The ‘Insect Apocalypse’ Has Been Canceled

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“The Insect Apocalypse Is Here,” declared the stark New York Times headline in November 2018. The article focused on a 2017 German study that said the mid-summer levels of “flying insect biomass” in 63 nature preserves had declined by 76 percent over 27 years. In a 2019 study in Biological Conservation, researchers warned that we might see “the extinction of 40% of the world’s insect species over the next few decades.”

Big if true.

Now a new study in Nature Ecology & Evolution offers some happier news: In the United States at least, the abundance and insect biodiversity trends are “generally indistinguishable from zero.” In other words, there is no detectable insect armageddon here. “This lack of overall increase or decline was consistent across arthropod feeding groups and was similar for heavily disturbed versus relatively natural sites,” note the researchers. “The apparent robustness of US arthropod populations is reassuring.”

The researchers came to their conclusions by parsing the data collected through the U.S. National Science Foundation’s network of Long-Term Ecological Research sites. This network, established in 1980, comprises 25 monitoring locations across each of the country’s major ecoregions.

The press release accompanying the study notes that the team looked into several factors that might have had a noticeable effect on insect population levels, including insecticides, light pollution, and built environments.

“No matter what factor we looked at, nothing could explain the trends in a satisfactory way,” said University of Georgia entomologist Michael Crossley. “We just took all the data and, when you look, there are as many things going up as going down. Even when we broke it out in functional groups there wasn’t really a clear story like predators are decreasing or herbivores are increasing.”

In an April 2020 commentary in Science, two British researchers urged their colleagues against crisis-mongering through overinterpreting tentative results from very preliminary insect abundance studies.

“The temptation to draw overly simple and sensational conclusions is understandable, because it captures the attention of the public and can potentially catalyze much needed action in policy development and research arenas,” they warned. “However, fear-based messages often backfire. This strategy has the grave risk of undermining trust in science and can lead to denialism, fatigue, and apathy. Embracing nuance allows us to balance accurate reporting of worrying losses with hopeful examples of wins. Hope is a more powerful engine of change than fear.”

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Mike Pence Comes Out Against Marijuana Banking Bill That Would Actually Save Taxpayers Money

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Vice President Mike Pence took to Lou Dobbs Tonight on Fox News earlier this week to gripe that Democrats were attempting to include legislation related to marijuana and banking in the latest coronavirus relief bill.

“I heard the other day the bill mentions marijuana more than it mentions jobs,” Pence said to Dobbs. “The American people don’t want some pork-barrel bill coming out of the Congress when we’ve got real needs for working-class families.”

Maybe he’s trying to remind everybody that Joe Biden isn’t the only vice president who’s still resisting marijuana legalization?

There are two ironies here. First, the bill Pence is complaining about makes it possible for cannabis businesses to safely engage in banking in states where cannabis is legal, which helps those “working-class families” who rely on the cannabis industry. Second, the bill he’s referring to will actually save taxpayers money, unlike much of the rest of this relief legislation.

The “Secure and Fair Enforcement Act of 2019,” a.k.a. the “SAFE Banking Act,” would allow legally operating cannabis businesses to have the same legal access to banks, loans, and deposit protections as other legal businesses. Because the sale and possession of marijuana are still forbidden by federal law, banks are reluctant to have any dealings with dispensaries and growers, even when they’re legally operating within their home states.

This is not a pork-barrel bill. While the marijuana industry would love to have access to federal coronavirus relief, the SAFE Banking Act would allow them only to use banking services the way other businesses do. According to the Congressional Budget Office, passing the bill would actually reduce the federal deficit by $2-3 million dollars a year. This is small potatoes in the grand scheme of things (the federal deficit for 2020 stands so far at $2.8 trillion), but as Reason Foundation Policy Analyst Jacob James Rich observes, legal banking creates a framework for the expansion of the cannabis industry and also improves bookkeeping and revenue and income reporting. Both of those actions ultimately lead to more commerce and more revenue for the government:

Issues of underreported marijuana income are endemic across all municipalities and states that have regulated cannabis. This should come as no surprise since cash-based businesses tend to underreport their incomes by 50% in general, which might be even larger in the marijuana industry as suppliers transition from illegal to regulated markets. Additionally, employees of cash-based businesses tend to report less than 20% of their incomes to the Internal Revenue Service (IRS). The best way to address these issues would be to allow marijuana businesses access to banking services, which provide much better records for accounting purposes.

The country is in a recession and experienced an unprecedented 32.9% drop in gross domestic product (GDP) for the second quarter of 2020—due largely to the coronavirus pandemic and the economic lockdowns many state and local governments implemented. While seeking to grapple with the pandemic, recession—and eventually needing to confront the nation’s unsustainable spending, both conservative and liberal policymakers in Congress should consider provisions, like marijuana banking law reforms, that could help the economy, state and local governments, small businesses, and be a net positive to the federal budget.

Pence and Sen. Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R–Ky.) are using the SAFE Banking Act as a cudgel to accuse House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D–Calif.) of including “non-germane” content in coronavirus relief legislation. Back in May, when the House previously attempted to add the SAFE Banking Act to coronavirus legislation, McConnell took the same approach as Pence is taking now, mocking the bill for referencing “cannabis” more than it references “jobs,” which is a cheap and lazy way to score points. The number of times a bill uses a particular word is not a good indicator of what the bill does.

The SAFE Banking Act passed the House last September, 321-103. Only one Democrat (Terri Sewell of Alabama) voted against it, while 90 Republicans supported it. Thanks to McConnell, it hasn’t been taken up by the Senate, despite having the support of fellow Republican and Kentuckian Sen. Rand Paul, who tweeted in support of it just yesterday.

While there are myriad issues with the federal government’s coronavirus relief efforts, allowing state-legal cannabis businesses to use banking services is not one of them.

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Three Questions To Ask Before You Declare The Gold Bull Dead

Three Questions To Ask Before You Declare The Gold Bull Dead

Tyler Durden

Thu, 08/13/2020 – 13:30

Authored by Michael Maharrey via SchiffGold.com,

Gold and silver got had an abysmal day on Tuesday (Aug. 11). The price of gold dropped more than 5%, falling far below the $2,000 level. It was the worst single-day rout in seven years.

[ZH: Gold is still tracking 10Y real rates almost perfectly]

Things stabilized somewhat on Wednesday with apparent support above $1,900, but the big selloff fueled speculation that the gold bull run could be over.

Here are three questions you should ask yourself before declaring the gold bull dead.

1. Do you believe the economy can quickly recover? Let’s say they develop a coronavirus vaccine tomorrow. Do you believe that the economy can just spring back to life?

2. Do you believe that the federal government will stop borrowing and spending billions of dollars every single month anytime soon? Keep in mind, the federal government was borrowing and spending billions of dollars a month before the pandemic.

3. Do you think the Federal Reserve is going to stop printing money, raise interest rates and shrink its balance sheet in the near future? Likewise consider that the Fed was slashing rates, printing money and growing its balance sheet before the coronavirus reared its ugly head.

If you answer no to any of these questions, pronouncing last rights on the gold bull market might be premature.

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/30TflJl Tyler Durden

Treasuries Tumble After 30Y Auction Bombs

Treasuries Tumble After 30Y Auction Bombs

Tyler Durden

Thu, 08/13/2020 – 13:18

After the stellar, record-sized 3Y and 10Y auctions earlier this week, moments ago the Treasury concluded refunding week with another record auction, this time in the form of an all time high $26BN in 30Y bonds.

However besides the record auction size, today’s 30Y sale had nothing in common with this week’s prior coupon auctions both of which passed with flying colors, as this was without doubt the ugliest 30Y auction in years.

Pricing at a high yield of 1.406%, this was a 2.4bps tail to the 1.382 When Issued – the biggest tail since last July – and well above last month’s 1.357%.

The other metrics were far worse, however, with the Bid to Cover plunging from 2.50 to just 2.136, the lowest since July 2019 and one of the lowest on record.

The internals were even uglier, with Indirects plunging from 72% to 59.8%, the lowest since November and well below the 66.2% six-auction average. And with Directs taking down just 11.9%, it left Dealers holding a whopping 28.3% of the sale, the most since July 2019. 

Overall, this was a very ugly auction, and due to the record auction size, or due to today’s massive Apple concurrent issuance or just because of rising reflation fears, whatever the reason the curve quickly repriced sharply wider, and as the 30Y yield spiked to a level from early July, the 10Y yield has pushed above 0.70%.

Curiously, the unexpectedly ugly auction also sparked a bit of a trapdoor effect in stocks which also dipped suggesting that even a glimmer of validated reflation creeping into bond auctions will be enough to shock both the stock and bond market.

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/33VzHnb Tyler Durden

In Transformational Shift, The BOJ Gives Up On Negative Rates As It Now Pays Banks To Lend

In Transformational Shift, The BOJ Gives Up On Negative Rates As It Now Pays Banks To Lend

Tyler Durden

Thu, 08/13/2020 – 13:10

After more than half a decade of disastrous monetary policy which not only failed to stimulate inflation, boost exports or crush the yen, but has brought Japan’s banks to near disaster, the Bank of Japan has come up with an “ingenious” new plan to flood the system with liquidity: it is paying banks hundreds of millions of dollars in bonuses to boost lending, a move analysts say is aimed at easing the side-effects of its negative interest rate policy.

And while record bank lending in recent months suggests the BOJ’s plan is working – a very rare success of late in its losing battle to revive the economy – according to Reuters it is also a sign that policymakers’ focus is now more on supporting banks, rather than keeping rates low.

To be sure, the literal wall of money printed by the BOJ in recent years has kept a lid on bankruptcies and job losses as the economy tips into a deep recession, although it has also meant that banks can not survive without continued life support from the central bank. And the prolonged battle with COVID-19 has only added strains on regional banks.

Needless to say, the local bankers are delighted with this latest indirect transfer from taxpayers to the top 1%: “This is one of the most effective policy moves the BOJ has made in recent years,” said Takehiro Noguchi, senior economist at Mizuho Research who personally stands to benefit from this “effective policy move.”

We found his second comment far more illuminating: “The BOJ will likely continue to take steps to alleviate the side-effect of its monetary easing… The BOJ thinks negative interest rates is something it should not have done.”

Oh, so conducting catastrophic experiments with monetary policy that crush savers and the middle class, while making the rich wealthy beyond their wildest dreams is something that “should not have been done”? We agree, and if only the BOJ had listened to us when we said all of this before it launched its idiotic NIRP policy, it would have saved Japan’s population years of misery and pain. Of course, central bankers always “know best”… and then the system collapses.

In any case, it’s too late now to fix anything without a complete systemic reset (and crash), and so the BOJ is forced to engage in increasingly desperate measures to keep it all together. That’s why in March the BOJ cobbled together special “coronavirus relief” operations to help keep cash-strapped companies afloat. Under the scheme, the BOJ lends cash to banks against their lending to the private sector, such as loans and bonds, as collateral.

The operation started off quietly but got a major boost after the BOJ decided in April to add a sweetener by giving banks a bonus of 10 basis points (bps) or 0.1% per year, for using the scheme, a bonanza when 10-year government bonds yield 0.04%.

Yes, if this sounds like a direct money transfer from the central bank to the commercial banks, it’s because that’s exactly what it is. It is also completely illegal in any other context than the one of a “covid emergency.”

Naturally, banks rushed to the plan, gobbling up 27 trillion yen ($250 billion) through the channel by July. And since that is roughly as much as the amount of banks’ deposits on which the BOJ imposes negative interest rates, it appears that banks were quick to use the BOJ’s latest helicopter money scheme to offset the punitive effects of NIRP.

Recall that in 2016 the BOJ went negative in an attempt to weaken the yen and lower corporate borrowing costs (it achieved neither). However, to avoid damaging banks even more, it imposed a minus 0.1% rate on only a small portion of banks’ deposits, amid concerns the policy could squeeze lenders’ margins and possibly reduce the flow of credit to the economy.

Meanwhile, as Reuters notes, the BOJ has paid 0.1% interest to banks on a total of about 208 trillion yen deposits, while the remainder carries zero interest. The complicated, three-tier interest rate system was intended to keep the benchmark interbank lending rate below zero percent while limiting the negative interest banks have to pay to the BOJ.

Of course, as analysts were quick to point out, paying additional interest on the new scheme is undermining the case for negative rates even further, thereby obviating the entire disaster that has been NIRP.

“In the grand scheme of things, we could see this as a policy normalisation as well as enhancing support for banks,” said Katsutoshi Inadome, senior strategist at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities.

As a result of the BOJ’s move to increase interest payments to banks, the benchmark interbank overnight interest rate has also edged up, staying mostly above minus 0.05%.

The good news is that for now, the BOJ’s latest helicopter money plan appears to be working. Data this week showed banks’ lending rose by a record 6.3% in July from a year earlier to 572.7 trillion yen ($5.36 trillion). That represents an increase of about 26 trillion yen since March, suggesting the BOJ has effectively back-financed nearly all of the bank lending growth since then.

It also means that while the operation was supposed to be temporary, many now expect that the BOJ will gradually make it permanent as it is extended it beyond its scheduled expiry next March.

More importantly, while backtracking on negative rates could – and will – erode the BOJ’s credibility, frankly it’s not like the BOJ had much to begin with as all that now matters is how much the government will order the BOJ to print under the auspices of helicopter money.

Meanwhile, with the BOJ having effectively nullified NIRP, there is confusion as to how monetary policy will look in the future when Kuroda has to ease further, having admitted that NIRP is a failure and rapidly running out of debt and ETFs to monetize.

“Should the BOJ ever need to cut interest rates further to ease its policy, the central bank will combine it with more bonus schemes like this, to the extent that the net effect becomes unclear,” said Izuru Kato, chief economist Totan Research.

Kato is right, and the final bonus scheme will be the BOJ finding an “excuse” to give money directly to Japan’s population, after which it is game over for fiat as first the yen then every other “developed” currency will implode.

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2XX6Wmp Tyler Durden

Uber-And-Out? Even Unicorns Get The Blues

Uber-And-Out? Even Unicorns Get The Blues

Tyler Durden

Thu, 08/13/2020 – 12:50

Authored by Mark Jeftovic via OutOfTheCave.io,

As I briefly covered in my AxisOfEasy tech digest this week, Uber and Lyft were bracing themselves for a ruling by a California judge that threatened to force them into treating their wage slaves as employees. Lyft said if the ruling went against them it would cause “irreparable damage”. Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi penned an op-ed in the New York Times that just so happened to run Monday, pining for a fair shake for gig economy serfs workers.

Khosrowshahi, whose compensation package last year clocked in at $45,000,000 USD, waxed pensively, ‘There has to be a “third way” for gig workers.’ . Ideally one in which Uber wouldn’t be on the hook for their benefits and would be able to continue apace as a Silicon Valley unicorn: posting billions of dollars a quarter in losses and jockeying for Federal bailouts. Meanwhile the early stage backers, the VC’s and the private equity funds, would continue to live large off of financialization, not having to worry about the consequences of being the driving force in a race to the bottom for everybody else (even Uber’s lümpenvestors who bought into the IPO are still underwater).

As it turned out, Judge Schulman ruled that these gig economy workers are to be treated as employees in the State of California, and sure enough, Uber is now threatening to pick up their ball and go home.

People following my writings may be surprised that I’m not approaching this as yet another government inflicted wound against capitalism, like how higher minimum wages increases unemployment. It’s a fair point.

But we’re not talking about countless mom-and-ops and other main street businesses having their costs jacked up by economically illiterate career politicians. Even in a climate of government mis-micromanagement and overreach, the so called “free enterprise” participants should be competing under the same conditions. If an independently owned and operated driver service in the state has to operate under onerous taxation and terms, then being a Silicon Valley unicorn shouldn’t exempt you from suffering the same conditions.

In this case we’re talking about Cantillonaires who feel entitled to special privileges and exemptions but the reality is this:

These companies were never intended to be economically viable.

The only thing that mattered from the outset was to cannibilize the entire market, driving down prices and wages while operating at a loss so that they could garner the next financial event, be it a series D, E or F up-round and then eventually some monster acquisition or IPO. Within truly un-manipulated, free market competition, Uber and Lyft would have either had to compete, viably, with numerous entrants and competitors all fighting under their own steam, or else be snuffed out by economic reality.

The truth is that you can’t actually build a business where every transaction and input is subsidized, ultimately by central bank stimulus, while  all normal course responsibilities of operations, like expenses, are externalized.

With the Everything Bubble finally looking to pop, and pent up reality s-l-o-w-l-y beginning to reassert itself, these Unicorns will have to face the same situation that every other non-unicorn, non Silicon Valley funded business has to face: Whatever your “boil-the-ocean” big idea is, you’re gonna have to do it in an economically viable way, or it’s not going to happen.

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Turkey “Responded” To “Attack” On Gas Exploration Ship In Contested Waters: Erdogan

Turkey “Responded” To “Attack” On Gas Exploration Ship In Contested Waters: Erdogan

Tyler Durden

Thu, 08/13/2020 – 12:35

Turkey and Greece are on the brink of military conflict in the eastern Mediterranean, with French military assets also now in the area supporting Cyprus and Greece

President Erdoğan in a televised speech Thursday made an alarming claim, saying the Turkish hydrocarbons exploration ship Oruç Reis has come under some sort of “attack”

Though he didn’t specify details or offer evidence, he said Turkish forces responded. “We have already told them that if they attack Oruç Reis, in response, there would be a heavy price to pay. And we have given the first response today,” Erdogan said in the address, according to state media.

A build-up of Greek Navy ships and Turkish warships – the latter escorting the Oruç Reis – has already been confirmed after official Turkish government sources released earlier photos showing a military escort while the seismic research vessel probes near Greece’s easternmost islands.

If there was an actual exchange of fire, or perhaps a ramming incident, it likely would not have involved the Oruç Reis directly, but instead one among the multiple Turkish military escort vessels

There have been some Greek media reports suggesting there was a direct, brief encounter between Greek and Turkish warships.

Turkish sources are reporting a Greek frigate was damage after it came too close to the Oruc Reis, while Greek media says merely minor contact – a “kiss” of sorts between the vessels.

Whatever the case, the two sides are now only likely to build-up their forces in the region further, also given Athens has found new confidence in France’s Emmanuel Macron newly pledging to boost French military presence in support of Greece and Cyprus.

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/3kHErmn Tyler Durden

Democrats Hate Facebook. Republicans Want To Ban TikTok. The Bipartisan Backlash Against Big Tech Is Here and It’s a Disaster.

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It’s the summer of 2020, and everyone seems to hate Big Tech.

Over the last three months, President Donald Trump has issued orders targeting not only Twitter, the highly politicized social media platform he uses incessantly, but TikTok, a Chinese-owned service known mainly as a place to share teen dance memes. Democrats used a high-profile congressional hearing in July to bash Google and Amazon, two of America’s most successful companies, for allegedly anti-competitive practices. And members of both political parties repeatedly went after Facebook for restricting too much speech—and for not restricting enough. Big Tech just can’t win.

In one sense, none of this is new. For the better part of the last decade, Silicon Valley has been on the outs. Politicians on both sides of the aisle have targeted it. Mainstream media has become increasingly critical. Ordinary people have begun to treat the internet, and the opportunities it has created, as a nuisance. Even as their products have transformed nearly every aspect of everyday life, large tech companies have been subject to increasingly negative public perception and attendant political attacks.

Yet for a brief moment this spring, as the U.S. shut down and stayed home in response to the coronavirus, it looked like American tech companies might be making a reputational comeback. With everyone trapped at home and indoors, Big Tech provided a lifeline, connecting Americans to food, entertainment, work, and each other. But America’s temporary truce with Big Tech wasn’t to last. Nearly five months into the pandemic, it appears any newfound goodwill earned by Silicon Valley has already been burned.

“There was a small window of time where everyone was grateful that technology was allowing us to continue to function as a society despite our inability to gather in physical spaces,” Santa Clara University law professor Eric Goldman tells Reason. “And yet that gratitude wore off so quickly. Everyone just went right back to hating on internet companies and forgetting all the great things we’re benefiting from today.”

Why the sudden reversal? Perhaps because the political battle against Big Tech—and attempts to make it a populist cause—has been based on a loose constellation of personal grievances, culture war opportunism, crime panic, and corporate rivalry—all of which were on display in a recent congressional hearing in which the top executives of Google, Facebook, Apple, and Amazon were grilled, often inartfully, by members of Congress.

In theory, that hearing was focused on antitrust concerns. But members of both parties repeatedly brought up frustrations with how social media platforms and search engines were handling user content—a reminder that the future of Big Tech is inevitably bound up with the future of free speech. That same impulse was on display days later when Trump issued his executive order on the “threat posed by TikTok.” Somehow, the app had been caught in the middle of the culture war, the trade war, fears of a foreign power, and panic over social media speech and user privacy, all at once.

In the COVID-19 era, federal tech policy has become a vehicle for conspiratorial and authoritarian impulses of all kinds. Politicians attacking Big Tech have invoked Silicon Valley elites, Russian bots, Chinese spies, Middle Eastern terrorists, domestic sex predators, gun violence, revenge porn, internet addiction, “hate speech,” human trafficking, and the fate of democracy as reasons for action. Whatever works to distract people from their attempts to interfere in American freedom of expression, commerce, and privacy. Google, Amazon, Facebook, Twitter—even platforms as seemingly superficial and politics-free as TikTok—have all been swept up into a wide-ranging political war on the foundations of online life and culture.

It might be working. Even as Big Tech has benefited ordinary people in countless ways, political backlash to the size and power of America’s largest technology companies—what some insiders call “techlash”—is coming stronger than ever. And it could make addressing everything from the pandemic to election integrity, cancel culture, criminal activity, police reform, racial justice, and state surveillance of our digital lives so much worse.

The Story of Section 230 

So how did we get here? In many ways, the story starts in 1996, when the World Wide Web was relatively new and full of radical possibilities—and also potential for harm.

In response, Congress passed a law, the Communications Decency Act (CDA), that attempted to regulate online content and was mostly declared an unconstitutional, unenforceable mess. But the courts let one part be: Section 230. This short statute stipulates that “no provider or user of an interactive computer service shall be treated as the publisher or speaker of any information provided by another information content provider.” That’s the first bit, and it’s vitally important for freedom of expression online because it gives tech companies less motivation to censor speech.

The second part, meanwhile, is more about protecting users from harmful content by assuring these companies that they won’t be penalized for “good faith” actions “to restrict access to or availability of material that the provider or user considers to be obscene, lewd, lascivious, filthy, excessively violent, harassing, or otherwise objectionable, whether or not such material is constitutionally protected,” nor would providing “the technical means to restrict access to material” they find objectionable. The so-called “Good Samaritan” provision lets tech companies moderate and block some content without becoming targets for criminal charges or lawsuits.

Overall, it gave tech entities a way to protect their users’ (and their own) First Amendment rights without requiring a prolonged court battle for every single piece of disputed content. And for a long time, very few people, politicians, or interest groups thought this was a bad thing (to the extent that they had ever heard of this wonky internet law at all).

A decade later, blogs, Facebook, Twitter, YouTube and other web 2.0 technologies had shifted the balance of power on the internet to favor the masses over the gatekeepers. Time magazine declared “you”—the user of these digital services—the person of the year. In the Middle East and other conflicted areas, populist rebellions against autocratic leaders were spread internally and globally through Twitter. Meanwhile, in the U.S., social media has given rise to underrepresented voices and political ideas often ignored by establishment powers. Its ability to document and share police abuses against black Americans in Ferguson, Missouri, and beyond made it integral in launching a new civil rights and social justice movement. The internet was a force for individual empowerment, and thus for good.

But all that freedom—to speak, to share, to joke, to communicate, to connect—was messy. It allowed people to speak truth to power, and also to spread misinformation. It created new ways to shine light on injustice, and new means to perpetuate it. It gave politicians a more direct-to-the-people megaphone—and vice versa. It spread sociability and solidarity while simultaneously enabling identity trickery, scammers, saboteurs, scandals, and pile-ons. It gave a platform to vital information, ideas, and images as well as vile expressions of violence and hate. And, as the 2016 election approached, it became mired in increasingly angry partisan political disputes.

Within a few years, Republicans and Democrats in Congress could hardly agree about anything when it came to diagnosing issues with online life. But they coalesced around similar solutions: more federal regulations and criminal investigations. Using antitrust laws against sites and services that have gotten too popular. Suddenly, high-profile pundits and politicians—from former Vice President Joe Biden to a range of Republican senators to Fox News host Tucker Carlson to left-leaning newspaper columns—started calling for Section 230 to go. Big Tech was a threat, and it had to be contained.

Big Tech vs. Big Virus 

Which brings us to the present, and COVID-19.

In the early days of the pandemic, Amazon deliveries seemed to be single-handedly keeping at least half of America stocked with groceries, hand sanitizer, and household supplies. Meanwhile, Zoom became the standout service for staying in touch.

During the worst days of personal protective gear shortages, Italian hospital horror stories, and general mass panic, Silicon Valley’s leading lights donated money and much-needed supplies. By the end of March, for example, Apple had announced it would donate some 2 million masks to medical workers, while Facebook and Tesla immediately offered hundreds of thousands of masks they’d had on hand for wildfires. Tesla also donated 1,200 ventilators when those were in short supply. Google gave away hundreds of millions in free ad space to groups working to combat COVID-19’s impact.

Meanwhile, social media allowed people to talk through new research and share ideas, as widespread videoconferencing—once the province of science fiction—allowed people to gather, exercise, hold business meetings, have happy hours, celebrate special occasions, and console distant loved ones from within their own homes.

And as businesses shuttered and economic turmoil spread, tech tools from peer-to-peer payment apps like Venmo and Cash App to crowdfunding platforms like GoFundMe, document sharing services like Google Docs, and myriad others allowed people to organize mutual aid funds, spread the word about volunteer initiatives, ask for help, give directly to those in need, and share specialized community resources.

Of course, COVID-19 also meant that people were—and are—more reliant on tech-mediated reality than ever before. Those excluded from or marginalized in certain digital arenas had more reason to grow resentful. Politicians had more reasons to want to grab control. All of us had more opportunities to muck things up by speaking too hastily or picking the wrong side of what seemed like a billion new battles a week.

In a pandemic, the internet’s freedoms were messier than ever. And that messiness fueled a new wave of tech-skeptical politics.

 

Coronavirus and the Crisis of Truth

Almost immediately, lawmakers began publicly bashing tech providers and calling for investigations. Amazon faced accusations of price gouging during the pandemic. Zoom was targeted as a threat to user privacy. In June, Sen. Josh Hawley (R–Mo.), a longtime critic of Google and Facebook, introduced legislation to curtail Section 230. Meanwhile, the country was erupting in protests and upheaval following the killing of George Floyd by Minneapolis police.

“We’re back to politicians spending time talking about Section 230 and breaking up platforms,” TechFreedom’s Ashkhen Kazaryan said in June, “while the country is still being torn apart by both racial injustice and the pandemic.”

Some of this renewed animosity was probably unavoidable, simply because so much contentious discourse is mediated through social media. Yvette Butler, an assistant professor of law at the University of Mississippi, thinks the pandemic has brought a heightened sense that social media platforms have a moral responsibility “to fact-check and promote the truth.”

Some of it has been spurred by tech leaders getting too political, or at least taking actions that are perceived that way.

“It’s both the fact that the political discourse has been very charged in the past few weeks and a lot of it has happened on these platforms, and the fact that by default the tech leaders are participating in the political dialogue,” says Kazaryan.

She thinks “the pressure point—the point of no return for this—was the protests for reopening America,” when Facebook angered a lot of people by banning pages for some anti-lockdown events. Then, Twitter and Snapchat actions against Trump’s accounts followed suit.

Michael Solana, vice president of the San Francisco–based Founders Fund, a venture capital firm that counts Peter Thiel and an array of other Silicon Valley heavyweights among its partners, suggests that gripes about social media are creating more than just a media-driven backlash this time. “The left now generally believes Facebook is why Trump won. The right believes they’re being censored by like five white Communists who went to the same school and now live in multi-million dollar homes in Atherton [California] and San Francisco,” he says. “Both sides seem to want blood.”

Trump Steps In

The temporary truce came to a definitive end with Trump’s May 28 executive order on social media speech, following Twitter’s decision to fact-check Trump’s tweets.

A day earlier, Twitter had affixed blue exclamation-point icons and links saying “Get the facts about mail-in ballots” beneath two Trump tweets about mail-in voting, in which the president had said “there is NO WAY (ZERO!) that Mail-In Ballots will be anything less than substantially fraudulent” and made false claims about California’s vote-by-mail process.

Clicking the Twitter link led users to a page titled “Trump makes unsubstantiated claim that mail-in ballots will lead to voter fraud,” where Twitter explained its move (“part of our efforts to enforce our civic integrity policy”) and included a series of tweets from media outlets, nonprofit groups, and journalists countering the president’s claims.

Trump’s subsequent order suggests that Twitter’s fact-check “clearly reflects political bias” and therefore somehow amounts to illegal censorship.

A private company cannot censor the president of the United States, at least not in the sense that they’d be violating the First Amendment, which protects private speech from government restrictions. But Trump’s order attempts to reposition free speech as forcing private companies to follow government-set content standards and forbidding them from countering false claims made by him and his administration.

The president’s order also completely mangles descriptions of Section 230 in the course of calling for it to be amended.

“When large, powerful social media companies censor opinions with which they disagree, they exercise a dangerous power. They cease functioning as passive bulletin boards, and ought to be viewed and treated as content creators,” states the order.

In this passage and throughout the decree, Trump argues that companies cross a legal threshold by exercising judgment about user content and forfeit the right to be treated as legally separate from their users. Trump portrays all of this as the mandate laid out in Section 230.

But the idea that these companies must be some sort of neutral conduits of user speech (or else cross an imaginary legal line between being a “publisher” or “forum” or “platform”) is not just pure fiction but also the exact opposite of both the intent and the function of Section 230. The whole point of the law is to protect the editorial discretion and content moderation of tech companies.

“Section 230 was never meant to require neutrality,” said former Sen. Christopher Cox (R–Calif.), who co-authored Section 230 along with Sen. Ron Wyden (D–Ore.) some 25 years ago, at a July 28 hearing held by the Senate Subcommittee on Communications, Technology, Innovation, and the Internet. “To the contrary, the idea is that every website should be free to come up with its own approach” to content moderation, Cox said.

Nonetheless, Trump’s order directs the Department of Justice, the Federal Trade Commission (FTC), and the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) to review ways that Twitter and other tech companies might be exhibiting bias and how this might be used to say Section 230 doesn’t apply to them. And, in July, the Department of Commerce formally asked the FCC to follow through.

The good news is that the FCC can do little to reinterpret a law whose statute is so clear, and at least several commissioners appear to have little interest in looking for interpretive wiggle room.

“The FCC shouldn’t take this bait,” Commissioner Jessica Rosenworcel said in a July 27 statement. “While social media can be frustrating, turning this agency into the President’s speech police is not the answer.”

“We’re an independent agency,” Commissioner Geoffrey Starks pointed out during a July 17 panel hosted by the Information Technology and Innovation Foundation, adding that the “debate [about Section 230] belongs to Congress.”

‘Censorship Is a Bipartisan Objective’

That Trump’s executive order on social media is toothless is a good thing, since Section 230 has allowed so much of what we love (and politicians hate) about the modern internet to flourish. However, the order seems to be working as a political rallying cry on the right.

It’s “so cartoonish that you would think people on his side would distance themselves from it,” says Goldman. Yet the order, “for all its cartoonishness, seems to be getting people in line instead of pushing them away.”

For Republicans, animosity toward Section 230 turns largely on alleged fears about anti-conservative bias from social media companies. “That [idea] has penetrated pretty deeply among the activist and politician class” on the right,” says Zach Graves, head of policy at the Lincoln Network.

Though Graves thinks Trump’s executive order on social media is pure “political theater” and “won’t get anywhere by itself,” he notes that “there are a lot of other grievances” besides the alleged anti-conservative attitudes.

In early June, the American Principles Project—a newly launched think tank dedicated to promoting nationalist and Trump-friendly public policy—released a plan for altering Section 230 aimed at “protecting children from pornography and other harmful content” in “the digital public square.” Mike Masnick, executive editor of Techdirt, described the proposal as an attempt “to bring back the rest of the Communications Decency Act”—that is, the parts aside from Section 230, all of which were struck down by the Supreme Court as unconstitutional.

By the end of June, the Department of Justice had released its own four-pronged reform proposal and South Dakota Republican Sen. John Thune—joined by Hawaii Democrat Brian Schatz—offered up the Platform Accountability and Consumer Transparency (PACT) Act, a bill that would put the federal government at the center of social media content moderation.

The Electronic Frontier Foundation (EFF), a digital privacy rights nonprofit, called the PACT Act “a serious effort to tackle a serious problem: that a handful of large online platforms dominate users’ ability to speak online.” But it opposes the bill because of well-founded fears of unintended consequences, including “more illegitimate censorship of user content” by dominant tech companies; its threat to “small platforms and would-be competitors to the current dominant players”; and the “First Amendment problems” it presents.

In July, Hawley introduced a less serious effort: the Behavioral Advertising Decisions Are Downgrading Services (BAD ADS) Act, which Hawley’s office describes as “a bill to remove Section 230 immunity from Big Tech companies that display manipulative, behavioral ads or provide data to be used for them” and “crack down on behavioral advertising’s negative effects, which include invasive data collection and user manipulation through design choices.” (This follows two of Hawley’s previous anti-tech measures on similar themes going nowhere.)

Meanwhile, Democrats have been sounding anti-tech alarms, too, as well as pursuing similar solutions, albeit under different guises. For instance, Beto O’Rourke, during his presidential run, included Section 230 reform in his proposal for “combating hate and violence.”

Democratic Senator and vice-presidential candidate Kamala Harris has targeted Section 230 as part of her crusade against “revenge porn.”

And in response to Facebook refusing to remove an ad featuring false information about Biden, the Democratic presidential candidate said in January that “Section 230 should be revoked, immediately … for Zuckerberg and other platforms.”

People on both the right and the left “want to erode [Section 230] in order to put an affirmative pressure on platforms to be cops for various kinds of harms or illegal activities,” says Graves, “and there are people who think liability is the tool to do that.” The Overton window on the issue has been moved, he adds.

“It used to be a kind of sacred cow that people couldn’t touch” but now there are coalitions with well over 60 votes in the U.S. Senate to take action on Section 230 and even to revoke it, Graves says. “But it probably won’t be wholesale, it will be chipping away based on a feel-good cause.”

That’s exactly the point of the EARN IT Act. Proposed in March by Sen. Lindsey Graham (R–S.C.), the bill—which got a hearing in March and was placed on the Senate calendar in July—targets Section 230 under the guise of stopping the “online sexual exploitation of children.” It has a roster of prominent bipartisan co-sponsors, including Richard Blumenthal (D–Conn.), Ted Cruz (R–Texas), Dianne Feinstein (D–Calif.), and Chuck Grassley (R–Iowa).

The legislation that began this trend—the 2018 law, FOSTA—was also alleged to target online sexual exploitation and also enjoyed extremely bipartisan support. FOSTA was sold as a bill to target child sex traffickers, but really took aim at consensual adult prostitution and sex work more broadly, as well as online speech about these issues. (Prominent Democrats including Sens. Ro Khanna, Elizabeth Warren, and Bernie Sanders have since backed legislation aimed at studying FOSTA’s impact and perhaps working toward its repeal, but it has yet to gain hardly any traction.)

The fight to abolish or severely restrict Section 230 shows “how tempting censorship is to all sides,” says Goldman. “Turns out that censorship is a bipartisan objective.”

Perhaps that explains why—with so many life-or-death matters on American minds right now and an election on the close horizon—authorities are still paying so much attention to relatively obscure tech policy laws and the content moderation moods of private companies.

With the COVID-19 pandemic still raging on, police brutality and racial justice issues under a microscope, and urgency around concerns like voter suppression, “you would think Section 230 would drop down the list” of things politicians spend time talking about, says Goldman. “But you know, censorship is like catnip to regulators.”

It’s anyone’s guess whether political focus on social media rules and internet regulation will persist as the 2020 election season really gets underway. “A lot depends on Trump,” says Goldman. “If he wants to keep banging this drum, that’s going to keep ratcheting up the pressure on Section 230.”

But even if backlash against Section 230 quiets down, there are no shortage of election-friendly issues for politicians and parties to wield against tech companies.

In the last week of July alone, the Senate held a hearing on digital copyright law and the aforementioned Section 230 hearing featuring the law’s author, Cox, (a spectacle loosely centered around the PACT Act) while the House hauled the chief executives of Apple, Amazon, Facebook, and Google before its Judiciary Committee.

The latter was purportedly a probe into possible violations of federal antitrust law, but turned into a long, weird airing of grievances against tech companies that had little to do with anti-competitive business practices and often saw Democrats and Republicans proposing diametrically opposed solutions for these companies to adopt. At times, lawmakers from both parties went back and forth between demands for more content and users to be suppressed, and less.

The hearing hopped seemingly at random from topic to topic: Lawmakers asked about, among other things, social media content moderation, election integrity, fake news, privacy issues, data collection transparency, counterfeit products in online marketplaces, ideological diversity among tech company staff, court-ordered takedowns of speech, general support for “American values,” contracts with foreign governments, working with police and turning over user data without warrants, how search engines work, how Apple chooses what apps and podcasts to allow in its stores, and even how Gmail content gets marked as spam.

More than a few times, their questions made clear they had no idea what they were talking about. (One Republican asked Mark Zuckerberg, Facebook’s chief executive, why the platform had taken down a post by Donald Trump, Jr., but the takedown had actually occurred on Twitter.) Their demands were often contradictory. The only clear implication of the hearing was this: There was no way for tech companies to win.

‘We Will Lose a Little Bit of Freedom’

Looked at one way, the techlash makes little sense since it comes at a time when Americans are relying more than ever on technology to mediate their lives. But that may be exactly why the industry has come under fire.

When it comes to the pandemic, “I do think there’s going to be a [tech policy] reaction,” says Arthur Rizer, “and I think that reaction is going to be that we will lose a little bit of freedom through technology for the sake of safety, as it historically has always been.” As one example, he points to the use of facial recognition technology by police departments who said it would only be used for solving certain serious crimes but recently admitted to “using it to find who was out and about during quarantine.”

“Every time this country faces an emergency,” Rizer says, “we kind of act poorly when it comes to our civil liberties.”

Kazaryan notes that a new California “privacy” law places serious burdens of time and money on any businesses that interact online—something that could prove tough right now, especially for small businesses, as people struggle to come back from the pandemic and lockdowns. Yet its requirements and effects have received little attention amid all the chaos right now.

Pressure from outside-government groups to ramp up regulation on digital media and tech companies could also grow if economic pressure gets worse.

Graves sees techlash partly as a normal response to “the growth in power and pervasiveness of the companies,” with them simply facing the same sort of interference and resistance that any mega-corporation gets from regulators and activists.

“Part of it is fears and anxieties” about the power they have. But another part of the push for new tech regulation is “opportunistic,” he adds, pointing to hotel industry lobbying against Section 230 because it benefits home-sharing companies like Airbnb, or newspapers lobbying against it because it helps their digital competitors.

“A lot of what’s driving the techlash is these sort of inter-industry fights,” not because “it’s the issue that people are thinking about when they’re going to the polling booth,” Graves says. And right now, with “a collapse in the advertising market [and] a lot more consolidation in some industries,” this sort of competition—and attempts to use government regulation to one side’s advantage—only stands to get worse.

In the case of TikTok, Chinese parent company ByteDance seems to have gotten caught up in two different political fights. The first is the Trump administration’s international power struggle with the Chinese government and associated worries that the Chinese government could order companies to turn over data about U.S. users. The second involves the president’s personal grievances with the app, after TikTok teens were rumored to have signed up for tickets to a Trump campaign rally and then not used them, leaving the president planning for heavy rally attendance that didn’t pan out.

In addition to political threats and competitive pressure, large tech companies—particularly Facebook—are facing demands from progressive activists and identity-based interest groups to crack down on more speech. Earlier this summer, groups including the Anti-Defamation League and the NAACP “helped push hundreds of companies, such as Unilever and Best Buy, to pause their advertising on Facebook to protest its handling of toxic speech and misinformation,” as The New York Times reported. Misinformation fears and activism around them seems only likely to increase as the election heats up and the pandemic wears on. And that means pressure to crack down is likely to increase.

Techlash Could Make Coping With COVID-19 and Documenting Police Abuse More Difficult

If and when that happens, it will be our loss.

Not only does the political obsession with regulating and punishing Big Tech distract from more pressing issues, from police abuse to the economic downturn due to pandemic-related lockdowns, it also makes it more likely that we will struggle to address those problems.

Think about all the ways digital tools and tech companies have ensured access to up-to-date and diverse information during the pandemic. Think about all the online streaming services, interactive video games, e-book purveyors, podcast makers, and apps that have been keeping us entertained. The many kinds of free chat services letting us keep in touch with friends, family, and colleagues. The online educational tools helping to make homeschooling at least somewhat tenable. All the crowdfunding donation platforms, people-powered marketplaces like Etsy and eBay, and gig economy apps from Uber to Patreon that are helping people make ends meet.

It’s fair to say this is far from ideal. But without today’s technology, it would be so much worse.

Now think about the recent pushback against law enforcement being able to hurt and kill people—especially black Americans—with impunity. Think about the way we’ve seen police and federal agents react in recent weeks to protesters and the press covering them.

Think about how much of that would still have happened without not just smartphones and digital video but also quick, accessible, and gatekeeper-free ways to share and spread that video.

Without social media, “there are so many important conversations that would have never happened,” says Kazaryan, referring to recent protests and activism around police racism and brutality. In addition, she points out, “tech companies have been creating jobs and providing tools for people to do their jobs” while we deal with the coronavirus.

A more immediate consequence of anti-Section 230 efforts will be forcing social media companies—and the rest of the internet along with them—to crack down on content from users and ratchet up content and account removals.

By seriously raising the legal hoops that these entities must jump through to defend their First Amendment rights, and the potential legal liabilities if they can’t, the government will leave online speech platforms with little choice but to severely curtail the amount and types of speech allowed—thereby increasing the social media “censorship” problems that Trump and company say they’re out to fix. The only other sound strategy for these companies is to give up on content moderation entirely to avoid any way of “knowing” about bad content—thereby increasing the amount of obscene, violent, harassing, or otherwise objectionable content which anti-Section 230 laws claim to thwart.

So what looked like a moment of redemption might turn out, instead, to be a tipping point in the other direction. “I think that the fundamental forces driving the techlash are going to be made worse, not better, by COVID,” says Graves.

“Whatever goodwill that [tech companies] have picked up is either gone or [has] been spent,” Rizer says.

The techlash may only just be getting started.

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Rocker Nick Cave: Cancel Culture Is ‘Bad Religion Run Amuck’

nickcave10-21

Earlier this year, the highly regarded Australian rocker and “Goth heartthrob” Nick Cave criticized “perpetually pissed-off…pearl-clutchers” who demand that old songs, novels, and other works of creative expression be censored or changed when they offend contemporary sensibilities. Writing in his monthly newsletter The Red Hand Files, he averred

I would rather be remembered for writing something that was discomforting or offensive, than to be forgotten for writing something bloodless and bland.

In the most recent edition of The Red Hand Files, Cave again takes aims against “cancel culture,” especially what he sees as its “refusal to engage with uncomfortable ideas” and “asphyxiating effect on the creative soul of a society.” Cancel culture, he writes, “is mercy’s antithesis,” an impulse that combines the worst aspects of religious fervor and ideological certitude.

Political correctness has grown to become the unhappiest religion in the world. Its once honourable attempt to reimagine our society in a more equitable way now embodies all the worst aspects that religion has to offer (and none of the beauty) — moral certainty and self-righteousness shorn even of the capacity for redemption. It has become quite literally, bad religion run amuck.

Cancel culture’s refusal to engage with uncomfortable ideas has an asphyxiating effect on the creative soul of a society. Compassion is the primary experience — the heart event — out of which emerges the genius and generosity of the imagination. Creativity is an act of love that can knock up against our most foundational beliefs, and in doing so brings forth fresh ways of seeing the world. This is both the function and glory of art and ideas. A force that finds its meaning in the cancellation of these difficult ideas hampers the creative spirit of a society and strikes at the complex and diverse nature of its culture.

Cave, whose music, novels, and other writings often explore themes of violence, death, and guilt, has become a reliable defender of absolute creative freedom in an age that seems to increasingly embrace ideological and political conformity. Born in 1957 and long on the fringes of mainstream acceptance, he is a survivor of battles over indecency and censorship waged in the 1980s and 1990s who has managed to become not just a critical darling but something of a wise elder (in 2017, he was even inducted into the Order of Australia). He remains idealistic in the face of cancel culture, writing “we are a culture in transition, and it may be that we are heading toward a more equal society” even as he forcefully champions free speech and free thought in an age of conformity.

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What’s Driving The Surge In Chainlink, Now 5th Largest Cryptocurrency

What’s Driving The Surge In Chainlink, Now 5th Largest Cryptocurrency

Tyler Durden

Thu, 08/13/2020 – 12:20

Authored by Michael Kapilkov via CoinTelegraph.com,

We look at the data from Google and DeFi protocols to uncover what’s behind the inexorable rise of LINK.

image courtesy of CoinTelegraph

Chainlink (Link) has experienced a meteoric rise this year, becoming a top-five crypto asset by market capitalization. We took a look at the data from the decentralized finance space as well as Google to help explain this phenomenon.

Source: Kraken

In the past 24 hours, Chainlink has seen another massive rise of 30% (alongside other DeFi tokens like SNX and MKR), which seems tied to demand from yield farmers trying to get their hands on YAM tokens with the much hyped new protocol.

The battle for number five, 2020 edition. Source: CoinMarketCap.

The battle for the number five spot in 2020 has been waged between Bitcoin Cash (BCH), Bitcoin SV (BSV), Litecoin (LTC), Cardano (ADA) and Link, the latter entering the year well behind the other competitors. However, Link kept on rising throughout the year, finally, climbing to the fifth spot as of the time of this writing.

Source: CoinGecko

Chainlink has been making partnership and integration announcements nonstop throughout the year, although adversity is no stranger to its path.

There was a dubious report penned by Zeus Capital that called Chainlink a scam and crypto’s version of Wirecard. Zeus also claimed that it was building a short position in Link with a 99% profit target.

The success of the oracle project has also prompted additional competition. Earlier today, it was announced that a major crypto exchange OKEx is getting into the oracle game. Despite competition and critics, the token price continues to rise. Why?

The decentralized finance space has been all the rage in the crypto world this year, with some comparing it to the ICO bubble. The total Ether (ETH) value locked in DeFi has exploded from just over $1 billion in mid-June to over $4.5 billion by early August. 

Total Ethereum value locked in DeFi. Source: DEFI Pulse.

Most, if not all DeFi applications require some sort of price data feed. A robust, preferably decentralized feed is essential to the prosperity and security of most DeFi apps. The lack of such feeds has led to a number of well-documented debacles. Since Chainlink is the best-known player in this space, it stands to win the most from the growth of the DeFi space.

Popular interest in Chainlink is at an all-time high in the United States and globally, according to data from Google Trends. The overall market sentiment plays an important role in crypto price dynamics. Interest in Bitcoin (BTC) peaked in late 2017 when its price reached an all-time high of $20,000, as captured by the same source.

Google searches and Link price. Source: IntoTheBlock

Thus, two disparate data sources seem to at least partially explain Link’s rise. When Framework Ventures co-founder and early Chainlink investor Michael Anderson told Cointelegraph in April that he expected Link to rise above $25 in the near future, his prediction seemed detached from reality. The price of Link at the time was hovering below $4. Today, it is closer to the forecasted value of $25 than to the price at the time when the forecast was made.

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