Alec Baldwin Pleads Guilty After Punching Man In Dispute Over Parking Spot

Actor Alec Baldwin, who is best known for portraying President Trump on Saturday Night Live, has pleaded guilty to second-degree harassment following an incident last year when he punched a man during a dispute over a parking space in New York City, according to Fox News.

The actor appeared in a Manhattan courtroom on Wednesday where he agreed to attend a short anger management program as part of his plea. Because Baldwin didn’t have a record (despite numerous incidents where he got aggressive with photographers and was famously thrown off a flight after refusing to stop playing “Words with Friends” on his phone), the DA felt comfortable recommending a violation charge of harassment in the second degree.

Baldwin

The actor will need to pay a charge of $120 and provide proof of payment and completion for the classes by March 27. As part of the deal, photos and video of the incident will be destroyed.

The actor’s lawyer declined to comment on the plea. Police said that Baldwin and the man had started arguing and shoving each other after the man parked in a spot that Baldwin said a family member had been holding for him. In addition to the incidents cited above, Baldwin was handcuffed back in 2014 after getting into a dispute with a police officer.

The NYPD said at the time that Baldwin, who had no identification on him, “refused to [identify] himself, became belligerent, cursing and yelling. He was then placed in handcuffs.”

Baldwin went on a twitter rant after the arrest where he accused the police of allowing the media to “terrify” his daughter.

via ZeroHedge News http://bit.ly/2CFlvzs Tyler Durden

Kicking Xi Jinping While He’s Down

Authored by EconomicPrism’s MN Gordon, annotated by Acting-Man’s Pater Tenebrarum,

One Great Big Difference

On a beautiful midsummer day, roughly six months ago, two distinguished men, of distinguished stature, crossed paths under precarious circumstances.  They are very much alike, these two distinguished men.

Let’s confuse him…  [PT]

Both are men of enormous ego.  Both are filled with ambitious delusions for the future.  Both are masters of persuasion.  Both offer a cause and conviction people can rally behind.

Both deliver frequent promises of greatness.  Both hold up historical allusions of eminence, and do so with confidence and flair.  Both claim destiny is on their side.

Does one read The Wall Street Journal?  Does one not?  We don’t know.

But we do know there’s one great big significant difference between these two men.  A difference far beyond either of their control.

One has an eye to the past, and a futile desire to return to greatness.  The other has an eye to the future, and a burning ambition to own it.  The difference, in other words, is that between descent and ascent.  And the intersection of this difference is a natural point of conflict.

As one star falls and one star rises, their two paths inevitably cross.  There’s no way around it.  Once the rendezvous has been made, there’s no turning back.

The First Day of the War

On July 6, 2018, if you recall, the first of President Trump’s trade tariffs with China took effect.  These included a 25 percent tariff on $34 billion of Chinese goods entering the United States.  Chinese President Xi Jinping quickly countered with retaliatory tariffs on U.S. soybeans and automobiles.

Billionaire investor Ray Dalio commemorated the exchange by tweeting:

Today is the first day of the war with China.”

Was Dalio exercising hyperbole?  Was he being starkly somber?  Perhaps he was merely recognizing that a trade war can lead to a fighting war… should Trump and Jinping push hard enough.

Lettuce hope this is not where this is going…  [PT]

Roughly a year ago, President Trump commented that, “trade wars are good, and easy to win.”  So far the trade war has been more bark than bite.  Several additional rounds of tariffs were imposed or threatened, following the first day of the war.

Then, over dinner at the G20 Buenos Aires summit, Trump and Jinping agreed to delay planned tariff increases for 90 days, from December 1, 2018. Presently, the 90 day negotiation period is halfway over.  Yet, as far as we can tell, little progress has been made in reaching a new trade agreement.

Moreover, should no resolution be reached by March 1, 2019, tariffs of 25 percent will be imposed on $200 billion of Chinese goods.

But what then?  Will more tariffs bring about a glorious triumph for Trump? Here at the Economic Prism we have some reservations.  Namely, that the desired result – some sort of economic victory – is unattainable.  That after damaging business and trade there will be no clear conclusion.

At the moment, however, Trump appears to have some leverage over Jinping.  Though this is more by dumb luck than by skill or aptitude…

Maybe flattery will work…  [PT]

Cartoon by Jeff Danziger / Rutland Herald

Kicking Xi Jinping While He’s Down

Reports out of China this week are of an economy that’s slowing.  In fact, China’s December exports fell 4.4 percent year-on-year.  At the same time, China’s December imports fell 7.6 percent over this same period.

Are Trump’s trade policies responsible for China’s slowing economy?  Or is it merely a coincident?  Maybe China’s economy’s slowing because two decades of debt financed growth have erected an economy that is highly unstable.  Here Bloomberg offers some thoughts:

“A trade pact, if it happens, may soothe investors, and perhaps even juice economic growth—at least temporarily.  But it won’t bring an end to China’s woes.  While tariffs are a nuisance, the real problems run deeper, embedded in China’s financial structure.

“What goes widely unnoticed is that China is already in crisis.  No, it’s not the sort of hold-on-for-dear-life collapse the U.S. had in 2008 or the surprising, ferocious meltdowns the Asian Tiger economies experienced in 1997.  Nonetheless, it’s a crisis, complete with gutted banks, bankrupt companies, and state bailouts.  Since the Chinese distinguish their model of state capitalism as ‘socialism with Chinese characteristics,’ let’s call this a ‘financial crisis with Chinese attributes.’

“This crisis is not merely about the current slowdown in growth.  It’s been going on for a while, and by the looks of it, isn’t going away anytime soon.  How it’s resolved—or isn’t—will have repercussions much bigger than a few quarters of poor growth performance.  This crisis is about China’s economic future and whether or not it can manage the structural transformation necessary to propel the economy into the ranks of the world’s most advanced.  And it also will determine if China will be a pillar of global growth—or a threat to the world’s financial stability.”

Both narrow and broad money supply growth rates in China have collapsed to the lowest levels in at least twenty years. This is putting pressure on economic activity in the country. [PT]

As President, Trump has a successful track record of always kicking a man while he’s down.  Without question, as part of the trade negotiations, he’ll give Jinping several extra kicks while he can.  In doing so, and as the U.S. economy also slows, he’ll push the trade war ever closer to a real war.

via ZeroHedge News http://bit.ly/2S3CHbE Tyler Durden

WTI Extends Losses After Big Surprise Crude Build

Crude prices fell to the lowest level in almost a week as China warned of “serious challenges” to the global economy and the U.S. government shutdown cast a pall over growth.

“You still have the same old things hanging over us, particularly the question of a trade deal between the U.S. and China,” said  Michael Hiley, head of OTC energy trading at LPS Futures in New York.

API

  • Crude +6.551mm (-500k exp)

  • Cushing +359k

  • Gasoline +3.635mm

  • Distillates +2.573mm

After three weeks of dramatic product builds (and modest crude draws), it appears a record high production finally caught up with demand as API reported a major surprise crude build of 6.551mm barrels.

WTI was hovering around $52.60 ahead of the API data and extended the day’s losses on the print…

Tomorrow at 11ET will see the DOE report.

via ZeroHedge News http://bit.ly/2Ua4XGX Tyler Durden

Get Ready – They’re Coming For Your Money

Authored by Simon Black via SovereignMan.com,

Every so often throughout history, the peasants grab their pitchforks and come for the elite. It happens when the wealth gap grows too extreme… when people feel like they are getting left behind, with no opportunity to advance.

Central banks around the world have printed trillions of dollars over last decade, and pushed interest rates to zero, and sometimes below. And all of that stimulus went directly into the pockets of the wealthy.

Since 2009, the world’s billionaires more than DOUBLED their combined wealth. All the billionaires in the world had $3.4 trillion in 2009. By 2017, they amassed $8.9 trillion.

Mark Zuckerberg multiplied his wealth almost 20 times over, from $3 billion in 2009, to over $58 billion in 2019.

$8.9 trillion is a massive, almost incomprehensible amount of wealth.

But it really shouldn’t be that surprising if you think about it… these people are wealthy for a reason. Typically, they are pretty good at making money. And with the snowball effect, if you give them more time, they will probably make even more.

For the last ten years, we’ve seen a huge asset price inflation in everything from the stock market, to bonds and real estate, and even fine art and wine.

But if you’re a wage earner without assets, you’ve been left out. Wages andmedian household wealth have stagnated.

And this is a global issue…

The combined wealth of the poorest half of the world–3.8 billion people–fell by 11% just last year, according to Oxfam, a group working to alleviate poverty.

The New York Times claims the richest 8 people on the planet have more wealth than the poorest 3.8 billion.

And Forbes says the 3 richest Americans have as much wealth as the poorest half of the country’s population.

People feel trapped, like they have no path to prosperity. They see money thrown around by the government, and the rich. They see stocks and real estate boom… but where is theirs?

It’s this lack of MOBILITY that really gets the masses worked up.

3.4 billion people got poorer last year.  How many more stayed exactly where they were, or barely budged? The vast majority of the global population is the same or worse off than they were 12 months ago.

Meanwhile a tiny group got embarrassingly rich.

I’m not trying to sound like some radical, left-wing, social justice warrior. I just know that throughout history, whenever the wealth gap gets large enough, it corrects.

Sometimes that happens through legislation and sometimes it happens through violence. People demand that their politicians forcefully redistribute the wealth. And the politicians, always hungry for more power, are happy to step up to the plate.

We’re starting to see this in America today.

Last week we talked about New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio’s speech in which he said: “Brothers and sisters, there’s plenty of money in the world. There’s plenty of money in this city. It’s just in the wrong hands.”

What he meant was that the people who earned the money shouldn’t get to keep it.

Then there’s the new star of Congress, Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez. She supports hiking income taxes up to 70%, providing free medical care, free college, a chicken in every pot and a unicorn in every garage.

And, of course, she blames capitalism for everything wrong with the United States… and says “it will not always exist in the world.”

Ray Dalio, manager of Bridgewater, the world’s largest hedge fund, is hobnobbing with the global elite at a Swiss ski resort in Davos. He says that among the attendees, the ideas of this 29-year-old freshman Congresswoman are actually taking root.

Nobel Laureate economist Paul Krugman thinks AOC’s 70% is too low.

Somewhere between 73% and 80% is the optimal tax rate he says. Under his plan, the government will graciously let you keep up to 27% of what you earn.

Unfortunately, the public likes what it hears.

According to Gallup, 51% of 18-29 year olds view socialism favorably.

Only 45% view capitalism positively. That’s down from 68% in the same age group just a few years ago.

And membership in the Democratic Socialists of America has swelled 7x just in the last two years.

Their candidates are certainly crowding the 2020 primary.

There’s Elizabeth “you didn’t build that” Warren. Bernie Sanders and his tens of trillions of dollars worth of promises for free-stuff.

Former Obama cabinet secretary Julian Castro is one Presidential contender who wants “free” two-year college. Like Bernie, he has also endorses Medicare for all, a government run socialized healthcare scheme.

Other likely contenders, Senator Corey Booker and Senator Kirsten Gillibrand, want a federal guaranteed jobs program to hand out cushy government job with benefits to anyone who wants one.

And now Kamala Harris is officially in the race.

Harris is a Senator from who will undoubtedly appeal to the socialist uprising. Already she endorsed AOC’s call for a 70% tax rate, and won’t rule out BANNING private car ownership to address climate change.

Her campaign slogan is “For the people.” And the campaign colors are red and yellow… just missing the hammer and sickle.

(Insert imagine of hammer and sickle)

All of these candidates want to take your money and redistribute it to the people who keep them in power. It is SO obvious what is going to happen next.

There will be more government spending that they can’t afford. More bureaucracy, more central planning…

As de Blasio said, he thinks people have a socialistic impulse which makes them want the government “to determine which building goes where, how high it will be, who gets to live in it, what the rent will be.”

And unfortunately the statistics are supporting this view.

These are the new socialist candidates for the presidency who all promise to take your money and do with it what they see fit.

But here’s the thing, none of this stuff works. Central planning doesn’t work. Bureaucracy doesn’t work.

It drags everyone down, and lifts up only the politically connected. We’ve seen it a million times before, across the world, throughout history.

Unfortunately, it seems like the trend of American socialism is picking up steam.

These Presidential candidates (along with a large chunk of American voters) are determined to turn America into yet another failed experiment in socialism.

And to continue learning how to ensure you thrive no matter what happens next in the world, I encourage you to download our free Perfect Plan B Guide.

via ZeroHedge News http://bit.ly/2S7XKty Tyler Durden

Stocks, Dollar Slide As Global Growth Gloom Grows

No one wins today…

Chinese stocks trod water overnight…

 

European markets pumped and dumped…Spain is leading on the week and UK’s FTSE the laggard…

 

US Markets were a mixed bag as earnings beats mixed with multiple macro headlines leaving the indices notably dispersed…

In cash markets, Dow outperformed thanks to IBM, UTX, and P&G (as FDX and UPS dragged on other indices after a downgrade)…

White House Council of Economic Advisers Chairman Kevin Hassett said that if the partial government shutdown extends through March, there’s a chance of zero economic expansion this quarter, though “humongous” growth would follow once federal agencies reopen. Oil’s retreat weighed on energy producers and service providers.

“The broader concern that I think will continue to creep in here is, leaving trade aside, is how weak is global growth? How weak is China’s growth?” said Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab & Co.

Trade-talks rhetoric ratcheted up with China warning that US markets would crash if Trump did not do a deal (therefore suggesting he is under pressure to do a deal since he lives and dies by the stock market). However, later in the day, Trump responded by threatening that more tariffs will be unleashed if the Chinese do not come towards his goals.

Overall the score seems to be Kudlow 1 – 0 Hassett…

This headline hit at 1435ET TRUMP’S OUTSIDE CHINA ADVISOR SAYS THERE WON’T BE BREAKTHROUGH IN TRADE TALKS SOON – CNBC – and stocks dipped but only enough for algos to BTFD.

 

VIX had a wild ride – from a 19 handle to over 21 and all the way back down again…

 

 

Treasury Yields ended the day marginally higher across the curve (but well off the day’s yield highs)…

 

The dollar dropped into the red for the week…

 

Offshore Yuan surged overnight up to the Fix…

 

Ether, Bitcoin, and Ripple dipped in the afternoon after CBOE withdrew its Bitcoin ETF request…

 

Another chaotic day in crude along with copper on China growth concerns and PMs managed to hold unchanged on the week…

 

WTI ranged between $52 and $53.50 on the day ahead of tonight’s API inventory data…

 

Finally, earnings expectations continue to slide…(S&P Fwd EPS is at the lowest level in 5 months)

‘Soft’ survey sentiment has collapsed…

And the lifeblood of the rebound – central bank balance sheet expansion – has stalled once again…

And there’s one more thing…

via ZeroHedge News http://bit.ly/2FSUfkg Tyler Durden

People Love “Medicare For All” – Until They Find Out It Will Raise Taxes

While “Medicare-for-all” is set to become a 2020 Democratic talking point, support for the universal healthcare scheme crumbles when people are asked if they’d be willing to pay higher taxes or put up with delays in treatment to get it, according to the Associated Press.

According to a survey released Wednesday by the nonpartisan Kaiser Family Foundation, initial support for the “Medicare-for-all” comes in at 56% – increasing to as much as 71% when people are told it would guarantee health insurance as a right, eliminate premiums and reduce out-of-pocket expenses. 

When told that it would increase taxes or lead to delays in service, however, support for the program dropped to 37% and 26% respectively.

“The issue that will really be fundamental would be the tax issue,” says Harvard professor Robert Blendon of the T.H. Chan School of Public Health in response to the poll. Blendon noted that single-payer programs in Vermont and Colorado failed due to concerns over tax increases required to fund them. 

There doesn’t seem to be much disagreement that a single-payer system would require tax increases, since the government would take over premiums now paid by employers and individuals as it replaces the private health insurance industry. The question is how much.

Several independent studies have estimated that government spending on health care would increase dramatically, in the range of about $25 trillion to $35 trillion or more over a 10-year period. But a recent estimate from the Political Economy Research Institute at the University of Massachusetts in Amherst suggests that it could be much lower. –Associated Press

In the first year of the program, the government would need to come up with around $1.1 trillion to fund the program, even with significant cost savings. 

According to Mollyann Brodie who directed the Kaiser poll, the big swings in approval vs. disapproval suggest that the debate over “Medicare-for-all” will only heat up from here. “You immediately see that opinion is not set in stone on this issue,” she said. 

“Any public debate about ‘Medicare-for-all’ will be a divisive issue for the country at large,” added Brodie. 

The poll also reveals that most Democrats want House Democrats to focus on improving the Affordable Care Act (ACA, a.k.a. Obamacare).

Two other Democratic healthcare alternatives received widespread support according to the poll. 

Majorities across the political spectrum backed allowing people ages 50-64 to buy into Medicare, as well as allowing people who don’t have health insurance on the job to buy into their state’s Medicaid program.

Separately, another private survey out Wednesday finds the uninsured rate among US adults rose to 13.7% in the last three months of 2018. The Gallup National Health and Well-Being Index found an increase of 2.8 percentage points since 2016, the year Trump was elected promising to repeal “Obamacare.” That would translate to about 7 million more uninsured adults. –Associated Press

According to government surveys, the rate of uninsured has remained virtually unchanged under Trump.  

via ZeroHedge News http://bit.ly/2FVk2YZ Tyler Durden

Kass: Market Continues To Underprice Risk

Via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

“The world’s economy is growing more slowly than expected and risks are rising.”

Christine Lagarde, IMF Managing Director

The recent market rally, which I had expected, has not surprisingly overshot many observers’ upside expectations.

A possible explanation for the market’s extreme moves in the last two months or so is likely market structure in which the dominant force in the market (passive investors) worship at the altar of price momentum and are increasingly agnostic to balance sheets, income statements and “intrinsic values.” Indeed, in a market dominated by ETFs and quant trading (structured to “buy higher and sell lower”) and in which there is nothing like price to improve sentiment — investors seem to be ignoring the market’s shaky fundamental foundation.

The three core reasons to be bullish (and my responses) seem to be:

1. A more dovish Federal Reserve – I continue to believe the Fed, facing a disappointing domestic economy, will cease rate hikes in 2019. While many see this as positive, I think it reflects slowing growth. And with federal funds at only about 2.5% there are few monetary tools to stimulate growth going forward.

2. Confidence with regard to global economic growth – This view is unjustified based on high frequency economic data in the U.S. and by weakening growth in Europe and China(See the quote from IMF’s Lagarde above) Even if interest rates are not increased, I don’t see it as a factor that will even stabilize U.S. growth. My baseline expectation is for +1% to +2% first half U.S. growth and a negative print in this year’s second half based on restrictive Fed policy (Quantitative Tightening), untenable debt loads, the widening national debt, political turmoil and a lapping of fiscal stimulus. The chances of a rate cut are increasing for this year (See my 15 Surprises for 2019).

3. The improving prospects for a resolution of our trade dispute with China – Over to my right, Jim “El Capitan” Cramer makes the case (which now seems to have become consensus) that China’s economic weakness improves the chance of a negotiated trade compromise with China. This is something I strongly disagree with – as I wrote in mid-January, 2019 in “An Optimistic View of Trade Talks With China May Not Be Justified”:

“If you are going to take them on, now is the time to take them on.

That was a prevailing sentiment I got from a surprising number of people in the tech world who do not like President Trump but do endorse his policy to get China to play fair or risk the consequences of losing our market to sell its wares.

Given the timing — Sunday night we learned that China’s exports were down 4.4% in December while imports were off 7.6%, the worst since 2016, while the trade surplus with the U.S. hit a record in 2018 — I think this harsher-than-expected-view may be more realistic than most investors think…

I think it’s because China has never been more vulnerable and we have rarely been as strong as we are right now.”–Jim “El Capitan” Cramer, It is Now or Never to Push Change With China

That makes sense.

However, I don’t see the “other side’s” sense of urgency — even as China’s economy continues to disappoint. Stated simply, China thinks in a time frame of decades while President Trump thinks in a time frame of a tweet.

While a superficial agreement with China is always possible, I don’t see anything meaningful that addresses the core issues of intellectual property, technology exchange, etc.

As well, I suspect President Trump has his hands filled with other issues (the government shutdown and the border wall dispute, personal issues, etc.), and though in need of a win or a distraction, may find it difficult to focus on China.

My guess is that China guts out its economic weakness and little progress is made on trade between the two parties over the next few months. (This is a consistent view I have had).

Bottom Line

“You’ll be swell! You’ll be great!
Gonna have the whole world on the plate!
Starting here, starting now,
honey, everything’s coming up roses!”

– Ethel Merman, Everything’s Coming up Roses

The market’s market structure (and limited natural price discovery) means that equities will increasingly moves to extremes, in a new regime of volatility (which will likely continue until there is the next significant “Flash Crash”). And the list of possible outcomes (many of them adverse) has never been higher in an increasingly flat and interconnected world.

  • Excessive pessimism and poor price action contributed to a Christmas Eve low which provided an opportunity to go long.

  • Excessive optimism and good price action is now contributing to a late January high which might be providing an opportunity to sell stocks.

Sorry, Ethel, everything is not coming up roses.

via ZeroHedge News http://bit.ly/2RLNHLi Tyler Durden

Syria Ceasefire On Brink Of Collapse As Russia Blames Turkey For Terrorist Growth

Four months after Syria and Russia agreed to call off its joint attack on HTS/al-Qaeda held Idlib province, opting amidst US threats to cut a ceasefire deal mediated with Turkey, Moscow now says Ankara has failed to live up to its end of the bargain, which included agreeing to clear Idlib of terrorists and extremist groups. This means a joint Syrian Army-Russia assault on Idlib could again be on the horizon, which was a major source of tension and threats with the United States previously in September. 

HTS in Idlib, via Al Jazeera

The collapse of the prior ‘deescalation’ agreement comes at a time when the White House has vowed to stick to the planned US pullout, however, this could be yet a another major development to complicate or delay any possible withdrawal timeline. FT described current Turkish-Russian talks in Moscow as follows:

Russia has accused Turkey of failing to live up to a promise to clear Syria’s Idlib of extremist militant groups and admitted that a landmark ceasefire agreement made last September had failed. Ahead of crunch talks between the leaders of the two countries in Moscow on Wednesday, Russia’s foreign ministry said the Islamist extremist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) had “full control” of Syria’s last remaining major opposition stronghold. The damning assessment came four months after Moscow agreed to postpone a planned military assault on the city in exchange for a promise from Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan to clear it of militants.

HTS is of course the rebranded coalition dominated by former Nusra Front militants, which is Syrian al-Qaeda. Russia has called the situation “rapidly deterioration” and this week pointed to growing numbers of ceasefire violations and incidents and threats against Russia’s Hmeimim airbase in Syria. Russia’s Foreign Ministry cited that “65 people have been killed and more than 200 injured in more than 1,000 recorded breaches of the agreement,” according to FT. This despite Erdogan previously agreeing to keep militants away from a 15km to 20km deep buffer zone established between HTS and pro-Damascus forces. 

Turkey for its part has predictably laid blame on Assad, saying Damascus had for years purposefully facilitated the resettling of al-Qaeda terrorists in the northwest Syrian province. Russian spokesperson Maria Zakharova described that the Idlib ceasefire zone had “essentially been taken under the full control of militants from the al-Nusra alliance, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, through the ousting of moderate armed opposition units.”

Last September as Syrian Army forces began to mobilized for a planned major attack on what even the United States has acknowledged as the last major al-Qaeda stronghold in Syria, US officials played the chemical weapons card, warning that if there was so much as an accusation of banned weapons usage on the part of the Syrian-Russian coalition that Washington would intervene. The Turkey deal subsequently took shape when Erdogan and Putin aggreed that a temporary ceasefire between the countries would “avert a major humanitarian crisis” — especially given that some 3 million civilians live amidst al-Qaeda and extremist groups.

Likely hawks within the Trump administration will seize on this now “collapsed” deal, as well as last week’s ISIS suicide attack on a US patrol in Manbij, which killed 4 Americans, to argue the Pentagon must stay the course and maintain a muscular presence in order to prevent any future “massacre” of civilians and fighters in Idlib.

Should Turkish officials depart Moscow without salvaging any part of the ceasefire, and if Syrian Army shelling and preparations for an assault resume, the Syrian proxy war will turn red hot once again, opening the possibility of yet more US intervention, instead of the planned draw down.

via ZeroHedge News http://bit.ly/2Tchtpm Tyler Durden

Warning Signs Flash For U.S. Shale

Authored by Nick Cunningham via Oilprice.com,

The shale tidal wave may finally be starting to ebb…

The largest oilfield services company in the world says that shale drilling activity is slowing, creating an uncertain outlook for 2019.

The recent volatility in oil prices has created “less visibility and more uncertainty” on spending by shale companies in 2019, Schlumberger’s CEO Paal Kibsgaard said on an earnings call on January 18.

Shale drillers are “generally taking a more conservative approach to the start of the year, again delaying the broad based recovery in the E&P spend that we expected only three months ago,” he said.

Kibsgaard said that spending from the shale industry could be flat or down this year relative to 2018. That could translate into lower drilling activity, while E&Ps focus on drawing down the enormous backlog of drilled but uncompleted wells (DUCs). Companies working through DUCs could keep production aloft even as drilling slows, but output would likely fall relative to 2018, while decelerating further in 2020.

Schlumberger’s chief executive also warned that the shale industry could see other problems going forward that could be even more significant. Shale drilling suffers from a precipitous decline in output soon after a well is completed. After an initial burst in output, wells see a rapid decline in production. This is not news; it has characterized shale drilling for years.

But this dynamic appears to be a growing problem, one that could soon catch up with the industry.

“It is also worth noting that with the continued growth in U.S. shale production, an increasing percentage of the new wells drilled are being consumed to offset the steep decline from the existing production base,” Kibsgaard told shareholders and analysts on Schlumberger’s earnings call.

“The third party analysis shows that in 2018, this number was 54% of total CapEx and is expected to increase to 75% in 2021, clearly demonstrating the unavoidable treadmill effect of shale oil production.” 

Beyond that, well interference is also a mounting problem. Drilling wells too close to one another can cannibalize production, raising costs and leading to less overall output. That becomes a larger problem over time after companies pick over the best acreage. Additionally, the length of laterals and the use of frac sand and other proppants have reached the limits of what they can achieve.

“We could be facing a more moderate growth in U.S. shale production in the coming years than what the most optimistic views have been suggesting,” Kibsgaard warned.

That echoes the problems of shale gas giant EQT. The Wall Street Journal reported earlier this month that even as EQT was breaking new frontiers in terms of the length of the shale wells the company was drilling, the economics proved highly disappointing. Last April, one shale gas well EQT drilled exceeded 18,000 feet, and EQT thought it could drill horizontal wells approaching 20,000 feet. “The decision to drill some of the longest horizontal wells ever in shale rocks turned into a costly misstep costing hundreds of millions of dollars,” the Wall Street Journal reported. EQT’s CEO said later in the year that its wells were encountering problems when they exceeded 15,000 feet.

In other words, even as shale oil and gas drillers boast of their ability to achieve ever-increasing gains by drilling longer laterals, using more sand, packing wells into tighter distances – there are signs that these “efficiency gains” are maxing out.

Schlumberger still sees a rebound in drilling over the course of 2019, but in the short run, the fall in oil prices is taking a toll. Baker Hughes reported a massive decline in the active rig count last week, with 21 oil rigs vanishing from American oil fields along with four natural gas rigs. That puts the U.S. oil rig count at its lowest point in eight months. There is typically a lag between major movements in crude prices and a response in the rig count. But a few months on from the collapse of oil prices, we are finally starting to see the effects. Last week’s decline of 21 rigs is the largest one-week drop in nearly three years. “Clearly the slump in the WTI price to $42 per barrel at year’s end made shale oil producers more cautious,” Commerzbank said in a note on Monday.

Looking at the latest oil production forecasts, there is also an expected slowdown in output on the way. The EIA said in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook that U.S. oil production growth would slow to 1.1 million barrels per day (mb/d) this year, down from a surge of 1.6 mb/d in 2018. By next year, production growth will slow further to a 0.8 mb/d expansion.

via ZeroHedge News http://bit.ly/2U7d5YE Tyler Durden

“I Can’t Say I’m Sorry” Says Covington MAGA Hat Teen; “Vietnam Vet” Indian Outed As Fridge-Fixer

Covington Catholic High School student Nick Sandmann refused to apologize for standing his ground as a native american “Vietnam veteran” approached him banging a drum. 

“I mean, in hindsight, I wish we could’ve walked away and avoided the whole thing. But I can’t say that I’m sorry for listening to him and standing there,” Sandmann told “NBC Today” co-host Savannah Guthrie in an interview which has received harsh criticism from both the left and the right. 

Wednesday’s interview evoked strong reactions – with liberals condemning NBC for interviewing Sandmann, and conservatives knocking the network for asking loaded questions. 

The Native American “Vietnam Vet” Nathan Phillips, meanwhile, has been outed for never serving in Vietnam despite repeatedly claiming to have done so, in a case of stolen valor. 

Skeptics of Phillips’ claim were vindicated following a correction in the Washington Post that reads: “Earlier versions of this story incorrectly said that Native American activist Nathan Phillips fought in the Vietnam War. Phillips said he served in the U.S. Marines but was never deployed to Vietnam.”

According to retired Navy Seal Don Shipley – whose YouTube channel is devoted to exposing stolen valor, Phillips’ records reveal that he was a refrigerator technician who went AWOL several times, and who was never deployed outside of the United States. 

Shipley adds that Phillips never served as a “recon ranger” as he has previously claimed. 

As the Gateway Pundit’s Cassandra Fairbanks notes, Phillips raised over $6,000 for a documentary about his life in which he claimed to be a Vietnam Veteran. 

Meanwhile, the memes are flowing:

via ZeroHedge News http://bit.ly/2ATvzVB Tyler Durden