The State-By-State Toll Of Coronavirus On The Job Market

The State-By-State Toll Of Coronavirus On The Job Market

Courtesy of Joseph Brusuelas of the Real Economy Blog and Wallet Hub

The widespread layoffs of American workers worsened in the third week of the coronavirus shutdown, with all states (with the exception of the Virgin Islands) now having reported a significant increase in initial jobless claims at some point during the three-week period.

This strongly suggests that Congress will have to make state and municipal finance a policy priority to prevent a spillover of the recent carnage in the labor market into the public sector.

Nationally, there were 6.6 million initial jobless claims for the week ending March 28 on a seasonally adjusted basis. That amounts to a nearly 300-standard-deviation shock to the labor force that is likely to have a long-run impact on consumer spending and the economy as a whole.

To identify which states have experienced the largest unemployment increases, WalletHub compared the 50 states and the District of Columbia across two key metrics. These metrics compare initial unemployment claim increases for the week of March 23, 2020 to both the same week in 2019 and the first week of 2020. Below, you can see highlights from the report, along with a WalletHub Q&A.

Nevada, Minnesota, New Hampshire and Rhode Island reported fewer claims in the latest week of reporting (March 28) than in the first week of widespread layoffs, but that’s not to say things are getting better.

For example, Nevada reported 71,000 initial claims in the week ending March 28, versus 92,000 in the week ending March 21. By comparison, the average number of claims in Nevada was 2,900 per week in the pre-crisis period.

And Minnesota reported 110,000 initial claims in the week ending March 28, versus 116,000 in the week ending March 21. By comparison, the average number of claims in Minnesota was 4,300 per week in the pre-crisis period.

Also discouraging is that 6,000 of those claims involved plant closings during the month of March, as reported by Minnesota Department of Employment and Economic Development, which suggests that the impact of the virus is moving beyond the service sector.

The map below shows three numbers below the state name:

  1. The cumulative number of initial unemployment claims since March 7, the before the effect of shutdowns began in earnest.
  2. The latest increase (decrease) in the number of claims.
  3. The Z-score of the latest increase (decrease) in claims, which is the number of standard deviations above (below) the pre-coronavirus average.

The first number indicates the depth of the impact of the virus on the labor force.

The second number indicates the direction of the claims (i.e., a first derivative of sorts): Positive numbers indicate an increase in claims and labor market distress; positive numbers approaching zero indicate the deceleration in new filings; zero would suggest a plateauing of claims; while negative numbers are an indication that businesses and employees are returning to normal.

The third number shows the unprecedented degree of the shock, with Z-scores outside the range of plus-or-minus two standard deviations considered to be outside of normal occurrences.


Tyler Durden

Thu, 04/02/2020 – 23:40

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/3aQgfcp Tyler Durden

WHO Targeted In Major COVID-19 Data-Hacking Campaign Believed Tied To Iran

WHO Targeted In Major COVID-19 Data-Hacking Campaign Believed Tied To Iran

A new report by Reuters alleges a major attempted hack of the World Health Organization (WHO) during the worldwide coronavirus pandemic linked to Iranian state entities.

WHO officials described “a sustained digital bombardment” by hackers described as seeking internal information on the deadly coronavirus, further said to be “more than doubled” compared to prior hacking attempts of the United Nations health agency.

Iran has vehemently denied that it or any of its intelligence arms were behind the computer network attacks, with the Islamic Republic’s information technology ministry dismissing the reports as “sheer lies to put more pressure on Iran.” Instead, the ministry said, “Iran has been a victim of hacking.”

Image source: Cybercrime Magazine

Iran’s leaders have of late lashed out at the US and Western humanitarian organizations for sanctions, which have exacerbated the intensity of the deadly outbreak inside Iran.

Reuters cited an unnamed source only described as working for a large technology company which monitors global cyber-threats as alleging, “We’ve seen some targeting by what looks like Iranian government-backed attackers targeting international health organizations generally via phishing.” 

Specifically the report describes the hackers’ methods as follows:

The latest effort has been ongoing since March 2 and attempted to steal passwords from WHO staff by sending malicious messages designed to mimic Google web services to their personal email accounts, a common hacking technique known as “phishing,” according to four people briefed on the attacks. Reuters confirmed their findings by reviewing a string of malicious websites and other forensic data.

Western intelligence sources interviewed further pointed to an Iranian pattern of intensifying cyber-attacks against European and American institutions and targets during times of major international crisis.

Over the past year there’ve been multiple instances of hackers infiltrating US federal websites and displaying pro-Iranian messages on them, especially becoming more intense following the Jan.3 assassination of the IRGC’s Gen. Soleimani.

Reuters referenced the pattern as follows: “Other details in this phishing attempt point to links with Tehran. For example, Reuters found that the same malicious websites used in the WHO break-in attempts were deployed around the same time to target American academics with ties to Iran,” according to the report.

“The related activity – which saw the hackers impersonate a well-known researcher – parallels cases Reuters previously documented where alleged Iranian hackers masqueraded as media figures from organizations such as CNN or The New York Times to trick their targets,” it said.

Since last summer when tensions began soaring between Tehran and Washington, eventually nearly leading to war and tit-for-tat military strikes in January of this year, cyber operations between the US and Iran have reportedly ramped up dramatically, with both sides considering the covert digital intrusions of each others’ classified data an ‘act of war’. 

This week the White House has put US forces in the Middle East on a state of alert, with Trump on Wednesday alleging that Iranian proxies in Iraq are preparing a major attack on American bases there. 


Tyler Durden

Thu, 04/02/2020 – 23:20

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/3aFxiO8 Tyler Durden

Escobar: Ground-Control To Planet Lockdown – “The Existing World-System Has To Go”

Escobar: Ground-Control To Planet Lockdown – “The Existing World-System Has To Go”

Authored by Pepe Escobar via The Strategic Culture Foundation,

As much as Covid-19 is a circuit breaker, a time bomb and an actual weapon of mass destruction (WMD), a fierce debate is raging worldwide on the wisdom of mass quarantine applied to entire cities, states and nations.

Those against it argue Planet Lockdown not only is not stopping the spread of Covid-19 but also has landed the global economy into a cryogenic state – with unforeseen, dire consequences. Thus quarantine should apply essentially to the population with the greatest risk of death: the elderly.

With Planet Lockdown transfixed by heart-breaking reports from the Covid-19 frontline, there’s no question this is an incendiary assertion.

In parallel, a total corporate media takeover is implying that if the numbers do not substantially go down, Planet Lockdown – an euphemism for house arrest – remains, indefinitely.

Michael Levitt, 2013 Nobel Prize in chemistry and Stanford biophysicist, was spot on when he calculated that China would get through the worst of Covid-19 way before throngs of health experts believed, and that “What we need is to control the panic”.

Let’s cross this over with some facts and dissident opinion, in the interest of fostering an informed debate.

The report Covid-19 – Navigating the Uncharted was co-authored by Dr. Anthony Fauci – the White House face of the fight –, H. Clifford Lane, and CDC director Robert R. Redfield. So it comes from the heart of the U.S. healthcare establishment.

The report explicitly states, “the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968) rather than a disease similar to SARS or MERS, which have had case fatality rates of 9 to 10% and 36%, respectively.”

On March 19, four days before Downing Street ordered the British lockdown, Covid-19 was downgraded from the status of “High Consequence Infectious Disease.”

John Lee, recently retired professor of pathology and former NHS consultant pathologist, has recently argued that, “the world’s 18,944 coronavirus deaths represent 0.14 per cent of the total. These figures might shoot up but they are, right now, lower than other infectious diseases that we live with (such as flu).”

He recommends, “a degree of social distancing should be maintained for a while, especially for the elderly and the immune-suppressed. But when drastic measures are introduced, they should be based on clear evidence. In the case of Covid-19, the evidence is not clear.”

That’s essentially the same point developed by a Russian military intel analyst.

No less than 22 scientists – see here and here – have expanded on their doubts about the Western strategy.

Dr. Sucharit Bhakdi, Professor Emeritus of Medical Microbiology at the Johannes Gutenberg University in Mainz, has provoked immense controversy with his open letter to Chancellor Merkel, stressing the “truly unforeseeable consequences of the drastic containment measures which are currently being applied in large parts of Europe.”

Even New York governor Andrew Cuomo admitted on the record about the error of quarantining elderly people with illnesses alongside the fit young population.

The absolutely key issue is how the West was caught completely unprepared for the spread of Covid-19 – even after being provided a head start of two months by China, and having the time to study different successful strategies applied across Asia.

There are no secrets for the success of the South Korean model.

South Korea was producing test kits already in early January, and by March was testing 100,000 people a day, after establishing strict control of the whole population – to Western cries of “no protection of private life”. That was before the West embarked on Planet Lockdown mode.

South Korea was all about testing early, often and safely – in tandem with quick, thorough contact tracing, isolation and surveillance.

Covid-19 carriers are monitored with the help of video-surveillance cameras, credit card purchases, smartphone records. Add to it SMS sent to everyone when a new case is detected near them or their place of work. Those in self-isolation need an app to be constantly monitored; non-compliance means a fine to the equivalent of $2,800.

Controlled demolition in effect

In early March, the Chinese Journal of Infectious Diseases, hosted by the Shanghai Medical Association, pre-published an Expert Consensus on Comprehensive Treatment of Coronavirus in Shanghai. Treatment recommendations included, “large doses of vitamin C…injected intravenously at a dose of 100 to 200 mg / kg per day. The duration of continuous use is to significantly improve the oxygenation index.”

That’s the reason why 50 tons of Vitamin C was shipped to Hubei province in early February. It’s a stark example of a simple “mitigation” solution capable of minimizing economic catastrophe.

In contrast, it’s as if the brutally fast Chinese “people’s war” counterpunch against Covid-19 had caught Washington totally unprepared. Steady intel rumbles on the Chinese net point to Beijing having already studied all plausible leads towards the origin of the Sars-Cov-2 virus – vital information that will be certainly weaponized, Sun Tzu style, at the right time.

As it stands, the sustainability of the complex Eurasian integration project has not been substantially compromised. As the EU has provided the whole planet with a graphic demonstration of its cluelessness and helplessness, everyday the Russia-China strategic partnership gets stronger – increasingly investing in soft power and advancing a pan-Eurasia dialogue which includes, crucially, medical help.

Facing this process, the EU’s top diplomat, Joseph Borrell, sounds indeed so helpless:

There is a global battle of narratives going on in which timing is a crucial factor. […] China has brought down local new infections to single figures – and it is now sending equipment and doctors to Europe, as others do as well. China is aggressively pushing the message that, unlike the U.S., it is a responsible and reliable partner. In the battle of narratives we have also seen attempts to discredit the EU (…) We must be aware there is a geo-political component including a struggle for influence through spinning and the ‘politics of generosity’. Armed with facts, we need to defend Europe against its detractors.”

That takes us to really explosive territory. A critique of the Planet Lockdown strategy inevitably raises serious questions pointing to a controlled demolition of the global economy. What is already in stark effect are myriad declinations of martial law, severe social media policing in Ministry of Truth mode, and the return of strict border controls.

These are unequivocal markings of a massive social re-engineering project, complete with inbuilt full monitoring, population control and social distancing promoted as the new normal.

That would be taking to the limit Secretary of State Mike “we lie, we cheat, we steal” Pompeo’s assertion, on the record, that Covid-19 is a live military exercise: “This matter is going forward — we are in a live exercise here to get this right.”

All hail BlackRock

So as we face a New Great Depression, steps leading to a Brave New World are already discernable. It goes way beyond a mere Bretton Woods 2.0, in the manner that Pam and Russ Martens superbly deconstruct the recent $2 trillion, Capitol Hill-approved stimulus to the U.S. economy.

Essentially, the Fed will “leverage the bill’s $454 million bailout slush fund into $4.5 trillion”. And no questions are allowed on who gets the money, because the bill simply cancels the Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) for the Fed.

The privileged private contractor for the slush fund is none other than BlackRock. Here’s the extremely short version of the whole, astonishing scheme, masterfully detailed here.

Wall Street has turned the Fed into a hedge fund. The Fed is going to own at least two thirds of all U.S. Treasury bills wallowing in the market before the end of the year.

The U.S. Treasury will be buying every security and loan in sight while the Fed will be the banker – financing the whole scheme.

So essentially this is a Fed/ Treasury merger. A behemoth dispensing loads of helicopter money – with BlackRock as the undisputable winner.

BlackRock is widely known as the biggest money manager on the planet. Their tentacles are everywhere. They own 5% of Apple, 5% of Exxon Mobil, 6% of Google, second largest shareholder of AT&T (Turner, HBO, CNN, Warner Brothers) – these are just a few examples.

They will buy all these securities and manage those dodgy special Purpose Vehicles (SPVs) on behalf of the Treasury.

BlackRock not only is the top investor in Goldman Sachs. Better yet: Blackrock is bigger than Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan and Deutsche Bank combined. BlackRock is a serious Trump donor. Now, for all practical purposes, it will be the operating system – the Chrome, Firefox, Safari – of Fed/Treasury.

This represents the definitive Wall Street-ization of the Fed – with no evidence whatsoever it will lead to any improvement in the lives of the average American.

Western corporate media, en masse, have virtually ignored the myriad, devastating economic consequences of Planet Lockdown. Wall to wall coverage barely mentions the astonishing economic human wreckage already in effect – especially for the masses barely surviving, so far, in the informal economy.

For all practical purposes, the Global War on Terror (GWOT) has been replaced by the Global War on Virus (GWOV). But what is not being seriously analyzed is the Perfect Toxic Storm: a totally shattered economy; The Mother of All Financial Crashes – barely masked by the trillions in helicopter money from the Fed and the ECB; the tens of millions of unemployed engendered by the New Great Depression; the millions of small businesses that will simply disappear; a widespread, global mental health crisis. Not to mention the masses of elderly, especially in the U.S., that will be issued an unspoken “drop dead” notice.

Beyond any rhetoric about “decoupling”, the global economy is already, de facto, split in two. On one side, we have Eurasia, Africa and swathes of Latin America – what China will be painstakingly connecting and reconnecting via the New Silk Roads. On the other side, we have North America and selected Western vassals. A puzzled Europe lies in the middle.

A cryogenically induced global economy certainly facilitates a reboot. Trumpism is the New Exceptionalism – so that means an isolationist MAGA on steroids. In contrast, China will painstakingly reboot its market base along the New Silk Roads – Africa and Latin America included – to replace the 20% of trade/exports to be lost with the U.S.

The meager $1,200 checks promised to Americans are a de facto precursor of the much touted Universal Basic Income (UBI). They may become permanent as tens of millions of people will be permanently unemployed. That will facilitate the transition towards a totally automated, 24/7 economy run by AI – thus the importance of 5G.

And that’s where ID2020 comes in.

AI and ID2020

The European Commission is involved in a crucial but virtually unknown project, CREMA (Cloud Based Rapid Elastic Manufacturing) which aims to facilitate the widest possible implementation of AI in conjunction to the advent of a cashless One-World system.

The end of cash necessarily implies a One-World government capable of dispensing – and controlling – UBI; a de facto full accomplishment of Foucault’s studies on biopolitics. Anyone is liable to be erased from the system if an algorithm equals this individual with dissent.

It gets even sexier when absolute social control is promoted as an innocent vaccine.

ID2020 is self-described as a benign alliance of “public-private partners”. Essentially, it is an electronic ID platform based on generalized vaccination. And its starts at birth; newborns will be provided with a “portable and persistent biometrically-linked digital identity.”

GAVI, the Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunization, pledges to “protect people’s health “ and provide “immunization for all”. Top partners and sponsors, apart from the WHO, include, predictably, Big Pharma.

At the ID2020 Alliance summit last September in New York, it was decided that the “Rising to the Good ID Challenge” program would be launched in 2020. That was confirmed by the World Economic Forum (WEF) this past January in Davos. The digital identity will be tested with the government of Bangladesh.

That poses a serious question: was ID2020 timed to coincide with what a crucial sponsor, the WHO, qualified as a pandemic? Or was a pandemic absolutely crucial to justify the launch of ID2020?

As game-changing trial runs go, nothing of course beats Event 201, which took place less than a month after ID2020.

The Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security in partnership with, once again, the WEF, as well as the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, described Event 201 as “a high-level pandemic exercise”. The exercise “illustrated areas where public/private partnerships will be necessary during the response to a severe pandemic in order to diminish large-scale economic and societal consequences.”

With Covid-19 in effect as a pandemic, the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health was forced to issue a statement basically saying they just “modeled a fictional coronavirus pandemic, but we explicitly stated that it was not a prediction”.

There’s no question “a severe pandemic, which becomes ‘Event 201’ would require reliable cooperation among several industries, national governments, and key international institutions”, as spun by the sponsors. Covid-19 is eliciting exactly this kind of “cooperation”. Whether it’s “reliable” is open to endless debate.

The fact is that, all over Planet Lockdown, a groundswell of public opinion is leaning towards defining the current state of affairs as a global psyop: a deliberate global meltdown – the New Great Depression – imposed on unsuspecting citizens by design.

The powers that be, taking their cue from the tried and tested, decades-old CIA playbook, of course are breathlessly calling it a “conspiracy theory”. Yet what vast swathes of global public opinion observe is a – dangerous – virus being used as cover for the advent of a new, digital financial system, complete with a forced vaccine cum nanochip creating a full, individual, digital identity.

The most plausible scenario for our immediate future reads like clusters of smart cities linked by AI, with people monitored full time and duly micro-chipped doing what they need with a unified digital currency, in an atmosphere of Bentham’s and Foucault’s Panopticum on overdrive.

So if this is really our future, the existing world-system has to go. This is a test, this is only a test.


Tyler Durden

Thu, 04/02/2020 – 23:00

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/3bYoOSD Tyler Durden

New York’s Unemployment Fund Will Be Insolvent In 2 Months

New York’s Unemployment Fund Will Be Insolvent In 2 Months

With 92,381 total cases, surging by 8,669 in one day, and resulting in 2,373 deaths, New York has emerged the epicenter of the coronavirus pandemic.

Just as concerning, is that it is also among the states least prepared to deal with the record surge of unemployment claims by workers in restaurants, retail shops and hotels closed to slow the outbreak.

New York’s unemployment insurance trust had about $2.7 billion at the end of 2019, less than half the minimum needed to remain solvent during a recession, according to the U.S. Department of Labor. Alas, it is now facing a depression and with claims skyrocketing, the state has enough money to cover the checks for only 10 weeks, according to an estimate by the Tax Foundation, a Washington-based think tank.

“New York’s unemployment compensation trust fund is basically insolvent,” wrote Jared Walczak, director of state tax policy at the Tax Foundation as quoted by Bloomberg. “Funds will be exhausted even more quickly should unemployment compensation claims continue to rise.”

Almost 10 million American applied for unemployment benefits in the last two weeks, highlighting the devastating economic impact of the coronavirus as shutdowns widened across the country. About 450,000 of them were New Yorkers, according to the state’s Department of Labor. Only California, Pennsylvania and Ohio saw more claims.

During the Great Recession, the majority of states exhausted their unemployment insurance reserves and either borrowed from the U.S. Treasury or issued bonds to rebuild their trusts, according to Kroll Bond Rating Agency.

States that have rebuilt reserves such as Georgia and North Carolina will have less pressure to raise unemployment taxes, Kroll wrote in a report Wednesday. New York, unfortunately, is not among them.

New York’s trust fund had a solvency level of 0.36 as of Dec. 31, where a level of 1.0 means the state could pay out claims for a year at the average level of the worst three years of the past twenty, according to the U.S. Labor Department. California, Texas, New York, Illinois, Ohio and Pennsylvania are among the 22 states and jurisdictions that do not meet the recommended standard of solvency. Only California’s unemployment trust fund is in worse shape than New York’s, according to the department: almost as if the most liberal states also happen to be most insolvent.

It gets worse: there are now nearly twice as many people claiming or already receiving unemployment benefits as there were over the comparison period, meaning that with current claims, states would run out twice as fast, the Tax Foundation’s Walczak wrote.

The economic stimulus signed by President Donald Trump provides additional federally-funded benefits to unemployed workers, and expands eligibility to previously uncovered workers, but states are still on the hook for regular benefits.

“The state will have to borrow from the federal government, and will ultimately have to pay back those loans with interest, while New York employers will eventually face higher federal unemployment insurance taxes to compensate the federal government for extending loans to the state,” Walczak wrote, who clearly is unaware that under helicopter money nobody will repay anything, ever again, and instead the perpetual Minsky moment will be stretch forever, defying every law of finance, and physics, just because the Fed will monetize it all, and everyone will live happily ever after.


Tyler Durden

Thu, 04/02/2020 – 22:40

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2X6Jd3I Tyler Durden

What Really Caused Oil To Rally By 25%?

What Really Caused Oil To Rally By 25%?

Submitted by Nick Cunningham of

Just had a great conversation with Russia's @novakav1. While we normally compete, we agreed that #COVID19 requires unprecedented level of int'l cooperation. Discussed 10mbpd out of global supply. Look forward to speaking with Saudi Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman soon.

— Ryan Sitton (@RyanSitton) April 2, 2020

“>OilPrice

Oil prices spiked 25 percent on Thursday after President Trump tweeted that Saudi Arabia and Russia would cut production by 10 to 15 million barrels per day (mb/d), but there are a variety of reasons why a cut of this size faces steep odds. Incidentally it was the biggest one day percentage surge in the price of oil in history.

This should be prefaced with the fact that nobody knows what will happen and that the onset of a global pandemic means that all of the old rules are thrown out the window. Anything can happen in the context of the greatest public health and economic crisis in a century. 

But Trump’s tweets raise a ton of questions. Right off the bat, a 10-15 mb/d cut is incredibly massive. How could that be divided up? Russia and Saudi Arabia are both at around 11 mb/d; would they both cut their output in half? That’s an absurd notion. 

Indeed, immediately, Russia shot down the idea that there was some agreement. That was followed by a clarification from Saudi Arabia, which called for an emergency OPEC+ meeting that could lead to cuts with “another group of countries” in an attempt to arrive at a “fair solution.” 

That statement means that Saudi Arabia has not signed onto anything, and would only cut if a lot of other countries did the same. The Saudi statement hints that it wants more than just the OPEC+ coalition, which presumably would include the U.S., Canada, Brazil and/or some other non-OPEC producers. 

Then, news surfaced that Saudi Arabia was willing to cut output below 9 mb/d if others joined them. That means that Saudi will chip in around 2 mb/d of cuts, which is incredibly modest compared to what Trump’s tweet suggests. 

It would also bring Saudi output roughly back to where it was a month ago, prior to the breakdown of the OPEC+ negotiations. 

Meanwhile, an even larger question is what the U.S. would need to give in order to achieve anything close to what Trump claimed. With U.S. shale on the ropes and destined for a substantial decline, the American government would presumably need to offer quite a bit to get Saudi and Russia on board with deep cuts.  

Will the U.S. implement its own production cuts? It’s not clear how the U.S. could do this with hundreds of privately-owned oil companies, whether the government even has that authority, whether it can practically implement such a plan, and whether the oil industry itself wants such an outcome. 

One avenue could be a federal ban on exports, an idea that would be highly controversial and would require Congressional action, which essentially rules it out. A group of Republican Senators from oil states have also proposed a tariff on imported oil, but the American Petroleum Institute has pushed back on that. 

Texas Railroad Commissioner Ryan Sitton upped the ante midday on Thursday, stating that he spoke with Russian energy minister Alexander Novak about “10mbpd out of global supply,” and that he would soon speak with the Saudi energy minister. Texas regulators had already started exploring state-led production cuts, something that has divided the U.S. oil industry.

Just had a great conversation with Russia’s @novakav1. While we normally compete, we agreed that #COVID19 requires unprecedented level of int’l cooperation. Discussed 10mbpd out of global supply. Look forward to speaking with Saudi Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman soon.

Not long after Trump’s tweet, Reuters reported that the Trump administration does not actually plan on asking domestic drillers to cut production. Trump is set to meet with a group of oil CEOs on Friday, but he apparently won’t ask them to cut output, Reuters says. 

Bloomberg reported that there was widespread confusion even within the U.S. government about what Trump’s tweet meant. 

If the U.S. is not going to cut, what, then, is Trump talking about? One thing to consider is that Saudi Arabia can earn some goodwill in Washington by agreeing to call for an emergency OPEC+ meeting. The Saudis could be nodding along with Trump, commiserating about low oil prices, while also suggesting that they could take strong action…if others go along. Riyadh does not have to agree to anything immediately, but by putting the ball in the court of the U.S. and Russia, they may entice production cuts from elsewhere. 

Oil prices jumped sharply on Trump’s tweet, but his assertion raises more questions than answers. While international diplomacy does seem to be accelerating, a massive unilateral cut from Saudi Arabia, or even a bilateral cut with Russia, remains highly unlikely.  


Tyler Durden

Thu, 04/02/2020 – 22:18

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/3aHPFBS Tyler Durden

Texas Case Could Produce One Of The First COVID-19 Hate-Crime Charges

Texas Case Could Produce One Of The First COVID-19 Hate-Crime Charges

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

Jose L. Gomez, 19, may have the dubious distinction of being the first person charged and convicted of a Corona hate crime.

Gomez is accused of stabbing three members of a family of four inside a Sam’s Club. The family is Asian and police say that he was trying to stop them from spreading the virus. His victims included a 2-year-old and 6-year-old child. While other anti-Asian hate crimes have been reported in the pandemic, this one could result in an early plea or conviction.

The FBI report states:

“The suspect indicated that he stabbed the family because he thought the family was Chinese, and infecting people with coronavirus.”

The report itself confirms that federal prosecutors are considered federal hate crime charges. He is currently charged with three counts of attempted capital murder and one count of aggravated assault with a deadly weapon.

There is a hero in this story.

A store employee, Zack Owen, intervened, tackled Gomez and brought him to the ground. Owen was stabbed in the leg and cut on the hand as a result of his brave action. Off-duty Border Patrol Agent, Bernie Ramirez was fortunately also present and rushed forward to place Gomez into custody. He also credited Owen for his bravery.

Most criminal defense lawyers would be asking for an immediate psychiatric evaluation and ultimately some form of plea bargain. This is not a case that you want to ever see the inside of a jury trial.


Tyler Durden

Thu, 04/02/2020 – 22:05

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/3bKTOFf Tyler Durden

Concerned Citizens Or Rats? Americans Snitch On Local Businesses & Neighbors Amid Shutdowns

Concerned Citizens Or Rats? Americans Snitch On Local Businesses & Neighbors Amid Shutdowns

Scott Horton at the Libertarian Institute is alarmed at how fast the rise in corona-moral shaming is translating into Americans snitching to police and town authorities on local small businesses and neighbors

“Umm, umm, ummm! I’m telling on you! I’m gonna get you in trouble!” – Nickie and Melissa, Mrs. Tuttle’s kindergarten class, 1981.

Now look here, I think everyone who can possibly stay at home to try to “flatten the curve” and short-circuit this novel coronavirus, the better. But do you people really have to turn America into North Korea in the process?

Local neighborhood bar, file image via Frost Design

Mere hyperbole perhaps? Well, take a quick look at these tales from Middle Amerika amid the nationwide coronavirus lockdown. Apparently the Associated Press notices enough of a rising trend to profile the emerging numbers of what it bluntly dubs “snitches”:

Snitches are emerging as enthusiastic allies as cities, states and countries work to enforce directives meant to limit person-to-person contact amid the virus pandemic that has claimed tens of thousands of lives worldwide. They’re phoning police and municipal hotlines, complaining to elected officials and shaming perceived scofflaws on social media.

“In some places, investigators are patrolling the streets, looking for violators,” AP notes.  “In some cases, residents are turning on neighbors.”

* * *

Oklahoma

“One Tulsa, Oklahoma, bar owner said more than a dozen motorcyclists showed up unannounced, but he served them a round of shots anyway to celebrate a birthday. Another live-streamed a drag queen show on Facebook while up to 20 people drank inside the locked bar, ignoring police when they knocked on the door.”

Both were busted — and received misdemeanor citations and court dates — after police responded to tips that the bars were violating the mayor’s order shuttering all nonessential businesses to help slow the spread of the coronavirus.”

“…Lt. Meulenberg said the department’s call volume has increased substantially with residents ratting out businesses and neighbors alike, though they can’t respond to all of them.”

Illinois

“In Chicago, a yoga studio that believed it qualified as an essential health and wellness service was closed after the city — tipped off by several residents — disagreed. Teacher Naveed Abidi of Bikram Yoga West Loop studio said he thought the studio could remain open if the space was sanitized, class size limited and students stayed far enough apart.”

“If we were naughty with the government’s order, then we’re very, very sorry said Abidi, who faces a fine of up to $10,000. “We’re not here to cause problems, we’re here to practice our poses.”

Via PhillyMag

Colorado

A team enforcing Denver’s shelter-in-place order issued five citations — including to Hobby Lobby and a Game Stop franchise that claimed it was essential — and more than 600 warnings to businesses and individuals as of Tuesday, city spokesman Alton Dillard said. The team also patrols neighborhoods, parks and recreation areas.

Connecticut

“Naugatuck, Connecticut, resident Gwen Becker said she was ‘mortified’ when she drove by a golf course and saw a crowd gathered around a food truck and eating at tables together. So she took a video that her friend posted on Facebook — prompting the mayor to shut down the course.”

“I was angry and upset, and I threw some f-bombs,” said Becker, 54. “You’re not going to consider that what you’re doing could kill somebody?”

New Jersey

“In Newark, New Jersey, police shut down 15 businesses in one night and cited 161 people for violating the governor’s restrictions, saying others would be next if they didn’t heed directives. And Maryland State Police said they’d conducted nearly 6,600 business and crowd compliance checks.”

Even Funerals!

“Chicago police even disbanded a funeral Sunday after seeing a group of up to 60 people, many elderly, congregating inside a church, police spokesman Anthony Guglielmi said.”

“Balcony Police”

In one viral video, the person recording it is heard criticizing a woman who decides to go for a jog and resists police orders to produce her ID card. Another shows a family of four heading to a supermarket carrying a scooter for one of their children while half a dozen neighbors yell at them from the window.

* * *

Finally, we should ask: what will America look like when its economy finally opens back up and bars, restaurants, studios, and streets are bustling once again?

Possibly a certain paranoia and fear will remain, and deep suspicions will endure, after in crisis-hit times neighbor so easily turned against neighbor.


Tyler Durden

Thu, 04/02/2020 – 21:45

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2UET4fp Tyler Durden

Beijing Ramps Up South China Sea War Drills As Pandemic Swallows West

Beijing Ramps Up South China Sea War Drills As Pandemic Swallows West

China conducted war drills in the South China Sea this week as the COVID-19 pandemic terrorizes the US, forcing the Pentagon to divert its attention to the Homeland to manage the public health crisis that is unfolding rather than countering Beijing in the open seas.

Asia Times reports that in recent days China ramped up military drills and deployed military assets in the highly contested waters of the South China Sea, specifically in areas that are known to have massive fossil fuel reserves. 

While some see China’s nationalistic messaging as a bid to rally its people during difficult Covid-19 times, others view the increasingly aggressive naval maneuvers as a bid to exploit America’s weakened condition to secure new advantage in the hot spot theater. -Asia Times

While China conducted maritime exercises, countries surrounding the South China Sea, who also have staked rights to the fossil fuel reserves in the contested waters, are in countrywide lockdowns enforced by their respective militaries. This is an instance where military assets of Western powers and allies are preoccupied in their own countries, as Beijing sails around the South China Sea uncontested. 

Many people don’t realize, the Chinese virus unleashed a nuclear bomb on America, but did not destroy any physical assets. Instead, it imploded the financial economy. And without China firing a shot, the US Navy has likely lost the USS Theodore Roosevelt (CVN-71), a massive nuclear aircraft carrier stationed in Guam. At least 1,000 sailors have been evacuated from the vessel for fear of contracting the virus. 

The virus is a giant distraction from the Pentagon’s freedom of navigation missions that are used to counter China in the South China Sea. With most of its time and effort focused on fighting the virus on the Homeland and maintaining social order – America’s power overseas diminishes. 

The Western world is melting down over a virus outbreak. China didn’t even have to fire one shot – as it now seizes this opportunity to increase its power in the South China Sea: 

China’s bid to opportunize on the Covid-19 crisis which originated in its Wuhan city has been on display on multiple fronts. On one hand, Beijing has launched a concerted attempt to reshape the pandemic’s narrative, including the bizarre suggestion by top Chinese officials that the US military planted the virus in China.

This has gone hand-in-hand with attempts to drive a diplomatic wedge between the US and its traditional transatlantic allies, some of which have recently committed naval vessels to US-led freedom of navigation operations in the South China Sea. -Asia Times

The People’s Liberation Army flexed its muscles in the northern portions of the South China Sea last month, saying: 

Training for war preparedness will not be stopped even in the middle of the Covid-19 epidemic, and the training of carrier-based fighter pilots must continue.

The Global Times described the latest war drill as part of fighting the pandemic. 

An aircraft carrier is a large warship with many people concentrated in its cabins, making it vulnerable to infectious diseases. Being able to successfully conduct related missions indicated that the Liaoning has done a great job in controlling the epidemic. – Beijing-based naval expert Li Jie told Global Times.

And just like that, a Chinese virus implodes the American economy, takes out an aircraft carrier in the Pacific, and China makes a big move in the South China Sea. Is the virus the first silent shot fired by Beijing in World War III? 


Tyler Durden

Thu, 04/02/2020 – 21:25

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/3azLdoR Tyler Durden

It Begins: US Treasury Balance Hits All Time High After Historic Flood Of Bill Issuance

It Begins: US Treasury Balance Hits All Time High After Historic Flood Of Bill Issuance

One didn’t need to read our post explaining why with the Fed’s reverse repo operations now much more aggressively used (and in fact seeing some $182BN of usage well into the second quarter, so much more than just a quarter-end window dressing exercise) …

… than the Fed’s recently expanded, massive repo ops, which have basically been abandoned by Dealers in the past week …

… there was now a shortage of Treasuries: a quick look at where T-bills yields were trading on Monday was sufficient – virtually every issue to the left of 3 months had a deeply negative yield, and ushered in a risk-free arb that bond traders could take advantage of to make virtually unlimited money by purchasing Bills at a 0%-yield capped auctions and then selling them in the open market above par.

That’s when Steven Mnuchin realized he had to do something to address the bond shortage which was literally taking money from the Treasury and handing it to Wall Street, and that thing was to unleash a historic flood of Bills and Cash Management Bills, something we pointed out in “Treasury To Sell Over A Quarter Trillion Bills In 48 Hours.” Immediately the yields across the curve spiked, with all tenors now yielding back above 0% (the Bill arb disappearing in the process).

Yet this does not do justice to the absolute tsunami of issuance in the Bill market where the Treasury did everything in its power to not only flood the market with new debt (not that it had much of a choice) but to also prefund the Treasury’s historic outflows in the coming days.

As shown in the chart below, in addition to the previously discussed Bills and CMBs, this week’s Treasury has been on an absolute tear and in just the past 4 days has issued, in addition to the regularly scheduled 4-Week, 8-Week, 3-Month and 6-Month Bills, also 154 Day, 102 Day, 39 Day, 119 Day, 42 Day, 69 Day, and 37 Day Cash Management Bills, as shown in the chart below.

This $563 billion in gross Bill issuance ($93BN on Monday, $154BN on Tuesday, $85BN on Wednesday, $220BN on Thursday), is more than anything ever seen previously in a 4 day period. And while a portion of this gross issuance went to offset current maturities, the net effect was massive nonetheless, and nowhere more so than the Treasury’s cash balance (i.e. the Federal Reserve Account).

And, as shown in the final chart, the result of this Bill issuance flood is that the cash balance of the Treasury (i.e. the US government) just hit a record $515 billion, the highest on record.

Why? Because tomorrow is the day the crisis response officially begins as hundreds of billions in small, medium and very large business bailout demands hit the Treasury as up to $2 trillion in funds are handed out across the economy over the coming weeks.

As such, the half a trillion dollars held electronically at the US Treasury is just the beginning.

And here a quick aside: consider the path the money is taking before ending up in Joe Sixpack’s pocket: a desk worker at the Treasury punches a few buttons and sells electronic certificates which mature in a few weeks and are backstopped by the US government and which in turn fund the Treasury’s account with electronic dollars which were paid by some investor who similarly punched a few buttons on his computer and in hopes of parking his cash somewhere safe, handed over his electronic money to the Treasury desk worker. As a result of this transaction, hundreds of millions will receive a small amount of electronic ones and zeros in the next few days, which for countless people will mean the difference between disaster and survival.


Tyler Durden

Thu, 04/02/2020 – 21:22

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/3dSYE5a Tyler Durden

“Who Are These Parents?” – As COVID-19 Cases Soar, America’s Teenaged ‘Covidiots’ Still Aren’t Obeying Quarantine Orders

“Who Are These Parents?” – As COVID-19 Cases Soar, America’s Teenaged ‘Covidiots’ Still Aren’t Obeying Quarantine Orders

Looking back, the fact that most Americans went about their daily lives as if nothing was happening for most of February – heeding the official advice of mayors including NYC’s Bill de Blasio and others – seems almost unconscionable. All the while, COVID-19 was spreading, unseen, among communities in suburban Seattle, and in NYC and the suburban areas surrounding the city.

And yet, even after colleges around the country cancelled classes or converted to all-digital learning, hundreds of thousands of “Covidiot” teenagers and early twentysomethings were still hell-bent on capitalizing on cheap flights and enjoying the extended spring break of their dreams, public welfare be damned.

Many of these selfishly ignorant teenagers helped spread the virus around the country, as studies have now shown. But sadly, the ignorance of American teenagers – and the at-times depressing impotence of parents struggling to ‘civilize’ them – apparently knows no bounds. Because the Washington Post‘s ‘society’ section just ran a story about parents trying to cope with teenagers who are almost pathologically incapable of staying at home and doing nothing.

The reporter told the story of one suburban Virginia mom with an undisclosed medical condition that has left her immunocompromised. Despite this, her 18-year-old son insists on going out and meeting up with “his boys” – fellow high-school-senior-age teenagers who have built a fort in the nearby woods where they go to violate the newfound strictures of society.

For two weeks now, since Loudoun County closed its schools March 12, Julian has been building a fort near the Potomac River with “my boys,” he says, about two dozen seniors who show up randomly, bringing free pallets of wood they’ve spotted on Craigslist and building supplies from Home Depot. Rather than socially distancing, they’ve hammered away for hours before grilling hot dogs and fish they catch in a nearby pond and huddling together “to chill.”

Julian arrived first to the clearing Thursday and offered a tour of the fort, which rose from the wooded landscape like a hermit’s dream with its frame of poles set in quick cement, covered by a blue tarp to keep out the rain. In recent days, the crowd had been dwindling as news of the coronavirus contagion grew more alarming and parents began putting their collective feet down.

Many teens in the Washington region and across the country are gradually moving past anger and depression to acceptance, at least for the time being, as they grieve the social losses that come with self-quarantining. But Julian — his mother wanted his last name withheld to protect his privacy — is stuck in denial.

His mother fights back with an endless barrage of “sticky note” reminders encouraging her son to wash his hands for more than 20 seconds and to take other steps to protect the family from being sickened by the careless actions of their ungrateful teenage child.

Julian knows he is supposed to keep his distance from his mother, who takes a medication that compromises her immune system. He calls her concerns “100 percent valid,” and said “it freaked me out” when she recently had a small cold. Even so, he sheepishly tries to duck into her space.

“Staying six feet apart from my mom is hard,” Julian says. “I like to go up and hug her all the time.”

As for Elisa’s written reminders, “As soon as I walk in, I get hit in the face with a sticky note,” Julian says. “You can’t grab something in the kitchen without a sticky note in your face.”

He seems more amused than annoyed; again, he understands. Still, “it’s hard to get in the habit of washing my hands literally after everything I touch,” he says.

No such rules apply at “Coronavirus Outpost,” the name he has given his communal fort in the woods.

Maybe these kids will remember the coronavirus as their big struggle, their “World War II” as it were. Though, given the tendency to accept and embellish unpleasant experiences into “traumas”, we imagine that American teens will use this as one more excuse why the government owes them every handout imaginable, from paying off their student loans to covering health-care costs for life.

One mom wondered why some parents were still allowing kids to have group sleepovers and other social events when the governor had expressly forbade gatherings of more than 5.

Kelly Davis was willing to take a hit when her 14-year-old daughter, Victoria, begged to go to a sleepover at a friend’s house. Victoria, a competitive gymnast and straight-A student who Davis calls “the love of my life,” pled with her mother. “Why can’t I go?” she demanded, as her friends watched raptly on FaceTime.

“First, I made her get off FaceTime,” recounted Davis, 52, a single mom and special education teacher in Elkhart, Ind. “I said, ‘No,Victoria.’ I really don’t care what other parents are doing,” She pulled the “grandmother card,” because Davis’s 84-year-old mother lives with them.

Still, Davis finds herself resenting other parents. After the sleepover smackdown, another friend invited Victoria to a birthday party.

“Who are these parents?” she asked. “… It’s hard when other parents aren’t doing the right thing. It makes me look like the mean mom.”

Kim Baxter was able to forge alliances with other parents so her 17-year-old daughter, Charlotte, a senior at Yorktown High in Arlington, could spend time with friends during the pandemic. Outside, of course, and the requisite six feet apart.

It did not go well.

Charlotte unwittingly texted her mother a photo while the foursome were out hiking. “They weren’t keeping any kind of distance,” Baxter, a 51-year-old attorney, said ruefully.

She later declined on Charlotte’s behalf when the mother of her daughter’s boyfriend and two other parents jointly approved a group camping trip. “The boys are Eagle Scouts and so that wasn’t my concern,” she said. “It was just the close proximity of what they were doing.”

Charlotte “had a moment,” then that moment passed. Now Charlotte and her boyfriend are allowed to hang out at each others’ houses.

“I’ve met his mom, and we’ve been texting,” Baxter said. “I think we both kind of agreed that these two are pretty tight and it would probably be unhealthy to separate them.”

These aren’t the first reports of American teenagers not taking the quarantine seriously. Oddly, the young’s seeming unwillingness to accept that they truly are vulnerable has led to them catching the disease in larger numbers since they’re more likely to recklessly ignore quarantine advice.


Tyler Durden

Thu, 04/02/2020 – 21:05

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2X3DKKJ Tyler Durden