Category: zerohedge

Just days after the Biden administration signed a new military aid package worth billions of dollars to Ukraine, Kyiv launched a series of suicide drone attacks on Russian oil refineries. Biden’s top officials have pleaded with Kyiv to stop attacks on Russia’s energy infrastructure because of the fears that turmoil in crude markets would send pump prices in the US higher ahead of the presidential elections in November. 

“Our region is again under attack by Ukrainian UAVs,” Smolensk Governor Vasily Anokhin wrote in a post on Telegram on Wednesday. Kamikaze drones damaged oil facilities in western Russia. 

Another drone attack hit the Lipetsk region further south, which is home to steel production plants and pharmaceutical sites, Governor Igor Artamonov said.

“The Kyiv criminal regime tried to hit infrastructure in Lipetsk industrial zone,” Artamonov said. 

The Moscow Times pointed out:

A source in the Ukrainian defense sector confirmed to AFP on Wednesday that drones in the service of the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) had carried out the attacks.

The source made no mention of the attack on Lipetsk but claimed two oil depots were destroyed in the Smolensk region.

“Rosneft lost two storage and pumping bases for fuels and lubricants in the towns of Yartsevo and Rozdorovo,” the source said, referring to the Russian state-controlled energy giant.

The Financial Times, citing unnamed US officials, recently said long-range drones have hit at least 20 energy facilities deep within Russia so far this year. Kyiv’s drone attacks on Russia’s energy complex have been frightening for the Biden administration, as Brent prices have risen to the $90/bbl level on higher war risk premiums. Higher energy costs feed into inflation as stagflation concerns mount in the US. Also, gasoline pump prices in the US are inching closer to the politically sensitive $4 level. 

According to AAA data, the average cost of gas at the pump across the US was $3.66 as of Thursday, up from $3.10 in mid-January. 

“The recent uptick in US consumer price inflation, driven by services, housing and fuel, is already of concern to the Biden administration, which is hoping to secure a second term in the November election,” Markus Korhonen, senior associate at geopolitical risk consultancy S-RM, told Newsweek.

In recent weeks, Brent prices jumped to the $90bbl to $92bbl range on a higher war risk premium as Israel and Iran volleyed missiles and drones at each other. Prices sank to as low as the $85bbl handle as the market saw the Middle East conflict was just theatrics. However, prices have increased from $85bbl earlier this week, to $89.50 on Friday morning – perhaps on new fears of tighter Russia supplies. 

The latest Bloomberg data shows Russian seaborne crude exports hit a multi-month high in the four weeks to April 21. Refineries in the country have struggled to be repaired from the series of drone attacks as oil processing sinks to lows last seen in May 2023 when floods forced the Orsk refinery offline. 

So far, Ukraine has only attacked oil-processing facilities deep within Russia, avoiding crude and crude product export ports. 

“Should Ukraine begin also targeting crude oil facilities, this could threaten Russia’s overall production and exports and, more meaningfully, global oil prices would tick up, driving up inflation and cost-of-living pressures in the US and elsewhere,” said Korhonen, adding, “It would also raise the prospects of Russia retaliating, for example, targeting energy infrastructure that the West relies on.”

The ultimate goal of Ukraine’s drone attacks is to reduce Moscow’s oil revenues that finance the war. This means that Russia’s crude export ports will be targeted at some point. And we’re 100% sure the Biden administration is terrified about this ahead of the elections. 

If that happens, “it would not only bring up the price of oil, it would put a lot of pressure on inflation because of the impact on prices,” said O’Donnell.

The question becomes when does Kyiv begin hitting Russia’s crude export terminals. 

With inflation data surprising to the upside recently…

Source: Bloomberg

…the doves’ last chance for sooner than later rate-cuts is today’s Core PCE Deflator – often described as The Fed’s favorite inflation signal. Last month saw an uptick in the headline deflator and following yesterday’s core PCE rise for Q1, all eyes are on the March data released this morning.

However, both the headline and core PCE Deflator data printed hotter than expected (+2.7% vs +2.6% exp vs +2.5% prior and +2.8% vs +2.7% exp vs +2.8% prior respectively)…

Source: Bloomberg

The silver lining is that this hot PCE print is ‘dovish’ relative to the GDP-based data we saw yesterday, with whisper numbers of +0.4 to +0.5% MoM (vs the +0.3% print).

But still – it’s not good for the doves.

As WSJ Fed Whisperer Nick Timiraos notes, the 3-Month annualized core PCE jumped to 4.4%…

The Service sector led the MoM and YoY acceleration in headline PCE…

Source: Bloomberg

And for Core PCE, it was Services prices too that drove the acceleration…

Source: Bloomberg

The so-called SuperCore – Services inflation ex-Shelter – rose once again, and was revised higher…

Source: Bloomberg

Stripping it back even further, Transportation Services and ‘Other Services’ were the biggest gainers in SuperCore…

Source: Bloomberg

Income and Spending both rose again on a MoM basis with spending outpacing income (again). The 0.8% MoM rise in spending was the highest since Jan 2023…

Source: Bloomberg

Spending is accelerating fast relative to incomes (on a YoY basis) – and remember this is all nominal…

Source: Bloomberg

On the income side, government and private wage growth accelerated:

• Govt wages rose to 8.5% YoY, from 8.3%, the highest Dec 22

• Private wages rose to 5.5% YoY, from 5.4%, highest since Dec 22 as well

Source: Bloomberg

Which meant the personal savings rate plunged to 3.2% from 3.6% – its lowest since Nov 2022…

 

And the soaring credit card balance explains how people are getting by…

Source: Bloomberg

And all this amid the fourth straight month of government handouts…

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, while the markets are exuberant at the survey-based disinflation, we do note that it’s not all sunshine and unicorns. The vast majority of the reduction in inflation has been ‘cyclical’…

Source: Bloomberg

Acyclical Core PCE inflation remains extremely high, although it has fallen from its highs.

Is The (apolitical) Fed going to be able to cut at all this year like Joe Biden said they would?

Authored by Simon White, Bloomberg macro strategist,

A more forthright response from China to its deflationary predicament would further support US inflation that is already proving sticky, adding to longer-term upwards pressure on term premium and thus yields.

There are upside risks to the US PCE release today after the higher-than-expected core-PCE price index released on Thursday.

Inflation is more stubborn than most expected.

That’s proven to be the case even without China so far managing to engineer robust recovery.

The San Francisco Fed separates out core PCE to a cyclical and an acyclical component, with the first being those inputs to PCE most correlated to Fed policy and acyclical is anything left over.

Most of the fall in core inflation has been driven by the acyclical component, while the cyclical has only fallen marginally, inferring that much of the disinflation was not directly down to Fed policy.

The acyclical component, though, is highly correlated to China PPI, i.e. China is a big driver of global inflation pressures. If the country had had stronger recovery, it is likely the US (and other countries) would be contending with a larger inflation problem than they currently have.

That’s why China’s next move is so important. Falling bond yields, in contrast to rising ones in almost every other country, signal the economy is nearing a crunch point. Typically, China has responded with much broader stimulus – reflected in rising M1 growth – when yields have seen such a fall.

If it responds similarly again, inflation pressures in the US will receive an unwelcome boost even as it is already dealing with price growth that is becoming embedded.

In a rollercoaster 48 hours to close the week, yesterday’s early market slump (after the disappointing Meta guidance) has been fully reversed and stock futures are now pointing sharply higher after blockbuster earnings from Microsoft and Alphabet with attention now turning to the release of US personal consumption data – the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, where a hotter-than-expected reading after Thursday’s weaker GDP figures may signal US rates will remain higher for longer. As of 7:40am, S&P futures are 0.7% higher while Nasdaq futures gain 1.1%. The positive sentiment carried into European trading, with tech stocks leading equity gains, with miners outperforming as copper hit $10,000 a ton for the first time in two years. Traders are also speculating as to whether Japan will intervene to support the Yen after the currency slid to a 34-year low before rebounding after the central bank kept rates on hold and Ueda said nothing to prop up the currency in what Deutsche Bank has called a policy of “benign neglect.” Later in the day, attention will shift. Elsewhere, the USD is higher and bond yields are slightly lower. In commodities, oil and precious metals are higher; base metals and Ags are mixed. Today, key focus will be the March PCE release at 8.30am ET, where consensus expects headline PCE and core PCE to both rise +0.3% MoM.

In premarket trading, Google parent Alphabet surged as much as 12%, poised to add more than $230 billion to its market capitalization and exceed $2 trillion in valuation. Microsoft rose 4% after the software giant reported third-quarter results that beat expectations, a sign that AI is fueling growth and demand. The companies trounced Wall Street estimates with their latest quarterly results, fueled in part by demand for AI services.  In other earnings-related moves, Exxon fell 1.2% after missing EPS but smashing revenue estimates, while Intel slumped more than 7% after providing weaker-than-anticipated guidance. Here are some other notable movers:

• Atlassian shares slide 5.3% after the application software company said co-founder Scott Farquhar is stepping down as co-CEO after 23 years.
• Boyd Gaming shares fall 14% after the regional casino operator reported adjusted earnings per share for the first quarter that missed the average analyst estimate.
• Chinese stocks listed in the US rise, reflecting a rally in Hong Kong as Asian big tech names get a boost following robust earnings from Alphabet and Microsoft. Alibaba +2.0%, Baidu +2.6%, PDD Holdings +2.5%, JD.com +5.0%, NetEase +1.7%, Trip.com +3.1%, KE Holdings +3.3%, Bilibili +5.4%
• Cloud software stocks rise following better-than-expected sales in Microsoft and Google’s cloud divisions. Datadog +4.9%, Snowflake +3.5%, MongoDB +3.8%, Cloudflare +2.3%
• Enphase Energy (ENPH US) shares rise 2.9% as Barclays upgrades its recommendation to overweight from equal-weight, saying the solar-equipment manufacturer is nearing an inflection point.
• Intel shares drop 7.3% after the chipmaker’s second-quarter outlook was weaker than anticipated, underlining the difficulties the company has had in executing a turnaround.
• KLA Corp shares rise TKTK after the semiconductor equipment supplier’s third-quarter earnings beat estimates and outlook for the fourth quarter was strong, prompting analysts to raise their price targets.
• Marathon Digital shares rise 3.3% after the company increases year-end hash rate target to 50 EH/s from 35-37 EH/s.
• Mobileye shares fall 3.0% after a downgrade to underweight at Morgan Stanley in the wake of the company’s results.
• Roku shares fall 4.8% as the streaming-video platform company said it expects adjusted Ebitda to moderate in the second half of the year, after reporting first-quarter results that beat expectations.
• Snap shares surge 24% after the social-media company reported first-quarter results that beat expectations and gave an outlook that is stronger than forecast, helping to ease concerns about its growth.
• T-Mobile shares waver after the carrier’s results received a mixed reception from analysts, who said that the earnings were overall solid, but were disappointed that the company didn’t raise its guidance for postpaid phone subscribers as it looks raise prices.
• Teladoc Health shares drop 4.4% after a second-quarter forecast missed estimates. The healthcare services company also reported a first-quarter gross margin that fell short of expectations.

While earnings remain center stage, the focus Friday will also be on US data, with the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation of particular interest. Treasury yields dipped following yesterday’s bond-market losses when stagflationary GDP data pushed back expectations for policy easing. A gauge of the dollar was steady.

“We have a precarious situation where the earnings of a few big companies are driving sentiment on the entire market,” said Justin Onuekwusi, chief investment officer St James Place Management. “We have seen a bit of volatility driven by earnings as well as rate decreases being priced out and that’s likely to continue.”

Almost 80% of S&P 500 firms that have reported so far have beaten analysts’ earnings estimates, according to JPMorgan strategists. Still, stock price reactions have been underwhelming, with better-than-expected results seeing below average upside, while those missing estimates are being penalized by more than usual, the strategists wrote. More than 50% of S&P 500 companies have yet to report.

A big highliight of the overnight session was the latest collapse in the Japanese yen which fell to a fresh cycle low near 157 versus the dollar after the Bank of Japan stood pat on interest rates and Governor Ueda did little to push back against recent weakness in the press conference. The yen’s slump to a record low versus the dollar has left traders on guard for any hints of intervention from Japan. The yen swung sharply from the day’s low to near its high amid jittery trading in the wake of the Bank of Japan’s decision to keep monetary policy unchanged.

“Should the yen fall further from here, like after the BOJ decision in September 2022, the possibility of intervention will increase,” said Hirofumi Suzuki, chief currency strategist at Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp. “It is not the level but it’s the speed that will trigger the action.”

European stocks rose along with US equity futures: the Stoxx 600 is up 0.6%, with technology and construction sectors leading gains, while chemicals and insurance subgroups are the biggest losers. Thyssenkrupp shares jumped after Czech billionaire Daniel Kretinsky’s EP Corporate Group agreed to buy a fifth of the German manufacturer’s troubled steel unit. Miners outperformed as copper hit $10,000 a ton for the first time in two years. Here are the biggest movers Friday:

• Saint-Gobain shares gain as much as 6.3% after the French building-materials producer reported first-quarter sales that were slightly above expectations, according to Oddo. Separately, management is seeing signs of bottoming out for new build markets in Europe
• NatWest rises as much as 5.2% after net interest income and pretax operating profit for the first quarter beat the average analyst estimate
• Amundi soars 7%, most in two years, after the French asset manager reported net inflows for the first quarter that beat the average estimate. Citi analysts expect mid-single digit consensus upgrades. KBW called the results “solid.”
• Electrolux shares gain as much as 7%, the most since December, after first-quarter figures from the Swedish maker of domestic appliances weren’t as bad as feared, with an operating loss of SEK720 million, versus an expected SEK809 million
• Jeronimo Martins soars most in six months after Ebitda margin erosion in 1Q was smaller than analysts expected, showing that Portuguese retailer can withstand competition pressure in Poland as well as negative impact from slowing inflation
• Airbus shares fall as much as 3% to the lowest since early March after its first-quarter results were significantly below estimates, even as the planemaker reiterated its full-year targets
• IMCD’s shares sink as much as 10%, the most since March 2020, after the specialty chemicals and ingredients company reported first-quarter operating Ebita that missed estimates. ING says the story was “underlying quite weak.”
• Hexagon shares fall as much as 4.4% after the software firm reported sales and operating profit that missed estimates, while saying that demand will remain mixed in the near term
• ConvaTec Group shares decline as much as 7.2% after the medical equipment maker was downgraded to reduce by analysts at Peel Hunt, which has growing concerns about its wound care products in the US
• Yara shares fall as much as 6.9%, the lowest intraday since May 2020, after the Norwegian agricultural chemicals firm reported adjusted Ebitda below estimates

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks rose, headed for their best week since November, as investors cheered upbeat earnings from technology firms and sentiment on China continued to improve. Japanese stocks rose as the Bank of Japan left interest rates unchanged. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.8%, with TSMC and Tencent among the biggest boosts. The gauge extended its weekly gains to more than 3%. Stocks rose in mainland China and Hong Kong, with the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index poised for its best week since April 2015. Signs of an improving Chinese economy, better corporate earnings and Bejing’s support measures have spurred inflows from global funds.

• Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. were underpinned by strength in tech and property, while the constructive mood was also facilitated by a meeting between US Secretary of State Blinken and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang where it was stated that the US-China relationship has stabilised although negative factors are building.
• ASX 200 underperformed after the prior day’s losses caught up with the index on return from holiday.
• Nikkei 225 was initially choppy and briefly dipped into negative territory as participants braced for the BoJ policy announcement and whether the central bank flags a reduction in bond buying, but then surged as the central bank kept policy settings unchanged and refrained from any major hawkish surprises.

In FX, the dollar was slightly lower, as all the action was in the Japanese yen which cratered to a fresh 34 year low near 157 versus the dollar after the Bank of Japan stood pat on interest rates and Governor Ueda did little to push back against recent weakness in the press conference. USD/JPY did swing sharply lower to sub-155 before swiftly rebounding in jittery trading amid heightened speculation that authorities may intervene in the market.

In rates, treasuries climbed, paring some of Thursday’s post-data drop. US yields are richer by up to 2bp across long-end of the curve with 5s30s spread around 8bp, tighter by around 1bp on the day; 10-year yields around 4.685%, down 1.5bp on the day with bunds outperforming by 1bp in the sector.

In commodities, oil prices advance, with WTI rising 0.4% to trade near $83.90 a barrel. Spot gold rises 0.7% to around $2,350/oz. Copper hit $10,000 a ton for the first time in two years.

Looking at today’s calendar, the US session highlight is the March personal income/spending (8:30am); we algo get the April revised University of Michigan sentiment (10am) and April Kansas City Fed services activity (11am). Fed members are in self-imposed quiet period ahead of May 1 policy announcement

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 futures up 0.8% to 5,121.00
• STOXX Europe 600 up 0.6% to 505.47
• MXAP up 0.7% to 172.65
• MXAPJ up 0.8% to 536.04
• Nikkei up 0.8% to 37,934.76
• Topix up 0.9% to 2,686.48
• Hang Seng Index up 2.1% to 17,651.15
• Shanghai Composite up 1.2% to 3,088.64
• Sensex down 0.7% to 73,833.99
• Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 1.4% to 7,575.91
• Kospi up 1.1% to 2,656.33
• German 10Y yield little changed at 2.60%
• Euro up 0.2% to $1.0748
• Brent Futures up 0.2% to $89.21/bbl
• Brent Futures up 0.2% to $89.21/bbl
• Gold spot up 0.6% to $2,347.56
• US Dollar Index down 0.10% to 105.49

Top Overnight News

• BOJ leaves rates unchanged, as expected, and retained its guidance from Mar about purchasing gov’t bonds (there had been some speculation of a taper or a hint of one). WSJ
• Japan’s Tokyo CPI for April cools far more than anticipated, coming in +1.8% ex-food/energy vs. the Street +2.7% and down from +2.9% in March. BBG
• China’s foreign minister says the relationship w/the US was starting to stabilize but that “negative factors” were increasing. NBC News
• Eurozone inflation expectations over the next 12 months ticked down to 3% (from 3.1%), hitting the lowest level since Dec 2021. ECB
• The ECB is likely to need extra interest rate cuts if global borrowing costs are pushed up by the US Federal Reserve maintaining its restrictive monetary policy stance, a top eurozone policymaker has said. Fabio Panetta, head of Italy’s central bank, said that if the Fed keeps rates on hold longer than markets expect, or even raises them, it would be “likely to reinforce the case for a rate cut [by the ECB] rather than weakening it”. FT
• Donald Trump’s allies are quietly drafting proposals that would attempt to erode the Federal Reserve’s independence if the former president wins a second term, in the midst of a deepening divide among his advisers over how aggressively to challenge the central bank’s authority. WSJ
• Walmart’s CEO says inflation continues to cool: “At Walmart, we are now seeing prices that are in line with where they were 12 months ago. I haven’t been able to say that for a few years now. The last few weeks, we’ve taken even more prices down in areas like produce and meat and fresh food”. ABC News
• Annualized US core PCE inflation accelerated to 4.5% over the last three months, but underlying trends are less alarming. The Q1 acceleration mostly reflected one-off surprises in acyclical categories where costs pass-through with long lags, and forward-looking indicators are at target-consistent levels. Progress therefore appears delayed but not reversed, and we forecast that core PCE inflation will slow to 2.2% on a sequential annualized basis in 2024Q2-Q4. GIR
• Microsoft and Alphabet jumped premarket after stellar earnings and expectations for a surge in cloud revenue fueled by AI demand. Execs at both companies said they plan to spend more on AI. BBG

Earnings

• Alphabet Inc (GOOGL) Q1 2024 (USD): EPS 1.89 (exp. 1.51), Revenue 80.54bln (exp. 78.59bln); board authorised Co. to repurchase up to an additional 70bln and declared a cash dividend of 0.20/shr. Shares +11.5% in pre-market trade
• Microsoft Corp (MSFT) Q3 2024 (USD): EPS 2.94 (exp. 2.82), Revenue 61.86bln (exp. 60.8bln). Shares +4.1% in pre-market trade
• Intel Corp (INTC) Q1 2024 (USD): Adj. EPS 0.18 (exp. 0.14), Revenue 12.70bln (exp. 12.78bln). Shares -7.5% in pre-market trade
• Snap Inc (SNAP) Q1 2024 (USD): Adj. EPS 0.03 (exp. -0.05), Revenue 1.19bln (exp. 1.12bln). Shares +23.5% in pre-market trade
• TotalEnergies (TTE FP) Q1 (USD): Adj. Net 5.11bln (exp. 5bln). Adj. EBITDA 11.5bln (exp. 11.1bln). Plans a USD 2bln share buyback Q2; Cash flow from operating activities 2.2bln (prev. 5.1bln Y/Y); Dividend +7% Y/Y
• Airbus (AIR FP) Q1 24 (USD): Adj. EBIT 600mln (exp. 789mln), Revenue 12.80bln (exp. 12.87bln), Gross Orders 170 (prev. 156), Net Orders 170 (prev. 142), Deliveries 142. Reaffirms 2024 guidance.

A recap of overnight news courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were mostly higher as the region digested recent market themes including disappointing US data, strong big tech earnings and the BoJ policy announcement. ASX 200 underperformed after the prior day’s losses caught up with the index on return from holiday. Nikkei 225 was initially choppy and briefly dipped into negative territory as participants braced for the BoJ policy announcement and whether the central bank flags a reduction in bond buying, but then surged as the central bank kept policy settings unchanged and refrained from any major hawkish surprises. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. were underpinned by strength in tech and property, while the constructive mood was also facilitated by a meeting between US Secretary of State Blinken and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang where it was stated that the US-China relationship has stabilised although negative factors are building.

Top Asian News

• Chinese Foreign Minister Wang said in a meeting with US Secretary of State Blinken that the China-US relationship has stabilised but negative factors are building, while he added that sliding into conflict with the US would be a lose-lose situation that they ask the US not to interfere with China’s internal affairs. Furthermore, Blinken said there is no substitute for face-to-face diplomacy and they need to avoid miscalculations, while he hopes the US and China can make progress on agreements, citing fentanyl, military-to-military ties and AI risks.
• US is pushing allies in Europe and Asia to tighten restrictions on exports of chip-related technology and tools to China amid rising concerns about Huawei’s development of advanced semiconductors, according to FT sources. US wants Japan, South Korea, and the Netherlands to use existing export controls more aggressively, including stopping engineers from their countries servicing chipmaking tools at fabs in China.
• ByteDance reportedly prefers shutting down the app rather than a sale if it exhausts all legal options and the algorithms TikTok relies on are deemed core to ByteDance’s overall operations, making the sale of the app unlikely, according to Reuters sources.

European bourses, Stoxx 600 (+0.5%) are entirely in the green, though trade has been contained at session highs, as participants await March’s US PCE at 13:30 BST. European sectors are almost entirely in the green, with the exception of Chemicals, following poor IMCD (-9.1%) results. Tech tops the pile, with optimism lifted following strong large-cap Tech earnings in the US. US Equity Futures (ES +0.7%, NQ +0.9%, RTY +0.1%) are entirely in the green, with the NQ outperforming, benefitting from significant pre-market strength in both Google (+11.1%) and Microsoft (+3.6%), after reporting strong earnings after-market.

Top European News

• ECB’s Panetta said they must weigh the risk of monetary policy becoming too tight, while he added that timely and small rate cuts would counter weak demand and could be paused. Furthermore, he stated that hesitations in adjusting rates would hurt investment and productivity, while large rate cuts could create a credibility issue.
• ECB Consumer Inflation Expectations survey (Mar) – 12-months ahead 3.0% (prev. 3.1%); 3-year ahead 2.5% (prev. 2.5%). Economic growth expectations for the next 12 months 1.1% (prev. -1.1%)
• SNB Chair Jordan said SNB has been successful in fight against inflation; uncertainty remains elevated and shocks can occur at and time

BOJ

• BoJ kept its policy settings unchanged with the short-term interest rate target at 0.0%-0.1%, as expected, with the decision made unanimously, while it dropped the reference from the statement that it currently buys about JPY 6tln worth of JGBs per month but stated that it will conduct JGB, commercial paper and corporate bond buying in line with the decision in March. BoJ said it must be vigilant to FX and market moves and their impact on the economy and prices but noted no excessive behaviour is seen in Japan’s asset market and financial institutions’ practices. Furthermore, it stated that if trend inflation rises, the BoJ will likely adjust the degree of monetary easing but also added to expect accommodative monetary conditions to continue for the time being. In terms of the latest Outlook Report, Board Members’ Real GDP median forecast for Fiscal 2024 was cut to 0.8% from 1.2% but the Fiscal 2025 median forecast was maintained at 1.0%, while the Core CPI Fiscal 2024 median forecast was raised to 2.8% from 2.4% and Fiscal 2025 median forecast was raised to 1.9% from 1.8%.
• PRESS CONFERENCE: BoJ Governor Ueda said easy financial conditions will be maintained for the time being; Weak JPY so far is not having a big impact on trend inflation. Difficult to gauge timing of future rate hikes. Weak JPY so far is not having a big impact on trend inflation. Reduction in JGB buying in the future is in sight. Will not comment on FX moves

FX

• USD is around flat, and holding within a 105.40-71 range. USD was initially being propped up by JPY softness post-BoJ, although that has abated somewhat, amid Yen intervention speculation.
• JPY is the clear laggard across the majors following the BoJ policy announcement overnight, which provided no hawkish surprise. USD/JPY took another leg higher amid BoJ Ueda’s press conference, before being slapped down to sub-155 levels, a few hours later. Some will likely view the move as intervention but we are yet to see any official confirmation of this.
• EUR is flat vs. the USD and breached yesterday’s 1.0740 best. If the pair ventures higher, 1.0756 from April 11th is the next potential target.
• Antipodeans are firmer vs. the USD and outmuscling peers alongside the favourable risk environment. AUD/USD has gained a firmer footing above its 200 and 50DMAs at 0.6526 and 0.6532 respectively with focus now on a potential approach of 0.66
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1056 vs exp. 7.2449 (prev. 7.1058).

Fixed Income

• USTs are a touch firmer after yesterday’s data induced losses, which sent the Jun’24 UST to a contract low of 107.04. Today’s trade has been contained within a 107.04-108.01 range, with all eyes on March’s US PCE metrics later.
• Bund price action has been following USTs and attempting to recoup recently lost ground which has been inspired this week by a combination of better data and speak from hawkish ECB members. Bunds are so far respecting yesterday’s 129.53-130.38 range.
• Gilts are firmer and in-fitting with global peers in an attempt to claw back recent losses. However, with a lack of UK-specific drivers, UK paper will likely remain at the whim of global peers.

Commodities

• A relatively tame session thus far for the crude complex following Thursday’s choppy trade, as participants await monthly US PCE metrics; Brent Jun’24 range between 89.08-69/bbl.
• Precious metals are firmer amid the softer Dollar and ahead of the US PCE data, with spot silver narrowly leading vs spot gold. XAU topped yesterday’s peak (USD 2,344.93/oz) to trade in a current intraday range between USD 2,326.36-2,352.30/oz.
• Base metals are stronger across the board amid bullish momentum after copper crossed key levels, with the broader complex underpinned by the softer Dollar and broader risk appetite; 3M LME copper is posting gains of over USD 100/t at the time of writing after mounting the key USD 10,000/t mark to levels last seen in 2022.
• India Oil Minister said cartel of oil producers are responsible for current volatility in the market; oil producers are cutting down and holding back production, according to ETNow.

Geopolitics: Middle East

• “US Secretary of State Blinken to visit Israel on Tuesday”, according to Sky News Arabia
• Hezbollah said it shelled an Israeli force with artillery at the site of Al-Malikiyah and achieved a direct hit, according to Al Jazeera.

Geopolitics: Other

• US official said the US could announce as soon as Friday USD 6bln in new weapon purchases for Ukraine.
• North Korean leader Kim supervised the test-firing of multiple launch rockets, according to KCNA.
• China’s Defence Ministry said Chinese and French militaries established a dialogue mechanism for cooperation between theatre commands, according to Reuters.

US Event Calendar

• 08:30: March PCE Deflator MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.3%
  • March PCE Core Deflator MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.3%
  • March PCE Deflator YoY, est. 2.6%, prior 2.5%
  • March PCE Core Deflator YoY, est. 2.7%, prior 2.8%
• 08:30: March Personal Income, est. 0.5%, prior 0.3%
  • March Personal Spending, est. 0.6%, prior 0.8%
  • March Real Personal Spending, est. 0.3%, prior 0.4%
• 10:00: April U. of Mich. Sentiment, est. 77.9, prior 77.9
  • April U. of Mich. Current Conditions, prior 79.3
  • April U. of Mich. Expectations, prior 77.0
  • April U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation, prior 3.1%
  • April U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation, est. 3.0%, prior 3.0%
• 11:00: April Kansas City Fed Services Activ, prior 7

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

It’s been a volatile 24 hours in markets, but in spite of a selloff yesterday, there’s increasing positivity this morning thanks to strong results from Microsoft and Alphabet after last night’s close. Both companies exceeded revenue and earnings expectations, with Alphabet seeing the larger beat on profitability, as their growth was boosted by demand for cloud computing and AI-related offerings. That’s seen Alphabet rise by over 11% in after-hours trading, while Microsoft is up more than -4%, having both been down in the main session yesterday. In turn, futures on the S&P 500 are currently up +0.81%, which is a significant turnaround from yesterday, as the index closed -0.46% lower, and that was only after recovering from initial losses that had pushed it down -1.60%.

That positivity has continued into Asian markets overnight, which comes as the Bank of Japan left their interest rates unchanged at their latest meeting. That’s seen the Japanese Yen weaken further, and it’s currently trading at 156.11 per dollar, which is its weakest level since 1990. Front-end government bond yields have also fallen overnight in Japan, with the 2yr yield down -0.7bps to 0.29%. And for equities, all the major indices have risen, including the Nikkei (+0.74%), the KOSPI (+1.10%), the Hang Seng (+1.98%), the CSI 300 (+1.03%) and the Shanghai Comp (+0.79%).

Before that overnight reversal, markets had struggled yesterday, as challenging data and poor earnings led to a notable selloff. That meant investors pushed back the timing of rate cuts yet again, and the 2yr Treasury yield (+7.1bps) closed at 4.998%, so almost at 5% for the first time since mid-November. That was mainly driven by the Q1 US GDP release, which had the unfortunate combination of a downside surprise on growth, and an upside surprise on inflation. As we found out in 2022, that stagflationary mix can potentially be a bad recipe for markets, so it wasn’t a surprise to see equities and bonds lose ground simultaneously even if equities have since been busy making up their initial losses.

In terms of the details, growth came in at an annualised rate of +1.6% (vs. +2.5% expected), which is the slowest growth since Q2 2022. But more alarmingly for markets, core PCE surprised on the upside, with an annualised rate of +3.7% in Q1 (vs. +3.4% expected). Headline PCE was also strong, at +3.4% in Q1, and core services ex housing (a measure Fed Chair Powell has cited in the past) was at +5.1%. So whichever way you crunch the numbers, this clearly isn’t the sort of inflation momentum where the Fed could be comfortable cutting rates. We’ll get the monthly US PCE numbers for March today within the spending report as well. If you’re looking for positives on growth, final private domestic sales came in at 3.1%, with the slowing in headline GDP growth coming from net exports, inventories and government spending. So domestic demand still holding up well. However you could argue that just ties in with the strong inflation component.

Unsurprisingly, that release meant markets dialled back the odds of rate cuts anytime soon. For instance, the chance of a rate cut by the July meeting fell from 50% the previous day to 34% afterwards. And for the year as a whole, futures are now pricing in just 34bps of cuts by the December meeting, down from 43bps the previous day and 67bps at the start of the month. So futures are now pricing the most hawkish profile we’ve seen to date in this hiking cycle, at least in terms of where rates are set to be by the end of 2024. Indeed for the first time, the first 25bp cut isn’t fully priced in until the December 2024 meeting.

With investors pricing out rate cuts, US Treasuries slumped and yields hit their highest levels of 2024 so far. In particular, the 2yr Treasury yield (+7.1bps) saw a closing value of 4.998%, having reached 5.02% intra-day. And similarly, the 10yr yield was up +6.2bps to 4.70%, although this morning it’s since come down -1.0bps to 4.69%. Bear in mind that just after Christmas, the 10yr yield hit an intraday low of 3.78%, so it’s moved up by almost 100bps from that point now. At the same time, there was a decent spike in real yields, with the 10yr real yield (+4.4bps) reaching a post-November high of 2.28%.

That trend was echoed in Europe, where investors lowered their expectations for ECB rate cuts this year, and now see just 68bps of cuts by December’s meeting, down -5.5bps on the day. As in the US, that meant 10yr yields hit new YTD highs, with those on 10yr bunds (+4.1bps) up to 2.63%, 10yr OATs (+3.7bps) up to 3.13%, and 10yr gilts (+2.8bps) up to 4.36%. For now at least, a June rate cut from the ECB is still seen as an 84% probability, but from Monday we’ll start to get the flash CPI prints for April, so it’ll be interesting to see if that changes anything.

For equities, this backdrop meant it was a tough day across the board even if the recovery was steady as the US session progressed. All the major indices fell, including the S&P 500 (-0.46%), the NASDAQ (-0.64%) and the Dow Jones (-0.98%). Rebounds by Nvidia (+3.71%) and Tesla (+4.97%) helped limit and reverse the earlier larger losses. But Meta (-10.56%) was the worst performer in the entire S&P 500 following its earnings release the previous day, meaning that the Magnificent 7 (-1.19%) underperformed despite the gains for Nvidia and Tesla. IBM (-8.25%) lost significant ground after its release the previous evening as well.

Over in Europe, the STOXX 600 (-0.64%) also saw a decent decline, although the FTSE 100 (+0.48%) was again an exception as it hit another record high, aided by a surge in Anglo American (+16.10%), which was the index’s best performer after BHP proposed a takeover. The proposed deal would bring together two of the world’s largest mining companies and create a clear number one globally. Our mining team think the deal rationale is about global scale and growth in copper, a structurally tight commodity which is key to future global electrification. Copper prices have risen by +17.6% so far this year, and overnight they’re trading at their highest level since April 2022. The mining team’s note (link here) runs through the deal terms and other talking points.

Looking at yesterday’s other data, the US weekly initial jobless claims fell to 207k in the week ending April 20 (vs. 215k expected), which is their lowest level in a couple of months. Otherwise, pending home sales grew by +3.4% in March (vs. +0.4% expected), reaching a 13-month high.

To the day ahead now, and data releases include US PCE inflation for March, along with personal income and personal spending. In addition, there the University of Michigan’s final consumer sentiment index for April, and in the Euro Area, we’ll get the M3 money supply for March. Finally, earnings releases include Exxon Mobil and Chevron.

Authored by George Ford Smith via The Mises Institute,

The first thing to know about Dr. Thomas E. Woods, Jr.’s’ book Our Enemy, the Fed is he’s giving it away. Click the link, get your copy and read the whole book. Clearly, such intellectual charity is not only rare but in the educational spirit of Mises.org. The subject matter is light-heavy but Woods, author of the bestseller Meltdown (reviewed here), navigates it with the smooth skill of a master, making the reader experience satisfying from beginning to end.

The title reflects another insight, paralleling as it does Albert Jay Nock’s Our Enemy, the State. Most of us were raised to believe government and its agencies serve our best interests. As libertarian scholarship has shown the truth is the exact opposite, particularly with government’s sleazy relationship with money and banking.

Admittedly, it’s a hard idea to accept since it involves a pernicious breach of trust, but Woods makes it abundantly clear. To our overlords we are easily-duped chattel.

Until Ron Paul decided to run for president and his End the Fed came along in 2009, the general public was mostly blind to the Fed’s existence. Austrians aside, the few who knew something about it — mostly university-trained economists on the take from the Fed — considered it a vital part of an advanced industrial economy. Yet the Fed had been around for 96 years when Dr. Paul’s book emerged. Given that it’s in charge of the money we use how did it remain in the shadows for tax-burdened citizens for nearly a century? What’s up with that?

The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis tells us the Fed’s congressional assignment is “to promote maximum employment and price stability.” (Bold in original) For these it talks about interest rates, and its aim is to increase the money supply so that prices rise gently at or around a 2 percent rate. 

How gentle is a two percent rate? After 10 years of two percent monetary inflation, it would take $121.90 to buy what $100 bought in year one. But that’s over a decade, and you might not notice it unless you’re one of the hungry poor not on welfare. The Fed’s inflation of the money supply has been ongoing since it began operations in 1914, draining 96 percent of the dollar’s purchasing power.

On what planet is a 96 percent devaluation considered stability? Its real purpose is to inflate then assure us it makes good sense. Never mind the boom – bust cycle it creates along with the debauchery of our currency. We’re being gaslighted. Where did all the newly-created money go? 

Dr. Paul, who had a long career in Congress whose confrontations with Fed Chairmen Alan Greenspan and Ben Bernanke have become legendary in libertarian circles, tells us:

Law permits this highly secretive, private bank to create credit at will and distribute it as it sees fit.

The chairman of the Federal Reserve can blatantly inject in a public hearing that he has no intention of revealing where the newly created credit goes and who benefits. When asked, he essentially answered, “It’s none of your business,” saying that it would be “counterproductive” to do so. [My italics]

The picture I get is of people in a hideout somewhere — in this case, the FOMC meeting in the Eccles building in Washington, D.C. — cranking out money then injecting it into the economy in some mysterious manner, while telling us in Keynesian doublespeak their operations keep us safe and prosperous.

Is it really hard to fathom that those in charge might be up to no good?

Woods comes out swinging

After defining the Federal Reserve System — the Fed — as the American central bank enjoying “a government-granted monopoly on the creation of legal-tender money,” Woods proceeds to evaluate the Fed from a broad or macro perspective. 

What exactly did the Fed fix? Christina Romer who served under Obama as Chair of his Council of Economic Advisors found that “recessions were in fact not more frequent in the pre-Fed than the post-Fed period.” Even comparing the periods of 1796-1915 to post-WW II — thus omitting the Great Depression of 1930-1945 — “economist Joseph Davis finds no appreciable difference between the length and duration of recessions as compared to the period of the Fed.”

Woods takes us back through American history to see how banking and credit developed. Government, which has no money of its own, befriends ones that have it. During the period between the expiration of the first Bank of the US and the creation of the Second Bank of the US — 1811-1817 — the government granted banks the privilege of expanding credit unsecured by deposits while allowing them to tell depositors attempting to withdraw their money to “come back in a couple of years.” While banks could be charged with legal counterfeiting and embezzlement, Woods does not use the terms. In fact, nowhere in the book does he use the words “counterfeit” or “embezzle.”

When the Second Bank of the US started inflating in 1817 it created the Panic of 1819. He writes:

The lesson of that sorry episode — namely, that the economy gets taken on a wild and unhealthy ride when the money supply is dramatically and artificially increased and then suddenly reduced — was so obvious that even the political class managed to figure it out.

Many inflationists before the panic became hard-money believers after. Condy Raguet and Daniel Raymond, a disciple of Alexander Hamilton, became hard-money advocates and wrote books on economics. John Quincy Adams cited the hard-money Bank of Amsterdam “as a a model to emulate.”

But the inflationists persisted and pushed for more government intervention, and Unit banking in particular:

In the nineteenth century, nearly all American states instituted a regulation known as unit banking, which limited all banks to a single office. No branch banking was allowed, whether intrastate or interstate. The obvious result was a very fragile and undiversified banking system in which banks could be brought to ruin if local conditions turned sour.

Fractional-reserve banking is a major cause of bank panics. But the US went further. Other countries did not “cripple their banking systems” with unit banking laws. Canada, in particular, had no unit banking laws and no banking panics. The Bank of Canada did not emerge until 1934:

As Milton Friedman was fond of pointing out, although the Great Depression claimed over 9,000 American banks, the number of banks that failed in Canada at that time was zero. American bank panics, it turns out, were in large part the result of government intervention — in the form of unit banking — in the first place.

Yet it was the market and the imposed pseudo-gold standard that took the blame, and Americans got Hoover’s meddling then FDR’s New Deal.

Later in the book Woods mentions the hands-off approach to the depression of 1920-1921, “which saw unemployment shoot up to 12.4 percent and production decline by 17 percent. Wholesale prices fell by 56 percent.” And the Fed kept its printing press quiet. According to the National Bureau of Economic Research the depression was over by the summer of 1921.

Falling prices are bad?

One of the strongest parts of Woods’ book is his treatment of deflation — falling prices. It is only in the inflationary world of larcenous economics that falling prices are the “It” to be avoided.

A few of the points he makes:

• Increasing the money supply to support increased production is a fallacy. “Any supply of money can facilitate any number of transactions.”

• The money supply under a hard money system grows “relatively slowly, and the supply of other goods and services increases more rapidly. With these goods and services more abundant with respect to money, their prices fall.”

• The claim that people would stop buying things if they knew prices would fall ignores the fact that people “value goods in the present more highly than they do the same goods in the future. This factor offsets the desire to wait indefinitely for a lower price.”

• If deflation is anticipated entrepreneurs and the firms they deal with would adjust their bids accordingly.

• With the increase in money’s purchasing power people could save simply by hoarding.

• Who’s hurt the most by deflation? The power centers in society — government and Wall Street. We hear hysteria over deflation because it hurts the establishment the most, “and only the mildest concern about inflation, which hurts everyone else.”

Conclusion

Tom Woods has published another gem and is giving it away. The war we’re fighting now depends for its outcome on sound information and, as always, personal integrity. Never forget, the Fed must go. His book provides much of the intellectual ammunition needed to neutralize the enemy and avoid repeating the mistakes that brought us this mess in the first place.

Seizing assets? Two can play at that game…

Just days after Washington voted to authorize the REPO Act – paving the way for the Biden administration confiscate billions in Russian sovereign assets which sit in US banks – it appears Moscow has a plan of its own (let’s call it the REVERSE REPO Act) as a Russian court has ordered the seizure of $440 million from JPMorgan.

The seizure order follows from Kremlin-run lender VTB launching legal action against the largest US bank to recoup money stuck under Washington’s sanctions regime.

As The FT reports, the order, published in the Russian court register on Wednesday, targets funds in JPMorgan’s accounts and shares in its Russian subsidiaries, according to the ruling issued by the arbitration court in St Petersburg.

The assets had been frozen by authorities in the wake of the western sanctions, and highlights some of the fallout western companies are feeling from the punitive measures against Moscow.

Specifically, The FT notes that the dispute centers on $439mn in funds that VTB held in a JPMorgan account in the US.

When Washington imposed sanctions on the Kremlin-run bank, JPMorgan had to move the funds to a separate escrow account. Under the US sanctions regime, neither VTB nor JPMorgan can access the funds.

In response, VTB last week filed a lawsuit against the New York-based group to get Russian authorities to freeze the equivalent amount in Russia, warning that JPMorgan was seeking to leave Russia and would refuse to pay any compensation.

The following day, JPMorgan filed its own lawsuit against the Russian lender in a US court to prevent a seizure of its assets, arguing that it had no way to reclaim VTB’s stranded US funds to compensate its own potential losses from the Russian lawsuit.

Yesterday’s decision sided with VTB, ordering the seizure of funds in JPMorgan’s Russian accounts and “movable and immovable property,” including its stake of a Russian subsidiary.

JPMorgan said it faced “certain and irreparable harm” from VTB’s efforts, exposed to a nearly half-billion-dollar loss, for merely abiding by U.S. sanctions.

The order was the latest example of American banks getting caught between the demands of Western sanctions regimes and overseas interests. Last summer, a Russian court froze about $36mn worth of assets owned by Goldman following a lawsuit by state-owned bank Otkritie. A few months later the court ruled that the Wall Street investment bank had to pay the funds to Otkritie.

The tit-for-tat continues.

Just as President Biden was signing into effect the newly approved foreign defense package which includes $60 billion for Ukraine, the United Kingdom also rolled out its own massive aid package (though paling in comparison), first unveiled Tuesday.

Britain announced its single largest aid package for Ukraine yet, at the equivalent of $620 million (£500 million). According to UK NATO officials, the arms include Storm Shadow missiles among a total of 1,600 strike and air defense missiles, four million rounds of ammo, 60 boats, and over 400 vehicles.

Even though the White House is busy cautioning that in the coming months Russia is likely to make more gains on the front lines, according to fresh words of Jake Sullivan, British leadership is still talking about “winning”.

Defense Minister Grant Shapps, for example, had this to say about new aid: “This record package of military aid will give President Zelensky and his brave nation more of the kit they need to kick Putin out and restore peace and stability in Europe.”

“The UK was the first to provide NLAW missiles, the first to give modern tanks, and the first to send long-range missiles,” he added. “Now, we are going even further. We will never let the world forget the existential battle Ukraine is fighting, and with our enduring support, they will win.”

Britain’s military leadership is also echoing this optimism, with UK defense chief, Admiral Sir Tony Radakin, telling Financial Times that the West’s new infusion of military aid will help Ukraine increase its long-range strikes on Russian territory:

Ukraine is set to increase long-range attacks inside Russia as an influx of western military aid aims to help Kyiv shape the war “in much stronger ways”, the head of the UK military has said.

Admiral Sir Tony Radakin acknowledged the downbeat mood surrounding Ukraine’s defence in an interview with the Financial Times, admitting the country was facing a “difficult” fight to repel advancing Russian forces.

But Britain’s chief of defence, a key figure in the west’s military support for Kyiv, stressed that such a gloomy “snapshot” of the war failed to recognise longer trends more in Kyiv’s favour.

Adm. Radakin continued, “As Ukraine gains more capabilities for the long-range fight . . . its ability to continue deep operations will [increasingly] become a feature” of the war. He emphasized of new weapons systems, “they definitely have an effect.”

UK leadership has of late put the country’s defense industry on a “war footing” in preparation to support Kiev for the long haul. More of Radakin’s words point to escalation (and not negotiations) in the following…

“Don’t expect anyone to say publicly ‘this is the plan’ and A, B and C are now going to happen,” he told FT. Some aspect of Ukraine’s strategy and operations “will be hidden . . . some will be dictated by a tactical or operational advantage, and some also depends on more foundational aspects,” he added.

Nowhere in the UK defense chief’s interview was acknowledgement that these policies could lead to runaway escalation, and an eventual direct confrontation between nuclear-armed powers. The Kremlin has in response vowed that it will take more territory in Ukraine in order to counteract the longer range of NATO missiles.

Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack,

Polish President Andrzej Duda revealed in an interview that the Central Communication Port (CPK by its Polish abbreviation) transportation megaproject outside of Warsaw has dual military purposes.

He represents Poland’s prior conservative-nationalist government but remains in office despite the liberal-globalist opposition’s victory at the polls last fall since his term doesn’t expire till next year.

Duda’s latest claim makes Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s decision to pause and audit the CPK even more scandalous.

It was analyzed here at the time that he was economically subordinating Poland to Germany after having already done so on the political and military fronts, which lent credence to conservative-nationalist chieftain Jaroslaw Kaczynski’s warning late last year that Tusk is actually a “German agent”. Tusk then subordinated his country to its neighbor on the educational, judicial, and diplomatic fronts, all of which is being done on the pretext of implementing various “reforms”.

The end result is that Poland now plays an indispensable role in Germany’s “Fortress Europe” that was elaborated upon here, but Duda’s unexpected revelation about the CPK’s dual military purpose might reverse some of the tempo by putting grassroots and external pressure on Tusk to approve the CPK. Most Poles are in favor of this transport megaproject according to the latest polls that Duda’s interlocutor cited, while the US has an interest in using Poland as an anti-Russian military launchpad.

Here’s exactly what Duda said according to Google Translate:

“It is no secret to anyone, and I emphasize this: If a situation of potential danger for Poland were to occur, and the relocation of additional allied forces to Poland would be necessary to defend our territory, we do not currently have an airport that would be able to provide such support for the West to quickly come to Poland.”

This reminder is meant to imply that Tusk is harming NATO’s contingency plans for partisan reasons.

It’s also a dog whistle harkening back to what the former conservative-nationalist government’s Defense Minister claimed about his liberal-globalist predecessors regarding Tusk’s defensive plans during his prior two terms in office. Mariusz Blaszczak alleged that Tusk’s government planned to withdraw west of the Vistula River in the political fantasy that Russia invaded Poland until NATO reinforcements arrived and claimed to have the classified documents to prove it too.

Tusk’s previous time in power was marked by the arguably German-advised Russian-Polish rapprochement that was meant to create a “Europe from Lisbon to Vladivostok” during the halcyon era of Russian-EU relations. Those hopes were obviously dashed as everyone now knows, after which Tusk’s conservative-nationalist successors never wasted an opportunity to speculate that his pragmatic policy at the time was due to secret Russian influence over his government.

Blaszczak’s allegation should be seen in that light just like Duda’s reminder should too. Their conservative-nationalist movement sought to exploit political Russophobia in Polish society ahead of the elections to remain in power, but even though that didn’t work, they haven’t learned their lesson and are now trying to employ it yet again in their attempt to return to power one day. That said, it’s indeed important for Poles to be aware of both facts, after which they can make up their own mind.

Revealing allegedly classified details about outdated Polish national defense policy is one thing, while raising awareness of how possibly canceling the country’s largest megaproject in recent memory could impact national security in theoretical contingencies (not to mention killing lots of jobs) is another.

The first disclosure didn’t succeed in reshaping popular perceptions of the liberal-globalists whereas the second stands a greater chance of success of doing so even though it’s too early to conclude that it will.  

Another point to pay attention to is that this isn’t the first time that Duda dropped a bombshell about a significant issue. Earlier in April, he told Lithuanian media that foreign companies own most of Ukraine’s industrial agriculture, thus confirming what had previously been reported but denied by the West. He therefore has a habit of being very candid about issues that he sincerely believes are of immense importance for Poland’s objective national interests.

Regardless of whatever the reader’s opinion might be about the likelihood of Duda’s scenario unfolding, which concerns Poland relying on the CPK to serve as the port of entry for a large-scale NATO intervention in the event of a Russian invasion, his point about that megaproject is militarily and strategically sound. It’ll be very difficult for Tusk to argue against it after he himself jumped on the Russia-bashing bandwagon since returning to power and continues fearmongering about its intentions.

He even jumped the shark last month by sensationally claiming that “we are in a pre-war era” that he compared to the run-up to World War II, thus suggesting whether sincerely or not that he supposedly believes that it’s possible for Russia to invade Poland in the coming future. If he ultimately decides to cancel the CPK despite Duda reminding him of its dual military purposes, then he’d discredit his previous fearmongering about Russia, which is the pretext for justifying Poland’s subordination to Germany.

Tusk’s hands might be tied, however, since the combination of grassroots and external (US/NATO) pressure might be enough to get him to reconsider weaponizing the CPK as part of his partisan war against his conservative-nationalist opponents under whom this megaproject was initiated. In any case, Duda inadvertently vindicated those Russian observers who long suspected that the CPK had dual military purposes, thus proving that they were right about Poland’s real plans all along.

A surge in restaurant traffic boosted Chipotle Mexican Grill’s first-quarter earnings and revenue, topping the average estimate of Wall Street analysts tracked by Bloomberg on Wednesday.

Shares are higher by more than 5% in the cash session on Thursday. However, this note will not expand on earnings. Instead, we will focus on a letter from the company to employees stating: Stop eating chicken during lunch and dinner meals because soaring demand has collided with dwindling poultry supply—and the need to preserve supply urgently. 

Bloomberg obtained the letter Chief Restaurant Officer Scott Boatwright sent employees last week. He told them:

“Due to its sustained strong sales we need your help to keep up with our guests’ demand for this popular protein option.” 

Boatwright told store managers and hot-side and cold-side kitchen employees not to order chicken or chicken al pastor with their free or discounted employee meals. Even white-collar Chipotle workers were told not to order chicken. 

The message read, “Let’s Conserve Our Fan-Favorite Chicken.” Execs did not give a timeline for boosting the chicken supply. The letter aimed to “preserve our supply of Adobo Chicken for our guests.” 

Chief Corporate Affairs and Food Safety Officer Laurie Schalow told Bloomberg in an emailed statement:

“Due to the high demand for chicken in our restaurants and sustained success of our limited-time offer chicken al pastor, we temporarily asked all of our employees at corporate and in-restaurants to select another protein option for their meals to preserve our supply.” 

The Chipotle mobile app shows no disruptions to any protein option on the menu. 

Harper McNamara, an employee in Michigan at the only unionized Chipotle US store, was quoted by Bloomberg as saying the company’s move was a slap in the face to its workforce: “It’s disrespectful, just on a personal level.” 

By Julianne Geiger of OilPrice.com

In a move that could reshape Europe’s energy landscape, the European Commission is poised to propose new sanctions targeting Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports.

According to Reuters sources close to the matter, the proposed measures will include a ban on shipments within the EU and sanctions on three Russian LNG projects.

The European Commission’s decision comes amid growing concerns over Europe’s reliance on Russian energy, particularly in the wake of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. While the EU imposed a ban on Russian seaborne oil imports earlier this year, it has thus far refrained from taking similar action against LNG imports. However, with imports of Russian LNG surging since the start of the war, accounting for around 15% of EU gas supply, pressure has been mounting on Brussels to act.

The proposed ban on trans-shipments within the EU is aimed at preventing the diversion of Russian LNG cargoes to other destinations. Currently, Belgium, France, and Spain are the largest importers of Russian LNG, with many of these imports being re-exported to other countries, including China. By imposing restrictions on trans-shipments, the EU hopes to ensure that Russian LNG does not find its way to markets outside of Europe.

In addition to the ban on trans-shipments, the European Commission is also considering sanctions on three Russian LNG projects – Arctic LNG 2, Ust Luga, and Murmansk. While the details of these sanctions are still being discussed, they are expected to target projects that are not yet operational, further complicating Russia’s efforts to expand its LNG exports.

The move by the European Commission reflects growing unease within the EU over its dependence on Russian energy. With tensions between Russia and the West showing no signs of abating, European policymakers are increasingly looking for ways to reduce Europe’s exposure to Russian energy supplies. By targeting Russian LNG imports, the EU hopes to send a clear message to Moscow that its actions in Ukraine will not go unpunished.

However, the proposed sanctions are likely to face resistance from some EU member states, particularly those that are heavily reliant on Russian energy. Nevertheless, with pressure mounting on Brussels to take action, it seems increasingly likely that Europe’s energy landscape could be in for a significant shake-up in the coming months.