Meet The Greater Fool: "I'm Just Buying Because Everybody's Talking About Twitter"

Wondering who you will flip your IPO allocation to? Meet 56-year-old admin assistant, Deborah Watkins… “I messed up by not buying any Facebook, so I want to get some Twitter.”

 

AS WSJ reports,

On her Tuesday lunch break, Deborah Watkins walked through gray drizzle from her office to the TD Ameritrade… The receptionist just inside the front door told her trading at the so-called IPO price – available to large investors and certain brokerage customers before the shares begin trading publicly – wasn’t available to her.

 

Ms. Watkins said she’d buy the shares once they begin trading, expected Thursday.

 

“They think little money is no money,” she said of Ameritrade

 

 

Ms. Watkins said she plans to buy about 50 shares… She said she’s not worried about price increases; she just wants to stick to her purchasing plan and buy the shares immediately, though she hasn’t ruled out selling them quickly if there’s a sharp bump.

 

 

Ms. Watkins said she’s interested in the hyped stock because of her economics-major nephew and because she knows what happened with Apple Inc. and Facebook Inc. prices and doesn’t want to miss out,

 

“I’m just buying because everybody’s talking about Twitter,” she said. “I’m just gonna take a chance.”

 

And there it is… the new normal  – immediate gratification, take a chance, over-hyped investment opportunities… What could possibly go wrong?


    



via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/2Arpt7zF-KU/story01.htm Tyler Durden

Meet The Greater Fool: “I’m Just Buying Because Everybody’s Talking About Twitter”

Wondering who you will flip your IPO allocation to? Meet 56-year-old admin assistant, Deborah Watkins… “I messed up by not buying any Facebook, so I want to get some Twitter.”

 

AS WSJ reports,

On her Tuesday lunch break, Deborah Watkins walked through gray drizzle from her office to the TD Ameritrade… The receptionist just inside the front door told her trading at the so-called IPO price – available to large investors and certain brokerage customers before the shares begin trading publicly – wasn’t available to her.

 

Ms. Watkins said she’d buy the shares once they begin trading, expected Thursday.

 

“They think little money is no money,” she said of Ameritrade

 

 

Ms. Watkins said she plans to buy about 50 shares… She said she’s not worried about price increases; she just wants to stick to her purchasing plan and buy the shares immediately, though she hasn’t ruled out selling them quickly if there’s a sharp bump.

 

 

Ms. Watkins said she’s interested in the hyped stock because of her economics-major nephew and because she knows what happened with Apple Inc. and Facebook Inc. prices and doesn’t want to miss out,

 

“I’m just buying because everybody’s talking about Twitter,” she said. “I’m just gonna take a chance.”

 

And there it is… the new normal  – immediate gratification, take a chance, over-hyped investment opportunities… What could possibly go wrong?


    



via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/2Arpt7zF-KU/story01.htm Tyler Durden

Move Over FX And Libor, As Manipulation And "Banging The Close" Comes To Commodities And Interest Rate Swaps

While the public’s attention has been focused recently on revelations involving currency manipulation by all the same banks best known until recently for dispensing Bollinger when they got a Libor end of day print from their criminal cartel precisely where they wanted it (for an amusing take, read Matt Taibbi’s latest), the truth is that manipulation of FX and Libor is old news. Time to move on to bigger and better markets, such as physical commodities, in this case crude, as well as Interest Rate swaps. And, best of all, the us of our favorite manipulation term of all: “banging the close.”

The story of crude oil manipulation, primarily involving Platts as a pricing intermediary, has appeared on these pages in the past as far back as a year ago, and usually resulted in either participant companies, regulators or entire nation states doing their best to brush it under the rug. However, it is becoming increasingly more difficult to do so as the following Bloomberg story demonstrates.

Four longtime traders in the global oil market claim in a lawsuit that the prices for buying and selling crude are fixed — and that they can prove it. Some of the world’s biggest oil companies including BP Plc (BP/), Statoil ASA (STL), and Royal Dutch Shell Plc conspired with Morgan Stanley and energy traders including Vitol Group to manipulate the closely watched spot prices for Brent crude oil for more than a decade, they allege. The North Sea benchmark is used to price more than half the world’s crude and helps determine where costs are headed for fuels including gasoline and heating oil.

 

The case, which follows at least six other U.S. lawsuits alleging price-fixing in the Brent market, provides what appears to be the most detailed description yet of the alleged manipulations and lays out a possible road map for regulators investigating the matter.

 

The traders who brought it — who include a former director of the New York Mercantile Exchange, or Nymex, one of the markets where contracts for future Brent deliveries are traded – – allege they paid “artificial and anticompetitive prices” for Brent futures. They also outline attempts to manipulate prices for Russian Urals crude and cite instances when the spread between Brent and Dubai grades of crude may have been rigged.

 

The oil companies and energy-trading houses, which include Trafigura Beheer BV and Phibro Trading LLC, submitted false and misleading information to Platts, an energy news and price publisher whose quotes are used by traders worldwide, according to the proposed class action filed Oct. 4 in Manhattan federal court.

The method of manipulation is a well-known one to regular readers: spoofing.

Over 85 pages, the plaintiffs describe how the market allegedly showed that the Dated Brent spot price was artificially driven up or down by the defendants, depending on what would profit them most in swap, futures or spot markets. They allege the defendants used methods including “spoofing” – – placing orders that move markets with the intention of canceling them later. Platts’ methodology “can be easily gamed by market participants that make false, inaccurate or misleading trades,” the plaintiff traders alleged. BFOE refers to the four oil grades — Brent, Forties, Oseberg and Ekofisk — that collectively make up the Dated Brent benchmark.

Ironically, spoofing is one of the primary mechanisms by which the HFT cabal has also benefitted, and been able to, levitate the market to ever record-er highs on ever lower volume. That, and Bernanke of course.

What do the plaintiff’s allege?

Kovel represents plaintiffs Kevin McDonnell, a former Nymex director, as well as independent floor traders Anthony Insinga and Robert Michiels, and John Devivo, who held a seat on Nymex and traded for his own account. The complaint says the plaintiffs are among the largest traders of Brent crude futures contracts on Nymex and the Intercontinental Exchange. The four, who don’t specify the amount they are claiming in damages, seek to represent all investors who traded Brent futures on the two exchanges since 2002.

 

The plaintiffs allege that in February 2011, defendants manipulated the trade of Forties-blend crude, one of four grades used by Platts to determine the Dated Brent benchmark, which represents the price of physical cargoes for delivery on the spot market.

 

Shell offered to sell shipments to keep the price of Forties “artificially low,” according to the plaintiffs.

 

Morgan Stanley (MS) was the only buyer for one of four such orders, or cargoes, totaling 2.4 million barrels of oil, the traders said. The Feb. 21, 2011, transaction was prearranged to set a lower price for Dated Brent, according to the complaint.

So how was such wholesale manipulation able to continue for over a decade? Simple – same reason why nobody “knew” anything about the Libor cabal until recently – alligned financial interests of every participating party, in this case Platts, a unit of McGraw Hill Financial – the same parents as Standard & Poors rating agency – and all the other major commodity players in the space.

“By BFOE boys,” the plaintiffs said in their complaint, “this trader was likely referring to the cabal of defendants, including Shell, which controlled the MOC process.” The claimants also alleged that in September 2012, Shell, BP, Phibro, Swiss-based Vitol and Netherlands-based Trafigura rigged the market through “a combination of spoofing, wash trades and other artificial transactions” in the Platts pricing process.

 

The defendants pressured the market downward at the start of the month by colluding to carry out irregular and “uneconomic” trades, according to the lawsuit. They drove prices higher later that month, it said.

 

The four traders said Platts was “reluctant to exclude” the irregular trades because BP and Shell are “significant sources of revenue” to Platts.

Or, said simpler, don’t ask, don’t tell, and keep cashing those checks.

Full lawsuit can be read below:

 

* * *

And in other news, the CFTC just charged DRW Investments with price manipulation by way of “banging the close” in Interest Rate Swap Futures Markets.

Defendants allegedly manipulated the IDEX USD Three-Month Interest Rate Swap Futures Contract by “Banging the Close”

 

The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) today filed a civil enforcement action in the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York against Donald R. Wilson (Wilson) and his company, DRW Investments, LLC
(DRW). The CFTC’s Complaint charges Wilson and DRW with unlawfully manipulating and attempting to manipulate the price of a futures contract, namely the IDEX USD Three-Month Interest Rate Swap Futures Contract (Three-Month Contract) from at least January 2011 through August 2011. The Complaint alleges that as a result of the manipulative scheme, the defendants profited by at least $20 million, while their trading counterparties suffered losses of an equal amount.

 

According to the Complaint, in 2010 the Three-Month Contract was listed by the International Derivatives Clearinghouse (IDCH) and traded on the NASDAQ OMX Futures Exchange, and was publicized as an alternative to over-the-counter, i.e., off-exchange, products. Wilson and DRW believed that they could trade the contract for a profit based on their analysis of the contract. At the end of 2010, Wilson caused DRW to acquire a large long (fixed rate) position in the Three-Month Contract with a net notional value in excess of $350 million. The daily value of DRW’s position was dependent upon the daily settlement price of the Three-Month Contract calculated according to IDCH’s methodology. As Wilson and DRW knew, the methodology relied on electronic bids placed on the exchange during a 15-minute period, the “settlement window,” prior to the close of each trading day. In the absence of such bids, the exchange used prices from over-the-counter markets to determine its settlement prices. Wilson and DRW anticipated that the value of their position would rise over time.

 

The market prices did not reach the level that Wilson and DRW had hoped for and expected, according to the Complaint. Rather than accept that reality, Wilson and DRW allegedly executed a manipulative strategy to move the Three-Month Contract market price in their favor by “banging the close,” which entailed placing numerous bids on many trading days almost entirely within the settlement window, none of which resulted in actual transactions as DRW regularly cancelled the bids. Under the exchange’s methodology, DRW’s bids became the settlement prices, and in this way DRW unlawfully increased the value of its position, according to the Complaint.

But the take home message here is simple: no matter the pervasive manipulation everywhere else, and seemingly by everyone including such titans of ethical fortitude as Steve Cohen, gold is not, repeat not, never has been, never will be manipulated.


    



via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/mzsANJTu9uk/story01.htm Tyler Durden

Move Over FX And Libor, As Manipulation And “Banging The Close” Comes To Commodities And Interest Rate Swaps

While the public’s attention has been focused recently on revelations involving currency manipulation by all the same banks best known until recently for dispensing Bollinger when they got a Libor end of day print from their criminal cartel precisely where they wanted it (for an amusing take, read Matt Taibbi’s latest), the truth is that manipulation of FX and Libor is old news. Time to move on to bigger and better markets, such as physical commodities, in this case crude, as well as Interest Rate swaps. And, best of all, the us of our favorite manipulation term of all: “banging the close.”

The story of crude oil manipulation, primarily involving Platts as a pricing intermediary, has appeared on these pages in the past as far back as a year ago, and usually resulted in either participant companies, regulators or entire nation states doing their best to brush it under the rug. However, it is becoming increasingly more difficult to do so as the following Bloomberg story demonstrates.

Four longtime traders in the global oil market claim in a lawsuit that the prices for buying and selling crude are fixed — and that they can prove it. Some of the world’s biggest oil companies including BP Plc (BP/), Statoil ASA (STL), and Royal Dutch Shell Plc conspired with Morgan Stanley and energy traders including Vitol Group to manipulate the closely watched spot prices for Brent crude oil for more than a decade, they allege. The North Sea benchmark is used to price more than half the world’s crude and helps determine where costs are headed for fuels including gasoline and heating oil.

 

The case, which follows at least six other U.S. lawsuits alleging price-fixing in the Brent market, provides what appears to be the most detailed description yet of the alleged manipulations and lays out a possible road map for regulators investigating the matter.

 

The traders who brought it — who include a former director of the New York Mercantile Exchange, or Nymex, one of the markets where contracts for future Brent deliveries are traded – – allege they paid “artificial and anticompetitive prices” for Brent futures. They also outline attempts to manipulate prices for Russian Urals crude and cite instances when the spread between Brent and Dubai grades of crude may have been rigged.

 

The oil companies and energy-trading houses, which include Trafigura Beheer BV and Phibro Trading LLC, submitted false and misleading information to Platts, an energy news and price publisher whose quotes are used by traders worldwide, according to the proposed class action filed Oct. 4 in Manhattan federal court.

The method of manipulation is a well-known one to regular readers: spoofing.

Over 85 pages, the plaintiffs describe how the market allegedly showed that the Dated Brent spot price was artificially driven up or down by the defendants, depending on what would profit them most in swap, futures or spot markets. They allege the defendants used methods including “spoofing” – – placing orders that move markets with the intention of canceling them later. Platts’ methodology “can be easily gamed by market participants that make false, inaccurate or misleading trades,” the plaintiff traders alleged. BFOE refers to the four oil grades — Brent, Forties, Oseberg and Ekofisk — that collectively make up the Dated Brent benchmark.

Ironically, spoofing is one of the primary mechanisms by which the HFT cabal has also benefitted, and been able to, levitate the market to ever record-er highs on ever lower volume. That, and Bernanke of course.

What do the plaintiff’s allege?

Kovel represents plaintiffs Kevin McDonnell, a former Nymex director, as well as independent floor traders Anthony Insinga and Robert Michiels, and John Devivo, who held a seat on Nymex and traded for his own account. The complaint says the plaintiffs are among the largest traders of Brent crude futures contracts on Nymex and the Intercontinental Exchange. The four, who don’t specify the amount they are claiming in damages, seek to represent all investors who traded Brent futures on the two exchanges since 2002.

 

The plaintiffs allege that in February 2011, defendants manipulated the trade of Forties-blend crude, one of four grades used by Platts to determine the Dated Brent benchmark, which represents the price of physical cargoes for delivery on the spot market.

 

Shell offered to sell shipments to keep the price of Forties “artificially low,” according to the plaintiffs.

 

Morgan Stanley (MS) was the only buyer for one of four such orders, or cargoes, totaling 2.4 million barrels of oil, the traders said. The Feb. 21, 2011, transaction was prearranged to set a lower price for Dated Brent, according to the complaint.

So how was such wholesale manipulation able to continue for over a decade? Simple – same reason why nobody “knew” anything about the Libor cabal until recently – alligned financial interests of every participating party, in this case Platts, a unit of McGraw Hill Financial – the same parents as Standard & Poors rating agency – and all the other major commodity players in the space.

“By BFOE boys,” the plaintiffs said in their complaint, “this trader was likely referring to the cabal of defendants, including Shell, which controlled the MOC process.” The claimants also alleged that in September 2012, Shell, BP, Phibro, Swiss-based Vitol and Netherlands-based Trafigura rigged the market through “a combination of spoofing, wash trades and other artificial transactions” in the Platts pricing process.

 

The defendants pressured the market downward at the start of the month by colluding to carry out irregular and “uneconomic” trades, according to the lawsuit. They drove prices higher later that month, it said.

 

The four traders said Platts was “reluctant to exclude” the irregular trades because BP and Shell are “significant sources of revenue” to Platts.

Or, said simpler, don’t ask, don’t tell, and keep cashing those checks.

Full lawsuit can be read below:

 

* * *

And in other news, the CFTC just charged DRW Investments with price manipulation by way of “banging the close” in Interest Rate Swap Futures Markets.

Defendants allegedly manipulated the IDEX USD Three-Month Interest Rate Swap Futures Contract by “Banging the Close”

 

The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) today filed a civil enforcement action in the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York against Donald R. Wilson (Wilson) and his company, DRW Investments, LLC (DRW). The CFTC’s Complaint charges Wilson and DRW with unlawfully manipulating and attempting to manipulate the price of a futures contract, namely the IDEX USD Three-Month Interest Rate Swap Futures Contract (Three-Month Contract) from at least January 2011 through August 2011. The Complaint alleges that as a result of the manipulative scheme, the defendants profited by at least $20 million, while their trading counterparties suffered losses of an equal amount.

 

According to the Complaint, in 2010 the Three-Month Contract was listed by the International Derivatives Clearinghouse (IDCH) and traded on the NASDAQ OMX Futures Exchange, and was publicized as an alternative to over-the-counter, i.e., off-exchange, products. Wilson and DRW believed that they could trade the contract for a profit based on their analysis of the contract. At the end of 2010, Wilson caused DRW to acquire a large long (fixed rate) position in the Three-Month Contract with a net notional value in excess of $350 million. The daily value of DRW’s position was dependent upon the daily settlement price of the Three-Month Contract calculated according to IDCH’s methodology. As Wilson and DRW knew, the methodology relied on electronic bids placed on the exchange during a 15-minute period, the “settlement window,” prior to the close of each trading day. In the absence of such bids, the exchange used prices from over-the-counter markets to determine its settlement prices. Wilson and DRW anticipated that the value of their position would rise over time.

 

The market prices did not reach the level that Wilson and DRW had hoped for and expected, according to the Complaint. Rather than accept that reality, Wilson and DRW allegedly executed a manipulative strategy to move the Three-Month Contract market price in their favor by “banging the close,” which entailed placing numerous bids on many trading days almost entirely within the settlement window, none of which resulted in actual transactions as DRW regularly cancelled the bids. Under the exchange’s methodology, DRW’s bids became the settlement prices, and in this way DRW unlawfully increased the value of its position, according to the Complaint.

But the take home message here is simple: no matter the pervasive manipulation everywhere else, and seemingly by everyone including such titans of ethical fortitude as Steve Cohen, gold is not, repeat not, never has been, never will be manipulated.


    



via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/mzsANJTu9uk/story01.htm Tyler Durden

Death Threats After Hawaiian Mayor Vetoes Anti-GMO Legislation

Rainbow papayasIn October, I went “In
Search of Frankencorn in Hawaii
” and reported, among other
things, that the Kauai County council had just passed legislation
placing a number of restrictions on the farms that grow biotech
seed varieties on the island.

Last week, Kauai’s mayor, Bernard Cavalho
vetoed
the legislation citing a
legal analysis
that found that Kauai did not have the authority
to pass such a bill. All hell has broken loose.

Even before the latest outbreak of activist rage, some
pro-biotech researchers who had testified at Kauai hearings on the
safety of biotech crops had received emails wishing that their
family members would
die of brain cancer
.

Over at the Genetic Literacy Project, Jon Entine follows up on
the veto with an article, “Kauai
Anti-GMO ‘Witch Trials’ continue, as Mayor Faces Death Threats for
Bill Veto
.” Entine compares the anti-GMO folk’s fears to the
reactions of the anti-Witch campaigners back in 17th century Salem,
Mass. He makes a pretty good case for the comparison:

In the 17th century, women in and around the Massachusetts town
of Salem were arrested, imprisoned and often tried because a
majority of the populace, or an outspoken minority that intimidated
others into remaining quiescent, took the law into their own hands.
There was no empirical evidence that the accused were in fact
witches; people just believed it was true. Emotions ran wild. The
episode marks one of the nation’s most notorious cases of mass hysteria,
and stands as a vivid cautionary tale about the dangers of
isolationism, extremism and false accusations—and the substitution
of emotion for science….

Although some may believe that suggesting parallels with the
fringe elements of the anti-GMO movement in Kaua’i is strained, I
would push back. I faced a barrage of over-the-top anger when I

visited the islands
for a week in August in an attempt to
engage islanders in rational, fact-based discussions about the
issues. I saw no Aloha when it came to discussing GMOs—and all of
the finger pointing and hysteria came from one side and one side
only: those who believed, with religious-like fervor, that GMOs
posed an imminent health and safety danger to them and their
children. The scientific consensus clearly contradicts those
hysterical claims, as heartfelt as they may be….

The mayor now literally fears for his life and anyone who dares
speak out on behalf of science faces public ridicule. If you are a
farmer who grows or supports the growing of genetically modified
crops, such as Rainbow papaya, you face a real possibility that
your farm will be vandalized and your business destroyed.

Sadly, these frequent outbursts of intolerance have become
staples of the anti-biotech movement on Kauai’i and increasingly on
the mainland. Web pages like GMO Free Hawaii and
Occupy
Monsanto-Hawaii
are repositories of vitriol and hate.

Shame, shame on the ideologues who make their livings from
engendering baseless fears in their fellow citizens of a safe and
highly beneficial technology.

from Hit & Run http://reason.com/blog/2013/11/06/death-threats-after-hawaiian-mayor-vetoe
via IFTTT

FBI Monitored Antiwar.com For Years in Error

The
Guardian
is reporting that the FBI monitored the website
Antiwar.com for at least six
years. What makes the monitoring particularly interesting is that
it only began after Managing Editor of Antiwar.com Eric Garris
passed the FBI a hacking threat he received via email a day after
9/11 with the subject line “YOUR SITE IS GOING DOWN.”

As the Guardian story goes on to explain, by January
2002 this message had been characterized as “A THREAT BY GARRIS TO
HACK FBI WEBSITE” by someone at the FBI field office in San
Francisco. 

From The Guardian:

According to unredacted portions of the documents, that apparent
mix-up was the first time antiwar.com came onto the FBI’s radar – a
purview that would last at least six years.

Garris said he never heard back from the FBI, and had no reason
to believe that the incident had any broader impact, until he saw
what was in his FBI file. “It was pretty scary to think that in my
FBI file, and perhaps other government agency files, there was a
report that I was considered a threat based on that,” Garris
said.

“That may follow me for the rest of my life. Any time I interact
with any law enforcement or government agencies, they’re going to
be able to see that, and make evaluations of me based on it. It’s
very scary.”

The mix-up did not stay limited to the San Francisco field
office. In 2004, FBI officials in Newark, New Jersey, compiled a
“threat assessment” of Garris and his colleague Justin
Raimondo.

Read Reason‘s J.D. Tuccille’s blog post from last May
on Antiwar.com’s attempt to find out what the fed had on them

here
.  

Read the story in full
here
.

from Hit & Run http://reason.com/blog/2013/11/06/fbi-monitored-antiwarcom-for-years-in-er
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Supreme Court To Consider Constitutionality of Opening Government Meetings With Prayer

The Supreme
Court will hear arguments today regarding the constitutionality of
holding prayers before government meetings. The New York town of
Greece is to argue that opening meetings with a prayer is
constitutional, citing previous cases. 

The town’s case is being supported by the Obama
administration. 

From UPI:

WASHINGTON, Nov. 6 (UPI) — Lawyers Wednesday readied
arguments for the U.S. Supreme Court on the
constitutionality of opening government meetings with prayer —
almost always Christian.

A town board in upstate New York, a suburb of Rochester, has
opened its meetings for years with a Christian prayer led by a
Christian cleric. But a federal appeals court ruled the prayers
unconstitutional, finding they endorse Christianity.

Follow these stories and more at Reason 24/7 and don’t forget you
can e-mail stories to us at 24_7@reason.com and tweet us
at @reason247

from Hit & Run http://reason.com/blog/2013/11/06/supreme-court-to-consider-constitutiona
via IFTTT

Don't Blame Sarvis for the Cuccinelli Loss/McAuliffe Win in Virginia

I’ve
got a new column up at
Time.com
. Here’s the opening:

Even before yesterday’s election, Republicans were ready to
blame Virginia gubernatorial
candidate Ken Cuccinelli’s looming defeat to Democrat Terry
McAuliffe on Libertarian Party candidate Robert Sarvis. “A
Vote for Sarvis is a Vote for McAuliffe
” argued one Cuccinelli
supporter.

With the
final count in
, expect Republican anger at the Libertarian
“spoiler” to grow exponentially. McAuliffe, who had enjoyed a
double-digit lead at various points in during campaign, won with
just 48 percent of the vote to Cuccinelli’s 46 percent. The
Libertarian Sarvis ended up pulling almost 7 percent, far more than
enough to tip the election the other way.

But to blame a major-party loss on third-party candidates is
fundamentally mistaken. First off, it ignores data that the
Libertarian pulled more votes from the Democratic candidate than he
did from the Republican one—an exit poll of Sarvis
voters showed that
they would have voted for McAuliffe by a two-to-one margin over
Cucinelli. Second, and far more important, it presumes that
all potential votes somehow really “belong” to either Democrats or
Republicans. That’s simply wrong and it does a real disservice to
American politics.


Read the whole thing.

from Hit & Run http://reason.com/blog/2013/11/06/dont-blame-sarvis-for-the-cuccinelli-los
via IFTTT

Don’t Blame Sarvis for the Cuccinelli Loss/McAuliffe Win in Virginia

I’ve
got a new column up at
Time.com
. Here’s the opening:

Even before yesterday’s election, Republicans were ready to
blame Virginia gubernatorial
candidate Ken Cuccinelli’s looming defeat to Democrat Terry
McAuliffe on Libertarian Party candidate Robert Sarvis. “A
Vote for Sarvis is a Vote for McAuliffe
” argued one Cuccinelli
supporter.

With the
final count in
, expect Republican anger at the Libertarian
“spoiler” to grow exponentially. McAuliffe, who had enjoyed a
double-digit lead at various points in during campaign, won with
just 48 percent of the vote to Cuccinelli’s 46 percent. The
Libertarian Sarvis ended up pulling almost 7 percent, far more than
enough to tip the election the other way.

But to blame a major-party loss on third-party candidates is
fundamentally mistaken. First off, it ignores data that the
Libertarian pulled more votes from the Democratic candidate than he
did from the Republican one—an exit poll of Sarvis
voters showed that
they would have voted for McAuliffe by a two-to-one margin over
Cucinelli. Second, and far more important, it presumes that
all potential votes somehow really “belong” to either Democrats or
Republicans. That’s simply wrong and it does a real disservice to
American politics.


Read the whole thing.

from Hit & Run http://reason.com/blog/2013/11/06/dont-blame-sarvis-for-the-cuccinelli-los
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Guest Post: The Generational Injustice Of Social (in)Security

Submitted by Charles Hugh-Smith of OfTwoMinds blog,

Forcing young workers to pay into a Ponzi Scheme is generational injustice on a vast scale.

Why should young workers pay into a retirement system that will give them nothing, a system that will dissolve in insolvency long before they're old enough to retire? This is a question that Max Keiser posed in our conversation on Peak Retirement, and I think it deserves an answer.

I think the core issue here is the generational injustice of pay as you go social programs, which boil down to unsustainable Ponzi schemes. As I noted yesterday in The Problem with Pay-As-You-Go Social Programs (November 5, 2013), all pay as you go programs funded by payroll taxes–Social Security and Medicare in the U.S.–are only sustainable if the number of workers rises faster than the number of beneficiaries, because it takes multiple full-time workers' payroll taxes to fund each beneficiary.

As I showed yesterday, it takes about ten low-wage (and hence low-payroll tax) workers to fund one retiree. At this rate, Social Security's 57 million beneficiaries (on its way to 70+ million as the Baby Boom retires en masse) would need 500 million workers paying into the system for it to be sustainable.

It takes only a few high earners (those making $85,000 or more annually) to fund one retiree, but there are too few high earners to support the system (13 million workers earn $85,000 or more, while beneficiaries will soon top 60 million).

While the number of beneficiaries will soar for the next decade as 60+ million Baby Boomers retire, the number of full-time jobs has stagnated, as this chart shows:

If the system doesn't change, the young workers currently paying payroll taxes to fund their elders' retirements will get little to nothing out of the system. This is ordained by two trends: demographics and the end of (paid) work. Global Reality: Surplus of Labor, Scarcity of Paid Work (May 7, 2012).

A huge cohort of retirees requires an even larger cohort of workers to support its retirement in pay as you go systems. This is what renders Social Security a Ponzi Scheme: a Ponzi Scheme only works as long as the number of new marks is substantial enough to pay the promised riches. Once the number of marks declines below a threshold, the Ponzi Scheme implodes.

The soon-to-be 70 million beneficiaries of Social Security would need roughly 210 million full-time workers earning decent money to sustainably fund their benefits. The U.S. economy is short about 100 million full-time jobs, and given the end of work realities I have often covered here (just type end of work into the custom search box on the main blog page), the number of full-time jobs with decent pay may well decline sharply, even in "good times," i.e. periods of expansion.

We can expect widespread destruction of paid work as technology creatively destroys one sector after another.

Why should young workers pay into a retirement system that cannot possibly offer them any benefit? The conventional answer is a lie: "Social Security is essentially eternal and will be here forever."

The other conventional answer is pure self-serving, self-justification by retirees: "We wuz promised." Well guess what, Boomers (I am 59 and a Boomer), things change in pay as you go systems. When the number of full-time workers falls to 2-to-1 or less and the number of retirees drawing benefits skyrockets, the system is no longer sustainable, regardless of what was promised by feckless politicos and their toadies.

The Social Security system could be made sustainable, but it would take radical reform. The constituencies that would oppose these reforms are among the most political powerful in the nation, so there is no chance these would ever be aired, much less approved:

1. Eliminate Social Security benefits for double and triple-dippers, i.e. those drawing pensions from other private or government sources. Re-engineer Social Security into a system for those with no other retirement benefits or pensions.

2. Tax all income, not just earned income. Lower the total Social Security tax from 12.4% to 10% but apply it equally to all income. Why should someone earning $1,000,000 pay less a percentage than someone earning $10,000? Why should I pay nothing on $100,000 I skimmed in a stock trade? Lower the tax but tax all income. Simple, fair, no loopholes.

3. Ditch the bogus Trust Fund of lies and set up a real Trust Fund that is outside the Federal Budget and Congressional avarice. Any surplus (i.e. when taxes collected exceed benefits paid in that year) would go into a true Trust Fund that uses the cash to buy Treasuries, other government bonds and AAA corporate bonds. This fund would thus help keep interest rates low, and the interest generated by the bonds would be real, not borrowed.

Congress would not be allowed to appropriate the Trust Fund for any purpose (bridges to nowhere, discretionary wars, etc.). It would be managed by trustees elected by the citizenry.

With a true Trust Fund, young workers would actually have some hope that the fund would still have real assets to liquidate to fund their retirement.

Radical transformation is necessary if Social Security is to become something other than a massive wealth transfer scheme from the young to the elderly.

Forcing you
ng workers to pay into a Ponzi Scheme is generational injustice on a vast scale.
Self-serving justifications of the status quo by those benefiting from this transfer of wealth should be outed for what they are: justifications of exploitation, avarice and injustice.


    



via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/NQob58VhpiA/story01.htm Tyler Durden