Amicus Brief in the Congressional Apportionment Case Currently Before the Supreme Court

Congress-1161-Keith-Lamond-Dreamstime

Earlier this week, University of Texas law professor Sanford Levinson and I filed an amicus brief in Trump v. New York, an important case currently before the Supreme Court. The case involves a lawsuit by New York and other state and local governments to the Trump administration’s plan to exclude undocumented immigrants from the population counts that determine the allocation of seats in the House of Representatives. As we explain in the brief, the administration’s position goes against the text and original meaning of the Constitution—both that of the original Apportionment Clause in Article I, Section 2 and the modified version enacted in Section 2 of the Fourteenth Amendment.

The brief expands on the points made in much shorter form in my recent Los Angeles Times  op ed about the case. Here is an excerpt from the brief, summarizing key aspects of our argument:

The Constitution requires the federal government to apportion congressional seats “among the several States” based on the number of “Persons” in each State. U.S. Const. art. I, § 2; seeid. amend. XIV. In an unprecedented decision, the President has made it “the policy of the United States to exclude from the apportionment base aliens who are not in lawful im-migration status….”  Because that policy flouts the Constitution’s text and original public meaning, any effort to enforce that policy by excluding undocumented people from congressional apportionment is unconstitutional….

[E]xcluding undocumented immigrants is at odds with the Apportionment Clause’s command that the government base congressional apportionment on the number of “Persons” living in each State. U.S. Const. art. I, § 2. “Persons” is a broad term and was equally broad at the founding. Then, as now, it referred to all human beings.

While that plain language is broad enough on its face to include undocumented immigrants living in a State, surrounding words and text from elsewhere in the Constitution reinforce that the Framers under-stood “Persons” as a broad and general term. For instance, the Apportionment Clause excludes “Indians not taxed” from the apportionment count. Because Indians were considered noncitizens with allegiance to their tribes, the Framers would have had no reason to expressly exclude them from the apportionment base if “Persons” excluded foreigners or those with an allegiance to a sovereign other than the United States. The Constitution’s use of “Citizens” in other provisions also underscores that the Framers distinguished between “Persons” and “Citizens”—a subset of “Persons….”

Appellants’ contrary arguments cannot overcome these points. Appellants never address the ordinary meaning of “Persons” or the “Indians not taxed” provision, which would be superfluous if the Framers understood “Persons” to exclude foreigners. Instead, Appellants rely on the Apportionment Clause’s language before it underwent stylistic changes in the Committee of Style. Because that language based apportionment on the number of “inhabitants,” not “Persons,” Appellants contend that the Framers intended to exclude foreigners. Appellants distort the meaning of “inhabitants.” According to the founding-era sources Appellants cite, inhabitants are those people who intend to stay somewhere indefinitely. Undocumented immigrants, by and large, intend to stay in the United States indefinitely. Appellants’ conjecture that some of these immigrants may be removed at some point cannot alter those persons’ intention to remain here. That intention is what matters.

I should perhaps note that Sandy Levinson and I differ on a great many disputed constitutional issues—probably many more than we agree on. But we are in complete agreement on this one.

The brief goes into some detail on such issues as why undocumented immigrants are different from tourists and foreign diplomats (who historically have not been counted for apportionment), and why there is nothing unusual or intrinsically objectionable about including people in apportionment counts who did not have the right to vote. Indeed, for much of American history, a substantial majority of those counted for apportionment did not have that right.

Conservative columnist George Will devoted his Washington Post column today to our brief, and he endorses our position:

The Framers understood “persons” broadly, with the sole exception of Indians not taxed because they were considered noncitizens with an allegiance to distinct political communities: their tribes. The Framers would not have expressly excluded Indians not taxed if “persons” excluded foreigners or others with an allegiance to a government other than the U.S. government. So, the Framers clearly meant “persons” to include immigrants.

Most of the Framers, say Somin and Levinson, did not believe the federal government had the power to exclude immigrants — there was no significant federal immigration restriction until 1875 — so they could hardly have intended to exclude from apportionment “illegal” immigrants. Furthermore, the Framers expected that the congressional apportionment count would include the more than half the adult population that was not entitled to vote because of gender, or property requirements.

Conspiracy-minded readers (this is the Volokh Conspiracy, after all!) might wonder if I somehow orchestrated the Will column in advance, in order to promote our brief. The answer is no. Will found the brief and decided to write about it entirely on his own.

It is worth noting that the case could end up being dismissed as moot. The Census Bureau recently indicated that they are unlikely to be able to transmit to the White House the data the latter needs to exclude undocumented immigrants from apportionment counts before Trump leaves office on January 20. The incoming Biden administration will almost certainly reverse Trump’s policy at that point, thus potentially rendering the case moot.

If the Supreme Court does decide the case, it is possible it will dismiss the plaintiff jurisdictions’ case based on standing, without reaching the merits (though I believe such a ruling would be a serious mistake). Our brief does not address the standing issue.

Finally, I would like to thank Scott Eisman and his outstanding team at Freshfields Bruckhaus Deringer for their excellent pro bono work on drafting the brief with me on short notice.

 

from Latest – Reason.com https://ift.tt/3pMCF66
via IFTTT

Digital Poker Sites Say ‘95%’ Of Players Demand Payouts In Bitcoin To ‘Enhance’ Winnings

Digital Poker Sites Say ‘95%’ Of Players Demand Payouts In Bitcoin To ‘Enhance’ Winnings

Tyler Durden

Fri, 11/20/2020 – 14:30

As bitcoin powers back toward all-time highs unseen since late 2017, traders around the world are wondering: who exactly is driving this rally? Many probably assumed that the retail Robinhood traders who invaded the stock market this year have also found their way to trading crypto, and that’s probably a fair assessment.

But to sustain this type of a move, larger institutional players are necessary to ensure that demand never slackens, or else the volatility for which the pioneering cryptocurrency is infamous could come roaring back. Well, a reporter with Bloomberg who apparently set out to identify some of the big players in the market has made an interesting discovery: For years now, digital poker websites have been a constantly growing source of demand for the cryptocurrency, since customers often prefer to cash out in bitcoin, instead of USD, or some other currency.

While the percentage of customers dealing in crypto was roughly 60% last year, that percentage has grown to 90%+, forcing poker companies to work out pricey OTC deals with brokers. Phil Nagy, the CEO of Winning Poker Network, a Costa Rica-based operation that runs some of the world’s most successful poker websites, told Bloomberg his company is buying millions of dollars’ worth of crypto per day.

“Right now 90-95% of our payouts are people asking for Bitcoin because it’s going up,” Nagy said from Costa Rica. “We are constantly having to go out and buy Bitcoin – lots. Lots. More than we’ve even had to before.”

The lion’s share of the site’s customers are Americans, even though online poker is illegal in most states.

The exchanges are making a killing, charging large buyers like WPN a 1.5% premium on its trades. In turn, WPN does roughly 60% of its transaction volume involving its customers via crypto. Roughly $100 million in crypto passes through its accounts every month. Demand from professional and hobbyist gamblers has apparently replaced demand from online drug dealers, another sign of the digital currency’s maturation. It was this demand that helped push bitcoin to its highest levels since late 2017 this week.

Even if the price of bitcoin retreats, or say the bubble bursts entirely, online poker players have another incentive to continue using crypto: they can help Americans avoid paying taxes on their winnings, much of which would be considered illegal since virtual poker is illegal in the US.

Digital-asset enthusiasts may also be hoping to avoid taxes by using the sites, said Aaron Brown, a crypto investor and a writer for Bloomberg Opinion. At Costa Rica-based Winning Poker Network, players file their own winnings and losses, “we don’t regulate that,” Nagy said. About 60% of the business’s customers are from the U.S., he said. And there’s a perception that Bitcoin may be harder for U.S. authorities to track than other funds.

While this trend may have peaked recently as a crowd of compulsive gamblers realized they could parlay their winnings by betting on bitcoin, it’s not exactly a new development. According to one of Bloomberg’s sources, digital poker sites played an important role in adopting bitcoin (just like dark web drug markets) back in 2013-2014, when virtual currencies were establishing themselves as more than a mere fad.

But as customers growing increasingly comfortable with bitcoin as a means of payment, they’re figuring out how to exploit many of the poker platforms’ policies for their own benefit. While Winning Poker Network tries to convert all bitcoin into fiat as quickly as possible, Nagy said, sometimes it gets “stuck” when bitcoin prices drop sharply. “When Bitcoin drops or does something significant, inevitably, we have people send us $100,000 or $200,000 in Bitcoin, because it’s the fastest way to liquidate it,” Nagy said. “And we are kind of stuck with it.”

With all the alt-coins starting to pop off, online gambling platforms could become major buyers of ethereum and other popular crypto as well.

Looking further back into the past, this shifting preference for BTC over dollars is reminiscent of another currency-related trend that began roughly 15 years ago, when the euro was in a major bull market against the dollar. The greenback was softening, and fears of taking on that FX risk prompted supermodels like Gisele Bundchen to demand that they be paid in euros.

Now, what does this demand to be paid out in bitcoin suggest about the long-term prospects for the greenback, and the rest of the fiat universe?

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/36TSajR Tyler Durden

How to Stop America’s ‘Endless Wars’

121 (1)

President-elect Joe Biden is promising a return to normalcy in U.S. foreign policy following the turbulent Trump years, calling for “America to restore dignified leadership at home and respected leadership on the world stage.”

Be careful what you wish for.

Biden backed the wars in Iraq and Syria and drone-bombing campaigns in countries like Pakistan, which were carried out under the “counterterrorism plus” strategy that he supported as vice president. In the 1990s, he co-sponsored a bill with John McCain to send troops into Yugoslavia. He advocated a troop surge in Afghanistan, though he later came to oppose it.

He embodies the establishment view that the U.S. must take the lead in policing the world because, as the Biden campaign’s foreign policy adviser Antony J. Blinken put it, “the world simply does not organize itself.” A Biden presidency might entail a return to the Obama-era policies of aerial warfare, a heavy reliance on drone strikes, and maybe even a willingness to enter multinational military conflicts without seeking congressional approval, such as the Libya intervention that toppled Moammar Gadhafi and later launched a bloody civil war.

There’s a saying in Washington: “Personnel is policy.” New administrations often draw from think tanks for both. The Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, formed in December of 2019 with seed funding from the foundations of both progressive billionaire George Soros and libertarian billionaire Charles Koch, is attempting to promote a more restrained foreign policy from inside the Beltway.

During his 2016 candidacy, Trump broke with the foreign policy establishment. As president, he spoke of ending America’s “endless wars,” and he installed a senior Pentagon adviser in the dwindling months of his presidency to accelerate a U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan—although thousands of troops will likely remain.

But Trump’s more establishment personnel fought to constrain his noninterventionist impulses. There were high-profile resignations, and one outgoing diplomat even admitted to lying about troop numbers in northern Syria after Trump had ordered a withdrawal.

Biden is reportedly eyeing former U.N. Ambassador Susan Rice for secretary of state. For defense secretary, Biden is rumored to be considering Michelle Flournoy, an Obama administration alumna who co-founded the influential Center for a New American Security, which emphasizes the need for more military preparedness against China and Russia and a smaller but ongoing U.S. presence in the Middle East.

“In terms of a Biden foreign policy, we know who Joe Biden is. He’s very much…ascribed to a kind of liberal interventionism, this notion that the U.S. needs to take a big role on the international stage for the good of the world,” says Annelle Sheline, a foreign policy analyst at the Quincy Institute.

The think tank, which seeks to cultivate a roster of foreign policy experts who can guide future administrations toward military restraint, is named for the former U.S. President John Quincy Adams, who once said that America “goes not abroad in search of monsters to destroy.”

“[Adams] says America can become the dictatress of the world, but in doing so, she will lose her own spirit and her own freedom,” says Trita Parsi, the Quincy Institute’s executive vice president. “I think we have seen that as we have gone abroad and [fought] more and more wars, the security state at home has also become stronger and stronger. And many of the liberties that the American people have traditionally seen as traditionally [uncompromisable] have been compromised.” 

The Quincy Institute’s policy fellows argue that the U.S. should abandon the strategy of global military domination and accept the reality of multipolarity, or competing regional influences.

“The longer that the United States continues to…behave in ways that were more possible when it truly was the world’s only superpower, [the more we] are just going to continue to sort of fritter away American resources,” says Sheline. 

One of the institute’s core tenets is that American foreign policy “should derive…directly from U.S. interests, rigorously defined.”

“The United States needs to focus on protecting the territory of the United States itself,” says Sheline. “One of the major bad assumptions driving U.S. foreign policy is the notion that the [military] presence in the Middle East makes the United States more safe. And this is fundamentally untrue.”

Biden told CBS’s Face the Nation in February that as president he would keep some troops in Afghanistan indefinitely.

But Sheline says America doesn’t need troops on the ground in the Middle East at all because a naval presence is sufficient to safeguard America’s main strategic interests, which are keeping trade and travel routes open and preventing the rise of a regional hegemon that could threaten U.S. national security. She says there’s no player in the region likely to assume that role.

China has learned from U.S. military misadventures and seems unlikely to get involved militarily in the Middle East, Sheline says, while Iran is too weak to become the dominant force, and Russia operates through a series of self-serving, temporary partnerships.

“The U.S. would do well to take a page out of Russia’s book and to say, ‘Saudi Arabia, you’re not acting in a way that is supporting our interests. Maybe we will go talk to Iran,'” says Sheline.

One aspect of Biden’s foreign policy stance that the Quincy Institute agrees with is the president-elect’s pledge to re-enter the Iran deal that Trump walked away from.

“The nuclear deal was actually very good because it prevented a war with Iran and prevented the Iranians from being able to have a pathway to a nuclear bomb,” says Parsi. 

Once Trump pulled out, Iran began enriching uranium at ten times the rate allowed under the deal, according to Parsi.

Sheline says although Saudi Arabia and Israel have a stake in the U.S. continuing to treat Iran as an enemy, it doesn’t pose a significant threat to America.

“Iran is quite weak,” says Sheline, who points out that the country’s GDP is smaller than that of New Jersey. “This ongoing sort of animosity between the U.S. and Iran just doesn’t really make a whole lot of sense.”

As U.S. troops leave the Middle East, Parsi suggests that America should encourage countries to form a regional security organization, but that it’s crucial for the U.S. not to take a leading role.

“This is the instinct [in Washington D.C.], that whatever we do, [the U.S. has] to be in the lead on it,” says Parsi. “[U.S. leadership] will take agency away from the regional countries. And ultimately it’s the regional countries that will benefit from the security orientation. Their incentives to move in this direction should be stronger than ours.” 

While the Quincy Institute is unlikely to be the go-to foreign policy think tank of a Biden administration with its deep ties to the foreign policy establishment, Parsi says more politicians and bureaucrats will eventually come around to their vision for a more restrained foreign policy, quite possibly out of necessity, and that when it happens the Quincy Institute will have personnel at the ready to make the pivot away from military interventionism a reality.

“What we are calling for inevitably will happen because we are bleeding ourselves to death with these endless wars,” says Parsi. “We want the shift to be a proactive shift that is done before we have weakened ourselves too much.”

Produced by Zach Weissmueller.

Photo credits: Everett Collection/Newscom; Abaca Press/Pool/Abaca/Sipa USA/Newscom; Everett Collection/Newscom; Abaca Press/SalamPix/Abaca/Sipa USA/Newscom; Nancy Siesel/ZUMA Press/Newscom; State Department/Sipa USA/Newscom; Abaca Press/SalamPix/Abaca/Sipa USA/Newscom; Dani Salvà / VWPics/Newscom; Pete Souza/ZUMA Press/Newscom

from Latest – Reason.com https://ift.tt/330TXCQ
via IFTTT

State Legislatures and Presidential Electors

New from me at the Washington Post on the law and politics of Donald Trump’s bid to persuade Republican state legislators to ignore the results of the November election and directly designate a slate of presidential electors pledged to vote for Trump’s reelection. It is a mad scheme that is doomed to failure and Republican leaders should denounce it. This is how you build support for a constitutional amendment to eliminate the Electoral College.

A taste:

At any rate, unlike the 2000 presidential election, the 2020 presidential election does not come down to a few dozen votes in a single state. Trump needs to flip not just one state but multiple states. Even if he were to persuade enough Republican-dominated state legislatures to go along with a plan to directly appoint presidential electors, he would still need to persuade governors, several of whom are Democrats, to accept the necessary legislation and certify new slates of presidential electors. Ultimately, those electoral votes will be counted in Congress, and the Democratic majority in the House of Representatives would play an important role in resolving any disputes over the validity of any state’s electoral votes.

Read the whole thing here.

from Latest – Reason.com https://ift.tt/35Lp7Qi
via IFTTT

Prison Guards Who Forced Naked Inmate To Sleep in Sewage and Urine Were Given Qualified Immunity. SCOTUS Disagreed.

dreamstime_xxl_88791339

In September of 2013, prison guards escorted a naked Trent Taylor, then an inmate at the John T. Montford Psychiatric Facility Unit in Lubbock, Texas, to his cell. That cell, he contends, was covered in “massive” amounts of human feces—on the ceiling, on the floor, on the walls, and on the windows. He didn’t eat for four days because he was anxious he’d risk contamination. Nor did he drink anything after observing that feces were “packed inside the water faucet.”

He next moved to a seclusion cell, one that came without a toilet, bed, or water fountain. Its only contents: sewage, built up from a clogged drain on the floor. When Taylor asked to use the restroom, the guards denied his request and told him to urinate in the drain. He would then have to sleep in his own urine, since the floor was already steeped in waste, and since he was without a bed. After 24 hours, he urinated on himself involuntarily, and slept, naked, in sewage.

Taylor sued those guards for violating his Eighth Amendment rights. In December 2019, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 5th Circuit conceded his rights were violated—but awarded the defendants qualified immunity, the legal doctrine that makes it especially difficult to sue public officials for misconduct.

Earlier this month, the Supreme Court ruled 7–1 that was the wrong decision. It’s a welcome change from the high court, which over and over again has declined to consider a spate of cases surrounding qualified immunity and its deleterious effects.

Such shyness is rich when considering that it was the Supreme Court that created qualified immunity. It is the American public, however, that has had to reckon with the consequences. The doctrine shields public servants from federal civil suits unless their misbehavior was “clearly established” in previous case law.

That standard sounds benign. Quite the opposite, as it requires that any alleged wrongdoing be outlined with near-exacting precision in a court precedent within the same federal circuit or via the Supreme Court. A salient example: The 9th Circuit Court of Appeals gave qualified immunity to two cops who stole $225,000 while executing a search warrant. Though the judges agreed the officers “ought to have recognized that the alleged theft was morally wrong,” the two cops couldn’t have known for certain without a specific case on the books telling them so. Their victims were not afforded the right to sue.

The 5th Circuit decision—now overturned by the Supreme Court—was similarly confounding. Circuit Judge Jerry E. Smith acknowledged that the guards infringed on Taylor’s right to be free of cruel and unusual punishment. But because the exact amount of time he spent in those cells—six days—had not yet been spelled out somewhere in a previous ruling, the claim could not stand.

“The Fifth Circuit erred in granting the officers qualified immunity on this basis,” wrote the Supreme Court in an unsigned opinion. The newly-minted Associate Justice Amy Coney Barrett did not participate, and the lone dissenter was Associate Justice Clarence Thomas. The panel added that “no reasonable correctional officer could have concluded that, under the extreme circumstances of this case, it was constitutionally permissible to house Taylor in such deplorably unsanitary conditions for such an extended period of time.”

He will now have the right to sue those guards in federal court. “The respondents here claim they need breathing room to do their job well,” Kelsi Brown Corkran, the lead attorney on the case, tells Reason. “Apparently doing their job well was putting a suicidal individual in a feces-covered cell, where he had no access to water, where he had to sleep in sewage. What possible policy rationale could you come up with that would justify not holding prison officials liable under those circumstances?”

The Supreme Court concurred, invoking Hope v. Pelzer (2002), a precedent that established that qualified immunity can be overcome when the unconstitutionality of the misconduct at hand is “obvious.”

A review of past cases would show that a long line of constitutional violations have seemed similarly obvious, though not all plaintiffs have been so fortunate as to overcome qualified immunity. There was the Georgia sheriff’s deputy who shot a 10-year-old while aiming at the family’s nonthreatening dog; he received qualified immunity. There was the Los Angeles Police Department officer who shot a 15-year-old boy who was making his way to school; he received qualified immunity. There was the cop who kneed a subdued suspect in the eye “20 to 30 times”; he received qualified immunity. There were the two cops who unleashed a police dog on a surrendered man, and the cops who beat and arrested a man for standing outside his own house. They all received qualified immunity.

The majority of the American public opposes the doctrine. There have been several legislative attempts to fix it, although they’ve been dead on arrival. Rep. Justin Amash (L–Mich.) spearheaded the first effort in the U.S. House, co-sponsoring a bill with Rep. Ayanna Pressley (D–Mass.) to end qualified immunity. It eventually achieved tripartisan support. And while Republicans have been more resistant to change on this issue, Sen. Mike Braun (R–Ind.) unveiled a bill that would have significantly rolled back the doctrine. Neither piece of legislation ever received a vote.

President Donald Trump expressed during his tenure that he would block any attempts at reforming qualified immunity. Such an aversion appears to be at odds with the GOP’s promise to be the party of “limited government,” as qualified immunity is nothing more than a free pass for rampant government abuse at the expense of the little guy. It makes more sense, however, when noting the power of the law-enforcement lobby, which Trump courted. President-elect Joe Biden has said he is not ready to scrap the doctrine but would instead like to “rein [it] in.”

Though Taylor can now seek recourse, the ruling this month does not overturn the doctrine. Even still, it’s the first SCOTUS decision striking down a cop’s qualified immunity defense in 16 years—and hopefully not the last.

from Latest – Reason.com https://ift.tt/2IUEu0a
via IFTTT

How to Stop America’s ‘Endless Wars’

121 (1)

President-elect Joe Biden is promising a return to normalcy in U.S. foreign policy following the turbulent Trump years, calling for “America to restore dignified leadership at home and respected leadership on the world stage.”

Be careful what you wish for.

Biden backed the wars in Iraq and Syria and drone-bombing campaigns in countries like Pakistan, which were carried out under the “counterterrorism plus” strategy that he supported as vice president. In the 1990s, he co-sponsored a bill with John McCain to send troops into Yugoslavia. He advocated a troop surge in Afghanistan, though he later came to oppose it.

He embodies the establishment view that the U.S. must take the lead in policing the world because, as the Biden campaign’s foreign policy adviser Antony J. Blinken put it, “the world simply does not organize itself.” A Biden presidency might entail a return to the Obama-era policies of aerial warfare, a heavy reliance on drone strikes, and maybe even a willingness to enter multinational military conflicts without seeking congressional approval, such as the Libya intervention that toppled Moammar Gadhafi and later launched a bloody civil war.

There’s a saying in Washington: “Personnel is policy.” New administrations often draw from think tanks for both. The Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, formed in December of 2019 with seed funding from the foundations of both progressive billionaire George Soros and libertarian billionaire Charles Koch, is attempting to promote a more restrained foreign policy from inside the Beltway.

During his 2016 candidacy, Trump broke with the foreign policy establishment. As president, he spoke of ending America’s “endless wars,” and he installed a senior Pentagon adviser in the dwindling months of his presidency to accelerate a U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan—although thousands of troops will likely remain.

But Trump’s more establishment personnel fought to constrain his noninterventionist impulses. There were high-profile resignations, and one outgoing diplomat even admitted to lying about troop numbers in northern Syria after Trump had ordered a withdrawal.

Biden is reportedly eyeing former U.N. Ambassador Susan Rice for secretary of state. For defense secretary, Biden is rumored to be considering Michelle Flournoy, an Obama administration alumna who co-founded the influential Center for a New American Security, which emphasizes the need for more military preparedness against China and Russia and a smaller but ongoing U.S. presence in the Middle East.

“In terms of a Biden foreign policy, we know who Joe Biden is. He’s very much…ascribed to a kind of liberal interventionism, this notion that the U.S. needs to take a big role on the international stage for the good of the world,” says Annelle Sheline, a foreign policy analyst at the Quincy Institute.

The think tank, which seeks to cultivate a roster of foreign policy experts who can guide future administrations toward military restraint, is named for the former U.S. President John Quincy Adams, who once said that America “goes not abroad in search of monsters to destroy.”

“[Adams] says America can become the dictatress of the world, but in doing so, she will lose her own spirit and her own freedom,” says Trita Parsi, the Quincy Institute’s executive vice president. “I think we have seen that as we have gone abroad and [fought] more and more wars, the security state at home has also become stronger and stronger. And many of the liberties that the American people have traditionally seen as traditionally [uncompromisable] have been compromised.” 

The Quincy Institute’s policy fellows argue that the U.S. should abandon the strategy of global military domination and accept the reality of multipolarity, or competing regional influences.

“The longer that the United States continues to…behave in ways that were more possible when it truly was the world’s only superpower, [the more we] are just going to continue to sort of fritter away American resources,” says Sheline. 

One of the institute’s core tenets is that American foreign policy “should derive…directly from U.S. interests, rigorously defined.”

“The United States needs to focus on protecting the territory of the United States itself,” says Sheline. “One of the major bad assumptions driving U.S. foreign policy is the notion that the [military] presence in the Middle East makes the United States more safe. And this is fundamentally untrue.”

Biden told CBS’s Face the Nation in February that as president he would keep some troops in Afghanistan indefinitely.

But Sheline says America doesn’t need troops on the ground in the Middle East at all because a naval presence is sufficient to safeguard America’s main strategic interests, which are keeping trade and travel routes open and preventing the rise of a regional hegemon that could threaten U.S. national security. She says there’s no player in the region likely to assume that role.

China has learned from U.S. military misadventures and seems unlikely to get involved militarily in the Middle East, Sheline says, while Iran is too weak to become the dominant force, and Russia operates through a series of self-serving, temporary partnerships.

“The U.S. would do well to take a page out of Russia’s book and to say, ‘Saudi Arabia, you’re not acting in a way that is supporting our interests. Maybe we will go talk to Iran,'” says Sheline.

One aspect of Biden’s foreign policy stance that the Quincy Institute agrees with is the president-elect’s pledge to re-enter the Iran deal that Trump walked away from.

“The nuclear deal was actually very good because it prevented a war with Iran and prevented the Iranians from being able to have a pathway to a nuclear bomb,” says Parsi. 

Once Trump pulled out, Iran began enriching uranium at ten times the rate allowed under the deal, according to Parsi.

Sheline says although Saudi Arabia and Israel have a stake in the U.S. continuing to treat Iran as an enemy, it doesn’t pose a significant threat to America.

“Iran is quite weak,” says Sheline, who points out that the country’s GDP is smaller than that of New Jersey. “This ongoing sort of animosity between the U.S. and Iran just doesn’t really make a whole lot of sense.”

As U.S. troops leave the Middle East, Parsi suggests that America should encourage countries to form a regional security organization, but that it’s crucial for the U.S. not to take a leading role.

“This is the instinct [in Washington D.C.], that whatever we do, [the U.S. has] to be in the lead on it,” says Parsi. “[U.S. leadership] will take agency away from the regional countries. And ultimately it’s the regional countries that will benefit from the security orientation. Their incentives to move in this direction should be stronger than ours.” 

While the Quincy Institute is unlikely to be the go-to foreign policy think tank of a Biden administration with its deep ties to the foreign policy establishment, Parsi says more politicians and bureaucrats will eventually come around to their vision for a more restrained foreign policy, quite possibly out of necessity, and that when it happens the Quincy Institute will have personnel at the ready to make the pivot away from military interventionism a reality.

“What we are calling for inevitably will happen because we are bleeding ourselves to death with these endless wars,” says Parsi. “We want the shift to be a proactive shift that is done before we have weakened ourselves too much.”

Produced by Zach Weissmueller.

Photo credits: Everett Collection/Newscom; Abaca Press/Pool/Abaca/Sipa USA/Newscom; Everett Collection/Newscom; Abaca Press/SalamPix/Abaca/Sipa USA/Newscom; Nancy Siesel/ZUMA Press/Newscom; State Department/Sipa USA/Newscom; Abaca Press/SalamPix/Abaca/Sipa USA/Newscom; Dani Salvà / VWPics/Newscom; Pete Souza/ZUMA Press/Newscom

from Latest – Reason.com https://ift.tt/330TXCQ
via IFTTT

State Legislatures and Presidential Electors

New from me at the Washington Post on the law and politics of Donald Trump’s bid to persuade Republican state legislators to ignore the results of the November election and directly designate a slate of presidential electors pledged to vote for Trump’s reelection. It is a mad scheme that is doomed to failure and Republican leaders should denounce it. This is how you build support for a constitutional amendment to eliminate the Electoral College.

A taste:

At any rate, unlike the 2000 presidential election, the 2020 presidential election does not come down to a few dozen votes in a single state. Trump needs to flip not just one state but multiple states. Even if he were to persuade enough Republican-dominated state legislatures to go along with a plan to directly appoint presidential electors, he would still need to persuade governors, several of whom are Democrats, to accept the necessary legislation and certify new slates of presidential electors. Ultimately, those electoral votes will be counted in Congress, and the Democratic majority in the House of Representatives would play an important role in resolving any disputes over the validity of any state’s electoral votes.

Read the whole thing here.

from Latest – Reason.com https://ift.tt/35Lp7Qi
via IFTTT

Dominion Voting ‘Lawyers Up’ Before Abruptly Backing Out Of Pennsylvania Fact-Finding Hearing

Dominion Voting ‘Lawyers Up’ Before Abruptly Backing Out Of Pennsylvania Fact-Finding Hearing

Tyler Durden

Fri, 11/20/2020 – 14:09

Authored by Debra Heine via American Greatness (emphasis ours),

Dominion Voting Systems Thursday night abruptly backed out of attending a fact-finding hearing that was set for Friday morning with the Pennsylvania House State Government Committee.

At a press conference Friday morning, State Govt Committee Chair Seth Grove said the 1.3. million Pennsylvanians who used Dominion’s voting machines have been “hung out to dry and slapped in their faces.”

Pennsylvania lawmakers had scheduled the hearing with the voting machine manufacturer “to help identify and correct any irregularities in the election process,” according to the House Republican Caucus.

It is vitally important voters have faith in the machines they use to cast their ballots. On the heels of Gov. Tom Wolf unilaterally decertifying every voting machine in the Commonwealth, we need to know whether these new machines met expectations, whether they are reliable and whether they are not subject to interference,” said Rep. Grove (R-York).

Dominion had initially agreed to attend the hearing, before it “abruptly canceled,”  Grove said.

I was impressed at what appeared to be the willingness that Dominion Voting Systems to address accusations and it would have put 1.3. million Pennsylvanians who used their machines at ease—including myself, thinking that Dominion was willing to publicly back up their product which PA taxpayers invested millions to purchase” he noted during the presser.

Unfortunately, last evening, Dominion Voting Systems lawyered up, and backed out of their commitment to the people of Pennsylvania to provide their input in a public format.”

Grove blasted the company for “retreating into the darkness,” rather than appearing at the hearing with “honesty and integrity.”

The committee chair said he wanted to know why a company with nothing to hide would back out.

“Why would a vender of public goods fear discussing their product sold to the public for the public good? If Dominion’s products were successful and operated as they were supposed to, why wouldn’t Dominion take the opportunity to publicly review its success?” Grove demanded. “How hard is it to say, ‘our ballot machines worked exactly as promised and they’re 100 percent accurate’?”

“After weeks of accusations, why has Dominion Voting Systems not released any analysis of the success of its voting machines to the public in order to stop their accusers in their tracks? If they have nothing to hide, why are they hiding from us?” he asked.

Today I am saddened to report to the taxpayers of Pennsylvania and the 1.3 million voters who trusted Dominion Voting Systems with their ballots, that Dominion Voting Systems has hung you out to dry and slapped you in your faces.” the committee chair declared.

Grove stated that Dominion’s behavior lent credibility to their accusers’ accusations.

Rep. Dawn Keefer noted that fourteen counties used the Dominion Voting Systems software, so they owe it to Pennsylvania voters to show up and answer some questions.

“We trust the workers in our polling places and in our counties,” Keefer said. “But what we don’t know is the role of 3rd party companies. And when they rescind their participation in our hearing, we’re left wondering why.”

Keefer added: “Transparency is key for our election security. Dominion Voting Software is asking us to give them only blind trust. We’re very disappointed in Dominion’s last minute cancellation in today’s hearing.
Transparency is key for our election security. Dominion Voting Software is asking us to give them only blind trust. We’re very disappointed in Dominion’s last minute cancelation in today’s hearing.”

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/39f2vdh Tyler Durden

Prison Guards Who Forced Naked Inmate To Sleep in Sewage and Urine Were Given Qualified Immunity. SCOTUS Disagreed.

dreamstime_xxl_88791339

In September of 2013, prison guards escorted a naked Trent Taylor, then an inmate at the John T. Montford Psychiatric Facility Unit in Lubbock, Texas, to his cell. That cell, he contends, was covered in “massive” amounts of human feces—on the ceiling, on the floor, on the walls, and on the windows. He didn’t eat for four days because he was anxious he’d risk contamination. Nor did he drink anything after observing that feces were “packed inside the water faucet.”

He next moved to a seclusion cell, one that came without a toilet, bed, or water fountain. Its only contents: sewage, built up from a clogged drain on the floor. When Taylor asked to use the restroom, the guards denied his request and told him to urinate in the drain. He would then have to sleep in his own urine, since the floor was already steeped in waste, and since he was without a bed. After 24 hours, he urinated on himself involuntarily, and slept, naked, in sewage.

Taylor sued those guards for violating his Eighth Amendment rights. In December 2019, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 5th Circuit conceded his rights were violated—but awarded the defendants qualified immunity, the legal doctrine that makes it especially difficult to sue public officials for misconduct.

Earlier this month, the Supreme Court ruled 7–1 that was the wrong decision. It’s a welcome change from the high court, which over and over again has declined to consider a spate of cases surrounding qualified immunity and its deleterious effects.

Such shyness is rich when considering that it was the Supreme Court that created qualified immunity. It is the American public, however, that has had to reckon with the consequences. The doctrine shields public servants from federal civil suits unless their misbehavior was “clearly established” in previous case law.

That standard sounds benign. Quite the opposite, as it requires that any alleged wrongdoing be outlined with near-exacting precision in a court precedent within the same federal circuit or via the Supreme Court. A salient example: The 9th Circuit Court of Appeals gave qualified immunity to two cops who stole $225,000 while executing a search warrant. Though the judges agreed the officers “ought to have recognized that the alleged theft was morally wrong,” the two cops couldn’t have known for certain without a specific case on the books telling them so. Their victims were not afforded the right to sue.

The 5th Circuit decision—now overturned by the Supreme Court—was similarly confounding. Circuit Judge Jerry E. Smith acknowledged that the guards infringed on Taylor’s right to be free of cruel and unusual punishment. But because the exact amount of time he spent in those cells—six days—had not yet been spelled out somewhere in a previous ruling, the claim could not stand.

“The Fifth Circuit erred in granting the officers qualified immunity on this basis,” wrote the Supreme Court in an unsigned opinion. The newly-minted Associate Justice Amy Coney Barrett did not participate, and the lone dissenter was Associate Justice Clarence Thomas. The panel added that “no reasonable correctional officer could have concluded that, under the extreme circumstances of this case, it was constitutionally permissible to house Taylor in such deplorably unsanitary conditions for such an extended period of time.”

He will now have the right to sue those guards in federal court. “The respondents here claim they need breathing room to do their job well,” Kelsi Brown Corkran, the lead attorney on the case, tells Reason. “Apparently doing their job well was putting a suicidal individual in a feces-covered cell, where he had no access to water, where he had to sleep in sewage. What possible policy rationale could you come up with that would justify not holding prison officials liable under those circumstances?”

The Supreme Court concurred, invoking Hope v. Pelzer (2002), a precedent that established that qualified immunity can be overcome when the unconstitutionality of the misconduct at hand is “obvious.”

A review of past cases would show that a long line of constitutional violations have seemed similarly obvious, though not all plaintiffs have been so fortunate as to overcome qualified immunity. There was the Georgia sheriff’s deputy who shot a 10-year-old while aiming at the family’s nonthreatening dog; he received qualified immunity. There was the Los Angeles Police Department officer who shot a 15-year-old boy who was making his way to school; he received qualified immunity. There was the cop who kneed a subdued suspect in the eye “20 to 30 times”; he received qualified immunity. There were the two cops who unleashed a police dog on a surrendered man, and the cops who beat and arrested a man for standing outside his own house. They all received qualified immunity.

The majority of the American public opposes the doctrine. There have been several legislative attempts to fix it, although they’ve been dead on arrival. Rep. Justin Amash (L–Mich.) spearheaded the first effort in the U.S. House, co-sponsoring a bill with Rep. Ayanna Pressley (D–Mass.) to end qualified immunity. It eventually achieved tripartisan support. And while Republicans have been more resistant to change on this issue, Sen. Mike Braun (R–Ind.) unveiled a bill that would have significantly rolled back the doctrine. Neither piece of legislation ever received a vote.

President Donald Trump expressed during his tenure that he would block any attempts at reforming qualified immunity. Such an aversion seems to be at odds with the GOP’s promise to be the party of “limited government,” as qualified immunity is nothing more than a free pass for rampant government abuse at the expense of the little guy. It makes more sense, however, when noting the power of the law-enforcement lobby, which Trump courted. President-elect Joe Biden has said he is not ready to scrap the doctrine but would instead like to “rein [it] in.”

Though Taylor can now seek recourse, the ruling this month does not overturn the doctrine. Even still, it’s the first SCOTUS decision striking down a cop’s qualified immunity defense in 16 years—and hopefully not the last.

from Latest – Reason.com https://ift.tt/2IUEu0a
via IFTTT

Here Are The 50 Most Popular And 50 Most Shorted By Hedge Funds Stocks

Here Are The 50 Most Popular And 50 Most Shorted By Hedge Funds Stocks

Tyler Durden

Fri, 11/20/2020 – 13:54

Earlier today we showed that according to Goldman prime, hedge funds have never been more long stocks, on both a gross and net basis.

But what are they long?

The tautological answer is “the basket of Hedge Fund VIP stocks”, which is the 50 or so names that most hedge funds have gravitated toward, and which as noted earlier, managed to outperform remarkably in Q3.

The only problem: the basket of most popular hedge fund shorts ripped even higher in 2020…

… which is why this has been another year in which hedge funds have failed to outperform the S&P500.

Looking closer at this VIP basket reveals that it is nothing more than a handful of momentum/tech names that trade with near record equity duration, which is why they are so sensitive to even the faintest gust of reflation as we saw last Monday when the momentum factor suffered a 15 sigma collapse.

This is how Goldman explains the recent turmoil within this “most popular” group of stocks:

Recent vaccine developments have generated a major shift in equity market momentum and also a stumbling block for hedge fund alpha. Following PFE’s announcement of vaccine efficacy on November 9, our S&P 500 Momentum factor experienced its largest single-day decline in its 40-year history. The factor declined again earlier this week following the release of MRNA’s vaccine efficacy results. As momentum reversed, our Hedge Fund VIP List of the most popular long positions also lagged. In recent months, both the Momentum factor and the excess returns of our Hedge Fund VIP list of popular long positions have been negatively correlated with vaccine news.

Why such dramatic moves? Because as Goldman observes, the most popular hedge fund longs “have recently traded with a record sensitivity to interest rates, reflecting the risk posed to high valuation growth stocks from an economic recovery.” Or, as noted above, the highest momentum stocks, growth stocks, and Hedge Fund VIPs all have high equity duration, which reflects the market’s view of the contribution of long-term growth to present value, and is also why the only thing that can crash this market is a return of inflation which would unleash a liquidation wave among these companies.

Why is this important? Because equity duration for stock valuation multiples has historically been tied to the level of interest rates, helping explain the momentum reversal and underperformance of Hedge Fund VIPs as vaccine announcements led to a jump in Treasury yields. It also explains why the valuation premium of the most popular hedge fund stocks is absolutely insane, and the highest in history: according to Goldman “our Hedge Fund VIP basket currently trades with a two-year forward P/E multiple of 25x, a nearly 30% premium to the S&P 500 multiple of 19x.”

Translation: even a hint of (reflationary) economic recovery will instantly crash the market as its leaders see their PEs collapse.

Perhaps realizing that they are facing potentially terminal losses once inflation returns, Goldman notes that while funds remain tilted toward high momentum growth stocks, “that position has moderated in the last few months, reducing the risk to returns from further progress on the path to pandemic recovery.” To wit, during 3Q, hedge funds slightly increased their long positions in Cyclicals relative to Defensives and reduced their tilts toward Growth and away from Value. For example, at the sector level, funds increased positions in Financials in 3Q, continuing a rotation that began in 2Q. Hedge fund concentration and crowding has also declined in recent months.

And while all that may be true, it is really just a small change on the margin – the reality is that hedge fund exposure to tech remains unprecedented. Focusing on just those, Goldman writes that “among the market-leading mega-cap growth stocks, hedge funds increased ownership of MSFT, FB, and GOOGL but reduced positions in AAPL and AMZN.” And, since they are always wrong when acting as a collective, funds reduced ownership of TSLA… just as the stock exploded to new all time highs after it was slated to be added to the S&P 500 on December 21. Remarkably, TSLA also fell out of our Hedge Fund VIP basket this quarter – when hedge funds should have been doubling down on it.

So with all that in mind, we go back to the original question: what are the 50 most popular stocks among hedge funds? The answer, represented by the Goldman Hedge Fund VIP basket, is shown below. There are no surprise at all, except as noted above, Tesla’s falling out of this list.

And since it is the most shorted stocks that end to do far better than the most popular ones, especially during market-wide squeezes such as the one seen since March, here is also the list of 50 most-shorted stocks. As usual, our advice is to go long the most hated names and short the most popular ones – a strategy that has generated alpha without fail for the past 7 years.

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/36XCzQv Tyler Durden