Category: zerohedge

Crushing VIX & The Flip-Flopping Narrative Of The Bulls

Authored by Sven Henrich via NorthmanTrader.com,

Every week the village gathers and watches the regularly scheduled public crushing of Mr. $VIX. It doesn’t matter what happens in the world during the week, it doesn’t matter what economic reports may bring, or what earnings reports may miss. Every single Friday, irrespective of any new data, Mr. $VIX is found guilty and crushed to death. I’ve been making light of the predictability of it all on twitter by calling the program Risk Free Friday the past few weeks.

Why? Well, because it’s self-evidently true:

Indeed in the most recent weeks we can observe that markets make little progress during the week and most, if not all, gains for the week are coming via a magic overnight gap, ramp and camp on Fridays during which the $VIX is relentlessly crushed:

What do you call a market that behaves the same way on a particular day every week? Predictable for one which of course breeds opportunity. Who wouldn’t want to know the outcome of a market on a particular day every week?

Welcome back to market price discovery driven by central planning committee and artificial liquidity. China is pumping stimulus, central banks are dovish and buybacks are running wild. It’s the same program we’ve seen for years that has traders sitting on their hands watching volatility compression producing tight intra-day ranges while rendering incoming data irrelevant.

It’s the same volatility compression program that invariably produces an energy release of size:

But note the program is weakening. Over the past couple of weeks I’ve been pointing to the 2800-2820 range as being key resistance. This week $SPX managed to squeeze to 2813 before reverting and trying again on Friday and closing at 2804. Note it takes an ever lower $VIX to eek out these gains. With a $VIX now at 13.5 and a big open gap at 24+ the $VIX is setting up for a rebellion.

I’ve outlined the pullback case on Thursday on Trading Nation:

Here’s the updated wedge on $DJIA as of Friday’s close:

I repeat: This is not a pattern of a stable bull market. This remains a potential topping pattern of size. Bulls absolutely need new highs and this rally remains absolutely uncorrected, it is only after this rally gets tested that one can make some judgement calls about the true nature of this market.

We saw an initial break of the wedge patterns and a retest, but so far no breakout in volatility.

On $SPX we see a weakening in momentum as well and MACD has crossed over with plenty of room to go should a break confirm:

$SPX printed its first weekly red candle right at the 2009 trend line:

Note the repetitive nature of volatility compression patterns that lead to eventual breakouts of the $VIX.

I also note that there is a divergence between high yield credit and $SPX. For much of 2018 there was a direct relationship between $JNK and $SPX, if $JNK made new highs so did $SPX. Not this time. Thanks to the Powell cave $JNK exploded to new highs. $SPX has not. It’s a divergence:

As I said last year in lead up to Lying Highs, divergences won’t matter until they do, but when they do they will have been a big warning flag and pack a punch. Bulls chose to ignore the divergences in September of last year and got hammered. They are ignoring them again, so strong is the faith in the Fed.

Indeed let’s just be honest here. Every single market strategist that’s coming out with bullish forecasts for the rest of the year and was bullish last year and is now bullish again all citing the Fed pivot:

Why? Because the Fed’s been the go to Daddy when junior gets in trouble for the past 10 years. So what if Q1 GDP is slowing to below 1%? So what if none of these strategists had predicted this steep slowing of economic growth? None had predicted an earnings recession, but now they all call it baked in. A temporary trough.

If that’s what happens, fine, but don’t call it value added analysis. Call it what it is: You got bailed out by the Fed again.

It’s a good gig I have to admit. Always predict higher prices and on the occasional ‘oops’ central banks step in again and one can look like a genius again:

And because this intervention game keeps working one has to give credence to the argument that indeed we’re simply seeing a repeat.

January and February were relentless jammed higher in price and before you know it you’re looking at a year where price discovery relentlessly drifts higher with the occasional emerging dips getting bought. After all who can forget 2013 under QE3:

From my perch it remains too soon to make that presumption. As I’ve stated the rally needs to be tested first.

For now it remains massively overbought:

And the wedge patterns remain pronounced with negative divergences emerging, see here $BPSPX as another example:

This past week we saw a black candle on $SPX:

Over the past year these subtle black candles signaled a coming test or end of the prior uptrends with moves either into the middle or lower Bollinger bands.

Given the massive size of the recent rally in connection with the many open gaps below fib levels signal the possibility of sizable retrace potential:

Any of these fib zones could offer support and renewed rallying points in the weeks ahead once a turn is confirmed.

Note I’m pointing out the 1.618 fib as a potential technical target zone should all this turn out to have been a bear market rally. 2006 $ES? Are you mad bro?

Not really. It would just constitute a technical retrace into the .382 fib of the larger 2009 rally:

A bear market yes, but simply a technical correction in the larger context.

But only a break below the December lows would trigger this scenario, so it remains a theorem at this stage.

As per my TradingNation interview I expect the rally will get tested in sometime March. From my perch markets remain at high risk of a reversal at any time. March OPEX week tends to be bullish however and the weekly Friday $VIX execution remains in full force with a 100% track record so far in 2019. For now volatility compression rules, but warning signs are again abundant. Following March OPEX we are approaching quarter end and with it buybacks will slow to a halt as Q1 earnings are approaching. Perhaps then we will see what this market is truly made of.

In the meantime the Fed will remain sidelined and we’ll be told daily how much progress there is being made on a China deal and as long as that carrot keeps being dangled upside risk remains. Perhaps one day we will actually see a deal done, although the prospect of getting an undefined deal may prove to be more enticing than actually getting one. After all it’s easier to rally indefinitely on undefined hope as opposed to rally on established and ascertainable facts which may turn out to be a lot less enticing than the advertised hype.

We’ll see what Mr. $VIX has to say about all that. He sure is looking to have had enough of the weekly pounding.

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via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2tWmpUx Tyler Durden

Greenpeace Co-Founder Rips “Pompous Little Twit” Ocasio-Cortez As “Garden-Variety Hypocrite” On Climate

Greenpeace Co-Founder, Dr. Patrick Moore, has been in an ongoing spat with New York Democratic Socialist Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (AOC) over the overly-ambitious Green New Deal that could quadruple the national debt. Moore, who has since split with Greenpeace, now refers to himself as the “sensible environmentalist.”

The GND calls for an ultra-progressive bucket list of environmental goals such as the elimination of all fossil fuels, nuclear energy, air travel, 99% of cars and the retrofitting of every single building in America for “state of the art energy efficiency.” AOC’s plan even throws in government-guaranteed jobs – and simply hands cash to anyone “unwilling to work,” along with healthy food and a free house. 

The plan would also, as Moore notes, kill everything on earth: 

After AOC suggested in late February that she was “in charge” until someone comes up with a better plan, Moore fired back, tweeting: “Pompous little twit. You don’t have a plan to grow food for 8 billion people without fossil fuels, or get the food into the cities. Horses? If fossil fuels were banned every tree in the world would be cut down for fuel for cooking and heating. You would bring about mass death.“

Several hours later, Moore explained: “You are delusional if you think fossil fuels will end any time soon, maybe in 500 yrs. AOC’s attitude is unjustifiably condescending. She is a neophyte pretending to be wise. Her kind bring ruination if allowed to be “in charge”. (from the cheap seats).”

Moore has continued his criticism, calling AOC a “garden-variety hypocrite like the others” who has “ZERO expertise at any of the things you pretend to know.” 

A few more thoughts from Moore and others who have jumped into the debate:

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2EILOHn Tyler Durden

Bull Run Reaches Exhaustion

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

On Tuesday, we discussed a very important point with respect to the bull run so far.

“Despite the underlying economic and fundamental data, the markets have surged back to extremely overbought, extended, and deviated levels. The chart table below is published weekly for our RIA PRO subscribers (use code PRO30 for a 30-day free trial)”

 

“You will note that with the exception of bond prices, every market and sector is more than 5% above its 50-day moving average and year-to-date performance is pushing more historic extremes both in price and in extreme overbought conditions. 

Those overbought conditions are more prevalent in the chart below. On virtually every measure, markets are suggesting the fuel for an additional leg higher in assets prices is extremely limited.”

Let me explain why this is important for investors to understand. 

While it is true that there is always a buyer and seller in every transaction it is the “supply and demand” of those buyers and sellers at a particular price point which affects the overall price. 

For example, imagine two rooms of 100 individuals each that want to buy shares of ABC stock. Room “A” has 100 individuals who currently own ABC stock and Room “B” has 100 individuals with cash wanting to buy shares of ABC. The table below shows a very simplistic model of this process.

 

At $10 a share, there are numerous buyers but very few sellers. The demand for the shares drives the price higher which entices more sellers. As long as the demand for shares outpaces the supply of sellers – the price is pushed higher. However, at some point, the price reaches a level that exhausts the supply of buyers. The next price decline occurs as sellers must begin lowering prices to attract buyers.

So, yes, while there is “always a buyer for every seller” the question is always “at what price.”  The chart below is a short-term view of the market which illustrates the current backdrop. 

The chart below shows several methods I look at to try and determine if buyers are potentially reaching a point of “exhaustion” which might lead to a price reversal in the short-term. The top of the chart looks at the historical deviation between the price of the market as compared to the 200-dma. The bottom 4-indicators are measures of price movement and participation (The bottom two panels are the number of stocks above the 50 and 200-dma.)

 

Don’t get too hung up on trying to understand all the nuances of the chart. The important point, from a money management standpoint, is the determination of the potential risk/reward opportunity for allocating capital to the markets at any given time.

As a portfolio manager, clients tend “not to like” having their capital invested in the markets only to almost immediately suffer a principal loss. By using some measures to determine the current risk/reward outcome, the deployment of capital can be more effectively timed.

While the majority of the chart (except for stocks above their 200-dma) is suggesting the market has reached levels where buyers have been more reticent, it is important to understand that just because the indicator has reached an extreme level – the market will not necessarily fall apart immediately. It is a warning sign that suggests further upside in the market is relatively limited compared to the downside risk which currently exists.

The average correction that resolved the overbought condition, since the end of the last financial crisis, has been as little as -3% but as much as -20%. 

The chart below is a much shorter-term analysis which essentially shows the same thing. With markets currently on a very short-term sell-signal, and overbought, the risk/reward isn’t exactly compelling. 

 

As I discussed in “Visualizing Bob Farrell’s 10 Investing Rules:”

“Like a rubber band that has been stretched too far – it must be relaxed before it can be stretched again. It is the same for stock prices which are anchored to their moving averages. Trends that get overextended in one direction, or another, always return to their long-term average. Even during a strong uptrend or strong downtrend, prices often move back (revert) to a long-term moving average.”

 

The chart below shows the S&P 500 with a 50- and 200-day moving average. The bottom of the chart shows two different measures of price momentum over differing time spans.

What is important to notice is that when the markets have gotten this extended previously, it has generally been a better opportunity to reduce portfolio risk (take profits, rebalance risk) rather than expanding it. 

 

This all supports the statement I made on Tuesday:

“The markets are not immune to the ‘laws of physics.’ While the price action is indeed bullish in the short-term, the shorter-term moving averages act like ‘gravity’ on prices. Given the current extension and deviation above the 50-dma the odds of a pullback, before a continued advance, is a high probability.

As shown in the table below, it is very likely that if you sold everything today, and went to cash, that you would miss little over the balance of the year. In other words, the bulk of the gains have likely been made for the year.”

 

“What? I might miss out on a move higher?”

This is a true statement, but at what risk?

Let’s think about why stocks are rising at the moment?

A potential trade deal with China? 

Maybe, but we have known about that since December when the markets started rallying.

A more dovish Fed?

Okay, but we have also known about that for the last two months.

But the list of what’s NOT supporting the market’s advance continues to grow.

  • Earnings estimates for 2019 have sharply collapsed as I previously stated they would and still have more to go.
  • Stock market targets for 2019 are way too high as well.
  • Rising geopolitical tensions between India, Pakistan, Russia, China, Iran, etc. 
  • The effect of the tax cut legislation has disappeared as year-over-year comparisons are reverting back to normalized growth rates.
  • Economic growth is slowing.
  • Chinese economic data has weakened further.
  • European growth, already weak, continues to weaken.
  • Valuations have returned to expensive levels.
  • Stocks are technically very stretched as noted above.
  • Long-term technical signals remain negative. 
  • An uptick in the unemployment rate and rising continued jobless claims. 
  • Clear stress on the consumption side of the equation from a sharp slow down in retail sales and personal consumption combined with a sharp uptick in the savings rate.

As Doug Kass recently noted:

“As you all know, I couldn’t disagree more with the notion of an efficient market nor that price is truth. Emotion, liquidity, sentiment, positioning and the machines and algos are some of the many factors that create an artificiality in stock prices and run counter to natural price discovery.

How else to explain the recent 450 handle rise in the S&P Index? And the similar drop from September to December, 2018?

Our job (or at least how I implement my strategy) is to develop a sense of fair market value or intrinsic value against the current price level for stocks. When the gap widens (and prices are substantially lower than that calculated value) I buy… and vice versa.”

Or simply:

“Price is what you pay, value is what you get.” – Warren Buffett

In the short-term the markets can certainly remain extended for much longer than logic would predict, however, they can not stay overly extended indefinitely. 

The important point here is simply this.

While the Fed’s dovish U-turn may have curtailed the 2018 bear market for now, the market is operating under the assumption the Fed has the same ability to support the financial markets as they did previously. 

The problem is the environment today is vastly different than it was in 2008-2009.  

  • Unemployment is 4%, not 10+%
  • Jobless claims are at historic lows, rather than historic highs.
  • Consumer confidence is optimistic, not pessimistic.
  • Corporate debt is a record levels and the quality of that debt has deteriorated.
  • The government is already running a $1 trillion deficit in an expansion not half that rate as prior to the last recession.
  • The economy is extremely long is a growth cycle, not emerging from a recession.
  • Pent up demand for houses, cars, and other durables has been absorbed and is starting to decline.
  • Production and Services measures recently peaked, not bottomed.

In other words, the world is exactly the opposite of what it was when the Fed launched “monetary accommodation” previously. Logic suggests that such an environment will make further interventions by the Fed substantially less effective.

The only question is how long will it take the markets to figure it out?

Summary

Investing is alway about measuring risk versus reward. Currently, the risk to investors is a correction over the next couple of months followed by a rally into year end which culminates in a total return which is LESS than where you are today.

I know. That is a hard concept to grasp when the media is telling you to NOT ONLY stay invested, but “buy more” as the “bull market is back.”

I can’t disagree that the long-term trend of the market remains bullish, which is why we continue to have portfolios allocated toward equity risk, but markets do not go straight up indefinitely. There will be a correction of some magnitude in the near future which will allow for a safer entry of new capital into the markets.

Patience, however, will likely be tested before that opportunity presents itself.

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2UhJrkd Tyler Durden

Theresa May Has Received A “Peace Offering” From Tory Rebels

At this point in the Brexit process, pound traders have every reason to ignore optimistic headlines about Theresa May’s withdrawal deal. Time and time again, the pound has risen on reports that May might finally secure the votes she needs to pass the deal, which is broadly opposed by Brexiteers and the 10 MPs in the DUP – the Irish Unionist party that helps shore up May’s government.

And every time, hopes for May’s deal have been dashed when the MPs have reiterated their unwillingness to stomach the Irish Backstop as its currently written in the deal. And while May and members of her government have spent months pressing the EU for “legally binding assurances” that the Backstop, should it take effect, EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier has so far refused to budge.

However, now that May has officially sanctioned a series of meaningful votes later this month on her “Plan B” deal, possibly followed by a vote on a ‘no deal’ Brexit, possibly followed by a vote on whether May should press for a ‘Brexit Day’ delay (something that would require approval from the EU27, an approval that is looking increasingly likely) – the eurosceptic faction of her fractious Tory caucus may finally be willing to yield in the hopes of averting a delayed Brexit or – worse – another referendum.

May

The first inkling that the ERG – the coalition of roughly 70 MPs who have stymied May at every turn – might be willing to capitulate came last week when one of its leaders, Jacob Rees-Mogg, said he might be willing to accept May’s deal,  so long as the EU agrees to a time limit on the backstop. Of course, the EU has insisted ad infinitum that this will never happen, but in the grinding quagmire of Brexit negotiations, every incremental softening in rhetoric is cause for celebration.

And so it is with Sunday’s big news: As May’s attorney general, Geoffrey Cox, seeks modifications to the deal that would impose a time-limit on the backstop (like his predecessors, he has met with limited success), the Sunday Times of London has reportedly obtained a copy of a “peace agreement” drawn up by the ERG that features “three tests” for May’s deal that must be met if the prime minister hopes to finally pass the withdrawal treaty and definitively rule out the possibility of a ‘no deal’ economic apocalypse.

The plan was reportedly drawn up in partnership with the DUP, which means that if May or her attorney general can finally win these concessions from Barnier, she might finally be able to pass her deal.

Its demands include:

  • A “clearly worded, legally binding, treaty-level clause which unambiguously overrides” the text of the withdrawal agreement
  • Language that “must go beyond simply re-emphasising/re-interpreting the temporary nature of the backstop” and a change to Cox’s legal advice that it would “endure indefinitely”
  • A “clear and unconditional route out of the backstop if trade talks fail,” which could mean “a time limit or a unilateral exit mechanism.”

To be sure, the demand for a “legally binding” change to the withdrawal text is opposed by Europe, the ERG’s thinking is that, if they can help May prove to the Europeans that she could pass the deal with these changes, the EU27 might finally be willing to concede. And with Mach 29 (the day the UK will formally leave the EU) just weeks away, the pressure for concessions – which would presumably be secured at a last-minute summit one week before the deadline – is building.

But does that necessarily mean the Europeans will concede? It’s difficult to say. While Barnier has said the bloc would be willing to offer some assurances that the backstop wouldn’t last forever, the deal, as Europe sees it, remains “closed”.

A more likely outcome might be the Brexiteers finally deciding to cave and take Europe at their word once a Brexit delay looks imminent.

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Venezuela’s Guaido To Return Home After LatAm Tour With Arrest Looming

Venezuelan opposition leader and self-declared president Juan Guaido said on Saturday he will return home in the coming days after a visit to Ecuador and called for new protests next week against President Nicolas Maduro, whose government had banned him from traveling abroad and who has been branded as Venezuela’s illegitimate leader by much of the world with some key exceptions including Russia, China and Turkey.

“I announce my return to the country and call on marches across the country for Monday and Tuesday,” Guaido tweeted late on Saturday. “We call on people to be attentive to the next steps that we’ll announce.”

“As for the next steps for Venezuelans, I announce my return home from Ecuador,” Guaido told a news conference in the coastal town of Salinas alongside Ecuadorean President Lenin Moreno.

Guaido, who laid his claim as rival president on the grounds that Maduro won a new term in fraudulent elections last year, secretly left Venezuela last month in violation of a travel ban. He has spent the past few days touring between Latin American countries to muster support for his campaign to form a transition government and oust Maduro, whom he denounces as an illegitimate usurper. On his trip, Guaido visited Brazil, Argentina and Paraguay who are backing his push to depose Maduro and organize free and fair elections. Last week Guaido left for Colombia to coordinate efforts there to send humanitarian aid into his country, although following a deadly skirmish, troops loyal to Maduro blocked a convoy of aid trucks and turned them back.

Guaido did not state when or how he would return to Venezuela, although according to Reuters citing the Ecuadorean government’s schedule for his visit, he is expected to leave Ecuador at 9.30 a.m. local time on Sunday.

His return opens the possibility that Venezuelan authorities will arrest him. The Supreme Court had imposed a travel ban on him after he invoked the country’s constitution on Jan 23 to assume an interim presidency. Since taking an oath in front of supporters in late January, Guaido received the backing of more than 50 countries if not Venezuela’s key creditors and oil exporting customers such as Russia and China. Meanwhile, perhaps contrary to his expectations, a quick flip of the military hasn’t materialized, but the U.S. doubled down on financial and oil sanctions that will crimp Maduro’s access to hard currency.

Guaido said Venezuelans should again take to the streets on Monday and Tuesday, even though Venezuela, like other Latin American countries, was celebrating the Carnival holiday. “We have little to celebrate and a lot to do,” he said.

Guaido has called on his international backers to impose harsher measures to pressure Maduro and after the aid convoy’s failure proposed that “all options be kept open.”

While U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration has not ruled out military intervention to dislodge Maduro, it is seen as unlikely and his Latin American allies have encouraged a mix of sanctions and diplomacy instead. Meanwhile, even as Maduro’s regime has kept the political backing from allies like Russia, China and Turkey, any future financial support from those countries remains a major question mark and will be key to Maduro’s staying power.

* * *

Separately, speaking to Russia’s RT, Venezuela’s Vice President Delcy Rodriguez said that Caracas will use all legal means available to protect its assets in Europe and the US from illegal seizure. She also discussed the fate of “president” Juan Guaido. Rodriguez said the Venezuelan government has already taken “concrete legal steps” to claim back the assets of which it was “robbed” by the US and which have been frozen by European banks, including blocking access to repatriating the Venezuela state gold currently held at the Bank of England.

“We have hired lawyers to protect our interests, first and foremost, it concerns gold which has been unlawfully retained by the Bank of England,” Rodriguez said.

The Venezuelan VP also said that Caracas would mount a legal defense against the US move to freeze $7 billion of assets belonging to the state-owned PDVSA oil and natural gas giant and its US subsidiary Citgo.

“We have also taken steps for the legal protection of Venezuela. I’m talking about the theft of Venezuela’s assets committed by the US. Venezuela has the right to protect its legal interests.”

Speaking of the previously announced decision to relocate PDVSA’s European headquarters from Lisbon to Moscow, Rodriguez called the transfer “rather timely” and in line with Venezuela’s expanded cooperation with Russian oil and gas industry. Rodriguez said that in addition to the European HQ, other PDVSA affiliates would relocate to Russia as well.

Finally, the VP shared her views on Guaido, denouncing his actions as detrimental to Venezuela’s future.

“This person is not only making a joke of himself inside the country, but is now making a circus show at the international level,” Rodriguez said, blaming the US-backed opposition lawmaker of colluding with the Trump administration to overthrow Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro.

Asked what Guaido, who is now in Colombia, can expect when and if he returns to his home country, Rodriguez said that his actions, such as plotting to topple the government, would warrant a criminal prosecution.

“Such actions are prosecuted by criminal law. Also, there is a regulatory framework that our authorities are guided by. And they are already taking the necessary measures and will continue to protect our state of law and order,” she said, without elaborating further.

Meanwhile, the Trum administration has warned Caracas of “serious consequences” if it harms Guaido, who could face up to 30 years in prison, according to a judge of the country’s Supreme Tribunal for Justice. Deputy judge Juan Carlos Valdez said that Guaido, who violated a travel ban on February 22 when he crossed into Colombia, was “hiding from justice” and would be “caught and sent to prison” when he comes back. Rodriguez also warned the opposition against calling for military intervention, noting that such calls would backfire since “no one is immune to bombings.“

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Judiciary Chairman Nadler To Hit Over 60 People With Document Requests; Says Trump Obstructed

House Judiciary Chairman Jerrold Nadler (D-NY) said on Sunday that his committee will be issuing document requests beginning on Monday to “begin the investigations to present the case to the American people about obstruction of justice, corruption and abuse of power,” according to ABC News.

“Tomorrow, we will be issuing document requests to over 60 different people and individuals from the White House to the Department of Justice, Donald Trump, Jr., Allen Weisselberg, to begin the investigations to present the case to the American people about obstruction of justice, corruption and abuse of power,” Nadler said on ABC‘s “This Week.”

“Do you think the president obstructed justice?” asked ABC‘s George Stephanopoulos.

“Yes, I do,” replied Nadler. 

Stephanopoulos also asked Nadler: “How about if Robert Mueller comes back and says definitively we find no collusion by Pres. Trump? Is that conclusion you’ll accept?“

“We’d want to see the evidence behind that,” replied Nadler. “This investigation goes far beyond collusion.“

And if Mueller’s report finds no collusion, will the seemingly endless investigations into all things Trump be considered election interference if they bleed into 2020?

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When Bubbles Burst – Tesla, The Everything Cycle, & The End Of Global Warming

Authored by Tom Luongo,

As the center of the U.S. freezes this weekend, Elon Musk is trying to figure out how to save Tesla from going the way of Enron.

Religions die hard. It takes an orgy of evidence to change a person’s mind on a subject that is integral to their moral and ethical structure.

In the case of Tesla, the mania surrounding it over the past decade has been inextricably bound up with the hysteria of global warming.

For years investors ignored the obvious warning signs that Tesla would never be able to graduate from a boutique, hand-built car manufacturer and technology skunk works to a mass producer.

I’ve been very hard on Musk in the past, with good reason. But, as a guy with vision I applaud him getting Tesla off the ground and legitimizing the idea of the upscale electric car.

But it was never going to work as a mass production scheme because Musk isn’t that guy. He’s a dreamer and a schemer, not a builder. And, as I’ve said multiple times, he should have stepped down as CEO of Tesla ages ago.

A man has got to know his limitations as The Man once said.

Musk doesn’t.

People Need Religion

And this goes for the Global Warming crowd as well. There’s is a religion based around basic human hubris — that we are far more impactful on the world than we actually are and our activities need to be reined in.

This comes from worshiping the environment as a substitute for traditional religions. Marx preached organized religion is the ‘opiate of the masses’ but people need religion of some form or another to bring meaning to their lives and guide their behavior.

So if they reject Christianity, for example, they will seek out a new thing to elevate and substitute for it. I would argue that Star Wars provided that for me as a teenager and later Heisenberg’s Uncertainty Principle.

We all need a religion.

The environment is definitely one of these substitute religions. In fact, modern environmentalism has all the trappings of a classic human religion.

We have our Satan, consumerism. It is the bastard child of capitalism since this version of environment-worship is rooted in Marxism.

We have the apocalypse story, Global Warming. We will literally destroy all life on the planet turning it into Venus. It’s the rapture for Gaia worshipers.

And we have the High Priest of Technocracy who will save us from ourselves, Elon Musk. He will put a solar panel on every roof, take us to Mars while we drive around, guilt-free in our luxury Teslas.

The problem with all of it, of course, is that it was all bought with debt and government largesse, itself a consumerist fantasy created out of the opulence that capitalism provided.

And while there are plenty of reasons why electric cars can make sense, less carbon dioxide isn’t one of them. But, that’s where the billions in grants and Wall Street funny money came from.

Tesla is witches’ brew consisting of equal parts the Fed’s insane zero-bound interest rates, the elevation of global warming to religious significance by the left and cynical Wall Street profiteering.

The Fed provided the money, the government gave out the subsidies to entice the Wall Streeters and global warming provided the upscaling demand as Generation Prius gave way to the siren’s call of Musk’s consumerism.

In essence, we live in a period of history so wealthy relative to our basic survival needs we can indulge the ravings of mad Marxists at levels of taxation and wealth redistribution which are far greater than any previous economic cycle.

Why this occurred, in my view, is confluence of three things:

  1. Rising sun output lowering the cost of food production.

  2. Enshrining private property rights and the subservience of government to the people in law in some places, like the U.S.

  3. Accessing the deep, high-density energy reserves of the planet (Oil).

Those three things created real wealth for humanity at a rate easily double previous periods of recorded history.

There’s no doubt that this period has been messy and our institutions and cultural identities are having a hard time adjusting.

The environmentalists certainly have a point about pollution and consumerism.

But only up to a point.

And if they would confine their activities to getting polluters to pay their ‘externalities,’ limiting governments’ protection of them and educating people about being less wasteful then I would have zero problems with them.

In fact, I applaud their efforts. What they fail to understand, willfully I believe, is that the efficiency enforced by the laws of economics on producers drives waste and pollution down over time.

But their religious fervor cannot allow them to see that and allow nature, as it were, to take its course. And there’s is a religion based on the unquenchable envy of Marxism.

My substitute religion however, doesn’t tell me to expropriate 10% of world GDP to ensure I get another Star Wars movie to add to my gospel either.

But you do see that from the Global Warming extremists. And the sad part is that the same Wall St. profiteers who sold them Tesla are also selling them carbon credits, solar panels and electric luxury cars.

The very people who they rail against, Wall St. are the ones handing them the money to indulge their power fantasies about saving the world.

You can can your environmentalist cake and eat it too, Greenies.

And it would all be great if it weren’t all a complete lie. Global warming is a bubble bursting just like Tesla is because both are stories built on a foundation of debt and consumption, not privation and thrift.

Like capitalism is.

The climate cycle is changing in front of our eyes. The sun is shutting down and will likely remain so for at lest another ten years, possibly far longer.

The climate is only just now catching up to this fact. And we are woefully unprepared for this fact as Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez goes full Marxist retard touting a Green New Deal.

We are in a transition state from warming to cooling. Weather is getting violent. The upper atmosphere is cooling off so quickly even the religious nuts at NASA have had to admit it publicly.

And yet, people cling to their religions because they have to. Just like they cling to Marxism that forms its foundations despite its truly horrific record of human abuse.

As Musk and Tesla fall from grace we’ll see the scales lift from many true believers’ eyes. Because nothing wakes people up faster than seeing their future gutted as their brokerage account plunges towards zero.

At that point even this cycle will turn. Expectations will be tempered and people will finally become open to truly sustainable solutions we all actually want.

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2Uij8u6 Tyler Durden

NHTSA Investigating Two Tesla Crashes Days After Two More Driver Deaths

The NHTSA is reportedly investigating Tesla yet again, after two new separate fatal accidents that took place in Florida over the past week and a half. A spokesperson for the NHTSA said that the agency was in the midst of an “ongoing investigation” involving both crashes and that the agency would “take additional actions if appropriate”.

The NHTSA has the authority to demand a recall if it believes a defect poses a safety risk. The NTSB, also investigating the second crash, makes safety recommendations. The NHTSA and NTSB are investigating the role of Tesla’s Autopilot and battery fires in Teslas after crashes, including cases of batteries reigniting, as was the case in one of the recent accidents. 

We reported on the first accident just about a week ago, where a Tesla in Davie, Florida burst into flames after striking a tree, killing its driver. 

Paramedics arrived and pronounced the driver dead at the scene. Witnesses say that the Tesla was “traveling at a high rate of speed” prior to the crash. CBS 4 Miami reported at the time that: “Police say officers tried to save the driver but couldn’t open the door because there was not a handle.”

Just days later, news broke about a second accident in Delray Beach, Florida. First reported by pro-Tesla blog electrek, a Tesla Model 3 driver was killed after the vehicle wound up under a truck’s trailer, resulting in its roof being completely sheared off as it passed underneath it, known as a “side underride” accident. The NTSB promptly announced that it was investigating the accident.

After the accident, the Tesla reportedly kept going for over 500 yards before coming to a stop. Both Tesla and the local police department are still investigating the crash. A preliminary report on the accident, where “Vehicle 1” is the tractor trailer and “Vehicle 2” is the Tesla, said: 

“Vehicle 1 (V-1) was a tractor/trailer combination vehicle traveling eastbound on the driveway access to 14095 SR 7 (Pero Farms) preparing to turn left onto SR 7. Vehicle 2 (V-2) was traveling southbound on SR 7 within the outside lane approaching Pero Farms. After V-1 came to a brief stop at a stop sign, V-1 entered the southbound lanes of SR 7 pulling into the path of V-2. V-2 struck the driver side of V-1’s trailer resulting in the roof being sheared off as it passed underneath the trailer. V-2 continued southbound and came to a final rest approx 3/10th of a mile south of the collision. The driver of V-2 was pronounced deceased on scene.”

electrek posted photos of the intersection where the accident took place. The photos show the intersection where the semi truck reportedly pulled into the path of the Tesla.

The accident is similar to an incident that took place in May 2016 in Williston, Florida, where 45-year-old Joshua Brown collided with a truck while using Autopilot in his Tesla Model S, resulting in his death. Neither the driver nor Autopilot were able to recognize the trailer of a truck crossing the highway and the car ended up going underneath the trailer. Autopilot continued to drive a “significant distance” before coming to a stop in the 2016 incident, as well.

According to Reuters, the NTSB is still investigating three additional Tesla incidents being reviewed by NHTSA, as well as an August 2017 Tesla battery fire in California. Back in 2017, after investigating the Williston May 2016 accident, the NTSB found that Tesla “lacked proper safeguards allowing the driver to use the [Autopilot] system outside of the environment for which it was designed and [that] the system gave far too much leeway to the driver to divert his attention.”

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2NIDF8M Tyler Durden

Trump Move on US Troops In Syria Does Not Bode Well For US-Turkey Relations

Authored by Martin Jay via The Strategic Culture Foundation,

News recently that President Trump has once again done a U turn on his Syria policy – and will keep US forces in the north with their SDF (mainly Kurdish) allies – couldn’t have been more felt than in Turkey. Trump’s decision to listen to his military advisors and even titans in Congress like Lindsey Graham to keep a contingent of US troops in the north with the SDF and in the south east at Al Tanf is hugely important in that it keeps other allies there – namely France and the UK – on board and retains America’s barrier to Iran taking the east of the country as a key corridor all the way to Lebanon. It also keeps Saudi Arabia and Israel happy who were particularly vexed by the hasty decision which would have dramatically changed the Syria War chequers board.

But the decision, which is believed to involve 400 troops staying and not 200 as reported – comes with a high price: it looks as though it will alienate Turkey once and for all.

Just recently, the tumultuous relations between Trump and Erdogan took a turn for the better and, since the release of a US pastor, improved quickly, which helped the Turkish economy and signaled better cooperation in the future over arms procurement and possibly even the extradition of clergy Gulen, which Ankara believes is the brainchild behind the attempted coup in the summer of 2016.

The decision initially announced by Trump to pull out altogether from Northern Syria played well for Ankara which was able to plan on how to go about hitting the YPG element of the SDF, build a security corridor and generally throw its weight around in Syria with little worry of troubling Washington. There was though always a question hanging over the decision of what to do if Assad would strike a deal with the Kurds and Trump’s repeated statements resonating the same message over and over again – that the Kurds would always be the ally of the US and that Washington would not abandon them – rang hollow. Pulling out US soldiers from the SDF belt would have created a lot of confusion as enemies would have become friends and a new Syria war would have emerged between Turkey and the Kurds – who, to complicate things further at one point, looked as though they were poised to get the support of both the Assad regime and its enemies Israel and Saudi Arabia at the same time.

In fact, the rush to give the SDF (which Turkey considers to be the terror organization PKK), a boost is still there, which, in turn, was part of the decision by Trump to keep a good number of soldiers on the ground.

In recent weeks, according to leaked documents, reports have emerged of a new impetuous of anti Turkey hatred, which has eclipsed even the paranoia over Iran and Hezbollah and focused the minds of Israel, Saudi Arabia and Washington.

With Turkey’s expansion in the region and its military base in the Red Sea with Qatar, there is a new focal point now from the West which sees it – and its ambitions – as the biggest threat in the region, not helped by Ankara insisting on its right to purchase Russian S-400 missile systems while Trump holds back on F-35 sales to the Turkish air force.

Washington may well have rolled out the red carpet just recently for Turkey’s defense minster to keep up a pretence that Ankara-Washington relations are luke warm, at best. But the reality is that the Trump decision on troops to stay in Syria, which on the face of it masquerades as a strategy against Russia and Iran – in fact, is part of a bigger plan for Israel, Saudi Arabia, UAE and Egypt to support the Kurds in a new battle with Turkey. A secret meeting held in December agreed to let Assad back into the Arab League and move forward with a new anti-Turkey plan, via the Kurds. With Mossad taking this initiative, we have to assume that Trump’s blessing would come with it and that his own people were a little slow in understanding the importance of the decision. If this plan is to gain some momentum soon, without interference from Iran or Russia, then it is entirely logical that Trump would want US troops to be with the SDF, rather than stand on the touchlines and let others bask in the glory, not to mention warming up relations with Riyadh which cooled in recent weeks over the Khashoggi affair thrusting the MBS entourage into the arms of the East.

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2C4NAkq Tyler Durden

Mapping Where Measles Is Spreading The Fastest

Figures released by UNICEF today have drawn attention to the current “alarming global surge of measles cases”.

Statista’s Martin Armstrong notes that, according to the report, 98 countries recorded an increase in cases from 2017 to 2018, with 74 percent of the total rise accounted for by just ten countries. As our infographic shows, the largest share of the surge happened in Ukraine, where an additional 30,338 cases were reported compared to 2017 which had 4,782 cases of the easily preventable but potentially deadly disease.

Infographic: Where Measles is Spreading the Fastest | Statista

You will find more infographics at Statista

Commenting on the latest figures, Henrietta Fore, UNICEF’s Executive Director said:

“This is a wake up call. We have a safe, effective and inexpensive vaccine against a highly contagious disease – a vaccine that has saved almost a million lives every year over the last two decades”.

According to the Ukrainian government, there have been 24,042 new cases in the country in 2019 so far already. In what UNICEF says is the worst-hit region of the country, Lviv in western Ukraine, negative attitudes toward immunization and previous shortages in vaccine supply, have resulted in low vaccination rates. The Ministry of Health, supported by UNICEF, launched an immunization drive at schools and clinics in the region.

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2C344cD Tyler Durden