all the way to the top, with President Donald Trump wrongly claiming he has “total authority” over such decisions, leading to battles with governors who may be no more competent to issue decrees but have somewhat better standing under the law. The president also fights the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention over guidelines for reopening schools in the fall.

Spatting politicians don’t agree on how people should avoid spreading the virus, when and how schools should reopen, or the proper balance between social distancing and economic survival, but you can bet they’ll cite and fine any mere taxpayer who doesn’t obey whichever official comes out on top.

Meanwhile, it might not cost a well-connected political type anything. Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker made it clear that stay-at-home orders applied only to the little people when his family traveled in defiance of his own commands. A similar “we’re above all that” attitude prevails in the environs of Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, whose husband sought special treatment as the state emerged from travel restrictions.

If the last few months under contradictory, incompetent, selectively enforced, and sometimes deadly pandemic policy have demonstrated anything, it’s that government officials are just floundering in the dark as they inflict policy decisions on the public. But whatever they do decide, we’d all damned well better obey, or else we’ll have to cough up hefty fines for noncompliance.

Maybe that’s because, when nothing else is clear, milking the public occupies the center of any given politician’s happy place. Government officials really don’t know how to properly use the power they have. More importantly, they don’t know when to not use that vast and dangerous power—but, by God, they know how to fill the coffers by punishing the public for not submitting to the whim of the moment. That’s how a pandemic brings a new plague of fines that raise revenue for a government that doesn’t have the slightest idea of how to productively use the haul.

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via IFTTT

The Odds Are Stacked Against Investors In A Post-COVID Economy

The Odds Are Stacked Against Investors In A Post-COVID Economy

Tyler Durden

Mon, 07/20/2020 – 10:20

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

Since the March 23rd lows, retail investors have jumped into the equity market with little concern about the potential risk. The “Pavlovian” response to the Fed’s massive monetary interventions has pushed “risk-taking” to extremes. Unfortunately, the odds are stacked against investors in a post-COVID economy.

In a recent newsletter, we discussed our process of “taking profits” in positions that had reached more extreme overbought conditions. As is usual in a market where “momentum” is in vogue, we received numerous emails about the “folly” of selling our technology holdings.

It Isn’t Folly.

It is a usual practice of mitigating risk to protect capital for our long-term investment cycle. Interestingly, while there is little doubt that patience is a virtue for investors, exercising prudence is equally important. Despite the basic math, and historical evidence proving its usefulness, investors typically ignore prudence, especially when it is required most. The “siren’s song” of a momentum-driven market fueled by a “speculative greed” is inevitably too compelling for many investors.

Such is particularly notable in the Nasdaq where several signals from option speculation to a buying climax last week. As noted by SentimenTrader:

“The reversal in the Nasdaq 100 coincided with the 2nd-largest number of buying climaxes in those stocks. Only early 2018 had more.”

However, for investors, there is a more significant concern longer-term. On the heels of the first quarter’s GDP release, it is clear the economy has slid into a recession. That recession will worsen markedly when we begin to see the second-quarter results here soon. What investors haven’t fully grasped is the corresponding relationship between the economy and corporate profits.

The Relationship

“There is currently a ‘Great Divide’ happening between the near ‘depressionary’ economy versus a surging bull market in equities. Given the relationship between the two, they both can’t be right.” – RIA

Throughout history, there has been, and remains, a close relationship between the economy, earnings, and asset prices over time. The chart below compares the three going back to 1947 with an estimate for 2020 using the latest data points.

Since 1947, earnings per share have grown at 6.21% annually, while the economy expanded by 6.47% annually. That close relationship in growth rates should be logical, particularly given the significant role that consumer spending has in the GDP equation.

The Consumption Function

While stock prices can deviate from immediate activity, reversions to actual economic growth eventually occur. Such is because corporate earnings are a function of consumptive spending, corporate investments, imports, and exports. 

Unsurprisingly, there is a precise correlation between PCE and GDP. If consumption contracts due to high levels of unemployment, then economic growth declines.

However, when it comes to investing, exports are a critical factor. Exports comprise roughly 40% of corporate profits, and also have a high correlation to consumption and related economic activity.

It should be evident that corporate earnings and profits correlate highly with economic activity. While Business Investment and Government Spending do have an input into the economy, consumption ultimately drives profits.

A Post-COVID Economic Recovery

While I have addressed these points above previously, they are an essential context for where we are in the current market and economic cycle.

Investors are currently under the assumption the economy will make a “V-shaped” recovery and return to pre-pandemic levels. Given the surge in debts and deficits, a continuing demographic shift, and the lag of employment recovery, it is unlikely such an optimistic recovery will be possible in the short-term.

Furthermore, we have experience with post-crisis recoveries. Before the “Financial Crisis,” the economy had a linear growth trend of real GDP of 3.2%. Following the 2008 recession, the growth rate dropped to the exponential growth trend of roughly 2.2%. Instead of reducing the debt problems, unproductive debt, and leverage increased.

Given the “COVID-19” crisis led to a debt surge to new highs, such will retard future economic growth to 1.5% or less. As discussed recently, while the stock market may rise due to massive Fed liquidity, only 10% of the population owning 88% of the market will benefit. However, for corporate earnings and profits to fully recover, it requires 100% of the economy to participate.

Importantly, as noted above, the economy has not and will not grow at an annualized pace of 6.47%. As such, lower returns from the market long-term due to the inherent relationship between the market and the economy, will plague investors.

Stock Prices & The Economy

As stated, the stock market often detaches from underlying economic activity over short-term periods as investor psychology latches onto the belief “this time is different.” 

Unfortunately, it never is.

While not as precise, a correlation between economic activity and the rise and fall of equity prices does remain. In 2000, and again in 2008, as economic growth declined, corporate earnings contracted by 54% and 88%, respectively. Such was despite calls of never-ending earnings growth before both previous contractions.

As earnings disappointed, stock prices adjusted by nearly 50% to realign valuations with both weaker earnings and slower earnings growth. While the stock market is again detached from reality, looking at past earnings contractions, suggests it won’t be the case for long.

The relationship becomes more evident when looking at the annual change in stock prices relative to the yearly GDP change.

Again, since the “psychology” of market participants drives prices, there can be periods where markets become detached from fundamentals. However, there is no point in previous history, where the fundamentals catch up with stock prices.

The Future Of Low(er) Returns

It is critical to remember the stock market is NOT the economy. The stock market should be reflective of underlying economic growth, which drives actual revenue growth. However, when investors pay more than $1 for a $1 worth of profits, there is an eventual reversal of those excesses.

The correlation is more evident when looking at the market versus the ratio of corporate profits to GDP. Again, since corporate profits are ultimately a function of economic growth, the correlation is not unexpected.  Hence, neither should the impending reversion in both series.

To this point, it has seemed to be a simple formula that as long as the Fed remains active in supporting asset prices, the deviation between fundamentals and fantasy doesn’t matter. It has been a hard point to argue.

However, what has started, and has yet to complete, is the historical “mean reversion” process which has always followed bull markets. Such should not be a surprise to anyone, as asset prices eventually reflect the underlying reality of corporate profitability.

Valuations

Equity valuations are higher than average by many measures, as shown in the table. Currently, the median is in the 88th percentile, and rate measures are in the 81st percentile. Only multiples from the 2000 and 2008 bubble periods were comparable to today.

Jill Mislinki, via Advisor Perspectives, also produced a similar chart of valuation measures, which shows the same thing in graphical form. The chart below shows two valuation ratios (P/E and Q) adjusted to their geometric mean rather than their arithmetic mean. Unsurprisingly, the range of overvaluation would be from 88% to 157%, up from last month’s 77% to 141%.

Suggesting that equities are at lofty valuations and prices is not an overstatement. Historically speaking, future returns from such valuations have been low and in line with slower economic growth. While in the short-term prices can certainly deviate from valuations and economic growth, as shown, they tend not to stay that way.

By nearly any metric, stocks are extremely expensive. There are limits to pulling forward “future growth.”

Summary

This article provides more supporting evidence that the odds are stacked against equity investors. That does not mean the market cannot go higher and exhibit even greater speculative fervor.

However, as fiduciaries, we must consider the long-term benefit of limiting drawdowns, especially when there is historical reason to believe they could be extreme. While it is not easy going against popular wisdom, we recommend exercising prudence and taking some chips off the table as we did this past week.

Besides, if you take profits, and rebalance risk, what is the worst that could happen?

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/3fNP8kt Tyler Durden

UK To Suspend HK Extradition Treaty As Beijing Warns “Don’t Dance To The Tune Of The Americans”

UK To Suspend HK Extradition Treaty As Beijing Warns “Don’t Dance To The Tune Of The Americans”

Tyler Durden

Mon, 07/20/2020 – 09:59

A day after China’s ambassador to the UK Liu Xiaoming warned Britain during a testy BBC interview that it must not “dance to the tune of the Americans,” London is said to be ready to move on suspending the UK’s own extradition treaty with Hong Kong, following Canada and Australia making the same move.

Hong Kong protest, file image: Reuters

As we detailed Sunday when Ambassador Liu was confronted with shocking video which appeared to show severe human rights violations targeting the minority Muslim Uighur population, the Chinese diplomat lashed out against talk of Britain taking measures which echo the Trump administration. “You have seen what happened between China and the United States,” he told the BBC. “They sanctioned Chinese officials; we sanctioned their senators, their officials. I do not want to see this tit-for-tat between China-U.S. happen in China-U.K. relations.”

“I think the U.K. should have its own independent foreign policy rather than dance to the tune of the Americans, like what happened to Huawei,” he said in the tense, confrontational interview during the Andrew Marr Show. And Bloomberg now reports following this exchange:

The next act is playing out Monday when Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab addresses Parliament. The top diplomat has dropped a heavy hint the U.K. will suspend its extradition treaty with Hong Kong, a former colony it handed back to China in 1997. Prime Minister Boris Johnson also weighed in on Monday ahead of Raab’s statement.

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2ZL4Bwg Tyler Durden

Saudi Stocks Slump After King Salman Admitted To Hospital

Saudi Stocks Slump After King Salman Admitted To Hospital

Tyler Durden

Mon, 07/20/2020 – 09:50

The Saudi Arabian stock market slumped in early trading on Monday following the news King Salman bin Abdulaziz had been admitted to the hospital, reported Reuters

State news agency SPA reported the king is suffering from inflammation of the gallbladder, was checked into a hospital in the capital Riyadh. The news sent the Saudi Stock Exchange Tadawul down 62bps to close at 7,377.36. 

Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud said a meeting with Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi had been canceled due to the king’s hospitalization.

“In recognition of the importance of the visit and keenness to make it a success, our wise leadership in coordination with our brothers in Iraq decided to postpone the visit until after King Salman leaves the hospital,” bin Farhan tweeted.

The de facto ruler and next to the throne is the king’s son, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS). 

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2Cu6q7S Tyler Durden

Oxford-AstraZeneca COVID-19 Vaccine Trials Show “No Adverse Effects”: Live Updates

Oxford-AstraZeneca COVID-19 Vaccine Trials Show “No Adverse Effects”: Live Updates

Tyler Durden

Mon, 07/20/2020 – 09:36

Update (0935ET): A coronavirus vaccine candidate developed by Oxford and AstraZeneca has shown promise in an early trial which found it to be safe for human consumption while reliably producing antibodies that are effective at stopping the virus.

In what looked like a coordinated one-two punch, one of the top researchers leading the Oxford-Astrazeneca trials said in an interview published Monday morning that the research was making “good progress”. Minutes later, the Lancet published the first Phase 1/2 trial results, which showed that the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine caused “robust immune responses” and was “tolerated” by all study subjects.

That interview was published Monday morning in the US, just minutes before the Lancet released the results of a Phase 1/2 study of the Oxford-AZ vaccine, the most highly anticipated COVID-19 news of the day.

There are currently more than 137 vaccine candidates undergoing preclinical development, and 23 in early clinical development, according to WHO. Of these, candidates from Moderna and the Oxford-AstraZeneca partnership are two of the most closely followed prototypes. Governments have already started ordering the vaccine from Moderna, even though approval is still months, perhaps years, away.

According to the Lancet, research has shown that vaccine candidates from Cansino and Astra-Oxford trial have been making good progress, and while they couldn’t say much conclusively, the Astra-Oxford trial showed no worrisome “adverse effects”.

The Phase 1/2 trial, one of the first human studies of the vaccine, showed an appropriate “immune response”. Patients who received 2 doses instead of one saw a stronger response. All patients who received the vaccine generated the desired immune response.

Oxford’s candidate “showed an acceptable safety profile, and homologous boosting increased antibody responses. These results “support large scale evaluation of this candidate vaccine in an ongoing phase 3 program.” The Oxford-AZ study included 1,077 participants spread across 5 test sites in and around the UK.

By comparison, Moderna has released press releases touting findings from studies with fewer than 100 patients. The fact that 8 patients developed neutralizing antibodies in a study that involved dozens of additional subjects was apparently news enough for Moderna, which released a market-pumping press release on those findings a few weeks back.

In the study, researchers measured the number of antibodies, and the strength of the immune response, after administering single doses and double doses of the vaccine to various groups of study subjects, and compared those results with a control group who received another vaccine. Pain and swelling caused by the injection were easily treated with paracetemol.

There were no serious adverse events related to ChAdOx1 nCoV-19. In the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 group, spike-specific T-cell responses peaked on day 14 (median 856 spot-forming cells per million peripheral blood mononuclear cells, IQR 493–1802; n=43). Anti-spike IgG responses rose by day 28 (median 157 ELISA units [EU], 96–317; n=127), and were boosted following a second dose (639 EU, 360–792; n=10). Neutralising antibody responses against SARS-CoV-2 were detected in 32 (91%) of 35 participants after a single dose when measured in MNA80 and in 35 (100%) participants when measured in PRNT50. After a booster dose, all participants had neutralising activity (nine of nine in MNA80 at day 42 and ten of ten in Marburg VN on day 56). Neutralising antibody responses correlated strongly with antibody levels measured by ELISA (R²=0·67 by Marburg VN; p<0·001).

The result: The vaccine candidate has been deemed safe enough to move on to ‘Phase 3’, which would involve large-scale human trials.

ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 showed an acceptable safety profile, and homologous boosting increased antibody responses. These results, together with the induction of both humoral and cellular immune responses, support largescale evaluation of this candidate vaccine in an ongoing phase 3 programme.

Read the full Lancet paper below:

s 0140673620316044 by Zerohedge on Scribd

* * *

Researchers working on the AstraZeneca-Oxford vaccine have reportedly told the press that the ‘Phase 1/2’ trials have made “good” progress.

“We are seeing very good immune responses, not just on neutralizing antibodies but of T-cells as well,” said Adrian Hill, head of Oxford’s Jenner Institute, in an interview. “We’re stimulating both arms of the immune system.”

The news sent AstraZeneca shares surging higher, along with the broader market, as investors await the release of more results from early stage vaccine trials.

AstraZeneca shares surged 9% on the news before fading into the red.

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2OFOMRd Tyler Durden

Feds Send Outside Agitators To Escalate Conflict in Portland

sipaphotosten921157

Clampdown in the Northwest. In Oregon this past weekend, federal agents fired tear gas into a group of moms, including one pregnant woman, who were peacefully gathering to demand police reform. They also pummeled the Portland crowd with pepper bombs, according to those on the scene and a plethora of video.

Department of Homeland Security (DHS) agents and U.S. marshals dressed in military gear and brandishing large weapons have been stationed in Portland since around the start of the month, per an executive order from President Donald Trump. The feds are allegedly there to protect national monuments and guard against potential domestic terrorism.

Instead, this deliberately intimidating gaggle of outside “law enforcement” officers has been agitating peacefully assembled people who are merely exercising their constitutional rights. This has included shooting one man directly in the head with an impact munition of some sort (sending him to the hospital and necessitating facial reconstruction surgery) and, reportedly, forcing protesters into unmarked vans.

According to an internal Homeland Security memo, “federal agents facing backlash for their militarized approach to Portland were not specifically trained in riot control or mass demonstrations,” The New York Times reports.

That doesn’t bode well for the idea that they were sent in with mitigation in mind.

Despite federal agent actions last week, large Portland protests continued over the weekend…

…and so did federal agents acting in unnecessarily hostile and abusive ways:

Portland Mayor Ted Wheeler told CNN on Sunday that “they’re not wanted here, we haven’t asked them here, in fact we want them to leave.” He continued:

What I want to do is raise awareness nationally. This could happen in your city. And what we’re seeing is a blatant abuse of police tactics by the federal government, by a Trump admin that’s falling in the polls. This is a direct threat to our democracy.

Oregon Gov. Kate Brown has suggested the feds’ presence was a “deliberate effort to provoke.” She told The Washington Post “that her contacts with Trump administration officials about the situation had convinced her that ‘they are not interested in problem solving,’ and this has ‘nothing to do with public safety.'”

The American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU) last week sought a temporary restraining order against federal agents stationed in Portland. (Read the ACLU motion here.)

And Oregon’s Department of Justice is suing the DHS, the U.S. Marshals Service, U.S. Customs and Border Protection, and the Federal Protection Service. The lawsuit, filed in federal court on Saturday, alleges that “they seized and detained Oregonians without probable cause,” explains Oregon Attorney General Ellen Rosenblum.

Oregon Sens. Ron Wyden and Jeff Merkley say they’ll be introducing legislation to address the situation. “When I get back to DC next week, I will be introducing an amendment to the defense bill with @RonWyden to stop the Trump administration from sending its paramilitary squads onto America’s streets,” tweeted Merkley on Saturday. “We won’t let these authoritarian tactics stand.”

It’s nice to see some lawmakers actually attempting to use their power to stop this, instead of simply trying to score Twitter points with spurious allegations that libertarians aren’t freaking out enough.


FREE MINDS

A British woman who was given hormone blockers as a teenager is suing the U.K.’s National Health Service. “Keira Bell said the care she received for gender dysphoria, a condition where a person experiences distress due to a mismatch between their biological sex and their gender identity, steered her towards medical treatment,” reports Sky News:

Ms Bell, who used to identify as a boy, was 15 when she went to the Tavistock Centre in London. She said after “roughly three sessions” she started receiving hormone blockers.

Eight years later, and after undergoing surgery, Ms Bell is de-transitioning to return to a woman.

Ms Bell wants clinicians to do more to explore the reasons a young person changes gender before they are treated. She believes that during treatment, priority needs to be given to a person’s “biological sex as much as their gender identity”.


FREE MARKETS

Immigration restrictions kill U.S. jobs: 


QUICK HITS

• Some potentially good news on the COVID-19 front…

• …and more bad news: “A rare but serious and potentially deadly inflammatory syndrome believed to be associated with the coronavirus has now been identified in 15 children in Los Angeles County,” the Los Angeles Times reports.

• “CEOs have often been ahead of cops and politicians on gay rights”: Richard Morrison reviews the book The Queering of Corporate America.

from Latest – Reason.com https://ift.tt/2BexfMD
via IFTTT

Feds Send Outside Agitators To Escalate Conflict in Portland

sipaphotosten921157

Clampdown in the Northwest. In Oregon this past weekend, federal agents fired tear gas into a group of moms, including one pregnant woman, who were peacefully gathering to demand police reform. They also pummeled the Portland crowd with pepper bombs, according to those on the scene and a plethora of video.

Department of Homeland Security (DHS) agents and U.S. marshals dressed in military gear and brandishing large weapons have been stationed in Portland since around the start of the month, per an executive order from President Donald Trump. The feds are allegedly there to protect national monuments and guard against potential domestic terrorism.

Instead, this deliberately intimidating gaggle of outside “law enforcement” officers has been agitating peacefully assembled people who are merely exercising their constitutional rights. This has included shooting one man directly in the head with an impact munition of some sort (sending him to the hospital and necessitating facial reconstruction surgery) and, reportedly, forcing protesters into unmarked vans.

According to an internal Homeland Security memo, “federal agents facing backlash for their militarized approach to Portland were not specifically trained in riot control or mass demonstrations,” The New York Times reports.

That doesn’t bode well for the idea that they were sent in with mitigation in mind.

Despite federal agent actions last week, large Portland protests continued over the weekend…

…and so did federal agents acting in unnecessarily hostile and abusive ways:

Portland Mayor Ted Wheeler told CNN on Sunday that “they’re not wanted here, we haven’t asked them here, in fact we want them to leave.” He continued:

What I want to do is raise awareness nationally. This could happen in your city. And what we’re seeing is a blatant abuse of police tactics by the federal government, by a Trump admin that’s falling in the polls. This is a direct threat to our democracy.

Oregon Gov. Kate Brown has suggested the feds’ presence was a “deliberate effort to provoke.” She told The Washington Post “that her contacts with Trump administration officials about the situation had convinced her that ‘they are not interested in problem solving,’ and this has ‘nothing to do with public safety.'”

The American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU) last week sought a temporary restraining order against federal agents stationed in Portland. (Read the ACLU motion here.)

And Oregon’s Department of Justice is suing the DHS, the U.S. Marshals Service, U.S. Customs and Border Protection, and the Federal Protection Service. The lawsuit, filed in federal court on Saturday, alleges that “they seized and detained Oregonians without probable cause,” explains Oregon Attorney General Ellen Rosenblum.

Oregon Sens. Ron Wyden and Jeff Merkley say they’ll be introducing legislation to address the situation. “When I get back to DC next week, I will be introducing an amendment to the defense bill with @RonWyden to stop the Trump administration from sending its paramilitary squads onto America’s streets,” tweeted Merkley on Saturday. “We won’t let these authoritarian tactics stand.”

It’s nice to see some lawmakers actually attempting to use their power to stop this, instead of simply trying to score Twitter points with spurious allegations that libertarians aren’t freaking out enough.


FREE MINDS

A British woman who was given hormone blockers as a teenager is suing the U.K.’s National Health Service. “Keira Bell said the care she received for gender dysphoria, a condition where a person experiences distress due to a mismatch between their biological sex and their gender identity, steered her towards medical treatment,” reports Sky News:

Ms Bell, who used to identify as a boy, was 15 when she went to the Tavistock Centre in London. She said after “roughly three sessions” she started receiving hormone blockers.

Eight years later, and after undergoing surgery, Ms Bell is de-transitioning to return to a woman.

Ms Bell wants clinicians to do more to explore the reasons a young person changes gender before they are treated. She believes that during treatment, priority needs to be given to a person’s “biological sex as much as their gender identity”.


FREE MARKETS

Immigration restrictions kill U.S. jobs: 


QUICK HITS

• Some potentially good news on the COVID-19 front…

• …and more bad news: “A rare but serious and potentially deadly inflammatory syndrome believed to be associated with the coronavirus has now been identified in 15 children in Los Angeles County,” the Los Angeles Times reports.

• “CEOs have often been ahead of cops and politicians on gay rights”: Richard Morrison reviews the book The Queering of Corporate America.

from Latest – Reason.com https://ift.tt/2BexfMD
via IFTTT