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Wealthy Americans have been selling real estate in urban areas across the country for rural communities. A new report suggests an evolving trend in this mass exodus, as these folks aren’t just moving to the countryside, but are now fleeing to the Caribbean as inner cities burn with continuing social unrest and the emergence of the virus pandemic. 

Apparently, the Turks and Caicos property market saw a demand surge during the pandemic, according to Mauricio Umansky, founder and CEO of real estate firm The Agency, who spoke with FOX Business. 

“We have definitely seen some extraordinary prices,” Umansky said. 

Sotheby’s International Realty reported sales volume of single-family homes in Turks and Caicos in 1Q20 outpaced the same period of 2019, and condo sales outpaced two years of previous data.

Umansky said the pandemic has made wealthy Americans realize that city centers are no longer safe during public health crises and social instabilities. 

“So there’s a big trend, they want to have a place to sequester and to have that second home if this happens again, and to have a home where the whole family can go, not just a little apartment that they don’t all fit in,” he said.

Turks and Caicos’ health data shows the country remained relatively unharmed by COVID-19, with just 12 cases and one death among a population of approximately 39,000. 

The British Overseas Territory southeast of the Bahamas is expected to reopen on July 22 when Providenciales Airport lifts tourism restrictions.

If readers recall – we recently noted demand for luxury properties in Aspen, Colorado, and Park City, Utah, is “through the roof” as the pandemic had accelerated the trend of wealthy folks seeking shelter in rural communities. 

We’ve also covered the “mad rush” of people leaving the San Francisco Bay Area for rural communities, for Marin County, Napa wine country, and south to Monterey’s Carmel Valley. 

Despite a plunge in existing home sales in May –  Lawrence Yun, National Association of Realtors’ chief economist, confirmed the outbound trend of migration from cities to suburbs: 

“Relatively better performance of single-family homes in relation to multifamily condominium properties clearly suggests migration from the city centers to the suburbs,” Yun said.

“After witnessing several consecutive years of urban revival, the new trend looks to be in the suburbs as more companies allow greater flexibility to work from home.”

And second-home buyers surged…

Individual investors or second-home buyers, who account for many cash sales, purchased 14% of homes in May, up from 10% in April 2020 and from 13% in May 2019. All-cash sales accounted for 17% of transactions in May, up from 15% in April 2020 and down from 19% in May 2019.

Readers now know that wealthy folks aren’t just fleeing cities for rural communities – these folks are leaving the country for the Caribbean as America implodes from within. 

Authored by Lawrence Franklin via The Gatestone Institute,

China’s Communist Party leadership was not pleased to hear a call from Australia for a global inquiry into the origin of the Covid-19 virus and China’s possible role in it.

Australia further requested that the investigation be conducted outside the purview of the World Health Organization (WHO), which had had been spreading lies and disinformation about the transmissibility of the virus. China seems to have decided that Australia’s insistence on an independent study was a violation of the spirit of their bilateral relationship. Indeed, for the past three decades, the Australian economy has been buoyed by expanding commercial ties with China. This relationship has now soured, and China has been threatening Australia with economic warfare unless it reconsiders its inquisitive foreign policy.

Making good on its threat, China slapped an 80% tariff on Australian barley and has threatened to boycott Australian wine and beef. Australian Foreign Minister Marise Payne has rejected any such attempts at economic coercion.

The attacks by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) on Australia’s policies and politicians have since become even more strident and personal. Chinese state-affiliated social media accounts have called Australia “gum stuck to China’s shoe” and suggested that Australia’s head of government had been kicked in the head by a kangaroo. Also, Chinese State Security agents have attempted to silence independent Chinese-language media in Australia by pressuring advertisers to withdraw their sponsorship.

Beijing’s threats to punish Australia seem to be part of an increasingly bullying, aggressive approach by Chinese officials, not only toward Australia, but also toward India, Taiwan and China’s neighbors in the Pacific. The CCP is receiving growing resistance from the Pacific nations to China’s aggressive expansionism. China will nevertheless continue to pull all the levers of its influence in Australia, and most likely elsewhere, to its advantage. China might, for instance, dispatch lobbyists to pressure Australian businessmen who have benefited from past economic cooperation with the Chinese in an effort to persuade political leaders to back off on their criticism of China for its handling of the COVID-19 virus.

China’s decision to play hardball with Australia, however, might be a miscalculation. China’s communist regime may have drawn the wrong conclusions about what they may have hoped would be Australia’s lack of desire to protect its Free World values and its belief that such values are more important than short-term economic advantage.

Australia still needs to lessen its economic vulnerability to China. Extracting itself from the web of relationships that entangle Australia can extricate itself from the claws of the dragon. Australian meat exporters could increase shipments of pork products to Japan, Vietnam, and other Southeast Asian neighbors. Australia, unlike China, enjoys warm relations with all members of the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN). Australia might capitalize on these cordial diplomatic ties to maximize mutually beneficial trade.

Australian political leaders could also create tax incentives to facilitate greater investment by Australian business leaders in India’s enterprises, especially in defense-related industries. Australia could also divorce itself from Chinese supply lines by shifting them to other advanced economies in the region such as South Korea and Singapore. Australia could encourage wholesale imports of computer and electrical products from other East Asian manufacturers of these products. The Australians could decide no longer to export uranium to China from its own mines in the Northern Territory and elsewhere, and thereby discontinue servicing China’s plans to construct about 100 nuclear power plants by 2025. Australia might well find a willing alternative customer in India.

Australia, on June 10, sent a clear message to China by fostering enhanced defense ties with India — China’s rival for Asian leadership. Australian PM Scott Morrison and Indian PM Narendra Modi, in a video conference, announced that the two countries had formed, as a bulwark against Chinese expansionism in Asia, a comprehensive strategic partnership. Australian Minister of Defense Linda Reynolds praised the agreements, which will provide for interoperability of weapons systems and promote sharing defense technologies.

Australia is now ready to be a full partner in the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD), a cooperative defense information dialogue consisting of the U.S., Japan, India, and Australia. Australia will likely also participate in the Indian-sponsored Malabar military exercise, which focuses on how India and Australia might better patrol international straits vital to commerce in the region by using military facilities on Indian and Australian off-shore islands and atolls.

China may continue to bellow, but Australia will remain bound to the West as a nation that embraces democratic political and free market economic values. Australian soldiers have fought alongside U.S. troops in every major conflict since World War I. For instance, Australian Defense Force (ADF) soldiers were among the first to deploy to Afghanistan after 9/11. Shared values between Australians and Americans — and their ability to continue existing as members of the Free world — should be a far more potent magnet than short-term profits.

The only real solution to China’s duplicity and aggression would be for Western nations — all 186 nations that were harmed by China’s lies during the Covid-19 pandemic — to cut all ties with China, to start a firm policy of “Made in America” or “Made Anywhere But China” to show a willing independence from a country that openly aspires to dominate the world.

China — perhaps hoping that everyone is sufficiently distracted by the virus the Chinese Communist Party unleashed on it, as well as by the “free gifts” from China that, in their trade-off for freedom, promise to be fatal — is clearly on the march. The world might remember that it would have been so much easier to stop Hitler before he crossed the Rhine.

After several months of a slow recovery in restaurant dining data in the U.S. and across the globe, there is absolutely no evidence of a V-shaped recovery in the food industry and suggests millions of eateries are on the brink of collapse, consulting firm Aaron Allen & Associates told Bloomberg.

“Based on our estimates, we believe up to 10% of all restaurants globally will disappear, with 20% or more also going through a restructuring process,” said founder Aaron Allen. “This is a conservative case, in our view.” 

Of the roughly 22 million restaurants worldwide, about 2.2 million are expected to shutter operations. Global restaurant traffic data via OpenTable shows little improvement in late June.

We noted, on Sunday, June 14, after months of slow improvement, restaurant traffic suddenly plunged, sliding from a -66.5% y/y decline as of June 13 to -78.8% globally. The plunge was mostly due to a sharp drop in U.S. restaurant diners, which plunged by 13% – from -65% to -78% – the biggest one day drop since the start of the shutdown in the U.S., and the second biggest one day drop on record.

Another sharp drop in U.S. restaurant traffic was noticed on Monday, June 22, due mostly because of the emergence of the second virus wave in some states, Bloomberg reports:

Cases are surging in Texas, Florida, Arizona, and in California, which on Tuesday broke its record for new cases for the fourth day in the past week. Even in New Jersey, where numbers have been falling, Governor Phil Murphy warned that the transmission rate is “beginning to creep up.”

Coronavirus cases in the U.S. increased by 35,695 from the same time Monday to 2.33 million, according to data collected by Johns Hopkins University and Bloomberg News. The 1.6% gain was higher than the average daily increase of 1.3% the past seven days. Deaths rose 0.7% to 120,913….

So with the emergence of a second virus wave in the U.S., and, in fact, cases globally are rising, slumping restaurant traffic is going to be disastrous for heavily indebted eateries betting on a reopening.

 Several bankruptcies have already been seen, including Le Pain Quotidien and Garden Fresh Restaurants, the owner of Souplantation and Sweet Tomatoes. Also, TGI Fridays and Cousins Subs have reduced their retail footprint.  

“Weaker businesses are searching for pre-Chapter 11 solutions,” said John Gordon, principal at Pacific Management Consulting Group, an eatery consultancy. “There will be many closings, particularly independents.”

Allen said the emergence of the virus could supercharge the restaurant bankruptcy wave. 

OpenTable recently warned that 25% of all U.S. restaurants would never reopen. 

For restaurants with the most robust balance sheets – some are finding new ways to survive, from offering substantial discounts to outside seating to curbside pickup to selling groceries. The staff has been reduced to skeleton size, and menus have been significantly trimmed. 

The survival of the fittest has transformed big chains and small restaurants’ business models to now offer selling groceries. Panera Bread and Tijuana Flats, for example, are now offering meat by the pound, milk, and veggies to customers. 

“We can almost live in between this space between meal kits and online grocery delivery,” New York-based chain Just Salad’s CEO Nick Kenner said. He estimates groceries could be a quarter of sales this year. 

Pacific Management’s Gordon said a recovery in restaurants could be seen in 2022. 

“On the whole, most quick-service restaurant brands are in fair shape, while some fast-casual and casual dining brands are still struggling,” he said. “Fine dining brands need business travel to resume before they see traffic recovery.”

With 15.6 million workers employed in the US restaraunt industry, and tens of millions worldwide, the current state of the restaraunt industry does not suggest a V-shaped economic recovery narrative for this year. 

Authored by Benjamin  Wilson via SaraACarter.com,

Lawmakers in the Senate Intelligence Committee are moving forward with a request that would order the Defense Department and U.S. Intelligence agencies to create a public, unclassified, collection of all information and data on “unidentified aerial phenomenon,” also known as unidentified flying objects, UFOs.

According to The NY Post, Senators recognized the existence of a “Unidentified Aerial Phenomenon Task Force” and the need for a comprehensive analysis of unidentified flying objects.

“In his report attached to the 2020-2021 Senate Intelligence Authorization Act, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, acting chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee, instructs the director of national intelligence, the secretary of defense and other agency heads to compile data on ‘unidentified aerial phenomenon,’” according to The Post.

Rubio and his committee expressed concern about not having a concentrated analysis of these objects — especially since it could pose a national security threat. The lawmakers agreed the findings should be public.

“The Committee understands that the relevant intelligence may be sensitive; nevertheless, the Committee finds that the information sharing and coordination across the Intelligence Community has been inconsistent, and this issue has lacked attention from senior leaders,” the report reads.

According to Politico, if passed, the Intelligence Agencies would have 180 days to craft a report for the director of national intelligence and the secretary of defense.

This decision follows the Pentagon releasing videos of these objects two months ago.

As previously reported on this news site, The Pentagon released three unclassified videos showing the U.S. Navy’s encounters with “unidentified aerial phenomena” on April 27.

“The U.S. Navy previously acknowledged that these videos circulating in the public domain were indeed Navy videos. After a thorough review, the department has determined that the authorized release of these unclassified videos does not reveal any sensitive capabilities or systems, and does not impinge on any subsequent investigations of military air space incursions by unidentified aerial phenomena,” DOD said in a statement.

The provision passed today will move to the Senate for a vote and potentially lead to greater public knowledge on UFOs.

Two weeks ago, in the immediate aftermath of renewed fears that various sunbelt states are seeing growing coronavirus infections, we showed that restaurant booking as measured by Opentable seated diners posted its biggest daily drop on its path to gradual recovery since the lockdowns were imposed in March.

Since then there was a modest stabilization in the trend, until another sharp drop took place on Monday amid new concerns of rising cases in states such as Texas, Arizona, Florida and California.

That said, two one-day drops in the closely watched restaurant index hardly is confirmation that the economy is starting to shutdown again. While that may be true, according to JPMorgan’s tracker of spending on the bank’s own debit and credit card, the bank said today that it can now detect a relative slowdown in spending growth in recent weeks in states where the virus has begun to spread again, even if differences across states are fairly subtle so far. In some states like New York and New Jersey where new virus cases are flat or falling, JPM’s spending tracker has risen by more than 10%-pts over the last two weeks through June 21. However, in states like Arizona, Texas, Oklahoma, and South Carolina, where the virus is spreading rapidly, the tracker is up by less than 4%-pts. Still, total spending has been increasing even in these
places thus far.

JPM has also found that spending patterns from a few weeks ago have some power in predicting where the virus has spread since then. Looking across categories of card spending, the bank has found that the level of spending in restaurants three weeks ago was the strongest predictor of the rise in new virus cases over the subsequent three weeks, echoing the results last week using OpenTable data. “Card-present” restaurant spending (meaning in-person, rather than online, spending) is particularly predictive. Interestingly, higher spending in supermarkets predicts slower spread of the virus, hinting that high levels of supermarket spending are indicative of more careful social distancing in a state. For example, as of three weeks ago, supermarket spending was up 20% or more from last year’s levels in New York and New Jersey, while it was up less than 10% in Texas and Arizona.

Elsewhere in the data, JPM notes that recent rebounds in spending in states like New York have been concentrated among  Millennial and Gen Z cardholders and in card-present spending, suggesting that younger generations are leading the way in returning to normal offline life.

After three months of record gains, which saw an increase of $3 trillion to $7.2 trillion, the Fed’s balance sheet has posted its second consecutive weekly decline since the start of the corona crisis according to the latest H.4.1 statement.

While not nearly as large as last week’s decline which was the largest since May 2009, the $12 billion weekly decline to $7.082 trillion was certainly notable in a time when virtually every asset class now is driven by the rise and fall of the Fed’s balance sheet.

The drop, however, was not due to a reversal or even slowdown in QE which continues almost every single day, with the Fed adding over $52 billion in Treasurys and MBS in the 7 days ended June 24, but due to a second consecutive decline in liquidity swap, which shrank by $77.5 billion to $275 billion, after a $92 billion decline in the week prior. The amount of outstanding repo agreements also declined for a second consecutive week by a modest $8.9 billion.

The total amount outstanding in the swap lines, designed to ease a surge in demand for U.S. currency in the participating banks’ jurisdictions during the early weeks of the crisis, was the lowest since early April.

Coupled with other indications of slackening demand for the Fed’s bevy of emergency liquidity facilities, the reduction in currency swap line usage is for many analysts a sign that global financial markets are returning to near-normal after being upended by the coronavirus outbreak in February and March. “We expect a more rapid decline over the coming months as the majority of the swaps will roll off,” Citigroup economists wrote in a note last Friday.

The flipside is that it also means that the system is once again seeing a shrinkage in the circulation of the world’s reserve currency, an explicit tightening in financial condition, and the adverse global impact of any macroshock will be substantially greater if and when one hits in the coming weeks.

Meanwhile, with the S&P500 closely tracking the Fed’s balance sheet in the past three months, which has served as the primary factor behind the rebound in the market, the latest weekly drop coincides with the period of heightened volatility in the past three  weeks.

The shrinkage comes at a time when the Fed’s monthly liquidity injection has been tapered to approximately $120 billion, which suggests that while the balance sheet is likely to resume growing in the next week, it will be at a more gradual pace.

It also means that for the stock market to surge from this point on – since the market is now fully disconnected from fundamentals and is simply a derivative of endogenous liquidity and fund flow – Powell will need to find another justification to expand the Fed’s QE aggressively. Something like a second wave of the coronavirus pandemic…

Finally, those keeping track of how much corporate bonds the Fed has bought, the latest total for the Fed’s Corporate Credit Facilities LLC which includes purchases of both ETFs and corporate bonds, the Fed disclosed that as of June 25, there was $8.3 billion in book value of holdings (the Fed does not break out how many actual bonds it has bought vs ETFs), and increase of $1.7 billion from the $6.6 billion a week prior. Which means that the Fed is now buying around $350MM in corporate bonds and/or ETFs every single day.

By Andrew Corselli of Railway Age,

Total carloads for this week were 201,823 carloads, down 21.8% compared with the same week in 2019, while U.S. weekly intermodal volume was 255,455 containers and trailers, down 4.4% compared to 2019.

None of the 10 carload commodity groups posted an increase compared with the same week in 2019. Commodity groups that posted decreases compared with the same week in 2019 included commodities such as coal, down 26,340 carloads, to 52,392; metallic ores and metals, down 8,176 carloads, to 14,459; and nonmetallic minerals, down 6,839 carloads, to 29,478.

For the first 25 weeks of 2020, U.S. railroads reported cumulative volume of 5,306,511 carloads, down 15.7% from the same point last year; and 5,933,616 intermodal units, down 10.8% from last year. Total combined U.S. traffic for the first 25 weeks of 2020 was 11,240,127 carloads and intermodal units, a decrease of 13.2% compared to last year.

North American rail volume for the week ended June 20, 2020, on 12 reporting U.S., Canadian and Mexican railroads totaled 294,794 carloads, down 19.3% compared with the same week last year, and 334,884 intermodal units, down 6% compared with last year. Total combined weekly rail traffic in North America was 629,678 carloads and intermodal units, down 12.7%. North American rail volume for the first 25 weeks of 2020 was 15,545,401 carloads and intermodal units, down 11.9% compared with 2019.

Canadian railroads reported 72,171 carloads for the week, down 14.9%, and 64,537 intermodal units, down 7.7% compared with the same week in 2019. For the first 25 weeks of 2020, Canadian railroads reported cumulative rail traffic volume of 3,465,280 carloads, containers and trailers, down 8%.

Mexican railroads reported 20,800 carloads for the week, down 7% compared with the same week last year, and 14,892 intermodal units, down 21.5%. Cumulative volume on Mexican railroads for the first 25 weeks of 2020 was 839,994 carloads and intermodal containers and trailers, down 10.2% from the same point last year.

Well, it’s that time of year when grain prices can have a quick reaction to weather forecasts and or trade data. 

Chicago corn futures dipped 2% on Thursday morning after favorable crop weather in the Midwest supported the view of a big harvest this year. Disappointing weekly U.S. exports also weighed down prices. 

Concerns about a second coronavirus wave worldwide have led to a slump in corn futures in the last several weeks. 

Wet weather and moderate heat across the Midwest have eased fears among grain traders about crop stress after a recent dry streak. 

“With a bumper 400 million tonnes of U.S. corn crop coming our way, it is hard to build a bullish argument for corn,” Ole Houe, director of advisory services at agriculture brokerage IKON Commodities in Sydney, told Reuters. 

Uncertainty over Sino-US relations has led to concerns about weak Chinese purchases of U.S. farm goods, including corn and soybeans. 

If readers recall, we used vessel tracking software to determine a “rush hour traffic” of bulk carriers carrying soybean were flowing from Latin America to Asia/China – while very little activity was seen in North Amerca. 

A US-China phase on tracker chart via the Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE) shows China’s monthly purchases of U.S. goods covered by the phase one deal is still way below commitments agreed upon in early 2020.

Iowa Soybean Association president Tim Bardole told NBC News that President Trump’s signing of the phase one trade deal had been a disappointment, and China’s commitments as per the trade deal will likely not be met. 

“At this point, it hasn’t done near what we were hoping would happen with it,” Bardole said. “At this point, we’re kind of running out of time for it to get close to the numbers we might have hoped.”

Bardole had discussions with the House Ways and Means Committee last Wednesday, U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer told him that China is expected to satisfy trade deal purchase agreements – though as we’ve noted, from day one, the commitments were unrealistic targets.