Brickbat: Mistaken Identity

Chad Dearth was confused when he started getting collection notices for toll violations from states along the East Coast. A Kansas resident, Dearth has never even been to some of those states. And the photo of the vehicle included in some of the notices wasn’t his car. It was a big-rig truck. It turns out that the state of Kansas assigns identical number combinations to multiple license plates among those who get specialty or commercial plates. The truck had a number combination identical to the plate on an Impala Dearth he once owned. He sold the Impala years ago but still has the plate at his home. There are more than 625,000 Kansas vehicles with plates that share a number combination with at least one other vehicle.

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Europe Re-Opens Schools – Suffers No Second COVID Wave

Europe Re-Opens Schools – Suffers No Second COVID Wave

Tyler Durden

Thu, 06/04/2020 – 04:15

Ahead of the fall academic year, American parents are asking one question: If schools reopen, will my child be safe from COVID-19

Well, there’s some good news from Europe in the last several weeks. The Wall Street Journal has compiled a list of officials from countries who have overwhelmingly reported, that after a month or so of having education systems open, there are limited to no outbreaks of the virus.

Schools in Denmark, Austria, Norway, Finland, and Germany, have been operating for 1-2 months with no issue whatsoever about the virus. This is excellent news for American parents but also for stubborn US education officials who continue to shutter many school systems across the country for the upcoming academic year. 

Denmark was one of the first Western countries to reopen schools in mid-April and has a tracing system for if an outbreak is detected. 

“Our interpretation is that it may be that the children aren’t that important for the spread of infection,” said Tyra Grove Krause, a senior official with the State Serum Institute. Schools have imposed social distancing, air circulation, and new hygiene measures to reduce transmission risk. 

Norweigan Education Minister Guri Melby said if infections rise in the country, education facilities will remain open. Melby reopened schools on April 20 and has yet to report any significant outbreak. 

Austria reopened on May 18, so far, there has been no rise in infections at schools and kindergartens, a government spokesman said. 

Schools in Germany have been opened for at least a month, with no increase in cases. However, cases have surged at migrant shelters, slaughterhouses, restaurants, and churches, while schools have been widely spared. 

Finland opened schools on May 14, Mika Salminen, director of health security at the Finnish Institute of Health and Welfare, recently said, adding that no new cases have been reported at any schools and or day-care centers. 

Professor Herman Goossens, a medical microbiologist, and coordinator of the European Union, said the main reason for no outbreaks at schools is because children have fewer ACE2 receptors the virus uses to enter the body. 

Goossens said data from around the world showed children accounted for less than 1% of total infections.

Though German Health Minister Jens Spahn recently warned that “the state of science at the moment doesn’t allow for any real conclusions about how much children contribute to the spread of the virus…. There are different assessments, and that makes it especially difficult to make political decisions.”

It appears that children are less susceptible to contracting the virus. Maybe it’s time to reopen America’s schools… The longer schools are shut — the more protesting and rioting from millennials will be seen

 

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Europe’s Natural Gas Glut May Force Supply Cuts

Europe’s Natural Gas Glut May Force Supply Cuts

Tyler Durden

Thu, 06/04/2020 – 03:30

Authored by Tsvetana Paraskova via OilPrice.com,

Europe is so awash with natural gas amid weak demand and limited storage capacity that gas suppliers may have to cut flows to prevent natural gas prices from plunging further.  

Demand for natural gas is still very weak as major economies in Europe are emerging from lockdowns while gas in storage across the continent is at a record high for this time of the year. The natural gas glut has depressed the prices at key European hubs such as the Dutch TTF benchmark. Prices didn’t move much even after the biggest gas exporter to the continent, Gazprom, saw its flows on a key pipeline fall to zero last week.

The flow of natural gas from Russia to Europe via the Yamal-Europe pipeline crossing Poland completely stopped early last week after a two-and-a-half-decade-old transit deal between Russia and Poland expired and after the COVID-19 pandemic battered gas demand in Europe.

Poland has aligned its legislation with the energy regulations of the European Union (EU) and Polish operator Gaz-System began offering capacity bookings on the Polish section of the Yamal-Europe pipeline in accordance with EU regulations, including for Russia’s gas giant Gazprom. But the capacity bookings for the first days following the expiration of the gas transit deal showed little appetite for gas in Europe, according to analysts.

“Natural gas demand is very weak and low prices are signaling supply must be cut,” Trevor Sikorski, an Energy Aspects gas analyst, told Bloomberg.

According to the analyst, another major natural gas supplier to Europe, Norway, could delay some production from the Troll and Oseberg fields due to the weak prices. 

For liquefied natural gas (LNG), U.S. exports are currently unprofitable because the natural gas prices in Europe are lower than the prices of the U.S. Henry Hub benchmark, analysts told Bloomberg.

“Although Europe’s total gas demand is down in comparison to last year, reductions in domestically produced gas and Russian pipeline imports have created more room for LNG to be absorbed. However, the single largest fundamental difference from 2019 is Europe’s vast gas inventories, which currently sit at record seasonal highs and will reduce the continent’s ability to absorb global surplus LNG in Q3 2020,” Wood Mackenzie said in a note on  Tuesday.

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UK Home Prices Fall At Fastest Pace In Decade 

UK Home Prices Fall At Fastest Pace In Decade 

Tyler Durden

Thu, 06/04/2020 – 02:45

Britain’s housing market has taken a serious hit during coronavirus lockdowns. Home prices tumbled the most in a decade in May as consumers were severely damaged by one of the worst recessions in centuries. 

Bloomberg reports nationwide home prices fell 1.7% in May, the largest drop since February 2009. In annual terms, prices increased by 1.8% but down from 3.8% in April, as this suggests home prices will likely slump through year-end. 

Britain’s government eased restrictions on lockdowns and has reopened some businesses as virus-related shutdowns resulted in the worst recession in 300 years. As for policy response, the Bank of England unleashed vast packages of financial support to cushion the economic blow.

Read: BoE Warns Of Worst Economic Slump In 300 Years

Despite the BoE’s rescue packages, manufacturing continued to contract in May, and consumers remained subdued. Retail sales during lockdowns fell at a record pace, along with consumer credit posted its first YoY drop since 2012. 

In April, mortgage lenders approved the fewest home loans on record, with the number of approvals falling to 15,800, the BOE said.

“For now, an unprecedented combination of monetary stimulus, fiscal support, and repayment holidays should cushion and prevent a precipitous and sustained drop in house prices as activity resumes. That buffer will be tested over the coming months as fiscal stimulus is wound back and repayment holidays expire,” Bloomberg analyst Niraj Shah said. 

Samuel Tombs, an economist with Pantheon Macroeconomics, said May’s decline in home prices would likely be the start of a slump that could persist through 2020. 

“Spending and borrowing naturally will rebound in June, when all non-essential shops will reopen,” said Tombs. “But we doubt that households will spend the cash they have accumulated during the lockdown soon, given heightened job insecurity and lingering concerns about catching the virus.”

A distressed consumer, recession, and virus fears could have sparked the beginning chapters of a housing downturn in Britain. 

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For Europe, Trade With China Trumps Freedom For Hong Kong

For Europe, Trade With China Trumps Freedom For Hong Kong

Tyler Durden

Thu, 06/04/2020 – 02:00

Authored by Soeren Kern via The Gatestone Institute,

The European Union has issued a predictably weak and equivocal declaration on China’s growing interference in Hong Kong. European leaders, apparently fearful of retaliation by Beijing, have signaled that economic interests will take priority over the EU’s much-trumpeted founding values of human rights, democracy and the rule of law.

Europe’s continued appeasement of China indicates that the EU will be a weak link in efforts by Western democracies to confront the leadership in Beijing.

On May 29, the foreign ministers of EU member states met by video conference to discuss a common European response to China’s plans to impose a sweeping law that would ban all activities in Hong Kong that are deemed to endanger China’s national security.

Pro-democracy activists and lawmakers say the law, aimed at crushing political dissent, would effectively end the autonomy the city enjoys from Beijing under the “One Country, Two Systems” arrangement.

The unilateral move by China violates an international treaty — The Sino-British Joint Declaration on the Question of Hong Kong — an agreement signed in 1984 by which the United Kingdom, on July 1, 1997, transferred sovereignty of Hong Kong to China in exchange for a promise that the city would enjoy 50 years of limited autonomy under Chinese rule. Under the treaty, China is required to guarantee Hong Kong’s autonomy for another 27 years.

On May 28, the United Kingdom, the United States, Australia and Canada issued a joint statement that reprimanded China over its approach to Hong Kong:

“China’s decision to impose a new national security law on Hong Kong lies in direct conflict with its international obligations under the principles of the legally-binding, UN-registered Sino-British Joint Declaration. The proposed law would undermine the One Country, Two Systems framework. It also raises the prospect of prosecution in Hong Kong for political crimes and undermines existing commitments to protect the rights of Hong Kong people — including those set out in the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights and the International Covenant on Economic, Social and Cultural Rights.”

The British government also announced that it was considering granting citizenship to the nearly three million residents of Hong Kong. The move infuriated China, which fears a massive brain drain from Hong Kong that would jeopardize the city’s role as a global financial and trading hub.

On May 29, U.S. President Donald J. Trump announced sanctions on China:

“China claims it is protecting national security. But the truth is that Hong Kong was secure and prosperous as a free society. Beijing’s decision reverses all of that. It extends the reach of China’s invasive state security apparatus into what was formerly a bastion of liberty.

“China’s latest incursion, along with other recent developments that degraded the territory’s freedoms, makes clear that Hong Kong is no longer sufficiently autonomous to warrant the special treatment that we have afforded the territory since the handover.

“China has replaced its promised formula of ‘one country, two systems’ with ‘one country, one system.’ Therefore, I am directing my administration to begin the process of eliminating policy exemptions that give Hong Kong different and special treatment.

“My announcement today will affect the full range of agreements we have with Hong Kong, from our extradition treaty to our export controls on dual-use technologies and more, with few exceptions.

“We will be revising the State Department’s travel advisory for Hong Kong to reflect the increased danger of surveillance and punishment by the Chinese state security apparatus.

“We will take action to revoke Hong Kong’s preferential treatment as a separate customs and travel territory from the rest of China.

“The United States will also take necessary steps to sanction PRC and Hong Kong officials directly or indirectly involved in eroding Hong Kong’s autonomy and — just if you take a look, smothering — absolutely smothering Hong Kong’s freedom. Our actions will be strong. Our actions will be meaningful.”

Trump also announced restrictions on Chinese nationals coming to study at American universities, and measures to prevent China from stealing technology and intellectual property.

Under U.S. law, Hong Kong enjoys special trade privileges. In November 2019, however, the U.S. Congress overwhelmingly passed the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act of 2019, which places new conditions on this status. The U.S. Secretary of State is now required to certify, annually, that Hong Kong maintains autonomy from mainland China. If this cannot be certified, the U.S. Congress can revoke Hong Kong’s special trade status. This could jeopardize massive amounts of trade between Hong Kong and the United States and dissuade international investments there in the future.

On May 27, U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo announced that “no reasonable person can assert today that Hong Kong maintains a high degree of autonomy from China, given facts on the ground.” He added:

“After careful study of developments over the reporting period, I certified to Congress today that Hong Kong does not continue to warrant treatment under United States laws in the same manner as U.S. laws were applied to Hong Kong before July 1997.”

In stark contrast to the measures announced by the United States and the United Kingdom, EU foreign ministers, under heavy pressure from Germany, have decided not to take any action against China. In a statement issued after the May 29 video conference of EU foreign ministers, the EU expressed “grave concern” about China’s actions in Hong Kong but added that “EU relations with China are based on mutual respect and trust.”

EU Foreign Affairs Commissioner Josep Borrell added that the bloc has no plans for sanctions on either Beijing or Hong Kong:

“We will continue discussing and we will continue to reach out to Beijing. Our reaction has to be commensurate with the steps that have already been taken. We will continue trying to put pressure on the Chinese authorities in order to make them aware that this issue will affect the way we deal with some of the issues of mutual interest. But there is nothing more on the agenda.”

When asked why the EU refused to sign the UK-US joint statement, Borrell replied: “We have our own statements. We do not need to join other people’s statements.”

German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas said that the best way to influence China on the Hong Kong dispute was for the EU to maintain “dialogue” with Beijing:

“I think the past has shown that it is, above all, important to have a dialogue with China in which the EU very cohesively brings both its issues and principles to the fore, and then we will see where this dialogue leads.”

Germany, which takes over the six-month rotating EU presidency on July 1, has announced that it will prioritize relations with China. German Chancellor Angela Merkel is particularly determined to proceed with a major EU-China summit to be held in the German city of Leipzig in September. She is reportedly under intense pressure from German automobile manufacturers, who are concerned about maintaining their access to the Chinese market.

The continued cowardice of European leaders is a reflection not only of Europe’s geopolitical weakness and economic overdependence on China, but also of a moral vacuum in which they refuse to stand up for Western values.

In April, European officials caved in to pressure from China and watered down an EU report on Chinese efforts to deflect blame for the coronavirus pandemic. A few weeks later, the EU Ambassador to China, Nicolas Chapuis, allowed the Chinese government to edit an op-ed article signed by him and the 27 Ambassadors of EU member states, to mark the 45th anniversary of diplomatic relations with China.

The EU authorized the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs to remove references to the origins and the spread of the coronavirus from the article, published in China Daily, an English-language daily newspaper owned by the Communist Party of China.

An EU spokesperson said that the EU allowed China to revise the op-ed because Brussels “considered it important to communicate EU policy priorities, notably on climate change and sustainability…” Borrell later pledged that the EU will never again give in to Chinese censorship.

The head of the Bundestag foreign affairs committee, Norbert Röttgen, tweeted that Europe’s credibility is on the line over its response to China:

“China aims to repress freedom, democracy & the rule of law in #HongKong. #Europe has to condemn such acts of wrongdoing & stand up for the freedoms of Hong Kong’s citizens. It would be disastrous & a huge blow for Europe’s credibility, if #China could rely on us keeping silent.”

Noah Barkin, a senior fellow at the German Marshall Fund of the United States in Berlin, said that the EU should better use the leverage that it has over China:

“Europe can and should respond more forcefully than it has so far. German Greens co-leader Annalena Baerbock has suggested that the EU—and German Chancellor Angela Merkel, the host—cancel its looming summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Leipzig in September 2020 unless Beijing withdraws its national security legislation.

“That would send a strong signal that it will not be business as usual as long as China is violating the spirit of ‘one country, two systems’ in Hong Kong.

“Another step, which is reportedly being considered by British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, is to grant Hong Kong residents asylum in Europe. Germany welcomed two Hong Kong pro-democracy activists in 2019, so such a step would not be unprecedented.

“In an environment where the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) faces global outcry over its handling of the new coronavirus, is under acute political and economic pressure from Washington, and needs foreign investors to help revive its suddenly sputtering economy, the EU has more leverage with Beijing than it has had in quite a while. Using it would help counter the narrative—following two embarrassing recent incidents of self-censorship in the face of pressure from Beijing—that Europe is impotent and weak when it comes to China.”

Theresa Fallon, Director of the Brussels-based Center for Russia Europe Asia Studies, added:

“The uncomfortable truth is that business elites, European bureaucrats, and many European politicians are out of touch with the public’s sentiment on Hong Kong.

“The EU’s anemic statement on Hong Kong is not going to keep anyone at Zhongnanhai, the seat of China’s leadership, awake at night. EU High Representative Josep Borrell didn’t even bother to tweet it. Beijing has taken Brussels’s measure and does not fear their statements, which declare that they ‘will continue to follow developments closely.’

“There has been a concerning culture of complacency and self-censorship in EU diplomacy with the People’s Republic of China which has left the EU neutralized since 2016. If we turn to EU member states, the story is not much better. Merkel embraced trade with China in the hope that it would change China. But the reality is that contact with Beijing has eroded European values.

“Beijing understands that economic issues are paramount. Few European leaders pretend to even care about basic human rights in Hong Kong, and it will be difficult to get unanimity on this issue across Europe due to Beijing’s economic statecraft.

“To paraphrase Edmund Burke, all that is needed for Hong Kong’s ‘one country, two systems’ principle to perish is for good people to do nothing.”

Andreas Fulda, a senior fellow at the University of Nottingham’s Asia Research Institute, launched a petition calling for an end to Germany’s appeasement of China. The petition, titled, “Europe can no longer afford Germany’s failed China policy of ‘change through trade,'” states:

“We need to talk about Germany. Let’s start with an inconvenient truth: German governments, both past and present, have consistently prioritized trade with China over other enlightened German national interests, for example democracy and human rights. Such a commercially-driven China engagement, however, is not a value-free proposition.

“Whether it is the incarceration of 1.5 million Uyghurs and Kazakhs in mainland Chinese internment and labor camps, the suppression of Hong Kong’s democracy movement, or the cover-up of Covid-19: German Chancellor Merkel does not seem to fully appreciate how continued Communist Party rule endangers peace, security and public health, not just in China, but around the world.

“On Monday, May 25, 2020, Europe’s top diplomat Josep Borrell addressed a gathering of German Ambassadors. He told them that the European Union and its member states need to develop a ‘more robust strategy’ toward China. It is self-evident that the EU will struggle to develop a more assertive European China policy without the backing of Germany.

“But how can German diplomats change tack if Chancellor Merkel is unwilling to give directions? It is understandable that a nation which is guilty of the horrors of the Holocaust is wary of playing an assertive global leadership role. But there is also a real danger of an ‘oblivion of power,’ where Germany in fact underutilizes existing leverage in global affairs.

“Germany is often praised for facing up to its Nazi past. Never again has long been a guiding principle of an ethical German foreign policy. But how then can the German government remain silent when Uyghurs and Kazakhs are incarcerated, Hong Kongers have their civil and political liberties stripped away and Taiwanese are threatened with military annexation?

“China under General Secretary Xi Jinping is regressing on all fronts: human rights violations are now systemic and endemic, even criticism by Chinese academics are no longer tolerated, and the Chinese Communist Party is increasingly aping Russian disinformation strategies in Europe. Germany must now ask if it will continue to actively support such a regime.

“So far Chancellor Merkel has failed to answer this question. She has been unable to articulate what enlightened German ideational and material national interests look like beyond trade and investment. This is a serious shortcoming which not only undermines German foreign policy towards China but also makes it harder to develop a new European strategy towards China.

“At a time of heightened geopolitical tensions between the United States and Communist Party-led China, Europe can no longer afford Germany’s unprincipled and failed China policy of ‘change through trade.’ In 2020 it is abundantly clear that China didn’t liberalize and democratize as a result of German car manufacturers enriching themselves by selling cars to China.

“We need a Europe-wide approach which repositions the EU in light of Xi’s increasing totalitarianism. While trade clearly matters, European values need to be defended, too. I ask you to sign this petition to put pressure on the German government. Chancellor Merkel should abandon her failed China policy and join Europe’s search for a more principled approach towards China.”

Mathias Döpfner, CEO of Axel Springer, Europe’s largest publishing company, recently argued that the time has come for Europe to reevaluate its relationship with China:

“Economic relations with China might seem harmless to many Europeans today, but they could soon lead to political dependence and ultimately to the end of a free and liberal Europe. The European Union has the choice. But above all Germany, Europe’s economic motor, has the choice.

“Should we make a pact with an authoritarian regime or should we work to strengthen a community of free, constitutionally governed market economies with liberal societies? It is remarkable that German politics, with its love of moralizing, seems to throw its values out the window when dealing with China. What is at stake here is nothing less than what kind of society we want to live in and our concept of humanity….

“If current European and, above all, German policy on China continues, this will lead to a gradual decoupling from America and a step-by-step infiltration and subjugation by China. Economic dependence will only be the first step. Political influence will follow.

“In the end, it is quite simple. What kind of future do we want for Europe? An alliance with an imperfect democracy or with a perfect dictatorship? It should be an easy decision for us to make. It is about more than just money. It is about our freedom, about Article 1 of Germany’s Basic Law, the greatest legal term that ever existed: human dignity.”

 

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Is a Universal Basic Income Program Worth the Costs?

Spain is the latest country talking about adopting a universal basic income, or UBI, program in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Many libertarians, including myself, have always been open to the idea of moving away from traditional welfare programs to cash payments. That said, I have never come around to endorsing the concept, which suffers from very serious flaws. Unfortunately, the proposed Spanish program would suffer from these same flaws and add a few others to the mix.

The idea of a UBI isn’t new. It isn’t even a particularly progressive idea. Libertarian/conservative scholar Charles Murray of the American Enterprise Institute gave UBI a new lease on life a few years ago when he published his book In Our Hands: A Plan to Replace the Welfare State. Murray argued for an unconditional $10,000 annual cash payment from the government to all adult Americans, coupled with the repeal of all other welfare transfer programs. Further, many libertarian giants such as Milton Friedman, Friedrich Hayek, and even Nobel laureate James Buchanan have praised one form or another of a UBI.

In a world where governments already redistribute income with all of the inefficiency that comes with overlapping bureaucracies, frequently resulting a very mediocre welfare system, the notion of direct cash payments has some appeal due to its relative simplicity and fairness. For many, it is certainly preferable to the current system.

The appeal of a UBI isn’t really about shrinking the size of government. The program cost would be quite large if the monthly payment is around $1,000 and universal, even though the number of public employees required to administer a true UBI system would be smaller than the army of bureaucrats that taxpayers currently employ to administer the welfare system.

For many, an interest in UBI also comes from the perception that welfare programs are demeaning and paternalistic by design. These current programs dictate to poor people what to spend on food, housing, or health care instead of allowing them to determine those trade-offs. In other words, if you believe that all individuals have the capacity to promote their own interests and are, in fact, better able to make decisions about their own lives than anyone else (like government bureaucrats), UBI should pique your curiosity.

But a UBI program does have features that are problematic.

As George Mason University economist Bryan Caplan has noted, a system that taxes everyone in order to redistribute to everyone is nonsensical in and of itself. Then there is the fact that in places where it has actually been tried, UBI has created some disincentives to work. But that’s hardly a surprise since most welfare programs, including the earned income tax credit, also have this downside. The real question is whether UBI is worse than the current system as a whole. One thing is for sure, as a two-year experiment in Finland demonstrated: We know that UBI doesn’t compel people to work.

But there are additional concerns surrounding UBI, which are deal breakers for me. Without a strong guarantee that all anti-poverty measures would be terminated—and that they will not be brought back to life later—UBI is a terrible idea. Under such circumstances, UBI won’t live up to one of its chief selling points, namely, to serve as a more efficient substitute for the highly inefficient welter of existing welfare programs and to do it in a simple and uniform manner. Herein lies a lot of the problem with the Spanish scheme.

For starters, it’s not universal. It’s means-tested, which is to say that the UBI recipients must demonstrate they lack a certain level of wealth or income. This defeats the universal and simple aspects of the system. In addition, Spain’s UBI program would be added on top of existing welfare programs, so it only makes existing programs more complicated, more bureaucratic and more expensive.

A few years ago, George Mason University’s Peter Boettke and Adam Martin of Kings College in London wrote, “The most robust protection against poverty comes from institutions that generate a harmony of interests rather than those that foment distributional conflicts.” A guaranteed income may or may not be an improvement over the current state of affairs, but either way, a massive wealth transfer and regulatory state harms the poor.

COPYRIGHT 2020 CREATORS.COM

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Is a Universal Basic Income Program Worth the Costs?

Spain is the latest country talking about adopting a universal basic income, or UBI, program in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Many libertarians, including myself, have always been open to the idea of moving away from traditional welfare programs to cash payments. That said, I have never come around to endorsing the concept, which suffers from very serious flaws. Unfortunately, the proposed Spanish program would suffer from these same flaws and add a few others to the mix.

The idea of a UBI isn’t new. It isn’t even a particularly progressive idea. Libertarian/conservative scholar Charles Murray of the American Enterprise Institute gave UBI a new lease on life a few years ago when he published his book In Our Hands: A Plan to Replace the Welfare State. Murray argued for an unconditional $10,000 annual cash payment from the government to all adult Americans, coupled with the repeal of all other welfare transfer programs. Further, many libertarian giants such as Milton Friedman, Friedrich Hayek, and even Nobel laureate James Buchanan have praised one form or another of a UBI.

In a world where governments already redistribute income with all of the inefficiency that comes with overlapping bureaucracies, frequently resulting a very mediocre welfare system, the notion of direct cash payments has some appeal due to its relative simplicity and fairness. For many, it is certainly preferable to the current system.

The appeal of a UBI isn’t really about shrinking the size of government. The program cost would be quite large if the monthly payment is around $1,000 and universal, even though the number of public employees required to administer a true UBI system would be smaller than the army of bureaucrats that taxpayers currently employ to administer the welfare system.

For many, an interest in UBI also comes from the perception that welfare programs are demeaning and paternalistic by design. These current programs dictate to poor people what to spend on food, housing, or health care instead of allowing them to determine those trade-offs. In other words, if you believe that all individuals have the capacity to promote their own interests and are, in fact, better able to make decisions about their own lives than anyone else (like government bureaucrats), UBI should pique your curiosity.

But a UBI program does have features that are problematic.

As George Mason University economist Bryan Caplan has noted, a system that taxes everyone in order to redistribute to everyone is nonsensical in and of itself. Then there is the fact that in places where it has actually been tried, UBI has created some disincentives to work. But that’s hardly a surprise since most welfare programs, including the earned income tax credit, also have this downside. The real question is whether UBI is worse than the current system as a whole. One thing is for sure, as a two-year experiment in Finland demonstrated: We know that UBI doesn’t compel people to work.

But there are additional concerns surrounding UBI, which are deal breakers for me. Without a strong guarantee that all anti-poverty measures would be terminated—and that they will not be brought back to life later—UBI is a terrible idea. Under such circumstances, UBI won’t live up to one of its chief selling points, namely, to serve as a more efficient substitute for the highly inefficient welter of existing welfare programs and to do it in a simple and uniform manner. Herein lies a lot of the problem with the Spanish scheme.

For starters, it’s not universal. It’s means-tested, which is to say that the UBI recipients must demonstrate they lack a certain level of wealth or income. This defeats the universal and simple aspects of the system. In addition, Spain’s UBI program would be added on top of existing welfare programs, so it only makes existing programs more complicated, more bureaucratic and more expensive.

A few years ago, George Mason University’s Peter Boettke and Adam Martin of Kings College in London wrote, “The most robust protection against poverty comes from institutions that generate a harmony of interests rather than those that foment distributional conflicts.” A guaranteed income may or may not be an improvement over the current state of affairs, but either way, a massive wealth transfer and regulatory state harms the poor.

COPYRIGHT 2020 CREATORS.COM

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Civil Unrest Was Inevitable – Here’s How It Will Be Exploited To Bring In Tyranny

Civil Unrest Was Inevitable – Here’s How It Will Be Exploited To Bring In Tyranny

Tyler Durden

Wed, 06/03/2020 – 23:40

Authored by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.com,

Mass civil unrest is a cumbersome weapon for societal change; like an oversized caveman club made of oak. You can barely swing it, and when you do you might destroy an enemy with it but you could also unwittingly destroy innocent people at the same time. Once the weapon is in motion adjusting its direction or momentum becomes difficult.

I prefer the scalpel approach – Find the cancer and cut it out directly, rather than bashing at the whole body just to get at one tumor.

Another problem with protests and riots is that they often have no discernible goals, or they lose track of their goals almost immediately. When the initial protests started, they targeted the police precinct in Minneapolis which was home to the officers that killed George Floyd. In my view this was perfectly acceptable. At this stage a majority of Americans were on their side. Many conservatives and law enforcement officers even came out in support of these measures and admonished the actions that violated common police procedure and led to unnecessary death.

But now, the situation has turned into something far beyond the killing of George Floyd. It has become a vehicle for agendas and not surprisingly the establishment benefits most; the very establishment the protesters think they are fighting against.

The riots have been co-opted. Where whites and blacks, conservatives and liberals alike were mostly in agreement, now there are attempts at racial division. Why is the death of Floyd being presented as a race issue in the first place? Why is it not being presented as a psychopath issue?  There are psychopaths in every race in equal numbers, and this should be people’s focus. In other words, psychopaths must be removed from society, whether they be police, politicians, business leaders, “caretakers”, etc. How about some examples…

In Mesa, Arizona in 2017, a white man named Daniel Shaver was murdered by officer Phillip Brailsford after an anonymous tip told police he had a rifle in his hotel room. Though it is not illegal to own a rifle in Arizona and certainly not illegal to bring one into a hotel, a team of officers was sent armed with AR-15s to approach and arrest Shaver. Brailsford ordered the frightened Shaver to crawl across the floor instead of asking him to lay on the ground with his hands and feet spread as is normal police procedure. The man, sobbing in terror, reached to pull up his shorts which were falling off, and was riddled with bullets by Brailsford.

Watching the video, it is clear that Brailsford created a situation in which Shaver could easily “make a mistake” and thereby create an excuse for the officer to kill him in cold blood. As it turned out, the rifle Shaver had in his room was a BB gun. A jury later acquitted Brailsford of any wrongdoing on the grounds that they could not determine “his thoughts and feelings” at the time of the shooting. This sounds strange to me and I don’t think most people on trial for murder get anywhere near the same latitude with so much evidence on hand.

On the same day in North Carolina an officer was sentenced to 20 years in prison for the murder of an unarmed motorist. The difference? The motorist in South Carolina was black.

The point is, psychopathic cops kill people regardless of their skin color. White people are at risk as much as black people. But at least when a black person is wrongly killed, the public and the media might take serious notice. There were no nationwide protests or riots for Daniel Shaver. The establishment works in favor of psychopaths, not white people. In fact, Phillip Brailsford was fired and then REHIRED for a short time by the Mesa Police so that he could still apply for his pension.

What about psychopaths that aren’t white cops? Oh, there are plenty of them, too. How about Mohamed Noor, a BLACK Minneapolis police officer that killed an unarmed white woman, Justine Ruszczyk, in 2017 while responding to her 911 call? Leftist activists including those at the NAACP at the time claimed that Noor was being “unfairly targeted” because he was black. There were no protests or riots for Justine Ruszczyk. Though, luckily, Mohamed Noor did go to jail for his crime.

And if we are going to continue following the thread of violence and psychopathy vs. race, I can’t leave out the black nurse in Detroit that filmed himself torturing elderly patients by beating them repeatedly in their beds, completely unable to defend themselves. The man has been arrested, but again, no riots yet over this horror show.

There are evil people of every race and ethnicity in this world that do terrible things, however, the worst people are those that exploit the tensions that these evil people create in order to turn crisis into opportunity. The reason there are riots happening globally now in the wake of the death of George Floyd is because people are angry, but also, people are malleable and easy to manipulate when they are angry.

The country has just partially “reopened” from the pandemic lockdowns, and more lockdowns are likely before the year is out. Over 40 million people lost their jobs during the economic shutdown and the government checks are not going to sustain the public much longer. Only 13% to 18% of small businesses that requested aid actually received money from the small business bailout, and most of those that did not get money are facing closure. Government restrictions have been accelerating, and people are already on edge. Riots are now an inevitable part of daily life in America.

But with events like the death of George Floyd, the riots can be manipulated.

The rage of the masses can be directed on false issues of race and shallow left/right politics instead of being directed at corrupt government and the elites that created the economic mess we now see before us. The protests over George Floyd started out by raising questions on abuse of power by police, a legitimate cause.  Now they have been poisoned by race politics and outsiders seeking to create useful chaos.

Provocateurs have infiltrated the protests and are attempting to trigger indiscriminate violence. Pre-staged weapons such as piles of bricks, bottles and other items have been appearing magically in protest zones. Property is being destroyed by people not connected to the main protest groups. Odd occurrences are popping up everywhere.

Here is where this is all headed…

As I predicted in 2016 just after the election of Donald Trump, it appears the goal of the establishment is to produce extreme division among the American public and then exploit the hard-left as a weapon to frighten conservatives into supporting martial law. In my article ‘Order Out Of Chaos: Defeat Of The Left Comes With A Cost’, I stated:

With Trump and conservatives taking near-total power after the Left had assumed they would never lose again, their reaction has been to transform. They are stepping away from the normal activities and mindset of cultural Marxism and evolving into full blown communists. Instead of admitting that their ideology is a failure in every respect, they are doubling down.

When this evolution is complete, the Left WILL resort to direct violent action on a larger scale, and they will do so with a clear conscience because, in their minds, they are fighting fascism. Ironically, it will be this behavior by leftists that may actually push conservatives towards a fascist model. Conservatives might decide to fight crazy with more crazy.”

Donald Trump has consistently discussed the use of the National Guard in response to the pandemic and the protests. And now, he is apparently considering using the Insurrection Act to deploy heavily armed military forces to US soil.

Is it just a coincidence that conservatives were the most opposed to medical martial law only a week ago in the face of the pandemic, and now they are considering the merits of martial law in the face of the leftist influenced riots? And who actually benefits from this? Perhaps the elitist establishment that’s been calling for martial law measures from the very beginning?

I have been hearing the narrative everywhere in liberty movement circles that “civil war is here” and “we have to support Trump and martial law to stop it”.   Firstly, I have been warning for years that Trump is controlled opposition.  His cabinet is overflowing with the same banking elites and globalists that the liberty movement stands against. Giving Trump martial law powers is no different than giving the elites around him martial law powers.  If you support martial law and overarching government, then you are NOT a conservative you are a statist, and statists must be opposed by all who value freedom.

These people also don’t understand what “civil war” actually is.  Groups of people protesting is not a war.  What I see primarily is a bunch of ignorant children posing for Instagram photos and pretending they are activists.  And if as the evidence suggests there is a provocateur element infiltrating these protests to stir up violence, then isn’t it possible that their goal is to get us to back martial law policies?

If the infiltrators are extremist communist organizations like Antifa or Black Lives Matter that receive funding from elites like George Soros and his Open Society Foundation, then we should consider the possibility that the intention is not just to influence the protests, but to also influence conservatives to react by supporting violent government power.  If they can trick conservatives into suddenly supporting the lockdowns, curfews, and a national guard/military presence to stop the protests, then they will have defeated us without firing a shot. We will have defeated ourselves and our own constitutional principles.

The bottom line? More government power is NEVER the solution to any problem. Totalitarianism is never the answer.  There will now be endless excuses to declare martial law.  When the George Floyd riots fizzle out, there will be some other trigger event.  In fact, these riots are probably just a precursor to the riots that will rage when the public realizes the US economy is not coming back from the pandemic, and that more lockdowns are coming.  I would not be surprised if the Floyd riots are even blamed for a resurgence of Covid infections, which would give the government a rationale for more lockdowns.  Beware anyone that uses martial law as the go to answer to these crisis events.

The solution in this case is to prosecute the police involved in the murder of George Floyd to the fullest extent of the law, point out that this is a problem of abuse of power and psychopathy, not a problem of race, and to stop outside interests from busing in provocateurs to trigger riots. 

This is being done in some cases by the protestors themselves, who are exposing provocateurs within their ranks and filming them in the act.

The next best step is for businesses to secure and defend their own properties.  We have seen it time and time again; the buildings that have armed personnel on hand to guard them do not get torched.  Of course, right now a number of companies that have property damage due to rioters and looters are actually SUPPORTING the rioters and looters!  Corporations are falling all over themselves to praise the protests and even the riots based on race politics.  They are also pouring millions in cash into “social justice” groups.  We’re supposed to declare martial law and bring in the military to defend the property of companies that are vocal in their solidarity with the looters?  What kind of idiocy is that?  Just let them be looted if they are going to double-down on this hard-left madness.

If this current trend continues it would not surprise me at all if George Floyd becomes a forgotten footnote in the riots that were started in his name. If certain elites get their way, Americans will continue to riot without even knowing why, and those riots will never be aimed at the people that actually deserve it.  In the meantime, the establishment wants at least one side of the political spectrum, at least one half of the population, to support totalitarian measures, and they are clearly targeting conservatives with fear tactics in order to get us on board.

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Nuclear Brinkmanship Is Back: Putin OKs Using Nukes In Response To Conventional Attacks

Nuclear Brinkmanship Is Back: Putin OKs Using Nukes In Response To Conventional Attacks

Tyler Durden

Wed, 06/03/2020 – 23:20

For over the past year it seems every month has witnessed Washington and Moscow upping the ante on nuclear weapons rhetoric, which has been accompanied by the breakdown of key treaties, including recently the landmark Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF) and more lately ‘Open Skies’ — now with even New START on the chopping block.

Russia has vowed that for each time Washington moved the goal posts in terms of backing off of prior policies of nuclear weapons restraint, it would respond in kind. This also as the Trump administration has gone so far as to reportedly seriously consider restarting nuclear tests, which hasn’t been done in three decades. 

Putin appears to now be making good on ‘reciprocal’ threats, on Tuesday signing into effect a new nuclear policy allowing Russia to use nukes in response to conventional arms attacks.  

It’s essentially a clear rejection of a “no first use” policy which escalated nuclear tensions to frightening levels during the Cold War, which a number of world powers have since long fought to implement globally. 

But now the Kremlin policy will mirror the United States official nuclear doctrine, which even includes allowance of deploying a nuke if “reliable information” of a direct threat of ballistic missile attack is confirmed.

As the AP underscored, it sends a direct message and warning to the United States:

In line with Russian military doctrine, the new document reaffirms that the country could use nuclear weapons in response to a nuclear attack or an aggression involving conventional weapons that “threatens the very existence of the state.”

But the policy document now also offers a detailed description of situations that could trigger the use of nuclear weapons. They include the use of nuclear weapons or other weapons of mass destruction against Russia or its allies and an enemy attack with conventional weapons that threatens the country’s existence.

The shift in deterrent policy also appears to preempt the US placing missiles in Europe, a serious fear after the breakdown of the INF.

Needless to say US-Russia relations at their lowest point in post-Cold War modern history, now dangerously close to a nuclear brinkmanship scenario which once witnessed Americans having to huddle into bomb shelters on fears of ‘imminent’ apocalyptic nuclear destruction. 

Perhaps at some point soon we’ll witness a return to the 20th century phenomenon of rapidly construction bomb and fallout shelters across the nation? 

And as a reminder amid this extremely dangerous escalation with apparently “no off ramp” – we were assured for years by Russiagate advocates that Trump is some kind of Russian puppet in the White House, yet at every step he’s in reality worsened relations with Moscow.

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Trump’s Distractions Or Is The Empire In Retreat?

Trump’s Distractions Or Is The Empire In Retreat?

Tyler Durden

Wed, 06/03/2020 – 23:00

Authored by Tom Luongo via Gold, Goats, ‘n Guns blog,

Things continue to spiral out of control in the U.S. as the myth of policing fails and anti-civilizational forces move into the power vacuum.

And while I’m still completely committed to the end of the U.S. empire and its imperial edicts, It’s also not lost on me what’s happening, who’s making it happen and how they are taking advantage of this.

I warned you President Trump’s near atavistic pursuit of U.S. ‘enemies’ in places like Syria, Iraq, Iran and Venezuela would turn the world against us. Look at the protests for George Floyd across Europe and tell me things haven’t changed.

The empire is the problem. It’s a lesson Justin Raimondo taught me at Antiwar.com twenty years ago. And it’s only now that that idea has reached any kind of critical mass.

Are we going to dismantle the empire in an orderly fashion or a chaotic one? The animals on the streets have cast their vote. What’s yours?

And while Trump has made a hash of foreign policy in so many ways, I also told you that he was smart enough to only play the crazy Ivan role up the to point of actually starting a shooting war.

This is his greatest accomplishment as President. Sadly, it shouldn’t be that great an accomplishment.

And all detractors need to remember this, including me. He hasn’t ended existing wars, but he hasn’t started any new ones. And the U.S. political apparatchiks in D.C. have been braying for wars for nearly four years.

Trump’s failure, however, is in not understanding that sanctions, tariffs, and diplomatic strong-arming are acts of war.

They may be a real part of realpolitik but his failure to grasp the nuances of that have led to the present situation internationally where he is effectively being ignored in every way that matters.

At the same time he’s dealing with a domestic insurrection that is both organic and organized, free-spirited and feral.

Here are a list of major incidents over the past week that support the thesis of the failure of the U.S. empire.

They are all significant.

The first is Iran successfully staring down U.S naval blockade threats to deliver refined petroleum and replacement parts to Venezuela. All five tankers made it safely into port and expect another five in the future.

Like with last year’s drone incident and this January’s missile attack on our bases, Iran called Trump’s bluff when push came to shove. As Yra Harris said to me in my recent podcast, do you think the U.S. will go to nuclear war over Turkey? No.

We didn’t do it in 1972 over Taiwan when Nixon sat down with Mao. We’re not doing it today with Iran, China or Russia. Iran understands this. Russia understands this. And China understands this.

So, all Trump has as an effective weapon is excising people from the dollar system, itself the source of most of the U.S.’s real strength, because the military truly can’t be used anymore like it was in the past.

And that weapon is being easily countered.

That is only accelerating the resistance to the U.S.’s hegemony in the long run.

Next up is the completion of Nordstream 2. It’s happening. Yes, Trump and his idiotic sanctions delayed it for a year or so, but that delay forced Ukraine’s hand to sign a terrible gas transit deal with Gazprom which will ensure in five years there will be no gas transiting across Ukraine.

So, does that change the dynamic in Ukraine? Ukraine was the project of Obama, Clinton, Biden, McCain and Nuland. Why on earth would he continue it today?

End the sanctions. End support of Ukraine. The Democrats will scream Russia into a vacuum.

The Russian pipe-laying vessel is in Danish waters doing the work and all Trump accomplished is ticking off the Swiss. None of the legal arm-twisting worked.

More sanctions won’t stop it.

The pipeline will be finished by the end of the year.

The EU gas directive which forces un-bundling of the ownership of the pipeline from the gas going through it was nullified by German courts.

Was anyone surprised by this? Germany gets to become the energy distribution hub for Europe, tying them to Russia. Why would they vote against that?

All the time, money and political capital spent to stop Nordstream 2 which was never going to be stopped because of the economic and political advantages to Germany, have come to naught.

Pipelines are important. They are the seams that bind countries together. Trump knows this but he can’t stop it.

Putin and Russia now have major energy pipelines connecting them to two major NATO countries, Turkey and Germany. All because the Obama administration decided to stop South Stream going through Bulgaria.

So instead of Russia gaining the long-term relationship with and loyalty of Bulgaria, it has gained even stronger relationships with Turkey and Germany. If this isn’t a foreign policy own goal of epic proportions nothing is.

And that’s on Obama, not Trump.

This solidifies Russia’s hold over the Black Sea and gives Russia the ability to support kicking the U.S. influence out of the Eastern Mediterranean. It also ensures that Turkey’s adventurism in the Mediterranean is tempered by Putin, not Erdogan in the end.

When Turkey gets uppity to the point of needing a smack down, Trump won’t hold the hammer, Putin will. And Trump will need Putin to deliver that blow to protect Greece and/or Israel and what happens then?

Still think the Empire needs to be kicked in the nuts by attacking it from within? It’s doing a fine job of self-flagellation from my seat in the bleachers.

The war in Syria is, effectively, over. So is Iraq. Trump understands this dynamic but won’t admit it publicly. In reality, he knows there is little left to do except pull out of the region now. Hence he’s quietly, for him, drawing down troops in Afghanistan at a far faster rate than has been officially recognized.

The Pentagon says that the goal has been for 8,600 troops to be left in the country by mid-July, and they are so ahead of schedule they say they’ll meet that number in June, which is just a few days away. The White House, by contrast, suggested that the US has somewhere in the realm of 7,000 troops left in Afghanistan and that this is set to drop even further.

Afghanistan first. Then Iraq. Then Syria. If reports of Bibi Netanyahu’s pet traitor Jared Kushner’s days in the White House being numbered are true, that timetable could accelerate quickly in the next couple of months as we approach the election.

The big issue surrounding the domestic insurrection today is the ruthlessness of the Empire abroad and at home.

Trump has a chance here to ‘win bigly’ as Scott Adams puts it, by reversing his worst foreign policy excesses, lifting some of the sanctions on places like Iran and Venezuela and reining in the lawlessness of both the jackals in D.C. and on the streets across the U.S.

But he can’t do that if people pile on the side of the vandals fomenting insurrection to cover up their crimes.

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