On Hypocrisy

Hypocrisy, n.  A feigning to be what one is not, or to believe what one does not believe. Behavior that contradicts what one claims to believe or feel. [Merriam-Webster’s Third Collegiate Dictionary]

As the World’s Greatest Deliberative Body—now there’s a phrase you don’t hear very much these days!—begins hearings on the Barrett nomination, there’s much talk about the stench of hypocrisy wafting over the process. The Republicans, having defended their decision not to consider Merrick Garland’s nomination in 2016 on the grounds that they wanted to “let the people decide,”*** now do seem to be engaged in “behavior that contradicts what they claim to believe.”

***Just for the record, I have appended to this essay a compilation of the statements made by leading Republican Senators in 2016 to defend their decision not to hold hearings or otherwise act on the Garland nomination. If you have forgotten the explanations they provided to the American people for their actions, you might want to refresh your recollection by reading over that collection.

But there is an argument—I’m not sure whether or not it qualifies as a “trope” or a “meme”—making the rounds these days, arguing that both sides, Republicans and Democrats alike, share in the hypocrisy, in equal measure.

The argument is based on the apparently symmetrical position of the two parties. It goes something like this:

In 2016, Democrats said “the Senate should consider the president’s nominee during a presidential election campaign,” but in 2020 they say it shouldn’t. In 2016, Republicans said “the Senate should wait and let the people decide,” but in 2020 they say it shouldn’t.

See? Should/shouldn’t, shouldn’t/should. Six of one, half-dozen of the other. So much hypocrisy, on both sides!

Disturbingly, I’ve heard this argument from otherwise intelligent and reasonable folks; otherwise, I would simply dismiss it as partisan silliness. It is ill-logical and flat-out wrong, because the positions of the two parties are not symmetrical.  An illustration might make this clear.

Robbie Republican and Debbie Democrat have had a regular high-stakes craps game in the Senate cloakroom for many years. They had a number of informal rules. One was that the games would last for exactly one hour—there was important public business to attend to!  Another was that if the dice fell off the table after a throw, you get to throw again.

During a game in 2016, with 15 minutes to go in their game, Debbie threw the dice and one fell off the table. She picked up the dice again to re-throw, but Robbie grabbed the dice from her hand and said: “No, the re-throw rule doesn’t apply when we’re near the end of the game.” Debbie protested, arguing vehemently that there was no such “end-of-game” exception to the re-throw rule, but Robbie, who was holding the dice, prevailed.

In 2020 they’re at it again.  With three minutes to go in their game, Robbie rolls and—oops!—the dice fall off the table.  He picks them up.

Robbie: “I get to roll again.” 

Debbie: “Wait just a minute!! You said the re-throw rule doesn’t apply when we’re near the end of the game. And that was when there were 15 minutes left! We’re a lot closer to the end now, and you’re telling me the re-throw rule does apply?!”

Robbie: “Yes. The ‘end-of-game’ exception doesn’t apply when I’m winning, only when you’re winning. Plus, I’m holding the dice, and I can do what I want with them. I’m rolling again.”

Look familiar?  Debbie said the re-throw rule does apply near the end of the game in 2016, but now says it doesn’t.  Robbie said the re-throw rule doesn’t apply near the end of the game in 2016, but now says it does.

But the hypocrisy here is all on one side. If you have a fourth-grader in your house, ask him/her—fourth-graders usually have a pretty good sense for what’s fair and what’s not.  The situation is not symmetrical at all. There was an argument about the re-throw rule in 2016. The Democrats/Debbie—the Blue Team—lost the argument. It is not “hypocrisy” for them to invoke the rule in 2020, even if they still believe, in their heart of hearts, that the 2016 rule is a terrible one.  It is not “hypocrisy” to pay your federal income taxes even if you believe, in your heart of hearts, that taxation is unconstitutional.  It is not “hypocrisy” for a judge to apply a rule that he/she thinks ill-formed or ill-advised. It is not “hypocrisy” for you to invoke a zoning regulation against your neighbor’s overhanging oak tree, even if the week before you (unsuccessfully) argued at the city council meeting for a repeal of all zoning regulations.

And when Robbie throws Debbie’s words from 2016 back against her—”Hey, you’re the one who said there shouldn’t be an end-of-game exception to the re-throw rule, and now you want one?! Listen to you!!”—he’s being kind of a shit, wouldn’t you agree? [If not, remind me never to play craps with you]

There is a second argument, beyond the ridiculous “everyone’s a hypocrite” argument, that the Red Team has advanced to defend its actions here. “We are actually consistent in our actions in 2016 and 2020,” they say, “because our actions are based on a single principle: When there is a Supreme Court vacancy during a presidential election year, the Senate should wait and ‘let the people decide’ if the Senate and the White House are in different hands, but not otherwise.”

Aside from looking like a pretty transparent attempt to concoct some sort of ex post rationalization for the earlier action—akin to something like “the Senate should wait and let the people decide when the deceased Justice is from Queens, but not if she’s from Brooklyn”—where did this supposed principle come from, and what sense does it make?

The idea seems to be that when the government is divided, there will be a stalemate, and protracted partisan wrangling, that will further polarize and politicize the atmosphere. No such problem will arise when the president and the Senate are in the same hands.

But why need there be a stalemate?  It’s a little disingenuous to create a stalemate (“No hearings for Judge Garland”) and justify it with reference to a principle that there will always be a stalemate.  Dozens and dozen of Supreme Court Justices have been nominated and confirmed when the White House and the Senate were controlled by different parties, from Anthony Kennedy to Clarence Thomas to David Souter to John Paul Stevens to Earl Warren to Potter Stewart to William Brennan . . . In many peoples’ eyes (including mine) divided government like this is—or used to be—a feature, not a bug; it caused presidents to nominate individuals ideologically acceptable to both parties. People like Merrick Garland, for instance. We used to call it “compromise.”

*******************************

Appendix.  Republican Senators Speak (2016)

“This critical decision should be made after the upcoming presidential election so that the American people have a voice.” Richard Shelby, Alabama

“The decision to withhold advancement of Mr. Garland’s nomination isn’t about the individual, it’s about the principle. Alaskans, like all Americans, are in the midst of an important national election. The next Supreme Court justice could fundamentally change the direction of the Court for years to come. Alaskans deserve to have a voice in that direction through their vote, and we will ensure that they have one.” Dan Sullivan, Alaska

“Our country is very split and we are in the midst of a highly contested presidential election. My colleagues and I are committed to giving the American people a voice in the direction the court will take for generations to come.” John Boozman, Arkansas

“Why would we squelch the voice of the populace? Why would we deny the voters a chance to weigh in on the make-up of the Supreme Court?” Tom Cotton, Arkansas

“I don’t think we should be moving forward on a nominee in the last year of this president’s term. I would say that if this was a Republlcian president.” Marco Rubio, Florida

“A lifetime appointment that could dramatically impact individual freedoms and change the direction of the court for at least a generation is too important to get bogged down in politics. The American people shouldn’t be denied a voice. Chuck Grassley, Iowa

“In the midst of a critical election, the American people deserve to have a say in this important decision that will impact the course of our country for years to come.” Joni Ernst, Iowa

“Given that we are in the midst of the presidential election process, we believe that the American people should seize the opportunity to weigh in.” Mitch McConnell, Kentucky

“The American people should have the opportunity to make their voices heard before filling a lifetime appointment to the nation’s highest court. In November, the country will get that chance by choosing a new president – a process that is well underway. Until then, our time should be spent addressing the many other legislative matters before us to strengthen our economy, create jobs, and secure our nation.” Roger Wicker, Mississippi

“The replacement of Justice Scalia will have far-reaching impacts on our country for a generation. The American people have already begun voting on who the next president will be and their voice should continue to be reflected in a process that will have lasting implications on our nation. The U.S. Senate should exercise its constitutional powers by not confirming a new Supreme Court justice until the American people elect a new president and have their voices heard.” Steve Daines, Montana

“It is crucial for Nebraskans and all Americans to have a voice in the selection of the next person to serve a lifetime appointment on the Supreme Court, and there is precedent to do so. Therefore, I believe this position should not be filled until the election of a new president.” Deb Fischer, Nebraska

“The American people deserve a voice in the nomination of the next Supreme Court Justice. This appointment could easily tip the balance of the court in a direction not supported by the American people.” Richard Burr, North Carolina

“We are in the middle of a presidential election, and the Senate majority is giving the American people a voice to determine the direction of the Supreme Court.” Thom Tillis, North Carolina

“During a very partisan year and a presidential election year … both for the sake of the court and the integrity of the court and the legitimacy of the candidate, it’s better to have this occur after we’re past this presidential election.” Rob Portman, Ohio

“I firmly believe we must let the people decide the Supreme Court’s future.” Jim Inhofe, Oklahoma

“I support Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and Judiciary Committee Chairman Chuck Grassley’s intent to give the American people a say in Justice Scalia’s replacement this year at the ballot box.” James Lankford, Oklahoma

“With the U.S. Supreme Court’s balance at stake, and with the presidential election fewer than eight months away, it is wise to give the American people a more direct voice in the selection and confirmation of the next justice.” Pat Toomey, Pennsylvania

“The American people deserve to have their voices heard on the nomination of the next Supreme Court justice, who could fundamentally alter the direction of the Supreme Court for a generation. Since the next presidential election is already underway, the next president should make this lifetime appointment to the Supreme Court.” John Thune, South Dakota

“At this critical juncture in our nation’s history, Texans and the American people deserve to have a say in the selection of the next lifetime appointment to the Supreme Court.The only way to empower the American people and ensure they have a voice is for the next president to make the nomination to fill this vacancy.” John Cornyn, Texas

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Juror in Breonna Taylor Case Sues for Right To Reveal What Really Happened in Court

sipaphotoseleven074310

A member of the grand jury that did not indict Louisville police for Breonna Taylor’s murder is now suing for the release of court transcripts and related records. The unidentified jury member’s motion, filed Monday, says it was filed so that “the truth may prevail.”

Specifically, the motion asks the court “to release any and all recordings of the grand jury pertaining to what is commonly known as the Breonna Taylor case,” and “to make a binding declaration that Grand Juror, and any additional members of this grand jury, has the right to disclose information and details about the process of the grand jury proceedings … and any potential charges presented or not related to the events surrounding that matter.”

The motion also takes aim at Kentucky Attorney General Daniel Cameron, accusing him of “using the grand jurors as a shield to deflect accountability and responsibility.”

The motion “strongly suggests that Attorney General Cameron’s public comments contradict what was presented to the grand jury,” tweeted The Washington Post‘s Radley Balko. “It essentially accuses Cameron of hiding behind grand jury secrecy requirements while misleading the public about evidence the grand jury actually saw.”

Last week, the jury returned charges against just one of the three officers involved in Taylor’s killing. The charges—three counts of wanton endangerment for Louisville Metro Police Department (LMPD) Detective Brett Hankison—were not for Taylor’s death but for potential danger Hankison could have caused to those in the vicinity.

Hankison “was arraigned Monday in Jefferson Circuit Court, pleading not guilty. He is free on $15,000 bond,” notes the Louisville Courier Journal.

The judge at Hankison’s arraignment also ordered that a “recording of the grand jury proceedings” must be filed with the court by this Wednesday.

Cameron, who had previously refused to release these records, said in a Monday night statement that he will comply with the order for them to be released. “The release of the recording will also address the legal complaint filed by an anonymous grand juror,” he said. “We have no concerns with grand jurors sharing their thoughts on our presentation because we are confident in the case we presented.”


ELECTION 2020

It’s debate night! President Donald Trump and Democratic nominee Joe Biden will take the stage together in Cleveland tonight, starting at 9 p.m., for the first of three scheduled debates between the two major-party presidential candidates. Libertarian Party presidential candidate Jo Jorgensen will be holding her own event tonight, which I’ll be moderating. You can tune into the Jorgensen event on her Facebook or YouTube pages starting at 6:30 p.m.


QUICK HITS

• Captain Underpants. To Kill a Mockingbird. The Hunger Games…The American Library Association just put out a list of the “Top 100 Most Banned and Challenged Books” of the past decade. Check it out here.

• On Saturday, members of the group NXIVM—whose leader was found guilty of sex trafficking and racketeering in 2019—delivered a petition to federal prosecutors demanding answers about alleged evidence tampering, witness intimidation, and other instances of prosecutor misconduct. Among the petition signers were Amanda Knox, who was famously convicted of murder and then exonerated in Italy, and Valentino Dixon, who spent 27 years in prison before having his name cleared and being set free.

• Intermittent fasting has generated buzz in weight loss circles for the past decade, but a new study suggests it might be more bad advice.

• Here’s how to fix asset forfeiture laws.

Megan McArdle on Trump’s tiny tax bill: “We knew he was a tax chiseler and a scoundrel before the Times story broke. We knew it before he became president, because he bragged about it on the campaign trail. If voters didn’t care then, why would they start to now?”

• School districts are starting to punish kids for what’s in the background during their virtual classes:

• Rep. Justin Amash (L–Mich.) on why he left the Republican Party:

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Turkish F-16 Shoots Down Armenian Fighter Jet In Armenian Airspace; Turkey Denies

Turkish F-16 Shoots Down Armenian Fighter Jet In Armenian Airspace; Turkey Denies

Tyler Durden

Tue, 09/29/2020 – 10:25

Armenia’s Ministry of Defense (MoD) has announced a massive escalation and alleged provocation by Turkey, saying Turkish F-16 fighter jets took off from an Azerbaijan airport in support of Azeri forces in Nagorno-Karabakh, which has witness the restart of border warfare since Sunday.

The MoD now says one Turkish F-16 was shot down by an Armenian SU-25 fighter jet, it marks (if confirmed) the first direct clash between the Turkish and Armenian armies.

However, Turkey’s Defense Ministry is denying the report that its jet was shot down

Turkish F-16 file, via Daily Sabah

But the allegation and initial claim out of Yerevan was still enough to send the Turkish lira crashing on the news to a new record low, already from previous historic lows this week.

developing…

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2EJ8GcB Tyler Durden

British MP Urges Mandatory COVID Vaccinations For Anyone Wanting To Travel

British MP Urges Mandatory COVID Vaccinations For Anyone Wanting To Travel

Tyler Durden

Tue, 09/29/2020 – 10:17

Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Summit News,

A Conservative MP has called for mandatory coronavirus vaccination certificates distributed by the Army that will determine whether people will be allowed to travel internationally.

During a debate in the British Parliament last night, MP Tobias Ellwood urged the Prime Minister to have the British Armed Forces oversee that COVID-19 vaccination roll out process.

Noting that a coronavirus vaccine was potentially six months away, Ellwood said, “Mass vaccine roll out is an enormous responsibility and we need to get it right.”

Ellwood said he had written to Boris Johnson urging him to give the power to a Ministry of Defence task force to ship the vaccines across the country and set up regional distribution hubs as well as developing a “national database to track progress and issue the vaccination certificates.”

The MP said the vaccination certificates “will probably have to be internationally recognized in order to allow travel, international travel.”

Ellwood went on to make it clear that people who take the vaccine will see their lives return to normality while those who don’t will still be “subject to social distancing rules.”

The prospect of denying basic rights of mobility and travel to people who refuse to take a vaccine for personal, religious or medical reasons is shaping up to be a human rights minefield.

A poll conducted by King’s College London (KCL) and Ipsos Mori last month found that only 53% of Brits would be “certain” or “likely” to get vaccinated for COVID-19.

One in six said they would definitely not get a vaccine or that it would be very unlikely. When extrapolated out to the population, this equates to 11 million people who, if Ellwood’s advice is taken, will be denied travel and treated like second class citizens.

*  *  *

In the age of mass Silicon Valley censorship It is crucial that we stay in touch. I need you to sign up for my free newsletter here. Also, I urgently need your financial support here.

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US Consumer Confidence Jumps Most Since 2003 As Hope Soars

US Consumer Confidence Jumps Most Since 2003 As Hope Soars

Tyler Durden

Tue, 09/29/2020 – 10:07

After August’s major disappointment, The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence for September was expected to rebound from its lowest level since 2014. And rebound it did with the headline confidence print screaming higher from 84.8 to 101.8 (smashing expectations of 90.0).

Hope dominated the headline beat:

  • Present situation confidence rose to 98.5 vs 85.8 last month

  • Consumer confidence expectations rose to 104.0 vs 86.6 last month

But, despite the bounce, current conditions remain seriously impaired post-COVID…

Source: Bloomberg

This was the biggest headline jump since 2003…

Source: Bloomberg

And biggest spike in ‘hope’ since 2009…

Source: Bloomberg

Jobs Plentiful (vs ‘hard to get’) has jumped back into positive territory for the first time since March, and hopes that the stock market will be higher in 12 months also jumped to its highest since March.

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/348nJFl Tyler Durden

Kuwait’s Ruler Emir Sheikh Sabah Dies At 91

Kuwait’s Ruler Emir Sheikh Sabah Dies At 91

Tyler Durden

Tue, 09/29/2020 – 09:59

Emir Sabah al-Ahmad al-Jaber al-Sabah, the 91-year-old ruler of Kuwait, died Tuesday in a US hospital, according to media reports.

Born in 1929, the Sheikh is widely regarded as the architect of modern Kuwaiti foreign policy, and his death comes amid a major transition in the Middle East, as the UAE takes steps to normalize relations with Israel.

He served as foreign minister for nearly 40 years between 1963 and 2003, when he became prime minister of Kuwait, before becoming Emir in 2006 following the death of Sheikh Jaber al-Sabah. The longtime ruler’s death is not unexpected: the country announced he had suffered an unspecfied medical “set back” in August 2019. In July, he sought treatment in a US hospital after undergoing surgery.

Many Kuwaitis were informed of his death when local television cut to Quaranic verses on Tuesday, a move that typically signifies the death of a senior member of Kuwait’s ruling family.

In the past, 83-year-old Crown Prince Nawaf al-Ahmad al-Sabah, an elder statesman and the deceased emir’s half-brother, has been  appointed acting ruler when the Sheikh was indisposed, as per the country’s constitutional law. Sheikh Nawaf has held high office for decades, including top positions. As ruler, his brother pushed a policy of diplomacy to solve regional problems, while also leading the 2017 boycott of Qatar by members of the GCC.

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Fed Study Shows The ECB Made A Huge Mistake With Negative Rates

Fed Study Shows The ECB Made A Huge Mistake With Negative Rates

Tyler Durden

Tue, 09/29/2020 – 09:51

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk,

ECB Punishes Banks With Negative Interest Rates.

Please consider Commercial Banks under Persistent Negative Rates by the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

Do extended periods of negative policy interest rates continue to encourage commercial bank lending? A large panel of European and Japanese banks provides evidence on the impact of negative rates over different lengths of time.

Analysis suggests that both bank profitability and bank lending activity erode more the longer such negative policy rates continue, primarily due to banks’ reluctance to pass negative rates along to retail depositors. This appears to negate one of the main arguments for moving policy rates below the zero bound.

Our results suggest that banks can only mitigate losses on interest income through charging fees on deposits and enjoying capital gains on securities holdings for short periods of negative interest rates. As durations of negative policy rates lengthen, the gains from these adjustments become increasingly inadequate to offset the growing losses on interest income due to banks’ limited abilities to pass along negative rates to depositors. The result is that, as negative rates persist, they drag on bank profitability even more.

The data clearly show that losses on interest income accelerate over time and begin to outweigh the gains from noninterest income. As a result, the impact on overall profitability falls below zero. Our regression analysis for the impact on overall bank profitability becomes negative on average with statistical significance after five years under negative interest rates.

No Surprise

I talked about this six years ago when the ECB first went to negative rates.

Statements I made then still apply,

  • The Fed paid interest on excess reserves slowly recapitalizing banks over time.

  • The ECB charged interest on excess reserves draining already stressed banks of capital.

I question the study’s statement “the impact on overall bank profitability becomes negative on average with statistical significance after five years under negative interest rates.”

Indeed, their own chart shows negative impacts after a year. 

Impact of Negative Policy

Lose-Lose Setup

In short bank lending suffers after one year and profitability suffers at increasing rates over time.

It is for this reason I have often stated the Fed would not be stupid enough to opt for negative rates.  

The effective lower bound is at least somewhat above zero. 

Effective Lower Bound

Please see my September 25, 2019 post In Search of the Effective Lower Bound

The Fed is no longer talking about zero-bound but effective lower bound. What’s the difference? Where is it?

Effective Lower Bound is the point beyond which further monetary policy in the same direction is counterproductive.

I propose the Bank of Japan and the ECB are already below ELB. I further propose the ELB can never be negative but it can be well above zero.

Negative interest rate policy can never work as it violates basic economic principles on time preference and the time value of money.

Moreover, a dive below the ELB supports the position I presented on September 23, 2019: Negative Interest Rates Are Social Political Poison

Deeper Down the Rabbit Hole

Yesterday, I noted Draghi Open to MMT and a People’s QE

Every attempt to fix the perceived problem of “too low inflation” goes deeper and deeper down the rabbit hole.

It’s economic madness, yet, here we are.

It took a multi-year study for the San Francisco Fed to come to the right conclusion.

That’s a step in the right direction. Many of these studies come to the wrong conclusion.

The solution is to let the free market set interest rates rather than a tail-chasing consortium of economic wizards who have never spotted a bubble or a recession in real time.

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/3kWX98R Tyler Durden

Kentucky AG Complies With Order To Release Grand Jury Records From Breonna Taylor Case

Kentucky AG Complies With Order To Release Grand Jury Records From Breonna Taylor Case

Tyler Durden

Tue, 09/29/2020 – 09:32

The AP just reported that, in a landmark decision that will inevitably heap more scrutiny on the grand jury’s decision in the Breonna Taylor case, Kentucky AG Daniel Cameron has agreed to comply with a judge’s order to release grand jury proceedings from the case after a juror filed a motion on Monday demanding the materials be released.

According to media reports, the unnamed juror filed the motion on Monday seeking release of the records because they felt Cameron had misled the public during his press briefing announcing the grand jury’s decision to charge one of the officers indicted in Taylor’s death with wanton reckless for firing gunshots into a neighboring apartment.

As the tweet above notes, the motion to release the proceedings was filed by a member of the Grand Jury in a motion that suggested the AG’s public comments about the case didn’t align with the evidence presented to the Grand Jury. It essentially accuses AG Daniel Cameron of manipulating the outcome of the decision by, among other things, limiting the discussion of charges.

During the press conference where Cameron announced the charges, the juror alleges that the AG misrepresented what evidence was shown to the grand jury. It might be an attempt to deflect blame amid a vicious public backlash to the decision. On the other hand, many on the left will likely take it as proof that Cameron tampered in the decision in an attempt to bolster his own political ambitions.

It’s worth noting that many legal experts doubted the officers would be charged with murder in Taylor’s death due to the fact that her boyfriend fired first. Kentucky has strict ‘stand your ground’ laws.

Here’s the complete motion…

Scanned.motion.gj.Release (1) by Zerohedge on Scribd

…We now wait for the grand jury materials to be released by the AG’s office, or leaked to the NYT, whichever happens first.

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/3l1suqT Tyler Durden

Juror in Breonna Taylor Case Sues for Right To Reveal What Really Happened in Court

sipaphotoseleven074310

A member of the grand jury that did not indict Louisville police for Breonna Taylor’s murder is now suing for the release of court transcripts and related records. The unidentified jury member’s motion, filed Monday, says it was filed so that “the truth may prevail.”

Specifically, the motion asks the court “to release any and all recordings of the grand jury pertaining to what is commonly known as the Breonna Taylor case,” and “to make a binding declaration that Grand Juror, and any additional members of this grand jury, has the right to disclose information and details about the process of the grand jury proceedings … and any potential charges presented or not related to the events surrounding that matter.”

The motion also takes aim at Kentucky Attorney General Daniel Cameron, accusing him of “using the grand jurors as a shield to deflect accountability and responsibility.”

The motion “strongly suggests that Attorney General Cameron’s public comments contradict what was presented to the grand jury,” tweeted The Washington Post‘s Radley Balko. “It essentially accuses Cameron of hiding behind grand jury secrecy requirements while misleading the public about evidence the grand jury actually saw.”

Last week, the jury returned charges against just one of the three officers involved in Taylor’s killing. The charges—three counts of wanton endangerment for Louisville Metro Police Department (LMPD) Detective Brett Hankison—were not for Taylor’s death but for potential danger Hankison could have caused to those in the vicinity.

Hankison “was arraigned Monday in Jefferson Circuit Court, pleading not guilty. He is free on $15,000 bond,” notes the Louisville Courier Journal.

The judge at Hankison’s arraignment also ordered that a “recording of the grand jury proceedings” must be filed with the court by this Wednesday.

Cameron, who had previously refused to release these records, said in a Monday night statement that he will comply with the order for them to be released. “The release of the recording will also address the legal complaint filed by an anonymous grand juror,” he said. “We have no concerns with grand jurors sharing their thoughts on our presentation because we are confident in the case we presented.”


ELECTION 2020

It’s debate night! President Donald Trump and Democratic nominee Joe Biden will take the stage together in Cleveland tonight, starting at 9 p.m., for the first of three scheduled debates between the two major-party presidential candidates. Libertarian Party presidential candidate Jo Jorgensen will be holding her own event tonight, which I’ll be moderating. You can tune into the Jorgensen event on her Facebook or YouTube pages starting at 6:30 p.m.


QUICK HITS

• Captain Underpants. To Kill a Mockingbird. The Hunger Games…The American Library Association just put out a list of the “Top 100 Most Banned and Challenged Books” of the past decade. Check it out here.

• On Saturday, members of the group NXIVM—whose leader was found guilty of sex trafficking and racketeering in 2019—delivered a petition to federal prosecutors demanding answers about alleged evidence tampering, witness intimidation, and other instances of prosecutor misconduct. Among the petition signers were Amanda Knox, who was famously convicted of murder and then exonerated in Italy, and Valentino Dixon, who spent 27 years in prison before having his name cleared and being set free.

• Intermittent fasting has generated buzz in weight loss circles for the past decade, but a new study suggests it might be more bad advice.

• Here’s how to fix asset forfeiture laws.

Megan McArdle on Trump’s tiny tax bill: “We knew he was a tax chiseler and a scoundrel before the Times story broke. We knew it before he became president, because he bragged about it on the campaign trail. If voters didn’t care then, why would they start to now?”

• School districts are starting to punish kids for what’s in the background during their virtual classes:

• Rep. Justin Amash (L–Mich.) on why he left the Republican Party:

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“Get Your Popcorn”: Tonight’s Debate Has “All The Makings Of A Classic To Rival The Rumble In The Jungle”

“Get Your Popcorn”: Tonight’s Debate Has “All The Makings Of A Classic To Rival The Rumble In The Jungle”

Tyler Durden

Tue, 09/29/2020 – 09:10

By Michael Every of Rabobank

Rumble in the Jungle; Thrilla near Manilla

First and foremost today, markets will be focusing on the first (and, some Twitter wisdom would have it, potentially the last) presidential election debate between Donald Trump and Joe Biden.

This has all the makings of a classic to rival The Rumble in the Jungle between Foreman and Ali. Except in this case, almost everyone will be watching what they believe might be The Bungle in the (media) Jungle. Indeed, supporters of *both* candidates will be transformed into nervous parents at an expensive Ivy League prep school on the evening of their very young child’s first-ever school play: rictus smiles and silent prayers as the curtain rises that their special one makes them proud rather than having a tantrum, forgetting their lines, falling asleep, or generally humiliating themselves. After all, neither man has a reputation for eloquence, remaining calm at all times, clearly getting their point across to neutrals, or remaining gaffe free.

The expectations for Biden have been set extremely low – but he has been doing debates for 50 years, so there is bound to be some deep muscle memory there along with the “I am the guy who…” and “C’mon man!” and “Malarkey” shtick. Trump has only had a few rounds of real debate in his life: against Clinton in 2016 and against his Republican rivals prior to that, and the shock jock routine is hardly new at this point.

We already know what the debate topics will be (and let’s assume neither candidate knows what the actual questions are, unlike in 2016). Yet that does not mean we won’t be hearing about whatever each candidate feels will floor his opponent best, for example: Ukraine; Russia; China; problematic children; things said to or about soldiers; things said or done about the coronavirus; the Supreme Court; tax – and who wrote the tax code; a failure to provide decent healthcare options to millions of Americans; election fraud. Who said the country was divided, eh? Anyway world, sit yourself down, get your popcorn in, and let the spectacle unfold.

Meanwhile, most of the press has decided on the potential showdown(s) they don’t want to talk about much.

First is the risk of an escalation in fighting between Armenia and Azerbaijan. The former is considering triggering its defence treaty with Russia, where President Putin has called for an immediate ceasefire; the latter is supported by Turkey’s President Erdogan,…who has called for the liberation of all disputed territory held by Armenians (meaning Nagorno-Karabakh). TRY remains close to record lows at time of writing, and just for good measure Turkey is today undertaking naval drills close to Greek waters again to “encourage cooperation” in proposed talks on gas exploration. RUB is also under pressure on fears of further sanctions due to Belarus, the poisoning of Navalny, and the fact that if the word ‘Russia’ comes up tonight in US presidential debate buzzword bingo, everyone in the Kremlin drinks. They know that Iran, according to Bloomberg, is on the cusp of another set of biting US sanctions to effectively seal it off from the rest of the world financially.

Second is what one would think might be the front-page headline. As China conducts naval drills in four seas simultaneously –because how else does one focus on a post-virus consumer-led, green-friendly economic recovery?– the editor of The Global Times (who I think would have made a great outside choice as a host for a US presidential debate) has tweeted the following:

“Based on information I learned, Trump govt could take the risk to attack China’s islands in the South China Sea with MQ-9 Reaper drones to aid his reelection campaign. If it happens, the PLA will definitely fight back fiercely and let those who start the war pay a heavy price.”

I can perhaps understand why this is not getting much coverage. The Global Times is excitable. It has said similar things about both Taiwan and India very recently, for example, and even about Australia earlier this year too. Yet without any wish to go all guns and gold and duct tape, this is either a smoking gun (or MQ-9) pointing at the risk of WW3 starting from the US side, and perhaps imminently if Trump bungles in the media jungle tonight; or it is China talking up such risks when no US threat is on the table, which unnecessarily escalates geopolitical risk too.

At the very least, it has to be dismissed as ‘just’ North Korea style media, which does not sit well with all the other financial market China stories about designer this and disruption that, and dynamic growth the other. Then again, the US is hardly short of wing-nut media, I suppose, who are all about to have a field day.

Anyway, less than 20 hours now as I type until the big show begins. The Trump-Biden one, I mean.

But you won’t be able to watch it in a group in public in the Netherlands now that a UK-style 10pm restaurant and bar closure has just been introduced for three weeks, along with a stop to all spectators at sports matches, as Europe shows that it is still in synch with the UK on more than just a potential Brexit trade deal.

Perhaps next the Dutch will be sealing newly-arrived students into their halls of residence, telling them they may not be able to go home for Christmas, and throwing in the odd packet of crisps and candy bar through the window while charging them GBP9,000 a year fees for the experience, and rent on top.

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/30k33Jg Tyler Durden