Isaiah Elliott, a 12-year-old boy who lives in Colorado Springs, Colorado, is fond of his neon green Nerf gun—which has the words “ZOMBIE HUNTER” written on it.
Last week, during a virtual classroom session, Elliott briefly picked up his toy gun, causing it to appear on screen for just a few seconds. This was noticed by his teacher, who promptly alerted the authorities. As a result, the police paid a visit to Elliott’s home and the school suspended him for five days.
The teacher was fairly certain the gun was a toy, according to local news station KDVR. But instead of checking with the parents to assuage any doubts, the school went straight to the cops.
In a statement, the district explained that all school board policies would be enforced regardless of whether “we are in-person learning or distance learning.”
“We take the safety of all our students and staff very seriously,” said the district. “Safety is always our number one priority.”
This explanation—we are just enforcing the policy equally—might make make more sense if the policy itself was logical, but deploying the police to deal with a nerf gun would have been ridiculous even if the incident took place in a physical classroom. The fact that the other students were, in this case, even further removed from the nonexistent danger just makes the situation even more ridiculous.
“For them to go as extreme as suspending him for five days, sending the police out, having the police threaten to press charges against him because they want to compare the virtual environment to the actual in-school environment is insane,” said Dani Elliott, the boy’s mother.
Another kid, an 11-year-old whose airsoft gun briefly appeared on screen during a Zoom class, was similarly suspended. There are many reasons to oppose virtual learning as the new default for American public K-12 education: Perhaps most importantly, it neglects school’s vital role as a form of daycare. But the opportunity for the state to invite itself into the home and make trouble for hard-working parents and innocent children is also a serious concern.
There’s one more wrinkle here: Unbeknownst to parents, Elliott’s school had been recording the Zoom session. The school did say it would abandon this practice, though it makes little difference to Elliott’s parents: They wisely decided to transfer him to a private or charter school.
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A video out of Portland shows a black woman involved in a confrontation with Antifa rioters who she accuses of calling her racial slurs as they temporarily block her vehicle.
The clip begins with the African-American woman telling the white Antifa rioters to get out of the way as they claim they are engaged in a “non-violent protest.”
“You setting fires in the street, no that’s violence,” responds the woman.
The rioters position themselves in front of her car as she tells them to go and “tear up” another neighborhood.
“Now they see how ignorant this looks, you don’t let someone call me a fucking nigger bitch, you don’t want no race war out here…fucking nigger bitch, that’s what you called me,” says the woman.
“You’re setting fires in the streets?” asks a black female driver tonight who is stopped by antifa rioters in north Portland. “Get out of my way!” She refuses to follow their orders. Video by @BGOnTheScene. #PortlandRiotspic.twitter.com/pd3cSN0Ikx
The Antifa rioters deny being responsible for the racist slur before accusing the woman of pushing them with her car.
“If I was pushing you with my car, you’d be laying the fuck over,” responds the woman as the confrontation becomes more heated.
The rioters are finally forced to let the woman pass. One suspects that if she was white, they would have physically attacked her.
“What’s it called when a bunch of masked white people with a history of violence looting and burning black communities block a black woman from driving while calling her racial slurs?” asked journalist Tim Pool.
The video emerged after yet another weekend of terrible optics for Antifa and BLM which included them once again aggressively confronting diners outside restaurants in Rochester and Pittsburgh.
* * *
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via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/339qXYL Tyler Durden
Roid Rage: Gym Owners In San Fran Furious After Learning Government Gyms Have Been Open For Months Tyler Durden
Mon, 09/07/2020 – 13:35
Shut down gym owners in San Francisco have developed serious “roid rage” after finding out this week that gyms inside of government buildings have been open for months while privately owned establishments have remained shut down, per the government’s orders.
Gyms for police officers, lawyers, bailiffs, paralegals and government employees have been open since July 1, according to a new report from the Washington Examiner.
Daniele Rabkin, of Crossfit Golden Gate stated: “It’s shocking, it’s infuriating. Even though they’re getting exposed, there are no repercussions, no ramifications? It’s shocking.”
Dave Karraker, owner of MX3 Fitness in the Castro, commented: “It just demonstrates that there seems to be some kind of a double standard between what city employees are allowed to do and what the residents of San Francisco are allowed to do. What the city has unwillingly done is created this great case study that says that working out indoors is actually safe.”
He continued: “So, at this point, we’re just demanding that they allow us to have the same workout privileges for the citizens of San Francisco that the employees of San Francisco have.”
This news comes just days after Nancy Pelosi was publicly ridiculed for getting her hair done, without a mask, at a salon that would otherwise have been closed. Public outrage about the hypocrisy reached peak levels, forcing Pelosi to make a public statement and face the media to “explain.”
Pelosi began in typical politician manner by blaming someone else – the salon owner – for the so-called “set-up” and then “apologized” for being caught in a set-up…
“I take responsibility for trusting the word of a neighborhood salon that I’ve been to over the years many times,” Pelosi told reporters on Wednesday.
“When they said they were able to accommodate people one person at a time, I trusted that. As it turns out, it was a setup.”
via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2DCU2Db Tyler Durden
Rabo: While Everyone Is Handing Out Stimulus To Prop Up Demand; China Has Been Propping Up Supply Tyler Durden
Mon, 09/07/2020 – 13:10
By Michael Every of Rabobank
So Long, and Thanks For All the Fish
In a crowded field of political and geopolitical head-scratching moments, and on a glide path to goodness knows where, the UK is doing its best to make sure it stays competitive. No, not the ‘PM’s special advisor deciding to drive to a castle with his family under lockdown to test his eyesight’. Nor the Sky TV interview where the anchor asks Health Secretary Matt Hancock why the government had just appointed ex-Australian PM Tony Abbot as its trade ambassador given “he’s a homophobe and he’s a misogynist,” and Hancock –wearing an LGBTQ rainbow flag pin—replies: “Well, ah, he’s also an expert on trade.” Both are on the list though: who needs to watch political black comedy ‘In the Thick of It’?
Specifically, the British have laid down a 15 October hard deadline to agree a new deal with the EU; and yet this week the government is set to introduce legislation that will unilaterally break the terms of the current Withdrawal Agreement over state aid and Northern Ireland That, while calling No Deal still a “good outcome”. Hard ball it is then.
Indeed, while the EU has taken a very tough approach of its own (e.g., the UK must keep aligning itself with EU regulations, or the EU get a say in them; and if the UK insists on keeping all its own fish then the EU won’t buy them), the UK is also upping the ante. The Daily Express —where one goes to drink deep of Brexit thinking once considered unthinkable yet now as common as H20— reports the UK is considering punishing the EU for no deal by refusing to allow EU corporations to raise funds in The City; which is what will happen in a No Deal anyway.
An opinion poll over the weekend shows 50% of Brits asked believe all those fish (which they don’t really eat) and the setting of their own laws (which nobody really follows) are red lines that they will not be willing to compromise over: that matters, politically, even with an election years away. Indeed, UK Brexit Negotiator Frost has stated that this week is crucial to determining if a deal can be struck at all; yet the Express states preparation for a no deal has been ramped up with the “brightest and best” civil servants brought into a new Transition Hub. Indeed, they quote a senior Downing Street source that the UK has been “resigned to Australia rules for some time” as the probable outcome. Suddenly one starts to see where Tony Abbot’s expertise may come in: presumably he’s still in Oz, and knows all the right people in all the right pubs that the Brits will need to buy all the right drinks for in order to try to shift UK trade back towards Oz again, effectively doing an ‘inverse 1973’. Which is also handy for an Australia looking to diversify from China, of course.
Regardless, it’s not a news backdrop that suggests GBP has much further to climb near term.
And on the EUR side, the focus will obviously be on the same backdrop, one would think, and also the ECB on Thursday. There, the expectation is that nothing will happen but it will be wrapped up in just the right amount of hints of something that the incessant and unwarranted, and unwanted, appreciation of EUR will cease. Of course, this depends on the verbal finesse of Christine Lagarde. One might want to have a stiff drink at hand this week for another reason then.
But back to trade diversification. The last few days have seen significant signs that Europe might be ‘getting it’ in regards to the new global geopolitical landscape. Both a German government report and the EU’s Borrell have made clear they do not want to be forced to side with either the US or China in the event of a decoupling, and that they need to rapidly diversify trade relations to ensure they have the luxury of choice. That’s also negative for EUR, as transitions are painful. First on the export side, and second if it means less Chinese investment going forwards.
Meanwhile, even the Nordstream 2 gas pipeline, on which Germany has staked its energy future, is now being floated as something that can be simply frozen at the very last minute – which would at least avoid a row with the US ahead. The message again, however, is that the EU has made some exceptionally poor geostrategic choices –by refusing to recognize it needs to think geostrategically– and rectifying them is going to be expensive, slow, and not good for EUR. By all means, allow the market to think that the ECB this week is really the driver, but there is more going on here than just technocrat technobabble.
Yet staying with trade, Chinese data today showed another surge in exports (up 9.5% y/y in USD terms) and yet imports fell again (-2.1% y/y). That’s even though China’s economy is apparently back and nobody else’s is. Yet of course that’s not true: everyone else has been handing out stimulus to prop up demand; China has been doing it to prop up supply. And here we see why such stimulus won’t look like that going forwards without being ring-fenced.
Also worth noting is that even with imports down y/y, China is still hoovering up commodities, from oil to…well, fish.
Is this just because these things are now cheap? Or because there is a recognition that the current global state of affairs is going to lead towards everyone stimulating behind a protective wall, in which case history suggests it’s very useful to have stockpiled everything you might need in a pinch? Let those who ‘don’t do geopolitics’ say the former and good luck to them; and let those who do recognize the very fat tail-risks implied.
Hence “So long, and thanks for all the fish” has multiple possible interpretations. On which note, here are the lyrics to the song from the book of the same name:
“So long and thanks for all the fish; So sad that it should come to this
We tried to warn you all but oh dear!
You may not share our intellect; Which might explain your disrespect;
For all the natural wonders that grow around you
So long, so long and thanks for all the fish
The world’s about to be destroyed; There’s no point getting all annoyed
Lie back and let the planet dissolve around you
Despite those nets of tuna fleets; We thought that most of you were sweet
Especially tiny tots and your pregnant women
So long, so long, so long, so long, so long; So long, so long, so long, so long, so long
So long, so long and thanks for all the fish
If I had just one last wish; I would like a tasty fish
If we could just change one thing; We would all have learned to sing
Come one and all; Man and mammal; side by side, in life’s great gene pool.”
via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/3ile7Nz Tyler Durden
Watch Live: Trump Holds Labor Day Press Conference To Discuss Jobs, Economy Tyler Durden
Mon, 09/07/2020 – 12:55
President Trump will be giving a 1pm ET press conference on Monday to discuss jobs and the economy.
As usual, however, we expect the real fireworks to begin when journalists begin asking about a disputed report in The Atlantic that Trump called military veterans ‘losers’ for fighting in Vietnam.
Joe Biden will speak in Harrisburg, PA Monday afternoon, where he’s scheduled to meet with the head of the largest federation of US labor unions, the AFL-CIO.
Meanwhile, both Mike Pence and Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA) will spend the day campaigning in Wisconsin, with Harris meeting with union workers and black business owners in Milwaukee, and Pence slated to tour an energy facility in La Crosse, according to KRQE.
Will be having a Labor Day News Conference today at the White House, 1:00 P.M. Jobs number, and the Economic comeback, are looking GREAT. Happy Labor Day!
“Wildfire Crisis” – Record-Breaking Heat Sparks 23 Fires, Rolling Blackouts Across Golden State Tyler Durden
Mon, 09/07/2020 – 12:45
As of Monday morning on the West Coast, at least 15,000 firefighters were battling 23 wildfires raging across the Golden State, according to the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection (CalFire).
Of these, three were deemed “major blazes”, burning in Fresno, San Bernardino, and San Diego counties.
The wildfire crisis in California is worsening, fueled by a record-breaking heat wave. This comes after a dramatic rescue over the weekend of more than 200 campers trapped by flames. @Miguelnbc has more. pic.twitter.com/LZtwshhvm2
On Sunday, California Gov. Gavin Newsom declared a state of emergency in San Diego, San Bernardino, Fresno, Madera, and Mariposa countries, the worst-affected by what’s shaping up to be another brutal wildfire season, exacerbated by a shortage of prisoners to press into service fighting the blazes.
But in his speech, Newsom prattled on about “the realities of climate change”.
“California has always been the canary in the coal mine for climate change, and this weekend’s events only underscore that reality,” Newsom said. “Wildfires have caused system failures, while near-record energy demand is predicted as a multi-state heatwave hits the West Coast for the second time in a matter of weeks.”
Newsom also spoke about the record-high temperatures on Saturday, which were piling on the pressure to the state’s power grid.
“Californians are rising to the occasion to meet these unprecedented challenges for our energy grid, and I want to thank all of the businesses and individuals who are conserving energy. Californians should heed (California Independent System Operator’s) warnings and flex their power to shift energy consumption to earlier in the day.”
The heatwave added fuel to the wildfires and strained electrical grids, though rolling blackouts weren’t as massive as the ones seen in August. As of Monday morning, 50,000 homes and businesses had no power, according to Poweroutage.US.
The California Independent System Operator (CA ISO), which operates a large chunk of the state’s power grid, announced a Stage 2 Emergency on Sunday, where it took steps to ‘defend the grid, manage transmission loss and avoid outages’.
CA ISO said it “has taken all mitigating actions and is no longer able to provide its expected energy requirements. A Stage 2 warning requires ISO intervention in the market, such as ordering power plants online.”
The Stage 2 Emergency is expected to be reissued on Monday from 3 p.m. through 9 p.m. as wildfires and hot temperatures persist.
In Los Angeles County on Saturday, a record 121F was seen, beating a previous record of 119F, set in July 2006. The unprecedented heatwave has “continued creating ideal conditions for wildfires,” the National Weather Service warned over the weekend. As of Monday, 23 fires are raging across California.
The El Dorado Fire near Yucaipa began when someone lit a firework at a gender reveal party, sparked a massive fire that has burned more than 7,000 acres and was 5% contained as of Monday.
In Northern California, Creek Fire has burned tens of thousands of acres. It’s one of the major fires with zero containment. The fire surrounded a campground and destroyed building structures. Helicopters rescued more than 200 people to safety early Sunday, trapped by the blaze.
Dozens of evacuees are evacuated to safety on a Cal Guard Chinook last night after the Creek Fire in central California left them stranded. Photo courtesy California National Guard. pic.twitter.com/mi7X6wchpN
The 2020 wildfire season has been busy; nearly two million acres have been burnt since the season began, with more than 7,448 confirmed wildfires and upwards of 4,000 structures damaged or destroyed.
This comes at a precarious time for California, as budgetary constraints from the virus-induced downturn, along with the threat by President Trump to defund liberal-run cities, the state could be on the verge of disaster.
via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2GEUoub Tyler Durden
SoftBank Has Closed Most Of Its “Nasdaq Whale” Positions Tyler Durden
Mon, 09/07/2020 – 12:32
Following our Thursday report identifying SoftBank as the primary – but not only – catalyst behind the bizarre moves in high beta tech names and the broader market over the past several weeks (confirmed later by the FT and WSJ), an odyssey which we summarized in “Connecting The Dots: How SoftBank Made Billions Using The Biggest “Gamma Squeeze” In History“ with subsequent reports that SoftBank, or the “Nasdaq whale” as some now call it was sitting on “unbooked” profits of about $4 billion, the market was quick to punish SoftBank (9984.JT) which dropped on Friday then tumbled another 7% on Monday despite what the company has been proud to frequently remind its investors was the second biggest buyback authorization after Apple.
There were two reasons cited for the drop: the first was the realization that “SoftBank’s behaviour as a company increasingly resembled that of a hedge fund, populated with former investment bankers with a massive appetite for risk.” This realization was assisted by our weekend report which revealed the main players behind the Softbank trade, which was the brainchild of Abu Dhabi-based Akshay Naheta, a former Deutsche Bank prop trader who now heads SoftBank’s new asset management team which invests in public equities, including all those tech companies that have soared in August on the massive gamma melt-up facilitated by concurrent call buying as described previously.
The second reason cited by the FT for today’s tumble is that “retail investors, which make up 30 per cent of SoftBank’s shareholder registry, reacted particularly negatively to the company’s latest shift in investment strategy.”
“For institutional investors who understand how options trades work, many don’t anticipate a major impact on SoftBank’s earnings,” said Naoki Fujiwara, a fund manager at Tokyo-based Shinkin Asset Management. But he said retail investors “are worried the derivatives trades will lead to major losses again.”
Which is understandable: while it is known that SoftBank has made a roughly 100% profit generating $4 billion in profits from the purchase of $4 billion in option premium, it was generally unknown if the bank can hold on to this profit, or in other words if it can book it before dealers move the market aggressively against SoftBank, potentially leading to all gains being wiped out and/or losses. Indeed, this is what the FT reported just this morning:
While SoftBank’s huge derivatives bet on selected US stocks has worked for now, leaving the Japanese group with large, albeit as yet unrealised, profits, a continued pullback in equity markets could erode returns.
Well, it appears that in keeping with its newly-found reputation of a hedge fund, and contrary to widespread speculation that the Japanese conglomerate is still on the hook, SoftBank has already unwound a majority of its public holdings.
We know this thanks to a little-noticed conference call that took place in late August, days before we revealed SoftBank’s role in the marketwide gamma grab. The call, which took place on August 26 and was held by Morgan Stanley’s media sector specialist covering SoftBank and was first noticed by Thunderdome Capital, emphasized several things:
The company’s massive buyback: “We always said our stock was cheap, but our stock is the best thing out there right now. Biggest buyback in Japan history. Only Apple’s buyback is bigger globally.”
The continued “successful” listing of SoftBank’s private portfolio companies: “Already had 9 companies that have listed out of the Vision Fund this year. We’re starting to take smaller stakes in companies so we can sell them more quickly and increase our IRR.”
Visiong Fund’s liquidity position: “Still have $14 billion in cash in the Vision Fund, which is partially being used to pay the 7% preferred return, but also to invest more in other assets.”
But most importantly, the call touched on the biggest topic in capital market in the past week: the fate of SoftBank’s public investments, with the following striking disclosure:
“We spent $10 billion on public equities and have already sold $7 billion of them. We consider this “treasury operations” where we are buying very liquid operations to earn higher returns on our cash.”
… and specifically to the portfolio of public investments which SoftBank unveiled recently (highlighted below) and then used various option strategies to turbocharge returns during the now infamous gamma meltup.
It also means that for all intents and purposes, SoftBank is now out of most – if not all – of its public equity positions and “Nasdaq Whale” bets which were, as we reported last week, the primary catalyst for the market’s tremendous rally.
Then again, even without the benefit of this conf call, one could see that SoftBank was mostly out of its controversial public stock positions through the market’s action into Thursday and Friday, when all the beneficiaries from the gamma grab were hammered.
As we first discussed late last week, and as the BearTraps report wrote over the weekend, “the sell-off on Thursday and Friday was clearly a ‘gamma-squeeze-unwind’, in our view. Dealers had to buy tech stocks and Nasdaq futures throughout March to hedge the rising prices of call options (which they were short). Ahead of the Fed meeting, Maso Son likely took off a chunk of his long call position early Thursday we are told.”
So once the calls option prices stopped rising, market makers furiously reversed their gamma chase and had to take down their hedges, dumping significant amounts of stock they had delta-hedged as gamma was surging back into the market, and so on: “as the delta on the calls they sold came down Thursday, dealers were forced to sell stock, and reset hedges lower”
And speaking of market whales, besides SoftBank there is also the Fed to consider, and as Larry McDonalds writes, “if the Fed had the chance to let some air out of the Nasdaq bubble without disrupting financial conditions (overall cost of capital), they would do it in a second.” He then points out the chart below which shows a “highly unusual divergence” between Nasdaq vol and the broader Goldman overall financial conditions index, and which “speaks to the Nasdaq Whale’s volatility juicing influence on the Nasdaq, without leaking over to credit markets” and as a result Powell is smiling.
And yet, McDonald believes that “the Fed is getting a bit nervous about the Whale’s splash though, Nasdaq froth. The FOMC’s reticence to hint at more QE candy combined with the mentions of macroprudential financial stability and leverage – indicates they are worried” but not enough to overcome their fear of tightening financial conditions. In other words, in the Bear Traps Report’s view the Fed “would like to send a message to Masa Son. A little high heat is in order, “chin music” as they say in the big leagues, as long as they do not push FCIs tighter (financial conditions).”
Whether the Fed will teach Masa Son a lesson is unclear, but what is certain is that SoftBank is now clearly out of the picture when it comes to fmenting a gamma melt up. In fact, one can virtually assure that any further attempts to prompt a marketide gamma squeeze will be summarily punished by dealers who are now left with excess high beta stocks which they loaded up on amid the delta-hedging frenzy and now have to dump. In short, the path of least resistance in the coming day is down, not up.
While institutional investors will take this in stride, this will be a major problem for retail daytraders who since March have enjoyed a tremendous ascent in stocks and may be about to see their major test of their convictions (something bitcoin weak hands clearly failed over the weekend as the cryptocurrency space simply imploded).
Meanwhile, with elections looming, further risk-on will demand more QE, and will threaten the Fed’s credibility unless it gets it. Unless, of course, as McDonald concludes the Fed wants banks to retain capital and fudging some level of credibility gives banks a steepener (yield curve) to play with.
Finally, recall that it was last August when former NY president Bill Dudley wrote an Op-Ed urging the Fed to crash the market to prevent another Trump re-election. Well, if his message resonated with the FOMC, what better time to unveil a hawkish shock than at the Sept FOMC meeting in 9 days – the last one before the presidential election. Because if there is one thing that – in Dudley’s and Trump’s view – could cripple his re-election chances, it is a market crash just weeks before Nov 3.
via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/35jZN4d Tyler Durden
Bitcoin (BTC) continues to test $10,000 support after a weekend in which it consolidated after a major drop — what next?
Cointelegraph takes a look at the major factors set to influence BTC price action in the coming week.
Keiser: U.S. currency index needs to drop below 80
The end of last week saw big changes for BTC/USD, with the pair shedding over 15% from $12,050 to bounce at $9,900.
The weekend failed to trigger a significant bounce, with $9,900 seeing several more tests before Bitcoin drifted back into five figures.
What changed on Friday was one macro factor — the U.S. dollar currency index (DXY), which began rising after hitting two-year lows.
DXY measures USD against a basket of U.S. trading partner currencies. A week previously, an inflation announcement from the Federal Reserve had a bearish impact on the index, but last week saw a reversal in its fortunes — at the expense of safe havens.
At publication time on Sep. 7, DXY was at 92.95, having risen as high as 93.25 over the weekend. For RT host Max Keiser, fresh losses need to appear for Bitcoin to gain — the inverse correlation between the cryptocurrency and DXY should continue.
“We need the DXY to drop through 80 to get the real fireworks going in #Bitcoin and Gold,” he tweeted.
Keiser added that developments in the ongoing Brexit saga could also prove a positive influence for BTC next month. Should the European Union adopt a hardline stance with the United Kingdom, the euro could benefit and pressure DXY.
“Hopefully the EU cuts (the U.K.) off in October, freeing the Euro to trade higher. This will help Bitcoin a lot,” he wrote.
U.S. dollar currency index 5-day chart. Source: TradingView
Crunch time for policy in Europe
On the topic of geopolitics, multiple events this week may serve to steer markets, with Bitcoin reacting in step.
In addition to preparations for Brexit talks failing, the EU will eye economic policy as the European Central Bank (ECB) meets to discuss its options.
As Cointelegraph noted, deflation has returned to the ECB’s sphere of influence for the first time since 2016. Now, the focus will turn to whether copying the U.S. approach is suitable for the eurozone.
As Bloomberg reported on Monday, the overall global recovery from the March coronavirus crash, once robust, is now fizzling.
“High-frequency data paints a picture of a rapid rebound in the second quarter, and a stall – with activity still well short of pre-virus levels – in the third,” the publication’s chief economist, Tom Orlik, commented.
To return to “pre-virus normality,” he added, all that would work is a coronavirus vaccine.
CME gap opens at $10,600
This weekend delivered on a classic Bitcoin price trigger which could see short-term upside reenter the picture.
On Friday, CME Group’s Bitcoin futures closed trading at $10,615 but reopened again at $10,430.
The resulting “gap” in the market provides likely room for an uptick from current levels of $10,100 — if Bitcoin follows historical behavioral patterns, the void should not last long.
The original dip below $10,000 gave rise to hopes that the only gap disobeying the rule — at $9,700 — would get filled. For Cointelegraph Markets analyst Michaël van de Poppe, $10,000 must disintegrate to make that possible.
“Holding $10,000 should warrant a short-term relief bounce towards the $10,800-10,900 area,” he told Twitter followers on Sunday.
“Breaking $10,000 and the market goes for the CME gap in one-go and we’ll see mid $9K’s.”
CME Bitcoin futures chart showing the latest gap.
Fundamentals see only a modest fall
Bitcoin’s network fundamentals look set to take a break this week as miners take stock of the price declines.
According to data from on-chain monitoring resources BTC.com and Blockchain, difficulty and hash rate are set to come off near all-time highs.
The next automatic difficulty adjustment will occur on Monday and will see a negative move of an estimated 1.7%. The difficulty is currently at its highest ever, underscoring the overall competitiveness of the Bitcoin network.
The hash rate, meanwhile, saw its absolute peak in mid-August but has since dropped only negligibly — currently at around 122 exahashes per second (EH/s).
Hash rate gives a rough estimate of the computing power dedicated to validating the Bitcoin blockchain, with downward price pressure tending to disrupt some less profitable miners.
On Thursday, a day before the $9,900 dip, Cointelegraph reported on outflows from some major mining pools spiking — BTC was heading to exchanges while the spot price was around $11,500 after a rejection of $12,000 support.
Bitcoin 7-day average hash rate 1-month chart. Source: Blockchain
Sentiment turns from greed to fear
In a telling consequence of price action, cryptocurrency market sentiment has dropped to its most “fearful” in almost two months.
According to the latest data from the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, investors have completely changed their outlook versus just one week ago.
The Index takes multiple factors into account to compile a normalized reading of how much fear or greed is circulating from market participants at a given time. The higher the reading, the more likely the market is due for a correction.
As Cointelegraph reported, much of August saw the index linger near its all-time highs of 85/100, known as “extreme greed.” Before the run to $12,000, however, the number was closer to 40, or “fear.”
Friday saw another shake-up, with “greed” abruptly disappearing to be replaced once again by “fear” with the index measuring 41/100, the lowest levels since July.
Crypto Fear & Greed Index 3-month chart. Source: Alternative.me
via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/3lVgHfc Tyler Durden
The Republican National Convention last month highlighted Donald Trump’s support for the FIRST STEP Act, a 2018 law that Ivanka Trump, the president’s daughter, called “the most significant criminal justice reform of our generation.” A new report from the U.S. Sentencing Commission (USSC) describes what that reform has accomplished so far: During the first full calendar year in which the law applied, it resulted in shorter sentences for more than 4,000 drug offenders. While that is nothing to sneeze at, it is a modest accomplishment in the context of a federal prison system that keeps more than 150,000 Americans, including more than 68,000 drug offenders, behind bars.
The FIRST STEP Act sentencing reform with the biggest impact in 2019, measured by the number of people affected, was retroactive application of the lighter crack cocaine penalties that Congress approved in 2010. Congress raised the mandatory-minimum weight thresholds, moving them closer to the thresholds for cocaine powder while maintaining a still irrational and unjust 18-to-1 ratio (down from 100 to 1). In 2019, the USSC report says, 2,387 already imprisoned crack offenders qualified for shorter sentences under the FIRST STEP Act’s retroactivity provision. The average reduction was 71 months, making the average sentence for this group 187 months (more than 15 years), down from 258 months (more than 21 years).
The second most significant FIRST STEP Act sentencing reform in 2019 (again, measured by the number of people affected), was its widening of the “safety valve” that allows low-level, nonviolent drug offenders to avoid mandatory minimums they otherwise would receive. The USSC reports that 1,369 defendants benefited from that expansion in 2019. The average sentence for that group was 53 months (more than four years), compared to 36 months (three years) for defendants who already were eligible for the safety valve. The average sentence for federal defendants who receive mandatory minimums, based on data for fiscal year 2016, is 138 months, or more than 11 years.
Two other FIRST STEP Act sentencing provisions had a much smaller impact. The law narrowed the criteria for the enhanced penalties that apply to repeat drug offenders, which reduced the number of defendants eligible for those sentences. The enhanced penalties applied to 849 drug offenders in 2019, 152 fewer than in fiscal year 2018. The FIRST STEP Act also reduced the enhanced penalties, from 20 to 15 years for defendants with one prior conviction and from life to 25 years for defendants with two prior convictions. In 2019, the USSC says, 219 drug offenders benefited from the first reduction, while 21 benefited from the second reduction.
Even rarer were situations where defendants received shorter sentences because of the FIRST STEP Act’s changes to a law that imposes escalating mandatory minimums on drug offenders who have firearms. The USSC says 205 defendants benefited from that provision in 2019, receiving sentences of five, seven, or 10 years rather than the 25-year sentence that previously would have applied.
The FIRST STEP Act was supposed to facilitate compassionate release of elderly or ailing prisoners. In 2019, 145 prisoners were granted compassionate release, five times the number in fiscal year 2018.
The law also expanded the “good time” credits that allow prisoners to be released early. Although the USSC report does not analyze the impact of that provision, the Justice Department reported last year that more than 3,100 prisoners had benefited from it.
By the end of last year, then, more than 7,000 people either had been released from prison earlier than they otherwise would have been or were serving sentences that will end sooner than would have been the case before the FIRST STEP Act took effect. That is a meaningful accomplishment. Thousands of people will spend less time behind bars, and more time with their families, friends, and neighbors, thanks to this law, and that number will rise each year.
At the same time, the law’s beneficiaries at this point represent less than 5 percent of the federal prison population, less than 11 percent of drug offenders in federal prison, and less than 10 percent of federal criminal cases each year. And while a crack offender who serves 15 years rather than 21 years in prison surely is better off, the reduced penalty is still draconian, especially if you think peaceful transactions involving arbitrarily proscribed intoxicants should not be treated as crimes to begin with.
Even leaving aside the moral bankruptcy of drug prohibition, the FIRST STEP Act fell far short of reforms that have gained bipartisan support in Congress. In addition to making shorter crack sentences retroactive and widening the safety valve, the Smarter Sentencing Act, which was introduced by Sens. Richard Durbin (D-Ill.) and Mike Lee (R-Utah) in 2014, would have cut mandatory minimums for drug offenses in half. That bill passed the Senate Judiciary Committee with the support of three Republicans and 10 Democrats. The Justice Safety Valve Act, which Sens. Rand Paul (R–Ky.) and Pat Leahy (D–Vt.) introduced around the same time, would have gone further, making mandatory minimums effectively optional by allowing judges to depart from them in the interest of justice. Joe Biden, Trump’s Democratic opponent in this fall’s presidential election, likewise favors abolishing mandatory minimums, along with the distinction between the smoked and snorted forms of cocaine (both of which he supported as a senator).
As its name indicates, the FIRST STEP Act was not meant to be the last word on criminal justice reform. “We’re just getting started,” Ivanka Trump promised at the Republican convention. Now is the time to spell out what that means.
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The Republican National Convention last month highlighted Donald Trump’s support for the FIRST STEP Act, a 2018 law that Ivanka Trump, the president’s daughter, called “the most significant criminal justice reform of our generation.” A new report from the U.S. Sentencing Commission (USSC) describes what that reform has accomplished so far: During the first full calendar year in which the law applied, it resulted in shorter sentences for more than 4,000 drug offenders. While that is nothing to sneeze at, it is a modest accomplishment in the context of a federal prison system that keeps more than 150,000 Americans, including more than 68,000 drug offenders, behind bars.
The FIRST STEP Act sentencing reform with the biggest impact in 2019, measured by the number of people affected, was retroactive application of the lighter crack cocaine penalties that Congress approved in 2010. Congress raised the mandatory-minimum weight thresholds, moving them closer to the thresholds for cocaine powder while maintaining a still irrational and unjust 18-to-1 ratio (down from 100 to 1). In 2019, the USSC report says, 2,387 already imprisoned crack offenders qualified for shorter sentences under the FIRST STEP Act’s retroactivity provision. The average reduction was 71 months, making the average sentence for this group 187 months (more than 15 years), down from 258 months (more than 21 years).
The second most significant FIRST STEP Act sentencing reform in 2019 (again, measured by the number of people affected), was its widening of the “safety valve” that allows low-level, nonviolent drug offenders to avoid mandatory minimums they otherwise would receive. The USSC reports that 1,369 defendants benefited from that expansion. The average sentence for that group was 53 months (more than four years), compared to 36 months (three years) for defendants who already were eligible for the safety valve. The average sentence for federal defendants who receive mandatory minimums, based on data for fiscal year 2016, is 138 months, or more than 11 years.
Two other FIRST STEP Act sentencing provisions had a much smaller impact. The law narrowed the criteria for the enhanced penalties that apply to repeat drug offenders, which reduced the number of defendants eligible for those sentences. The enhanced penalties applied to 849 drug offenders in 2019, 152 fewer than in fiscal year 2018. The FIRST STEP also reduced the enhanced penalties, from 20 to 15 years for defendants with one prior conviction and from life to 25 years for defendants with two prior convictions. In 2019, the USSC says, 219 drug offenders benefited from the first reduction, while 21 benefited from the second reduction.
Even rarer were situations where defendants received shorter sentences because of the FIRST STEP Act’s changes to a law that imposes escalating mandatory minimums on drug offenders who have firearms. The USSC says 205 defendants benefited from that provision in 2019, receiving sentences of five, seven, or 10 years rather than the 25-year sentence that previously would have applied.
The FIRST STEP Act was supposed to facilitate compassionate release of elderly or ailing prisoners. In 2019, 145 prisoners were granted compassionate release, five times the number in fiscal year 2018.
The law also expanded the “good time” credits that allow prisoners to be released early. Although the USSC report does not analyze the impact of that provision, the Justice Department reported last year that more than 3,100 prisoners had benefited from it.
So far, then, about 7,250 people either have been released from prison earlier than they otherwise would have been or will get out sooner than they would have before the FIRST STEP Act took effect. That is a meaningful accomplishment. Thousands of people will spend less time behind bars, and more time with their families, friends, and neighbors, thanks to this law, and that number will rise each year.
At the same time, the law’s beneficiaries at this point represent less than 5 percent of the federal prison population, less than 11 percent of drug offenders in federal prison, and less than 10 percent of federal criminal cases each year. And while a crack offender who serves 15 years rather than 21 years in prison surely is better off, the reduced penalty is still draconian, especially if you think peaceful transactions involving arbitrarily proscribed intoxicants should not be treated as crimes to begin with.
Even leaving aside the moral bankruptcy of drug prohibition, the FIRST STEP Act fell far short of reforms that have gained bipartisan support in Congress. In addition to making shorter crack sentences retroactive and widening the safety valve, the Smarter Sentencing Act, which was introduced by Sens. Richard Durbin (D-Ill.) and Mike Lee (R-Utah) in 2014, would have cut mandatory minimums for drug offenses in half. That bill passed the Senate Judiciary Committee with the support of three Republicans and 10 Democrats. The Justice Safety Valve Act, which Sens. Rand Paul (R–Ky.) and Pat Leahy (D–Vt.) introduced around the same time, would have gone further, making mandatory minimums effectively optional by allowing judges to depart from them in the interest of justice. Joe Biden, Trump’s Democratic opponent in this fall’s presidential election, likewise favors abolishing mandatory minimums as well as the distinction between the smoked and snorted forms of cocaine (both of which he supported as a senator).
As its name indicates, the FIRST STEP Act was not meant to be the last word on criminal justice reform. “We’re just getting started,” Ivanka Trump promised at the Republican convention. Now is the time to spell out what that means.
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