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Authored by James Howard Kunstler via Kunstler.com,

Speaker Nancy Pelosi has been clinging to her bill of impeachment for one reason: hoping that a judge will rule to release all the evidence and depositions collected by Robert Mueller’s investigation. What’s wrong with that? Mr. Mueller failed to find any prosecutable crimes. That was the sum and substance of his two-year-long exercise in bad faith. In which case, all that material is officially and legally evidence of nothing. Impeachment is a political act and sealed evidence of nothing can’t be released to one set of political actors in a political quarrel for use as a political weapon. More to the point – and to Mrs. Pelosi’s real motive here – the material is not for impeachment but rather to use the Mueller dossier as political opposition “research” for the coming election.

There is no question that from the start of his investigation, Special Counsel Robert Mueller knew that the case was opened under false pretenses, since his very close friend, the erstwhile FBI director James Comey, also knew by early 2017 that all the predicating material was substantially false, and that it was procured by Mrs. Clinton. To carry it beyond that was a scheme by acting FBI director Rod Rosenstein to issue a series of “scoping” letters that increasingly widened Mr. Mueller’s purview to go fishing for crimes in every area and every chronological phase of the president’s life. That smacks of what’s known in Anglo-American law as attainder by process: first declaring someone an outlaw, and only afterward seeking a crime to justify it. Under our system, first crimes are established, then persons liable for them are brought to court to answer charges.

Of course, there’s good reason to suspect that Mr. Mueller himself was a false front for the operation conducted in his name, which was really an intrigue carried out by a claque of Democratic Party Lawfare attorneys led by Andrew Weissmann, Mr. Mueller’s chief deputy. Mr. Mueller’s testimony before two House committees last July revealed a pathetic figure who was unacquainted with the most basic pieces of his own inquiry.

The case for House members to get access to all that backstage Mueller material could go up to the Supreme Court. In the meantime, Impeachment’s second act is about to get underway whether Mrs. Pelosi likes the terms or not. It’s the Senate’s prerogative to decide. These terms appear to be exactly the same as the ones used by the Senate for Bill Clinton’s impeachment trial — which means that each side chooses a team of “managers” to present its case, and then the managers are subject to grilling by senators. The House Democrats are insisting on calling witnesses solely to maintain their court claim for testimony from the White House counsel, with which the aforesaid Mueller material is associated in the case. If the rules eschew witnesses, that case is moot, and the Democrats lose access to a trove of political oppo research obtained for them under false pretenses by their own operatives in the Department of Justice.

Secondarily, the impeachment was designed to get senators in swing states on the record voting to acquit the president in the hopes that it will somehow taint their re-election prospects and possibly flip control of the Senate to the Democrats. That outcome would above all insure that Mr. Trump could not get another Supreme Court nominee confirmed in his second term, nor continue the wholesale appointment of lesser federal district judges. Plus, of course, it would obstruct any other legislative initiative his party brought for four years.

Personally, I would miss the chance to hear from the so-called “whistleblower” who instigated the impeachment phase of the long-running coup against Mr. Trump. Contrary to the disinformation put out by The New York Times and other coup co-conspirators, the “whistleblower” enjoys no right to anonymity. It would also be satisfying to hear how his enabler, Intel Community IG Michael Atkinson, might account for the process that steered the “whistleblower” to Rep. Adam Schiff and his staff — for instance, back-dating the official documents that green-lighted the “whistleblower’s” case. Mr. Atkinson is deeply implicated himself as a player in the earlier 2017 RussiaGate FISA court mischief, since his previous job was agency counsel to DOJ National Security chief John Carlin, who signed off on fraudulent FISA warrants. Mr. Atkinson must have counseled Mr. Carlin to do that. Testimony from Mr. Schiff about the “whistleblower” process would also be edifying. Senators would surely get to see Mr. Atkinson’s so-far-withheld deposition transcript from the House Intel Committee hearings of November. It might establish grounds for Mr. Schiff’s expulsion from the House of Representatives as a serial liar, a salutary measure to restore a sense of legitimacy in American affairs.

If witnesses were allowed in the Senate trial phase of impeachment, the president’s team could haul in scores of former and current government officials implicated in the seditious activities against him to testify. The nation would be well-served and enlightened. The only question is whether their testimony might queer the actual criminal cases pending against them outside the impeachment circus.

Scapegoating by the establishment (for a Dem loss) or pre-emptive actions by Trump (for a Trump victory which will be inevitably besmirched by another round of sore-losing snowflakes)?

It’s hard to know for sure but one thing is certain, it will prolong the ‘Russia, Russia, Russia’ headlines for one more news cycle.

Bloomberg reports that, according to two officials familiar with the matter, US intelligence and law enforcement have begun a probe to assess whether Russia is trying to “meddle’ in Joe Biden’s nomination (and perhaps election, as he remains the front-runner) campaign.

Part of the inquiry is reportedly to determine whether Russia is trying to weaken Biden by promoting controversy over his past involvement in U.S. policy toward Ukraine while his son worked for an energy company there.

As one anonymous official proclaimed – despite zero evidence of this actually happening other than an extremely small ad spend on Facebook? – a Kremlin strategy to undermine Biden would echo its work in 2016, when American intelligence agencies found that Russia carried out a sophisticated operation to damage Democrat Hillary Clinton and ultimately help Trump.

“In America, they’re using social media and many other tools to inflame social divisions, promote conspiracy theories and sow distrust in our democracy and elections,” William Evanina, director of the National Counterintelligence and Security Center, said in a statement.

“As we look ahead to 2020, one thing I can guarantee is they’ll keep up their influence campaigns and utilize new vectors of disinformation.”

But, as Bloomberg is quick to remind readers, Russia’s campaign interference in 2016 resulted in a multiagency investigation that led to a highly classified intelligence assessment, part of which was made public in January 2017.

Trump has questioned the finding of Russian meddling and has asserted that government agents biased against him conducted a “witch hunt” into whether his campaign conspired with Russia.

“Vladimir Putin has interfered in our elections before and it’s no surprise he’s doing so again to prop up President Trump,” said Biden campaign spokesman Andrew Bates.

“Biden is to 2020 what Clinton was to 2016,” said Clint Watts, a former FBI agent who has been tracking Russia’s foreign influence operations.

“When you watch just how they speak publicly, they’re very clear that, yes, a second term of Trump would be great.”

“Going all the way back to May they were talking about Biden-Ukraine very heavily,” he said.

“It’s a great narrative for them.”

The potential for Russia to spread falsehoods – and to develop increasingly sophisticated techniques to do so – is one of the bigger concerns that U.S. officials have as the 2020 election approaches, said John Demers, head of the Justice Department’s national security division.

One thing is notable – no one is claiming China is meddling? Yet!

After several weeks of delays, Nancy Pelosi’s gambit of withholding the articles of impeachment from the Senate appears to have backfired following intense pressure not only from Republicans – amid a series of political, economic and stock market victories by Trump who managed to put the impeachment news solidly on the back burner – but also amid a rising outcry by frustrated Democrats, and moments ago the House Speaker said the House will prepare to send articles of impeachment against President Donald Trump to the Senate next week, just one day after Mitch McConnell said he was backing a resolution to change the Senate’s rules to allow for lawmakers to dismiss the articles of impeachment against Trump before the House sends them over.

“I have asked Judiciary Committee Chairman Jerry Nadler to be prepared to bring to the floor next week a resolution to appoint managers and transmit articles of impeachment to the Senate,” Pelosi wrote in a letter to House Democrats on Friday.

“I will be consulting with you at our Tuesday House Democratic Caucus meeting on how we proceed further” she wrote further, effectively capitulating to Senate GOP leader Mitch McConnell, who has promised a speedy acquittal of Trump, and has all but told Pelosi to pound sand, saying in a Wednesday speech on the Senate floor: “There will no haggling with the House over Senate procedure,” adding “We will not cede our authority to try this impeachment.”

NEW from Speaker Pelosi: “I have asked Judiciary Committee Chairman Jerry Nadler to be prepared to bring to the Floor next week a resolution to appoint managers and transmit articles of impeachment to the Senate.”

cc: @CourthouseNews pic.twitter.com/TS4GpHuo6I

— Adam Klasfeld (@KlasfeldReports) January 10, 2020

Pelosi’s full letter is below:

Dear Democratic Colleague,

For weeks now, Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell has been engaged in tactics of delay in presenting transparency, disregard for the American people’s interest for a fair trial and dismissal of the facts.

Yesterday, he showed his true colors and made his intentions to stonewall a fair trial even clearer by signing on to a resolution that would dismiss the charges. A dismissal is a cover-up and deprives the American people of the truth. Leader McConnell’s tactics are a clear indication of the fear that he and President Trump have regarding the facts of the President’s violations for which he was impeached.

The American people have clearly expressed their view that we should have a fair trial with witnesses and documents, with more than 70 percent of the public stating that the President should allow his top aides to testify. Clearly, Leader McConnell does not want to present witnesses and documents to Senators and the American people so they can make an independent judgment about the President’s actions.

Honoring our Constitution, the House passed two articles of impeachment against the President — abuse of power and obstruction of Congress — to hold the President accountable for asking a foreign government to interfere in the 2020 elections for his own political and personal gain.

While the House was able to obtain compelling evidence of impeachable conduct, which is enough for removal, new information has emerged, which includes:

On December 20, new emails showed that 91 minutes after Trump’s phone call with Ukrainian President Zelensky, a top Office of Management and Budget (OMB) aide asked the Department of Defense to “hold off’ on sending military aid to Ukraine.

On December 29, revelations emerged about OMB Director and Acting Chief of Staff Mick Mulvaney’s role in the delay of aid, the effort by lawyers at the OMB, the Department of Justice and the White House to justify the delay, and the alarm that the delay caused within the Administration.

On January 2, newly-unredacted Pentagon emails, which we had subpoenaed and the President had blocked, raised serious concerns by Trump Administration officials about the kg, of the  President’s hold on aid to Ukraine.

And on January 6, just this week, former Trump National Security Advisor John Bolton announced he would comply with a subpoena compelling his testimony. His lawyers have stated he has new relevant information.

I am very proud of the courage and patriotism exhibited by our House Democratic Caucus as we support and defend the Constitution. I have asked Judiciary Committee Chairman Jerry Nadler to be prepared to bring to the Floor next week a resolution to appoint managers and transmit articles of impeachment to the Senate. I will be consulting with you at our Tuesday House Democratic Caucus meeting on how we proceed further.

In an impeachment trial, every Senator takes an oath to “do impartial justice according to the Constitution and laws.” Every Senator now faces a choice: to be loyal to the President or the Constitution.

No one is above the law, not even the President.

Thank you for your leadership For The People.

As was previewed by Trump two days earlier, moments ago Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo confirmed that the Trump administration is imposing new sanctions on Iran, specifically targeting the country’s metals exports and eight senior leaders. The Treasury said the actions Friday target the 13 largest steel and iron manufacturers in Iran and top copper and aluminum producers.

With the latest sanctions targeting steel, aluminum, copper and iron as well as sectors of the economy such as construction, manufacturing, textiles and mining, it now appears that virtually the entire Iranian economy is off-limits to any nation that has diplomatic ties with the US. As a reminder, Iran’s critical oil exports and shipping industries were already sanctioned in 2019, sending the economy in turmoil as most of the country’s oil exports were taken offline with only a handful of countries such as China and India still importing Iranian crude.

The economic pressure from US sanctions has already had a destabilizing effect on Iran’s economy, sending the currency tumbling and leading to sporadic anti-government protests across the nation.

In this vein, the new measures are aimed at cracking down on Iran’s few remaining sources of export revenue and squeezing the nation’s economy to force its leaders back into negotiations for a new nuclear agreement.

“We want Iran to simply behave like a normal nation,” Pompeo said during a media briefing at the White House.

The move to expand penalties on the Islamic Republic followed one day after President Trump said Iran would be sanctioned “immediately” for the airstrikes against two U.S. military installations in Iraq, which resulted in no casualties.

As Bloomberg notes, “the administration first prepared the sanctions in December, before tensions escalated between the U.S. and Iran, leading to the Jan. 2 U.S. airstrike in Baghdad that killed top Iranian general Qassem Soleimani.”

“By cutting off the economics to the regime, we are having an impact,” Mnuchin said.

Separately, Mnuchin also said that the U.S. will issue waivers on sanctions against Iran to allow investigators from the US and other countries to take part in the probe of a Ukrainian jetliner crash in Tehran earlier this week which several western nations have said was likely downed by an Iranian missile shortly after Tehran attacked US air bases in Iraq.

Reiterating that the target of US economic pressure remains Iran’s oil industry, the State and Treasury Departments issued guidance that warns ship insurers, banks, charter companies, port owners, crews and captains that they all face sanctions exposure if they can’t account for the legitimacy of the cargoes they carry. The administration is seeking to close a significant loophole that allows Iran and other nations to avoid sanctions: ship-to-ship transfers of crude oil, refined petroleum and other goods.

Ironically, the biggest client of Iranian oil exports remains China in stark violation of US sanctions, yet despite this clear snub of Washington in the international arena, US and China are expected to sign the Phase One trade deal as early as next Monday.

As for the immediate impact of the sanctions, it is debatable if they will achieve the desired concession by Rouhani to sit down on the negotiating table with Trump; instead a far more likely outcome is that after Iran’s leaders succeeded in placating the population’s thirst for retaliation and vindication after Soleimani’s assassination, which was achieved with Iran’s casualty-free attack on US airbases in Iraq, the angry Iranian population will demand another round of retaliatory escalation, made more likely by the fact that now Tehran’s cash-strapped government has even fewer sources of income, which may explain why risk assets are suddenly sinking.

Authored by Michael Every via Rabobank,

Ark B

Friday. End of the first full week of 2020. What have you missed so far if you are only going back to on Monday?

To date, you would have missed the Brexit bill finally passing in the UK – and Europe reminding the UK that they can’t have a free trade deal without being closely aligned with them on all fronts, and the UK saying “Oh yes we can.” As if this were still pantomime season.

Then there were Prince Harry and Princess “Suits” Meghan deciding that they would like to be independently wealthy and royal in a tax-payers-pay-for-our-travel-and-security-bills and living-off-royal-estates kind of way, while also doing dignified things like selling energy drinks and avoiding undignified things like the whole dull public duties kind of stuff.

And how about US stocks at an all-time high again? Indeed, we also have the US President tweeting: “STOCK MARKET AT ALL-TIME HIGH! HOW ARE YOUR 409K’S DOING? 70%, 80%, 90% up? Only 50% up! What are you doing wrong!” Of course, Trump has tweeted similar things before, but this is a blatant apotheosis which takes us to a political-economy of ‘liberté, inégalité, équité’. I seem to recall similar headlines to the Trump tweet, albeit worded differently, in the Chinese press during their epic equity bubble of 2015.

What else have you missed? That it’s not just the current occupant of the White House leading the charge into an equity-fetishist weltanschauung. The Fed are also doing their part to support asset prices and prevent any bad investment decision from ever being punished, as repo operation piles on top of repo operation to ensure that all have liquidity in ever-increasing amounts. With nearly free money and increasingly risk-free investing, is it any wonder we have flying cars being touted as the solution to our lack-of-public-transport problems? I seem to recall the PBOC also forever shovelling cash down the maw of a financial system that will collapse without it – and yet still not able to generate strong, sustainable, equitable growth.

And what else? Oh yes, brief fears of World War Three over Iran. As we wrote several times this week, that scream was reflective of the same lack of critical thinking that has now seen markets run all the way back to “Don’t worry, all geopolitical risk no longer matters!”. And apparently it doesn’t. Did it ever? I don’t think it did – right? (NB Sarcasm.)

You would additionally have missed the market increasingly convinced the US-China trade deal to be signed next week is the real deal, and not just a piece of political theatre for both sides to avoid escalation before November 2020. Trump even now says that “phase two” negotiations will begin straight after signing a “phase one” deal that doesn’t look to have any real substance. That’s the same voice telling you stocks are going to get even stockier ahead.

Putting this all together, a pattern emerges.

And is spells GOLGAFRINCHAN. In ‘The Hitchhikers Guide to the Galaxy’–the original book and not the vacuum of a movie–the Golgafrinchans are a species who had to flee their doomed planet in three ships, Ark Fleet Ships A, B, and C. Arks A and C contained all the “useful people who ruled, thought, or actually did work”. Ark B consisted solely of “telephone sanitisers, account executives, hairdressers, tired TV producers, insurance salesmen, personnel officers, security guards, public relations executives, and management consultants.”

Arks A and C rapidly “lose contact” with Ark B, led by an ablutophiliac captain who spends all his time having a nice bath with a rubber duck. It eventually crash-lands on a heavily-forested blue-green planet, and is settled by the crew and passengers without any of the ship’s destroyed technology.

A year later, the Golgafrinchan Colonization Committee have met 573 times – and have an inflation problem to tackle. This is because they had opted to adopt the common leaf as their currency unit, and had consequently “all suddenly become very rich”. Money literally grows on trees for them. The proposed solution to this inflation is that they should revalue the leaf by burning down all the forests.

Of course, it turns out that the planet the Golgafrinchans land on is actually Earth of the distant past; and while our current central bankers act like they belonged on Arks A and C, they are Ark B all the way, it seems.

In a country with plenty of forest and fire issues, sadly, Australia has just seen a bumper retail sales number of 0.9% for November, well above the downwardly-revised flat October reading and the 0.4% consensus. Perhaps the Golgafrinchan RBA and their rate cuts, and looming QE, have succeeded in making Aussies believe that their rising mortgage debt makes them “suddenly very rich” again. However, I think the warm water in that particular bath is still going to get cold, and fast.

Please continue to ponder the wisdom of the Golgafrinchans as you sit in your own metaphorical bath and ponder today’s main highlight, US payrolls, which we can all pretend are important when actually the Fed is locked and loaded to do nothing on rates right up until the economy slips into recession in H2 2020, which is still our house call.

*  *  *

We give the last word to Bankhaus Metzler strategists, who wrote in a note to clients this week:

“There are plenty of reasons for stronger corrections, especially in the overheated U.S. stock market: declining growth, historically ex­pensive stocks, euphoric sentiment, boiling geopolitical risks, the U.S. Federal Reserve ‘on hold’ and a US president who keeps the world on tenterhooks…”

But apart from that…?