Carter Page Says FBI’s SpyGate Is “Just The Tip Of The Iceberg”, Hints At Future Legal Action

Carter Page Says FBI’s SpyGate Is “Just The Tip Of The Iceberg”, Hints At Future Legal Action

Authored by Sara Carter via SaraACarter.com,

Was President Donald Trump’s short term campaign foreign policy volunteer Carter Page set up by an FBI informant or the informant’s handler at the FBI?

On the The Sara Carter Show, Page discussed the recent revelations in Department of Justice’s Inspector General Michael Horowitz’s report and his interview in The Federalist where questions surfaced regarding his first meeting with Stefan Halper, one of the FBI’s spies in the Trump campaign.

Questions Linger

Questions still loom regarding Halper’s and his FBI handler. It appears that Horowitz’s report raises more answers than questions, said Page, who was not given the opportunity to review the report or discuss his circumstances with Horowitz. Page, who was an officer in the Navy and graduate from Annapolis Naval Academy, assisted intelligence and law enforcement, said all he ever wanted to was “to help his country.”

Unfortunately, Page became the target of some of very corrupted officials within the agencies he had assisted in the past. They did this to target President Donald Trump.

Based on information Page revealed to both The Federalist and The Sara Carter Show it appears that either Halper, or his FBI handler, didn’t tell the truth to Horowitz’s investigators about the circumstances surrounding Halper’s first meeting with Page.

Page told this reporter that the origination of his meeting with Halper must be investigated by Attorney General William Barr’s appointed prosecutor John Durham. Page would not tell this reporter whether or not he’s already been interviewed by Durham but said he has always stressed that he would “cooperate fully” with any investigation.

“The FBI and CIA definitely made some very serious very egregious mistakes, but, you know one of the primary drivers of this was the Democratic National Committee and their operatives,” said Page, referring to the DCN and Hillary Clinton campaign financing the debunked dossier through the private research firm Fusion GPS.

Fusion GPS hired former British spy Christopher Steele to compile the now debunked dossier, which was the main source for leaking false information on Trump and Page to the media. The dossier’s information came from former Russian spies tied to Steele and suggested that Page was an asset of the Russian government, which was patently false.

“I’ve been very cautious,” said Page, regarding his concern over Halper’s contact with him.

“I’ve been very meticulous, as you have been meticulous, Sara in your reporting. I wanna know for sure. I don’t point fingers at people until there is really some very solid evidence and it’s been firmly established that these things have actually happened.”

“Tip of the Iceberg” 

Page, who has received numerous death threats since stories began leaking about him in 2016, told this reporter what the public knows is only “the tip of the iceberg.”

Page said he is “encouraged and appreciative that last month Inspector General Horowitz and his team started uncovering this, but there’s so much more and, to me, these life or death situations that the DNC disinformation campaign created for myself and so many other Trump supporters and volunteers on the Trump team that is a huge issue and I think some of the important revelations you’ve talked about and just mentioned are really the tip of the iceberg.”

Moreover, Horowitz discovered in the course of his investigation that FBI attorney Kevin Clinesmith altered and omitted extensive information on Page when he submitted the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act warrant to the secret court in order to spy on Page. The information Clinesmith omitted was that Page had been cleared by the CIA and that he had been assisting the CIA with information on Russians.

“You know, again, I had worked and supported the CIA and FBI for many years and so you know I had a long series of meetings about ten plus hours in March of 2017, just a couple months after the election,” said Page, regarding his meetings with Clinesmith in 2017.

Clinesmith, along with other FBI agents, were well aware at the time that Page was being defamed by the media and that the disinformation being spread through main stream outlets was false.

Interview with The Federalist

During his interview with The Federalist, which listed out the FBI’s 17 significant inaccuracies or omissions in the secret federal surveillance applications, noted that the agents interviewed by the Inspector General reiterated that they launched the July, 31, 2016 Crossfire Hurricane probe and used Halper because of pure coincidences.

What? Really, they expect the public to buy this unbelievable explanation, he stated with regard to the knew information that was inaccurate in the IG report.

Let me explain, Halper’s handler told the IG that it was “serendipitous” that Halper, referred to in the IG report as Source 2, “had contacts with with three of their four subjects, including Carter Page.”

The FBI agents told Horowitz’s team that “couldn’t believe [their] luck.” Halper’s handler said it was during that time that he learned that his source, Halper, also knew Michael Flynn and Paul Manafort. The FBI source also asked Halper to target George Papadopolous and Sam Clovis, a senior campaign aide at the time.

“I hope we start getting some honest answers sometime soon,” he told me during the podcast. “We’ve got some honest answers in the Inspector General report, but it’s very incomplete and there are many inaccuracies in there.”

As for Page’s future and the next steps in his ongoing lawsuits to seek justice against some of the most powerful bureaucracies in the country:

I’m definitely taking some important actions and I’ve got a great team of great legal experts who are helping me on that and I’ve been literally working round the clock with our team over the last several days and weeks and last couple of months,” said Page.

“I think as you correctly alluded to I’ll have more to say on that real soon so stay tuned.”


Tyler Durden

Sun, 01/12/2020 – 13:30

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2ta5AZj Tyler Durden

Facebook Glitch Reveals Greta Thunburg’s Father Posting As Teenage Climate Activist

Facebook Glitch Reveals Greta Thunburg’s Father Posting As Teenage Climate Activist

A Thursday evening software update at Facebook accidentally allowed anyone to view exactly who is posting under the accounts of public figures, businesses and other entities, according to Wired.

The result? For starters, some 3 million followers of teenage climate activist Greta Thunberg have been reading posts made by her father, Svante Thunberg, and a climate activist in India who serves as a delegate at the UN’s Climate Change organization, Adarsh Prathap. Thunberg, Inc. claims Greta is still the one writing the content.

Greta, Inc. explained this in a Saturday Facebook post purporting to be the young climate activist.

“Some people have been asking who manages this page. First of all, since last spring I only use Facebook to repost what I write on my Twitter and Instagram accounts,” reads the post, in which ‘she’ says she tried Facebook “early on,” but didn’t like it, so she uses “my father Svantes account to repost content.”

“The rest that is shared on Facebook is reposted from Twitter and Instagram by the guy who founded the Greta Thunberg Facebook page long before I knew it existed. His name is Adarsh Prathap and he lives in India. Since a lot of people thought it was my official page in the beginning I asked if I could co-manage it and he said yes.

Greta claims to have written all the content posted by her father and Prathap.

In other words, “of course it’s not me silly – you should have known I just ‘co-manage’ the fan page.”

Except – by all outward appearances it appeared to be her page alone.

Facebook’s ‘page transparency’ shows Greta as the confirmed owner – with the only clue suggesting she might have help being a page manager located in India.

According to Facebook, the flaw was quickly fixed – but not before the people behind famous accounts were revealed and shared on public forums such as 4chan.

“We quickly fixed an issue where someone could see who edited or published a post on behalf of a Page when looking at its edit history,” said the company in a statement. “We are grateful to the security researcher who alerted us to this issue.”

Facebook says the bug was the result of a code update that it pushed Thursday evening. It’s not something most people would have encountered on their own, since it took navigating to a Page, viewing an edit history, and realizing that there shouldn’t be a name and profile picture assigned to edits to exploit it. Still, despite the Friday morning fix, screenshots circulated on 4chan, Imgur, and social media appearing to show the accounts behind the official Facebook Pages of the pseudonymous artist Banksy, Russian president Vladimir Putin, former US secretary of state Hillary Clinton, Canadian prime minister Justin Trudeau, the hacking collective Anonymous, climate activist Greta Thunberg, and rapper Snoop Dogg, among others.

Facebook points out that no information beyond a name and public profile link were available, but that information isn’t supposed to appear in the edit history at all. And for people, say, running anti-regime Pages under a repressive government, making even that much information public is plenty alarming. –Wired

“People who run sensitive Pages from their own Facebook should now consider that their identity may be known,” said Lukasz Olejnik independent privacy adviser and Oxford University Center for Technology and Global Affairs. “While mistakes happen, this one is unexpected.


Tyler Durden

Sun, 01/12/2020 – 13:05

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2NjjNtA Tyler Durden

The Blue-State Exodus Gains Momentum

The Blue-State Exodus Gains Momentum

Authored by Merrill Matthews, op-ed via TheHill.com,

Nine years ago I published a piece that asserted, “Voters around the country are concluding it’s better to be red than dead,” applying almost the exact opposite meaning to an old phrase referring to communism. New Census Bureau figures appear to confirm my prediction — mostly.

My point was that many voters were, and are, increasingly fed up with the high taxes, heavy regulations and increasing social wokeness that have come to characterize most blue states — i.e., those dominated by liberal politicians and policies.

I argued that voters wanting to live in a business-friendly, fiscally responsible state that minimizes its tax burden would either vote out the liberals destroying their state’s economy or flee to a red state. The latest Census Bureau report highlights the red-state shift.

According to an Election Data Services analysis of the Census Bureau report, “The population projections point toward a ten [congressional] seat change over 17 states across the nation by year 2020.”

Seven states are projected to gain one or more congressional seats after the 2020 election; 10 states are projected lose one seat.

The red-state leader is Texas, with a projected pickup of three congressional seats following the 2020 census — and that after gaining four congressional seats after the 2010 election. Florida will pick up two seats, and Arizona, Colorado, Montana, North Carolina and Oregon will each gain one, according to the analysis.

All 10 losing states — Alabama, California, Illinois, Michigan, Minnesota, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island and West Virginia — lose only one seat.

Of the seven states gaining seats, five voted for Donald Trump in the 2016 presidential election. Of the 10 states losing seats, five voted for Trump and five for Hillary Clinton

But two of those five losing states that voted for Trump — Michigan and Pennsylvania — surprised most analysts since they have been blue-leaners for several years. And West Virginia is losing population in part because of a struggling state economy that has been so dependent on coal.

Arguably, even some of the blue-state gainers may support my general point.

If you are blue-leaning Californian who wants to escape the Golden State’s drift into madness but stay on the left coast, Oregon might be a reasonable alternative.

Ditto for Colorado, which has turned from red to bluish over the last decade or so as Californians increasingly head for the hills, so to speak.

But that trend also highlights a problem: Some of the people fleeing destructive blue-state taxes and regulations appear to drag their pro-big-government philosophy with them — apparently oblivious to the fact that those policies destroyed the state they are trying to escape. 

One can even see that dynamic occurring in Texas. For a decade or so, liberals have been predicting (not to mention hoping) that Texas’s growing Hispanic population would turn the state from deep red to purple and perhaps even blue.

But there is another factor: Texas has become one of the primary destinations for disaffected Californians, as more and more California businesses have concluded it’s time to go where they will be appreciated.

In addition, many California families have decided to migrate to Texas simply to find more affordable housing, lower taxes and streets that aren’t rife with homeless people, feces and used drug paraphernalia. And Texas even has a 367-mile-long coast!

But we cannot overstate the significance of the Census Bureau’s top-line finding: Texas will gain two or three congressional seats after 2020, while California will likely lose one.

That’s a big deal for California, which has never lost a congressional seat. It is a tacit repudiation of California’s over-the-top taxes and policies. Some of the other blue states, such as New York and Illinois, have been bleeding people for years. 

Several years ago, I interviewed the editor of Chief Executive magazine, which conducts an annual CEO survey of the best and worst states to do business. The editor told me the survey had two constants: Texas always comes in as the best state to do business, and California always comes in dead last. Oh, and Florida, which is projected to gain two seats, usually comes in second place.

It was only a matter of time before both businesses and individuals began voting with their feet. And that time has apparently come.

More importantly, the blue-state exodus is only a snapshot of what dissatisfaction will emerge if those blue-state policies take over the White House.


Tyler Durden

Sun, 01/12/2020 – 12:40

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2QMSElh Tyler Durden

Philippines Taal Volcano Spews Mega Ash Cloud – Evacuations Underway, Flights Canceled 

Philippines Taal Volcano Spews Mega Ash Cloud – Evacuations Underway, Flights Canceled 

The Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS) has raised the alert level on Sunday after a volcano south of the Philippine capital of Manila erupted, prompting evacuations and canceled flights, reported Reuters.

PHIVOLCS raised the alert level at Taal Volcano from Alert Level 1 to Alert Level 2 at 2:30 p.m. Sunday – then several hours later, raised the alert level to Level 3, indicating “magmatic unrest” that could destabilize the region in the coming days. The highest level is 5, and that is when a magmatic eruption is underway.

“Taal Volcano Main Crater has escalated its eruptive activity, generating an eruption plume 1 km [3,280 feet] high accompanied by volcanic tremor and felt earthquakes in Volcano Island and barangays of Agoncillo, Batanga. Ashfall is currently being showered on the southwest sector of Taal,” PHIVOLCS said in a statement.

The country’s National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) has already started to evacuate communities situated around the volcano. 

The eruption has already triggered a massive plume of volcano ash that is upwards of a mile high.

NDRRMC said 8,000 residents had been asked to evacuate on a Level 3. The number could significantly increase if the alert level is elevated to 4 or 5. 

All flights at Ninoy Aquino International Airport have been suspended due to the volcano ash that lingers in the atmosphere. 

Renato Soldium, PHIVOLCS officer-in-charge, told CNN Philippines that “magma is intruding from below. If eventually, this will continue to move up, then there can be a magmatic eruption which is more dangerous.” 

Watch live coverage of the volcano via ABS-CBN News: 

 


Tyler Durden

Sun, 01/12/2020 – 12:15

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2NzduTd Tyler Durden

Mind The (Reality) Gap

Mind The (Reality) Gap

Authored by Sven Henrich via NorthmanTrader.com,

Amid all the ferocious market rallying there’s a gap building and nobody seems to notice, and nobody seems to care. I say: Mind the gap.

The banking index, much like the rest of the market, has been rallying furiously ever since the Fed began expanding its balance sheet on an accelerated pace since October. $BKX jumped on the liquidity train and broke above its previously well contained 2018-2019 range, except it didn’t make new all time highs yet.

A chart I’ve been highlighting again in my latest weekend update keeps highlighting a glaring gap:

What was a comfortable relationship between the 10 year ($TNX) and the banking index ($BKX) broke down in early 2019 and remains broken to this day.

Despite both yields and the banking index improving in recent months the gap remains and signals something profoundly afoot:

The yield gap remains with $TNX contained in a rising channel not confirming a resurgence of economic growth and strength the larger markets appears to want to price in.

But note something else here. While the main indices, $DJIA, $SPX and $NDX went on to make new all time highs here in early 2020, the $BKX did not. It never made new highs versus 2018 and so far it hasn’t made new highs versus 2019.

Incidentally the same story applies to small caps with heavy exposure to financials:

So it’s not just $BKX dragging its heels.

How big is the gap in performance? It’s quite dramatic actually.

What if I told you $BKX has gone nowhere during the past month while $NDX has tagged on another 7%+ in performance?

So I have some questions: Why is the banking sector not running wild with all this artificial liquidity? Why are yields not confirming the economic growth the larger market price action wants you to believe is just around the corner? If the banking index and small caps can’t make new highs with a $400B+ balance sheet expansion by the Fed what’s that say about the underlying true strength of the economy? What does the banking sector know that the main indices don’t know? Why’s nobody talking about it?

So many questions, so few answers as of yet. But perhaps the questions themselves send a message: Mind the gap.

Because maybe, just maybe, it’s not different this time:

*  *  *

For the latest public analysis please visit NorthmanTrader. To subscribe to our market products please visit Services.


Tyler Durden

Sun, 01/12/2020 – 11:46

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2NkxKHP Tyler Durden

Marianne Williamson Withdraws from the Presidential Race

The most interesting thing about Marianne Williamson’s presidential campaign may be that it did about as well as you’d ordinarily expect a Marianne Williamson campaign to do. The self-help writer and spiritual leader, who suspended her New Age quest for the Democratic nomination on Friday, made a splash in the press and the meme factories by sounding so different from the other candidates. But her poll numbers never climbed above the low single digits, and now she has withdrawn before the voting begins. Apparently, the Oprah constituency isn’t enough to win a major party’s presidential nod this year. Maybe Oprah herself could do it, but not a regular Oprah guest.

That should not be surprising. Major political parties do not usually hand their national tickets to celebrity candidates who don’t have any elected experience. But one of them did just that last time around, and the guy they picked then got elected president. And that experience has thrust some traumatized analysts into a state of epistemic nihilism, as though they can’t entirely rule out the possibility that the Democrats will nominate an AI and the Republicans will nominate Bernie Sanders.

Relax, folks. We’re just few weeks from the Iowa caucuses now, and the two leading contenders for the Democratic nomination are exactly what standard political wisdom would lead you to expect: (a) the guy who was vice president the last time the party held the White House, and (b) the guy who finished second in the last nomination contest. And the candidate with the best shot at coming from behind to beat them is a well-known senator who’s spent years building a constituency.

Granted, one of those two frontrunners is a self-proclaimed socialist who isn’t technically a member of the party; and yes, there’s also a boy mayor from the Midwest in the mix. But that’s not very far beyond the standard levels of political weirdness. It certainly isn’t as strange as a Marianne Williamson presidency. That’ll have to wait another four years.

from Latest – Reason.com https://ift.tt/2FUko17
via IFTTT

“Do Not Kill Your Protesters” – Trump Warns Iran As Crackdown On Growing Protests Begins

“Do Not Kill Your Protesters” – Trump Warns Iran As Crackdown On Growing Protests Begins

Protests in Iran have spread for a second consecutive day after student-led demonstrations and clashes with police at a Tehran university Saturday saw crowds chanting “death to liars!” and “Khamenei] resign, resign!” They are demanding that Iran’s leaders, including Ayatollah Khamenei step down over their initially concealing the truth about the accidental Ukrainian airline shoot down, which killed all 176 people on board. 

The initial hundreds or possibly thousands strong gatherings in Tehran spread to other cities amid a broad heightened security response which the day prior saw authorities briefly detain the British ambassador, reports Reuters; however, the size still pales in comparison to the tens of thousands which took to the streets in November, and more recently the some two million which took to the streets in support of slain IRGC Quds chief Qasem Soleimani during his funeral

Riot police have been deployed to the University of Tehran campus after fresh protests there, with reports of tear gas and after the previous day opposition social media accounts advanced unconfirmed claims that live fire was being used. On this point, President Trump had an early Sunday message for the Islamic Republic’s leaders and security forces:

But it also appears that some counter-protests have begun in Tehran, as The Guardian notes that “Pro-regime protesters also gathered outside the UK embassy calling for its closure after the British ambassador to Iran was briefly detained on Saturday evening after leaving the site of a demonstration.”

Upon the very start of the new protests over the airline downing, Trump on Saturday issued a series of tweets in English and Farsi voicing support for what was as that moment a mere hundreds in the streets, crowds which appear to have since grown

“To the brave, long-suffering people of Iran: I’ve stood with you since the beginning of my Presidency, and my Administration will continue to stand with you,” he tweeted. “There can not be another massacre of peaceful protesters, nor an internet shutdown. The world is watching.”

Given we appear possibly set for a November repeat, which saw hundreds killed at the hands of Iranian security according to most international reports and human rights organizations (though the US claimed at the time the dubious number of up to 1,000), local security forces aren’t taking any chances. 

Reports Bloomberg:

Iranian security forces stepped up patrols in Tehran, seeking to quell further anti-government protests after the regime admitted downing a Ukrainian passenger jet, triggering anger on the streets and global outrage.

Videos on social media, which couldn’t immediately be verified by Bloomberg, showed motorcycle-mounted security forces in green camouflage and anti-riot body armor stationed on the city’s Valiasr square on Sunday morning. There was also a heavy police presence outside Tehran university.

Meanwhile, in an interview with CBS’ Face the Nation, Defense Secretary Mark Esper said he doesn’t expect more retaliatory missile strikes out of Iran. 

The US State Department is poised to make much of these initial weekend student protests, though it’s as yet unclear if they will gain in momentum. 

“You can see the Iranian people are standing up and asserting their rights, their aspirations for a better government – a different regime,” he said of the weekend protests, also echoing prior similar statements from Pompeo.

Should the momentum of the protests carry into this coming week, Iran’s leadership will likely brace for the worst given Trump is publicly backing anti-regime demonstrations, and the proverbial gloves of the security forces will be coming off. 


Tyler Durden

Sun, 01/12/2020 – 11:15

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2NjgqCZ Tyler Durden

Marianne Williamson Withdraws from the Presidential Race

The most interesting thing about Marianne Williamson’s presidential campaign may be that it did about as well as you’d ordinarily expect a Marianne Williamson campaign to do. The self-help writer and spiritual leader, who suspended her New Age quest for the Democratic nomination on Friday, made a splash in the press and the meme factories by sounding so different from the other candidates. But her poll numbers never climbed above the low single digits, and now she has withdrawn before the voting begins. Apparently, the Oprah constituency isn’t enough to win a major party’s presidential nod this year. Maybe Oprah herself could do it, but not a mere Oprah guest.

That should not be surprising. Major political parties do not usually hand their national tickets to celebrity candidates who don’t have any elected experience. But one of them did just that last time around, and the guy they picked then got elected president. And that experience has thrust some traumatized analysts into a state of epistemic nihilism, as though they can’t entirely rule out the possibility that the Democrats will nominate an AI and the Republicans will nominate Bernie Sanders.

Relax, folks. We’re just few weeks from the Iowa caucuses now, and the two leading contenders for the Democratic nomination are exactly what standard political wisdom would lead you to expect: (a) the guy who was vice president the last time the party held the White House, and (b) the guy who finished second in the last nomination contest. And the candidate with the best shot at coming from behind to beat them is a well-known senator who’s spent years building a constituency.

Granted, one of those two frontrunners is a self-proclaimed socialist who isn’t technically a member of the party; and yes, there’s also a boy mayor from the Midwest in the mix. But that’s not very far beyond the standard levels of political weirdness. It certainly isn’t as strange as a Marianne Williamson presidency. That’ll have to wait another four years.

from Latest – Reason.com https://ift.tt/2FUko17
via IFTTT

“This Is Nuts” – Why One Asset Manager Reduced Risk On Friday

“This Is Nuts” – Why One Asset Manager Reduced Risk On Friday

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

Market Review & Update

When you sit down with your portfolio management team, and the first comment made is “this is nuts,” it’s probably time to think about your overall portfolio risk. On Friday, that was how the investment committee both started and ended – “this is nuts.” 

We have been discussing the overbought, extended, and complacent market over the last couple of weeks, but on Friday, I tweeted out a couple of charts that illustrated the excess. 

The first chart was comparing the Nasdaq to the S&P 500 index. Both are banded by 2-standard deviations bands of the 200-WEEK moving average. there are a couple of things which should jump out immediately:

  1. The near-vertical price acceleration in the markets has been a historical hallmark of late-stage cycle advances, also known as a “melt up” phase.

  2. When markets get more than 2-standard deviations above their long-term moving average, reversions to the mean have tended to follow shortly after that. 

Currently, both of those conditions exist in the chart above. However, if it were only price acceleration, we would just be mildly concerned. However, investor complacency has also reached more extreme levels with PUT/CALL ratio now hitting historically high levels. (The put/call ratio is the ratio of “put options” being bought on the S&P 500 (theoretically to hedge risk) versus the number of “call” options purchased to “lever up” risk.)

Lastly, all of our indicators from momentum to relative strength are all suggesting risk substantially outweighs reward currently. 

While none of this means the market will “crash,” it does suggest the risk/reward ratio is not in favor of the bulls short-term. 

However, we are mindful that in the short-term, the market is currently obsessed with the Fed’s monetary interventions (the topic of this week’s MacroView)which are supportive of the markets currently. However, as my friend and colleague Doug Kass summed noted this week:

“It is growing increasingly clear to me that global stock markets are in the process of making a speculative move (driven by global liquidity) that may even compare to the advances that culminated in the seminal market tops in the Fall of 1987 and in the Spring of 2000.

As today’s trading day comes to a close, it is apparent that, like the 1997 Long Boom paradigm expressed in a column in Wired Magazine during the dot.com bubble –– the current market is similarly viewed as in its own, new liquidity-based paradigm.

No longer is the market hostage to the real economy or sales and profit growth – stuff I have spent four decades analyzing. Instead, liquidity is seen as an overriding influence, actually it has become the sine quo non.

As such, historical valuations become increasingly irrelevant, and price momentum is the lodestar.

He is right. 

Currently, almost every single valuation metric is at historic extremes, yet investors continue to take on increasing levels of risk due to nothing more than “F.O.M.O – Fear Of Missing Out.” 

As Doug goes on to note:

“We live in unusual times – in which central bankers have adopted policy unlike any point in history. Near-zero interest rates around the world have become commonplace and are accepted with little thought given to the adverse consequences. Forgetting history, central bankers seem to have no idea that they have created another monster again – just as they did in 1999.

Meanwhile, corporate profits are lower (year over year), and the rate of global GDP growth remains below the historic trendline – as it takes more and more debt to deliver a unit of production.

The climb in stocks will likely end badly as it is not supported by the fundamental (social, economic, political and geopolitical) backdrop and, increasingly, classical valuation metrics have moved to the highest percentiles in history (enterprise value/EBIT, price to sales, market capitalizations to GDP, etc.)

Yes, “this is nuts,” which is why we took profits out of portfolios on Friday.

3300 To 3500, And Back Again

In July of 2019, we laid out our prognostication the S&P 500 could reach 3300 amid a market melt-up though the end of the year. On Friday, the market touched 3280, which, as they say, is “close enough for Jazz.”

However, with the Federal Reserve having “turned on the liquidity taps,” it is entirely possible the markets could continue their upward momentum towards 3500.

The potential “fly in the ointment” is if the economic, employment, and profit data fail to recover as anticipated. With 2020 earnings estimates already cut markedly heading into the year, further downward revisions will likely begin to weigh on investor sentiment. 

Friday’s employment report was weak and exposed the anomaly caused by the autoworkers strike in the blockbuster November report. CEO and CFO confidence remain very suppressed currently, and if their views don’t start to improve markedly in the short-term we are likely to start seeing much weaker employment reports. 

While the markets could certainly see a push higher in the short-term from the Fed’s ongoing liquidity injections, the gains for 2020 could very well be front-loaded for investors. 

Taking profits and reducing risks now may lead to a short-term underperformance in portfolios, but you will likely appreciate the reduced volatility if, and when, the current optimism fades.


Tyler Durden

Sun, 01/12/2020 – 10:50

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2uCDfuV Tyler Durden

US Expels Saudi Servicemen Over Extremist Ties And Pedophilia In Wake Of Pensacola Shooting

US Expels Saudi Servicemen Over Extremist Ties And Pedophilia In Wake Of Pensacola Shooting

Over a dozen Saudi trainees stationed at US military installations will be expelled from the country following an investigation stemming from a deadly December shooting at a Navy base in Pensacola, Florida, according to CNN.

While the expelled students aren’t accused of aiding 21-year-old Saudi Air Force second lieutenant Mohammed Saeed Alshamrani – who murdered three US sailors and injured 12 after watching mass shooting videos the night before with three friends who filmed the attack the next day – several of them were found to have ties to extremist movements and/or were in possession of child pornography.

About a dozen Saudi trainees at the Pensacola base had been confined to their quarters as the FBI investigated the shooting as a potential terror attack, and the Pentagon initiated a review of all Saudi military trainees in the country, numbering around 850 students.

The Justice Department is expected to conclude that the Pensacola shooting was in fact an act of terrorism, according to a US official.

No co-conspirators have been charged as part of the investigation, and the Saudi government has pledged its full support. –CNN

According to the New York Times, Alshamrani and his three friends visited New York City with his three friends in the days leading up to the shooting – visiting several museums and Rockefeller Center.

His rampage spanned two floors in a classroom, according to Sheriff David Morgan of Escambia Country. Two deputies were injured in the shooting. The Saudi trainee used a locally bought Glock 45 9mm handgun with an extended magazine, and was carrying between four and six more magazines.

In his last message on Twitter confirmed by AFP, Alshamrani wrote that America is a nation of evil.


Tyler Durden

Sun, 01/12/2020 – 10:15

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/36NPza7 Tyler Durden