Author: admin

Authored by Nick Giambruno via InternationalMan.com,

Four thousand years ago, the rulers of ancient Babylon discovered a technique to stave off violent revolts.

In ancient times, people often became hopelessly indebted to their creditors. As debts mounted, social unrest would boil over, threatening the stability of the entire ruling system.

The rulers of the ancient world understood this dangerous dynamic.

Their solution was radical yet effective: enact widespread debt cancellation—a debt jubilee.

Debt jubilees acted as societal pressure release valves when no other options remained.

The practice spread throughout the ancient world and became codified in various civilizations.

For instance, the Book of Leviticus formalizes debt jubilees as the conclusion of a 49-year biblical cycle—seven cycles of seven years.

I believe this ancient practice is poised for a major comeback as government, corporate, and personal debt levels today have reached unsustainable heights.

The social, political, and investment implications will be profound.

Debt Jubilees: Redistribution, Not Wealth Creation

It’s important to note that debt jubilees do not create new wealth—they simply redistribute it.

Debt jubilees are government decrees that trigger massive wealth transfers, creating big winners and losers.

President Biden’s plan for student loan forgiveness marks the beginning of modern debt jubilees.

His student loan forgiveness plan is unprecedented. Unilateral executive action of this scale has never occurred during peacetime. Moreover, Congress, not the president, is supposed to make spending decisions of this magnitude.

Even Obama’s former chief economic advisor, Jason Furman, criticized Biden’s move, calling it:

“Pouring roughly half a trillion dollars of gasoline on the inflationary fire that is already burning—reckless.”

Beyond the inflationary impact—which I’ll address shortly—Biden’s student loan jubilee will set a precedent that will be hard to undo.

Consider how those who acted prudently feel.

Many avoided student debt by choosing less expensive career paths, cutting back on spending to pay for college without borrowing, or paying off their student loans entirely.

These people are probably feeling like suckers now.

Not only do they receive no relief, but they also face the burden of footing the bill for those whose loans will be forgiven.

I imagine these people will be angry and probably have considerable car, mortgage, and credit card debt, as many Americans do. So they will want debt relief, too… and I bet they will get it.

Amid rising prices, consumer debt is skyrocketing. It is at an all-time high of nearly $18 trillion, as seen in the chart below.

With interest rates rising recently, the cost of servicing this record debt is becoming unbearable for many.

As Americans hit their financial breaking points, I believe debt forgiveness demands will only grow louder—extending far beyond student loans.

All it takes is a President’s pen stroke to wipe out hundreds of billions in debt.

The student loan jubilee will set a powerful precedent.

I don’t think it will be long before we see a credit card jubilee, a car loan jubilee, or even a mortgage jubilee.

How will the government pay for all these jubilees?

Raising taxes enough to cover them seems improbable.

Issuing more debt to cancel other debts would be contradictory.

That leaves money printing as the only viable option.

This is why future debt jubilees will pour “gasoline on the inflationary fire that is already burning.”

But it’s not just consumer debt that’s unsustainable. The biggest problem is the US government’s federal debt—a much larger issue looming on the horizon.

The Federal Debt Endgame: A Coming Crisis

The US federal government has the largest debt in the history of the world—and it’s growing at a rapid, unstoppable pace.

In short, the US government is fast approaching its financial endgame.

Here’s why…

Today, the US federal debt has gone parabolic, amounting to over $36 trillion.

To put it in perspective, if you earned $1 per second 24/7/365—about $31 million per year—it would take over 1,148,531 years to pay off the US federal debt.

And that assumes the debt stops growing, which it won’t.

The growth rate is not even going to slow down. It’s going to increase exponentially.

The truth is, the debt will keep piling up unless Congress makes some politically impossible decisions to cut spending.

For example, tens of millions of Baby Boomers—about 22% of the population—will enter retirement in the coming years. Cutting Social Security and Medicare is a sure way to lose an election.

With the most precarious geopolitical situation since World War 2, defense spending is unlikely to be cut. Instead, defense spending is all but certain to increase.

Former Secretary of Defense Robert Gates recently said: “Barely staying even with inflation or worse is wholly inadequate. Significant additional resources for defense are necessary and urgent.”

In short, efforts to reduce expenditures will be meaningless unless it becomes politically acceptable to make chainsaw-like cuts to entitlements, national defense, and welfare while reducing the national debt to lower the interest cost.

In other words, the US would need a leader who—at a minimum—returns the federal government to a limited Constitutional Republic, closes the 128 military bases abroad, ends entitlements, kills the welfare state, and repays a large portion of the national debt.

However, that’s a completely unrealistic fantasy. It would be foolish to bet on that happening.

In short, the US government is trapped. It’s game over.

They have no choice but to “reset” the system—that’s what governments do when they are trapped.

How Will the US Reset the System?

Nobody knows for sure. But I’d bet a debt jubilee of biblical proportions will be a major part of it.

So then, how will the US government repudiate its impossible federal debt burden?

My guess is that they won’t be explicit. That would look too much like a default. It would destroy the role of the US as the center of the world’s financial system.

Given a choice, I don’t think the US government would choose immediate self-destruction. Since power does not relinquish itself voluntarily, we should presume they’ll decide to stealthily implement their federal debt jubilee through inflation.

Inflation benefits debtors, allowing them to borrow in dollars and repay in dimes.

And since the US government is the biggest debtor in the history of the world, it stands to gain the most from inflation.

Inflation: The Ultimate Debt Jubilee

That’s why I believe the federal debt jubilee will come in the form of a massive wave of inflation.

The coming debt jubilees could wipe out trillions in liabilities while unleashing previously unimaginable inflation.

That could trigger the largest wealth transfer in history.

Remember, debt doesn’t exist within a vacuum. It’s a liability for the borrower and an asset for the lender.

Those storing wealth in government currencies, bonds, and other paper assets will be the biggest losers.

Debtors and owners of scarce, unencumbered, hard assets will be the big winners.

It’s certainly not a just outcome.

Prudent savers shouldn’t have to pay for the excesses of debtors.

But notions of what is just or not didn’t stop Biden’s student loan jubilee—and they won’t stop the coming jubilees.

Prepare Now for the Coming Reset

Although it will be an unfortunate outcome for many people, there is simply nothing anyone can do now.

The debt levels have already reached a critical point, and the government may soon see jubilees as a politically expedient option.

That’s why it’s crucial to recognize the reality of this Big Picture and position yourself accordingly.

That means owning scarce and valuable assets that are not simultaneously someone else’s liability.

Crucially, this excludes fiat currency in bank accounts.

Remember, fiat currency is the unbacked liability of a bankrupt government.

Further, once you deposit currency into a bank, it is no longer yours. Technically and legally, it is the bank’s property, and what you own instead is an unsecured liability of the bank.

In an era of jubilees in which debts are wiped clean, you won’t want to be on the other end of unsecured liabilities or IOUs of any kind.

I believe this “reset” could happen soon—and it won’t be pretty for many.

Most people have no idea how bad things could get—or how to prepare.

That’s why I’ve published a detailed guide called The Most Dangerous Economic Crisis in 100 Years: The Top 3 Strategies You Need Right Now. Click here to download the free PDF.

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

From looking forward to harassment at restaurants to the purchase of Antifa-themed Christmas gifts, some appear to be planning for a hate-fest in the New Year…

“May Trump supporters and Trump voters and Trump himself never know peace.”

Those words, from Disney’s new Snow White actress Rachel Zegler, came shortly after half of the country, roughly 77 million Americans, voted for Donald Trump.

Only a few weeks ago, Kamala Harris and her supporters were rallying the country to choose “love over hate.” Now, the “joy” is gone. Tis the season of the liberal hate-fest.

As Washington prepares for the inauguration, we are seeing a return to rage.

During the first Trump administration, liberal servers and restaurant owners pledged not to serve Trump officials.

Now, the Washingtonian is reporting on the planned resumption of the harassment of those serving in the Trump administration.

Zac Hoffman, manager at the National Democratic Club and “D.C. restaurant veteran,” told the magazine that abusing conservatives was only natural and understandable:

“You expect the masses to just ignore RFK eating at Le Diplomate on a Sunday morning after a few mimosas and not to throw a drink in his face?”

One bartender stated that:

Trump people may “theoretically [have] the power to take away your rights, but I have the power to make you wait 20 minutes to get your entrée.”

Suzannah Van Rooy, a server and manager at Beuchert’s Saloon on Capitol Hill, declared that she would not serve some Trump officials.

“It’s not, ‘Oh, we hate Republicans,’” she said. “It’s that this person has moral convictions that are strongly opposed to mine, and I don’t feel comfortable serving them.”

Beuchert’s later fired Van Rooy.

This campaign of hate is all too familiar to conservatives. Many remember when White House press secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders and her family were kicked out of the Red Hen restaurant in Lexington, Virginia. As others were denied service or chased from restaurants, Democratic members like Rep. Maxine Waters, D-CA, supported such harassment.

For those restaurants not willing to follow the Red Hen model, the response was equally unhinged. Mariya Rusciano runs a D.C. pizza restaurant. She posted congratulations to Trump on X after the election to encourage everyone to come together as a nation. The response from Democrats was furious, filled with pledges to boycott the restaurant and force it out of business.

It is not just service and civility that are scarce in Washington. Even while accusing Trump of putting his political and personal interests ahead of the nation, Biden is now reportedly moving to veto a bipartisan bill to relieve pressure on our overwhelmed court system.

The Judges Act, supported by both Democrats and Republicans, would add 66 new judgeships to an over-worked court system. The White House supported the bill right up until Trump won the election. While some Democrats are still trying to get the White House to change its mind, liberal groups are applauding the expected veto “to prevent President Trump from having more vacancies.”

If Biden carries out his threat, it will be not only gratuitous but illogical. The bill deliberately staggers the addition of judges over the next decade so that presidents of both parties will presumably be able to appoint them. Moreover, the Senate is still closely divided, and “blue-slipping” (whereby senators can hold up some nominations) remains in effect.

More importantly, the reason for this bipartisan effort is due to a dire need for our courts. Judges are drowning in dockets with rising caseloads. In 2004, the number of cases in district court pending for more than three years was 18,280. This year, there are 81,617.

If justice delayed is justice denied, our court system is becoming a tar pit of injustice, with litigants left without verdicts or relief for years.

The word of the intended veto stripped away any pretense of the White House putting the public interest before politics. A veto would put rage before reason.

In my recent book, I discussed how addictive rage is. People do not like to admit it, but they like being angry. Sometimes, people can choose madness as a release from reality. It offers a righteous license to slip from the bounds of civility and decency. It allows people to harass Republicans in restaurants or to scream profanities outside of their homes.

It allows a president to say that he might block judgeships for a struggling court system, just because he does not want his successor to make any of the appointments.

It is the reason 41 percent of adults under 30 believe that killing others, like healthcare executives, is justified, according to an Emerson College poll.

We cannot seem to shake this rage addiction even after an election or during a holiday committed to peace and understanding. One liberal site, Crooked Media, is actually selling holiday items featuring the violent extremist group Antifa — one of the most anti-free speech groups in history, which routinely attacks journalists, speakers, and conservative demonstrators.

Created by former Obama staffers Jon Favreau, Jon Lovett, and Tommy Vietor, the Crooked Media site is selling a line of Antifa items for liberals, including Antifa onesies for infants and “Antifa Dad” shirts to seemingly celebrate political violence.

It seems the joy, bipartisanship, and civility have all expired like last year’s eggnog.  Even Disney’s new Snow White seems to have taken the cue from the Evil Queen and treated this election as “a blast of wind to fan my hate.”

And we are not even at the inauguration yet.

*  *  *

Jonathan Turley is the Shapiro professor of public interest law at George Washington University and the author of “The Indispensable Right: Free Speech in an Age of Rage.”

Dave Portnoy of Barstool Sports delivered a Christmas miracle for a veteran-owned, mom-and-pop pizza shop in Baltimore City that was on the verge of closing its doors on Christmas Day. 

During the “Barstool Pizza Review,” Portnoy visited TinyBrickOven in Federal Hill, located in the Inner Harbor area of Baltimore City—just down the street from M&T Bank Stadium.

Portnoy stepped into the tiny pizza shop, where the super-energetic owner greeted him. After a minute of talking, the owner revealed that the pizza shop was closing on Christmas Day because of financial hardships. 

“This is a re-heat – thin New York kind of style …. I really like it,” Portnoy said in the review of the pizza.

After the review, Portnoy said, “There is no way this place should be going out of business.” 

He then asked the owner: “Can I ask you something … How much money do you need to stay open?”

The owner responded: “I’m not sure.” 

Portnoy said: “Well if there is somebody super-rich right in front of your face who is in the pizza business – then what do you need to stay open for a year?”

The owner said that figure would be around $60,000. Portnoy responded: “Done.” 

Barstool Pizza Review – TinyBrickOven (Baltimore, MD) pic.twitter.com/hDqhclD45D

— Dave Portnoy (@stoolpresidente) December 23, 2024

TinyBrickOven’s website provides an overview of its financial hardships:

But now, that home is in danger of disappearing. This isn’t by choice; it’s because Senator Bill Ferguson and Delegate Luke Clippinger refuse to approve our liquor license—while businesses just a few blocks away are granted theirs. Though we’ve done everything we can, their refusal may mean the end for us, despite the law allowing them the power to help.

“Looks like the owner is truly as kind and genuine as he came off,” one X user said. 

Looks like the owner is truly as kind and genuine as he came off

Goes back to 2020 https://t.co/ee3cXvevUa

— Teddy (@TeddyRoosevalt) December 24, 2024

Portnoy has a soft spot for mom-and-pop pizza shops. During Covid, he raised more than $25 million to support small businesses impacted by the government-forced shutdown of the economy. 

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

Proposition 36, which increases punishments for some retail theft and drug possession offenses, overwhelmingly passed in California despite the opposition of Gov. Gavin Newsom and most Democrats. 

Newsom denounced the measure as something that “takes us back to the 1980s, mass incarceration.”

Despite discussing her tough-on-crime record in the election, Vice President Kamala Harris refused to support the measure or even state if she voted for it.

Now, however, two shoplifters may have given the law the greatest endorsement.

The Seal Beach Police Department in California released a video of three alleged shoplifters who seemed shocked to learn that the state was now cracking down on the rampant shoplifting in the state.

The video from the store shows the three casually stealing from an Ulta Beauty store with what police said was nearly $650 worth of stolen merchandise.

The police then released what is described as “… a friendly reminder that Proposition 36, which increases punishments for some retail theft and drug possession offenses, went into effect Wednesday morning in California.”

One alleged shoplifter was shocked to find out some shoplifting offenses are now considered a felony in California.

“It’s a felony?” one of the women asks the other in the back of the patrol car.

“B—h new laws,” the woman responds. “Stealing is a felony and this Orange County b—h. They don’t play.”

That could well be the next slogan for tough-on-crime measures in the state.

I have previously written about the lack of deterrence for shoplifting in cities like San Francisco and New York.

The fact is that most criminals are rational actors who make a calculus of risk in the commission of offenses. The mobs hitting stores like Bloomingdales are organized gangs. Even shoplifters stealing from stores like Costco and Target are known to quickly sell the goods on the internet through fences.

In 1968, University of Chicago economist Gary Becker wrote his famous article, “Crime and Punishment,” in which he argued that criminals make calculations based on the certainty and the severity of punishment. If you increase the certainty or likelihood of punishment, you can achieve deterrence with lower levels of punishment. Conversely, if there is a low detection rate for crime, you can deter some crimes with higher levels of punishment.

This shoplifter seems to be working out that calculus of risk belatedly in the back of a patrol car.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company shares are on track to record their strongest annual performance since the Dot Com bubble, as the world’s largest contract chipmaker ramped up production of artificial intelligence chips designed by Nvidia and Advanced Micro Devices, driven by surging data center demand. 

Investor enthusiasm for AI trades persists into the final trading days of the year. TSMC shares are up 82% this year, marking their best annual performance since 1999. 

Shares have soared to record highs. 

TSMC is one of three companies capable of manufacturing AI chips at scale to supply data centers following the launch of OpenAI’s ChatGPT in 2022. 

The Taiwan-headquartered chipmaker reported a 54% year-over-year jump in third-quarter net profits and lifted its full-year sales outlook on robust AI chip demand. 

In October, CEO C.C. Wei told investors: “One of my key customers said the [AI] demand right now is insane,” adding, “The demand is real. I believe it’s just the beginning of this demand … and it will continue for many years.” 

Kevin Net, head of Asian equities at Financiere de L Echiquier, told Bloomberg on Monday, “TSMC remains the best way to play the AI theme without having to pick a winner or a technology, at a reasonable valuation,” adding that the next big market capitalization event for the company will be Nvidia’s presentation at CES 2025 next month and TSMC’s upcoming results and guidance.

Earlier this month, Goldman’s Bruce Lu and Evelyn Yu penned a note to clients about their meeting with dozens of investors across Europe and Singapore. They found that TSMC still showed high interest among investors. 

“TSMC was the most frequent asked-about name during our marketing trip,” they said, adding, “We believe TSMC will benefit from not only training AI demand but also on the Inference side as it moves into more edge AI demand given its leadership stance on advanced nodes and advanced packaging.” 

The analysts continued:

In terms of its next catalyst, we see high possibility of TSMC raising its profitability outlook and long term revenue CAGR in its incoming January analyst meeting: to note, in our September Conference in San Francisco (see note), TSMC CFO commented that the guidance of 15-20% of revenue CAGR during 2021-2026 would also potentially apply to the next 5 years (vs guided timeline of 2021-2026).

As for profitability, the company is now guiding its long term GM to be ‘53% and higher’, with the new higher pricing for 3nm/5nm nodes starting 2025, we believe this would potentially be a key factor for TSMC to raise its long term profitability target.

They explained their ‘Buy’ rating on TSMC: 

We have a 12m TP of NT$1,320, which is derived by applying a target P/E multiple of 20x to our 2026E EPS. Our 20x target P/E is benchmarked to its trading average during its last earnings upcycle where its 4-year earnings CAGR in 2018-2021 was 19.3% vs. our 3-year EPS CAGR at 21.1% during 2024-26E. For the ADR (TSM), we have a 12m TP of US$248, based on a USD/TWD rate of 32.0 and ADR premium of 20% to reflect the stronger performance of SOX over Taiex especially starting 2024.

Let’s not forget that TSMC is the foundation of the expanding digital economy that powers AI data centers and enables chatbots to function. The question remains whether TSMC’s AI demand outlook is accurate…

We cited a separate Goldman note Monday explaining that the “US Internet industry entering 2025 on a firm footing.” However, the analysts pointed out that “platforms must prove the value of their AI investments as elevated investment spending enters the third year, with investors demanding returns.” 

Authored by Stephen Moore via PJMedia.com,

Here’s my wish list for the incoming Trump administration to make America healthy and prosperous and great again in 2025.

1. Slash Job-Killing Regulations

The regulatory state is a $2 trillion tax on the American economy. We all want worker safety, a clean environment and consumer protections, but in too many cases the costs of regulations far outweigh the societal benefits. President-elect Donald Trump has promised to slash 10 rules for every new rule. Just do it, Mr. President.

2. Make the Trump Tax Cuts Permanent

As JFK, Ronald Reagan and others have proven throughout history, lower tax rates lead to more growth, more investment and more jobs. The Trump tax cuts meant that a typical family of four earning $75,000 a year saw their tax bill fall by half — a benefit valued at more than $2,000. And the corporate tax rate fell from 35% — the highest in the world — to 21%, bringing jobs and capital to America. Trump has promised to make all these tax cuts permanent. Why? Because they worked almost exactly as we anticipated they would.

3. Replace Welfare With Work

Growth will require more able-bodied Americans getting off welfare and into jobs. Welfare — which includes cash assistance, public housing, food stamps, disability payments, unemployment benefits and Medicaid — needs to be a hand up, not a handout.

4. Use America’s Abundant Natural Resources

America has well more than $50 trillion of natural resources that are accessible with existing drilling and mining technologies. This is a vast storehouse of wealth that far surpasses what any other nation is endowed with. We can use the royalty payments and leases to reduce our national debt while creating hundreds of thousands of jobs.

5. Cut Medical Costs by Demanding Health Care Price Transparency

One of many ways to bring health care costs down to consumers (and taxpayers, who pay half the costs) is to require hospitals, pharmacies, doctors and health clinics to list prices for what they are charging. The Committee to Unleash Prosperity estimates that $1 trillion to $2 trillion could be reduced from health care costs, with no reduction in the quality of care, by allowing consumers to shop around on the internet for the best price — just as we do when we buy groceries, a home or a car. This will foster free market competition and lower prices.

6. Allow School Choice for All Families

Test scores in America have been plummeting. Kids are graduating from high school — if at all — without even being able to read the diploma. America no longer ranks in the top 10 in many academic achievement ratings.

A child can get a better education at HALF the cost in the Catholic school system and in many charters.

Trump has endorsed universal school choice for ALL children regardless of income or ethnicity or race. This is the civil rights issue of our time.

7. Implement a Pro-America Immigration Policy

Trump’s committed to securing our border, but we also need legal immigrants through a merit-based immigration system. This visa system would select immigrants based on their skills, talents, investment capital, English language ability and education level. These characteristics all presage success in America.

8. Revive America’s Great Cities

Our once-great cities in America — from New York to Chicago to Detroit to San Francisco to Seattle — have come to look like war zones. Crime has run rampant. Businesses and people and capital are fleeing and leaving the poorest Americans — mostly minorities — stranded with tragically limited opportunities other than working at Walmart or McDonald’s for minimum wage. Since 2020, our major cities have lost nearly 1 million residents. And tens of thousands of businesses.

Trump wants to revitalize our cities and abandoned rural areas through deregulation, reduction in tax rates, changes in zoning policies and infrastructure investments.

9. Pull the U.S. Out of the Paris Climate Change Treaty and Other Anti-America Agreements

We must end American participation in globalist treaties that hurt America most. This includes the Paris Climate Accords — a treaty with which most other nations have failed to comply, yet which places huge burdens on American companies and workers. Trump also has pledged to end global taxation — such as Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s global minimum tax. Do we even need a United Nations?

10. Finally, Drain the Swamp

There is a reason why three of the five wealthiest counties in America are in or around Washington, D.C. Washington is getting rich at the expense of the rest of us. Fewer than 10% of overpaid federal workers (of which there are more than 2 million) are working full time in the office even though COVID-19 ended three years ago. These are swamp employees that often get paid $150,000 or more a year. Fire them if they don’t show up. And relocate federal agencies in other cities.

These are admittedly bold aspirations for an economic transformation toward freedom and free enterprise. But the one person who can get it done is Trump.

US equity futures traded flat in muted pre-holiday trading, signaling another subdued open on Wall Street after Monday’s tech-led rally. As of 8:00am, contracts on the S&P 500 gained about 0.1% and those on the Nasdaq 100 were 0.2% higher. American Airlines shares fell as much as 5.5% in premarket trading after the company grounded all flights nationwide, however the stock then rebounded after the grounding was promptly lifted. European bourses, at least those that are open, and Asian markets both gained. 10Y yields rose 2 basis points to trade above 4.60% for the first time since May, while the US dollar also gained. Oil was flat and bitcoin reversed some of yesterday’s losses. It’s a quiet calendar with just the Richmond Fed mfg index and the Philadelphia Fed non-mfg activity update.

In premarket trading, American Airlines shares fall 3.1% after the company grounded all flights nationwide, according to an FAA advisory. Arcadium Lithium shares gain 4% after the chemicals company said it obtained all shareholder approvals for a proposed acquisition by Rio Tinto. Chip stocks also rose following a strong session for the sector on Monday, and as US President Joe Biden’s administration launched a probe into Chinese-made chips. NeueHealth shares surged 61% after news of the health clinic company’s acquisition by New Enterprise Associates and other investors.

With just a few sessions left in 2024, the S&P 500 is on its way to record a stellar annual return and back-to-back years of more than 20% gains. The index has risen about 25% since the end of 2023 with the top seven biggest technology stocks accounting for more than half of the advance.

European stocks, by contrast, have lagged amid lackluster economic growth and political upheaval in France and Germany. The Stoxx 600 has dropped more than 4% since a September high, heading for its biggest quarterly loss in two years.

“The year is ending with a renewed strength in the US market, thanks to an increase in breadth,” said Alberto Tocchio, a portfolio manager at Kairos Partners. “The reality is that US growth has surprised everybody as it’s been very resilient, while unfortunately Europe is closing very downbeat as it still struggles to get some growth.”

European stocks follow Asian shares higher in subdued pre-holiday trading after a Wall Street rally fueled by megacap tech shares. All subindexes are up, with energy and travel and leisure leading the ascent. The Stoxx 600 added 0.3%, with many major markets closed including Germany, Switzerland and Italy; London, Amsterdam and Paris close early. France’s CAC40 is up 0.47%, and outperforming as investors seem to be taking well to the appointment of Eric Lombard as finance minister. Lombard is tasked with passing a 2025 budget and lowering the deficit. Prime Minister Bayrou said he aimed to reduce the country’s budget deficit to near 5%; he also provided a little relief in an interview following the appointment of the new cabinet saying the biggest companies shouldn’t take on all the burden of the deficit. China proxies in Europe are also finding a bit of support reports China plans more treasury issuances in 2025 with an emphasis on supporting the Chinese consumer. Among individual movers in Europe, Vistry Group plunged as much as 20% after the UK homebuilder lowered its earnings guidance for the third time in as many months. Renault shares rose as much as 1.9%. Oddo says the agreement between Nissan and Honda for a joint holding company is a positive for the French automaker, which is Nissan’s largest shareholder.

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks rose, with shares in Mainland China and Hong Kong among the best performers, while those in Japan were mixed. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose as much as 0.4%, with Alibaba and Samsung among the biggest boosts while Taiwan Semiconductor touched a new record high. Chinese stocks bounced after Reuters reported that policymakers are planning to sell 3 trillion yuan ($411 billion) in special treasury bonds in 2025, an increase from 1 trillion yuan this year. Honda Motor climbed as much as 14% after saying it will buy back as much as ¥1.1 trillion ($7 billion) of its stock. Nissan Motor shares slid as much as 7.3% in Tokyo after the company confirmed it’s in talks with Honda over a possible business integration. MSCI’s Asian equity benchmark is still headed for its first quarterly loss since September 2023, losing 6.8% over the period, even as the S&P 500 has risen 3.7%. Sentiment has soured in Asia in recent months due to concerns over higher global tariffs threatened by US President-elect Donald Trump, a stronger dollar and China’s lackluster economic recovery. Australian stocks edged higher after minutes from the central bank’s latest policy meeting showed it is more confident that inflation is moving toward its target, but will await additional data before making a decision on interest rates. Most Asian markets will be closed Wednesday except mainland China and Japan.

In Fx, Bloomberg’s gauge of the dollar was steady. The yen fluctuated amid meager volumes as Japanese finance minister Katsunobu Kato warned about excessive foreign-exchange moves.

In rates, treasuries extended Monday’s bear steepening move with yields cheaper by up to 2bp across the long-end, steepening 2s10s spread by an additional 1bp on the day and adding to Monday’s 3.5bp widening move. 10-year yields traded around 4.60%, cheaper by 1.5bp on the day with gilts lagging by an additional 4bp in the sector. Treasury spreads wider on the day, with the 2s10s topping at 26bp and just inside last week’s multi-month highs at 27.6bp. The US session includes early 11:30am New York 5-year note auction, which follows a decent 2-year result seen Monday. SIFMA recommend early 2pm New York close for the cash Treasuries market.

In commodities, oil climbed in subdued trading ahead of the holidays after a three-day selloff, with focus on a strengthening dollar and President-elect Donald Trump’s roiling of international politics. Gold edged higher.

Bitcoin is on the backfoot and holds around the USD 94k mark, whilst Ethereum edges higher after a run of losses this week.

US economic data calendar includes December Philadelphia Fed non-manufacturing activity (8:30am) and Richmond Fed manufacturing index (10am)

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 futures up 0.1% to 6,043.25
• STOXX Europe 600 up 0.3% to 504.17
• MXAP up 0.3% to 181.57
• MXAPJ up 0.3% to 574.84
• Nikkei down 0.3% to 39,036.85
• Topix little changed at 2,727.26
• Hang Seng Index up 1.1% to 20,098.29
• Shanghai Composite up 1.3% to 3,393.53
• Sensex down 0.1% to 78,458.10
• Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.2% to 8,220.86
• Kospi little changed at 2,440.52
• Euro little changed at $1.0396
• Brent Futures up 0.6% to $73.09/bbl
• Gold spot up 0.1% to $2,615.21
• US Dollar Index up 0.11% to 108.16

Top Overnight News

• Fed announced it would soon seek comment on changes to bank stress tests to improve transparency and reduce volatility, a decision made due to the changing legal landscape, according to Reuters.
• Japan Rolls Out More Yen Warnings as Market Liquidity Thins
• Iran Oil Tycoon ‘Hector’ Plays Key Role in Arms Sales to Russia
• China Mulls Record $411 Billion Special Bonds, Reuters Says
• China Abruptly Changes Army General Overseeing Political Loyalty
• Biden to Decide on US Steel Acquisition After Panel Deadlocks
• Biden Team to Probe Chinese Chips, Setting Up Trump for Tariffs
• Bill Clinton Admitted to DC Hospital After Developing a Fever
• Fed Seeks to Smooth Capital Changes in Bank Stress Tests
• Tesla cuts the price of Model Y in China by CNY 10k

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks traded mostly firmer in choppy trade following a similar session on Wall Street, where stocks experienced volatility with low volumes amid the Christmas period. ASX 200 swung between modest gains and losses with earlier downside led by gold miners. The ASX showed little reaction to RBA minutes, which offered no significant new information. Nikkei 225 was initially supported by recent JPY weakening, but gains were shortlived as USD/JPY slipped back to session lows and eventually under 157.00. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were firmer and outperformed regionally despite a lack of significant macro newsflow, although China convened a national fiscal work conference in Beijing, according to the Ministry of Finance, and said they will step up fiscal spending and accelerate spending speed in 2025.

Top Asian News

• China’s video game regulator approves 122 (prev. 112 M/M) domestic online games in December; approves 13 imported online games.
• Japanese PM Ishiba says will step up measures for increasing minimum wages. Adds that cabinet to approve fiscal 2025 budget on December 27.
• Japan’s PM Ishiba will work to eliminate the public’s uncertainty about the future in order to “boost private consumption”
• China is issuing a plan to encourage local gov’ts to introduce policies to bolster whole grain consumption, via State Media.
• China and Japan’s Foreign Ministers will meet on Dec 25th, according to China’s Foreign Ministry.
• South Korean Opposition Party is to propose the impeachment of acting President Han on Tuesday, via Yonhap.
• South Korean Opposition Party lawmaker says will wait until later this week to decide whether to submit bill to impeach acting President Han.
• China convened a national fiscal work conference in Beijing, according to the Ministry of Finance, and said they will step up fiscal spending and accelerate spending speed in 2025. Fiscal spending will focus more on people’s livelihood and boosting consumption. The government will arrange a larger scale of government bonds to provide more support for stabilising growth and will make efforts to fend off risks in key areas. Additionally, it will further increase transfer payments to local governments to strengthen their financial capacity and support the expansion of domestic demand. Plans include appropriately increasing the basic pensions for retirees and raising the basic pensions for urban and rural residents. Furthermore, China will improve tariff policies and deepen cooperation with ‘Belt and Road’ countries.
• Chinese authorities agreed to issue CNY 3tln in special bonds in 2025 (vs CNY 1tln in 2024), according to Reuters sources; part of proceeds will be use to recapitalise some large state-owned banks. Plans to use proceeds for consumer goods and industrial equipment trade-in schemes among others.
• Japanese Finance Minister Kato said it is important for currencies to move in a stable manner reflecting fundamentals, noting that there have recently been one-sided, sharp FX moves and expressing concern about recent FX moves. He stated that Japan will continue to coordinate with overseas authorities on forex policies and will take appropriate action against excessive moves, according to Reuters.
• High-level government review board has told White House it is unable to reach consensus on national security risks involved in Nippon Steel’s (5401 JT) acquisition of US Steel (X), according to WaPo. White House spokesperson then said they received the CFIUS evaluation and the President will review it, according to Reuters.
• BoK said it would deploy market stabilising measures should FX volatility increase and noted that the pace of household debt might rise with the easing of policy rates, according to Reuters.

European bourses, Stoxx 600 +0.3% are slightly firmer today, in holiday-thinned conditions and with newsflow light. European sectors hold a strong positive bias, in-fitting with the sentiment seen in Europe. Travel & Leisure takes the top spot, paring some of the hefty losses seen in the prior session. Insurance is found at the bottom of the pile, joined closely by Consumer Products and Services. US equity futures are mixed and lack any firm direction, ultimately trading on either side of the unchanged mark.

Top European News

• Vistry Shares Plunge on Third Profit Warning From Homebuilder
• Turkish Officials To Examine Syria’s Energy Infrastructure: Govt
• UK, French Stocks Rise in Thin Christmas Eve Trade; Vistry Sinks
• Germany Set For Wind Lull This Week With Low Holiday Demand

Central banks

• RBA Minutes (December meeting): Policy needed to be “sufficiently restrictive” until confidence on inflation was achieved. The Board had gained confidence on inflation since the prior meeting, but risks remained. Members noted that the Board had minimal tolerance for inflation remaining above target for too long. They stated that future data in line with or weaker than forecasts would give more confidence on inflation, at which point it would be appropriate to begin relaxing the degree of policy tightness. However, if data proved stronger than expected, it could indicate a longer period before easing policy. The Board observed signs that policy was not as restrictive as the current cash rate level would suggest. The labour market was resilient, while service inflation remained more persistent. Wages had slowed more than expected, potentially indicating that the labour market was not as tight as previously thought. Monthly CPI data suggested a modest downside risk to Q4 inflation forecasts. Additionally, upside inflation risks had diminished, while downside risks to economic activity had grown. The Board noted that more data and updated forecasts would be available by the February meeting. Members also stated that it was not possible to judge the impact of Trump’s policies on Australia until more details were known.
• BoJ October meeting minutes (two meetings ago): A few members said they must scrutinise the impact of the past interest rate hike on the economy and prices when deciding policy. One member said they must take time and be cautious when deciding on the timing of the next rate hike. Members shared the view that the BoJ would keep raising rates if the economy and prices moved in line with its forecast. Additionally, one member noted that it was desirable to gradually raise rates if underlying inflation accelerated as projected. Another member pointed out that market rates could be lower than levels considered appropriate based on the BoJ’s economic and price projections, as well as its guidance on monetary policy. Meanwhile, one member stated that it was hard to indicate with confidence the BoJ’s medium- to long-term rate hike path due to uncertainty over Japan’s neutral rate level and the transmission mechanism of monetary policy.

FX

• DXY is essentially flat and trading towards the upper end of a very tight 108.05-20 range, amid holiday-thinned conditions and ahead of Richmond Fed Index and US supply.
• EUR is incrementally on the backfoot and dipped just below the 1.04 mark in early European trade; confines for today at 1.0389-1.0410.
• GBP/USD has traded sideways in a very tight 1.2526-45 range, showing little momentum after reaching a broader 1.2526-1.2575 range earlier in the week.
• JPY is incrementally firmer thus far, but has traded sideways in the EU session. Overnight markets digested jawboning from Finance Minister Kato, which led the USD/JPY below 157.00; a level which has since been reclaimed. Japanese PM Ishiba said he will step up measures for increasing minimum wages; comments which sparked little move in the pair.
• Antipodeans are ever so slightly on the backfoot, with the Aussie unresponsive to RBA minutes. The minutes expressed confidence in inflation but cautioned that stronger-than-expected data could prolong the period before easing. AUD/USD and NZD/USD are tucked within yesterday’s respective 0.6218-46 and 0.5632-66 ranges.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1876 vs exp. 7.3031 (prev. 7.1870)
• RBI likely sold USD to limit INR fall, according to traders cited by Reuters.

Fixed Income

• Gilts opened lower by two ticks but has since slipped slightly to a 92.19 trough in thin conditions with newsflow essentially non-existent for the UK. In a 92.07-46 band, which takes Gilts below the 92.18 base from last Friday and below that the 91.87 contract trough from last Thursday as Gilts reacted to the FOMC from the night before.
• USTs are essentially flat in an extremely narrow 108-16 to 108-19+ band while the curve is, at the margin, steepening. As above, catalysts are light though the docket ahead includes a 2yr FRN and a 5yr Note auction. Ahead, it remains to be seen if any concession emerges into the US supply.

Commodities

• WTI and Brent began the European morning on a firmer footing and continued to inch a little higher; recent geopolitical updates suggest an Israel-Hamas deal may not be as imminent as previously anticipated. Additionally, Israeli press floated the possibility of troops remaining in Southern Lebanon longer than agreed under a separate deal. Brent’Feb 25 at the top end of the day’s range at around USD 73.20/bbl.
• Spot gold is on a slightly firmer footing and holds at the upper end of a tight USD 2612-2621/oz range; price action thus far has been very rangebound.
• 3M LME copper is on a firmer footing today, but still somewhat off the USD 9K mark (currently USD 8,972), in-fitting with the risk-tone and versus mostly subdued overnight price action.

US Event Calendar

• 08:30: Dec. Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufactu, prior -5.9
• 10:00: Dec. Richmond Fed Index, est. -10, prior -14
• 10:00: Dec. Richmond Fed Business Condition, prior 10

Authored by Eric Lendrum via American Greatness,

A new study found that Democratic voters are more likely than Republican voters to reduce the amount of time spent with family members over the holidays due to political disagreements.

As reported by Breitbart, the survey from the Public Religion Research Institute (PRRI), posted on December 13th, determined that “Democratic voters (23%) are nearly five times as likely as Republican voters (5%) to say they will be spending less time with certain family members because of their political views.”

In a statement following the results of the study, PRRI founder and President Robert Jones said that “it may be tense around the Hanukkah and Christmas table. It’s not just that we’re disagreeing about abortion or we’re disagreeing about taxes or even immigration… but we’re disagreeing about a fundamental worldview and about identity.”

Jones added that many respondents said their solution to such differences will be to simply avoid discussing politics during their family gatherings.

The survey was conducted between November 8th and December 2nd, 2024, with a sample size of 5,772 American adults. The margin of error is 1.72%.

Other studies have reported similar findings, with a CBS/YouGov survey in November finding that 72% of Democratic voters and 62% of Republican voters opted to avoid politics as a topic of discussion during family reunions.

Authored by Michael Snyder via TheMostImportantNews.com,

The fact that economic conditions are getting worse is certainly not good news, but it is better to know in advance what is coming.  After four years under Joe Biden, the U.S. economy is a giant mess.  We have been witnessing a slow-motion collapse right in front of our eyes, and those at the bottom levels of the economic food chain have been experiencing more pain than anyone else.  Of course this is one of the biggest reasons why Donald Trump won the election.  

Large numbers of poor and working class Americans are desperate for change.  Unfortunately, economic conditions have continued to deteriorate since early November.

The following are 11 signs that the slow-motion collapse of the U.S. economy is far more advanced than most people think…

#1 When the economy is in good shape, holiday spending increases each year.  In 2024, only 16 percent of Americans say that they are going to spend more than last year and 35 percent of Americans say that they are going to spend less…

Americans this holiday season say they are seeing a ghost of Christmas past: inflation.

The CNBC All-America Economic Survey finds inflation is still haunting the buying public, leading to what’s shaping up to be just an average season for retailers. Just 16% of respondents say they will spend more, down two points compared to last year. Forty-eight percent said that they’ll lay out the same amount for holiday gifts, up five points. At the same time, 35% say they’ll spend less, down two points as well.

#2 The number of job openings in the U.S. is now the lowest it has been since January 2021, but unlike January 2021 we don’t have a pandemic to blame our poor performance on…

US job openings tumbled last month to their lowest level since January 2021, a sign that the labor market is losing some momentum. Still, posted vacancies remain well above pre-pandemic levels.

The Labor Department reported Tuesday that the number of job openings dropped to 7.4 million in September from 7.9 million in August.

Economists had expected the level of openings to be virtually unchanged. Job openings fell in particular at healthcare companies and at government agencies at the federal, state and local levels.

#3 The manufacturing numbers that we are getting are extremely dismal.  For example, the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Manufacturing Index just experienced an extremely sharp decline…

The Philadelphia Federal Reserve Manufacturing Index, a critical gauge of the general business conditions in Philadelphia, has reported a significant drop. The actual figure stands at -16.4, a sharp decline that suggests worsening conditions for manufacturers in the region.

This figure starkly contrasts with the forecasted number of 2.9, highlighting a more severe downturn than initially predicted. Analysts had anticipated a positive shift, indicating improving conditions, but the actual data presents a different, more concerning situation.

Moreover, when compared to the previous index value of -5.5, the current reading of -16.4 further emphasizes the severity of the decline. This continuous drop indicates a concerning trend for manufacturers within the Philadelphia Federal Reserve district.

#4 Thanks to rapidly rising mortgage rates, the average U.S. homebuyer just lost $33,250 in purchasing power in just six weeks…

Mortgage rates hit 7% on October 28, the highest level since the start of summer and up nearly one percentage point from the 18-month low they dropped to in mid-September.

A homebuyer on a $3,000 monthly budget can afford a $442,500 home with a 7% mortgage rate, the daily average 30-year fixed rate on October 28. That buyer has lost $33,250 in purchasing power over the last six weeks; they could have purchased a $475,750 home with the 6.11% average rate on September 17. That was the lowest level since February 2023.

#5 Our cost of living crisis is officially out of control.  According to Bank of America, almost a third of all households “spend more than 95% of their disposable income on necessities such as housing costs, groceries and utility bills”…

Many Americans are still in a tough spot: Nearly 30% of all US households this year said they spend more than 95% of their disposable income on necessities such as housing costs, groceries and utility bills, according to a Bank of America Institute report, up from 2019 levels.

#6 A recent Lending Tree survey discovered that nearly a quarter of all households couldn’t pay their entire power bill at some point within the past year…

LendingTree’s findings about electricity bill costs comes as it reported 23.4% of Americans experienced an inability to cover their entire energy bill or portions of it in the last year, based on Census Bureau Household Pulse Survey data.

#7 The same Lending Tree survey found that about a third of all households had to reduce spending “on necessary things” within the past year in order to pay utility costs…

Needing to cover utility bills prompted 34.3% of Americans to curb their spending on necessary things – or eliminate some altogether – in at least one instance in the prior year, LendingTree said.

#8 As I discussed last week, demand is at record levels at food banks all over the nation…

Why is demand at food banks all over the country higher than it has ever been before?  The media keeps insisting that economic conditions are just fine, but it has become quite obvious to everyone that this is not true.  In particular, the rising cost of living has been absolutely crushing households from coast to coast.  In the old days, most of the people that would show up at food banks were unemployed.  But now food banks are serving large numbers of people that actually do have jobs but that don’t make enough to pay for all of the basics.  The ranks of the “working poor” are growing very rapidly, and this is creating an unprecedented crisis all over America.

#9 During normal times, troubled retailers would at least wait until after the holiday season to throw in the towel.  But we haven’t even reached Christmas and Party City has already announced that it will be closing all stores…

Party City is closing down all of its stores, ending nearly 40 years in business, CNN has learned.

CEO Barry Litwin told corporate employees Friday in a meeting viewed by CNN that Party City is “winding down” operations immediately and that today will be their last day of employment. Staff were told they will not receive severance pay, and they were told their benefits would end as the company goes out of business.

#10 Not to be outdone, Big Lots has announced that all 936 of their remaining stores will be shutting down on a permanent basis…

Big Lots is beginning ‘going out of business’ sales at all its stores across the US, as it prepares to close its remaining locations.

The discount retail chain filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy in September, and has already shut hundreds of stores nationwide.

In a press release Thursday, the company said it would begin the sales at its 963 remaining locations, after a sale to a private equity firm fell through.

#11 As of the end of November, more than 7,000 store closings had been announced in the United States.  That is a 69 percent increase from last year…

According to a report from CoreSight Research, U.S. retailers had announced more than 7,100 store closures through the end of November 2024, which represents a 69% increase compared to the same time in 2023. These closures are spread across numerous different sectors of retail from auto parts to restaurants to pharmacies, leaving many consumers wondering which companies will survive. This brings us to GameStop, the beloved retail gaming store, which has not only been closing hundreds of retail store locations since 2020, but also appears to be on track to close hundreds more of its locations in the very near future.

This is what a failing economy looks like.

Last week, a prominent mall in downtown San Francisco was empty of shoppers in the middle of the afternoon…

Look at all of these beautiful Christmas decorations at the Crocker Galleria mall in San Francisco. It’s 4:47 PM and everybody should be shopping and buying Christmas presents for their family, but nobody is in this mall.

There are only three stores left that are open here. The escalators hum on inside this beautiful but empty decorated mall.

Outside on Market Street the fentanyl addicts lay folded over while a street performer sings Last Christmas to an empty Street.

Of course the lack of shoppers at that particular mall is just the tip of the iceberg.

Unfortunately, the truth is that downtown areas all over California “are crumbling under the weight of homelessness and drug addiction”…

California’s biggest downtown areas are crumbling under the weight of homelessness and drug addiction, causing a vital part of its economy to dry out.

Cities like Los Angeles and San Francisco have made countless headlines since the pandemic about their drug-infested streets where businesses are quickly pulling out due to high crime rates and low consumer passage.

The number of drug addicts in America is at the highest level ever.

The number of homeless people in America is at the highest level ever.

They are victims of our slow-motion economic collapse, and the holidays will not be very happy for them.

So if you still have food on the table and a warm home to sleep in, you should consider yourself to be incredibly blessed.

Sadly, more Americans are being forced out into the streets with each passing day as the slow-motion collapse of our economy accelerates.

*  *  *

Michael’s new book entitled “Why” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can subscribe to his Substack newsletter at michaeltsnyder.substack.com.

American Airlines experienced a “technical issue” early Tuesday morning, forcing the carrier to ground flights nationwide. The timing could not be worse, as Christmas Eve travel is just beginning.

“We’re currently experiencing a technical issue with all American Airlines flights. Your safety is our utmost priority, once this is rectified, we’ll have you safely on your way to your destination,” American Airlines wrote on X in response to angry customers. 

We’re currently experiencing a technical issue with all American Airlines flights. Your safety is our utmost priority, once this is rectified, we’ll have you safely on your way to your destination.

— americanair (@AmericanAir) December 24, 2024

The airline wrote in another X post, “Our team is currently working to get this done. An estimated timeframe has not been provided, but they’re trying to fix it in the shortest possible time.” 

Our team is currently working to get this done. An estimated timeframe has not been provided, but they’re trying to fix it in the shortest possible time.

— americanair (@AmericanAir) December 24, 2024

Nightmare Before Christmas:

The FAA just grounded all American Airlines flights nationwide… on Christmas Eve. pic.twitter.com/n2Pcdon1WJ

— John LeFevre (@JohnLeFevre) December 24, 2024

Something up with American Airlines systems? Appears no one can board their flights right now! pic.twitter.com/YTg3B2nTie

— Joshua (@Nextlevel1G) December 24, 2024

The source of the “technical issue” has yet to be revealed. Cyber attack? 

*Developing…