Prosperity = Abundant Work + Low Cost Of Living

Submitted by Charles Hugh-Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,

An economy that only serves the prosperity of the protected top 5% is an economy doomed to rising inequality, stagnation and widespread social discontent.

If we seek a coherent context for the new year, we would do well to start with the foundations of widespread prosperity. While the economy is a vast, complex machine, the sources of widespread prosperity are not that complicated: abundant work and a low cost of living.

When work is abundant, there are opportunities for many skill levels, and employers must bid for the most productive, reliable workers. This supports wages and widespread employment.

When the cost of living is low, even low-wage households can not only get by but put a little aside if they are prudent and thrifty.

This may seem obvious, but the conditions required for work to be abundant and the cost of living to be low are not so obvious. For work to be abundant, it must be easy to start a business, easy to operate the new business, easy to make a profit so the business can survive the first few years and easy to hire employees.

All these factors require an environment of low-cost compliance with regulations, low tax rates, low costs of transactions, reasonable transport costs, reasonable cost of money (but not near-zero), reasonable availability of capital for small enterprises, local and national governments that actively seek to smooth the path of new enterprises and existing enterprises seeking to expand, and a transparent marketplace that isn't dominated by politically dominant cartels and subservient-to-cartels government agencies.

This matters because the number one cause of the high cost of living is artificial scarcity created and maintained by monopolies, cartels, and the government that serves their interests. Artificial scarcity imposed by cartels and a servile state is the primary cause of soaring costs in a variety of sectors.

There are many factors that generate artificial scarcity: regulatory capture/ regulatory moats designed to protect cartels and monopolies from competition, a lack of affordable capital available to small enterprises, thickets of regulations that don't really serve the public interest, educational institutions that don't teach the fundamentals of entrepreneurism and how to start and operate a small business, and so on.

Real-world limits also impose costs. Energy costs are rising for a variety of structural reasons; the easy-to-extract oil has been extracted, the full lifecycle costs of alternative energy sources remain substantial (maintenance is not free for the 20 year lifespan of the windmill/solar array, for example) and so on.

Land for new housing is scarce in many cities, and that imposes scarcity costs as various entities compete for the scarce resource (land).

If we look at eras of widespread prosperity, we find that work is abundant, private enterprises and trade are vibrant, the currency is stable, the cost of doing business is low, inflation and the cost of living are low, so even low-wage households can slowly improve their lot.

This doesn't just describe America in the 1950s and 1960s–it also describes the Tang Dynasty in 700 A.D. China and the Byzantine Empire in its heyday. These are the core dynamics of economies throughout history that generate and distribute widespread prosperity and opportunity.

Prosperity is limited to the few at the top when the cost of living soars. When wages for the bottom 95% stagnate while the cost of living (housing, healthcare, college, taxes, etc.) soars, the bottom 95% become poorer–though borrowing money masks this reality for a time.

Economies stagnate when the few at the top limit competition, not just for customers but for capital and political power. Economies designed to maintain an exploitive elite and its servile class of technocrat factotums become sclerotic and unproductive, as the unearned privileges of the few act as a crippling tax on the entire economy. (See Inequality and the Collapse of Privilege and Why Our Status Quo Failed and Is Beyond Reform for more on this.)

No wonder inequality is rising: the only possible output of an economy devoted to artificial scarcity and maintaining the privileges of the few at the expense of the many is rising inequality and stagnation.

We can do better, but only if we discern the systemic reasons why wages are stagnating, small business is in decline and the rich get richer while everyone else gets poorer.

An economy that only serves the prosperity of the protected top 5% is an economy doomed to rising inequality, stagnation and widespread social discontent:

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Trump Believes Assange, Schumer Promises Payback Over SCOTUS Pick, Huckabee Doesn’t Think Israel is Occupying the West Bank: A.M. Links

  • I believe Julian.President-elect Donald Trump says he believes WikiLeaks’ Julian Assange’s claim that the Russian government was not the source of the leaked DNC emails.
  • Sen. Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) has promised to make things difficult for any Supreme Court nominee Trump puts forth.
  • Fmr. Gov. Mike Huckabee (R-Ak.) rejects the idea that Israel is occupying the West Bank, saying “There is no such thing as a West Bank…There’s no such thing as an occupation.”
  • A North Carolina female high school student was brutally slammed to the ground by a school resource officer. The incident was captured on video, the girl was reportedly trying to break up a fight between two other girls.
  • Mariah Carey is blaming Dick Clark Productions for her disastrous New Year’s Eve performance, even though Carey reportedly declined to do a soundcheck beforehand.
  • Notorious mass murderer and erstwhile cult leader Charles Manson is “seriously ill.”

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Wikileaks Offers $20,000 Reward For Info On Obama Admin Destroying Records

WikiLeaks is offering a $20,000 reward to anyone who exposes the destruction of “significant records” by a member of the Obama administration. In a tweet on Tuesday evening, Wikileaks said “We are issuing a US$20,000 reward for information leading to the arrest or exposure of any Obama admin agent destroying significant records,” however, it has not explicitly alleged that the administration is suspected of inappropriately eradicating material.

 

The surprising announcement may have been provoked by a previous tweeted in which Wikileaks hinted that the US government is quietly eradicating mentions of the organization from official statements: “‘WikiLeaks’ disappears from US govt statements. Compare 7 Oct  2016, vs 16 December, 2016 & December 29, 2016 JAR”

 

Ten minutes prior to offering the reward, WikiLeaks urged any system administrator working under Obama to become whistleblowers: “System admins: Don’t let the White House destroy US history again! Copy now, then send to WikiLeaks at your leisure.”

Embedded in the tweet was a screenshot of a 2009 email sent from Principal Deputy Counsel for the Obama administration Daniel Meltzer to James Messina, then-White House deputy chief of staff. The mail discusses a query from the National Archives as to the whereabouts of a missing and believed stolen two terabyte drive containing electronic records from the Bill Clinton administration. The email was forwarded to Hillary Clinton by aide Cheryl Mills.

As RT adds, Republicans have also run into trouble over their lack of preservation of administration emails. The George W Bush administration lost millions of emails in the lead-up to the war in Iraq, claiming they had been accidentally mislabeled. The messages were later recovered. Federal Law calls for the preservation of presidential records, however personal records are exempt.

The tweets were issued just hours before the airing of the full Sean Hannity interview with Julian Assange, which is already the topic of at least two Trump tweets, as noted earlier. In the first tweet, Trump sided with Assange’s side of the story that Russia was not involved in the hacking of the DNC, as follows “Julian Assange said “a 14 year old could have hacked Podesta” – why was DNC so careless? Also said Russians did not give him the info!” In a follow up tweet, Trump quoted Assange in bashing the US press: “Julian Assange on U.S. media coverage: “It’s very dishonest.” http://pic.twitter.com/ADcPRQifH9” More dishonest than anyone knows.”

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Goldman-Affiliated Wall Street Lawyer Is Trump’s Top Candidate For SEC Chair

Donald Trump is preparing to appoint another Wall Street proxy to the top Wall Street regulation, supervision and enforcement post. 

According to the WSJ, Wall Street M&A and IPO lawyer, Jay Clayton, is Trump’s leading candidate to become chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission and could be announced as the nominee as soon as Wednesday.

Clayton, who met with Mr. Trump on Dec. 22, is a partner at Sullivan & Cromwell LLP, where he also worked on the 2014 IPO of Alibaba Group. His clients have included Goldman Sachs and Barclays Capital; he would succeed SEC Chairman Mary Jo White, another lawyer with a history of representing Wall Street banks before becoming a regulator. Clayton has spent his career working on the kinds of securities deals that the SEC has a hand in regulating.

Among his various listed deals are the following:

  • Ally Financial Inc. in the $4.2 billion sale of its operations in Europe and Latin America to General Motors (GM), as well as in the $4.1 billion sale of its Canadian auto finance business to the Royal Bank of
  • Barclays Capital in connection with its purchase of assets of Lehman Brothers out of bankruptcy
  • Goldman Sachs in connection with the investment of $5 billion by Berkshire Hathaway and the U.S. Treasury’s TARP Investment
  • Bear Stearns in connection with the sale of Bear Stearns to JPMorgan Chase and related matters
  • Goldman Sachs and affiliated funds in connection with various acquisitions and investments in companies involved in financial services, banking, telecom and other industries
  • Initial public offering of $25 billion by Alibaba Group Holding Limited
  • Initial public offering of $190 million by Moelis & Company
  • Initial public offering of $2.375 billion by Ally Financial and private placements of $3 billion and $1.3 billion of common stock in Ally Financial
  • Initial public offering of $230 million by Blackhawk Network Holdings
  • Initial public offering and multiple public and private offerings of equity, preferred and debt securities of Capital Product Partners L.P.
  • Initial public offering of $380 million by Oaktree Capital Group

As noted in the list above, Clayton represented Goldman when it received a $5 billion investment from billionaire Warren Buffett’s company during the peak of the credit crisis in September 2008. He’s also represented Goldman in connection with other investments and acquisitions, according to the law firm. Sullivan is a key outside legal adviser for Goldman and is more closely associated with Wall Street than perhaps any other law firm.

Clayton has a wide-ranging corporate practice spanning mergers and acquisitions, IPOs, corporate governance, and investment advice for high-net-worth families. Other matters that Mr. Clayton has worked on include advising Morgan Stanley on the sale of its physical oil-trading division and Bear Stearns on its sale to J.P. Morgan Chase & Co.—two deals shaped heavily by the financial crisis and its aftermath—and the 2014 IPO of Moelis & Co., a boutique advisory firm. He’s also represented an ownership group for the Atlanta Hawks and British Airways in its 2010 merger with Iberia.

Clayton would become the latest Trump appointee with longstanding Wall Street ties, joining former Goldman executive Steven Mnuchin, Mr. Trump’s choice for Treasury secretary; former Goldman President Gary Cohn, who will run the National Economic Council; and private-equity investor Wilbur Ross, the pick to head the Commerce Department.

As the WSJ notes, Clayton would take over the SEC at a time when congressional Republicans are pressuring the agency to loosen fundraising rules for smaller public companies, lighten its oversight of private-equity firms, and repeal executive-compensation rules opposed by corporations. He would be one of at least three new members to join the SEC this year. The agency has two unfilled commissioner posts in addition to the chairman’s role, which Ms. White will give up on Jan. 20.

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Bitcoin China Soars To Record High Amid Capital Control Concerns

While Yuan rallied following last night's trial ballon by the PBOC – when as reported overnight the PBOC was studying possible scenarios of yuan exchange rate and capital outflows in 2017 based on models, stress tests and field research, and is preparing contingency plans – Bitcoin in China soared to new record highs amid massive volumes.

It appears fears of crackdowns on "virtual" currency outflows – as described by China reserachers – is not there yet as the momentum-chasing Chinese have found a new friend as Commodities crumble.

 

In USD, Bitcoin remains just shy of record highs…

But as we noted earlier, for those buying into bitcoin here on the momentum, most of which originates in China, we urge readers to be cautious as by now the PBOC has certainly noticed that the digital currency remains one of the final, and most successful, means of bypassing capital controls in China. Should Beijing mandate that bitcoin no longer be a means to illegally transfer capital offshore, there is risk of a dramatic, and sharp, drop in its price.

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The Next Market Move is Going to Crush Consensus Thinkers… Buckle Up.

Here’s a chart your broker won’t show you.

The entire move in the S&P 500 since the November 8 election has been driven by the move in the $USD/Yen pair. As you can see, these two items (USD/YEN and S&P 500) are essentially the same trade.

“So what, who cares?”, you might be asking.

Everyone should care, because this trend is ending.

The USD/Yen currency pair is now at MASSIVE resistance. The odds of this trend continuing are now less than 20%.

Which means… this move will be reversing, and stocks will be dropping, HARD.

The last time this trend reversed was the early 2016 bloodbath during which stocks dropped 13% in the span of six weeks.

Another Crisis is brewing… the time to prepare is now.

If you've yet to take action to prepare for this, we offer a FREE investment report called the Prepare and Profit From the Next Financial Crisis that outlines simple, easy to follow strategies you can use to not only protect your portfolio from it, but actually produce profits.

We made 1,000 copies available for FREE the general public.

To pick up yours, swing by….

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Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

 

 

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Marine Le Pen Wants France Out Of The Euro, Will Redenominate French Debt In New Currency

French presidential candidate and National Front leader, Marine Le Pen, said she wants to take France out of the euro, reiterating comments made the day before, and – taking a page out of the Yanis Varoufakis Grexit negotiating strategy playbook – added she wants to redenominate French government debt in a new national currency.

“More and more European citizens realize their economies have been suffocated by the euro,” she told reporters on the sidelines of a press conference in Paris quoted by Bloomberg.

Additionally, following the British example. Le Pen said that before leaving the euro, she would hold a referendum on France’s relations with the European Union and has pledged to hold such a vote within six months of an election victory.

“A national currency could be linked to a common currency,” she added, without giving further details on the connection. She said she could see the EU setting up another currency like the ECU, or European Currency Unit, which the bloc used for internal accounting purposes before the euro was introduced in 1999.

As Politico noted overnight, the National Front chief has long called for “Frexit,” a French withdrawal from the European Union. This would happen after a referendum on EU membership if she was elected next May (Le Pen has suggested that she would step down if the French rejected her preferred outcome).

But this time she said that after a referendum, Europe should retain a common currency, the euro, in parallel to the French franc. It was the first time Le Pen had recognized, however implicitly, that withdrawing from the euro zone unilaterally could bring about currency fluctuations, which the ECU was designed to prevent. Most French voters do not support withdrawal from the European Union, according to polls in 2016.

“I want a national currency with the euro as a common currency,” Le Pen said on BFMTV. “What was the ECU [European Currency Unit]?” Well, among other things, it was a fixed-exchange rate precursor to the Euro, so that may not be the best option.

As Politico adds, the shift came as Le Pen launched her presidential campaign and unveiled a series of campaign proposals, including vows to retain France’s 35-hour legal working week, end birthright citizenship and rewrite the Constitution to slash the number of MPs.

On the euro, National Front cadres have repeatedly hinted that Le Pen could water down her position before the election. Brutal withdrawal from the euro zone is particularly unpopular with senior voters who want to protect their assets from currency fluctuations.

Still, Philippe Murer, Le Pen’s economic adviser, told POLITICO that her position on the currency had not changed fundamentally. A return to the ECU, a basket of European currencies that existed before the euro, was one of several options being studied in the event of a withdrawal from the Euro, he said. “With a return to the ECU, we could retain a trace of the euro,” said Murer, who is also Le Pen’s assistant at the European Parliament.

“We will only determine these questions after consulting the French people. The nation must be able to decide for itself.”

It may be a moot topic: having had a substantial lead in the polls earlier in 2016, according to more recent polls, Le Pen has found herself behind her primary challenger Francois Fillon in recent weeks, especially in the second round of the presidential election where Fillon would have a 65% lead. Then again, if 2016 taught us anything, it is that polls are almost always wrong.

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2017 – The Year of Banana Skin

2016 is behind us and we have started a new year with great gusto and no small measure of anxiety. The potential for unknown unknowns turning into banana skins is very high. Right now we are looking at:

  • The broad US stock markets & the UK FTSE are breaking new highs
  • Investment flows are rotating from Bonds to Equities on the back of a Trump driven reflation outlook
  • Donald Trump is President Elect
  • The Fed has initiated a long anticipated rise in interest rates
  • Global Debt levels as a percentage of GDP has never been higher
  • Britain is going through the painful process of divorcing itself from the EU,
  • France is facing elections where far right and and anti EU parties may take power
  • Italy’s banking system is in crisis with the weight of EUR 300 Billion in bad debts
  • Germany’s Merkel is losing core support and the Anti – EU forces are gathering power
  • China is being buffeted by global protectionist rhetoric and lacklustre domestic demand, can she manage the domestic discontented?
 
 
What could possible go wrong?
 
Many of these changes have their genesis in misguided monetary policy, specifically those pursued by the US Fed in the 1990’s and since, with micro management of economies via stimulus, artificial interest rates and the Pandora’s box that is Quantitative Easing. The risk of the “2 a.m. tweet” where policy is poorly stated or misunderstood is very real. What is of real concern is that many of the themes we identify are based on developments that are very new and lack much historic context, especially when one considers the scale of the economies that may be effected.
 
2017 market performance will be determined by a number of themes.
  • Can Trump deliver reflation or are the markets set to be disappointed?
    Trump has been elected on with a mandate to shake up the establishment, to protect US jobs and to focus internally. The question is can someone with no political experience, significant conflicts of interest, despised by the right and liberal factions, within the US political establishment, deliver? The short answer is that no one knows, but so far he has proven all is naysayers wrong and you would be a fool to bet against his form. The USD dollar has strengthened to its highest level since 1984 and this will certainly  hurt US companies’ capacity to earn from foreign operations and thus suppress GDP.
  • Can the Fed normalise interest rates?
    The Fed has taken that first tentative step and started its long awaited tightening cycle. The concern is with debt levels at such elevated levels, can institutions wishing to refinance do so at newer higher rates and what will this do to debt affordability?
  • Will Britain and the EU agree an amicable divorce or will it be a nasty drawn-out affair? The EU has appointed a French bureaucrat as its chief negotiator who is seen as a federalist and someone who maybe likely to seek to punish Britain for leaving. On the British side Britain’s ambassador to the EU resigned yesterday. His resignation note hinted at “muddled” thinking within the British camp.

 

Outlook for Gold
 
Positive on continued strong 2016 demand. In 2016 GoldCore experienced significant increases in our bullion storage programme. Clients moved cash out of banks which they believe may be subject to bail-in risks as governments and regulator capitalise the banking systems with depositors cash deposits. Clients also sold gold proxy investments such as Gold ETF funds and Digital gold holdings where clients are forced to hold unallocated and unsegregated gold holdings in favour of GoldCore Segregated and Allocated gold storage.
 
We do not see a change in this trend and with strong account openings and a massive increase in interest from corporate treasurers seeking to diversify bank risk, we are very bullish for gold demand in the year ahead.
 
Allocations for gold should be between 5% and 20% depending on a clients risk appetite. Significant systemic risk is very real and can materialise from a number of sectors. Bank deposits remain at very real risk and diversification is advisable.
 

Gold and Silver Bullion – News and Commentary

GOLD TODAY – BUYING RE-EMERGES (BullionDesk.com)

Investors in ETFs to Hedge Funds Bail on Gold as Equities Rally (Bloomberg.com)

Gold prices dip in Asia with Fed minutes eyed for policy views (Investing.com)

PRECIOUS-Gold prices dip as dollar stays near multi-year highs (Reuters.com)

GOLD PRICE PARES GAINS ON DOLLAR STRENGTH (BullionDesk.com)

7RealRisksBlogBanner

The “Upcoming, Cataclysmic, Financial Big Bang To End All Big Bangs”-Upgraded From Inevitable To Imminent? (SilverSeek.com)

SWOT Analysis: Will Gold Bullion Be Positive in 2017? (GoldSeek.com)

Money Creation and the Boom-Bust Cycle (24HGold.com)

2017 – The Year of Monetary Revolution (GoldSeek.com)

What 12 ‘Financial Experts’ Predict For The Economy in 2017 (Spoiler Alert: It’s Ugly) (ZeroHedge.com)

Gold Prices (LBMA AM)

04 Jan: USD 1,165.90, GBP 949.98 & EUR 1,117.40 per ounce
03 Jan: USD 1,148.65, GBP 935.12 & EUR 1,103.28 per ounce
30 Dec: USD 1,159.10, GBP 942.58 & EUR 1,098.36 per ounce
29 Dec: USD 1,146.80, GBP 935.56 & EUR 1,094.85 per ounce
28 Dec: USD 1,139.75, GBP 931.29 & EUR 1,091.88 per ounce
23 Dec: USD 1,131.00, GBP 921.99 & EUR 1,082.25 per ounce
22 Dec: USD 1,130.55, GBP 916.20 & EUR 1,080.47 per ounce

Silver Prices (LBMA)

04 Jan: USD 16.42, GBP 13.36 & EUR 15.74 per ounce
03 Jan: USD 15.95, GBP 12.97 & EUR 15.34 per ounce
30 Dec: USD 16.24, GBP 13.20 & EUR 15.38 per ounce
29 Dec: USD 16.06, GBP 13.10 & EUR 15.36 per ounce
28 Dec: USD 15.85, GBP 12.96 & EUR 15.22 per ounce
23 Dec: USD 15.74, GBP 12.85 & EUR 15.06 per ounce
22 Dec: USD 15.77, GBP 12.78 & EUR 15.10 per ounce


Recent Market Updates

– US: Five Must Gold See Charts – Gold Miners Are “Running Out” of Gold
– Royal Mint And CME Make A Mint On The Blockchain?
– China Gold and Precious Metals Summit 2016 – GoldCore Presentation
– Trumpenstein ! Who Created Him and Why?
– Bail-Ins Coming? World’s Oldest Bank “Survival Rests On Savers”
– Fed’s “Fool Me…”, Silver Suppression, Euro Contagion In 2017?
– Fed Raised Rates 0.25% – Rising Rates Positive For Gold
– Shariah Gold Standard Is “Revolutionary” – Mobius
– Silver Fixing By Banks Proven In Traders Chats
– Euro Crisis and Contagion Coming In 2017
– ECB ‘Bazooka’ Reloaded Until At Least December 2017 – Euro Gold Rises 1%; 13% YTD
– UK £6 Billion Worse Off After Multi Billion Pound Gold “Accounting Error”
– Buy Silver – May Replace Gold As Money In India

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Trump Sides With Assange: “Russians Did Not Give Him The Info”

Many were wondering what topic Trump would tweet about on Wednesday morning, and the answer was revealed moments ago when the president-elect, instead of sparking another mini vendetta with a US corporation, instead referred to last night’s Jullian Assange interview on Fox News.

Taking a stab at the US intelligence services with whom Trump has been engaged in a back and forth over the alleged role of Russia in “hacking the elections, Trump promoted Julian Assange’s claim that Russia was not WikiLeaks’ source for stolen documents it released in the lead-up to the presidential election,  tweeting “Julian Assange said “a 14 year old could have hacked Podesta” – why was DNC so careless? Also said Russians did not give him the info!

Trump was referring to this particular exchange between Sean Hannity and the WikiLeaks founder:

HANNITY: Can you say to the American people, unequivocally, that you did not get this information about the DNC, John Podesta’s emails, can you tell the American people 1,000 percent that you did not get it from Russia or anybody associated with Russia?

 

ASSANGE: Yes. We can say, we have said, repeatedly that over the last two months that our source is not the Russian government and it is not a state party… Obama is trying to say that President-elect Trump is not a legitimate president.

As highlighted last night, the 1-hour-long interview also revealed Assange’s concerns about his future and his family, when he said that “big powerful actors will try and take revenge” for his revelations:

“I have been detained illegally, without charge for six years, without sunlight, lots of spies everywhere. It’s tough… but that’s the mission I set myself on. I understand the kind of game that’s being played – big powerful actors will try and take revenge…it’s a different thing for my family – I have young children, under 10 years old, they didn’t sign up for that… and I think that is fundamentally unjust… my family is innocent, they didn’t sign up for that fight.”

Trump’s tweet this morning follows another provocative, intelligence-focused statement from last night, in which the President-elect said that “the “Intelligence” briefing on so-called “Russian hacking” was delayed until Friday, perhaps more time needed to build a case. Very strange!”

We expect more accusations of “treason” to be lobbed at Trump as a result of this morning’s tweet, in which the president elect has chosen to side with the Wikileaks founder instead of US intelligence agencies in casting blame on Russia, as confirmed moments ago by The Hill article titled “Trump sides with Assange over intelligence community in tweet“.

Full Assange Interview below.

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The Trump Years: New at Reason

The Trump era starts soon.

John Stossel writes:

Two more weeks until the new administration begins!

I wonder if President Donald Trump will stick to his campaign promises—like reducing immigration and slamming consumers by imposing a 35 percent tariff.

Hope not.

But it could have been much worse.

Bernie Sanders wanted to make college free, even though professors say classes are filled with privileged students who party and just kill time.

Both Sanders and Hillary Clinton promised a higher minimum wage and a thousand other new commandments that would do more harm than good.

Every Republican candidate vowed to increase defense spending, even though the U.S. is going broke and already spends more than the next seven biggest nations combined, while half the democratic world freeloads off America’s armed forces.

View this article.

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