Will You Be Richer Or Poorer? Profit, Power, & AI In A Traumatized World

Will You Be Richer Or Poorer? Profit, Power, & AI In A Traumatized World

Authored by Adam Taggart via PeakProsperity.com,

Much of what we truly value is at risk…

Prolific and exceptionally perceptive author Charles Hugh Smith returns to discuss the insights in his just-launched book Will You Be Richer Or Poorer? Profit, Power & AI in a Traumatized World (the first chapter of which can be read for free here)

The current narrative that our standard of living is not only the best it has been in human history, but thanks to modern technology, is now improving at an accelerating rate.

Smith turns this belief on its head, pointing out the many and various ways — many of them “intangible” and not currently measured in dollars — the human condition is fast worsening. Health, purpose, social connection, civil liberties, access to natural resources, career mobility; these are but a few examples.

And technology is actually fast sending us down a darker path. One that empowers the central state, decimates jobs, destroys privacy, and has created today’s “landfill economy”.

I’ve written on these big, long dynamics of cycles, where there’s not just economic cycles or business cycles, but also social cycles where people find fewer reasons to cooperate with each other and society is fragmented. They often are associated with inflation or high unemployment, a decay of the real economy, resources becoming scarce and expensive, and so on.

Well, we’re clearly in that cycle — a Kondratieff winter, a Fourth Turning, one of Peter Turchin’s long cycles. And it’s only beginning.

Things are not going to resolve themselves quickly. There’s going to be a reset or a reckoning where we’re going to have to downsize and live within our means, and find some new social structures that are sustainable. It’s not just a physical, material world adjustment where we have to use less energy and fewer resources, we’ll also have to psychologically change. To not fear the changes ahead, but find ways to step into them positively.

Starting by trying to calculate the value of all the capital that we don’t measure is a very powerful first step. Realizing that you have all these forms of intangible capital that no one taught us to measure–or even recognize– is a very powerful process psychologically. If you start trying to prioritize the forms of capital that are important to you, it’s a kind of psychoanalysis because you really have to dig down into yourself and ask, “What forms of capital do I have that I can invest in another way of living, another livelihood, another form of community?”

There’s always going to be trade-offs. You’re not going to be able to get rich speculating in the stock and bond markets–and run a farm, and build a community. You’re going to have to give stuff up. You’re going to have to sacrifice some things in order to get what’s really fulfilling to you.

That’s wrenching in and of itself, but what’s worse is when people wait until bad things happen and then they realize the trade-offs have been imposed on them. Like they eat a highly-processed food diet, and they have a heart attack, and then they suddenly realize, “Wow, I’m going to die if I don’t change.” Or you get fired from your job or your corporation gets rid of your entire division. Then you’re forced to look at a different lifestyle and a different livelihood.

But we really do have the power to make those changes before catastrophe strikes.

I’m actually trying to deliver a positive message:  that anyone can do this. You may not be able to revolutionize your life in one fell swoop; but you can certainly make progress towards what’s important, and get busy building and accumulating the capital that truly is meaningful to you.

Click the play button below to listen to Chris’ interview with Charles Hugh Smith (51m:20s).


Tyler Durden

Fri, 10/25/2019 – 15:20

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Judge Says Cops Need Qualified Immunity To ‘Stop Mass Shootings’

Judge James C. Ho of the Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals offered a novel theory this week: “If we want to stop mass shootings, we should stop punishing police officers who put their lives on the line to prevent them.”

Fortunately, a majority of judges hearing the case didn’t agree.

The story begins in 2013, when sheriff’s deputies in Kaufman County, Texas, responded to reports of a man terrorizing a neighborhood by kicking mailboxes, pointing a gun at resident’s houses, and yelling, “I’m just trying to get back what’s mine.” One complainant stated that there was a man “walking up and down the street, screaming and firing a gun.”

Upon arriving at the scene, Officers Gabriel Hinojosa and Matthew Hinds, a defendant in the suit, stated that they encountered a black male wearing a brown shirt; he allegedly fired one round at the officers before ducking out of sight on two occasions. Then Gabriel Winzer, wearing a blue shirt, allegedly “emerged from behind a house and biked toward the officers,” Ho writes, prompting them to open fire.

Winzer retreated. He was found several minutes later in his father’s backyard with four gunshot wounds to his chest, shoulder, and upper back. His dad was with him, “trying to comfort and revive him.” As Winzer lay dying, officers attempted to handcuff him, but he resisted, so they tased him. Only then were paramedics allowed to enter the scene, where he was pronounced dead shortly thereafter.

Winzer was 25 years old. He was mentally handicapped. And he probably wasn’t the man terrorizing the neighborhood.

Ho’d dissent defends the officers fiercely, disregarding all evidence that contradicts the idea that Winzer was guilty. So he mentions that Winzer’s father had several firearms in his home, but he omits the fact that Kaufman County’s own sheriff confirmed that a gun was never found on Winzer. He also ignores the fact that the officers themselves say the man who fired at them was dressed differently. And he skips over an implausible part of their testimony—the part where Winzer “brought his hand gun to a firing position” while riding a bicycle.

“It is unknown how many lives were saved by these deputies on April 27, 2013,” writes Ho. “What is known, however, is that Kaufman County will now stand trial for their potentially life-saving actions—and that its taxpayers, including those who will forever be traumatized by Winzer’s acts of terror, will pick up the tab for any judgment.”

The particulars of the case aside, Ho’s support for the officers rests on the unfortunate legal doctrine of qualified immunity. This holds that public servants can violate someone’s constitutional rights without fear of civil suits if those rights have not been “clearly established” by previous case law. In the case before the court, the county argued that the officers did not breach Winzer’s Fourth Amendment rights because they had “probable cause” to think Winzer “posed a threat of serious bodily harm.”

Ho asserts that qualified immunity is an imperative to protecting the public; without it, he implies, violence will proliferate, because officers will be too afraid to use lethal force. In reality, the contrary is true. Time and time again, civil servants—namely police officers—have used qualified immunity to avoid accountability for their outrageous, and oftentimes violent, actions.

Consider Corbitt v. Vickers, in which the 11th Circuit gave qualified immunity to a police officer who shot a 10-year-old boy in the knee as the cop was trying to shoot the family’s nonthreatening dog. Although the officer faced no apparent threat, the court ruled that he did not infringe on anyone’s constitutional rights because he meant to shoot the dog, not the child. The family was denied compensation for their medical bills.

Or take Jessop v. City of Fresno, in which the 9th Circuit granted qualified immunity to two officers who allegedly stole $226,380 while conducting a search warrant. The court acknowledged that “the City Officers ought to have recognized that the alleged theft was morally wrong,” but it ruled that they “did not have clear notice” that stealing the property violated the Constitution.

The list of abuses goes on, but it does not seem to have moved Ho. Fortunately, the majority disagreed, and rejected the county’s request for qualified immunity.

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Pentagon Confirms: Tanks & Additional US Forces To Deploy At Syrian Oil Fields

Pentagon Confirms: Tanks & Additional US Forces To Deploy At Syrian Oil Fields

Less than 30 minutes after President Trump tweeted early Friday, “Our soldiers have left and are leaving Syria for other places, then…COMING HOME!” — Defense Secretary Mark Esper confirmed prior reports that the Pentagon will indeed leave behind a small military presence to include “mechanized forces” at “the oil fields”.

As we reported yesterday per a WSJ report, the plan is likely to include some 500 troops stationed at the major oil fields east of the Euphrates, and sending dozens of battle tanks and other equipment to protect them. So perhaps merely some troops are actually coming home, while the tanks are moving in

To be expected, the justification Esper gave is focused on the perpetual “threat” of a reconstituted Islamic State. “We are now taking some actions… to strengthen our position at Deir al zor, to ensure that we can deny ISIS access to the oil fields,” Esper told reporters at a briefing. “We are reinforcing that position, it will include some mechanized forces,” Esper said. Like Osama bin Laden after 9/11, ISIS is the bogeyman that keeps on giving, conveniently used as an excuse for the Pentagon to never leave the region, apparently.

US mechanized unit, Army file image. 

Trump is clearly bending to the demands of his generals, who not only want to leave the Syrian Kurds a major bargaining chip to play in dealing with Assad, but continued control over Syria’s domestic energy resources can be used by Washington as potential leverage in future negotiations over Syria.

It’s also perhaps to deflect the growing mainstream media and Democratic criticism (along with some key Republican allies) that Trump has supposedly “handed the Middle East to Russia”. It further fits with Trump’s Thursday tweet, declaring:

“We will NEVER let a reconstituted ISIS have those fields!”

Like with prior declarations of Trump expressing desire to leave Syria in past years, notably in early 2018, the immediate fierce bipartisan backlash in both Congress and the media (not to mention the ‘deep state’) typically results in a slow walk back of the policy, eventually to the point that nothing actually changes regarding Syria

Of this latest backlash and Trump’s “softening” the original withdrawal plans, Reuters describes

Trump has been softening his pullout plans for Syria after a backlash from Congress, including among key Republicans, who say he enabled a long-threatened Turkish incursion against Kurdish forces in Syria who had been America’s top allies in the battle against Islamic State.

And yet all of this is happening as Russia is actually bolstering its forces in Syria, specifically sending about 300 new military police to the northeast, taking over areas which had a prior US special forces presence. 

Early this week Kremlin officials condemned looming US plans to ‘secure’ the oil fields, saying Syria’s natural resources belong only to the legitimate government in Damascus

So again it appears that after all of the hype, and constant statements of “we’re bringing the troops home” — we are left with a few hundred US troops shifted to western Iraq, and tanks going in


Tyler Durden

Fri, 10/25/2019 – 15:05

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Judge Says Cops Need Qualified Immunity To ‘Stop Mass Shootings’

Judge James C. Ho of the Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals offered a novel theory this week: “If we want to stop mass shootings, we should stop punishing police officers who put their lives on the line to prevent them.”

Fortunately, a majority of judges hearing the case didn’t agree.

The story begins in 2013, when sheriff’s deputies in Kaufman County, Texas, responded to reports of a man terrorizing a neighborhood by kicking mailboxes, pointing a gun at resident’s houses, and yelling, “I’m just trying to get back what’s mine.” One complainant stated that there was a man “walking up and down the street, screaming and firing a gun.”

Upon arriving at the scene, Officers Gabriel Hinojosa and Matthew Hinds, a defendant in the suit, stated that they encountered a black male wearing a brown shirt; he allegedly fired one round at the officers before ducking out of sight on two occasions. Then Gabriel Winzer, wearing a blue shirt, allegedly “emerged from behind a house and biked toward the officers,” Ho writes, prompting them to open fire.

Winzer retreated. He was found several minutes later in his father’s backyard with four gunshot wounds to his chest, shoulder, and upper back. His dad was with him, “trying to comfort and revive him.” As Winzer lay dying, officers attempted to handcuff him, but he resisted, so they tased him. Only then were paramedics allowed to enter the scene, where he was pronounced dead shortly thereafter.

Winzer was 25 years old. He was mentally handicapped. And he probably wasn’t the man terrorizing the neighborhood.

Ho’d dissent defends the officers fiercely, disregarding all evidence that contradicts the idea that Winzer was guilty. So he mentions that Winzer’s father had several firearms in his home, but he omits the fact that Kaufman County’s own sheriff confirmed that a gun was never found on Winzer. He also ignores the fact that the officers themselves say the man who fired at them was dressed differently. And he skips over an implausible part of their testimony—the part where Winzer “brought his hand gun to a firing position” while riding a bicycle.

“It is unknown how many lives were saved by these deputies on April 27, 2013,” writes Ho. “What is known, however, is that Kaufman County will now stand trial for their potentially life-saving actions—and that its taxpayers, including those who will forever be traumatized by Winzer’s acts of terror, will pick up the tab for any judgment.”

The particulars of the case aside, Ho’s support for the officers rests on the unfortunate legal doctrine of qualified immunity. This holds that public servants can violate someone’s constitutional rights without fear of civil suits if those rights have not been “clearly established” by previous case law. In the case before the court, the county argued that the officers did not breach Winzer’s Fourth Amendment rights because they had “probable cause” to think Winzer “posed a threat of serious bodily harm.”

Ho asserts that qualified immunity is an imperative to protecting the public; without it, he implies, violence will proliferate, because officers will be too afraid to use lethal force. In reality, the contrary is true. Time and time again, civil servants—namely police officers—have used qualified immunity to avoid accountability for their outrageous, and oftentimes violent, actions.

Consider Corbitt v. Vickers, in which the 11th Circuit gave qualified immunity to a police officer who shot a 10-year-old boy in the knee as the cop was trying to shoot the family’s nonthreatening dog. Although the officer faced no apparent threat, the court ruled that he did not infringe on anyone’s constitutional rights because he meant to shoot the dog, not the child. The family was denied compensation for their medical bills.

Or take Jessop v. City of Fresno, in which the 9th Circuit granted qualified immunity to two officers who allegedly stole $226,380 while conducting a search warrant. The court acknowledged that “the City Officers ought to have recognized that the alleged theft was morally wrong,” but it ruled that they “did not have clear notice” that stealing the property violated the Constitution.

The list of abuses goes on, but it does not seem to have moved Ho. Fortunately, the majority disagreed, and rejected the county’s request for qualified immunity.

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US Budget Deificit Hits $984 Billion In Fiscal 2019, Up $205 Billion In One Year

US Budget Deificit Hits $984 Billion In Fiscal 2019, Up $205 Billion In One Year

With the cumulative budget deficit for the first 11 months of fiscal 2019 already hitting $1.067 trillion as of August 31, the only question on deficit watchers’ minds was whether after the final month in the fiscal year, which ends on Sept 30, the US deficit would be greater or less than $1 trillion.

At 2pm today we got the answer, when the US Treasury reported that thanks to a $82.8 billion surplus in September, the full year deficit for fiscal 2019 was shy of $1 trillion, but just barely, printing at $984.4 billion, a whopping $205 billion, or 26.4% increase, to the $779 billion deficit hit in 2018.

This was $24 billion more than the CBO’s own forecast in August, which predicted a 2019 deficit of $960BN.

As shown below, the $83 billion monthly surplus was thanks to $374 billion in receipts, offsetting $291 billion in outlays. The biggest source of income were income taxes ($183BN), social security and retirement ($104BN), and corporate income taxes ($60BN), while the biggest outlays were Social Security ($88BN), Defense spending ($55BN), healthcare ($53BN), and Medicare ($26BN).

That said, the fact that the US failed to hit a $1 trillion deficit in 2019 merely means that the D-Day has been postponed for one year, as most analyst forecasts and government budgets anticipate will happen in 2020.

 


Tyler Durden

Fri, 10/25/2019 – 14:45

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The NYPD Officer Fired for Choking Eric Garner Is Suing To Get His Job Back

The New York Police Department officer fired in August for the chokehold that led to the death of Eric Garner is now suing to get his job back.

Former NYPD officer Daniel Pantaleo was captured on video five years ago confronting Garner on Staten Island. Pantaleo and his fellow officers approached Garner, who they suspected of selling “loosies,” or individual, untaxed cigarettes. Garner was uncooperative when Pantaleo tried to arrest and handcuff him, and in the ensuing struggle, officers pulled Garner to the ground, and Pantaleo put him in a chokehold. Garner said multiple times “I can’t breathe” before losing consciousness. After being transported to a hospital, he was pronounced dead.

The New York Office of Chief Medical Examiner ruled Garner’s death a homicide, a result of the compression of his neck and chest in the confrontation. The district attorney’s office for Richmond County turned to a grand jury for possible charges against Pantaleo, but the grand jury declined to indict him.

New York waited to see if the Department of Justice wanted to file federal civil rights charges against Pantaleo. Ultimately, the Justice Department declined to act. Earlier this year Pantaleo, finally faced an administrative trial to determine what discipline, if any, he should face as a cop. The administrative judge found Pantaleo guilty in August of “recklessly causing physical injury” and recommended Pantaleo’s dismissal. NYPD Commissioner James P. O’Neill agreed with the recommendation and terminated him.

But even after five years and outrage from people across the political spectrum, nearly all whom saw Garner’s death as a wholly unnecessary overreaction by law enforcement, the saga is not over. Pantaleo has hired attorney Stuart London of Worth, Longworth, and London, a Manhattan firm specializing in representing police officers, and is now suing to get his job back.

I contacted London’s office to request a copy of the lawsuit, but have not yet received a response. According to the New York Post, the lawsuit, which was filed in Manhattan civil court on Wednesday, argues that Pantaleo’s firing was “arbitrary and capricious.” London told the Post that he thinks the recommendation to fire Pantaleo was “reckless.” Was that decision as reckless as Pantaleo’s decision to choke a man for selling loose cigarettes?

It’s hard to imagine the NYPD putting Pantaleo back on patrol even if they were forced to rehire him. Every arrest or physical altercation between Pantaleo and any suspect is another lawsuit waiting to happen, and New York spent $230 million last year settling police lawsuits.

But getting back on a patrol route might not be the point of the lawsuit. The New York Post notes that the circumstances of Pantaleo’s firing mean he won’t get a full pension, but he will be able to recoup any money he paid into the fund during his time there. Getting put back on the force, even in a desk job, would put him back on track for a publicly-funded retirement plan were he to eventually retire on his own terms. The Post notes Pantaleo was making $85,292 a year as a cop before getting fired.

The citizens of New York have no obligation to bankroll officers who have abused their power. Pantaleo had his chance to be a good cop and retire on the taxpayer dime.

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Beware The Sound Of Shoes Dropping In The Night

Beware The Sound Of Shoes Dropping In The Night

Authored by James Howard Kunstler via Kunstler.com,

It was interesting to watch the Cable News divas go incandescent under the glare of their own gaslight late yesterday when they received the unpleasant news that the Barr & Durham “review” of RussiaGate had been officially upgraded to a “criminal investigation.”

Rachel Maddow’s trademark pouty-face got a workout as she strained to imagine “…what the thing is that Durham might be looking into.” Yes, that’s a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma, all right… with a sputtering fuse sticking out of it. Welcome to the Wile E. Coyote Lookalike Club, Rache. You’ll have a lot of competition when the Sunday morning news-chat shows rev up.

Minutes later, the answer dawned on her:

“It [the thing] follows the wildest conspiracy theories from Fox News!”

You’d think that someone who invested two-plus years of her life in the Mueller report, which blew up in her pouty-face last spring, might have felt a twinge of journalistic curiosity as to the sum-and-substance of the thing. But no, she just hauled on-screen RussiaGate intriguer David Laufman, a former DOJ lawyer who ran the agency’s CounterIntel and Export Control desk during the RussiaGate years, and also helped oversee the botched Hillary Clinton private email server probe.

“They have this theory,” Rachel said, “that maybe Russia didn’t interfere in the election….”

“It’s preposterous,” said Laufman, all lawyered up and ready to draw a number and take a seat for his own grand jury testimony.

Over in the locked ward of CNN, Andy Cooper and Jeff Toobin attempted to digest the criminal investigation news as if someone had ordered in a platter of shit sandwiches for the green room just before air-time. Toobin pretended to not know exactly who the mysterious Joseph Misfud was, and struggled to even pronounce his name: “…Mifsood? Misfood…? You mean the Italian professor?” No Jeff, the guy employed by several “friendly” foreign intelligence agencies, and the CIA, to sandbag Trump campaign advisor George Papadopoulos, and failed. I guess when you’re at the beating heart of TV news, you don’t have to actually follow any of the stories reported outside your locked ward, and maybe entertain a few angles outside your purview, i.e. your range of thought and experience.

Next Andy hauled onscreen former Director of National Intelligence James Clapper (now a paid CNN “contributor”) to finesse a distinction between the “overall investigation of the Russian interference” or “the counterintelligence investigation that was launched by the FBI.” Consider that Mr. Clapper was right in the middle between the CIA and the FBI. Since he is known to be a friend of Mr. Comey’s and a not-friend of Mr. Brennan’s one can easily see which way Mr. Clapper is tilting. One can also see the circular firing squad that this is a setup for. And, of course, Mr. Clapper himself will be a subject in Mr. Durham’s criminal case proceedings. I predict October will be the last month that Mr. Clapper draws a CNN paycheck — as he hunkers down with his attorneys awaiting the subpoena with his name on it.

The New York Times story on this turn of events Friday morning is a lame attempt to rescue former FBI Director Jim Comey by pinning the blame for RussiaGate on the CIA, shoving CIA John Brennan under the bus. The Times report says: “Mr. Durham has also asked whether C.I.A. officials might have somehow tricked the F.B.I. into opening the Russia investigation.” There’s the next narrative for you. Expect to hear this incessantly well into 2020.

I wonder if there is any way to hold the errand boys-and-girls in the news media accountable for their roles as handmaidens in what will be eventually known as a seditious coup to overthrow a president. We do enjoy freedom of the press in this land, but I can see how these birds merit charges as unindicted co-conspirators in the affair. One wonders if the various boards of directors of the newspaper and cable news outfits might seek to salvage their self-respect by firing the executives who allowed it happen. If anything might be salutary in the outcome of this hot mess, it would be a return to respectability of the news media.

As for impeachment, ringmaster Rep. Adam Schiff is surely steaming straight into his own historic Joe McCarthy moment when somebody of incontestable standing denounces him as a fraud and a scoundrel… and the mysterious workings of nonlinear behavior tips the political mob past a criticality threshold, shifting the weight of consensus out of darkness and madness. It has happened before in history. Two centuries before Joe McCarthy, the French national assembly suddenly turned on the Jacobins Robespierre and St. Just after their orgy of beheading 17,000 enemies. The two were quickly dispatched themselves to the awe of their beloved guillotine and the Jacobin faction was not heard of again —until recently in America, where it first infected the Universities and then sickened the polity at large almost unto death.


Tyler Durden

Fri, 10/25/2019 – 14:26

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The NYPD Officer Fired for Choking Eric Garner Is Suing To Get His Job Back

The New York Police Department officer fired in August for the chokehold that led to the death of Eric Garner is now suing to get his job back.

Former NYPD officer Daniel Pantaleo was captured on video five years ago confronting Garner on Staten Island. Pantaleo and his fellow officers approached Garner, who they suspected of selling “loosies,” or individual, untaxed cigarettes. Garner was uncooperative when Pantaleo tried to arrest and handcuff him, and in the ensuing struggle, officers pulled Garner to the ground, and Pantaleo put him in a chokehold. Garner said multiple times “I can’t breathe” before losing consciousness. After being transported to a hospital, he was pronounced dead.

The New York Office of Chief Medical Examiner ruled Garner’s death a homicide, a result of the compression of his neck and chest in the confrontation. The district attorney’s office for Richmond County turned to a grand jury for possible charges against Pantaleo, but the grand jury declined to indict him.

New York waited to see if the Department of Justice wanted to file federal civil rights charges against Pantaleo. Ultimately, the Justice Department declined to act. Earlier this year Pantaleo, finally faced an administrative trial to determine what discipline, if any, he should face as a cop. The administrative judge found Pantaleo guilty in August of “recklessly causing physical injury” and recommended Pantaleo’s dismissal. NYPD Commissioner James P. O’Neill agreed with the recommendation and terminated him.

But even after five years and outrage from people across the political spectrum, nearly all whom saw Garner’s death as a wholly unnecessary overreaction by law enforcement, the saga is not over. Pantaleo has hired attorney Stuart London of Worth, Longworth, and London, a Manhattan firm specializing in representing police officers, and is now suing to get his job back.

I contacted London’s office to request a copy of the lawsuit, but have not yet received a response. According to the New York Post, the lawsuit, which was filed in Manhattan civil court on Wednesday, argues that Pantaleo’s firing was “arbitrary and capricious.” London told the Post that he thinks the recommendation to fire Pantaleo was “reckless.” Was that decision as reckless as Pantaleo’s decision to choke a man for selling loose cigarettes?

It’s hard to imagine the NYPD putting Pantaleo back on patrol even if they were forced to rehire him. Every arrest or physical altercation between Pantaleo and any suspect is another lawsuit waiting to happen, and New York spent $230 million last year settling police lawsuits.

But getting back on a patrol route might not be the point of the lawsuit. The New York Post notes that the circumstances of Pantaleo’s firing mean he won’t get a full pension, but he will be able to recoup any money he paid into the fund during his time there. Getting put back on the force, even in a desk job, would put him back on track for a publicly-funded retirement plan were he to eventually retire on his own terms. The Post notes Pantaleo was making $85,292 a year as a cop before getting fired.

The citizens of New York have no obligation to bankroll officers who have abused their power. Pantaleo had his chance to be a good cop and retire on the taxpayer dime.

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The Belated Approval of a Harm-Reduction Claim for Smokeless Tobacco Highlights the Potentially Deadly Impact of FDA Censorship

This week the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) finally granted a snus manufacturer permission to tell the truth about this Swedish version of oral snuff, which is far less hazardous than cigarettes and contains lower levels of carcinogens than other forms of smokeless tobacco. The Stockholm-based company Swedish Match will henceforth be allowed to display the following statement on packages of its General brand snus sold in the United States: “Using General Snus instead of cigarettes puts you at a lower risk of mouth cancer, heart disease, lung cancer, stroke, emphysema, and chronic bronchitis.”

In the decade since Congress gave the FDA authority over tobacco, this is the first time the agency has allowed such a “modified risk” claim for any product. The FDA says its approval of Swedish Match’s claim “demonstrates the viability of the pathway for companies to market specific tobacco products as less harmful to consumers.” But the arduous process leading to that decision also demonstrates the potentially deadly consequences of the FDA’s censorship.

“Adult smokers deserve the full truth about these products and other reduced-risk tobacco and nicotine products,” says Gregory Conley, president of the American Vaping Association. “The FDA’s claim that this pathway is viable should come with a giant asterisk explaining just how much time and how many millions of dollars Swedish Match had to spend to get permission to tell the truth to consumers.”

It has been clear for decades that smokers can dramatically reduce the health risks they face by switching from cigarettes to smokeless tobacco. The oral pathologist Brad Rodu, now a professor of medicine at the University of Louisville, published a book making that case back in 1995.

Rodu estimates that “modern smokeless products” are “98 percent less harmful than cigarettes.” Snus, which unlike most American smokeless tobacco products is steam-pasteurized rather than flue-cured, is especially appealing as a harm-reducing alternative to cigarettes. The FDA notes that “the levels of two potent carcinogens in smokeless tobacco products called NNN and NNK are lower in these General snus products than [in] the vast majority of smokeless tobacco products on the U.S. market.”

Until this week, however, Swedish Match was not allowed to promote its products as less dangerous than cigarettes in the United States, and even now the FDA-approved claim understates the health advantages of snus. Rodu notes that the statement “refers to ‘lower’ risk of disease, which implies that risks are still present, when, in fact, snus has no risk for mouth cancer, heart disease, lung cancer, stroke, emphysema, and chronic bronchitis.”

Why did this modest step take so long? Notwithstanding the First Amendment, even truthful, nonmisleading statements about the relative hazards of tobacco products are illegal until they have the FDA’s blessing. And under the Family Smoking Prevention and Tobacco Control Act, the 2009 law that charged the FDA with regulating tobacco products, manufacturers have to persuade the agency that a modified-risk claim is not only accurate but will “benefit the health of the population as a whole, taking into account both users of tobacco products and persons who do not currently use tobacco products.”

That “population as a whole” standard means it’s not enough to demonstrate that a product is significantly less dangerous than cigarettes. The FDA is also supposed to consider factors such as whether a modified-risk claim might prolong tobacco use among people who otherwise would have quit entirely or encourage consumption by people who otherwise never would have used tobacco.

All that pondering takes time and requires additional evidence, beyond a straightforward comparison of health risks. “The available evidence does not demonstrate significant youth initiation of these products,” the FDA says, “and evidence submitted by the company also found low levels of intentions to buy the product among non-users of tobacco (including young adults) and, importantly, found that the inclusion of the modified risk claim did not affect these intentions.”

Swedish Match submitted modified-risk applications for 10 varieties of its snus in June 2014. Even getting to that point required a great deal of work: The original applications consisted of 813 files totaling 1.7 gigabytes of data. In July 2015 the company filed amendments to its applications totaling another 1.4 GB. It responded to FDA inquiries with further amendments in September 2018, November 2018, and January 2019. And now, more than five years after the original applications, Swedish Match is legally allowed to say something that Brad Rodu has been pointing out for decades: Snus poses “a lower risk” than cigarettes.

I asked Patrik Hildingsson, vice president for communication and public affairs at Swedish Match, how much this process cost in terms of money and man-hours. “I have also been thinking about the resources put into this process, human capital and monetary cost etc.,” he wrote in an email. “But the truth is that it has not been tracked in a way that makes a fair assessment possible.”

That’s an admirably honest reply. But it seems fair to say that the cost of complying with the FDA’s requirements would deter many applicants without the resources of Swedish Match, which reported revenue of nearly 13 billion Swedish krona (about $1.3 billion) last year. Where does that leave, say, a small or medium-sized vaping company that wants to accurately advertise its products as less dangerous than conventional cigarettes?

The cost of obtaining the FDA’s permission to tell the truth can be measured in lives as well as dollars. Data compiled by Swedish Match show that Sweden, the only country in the European Union where snus is legally available, has by far the lowest smoking rate in the E.U. as well as the highest prevalence of ex-smokers and the lowest prevalence of tobacco-attributed mortality. Snus has been displacing cigarettes in Sweden since the late 1980s.

Norway, a non-E.U. country where snus is also legal, likewise has low rates of smoking and tobacco-related deaths. According to Swedish Match, snus accounted for 37 percent of Norway’s nicotine market in 2014, up from 5 percent in 1985. “During the last 15-20 years,” Hildingsson says, “Swedes used snus to quit smoking.” In Norway, he says, “they are not only quitting; they start with snus and do not move to cigarettes.” As a result, “the smoking drop rate is very, very fast.” Hildingsson predicts that “Norway will outperform Sweden in 3-4 years’ time.”

Americans may not take to snus quite like the Swedes and Norwegians have. But it’s inexcusable that the U.S. government has been actively obstructing these harm-reducing trends by suppressing accurate information about the relative hazards of snus and cigarettes. To the extent that such censorship has discouraged smokers from considering snus, the upshot has been more smoking-related disease and death, all in the name of promoting public health.

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The Belated Approval of a Harm-Reduction Claim for Smokeless Tobacco Highlights the Potentially Deadly Impact of FDA Censorship

This week the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) finally granted a snus manufacturer permission to tell the truth about this Swedish version of oral snuff, which is far less hazardous than cigarettes and contains lower levels of carcinogens than other forms of smokeless tobacco. The Stockholm-based company Swedish Match will henceforth be allowed to display the following statement on packages of its General brand snus sold in the United States: “Using General Snus instead of cigarettes puts you at a lower risk of mouth cancer, heart disease, lung cancer, stroke, emphysema, and chronic bronchitis.”

In the decade since Congress gave the FDA authority over tobacco, this is the first time the agency has allowed such a “modified risk” claim for any product. The FDA says its approval of Swedish Match’s claim “demonstrates the viability of the pathway for companies to market specific tobacco products as less harmful to consumers.” But the arduous process leading to that decision also demonstrates the potentially deadly consequences of the FDA’s censorship.

“Adult smokers deserve the full truth about these products and other reduced-risk tobacco and nicotine products,” says Gregory Conley, president of the American Vaping Association. “The FDA’s claim that this pathway is viable should come with a giant asterisk explaining just how much time and how many millions of dollars Swedish Match had to spend to get permission to tell the truth to consumers.”

It has been clear for decades that smokers can dramatically reduce the health risks they face by switching from cigarettes to smokeless tobacco. The oral pathologist Brad Rodu, now a professor of medicine at the University of Louisville, published a book making that case back in 1995.

Rodu estimates that “modern smokeless products” are “98 percent less harmful than cigarettes.” Snus, which unlike most American smokeless tobacco products is steam-pasteurized rather than flue-cured, is especially appealing as a harm-reducing alternative to cigarettes. The FDA notes that “the levels of two potent carcinogens in smokeless tobacco products called NNN and NNK are lower in these General snus products than [in] the vast majority of smokeless tobacco products on the U.S. market.”

Until this week, however, Swedish Match was not allowed to promote its products as less dangerous than cigarettes in the United States, and even now the FDA-approved claim understates the health advantages of snus. Rodu notes that the statement “refers to ‘lower’ risk of disease, which implies that risks are still present, when, in fact, snus has no risk for mouth cancer, heart disease, lung cancer, stroke, emphysema, and chronic bronchitis.”

Why did this modest step take so long? Notwithstanding the First Amendment, even truthful, nonmisleading statements about the relative hazards of tobacco products are illegal until they have the FDA’s blessing. And under the Family Smoking Prevention and Tobacco Control Act, the 2009 law that charged the FDA with regulating tobacco products, manufacturers have to persuade the agency that a modified-risk claim is not only accurate but will “benefit the health of the population as a whole, taking into account both users of tobacco products and persons who do not currently use tobacco products.”

That “population as a whole” standard means it’s not enough to demonstrate that a product is significantly less dangerous than cigarettes. The FDA is also supposed to consider factors such as whether a modified-risk claim might prolong tobacco use among people who otherwise would have quit entirely or encourage consumption by people who otherwise never would have used tobacco.

All that pondering takes time and requires additional evidence, beyond a straightforward comparison of health risks. “The available evidence does not demonstrate significant youth initiation of these products,” the FDA says, “and evidence submitted by the company also found low levels of intentions to buy the product among non-users of tobacco (including young adults) and, importantly, found that the inclusion of the modified risk claim did not affect these intentions.”

Swedish Match submitted modified-risk applications for 10 varieties of its snus in June 2014. Even getting to that point required a great deal of work: The original applications consisted of 813 files totaling 1.7 gigabytes of data. In July 2015 the company filed amendments to its applications totaling another 1.4 GB. It responded to FDA inquiries with further amendments in September 2018, November 2018, and January 2019. And now, more than five years after the original applications, Swedish Match is legally allowed to say something that Brad Rodu has been pointing out for decades: Snus poses “a lower risk” than cigarettes.

I asked Patrik Hildingsson, vice president for communication and public affairs at Swedish Match, how much this process cost in terms of money and man-hours. “I have also been thinking about the resources put into this process, human capital and monetary cost etc.,” he wrote in an email. “But the truth is that it has not been tracked in a way that makes a fair assessment possible.”

That’s an admirably honest reply. But it seems fair to say that the cost of complying with the FDA’s requirements would deter many applicants without the resources of Swedish Match, which reported revenue of nearly 13 billion Swedish krona (about $1.3 billion) last year. Where does that leave, say, a small or medium-sized vaping company that wants to accurately advertise its products as less dangerous than conventional cigarettes?

The cost of obtaining the FDA’s permission to tell the truth can be measured in lives as well as dollars. Data compiled by Swedish Match show that Sweden, the only country in the European Union where snus is legally available, has by far the lowest smoking rate in the E.U. as well as the highest prevalence of ex-smokers and the lowest prevalence of tobacco-attributed mortality. Snus has been displacing cigarettes in Sweden since the late 1980s.

Norway, a non-E.U. country where snus is also legal, likewise has low rates of smoking and tobacco-related deaths. According to Swedish Match, snus accounted for 37 percent of Norway’s nicotine market in 2014, up from 5 percent in 1985. “During the last 15-20 years,” Hildingsson says, “Swedes used snus to quit smoking.” In Norway, he says, “they are not only quitting; they start with snus and do not move to cigarettes.” As a result, “the smoking drop rate is very, very fast.” Hildingsson predicts that “Norway will outperform Sweden in 3-4 years’ time.”

Americans may not take to snus quite like the Swedes and Norwegians have. But it’s inexcusable that the U.S. government has been actively obstructing these harm-reducing trends by suppressing accurate information about the relative hazards of snus and cigarettes. To the extent that such censorship has discouraged smokers from considering snus, the upshot has been more smoking-related disease and death, all in the name of promoting public health.

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