Michael Flynn To Plead The Fifth, Will Decline Senate Subpoena

Confirming last week’s report that Michael Flynn will not comply with requests to testify before the Senate Intel Committee, moments ago AP reported that Flynn has indeed declined the subpoena and plans to officially invoke the Fifth Amendment sometime on Monday.

Furthermore, according to Dow Jones, Flynn is refusing to turn over documents that were subpoenaed by the Senate Intel Committee.

Flynn previously offered to testify before the Senate and House Intelligence committees in exchange for immunity, but neither committee accepted the offer.

Last week, Senate Intelligence Committee Chairman Richard Burr said that Flynn was “not cooperating” so far with the committee’s investigation, but that he hadn’t received a “definitive” answer on whether Flynn would testify.

As a reminder, also last week CNN reported that the FBI had first issued subpoenas relating to Flynn’s business records, so the ousted National Security Adviser is now at at the center of both investigations and at least for the time being, he is refusing to comply with the Congressional probe. And while pleading the Fifth is a popular legal tactic, especially for those who do not have apriori immunity from prosecution such as virtually the entire Clinton campaign in their FBI testimonies, it is largely an admission of guilt in the court of public opinion and will prompt a new round of question over just what Flynn is hiding.

Developing

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Libertarian Legal Scholars Reject Trump Judicial Nominee’s Views on 14th Amendment

One of President Donald Trump’s federal court nominees favors an interpretation of the 14th Amendment that libertarian legal scholars have roundly rejected.

Kevin Newsom, the former Alabama solicitor general recently nominated by President Trump to the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 11th Circuit, is the author of a January 2000 article in the Yale Law Journal in which he argues that the Supreme Court’s 1873 decision in The Slaughter-House Cases correctly held that the Privileges or Immunities Clause of the 14th Amendment offers zero protection for economic liberty. That view is hotly contested by libertarian constitutional experts.

At issue in The Slaughter-House Cases was a Louisiana statute that granted a private corporation a lucrative 25-year monopoly to operate a central slaughterhouse for the city of New Orleans. A group of local butchers challenged the law in federal court, arguing that the monopoly was a special-interest boondoggle that served no legitimate health or safety purpose and violated their fundamental rights to earn a living free from unnecessary government control. According to the butchers, the right to economic liberty was one of the privileges and immunities of U.S. citizenship recently secured against state abuse by the 1868 ratification of the 14th Amendment, which reads in part, “No State shall make or enforce any law which shall abridge the privileges or immunities of citizens of the United States.”

From the standpoint of constitutional text and history, the butchers had a strong argument. The debates over the framing and ratification of the 14th Amendment make it clear that the provision was originally understood to protect economic liberty. Indeed, according to the principal author of the Privileges or Immunities Clause, Republican Congressman John Bingham of Ohio, “the provisions of the Constitution guaranteeing rights, privileges, and immunities to citizens of the United States” includes “the constitutional liberty…to work in an honest calling and contribute by your toil in some sort to the support of yourself, to the support of your fellowmen, and to be secure in the enjoyment of the fruits of your toil.”

But the Supreme Court saw things differently. Adopting a posture of judicial deference, the Court ruled 5-4 in favor of the state legislature and effectively eliminated the Privileges or Immunities Clause from the Constitution. According to the majority opinion of Justice Samuel Miller, the Court had no business acting as “a perpetual censor upon all legislation of the States.” To rule otherwise, he said, would “fetter and degrade the State governments.” The Privileges or Immunities Clause basically offered no real protection at all, Miller insisted, except for a handful of mostly inconsequential federal rights, such as the right to access federal waterways. Slaughter-House rendered the clause toothless against virtually all state action.

Because Slaughter-House was the first case in which the Supreme Court interpreted the meaning of the new 14th Amendment, the ruling had a transformative impact on the future course of American law. Its significance cannot be easily overstated.

Today, a growing number of constitutional originalists, particularly those associated with the libertarian wing of the conservative legal movement, have concluded that Slaughter-House was wrong the day it was decided and therefore deserves to be confined or even overruled by the Supreme Court.

For example, according to Clint Bolick, the Institute for Justice co-founder who currently serves as an Arizona Supreme Court justice, Slaughter-House is “one of the worst decisions in American law.” In Bolick’s view, the ruling eviscerated “one of the most sacred and central rights of Americans: economic liberty, the right to pursue a business or occupation free from arbitrary or excessive government regulation.” Georgetown law professor Randy Barnett, one of the most influential originalist scholars at work today, has likewise concluded that Slaughter-House “ignored the original meaning” of the 14th Amendment.

To be sure, Slaughter-House has had its defenders, particularly among the school of legal conservatives who favor a more deferential judiciary. For example, the late Robert Bork, who famously maintained that, “in wide areas of life, majorities are entitled to rule, if they wish, simply because they are majorities,” insisted that Slaughter-House represented a “sound judicial instinct” and should be applauded as “a narrow victory for judicial moderation.” Along similar lines, Ken Blackwell of the Family Research Council, writing with Ken Klukowski of the American Civil Rights Union, has argued that “what’s so important about [Slaughter-House] is that there’s nothing in the Constitution about such an economic right.” If the case is ever overturned, the two have argued, “activist” judges might “use the Privileges or Immunities Clause to challenge state and local labor laws, commercial laws, and business regulations around the country.”

Kevin Newsom, Trump’s nominee for the 11th Circuit, falls in the Bork-Blackwell-Klukowski camp. In the Yale Law Journal, Newsom praised the Slaughter-House majority opinion for its “judicial restraint” and for its opposition to “the constitutionalization of laissez-faire economic theory.” When it comes to the “economic rights claimed by the butchers” in Slaughter-House, Newsom maintained, the Court was right to conclude that “the 14th Amendment did not safeguard [them] against state interference.”

Newsom’s views on the 14th Amendment thus put him directly at odds with the flourishing camp of libertarian-minded lawyers, judges, and scholars whose influence on the conservative legal movement has been on the upswing in recent years.

It remains to be seen if this clash of constitutional visions will play any role in Newsom’s confirmation hearings before the Senate Judiciary Committee.

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Bannon, Priebus Return To Washington As Trump Trip Continues

For Trump’s two main White House policy advisors (aside from Goldman Sachs, of course) chief of staff Reince Priebus and chief strategist Stephen Bannon, the confusion over the “orb” event may have been too great.

That, or perhaps there was another fallout between Trump and his two key advisors.

Whatever the reason, according to CNN, both Priebus and Bannon returned to Washington after just the first leg of Trump’s global tour, when the President concluded his visit to Saudi Arabia on Sunday.

“He was planning to come for the first stop and then head back for the budget roll out,” White House spokeswoman Sarah Huckabee Sanders said about the return. To avoid the perception of another breakdown in relations between Trump and the two men, White House officials told CNN that Bannon’s departure was also planned. A Trump adviser said Priebus wanted time to get ready for Trump’s return to the U.S.

To be sure, there is a lot of work to be done ahead of Trump’s return next weekend: the president is facing a series of growing controversies at home including the possible hiring of outside legal counsel in the Russia probe, the selection of a new FBI director, and the effort to pivot back to the President’s domestic agenda.

Furthermore, in the run-up to the trip, analysts noted it would be odd for the chief of staff to spend so many days traveling with the President. “I will say, I think it’s unusual for the chief of staff to go on a trip, particularly on a trip this long,” said Tamara Wittes, senior fellow at the Brookings Center for Middle East Policy, quoted by CNN.

“The chief of staff is usually more of a chief operating officer in the White House itself, and normally when your principal — whether it’s the president himself or the head of Cabinet agency — goes abroad, you have his deputy and those folks staying behind to help manage operations in his absence, and also to be that communications link between that principal who’s on the plane and the folks back home.”

To make a favorable impression on the Saudi king, Trump brought most of his advisers along on the trip, including Ivanka, Jared Kushner and his spokespeople. Only Mike Pence remained in the US, as did Trump counselor Kellyanne Conway.

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Trump in Saudi Arabia, Pence at Notre Dame, NASA Astronauts to Emergency Spacewalk: A.M. Links

  • President Trump was in Saudi Arabia, where he spoke about the need for all religions to combat Islamic extremism.
  • Vice President Mike Pence delivered the commencement address at Notre Dame, telling students to be “men and women of integrity and values,” dozens of whom walked out in protest.
  • The Congressional Budget Office is set to release its score of the GOP healthcare bill on Wednesday.
  • New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo is asking Trump for funding for improvements to Penn Station to avert a “summer of agony.”
  • The Pentagon is reportedly going to examine its ability to recruit transgendere people, according to a memo seen by Reuters.
  • North Korea says it has conducted another successful ballistics missile launch.
  • Two NASA astronauts on the International Space Station will conduct an emergency spacewalk to replace a failed computer.

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Coroner Says Everyone Should Avoid Energy Drinks, Which Kill at Random

Last week a South Carolina coroner blamed a teenager’s sudden death on caffeine-induced arrhythmia, prompting yet another burst of alarmist warnings about the dangers posed by energy drinks. As usual, the stories either glossed over or misrepresented the amount of caffeine these products contain compared to other, less controversial beverages.

Davis Cripe, a student at Spring Hill High School in Chapin, collapsed during art class on the afternoon of April 26 and was rushed to Palmetto Health Baptist Parkridge Hospital, where he was pronounced dead about an hour later. Cripe’s friends reported that he had drunk a McDonald’s latte, a large Mountain Dew, and an unspecified energy drink over the course of two hours. Richland County Coroner Gary Watts attributed Cripe’s death to a “caffeine-induced cardiac event causing a probable arrhythmia.”

Watts, who announced his findings at a news conference that also featured Cripe’s grieving father, conceded that his conclusion was debatable. “I realize this is a controversial scenario,” he said. “There are are obviously people that don’t think this can happen—that you can have this arrhythmia caused by caffeine.”

One reason to doubt Watts’ determination is that Cripe does not seem to have consumed a very large dose of caffeine. According to the website Caffeine Informer, a McDonald’s latte contains 142 milligrams of caffeine, a large (20-ounce) bottle of Mountain Dew has 90, and the most popular energy drinks contain 10 milligrams per fluid ounce, or 160 milligrams in a 16-ounce can. That’s a total of less than 400 milligrams, which is the daily limit recommended by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for adults. A lethal dose of caffeine is estimated to be somewhere between 5 and 10 grams—i.e., between 5,000 and 10,000 milligrams—for an adult. Cripe was 16 and weighed 200 pounds.

Watts acknowledged that Cripe did not consume very much caffeine. “This is not a caffeine overdose,” he told Reuters. “We’re not saying that it was the total amount of caffeine in the system. It was just the way that it was ingested over that short period of time, and the chugging of the energy drink at the end was what the issue was with the cardiac arrhythmia.”

Millions of teenagers chug energy drinks, of course, but very few of them die afterward. So assuming Watts is right, Cripe must have been especially sensitive to caffeine. Yet Watts said Cripe seemed perfectly healthy and there was no evidence of previously undetected cardiovascular disease. The coroner suggested that energy drinks kill at random. “This is what’s dangerous about this,” he said. “You can have five people line up and all of them do the exact same thing with him that day, drink more, and it may not have any type of effect on them at all. It’s not something that just because you drink one drink or three drinks [it] is necessarily going to have this effect.”

The implication that energy drinks kill something like one out of six teenagers who consume them obviously has no basis in reality. Yet for some reason Watts wants people to think that energy drink consumers face Russian roulette odds. “Our purpose here today is to let people know, especially our young kids in school, that these drinks can be dangerous,” he said. “Be very careful with how you use them, and how many you drink on a daily basis.” But since Watts is saying even one can be lethal, complete abstinence would seem to be the only prudent course.

That does appear to be Watts’ message. “These drinks can be very dangerous,” he said. “I’m telling my friends and family, ‘Don’t drink them.'” Yet he also claimed that “the purpose here today is not to slam Mountain Dew, not to slam cafe lattes, or energy drinks.” It is hard to see how Watts is not slamming energy drinks when he describes them as so dangerous that no one should consume them.

Although Watts emphasized that Cripe did not die from a caffeine overdose, news outlets bent over backward to exaggerate the amount of the stimulant he ingested. Relying on Caffeine Informer‘s numbers, BBC News reported that “a McDonald’s latte has 142mg of caffeine, a 570ml (20oz) Mountain Dew has 90mg, and a 450ml (16oz) energy drink can have as much as 240mg.” That “as much as” is a bit of a giveaway. Since the type of energy drink is unknown, it seems more reasonable to cite the caffeine content of the leading brands, which generally contain 160 milligrams or less of caffeine in a 16-ounce can. But even adding another 80 milligrams brings the total to just 472, not far above the level the FDA deems safe for adults (a cutoff that seems to be excessively cautious).

To make that number seem more impressive, BBC News claims a cup of brewed coffee contains “roughly” 100 milligrams of caffeine, even though Caffeine Informer, the source it cites for the other beverages, says it’s more like 163 for an eight-ounce cup. According to Caffeine Informer, brewed coffee typically contains about twice as much caffeine per ounce as those “very dangerous” energy drinks. Brewed coffee sold by some retailers is less potent but generally contains at least as much caffeine per ounce as energy drinks. Dunkin’s Donuts brewed coffee, for instance, has 15 milligrams per ounce, while Peet’s has about 17.

Yet BBC News is suggesting that Cripe consumed the caffeine equivalent of more than four cups of coffee, which is not true unless the coffee is unusually weak. The coffee served at other news organizations seems to be even less potent. NBC News says 400 milligrams of caffeine is equivalent to “about five cups of coffee,” while The Washington Post says “about four or five.”

BBC News also reports that “most energy drinks contain a caffeine equivalent of three cups of coffee,” relying on an estimate by the American Academy of Pediatrics. Even if we compare eight-ounce coffee cups to 16-ounce energy drink cans, that cannot possibly be true, since it implies a total caffeine content in the neighborhood of 480 milligrams. None of the energy drinks listed by Caffeine Informer contains anywhere near that amount in a container of any size.

The Post is slightly more cautious, saying “energy drinks may contain about 300 mg of caffeine.” Although that is literally true, fewer than 10 of the 401 varieties listed by Caffeine Informer contain that much caffeine in a single container. Yet an earlier version of the Post story, later corrected, said that potency was typical.

“We’re not trying to speak out totally against caffeine,” Watts said. “We believe people need to pay attention to their caffeine intake and how they do it, just as they do with alcohol or cigarettes.” But if that is the message, why did Watts single out energy drinks, which are about half as potent as coffee, urging people to eschew them entirely? And why are news organization so keen to reinforce the same irrational distinction?

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Key Events In The Coming Week: FOMC Minutes, GDP, BOC, OPEC And More

The key highlights in the coming week are the Fed minutes, the Eurogroup meeting on Greece, the OPEC meeting and Bank of Canada rate decision. We also get GDP releases in the US, Eurozone, and UK, while a murder (or gaggle) of Fed speaker will highlight virtually every single day, starting with 4 today. Also there will be monetary policy meetings in Colombia, South Africa, Korea, Hungary, Thailand and Ukraine. Ratings in Kuwait&Qatar

In the US, key economic releases this week are the durable goods report and Q1 GDP revision on Friday. The minutes of the May FOMC statement will be released on Wednesday at 2PM. In addition, there are several scheduled speaking engagements by Fed officials this week

Detailed event breakdown:

  • Looking for dovish signs in the Fed minutes? The minutes on the May statement will be closely watched as the market tries to assess the potential of a communication tweak. The last statement dismissed the impact of weak 1Q GDP and March consumer inflation. With recent data being on the weak side, a dovish sign in the minutes may put emphasis on downside risks.
  • Also watch for Eurogroup meeting on Greece and OPEC: A Eurogroup meeting is scheduled for 22 May. All eyes will be on the outcome because of Greece. Markets are optimistic that a compromise can be reached on Greece – we remain sceptical. Red lines around debt relief and IMF participation are the same and there is potential for complications in the run-up to the summer redemptions.
  • Our commodity strategists cover the likely outcome at next week’s OPEC meeting. We think that Saudi, Russia, and most OPEC members will try sending the oil price forward curve in backwardation/ensuring no further drops in spot oil prices. Staying the course with ongoing cuts remains the most likely course of action as OPEC meets.
  • The week ahead in Emerging Markets: here are monetary policy meetings in Colombia, South Africa, Korea, Hungary, Thailand and Ukraine. We forecast Colombia’s BANREP to cut 25bp and Ukraine’s NBU to cut 50bp. Sovereign ratings reviews in Kuwait and Qatar.

In other data

  • In the US, we mainly await 1Q GDP (2nd release), home sales, durables & capital goods orders and FOMC Meeting Minutes. We also hear from a number of FED speakers.
  • In the Eurozone, we wait for PMIs and GDP prints along with German IFO.
  • In UK, the main release is 1Q GDP on Thursday.
  • In Japan, Manufacturing PMI, trade balance and CPI are the main releases. BOJ’s Kuroda speaks in Tokyo.
  • In Canada, focus is on the Bank of Canada Rate Decision.
  • In Australia, main releases include skilled vacancies and construction.
  • In Scandies, we get unemployment data for both and PPI in Sweden. Norges Bank Governor Olsen speaks.
  • In Switzerland, sight deposits are the only release of consequence.

Visually:

And here is a detailed breakdown of just the US events, together with estimates, courtesy of Goldman:

Monday, May 22

  • 10:00am Philadelphia Fed President Harker (FOMC voter) speaks: Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker will deliver the commencement speech at Thomas Jefferson College on the topic of physical and economic wellbeing.
  • 10:30am Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari (FOMC voter) speaks: Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari will deliver welcoming remarks at the Opportunity and Inclusive Growth Conference in Minneapolis.
  • 7:30 pm Fed Governor Brainard (FOMC voter) speaks: Fed Governor Lael Brainard will speak at the Opportunity and Inclusive Growth Conference in Minneapolis on the topic of “Opportunity and Inclusion in Strengthening the US Economy.” Speech text and audience Q&A is expected.
  • 09:10 pm Chicago Fed President Evans Speaks (FOMC voter) speaks: Chicago Fed President Evans will speak at a private symposium in Shanghai. Speech text is expected.

 Tuesday, May 23

  • 9:00am Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari (FOMC voter) speaks: Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari will hold a media Q&A session.

    09:45 AM Markit Flash US manufacturing PMI, May preliminary (consensus 53.1, last 52.8); 09:45 AM Markit Flash US services PMI, May preliminary (consensus 53.3, last 53.1)

  • 10:00 AM New home sales, April (GS -3.5%, consensus -1.8%, last +5.8%): We estimate new home sales fell 3.5% in April, retracing some of its 5.8% March increase, as we believe the combination of constrained inventories and the decline in single-family permits are suggestive of a pullback, despite a favorable fundamental backdrop. Additionally, note that March new homes sales showed minimal impact of Winter Storm Stella.
  • 10:00 AM Richmond Fed manufacturing index, May (consensus +15, last +20)
  • 3:00 pm Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari (FOMC voter) speaks: Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari will speak on the topic of “Homeownership in Indian Country” at a roundtable event.
  • 5:00 pm Philadelphia Fed President Harker (FOMC voter) speaks: Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker will speak on the economic outlook at the Harvard Club of New York.

* * *

Wednesday, May 24

  • 09:00 AM FHFA house price index, March (consensus +0.5%, last +0.8%): Consensus expects the FHFA house price index to rise 0.5% (mom sa) in March on top of a 0.8% gain in February. The FHFA house price index has a wider geographic coverage than the S&P/Case-Shiller home price index, but is based only on properties financed with conforming mortgages. On a year-over-year basis, FHFA home prices rose 6.4% in February.
  • 10:00 AM Existing home sales, April (GS -2.5%, consensus -1.1%, last +4.4%): We look for a 2.5% drop in April existing homes sales, following last month’s 4.4% gain. Regional housing data released so far suggest a moderate retrenchment in closed homes sales, somewhat sharper than the 0.8% drop in March pending homes sales (which represent contract signings). Existing home sales are an input into the brokers’ commissions component of residential investment in the GDP report.
  • 02:00 PM FOMC Minutes from the May 2-3 meeting: The May FOMC meeting did not contain any significant surprises. The FOMC’s post-meeting statement acknowledged, but downplayed weak GDP growth in Q1, noting that it expects the slowdown to be “transitory,” and made no changes to the discussion of balance sheet policy. We will look for further discussion of the soft March inflation data in the minutes. The minutes should also provide more detail on the balance sheet outlook from a timing and operational perspective. We expect little change in the discussion of the funds rate outlook, however, based on Fed speeches since the meeting.
  • 6:00 pm Dallas Fed President Kaplan (FOMC voter) speaks: Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan will speak at the C.D. Howe Institute Annual Directors’ Dinner. in Toronto.
  • 6:30 pm Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari (FOMC voter) speaks: Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari will speak at a town hall in Ashland, Wisconsin sponsored by the Chamber of Commerce.

* * *

Thursday, May 25

  • 08:30 AM U.S. Census Bureau Advance Economic Indicators Report: Advance goods trade balance, April preliminary (GS -$64.9bn, consensus -$64.7bn, last -$64.2bn); We estimate the goods trade deficit widened $0.7bn to $64.9bn in April. While imported container volumes appeared to slow, export port traffic fell more dramatically, suggestive of renewed deterioration in the trade balance. We expect minimal impact of oil prices on the nominal petroleum deficit this month.
  • 08:30 AM Wholesale inventories, April preliminary (consensus +0.2%, last +0.2%); 8:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended May 20 (GS 235k, consensus 238k, last 232k); ontinuing jobless claims, week ended May 13 (consensus 1,925k, last 1,898k): We estimate initial jobless claims rebounded 2k to 235k in the week ended May 20. Claims in California appeared somewhat depressed in the prior week, and we expect a rebound in that state. Continuing claims – the number of persons receiving benefits through standard programs – have trended down further in recent weeks, suggestive of additional labor market improvement that we expect to continue.

    10:00am Fed Governor Brainard (FOMC voter) speaks: Fed Governor Lael Brainard will speak at Center for Global Development in Washington, D.C on the topic of “Global Economic Issues.” Audience Q&A is expected.

  • 11:00 AM Kansas City Fed manufacturing index, May (consensus +9, last +7)

* * *

Friday, May 26

  • 08:30 AM GDP (second), Q1 (GS +1.1%, consensus +0.9%, last +0.7%): Personal consumption, Q1 (GS +0.7%, consensus +0.4%, last +0.3%)
  • We expect a four-tenths upward revision in the second vintage of Q1 GDP report (to +1.1% qoq saar), driven by a faster pace of growth in consumption, business equipment investment, and housing investment. We look for real personal consumption to be revised up 0.4pp to +0.7%. Our forecast reflects revisions to monthly source data released since the advance GDP report, as well as the net strength in consumer spending categories of the Q1 Quarterly Services Survey (released on Friday).
  • 08:30 AM Durable goods orders, April preliminary (GS flat, consensus -1.5%, last +0.9%) : Durable goods orders ex-transportation, April preliminary (GS +0.7%, consensus +0.4%, last flat)
  • Core capital goods orders, April preliminary (GS +0.5%, consensus +0.5%, last +0.5%); Core capital goods shipments, April preliminary (GS +0.4%, consensus n.a., last +0.5%): We estimate durable goods orders were unchanged in April, as lower non-defense aircraft orders indicated by company-reported data were likely offset by continued firming in manufacturing demand more generally. Manufacturing production was strong in April, highlighted by a 1.2% increase in the capex-sensitive business equipment category. Furthermore, capital goods company results and commentary have been encouraging, with mounting evidence of accelerating growth in the industrial economy. Accordingly, we estimate solid core capex shipments and orders growth of +0.4% and +0.5%, respectively. We estimate durable goods orders ex-transportation rose 0.7%.
  • 10:00 AM University of Michigan consumer sentiment, May final (GS 97.0, consensus 97.5, last 97.7): We expect the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index to pull back 0.7pt to 97.0 in the May final estimate, reflecting the decline in the stock market and recent developments in Washington, D.C.. The preliminary report’s measure of 5- to 10-year ahead inflation expectations edged down to 2.3%, despite the early-month rebound in gas prices (which has since reversed). 10:00pm St. Louis Fed President Bullard (FOMC non-voter) speaks St. Louis Fed President James Bullard will speak at Keio University in Tokyo Japan on topic of the economy and monetary policy.

Source: GofA, Goldman

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The “Smart Money” Is Sensing a BREXIT-Type Event.

The “smart money” is flashing a signal that the US economy and ultimately the financial system, are in serious trouble.

CNBC and other media outlets like to focus on stocks because they tend to be more volatile and therefore more exciting. But BONDS are the “smart money” for the financial system.

The Bond market is larger, more liquid and involves more sophisticated investors than stocks. As such it usually picks up on major issues much earlier.

On that note, the Bond market yield curve is flattening rapidly. It has already broken through the election night lows and is now approaching the BREXIT lows.

What does this mean?

That the “smart money” is more nervous today, than it has been since the UK LEFT THE EU.

If you don’t remember what happened in the week that followed BREXIT, many EU banks were limit down losing 15%-20% in a matter of days.

The bond market is sensing that kind of issue right now.

Some VERY smart people, who manage VERY LARGE amounts of money, are positioning for an “event” like BREXIT… and stocks are completely clueless.

We offer a FREE investment report outlining when the bubble will burst as well as what investments will pay out massive returns to investors when this happens. It's called The Biggest Bubble of All Time (and three investment strategies to profit from it).

We made 1,000 copies to the general public.

As I write this there are just 27 are left.

To pick up your FREE copy…

CLICK HERE!

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

 

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Russian Hackers Infected 1 Million Bank Customer Smartphones

For all the accusations that Russian hacking only focuses outside the country – most notably to allegedly impact the outcome of democratic elections by exposing politicians’ dirty laundry – a Reuters report overnight revealed that Russian cyber criminals were just as eager to focus on their fellow countymen, using malware planted on Android mobile devices to steal from domestic bank customers and were planning to target European lenders before their arrest. The enterprising hackers targeted customers of state lender Sberbank, and also stole money from accounts at Alfa Bank and online payments company Qiwi, exploiting weaknesses in the companies’ SMS text message transfer services.

Russia’s Interior Ministry said a number of people had been arrested, including the alleged gang leader. This was a 30-year-old man living in Ivanovo, an industrial city 300 km (185 miles) northeast of Moscow, from where he had commanded a team of 20 people across six different regions. Four people remain in detention while the others are under house arrest, the ministry said in a statement.

“In the course of 20 searches across six regions, police seized computers, hundreds of bank cards and SIM cards registered under fake names,” it said.

The gang got their malware on to victims’ devices by setting up applications designed to mimic banks’ genuine apps. When users searched online, the results would suggest the fake app, which they would then download. The hackers also inserted malware into fake mobile apps for well-known pornography sites. After infecting a customer’s phone, the hackers were able to send a text message to the bank initiating a transfer of up to $120 to one of 6,000 bank accounts set up to receive the fraudulent payments.

While the hacking campaign raised a modest sum by cyber-crime standards, just over 50 million roubles ($892,000), the hacking group also obtained more sophisticated malicious software for a modest monthly fee to go after the clients of banks in France and possibly a range of other western nations.

According to Reuters, members of the cyber-gang tricked Russian banks’ customers into downloading malware via fake mobile banking applications, as well as via pornography and e-commerce programs, according to a report compiled by cyber security firm Group-IB which investigated the attack with the Russian Interior Ministry. The criminals, 16 suspects were arrested by Russian law enforcement authorities in November last year, infected more than a million smartphones in Russia, on average compromising 3,500 devices a day, Group-IB said.

* * *

Russia was just the beginning: despite having operated only in Russia before their arrest, the hackers had developed plans to target large European banks including French lenders Credit Agricole, BNP Paribas and Societe General, Group-IB said. A BNP Paribas spokeswoman said the bank could not confirm this information, but added that it “has a significant set of measures in place aimed at fighting cyber attacks on a daily basis”. Societe General and Credit Agricole declined comment.

The gang, which was called “Cron” after the malware it used, did not steal any funds from customers of the three French banks. However, it exploited the bank service in Russia that allows users to transfer small sums to other accounts by sending an SMS message. Having infected the users’ phones, the gang sent SMS messages from those devices instructing the banks to transfer money to the hackers’ own accounts.

The findings illustrate the dangers of using SMS messages for mobile banking, a method favored in emerging countries with less advanced internet infrastructure, said Lukas Stefanko, a malware researcher at cyber security firm ESET in Slovakia.

 

“It’s becoming popular among developing nations or in the countryside where access to conventional banking is difficult for people,” he said. “For them it is quick, easy and they don’t need to visit a bank… But security always has to outweigh consumer convenience.”

The success of the Cron gang was facilitated by the popularity of SMS-banking services in Russia, said Dmitry Volkov, head of investigations at Group-IB. “Cron’s success was due to two main factors,” Volkov said. “First, the large-scale use of partner programs to distribute the malware in different ways. Second, the automation of many (mobile) functions which allowed them to carry out the thefts without direct involvement.”

The cyber security group said that the existence of the Cron malware was first detected in mid-2015, and by the time of the arrests the hackers had been using it for under a year. The core members of the group were detained on Nov. 22 last year in Ivanovo. Photographs of the operation released by Group-IB showed one suspect face down in the snow as police in ski masks handcuffed him. The “Cron” hackers were arrested before they could mount attacks outside Russia, but plans to do that were at an advanced stage, said the investigators.

Group-IB said that in June 2016 they had rented a piece of malware designed to attack mobile banking systems, called “Tiny.z” for $2,000 a month. The creators of the “Tiny.z” malware had adapted it to attack banks in Britain, Germany, France, the United States and Turkey, among other countries.

 

The “Cron” gang developed software designed to attack lenders including the three French groups, it said, adding it had notified these and other European banks at risk. A spokeswoman for Sberbank said she had no information about the group involved. However, she said: “Several groups of cyber criminals are working against Sberbank. The number of groups and the methods they use to attack us change constantly.” “It isn’t clear which specific group is being referred to here because the fraudulent scheme involving Android OS (operating system) viruses is widespread in Russia and Sberbank has effectively combated it for an extensive period of time.”

Why the public crackdown? Reuters speculates that the Russian authorities, bombarded with allegations of state-sponsored hacking, are keen to show Russia too is a frequent victim of cyber crime and that they are working hard to combat it. The interior and emergencies ministries, as well as Sberbank, said they were targeted in a global cyberattack earlier this month. Still, we very much doubt that this mass arrest of hackers will do anything to dent the media’s favorite hacking narrative, the one in which the Kremlin “hacked” and convinced several hundred thousand middle class Americans to vote for Trump instead of Hillary.

via http://ift.tt/2qbZ2lv Tyler Durden

Dollar Demise Continues To Escalate – Trump-Bump Dumped

It's official, the post-Trump-election gains in the dollar have now been 100% erased as the broad dollar index drops for the 8th day in the last 9 (down 2.4% in that period), to its lowest level since November 6th 2016 – before Trump was elected…

 

So now we assume the narrative flips from "strong dollar" means "strong economy" to "weak dollar" is "great for multinationals" – either way – you buy stocks stupid.

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Bitcoin Blows Through $2100

Bitcoin is now up over 135% year-to-date, having screamed above $2000 and $2100 overnight as the dollar limped to 6-month lows…

Having shrugged off China crackdowns and worries over ‘hard forks’, it appears the legalization of the virtual currency in Japan (with Peach Aviation now accepting bitcoin for flight ticket purchases) and broader adoption in Russia have fueled demand in recent weeks…

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