The topic list for the final presidential debate this Thursday—assuming it happens—is broad. In just an hour and a half, President Trump and Democratic nominee Joe Biden will be asked to address the COVID-19 pandemic, American families, race, climate change, leadership, and national security.
These are all worthwhile topics, but the latter is uniquely important for this office. The president does not have the Constitutional power to start new wars, whatever recent practice may suggest, but he does have the power to end them, and our country has a lot of wars overdue for conclusion. American voters deserve careful scrutiny of the candidates’ positions on individual conflicts and larger strategic matters alike. Here are a few questions Trump and Biden should answer.
Afghanistan. This is the longest war and nation-building project in American history, and you have both pledged to end it. President Trump, you’ve backtracked on exit plans before and don’t intend to withdraw the last ground troops before Inauguration Day. What is your purpose in this delay, and what will you do if that purpose is not achieved by next summer’s withdrawal deadline? Vice President Biden, what is the meaningful difference between your Afghanistan policy and your opponent’s? Will you end this war within six months of your inauguration?
Iraq.After initially supporting the 2003 invasion, you have both more recently called the war in Iraq a mistake. The American public agrees: Two thirds say the war wasn’t worth fighting, and the Army’s history of Iraq describes a “doomed” venture in which the United States failed “to attain its strategic objectives” and instead produced regional destabilization, hundreds of thousands of American and Iraqi casualties, and up to $2 trillion debt-funded spending. What lesson(s) do you see here? Do you anticipate ending this war within four years if you win this election? If not, why not?
Yemen. The Obama administration began supporting the Saudi-led coalition intervention into Yemen’s civil war in 2015, and the Trump administration has continued to enable coalition actions that have been widely labeled war crimes. Vice President Biden, when did you first oppose the U.S. role in Yemen, and what is your schedule for ending it? President Trump, you vetoed a bipartisan bill with strong public support that would have required U.S. departure. Under what circumstances, if any, would you change your mind on this issue?
North Korea. U.S. diplomacy with North Korea is at a standstill and has seen little real progress since the first summit with leader Kim Jong-un in 2018. Washington continues to insist on complete, verifiable, irreversible denuclearization (CVID) as the only acceptable goal in negotiations despite strong evidence this is not an aim Pyongyang will accept so long as it believes forcible, U.S.-orchestrated regime change—like in Iraq—is a risk. To both candidates: Will you continue indefinitely to insist on CVID in your talks with North Korea? Will you pursue a peace treaty for the Korean War?
Iran. Our relationship with Iran is at a five-year low since the Trump administration left the Iran nuclear deal and instituted its counterproductive “maximum pressure” approach, which demands Tehran concede everything in exchange for nothing before negotiations even begin. Vice President Biden, you’ve said you’d rejoin the deal but intend to continue sanctioning Iran. How will your Iran policy progress beyond that of the Obama administration, which contributed to cruel shortages of food and medicine for ordinary Iranians? President Trump, you’ve said we’ll have a new nuclear deal with Iran “within one month” if you’re re-elected. What will you do if we don’t? How will you avoid repeating the needlessly dangerous position in which you put us this past January?
Great power competition. How would you characterize U.S. relations with China and Russia? In what circumstances would you risk war with these fellow nuclear powers? How aggressively would you deploy U.S. troops near their borders, as in the South China Sea, or in nations where they have a ground presence, like Syria? Would you intervene militarily to fight against Russia in Eastern Europe or to protect Taiwan from invasion by Beijing? If yes, please explain the necessity of that choice to defend U.S. national security.
Grand strategy. How would you describe your grand strategy for U.S. foreign policy? What do you consider vital U.S. security interests—interests that require military defense because our country cannot survive without them? The U.S. keeps around 150,000 troops at 800 bases in 70 nations worldwide. Do you believe that global sprawl is necessary for U.S. security? What is your method of diplomacy, and how do you conceive its place within your strategy for foreign affairs? Why are you best suited to steward the United States toward safety and peace?
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“ Giving elected representatives the keys to the printing press is the equivalent of giving a gambling addict the keys to the casino.”
Equity Markets feel kind of lacklustre and dull at the moment. Despite a host of corporate news and developments (including the delicious threat of trust and monopoly action against Tech), there is an awful lot of negative noise out there holding back investors.
On the plus side there are lots of reasons to be positive!
The first thing to cheer about is there is absolutely nothing to worry about in terms of the trillions of additional sovereign debt being raised to fight the effects of the Coronavirus Pandemic.
The extraordinary success of the EU’s SURE bond issue on Tuesday highlights how the rules on Sovereign Debt have changed. Governments worried about how they pay the costs of pandemic support measures and furloughs should take a good look and rip up their rules on balanced budgets and prudence! (Yes… I am writing this for Rishi Sunak et al to consider…)
The EU was looking to raise €17 bln for its debut bond off the €100 bln programme. They received over €233 billion in orders. The bonds were placed at a negative yield on the 10-year tranche! The investors who didn’t get allocated are furious the EU doesn’t want their money….
It’s been a truly extraordinary bond issue. But I don’t pull back on anything I said about the programme on Tuesday. The deal was a success because investors want somewhere “safe” to park money, and they absolutely value the ECB Put: the ECB can buy up to 50% of the deal via its QE programmes, therefore guaranteeing liquidity.
The fact the ECB is now tied into guaranteeing that liquidity in perpetuity is nailed on. Should the ECB ever try to raise European rates or scale back on QE, then the price of all bonds will demonstrate the effects of financial gravity – and destroy the reputation of the EU as an issuer. (Except, that’s not quite true: Blain’s Market Mantra No 8 states: “The Market Has No Memory”… which explains why investors keep buying names like Argentina time and time again.)
The thing is…. the EU just got offered a quarter of a trillion Euros from investors desperate to accept a negative yields to lend them money!!! The borrower was The European Union, an unelected creeping Autocracy of Brussels Bureaucrats who haven’t had their budgets signed off in years. Moody’s might rate them Aaa, but they rated a lot of stuff similar. The member of states of the EU signed off on the SURE lending programme and a further €750 bln of recovery lending, yet still can’t agree on banking union, or closer political tie up. They haven’t agreed how to budget. (The assumption Germany pays is understood by everyone – except the Germans.) Yet the EU still managed to get a quarter of trillion euros in demand in the blink of an eye…
Just think of how much real countries using their own real money could go out and raise… ?Our problems are solved. Yay!
(No seriously… the EU deal highlights the opportunities to go borrow money today to rebuild Western Economies… We can worry about paying it back later…. Coming next.. a German 100-year zero-coupon negative-yield bond priced at -1%: meaning investors give Germany €100 today and Germany gives them back zero in 2120. And everyone is smiling…?)
Meanwhile, The Pandemic and what to buy!
Back in the real world, the pandemic is still the dominant threat to growth and future prosperity. As new waves of infection raise new lockdowns across Europe (1 million cases in Spain), and numbers in the US rise, the outlook looks bleak. However, while sectors like hospitality and travel are struggling, many other sectors are demonstrating considerable resilience – they are not only thriving, but are set to remain strong when – not if – a more sustained recovery sets in. That is going to happen either as we get better at “crushing the curve” to keep hospitals open, or a vaccine changes the equation.
I also detect a change in investment approach. Recently I’ve written about Tech stocks – asking if this the time to shift from the Tech Darlings that have driven stock price recovery since March, into more “Fundamentally-Driven” stocks: companies that are dull, boring, and predictable, making profits and paying dividends by doing effectively the same thing they’ve been doing for years.
Wow… what a novel investment concept: investing in the proven results of dull, boring, predictable companies that do what it says on the tin, rather than the hopes and promises of whoosh Tech Unicorns. Fundamentals include the old economy, stuff like mining, manufacturing, trade, selling or whatever. Successful companies thrive because they have the skills and experience to do so.
At present, ultra-low interest rates and negative yields favour equity upside over bonds’ negative returns. Stock prices have also been inflated by the effects of zero and negative interest rate policy. Because of the pandemic recession, companies and industries aren’t doing particularly well making and selling more stuff – but are seeing their stock price remain high because equities look a better investment relative to other financial assets. As the pandemic fades and profits expectations grow, they are going to look even more attractive – driving further upside.
At the moment we have a curious situation: stocks are pricing in recovery despite the pandemic, but are already overpriced because of ultra-low rates. Which factor do you favour? Rates are likely to remain lower for longer (central banks have already said so), so despite the apparent stock price stagflation and bubble threat, it feels and looks like there is plenty of room for a further leg up for equities.
What is going to trigger upside?
And, talking of the Elephant or Donkey in the Room: US Elections…
I will go with resumed growth… but it’s only 12 days till the US election and it’s the other dominant theme overhanging markets. The two sides continue to pump vitriol at each other; headlines are dominated on clearly bogus fake news about how awful the respective candidates are. There is an excellent John Authers piece this morning on BBerg: Investors Surfing the Blue Wave Trade Need a Hedge.
The real issues underlying the election are getting buried in the noise: tax and stimulus policy, job creation, competition, pandemic recovery, equality of opportunity, strengthening the western alliance and democracy, trade, rebuilding US infrastructure, and how to really make America great again while not turning into a cesspool of polarized hatreds. These would all seem more important issues – but I guess we will find out more in tonight’s “Presidential” debate.
What’s most depressing about the US election? Watching and listening to otherwise smart intelligent well-meaning people taking up cudgels and making insane compromises on candidates. It looks more like ancient Rome at times – as wanna-be emperors compete to buy the empire.
What’s good about the Election.. it will be over. (quite when we don’t know…)
Who will win? The polls show a small-tick up for Biden yesterday. Of course, both sides say they are winning. Rule 1 of any Election is to always, always, always present yourself as Winning.
People like to be on the winning side as campaigns build momentum. If the campaign is knocked back, or suddenly the polls are much closer than they thought, and voters can be convinced their candidate is no longer the favourite and is actually losing… then they don’t show up at the polls. Not for one moment would I suggest the simultaneous plethora of stories saying Trump is actually leading in mail-in votes, or why the polls are wrong and his lead is being underestimated, all appearing at the same time, are connected in any way. But, to win an election you need to control and direct the narrative – see Rule 1 above.
It may well be the polling firms have still not figured out why they got it so wrong in the past and are still getting it even more wrong today. If these stories are right and mail-in votes and social-media sentiment are all going Trump’s way, then yet again we have the remarkable situation of US pollsters – clever, well paid professionals – being substantially wrong and not having learnt from the mistakes of the past.
However – it’s worth remembering that in 2019 the polls in the UK – which are run by essentially the same organisations and use the same methods by which US polls are run – tracked the election outcome almost exactly after getting the numbers massively wrong in 2016. Since then they refined their methods and got it right. UK Polls predicted the Tories to win 43.8% and they got 45% of the vote. They nailed Labour at 33% which is exactly what they got. They called the number of seats each party nearly perfect.
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Futures Slide Ahead Of Final Debate, On Lack Of “Stimulus Optimism” Tyler Durden
Thu, 10/22/2020 – 08:19
S&P futures traded lower, alongside shares in Europe and most of Asia – but since rebounded from overnight lows – as worries about a delay to U.S. economic stimulus, surging virus cases across Europe and concerns about tonight’s final presidential debate and election interference weighed on sentiment. Investors also braced for another high level of weekly jobless claims, while with just 12 days to go until the US election and Europe’s struggle to contain second waves it’s become increasingly tricky for markets, according to Citi. As risk sentiment soured overnight, the USD bottomed out at yesterday’s lows, while oil and cryptocurrencies rose.
ES futures tumbled to session low just above 3,400 late on Wednesday night, when the top U.S. spy chief accused Iran of making its most direct efforts to interfere in the closing days of the presidential election, saying the Islamic Republic faked a series of intimidating messages to Democratic voters.
This followed another volatile session on Wednesday, when US shares closed lower amid signs that a stimulus package is unlikely to become law before the election, as we have said all along. Nancy Pelosi and Steven Mnuchin “made progress” in their latest talks and will speak again Thursday even as the odds remained long for a deal that could pass in the Senate.
With no meaningful progress on fiscal policy, markets “are reacting to the heightened political instability that comes with the confirmation of efforts to manipulate the presidential race,” said Saxo strategist Eleanor Creagh. “The ability for either candidate to seize upon accusations of foreign interference is heightened and raises the probability of a contested outcome, particularly as the race could be closer than polls currently indicate.”
Tesla climbed about 5% after the electric-car maker reported its fifth consecutive quarterly profit on record revenue of $8.8 billion. Chipotle fell 4% as it posted a drop in quarterly profit, hurt by higher beef prices, delivery costs and coronavirus-related expenses. Coca-Cola also edged lower ahead of its quarterly report.
“There is increasingly a recognition that no fiscal package agreement ahead of the election is likely,” said James McCormick, global head of desk strategy at NatWest Markets. “The Covid-19 resurgence is certainly a background issue for risk assets, but the fiscal debate in the U.S. has been the main short-term question.”
In Europe, the Stoxx Europe 600 Index initially fell more than 1% trading at the lowest level since Oct. 2, with energy and chemicals leading losses among sectors, but has since rebounded into the green helped by gains in travel and retail stocks. British Airways owner IAG plunged after warning it won’t break even based on cash flow in the fourth quarter.
Earlier in the session the MSCI Asia Pacific Index slid 0.6% with Asian markets mixed: Japan’s Topix and South Korea’s Kospi fell, while Taiwan’s Taiex and Thailand’s SET increased. The Topix lost 1.1%, with Recruit and Daiichi Sankyo contributing the most to the move. The Shanghai Composite Index retreated 0.4%, driven by China Life and Fosun Pharma.
There was more bad news on the virus front, as there is increasing evidence that the pandemic is worsening around the world. German infections jumped to a record and Spain’s heath minister said the spread of coronavirus is out of control in certain parts of the country. U.S. hospitalizations for Covid-19 have reached a two-month high.
In FX, the dollar advanced against most of its Group-of-10 peers, with the Bloomberg Dollar Index rebounding from its lowest level since early September touched Wednesday. The euro erased early gains; the pound weakened while Gilts sold off as traders waited for more concrete evidence the U.K. and European Union could be moving toward a Brexit trade deal. The yuan led a decline in emerging Asian currencies as tensions between Washington and Beijing resurfaced and claims emerged of attempted foreign interference in the U.S. election. The U.S. designated six more Chinese publications as “foreign missions,” adding to the list of media outlets it describes as controlled by Beijing which must meet requirements similar to those imposed on embassies and consulates in America. Thai Prime Minister Prayuth Chan- Ocha ordered the withdrawal of the week-old state of emergency in the nation’s capital that barred large gatherings, in a bid to pacify pro-democracy protesters.
In rates, Treasuries gained as the U.S. session gets underway, leaving long-end yields richer by ~2bp in a bull-flattening move. Risk-aversion mounted amid stimulus delay, rising virus cases and U.S. election concerns stoked by foreign interference accusations. Yields across front-end remained anchored, flattening 2s10s by 1bp and 5s30s by 1.7bp; 10-year yields around 0.81%, richer by ~1bp vs. Wednesday close. Bunds (2bp) and gilts (4bp) both lag Treasuries; gilts notably underperform following 2035 and 2050 debt sales. Treasuries advanced during the Asian session after a top U.S. intelligence official warned Iran and Russia are attempting to interfere with the Nov. 3 election, where the possibility of a close race and a protracted vote count has alarmed investors.
In commodities, WTI and Brent currently trade around the unchanged mark, same as gold. Overnight, Goldman Sachs said it expects a bull market to emerge for commodities in 2021. Spot gold is modestly softer this morning as while the DXY remains below the 93.00 mark and was subdued at the start of the European session it has been gradually picking up and remains in proximity to highs.
The highlight of the day will be the final presidential debate before the U.S. election between Trump and Biden, live from Nashville, Tennessee. Looking ahead, the number of Americans filing for state unemployment benefits last week is expected to dip slightly but remain firmly above 800,000 as support from fiscal stimulus faded.
Market Snapshot
S&P 500 futures down 0.2% to 3,425.75
STOXX Europe 600 down 0.5% to 359.04
German 10Y yield rose 0.5 bps to -0.583%
Euro down 0.06% to $1.1854
Italian 10Y yield rose 5.2 bps to 0.578%
Spanish 10Y yield unchanged at 0.205%
Brent futures up 0.1% to $41.78/bbl
Gold spot down 0.3% to $1,918.69
U.S. Dollar Index up 0.1% to 92.69
MXAP down 0.5% to 176.13
MXAPJ down 0.2% to 585.62
Nikkei down 0.7% to 23,474.27
Topix down 1.1% to 1,619.79
Hang Seng Index up 0.1% to 24,786.13
Shanghai Composite down 0.4% to 3,312.50
Sensex down 0.5% to 40,521.87
Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.3% to 6,173.75
Kospi down 0.7% to 2,355.05
Top Overnight News from Bloomberg
Germany should brace for a continued rapid spread of the coronavirus and the number of serious infections and deaths is sure to rise, the nation’s RKI public health institute warned Thursday; Germany joined Italy in reporting another record gain in coronavirus infections, as France and Spain became the first countries in Western Europe to pass 1 million cases since the start of the pandemic
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin will pick up discussions a stimulus package again Thursday with time running ever shorter for a deal before the election and President Donald Trump seeking to blame Democrats for any failure
Riding on the coattails of this week’s record-busting European Union bond sale, Italy is tapping into demand from yield-hungry investors. Orders have already exceeded 70 billion euros ($83 billion) at the nation’s 30-year bond offering through banks on Thursday, according to a person familiar with the sale, who asked not to be identified because they’re not authorized to speak about it. Price guidance has been tightened to about seven basis points over similar-maturity debt from 10 basis points earlier, the person said
China is preparing to grant additional quota for funds to invest in securities overseas, Caixin reported, a move that would allow more capital to flow out of the country
Asia-Pac equities traded with losses across the board as the region took its cue from the downbeat Wall Street handover, which saw the Dow reverse its earlier gains and the S&P and Nasdaq close the day with modest losses as participants tracked stimulus developments. In terms of the electronic reopen, US equity futures opened flat but lost ground after the FBI Director announced that US has identified Russia and Iran to have taken action in order to interfere with the 2020 election, with under a fortnight to go until voters head to the polls. This sentiment reverberated into APAC indices – losses in the ASX 200 (-0.3%) were led by the oil and mining sectors, whilst Nikkei 225 (-0.7%) saw lacklustre performances across its industrial, auto and pharma names, while airliner ANA holdings fell to the foot of the index after sources suggested the Co. is to post a record annual loss and shed half of its fleet. KOSPI (-0.7%) also held onto losses in-line with the regional performance, whilst a South Korean business lobby group called on Japan to ease its restrictions on exports of key industrial products to South Korea in a bid to help improve strained ties between the two countries. In China, Hang Seng (+0.1%) and Shanghai Comp. (-0.4%) conformed to the glum tone, and with geopolitical tensions heating up as the Pentagon confirmed last week’s source reports that it notified US Congress of three possible military sales to Taiwan, a move repeatedly contested by Beijing. Finally, JGB futures track action in the fixed income futures complex amid a lack of pertinent data, auctions or news flow.
Top Asian News
Thai Premier Lifts Bangkok State of Emergency From Thursday
Hong Kong’s Property Market Takes Hit From Cathay Job Cuts
State Department Approves $1.8 Billion in Weapons for Taiwan
European equities (Eurostoxx 50 -0.2%) are so far enduring another session of losses with downside in futures accelerating once again alongside the opening of cash products; however, as we enter US hours we have seen a modest pick-up in performance with price action moving closer to the U/C mark on the day – for reference, ES -0.2%. As was the case yesterday, there was a lack of incremental macro catalysts (beyond some of the slightly more downbeat updates on the US stimulus front yesterday) for the move in what has been a relatively busy morning of corporate updates for the region thus far. Sectors trade relatively mixed on the session with slight underperformance observed in health care and oil & gas names with the latter unable to benefit from a modest pick-up in crude prices. Notably, and in spite of downbeat COVID updates from Spain and Germany, travel & leisure names are eking mild gains. Of note and of concern for the sector, prelim Q3 results for IAG (U/C; initially -5.0%) saw the Co. miss on revenue expectations, lower capacity and downgrade its outlook in what is set to be a tough earnings season for airliners. Food & beverage names have been granted some reprieve by earnings from Pernod Ricard (+2.7%) who exceeded expectations for Q1 revenue and anticipate a return to growth by H2. Also, of note for the CAC 40 is gains in Schneider Electric (+2.5%) post-earnings with the Co. beating expectations of revenues and raising FY guidance. Other notable corporate updates include Unilever (+0.4%) who posted a beat on revenues and underlying sales growth whilst maintaining its dividend. To the downside, there were a slew of disappointing Scandi earnings from the likes of Telia (-2.2%), Alfa Laval (-3.0%) and SEB (-1.6%) who are notable laggards within the Stoxx 600.
Top European News
Siberia Gold Field Has World’s Largest Reserves, Polyus Says
Germany’s New Coronavirus Cases Jump to a Record of 12,331
Pandemic Out Of Control in Parts of Spain, Health Minister Says
British Airways Owner Cuts Flights as Virus Surge Hits Sales
In FX, some respite for the Greenback after Wednesday’s steeper decline and all round selling pushed the index down through 92.500, but the recovery looks fragile amidst the ongoing impasse on US fiscal stimulus and inferences that a deal may well not be settled until after the election, even though the 2 sides are said to have narrowed differences and further talks are scheduled. The DXY and Buck more broadly may also be drawing underlying support on sentimental or psychological grounds, if not truly technical impulses, given the fact that a pseudo double bottom was not breached to expose 92.000, albeit many pundits point out that the bearish trend and tide will unlikely turn unless the index rebounds through 93.000 and holds above the round number. Ahead, IJC, housing data and a trio of Fed speaker and the DXY is currently near the top of a 92.903-603 range.
NZD/NOK – The Kiwi and Norwegian Crown are both former against the grain, with the former benefiting from Aud/Nzd tailwinds rather than NZ specifics ahead of Q3 CPI data, but the latter perhaps gleaning traction from a marked improvement in Q3 industrial sentiment rather than labour force survey-based unemployment that was higher than expected in August. Nzd/Usd is holding comfortably above 0.6650 as the cross hovers around 1.0660, while Eur/Nok is still eyeing support ahead of 10.9000 after repelling several upside approaches towards or just beyond 11.0000.
CAD/JPY/EUR/GBP/AUD/CHF – All narrowly mixed vs their US counterpart, with the Loonie paring post-Canadian retail sales losses between 1.3177-36 parameters and the Yen pivoting 104.60 following yesterday’s big figure+ ascent through decent option expiries and prior October highs. However, today’s expiry interests may offer more resistance, as 2.9 bn lie at 104.55-50 and 2.1 bn from 104.10 to 104.00 that coincides with last month’s Usd/Jpy low. Elsewhere, the Euro is straddling 1.1850, the Pound is consolidating circa 1.3100 awaiting BoE rhetoric, Chancellor Sunak and probably any Brexit developments as trade talks resume above all else. Meanwhile, the Aussie is just keeping sights on 0.7100 in advance of October PMIs and the Franc continues to straddle 0.9050 in wake of a somewhat mixed Swiss KOF Autumn update outlining 2 scenarios (baseline -3.6% 2020 GDP and -4.9% worst case if the pandemic spread persists).
SEK/EM – The Swedish Krona is still lagging and not deriving much momentum from what could be construed as positive news via the Riksbank’s latest business survey showing a gradual recovery in the economic situation and less need on balance to provide financial support to some sectors. Conversely, the Turkish Lira is maintaining a bid unlike other EMs in anticipation of another boost from the CBRT at midday, with the consensus looking for a 175 bp hike.
In commodities, the crude complex has fared somewhat better than European equity bourses & US futures with WTI and Brent currently around the unchanged mark; albeit, most recently the benchmarks have experienced a pull-back from earlier highs. Fundamental updates explicitly for the complex have once again been sparse throughout the European morning aside from bank updates which include ABN Amro forecasting WTI averaging USD 34/bbl in 2020 and USD 43/bbl in 2021, alongside Goldman Sachs expecting a bull market to emerge for commodities in 2021. Given the lack of specific fundamental updates price action will likely once again be at the whim of broader sentiment with focus on stimulus updates ahead of the weekend’s latest deadline from Speaker Pelosi. Elsewhere, amidst the mornings European earnings Anglo American tightened their FY20 copper production guidance to 630-660k/T compared to analysts’ expectations for ~631k/T for the period and the prior 638k/T for FY19. Separately, spot gold is modestly softer this morning as while the DXY remains below the 93.00 mark and was subdued at the start of the European session it has been gradually picking up and remains in proximity to highs; as such, the yellow metal is ~USD 6/oz softer but still a similar magnitude from overnight lows.
US Event Calendar
8:30am: Initial Jobless Claims, est. 870,000, prior 898,000; Continuing Claims, est. 9.63m, prior 10m
10am: Leading Index, est. 0.6%, prior 1.2%
10am: Existing Home Sales, est. 6.3m, prior 6m; Existing Home Sales MoM, est. 5.0%, prior 2.4%
11am: Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity, est. 11, prior 11
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
US equities fluctuated and Treasury yields rose yesterday as markets reacted to yet another day of stimulus negotiations, though uncertainty remained as to whether a deal would be agreed by the election on November 3rd. In some ways it was one of the more positive days for newsflow, with Speaker Pelosi saying that she “has a prospect for an agreement” with Secretary Mnuchin, although she also acknowledged that it might not come together until after the election. White House Chief of Staff Meadows also said that the two sides were aiming to agree on the framework within 48 hours but did not say whether a vote would be held. The Senate remains the biggest hold up in the talks however, with questions as to whether Majority Leader McConnell and other Republican lawmakers there would agree to any bill near the $2.2 trillion that Democrats have been holding out for.
Yesterday McConnell said he may “not mind” going forward with the bill after the election. However it is unclear whether his Republican colleagues would still support it as there have been a number dissenting voices already, including Senator Mitt Romney earlier in the week, while Senator John Thune, the second-ranking Republican Senator, said that the Senate would not have 13 Republican votes to pass the size of stimulus that the Speaker is seeking. Other senior Republicans felt that any deal should be agreed to and passed now, as it may be hard to know how the political mood will be after the election. With less than two weeks to the election, time is running short for both sides.
After moving between gains and losses throughout the day, the S&P 500 ended the session down -0.23%. It was the second smallest loss for the broad index since the end of August, and cyclical industries such as energy (-1.99%), transportation (-1.75%) and banks (-0.82%) led the declines. Intraday, the VIX rose to its highest level in over a month before settling at 28.7pts, which is just slightly down from Tuesday’s two-week high. Meanwhile yields on 10yr Treasuries had risen +3.7bps, rising above 0.8% for the first time since June, though this morning they’re down -1.2bps at 0.811%. There was also a further steepening in the yield curve yesterday, with the 5s30s curve up +2.4bps to a new 3-year high, as the 2s10 curve also steepened (+3.1bps) to its highest since early June. The dollar slid (-0.49%) for the fourth straight session to its lowest level since the first week of September.
Staying on the US, S&P 500 futures have moved lower overnight (-0.67%) overnight after a top US intelligence official (as per Bloomberg) warned that Iran and Russia are attempting to interfere with the presidential election, which will only raise concerns that the result might be disputed. The news is also acting as an overhang on the Asian session with the Nikkei (-0.68%), Hang Seng (-0.14%), Shanghai Comp (-0.83%), Kospi (-0.92%) and Asx (-0.38%) all trading lower this morning. In line with this risk-off move, the US dollar index has moved up +0.20% this morning. Meanwhile, the onshore Chinese yuan is down -0.22%, marking the first decline in 5 sessions after Caixin reported that China is preparing to raise the qualified domestic institutional investor quota by $10bn, which would allow more funds to be invested in securities overseas.
Attention will remain on the US today, as the final presidential debate takes place this evening between President Trump and former Vice President Biden at 9:00pm ET. As we’ve mentioned before, the debates haven’t tended to move the dial much historically, and the unprecedented quantity of early voting this year means that the number of remaining voters will be even lower this time around. Nevertheless, it represents the last set-piece opportunity in which the two candidates will meet, and is one of the final chances to change the contours of the race. In the polling averages, Biden leads Trump by 9.9pts according to FiveThirtyEight and 7.5pts on RealClearPolitics. The format will be the same as the first debate with six 15-minute segments, though to stop interruptions this time, the opening 2-minute answers at the start of each segment will see the other candidate’s microphone muted to prevent interruptions. Subject to news developments, the topics down for discussion tonight are fighting Covid-19, American families, race in America, climate change, national security, and leadership.
On the coronavirus, new records in cases were set across Europe yesterday as governments continue to re-impose restrictions on their citizens. Here in the UK, a record 26,707 cases were confirmed, while the number of hospitalisations in England rose above 6k for the first time since late May. Elsewhere, both Italy (15,199) and the Netherlands (8,789) also reported new highs, and Spain has become the first nation in Western Europe to record 1 million coronavirus cases in total. It should be noted however that testing today is much more widespread than it was during the first wave back in March, so countries are much better at picking up the extent of the virus than they were before. Elsewhere, German health minister Jens Spahn tested positive for the virus, while the Czech Republic announced the closure of all non-essential shops from today in order to stop the virus’ spread. Switzerland is also preparing new measures, with Swiss Interior Minister Berset saying the government was readying a new round of restrictions that would target events and crowds of people.
European assets suffered against the backdrop of rising case numbers, and equities lost further ground across the continent. By the close, the STOXX 600 had fallen another -1.29% yesterday in its 3rd consecutive move lower, while the DAX was down -1.41%. Sovereign bonds declined across the board too, with yields on 10yr bunds (+1.8bps), OATs (+1.7bps) and BTPs (+5.5bps) all moving higher.
Over in the US, New York saw the number of new cases rose above 2,000 for the first time since May. The recent rise in cases is now translating into further hospitalisations in the US with nearly 40k people currently in hospital, the most since late summer. 37 states are reporting increased hospitalisations and 21 of those have reported new records or approaching previous highs in the last week. Elsewhere in the US, trials of vaccines by AstraZeneca and Johnson & Johnson may resume as soon as this week according to US government officials. There was particular interest in the AstraZeneca study after a participant in Brazil died, but Bloomberg reported “a person familiar with the matter” saying that person had not received the shot. Staying on vaccines, the Indian government is expecting a covid-19 vaccine to be ready for sale as early as December if clinical trials are successful. That makes India the third country after the UK and US that could see a vaccine around then. So an important month to watch.
Sterling had its strongest performance against the US Dollar since March yesterday, with a +1.55% advance, as the news came through that the UK had agreed to restart trade talks with the EU. Optimism rose throughout the day, especially following a speech by the EU’s chief negotiator, Michel Barnier, in which he acknowledged compromise from both sides would be required to reach a deal. In a statement saying that talks would now restart from today, Downing Street welcomed this acknowledgement from Barnier, and the two sides have jointly agreed a set of organising principles for the further negotiations, with the initial phase of these taking place in London from today until Sunday. In terms of the reaction elsewhere, gilts lost ground throughout the day, with 10yr yields closing up +5.5bps.
There wasn’t a lot of data to report on yesterday, though CPI inflation in the UK rose to +0.5% in September (vs. +0.6% expected). The release remains below the BoE’s 2% inflation target, and came as BoE Deputy Governor Ramsden also said yesterday that there was “considerable headroom” for more QE. As a reminder, our UK economist’s view is that there’ll be a further £60bn of QE next month. Canada also released their CPI reading yesterday, which similarly showed an increase to +0.5%.
To the day ahead now, and the main highlight will be the aforementioned US presidential debate. Otherwise, data releases today include the weekly initial jobless claims from the US, September’s existing home sales and leading index, as well as the Kansas City Fed manufacturing index for October. From the Euro Area, there’ll also be the advance consumer confidence reading for October. Central Bank speakers include BoE Governor Bailey and chief economist Haldane, the ECB’s Panetta, and the Fed’s Barkin, Daly and Kaplan. The Central Bank of Turkey will also be deciding on rates. And finally, earnings releases include Intel, Coca Cola, AT&T, Danaher and Union Pacific.
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In 2018 Cook was prosecuted by the State of Mississippi for sale of a controlled substance. The case was widely publicized in the local news and public reference was made to Cook’s local Calhoun County business. Cook was acquitted of all charges by a Calhoun County jury. Not content to quietly accept his victory, Cook made disparaging remarks on the internet about various players in his Calhoun County prosecution. He now finds himself defending a charge of internet harassment in Federal Court.
After his acquittal, Cook published a number of posts on his personal Facebook page about his experiences with the criminal justice system. An affidavit of Federal Bureau of Investigation Agent John Marsh specifically mentioned five Facebook posts made by Cook that Marsh believed supported a Criminal Complaint for cyberstalking. [Details moved to the end of this post. -EV]
The Indictment is a one and a half page document in which a grand jury found that Cook threatened Mississippi Bureau of Narcotics Agent Jon Lepicier by “revealing the address of, and names of family members” and “did threaten him and his family by posting:
“I uncovered the family of the arresting person. His real name, parents, grandparents, sisters, wife, nephew, properties owned, past phone numbers, aliases of the whole family, in laws, … which had him very puzzled as to how I did it. He has taken down some resources and Facebook pages or changed them. But I was nice enough to use poetry that only he would understand when posting what I knew;” and
“And God willing I’m going to take them out;”
Interestingly, when you compare the “posts” the government presented to the grand jury in the indictment, to the full posts [see below -EV], it appears that the government “cherry picked” certain statements and re-arranged them in a different sequence and context to give the posts a more ominous effect. In the preceding and intervening sentences of the post that were cut out by the government in the indictment, Cook identified no less than six other persons or entities in the post with whom he had grievances (see references to the First MBN officer on Cook’s state court case, WTVA, the local elected state court judge, the ADA, the DA, and the “local meth dealer”) regarding what he alleged was a fraudulent indictment scheme perpetuated by various elected government officials.
{This Court notes initially that it does not seem fair for the government to be allowed to present statements out of context to a grand jury when context is the critical issue in play. In a now famous interview, former New York State Chief Judge Sol Wachtler stated something along the lines of “a grand jury would ‘indict a ham sandwich’ if that’s what [a prosecutor] wanted.” In the same vein, it does not seem sporting for the government in this case to present evidence as a ham sandwich when all they have is baloney.}
The Court also notes that the government has not alleged that Cook ever directly contacted Mr. Lepicier, any member of Lepicier’s family, or any of the other people he named in his posts via direct message, email, telephone, letter or otherwise. So, for Mr. Lepicier or any of his family members to see Cook’s posts, they would have to actively search for Cook’s Facebook page and scroll through his “wall” to find the actual posts….
[T]he government has not alleged that Cook ever directly contacted any of the subjects of his Facebook posts. Rather, Cook is being prosecuted solely on the content of his public posts – not the act of posting….
Cook’s Facebook posts are not “true threats” precluding him from First Amendment protection. Cook’s posts, when read in context, lack entirely the specificity required to bring them under the umbrella of a true threat. Nowhere in any post does Cook explicitly state that he plans to physically harm Lepicier, or any other named public official. “God willing I’m going to take them out” is not the same as telling an FBI agent you have a pistol and you will use it to kill the president or repeatedly and directly telling another person in a chat room that you were going to kill the students in your high school while making references to one of the Columbine shooters. See respectively, United States v. Howell (5th Cir. 1983); U.S. v. Morales (5th Cir. 2001)….
Additionally, none of the Fifth Circuit [true threats precedents] discuss a situation in which a person’s information, such as address or family members’ names, is shared publicly; a phenomenon sometimes referred to a “doxing” or “doxxing”. Certainly, sharing public information, while potentially offensive and disagreeable, does not rise to the level of a true threat. {[W]hile the Court does not condone publishing publicly available personal information, like a person’s address, there is simply no existing framework in the United States which criminalizes the act of “doxing” or “doxxing” private citizens ….} As such, that portion of the indictment referring to “threaten[ing Jon Lepicier] and his family by posting” must be dismissed. …
While the Court does not find it to be in good taste to post publicly available identifying records, “poems” written which vaguely reference information known about employees of public entities, or to use phrases like “and god willing I’m going to take them out,” the Court recognizes that Mr. Cook does have the constitutionally protected right to say such things. When viewed in their entirety, the five posts of Mr. Cook reproduced above read to be an attempt by Mr. Cook to expose what he views to be misconduct within the Mississippi Bureau of Narcotics, the District Attorney’s Office and the Calhoun County Court System.
Counsel for the defendant argues in her brief that her client’s internet chatter is no more threatening than the jabberings spewed daily from the bully pulpit of the highest office in the land. Indeed, it is a measure of our times that communications on so-called “social media,” traveling under brand names such as Facebook and Twitter, are often jejune and truculent, speaking in slogans, cartoons, symbols, and brief “come-aparts.” Such speech, coarse as it may be, is protected….
Cook is being prosecuted for the content of his public posts. His indictment very clearly states that he is being charged because his posts “caused and would reasonably be expected to cause substantial emotional distress to a person, a spouse of that person or an immediate family member of that person.” Because Cook’s speech allegedly violated the statute by intentionally causing or knowingly reasonably causing emotional distress to Lepicier and/or his family specifically on Facebook, the portion of 18 U.S.C. § 2261A(2)(B) relied on in the Indictment amounts to a content-based restriction.
Since the statute as applied to Cook is content-based, the Government has the burden of showing that the content-based restriction “is necessary to service a compelling state interest.” Here though, … the benefit of the content based restriction to shield sensibilities of the listener or reader is just not enough to supplant a citizen’s right to uncomfortable public discourse. Here, Lepicier, his family, the local state court judge, the ADA, the DA, the local meth dealer, and the local news station all have the ability to protect their “own sensibilities simply by averting” their eyes from Cook’s Facebook page, and as such § 2261A(2)(B) as applied to Cook’s Facebook’s posts does not survive strict scrutiny and the Indictment must be dismissed.
Here’s more on the posts:
On June 27, 2019 Cook posted on his Facebook account:
I have a friend who had an issue in court. The date of her charge was changed for some reason. But she didn’t have any documentation. So I asked if she took or received a lot of photos and she said yes. I asked her about the meta data and she said that her attorney said metadata can be altered. I asked if she posted photos on Facebook because they keep the photos on a “timeline” … I doubt any party could alter Facebook’s timeline. . unless they could be like Superman and reverse the spinning of the earth … [that will be one heck of an “app for that!”] So my point is that a dated Facebook post of a photo could prove it was taken then or before. .so this is how she can use Facebook in court. People that have secrets are equally concerned with Facebook because of the power it gives an average joe … so socialize, enjoy, and post photos … The great equalizer is the gun but Facebook runs a close 2nd … and what you need is there … ready to be revealed … God willing …
The government alleges Cook posted the following on Facebook on August 19, 20191:
Cowards Creekmore and Mueller [presumably referring to the prosecutors in Cook’s state court case] and cowardly judges. Cowardly crooked public defenders. Step down. Dixie Mafia likes to talk about making the wrong people mad. Well congratulations. You did. God gave me a good jury. Now I’m gonna give you what you have been giving my brothers and sisters … you are finished. Because I’m coming and hell is coming with me. And I’m not just quoting a movie.
The voluble Cook made two separate posts on January 21, 2020, first:
** Image appearing to be a screenshot of information found on the internet regarding Mississippi Bureau of Narcotics officer Jon Lepicier, including an address and potential aliases **
You know that moment when your undercover aliases gets listed as ‘Jon Cop?’. don’t worry I’m not going to put the fam on here…. that karma though …
This was followed by a post several hours later stating:
One poem then but that’s it ok? Dedicated to Jamar “JP Smooth” Peterson … I’m in the class of 07 At Oak Hill Academy But that’s Jonathan Lepicier Jon Davis is my name I tried to convince Casey That I’m really Jon M dad ain’t Bob he’s like Richard Leon I became a new guy in 2013 That’s when JL hit the scene. I’m here I’m there super coll and super Fun. Don’t you think Avery goes well with Jun? My folks got like 12 boats and a house in Odessa. sounds like my wife’s alias kinda Without the O or the A Ol buddy you know when you stopped at my restaurant … started your lyin? I’ll never forget when they told me later “I thought his name was Brian” The end
Finally, on January 23, 2020 Cook posted the following status update:
For those of you who read the stuff about my run ins with supposed law enforcers of the state of MS, I’m going to try to explain it without getting too wordy. The first MBN guy that got after me was someone I had known for a while. He had issues with substance abuse during service among many other “questionable things. He saw me playing guitar at church and formed an idea that I was dealing drugs and hookers and using church as a front. His own ideas. I found out how extremely naïve it can be to believe a badge because of the badge. But the town soaked the rumor up like a sponge. This MBN guy was removed due to his own conduct and that is where the second guy came in. He got an alias and went undercover in 2013. His name pretty much vanished from the internet. He is the one who arrested me in my bathroom. They searched my home. Didn’t find any meth anywhere. Had a rubber stamp warrant with my name on it. And a copied stamp of local judge. Judge rushes a few words by me. (I had a right to a hearing which I didn’t get, etc. He couldn’t talk about the case). Didn’t know anything about it.) .. I bonded out for $575.00, meaning they really didn’t have evidence of a sale of meth but that was the charge. Of course MBN wanted to use my personal knowledge and facilities to set up others but I refused. When I got out of jail the story on WTVA news was a picture of me, a mugshot, with a history of dealing dope out of my motel, it said they had investigated me for 6 months and that I had 3.5 grams of meth on me. That’s when it hit me that the guys in jail were right. I had been used as a distraction. I later found out what happened that day. July 19, 2018. Knowing there could be no evidence so no grand jury, I went to work getting after their butt while they send in more people hoping to get the evidence they had already charged and arrested and slandered by fake news without … I uncovered a Ponzi scheme indictment system, where the prosecution and many defenders across MS work together. They self indict every possible felony whether evidenced or not. The forgeries are endless and obvious to the untrained eye. They see what lawyer you have. He could be on the team. They aren’t likely to dismiss because the ace in the hole is cheating in court … we caught 3 errors that would have overturned had they gotten conviction. Not to mention the arresting officer has everything he needs already. He knows his team has his back. He even signed for foreman and ADA. The DA over the whole district came to help put me away because he knew I had discovered his bottom up frivolous indictment system. (I termed it BUFI). I emailed him many times. They know it’s wrong and they know getting away with murder here is easy … but Facebook gets them extremely stressed out. Just go to the courthouse and as ADA, who I refer to as TJ … he is very angry over my facebook. But it’s all true and that will come to light soon enough. The rest of the scheme is … hold back discovery 8 months to a year and write continuances without consent to take asway Speedy trial right, hoping defendant will plead, which they do 100% of the time … minus one case … mine. Now for me it’s war. I’m sick of the corruption in this state. Sick of the scapegoating and unsolved murders, cover ups and fake news so that the whole system is too busy covering up to do any justice elsewhere. It’s a mess and the people turn a blind eye here. Those that could help remain passive. Those that can’t pay just get stuck in the thing or get stuck in drug court whether they do drugs or not and those that try them, get cheated and sent off. They pay probating and restitution to the county, the arresting, the appointed lawyer and whatever else they can tack on. My own loved ones won’t acknowledge my truth half the time, so I don’t care what anyone thinks. I uncovered the family of the arresting person. His real name, parents, grandparents, sisters, wife, nephew, properties owned, past phone numbers, aliases of the whole family, in laws … which had him very puzzled as to how I did it. But I was nice enough to use poetry that only he would understand when posting what I knew. This guy has had affairs and paid numerous people to get something on me since early 2017, including his only witness, a real meth dealer. How ironic (sigh) … I guess carrying the torch of his brother in arms and certainly angry that I make them look like little Johnny in the 4th grade. And God willing I’m going to take them out. With or without the help of the people. So far he has been willing and all credit be to him.
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During its initial round of reports involving emails and photos allegedly belonging to Hunter Biden, which had been gleaned from a laptop the political scion had allegedly abandoned at a Delaware computer-repair shop (some on the left insist that the material was hacked, but they didn’t dispute the authenticity), the New York Post confirmed that the FBI had taken the original laptop from John Paul Mac Isaac, the shop owner who originally reported the laptop after finding “disturbing content” on its hard drive.
To back this up, the New York Post published several documents showing the subpoena and ‘Request for Property’ forms from the FBI. Now, Fox News is reporting that the FBI seized the laptop for its connection with a money laundering investigation in late 2019.
According to Fox News, multiple federal law enforcement officials, as well as two separate government officials, confirmed the authenticity of these documents, which bore the signature of FBI Special Agent Joshua Wilson.
The document has a “Case ID” section, which is filled in with a hand-written number: 272D-BA-3065729.
Citing its official sources, Fox News explains that “272” is the bureau classification number for ‘money laundering’. while ‘272D’ refers specifically to “Money Laundering, Unknown SUA [Specified Unlawful Activity]—White Collar Crime Program.” One official described the ‘D’ designation as meaning “transnational or blanket” crime.
“BA” means the report was filed at the Baltimore field office, which has jurisdiction in Wilmington, where the subpoena was carried out.
Since the FBI can’t open a case without “sufficient evidence” that there was a crime committed, the paperwork suggests that the “disturbing” images that both Mac and Rudy Giuliani have alluded to might have constituted some kind of criminal activity, be it “child pornography”, as Giuliani has complained, or something else.
Another document obtained by Fox News was a subpoena for JPMI to testify last December, which also suggests that laptop and the hard drive may have carried the “fruits” of criminal activity.
As he recently discussed, Giuliani, this week, turned over a copy of the hard drive to New Castle County Police Department in Delaware.
Last week, DNI John Ratclife confirmed that the Hunter Biden emails weren’t a part of some “Russian disinformation campaign,” and it appears Fox News’ FBI sources weren’t very helpful in d uncovering the nature of the crime, or the investigation, that may or may not be ongoing (since all of this apparently happened a year ago).
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In 2018 Cook was prosecuted by the State of Mississippi for sale of a controlled substance. The case was widely publicized in the local news and public reference was made to Cook’s local Calhoun County business. Cook was acquitted of all charges by a Calhoun County jury. Not content to quietly accept his victory, Cook made disparaging remarks on the internet about various players in his Calhoun County prosecution. He now finds himself defending a charge of internet harassment in Federal Court.
After his acquittal, Cook published a number of posts on his personal Facebook page about his experiences with the criminal justice system. An affidavit of Federal Bureau of Investigation Agent John Marsh specifically mentioned five Facebook posts made by Cook that Marsh believed supported a Criminal Complaint for cyberstalking. [Details moved to the end of this post. -EV]
The Indictment is a one and a half page document in which a grand jury found that Cook threatened Mississippi Bureau of Narcotics Agent Jon Lepicier by “revealing the address of, and names of family members” and “did threaten him and his family by posting:
“I uncovered the family of the arresting person. His real name, parents, grandparents, sisters, wife, nephew, properties owned, past phone numbers, aliases of the whole family, in laws, … which had him very puzzled as to how I did it. He has taken down some resources and Facebook pages or changed them. But I was nice enough to use poetry that only he would understand when posting what I knew;” and
“And God willing I’m going to take them out;”
Interestingly, when you compare the “posts” the government presented to the grand jury in the indictment, to the full posts [see below -EV], it appears that the government “cherry picked” certain statements and re-arranged them in a different sequence and context to give the posts a more ominous effect. In the preceding and intervening sentences of the post that were cut out by the government in the indictment, Cook identified no less than six other persons or entities in the post with whom he had grievances (see references to the First MBN officer on Cook’s state court case, WTVA, the local elected state court judge, the ADA, the DA, and the “local meth dealer”) regarding what he alleged was a fraudulent indictment scheme perpetuated by various elected government officials.
{This Court notes initially that it does not seem fair for the government to be allowed to present statements out of context to a grand jury when context is the critical issue in play. In a now famous interview, former New York State Chief Judge Sol Wachtler stated something along the lines of “a grand jury would ‘indict a ham sandwich’ if that’s what [a prosecutor] wanted.” In the same vein, it does not seem sporting for the government in this case to present evidence as a ham sandwich when all they have is baloney.}
The Court also notes that the government has not alleged that Cook ever directly contacted Mr. Lepicier, any member of Lepicier’s family, or any of the other people he named in his posts via direct message, email, telephone, letter or otherwise. So, for Mr. Lepicier or any of his family members to see Cook’s posts, they would have to actively search for Cook’s Facebook page and scroll through his “wall” to find the actual posts….
[T]he government has not alleged that Cook ever directly contacted any of the subjects of his Facebook posts. Rather, Cook is being prosecuted solely on the content of his public posts – not the act of posting….
Cook’s Facebook posts are not “true threats” precluding him from First Amendment protection. Cook’s posts, when read in context, lack entirely the specificity required to bring them under the umbrella of a true threat. Nowhere in any post does Cook explicitly state that he plans to physically harm Lepicier, or any other named public official. “God willing I’m going to take them out” is not the same as telling an FBI agent you have a pistol and you will use it to kill the president or repeatedly and directly telling another person in a chat room that you were going to kill the students in your high school while making references to one of the Columbine shooters. See respectively, United States v. Howell (5th Cir. 1983); U.S. v. Morales (5th Cir. 2001)….
Additionally, none of the Fifth Circuit [true threats precedents] discuss a situation in which a person’s information, such as address or family members’ names, is shared publicly; a phenomenon sometimes referred to a “doxing” or “doxxing”. Certainly, sharing public information, while potentially offensive and disagreeable, does not rise to the level of a true threat. {[W]hile the Court does not condone publishing publicly available personal information, like a person’s address, there is simply no existing framework in the United States which criminalizes the act of “doxing” or “doxxing” private citizens ….} As such, that portion of the indictment referring to “threaten[ing Jon Lepicier] and his family by posting” must be dismissed. …
While the Court does not find it to be in good taste to post publicly available identifying records, “poems” written which vaguely reference information known about employees of public entities, or to use phrases like “and god willing I’m going to take them out,” the Court recognizes that Mr. Cook does have the constitutionally protected right to say such things. When viewed in their entirety, the five posts of Mr. Cook reproduced above read to be an attempt by Mr. Cook to expose what he views to be misconduct within the Mississippi Bureau of Narcotics, the District Attorney’s Office and the Calhoun County Court System.
Counsel for the defendant argues in her brief that her client’s internet chatter is no more threatening than the jabberings spewed daily from the bully pulpit of the highest office in the land. Indeed, it is a measure of our times that communications on so-called “social media,” traveling under brand names such as Facebook and Twitter, are often jejune and truculent, speaking in slogans, cartoons, symbols, and brief “come-aparts.” Such speech, coarse as it may be, is protected….
Cook is being prosecuted for the content of his public posts. His indictment very clearly states that he is being charged because his posts “caused and would reasonably be expected to cause substantial emotional distress to a person, a spouse of that person or an immediate family member of that person.” Because Cook’s speech allegedly violated the statute by intentionally causing or knowingly reasonably causing emotional distress to Lepicier and/or his family specifically on Facebook, the portion of 18 U.S.C. § 2261A(2)(B) relied on in the Indictment amounts to a content-based restriction.
Since the statute as applied to Cook is content-based, the Government has the burden of showing that the content-based restriction “is necessary to service a compelling state interest.” Here though, … the benefit of the content based restriction to shield sensibilities of the listener or reader is just not enough to supplant a citizen’s right to uncomfortable public discourse. Here, Lepicier, his family, the local state court judge, the ADA, the DA, the local meth dealer, and the local news station all have the ability to protect their “own sensibilities simply by averting” their eyes from Cook’s Facebook page, and as such § 2261A(2)(B) as applied to Cook’s Facebook’s posts does not survive strict scrutiny and the Indictment must be dismissed.
Here’s more on the posts:
On June 27, 2019 Cook posted on his Facebook account:
I have a friend who had an issue in court. The date of her charge was changed for some reason. But she didn’t have any documentation. So I asked if she took or received a lot of photos and she said yes. I asked her about the meta data and she said that her attorney said metadata can be altered. I asked if she posted photos on Facebook because they keep the photos on a “timeline” … I doubt any party could alter Facebook’s timeline. . unless they could be like Superman and reverse the spinning of the earth … [that will be one heck of an “app for that!”] So my point is that a dated Facebook post of a photo could prove it was taken then or before. .so this is how she can use Facebook in court. People that have secrets are equally concerned with Facebook because of the power it gives an average joe … so socialize, enjoy, and post photos … The great equalizer is the gun but Facebook runs a close 2nd … and what you need is there … ready to be revealed … God willing …
The government alleges Cook posted the following on Facebook on August 19, 20191:
Cowards Creekmore and Mueller [presumably referring to the prosecutors in Cook’s state court case] and cowardly judges. Cowardly crooked public defenders. Step down. Dixie Mafia likes to talk about making the wrong people mad. Well congratulations. You did. God gave me a good jury. Now I’m gonna give you what you have been giving my brothers and sisters … you are finished. Because I’m coming and hell is coming with me. And I’m not just quoting a movie.
The voluble Cook made two separate posts on January 21, 2020, first:
** Image appearing to be a screenshot of information found on the internet regarding Mississippi Bureau of Narcotics officer Jon Lepicier, including an address and potential aliases **
You know that moment when your undercover aliases gets listed as ‘Jon Cop?’. don’t worry I’m not going to put the fam on here…. that karma though …
This was followed by a post several hours later stating:
One poem then but that’s it ok? Dedicated to Jamar “JP Smooth” Peterson … I’m in the class of 07 At Oak Hill Academy But that’s Jonathan Lepicier Jon Davis is my name I tried to convince Casey That I’m really Jon M dad ain’t Bob he’s like Richard Leon I became a new guy in 2013 That’s when JL hit the scene. I’m here I’m there super coll and super Fun. Don’t you think Avery goes well with Jun? My folks got like 12 boats and a house in Odessa. sounds like my wife’s alias kinda Without the O or the A Ol buddy you know when you stopped at my restaurant … started your lyin? I’ll never forget when they told me later “I thought his name was Brian” The end
Finally, on January 23, 2020 Cook posted the following status update:
For those of you who read the stuff about my run ins with supposed law enforcers of the state of MS, I’m going to try to explain it without getting too wordy. The first MBN guy that got after me was someone I had known for a while. He had issues with substance abuse during service among many other “questionable things. He saw me playing guitar at church and formed an idea that I was dealing drugs and hookers and using church as a front. His own ideas. I found out how extremely naïve it can be to believe a badge because of the badge. But the town soaked the rumor up like a sponge. This MBN guy was removed due to his own conduct and that is where the second guy came in. He got an alias and went undercover in 2013. His name pretty much vanished from the internet. He is the one who arrested me in my bathroom. They searched my home. Didn’t find any meth anywhere. Had a rubber stamp warrant with my name on it. And a copied stamp of local judge. Judge rushes a few words by me. (I had a right to a hearing which I didn’t get, etc. He couldn’t talk about the case). Didn’t know anything about it.) .. I bonded out for $575.00, meaning they really didn’t have evidence of a sale of meth but that was the charge. Of course MBN wanted to use my personal knowledge and facilities to set up others but I refused. When I got out of jail the story on WTVA news was a picture of me, a mugshot, with a history of dealing dope out of my motel, it said they had investigated me for 6 months and that I had 3.5 grams of meth on me. That’s when it hit me that the guys in jail were right. I had been used as a distraction. I later found out what happened that day. July 19, 2018. Knowing there could be no evidence so no grand jury, I went to work getting after their butt while they send in more people hoping to get the evidence they had already charged and arrested and slandered by fake news without … I uncovered a Ponzi scheme indictment system, where the prosecution and many defenders across MS work together. They self indict every possible felony whether evidenced or not. The forgeries are endless and obvious to the untrained eye. They see what lawyer you have. He could be on the team. They aren’t likely to dismiss because the ace in the hole is cheating in court … we caught 3 errors that would have overturned had they gotten conviction. Not to mention the arresting officer has everything he needs already. He knows his team has his back. He even signed for foreman and ADA. The DA over the whole district came to help put me away because he knew I had discovered his bottom up frivolous indictment system. (I termed it BUFI). I emailed him many times. They know it’s wrong and they know getting away with murder here is easy … but Facebook gets them extremely stressed out. Just go to the courthouse and as ADA, who I refer to as TJ … he is very angry over my facebook. But it’s all true and that will come to light soon enough. The rest of the scheme is … hold back discovery 8 months to a year and write continuances without consent to take asway Speedy trial right, hoping defendant will plead, which they do 100% of the time … minus one case … mine. Now for me it’s war. I’m sick of the corruption in this state. Sick of the scapegoating and unsolved murders, cover ups and fake news so that the whole system is too busy covering up to do any justice elsewhere. It’s a mess and the people turn a blind eye here. Those that could help remain passive. Those that can’t pay just get stuck in the thing or get stuck in drug court whether they do drugs or not and those that try them, get cheated and sent off. They pay probating and restitution to the county, the arresting, the appointed lawyer and whatever else they can tack on. My own loved ones won’t acknowledge my truth half the time, so I don’t care what anyone thinks. I uncovered the family of the arresting person. His real name, parents, grandparents, sisters, wife, nephew, properties owned, past phone numbers, aliases of the whole family, in laws … which had him very puzzled as to how I did it. But I was nice enough to use poetry that only he would understand when posting what I knew. This guy has had affairs and paid numerous people to get something on me since early 2017, including his only witness, a real meth dealer. How ironic (sigh) … I guess carrying the torch of his brother in arms and certainly angry that I make them look like little Johnny in the 4th grade. And God willing I’m going to take them out. With or without the help of the people. So far he has been willing and all credit be to him.
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Turkish Lira Crashes To Record Low After Another Central Bank Surprise Tyler Durden
Thu, 10/22/2020 – 07:40
The central bank of Turkey continues to surprise markets.
One month after the Turkish central bank stunned FX traders on Sept 24 when the covid-cripped economy whose FX reserves are collapsing announced a 200bps rate hike, going into today’s meeting the consensus of 27 analysts was for the CBRT to hike by another 150-200 bps with a median forecast for an increase of 175 basis points to 12%, and the lira surging in recent days to reflect that.
However, it was not meant to be, and in the second Turkish shock in one month, the Turkish central bank instead left the reference rate on hold. The press release said that “a significant tightening in financial conditions has been achieved, following the monetary policy and liquidity management steps taken to contain inflation expectations and risks to the inflation outlook. Accordingly, the Committee has decided to keep the policy rate unchanged, while enhancing flexibility in liquidity management and continuing with liquidity measures until inflation outlook displays a significant improvement.”
However in yet another surprise, while the CBRT kept the policy rate on hold, the central bank adopted unconventional tightening by setting the margin between the CBRT Late Liquidity Window lending rate and overnight lending rate as 300bps. That means the LLW lending rate is now 14.75% vs 13.25% prior and that the central bank perhaps prefers less conventional measures going forward, in what appears to be a market test of how traders would respond.
Well, they did not respond as the CBRT had desired because in kneejerk reaction, the USDTRY rallied 2% on the decision, plunging to a new record low of 7.9797…
… and just shy of the 8.00 psychological level, as all those who were expecting a continuation of the tightening cycle were just stopped out.
And that’s how you lose money in an instant if you expect continuity from an authoritarian ruler.
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