Kentucky Lawmaker Wants To Give Police the Power to Detain People Who Don’t Answer Their Questions

A Kentucky lawmaker wants to grant police in his state the power to detain a person for two hours if he or she declines to offer up identification or answer an officer’s questions while they’re investigating possible criminal activity. Lawyers? Miranda warnings? Forget about them.

The bill was introduced by state Sen. Stephen Meredith (R–Leitchfield), and civil rights lawyers are warning that it could open a big, nasty, easily abusable, unconstitutional can of worms.

The bill states that the person who is being detained by police in this process is not considered under arrest, which appears to be a mechanism to try to keep a person from demanding a lawyer. It could also get people to incriminate themselves by making them answer police questions or face temporary detention.

While police are obviously empowered to investigate criminal activity, this bill, SB 89, seems designed to give police the power to target individuals for harassment for the sketchiest of reasons. Meredith told the Lexington Herald-Leader that one of the incidents that inspired the bill (which he acknowledges was pushed forward at the urging of local police) was a man lingering outside an apartment complex, which made neighbors nervous. They called the police, but the man refused to answer their questions and left. They found out later that he had outstanding arrest warrants.

But Rebecca DiLoreto, who lobbies for the Kentucky Association of Criminal Defense Lawyers, noted that the police could have tagged this guy for violating the state’s loitering laws, and then they could have used that actual allegation of criminal activity to demand ID and check for warrants.

DiLoreto warns that SB 89’s passage would lead to an environment where police would be able to detain people for up to two hours without having to keep official records because these people aren’t technically arrested. She tells the Herald-Leader:

“The idea that we can detain people because we find them to be suspicious and we think they might commit a crime, that crosses a dangerous line. Now, unfortunately, it has been known to happen. Sometimes it’s in a mostly white community where someone spots a black person walking down the street and they get suspicious and call police.

The ‘crime’ in this case is basically that you’re here and we don’t think, from looking at you, that you should be here. The potential for abuse in that seems obvious.”

It would also most certainly violate people’s Fourth and Fifth Amendment rights.

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In Advisory Opinion, Florida Supreme Court Says State Can Require Ex-Felons To Pay Fines Before Having Their Voting Rights Restored

The Florida Supreme Court issued an advisory opinion last week condoning a state law that prohibits residents with felony convictions from voting if they owe outstanding fines and court fees. Opponents of the law say it undermines a ballot initiative that was slated to restore the voting rights of an estimated 1.4 million Floridians and that it is also unconstitutional.  

Passed by a popular vote in November 2018, Amendment 4 changed the Florida constitution to restore the voting rights of former felons. “Complications emerged almost immediately,” Reason‘s C.J. Ciaramella noted last year. “The language of Amendment 4 said that voting rights would be restored ‘upon completion of all terms of sentence including parole or probation,’ but it did not say whether ‘all terms’ included financial obligations imposed by courts.”

The Republican-led state legislature chose to interpret “all terms of sentence” as including fines, restitution, and court fees associated with the felony conviction. Both chambers of the state legislature enshrined that interpretation in SB 7066, which Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) signed into law on June 28, 2019.  

Almost immediately, civil liberties groups representing impoverished former felons sought an injunction against the state in federal court, claiming that SB 7066 essentially imposed a poll tax in violation of the 24th Amendment. In October 2019, Judge Robert Hinkle of the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of Florida issued a temporary injunction, writing that “each of these plaintiffs have a constitutional right to vote so long as the state’s only reason for denying the vote is failure to pay an amount the plaintiff is genuinely unable to pay.”

“The court’s decision is clear: The right to vote cannot be denied to anyone based on their inability to pay,” said Micah Kubic, executive director of the ACLU of Florida, in a statement. “The state must create a clear and unencumbered process that provides Florida’s returning citizens the ability to vote.”

In August 2019, while the ACLU suit was before Hinkle’s court, Gov. DeSantis sent a letter to the Florida Supreme Court asking that it interpret the constitutionality of SB 7066 under Florida law. The Court issued an advisory opinion on January 16 in which it answered only the question of whether “all terms of sentence” includes “legal financial obligations” (LFOs) imposed by a sentencing court. In its advisory opinion, the Florida Supreme Court says both that LFOs are covered by the amendment’s “terms of sentence language,” and that the amendment’s sponsors made that clear to the Court in 2017 during a hearing to determine whether Amendment 4 could be included on the 2018 ballot: 

In its brief to this Court arguing in support of Amendment 4 being placed on the ballot, Amendment 4’s sponsor, Floridians for a Fair Democracy (the Sponsor), asserted: “Specifically, the drafters intend that individuals with felony convictions, excluding those convicted of murder or a felony sexual offense, will automatically regain their right to vote upon fulfillment of all obligations imposed under their criminal sentence.” [Emphasis used in the opinion]

During the oral argument, counsel for the Sponsor stated—consistent with the Sponsor’s brief—that the operative language in Amendment 4 “means all matters—anything that a judge puts into a sentence.” As noted in the Governor’s letter, that oral argument involved discussion of LFOs—including fines, costs, and restitution—as well as the process for confirming payment of LFOs. Counsel for the Sponsor summed up by reiterating that Amendment 4 was intended to be “a restoration of voting rights under these specific conditions.” It is beyond dispute that the Sponsor expressed the intention that “all terms of sentence” include all LFOs ordered by the sentencing judge.

“It is our opinion,” the Florida Supreme Court concluded, “that the phrase ‘all terms of sentence,’ as used in article VI, section 4 [of the state Constitution], has an ordinary meaning that the voters would have understood to refer not only to durational periods but also to all [legal financial obligations] imposed in conjunction with an adjudication of guilt.”

Reason‘s C.J. Ciaramella, who has covered the restoration effort, reported that felony offenders collectively owe hundreds of millions of dollars in fees and fines. The Florida Court system, which is funded almost entirely by fees and fines, has about “115 different types of fees and surcharges, the second-highest number in the country,” per the Fines & Fees Justice Center.

In an interview with The Appeal, Miami-Dade public defender Carlos Martinez observed that many fees and fines are not listed on sentencing documents. He estimated that 90 percent of those facing outstanding fees and fines in his county were affected by the practice.

On Friday, the Cato Institute and the R Street Institute filed an amicus brief in the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 11th District arguing that “SB 7066, insofar as it excludes people who cannot afford to pay criminal court debt from participation in the democratic process, perhaps permanently, violates the bedrock guarantee of equal rights that every citizen enjoys.”

Cato and R Street, who ask the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 11th District to uphold its injunction, write in their brief that “the unprecedented and growing imposition of fines, fees, court costs, and other financial obligations by state criminal courts has created an enormous class of citizens in debt to the government” and asks that the court “closely
scrutinize any law that purports to condition the ability to vote on payment of court
debt.”

They add that “as a constitutional matter, this case falls squarely within the line of cases
beginning with Griffin v. Illinois, 351 U.S. 12 (1956), which have held that a state denies equal protection of the laws when it conditions a right or benefit solely on the ability to pay.” While Florida argued that felons have no “fundamental right” to vote, Cato and R Street argue that “once the state chooses to re-enfranchise that class, it may not discriminate on the basis of wealth absent a compelling government interest and narrowly tailored means.”

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“I’ll Straight Up Get Armed”: Second Bernie Organizer Loves Gulags And Is “Ready For The F**king Revolution”

“I’ll Straight Up Get Armed”: Second Bernie Organizer Loves Gulags And Is “Ready For The F**king Revolution”

A second Bernie Sanders field organizer has been caught on undercover camera extolling the virtues of gulags – only this one can barely contain himself over arming himself for the “fucking revolution.”

“I’m ready to tear bricks up and start fighting,” says Martin Weissgerber – who deleted his Twitter account Tuesday morning after Project Veritas released their latest hit. “I’ll straight up get armed … I’m ready for the fucking revolution, bro.

Weissgerber also dreams of ‘dissolving the  Senate, House of Representatives and Judicial Branch’ so that ‘somebody like Bernie Sanders and a cabinet of people can make all the decisions for the climate.’

What will help is when we send all the Republicans to the ‘re-education’ camps,” he said, adding “Can you imagine Mitch McConnell [impersonates Mitch looking around a gulag], Lindsey Graham? [mocks with gay wrist]”

The Bernie organizer then tries to sell the undercover journalist on the virtues of gulags, which he says were “founded as re-education camps” – citing the 1933 Soviet Belomorkanal project linking the White Sea to the Baltic – which used gulag prisoners to build, and which Weissgerber claims “people came from America to work on.”

Veritas notes that 25,000 people died building it.

Watch:

More:

According to journalist Andy Ngo, Weissgerber is an aspiring Soundcloud rapper who hates police officers, Israel, women and of course – Trump supporters.


Tyler Durden

Tue, 01/21/2020 – 11:55

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Oil Is The Only Way Back Up For Venezuela

Oil Is The Only Way Back Up For Venezuela

Via OilPrice.com Editorial Dept.,

There’s only one path to rebuilding Venezuela, and it’s paved with oil. For the time being, that path leads nowhere.

The key to controlling everything now lies with the National Assembly, the only body with the power to hand out oil licenses—and Maduro’s recent scheme to retake control of the country’s oil may just have been foiled by more Trump sanctions. 

Venezuela is the 12th largest oil producer in the world and home to the world’s largest oil reserves–all of which is irrelevant as long as it remains in the throes of a deep economic and humanitarian crisis amid runaway corruption, a devalued currency and crippling sanctions by the U.S. and the EU.

Maduro’s attempt to cling to power is relentless, but in his quest this past week to take control of the oil industry, Washington was paying close attention. And now, the rogue president and his government have suffered another major blow, with the US imposing fresh sanctions on seven Maduro acolytes. 

Legislative Crisis

Last week, Venezuela plunged into a major legislative crisis after soldiers and pro-Maduro supporters barred U.S.-backed opposition leader Juan Guaidó and his deputies from entry into congress before quickly naming Luis Parra, a former opposition lawmaker who recently defected to the Maduro camp, as head of a pro-government assembly.

Maduro loyalists and Guaidó’s opposition legislators engaged in a showdown of claims and counterclaims that left neither side with clear control of the assembly.

Diplomats and energy consultants see the latest drama as a move by Maduro to continue to cling to power by gaining control of congress and legitimizing investments by Russian, Chinese and other deep-pocketed investors in a bid to revive the country’s collapsing oil industry. 

Russia, China, India and Turkey have been demanding legal security from Caracas even as they look to tap the country’s cheap energy and mining assets.

Venezuela’s national assembly is the last independent government institution with the sole mandate to legally approve oil-licensing deals, thanks to a law crafted by Maduro’s leftist predecessor, the late Hugo Chávez, which gave state oil monopoly PDVSA (Petróleos de Venezuela) majority financial stakes and mandatory operational control. 

Had the congress takeover been successful, Maduro’s supporters would have been in a position to draft a new law that would confer legal powers to foreign companies to run day-to-day operations for oil projects in the country.

It would have been similar to Mexico’s massive energy reforms (now being undone) that opened up the country to foreign investors and destroyed a state-run monopoly. Under any other circumstances, the West would have been rather excited at this prospect—but not where it concerns Venezuela. 

“This whole operation reflects the extreme necessity of the regime to try and give legitimacy to contracts, especially in the oil sector,” Luis Stefanelli, a former opposition lawmaker who went into exile to escape state persecution, told the WSJ.

Venezuela’s Crude oil production has plunged from 3.2 million barrels/day before President Obama imposed the first sanctions on the country in 2015 to just 700,000 barrels/day currently due to the international sanctions even as the government lacks funds to maintain derelict oil infrastructure.

Meanwhile, the country’s economy has contracted 60%, clearly underlining the importance of oil to the country’s coffers.

Moscow to the Rescue?

Caracas will no doubt be counting on Moscow to come to its rescue– as it has done several times in the past.

Russia has repeatedly expressed unflinching support for Maduro, going as far as providing military support even after Washington prohibited its allies from doing any business with the nation. Washington has in the past accused Moscow of providing assistance to Caracas in the movement of gold and oil, helping to finance, market and ship the commodities in ways that circumvent U.S. sanctions.

Make no mistake about whose side Russia is on in the latest saga: The nation was one of the few nations to brazenly applaud Maduro’s latest antics. But that’s because it wants a return on its investment, in the least.

Maduro remains the de facto head of state thanks to the backing of the armed forces, in addition to the backing of heavyweights like Russia, China and India who salivate at the prospects of exploiting the nation’s vast mineral riches. 

Guaidó, on the other hand, is the legitimate leader of Venezuela’s Congress and also enjoys the backing of the United States; however, his support could be weakening as evidenced by dwindling volumes of followers at his rallies.

And certainly, Maduro and his cohorts are already devising a new workaround to thwart Washington’s efforts.

Jay Park, the CEO of oil and gas explorer Recon Africa, is a Latin America expert who helped Mexico’s Pemex seal its first-ever joint venture deal. He knows the region better than most, and he is an expert at navigating the oil-political nexus. 

In the case of Venezuela, Park told Oilprice.com that it’s difficult to see Maduro leaving anytime soon. 

“He’s survived U.S. sanctions and local opposition, and no one seems willing to take the military step to show him the door,” Park said.

“Even if they did, it would take a number of years for Venezuela’s oil industry to come back.”


Tyler Durden

Tue, 01/21/2020 – 11:35

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Ray Dalio Says “Cash Is Trash”, Investors Should Diversify Portfolio With Gold 

Ray Dalio Says “Cash Is Trash”, Investors Should Diversify Portfolio With Gold 

Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio sat down with CNBC’s Squawk Box at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, on Tuesday.

Dalio said investors should ride the market melt-up but dump cash for a diversified portfolio as central bankers undergo unprecedented money printing.

“Cash is trash,” Dalio said. “Get out of cash. There’s still a lot of money in cash.”

Dalio has claimed before that “cash is trash.”  He said back in 2018 that “if you’re holding cash, you’re going to feel pretty stupid”, cash would go on to be the best-performing asset of the year.

This time he suggests diversifying into gold…

“You have to have balance … and I think you have to have a certain amount of gold in your portfolio,” Dalio said, adding that gold will be a top asset to own in the years ahead as central banks will fail to normalize in the next downturn, which could’ve already started.

And with the market melt-up accelerating at an unprecedented pace, and hitting new all-time highs day after day even as broad S&P valuations are now at nosebleed levels last seen during the dot com bubble — Greg Jensen, the co-CIO of Bridgewater, warned that stocks are at “frothy” levels and predicted gold would soar to $2,000 and higher because the Fed and other central banks would let inflation run hot for a while and “there will no longer be an attempt by any of the developed world’s major central banks to normalize interest rates.”

Gold to $2,000: 

Jensen said gold could rise 30% from its current price of $1,550 and should be considered as “a cornerstone of investors’ portfolios.”

Dalio was asked if the economic downturn he’s been speaking of for the last several years will arrive in 2020 — he said central bankers had kicked the can down the road through aggressive easing.

“If you get a downturn – and there’s a good probability in the next [presidential] term you’ll get a downturn – and you don’t have an effective monetary policy and you have people at each other’s throats, I’m worried about that,” Dalio said.

“I would say there’s a 20% chance every year [of a downturn],” Dalio added.

Dalio said the Federal Reserve is now stimulating the economy, and that’s bad news for the dollar.

“We’re going to have larger deficits which we’re going to print money for,” Dalio said. “At a point in the future, we still are going to think about what’s a storeholder of wealth. Because when you get negative-yielding bonds or something, we are approaching a limit that will be a paradigm shift.”

Dalio and Jensen are some of the first major players in the investment community to stress that the Fed is likely to slash rates to the zero-lower bound, in the attempt, to avoid the next recession. They both indicate that Fed money printing could hurt the dollar, and now is the time to buy gold.


Tyler Durden

Tue, 01/21/2020 – 11:15

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Trump’s Impeachment Trial Will Only Make Us Hate Washington Even More

Today is the day that the impeachment trial of President Donald Trump gets underway. Proceedings start around 1 p.m. in Washington (go here for places to watch) and are expected to last anywhere from a week to a month (Bill Clinton’s trial in 1999 lasted five weeks). In a vote that proceeded along party lines, President Trump has been charged with abuse of power and obstruction of Congress. He is widely expected to be found not guilty by the Senate, in a vote that will also proceed largely, if not completely, along party lines.

Come February, or whenever the pompously self-declared “world’s greatest deliberative body” votes on the matter, we will be right back to where we started, only a little bit more in debt, a little angrier, and a little more behind schedule on nuts-and-bolts things like passing a real budget for the current fiscal year, figuring out how to pay for entitlements, and discerning whether we’re technically at war with various countries.

The impeachment process thus perfectly encapsulates everything that is wrong with the federal government. From start to finish, the impeachment is almost purely partisan and political rather than substantive, and it accomplishes nothing other than driving down even further any form of trust or confidence in the presidency, Congress, or even the Supreme Court (Chief Justice John Roberts will preside over the Senate trial). To be fair, impeachment is designed to be a political, rather than legal, process. It’s not about discovering the truth of what happened, or even fully explaining what happened, as you’d expect in a real trial. As Gerald Ford noted just a few years before becoming president himself after the resignation of Richard Nixon (who was faced with his own impeachment trial), an impeachable offense “is whatever a majority of the House of Representatives considers it to be at a given moment in history.”

It’s only fitting, then, that being found innocent will be an equally partisan exercise. Indeed, that seems especially fitting in an election year in which the incumbent shows some of the worst approval numbers in history and still seems to have an excellent shot at winning a second term.

I’ve documented over the years how far and fast trust and confidence in various parts of the federal government has fallen. In 1964, for instance, 77 percent of Americans agreed that they trusted “the government in Washington always or most of the time.” As of last year, that figure stood at 17 percent. When it comes to the presidency, trust has toppled from 73 percent in 1972 to 45 percent.  For Congress, the drop is even worse, plummeting from 71 percent in 1972 to 38 percent in 2019. Trust in the Supreme Court has followed the same general trend, even if its numbers are better. In 1988, 56 percent had a high degree of trust in the Supreme Court but thirty years later, that figure clocked in at 37 percent.

It’s unlikely that the purely partisan impeachment process will do anything but accelerate those trends. For libertarians, this might on its face seem a blessing, as evacuating trust and confidence in the federal government is surely a precondition for radically reducing its growth and power.

But that’s not how things work. Again and again—and in countries all over the world—declines in trust of government correlate strongly with calls for more government regulation in more parts of our lives. “Individuals in low-trust countries want more government intervention even though they know the government is corrupt,” explain the authors of a 2010 Quarterly Journal of Economics paper. That’s certainly the case in the United States, where the size, scope, and spending of government has vastly increased over exactly the same period in which trust and confidence in the government has cratered. In 2018, I talked with one of the paper’s authors, Andrei Shleifer, a Harvard economist who grew up in the Soviet Union before coming to America. Why do citizens ask a government they don’t believe in to bring order? “They want regulation,” he said. “They want a dictator who will bring back order.”

Counterintuitively, the relative size and spending of government in the United States actually flattened or dipped during periods when trust and confidence in government picked up:

From 1994 to 2001, Pew data show upticks in the number of people who trust the government to mostly do the right thing…. Using inflation-adjusted dollars, the feds spent about $250 billion more in [Bill] Clinton’s last year than in his first, a small increase compared to the spending surges seen under Ronald Reagan and George W. Bush. Viewed as a percentage of GDP, federal spending fell significantly during that period. In 1991, it equaled 21 percent. By 2001, it equaled just 17.5 percent.

There were many reasons for minor increases in trust and confidence in government during the 1990s. The end of the Cold War, the rise of the internet, and continual economic expansion all played important roles (especially the latter). While Washington got shriller—virtually all modern forms of hyper-polarization were present or birthed in the ’90s—it also became less important to more people. Clinton famously acknowledged that “the era of big government is over” even as Congress worked in a bipartisan fashion to change welfare, cut capital gains taxes, and slash defense spending. That sort of rapprochement is unimaginable in the current moment.

You can argue that Trump richly deserves to be the third president to face an impeachment trial, that we should be impeaching all the presidents all the time, or that Trump is actually the victim of a coup. You might even win those arguments. But none of that matters if you really care about restraining the size of government. Come the end of the Senate trial that starts today, Trump will almost certainly still be in office, Democrats and Republicans will hate each other even more, and trust and confidence in Washington will be even lower than it already is.

And the spending of the federal government, what Milton Friedman said was the purest measure of its power, will continue to set new records. All impeachment will have done is add more fuel to the perpetual dumpster fire that is Washington and pushed the calendar back a month or so when it comes to the fiscal reckoning that awaits us in the new decade.

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Svetlana Lokhova: Money Trail Of FBI Spy Will Expose Russia Hoax Origins

Svetlana Lokhova: Money Trail Of FBI Spy Will Expose Russia Hoax Origins

Via SaraACarter.com,

Svetlana Lokhova is suing numerous media outlets, as well as FBI informant Stefan Halper, for defamation and tells The Sara Carter Show that she was used as a target of opportunity by the FBI in an attempt to discredit former National Security Advisor Michael Flynn and target President Donald Trump.

Lokhova, a Russian born British scholar, calls Halper “the dirty trickster.”

She says his past connections to these agencies and the FBI is a ‘big tell’ as to why he was used to used to gather information on the Trump campaign.

“So you have 17 intelligence agencies in the United States with an $80 billion budget you have thousands if not tens of thousands of trained people working for your intelligence services and, yet, they seek out this complete outsider (Halper) right he’s not a trained investigator,” she says, describing Halper as an overweight 74 year old.

“He’s somebody whose known… has a history of being involved in every single scandal for over forty years,” said Lokhova. She says Halper’s money trail is the answer.

Lokhova isn’t the only one.

Finance Committee Chairman Chuck Grassley’s sent a letter last year demanding answers on Halper’s contracts and the Office of Net Assessment. Grassley sent the request in a letter to Department of Defense Acting Secretary Mark Esper, after a Pentagon Inspector General investigation discovered that the office failed to conduct appropriate oversight of the contracts. Grassley urged Esper for the information.

According to Grassley’s office it is currently reviewing information sent from the Pentagon.

“The committee is currently reviewing information received recently from the Pentagon, in response to Grassley’s request,” Taylor Foy, a spokesman for the committee, said in an earlier interview with this news site. Foy confirmed Grassley is continuing to investigate the matter.

According to the DoD Inspector General’s report the Office of Net Assessment (ONA)Contracting Officer’s Representatives (CORs) “did not maintain documentation of the work performed by Professor Halper or any communication that ONA personnel had with Professor Halper; therefore, ONA CORs could not provide sufficient documentation that Professor Halper conducted all of his work in accordance with applicable laws and regulations. We determined that while the ONA CORs established a file to maintain documents, they did not maintain sufficient documentation to comply with all the FAR requirements related to having a complete COR.”

Lokhova tells me at length about the erroneous and inaccurate articles published about her and Flynn. She says it turned her life upside down. She also discusses the toll the lawsuits are taking on her family financially and why she intends to keep on fighting.

Lokhova goes into lengthy details about the malicious targeting operation against her. She says the DOJ must examine Halper’s financial trail that began at the Office of Net Assessment at the Pentagon. This, she says, will expose the Russia Hoax Origins.

Halper was used to spread malicious lies about her in an operation that utilized her brief encounter with Lt. Gen. Michael Flynn at a dinner 2014 at the Cambridge Intelligence Seminar as a way of spreading malicious lies about her, she said.

She has filed numerous lawsuits in the federal court in Alexandria, Virginia, and is seeking more than $25 million in damages from Halper, The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times, The Washington Post and MSNBC.


Tyler Durden

Tue, 01/21/2020 – 10:54

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Vladimir Putin Is Not Reforming the State. He’s Taking Power for Himself.

Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev and his entire cabinet resigned last week in the wake of what The New York Times‘ Andrew Higgins calls “sweeping constitutional changes.” This is the first major alteration of Russia’s constitution since the 1990s, and it would effectively secure President Vladimir Putin’s control of the state.

At a glance, it’s clear that Putin’s intention is to stay in power after 2024, the year he’s constitutionally required to step down after two consecutive terms. But his changes also indicate a methodical plan to conserve power in the executive branch, which sets a dangerous international precedent.

In his address to the Federal Assembly, Russia’s national legislature, Putin proposed to move some key powers from the executive branch to the Duma, Russia’s parliament, and the State Council, an advisory body that handles issues deemed of the highest importance to the state. The most significant constitutional changes would allow the Duma to appoint members to the prime minister’s cabinet and allow the State Council to oversee the appointment of the heads of Russia’s security agencies.

In addition to giving the State Council constitutional status, Putin also intends to limit the supremacy of international law.  The amendments would ban foreign citizenship and foreign residency permits for judicial and legislative officials and require presidential candidates to have had permanent residence in Russia for at least 25 years.

“Is this a coup? Absolutely,” says Elena Lukyanova, law professor at Russia’s Higher School of Economics. She adds that the amendments would allow the Russian government to refuse to fulfill its obligations under international treaties.

But why has Putin taken a more subtle approach to maintaining his autocracy as opposed to simply removing term limits from Russia’s constitution? Maria Snegovaya, post-doctoral fellow at John Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies, compares Putin’s transfer of power to that of Nursultan Nazarbayev, Kazakhstan’s president, in 2019. Nazarbayev had distributed some elements of presidential authority to the Kazakh Senate and Security Council. Nazarbayev then put his daughter in charge of one body and himself in charge of the other.

“Putin’s goal is to avoid concentrating too much power under a singular institution outside of his control, lest it diminish his authority or even threaten his rule,” Snegovaya writes.

Peter Dickinson, editor of Atlantic Council’s Ukraine Alert, notes that Putin’s constitutional proposals clearly indicate his intentions to retain control while also creating an illusion of change:

Putin’s last constitutional conjuring trick, which saw him return to the presidency in 2012 after a farcical four-year handover to Dmitry Medvedev, sparked mass protests in Moscow that left the regime rattled. With his approval rating currently in the doldrums, Putin knows he must tread carefully as he seeks to extend his reign beyond 2024. Much will now depend on the public reaction to Putin’s plans. Large-scale protests are unlikely but cannot be ruled out as Russians face up to the reality of a stagnating economy and the prospect of Putin in power for another generation.

Putin’s actions should alarm the international community. They pose a grave threat to the rule of law.

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Trump’s Impeachment Trial Will Only Make Us Hate Washington Even More

Today is the day that the impeachment trial of President Donald Trump gets underway. Proceedings start around 1 p.m. in Washington (go here for places to watch) and are expected to last anywhere from a week to a month (Bill Clinton’s trial in 1999 lasted five weeks). In a vote that proceeded along party lines, President Trump has been charged with abuse of power and obstruction of Congress. He is widely expected to be found not guilty by the Senate, in a vote that will also proceed largely, if not completely, along party lines.

Come February, or whenever the pompously self-declared “world’s greatest deliberative body” votes on the matter, we will be right back to where we started, only a little bit more in debt, a little angrier, and a little more behind schedule on nuts-and-bolts things like passing a real budget for the current fiscal year, figuring out how to pay for entitlements, and discerning whether we’re technically at war with various countries.

The impeachment process thus perfectly encapsulates everything that is wrong with the federal government. From start to finish, the impeachment is almost purely partisan and political rather than substantive, and it accomplishes nothing other than driving down even further any form of trust or confidence in the presidency, Congress, or even the Supreme Court (Chief Justice John Roberts will preside over the Senate trial). To be fair, impeachment is designed to be a political, rather than legal, process. It’s not about discovering the truth of what happened, or even fully explaining what happened, as you’d expect in a real trial. As Gerald Ford noted just a few years before becoming president himself after the resignation of Richard Nixon (who was faced with his own impeachment trial), an impeachable offense “is whatever a majority of the House of Representatives considers it to be at a given moment in history.”

It’s only fitting, then, that being found innocent will be an equally partisan exercise. Indeed, that seems especially fitting in an election year in which the incumbent shows some of the worst approval numbers in history and still seems to have an excellent shot at winning a second term.

I’ve documented over the years how far and fast trust and confidence in various parts of the federal government has fallen. In 1964, for instance, 77 percent of Americans agreed that they trusted “the government in Washington always or most of the time.” As of last year, that figure stood at 17 percent. When it comes to the presidency, trust has toppled from 73 percent in 1972 to 45 percent.  For Congress, the drop is even worse, plummeting from 71 percent in 1972 to 38 percent in 2019. Trust in the Supreme Court has followed the same general trend, even if its numbers are better. In 1988, 56 percent had a high degree of trust in the Supreme Court but thirty years later, that figure clocked in at 37 percent.

It’s unlikely that the purely partisan impeachment process will do anything but accelerate those trends. For libertarians, this might on its face seem a blessing, as evacuating trust and confidence in the federal government is surely a precondition for radically reducing its growth and power.

But that’s not how things work. Again and again—and in countries all over the world—declines in trust of government correlate strongly with calls for more government regulation in more parts of our lives. “Individuals in low-trust countries want more government intervention even though they know the government is corrupt,” explain the authors of a 2010 Quarterly Journal of Economics paper. That’s certainly the case in the United States, where the size, scope, and spending of government has vastly increased over exactly the same period in which trust and confidence in the government has cratered. In 2018, I talked with one of the paper’s authors, Andrei Shleifer, a Harvard economist who grew up in the Soviet Union before coming to America. Why do citizens ask a government they don’t believe in to bring order? “They want regulation,” he said. “They want a dictator who will bring back order.”

Counterintuitively, the relative size and spending of government in the United States actually flattened or dipped during periods when trust and confidence in government picked up:

From 1994 to 2001, Pew data show upticks in the number of people who trust the government to mostly do the right thing…. Using inflation-adjusted dollars, the feds spent about $250 billion more in [Bill] Clinton’s last year than in his first, a small increase compared to the spending surges seen under Ronald Reagan and George W. Bush. Viewed as a percentage of GDP, federal spending fell significantly during that period. In 1991, it equaled 21 percent. By 2001, it equaled just 17.5 percent.

There were many reasons for minor increases in trust and confidence in government during the 1990s. The end of the Cold War, the rise of the internet, and continual economic expansion all played important roles (especially the latter). While Washington got shriller—virtually all modern forms of hyper-polarization were present or birthed in the ’90s—it also became less important to more people. Clinton famously acknowledged that “the era of big government is over” even as Congress worked in a bipartisan fashion to change welfare, cut capital gains taxes, and slash defense spending. That sort of rapprochement is unimaginable in the current moment.

You can argue that Trump richly deserves to be the third president to face an impeachment trial, that we should be impeaching all the presidents all the time, or that Trump is actually the victim of a coup. You might even win those arguments. But none of that matters if you really care about restraining the size of government. Come the end of the Senate trial that starts today, Trump will almost certainly still be in office, Democrats and Republicans will hate each other even more, and trust and confidence in Washington will be even lower than it already is.

And the spending of the federal government, what Milton Friedman said was the purest measure of its power, will continue to set new records. All impeachment will have done is add more fuel to the perpetual dumpster fire that is Washington and pushed the calendar back a month or so when it comes to the fiscal reckoning that awaits us in the new decade.

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Vladimir Putin Is Not Reforming the State. He’s Taking Power for Himself.

Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev and his entire cabinet resigned last week in the wake of what The New York Times‘ Andrew Higgins calls “sweeping constitutional changes.” This is the first major alteration of Russia’s constitution since the 1990s, and it would effectively secure President Vladimir Putin’s control of the state.

At a glance, it’s clear that Putin’s intention is to stay in power after 2024, the year he’s constitutionally required to step down after two consecutive terms. But his changes also indicate a methodical plan to conserve power in the executive branch, which sets a dangerous international precedent.

In his address to the Federal Assembly, Russia’s national legislature, Putin proposed to move some key powers from the executive branch to the Duma, Russia’s parliament, and the State Council, an advisory body that handles issues deemed of the highest importance to the state. The most significant constitutional changes would allow the Duma to appoint members to the prime minister’s cabinet and allow the State Council to oversee the appointment of the heads of Russia’s security agencies.

In addition to giving the State Council constitutional status, Putin also intends to limit the supremacy of international law.  The amendments would ban foreign citizenship and foreign residency permits for judicial and legislative officials and require presidential candidates to have had permanent residence in Russia for at least 25 years.

“Is this a coup? Absolutely,” says Elena Lukyanova, law professor at Russia’s Higher School of Economics. She adds that the amendments would allow the Russian government to refuse to fulfill its obligations under international treaties.

But why has Putin taken a more subtle approach to maintaining his autocracy as opposed to simply removing term limits from Russia’s constitution? Maria Snegovaya, post-doctoral fellow at John Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies, compares Putin’s transfer of power to that of Nursultan Nazarbayev, Kazakhstan’s president, in 2019. Nazarbayev had distributed some elements of presidential authority to the Kazakh Senate and Security Council. Nazarbayev then put his daughter in charge of one body and himself in charge of the other.

“Putin’s goal is to avoid concentrating too much power under a singular institution outside of his control, lest it diminish his authority or even threaten his rule,” Snegovaya writes.

Peter Dickinson, editor of Atlantic Council’s Ukraine Alert, notes that Putin’s constitutional proposals clearly indicate his intentions to retain control while also creating an illusion of change:

Putin’s last constitutional conjuring trick, which saw him return to the presidency in 2012 after a farcical four-year handover to Dmitry Medvedev, sparked mass protests in Moscow that left the regime rattled. With his approval rating currently in the doldrums, Putin knows he must tread carefully as he seeks to extend his reign beyond 2024. Much will now depend on the public reaction to Putin’s plans. Large-scale protests are unlikely but cannot be ruled out as Russians face up to the reality of a stagnating economy and the prospect of Putin in power for another generation.

Putin’s actions should alarm the international community. They pose a grave threat to the rule of law.

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