IRS Projects Millions Of Jobs Will Vanish For Years

IRS Projects Millions Of Jobs Will Vanish For Years

Tyler Durden

Fri, 08/21/2020 – 14:10

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk,

The IRS projects 37 Million Less W2 Filings in 2021.

IRS Publication 6961 projects huge reductions in W2 filings through 2027.  I picked that up from Bloomberg.

The IRS forecasts there will be about 229.4 million employee-classified jobs in 2021 — about 37.2 million fewer than it had estimated last year, before the virus hit, according to updated data released Thursday. The statistics are an estimate how many of the W-2 tax forms that are used to track employee wages and withholding the agency will receive.

Lower rates of W-2 filings are seen persisting through at least 2027, with about 15.9 million fewer forms filed that year compared with prior estimates.

There’s one category that is expected to rise: The IRS sees about 1.6 million more tax forms for gig workers next year compared with pre-pandemic estimates.

That boost “likely reflects assumptions with the shift to ‘work from home,’ which may be gig workers, or may just be that businesses are more willing to outsource work — or have the status of their workers be independent contractors — now that they work from home,” Mike Englund, the chief economist for Action Economics said.

Fewer W2s, Not Jobs

Those are fewer W2, not jobs.

Some people work multiple jobs or switch jobs multiple times, but 37 million less W2 is surely many millions less jobs assuming the IRS projection is in the ballpark.

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“I’m Not Gonna Back Down”: Bannon Responds To ‘Total Political Hit Job’ Following Arrest

“I’m Not Gonna Back Down”: Bannon Responds To ‘Total Political Hit Job’ Following Arrest

Tyler Durden

Fri, 08/21/2020 – 13:51

Former White House strategist Steve Bannon appeared no worse for wear during his “War Room Pandemic” podcast on Friday – just one day after posting $5 million bail after his arrest on charges of wire fraud and money laundering related to his involvement with Build the Wall – a nonprofit organized by wounded Air Force veteran Brian Kolfage, which raised over $25 million via crowdfunding and built a half-mile section of border wall in Hidalgo County, Texas.

Bannon pleaded not guilty, and was in full fight mode during Friday’s podcast.

This fiasco is a total political hit-job. The timing is exquisite” in the run-up to the 2020 election, said Bannon, adding “I think it is probably the most important election of our time because the stakes now are so high.”

I’m not gonna back down,” Bannon added. “Everybody knows I love a fight. I was called a honey-badger for many years. I’m in this for the long-haul. I’m in this for the fight. I’m going to continue to fight. This was to stop and intimidate people that want to talk about the wall. This is to stop and intimidate people that have President Trump’s back on building the wall,” he said. 

Speaking of Brian Kolfage, Bannon said:

“One thing I can tell you from the heroic effort we did and really, Brian Kolfage – who’s an American Hero. Brian Kolfage is, I think the most wounded airman in the history of the Air Force, to survive. He’s a triple-amputee. Almost bled out multiple times after he was hit during the Afghan and Iraq war. And just an American hero. The pain and nagging that guy still goes through every day – he has dedicated his life, he had this idea, he has dedicated his life to building this wall.” -Steve Bannon

Bannon also claimed that Thursday’s “War Room Pandemic” broadcast has two million viewers from mainland China.

Watch:

Meanwhile, people have questions:

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Mauldin: 3 Truths That Will Define This 3-Part Economy

Mauldin: 3 Truths That Will Define This 3-Part Economy

Tyler Durden

Fri, 08/21/2020 – 13:45

Authored by John Mauldin via MauldinEconomics.com,

The economy recovery, when it comes—and it will—is going to be uneven.

In some parts of the economy, it’s already starting. Other parts will be in what can only be described as a depression for quite some time. And still others are going to take off like a rocket ship.

This three-part economy won’t fit compactly into the V- or U-shaped recovery that some are predicting (read: hoping) for. More likely, it will look like a “K.”

Whether it’s K-shaped or some other to-be-determined letter, there are three truths that will define this economic recovery:

1. This is going to change the way we live. 

We have already seen savings increase, not unlike our parents and grandparents during the Great Depression. It is going to change spending and saving habits. It is going to force businesses and entrepreneurs to adjust in ways that they never dreamed they would need to.

I think it is fair to say that many of us have looked at our lives and decided we don’t need quite as much “stuff” as we did before. We are not going to hunker down in caves, but we may pack them with less paraphernalia.

Each one of those choices represents a buying decision that impacts some entrepreneur who provided that product.

This crisis is simply the greatest demand destruction of our lifetimes. It will come back, but it is not going to come back to what it looked like in 2019. Our future economic buying decisions are going to be different.

Everything, I mean everything, is going to be repriced and thought through. You can’t take anything for granted.

Inflation numbers and measures are going to be warped for at least a few years. We are using old tools to measure a new economy. We are going to have to develop new models to appropriately analyze the world we now live in.

How do we value the price of a home or apartment? I don’t think it is unreasonable to expect 10% unemployment, or something close to it, in the middle of 2021. That is going to affect prices up and down the housing value chain.

How do you value retail and office space? If your tenants are gone, do you pay the mortgage? Hotels will come back, eventually, but who is going to own them? The old private-equity owners or the new ones? At what price? We already knew we had too many retail stores. What is the correct number in the future? How will malls and commercial space be repurposed?

Hundreds, if not thousands of planes are sitting on the tarmac. Who is going to own them?

There are thousands of scenarios playing out in thousands of industries all over the world. What they have in common is that…

Everything is going to be repriced.

That makes me very uncomfortable.

2. Inequality is not going to get better. 

Thought experiment: It is more than probable we will see some form of universal basic income in the future. It will not solve the inequalities of either income or wealth, but it will still be tried.

Those individuals who were part of the devastated service economy will still struggle for jobs, and they are in the lower income group already. The second part of the economy will be growing and pulling away from that first part.

And that doesn’t even begin to describe what happens to the disruptors.

Just for the record, in this letter and on op-ed pages in various publications, I outlined a methodology for increasing taxes while actually improving the ability to create new businesses and to help those in the lower echelons of income.

I am not a priori against higher total revenue for the government. It’s all about how we collect it. Social justice as our driving mechanism for tax policy is not going to improve the comity in our country.

3. We have two major cycles coming into play at the same time in this decade. 

One I have written about on numerous occasions: The End of the Fourth Turning. It is always a time of great social unrest, and we are just at the beginning of the end. I expect the period between the middle of this decade and the end to be far more disruptive than where we are today.

Second, my friend George Friedman has written a book called, “The Storm Before the Calm: America’s Discord, the Coming Crisis of the 2020s, and the Triumph Beyond.”

In it, he discusses two separate cycles in American history, an 80-year cycle and a 50-year cycle. Both are disruptive. For the first time, they coincide in the latter part of this decade.

He predicts that the 2020s will bring dramatic upheaval and reshaping of government, foreign policy, economics, and culture.

A two-part/three-part economy, where the outcomes for significant portions of the population are dramatically different, is a recipe for the types of crises both of their books outline.

And just so I can pile on, just as we are in the middle of their crises, we get to experience The Great Reset. It is a toss-up whether we will have a $30 trillion national debt by New Year’s Day. We will be at $40 trillion by 2025. Plus massive corporate debt and multiple pension crises that will boggle the mind.

All of the debt MUST be “rationalized.” We have absolutely no idea how, because we don’t know who will be in charge or what the crisis will look like.

I am a believer in the entrepreneurial free market society, and I believe that is what will ultimately bring us into that period that George Friedman calls “The Calm” after the upheaval of the ’20s.

I am excited about the future. I truly think we are on the cusp of actually reversing aging in our lifetimes, if not this decade. And that’s just one of many other wonderful things.

As my dad would say, don’t let the bastards—the crisis around you—get you down.

Look for the opportunity. There’s a pony in there somewhere.

*  *  *

I predict an unprecedented crisis that will lead to the biggest wipeout of wealth in history. And most investors are completely unaware of the pressure building right now. Learn more here.

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Oregon Ballot Initiative Would Decriminalize Low-Level Possession of All Drugs

Oregon drugs

Voters in Oregon will have the chance to approve an ambitious criminal justice reform agenda this year. The Drug Addiction Treatment and Recovery Act, or Measure 110, would reclassify low-level possession of illegal substances from a misdemeanor to a violation, prompting either a $100 dollar fine or a health assessment.

Drug trafficking would still be considered a felony, while substantial possession would be reduced to a misdemeanor. The measure would also expand rehabilitation services and open 24-hour Addiction Recovery Centers. 

According to a report released by the Oregon Criminal Justice Commission, the proposed reclassifications could lead to 1,800 fewer Oregonians being convicted of felony possession of a controlled substance each year, a drop of about 95 percent from the current conviction rate. 

The report notes that Measure 110 would particularly benefit racial minorities, as racial disparities in both arrests and convictions would “fall substantially.” For instance, arrests of blacks, who are disproportionately affected by the drug war, would fall 93.7 percent. It would fall 82.9 percent for Asians, 86.5 for Hispanics, 94.2 for Native Americans, and 91.1 for whites.

The report adds that “inequities [may] exist in police stops, jail bookings, bail, pretrial detention, or other areas” but there is not “sufficient or appropriate data to examine those stages.”

Measure 110’s addiction programs would cost $57 million annually, to be funded entirely through excess taxes collected on cannabis sales, which are expected to net $182.4 million from 2021 to 2023. Anthony Johnson, one of the chief petitioners of the Yes for 110 Campaign, predicts that as tax revenues increase and the state realizes the savings incurred by decriminalization, even more funds can be reallocated to treatment and rehabilitation.

The campaign has primarily been organized online, leaning on supporters to get the word out. “There’s no playbook for how to campaign in a pandemic,” Johnson says. Nonetheless, he thinks it has “a really good chance of winning” this fall. “Our communications with voters all across the state shows that voters understand that the status quo is not working. We’re clearly not going to arrest our way out of addiction.”

The measure has been endorsed by many prominent individuals and organizations, ranging from the Oregon branch of the American Civil Liberties Union to several county district attorneys.

Oregon has long been at the cutting edge of drug reform efforts. The state legalized recreational cannabis in a 2014 ballot measure, and a 2017 law slashed some penalties for possession of small quantities of cocaine, LSD, and other illegal substances. Oregon voters will also have a chance this November to approve medicinal use of psilocybin at licensed treatment centers.

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Post Office Expects $9 Billion Loss This Year, Will Prioritize Mail-in Ballots Before Election Day

sipaphotosten974815

Postmaster General Louis DeJoy attempted on Friday to depoliticize recent policy changes that have slowed mail service and to calm worries that the post office will be unable to process an expected surge in absentee ballots amid the COVID-19 pandemic.

In testimony to the Senate Homeland Security Committee, DeJoy promised that mailed ballots would be given priority in advance of November’s general election. But he also stressed the dire financial straits facing the U.S. Postal Service—circumstances that have been worsened by the pandemic and that will necessitate changes if the post office is to remain functional.

“As we head into the election season, I want to assure this committee and the American public that the Postal Service is fully capable and committed to delivering the nation’s election mail securely and on-time,” DeJoy told the committee. He voiced support for voting by mail—saying that he intends to vote by mail himself—and promised that “the Postal Service will deliver every ballot.”

The post office has found itself at the center of controversy after reports of delivery delays and disconnected mail-sorting machines. Democrats have accused DeJoy, who became postmaster general in June after a successful career as head of a private-sector logistics firm, of implementing those changes in order to interfere with the election. Most states have expanded the availability in mail-in voting this year in response to the coronavirus pandemic and in hopes of preventing crowding at polling places.

Both sides have been blowing the issue out of proportion. President Donald Trump has alleged that the more widespread use of mail-in voting is ripe for fraud, but there is no evidence to support that claim; Trump himself has voted by mail as recently as March of this year. Democrats, meanwhile, believe DeJoy is engaged in a nefarious plot to disenfranchise Americans, even though the expected uptick in mail volume around the election would fall well within the post office’s usual capabilities.

It’s good to see that DeJoy is trying to lower the temperature surrounding this debate. He told the committee on Friday that more “dramatic changes” to mail service will be postponed until after the election.

That makes sense. But make no mistake about it: Dramatic changes are necessary. The post office, DeJoy said, is facing the prospect of a $9 billion shortfall this year alone—a huge total for an agency that is supposed to be self-sustaining.

If members of Congress are surprised to learn that the post office needs serious reforms, they haven’t been paying attention. The Government Accountability Office warned in May that the post office’s business model is “not financially sustainable” after it lost $78 billion since 2007.

Pension costs are driving those losses. At the end of 2019, the postal pension fund had $50 billion in unfunded liabilities—that’s the long-term gap between what the fund expects to pay out to current and future beneficiaries and the amount of revenue the fund is expected to collect from workers’ paychecks and investment earnings. The fund that covers health care expenses for retired postal workers is facing a $69 billion unfunded liability.

But the post office can’t do anything about those pension costs without congressional approval, DeJoy reminded the committee on Friday. Indeed, the post office has been asking Congress for years to approve changes to help stanch the bleeding, including reducing delivery days, closing locations that have few customers, and repealing collective bargaining. If members of Congress aren’t going to support wholesale changes to how the Portal Service does business, they shouldn’t be surprised when DeJoy tries to save money in the few ways available to him.

The good news is that the post office’s longterm troubles are mostly disconnected from partisan electoral politics, and that the Portal Service should be capable of handling mail-in ballots in November. The bad news is that, once the election is over, not many people are likely to keep caring care about the very real problems that do exist within America’s mail system.

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The Cops Took This Guy’s $15,000 Jeep Because His Girlfriend Allegedly Used It for a $25 Marijuana Sale

Kevin-McBride-GI

Tucson handyman Kevin McBride was hard at work one Friday last May when his girlfriend offered to get him a cold drink from a convenience store. She took his Jeep, his sole means of transportation and the basis of his livelihood. Then the cops took his Jeep, and local prosecutors are now demanding a $1,900 ransom before he can get it back.

This sort of shakedown would be clearly felonious if ordinary criminals attempted it. But as McBride discovered, it is legal under Arizona’s civil asset forfeiture law. The cops said McBride’s girlfriend had used his Jeep to sell a small amount of marijuana to an undercover officer for $25. Although the charges against her were dropped, the Jeep is still being held as a party to that alleged offense, and McBride has to pay for the privilege of getting his property back.

“They’re extorting money from me,” McBride says, “and I didn’t do anything. I don’t know how they can do that. You know, we don’t live in a free country anymore, because that’s not freedom.”

Ordinarily, someone in McBride’s position would be inclined to give in, since challenging the forfeiture would cost thousands of dollars in legal fees, and there would be no guarantee of winning. But the Goldwater Institute is representing McBride pro bono, arguing that Arizona’s system of legalized theft violates the Fifth Amendment’s guarantee of due process and the Eighth Amendment’s ban on excessive fines.

When he began to wonder what was keeping his girlfriend, McBride hitched a ride to the convenience store, where he was dismayed to find police loading his Jeep onto a flatbed truck. When he asked the cops what was going on, he was handed a phone number to call for an explanation. He tried the number for three weeks before someone answered, which is when he found out that his Jeep had been seized because of the alleged marijuana sale.

Under civil forfeiture law, neither the fact that McBride was not accused of a crime nor the fact that the charges against his girlfriend were dropped made any difference. Officially, the Jeep itself is accused of participating in criminal activity. If McBride could scrape together the money for a lawyer to challenge the forfeiture, the government would have to show by “clear and convincing evidence” that the Jeep was involved in a penny-ante marijuana sale.

That is actually an improvement on the standard that applied before Arizona amended its forfeiture law in 2017, when “a preponderance of the evidence” (any probability greater than 50 percent) was enough. But the current standard is still a much lighter burden than proof beyond a reasonable doubt, the rule that applies in criminal cases. And unlike criminal defendants, innocent owners like McBride have no right to court-appointed counsel, which makes it much easier to pressure them into “mitigation” agreements like the one proposed by the Pima County Attorney’s Office.

“An outright return of the vehicle is inappropriate in this case,” Deputy County Attorney Kevin Krejci asserted in an August 11 letter to McBride. Instead, “the state offers the following mitigation of forfeiture,” Krejci wrote, saying the Jeep “would be released from forfeiture for $1,900.00.” But “if we cannot agree on this mitigation, then the state will proceed with a Declaration of Forfeiture.” Since Arizona assigns 100 percent of forfeiture proceeds to the law enforcement agencies responsible for the seizure, this proposal is tantamount to demanding a bribe for the return of stolen property.

Arizona, like the federal government, allows owners of seized property to argue that they should get it back because they were unaware that it was being used for illegal purposes. But then the burden is on them to show they “did not know and could not reasonably have known” about that illegal use. In other words, property owners like McBride are presumed guilty unless they can prove otherwise. So much for due process.

The Goldwater Institute also argues that the forfeiture of McBride’s Jeep violates the Excessive Fines Clause, which the U.S. Supreme Court last year ruled applies to civil forfeiture cases. McBride says his Jeep is worth about $15,000, or 600 times the value of the marijuana that his girlfriend was accused of selling.

“If the forfeiture of a $15,000 Jeep over $25 worth of marijuana is not excessive,” says Goldwater Institute senior attorney Matt Miller, “then it is difficult to imagine what would be.” The government presumably will argue that the $15,000 loss is perfectly reasonable given Arizona’s draconian penalties for selling small amounts of marijuana, which include up to two years in jail and a maximum fine of $150,000 for amounts less than two pounds.

“In Arizona, as in most states, someone does not need to be convicted of a crime before their property can be forfeited,” Miller notes. “Even though forfeiture was meant to be used to target the property of major criminals—like drug kingpins—it is predominantly used against the little guy, even when he has done nothing wrong.”

In this case, the little guy is taking a stand against the government’s extortion. “Kevin has joined with the Goldwater Institute to inform the government that if they proceed with the forfeiture and take him to court, he will countersue not only get his Jeep back, but also to have Arizona’s civil forfeiture scheme declared unconstitutional,” Miller says. “If he is successful, it will be a victory for all Arizonans.”

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Oregon Ballot Initiative Would Decriminalize Low-Level Possession of All Drugs

Oregon drugs

Voters in Oregon will have the chance to approve an ambitious criminal justice reform agenda this year. The Drug Addiction Treatment and Recovery Act, or Measure 110, would reclassify low-level possession of illegal substances from a misdemeanor to a violation, prompting either a $100 dollar fine or a health assessment.

Drug trafficking would still be considered a felony, while substantial possession would be reduced to a misdemeanor. The measure would also expand rehabilitation services and open 24-hour Addiction Recovery Centers. 

According to a report released by the Oregon Criminal Justice Commission, the proposed reclassifications could lead to 1,800 fewer Oregonians being convicted of felony possession of a controlled substance each year, a drop of about 95 percent from the current conviction rate. 

The report notes that Measure 110 would particularly benefit racial minorities, as racial disparities in both arrests and convictions would “fall substantially.” For instance, arrests of blacks, who are disproportionately affected by the drug war, would fall 93.7 percent. It would fall 82.9 percent for Asians, 86.5 for Hispanics, 94.2 for Native Americans, and 91.1 for whites.

The report adds that “inequities [may] exist in police stops, jail bookings, bail, pretrial detention, or other areas” but there is not “sufficient or appropriate data to examine those stages.”

Measure 110’s addiction programs would cost $57 million annually, to be funded entirely through excess taxes collected on cannabis sales, which are expected to net $182.4 million from 2021 to 2023. Anthony Johnson, one of the chief petitioners of the Yes for 110 Campaign, predicts that as tax revenues increase and the state realizes the savings incurred by decriminalization, even more funds can be reallocated to treatment and rehabilitation.

The campaign has primarily been organized online, leaning on supporters to get the word out. “There’s no playbook for how to campaign in a pandemic,” Johnson says. Nonetheless, he thinks it has “a really good chance of winning” this fall. “Our communications with voters all across the state shows that voters understand that the status quo is not working. We’re clearly not going to arrest our way out of addiction.”

The measure has been endorsed by many prominent individuals and organizations, ranging from the Oregon branch of the American Civil Liberties Union to several county district attorneys.

Oregon has long been at the cutting edge of drug reform efforts. The state legalized recreational cannabis in a 2014 ballot measure, and a 2017 law slashed some penalties for possession of small quantities of cocaine, LSD, and other illegal substances. Oregon voters will also have a chance this November to approve medicinal use of psilocybin at licensed treatment centers.

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Post Office Expects $9 Billion Loss This Year, Will Prioritize Mail-in Ballots Before Election Day

sipaphotosten974815

Postmaster General Louis DeJoy attempted on Friday to depoliticize recent policy changes that have slowed mail service and to calm worries that the post office will be unable to process an expected surge in absentee ballots amid the COVID-19 pandemic.

In testimony to the Senate Homeland Security Committee, DeJoy promised that mailed ballots would be given priority in advance of November’s general election. But he also stressed the dire financial straits facing the U.S. Postal Service—circumstances that have been worsened by the pandemic and that will necessitate changes if the post office is to remain functional.

“As we head into the election season, I want to assure this committee and the American public that the Postal Service is fully capable and committed to delivering the nation’s election mail securely and on-time,” DeJoy told the committee. He voiced support for voting by mail—saying that he intends to vote by mail himself—and promised that “the Postal Service will deliver every ballot.”

The post office has found itself at the center of controversy after reports of delivery delays and disconnected mail-sorting machines. Democrats have accused DeJoy, who became postmaster general in June after a successful career as head of a private-sector logistics firm, of implementing those changes in order to interfere with the election. Most states have expanded the availability in mail-in voting this year in response to the coronavirus pandemic and in hopes of preventing crowding at polling places.

Both sides have been blowing the issue out of proportion. President Donald Trump has alleged that the more widespread use of mail-in voting is ripe for fraud, but there is no evidence to support that claim; Trump himself has voted by mail as recently as March of this year. Democrats, meanwhile, believe DeJoy is engaged in a nefarious plot to disenfranchise Americans, even though the expected uptick in mail volume around the election would fall well within the post office’s usual capabilities.

It’s good to see that DeJoy is trying to lower the temperature surrounding this debate. He told the committee on Friday that more “dramatic changes” to mail service will be postponed until after the election.

That makes sense. But make no mistake about it: Dramatic changes are necessary. The post office, DeJoy said, is facing the prospect of a $9 billion shortfall this year alone—a huge total for an agency that is supposed to be self-sustaining.

If members of Congress are surprised to learn that the post office needs serious reforms, they haven’t been paying attention. The Government Accountability Office warned in May that the post office’s business model is “not financially sustainable” after it lost $78 billion since 2007.

Pension costs are driving those losses. At the end of 2019, the postal pension fund had $50 billion in unfunded liabilities—that’s the long-term gap between what the fund expects to pay out to current and future beneficiaries and the amount of revenue the fund is expected to collect from workers’ paychecks and investment earnings. The fund that covers health care expenses for retired postal workers is facing a $69 billion unfunded liability.

But the post office can’t do anything about those pension costs without congressional approval, DeJoy reminded the committee on Friday. Indeed, the post office has been asking Congress for years to approve changes to help stanch the bleeding, including reducing delivery days, closing locations that have few customers, and repealing collective bargaining. If members of Congress aren’t going to support wholesale changes to how the Portal Service does business, they shouldn’t be surprised when DeJoy tries to save money in the few ways available to him.

The good news is that the post office’s longterm troubles are mostly disconnected from partisan electoral politics, and that the Portal Service should be capable of handling mail-in ballots in November. The bad news is that, once the election is over, not many people are likely to keep caring care about the very real problems that do exist within America’s mail system.

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The Cops Took This Guy’s $15,000 Jeep Because His Girlfriend Allegedly Used It for a $25 Marijuana Sale

Kevin-McBride-GI

Tucson handyman Kevin McBride was hard at work one Friday last May when his girlfriend offered to get him a cold drink from a convenience store. She took his Jeep, his sole means of transportation and the basis of his livelihood. Then the cops took his Jeep, and local prosecutors are now demanding a $1,900 ransom before he can get it back.

This sort of shakedown would be clearly felonious if ordinary criminals attempted it. But as McBride discovered, it is legal under Arizona’s civil asset forfeiture law. The cops said McBride’s girlfriend had used his Jeep to sell a small amount of marijuana to an undercover officer for $25. Although the charges against her were dropped, the Jeep is still being held as a party to that alleged offense, and McBride has to pay for the privilege of getting his property back.

“They’re extorting money from me,” McBride says, “and I didn’t do anything. I don’t know how they can do that. You know, we don’t live in a free country anymore, because that’s not freedom.”

Ordinarily, someone in McBride’s position would be inclined to give in, since challenging the forfeiture would cost thousands of dollars in legal fees, and there would be no guarantee of winning. But the Goldwater Institute is representing McBride pro bono, arguing that Arizona’s system of legalized theft violates the Fifth Amendment’s guarantee of due process and the Eighth Amendment’s ban on excessive fines.

When he began to wonder what was keeping his girlfriend, McBride hitched a ride to the convenience store, where he was dismayed to find police loading his Jeep onto a flatbed truck. When he asked the cops what was going on, he was handed a phone number to call for an explanation. He tried the number for three weeks before someone answered, which is when he found out that his Jeep had been seized because of the alleged marijuana sale.

Under civil forfeiture law, neither the fact that McBride was not accused of a crime nor the fact that the charges against his girlfriend were dropped made any difference. Officially, the Jeep itself is accused of participating in criminal activity. If McBride could scrape together the money for a lawyer to challenge the forfeiture, the government would have to show by “clear and convincing evidence” that the Jeep was involved in a penny-ante marijuana sale.

That is actually an improvement on the standard that applied before Arizona amended its forfeiture law in 2017, when “a preponderance of the evidence” (any probability greater than 50 percent) was enough. But the current standard is still a much lighter burden than proof beyond a reasonable doubt, the rule that applies in criminal cases. And unlike criminal defendants, innocent owners like McBride have no right to court-appointed counsel, which makes it much easier to pressure them into “mitigation” agreements like the one proposed by the Pima County Attorney’s Office.

“An outright return of the vehicle is inappropriate in this case,” Deputy County Attorney Kevin Krejci asserted in an August 11 letter to McBride. Instead, “the state offers the following mitigation of forfeiture,” Krejci wrote, saying the Jeep “would be released from forfeiture for $1,900.00.” But “if we cannot agree on this mitigation, then the state will proceed with a Declaration of Forfeiture.” Since Arizona assigns 100 percent of forfeiture proceeds to the law enforcement agencies responsible for the seizure, this proposal is tantamount to demanding a bribe for the return of stolen property.

Arizona, like the federal government, allows owners of seized property to argue that they should get it back because they were unaware that it was being used for illegal purposes. But then the burden is on them to show they “did not know and could not reasonably have known” about that illegal use. In other words, property owners like McBride are presumed guilty unless they can prove otherwise. So much for due process.

The Goldwater Institute also argues that the forfeiture of McBride’s Jeep violates the Excessive Fines Clause, which the U.S. Supreme Court last year ruled applies to civil forfeiture cases. McBride says his Jeep is worth about $15,000, or 600 times the value of the marijuana that his girlfriend was accused of selling.

“If the forfeiture of a $15,000 Jeep over $25 worth of marijuana is not excessive,” says Goldwater Institute senior attorney Matt Miller, “then it is difficult to imagine what would be.” The government presumably will argue that the $15,000 loss is perfectly reasonable given Arizona’s draconian penalties for selling small amounts of marijuana, which include up to two years in jail and a maximum fine of $150,000 for amounts less than two pounds.

“In Arizona, as in most states, someone does not need to be convicted of a crime before their property can be forfeited,” Miller notes. “Even though forfeiture was meant to be used to target the property of major criminals—like drug kingpins—it is predominantly used against the little guy, even when he has done nothing wrong.”

In this case, the little guy is taking a stand against the government’s extortion. “Kevin has joined with the Goldwater Institute to inform the government that if they proceed with the forfeiture and take him to court, he will countersue not only get his Jeep back, but also to have Arizona’s civil forfeiture scheme declared unconstitutional,” Miller says. “If he is successful, it will be a victory for all Arizonans.”

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Peak NASCAR: Kyle Weatherman’s #47 Car Stolen From A Cracker Barrel Parking Lot

Peak NASCAR: Kyle Weatherman’s #47 Car Stolen From A Cracker Barrel Parking Lot

Tyler Durden

Fri, 08/21/2020 – 13:25

The Mike Harmon Racing team, which drives the #47 ‘National Anthem’ car, was on its way back to North Carolina from Daytona Beach when the team decided to stop for something eat.

“What could possible be better than a Cracker Barrel,” the team likely thought to themselves while stopping in Kingsland, Georgia. 

After parking their trucks and trailer, which contained the team’s official NASCAR race car, the team went inside to eat. It was then that surveillance footage showed a person getting into the team’s Ford F-350, “fiddling with the ignition” and eventually stealing the truck and trailer, pulling out onto I-95 south back toward Florida. 

The team’s trailer not only had its #47 Camaro in the trailer, but also the team’s equipment. A second truck and trailer that the team had was left behind in the parking lot. The team is unsure of whether or not the thief knew exactly what he or she was stealing at the time. 

According to Fox News, the “car was displaying a distinctive ‘We Stand for the National Anthem’ livery at the time of the theft. A police report put the value of the items stolen at $400,000.”

The team, meanwhile, is carrying on. It says it is going to still have two cars this weekend at its NASCAR event in Dover. 

“We have other cars, but they aren’t 100 percent. Most teams are that way. You put your best stuff on the car you are running,” Harmon concluded. The team is offering a $5,000 reward for information leading to the recovery of the car. 

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/32hITA5 Tyler Durden