Category: zerohedge

New legislation working its way through the Arizona Senate would establish one of the country’s first statewide DNA databases in which wide swaths of residents would be forced to give up their genetic material.

State Senate Bill 1475, sponsored by Rep. David Livingston (R), would essentially collect DNA from anyone currently required to submit fingerprints, including teachers, safety inspectors, real-estate agents, anyone in law enforcement, and appraisers. Anyone who dies will also have their DNA collected and stored under the bill. 

Meanwhile, a $250 fee would be collected from people submitting biological samples under the bill.

The DNA database would be maintained by the Department of Public Safety, which would include a person’s name, social security number, date of birth and last known address – and could be accessed and used by law enforcement for investigations. The database can also be shared with other government agencies across the country for the purposes for “employment, licensing, death registration, missing persons identification,” and IDing people using aliases or multiple identities, reports AZ Central. 

No other state has anything this expansive in place, according to David Kaye, an associate dean for research at Penn State University who studies genetics and its application in law.

Kaye said the proposed bill is one step away from requiring DNA from anyone who wants a driver’s license. –AZ Central

DNA is currently collected from anyone convicted in Arizona of a felony or a misdemeanor sex crime. 

“It doesn’t seem like solving crimes is a big priority here,” says David Kaye. “It’s not focusing on the people most likely to be linked to crimes, it’s just spreading the net more broadly.”

Widespread opposition

The bill has been widely opposed by Arizona residents, including the West Maricopa Association of Realtors, who voiced their opposition last week, suggesting that Livingston “would do well to read Thomas Paine’s “Rights of Man”. His premise is as true today as it was 250 years ago: Man is given natural rights as part of his existence. He does not join a society or form a government in order to lose those rights.”

Arizona wants some DNA, but the FBI wants all of it

While Arizona’s bill collects DNA from certain categories of individuals – and eventually everyone once they’re dead, the FBI is creating a “nation of suspects” according to a US think tank, as they seek to collect every single American’s DNA for a massive database signed into law in 2017 by President Trump which comes into effect this year. 

The Rapid DNA Act allows police to routinely collect DNA samples from anyone they’ve arrested, but before they’ve been convicted of a crime. The 2017 law requires several states to connect Rapid DNA machines to the “Codis,” the FBI’s national DNA database. 

Approximately the size of a desktop printer, use of the Rapid DNA machines made by Thermo Fisher Scientific and others, are “expected to become as routine a process as taking fingerprints,” according to the Daily Star. 

But John W. Whitehead from The Rutherford Institute believes it is a sinister development which will make everyone a suspect.

Speaking to Daily Star Online, he said: “The fact of the matter is that these machines are not full-proof.

“But we could look at a situation in which someone could be arrested, have their mouth swabbed and then be charged within hours after generating a DNA profile.

“We are looking at the erosion of the concept of innocent before proven guilty because it will allow police to go on fishing expeditions. –Daily Star

“When you sit on a park bench, you shed DNA,” says Whitehead. “That is now up for grabs by police who could swab it, and run it through a DNA database. If they find a match, or if misconduct occurred anywhere in the vicinity where your DNA was found, you might find yourself charged with a crime you never committed merely because you happened to be in the wrong place at the wrong time.”

“Even people who aren’t charged with major crimes could have their DNA put on file,” adds Whitehead. “People who are just seen as suspicious could have their genetic makeup stored in a criminal database.“

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2T7mylX Tyler Durden

Authored by Dave Huber of The College Fix

The concept of “white privilege” essentially is taken as gospel on American college campuses. There are workshops about it, classes on it, and the concept has been woven into just about any discipline you can think of.

Belief in white privilege actually “isn’t nearly as pernicious as conservatives tend to believe,” according to The Weekly Standard’s David Marcus. “There is real value in considering the fact that people might treat you with more respect and dignity based on your skin color,” he says.

However, it is only with regards to race that people are required to acknowledge their “unearned advantages,” Marcus adds. Not to mention, the proposed and promulgated remedies for white privilege are found wanting.

California State University, Chico’s Rachael Bayuk probably won’t be persuaded by Marcus’s points, even granting his concession that white privilege is a real thing. Writing in The Orion, she demands that you, as a white person, “stop bringing up how hard you had it as a kid, stop saying you were poor, [and] stop naming every bad thing that has ever happened to you in defense of yourself.”

As penance for history, white people “damn well better let people who’s [sic] voices have been drowned out speak,” which means (in part) butting out of conversations they shouldn’t be part of. Example: Whites don’t get a say in what is offensive to non-whites.

“Who the f*ck are we to tell them what isn’t offensive,” she asks, referencing the Washington Redskins team name.

White women (or, should that be “female-identifying”?) also aren’t permitted to wear hair braids, according to Bayuk. “Think about how privileged this sounds,” she says. A white girl appropriating this look would get compliments, while a black girl so coiffed would be considered “ghetto.”

Seems to me Bayuk is making use of her white privilege in making such a statement.

From the op-ed:

We don’t get to pick and choose what’s okay and what isn’t. That’s what colonialism has been doing for centuries－picking and choosing all the parts white, dominant culture likes and discarding the rest. Well, we should stick to box tea and lederhosen and stop injecting ourselves into places we don’t belong.

Our society has adopted celebrations from Mexican culture only to gentrify them. We mash them up beyond recognition until all they become are excuses to drink and wear “funny” (racist) costumes. There is not a single thing funny about racism. The systematic oppression and crude depictions of people of color is unacceptable.

We can’t allow it anymore. If you’re staying quiet, you’re compliant in this system. If you just “don’t care for politics,” you are part of the problem. People’s livelihoods are based around political decisions. Stop and think about how privileged you are to be able to turn off the TV and forget about the communities plagued by systematic violence.

White people’s voices “have rung through these mountains for far too long,” Bayuk says. It’s time to hold the metaphorical “megaphone” for those who’ve been silenced.

Read the full piece.

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2U0aQGZ Tyler Durden

The FBI’s top lawyer, General Counsel James Baker, initially thought that Hillary Clinton should face criminal charges for transmitting classified information over her insecure, private email server, according to transcripts from a 2018 closed-door Congressional testimony reviewed by The Hill‘s John Solomon. 

While being questioned by Rep. John Radcliffe (R-TX), Baker was clear that he thought Clinton should face criminal charges. 

“I have reason to believe that you originally believed it was appropriate to charge Hillary Clinton with regard to violations of law – various laws, with regard to mishandling of classified information. Is that accurate?” asked Ratcliffe, a former federal prosecutor. 

After a brief pause to consult with his attorney, Baker responded: “Yes.” 

Baker later explained how he arrived at his conclusion, and how he was “persuaded” to change his mind. 

“So, I had that belief initially after reviewing, you know, a large binder of her emails that had classified information in them,” said Baker. “And I discussed it internally with a number of different folks, and eventually became persuaded that charging her was not appropriate because we could not establish beyond a reasonable doubt that – we, the government, could not establish beyond a reasonable doubt that – she had the intent necessary to violate (the law).“

Baker says he was persuaded to change his mind “pretty late in the process, because we were arguing about it, I think, up until the end.“

Recall that in December, 2017 we learned that James Comey’s original exoneration letter was drafted in a way that would have required criminal charges – changing Clinton’s conduct from the legally significant “gross negligence” to “extremely careless” – which is not a legal term of art. This language – along with several other incriminating components was altered by former FBI counterintelligence agent and attorney, Peter Strzok. 

Baker made clear that he did not like the activity Clinton had engaged in: “My original belief after – well, after having conducted the investigation and towards the end of it, then sitting down and reading a binder of her materials – I thought that it was alarming, appalling, whatever words I said, and argued with others about why they thought she shouldn’t be charged.“

His boss, Comey, announced on July 5, 2016, that he would not recommend criminal charges. He did so without consulting the Department of Justice, a decision the department’s inspector general (IG) later concluded was misguided and likely usurped the power of the attorney general to make prosecutorial decisions. Comey has said, in retrospect, he accepts that finding but took the actions he did because he thought “they were in the country’s best interest.” –The Hill

Baker noted that had he been more convinced that there was evidence that Clinton intended to violate the law, “I would have argued that vociferously with him [Comey] and maybe changed his view.”

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2NlLVLM Tyler Durden

Regardless of whether overt fraud is suspected or not, after the numerous emissions scandals that have rocked the global auto industry over the past ten years (Volkswagen diesel-fuel emissions scandal being the most memorable and probably the most egregious), headline-scanning algos are bound to react to the word “emissions” in a headline – and that’s exactly what happened late Thursday when Ford announced that its workers had discovered an unspecified issue with the techniques used by the company to test whether its cars meet emissions standards.

But there’s no obvious reason to panic – at least, not yet. In a statement, Ford claimed that the problems didn’t involve “defeat devices” like those Volkswagen admitted were deliberately installed in its cars to circumvent federal regulations – a scandal that resulted in billions of dollars in fines and mass recalls. Some of the company’s executives even faced criminal charges.

Ford also said none of its fuel economy ratings had been found to be inaccurate (again, at least not yet).

The issue was reported to the company by employees back in September, prompting an internal probe. The company then reported the issue to the EPA and California regulators this week. An explanation for the lag was not offered.

Ford has hired an outside firm to investigate road load specifications used in its testing, according to a statement.

Breaking: @Ford says it has “become aware of a potential concern involving its U.S. emissions certification process,” has voluntarily disclosed it to the EPA.

— Ari Natter (@AriNatter) February 21, 2019

Ford says they have hired an outside firm to conduct an investigation into the vehicle road load specifications used in our testing and applications to certify emissions and fuel economy.

— Ari Natter (@AriNatter) February 21, 2019

Company statement: “In September, a handful of employees raised a concern through our Speak Up employee reporting channel regarding the analytical modeling that is part of our U.S. fuel economy and emissions compliance process.”

— Ari Natter (@AriNatter) February 21, 2019

Again, so far, there’s no need to panic – yet. But the EPA confirmed Ford’s disclosure and said the investigation was “too incomplete” to arrive at any preliminary conclusions. And after a rough year for auto stocks as global sales slumped and Ford said it would shutter production on some poor-selling brands, the last thing the company needs is another scandal.

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2GCEAa0 Tyler Durden

Majority Leader Mitch McConnell could toss a major stinkbomb into the 2020 Democratic Primary as soon as next week.

According to the Hill, the Republican leader is planning to call a vote on the “Green New Deal” resolution championed by Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Sen. Ed Markey.

Though no Republicans have expressed support for the deal, McConnell’s wants to fast-track a vote on the resolution as a ploy to divide Democrats between supporters and opponents and force 2020 primary contenders to go on the record either supporting or opposing the non-binding resolution. So far, most of the contenders have spoken favorably of the deal, including Kamala Harris, Kirsten Gillibrand, Cory Booker and Elizabeth Warren, while others, including Amy Klobuchar, have been somewhat more tentative.

As a reminder, here are some of the more “radical” proposals included in the original GND (or “Green Dream”, as Nancy Pelosi once called it), at least before some major rewrites when even the GND’s advocates balked at the lunacy that was presented before them.

• Rebuild every single building in the U.S.

“Upgrade or replace every building in US for state-of-the-art energy efficiency.”

• Will end all traditional forms of energy in the next ten years.

The Green New Deal is “a 10-year plan to mobilize every aspect of American society at a scale not seen since World War 2 to achieve net-zero greenhouse gas emissions.”

• Plans to ban nuclear energy within 10 years if possible.

It’s unclear if we will be able to decommission every nuclear plant within 10 years, but the plan is to transition off of nuclear and all fossil fuels as soon as possible.”

• Build trains across oceans and end all air travel.

“Build out highspeed rail at a scale where air travel stops becoming necessary.”

• Don’t invest in new technology of Carbon Capture and Storage, just plant trees instead.

We believe the right way to capture carbon is to plant trees and restore our natural ecosystems. CCUS technology to date has not proven effective.”

• Mandates all new jobs be unionized.

“Ensure that all GND jobs are union jobs that pay prevailing wages and hire local.”

• May include a carbon tax.

We’re not ruling a carbon tax out, but a carbon tax would be a tiny part of a Green New Deal.”

• May include cap and trade.

The Hill included a litany of critical comments about the GND from Republicans and Democrats.

• “It is difficult to support the resolution right now when one of the lead sponsors says one of the intentions is to make air travel unnecessary,” Rep. Rick Larsen (D-Wash.), the chairman of the House Transportation and Infrastructure Subcommittee on Aviation, said in a statement in early February.
• “I’m looking forward to voting against the Green New Deal because it’s just so bad for the economy and we’ll have an opportunity for the Democrats to see if they want to rubber stamp this lurch to the left, this hard left turn that their party seems to be taking right now,” said Sen. John Barrasso (R-Wyo.), chairman of the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee.
• Sen. Cory Gardner (R-Colo.), who faces a tough reelection race next year, equated the plan to socialism. “This idea is about socialism. That’s what this is. Look at it. Read it,” Gardner said. “And it’s important that we tell the American people what it is.”
• Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.), another centrist in the Democratic caucus, characterized the plan in an interview with CNN last week as a “dream,” suggesting he’d vote against it.
• “I’ll vote on the motion to proceed and then we’ll see after that,” Manchin, the ranking Democrat on the Senate Natural Resources Committee, told The Hill.

But Chuck Schumer, who has refused to explicitly support the resolution, brushed aside questions about McConnell’s decision and told reporters that he would welcome a vote on the resolution, saying “bring it on.”

“You think it might embarrass Democrats to vote on a nonbinding resolution that some of us may support but not others?” Schumer asked. “Trust me, we’ll be fine, because the American people know that our entire party believes that climate change is happening and it’s caused by humans.”

Maybe Schumer will change his tune after his office conducts a few rounds of polling about Americans’ support for air travel and beef.

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2Ta0l6R Tyler Durden

Former Trump adviser Roger Stone was given an epic slap on the wrist by a D.C. judge on Thursday after Judge Amy Berman Jackson slapped him with another gag order following an Instagram ‘death threat’ levied at the Judge. 

Stone posted a photo to Instagram featuring Berman Jackson with a crosshair next to her head, for which he was ordered to explain himself in court on Thursday.  

Apologizing for violating her previous gag order, Stone said on Thursday: “I abused the order for which I’m heartfully sorry,” adding “I’m kicking myself over my own stupidity but not more than my wife is kicking me.”

Stone: “I am kicking myself over my own stupidity but not more than my wife is kicking me.”

— Darren Samuelsohn (@dsamuelsohn) February 21, 2019

Stone: “I recognize that I let the court down. I let you down. I let myself down. I let my family down. I let my attorneys down. I can only say I’m sorry. it was a momentary lapse in judgement. Perhaps I talk too much.”

— Darren Samuelsohn (@dsamuelsohn) February 21, 2019

Stone then blamed one of his five volunteers for downloading the image he posted. 

Stone says he’s asked his volunteers who was it who got the at-issue image. “Nobody will own up to it,” he says.

— Darren Samuelsohn (@dsamuelsohn) February 21, 2019

“Mr. Stone, I’m not giving you another chance. I have serious doubts about whether you’ve learned any lesson at all,” said Berman Jackson, who added that she wasn’t buying Stone’s apology – and would throw him in jail if he violates the new gag order. 

Judge Jackson not taking Stone’s apology. Says it looks like it came from his lawyers: “So thank you, but the apology rings quite hollow.”

— Darren Samuelsohn (@dsamuelsohn) February 21, 2019

Judge Jackson in backing up the gag order, which limits Stone from speaking at all about the case: “So no, Mr. Stone I’m not giving you another chance. I have serious doubts about whether you’ve learned any lesson at all.”

— Darren Samuelsohn (@dsamuelsohn) February 21, 2019

Judge Jackson says any more mess ups and Stone may be sent to jail. “I want to be clear today. I gave you a second chance. But this is not baseball. There will not be a third chance.”

— Darren Samuelsohn (@dsamuelsohn) February 21, 2019

In short, much ado about nothing.  

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2EnmbM5 Tyler Durden

After a seemingly endless series of trading days in which the market would spike higher as either the US or China would release some “trade deal optimism“, today was a stark disappointment for the bulls because while the latest round of trade talks started in DC between the US and Chinese delegations, there were no “optimistic” leaks or Trump tweets. Instead, overnight in a surprising twist, reports hit that China had “indefinitely” banned Australian coal imports, a report which send AUD traders in for a rollercoaster of a day, stopping out both longs and short, with the currency first jumping on good economic data, then sliding on a bank’s forecast for an RBA rate cut, then tumbling on the China export halt, and sliding for the rest of the day.

The news also hit the Chinese Yuan, which first jumped to a seven month high against the dollar, only to sink subsequently, ending the day at the lows, while the Bloomberg dollar index predictably rose for much of the day, reversing all of yesterday’s losses.

It wasn’t just the latest developments in the trade war saga that hit investor sentiment: the latest economic data also hurt, with PMIs out of Japan, Germany and the Eurozone, all sliding into contraction territory…

… and while the US manufacturing PMI remained above 50, it printed at a fresh 17 month low today, sparking more fears about a manufacturing contraction.

The fears only rose after the Philadelphia Fed tumbled by the most since the August 2011 US sovereign rating downgrade…

… ominously led by the biggest drop in the New Orders index since the Lehman bankruptcy.

There was more bad economic news out of the US which saw core capex in the form of Capital Goods Orders non-def ex. Air unexpectedly declining for a third consecutive month, the longest stretch in the red since late 2015.

Meanwhile, the latest existing housing data also confirmed that the US economy is broadly slowing, with the first sub-5 million (annualized) housing print since 2015 as increasingly more potential homebuyers find themselves priced out of the market.

And with no “trade optimism” to fall back on, bad news was for once bad news, which meant that stocks sold off for much of the day, and after rising briefly into the green in the morning session, drifted lower in a subdued manner, with today’s best and worst sectors a mirror image of yesterday, as homebuilders were in the green while energy and tech in the red.

Meanwhile, Treasurys sold off across the curve as yields rose in a parallel curve shift.

And while there was little to write home about, precious metals which had posted impressive gains in recent days, tumbled today, with gold tumbling 1.1%, its biggest drop since early November.

So with earnings season almost done and no economic news tomorrow, can traders relax for a bit? Hardly: expect headlines from the ongoing US China trade talks to start leaking over the next few hours, while tomorrow’s barrage of Fed speakers virtually assures that the market will be talked higher come hell or high water:

• 08:15 AM Atlanta Fed President Bostic (FOMC non-voter) speaks
• 10:15 AM New York Fed President Williams (FOMC voter) and San Francisco Fed President Daly (FOMC non-voter) speak
• 12:00 PM Fed Vice Chairman Clarida (FOMC voter) speaks
• 12:30 PM New York Fed Executive Vice President Potter speaks
• 01:30 PM Vice Chairman for Supervision Quarles (FOMC voter) speaks
• 01:30 PM St. Louis Fed President Bullard (FOMC voter) speaks
• 01:30 PM Philadelphia Fed President Harker (FOMC non-voter) speaks
• 05:30 PM New York Fed President Williams (FOMC voter) speaks

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2GFR1BK Tyler Durden

Submitted by Simon Black of SovereignMan

Howard Marks is one of the smartest, wealthiest investors in the world.

As founder of Oaktree Capital, Marks manages around $120 billion. And his track record ranks him among the greatest investors in history.

So it’s probably no surprise that Marks is deeply concerned about “the rising tide of anti-capitalism,” and dedicated one of his famous memos to this new political trend.

In the eyes of anti-capitalists, wealthy people, big businesses, and investment funds are all evil. Period.

Just look at how New York City pushed Amazon to walk away from its multi-billion dollar expansion there: these anti-capitalists aren’t rational. This is no longer a political agenda. They’re waging a holy war… it’s a bizarre jihad against prosperity.

As Howard Marks writes in his latest memo, the anti-capitalist fever is spreading quickly today because so many people are feeling left behind. The stock market has been booming for most of the past decade—so people in the upper middle class, and the rich, have become wealthier as a result.

People in the working class, however, rarely invest in the stock market. Instead, they have seen stagnating wages that in many cases haven’t even kept up with inflation. Nearly 30% of American jobs, primarily those in the working class, now require expensive, bureaucratic government licenses that take even more time and money away from people who are already struggling.

At the same time, economic growth is slowing and automation and globalization are eliminating working-class jobs. In a short time, entire working class professions will be vanquished. All of this contributes to a ‘have/have not’ society that has become almost a caste system: if you’re born poor, you’re probably going to die poor. Opportunities for growth and advancement are dwindling.

If you’re working class and try desperately to save money, you won’t even be able to generate a positive return (after adjusting for inflation and taxes) by keeping money in a savings account. And if you try to start a business to get ahead, you’ll once again be hit with endless bureaucracy, fees, and legal liability. Unsurprisingly this has led to a lot of anger. People feel like they’re being screwed by the system. And right now it’s palpable.

Yet rather than focus on intelligent ways to fix enormous problems, the government will align itself with the Socialist jihad and start attacking prosperity.

Look at Social Security as an example (which Howard Marks also agrees will fail). There are realistically only two ways to fix this:

• One- default on the promises that have been made to everyone, by cutting benefits, raising the retirement age, etc.
• Two- Raise taxes.

Option 1 is political suicide. Option 2 is much easier, especially if you can ratchet up tax rates on the wealthy.

But there’s an even bigger insult with this Socialist Jihad: they not only want to shake down the upper and upper-middle classes with punitive tax rates of 70% to 80%, but they also want to constantly shame and demean you as well.

In ancient Rome, wealthy people were often heavily taxed and expected to pay for enormous public works. But they were honored for it… heralded with gratitude for contributing so much to the Republic.

The socialists want your money AND your self-esteem; some days it seems like there’s no end to the rancid emotional diarrhea on social media over someone else’s personal wealth.

Every action has consequences. And it’s only reasonable to presume tha t every person has a limit. Push people too far and they’ll leave. That’s what the jihadists fail to realize: it’s the 21st century. People (and capital) are mobile.

As we’ve noted before, the rich are already leaving higher-tax states for places like Texas and Florida where there’s no state income tax. That trend will only accelerate. It’s also clear that more people will relocate to Puerto Rico, where they can entirely eliminate their US federal income tax. Under tax incentive programs that I have written about before, in Puerto Rico it’s possible to pay just 4% on business income, and absolutely NOTHING on investment income.

Puerto Rico’s Secretary of Economic Development told us recently that applications for these incentives are up several fold over the past few years. So it seems that trend is growing as well. John Paulson, another hedge fund billionaire, has already said that he’s planning on moving to Puerto Rico just as soon as his youngest child goes off to college in a few years.

But that’s fine with the socialists. They think it’s a victory when they chase people and businesses away.

They’re not interested in a win/win solution that benefits everyone. They only want a win/lose outcome… “winning” at your expense.

 Two thousand years of historical evidence show this doesn’t work. As Marks writes in his memo:

“The hard-left thinks government can do things better than free markets and increase wellbeing.  Which government agencies would you like to see managing our economic engine?

“Capitalism is an imperfect economic system, because differential performance in the pursuit of economic success – as well as luck – results in there being (a) some people who are less successful as well as some who are more and (b) a few who are glaringly successful.

“Obviously I’m someone who has profited from capitalism, so my views could be dismissed as hopelessly biased.

“However, I’m 100% convinced that the capitalist system has produced the most aggregate gains for our society, exceptional overall progress, and a better life for most.  For me, the best assessment of capitalism is the one Winston Churchill applied to democracy:

No one pretends that democracy is perfect or all-wise.  Indeed, it has been said that democracy is the worst form of Government except all those other forms that have been tried from time to time.

In the same way, I’m convinced that capitalism is the worst economic system . . . except for all the rest.”

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2Eow9Nm Tyler Durden

We discussed the collapse in the VIX earlier, when we pointed out that at least according to the world’s largest bond manager, this artificial market calm foreshadows another surge in volatility just around the corner, which is also why Pimco’s CIO had one recommendation: start selling now.

However, while Pimco may be accused of merely talking their book, there is another empirical indicator which suggests that a violent market reversal may be imminent.

According to Wells Fargo’s recession model, which similarly to JPMorgan’s and Goldman’s uses various market signals such as the 3M10Y treasury spread and various economic inputs, the chances of a recession in the US over the next 12 months spiked in December and hit 40% in January (while high, this is still well below JPMorgan’s 60% odds of a recession in the next coming year).

However, as Wells Fargo’s in house derivative strategist Pravit Chintawongvanich observes, this surge in the probability of a recession is at odds with the implied one-year equity volatility which as discussed earlier, is now trending below its 2018 average.

“Despite the increased recession probability, long-dated equity volatility is actually trading lower than in previous years,’’ Chintawongvanich wrote in a client note, adding that the vol collapse likely reflects market structure issues (i.e., various speculators selling vol both directly and indirectly) rather than outright complacency.

Yet while on the surface this is merely the latest discrepancy in a market where nothing makes sense anymore thanks to central bank manipulation of every asset class, according to Chintawongvanich the divergence has more ominous overtones:  a similar gap emerged just ahead of the 2008 financial crisis.

“In 2007, 1-year vol traded at very low levels despite recession risk having increased rapidly in 2006,” said Chintawongvanich adding that “It was only when Bear Stearns started running into trouble in summer 2007 that 1-year vol rapidly repriced.”

Which once again begs the question: what event will be this cycle’s “Bear Stearns” catalyst.

But before you panic, Wells has soothing scenarios for you to consider: according to the bank’s recession model, there were at least two occasions – in the 1960s and 1990s – when a similar dovish pivot from the Federal Reserve as we experienced in January, was able to extend the economic cycle even as recession odds crept up. The similarity to 1966 may be an especially apt comparison to the Fed’s ability to delay a recession, Chintawongvanich notes. That’s when – just like now – Bloomberg notes that the yield curve inverted even as labor markets remained strong but most other parts of the economy deteriorated and stocks entered a bear market, which in turn prompted the Fed to start an easing cycle at the end of the year that warded off a recession… but only temporarily.

As Deutsche Bank explained two weeks ago, in “The Fed’s Policy Error Is Right Out Of The 1960s“, just like now, the Fed was more concerned by the stock market and stayed on hold in 1966 and even cut rates in early 1967 as growth, fiscal spending and inflation went higher. While this likely prolonged the cycle and re-steepened the curve, it also reinforced higher inflation and by the end of 1967 the Fed were forced to reverse course and start a hiking cycle. The curve then re-inverted and by the end of the decade the recession arrived four years after the first curve inversion.

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2E3VlXI Tyler Durden

AT&T has joined Disney and Nestle SA in pulling advertisements from YouTube over a “soft-core pedophilia ring” which allowed pedophiles to identify videos of young girls engaging in sexually suggestive activities.

“Until Google can protect our brand from offensive content of any kind, we are removing all advertising from YouTube,” said AT&T in a statement emailed to Bloomberg. 

Originally discovered in 2016 by YouTuber “reallygraceful” in a now-unavailable video – for which she was subject to MSM hit pieces (such as this one by the BBC‘s Mike Wendling), blogger Matt Wilson revived the controversy in a 20-minute video published Sunday, which has received over 2 million views. 

Wilson describes how comments on YouTube were being used to identify certain videos in which young girls can be seen participating in sexually suggestive behavior – such as posing in front of mirrors and doing gymnastics and “yoga stretching.” If a user clicked on one of the videos, YouTube algorithms then suggested similar ‘pedo-centric’ material. 

Wilson under attack

While Wilson has received overall praise for his video, he has received pushback from popular YouTuber “Keemstar,” who has called him a fraud just trying to make a name for himself, according to the Daily Dot. 

While Keemstar doesn’t condone the pedo-centric videos, he has taken issue with Wilson’s call for a platform-wide advertising ban, which may lead to another “adpocalypse.” 

In 2017, some content creators lost up to 80% of their revenue due to upset advertisers pulling their campaigns which were featured in videos that promoted derogatory content. 

The “adpocalypse” started not with a bang, but with Wall Street Journal reports in March of YouTube users posting hate speech and racist content—and the advertising that was automatically attached to that content. Advertisers quickly pulled out, and some creators lost up to 80 percent of their daily income.

One of the biggest hits came to Swedish YouTuber Felix Kjellberg, known as PewDiePie, who lost a Disney contract after WSJ exposed Kjellberg’s videos with Nazi imagery and anti-Semitic jokes. -Daily Dot

Keemstar “exposed” Watson in a twitter video, claiming that while bringing the pedophilia ring to light was good, “then he tried to ruin all of the YouTubers’ livelihoods by getting the new fans he got from this campaign to spam advertisers and pretty much try to start the next adpocalypse.”

Watson can also be seen in a video propositioning a woman to shoot a porn.

He’s not who he says he is!!! pic.twitter.com/vajGYaNGVE

— KEEM 🍿 (@KEEMSTAR) February 19, 2019

“He keeps saying YouTube is doing nothing. Which is a complete lie,” says Keemstar. 

Of note, YouTube says it has taken action, telling Bloomberg in an email: “Any content –including comments — that endangers minors is abhorrent and we have clear policies prohibiting this on YouTube. We took immediate action by deleting accounts and channels, reporting illegal activity to authorities and disabling violative comments.” 

YouTube told the Daily Dot that it has disabled comments on tens of millions of videos that include minors, terminated 400 channels and reported some users to authorities. 

Watson was criticized by others in response to Keemstar’s tweet:

He’s purposely trying to usher in another Adpocalypse…

YouTube has problems, fixing them doesn’t mean you go telling people to call up advertisers…

This isn’t some heroic crusade, it’s a vendetta…

— Roberto Blake #AWESOMESQUAD (@robertoblake) February 20, 2019

There won’t be a hole deep enough for you to hide in when this is through. Pedophiles are disgusting and little kids shouldn’t be uploading videos to YouTube. YouTube needs to do a better job at this shit. But you spreading your fecal matter ideas to ad companies?

— Rob Gavagan (@RobGavagan) February 20, 2019

As the Daily Dot points out, however, Watson also has his defenders. 

They have known about the problem for a long time and have failed to implement effective solutions to keep kids safe. If it wasn’t Matt it would be someone else pushing this. Yet, everyone keeps attacking his character. YouTube needs to fix this and stop chasing its tail. 2/2

— Daniel James (@dulhunty) February 21, 2019

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2Si4voC Tyler Durden