Another ‘Hard’ Data Disappointment: US Industrial Production Misses, Stagnant In February

After a brief jump in December, US industrial production was unchanged in February (thanks to tumble in utilities which offset modest manufacturing gains). Industrial Production peaked in the US in Nov 2014, as the US equity market took off after the end of QE3.

February saw Industrial production unchanged against expectations of a 0.2% MoM rise (and January was revised modestly higher).

But then again, when has real economic data mattered?

 

Manufacturing was in line at +0.5%, but utilities tumbled for the 2nd month in a row (down 5.7%) and Mining output rose 2.2%.

Most of the major non-energy market groups recorded increases in February. For a second consecutive month, however, a drop in the output of utilities contributed substantially to losses in the overall indexes for consumer goods, business supplies, and materials through their energy components. 

The production of consumer goods moved down 0.4 percent overall, reflecting a drop in consumer energy products. The index for consumer durables was unchanged, as a loss of 3.6 percent in appliances, furniture, and carpeting was outweighed by increases in other groups. The production of consumer non-energy nondurables rose 0.3 percent because of improvements in foods and tobacco and in clothing. The output of business equipment moved up 0.7 percent, with both information processing equipment and industrial and other equipment recording increases.

The output of construction supplies jumped 1.3 percent; the index has advanced more than 4 percent over the past six months. The indexes for non-energy business supplies and non-energy materials each rose more than 1/2 percent. Within materials, both durable and nondurable materials posted gains.

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Trump Slams North Korea For “Behaving Very Badly”, Blames China

Following Secretary of State Tillerson's clear warning of the potential for a first strike against North Korea this morning:

“I think it’s important to recognize that the political and diplomatic efforts of the past 20 years to bring North Korea to the point of denuclearization have failed,” Tillerson said. "Let me be very clear: the policy of strategic patience has ended. We are exploring a new range of security and diplomatic measures. All options are on the table," Tillerson told a news conference in Seoul and added that any North Korean actions that threatened the South would be met with "an appropriate response."

 

President Trump has tweet-chimed-in…

Stirring the pot at both ends, just as China relations were starting to heal a little (even with the THAAD deployment).

Meanwhile, as previewed one week ago, the odds of an unexpected North Korean WMD attack are rising.

 

According to the Predata-Beyond Parallel concultancy's prediction model, there was a 43% chance of North Korean WMD activity taking place in the next 14 days (as of last Friday), while in the next 23 days, there is a 62% chance for North Korean WMD activity. Beyond Parallel defines WMD activity as nuclear tests and ballistic missile launches. A military response by the US now looks increasingly probable.

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Louisiana Imprisons People at an Astounding Rate. That May be About to Change

Louisiana dwarfs the rest of the country when it comes to putting people in prison, but now state officials say they have a plan to reduce the state’s staggering incarceration rate and save hundreds of millions of dollars over the next decade.

The Louisiana Justice Reinvestment Task Force—composed of state legislators, corrections officials, public defenders, judges, law enforcement, and district attorneys—finalized a report Thursday to overhaul the state’s criminal justice system.

“Louisiana is not only the incarceration capital of the country, we are the incarceration capital of the world,” Louisiana Gov. John Bel Edwards said in a statement Thursday. “For too long this has been a stain on our reputation and a drain on our communities. It’s not a reflection of who we are and what we stand for. We now have a roadmap that will allow us to keep our streets safe while shrinking our bloated prisons.”

The task force’s proposals would introduce a more rigorous felony classification system, which would reduce sentences for nonviolent crimes and expand eligibility for parole and drug courts. It would also increase the amount of “good time” some inmates could use to shave off their sentences, and increase funding for transition and work programs to assist inmates reentering society. Also, those sentenced to life without parole as juveniles would be made eligible for parole, bringing the state in line with a 2012 Supreme Court ruling that declared such sentences unconstitutional.

Overall, the task force estimates that its plan could reduce Louisiana’s prison population by 13 percent—more than 4,000 prison beds—and save the state $305 million over the next decade. Half of those savings would be spent on research into reducing recidivism and victim support.

For perspective on just how much of an outlier Louisiana is when it comes to incarceration: Louisiana’s rate as of 2015 was 816 incarcerated individuals per 100,000, almost double the national average, which is itself the highest in the world. Louisiana also has the second-highest wrongful conviction rate, according to the National Registry on Exonerations. The task force is blunt in its assessment of why Louisiana’s numbers are so high.

“A chief reason Louisiana leads the nation in imprisonment is that it locks up people for nonviolent offenses far more than other states do,” the report says. “The Task Force found that the state sent people to prison for drug, property, and other nonviolent offenses at twice the rate of South Carolina and three times the rate of Florida, even though the states had nearly identical crime rates. More than half of those sent to prison in 2015 had failed on community supervision. Among the rest—those sentenced directly to prison rather than probation—the top 10 crimes were all nonviolent, the most common by far being drug possession.”

James LeBlanc, the head of the Louisiana Department of Corrections and the chair of the task force, says the numbers alone should be a warning sign to policy makers.

“First of all being a poster-child for locking up twice as many people as the national average is a good sign that, hey, we’re not doing something right,” LeBlanc says in an interview with Reason. “On top of that, as many people as we’re locking up, we still rank in many categories in the top 10 if not top five in the country on crime.”

LeBlanc, who has worked in Louisiana corrections for 40 years, said the state has stubbornly clung to a “lock ’em up and throw away the key” mentality—encouraged by federal grants in the ’90s that rewarded states for passing tough sentencing laws—that most other states have moved away from over the past two decades.

Louisiana is also unique in that a significant amount of state prisoners serve their sentences in local parish jails, where there is often scant rehabilitative, work-training, and reentry programs. Those lengthy sentences and lack of support services led to high recidivism rates, funneling many ex-offenders right back into the system. “A recipe for disaster,” LeBlanc says. According to the report, one in three people return to Louisiana’s prisons within three years.

LeBlanc says the state correctional system has been improving: Its recidivism rates are down and the prison population has dropped every year over the past four years, for a total of nearly 5,000 fewer inmates. But it has only been over the past couple of years, and especially after the exit of conservative Republican Gov. Bobby Jindal, that bipartisan momentum started to build for a more comprehensive fix to Louisiana’s criminal justice system.

State prosecutors, however, are not on board with the proposals. Pete Adams, the executive director of the Louisiana District Attorneys Association, says his organization opposes any efforts that would lead to the release of violent offenders, including the task force’s proposals to introduce parole valves for those serving mandatory life sentences.

“We’re in support of what the task force was originally trying to do, which was identify and reduce incarnation of nonviolent offenders to the extent it would not increase the risk to public safety,” Adams says in an interview with Reason. “When the task force starts floating proposals that would reduced sentences for violent offenders, we’re not in support of that, conceptually.”

The split illustrates what many criminal justice experts say is the biggest roadblock to significantly reducing the prison population, not just in Louisiana but across the entire country: moving beyond so-called “low-hanging fruit” like nonviolent drug offenders to criminals convicted of violent crimes.

“We’re not saying let all these violent offenders out,” LeBlanc counters. “Look, I’ve been in this business long enough to know and spent enough time at Angola. You sit down and you talk to some of these guys that have been down 45 or 50 years, they’re 60 or 70-years old, even have gotten married since they’ve been in prison. Their propensity to commit crime stops around 45. I call it criminal menopause. I think they deserve at least an opportunity. I’m not saying let them out. I’m saying give them a process.”

There are nearly 5,000 lifers in Louisiana prisons, and in Louisiana, a life sentence means means exactly that, no exceptions. Louisiana is only one of two states where second-degree murder is a mandatory life sentence without parole.

Beyond the opposition of district attorneys, the task force has the support of a broad group of state organizations, from business to evangelical to liberal to conservative, and from national groups like the Pew Charitable Trusts, which advised the task force. The Pelican Institute for Public Policy, a conservative Louisiana think-tank, says in a statement it “fully supports” the task force’s recommendations.

“These evidence based, data driven recommendations offer the potential for millions of dollars in taxpayer savings, expanded workforce opportunities for the recently incarcerated, and a reduction in crime rates as seen in other Southern states that have implemented similar reforms,” the think-tank says. “As the state with the highest incarceration rate in the country, Louisiana cannot afford to continue to invest in a system that does not work and does not produce results. At least 33 states have already passed justice reinvestment reforms and have seen taxpayer costs and crime decline. Now is the time for our legislature to be tough and smart on crime so that Louisiana, too, can finally get the results its citizens deserve.”

The task force proposals are expected to be introduced as legislation this April.

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White House Makes Formal Apology To Britain Over Spying Accusation

Just hours after the furious British spy agency slammed the White House for Sean Spicer’s claim, made first on Tuesday by Fox News’ judge Andrew Napolitano, that the UK’s spy agency GCHQ had helped Trump spy on Obama, calling it claim “utterly ridiculous”, the US has made a formal apology to Britain, the Telegraph and Sky News reported.

Intelligence sources told The Telegraph that both Mr Spicer and General McMaster, the US National Security Adviser, have apologised over the claims. “The apology came direct from them,” a source said.  General McMaster contacted Sir Mark Lyall Grant, the Prime Minister’s National Security adviser, to apologise for the comments. Mr Spicer conveyed his apology through Sir Kim Darroch, Britain’s US ambassador.

Sky News adds that the White House has assured UK Prime Minister Theresa May that it will not repeat claims that GCHQ spied on Donald Trump, a spokesman for Downing 10 said.

“We’ve made clear to the administration that these claims are ridiculous and they should be ignored and we’ve received assurances that these allegations will not be repeated,” the spokesman told reporters. “We have a close special relationship with the White House and that allows us to raise concerns as and when they arise as was true in this case.”

The spokesman added that it would be impossible for GCHQ to spy on Mr Trump as both countries are members of the Five Eyes alliance – a joint intelligence co-operation agreement which also includes Australia, Canada and New Zealand.

 

“I would add, just as a matter of fact, with the Five Eyes pact, we cannot use each other’s capabilities to circumvent laws,” he said. “It’s a situation that simply wouldn’t arise.”

As we reported earlier this morning, the GCHQ had dismissed the allegations that British spies had helped Barack Obama eavesdrop on Mr Trump during the presidential campaign as “utterly ridiculous”.

The original accusation was made by US media commentator Judge Andrew Napolitano, and was then repeated by White House press secretary Sean Spicer.

 

Mr Spicer spoke out after the US Congress rejected Mr Trump’s claim that the Obama administration “tapped his wires” before the election. He said the president “stands by” his claim, but no evidence has yet been produced to back it up. Mr Spicer identified a report on Fox News as the source of the allegation, saying that three intelligence sources had informed the broadcaster that President Obama went outside the chain of command.

 

“He didn’t use the NSA, he didn’t use the CIA, he didn’t use the FBI and he didn’t use the Department of Justice, he used GCHQ,” said Mr Spicer.

The intelligence organisation took the unusual step of responding by saying: “Recent allegations made by media commentator Judge Andrew Napolitano about GCHQ being asked to conduct ‘wiretapping’ against the then president-elect are nonsense. “They are utterly ridiculous and should be ignored.”

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Gold Cup – Horse Racing’s Greatest Show, Gambling and ‘Going for Gold’

Gold Cup – Horse Racing’s Greatest Show, Gambling and ‘Going for Gold’

 – Gold Cup at Cheltenham – Most important event on horse racing calendar  

– Gold Cup trophy contains 10 ounces of gold

– Today’s prize is worth over £9,000 in gold terms

– £600 million bets on horses, 220,000 pints of Guinness will be drunk, 9 tonnes of potato eaten 

– Gold constantly and universally awarded as top prize 

– Ultimate prize to award our heroes as early as 408 BC

– Humanity recognises it as very rare and very valuable

– Gold a great prize and a good bet but works best as hedge and a safe haven

– Better to take a ‘punt’ on gold than the horses

Cheltenham Gold Cup – Wikipedia

 

This week 65,000 people have been gathering in Cheltenham for one of the most important events on the horse racing calendar, the world famous Cheltenham Festival and the Gold Cup race.

Over 25 races will be raced over the four day gathering with £4,305,000 of prize money will be handed out this week at Cheltenham Festival.

The Cheltenham Gold Cup is the most famous race of the festival and happens on the final day of the four-day event. The Gold Cup is the most prestigious of the most prestigious of all National Hunt events and it is sometimes referred to as the Blue Riband of horse jump-racing.

The race takes place over 3 miles 2½ furlongs (5,331 m) and includes 22 fences to be jumped.

The prize? 10 ounces of gold and £575,000. The prize for those who turn up to watch the world famous event? The chance to experience the excitement and fun of race day and likely lose a few bob – with a massive £600 million staked on the outcome of the races. The bookie always wins … well nearly always.

10 ounces of gold and over half-a-billion British pounds of cash surrounding one event. What does this say about the state of our economy today and how we award our sporting heroes?

Wikimedia

The Greatest Show on Turf

It is nearly 200 years since the most exciting race in the UK calendar was first run in 1819.  230,000 people are expected to attend this year, with 10,000 of them expected to make the special trip from Ireland in order to celebrate their jockey riders, amazing horses and indeed St. Patrick’s Day –  this being March 17th.

And what comes hand in had with horse racing? The big spending, gambling and lots of drinking.

Over 220,000 pints of Guinness will be drunk, 9 tonnes of potato eaten and 3 tonnes of smoked salmon enjoyed. Cash machines will be working hard to keep up with everyone’s spending as they churn out £2.2 million of notes and assist punters to place over £1 million of bets per race.

And what are they all there for? They’re there for the run up to or the main event itself that is the Cheltenham Gold Cup, a near 200 year old race that is the darling of the racing calendar.

What makes it so exciting is that it is the only major race that is not run on the flat. Whilst the predecessor to the Gold Cup race was first run flat in the 19th century it wasn’t until 1924 that there was the  “introduction of a level weights extended three mile steeplechase, called The Cheltenham Gold Cup”.

The Gold Cup is a chance to see the best in horse racing. It is so prestigious that it is rarely cancelled, and is considered to be the most important of steeplechase races. For race-goers the event is a chance to win big, ever hoping that the bookies get it as wrong as they did last year and misplace their odds.

For the riders, trainers and owners the race is not only about the honour that comes with winning but also about getting their hands on the infamous Cheltenham Gold Cup.

I’ve got a golden ticket cup

Today nearly 30 horses and jockeys will run the race of their lives in the hope of bringing home 10 ounces of gold, neatly melted into the form of a small trophy.

As with the Olympic medals and the Oscars, a new gold cup is made each year for the owners. But a gold cup hasn’t always been the reward for this infamous race.

The owner of the first winner, Spectre, received 100 guineas. At the time, the coins would have contained a quarter ounce of gold akin to British gold sovereigns, so 25 ounces of gold in total.

The gold price in 1819 was $19.39, so this prize in gold terms would have been worth $484.75. That same amount of gold today is worth $30,750. Not bad for a prize that was received nearly 200 years ago.

There is less gold in today’s prize cup than there was in that stash of guineas nearly 200 years ago, but 10 ounces is nothing to be sniffed at. With less than 50% of the gold that was on offer when the race was first run in 1819, this year’s cup is worth £9,950.

Is this why we reward the best of the best with gold?

Because it will serve to reward them in decades to come? Really, no one will care about a piece of paper that says they won. What humanity will still believe in, and judge value with, in the years that follow is the most precious metal of all.

Gold gives value to our winners

Whether it’s spending on your ‘gold card’, or competing for a gold medal, receiving a Nobel Prize or even travelling Gold Class, the yellow metal is still believed to be the best.

We can go back to the early days of gold’s discovery that we regarded gold as the ultimate way to recognise our champions. In his play Plutus, even the comic playwright Aristophanes wrote in 408BC of how Olympians should be awarded with gold .

Olympic first place medal from the Athens Games of 1896 (obverse), from the collection of the Olympic Museum (IOC via Wikimedia)

“Why, Zeus is poor, and I will clearly prove it to you. In the Olympic games, which he founded, and to which he convokes the whole of Greece every four years, why does he only crown the victorious athletes with wild olive? If he were rich he would give them gold.”

Whilst the Greek playwright was joking, his point was a valid one and one that still strikes a chord today. We crown the best amongst us with gold. Even when the headlines have died down, even when no-one can remember who won a famous race four years ago, the winner is still left with a timeless piece of gold that the world will certainly remember the value of.

This is more important than ever when we live in a world that places far greater value on things – many frequently superficial things – that really do not deserve it.

A prize is no better than jewellery or fancy coin

Whilst the cup might contain a whopping ten ounces of gold (more than an Olympic gold medal or Academy Award), this doesn’t mean the price of the metal is reflected in the perceived value of the prize.

In 2010, the 1988 Cheltenham Gold Cup owners had their prize stolen from them . At the time of winning (assuming the make-up of the Cup is the same as it is today) the cup’s gold content was worth £2,446. Today, that same cup is worth £9,950. To the winners, however they could not be objective about its real value. To them, it was understandably worth a lot more.

When it was stolen, the owners offered £15,000 for its return. At the time, the Cup’s owner told the BBC, ‘”What’s the point in melting it down? To me it’s worth a fortune. It’s the sentimental value, not the monetary value that’s at play here.” Unfortunately, you can be sure that melting it down is exactly what the thieves planned to do with it.

This is where prizes are similar to collectible coins or jewellery, the price beyond the underlying metal content is purely subjective. Whilst you might buy a commemorative coin for a few thousand dollars, the market may well disagree with you in a few years’ time and deem it only to be worth the few grams of gold that it really is.

The same can be said for jewellery which receives a huge markup when it arrives on the market and also attracts VAT and sales tax – unlike tax free gold coins and bars and tax free silver coins.

Whilst one might argue that the Cheltenham Gold Cup is worth more than its weight in gold, this is only the case for the winners and the small market that is interested in horse racing memorabilia.

The beauty about owning 10 ounces of pure gold bullion, rather than a cup that signifies a particular race, is that you know it will only ever be priced according to the value of the precious metal content and that the market is highly liquid. You will not go from one buyer to the next wondering if you are getting a fair price, or if you will be able to sell it at all.

Gold is for winners, not for the gamblers

Of course, there is only one Cheltenham Gold Cup to be won this week, but there are plenty of opportunities for punters to win big (and lose) at the bookies. For the £600 million plus that is at stake this week, we wonder if some of those gamblers might be better to take a leaf out of the competitors’ book and ‘go for gold’ instead.

Gambling for some is a bit of fun, and you hopefully only gamble what you can afford to lose. But what happens when you lose? You might think that you only gamble small amounts, or just a couple of times a year, so where’s the harm? There probably isn’t much harm but it’s what’s happening with the rest of your money that is where the risk is.

As we have pointed out countless times before, those same bank accounts that punters are using to fund a day at the races are also being used by the banking system to keep their own game of probability and risk and massive speculation going.

Gold is a form of insurance to protect you when this game goes wrong and the house of cards collapses as it began to in 2008.

When it comes to gold, you’re doing the opposite of gambling, you’re buying insurance for the times when others make a bad bet playing with your money. You are taking some of your hard earned ‘chips off the table’ of the global casino.

What about the winners of the Cheltenham Gold Cup today?

We would advise them to not only take a punt on their horses but also make a safe haven punt on gold.

They should also enjoy their hard earned and well deserved victory and take pride in their beautiful Gold Cup Trophy.

Congratulations to them, winning anything is always a good thing and the achievement should be celebrated.

Gold and Silver Bullion – News and Commentary

Gold prices hold firm, set for first weekly gain in three (reuters.com)

The Gold Party’s Back on After Yellen Reassures the Market (bloomberg.com)

Gold Seen Climbing as Yellen Sets Scene for Negative Rates (bloomberg.com)

Gold sovereigns hoard found in piano is ‘life-changing’ stockpile (BBC.com)

Michael Hasenstab bets against euro in ‘hedge against populism’ (irishtimes.com)

Solving the Secret Behind the Chinese Gold Market (thepochtimes.com)

Idaho And Arizona Pass Bills To Remove “Capital Gains Taxes” On Gold And Silver (goldseek.com)

Gold and Silver Price Manipulation: The Biggest Financial Crime in History (goldseek.com)

Feds Hit Debt Limit—Again; Debt Now Exceeds Limit Set in 2008 by $8,550,505,000,000 (cnsnews.com)

Strong Institutional Investment Pushes Silver Prices Higher (silverinstitute.org)

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Gold Prices (LBMA AM)

17 Mar: USD 1,228.75, GBP 991.85 & EUR 1,140.53 per ounce
16 Mar: USD 1,225.60, GBP 998.74 & EUR 1,143.24 per ounce
15 Mar: USD 1,202.25, GBP 986.69 & EUR 1,132.04 per ounce
14 Mar: USD 1,203.55, GBP 992.33 & EUR 1,130.86 per ounce
13 Mar: USD 1,207.80, GBP 989.79 & EUR 1,132.07 per ounce
10 Mar: USD 1,196.55, GBP 983.56 & EUR 1,127.15 per ounce
09 Mar: USD 1,204.60, GBP 991.39 & EUR 1,140.64 per ounce

Silver Prices (LBMA)

17 Mar: USD 17.40, GBP 14.08 & EUR 16.21 per ounce
16 Mar: USD 17.46, GBP 14.21 & EUR 16.28 per ounce
15 Mar: USD 16.91, GBP 13.87 & EUR 15.92 per ounce
14 Mar: USD 17.00, GBP 14.02 & EUR 15.99 per ounce
13 Mar: USD 17.02, GBP 13.92 & EUR 15.95 per ounce
10 Mar: USD 16.89, GBP 13.91 & EUR 15.92 per ounce
09 Mar: USD 17.14, GBP 14.10 & EUR 16.23 per ounce


Recent Market Updates

– Gold Up 1.8%, Silver Up 2.6% After Dovish Fed Signals Slow Rate Rises
– Most Overvalued Stock Market On Record — Worse Than 1929?
– EU Crisis Is Existential – Importance of Tomorrow’s Vote
– Digital Gold On Blockchain – For Now Caveat Emptor
– Gold $10,000 Coming – “Time To Prepare Is Now”
– Silver Very Undervalued from Historical Perpective of Ancient Greece
– Gold Investing 101 – Beware Unallocated Gold Accounts With Indebted Bullion Banks and Mints (Part II)
– Gold Investing 101 – Beware eBay, Collectibles and “Pure” Gold Coins that are Gold Plated
– “Think About and Prepare For” Euro Catastrophe
– Silver On Sale – 4% Fall On Massive $2 Billion of Futures Selling
– Trump Avoid Debt Crisis ? “Extremely Unlikely” – Rickards
– Art Market Bubble Bursting – Gauguin Priced At $85 Million Collapses 74%
– Gold’s Value – Weight, Beauty, Rarity, Peak Gold and Secure Storage – Interview


Access Daily and Weekly Updates Here

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“We’ll Blow Your Mind”: Turkey Threatens Europe With “15,000 Refugees Per Month”

Earlier this week, at the peak of the latest diplomatic scandal between Turkey and the Netherlands, Ankara’s deputy prime minister Numan Kurtulmus announced not only a round of sanctions aimed at the Dutch but exclaimed that since “Europe has not kept its promises on the migrant deal, for us that agreement has ended” to which we commented that “one year after it collected $3 billion for the migrant deal, Turkey has just voided the agreement, and the next step would be that Turkey is about to flood Europe with refugees currently held inside Turkish borders. And since by some estimates Turkey currently harbors over 2 million potential migrants, Europe’s refugee situation is about to get far worse, and as a corollary, support for anti-immigrant political organizations across the continent is about to take another step function higher.”

Today, Turkey put a tangible quantity to the warning, and as Turkey’s Hurriyet Daily News reports, Turkey’s Interior Minister Suleyman Soylu threatened to “blow the mind” of Europe by sending 15,000 refugees a month to EU territory, in an intensifying dispute with the bloc.The threat is also a confirmation that for Turkey, refugees are merely a form of “weaponized” leverage in the escalating war of words between the country and Europe.

As a reminder, one year ago, on March 18, 2016, Ankara and Brussels signed a landmark deal that has substantially lessened the flow of migrants from Turkey to Europe. But the accord is now hanging in the balance due to the diplomatic crisis over the blocking of Turkish ministers from holding rallies in Europe.

“If you want, we could open the way for 15,000 refugees that we don’t send each month and blow the mind” of Europe, Soylu said in a speech late Thursday, quoted by the Anadolu news agency. Soylu, a hardliner considered close to Erdogan, accused The Hague and Berlin of involvement in June 2013 anti-Erdogan protests, October 2014 pro-Kurdish riots and the July 15, 2016 failed coup attempt.


Turkish Interior Minister Süleyman Soylu

Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu has already indicated that Turkey could rip up the deal and said Turkey was no longer readmitting migrants who crossed into Greece. The crisis was sparked when the Netherlands and Germany refused to allow Turkish ministers to campaign in a April 16 referendum on expanding President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s powers, prompting the Turkish strongman to compare them with Nazi Germany.

“They are trying to complete the work that they did not finish. Who is doing this work? It’s the Netherlands and Germany,” Soylu said. He accused Europe of failing to help Turkey enter the bloc and of not helping with its fight against terror.

“Europe, do you have that kind of courage…? Let us remind you that you cannot play games in this region and ignore Turkey,” he added.

Meanwhile, the European Union refuses to acknowledge the leverage Turkey has, and said it expects Turkey to continue implementing the deal, which drastically cut the numbers making the dangerous passage across the Aegean Sea.  A key pillar of the deal were pledges by Turkey to boost border security and break people-smuggling networks, moves that analysts say slowed the migrant flow to a trickle.

Erdogan in November last year already threatened Europe with opening the frontiers of Turkey, which borders EU members Greece and Bulgaria.

Recall that the mass influx of migrants to Europe in 2015 was seen as boosting the support of the far-right on the continent. As a result of the over 1 million refugees who flooded Germany that year, Angela Merkel’s approval rating tumbled at the end of 2015 to the lowest in years, as migrants flooded Germany…

… and boosted support for the anti-immigrant AfD, resulting in a series of high profile local election losses for Merkel’s CDU party, as well as a surge in terrorist attacks on German soil perpetrated by radicalized Muslim refugees.

Should Turkey execute on its threat, it is likely that the anti-immigrant, populist wave that has swept Europe in 2015 and 2016, and which has subsided modestly in the subsequent period, will find a second, and very dangerous to the European establishment, wind.

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Tillerson’s ‘Patience Has Ended’ With North Korea, Venezuela Attacks Bread Shortage by Seizing Bakeries, Cincy Cop’s Drunk AR-15 Antics Lead to Arrest: A.M. Links

South Korean Foreign Minister Yun Byung-se (R) shakes hands with U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson in South Korea on March 17

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EURUSD Tumbles As Le Pen Support Jumps

Given the collapse of European VIX to record lows, one could be forgiven for thinking that there's nothing to worry about. However, a one point jump in first-round support for French far-right presidential candidate Marine Le Pen has sparked a notable drop in EURUSD this morning.

European FX investors look anything but comfortable…

 

Overall however, according to the polls, Le Pen is unlikely to win…

But then again – Brexit and Trump proved that means nothing.

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Movie Review: Beauty and the Beast: New at Reason

BeastExperiencing Disney’s new live-action Beauty and the Beast is like being held down and force-fed candy for two hours. Candy fans can take this as a recommendation, and lovers of blazingly well-made fantasy films and full-belt Broadway musicals will surely have a good time. I had a good time myself, up to a point. But the movie is possibly overstuffed with Disney’s warm artificiality—the cozily cluttered interiors, the bustling village square, the broody castle, the vivid weather—and at the end you may feel bloated.

Like the phenomenally successful live-action Cinderella of two years ago, Beauty is a remake of an earlier Disney animated fairy tale—the Oscar-winning 1991 film of sainted memory. As you may know, that picture was translated straight onto Broadway for a 13-year run, and continues traipsing the world to our very day. Now this.

View this article.

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Frontrunning: March 17

  • Oil Set for First Weekly Gain This Month (BBG)
  • Trump’s Budget Likely to See Major Rewrite in Congress (WSJ)
  • Trump, Germany’s Merkel to hold first face-to-face meeting at White House (Reuters)
  • Tillerson Doesn’t Rule Out Preemptive Strike on North Korea (BBG)
  • Tillerson’s email alias ‘entirely proper’: Exxon attorneys (Reuters)
  • Trump May Not Want Immigrants, but Rust Belt Mayors Do (BBG)
  • Gorsuch Sided With Illegal Immigrants in Criticism of Agencies (WSJ)
  • Bob Diamond Returns to U.K. Banking With Panmure Buy (WSJ)
  • As Many Midwest Cities Slump, Sioux Falls Soars (WSJ)
  • Euro zone lifted as ECB joins central bank trend (Reuters)
  • Nintendo to Double Production of Switch Console (WSJ)
  • Budget Cuts to Meals on Wheels Could Hurt Veterans, Raise Costs (BBG)
  • ‘Anonymous’ Joins Hacker Army Targeting Central Banks for Cash (BBG)
  • Berlin: Merkel’s call with Chinese president not linked to her U.S. trip (Reuters)
  • China to build on disputed shoal in South China Sea (Reuters)
  • VW’s Rough Patch Spells Opportunity for Investors (WSJ)
  • Sirens blare as Japan, fearing North Korea, holds first missile drill (Reuters)
  • Tesla’s $169 Million Battery Play Is Just the Beginning (BBG)
  • Philippines tells EU lawmakers to butt out after criticism of drugs war (Reuters)
  • Iraqi forces advance into Mosul’s Old City, Nuri mosque in sight (Reuters)
  • Canada Goose Vaults Reiss From Aspiring Writer to Millionaire (BBG)
  • Oklahoma lawmaker, found with boy in motel, charged with prostitution (Reuters)

 

Overnight Media Digest

WSJ

– McDonald’s Corp said it was notified by Twitter Inc that its account was compromised, after a message about President Donald Trump was posted from the burger chain’s corporate Twitter account. http://on.wsj.com/2ntFdJA

– France’s financial crimes investigator has begun a preliminary probe into alleged wrongdoing at Airbus Group SE , the company said, amid widening accusations facing the European plane maker over potential corruption. http://on.wsj.com/2ntMnxh

– Executives at Viacom Inc and its Paramount Pictures studio are working overtime to keep their $1 billion co-financing deal with two Chinese firms on course. Viacom Chief Financial Officer Wade Davis is in China meeting with the companies, Shanghai Film Group Corp and Huahua Media, according to people familiar with the matter. http://on.wsj.com/2ntFDQ5

– Officials at Caterpillar Inc, which has faced scrutiny from federal investigators, said it has hired former U.S. Attorney General William Barr to help assess matters related to government raids on its facilities earlier this month. http://on.wsj.com/2ntKJvF

– Exxon Mobil Corp called accusations that it withheld documents relating to climate change from the New York attorney general an attempt to discredit the energy company, but disclosed a newly discovered technical issue that could mean it will soon release more of its former chairman’s emails. http://on.wsj.com/2ntKfW6

– Marathon Pharmaceuticals LLC has struck a deal to sell its muscular-dystrophy treatment to PTC Therapeutics Inc, one month after Marathon’s $89,000 price tag for the drug spurred an outcry from patient advocates and federal lawmakers. http://on.wsj.com/2ntLu7M

– 3M Co is buying a personal-safety unit from Johnson Controls Inc for about $2 billion, the companies said. http://on.wsj.com/2ntLwNe

– U.S. authorities said Russian intelligence officers backed of the massive 2014 hack against Yahoo Inc, but the hacker at the center of the allegations is a 29-year-old who has eluded Western law-enforcement agencies for several years. http://on.wsj.com/2ntFWKJ

 

FT

British Prime Minister Theresa May ruled out a second Scottish independence referendum until well after the UK leaves the EU, saying it would be unfair to ask people to vote without knowing the result of Brexit talks.

Toyota Motor Corp said it plans to invest 240 million pounds ($296.47 million) to upgrade its car plant in central England, in a sign the Japanese carmaker will keep manufacturing in Britain after the country’s departure from the EU.

PricewaterhouseCoopers should pay a fine of 6 million pounds after the firm admitted failings in its audit of collapsed social housing maintenance group Connaught, the UK’s Financial Reporting Council argued on Thursday.

UK petrochemicals group Ineos is in talks with BP Plc to buy the Forties pipeline system in the North Sea, one of the region’s oldest and the main source for the eponymous crude used to price the global Brent crude benchmark.

 

NYT

– German authorities searched the offices of Jones Day, the American law firm Volkswagen hired to conduct an internal investigation of its emissions fraud, the carmaker confirmed on Thursday, raising questions about the credibility of the company’s efforts to uncover wrongdoing in its ranks. http://nyti.ms/2mPdqQt

– A group of 27 former associates from the law firm Sullivan & Cromwell sent a letter on Thursday to Walter Clayton, President Trump’s nominee to become chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission, asking that he speak out against the White House’s attempt to restrict travel to the United States by people from several predominantly Muslim countries. http://nyti.ms/2mysgsW

– The White House economic adviser Gary Cohn is selling a significant holding in the world’s largest bank, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, as he clears potential conflicts of interest to serve in his new role. http://nyti.ms/2ntJ898

– Britain asked regulators on Thursday to investigate whether 21st Century Fox’s $14.3 billion deal to take full control of the British satellite television giant Sky would give the media mogul Rupert Murdoch too much control over the country’s media landscape. http://nyti.ms/2mP1HBx

 

Canada

THE GLOBE AND MAIL

** Tim Hortons Inc’s top executives are setting up internal reviews of key franchisee grievances in a bid to quell discontent stemming from heavy corporate cost-cutting that some restaurant owners say harms the brand. https://tgam.ca/2mBN8jU

** The Alberta government expects to more than double its debt over the next three years and run deficits for six years, all while counting on rising oil prices and unbuilt pipelines to rescue the province’s finances. https://tgam.ca/2mBMumt

** The Conservative Party is investigating allegations of what leadership candidate Kevin O’Leary is calling massive voter fraud by at least one of his leadership challengers. https://tgam.ca/2ngCYbZ

NATIONAL POST

** Canada Goose Holdings Inc, known for its C$900 parkas with coyote fur-lined hoods, saw its share price open at C$23.86 on the Toronto Stock Exchange, almost 40 per cent higher than the initial offering price of C$17. http://bit.ly/2mzuGrk

** Quebecor Inc’s price target got a boost from analysts at numerous banks after the communications and media company posted strong results on Wednesday. http://bit.ly/2mPR01m

 

Britain

The Times

* Google is to be summoned before the government to explain why taxpayers are unwittingly funding extremists through advertising, The Times can reveal. http://bit.ly/2nthNDT

* Oil and gas giant BP is in talks to sell the North Sea’s biggest pipeline to Ineos, the petrochemicals company run by Jim Ratcliffe. http://bit.ly/2mOrNVm

The Guardian

* Toyota Motor Corp is to invest 240 million pounds into upgrading its car plant in Derbyshire in a major boost for the automotive industry after Britain’s vote to leave the European Union. http://bit.ly/2myjqey

* Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has accused Theresa May of sealing the fate of UK after the prime minister rejected her demand for a second Scottish independence referendum before the Brexit talks conclude. http://bit.ly/2neOlRM

The Telegraph

* Canary Wharf Group is mulling a sale of its stake in one of the City of London’s most recognisable buildings, according to reports. http://bit.ly/2nL2YbZ

* Britain’s intelligence and security organisation has dismissed claims, suggested by the White House, that it helped former U.S. president Barack Obama spy on President Donald Trump as “nonsense” in a rare public statement. http://bit.ly/2nxcsIq

Sky News

* Former Barclays chief executive Bob Diamond is launching a joint takeover bid with Qatari investors for Panmure Gordon, one of Britain’s oldest stockbrokers. http://bit.ly/2m6lXl3

* Former British prime minister David Cameron has tried to brush aside the significance of Conservative overspending at the last general election which led to the party receiving a record 70,000 pounds fine. http://bit.ly/2ntmcqx

The Independent

* Writing for the Independent, EU commissioner Julian King said it was vital for nations to work closely to combat international cyber attacks, terrorists and hostile states and “be prepared for whatever the future holds”. http://ind.pn/2mV0zxS

* UK Culture Secretary Karen Bradley said on Thursday that she had asked regulators to examine Rupert Murdoch’s 21st Century Fox’s planned takeover of Sky. http://ind.pn/2nvyefF

via http://ift.tt/2nyWVYy Tyler Durden