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This week’s post payrolls data calendar is pretty modest: the US reports consumer credit today, small business optimism tomorrow, but attention is reserved for CPI and retail sales on Friday.

Elsewhere around the globe, SocGen summarizes that we get Eurozone consumer and business confidence data today (it hit a 2 decade high), unemployment tomorrow the ECB ‘account’ on Thursday; The UK has a cabinet re-shuffle today, industrial production tomorrow and trade on Wednesday; Chinese CPI data are due Wednesday.

Data and events ahead

In Euro area, the unemployment rate is expected to decline to 8.7% (8.8% prev), and German GDP (Thurs) to rise 2.6% (prev 1.9%). In UK, we forecast Industrial Production on Wed to be1.8% (3.6%, prev) and Manufacturing Production to be 2.8% (3.9% prev). We also have Non-monetary policy’s ECB meeting on Tues, ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts and Bank of England Credit Conditions & Bank Liabilities Surveys on Thurs.

In China, we have producer and consumer price index (Wed). Banks expects CPI inflation to inch up to 1.9% yoy in Dec from 1.7% in Nov. PPI inflation has likely eased to 4.8% in Dec from 5.8% in Nov, mainly due to a higher comparison base last year.

In US, core CPI is expected to grow 0.2% mom in Dec, leaving yoy inflation at 1.7% on Fri. Market consensus for retail sales is a 0.40% increase vs the previous release of 0.80%. We will hear from a number of Fed speakers, including NY Fed Pres Dudley on Thurs.

Deutsche Bank’s Jim Reid breaks down key events day by day:

• Monday: November factory orders will be out as this note hits inboxes. Then we get a range of confidence indicators for the Eurozone, including the January Sentix investor confidence along with the December economic, consumer and business confidence stats. Elsewhere, the Eurozone’s retail sales and the UK’s December Halifax house price index are due. Over in the US, the November consumer credit numbers are also due. Onto other events, the Fed’s Williams and Rosengren speak at an Inflation targeting conference, while the Fed’s Bostic will also speak on monetary policy and the US economic outlook. Elsewhere, France’s President Macron arrives in China today for a three day state visit.
• Tuesday: The November unemployment rate for the Eurozone and Italy are due, along with Germany’s IP. Then the trade and current account balance stats for France and Germany are also due. Over in the US, there is the December NFIB small business optimism index and JOLTS job openings. Onto other events, the Fed’s Kashkari speaks at a moderated panel. Elsewhere, North and South Korean delegates will meet for the first time since 2015.
• Wednesday: In early morning, China’s December CPI and PPI are due. The November IP and manufacturing production for the UK and France are also due, followed by the UK’s November trade balance. Over in the US, there is the November wholesale inventories along with December stats on exports and imports. Onto other events, the Fed’s Evans discusses the economy and policy outlook. Elsewhere, the US Chamber of Commerce CEO Donohue will deliver his annual address and the South Korean President will host a New Year’s news conference.
• Thursday: The Eurozone’s November IP and Italy’s retail sales are due, along with the December reading for the Bank of France industrial sentiment index. Over in the US, there is the December PPI as well as the weekly initial jobless and continuing claims. Onto other events, the minutes for the ECB December meeting will be out and the Fed’s Dudley will speak on the US economic outlook. Elsewhere, the BOE will publish its 4Q credit conditions survey and China begins a three-day annual meeting to set the agenda for its anti-corruption work in 2018.
• Friday: Japan’s outright buying of foreign bonds and China’s December current account balance along with imports and exports stats will be out in early morning. In Europe, Italy’s November IP and the final reading of France’s December CPI are due. Over in the US, there is the December CPI and retail sales along with the November business inventories. Onto other events, the Bundesbank’s Weidmann and the Fed’s Rosengren will speak.  Elsewhere, Wells Fargo, JP Morgan and Blackrock will release its results.

Finally, here is Goldman’s take on just the US, together with consensus forecasts: The key economic releases next week are CPI and retail sales on Friday. There are several scheduled speaking engagements by Fed officials this week.

Monday, January 8

• 12:40 PM Atlanta Fed President Bostic (FOMC voter) speaks: Atlanta Fed President Bostic will give a speech on the U.S. economic outlook and monetary policy to the Rotary Club of Atlanta. Audience and media Q&A is expected.
• 01:35 PM San Francisco Fed President Williams (FOMC voter) speaks: San Francisco Fed President Williams will participate in a panel discussion on the topic “Should the Fed stick with the 2 percent inflation target or rethink it?” at the Brookings Institution in Washington D.C.
• 03:00 PM Consumer credit, November (consensus +$17.8bn, last +$20.5bn)
• 04:00 PM Boston Fed President Rosengren (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Boston Fed President Rosengren will take part in a panel titled “Next steps: Learning from the Bank of Canada” at the Brookings Institution in Washington D.C.

Tuesday, January 9

• 06:00 AM NFIB small business optimism index, December (consensus 108.3, last 107.5)
• 09:00 AM Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari will take part in a moderated Q&A session at Cargill Headquarters in Wayzata, Minnesota. Audience Q&A is expected.
• 10:00 AM JOLTS job openings, November (last 5,996k)

Wednesday, January 10

• 08:30 AM Import price index, December (consensus +0.4%, last +0.7%)
• 09:00 AM Chicago Fed President Evans (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Chicago Fed President Evans will discuss the economic and monetary policy outlook at a breakfast event hosted by the Lake-Forest-Lake Bluff Rotary Club.
• 09:10 AM Dallas Fed President Kaplan (FOMC non-voter): Dallas Fed President Kaplan will participate in a moderated Q&A session. Audience and media Q&A is expected.10:00 AM Wholesale inventories, November final (consensus +0.7%, last +0.7%)
• 01:30 PM St. Louis Fed President Bullard (FOMC non-voter) speaks: St. Louis Fed President Bullard will give a speech on the US economic outlook at the Missouri Athletic Club in St. Louis.

Thursday, January 11

• 08:30 AM PPI final demand, December (GS +0.2%, consensus +0.2%, last +0.4%); PPI ex-food and energy, December (GS +0.1%, consensus +0.2%, last +0.3%); PPI ex-food, energy, and trade, December (GS +0.2%, consensus +0.2%, last +0.4%): We estimate a 0.2% increase in headline PPI in December, reflecting an uptick in gasoline prices. We expect a smaller 0.1% increase in in the PPI ex-food, energy, and trade services category. In the November report, the producer price index firmed more than expected, reflecting firmness in core measures, particularly in upstream input prices.
• 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended January 6 (GS 250k, consensus 248k, last 250k); Continuing jobless claims, week ended December 30 (consensus 1,920k, last 1,914k): We estimate initial jobless claims were unchanged at 250k in the week ended January 6, reflecting elevated claims in Puerto Rico and a possible boost from end-of-year seasonal volatility. Continuing claims – the number of persons receiving benefits through standard programs –appear to have stabilized after rebounding in November and early December.
• 02:00 PM Monthly budget statement, December (consensus-$49.0bn, last -$138.5bn)
• 03:30 PM New York Fed President Dudley (FOMC voter) speaks: New York Fed President Dudley will give a speech on the U.S. economic outlook at an event hosted by the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association event. Audience and media Q&A is expected.

Friday, January 12

• 8:30 AM CPI (mom), December (GS +0.17%, consensus +0.2%, last +0.39%); Core CPI (mom), December (GS +0.22%, consensus +0.2%, last +0.12%); CPI (yoy), December (GS +2.11%, consensus +2.1%, last +2.2%); Core CPI (yoy), December (GS +1.71%, consensus +1.7%, last +1.7%): We estimate a 0.22% increase in December core CPI (mom sa), which would leave the year-over-year rate unchanged at +1.7%. Our forecast reflects additional post-hurricane strength in used car prices, a rebound in lodging away from home, and a possible rebound in airfares. On the negative side, we expect imputed utilities costs to continue to weigh on the owners’ equivalent rent category. We estimate a 0.17% increase in headline CPI, reflecting higher food quotes but mixed consumer energy prices in December.
• 08:30 AM Retail sales, December (GS +0.5%, consensus +0.5%, last +0.8%); Retail sales ex-auto, December (GS +0.4%, consensus +0.3%, last +1.0%); Retail sales ex-auto & gas, December (GS +0.4%, consensus +0.5%, last +0.8%); Core retail sales, December (GS +0.4%, consensus +0.4%, last +0.8%): We estimate core retail sales (ex-autos, gasoline, and building materials) rose at a firm 0.4% pace in December, reflecting indications of a solid end to the holiday shopping season. However, we also expect a partial reversal of the boost from the iPhone launch in last month’s report (iPhone X on November 3). Given the further rise in (sa) gasoline prices and the modest uptick in auto SAAR, we estimate 0.4% and 0.5% respective increases in the ex-auto and headline measures.
• 10:00 AM Business inventories, November (consensus +0.4%, last -0.1%)
• 04:15 PM Boston Fed President Rosengren (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Boston Fed President Rosengren will give the keynote speech at a conference on “Money, Models, and Digital Innovation” at the University of California San Diego. Audience Q&A is expected.

Source: SocGen, BofA, Deutsche, Goldman

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Steve Bannon’s apparent olive-branch-offering over the weekend has reportedly been snubbed by an angry President Trump who exclaimed: you’re either with Bannon, or with me.

As we reported previously, perhaps in an attempt to salvage his political (or any) career, Bannon issued a statement praising Donald Trump Jr. (who he repeatedly mocked and disparaged in Wolff’s book) saying his negative comments were aimed at Paul Manafort, who has already been indicted by the Mueller investigation.

“Donald Trump, Jr. is both a patriot and a good man. He has been relentless in his advocacy for his father and the agenda that has helped turn our country around.”

“My support is also unwavering for the president and his agenda — as I have shown daily in my national radio broadcasts, on the pages of Breitbart News and in speeches and appearances from Tokyo and Hong Kong to Arizona and Alabama.”

“President Trump was the only candidate that could have taken on and defeated the Clinton apparatus. I am the only person to date to conduct a global effort to preach the message of Trump and Trumpism; and remain ready to stand in the breech for this president’s efforts to make America great again.”

“My comments about the meeting with Russian nationals came from my life experiences as a Naval officer stationed aboard a destroyer whose main mission was to hunt Soviet submarines to my time at the Pentagon during the Reagan years when our focus was the defeat of ‘the evil empire’ and to making films about Reagan’s war against the Soviets and Hillary Clinton’s involvement in selling uranium to them.”

“My comments were aimed at Paul Manafort, a seasoned campaign professional with experience and knowledge of how the Russians operate. He should have known they are duplicitous, cunning and not our friends. To reiterate, those comments were not aimed at Don Jr.”

“Everything I have to say about the ridiculous nature of the Russian ‘collusion’ investigation I said on my 60 Minutes interview. There was no collusion and the investigation is a witch hunt.”

“I regret that my delay in responding to the inaccurate reporting regarding Don Jr has diverted attention from the president’s historical accomplishments in the first year of his presidency.”

Wolff refuted Bannon’s statement in an interview with MSNBC Monday, saying that Sunday’s statement from Bannon does not reflect what he said at the time. “It was not directed at Manafort, it was directed directly at Don Jr.,” Wolff said.

But, as Bloomberg reports, it is too little too late for a furious president, as aides describe the president demanding a stark choice from supporters of both men: you’re either with Bannon, or with me.

Trump’s aides are tracking who came out with full-throated criticism of Bannon over the weekend, and they put out the word that the president is keeping score.

One person who was judged as being insufficiently critical of Bannon was David Bossie, president of Citizens United. On Friday night, Bossie came out with a forceful condemnation of Bannon, his longtime friend, in an op-ed in the Washington Post.

While I can’t know for sure whether Bannon said all of the outrageous things that Wolff alleges, he publicly stated this week that he wants Trump and his “America first” agenda to succeed.

Make no mistake, from the beginning, long before the campaign officially began, Trump himself decided on the agenda to Make America Great Again and he has worked to make his agenda a reality.

That goal is shared by all of us who work for and support Trump and by the 60-million-plus Americans who voted for him. Over the past year, Trump has enacted historic reforms that are making America safe and prosperous again. Bannon should clear the air so that we can all get back to the business of Making America Great Again.

Bannon may have hoped his statement would begin to put the episode behind him – A half dozen sources describe almost the exact opposite:

Trump remains angry at the disloyalty of his former strategist, and is forcing a him-or-me moment inside Trump World and the Republican Party as a whole.

“I don’t know if it’s ever repairable,” said Matt Schlapp, the chairman of the American Conservative Union, who has been friends with Bannon for two decades.

“These wounds are pretty deep.”

The implications for Trump’s agenda are stark according to Bloomberg: at a moment when he needs maximum coordination to push through infrastructure, welfare reform and funding for the U.S.-Mexico border wall, he’s at war with the leader of the party’s activist base — the very voters who propelled Trump to the White House in 2016.

Fred Brown, a crisis communications strategist and former GOP spokesman: “The fact that Bannon was dumb enough to make people choose between him and the president shows he has a more delusional opinion of himself than even Trump does.”

Finally, putting another nail in the coffin of the Bannon/Trump relationship, Wolff said today that  “I like Steve, I’m grateful” for the time and insights he gave him for the book.

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• At Golden Globes, Causes Outshine Celebrities (WSJ)
• Equity Euphoria Grips the Entire World (BBG)
• Pimco, Citigroup Sound Complacency Alarm on Global Economy (BBG)
• Improving Economy Sparks Rebound In Inflation Bets (WSJ)
• U.S. offers drillers nearly all offshore waters, but focus is on eastern Gulf (Reuters)
• Intel CEO’s Stock Sale ‘Unusual,’ Private Securities Experts Say (WSJ)
• ‘It Can’t Be True.’ Inside the Semiconductor Industry’s Meltdown (BBG)
• Pentagon, diplomats to play bigger role on arms sales (Reuters)
• In jab at hardliners, Rouhani says Iran protests were not only economic (Reuters)
• North and South Korea Prepare for Talks (WSJ)
• Once-Hungry Investors Pass on Meal-Kit Startups (WSJ)
• U.S. bank gains from tax law start with red ink (Reuters)
• U.S. military helicopter makes emergency landing at Japanese hotel (Reuters)
• Pfizer ends research for new Alzheimer’s, Parkinson’s drugs (Reuters)
• In possible boon for White House, Fed ready to lay low as tax plan kicks in (Reuters)

Overnight Media Digest

WSJ

– Celgene Corp agreed to buy blood-disease biotechnology company Impact Biomedicines for as much as $7 billion. on.wsj.com/2mcQs6E

– Jana Partners LLC and the California State Teachers’ Retirement System, or Calstrs, which control about $2 billion of Apple Inc shares, sent a letter to Apple on Saturday urging it to develop new software tools that would help parents control and limit phone use more easily and to study the impact of overuse on mental health. on.wsj.com/2maeGi6

– “Star Wars: The Last Jedi” opened to a soft $28.7 million in China this weekend, less than the prior two installments in the series. on.wsj.com/2mdnKCL

FT

Airbus was offering an industrial partnership on the A380 with China if Chinese airlines place orders for the company’s jet, whose future is in doubt unless it wins new customers.

The growth of Royal Dutch Shell’s oil and gas operations in the next decade will depend on shale production, Chief Executive Ben van Beurden told the Financial Times, in the latest sign of western energy groups pinning their hopes for expansion on those “unconventional” resources.

PwC has launched a UK drones team as the company looks to increase demand from investors, local authorities and companies for real-time data that can be more easily obtained by unmanned flight systems than by humans.

BBC China editor Carrie Gracie resigned from her position after learning that the broadcasting company operates a “secretive and illegal pay culture” that systematically discriminates against women. Gracie learned that two of her male peers were paid significantly more. She accused her bosses of taking a “divide-and-rule” approach to female staff in an open letter published online late on Sunday.

NYT

– Intel Corp and its chief executive, Brian Krzanich, are in the hot seat over Meltdown and Spectre, two chip security issues that were disclosed last week. The company said it has quietly marshaled a coalition of software, hardware and cloud services to develop and deploy programming tweaks that are designed to close most of the security gaps. nyti.ms/2AFwohG

– Jared Kushner’s family real estate company received a roughly $30 million investment from Menora Mivtachim, an insurer that is one of Israel’s largest financial institutions, according to a Menora executive. The deal, which was not made public, took place shortly before Jared Kushner accompanied U.S. President Trump, on the pair’s first diplomatic trip to Israel. nyti.ms/2ADGP5u

– Carrie Gracie, a senior editor for BBC News accused the network in an open letter on Sunday of operating a “secretive and illegal” salary system that pays men more than women in similar positions. nyti.ms/2CT6gGk

Canada

THE GLOBE AND MAIL
** Eight American senators have joined a campaign by politicians and publishers to tout the virtues of U.S. community newspapers as the Department of Commerce prepares to announce its decision Tuesday on whether to impose countervailing duties against Canadian newsprint. bit.ly/2CT2RXI

** Lithuania is urging Canada to sign on to a long-term package of support for Ukraine that would funnel more investment into the Eastern European country and strengthen its ties with the West as Kiev struggles to fight internal corruption and rebuild its economy despite a war with Moscow-backed militants. tgam.ca/2AEI8Bh

** The latest Public Health Agency of Canada FluWatch report shows influenza activity keeps rising, hitting those 65 and older the hardest and causing outbreaks primarily at long-term-care facilities. More than 1,000 hospitalizations have been reported, and at least 34 people have died, the report says. tgam.ca/2qDx5bB

NATIONAL POST
** A Toronto anti-abortion group is alleging in federal court that the government is violating its rights by requiring it to endorse reproductive rights in order to access a grant for hiring summer students. bit.ly/2qwCEZh

Britain

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An FBI probe into a 2010 property deal orchestrated by Jane Sanders, wife of Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT), has escalated after a report by VTDIGGER reveals that a grand jury has been empaneled, and at least one witness has given sworn testimony in the case. 

Jane and Bernie Sanders

According to VTDigger, “Former Burlington College board member Robin Lloyd says she testified for about an hour on Oct. 26 before a grand jury at the federal courthouse in Burlington.”

Paul Van de Graaf, chief of the criminal division for the U.S. attorneys office in Vermont, questioned Lloyd about her role as the development chair of the colleges board of trustees during a period when Sanders was collecting donations and pledges for the purchase of a $10 million city lakefront property. –VTDigger

The Grand Jury will decide whether or not indictments should be handed down over a $10 million loan orchestrated by Jane Sanders purchase a 33 acre property for the now defunct Burlington College – allegedly obtained through a ‘fraudulent scheme.’ Mrs. Sanders is accused of having lied about funding for transaction, while the FBI has also been looking into claims that Bernie Sanders’ office pressured the bank to approve the loan. 

Burlington College 33-acre property

In June 2017, Politico confirmed that Bernie Sanders and his wife Jane had retained high powered DC lawyers amidst the investigation.

The original request for an investigation into Federal bank fraud was sent in a January 2016 letter to the Vermont District Attorney as well as the FDIC by Brady Toensing – an attorney and chair of Donald Trump’s Vermont campaign. The letter detailed the mechanics of the alleged fraud, which is what reportedly launched official investigations. Toensing told Politico on in June; “The investigation was started more than a year ago under President Obama, his Attorney General Loretta Lynch, and his United States Attorney, all of whom are Democrats.”

A brief history of Jane Sanders and Burlington College

In 2004, Jane Sanders left her position as her husband’s congressional chief of staff to become president of the unaccredited and struggling Burlington College – founded in 1972 and operated out of a former grocery store. When Sanders took over as a “turnaround” president, she set out to rapidly grow the college – announcing a $6 million plan to expand the campus in 2006 which never came to fruition.

Meanwhile, Sanders was rapidly earning a reputation for her “toxic and disruptive” leadership style, and in late 2008, according to a 2016 essay on the college written by a former teacher Greg Guma, “Nearly half of the students and faculty members signed a petition demanding a meeting about the “Crisis in leadership,” while Jane Sanders’ salary rose to $150,000 in 2009 amidst a tuition hike from $5,000 to $22,407 in 2011. Meanwhile, enrollment dropped by almost 25%.

In 2008, literature professor Genese Grill wrote to the school’s academic affairs committee, describing Sanders’ “harassment and unethical treatment of other faculty and staff members, many of whom have since left the college disgruntled and angry.”

And in 2010, Jane Sanders announced a plan to move the tiny underfunded Burlington college onto a 33 acre parcel of valuable lakefront real estate in Northern Burlington. “It was the last piece of undeveloped, prime property on the lake shore,” according to Guma.

The property was owned by the Roman Catholic Diocese, which was strapped for cash after recently settling over two dozen sexual abuse lawsuits for $17.76 million. The 33 acre property hit the market for $12.5 million, and the church agreed to take Jane Sanders’ offer of $10 million.

Scheming for loans

When Jane Sanders made the offer to the Roman Catholic Diocese, Burlington College was nearly broke – with an annual budget just below $4 million. In order to finance the property, Sanders secured a $6.5 million loan from People’s United Bank in the form of a tax exempt bond purchase, and the Catholic Church agreed to carry a $3.65 million second mortgage on the property. Sanders told both institutions that Burlington college had $5 million in likely donor pledges and $2.4 million in confirmed pledges to be used to pay off the debt.

Unfortunately, that was just for the land. Sanders apparently didn’t plan for the $6 million or so required to actually build out the campus on the property to include green space, athletic fields, lecture halls, and walkways. 

Compounding an already dire situation, Sanders’ original claim of $2.4 million in confirmed donor pledges was quickly reduced to $1.2 million according to documents filed in the first fiscal year after the purchase – yet in records obtained by VTDigger, Burlington College received only $279,000. Despite hopes by Sanders and college trustees that they could boost enrollment and expand the student body, nothing changed – and the school failed at raising the money to satisfy it’s loans.

And then Jane Sanders was fired, with a $200,000 severance package.

In order to try and avoid bankruptcy, Burlington college sold off pieces of the 33 acre property to a local developer – which allowed the institution to pay off some of the debt Jane Sanders had accumulated, however in April 2016 the bank called it’s loan – and on May 28th, the college closed it’s doors after 44 years in operation.

As part of its bankruptcy, the Roman Catholic Diocese of Burlington lost at least $1.5 million and perhaps as much as $2 million on the $3.65 million loan.

Enter the FBI

Politico revealed in their June report that [F]ederal investigators and FBI agents started to pull apart the $10 million financial arrangement. They showed up at Burlington College to sift through hard drives, audit reports and spreadsheets. They began to interview donors, board members and past president Carol Moore. I was contacted and spoke with an FBI agent numerous times last spring, again last summer, Moore told Vermont Public Radio in May 2017, and recently, maybe a month ago.

With a Grand Jury now empaneled and interviewing witnesses in the Burlington College saga, one can imagine the outcome of their investigation will largely determine whether Bernie Sanders is a viable candidate in 2020, should he wish to challenge Oprah Winfrey of course.

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With Donald Trump yet to tweet, one of the bigger political stories in the interim this morning is whether 2020 will see president Donald Trump replaced by president Oprah Winfrey. It all started with a surprising tweet by NBC: “Nothing but respect for OUR future president. #GoldenGlobes”

Nothing but respect for OUR future president. #GoldenGlobes http://pic.twitter.com/h4hkjewu0K

— NBC (@nbc) January 8, 2018

To be sure, speculation about Oprah may be running is not new per se, and was certainly prompted by the Trump victory.

Prediction: If Trump wins, Dems will nominate Oprah in 2020. Takeaway will be that celebrity trumps all, and @KimKardashian is too young.

— Dan Primack (@danprimack) July 22, 2016

However, minutes after giving a rousing speech at the Golden Globes Awards that promised “a new day” for women, minorities and the downtrodden…

… Oprah Winfrey said she has no ambitions to run for president. In a brief interview backstage at the event, Winfrey was told that “Oprah 2020” was circulating on Twitter, and asked whether she planned to run. “I don’t — I don’t,” the 63-year-old billionaire told Bloomberg.

By then, however, the drumbeat was well underway according to Bloomberg.

“She. Is. Running,” said John Podhoretz, editor of Commentary magazine. “Oprah. 2020,” said Shaun King, the Black Lives Matter activist. The host of the Golden Globes, late-night comedian Seth Meyers, jokingly urged Winfrey to run in his opening monologue, noting that President Donald Trump had reportedly decided to make his bid for the office after he was the butt of Meyers’s jokes at the White House Correspondents Dinner in 2011.

In her speech, Winfrey, worth ~$3.6Bn, made references to the sexual harassment scandal in Hollywood and marked the recent death of Recy Taylor, whose sexual assault in 1944 became a focal point for civil rights activists, in her speech to accept the Cecil B. DeMille award for lifetime achievement.

“I want all the girls watching here, now, to know that a new day is on the horizon!” Winfrey said. “And when that new day finally dawns, it will be because of a lot of magnificent women, many of whom are right here in this room tonight, and some pretty phenomenal men, fighting hard to make sure that they become the leaders who take us to the time when nobody ever has to say, ‘Me too’ again.”

Still, even with Winfrey’s denial to Bloomberg, the speculation is likely to continue.

“It’s up to the people,” Winfrey’s longtime partner, Stedman Graham, told the Los Angeles Times on Sunday when asked about a presidential run. “She would absolutely do it.”

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As Fox News and Bloomberg  pointed out today, since returning from their holiday break last week, Congress has been bracing for a “political bomb cyclone” as a series of high-profile confrontations loom regarding the future of DACA protections and Republicans’ ability to keep the federal government operational.

According to Bloomberg, Republicans and Democrats in Congress are once again far apart on a government spending bill with less than two weeks to go before a partial shutdown. They also need to come to an agreement on an immigration package that will preserve protections for undocumented immigrants who were brought to the US as children while also probably allocating some money to Trump’s border wall. The continuing resolution passed shortly before holiday break expires on Jan. 19. And what’s worse for Republicans, Alabama Sen. Doug Jones has taken his seat, paring the GOP’s Senate majority to just one vote. Realistically, Republican and Democratic leaders need to hash out a solution this week, so they can bring the bills to the floor next week.

But these aren’t the only issues. Increasing spending for the Pentagon, reauthorizing (or killing) a controversial surveillance program, providing permanent provisions for a popular children’s health-insurance program, putting in place some stopgap to keep Obamacare from collapsing, disaster-relief funding and a two-year agreement to raise budget caps.

As always, the threat of a shutdown is ever-present, as Republicans defy Democrats to take a stand on DACA. Meanwhile, the question of whether Democrats will allow another continuing resolution to pass without first securing DACA protections remains an open one.

“If the Democrats want to shut down the government because they can’t get amnesty for illegal immigrants, then they’re going to have to defend those actions to the American people,” Republican Senator Tom Cotton of Arkansas said Sunday on ABC’s “This Week” program.

If both parties can agree this week on raising budget limits, Congress may be able to pass a short-term spending bill, known as a continuing resolution, said Muftiah McCartin, a former spending panel staff member for House Democrats and now at Covington & Burling LLP.

“If they don’t get a deal, will the Democrats allow another CR to go forward? I’d kind of be surprised,” McCartin said.

Trump has insisted that money to begin construction on his signature border wall be included in any bill authorizing DACA.
“We want the wall,” Trump said Saturday at Camp David. “The wall is going to happen or we’re not going to have DACA.”

Top congressional leaders from both political parties huddled last Wednesday in the office of House Speaker Paul Ryan, with White House budget Director Mick Mulvaney and White House Director of Legislative Affairs Marc Short. Everyone spoke in positive terms following the conclave.

“All those talks, I think, are going well,” said Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, “Nobody wants to shut the government down on either side. We’re in intense talks about trying to deal with all of these issues.”

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, and House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, said in a joint statement following the hour-long session: “We had a positive and productive meeting, and all parties have agreed to continue discussing a path forward to quickly resolve all of the issues ahead of us.”

As Fox  points out, the biggest issue will be the battle over immigration policy, as Republicans push for the construction of a border wall and Democrats a fix for DACA. DACA is a President Barack Obama-era policy that granted some persons the right to remain in the US legally if they arrived as minors with parents.

The White House last week asked for $18 billion as the administration braces for the upcoming battle over US immigration policy. The money would be used to build 700 miles of new and replacement barrier along the southern border over the coming decade.

But funding isn’t the only issue that’s important to Trump. During a weekend summit with GOP Congressional leaders, Trump said he wants Congress to work out a solution to “chain” migration for family members entering the US while eliminating a diversity lottery system.

Of course, the battle over DACA was widely expected. Mitch McConnell said late last year that DACA would be a major legislative issue in the new year as Republicans engage in the latest installment of political brinksmanship over funding the federal government.

Trump reiterated his sympathy for the Dreamers, and told Fox “we all want DACA to happen.” But he added that “we also want great security for our country.”

“We have a commitment on a bipartisan basis to address the DACA issue,” McConnell said. “We’ll devote floor time to that in January.”

As of now, North Carolina Sen. Thom Tillis said the plan is to keep the immigration package separate from the government spending bill.

Expect to hear more about where negotiations are heading after a mid-week meeting between Republican and Democratic leaders.

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Described as a PR exercise by Labour (somewhat obvious in this day and age of politics, and spin), Theresa May will conduct a cabinet reshuffle which should see around a quarter of ministers ‘moved on’ to make way for fresh blood and inject some life into the government, clearly suffering in the polls due to frustration over the Brexit process as well as key issues domestically such as NHS funding.  

#BREAKING British PM Theresa May begins cabinet reshuffle by naming new party chairman

— AFP news agency (@AFP) January 8, 2018

There are clear safe ‘seats’ in the process; Chancellor Hammond will likely remain where he is, as will David Davis in his post as Brexit minister – indeed he is set to receive some help from the introduction of a ‘No-Deal’ minister (that is how it has been branded) who will be responsible for covering all bases should EU negotiations fall flat. The official will have all privilege bar the rank of secretary of state. Hard line Brexiteers will naturally be appeased. Foreign secretary Boris Johnson is also expected to hold onto his position, as is Amber Rudd as Home Sec. 

So who is out? 

May’s

deputy Damian Green was sacked before the Christmas period, and is tipped to be replaced by Jeremy Hunt who will vacate the Health department. Patrick McLoughlin is also expected to be replaced as Tory Chairman; he a minister stretching back to the Thatcher era when he won the Wolverhampton East seat in the 1983 general election.  He was Transport Sec in 2012, moving to chairman in 2016.

Other members of the Cabinet in the line of fire are Justine Greening as Education Sec and Greg Clark in charge of Business, but these are down to conjecture at this point.  

The Prime Minister is looking to promote some of younger members of the party, and those from the fresh intake of MPs from 2015, with a focus on promoting women as well as ethnic minorities in order to refresh and clear out some of the old guard.

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