“Central Banks Have Created A Fake Market”: BofA Asks Why Anyone Would Expect Stocks To Trade Rationally

“Central Banks Have Created A Fake Market”: BofA Asks Why Anyone Would Expect Stocks To Trade Rationally

Tyler Durden

Fri, 05/22/2020 – 13:55

It’s no longer fun to be a Wall Street macro strategist.

On one hand you have to divine the future for risk assets, looking at corporate and economic fundamentals and data, and recommend “big picture” trades based on your assessment of corporate profits and interest rates which have traditionally been the two key drivers to any macro asset allocation decision. On the other, none of that matters in a time of central planning when central banks have taken over price discovery, making your job meaningless as asset prices are now a direct consequence of nothing but central bank liquidity and explicit asset backstops. As Deutsche Bank’s Stuart Sparks put it best, “These are administered markets and market outcomes will be dictated by the policy goals of the Fed and Treasury, and the tools they select to implement policy”

Not only is it not fun, there is a sense of dejected resignation (perhaps as market experts see their careers become obsolete), one which was especially palpable when reading the latest Flow Show report from BofA’s Chief Investment Strategist Michael Hartnett who writes that these are “fake markets” in which “government and corporate bond prices have been fixed by central banks…why would anyone expect stocks to price rationally?”

To be sure there is no rationality in a world in which over the past 8 weeks there has been a 38 million rise in US unemployment coupled with a $10 trillion forecast loss in global GDP in 2020/21; this however has been offset by $4 trillion of asset purchases by central banks resulting in a $15 trillion surge in global equity market cap.

The ample confusion plaguing market participants is laid bare as Hartnett lists the six most frequently asked questions Hartnett said investors have been asking since the lows including “who is going bust?”, when will we retest the lows?”, and last but not least, “why is the stock market so divorced from reality?” Addressing the last question, Hartnett responds with the following list:

  1. Fake markets: government and corporate bond prices have been fixed by central banks…why would anyone expect stocks to price rationally?

  2. Context: 2215 out of 3042 global stocks remain in bear markets (20% below their alltime highs); $15tn stock rally must be placed in the context of $30tn collapse in Feb-Mar.

  3. History: bear market rallies in 1929, 1938, 1974 saw avg 61% rebound from lows (after avg 49% drop)…would take SPX to 3180 this rally.

  4. Positioning: BofA May Global Fund Manager Survey…just 1/10 expect a V-shaped recovery vs. 8/10 expecting U or W-shaped recovery & 7/10 saying it’s a bear market; BofA Bull & Bear Indicator pinned at 0.0 (Chart 1), i.e. investors still very bearish.

  5. Policy: past 8 weeks central banks have been buying $2.4bn per hour of financial assets (this will fade to $608mn in coming weeks).

  6. Polarization: rally concentrated in “growth” and “yield” and “quality”…market cap of FAAMG stocks > Emerging Markets, MAGA stocks > Eurozone, US healthcare > global banks outside of the US (Table 1).

With these in mind, it is Hartnett’s job to provide his clients with a recommendation, and here too the schism between markets and the economy is visible, as the CIO is both bullish and bearish at the same time.

  • Tactically bullish: still think positioning bearish and policy makers causing “immoral hazard”, forcing investors to buy, banks to lend, corporate zombies to issue in 2020; but clearly big technical levels immediately ahead (SPX 3000, NDX 10000, DXY100).

  • Structurally bearish: EPS more likely to surprise to the downside in 2021 than 2020 as policy makers to demand payback via taxes, tariffs, regulation; possibility of negative US rates, pressure on bank dividends, election and peak globalization come into focus in autumn.

All that may be moot, however, in a market where capital flows – whether from the Fed or stimulus checks being used by retail investors to ramp up stocks – is all that matters. In this context, here are the Flows to Know according to Hartnett:

  • # Cash mountain has peaked: in the past 8 weeks we have seen $1.0tn into cash, this week saw first outflows since Feb 19th ($5.9bn).

  • # Leaders: Monday saw 5th largest single day inflow to tech since 2011 ($1.2bn, largest since Jul’19), $16.7bn into healthcare past 8 weeks.

  • # Laggards: better love for small caps, no love for EM…largest inflow to US small cap stocks ($1.9bn) since Dec’19 this week, $3.8bn out of EM debt + equities.

If that wasn’t enough confusion, here are some other notable features of the ongoing bear market rally starting with the persistent bearishness of most “smart money” investors who have been dumping stocks for 6 consecutive weeks, dumping to retail investors who have been bidding up stocks with near total abandon:

  • BofA private clients: GWIM confirms cash mountain peak with 2nd week of outflow (Chart 2) and rotation back into bonds (largest inflow to debt since Mar’19 into IG, MBS, HY, Treasuries); sellers out of stocks 6 out of past 6 weeks.

  • BofA private client AA: latest is 56.6% in stocks, 23.2% in bonds, 13.9% in cash.

  • Yield curve: Aug’19 inversion of yield curve was lead indicator of recession; yield curve now steepening 5-30s >100bps (steepest since 2017); but BofA reopening portfolio still slightly underperforming lockdown portfolio (Chart 3 & Table 3).

  • US consumer vs Asian producer: US mortgage applications to purchase homes back to pre-COVID levels (Chart 4); US unemployment claims down, BAC credit card data improving; Korea May 20-day exports -20% YoY…v coincident with global EPS growth (Chart 5); but if US consumer improves investors should be long EM this summer as catch-up play

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2A5s14M Tyler Durden

FAA Approves Cargo To Ride In Passenger Seats

FAA Approves Cargo To Ride In Passenger Seats

Tyler Durden

Fri, 05/22/2020 – 13:40

Authored by FreightWaves,

U.S. airlines will soon fly temporary freighters with cargo, instead of passengers, in the seats.

Since domestic passenger carriers began operating some aircraft in cargo-only mode two months ago, they have been largely restricted to loading freight in the lower hold where baggage and shipments normally ride. On Thursday, the Federal Aviation Administration issued an exemption allowing airlines to carry cargo on seats.

Airlines had requested a two year break from existing regulations, but the FAA said the exemption is only valid through the end of 2020. The petition was filed by Airlines for America (A4A) on behalf of its members, so interested carriers must still submit a letter of intent and receive specific authorization from the agency.

The FAA determined the exemption was justified to ensure critical shipments for the COVID-19 response are not delayed at a time when most passenger flights have been suspended, creating severe capacity shortages for freight. Permitting the use of seats to increase aircraft efficiency “supports the sustainment of this critical component of the U.S. transportation infrastructure during the public health emergency and while passenger demand remains depressed, which may persist past the public health emergency,” the decision said.

There is too much market uncertainty at the moment to grant regulatory relief beyond Dec. 31, the FAA said, adding it will consider an extension at a later date depending on conditions.

The FAA has yet to rule on a separate A4A petition for permission to remove seats from passenger aircraft and load cargo on the floor.

More than 150 airlines around the world are using “ghost” freighters — no passengers, just cargo — in some form, according to industry experts. International aviation authorities have been quicker than the FAA to authorize cabin modifications for cargo. Many airlines have been loading cargo in seats for several weeks. Others, such as Icelandair, Lufthansa, Air Canada and Virgin Atlantic, have already made many flights with passenger seats removed.

Industry officials say using the seats adds about 30% more volumetric capacity, and six to seven extra tons, for cargo flights compared with just the lower hold. That can be a significant benefit when so many shipments now involve lightweight goggles, gloves and other protective medical equipment.

However, not all flights are good candidates for cargo in the passenger cabin and some airlines don’t bother because loading is labor-intensive. Individual boxes must be handled and secured, in contrast to the lower deck, which has wide doors for palletized freight.

Last month, the FAA approved the use of overhead bins, storage closets and under-seat areas for storing boxes and mail pouches on cargo-only flights. United Airlines has begun using the stowage spaces for lightweight pieces. Delta Air Lines officials have previously expressed interest in putting cargo in seats and gutting interiors to make room for larger loads. As previously reported, Alaska Airlines is ready to implement flights with cargo in seats and American Airlines says it intends to make use of the cabin for cargo. 

The FAA’s latest exemption comes with several conditions, including a weight limit of 50 pounds per seat and 20 pounds per space under a seat, extra fire extinguishers and at least two crew members riding in the cabin to detect any potential fire, and an empty row in twin-aisle planes to allow access to both sides.

In related news, Cathay Pacific last week said in its latest newsletter that it has received special approval from the Hong Kong Civil Aviation Department to use the passenger cabin to carry cargo. On Boeing 777 passenger jets, workers load via the passenger door using a catering truck to lift the boxes, then manually secure them into seats. The airline is also seeking approval to put cargo in the cabin of its Airbus fleet.

And earlier this month, Dubai-based Emirates said it started using stowage bins and seats of its Boeing 777-300 extended-range jets to optimize cargo operations.

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Florida Man Spits on Cops While Claiming to Have Coronavirus. Justice Department Accuses Him of ‘Bioweapon Hoax.’

A Florida man has been hit with federal bioterrorism hoax charges because he coughed and spit on police officers while falsely claiming to be infected with the coronavirus. He faces up to five years in prison if convicted.

On Thursday the Department of Justice announced that a federal grand jury in Tampa, Florida, had returned an indictment of 31-year-old James Jamal Curry for “perpetrating a biological weapon hoax.”

The charges stretch back to a late March incident when St. Petersburg police arrested Curry for felony domestic battery and false imprisonment charges after he allegedly hit his then-girlfriend in their apartment.

While being searched during that arrest, Curry told officers he had coronavirus and then coughed in their direction, according to an FBI affidavit. He posted bail the next day but was arrested that same evening for going over to his girlfriend’s house in violation of a no-contact order.

The FBI affidavit says that when St. Petersburg police tried to arrest him a second time, Curry struggled with police officers before spitting into one of their mouths and saying “I have corona, bitch, and I’m spreading it around.”

Curry was later tested for the coronavirus. The test came back negative.

In early April, following an FBI investigation, the Department of Justice filed a criminal complaint against Curry on terrorism hoax charges, reasoning that because the COVID-19 disease caused by coronavirus was “a virus capable of causing death,” it met the federal definition of a “biological agent.” Because Curry lied about having this deadly virus, he was therefore guilty of a bioweapons hoax.

The grand jury decision Thursday means the case against Curry can go forward.

If the information in the affidavit about Curry is true, he’s a bad guy and should be punished under normal state criminal laws.

But the terrorism hoax charges are a ridiculous overreach. The circumstances of his case couldn’t have less to do with the reason Congress passed the first federal law against terrorism hoaxes back in 2004.

That year, the Stop Terrorist and Military Hoaxes Act was passed as part of a major defense and intelligence reform bill. The intention behind the legislation was to crack down on people calling in fake terrorist threats in the wake of 9/11.

“Since September 11, hoaxes have seriously disrupted people’s lives and needlessly diverted law-enforcement and emergency-services resources,” the Justice Department explained in congressional testimony at the time, pointing specifically to fake anthrax attacks.

Curry’s claims do not seem to have caused any community panic or to have diverted law enforcement resources, with the possible exception of police testing him for COVID-19. And given how jails across the country have become hotspots of the disease, it should frankly be standard practice to test inmates for it.

If the letter of the anti-hoax law can be stretched to apply to Curry’s case, that suggests the law is overbroad and needs to be pared back.

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The Trump Administration Wants To Subsidize Domestic Drug Manufacturing. The First Contract Looks Like a $350 Million Grift.

The Trump administration just handed a $350 million contract to a relatively unknown Virginia-based pharmaceutical company that doesn’t have any history of mass producing pharmaceutical drugs and appears to have been founded this year for the purpose of cashing in on protectionist politics.

The contract is one of the largest ever given by the federal government to a single pharmaceutical company, according to BioPharma Dive, a trade publication. “While that’s noteworthy in itself,” it noted, “it’s made more so by the fact that Phlow is a relatively unknown entity in the drug manufacturing world.”

Indeed, the company was only founded in January. Despite that, a Phlow spokesman told BioPharma Dive that the company’s leaders had been “communicating with government officials about the U.S. pharmaceutical supply for more than a year” and that Phlow’s “stated mission” is “reducing the U.S.’ dependence on foreign supply chains.”

Phlow Corp. “has no track record in drug manufacturing, and it’s not clear when its assembly lines will begin churning out products,” Politico reports. The whole arrangement leaves the impression that the contract awarded to Phlow Corp. has more to do with politics than pharmaceuticals.

Nevertheless, White House officials called this week’s deal with Phlow Corp. a “landmark” accomplishment, according to The Washington Post. “This is a great day for America,” White House trade advisor Peter Navarro told the paper. “This has all of the elements of the Trump strategy.”

If that’s true, then President Donald Trump’s strategy looks a lot like crony capitalism built on a misunderstanding of economics and trade—specifically, the global trade in pharmaceutical products. The Phlow Corp. contract will inject millions of taxpayer dollars into a single company, but the effort is unlikely to do much to reshape those pharmaceutical supply lines. It is perhaps the best signal yet that the protectionism sought by Republican neo-nationalists is just corporatism in a new wrapper.

Even setting aside the possibility of cronyism, the deal is both unnecessary and likely to be ineffective.

Ineffective because a few hundred million dollars won’t address the biggest obstacle to manufacturing drugs in the United States. “The investment that would be needed to restart some of the API [active pharmaceutical ingredient] business here in the U.S., especially with much more stringent [environmental] and wastewater requirements, it’s really unrealistic to think that could be done and still be price competitive,” Susan Capie, managing director of PharmaVantage, a New York-based consulting firm, told the Post.

Unnecessary because America’s drug supply chains are not overly reliant on China.

“The United States’ supply of medicine is very well diversified,” writes Jacqueline Varas, director of immigration and trade policy for the American Action Forum, in a comprehensive review of America’s pharmaceutical supply chains. “China does not supply anywhere close to a majority of APIs, antibiotics, or vaccines in the United States.”

In 2019, the United States imported $127 billion worth of pharmaceutical goods. Ireland was the top source, according to data from the International Trade Commission (ITC). China ranked 17th, supplying just over 1 percent of those imports. Even though that category includes more than just drugs—the ITC also counts bandages, test kits, and some dental products as pharmaceutical goods—the overall picture shows no crippling dependence on Chinese products.

And all the emphasis on imported drugs also obscures a critical part of the picture. A 2019 FDA report shows that the United States has nearly twice as many API manufacturing facilities as China and more than any other nation in the world.

Source: FDA; Safeguarding Pharmaceutical Supply Chains in a Global Economy, October 2019

But why let the facts get in the way of some federal subsidies?

For months, media outlets ranging from the right-wing American Greatness to the center-left Atlantic have been claiming that 80 percent of America’s drugs come from China. (I debunked this claim here.) The misleading statistic’s source is often Rosemary Gibson, a senior fellow at the Hastings Center and the author of China RX, a 2018 book detailing “the risks of America’s dependence on China for medicine.” As I wrote, Gibson has

become the darling of right-wing media and politicians who see the coronavirus outbreak as an opportunity to ramp up a U.S.-China cold war. “All Our Drugs To Treat The Coronavirus Depend on Chinese Suppliers” noted a headline in The American Conservative on February 17 in which she argued that “we depend on China for 80 percent of the core components” that go into U.S. drugs. She had used the same “80 percent” stat in a December 13 article too, both times without attribution. In the December Politico piece highlighting how policy makers were worried about China “weaponizing” drug exports, Gibson was the first expert quoted. “Medicines can be used as a weapon of war against the United States,” she warned.

Gibson has also been called to testify in front of Congress about this supposed threat. In March 12, she told the Senate Committee on Small Business and Entrepreneurship that “the United States faces an existential threat posed by China’s control over the global supply of the ingredients in thousands of essential generic medicines.” Her dire warnings about America’s pharmaceutical supply chains have caught the eye of nationalist lawmakers like Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) and conservative pundits like National Review editor Rich Lowry.

It is probably not a coincidence that Gibson happens to be on the board of Phlow Corp.

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The Trump Administration Wants To Subsidize Domestic Drug Manufacturing. The First Contract Looks Like a $350 Million Grift.

The Trump administration just handed a $350 million contract to a relatively unknown Virginia-based pharmaceutical company that doesn’t have any history of mass producing pharmaceutical drugs and appears to have been founded this year for the purpose of cashing in on protectionist politics.

The contract is one of the largest ever given by the federal government to a single pharmaceutical company, according to BioPharma Dive, a trade publication. “While that’s noteworthy in itself,” it noted, “it’s made more so by the fact that Phlow is a relatively unknown entity in the drug manufacturing world.”

Indeed, the company was only founded in January. Despite that, a Phlow spokesman told BioPharma Dive that the company’s leaders had been “communicating with government officials about the U.S. pharmaceutical supply for more than a year” and that Phlow’s “stated mission” is “reducing the U.S.’ dependence on foreign supply chains.”

Phlow Corp. “has no track record in drug manufacturing, and it’s not clear when its assembly lines will begin churning out products,” Politico reports. The whole arrangement leaves the impression that the contract awarded to Phlow Corp. has more to do with politics than pharmaceuticals.

Nevertheless, White House officials called this week’s deal with Phlow Corp. a “landmark” accomplishment, according to The Washington Post. “This is a great day for America,” White House trade advisor Peter Navarro told the paper. “This has all of the elements of the Trump strategy.”

If that’s true, then President Donald Trump’s strategy looks a lot like crony capitalism built on a misunderstanding of economics and trade—specifically, the global trade in pharmaceutical products. The Phlow Corp. contract will inject millions of taxpayer dollars into a single company, but the effort is unlikely to do much to reshape those pharmaceutical supply lines. It is perhaps the best signal yet that the protectionism sought by Republican neo-nationalists is just corporatism in a new wrapper.

Even setting aside the possibility of cronyism, the deal is both unnecessary and likely to be ineffective.

Ineffective because a few hundred million dollars won’t address the biggest obstacle to manufacturing drugs in the United States. “The investment that would be needed to restart some of the API [active pharmaceutical ingredient] business here in the U.S., especially with much more stringent [environmental] and wastewater requirements, it’s really unrealistic to think that could be done and still be price competitive,” Susan Capie, managing director of PharmaVantage, a New York-based consulting firm, told the Post.

Unnecessary because America’s drug supply chains are not overly reliant on China.

“The United States’ supply of medicine is very well diversified,” writes Jacqueline Varas, director of immigration and trade policy for the American Action Forum, in a comprehensive review of America’s pharmaceutical supply chains. “China does not supply anywhere close to a majority of APIs, antibiotics, or vaccines in the United States.”

In 2019, the United States imported $127 billion worth of pharmaceutical goods. Ireland was the top source, according to data from the International Trade Commission (ITC). China ranked 17th, supplying just over 1 percent of those imports. Even though that category includes more than just drugs—the ITC also counts bandages, test kits, and some dental products as pharmaceutical goods—the overall picture shows no crippling dependence on Chinese products.

And all the emphasis on imported drugs also obscures a critical part of the picture. A 2019 FDA report shows that the United States has nearly twice as many API manufacturing facilities as China and more than any other nation in the world.

Source: FDA; Safeguarding Pharmaceutical Supply Chains in a Global Economy, October 2019

But why let the facts get in the way of some federal subsidies?

For months, media outlets ranging from the right-wing American Greatness to the center-left Atlantic have been claiming that 80 percent of America’s drugs come from China. (I debunked this claim here.) The misleading statistic’s source is often Rosemary Gibson, a senior fellow at the Hastings Center and the author of China RX, a 2018 book detailing “the risks of America’s dependence on China for medicine.” As I wrote, Gibson has

become the darling of right-wing media and politicians who see the coronavirus outbreak as an opportunity to ramp up a U.S.-China cold war. “All Our Drugs To Treat The Coronavirus Depend on Chinese Suppliers” noted a headline in The American Conservative on February 17 in which she argued that “we depend on China for 80 percent of the core components” that go into U.S. drugs. She had used the same “80 percent” stat in a December 13 article too, both times without attribution. In the December Politico piece highlighting how policy makers were worried about China “weaponizing” drug exports, Gibson was the first expert quoted. “Medicines can be used as a weapon of war against the United States,” she warned.

Gibson has also been called to testify in front of Congress about this supposed threat. In March 12, she told the Senate Committee on Small Business and Entrepreneurship that “the United States faces an existential threat posed by China’s control over the global supply of the ingredients in thousands of essential generic medicines.” Her dire warnings about America’s pharmaceutical supply chains have caught the eye of nationalist lawmakers like Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) and conservative pundits like National Review editor Rich Lowry.

It is probably not a coincidence that Gibson happens to be on the board of Phlow Corp.

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ACLU’s Argument Against Puerto Rico’s “Fake News” Ban

The ACLU just filed its motion for a preliminary injunction in this case, which I blogged about Wednesday. Here is the heart of the argument:

Introduction

Plaintiffs Sandra D. Rodríguez-Cotto and Rafelli González-Cotto move for a preliminary injunction against two provisions of the Law of the Puerto Rico Department of Public Safety, both of which make it a crime to share false information about emergency conditions in Puerto Rico. The first challenged provision, 25 L.P.R.A. § 3654(a), makes it a crime to raise a false alarm about an impending emergency or catastrophe in Puerto Rico or to “spread[] rumors or rais[e] false alarms regarding nonexisting abnormalities” during an emergency. The second challenged provision, 25 L.P.R.A. § 3654(f), makes it a crime to transmit, or allow another person to transmit, “false information” about “any proclamation or executive order decreeing a state of emergency or disaster or curfew” with the intent to cause “confusion, panic, or collective public hysteria.”

The Challenged Provisions violate the constitutional rights to free speech, a free press, and due process. First, the Challenged Provisions criminalize a substantial amount of core speech on matters of immense public concern, in violation of the First Amendment. Although they ostensibly apply only to false information about emergency conditions in Puerto Rico, they do not require the government to demonstrate that the defendant published the information with actual malice—i.e., that the defendant knew the speech to be false or acted with reckless disregard as to falsity. Without this essential safeguard, the Challenged Provisions may be used to prosecute reporters and other members of the public for inadvertent inaccuracies or even for true speech that casts the government and its officials in a negative light, as Puerto Rico’s former criminal defamation law was used to prosecute reporters who exposed police misconduct. Mangual v. Rotger-Sabat, 317 F.3d 45 (1st Cir. 2003).

Second, even if the Challenged Provisions were limited to deliberately false speech about emergency conditions in Puerto Rico, they would still violate the First Amendment because they impose a content-based restriction on speech about matters of public concern. As the Supreme Court recognized in United States v. Alvarez, 567 U.S. 709 (2012), even deliberately false speech is protected by the First Amendment under most circumstances. At the very least, content-based restrictions on false but otherwise protected speech about matters of public concern must endure the most stringent judicial scrutiny. That is because allowing the government to serve as the arbiter of truth on such vitally important topics, even with the protections of an actual malice requirement, presents an unacceptable risk of suppressing truthful speech.

Here, the Challenged Provisions cannot possibly satisfy strict (or even intermediate) scrutiny, because they are not appropriately tailored to any overriding government interest. There is no evidence that so-called fake news about emergency conditions in Puerto Rico creates significant risks to public health or public order. But even if there were, government transparency would be the appropriate remedy, not government censorship.

Finally, the Challenged Provisions violate the Fourteenth Amendment’s Due Process Clause because they are too vague for criminal restrictions on speech. It is impossible to determine what constitutes a “non-existing abnormality” under 25 L.P.R.A. § 3654(a) or an intent to cause “confusion” under 25 L.P.R.A. § 3654(f). These terms are so capacious they could conceivably apply to any speech related to emergency conditions in Puerto Rico during the COVID-19 public health crisis, which effectively means almost all newsworthy speech. The vagueness inherent in these terms not only fails to provide Plaintiffs and others with adequate notice about what types of false speech are prohibited, it also gives law enforcement officials virtually untethered discretion in deciding whom to prosecute. The obvious danger, under such circumstances, is that the Challenged Provisions will be used to selectively prosecute those who criticize the government and its officials….

Factual Background …

[Section 3654(a)] was recently invoked to prosecute a pastor for spreading allegedly false information about government emergency orders on the messaging platform WhatsApp. {Alex Cancel, Ante FBI el mensaje falso que causó alarma por WhatsApp, El Nuevo Día, Mar. 23, 2020.}… [T]he government accused Pastor José Luis Rivera Santiago of violating 25 L.P.R.A. § 3654(a) by disseminating false information on the messaging platform WhatsApp about a rumored executive emergency order to close all businesses. The government alleged that Pastor Rivera Santiago’s speech resulted in a rush on the supermarkets. In fact, however, Governor Vázquez did eventually announce an executive order closing almost all businesses in Puerto Rico over Easter weekend, which itself caused a run on the grocery stores. On May 7, police confirmed that charges against the pastor had been dismissed by the Court of San Juan for lack of probable cause. Pastor Rivera Santiago’s prosecution alerted Plaintiffs, and other members of the press, about the dangers of being prosecuted under the fake news laws….

[A.] The Challenged Provisions Are Substantially Overbroad.

First, the Challenged Provisions are facially deficient because they do not require the government to demonstrate that the defendant published with actual malice…. The Challenged Provisions suffer from the same fundamental defect as the criminal defamation law struck down in Mangual. They do not require the government to demonstrate that the defendant either knew the information to be false or acted with reckless disregard as to falsity.

In other words, the Challenged Provisions authorize the government to prosecute people for inadvertent inaccuracies or speech that the government deems to be false. The absence of an actual malice requirement would be fatal in any criminal law restricting speech on matters of public concern, but it is especially pernicious in a law regulating speech about emergencies. By their very nature, emergencies are time-sensitive, factually complex, and politically contentious. Laws that make it a crime to share false information in an emergency, without requiring the government to demonstrate that the speaker acted with actual malice, are guaranteed to chill reporting and commentary that does not toe the government’s official line—which can have disastrous consequences if the government’s official line turns out to be wrong, as it was during the controversy over the death toll caused by Hurricane Maria.

Although 25 L.P.R.A. § 3654(f) requires the government to demonstrate that the defendant intended to cause “confusion, panic, or public hysteria,” this nebulous intent standard is not a legitimate substitute for an actual malice requirement. First, any speech criticizing emergency measures the government deems necessary or important will likely be viewed by the government as motivated by the illicit desire to cause “confusion, panic, or public hysteria.” See Garrison, 379 U.S. at 74 (noting that, in many criminal defamation cases, it will be “almost impossible to show freedom from ill-will or selfish political motives”). Putting that aside, “utterances honestly believed contribute to the free interchange of ideas and the ascertainment of truth,” regardless of whether they are spoken with benign or illicit intent. Garrison, 379 U.S. at 73. Confusion, panic, and even public hysteria may be natural responses to news about a public emergency or the government’s response to that emergency. But the public has a right to know what is going on, and journalists have a professional duty to report on matters of public concern, without regard to their personal predictions about how people might react.

Nor can the Challenged Provisions be justified on the ground that false speech about emergency conditions in Puerto Rico creates a “clear and present danger” to public safety. See Schenck v. United States, 249 U.S. 47, 52 (1919). “[T]he clear and present danger of Schenck v. United States, 249 U.S. 47 (1919), has evolved into the modern incitement rule of Brandenburg

  1. Ohio, 395 U.S. 444 (1969).” Denver Area Educ. Telecommunications Consortium, Inc. v.

F.C.C., 518 U.S. 727, 778 (1996) (parallel citations omitted). As a result, it is now well established that “the mere tendency of speech to encourage unlawful acts is not a sufficient reason for banning it.” Ashcroft v. Free Speech Coal., 535 U.S. 234, 236 (2002) (citing Stanley v. Georgia, 394 U.S. 557, 566 (1969)).

Speech may be suppressed on the ground that it incites unlawful conduct only where the speech “is directed to inciting or producing imminent lawless action and is likely to incite or produce such action.” Brandenburg, 395 U.S. at 447. But the Challenged Provisions are plainly not limited to incitement. Neither provision requires the government to demonstrate that the defendant’s speech was directed to producing imminent lawless action or that the speech was likely to produce such action. “A statute which fails to draw this distinction impermissibly intrudes upon the freedoms guaranteed by the First and Fourteenth Amendments. It sweeps within its condemnation speech which our Constitution has immunized from governmental control.” Id. at 448.

[B.] The Challenged Provisions Are Unconstitutionally Content Based.

Second, the Challenged Provisions impose content-based restrictions on speech about emergency conditions in Puerto Rico, including the government’s emergency orders. “[A]bove all else, the First Amendment means that government has no power to restrict expression because of its message, its ideas, its subject matter, or its content.” “Government regulation of speech is content based if a law applies to particular speech because of the topic discussed or the idea or message expressed. This commonsense meaning of the phrase ‘content based’ requires a court to consider whether a regulation of speech ‘on its face’ draws distinctions based on the message a speaker conveys.” Reed v. Town of Gilbert, 135 S. Ct. 2218, 2227 (2015) (citations omitted). In other words, a law is facially content based “if it require[s] ‘enforcement authorities’ to ‘examine the content of the message that is conveyed to determine whether’ a violation has occurred.” McCullen v. Coakley, 573 U.S. 464, 479 (2014). Content-based laws are presumptively unconstitutional and are subject to strict judicial scrutiny.

The Challenged Provisions are facially content-based restrictions on speech about public emergencies in Puerto Rico. 25 L.P.R.A. § 3654(a) prohibits raising a false alarm about an impending emergency in Puerto Rico or, if an emergency is already occurring, “spread[ing] rumors or giv[ing] false alarms about non-existing abnormalities.” 25 L.P.R.A. § 3654(f) makes it a crime to share false information about “any proclamation or executive order decreeing a state of emergency or disaster or curfew.” Both provisions require enforcement authorities to examine the content of the offending message to determine whether it constitutes a crime.

As discussed in Section I.A, the Challenged Provisions are in no way limited to deliberately false speech. But even if they were, the Challenged Provisions would still be facially unconstitutional. The Supreme Court plurality in Alvarez held that content-based restrictions on deliberately false speech trigger strict scrutiny, because the government does not have the “authority to compile a list of subjects about which false statements are punishable.” Alvarez, 567 U.S. at 724 (2012) (plurality op.). Although the concurrence and dissent disagreed with the plurality about whether strict scrutiny applies to all content-based restrictions on deliberately false but otherwise speech, the Justices unanimously agreed that content-based restrictions on false speech about “matters of public concern” ordinarily trigger strict scrutiny, because allowing “the state to be the arbiter of truth” on such matters “would present a grave and unacceptable danger of suppressing truthful speech.” Id. at 751-52 (Alito, J., dissenting); accord id. at 731-32 (Breyer, J., concurring). Thus, for example, “the Constitution does not tolerate in any form” the “spectre of prosecutions for libel on government,” regardless of the defendant’s knowledge or intent. Rosenblatt v. Baer, 383 U.S. 75, 81 (1966).

Strict scrutiny requires the government to demonstrate that the restriction is both “necessary to serve a compelling state interest and is narrowly drawn to achieve that end.” In order to demonstrate that a content-based restriction on speech is “actually necessary” to achieve a compelling government interest, the government “must specifically identify an actual problem in need of solving, and the curtailment of free speech must be actually necessary to the solution.” Furthermore, the government’s conclusions must be supported by actual evidence, not “anecdote and supposition.”

The Statement of Motives for Law 35-2020 indicates that 25 L.P.R.A. § 3654(f) was enacted because false speech about government emergency orders “threatens the security of the people and the social order, endangering the health and life of citizens.” This bare conclusion is insufficient to justify a restriction on speech. “The word ‘security’ is a broad, vague generality whose contours should not be invoked to abrogate the fundamental law embodied in the First Amendment.” N.Y. Times Co. v. United States, 403 U.S. 713, 719 (1971) (Black, J., concurring). The Framers of the Constitution, “fully aware of both the need to defend a new nation and the abuses of the English and Colonial Governments, sought to give this new society strength and security by providing that freedom of speech, press, religion, and assembly should not be abridged.”

Furthermore, there are no legislative findings to support the government’s supposition that false speech about emergency conditions in Puerto Rico poses a significant threat to public health and security. Nor is there any evidence that the Challenged Provisions will meaningfully contribute to public wellbeing, or even that they will prevent public confusion. See Alvarez, 567 U.S. at 728 (“[S]uppression of speech by the government can make exposure of falsity more difficult, not less so”).

The Challenged Provisions are also far from the least restrictive means for achieving the government’s stated interests. To satisfy the least restrictive means test, the government must demonstrate that any “plausible, less restrictive alternative would be ineffective” in achieving its compelling goals. “[I]f a less restrictive means is available for the Government to achieve its goals, the Government must use it.”

In this case, there is an obvious less-restrictive alternative at the government’s disposal: counterspeech. Alvarez, 567 U.S. at 727 (“The remedy for speech that is false is speech that is true. This is the ordinary course in a free society.”). For instance, the government could prevent false speech about emergency conditions in Puerto Rico from causing public consternation by holding regular press briefings, releasing pertinent records, and explaining its planned course of action to the public. See id. at 729 (suggesting that, instead of making it a crime to falsely claim the Medal of Honor, the government could establish a public database of Medal of Honor recipients). Government transparency is likely to be much more effective at maintaining public order, and building public trust, than government censorship. Law 35-2020’s legislative findings do nothing to rebut the strong presumption that increased government transparency should be sufficient to prevent public disorder caused by public confusion.

[C.] The Challenged Provisions Are Unconstitutionally Vague.

The Challenged Provisions are also unconstitutionally vague, both on their face and as applied to Plaintiffs, in violation of the Fourteenth Amendment’s Due Process Clause….

First, L.P.R.A.§3654(a) is unconstitutionally vague because it is entirely unclear what the law means when it prohibits sharing false information about “non-existing abnormalities” during a state of emergency or disaster. By definition, states of emergency are almost entirely abnormal. A prohibition against sharing false information about “non-existing abnormalities” during a state of emergency therefore potentially applies to false speech on just about any matter of public concern, from the health of government officials to changes in election procedures to economic forecasts, for as long as the state of emergency lasts.

This all-encompassing standard not only fails to provide adequate notice about what speech is prohibited—for instance, it is unclear whether it applies to disputes about the death toll or the fatality rate—it also makes the statute highly susceptible to discriminatory enforcement. “[T]he pervasiveness of false statements, made for better or for worse motives, made thoughtlessly or deliberately, made with or without accompanying harm, provides a weapon to a government broadly empowered to prosecute falsity without more. And those who are unpopular may fear that the government will use that weapon selectively[.]” Alvarez, 567 U.S. at 734 (Breyer, J., concurring).

Second, L.P.R.A. § 3654(f) is unconstitutionally vague because the statute’s intent requirement is too nebulous to bring it within constitutional bounds. It is unclear what the law means by “confusion,” and the terms “panic” and “public hysteria” are not much clearer as

standards for criminal culpability. Is honest reporting about the government’s deliberations about whether to impose, extend, modify, or lift an emergency order intended to cause confusion if the article reflects a confused and uncertain state of affairs? Is an article intended to cause panic if panic is foreseeable in response to news about an impending shutdown?

Such a nebulous intent requirement, tied to criminal penalties, necessarily compels people “to steer far wider of the unlawful zone … than if the boundaries of the forbidden areas were clearly marked.” In concrete terms, journalists will be reluctant to report unofficial information about the government’s emergency response, because the statute’s intent standard provides no reliable protection against prosecution or conviction.

Conversely, the law effectively empowers police officers and prosecutors to initiate criminal proceedings against any member of the public whose speech includes real or imagined inaccuracies about government emergency orders. The “need to eliminate the impermissible risk of discriminatory enforcement” is especially important with respect to criminal regulations of speech, “for history shows that speech is suppressed when either the speaker or the message is critical of those who enforce the law.” In this case, 25 L.P.R.A. § 3654(f) is expressly directed to speech about the government’s emergency orders. Under these circumstances, concerns about discriminatory enforcement against speakers critical of the government are at their zenith. The law’s sweeping intent standard fails to dispel these concerns.

Even if 25 L.P.R.A. § 3654(f) could be construed to prohibit spreading false information with the intent to cause a breach of the peace, it would still be unconstitutionally vague for the reasons laid down by the Supreme Court in Ashton v. Kentucky, 384 U.S. 195 (1966). There, the Court held that Kentucky’s common law of criminal defamation was unconstitutionally vague, even though it required the government to demonstrate both that the defendant spoke with actual malice and that the statement was “calculated to create disturbances of the peace.” The Court explained that criminalizing statements “‘calculated to create disturbances of the peace’ leaves wide open the standard of responsibility,” because it “involves calculations as to the boiling point of a particular person or a particular group.”

Likewise, 25 L.P.R.A. § 3654(f) requires members of the press to ascertain in advance, on pain of criminal penalty, whether their speech would likely cause confusion, panic, or public hysteria in Puerto Rico. It is not the proper function of the press to make these paternalistic calculations. Rather, it is the press’s duty to inform the public in accordance with standard journalistic practices….

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Fed Tapers Daily Treasury Purchases To Just $5 Billion Per Day

Fed Tapers Daily Treasury Purchases To Just $5 Billion Per Day

Tyler Durden

Fri, 05/22/2020 – 13:25

From an initial $75 billion per day when the Fed announced the launch of Unlimited QE in mid-March, the US central bank first reduced its daily buying to $60 billion per day, then  announced another ‘taper’ in its bond-buying program to $50 billion per day, which was followed by a reduction to $30 billion per day, which then was again cut in half to $15 billion per day. Then, four weeks ago the Fed again slashed its daily POMO by another 33%, to $10BN per day, before cutting it to $8 billion three weeks ago, then again to $7 billion one week later last week, and to $6 billion last week. Fast forward to today when, in its latest just published schedule, the Fed unveiled – as we hinted last night – that in the coming week it would purchase “only” $5BN per day, or a total of $20BN for the week (with Monday a holiday).

The Fed is continuing the practice of incremental tapering, and providing a weekly preview of its purchasing operations, which in the coming week will amount to just $20BN in TSYs, down $10BN from the current week since the Fed can’t buy bonds on Labor Day.

Here is the full schedule of Treasury purchases for the week ahead.

Curiously, unlike recent weeks when the weekly POMO peaked on Tuesday (as we showed last week), this week the Fed decided to rearrange the buying, with the coming Tuesday, May 26, set to see the lowest amount of POMO in the coming week.

Somewhat surprisingly, the Fed decided not to taper its daily MBS buying, which will average $4.5 billion per day next week, the same as last week:

  • Mon: No purchases, vs $4.545BN last Monday
  • Tue: $4.23BN vs $4.433BN last Tuesday
  • Wed: $4.770BN vs $4.545BN last Wednesday
  • Thur: $4.230BN vs $4.433BN last Thursday
  • Fri: $4.770BN vs $4.545BN last Friday

The chart below summarizes all the Fed Treasury and MBS buying completed and scheduled since the relaunch of QE on March 13:

Iin aggregate, the Fed will buy a total of $38 billion of TSYs/MBS in the holiday shortened week, down $52.5 billion last week, and dangerously close to spark concerns that the Fed is no longer monetizing all the Treasury issuance, of which there is and will be trillion in the coming quarters.

Notably, unlike last week when the news of the latest POMO taper pushed yields to session highs, this time there was no similar reaction, with the 10Y trading at 0.66%, 2bps above where it was trading at exactly this time one week ago, and unchanged from 2 weeks ago.

In any case, bonds are clearly not yet getting anxious about the pace of Fed QE tapering, which may be a mistake because as Goldman warns, the increase in sovereign bond supply is rapidly outpacing global QE. Then again, if and when Powell cuts a few billion more, we may finally see a bond market tantrum as traders realize they have no choice but to force the Fed to keep buying bonds at a more brisk pace, especially with some $3 trillion set to be sold this quarter, to fund 2020’s total issuance which according to Guggenheim will be an absolutely insane $5+ trillion.

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Left-Wing Columnist: “I Would Vote For Joe Biden If He Boiled Babies And Ate Them”

Left-Wing Columnist: “I Would Vote For Joe Biden If He Boiled Babies And Ate Them”

Tyler Durden

Fri, 05/22/2020 – 13:16

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

We have been discussing the hypocrisy in the response of Democratic politiciansmedia outlets, and many commentators in their response to the allegations of sexual assault by former Vice President Joe Biden as compared to their position against Justice Brett Kavanaugh.  This has included an opposition to simply opening up the Biden papers for a search of any sexual harassment or assault allegations made against him.  This has included statements from leading figures that they believe Biden did sexually assault Biden staffer Tara Reade but would still endorse him. 

None however have gone quite as far as Nation columnist Katha Pollitt who has declared that she would support Biden “if he boiled babies and ate them.”  Biden has not issued any position on such infanticide but politicians have long opposed the practice since the demise of Cronus.  Putting any humor aside, the statement does show how rigid and fanatical both sides have become in this election.  While Democrats have long denounced Trump for saying he could shoot someone on Fifth Avenue, Biden supporters like Pollitt have said equally disturbing things about their blind loyalty.  More importantly, this sense of a mission is manifested in much of the legal and media analysis that we have discussed on this blog on both sides of the political spectrum.

Pollitt joined others in saying that she simply does not care Biden raped a women in his office:

“I would vote for Joe Biden if he boiled babies and ate them. He wasn’t my candidate, but taking back the White House is that important.” 

While she added that she simply does not believe Reade, she stresses that it does not matter:

“Whether or not you believe Tara Reade … you should vote for Joe Biden if he is the nominee. … We do not have the luxury of sitting out the election to feel morally pure or send a message about sexual assault and #BelieveWomen. That will not help women at all. Or anyone else.”

I have repeatedly said that I still fear that the record strongly favors Biden.  During the Kavanaugh controversy, I maintained that women need to be heard and taken seriously in raising these allegations.  I have also objected to those who would toss aside due process and simply accept accusations without investigation. Notably, while most are remaining silent and refusing to respond to media inquiries, some Democrats are now adopting that approach for Biden and, rather than saying that Reade must be believed, they are now saying that she must be heard.

Many Democratic politicians and commentators have struggled with the clearly hypocritical position of declaring Biden innocent while previously insisting that women “must be believed.” The problem is that, if you declare that no one has a right to be simply believed, it requires a full and fair investigation. However, Biden has refused to open up his records to look into any allegations of sexual harassment or sexual abuse by Reade or others.  Thus, you can either declare Biden to be innocent without such a review of this papers as has Speaker Nancy Pelosi or you have to call for his records to be reviewed.  The alternative is to just accept his guilt as a rapist (thus avoiding the need for an investigation in that and other claims) but say it really doesn’t change anything.

For Pollitt, believing women or standing against sexual assault is now a “luxury.” 

No doubt the same advocates will once again enjoy that luxury when a Republican is accused.

Yet, during the Kavanaugh hearings, Pollitt lashed out against “some of his defenders [who] seem to be saying that even if the allegations are true, it shouldn’t really matter.”  She added “While we are thinking of how much responsibility men should bear for the deeds of their youth, let’s not forget the women who don’t get to put their past behind them—even when they are the victim of rape.”

It appears however that rape allegations “shouldn’t really matter” if the accused is a Democrat and an election is at stake.

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Watch Live: Trump Announces Impromptu Press Conference

Watch Live: Trump Announces Impromptu Press Conference

Tyler Durden

Fri, 05/22/2020 – 13:06

President Trump announced an impromptu press conference on Friday. No word on the topic, and as usual, he’s fashionably late to the podium.

Watch Live:

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“This Is Life And Death”: Tesla Employees Say Fremont Factory Is A “Modern Day Sweatshop”

“This Is Life And Death”: Tesla Employees Say Fremont Factory Is A “Modern Day Sweatshop”

Tyler Durden

Fri, 05/22/2020 – 12:55

Is it possible that working for the visionary boy-genius Elon Musk isn’t the modern day utopia that many Tesla cultists believe it is? What about working for the very same CEO that is rushing his employees back to work in the midst of a global pandemic?

On the contrary to Musk’s vision of saving the world (or whatever the hell he thinks his vision is), one worker recently described the company’s Fremont plant as “a modern-day sweatshop,” according to electrek.

Reporting on the company’s safety and working conditions, amidst Elon Musk’s perpetual struggle with “fascist” governments to re-open, another employee said of the company’s flagship factory: “This is a life and death situation.”

That worker, Carlos Gabriel, refused to return to work. He said: “There’s really no room, and this is a factory with recycled air. You’re basically just breathing on each other.”

Carlos Gabriel

Another employee talked about a meeting that Tesla had about a week before the factory was reluctantly given the go-ahead to re-open: “We were inches apart from one another. Didn’t look like they made any changes to the line. On the line, we sometimes work on top of each other, touching the same equipment.”

He continued: “They give us a mask and take our temps when we walk in. The bathrooms aren’t always clean and are small. I really don’t feel safe.”

An employee who reached out to electrek added: “Unions have been trying to get in for years with no luck. Everybody knows that Elon wouldn’t allow it.” One assembly line employee, a 61 year old that went by the name of “Art”, said that employees were “shoulder to shoulder” on the line worker. There’s “no room for 6 feet of distance,” he said. 

In March, during the formal shut down, another employee said that Tesla was “still running full production”. They stated: “I arrived at work this morning. We are still running full production. Does not look like they cut down on the workforce. They give us a mask and take our temperature when we walk in. They are not practicing safe social distance.

Meanwhile, Tesla continues to call employees back into work, warning those who don’t show up that they could lose unemployment benefits. Elon Musk wrote in a May 12 e-mail to employees:

Just wanted to send you a note of appreciation for working hard to make Tesla successful. It is so cool seeing the factory come back to life and you are making it happen!

An honest day’s work spent building products or providing services of use to others is extremely honorable. I have vastly more respect for someone who takes pride in doing a good job, whatever the profession, than some rich or famous person who does nothing useful.

But SF Weekly published a recent report stating that measures outlined by the company’s HR – namely Alameda County’s expected safety precautions – were not being adhered to. 

“They’re trying to implement the changes while everyone’s working. It makes you wonder if your life is worth 20 bucks an hour,” one employee concluded.

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/3bOIhVe Tyler Durden