The Biggest Stock Market “Melt Up” In US History Has Pushed Prices To The Most Overvalued Ever

The Biggest Stock Market “Melt Up” In US History Has Pushed Prices To The Most Overvalued Ever

Authored by Michael Snyder via TheMostImportantNews.com,

Over the past several months, we have witnessed one of the greatest stock market rallies in American history. The S&P 500 has gone 70 days in a row without a 1 percent loss, and most weeks we have seen one daily surge after another. If stock prices were exploding because the underlying U.S. economy was performing extremely well, we would have reason to celebrate. Unfortunately, that is not the case at all. In fact, last week I shared 12 signs that the economy is actually slowing down substantially. Instead, this stock market “melt up” is being largely fueled by reckless intervention by the Federal Reserve. The Fed’s balance sheet has been ballooning once again, and investors know that stock prices tend to go up significantly when that is happening. So right now Wall Street is in the midst of a raucous party, and everything will be wonderful as long as stock prices continue to move in the right direction.

Unfortunately, no stock market rally lasts forever, and a day of reckoning is coming. At this point, stock prices have become so absurd that even the New York Times is saying that we should “worry” about what is ahead.

We also witnessed dramatic stock market “melt ups” prior to the stock market crash of 1929, prior to the bursting of the dotcom bubble, and prior to the financial crisis of 2008.

If you are not familiar with the term “melt up”, here is a pretty good definition from Investopedia

A melt up is a dramatic and unexpected improvement in the investment performance of an asset class, driven partly by a stampede of investors who don’t want to miss out on its rise, rather than by fundamental improvements in the economy. Gains that a melt up creates are considered to be unreliable indications of the direction the market is ultimately headed. Melt ups often precede melt downs.

That definition accurately describes what we are witnessing on Wall Street right now. There has been so much euphoria, and of course many of the wild-eyed optimists seem to think that it can last indefinitely.

But how much higher can stock prices possibly go? After all, they are already the most overvalued that they have ever been in all of U.S. history.

A very simple way to judge whether stock prices are overvalued or undervalued is to look at the price-to-sales ratio for the S&P 500 as a whole. During the best of times, it should be somewhere between 1.0 and 1.5, but thanks to the absurd rally that Wall Street has been enjoying the price-to-sales ratio for the S&P 500 has now been pushed above 2.4. If you would like to see what this looks like for yourself, just check out this chart from Zero Hedge.

Stock prices should have never, ever gotten to this point without sufficient underlying sales to justify such high valuations. If the S&P 500 were to fall 50 percent from the current level, that would put us at a point that is relatively “normal” for good economic times.

But of course our financial markets would not be able to handle a 50 percent decline in stock prices because the system is so highly leveraged. It would be a disaster unlike anything we have seen before, and so the Federal Reserve feels as though there is no other alternative other than to continue to pump up this absolutely absurd bubble.

Another very simple indicator that shows that stocks are now more overvalued than ever before is “the Buffett Indicator”. As Harry Dent has pointed out, the ratio of total market capitalization to U.S. GDP has never been higher than it is currently. You can see this for yourself by looking at this chart. The stock market would have to fall by a third just to get back to the ridiculous level we witnessed just prior to the financial crisis of 2008. We truly are in unprecedented territory, and every other stock market bubble of this nature in our entire history has ended very, very badly.

If you want to blame someone for getting us into such a precarious position, you should blame the Federal Reserve. And at this point, even Fed officials are acknowledging what is going on. For example, just check out what Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan recently said

It was at the very least, a little refreshing to hear Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan openly talked about this in an interview Wednesday. Although he did couch it in terms that implied it was a matter of some concern to him. But, of course, he went on to say, “we’ve done what we need to do up until now.”

“My own view is it’s having some effect on risk assets,” Kaplan said. “It’s a derivative of QE when we buy bills and we inject more liquidity; it affects risk assets. This is why I say growth in the balance sheet is not free. There is a cost to it.”

The Fed is desperately trying to keep control of interest rates, but in the process they are creating ideal conditions for a stock market crash.

As 2019 rolled to an end, even Wolf Richter admitted that “there has never been a better setup” for a major market meltdown…

In my decades of looking at the stock market, there has never been a better setup. Exuberance is pandemic and sky-high. And even after today’s dip, the S&P 500 is up nearly 29% for the year, and the Nasdaq 35%, despite lackluster growth in the global economy, where many of the S&P 500 companies are getting the majority of their revenues.

Mega-weight in the indices, Apple, is a good example: shares soared 84% in the year, though its revenues ticked up only 2%. This is not a growth story. This is an exuberance story where nothing that happens in reality – such as lacking revenue growth – matters, as we’re now told by enthusiastic crowds everywhere.

Meanwhile, the real economy has just continued to deteriorate.

While stock prices were soaring in December, U.S. freight volume was actually plummeting

Shipment volume in the US by truck, rail, air, and barge plunged 7.9% in December 2019 compared to a year earlier, according to the Cass Freight Index for Shipments. It was the 13th month in a row of year-over-year declines, and the steepest year-over-year decline since November 2009, during the Financial Crisis

As I have warned so many times, stock prices have become completely divorced from economic reality, and this is setting us up for a major financial crisis.

But for the moment, the party continues to roll on and the wild-eyes optimists are telling us that this is just the beginning of a golden new age of prosperity.


Tyler Durden

Mon, 01/20/2020 – 12:20

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Alex Jones Storms Richmond Rally In ‘Battle Tank’

Alex Jones Storms Richmond Rally In ‘Battle Tank’

Always the showman, InfoWars founder Alex Jones, the reactionary scourge of liberal Austin, Texas, showed up to Monday’s “Lobby Day” anti-gun control rally in Richmond in a battle tank, cruising the streets near the rally with a bullhorn, helping to kick the overall energy level up a few notches.

Some complained that Jones’s ‘tank’ wasn’t really a tank, but a souped-up truck. Though that kind of misses the point.

Meanwhile, the crowds spouted off some inventive chants targeting “racist Ralph” Northam, who infamously clung to his office despite an embarrassing scandal involving photos of him wearing black face in an old med school yearbook.

One activist even debuted a petition to recall Northam, the principal player in the Virginia Democrats’ gun control push.

Jones has been laying low lately, or at least it seems that way now that Infowars has been banned from practically ever mainstream social media platform, including YouTube. Recently, the mainstream media and the American justice system – which sided against him in a case filed by parents of Sandy Hook shooting victims – seem to have conspired to take him down.

Yet here he is, driving a ‘tank’ down Richmond’s streets, ensuring that he will be impossible to ignore.


Tyler Durden

Mon, 01/20/2020 – 11:55

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Virginia Gov. Northam Smears Gun Control Opponents to Frighten His Base

Virginia Gov. Ralph Northam is misusing a regularly scheduled political rally to frighten his base and gin up support for his troubled administration. Flinging scare-mongering language, the Democratic governor has portrayed a grassroots lobbying effort against gun restrictions as a potential source of “violent extremism” and declared a state of emergency.

It’s a cheap attempt to build support by delegitimizing opposition to his policies. On the way to declaring a state of emergency, Northam breathlessly warned:

Credible intelligence gathered by Virginia’s law enforcement agencies indicates that tens of thousands of advocates plan to converge on Capitol Square for events culminating on January 20, 2020. Available information suggests that a substantial number of these demonstrators are expected to come from outside the Commonwealth, may be armed, and have as their purpose not peaceful assembly but violence, rioting, and insurrection.

The “events culminating on January 20, 2020” consist of the Virginia Civil Defense League’s (VCDL) annual lobby day, in which it gathers at Capitol Square, like many other organizations (the Virginia Nurses Association has four lobby days planned for the end of January and beginning of February) do. In the case, the organization is advocating for self-defense rights and against restrictions on the same.

Images of the VCDL’s peaceful 2017 rally are on display at the organization’s website. This is a normal, regularly scheduled gathering intended to influence public policy.

But the governor warns that this year’s event features “white nationalist rhetoric and plans by out-of-state militia groups to attend.” He links the gathering to “events that occurred in Charlottesville,” as if a gathering by opponents of his policies must inevitably descend into violence launched by fringe-dwellers.

Will fringe racists and right-wing radicals attend today’s rally? Almost certainly. Back when anti-war protests were a thing (remember them?) an even more predictable feature than Susan Sarandon on the stage were clusters of far-left types wandering through the crowd trying to convince attendees that a desire for peace implies a workers’ revolution and liquidating the bourgeoisie. Radicals frequently court recruits by piggybacking their causes on mainstream ones. In and of itself, that doesn’t reflect on the mainstream cause.

In fact, one of the groups joining the rally is Antifascists of the Seven Hills, an anti-capitalist group which opposes gun restrictions because “gun control serves to weaken our defense positions.” They don’t want to leave any racist presence at the rally unopposed by other pro-gun voices.

“In considering how to deter their recruitment and nullify their ability to harm folks lobbying or otherwise going about their business, we recognized that the VCDL was drawing lines in the sand on optics, and trying to distance themselves from other issues and symbols like the Confederate battle flag,” the group notes on its Facebook page.

Whatever your opinion of antifa (I’ve been a critic), it’s clear that this isn’t the unalloyed white nationalist gathering that Northam describes.

No, whether you agree or disagree with it, the rally’s message is certainly mainstream. Even as VCDL warns that “proposed bills will turn many semi-automatic firearm owners into felons,” 86 of Virginia’s 95 counties had passed measures declaring themselves sanctuaries for self-defense rights, as of the end of December.

“They suggest that the counties might not enforce new state laws limiting gun rights,” the Wall Street Journal reports of the sanctuary jurisdictions.

To a large extent, that’s a reflection of the state’s version of the national urban-rural divide, which has too many politicians favoring one side while vilifying and punishing the other. In Virginia, support for Northam and the Democratic legislative majority is concentrated in the state’s urban crescent, while the sanctuary counties are in rural and exurban areas that even a Democratic county chairman accused his party of treating with “malevolent neglect.”

With an immediate post-election victory push for gun restrictions, state Democrats play to the prejudices of their urban-to-suburban base with legislation that sticks it to the rural areas where such laws are largely unpopular.

Playing the same game a year after news reports that, years ago, he dressed in blackface, Northam seeks revived credibility among urban, progressive voters by pushing his party’s gun control proposals. And then he doubles down by smearing his opponents as bent on “violence, rioting, and insurrection.”

But what about that “credible intelligence” Northam claims was gathered by law enforcement agencies? Maybe it exists, but governments have a long history of feeding the public’s fears to delegitimize opponents and justify extraordinary actions.

“The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary,” H. L. Mencken mused decades ago.

“It had become clear, to me at least, that the repeated evocations of terror by the political class were not a response to any specific threat or concern but a cynical attempt to turn terror into a permanent danger that required permanent vigilance enforced by unquestionable authority,” Edward Snowden wrote in 2019’s Permanent Record of his growing awareness of what lay behind the surveillance state.

Northam’s alleged “credible intelligence” that this year’s iteration of an annual political gathering is poised to erupt in an orgy of racism and violence gives him fodder for proclaiming a state of emergency over a normal expression of political dissent. In doing so, Northam makes it clear that he represents only his supporters, that he considers opponents’ political views beyond the pale, and that he’s prepared to use extraordinary means in order to get his way.

Northam isn’t the only offender in this regard. Treating opponents as abnormal, subject to special sanction, and even as enemies of the people is an increasingly popular tactic for America’s political class. It’s also incredibly dangerous for the health of the political system.

People who are treated by government officials as enemies to be crushed would be foolish to submit to the authority of those officials. To do so is to bare their throats to a predator. If politicians are going to smear their opponents as illegitimate, they should be prepared to receive the same treatment in return.

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Trump Jr.: “Democrats And Media Hate Trump Much More Than They Love America”

Trump Jr.: “Democrats And Media Hate Trump Much More Than They Love America”

Authored by Steve Watson via Summit News,

During an interview with Fox News Sunday, Donald Trump Jr. slammed Democrats and the media when discussing the ongoing impeachment saga, declaring that they “hate Trump more than they love America”.

President Trump’s son told Sunday Morning Futures “They will double down. Any opportunity to hurt Trump, and that is the reality.”

You can’t dispute the numbers. You can’t dispute all-time low unemployment for every group in this country, every demographic.” Trump Jr. continued.

He further charged that Democrats do not want to play fair when it comes to witnesses during the impeachment show trial.

“Hearing from everyone is totally fair, that’s not what we’ve seen so far while Democrats have controlled the process, it has not been fair in any way, shape or form.” Trump said.

Trump Jr. also slammed moderate Republicans for being willing to allow Democrats to call witnesses, but moving to block the president from doing the same.

“The, let’s call it weaker Republicans… if some of those guys don’t want to hear from the witnesses we’d want to hear from but will hear from the others, I want to know about it, because they don’t deserve to be in office.” he stated.

“I sort of like the Rand Paul model, make them vote on it.” Trump added, referring to the Kentucky Senator’s support for a vote to determine whether the President’s team will have the ability to call witnesses following opening arguments.

The move would pave the way for calling to the stand Joe Biden, his son Hunter Biden and the so called ‘anonymous whistle-blower’.

The Senate will formally commence its trial procedures in votes this week.


Tyler Durden

Mon, 01/20/2020 – 11:30

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Google v. Oracle

The briefs have started to come in [see here], and the Supreme Court will soon hear oral argument (date TBD), in the Google v. Oracle** case.

**Connoisseurs of case captions will appreciate the nice “two-heavyweights-going-mano a mano,” “Ali v. Frazier” quality of this one; no et als, no d/b/as, no on behalf ofs … just the two titans facing off. It has some of the flavor of my favorite captions of all, cases (one or two of which the Court usually hears every year) involving competing State boundary claims or water rights or some-such, whose captions always sound like college football or basketball games: Nebraska v. Oklahoma, Michigan v. Wisconsin, etc.

It is, perhaps, the most important copyright case the Court has heard in over a decade, and interest in the case runs high, to put it mildly. Twenty-six amicus briefs supporting Google’s position, submitted by an exceptionally broad range of individuals, commercial entities, and non-profits—from Microsoft and IBM to Mozilla and Reddit and the Internet Society to the National Association for the Blind and the American Antitrust Association to a raft of law professors and computer scientists—were filed last week (plus two in support of neither party).*** That already puts the case at the high end of the distribution of the number of amicus briefs submitted per case (the average, in the Supreme Court, is around 10 or 11; see here), and we still have yet to hear from amici on Oracle’s side, who have until Feb. 19th to file their own briefs.

***Jonathan Band has provided a helpful summary of these briefs here.  [Disclosure: Band represents one of the amici (the Computer and Communications Industry Association), and I have signed on to one of the law professors’ briefs supporting Google’s position in the case.]

The case involves a claim by Oracle that Google, in developing its Android operating system, infringed Oracle’s copyright in the Java programming platform. A little technical background is indispensable for understanding Oracle’s claim and why it is so important.

A program written in the Java language contains two different kinds of code: “declaring code” and “implementing code.” Declaring code (sometimes called a Java “declaration”) invokes (or “calls”) other programs from within a pre-existing library of Java programs, in order to accomplish some basic task—finding the larger of two integers, say, or summing a string of figures. The pre-written programs that are “called” from the library constitute the “implementation code.”

Oracle gives this example in one of its briefs:

The URLConnection program, for example, has the following declaring code:

public URLConnection openConnection()

    throws java.io.IOException

An app programmer who wanted to connect her application to BankofAmerica.com without writing her own code can call on Oracle’s pre-written code by typing:

new URL(‘https://ift.tt/2NFx0gE Connection()

Then, when the program runs, the Java platform recognizes the declaring code and invokes the corresponding “implementing code” to connect to www.BankofAmerica.com.

The availability of a library of pre-written implementation code for thousands of tasks—pre-written and pre-tested subroutines, in effect—is one of the things that has made Java such a popular language in which to code applications, enabling Java programmers to accomplish a wide variety of tasks without having to re-invent the wheel and devise their own implementing code for these basic functions from scratch.

Oracle’s library of implementation code programs (sometimes also denoted as “methods”) contains over 30,000 such programs, containing many millions of lines of code, and is one of its most valuable IP assets. Oracle owns the copyright in these programs—nobody disputes that—and it actively issues licenses for their use. Anyone may obtain a royalty-free “open source” license to this entire collection of Java subroutines. Because open source licenses require users to make any alterations they make to the pre-existing code available to the public, many commercial entites are unwilling to enter into them, and Oracle accommodates them by also issuing commercial royalty-bearing licenses, at a negotiated price.

When Google began work on the Android operating system in the mid-2000s, it entered into negotiations with Oracle to obtain a commercial license for this implementing code—Oracle’s entire “Java Platform”—but those negotiations broke down. Instead of abandoning its decision to use the Java language for the Android operating system, Google chose to have its own engineers re-write those implementing programs (or, in some cases, to acquire code from third-party sources). [This new, non-Oracle implementing code, incidentally, makes up around 97% of the code for the Android operating system.]

So that’s the first important thing to understand about this case: Oracle has no copyright claim—and it has asserted no copyright claim—based on its immense and valuable collection of implementation programs, because Google did not end up copying any of that code.

What, then, is Oracle’s claim based upon?  Google did indeed copy something: it copied Oracle’s hierarchical system for organizing these 30,000+ implementation programs. A little more technical background: Oracle organizes its collection of implementation programs/methods into a hierarchy consisting of about 3,000 “classes” of code performing different but related functions, which are then grouped together into around 150 different “packages” (aka “Application Program Interfaces,” or “APIs”) of related higher-level functions. It is, as Google describes it in its opening brief [here], the equivalent of an ordinary filing system: each package is a file cabinet, each class is a drawer within one of the cabinets, and each individual program containing a “method” is a folder within the drawer within the cabinet.

Google copied this hierarchical system for organizing Java methods because the corresponding declarations/calls must replicate this hierarchical system precisely if the calls are to operate correctly and find the proper “method” to run. For instance, “max” is a method/implementation program that finds the larger of two integers; a Java program seeking to invoke and run the “max” program would have a declaration that looks like this:  java.lang.Math.max(5, 10). This indicates that the code for “max” is to be found within the Math “class” within the java.lang “package.”

The structure and text of the declarations, in other words, are tightly constrained by the hierarchical structure of the methods, classes, and packages; indeed, they are entirely determined by that hierarchy. As the district court put it, “the rules of Java dictate the precise form of certain necessary lines of code called declarations, whose precise and necessary form explains why Android and Java must be identical when it comes to those particular lines of [declaring] code.”

And Java programmers have already learned thousands upon thousands of declarations that are based on the Oracle organizing scheme. That is, in fact, a major component of what a Java programmer learns in order to become a Java programmer. Google’s use of Oracle’s hierarchical system for organizing the library of methods meant that Android programmers would be able to use the declarations with which they were already intimately familiar, without requiring those programmers to learn thousands of new declarations/calls to perform common tasks.

Thus, within the Android operating system, the declaration described above—java.lang.Math.max(5, 10)—does what it always does in a Java program: it finds the larger of two integers by running an implementation program (called “max”) that is located in the class Math in the java.lang package.

As Google puts it in its opening brief:

Google understood that developers would want to use their existing Java language skills to create Android applications, including their knowledge of familiar declarations and shorthand commands to trigger common operations. For those commands to work on the Android platform, Google had to replicate the syntax and structure of the Java API declarations exactly; any change to those declarations would have prevented developers from reusing the same commands, thereby forcing them to learn new commands for each routine task. Google accordingly used the same declarations for certain methods in 37 Java API libraries that were determined by Google to be “key to mobile devices.” For every one of those methods, however, Google wrote its own implementing code, tailoring the code to accommodate the unique challenges of the smartphone environment.

That’s the heart of this dispute: whether copying the hierarchical structure of the library of implementation programs—not the implementation code in those programs, but the system by which those programs are organized—and the declarations that reflect that hierarchical structure (e.g., java.lang.Math.max(5, 10)) infringe Oracle’s copyright in that structure and those declarations.

Google argues that it does not. I agree, and so did the district court, which held, correctly, that the structure of the libraries, and the corresponding text of the declarations which reflect that structure, are not protected by copyright at all. Without diving too deep into the copyright weeds, the short version of the court’s reasoning is simple and straightforward. The Copyright Act, a hopeless muddle about many things, is transparently clear on point: copyright protection is not available for systems or processes or organizing methods or the like. Section 102(b) says this explicitly, and reads in full:

In no case does copyright protection for an original work of authorship extend to any idea, procedure, process, system, method of operation, concept, principle, or discovery, regardless of the form in which it is described, explained, illustrated, or embodied in such work.” (emphasis added)

This is one of the truly fundamental principles underlying our entire intellectual property regime: No matter how original or creative your system may be, or how much time and effort you put into developing it—and Oracle spends a great deal of time in its pleadings showing how original and creative and useful and valuable its hierarchical organizing system for Java methods is, and how much time and effort it expended on its development—copyright law does not allow you to prevent others from reproducing and using that system.  

Incidentally, a posting [here]at the Federalist Society by David Hogberg gets this case horribly wrong. The inadvertent tip-off is right there in the headline:

“Here’s How The Supreme Court Can Stop Google From Stealing People’s Ideas.”

The Supreme Court can do no such thing, because copyright law does not prohibit “stealing” ideas; copying someone else’s idea isn’t “stealing” at all, because ideas can never receive copyright protection, no matter how brilliant or original it may be.

This vital principle establishes, among other important things, the line separating the world of copyright from the world of patent. You can get IP protection for a “system” or a “process” or a “method of operation,” but only by obtaining a patent on it, which will require you to meet very different, and far more stringent, requirements to obtain protection than does copyright, and which will last for a far, far shorter period of time.

Copyright aficionados will recognize this principle as having been derived from the seminal Baker v. Selden (101 US 99, 1879) case, a delicious case of 19th century commercial intrigue. Selden had come up with a new and innovative method of double-entry bookkeeping—one that, I’m told by those who understand bookkeeping better than I do, has been incorporated into much standard bookkeeping practice. He published a book describing the system, along with several blank data-entry forms that were to be used when implementing his new system. Baker, a stationery publisher, published books containing blank bookkeeping forms, and he included Selden’s forms; Selden sued, asserting that Baker had infringed his copyright in the book.

The Court held for Baker. It started with a “proposition so evident that it requires hardly any argument to support it”: that Selden, though he possessed a valid copyright in his book, obtained no exclusive rights therefrom in the bookkeeping system itself. Exclusive rights of that kind, the Court declared, “are the province of letters-patent, not of copyright,” and any such claim “must be subjected to the examination of the Patent Office before an exclusive right therein can be obtained.” Because Selden’s system had not been patented, it was “open and free to the use of the public.”

And because using the system required using the special forms that Selden had devised—the Court called the forms “necessary incidents” to the use of the system itself—the forms were, like the system itself, “open and free to the use of the public.” To hold otherwise—to give Selden a copyright monopoly over the forms—would effectively give him a monopoly over the use of the system. Patent-like protection, in other words, without having to satisfy the requirements of the Patent Act.

In short, Oracle’s system for organizing its library of Java “methods” has no copyright protection whatsoever, and Google was allowed—at least as far as copyright law is concerned—to copy it. Only a patent would serve to protect it from replication—and Oracle, like Mr. Selden, didn’t get a patent. As the district court put it:

That a system or method of operation has thousands of commands arranged in a creative taxonomy does not change its character as a method of operation. Yes, it is creative. Yes, it is original. But it is nevertheless a command structure, a system or method of operation — a long hierarchy of over six thousand commands to carry out pre-assigned functions. For that reason, it cannot receive copyright protection — patent protection perhaps — but not copyright protection.

[A great deal of ] code had been written in Java before Android arrived. These programs necessarily used the java.package.Class.method() command format. These programs called on all or some of the specific 37 packages at issue and necessarily used the command structure of names at issue. Such code was owned by the developers themselves, not by Oracle. In order for at least some of this code to run on Android, Google was required to provide the same java.package.Class.method() command system using the same names with the same “taxonomy” and with the same functional specifications. Google replicated what was necessary to achieve a degree of interoperability—but no more, taking care, as said before, to provide its own implementations…. Google was and remains free to group its methods in the same way as in Java, that is, to organize its Android methods under the same class and package scheme as in Java.

“Necessary to achieve a degree of interoperability.” That language helps explain why the case is so important, and why interest in it is so high. If Oracle prevails here, the ability of software developers to design interoperable programs—programs which borrow enough of the command structure and organization of other, pre-existing programs—will be deeply compromised, and that could well have rather profound and unfortunate consequences throughout the technology industries.

The Federal Circuit, in reversing the district court and holding that Oracle did possess an enforceable copyright in its system for organizing the Java methods library, has perpetrated a deep and substantial misunderstanding of U.S. copyright law.*** One hopes that the Supreme Court will take this opportunity to correct that unfortunate state of affairs and put copyright law back on course.

***That the case ended up going from the Northern District of California to the Federal Circuit—the appellate court primarily responsible for hearing patent appeals—rather than the Ninth Circuit was due to the fact that Oracle had originally asserted a patent claim in addition to its copyright claim. The patent claim, however, was subsequently dismissed, though not before it had given the Federal Circuit jurisdiction over the appeal. The judges on the Federal Circuit have little experience with the Copyright Act, and it showed.

In fact, the Federal Circuit reversed two separate decisions in Google’s favor in this case. On the first appeal, it reversed the district court by holding that Oracle’s organization of its Java libraries was a copyrightable work of authorship, and remanded the case back to the district court for trial. The district court then held a full jury trial on the question of whether Google had infringed that copyright; the jury found no infringement because Google’s use of the hierarchical structure constituted a “fair use.” Once again, on appeal, the Federal Circuit reversed. That decision, too, for reasons I won’t go into here [see here and here if you’re interested], has little to recommend it.

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Virginia Gov. Northam Smears Gun Control Opponents to Frighten His Base

Virginia Gov. Ralph Northam is misusing a regularly scheduled political rally to frighten his base and gin up support for his troubled administration. Flinging scare-mongering language, the Democratic governor has portrayed a grassroots lobbying effort against gun restrictions as a potential source of “violent extremism” and declared a state of emergency.

It’s a cheap attempt to build support by delegitimizing opposition to his policies. On the way to declaring a state of emergency, Northam breathlessly warned:

Credible intelligence gathered by Virginia’s law enforcement agencies indicates that tens of thousands of advocates plan to converge on Capitol Square for events culminating on January 20, 2020. Available information suggests that a substantial number of these demonstrators are expected to come from outside the Commonwealth, may be armed, and have as their purpose not peaceful assembly but violence, rioting, and insurrection.

The “events culminating on January 20, 2020” consist of the Virginia Civil Defense League’s (VCDL) annual lobby day, in which it gathers at Capitol Square, like many other organizations (the Virginia Nurses Association has four lobby days planned for the end of January and beginning of February) do. In the case, the organization is advocating for self-defense rights and against restrictions on the same.

Images of the VCDL’s peaceful 2017 rally are on display at the organization’s website. This is a normal, regularly scheduled gathering intended to influence public policy.

But the governor warns that this year’s event features “white nationalist rhetoric and plans by out-of-state militia groups to attend.” He links the gathering to “events that occurred in Charlottesville,” as if a gathering by opponents of his policies must inevitably descend into violence launched by fringe-dwellers.

Will fringe racists and right-wing radicals attend today’s rally? Almost certainly. Back when anti-war protests were a thing (remember them?) an even more predictable feature than Susan Sarandon on the stage were clusters of far-left types wandering through the crowd trying to convince attendees that a desire for peace implies a workers’ revolution and liquidating the bourgeoisie. Radicals frequently court recruits by piggybacking their causes on mainstream ones. In and of itself, that doesn’t reflect on the mainstream cause.

In fact, one of the groups joining the rally is Antifascists of the Seven Hills, an anti-capitalist group which opposes gun restrictions because “gun control serves to weaken our defense positions.” They don’t want to leave any racist presence at the rally unopposed by other pro-gun voices.

“In considering how to deter their recruitment and nullify their ability to harm folks lobbying or otherwise going about their business, we recognized that the VCDL was drawing lines in the sand on optics, and trying to distance themselves from other issues and symbols like the Confederate battle flag,” the group notes on its Facebook page.

Whatever your opinion of antifa (I’ve been a critic), it’s clear that this isn’t the unalloyed white nationalist gathering that Northam describes.

No, whether you agree or disagree with it, the rally’s message is certainly mainstream. Even as VCDL warns that “proposed bills will turn many semi-automatic firearm owners into felons,” 86 of Virginia’s 95 counties had passed measures declaring themselves sanctuaries for self-defense rights, as of the end of December.

“They suggest that the counties might not enforce new state laws limiting gun rights,” the Wall Street Journal reports of the sanctuary jurisdictions.

To a large extent, that’s a reflection of the state’s version of the national urban-rural divide, which has too many politicians favoring one side while vilifying and punishing the other. In Virginia, support for Northam and the Democratic legislative majority is concentrated in the state’s urban crescent, while the sanctuary counties are in rural and exurban areas that even a Democratic county chairman accused his party of treating with “malevolent neglect.”

With an immediate post-election victory push for gun restrictions, state Democrats play to the prejudices of their urban-to-suburban base with legislation that sticks it to the rural areas where such laws are largely unpopular.

Playing the same game a year after news reports that, years ago, he dressed in blackface, Northam seeks revived credibility among urban, progressive voters by pushing his party’s gun control proposals. And then he doubles down by smearing his opponents as bent on “violence, rioting, and insurrection.”

But what about that “credible intelligence” Northam claims was gathered by law enforcement agencies? Maybe it exists, but governments have a long history of feeding the public’s fears to delegitimize opponents and justify extraordinary actions.

“The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary,” H. L. Mencken mused decades ago.

“It had become clear, to me at least, that the repeated evocations of terror by the political class were not a response to any specific threat or concern but a cynical attempt to turn terror into a permanent danger that required permanent vigilance enforced by unquestionable authority,” Edward Snowden wrote in 2019’s Permanent Record of his growing awareness of what lay behind the surveillance state.

Northam’s alleged “credible intelligence” that this year’s iteration of an annual political gathering is poised to erupt in an orgy of racism and violence gives him fodder for proclaiming a state of emergency over a normal expression of political dissent. In doing so, Northam makes it clear that he represents only his supporters, that he considers opponents’ political views beyond the pale, and that he’s prepared to use extraordinary means in order to get his way.

Northam isn’t the only offender in this regard. Treating opponents as abnormal, subject to special sanction, and even as enemies of the people is an increasingly popular tactic for America’s political class. It’s also incredibly dangerous for the health of the political system.

People who are treated by government officials as enemies to be crushed would be foolish to submit to the authority of those officials. To do so is to bare their throats to a predator. If politicians are going to smear their opponents as illegitimate, they should be prepared to receive the same treatment in return.

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Google v. Oracle

The briefs have started to come in [see here], and the Supreme Court will soon hear oral argument (date TBD), in the Google v. Oracle** case.

**Connoisseurs of case captions will appreciate the nice “two-heavyweights-going-mano a mano,” “Ali v. Frazier” quality of this one; no et als, no d/b/as, no on behalf ofs … just the two titans facing off. It has some of the flavor of my favorite captions of all, cases (one or two of which the Court usually hears every year) involving competing State boundary claims or water rights or some-such, whose captions always sound like college football or basketball games: Nebraska v. Oklahoma, Michigan v. Wisconsin, etc.

It is, perhaps, the most important copyright case the Court has heard in over a decade, and interest in the case runs high, to put it mildly. Twenty-six amicus briefs supporting Google’s position, submitted by an exceptionally broad range of individuals, commercial entities, and non-profits—from Microsoft and IBM to Mozilla and Reddit and the Internet Society to the National Association for the Blind and the American Antitrust Association to a raft of law professors and computer scientists—were filed last week (plus two in support of neither party).*** That already puts the case at the high end of the distribution of the number of amicus briefs submitted per case (the average, in the Supreme Court, is around 10 or 11; see here), and we still have yet to hear from amici on Oracle’s side, who have until Feb. 19th to file their own briefs.

***Jonathan Band has provided a helpful summary of these briefs here.  [Disclosure: Band represents one of the amici (the Computer and Communications Industry Association), and I have signed on to one of the law professors’ briefs supporting Google’s position in the case.]

The case involves a claim by Oracle that Google, in developing its Android operating system, infringed Oracle’s copyright in the Java programming platform. A little technical background is indispensable for understanding Oracle’s claim and why it is so important.

A program written in the Java language contains two different kinds of code: “declaring code” and “implementing code.” Declaring code (sometimes called a Java “declaration”) invokes (or “calls”) other programs from within a pre-existing library of Java programs, in order to accomplish some basic task—finding the larger of two integers, say, or summing a string of figures. The pre-written programs that are “called” from the library constitute the “implementation code.”

Oracle gives this example in one of its briefs:

The URLConnection program, for example, has the following declaring code:

public URLConnection openConnection()

    throws java.io.IOException

An app programmer who wanted to connect her application to BankofAmerica.com without writing her own code can call on Oracle’s pre-written code by typing:

new URL(‘https://ift.tt/2NFx0gE Connection()

Then, when the program runs, the Java platform recognizes the declaring code and invokes the corresponding “implementing code” to connect to www.BankofAmerica.com.

The availability of a library of pre-written implementation code for thousands of tasks—pre-written and pre-tested subroutines, in effect—is one of the things that has made Java such a popular language in which to code applications, enabling Java programmers to accomplish a wide variety of tasks without having to re-invent the wheel and devise their own implementing code for these basic functions from scratch.

Oracle’s library of implementation code programs (sometimes also denoted as “methods”) contains over 30,000 such programs, containing many millions of lines of code, and is one of its most valuable IP assets. Oracle owns the copyright in these programs—nobody disputes that—and it actively issues licenses for their use. Anyone may obtain a royalty-free “open source” license to this entire collection of Java subroutines. Because open source licenses require users to make any alterations they make to the pre-existing code available to the public, many commercial entites are unwilling to enter into them, and Oracle accommodates them by also issuing commercial royalty-bearing licenses, at a negotiated price.

When Google began work on the Android operating system in the mid-2000s, it entered into negotiations with Oracle to obtain a commercial license for this implementing code—Oracle’s entire “Java Platform”—but those negotiations broke down. Instead of abandoning its decision to use the Java language for the Android operating system, Google chose to have its own engineers re-write those implementing programs (or, in some cases, to acquire code from third-party sources). [This new, non-Oracle implementing code, incidentally, makes up around 97% of the code for the Android operating system.]

So that’s the first important thing to understand about this case: Oracle has no copyright claim—and it has asserted no copyright claim—based on its immense and valuable collection of implementation programs, because Google did not end up copying any of that code.

What, then, is Oracle’s claim based upon?  Google did indeed copy something: it copied Oracle’s hierarchical system for organizing these 30,000+ implementation programs. A little more technical background: Oracle organizes its collection of implementation programs/methods into a hierarchy consisting of about 3,000 “classes” of code performing different but related functions, which are then grouped together into around 150 different “packages” (aka “Application Program Interfaces,” or “APIs”) of related higher-level functions. It is, as Google describes it in its opening brief [here], the equivalent of an ordinary filing system: each package is a file cabinet, each class is a drawer within one of the cabinets, and each individual program containing a “method” is a folder within the drawer within the cabinet.

Google copied this hierarchical system for organizing Java methods because the corresponding declarations/calls must replicate this hierarchical system precisely if the calls are to operate correctly and find the proper “method” to run. For instance, “max” is a method/implementation program that finds the larger of two integers; a Java program seeking to invoke and run the “max” program would have a declaration that looks like this:  java.lang.Math.max(5, 10). This indicates that the code for “max” is to be found within the Math “class” within the java.lang “package.”

The structure and text of the declarations, in other words, are tightly constrained by the hierarchical structure of the methods, classes, and packages; indeed, they are entirely determined by that hierarchy. As the district court put it, “the rules of Java dictate the precise form of certain necessary lines of code called declarations, whose precise and necessary form explains why Android and Java must be identical when it comes to those particular lines of [declaring] code.”

And Java programmers have already learned thousands upon thousands of declarations that are based on the Oracle organizing scheme. That is, in fact, a major component of what a Java programmer learns in order to become a Java programmer. Google’s use of Oracle’s hierarchical system for organizing the library of methods meant that Android programmers would be able to use the declarations with which they were already intimately familiar, without requiring those programmers to learn thousands of new declarations/calls to perform common tasks.

Thus, within the Android operating system, the declaration described above—java.lang.Math.max(5, 10)—does what it always does in a Java program: it finds the larger of two integers by running an implementation program (called “max”) that is located in the class Math in the java.lang package.

As Google puts it in its opening brief:

Google understood that developers would want to use their existing Java language skills to create Android applications, including their knowledge of familiar declarations and shorthand commands to trigger common operations. For those commands to work on the Android platform, Google had to replicate the syntax and structure of the Java API declarations exactly; any change to those declarations would have prevented developers from reusing the same commands, thereby forcing them to learn new commands for each routine task. Google accordingly used the same declarations for certain methods in 37 Java API libraries that were determined by Google to be “key to mobile devices.” For every one of those methods, however, Google wrote its own implementing code, tailoring the code to accommodate the unique challenges of the smartphone environment.

That’s the heart of this dispute: whether copying the hierarchical structure of the library of implementation programs—not the implementation code in those programs, but the system by which those programs are organized—and the declarations that reflect that hierarchical structure (e.g., java.lang.Math.max(5, 10)) infringe Oracle’s copyright in that structure and those declarations.

Google argues that it does not. I agree, and so did the district court, which held, correctly, that the structure of the libraries, and the corresponding text of the declarations which reflect that structure, are not protected by copyright at all. Without diving too deep into the copyright weeds, the short version of the court’s reasoning is simple and straightforward. The Copyright Act, a hopeless muddle about many things, is transparently clear on point: copyright protection is not available for systems or processes or organizing methods or the like. Section 102(b) says this explicitly, and reads in full:

In no case does copyright protection for an original work of authorship extend to any idea, procedure, process, system, method of operation, concept, principle, or discovery, regardless of the form in which it is described, explained, illustrated, or embodied in such work.” (emphasis added)

This is one of the truly fundamental principles underlying our entire intellectual property regime: No matter how original or creative your system may be, or how much time and effort you put into developing it—and Oracle spends a great deal of time in its pleadings showing how original and creative and useful and valuable its hierarchical organizing system for Java methods is, and how much time and effort it expended on its development—copyright law does not allow you to prevent others from reproducing and using that system.  

Incidentally, a posting [here]at the Federalist Society by David Hogberg gets this case horribly wrong. The inadvertent tip-off is right there in the headline:

“Here’s How The Supreme Court Can Stop Google From Stealing People’s Ideas.”

The Supreme Court can do no such thing, because copyright law does not prohibit “stealing” ideas; copying someone else’s idea isn’t “stealing” at all, because ideas can never receive copyright protection, no matter how brilliant or original it may be.

This vital principle establishes, among other important things, the line separating the world of copyright from the world of patent. You can get IP protection for a “system” or a “process” or a “method of operation,” but only by obtaining a patent on it, which will require you to meet very different, and far more stringent, requirements to obtain protection than does copyright, and which will last for a far, far shorter period of time.

Copyright aficionados will recognize this principle as having been derived from the seminal Baker v. Selden (101 US 99, 1879) case, a delicious case of 19th century commercial intrigue. Selden had come up with a new and innovative method of double-entry bookkeeping—one that, I’m told by those who understand bookkeeping better than I do, has been incorporated into much standard bookkeeping practice. He published a book describing the system, along with several blank data-entry forms that were to be used when implementing his new system. Baker, a stationery publisher, published books containing blank bookkeeping forms, and he included Selden’s forms; Selden sued, asserting that Baker had infringed his copyright in the book.

The Court held for Baker. It started with a “proposition so evident that it requires hardly any argument to support it”: that Selden, though he possessed a valid copyright in his book, obtained no exclusive rights therefrom in the bookkeeping system itself. Exclusive rights of that kind, the Court declared, “are the province of letters-patent, not of copyright,” and any such claim “must be subjected to the examination of the Patent Office before an exclusive right therein can be obtained.” Because Selden’s system had not been patented, it was “open and free to the use of the public.”

And because using the system required using the special forms that Selden had devised—the Court called the forms “necessary incidents” to the use of the system itself—the forms were, like the system itself, “open and free to the use of the public.” To hold otherwise—to give Selden a copyright monopoly over the forms—would effectively give him a monopoly over the use of the system. Patent-like protection, in other words, without having to satisfy the requirements of the Patent Act.

In short, Oracle’s system for organizing its library of Java “methods” has no copyright protection whatsoever, and Google was allowed—at least as far as copyright law is concerned—to copy it. Only a patent would serve to protect it from replication—and Oracle, like Mr. Selden, didn’t get a patent. As the district court put it:

That a system or method of operation has thousands of commands arranged in a creative taxonomy does not change its character as a method of operation. Yes, it is creative. Yes, it is original. But it is nevertheless a command structure, a system or method of operation — a long hierarchy of over six thousand commands to carry out pre-assigned functions. For that reason, it cannot receive copyright protection — patent protection perhaps — but not copyright protection.

[A great deal of ] code had been written in Java before Android arrived. These programs necessarily used the java.package.Class.method() command format. These programs called on all or some of the specific 37 packages at issue and necessarily used the command structure of names at issue. Such code was owned by the developers themselves, not by Oracle. In order for at least some of this code to run on Android, Google was required to provide the same java.package.Class.method() command system using the same names with the same “taxonomy” and with the same functional specifications. Google replicated what was necessary to achieve a degree of interoperability—but no more, taking care, as said before, to provide its own implementations…. Google was and remains free to group its methods in the same way as in Java, that is, to organize its Android methods under the same class and package scheme as in Java.

“Necessary to achieve a degree of interoperability.” That language helps explain why the case is so important, and why interest in it is so high. If Oracle prevails here, the ability of software developers to design interoperable programs—programs which borrow enough of the command structure and organization of other, pre-existing programs—will be deeply compromised, and that could well have rather profound and unfortunate consequences throughout the technology industries.

The Federal Circuit, in reversing the district court and holding that Oracle did possess an enforceable copyright in its system for organizing the Java methods library, has perpetrated a deep and substantial misunderstanding of U.S. copyright law.*** One hopes that the Supreme Court will take this opportunity to correct that unfortunate state of affairs and put copyright law back on course.

***That the case ended up going from the Northern District of California to the Federal Circuit—the appellate court primarily responsible for hearing patent appeals—rather than the Ninth Circuit was due to the fact that Oracle had originally asserted a patent claim in addition to its copyright claim. The patent claim, however, was subsequently dismissed, though not before it had given the Federal Circuit jurisdiction over the appeal. The judges on the Federal Circuit have little experience with the Copyright Act, and it showed.

In fact, the Federal Circuit reversed two separate decisions in Google’s favor in this case. On the first appeal, it reversed the district court by holding that Oracle’s organization of its Java libraries was a copyrightable work of authorship, and remanded the case back to the district court for trial. The district court then held a full jury trial on the question of whether Google had infringed that copyright; the jury found no infringement because Google’s use of the hierarchical structure constituted a “fair use.” Once again, on appeal, the Federal Circuit reversed. That decision, too, for reasons I won’t go into here [see here and here if you’re interested], has little to recommend it.

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“Come And Take It”: Massive Virginia Gun Rights Rally Kicks Off In Richmond

“Come And Take It”: Massive Virginia Gun Rights Rally Kicks Off In Richmond

Virginia’s annual “Lobby Day” pro-second-amendment demonstration will be noticeably larger this year, thanks to the fact that the Democrats who control Virginia’s governorship and both houses in the General Assembly are plotting sweeping gun control legislation that could include red flag laws and a draconian assault weapons ban. 

As we reported over the weekend, tens of thousands of demonstrators are expected to show up this year, far outnumbering the typical turnout of the annual gathering.

In response, Gov. Ralph Northam has declared a state of emergency banning guns on capitol grounds and police have scoured the web looking for evidence of violent plots among the many conservative groups who planned to attend, including several armed militia groups. And the FBI made several arrests, as the state does everything in its power to try and prevent another Charlottesville.

Hours before the 11 am rally was set to begin, thousands of demonstrators were already gathering outside the capitol building in Richmond, many wearing camouflage and carrying messages of support for President Trump.

Members of the mainstream press, including the AP, who are covering the rally are already painting it as overwhelmingly white and male, in furtherance of their narrative that the event was organized by and for white supremacists.

Over the weekend, a reporter at NBC News decried the rally as a white supremacist event, before swiftly deleting their tweet, as the Daily Caller reminds us.

Teenage gun control activist David Hogg blasted the “white supremacists and nazis” who showed up to the event.

 

But as they prepared to march, some black Americans who have chosen to participate in the rally have taken umbrage at these unsubstantiated claims of white supremacy.

Though guns have been banned inside the capitol grounds thanks to a state of emergency declared by Gov. Ralph Northam, thousands waiting outside the cordoned-off area are open carrying and hopefully scaring the bejeezus out of any would-be counter protesters.

Even left-wing journalists covering the rally were surprised by the size of the crowd in the hours before the demonstration’s official start.

Though the governor and at least one top Republican asked ‘far-right’ groups (including militias) to stay away from the event, some armed groups paraded up and down outside the capitol.

Indeed, videos of armed groups flooded Twitter, accompanied by Liberal journalists whining about how these white militia men are better armed and therefore more than dangerous than the migrants and asylum seekers crossing the border.

Several pro-2A groups petitioned a judge to try and overturn Northam’s state of emergency banning guns on capitol grounds, but the judge refused, claiming the right to bear arms is “not without restrictions”.

Groups of demonstrators could be heard calling for Northam’s resignation. Some were caught on video chanting “Northam out.”

The arrest of alleged white supremacists planning to participate in the rally has also further inflamed tensions between the state government and pro-carry groups.

Though most of the demonstrators who chose to carry selected commonly used firearms, one man attracted attention and derision after bringing a 50 cal to the protest.

Monday’s rally was organized, as the ‘Lobby Day’ protest is every year, by the Virginia Citizens Defense League. The issue of gun control was a key factor in Virginia’s 2019 statewide elections, and Democrats running in the state attracted considerable support from donors across the country.

But the gun control push has sparked an unprecedented backlash, prompting dozens of municipalities to actively consider “2A sanctuary” legislation that would effectively invalidate state laws.

Kem Regik, a 20-year-old private security officer from northern Virginia, brought a white flag with a picture of a rifle captioned, “Come and take it.”

“I don’t like what the legislature is doing and I’m here to let them know that,” he said.

Jesse Lambert was dressed in mix of colonial era minute-man garb and cargo pants, with an colt rifle strapped across his back. He said he traveled from Louisiana to show opposition to the gun control bills. He said their efforts would unfairly punish law-abiding gun owners, particularly those who own AR-Style rifles.

“These are your average common people carrying firearms that are in common use,” he said.

For anyone who couldn’t make it to the rally, but would still like to experience a taste of what it’s like out there, Ruptly has posted a live feed. Watch below:


Tyler Durden

Mon, 01/20/2020 – 11:05

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China Coronavirus Outbreak Spreads; Hundreds Infected As Human-To-Human Transmission Confirmed

China Coronavirus Outbreak Spreads; Hundreds Infected As Human-To-Human Transmission Confirmed

Health officials in Wuhan, China reported 139 new cases of a new mystery virus over the weekend, now rapidly spreading to other provinces and surrounding countries, reported CNN.

As of Monday morning, three people have died from the pneumonia-like illness, and globally there have been more than 200 reported cases, noted Reuters

Beijing confirmed two cases of coronavirus Monday, while Guangdong health officials reported one case in Shenzhen – these are the first reports that the virus is quickly spreading from Wuhan, the epicenter. 

On Sunday, the World Health Organization (WHO) said the virus originated from a seafood/meat market in Wuhan, has likely spread through human-to-human transmission.

“It is clear that there is at least some human-to-human transmission from the evidence we have, but we don’t have clear evidence that shows the virus has acquired the capacity to transmit among humans easily,” said Takeshi Kasai, the WHO’s regional director for the western pacific, in an interview with Bloomberg TV on Monday. “We need more information to analyze that.”

There are significant concerns about a broader regional outbreak, reports Sunday warned the virus was detected outside China – two in Thailand and one in Japan. 

The South Korean Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (SKCDC) confirmed Monday that a 35-year-old woman arriving at Incheon International Airport from Wuhan tested positive for coronavirus.

“She was immediately separated for treatment in quarantine at a state-designated hospital,” the SKCDC said.

China’s National Health Commission confirmed Monday that the virus has occurred via human-to-human transmission. This has worried officials in the country and in surrounding countries ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday, in which millions of Chinese tourists are expected to travel across the region, could lead to a widespread outbreak of the virus. 

More than 7 million Chinese traveled overseas last year during the holiday season.

“I believe Chinese tourists will bring the virus to many other countries in Asia in the coming days, due to their overseas travels during the Lunar New Year holiday,” Professor David Hui Shu-Cheong, a respiratory expert at the Chinese University of Hong Kong, told CNN Monday.

Neil Ferguson of Imperial College London warned late last week that upwards of 1,700 in Wuhan had been infected with the virus.

Airports in Singapore and Hong Kong have been screening passengers from Wuhan, while three US airports (San Francisco, Los Angeles, and New York) announced similar measures last week.

Investors on Monday dumped Chinese airline and casino stocks over fears a widespread outbreak of the virus could lead to lower holiday traffic.

Air China plunged 7.5% in Hong Kong to a one-month low, and China Southern Airlines and China Eastern Airlines were both down at least 3%.

Macau gaming stocks dropped by 4%, the most since last August, with SJM Holdings down 5.6% and Sands China -5%. 

Shares of duty-free store operator Dufry fell nearly 7% on Monday over concerns the spread of the virus could lead to decreased air travel. 

Mandy Jia, an analyst at SWS, told Bloomberg that investors sold casino stocks because the outbreak of the virus could lead to depressed holiday traffic.

If China and other Asian countries fail to control the spread of the virus during the upcoming holiday season, and a broader outbreak is seen, this could be a risk-off event for global equity markets. 


Tyler Durden

Mon, 01/20/2020 – 10:40

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Market Melt-Ups & Billionaire Backlash

Market Melt-Ups & Billionaire Backlash

Authored by Sven Henrich via NorthmanTrader.com,

There’s an old adage: There are two guarantees in life: Death and taxes. Let’s modernize this a bit shall we? While it’s true even the rich still die these days (for now), but taxes are already a debatable question. After all taxes for corporations and the rich have come down dramatically in recent years and gaming of tax codes is the professional obsession of myriads of full time lobbyists and accountants who have found and lobbied every which way for the ultra wealthy to  minimize tax exposure in tax havens, offshore accounts and clever deduction schemes.

No, the modernized version of the death and taxes adage has morphed into something more sinister:

There are two guarantees in life: The rich get obscenely rich, everybody else gets to carry ever more obscene public debt levels.

This week we again get to see an annual ritual: The rich and powerful meet in Davos (119 billionaires are attending) and they get to ravel in having gotten even richer versus the year before and obscenely so as easy money by central bankers have once again levitated the prices of the very assets disproportionally owned by the wealthy: Stocks.

Look, no reasonable person would argue that the super wealthy don’t deserve to be super wealthy if they create something amazing of value add. Jeff Bezos deserves to be rich because he’s created an amazing growth business. Bill Gates deserves to be rich because he’s created an amazing growth business. Nobody is or should be arguing that. That’s not the point here.

The point is that their wealth is so obscenely accelerating that most people can’t even comprehend it, the numbers so large they give little perspective of how vast the wealth inequality equation is skewed.

Concurrent with the annual Davos meeting Oxfam releases the latest stats each year and they do give perspective:

The wealth inequality equation is accelerating to fast that the super rich can’t help but get richer, even if they try to give all their wealth away.

Take Bill Gates, arguably the most philanthropic person on the planet, long retired from Microsoft is again one of the richest two people on the planet adding over $22.7B to his wealth in 2019 alone. Not bad for a retired guy.

The secret of course: Vast ownership in stocks, $MSFT being at the forefront of his holdings of course. Bill Gates has been selling $MSFT stocks for decades, but he’s got so many shares he can’t get rid of them apparently.

And Bill Gates recognizes there’s a problem calling for higher taxes on the super wealthy:

“the Microsoft founder pointed to the widening gap between the haves and have-nots — income inequality is at the highest level in a half-century — as reason to hike taxes on the rich.

“That’s why I’m for a tax system in which, if you have more money, you pay a higher percentage in taxes,” Gates wrote in a blog post on New Year’s Eve. “And I think the rich should pay more than they currently do, and that includes Melinda and me.”

Gates, who’s worth an estimated $114 billion after he added $22.7 billion to his fortune in 2019, according to Bloomberg’s Billionaires Index, proposed several steps to make the U.S. tax system “more fair.” Those included raising the capital gains tax “probably to the same level as taxes on labor.” In 2018, a single average worker in the U.S. faced a 29.6 percent tax burden on their pre-tax earnings, or about $17,596 in taxes, according to the Tax Foundation.”

But frankly one can currently very much doubt the political viability of such a proposition. For one the rich just got a nirvana in tax cuts:

To get any of that changed would require a radical shift in American politics. Yes we see rumblings from the Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warrens of the world, but they’re not even close to being elected or even nominated. Would pro business candidates such as Bloomberg or Biden be capable or willing to change the tax codes that have benefitted the political donor class for decades? As an academic question aside it’s not even a realistic question to ask as neither have won the presidency and may not. Republicans control the Senate and that ends the tax increase question dead in its tracks for the moment.

Besides, taxes are not the root cause of wealth inequality, they are just the icing on the cake. Bill Gates didn’t add $22.7B in wealth in 2019 because he saved on taxes. He added this much wealth as a result of stock markets again accelerating higher, not because of vast growth in market earnings, but because of multiple expansion driven by easy central bank policies.

The general public has no clue how central banks work, they don’t understand the policies that are driving the wealth inequality equation. But they see the rich getting richer while the debt burdens that they shoulder are increasing year after year:

“The world’s already huge debt load smashed the record for the highest debt-to-GDP ratio before 2019 was even over.

In fact, it broke that record in the first nine months of last year. Global debt, which comprises borrowings from households, governments and companies, grew by $9 trillion to nearly $253 trillion during that period, according to the Institute of International Finance.

That puts the global debt-to-GDP ratio at 322%……..Such massive worldwide debt is a real risk for the global economy, especially because the IIF expects levels to rise even further in 2020.

“Spurred by low interest rates and loose financial conditions, we estimate that total global debt will exceed $257 trillion” in the first quarter of 2020, the IIF said.

The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates three times last year, and the European Central Bank’s benchmark rate is still at its post-financial crisis lows.”

See here’s the real dynamic: In a world of measured low inflation and weak wage growth easy central bank money creates vast price inflation in the assets owned by the few making the rich richer, but also enables the taking on ever higher debt burdens leaving everyone else to foot the ultimate bill.

There are two guarantees in life: The rich get obscenely rich, everybody else gets to carry ever more obscene public debt levels.

That is the measured outcome of the central bank easy money dynamic that has been with us now for decades, but has taken on new obscene forms in the past 10 years with absolutely no end in sight.

This is the dynamic that has to change or face a building of an unprecedented public backlash. This is impossible you say? Why?

Hoping for raising taxes on the rich is squabbling for the scraps from Longshank’s table. It’s missing the root causes. For true change the central banking cartel control over the wealth inequality equation must not only be acknowledged (which they refuse to do), but it needs to be dramatically altered.

There’s of course a massive problem with that very proposition. What happens when that dynamic changes and asset prices collapse and wealth inequality takes on a more traditional form? The global economy, so depend on easy money and cheap debt would face a deep recession, a depression even, and the non wealthy would be the first to get hit, losing their jobs, facing default on their loans and plummeting real estate prices.

We’ve already seen the end of this movie:

In the end nothing changes. The world is trapped in a cheap money fueled high debt cycle and the rich will keep getting richer and the plebs will end up footing the bill.

The big practical question for investors to consider is this: With the ever more recognized dynamics of wealth inequality result in a political rebellion first, one that changes the regulatory and tax outlook in the years to come?

I guess we’ll find out more on November 3rd. In the meantime we get to see Davos unfold in usual fashion, lots of words with little action, and then a very contentious presidential election process in 2020. Politics are inherently unpredictable, especially when elections are driven by strongly held emotions. If these emotions gain traction on the wealth inequality front watch for signs of building backlash for such signs could go a long way to reduce future multiples, multiples that are currently pricing in nothing but perfection making them particularly vulnerable to unexpected backlash.

*  *  *

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Tyler Durden

Mon, 01/20/2020 – 10:15

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2G3OcZ8 Tyler Durden