Tag: finance

Toilets & Skyscrapers: How Chicagoland’s Elite Push Property Tax Bills Onto Average Joes

Authored by Ted Dabrowski and John Klingner via Wirepoints.org,

Many of Chicagoland’s elite know exactly how to pass the property-tax buck onto other residents. For decades they’ve used their powerful connections to cut their own property tax bills and push the costs onto other unsuspecting residents. And that’s left many lower-income homeowners footing ever-larger tax bills.

The latest, most blatant example is Gov. J.B. Pritzker’s removal of toilets from one of his two Chicago mansions. Pritzker ripped out the toilets and convinced then-Cook County Assessor Joseph Berrios the home was “uninhabitable.”

That move tanked the assessed value of the home and reduced Pritzker’s property tax bill by nearly $100,000. His tax savings became tax hikes for other homeowners.

While Pritzker’s actions are scandalous, they are nothing new in Illinois. House Speaker Mike Madigan and Chicago Alderman Ed Burke’s law firms have been helping commercial property owners in Chicago lower the assessed values of their buildings for decades, to values far lower than the buildings are worth. That’s where the big dollars are, as we highlight later in this piece.

But Pritzker’s actions exemplify exactly how the system works. Learn the tricks, “torture the data,” hire a well-connected lawyer and get the assessor’s buy-in. And just like that, a tax bill is cut.

Smaller tax bills for some doesn’t mean a local government takes in less in taxes. Instead, the city and county’s remaining residents are required to make up the difference.

That problem – how lower-income homeowners have been hurt by tax shifting – was well documented by the Tribune in 2017 in a four-part series covering the full extent of the assessment process and its corruption.

The struggling residents in Chicago’s south suburbs have suffered the most from the unfair assessment process. Wirepoints recently highlighted how residents in that area are now living with collapsed home prices and sky-high effective property tax rates that sometimes reach double digits.

Using the system

Pritzker used the corrupt system run by Berrios to successfully lower the assessment on his Chicago mansion back in 2015. The mansion was originally valued by the assessor at over $6 million. That was until Pritzker had the toilets removed.

Under a murky rule that allows properties to be deemed “uninhabitable,” Berrios lowered the assessed value of the property to just under $1.1 million. That dropped Pritzker’s total tax bills over several years by a total of more than $330,000 – much of which was passed on to other residents within the same tax jurisdictions in the form of higher tax bills.

Pritzker eventually paid the money back, and the scandal didn’t stop him from getting elected governor. But it could add Pritzker to the growing list of indicted Illinois governors. As it turns out, the feds have been investigating the whole toilet scheme since October of last year.

Regardless of how that plays out, Pritzker’s actions provide the perfect example of how property scams and deals impact other people’s properties, their taxes and their lives.

That same tax shift happens when lawmakers like Madigan and Burke engage in the appeal process through their high-powered law firms. They use their influence and relationships with politicians like Berrios – the assessor was also simultaneously the Cook County Democratic Party Chairman for many years – to bring down the property values of major Chicago properties.

Crain’s recently looked at how top commercial properties in Chicago are assessed and compared them to the recent sales prices of those same buildings. The flaws in the process – and the impact they have on Chicagoland residents – becomes evident quickly.

Crain’s analysis looked at: 

“the 50 biggest property sales in the county over the past five years and compares the sales prices with the values of the same properties as estimated by the assessor’s office. The gap is stark: The prices of all 50 properties add up to $17.1 billion, while the assessor values them at only $7.8 billion.

The difference between sale prices and assessments, according to Crain’s, was $9.2 billion. That’s equivalent to the cost of more than 40,000 median-priced Chicago-area homes.

Those billions in lower values resulted in higher tax bills for residents across Cook County.

Beyond Cook County

Low skyscraper assessments in Chicago also have an impact beyond Cook County. The more poor Chicago can make itself look, the more it gets in state education subsidies. And that means there’s less funding to go around for other more needy districts around the state.

On the flip side, communities in South Cook are disproportionately harmed. Their proportionally higher assessments mean that school districts in those communities get less state money than they otherwise would.

Simplicity and transparency

Cook County’s new Assessor, Fritz Kaegi, says he’s committed to reversing the corruption inherent in the assessment process. We’ll see how that turns out.

At the very least it’s going to be a messy few years as the relative value of assessments shift from South Cook to wealthier suburbs and from residential to commercial properties.

Whatever his methods, Kaegi’s end result has to be an assessment process and a property tax system that is more simple and transparent.

If Kaegi and other officials can’t accomplish that, then those willing to cheat the system will continue to find ways to push the nation’s highest property taxes onto ordinary Illinoisans.

And that will continue the flight of Chicagoans out of the city.

Read more about Illinois’ property taxes and the crisis in South Cook and beyond:

via ZeroHedge News http://bit.ly/2Ll7GxE Tyler Durden

CDOs That Nearly Destroyed The Global Economy Are Back, But Now They’re “Safer”

Since Wall Street banks started re-entering the market for synthetic CDOs, securities that are remembered by some as one of the worst excesses of the pre-crisis era, the market for synthetic CDOs is booming once again, as the Financial Times reported on Friday.

But, before observers start squawking about how the rapid growth in both synthetic and traditional CDOs is a ‘sign of the top’, the banks and their risk managers would like you to hear them out: These products are much safer than their crisis-era counterparts, they say, in part because, this time around, they’re tied to corporate debt, instead of risky mortgage bonds.

And as any regular Zero Hedge reader would probably know, the US corporate debt market is sound, deeply liquid and in no way resembles a ticking time bomb with enough exposure to precipitate a re-run of the crisis.

Wall Street banks who are issuing the synthetic CDOs (a group that includes Citigroup, BNP Paribas and Société Générale while Barclays) insist that they are exercising “prudent risk controls” this time around. Meanwhile, hedge funds like Anchorage Capital Group and Fortress Investment Group who have muscled into the market for issuing CDOs, believe the business will prove profitable during the next downturn, Bloomberg reports.

Though the CDO market remains smaller than its rival CLO market, it grew last year for the first time since the financial crisis.

CLOs

Risk managers for funds issuing CDOs and Wall Street banks expanding their synthetic business agree that the securities are much safer than their crisis-era analogues, in part because they’re tied to corporate bonds, a more stable market – at least in theory. Though some would disagree.

“It’s almost beyond belief that the very same people that claimed to be expert risk managers, who almost blew up the world in 2008, are back with the very same products,” said Dennis Kelleher, chief executive of advocacy group Better Markets.

And as far as synthetic CDOs are concerned, the stigma from the crisis has lingered.

“As soon as you think synthetic CDOs, you think of the financial crisis. It has taken investors some time to get over that,” said Peter Tchir, chief macro strategist at Academy Securities. “On a scale of one to 10, with one being very cautious and 10 being very aggressive, this is only around a five.”

In case you weren’t trading securities during the Bush era, or were simply too young to remember the financial crisis and the esoteric credit products that contributed to the near-collapse of the global financial system, here’s a quick explainer:

CDO

 

As buyers scramble for yield as credit spreads collapse, one can’t help but wonder…have we reached the point where savvy investors are willing to ‘short everything they touch’?

via ZeroHedge News http://bit.ly/2PJpK3g Tyler Durden

Here’s Why Taking Iran Oil Exports To Zero Is Likely Impossible

Authored by Elijah Magnier, Middle East based chief international war correspondent for Al Rai Media

Many analysts believe a US-Israeli war on Iran and Lebanon is likely despite the lack of evidence of preparations for such a war. Although forces could be quickly mobilized after a political decision to go to war, all indications point to a non-military war situation for the simple reason that the US “strangulation war” is not costly to the US establishment and fits perfectly with the objectives of its main Middle Eastern ally, Israel. Nevertheless, menacing letters are being exchanged among involved parties who are, nonetheless, prepared for the worst-case scenario.

As far as Iran goes, the “zero oil exports” – the US wants to impose on the 1stof May – may be impossible to achieve. It will not be easy for OPEC members to compensate the two million Iranian barrels of oil daily (out of 3.45 million of total daily production), as President Donald Trump would like.

The Persian Gulf Star Co. gas refinery in Bandar Abbas, Iran, in January. Bloomberg via Getty Images

The US objective is to curb Iran’s will and force it to the negotiation table to dictate elements necessary for the security of Israel in the Middle East. A goal no US establishment has ever managed to achieve since the “Islamic Revolution” took power in Iran in 1979, notwithstanding the sanctions imposed over four decades.

Iran has land borders with Pakistan, Iraq and Turkey. It is logistically easy to supply these countries with Iran’s high-quality light crude oil at a cheaper price than the market price. During the Bush and Obama eras, Iran never stopped exporting its oil and exchanging it for hard currency or gold, despite sanctions.

Moreover, China needs its 650,000 bpd. Several Chinese companies offer technology and industrial services and commerce their expertise and products with Iranian companies in exchange for oil, and these companies are not willing to stop this trade. This alone will be enough to cause the failure of the US establishment’s objective of “zero exports” without necessarily meaning that such a breakdown will lead to a military confrontation.

President Trump is not willing to engage his forces in a major war, even if he has the audacity to ask Saudi Arabia to pay for it. The US President may have to find another achievement in the Middle East to brag about and exploit during the campaign for his second mandate in 2020.

This US administration, like previous ones, will likely fail to curb Iran’s will despite the severe sanctions it has imposed. Nor will it succeed in forcing Iran to stop support for its partners in the Middle East (i.e. Lebanon, Iraq, Syria, Afghanistan and Yemen). The support of Iran to state and non-state actors in the region is a self-imposed obligation cited in many articles in the Iranian constitution.

Moreover, Iran will never agree to open its missile industry to inspection or to halt its missile production, as requested by the US establishment. Iran’s missiles represent its main efficient weapon to maintain a balance of forces sufficient to dissuade all its potential enemies.

And last, Iran and its Middle Eastern partners will not abandon the Palestinian cause until the last Palestinian group decides to abandon its territory to Israel. Therefore, Trump should be content – as the achievement of his first mandate – with the “gifts” he has given to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu: Jerusalem and the occupied Syrian Golan Heights.

The bras-de-fer between the US and Iran will likely not wind down as long as Trump is in power, so long as he is unwilling meet Iran’s two conditions for the resumption of negotiations with Tehran: lifting the heavy sanctions imposed on Iran, and honoring the nuclear deal signed by his predecessor Barack Obama. Trump seems unable to accept the end of unilateral US hegemony over the world.

via ZeroHedge News http://bit.ly/2UYe79J Tyler Durden

Lindsey Graham Wants Aircraft Carrier To Confront Russians & Cubans In Venezuela

No, it doesn’t appear to be mere hyperbole, considering it’s the well-known neocon uber-hawk senator from South Carolina, who like the late John McCain would never waist precious opportunity to put the USA firmly on the war path.  

Addressing recent reports that Cuba and Russia have sent troops to Venezuela to prop up embattled President Nicolas Maduro, Sen. Lindsey Graham angrily tweeted Friday, “Where is our aircraft carrier?”

“Cuba, Russia send troops to prop Maduro up in Venezuela…..while we talk/sanction,” Graham stated.

And he followed with, “Where is our aircraft carrier?”

A spokesperson for Graham later explained the tweet was designed to express support for a “show of force,” according to the Washington Examiner.

It’s worth pausing to keep in perspective that a sitting senator is now calling for an aircraft carrier to lead what he would no doubt desire to be a full scale invasion, regime change, and occupation of a country that has never attacked nor substantially threatened the United States — but of course it does have lots of oil and refuses to install a US puppet leader (in the form of Juan Guaido). 

Graham’s tweet was in response to national security adviser John Bolton’s latest somewhat dubious claim that between 20,000 to 25,000 Cuban soldiers have been sent to Venezuela to prop up Maduro, which Bolton offered as explanation for why this week’s Guaido-led coup attempt failed so miserably, barely even getting off the ground as it appears a mere handful of military members defected. 

Some Congressional members have long accused Russia of interfering in Venezuelan affairs, for which apparently according to Graham’s logic, a US aircraft carrier deployment is warranted.

Russia, however, says it’s only deployed dozens of “military specialists” to service preexisting military equipment contracts — an explanation which Trump appears to actually agree with, given that during a Friday phone call with Putin, Trump said the Russian president wants to see “something positive happen” for Venezuela, and further that Putin is not looking to get involved in the current crisis, according to CNN.

“He’s not looking at all to get involved in Venezuela,” declared Trump in reference to Putin following the phone call in front of White House reporters. 

Trump’s Friday afternoon statement denying Russian interference in the Latin American oil-rich but cash-strapped country also undercut his own national security adviser, given Bolton forcefully asserted Wednesday in an interview with Fox News that “We are not going to see the Russians take over a country in the Western Hemisphere.” 

Bolton accused Russia and Cuba of conspiring to secretly deploy troops to Venezuela in order to prevent so-called “legitimate Interim President” Guaido from “rightfully” taking power as head over the Venezuelan military. 

But given Trump’s apparently positive “very productive talk” with Putin, it certainly doesn’t appear Graham will get his desired aircraft carrier deployment or even heightened US troop readiness to the Venezuelan Caribbean anytime soon. 

via ZeroHedge News http://bit.ly/2Lme9bQ Tyler Durden

This Is What Prison Life Will Look Like For Michael Cohen

Former Trump attorney Michael Cohen is due to report on Monday to the Federal Correctional Institution, Otisville, where he will serve a three-year sentence for tax evasion, lying to Congress and campaign finance crimes. 

Otisville, a medium-security prison, is home to the likes of former NFL star Darren Sharper, Fyre Festival’s Billy McFarland and former reality TV star Mike “The Situation” Sorrentino. 

And according to ABC News, the facility once ranked by Forbes as one of “America’s 10 Cushiest Prisons” will allow Cohen to basically hang out away from his wife, playing horseshoes and working out with a bunch of like-minded criminals. 

The camp does have its allure. About 115 inmates sleep in bunks lined up in barrack-style halls, instead of individual or two-man cells like in higher-security facilities. There are lockers to store personal belongings, washers and dryers for laundry, microwaves to heat up food and ice machines to keep cool.

Alums include accountant Kenneth Starr, who was accused of bilking celebrities like Uma Thurman with bad investments, and former Cendant chairman Walter Forbes and ex-Connecticut Gov. John Rowland. New York Ponzi schemer Bernie Madoff wanted to go to Otisville, but the Bureau of Prisons sent him to North Carolina instead.

Otisville is also known as a favorite among prison-bound Jews for its Kosher meals and Shabbat services.

Add in recreational amenities like tennis courts, horseshoes and cardio equipment, and it sounds like the closest thing the federal prison system has to sleepaway camp. –ABC News

That said, Former Otisville case manager Jack Donson says it’s hardly “Club Fed.” 

“Prison is disrespectful. It’s impersonal,” said Donson. “He’s never going to get any sleep because there’s always lights on, there’s always inmates snoring. There are officers walking around jingling keys. You shower out in the open. It’s very demeaning.”

Donson also said that Cohen – widely known as a “rat” – may qualify for the prison’s protective housing unit over his cooperation with special counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation and other probes. 

“He’s not a good fit,” added Donson. 

Retired Otisville warden Cameron Lindsay said he would “think long and hard about placing Cohen in a general population, at least in the beginning,” given the “intense media coverage and extreme type of support the president receives from some of his supporters.”

According to the prison’s handbook, inmates are advised to carry themselves in a “confident manner at all times,” trust their instincts and to “choose your associates wisely,” according to ABC. 

Cohen will check in and be given an orientation, as well as a medical and mental health evaluation. He will then be assigned a job, given clothing, and a set of bedding and towels. 

Before his first month is up, Cohen will be classified and given recommendations for various prison programs. 

During a typical day, per ABC: “During the week, it’s lights on at 6 a.m., followed by breakfast. Work duties, such as mowing the grounds or cleaning up the prison, are performed from 7:30 a.m. to 3 p.m., with a break for lunch at 11. Dinner is served beginning at 4:15 p.m. It’s lights out at 11:30 p.m.”

Inmates get to sleep in on the weekends – with lights on at 7 a.m. 

Otisville, within 35 miles (56 kilometers) of the Orthodox Jewish communities of Kiryas Joel and Monsey, is “definitely sought out by Jewish offenders,” said Matthew Perry, executive director of Jewish Prisoner Services International.

The commissary sells more than 100 kosher items, more than most federal prisons. (Matzo goes for $3.15 and gefilte fish costs $5.15. Need a yarmulke? It’s $6). A rabbi on staff full-time leads the chaplainry. At Passover, the prison puts on an elaborate Seder. –ABC News

“It really makes a difference if you’re Jewish because a lot of guys want to say certain prayers you can only say with 10 Jewish men,” said former Otisville prisoner, Lawrence Dressler – who served 18 months for mortgage fraud, in reference to the Jewish quorum known as minyan. “You have Sabbath services on Friday night, and the prison even allows inmates to bring in food from the outside.“

According to the report, the prison observes every Jewish holiday, including Hanukkah, when the men will gather in the chapel to sing. 

“Everyone had their own menorah,” said Dressler. 

“He’ll make a few friends,” he added of Cohen. “Everyone ends up having a couple of good friends.”

via ZeroHedge News http://bit.ly/2VgDAAb Tyler Durden

Unlike Real Insurance, Social Security “Insurance” Creates Greater Risk For The Future

Authored by Gary Galles via The Mises Institute,

Every time the Social Security trustees issue their annual report, some people notice that the system’s huge unfunded liabilities (currently, a $42.1 trillion cumulative shortfall) are inherently unfair to future Americans. That threatens its status as the “third rail” of politics, which electrocutes anyone who tries to touch it.

So Social Security’s army of defenders go on the attack. And one of their greatest weapons is that the program has been promoted as insurance program ever since it started and taking away insurance sounds like a bad idea.

In a sense, Social Security does act as a form of mandatory old age insurance for participants. However, rather than paying off with earnings from investments, as with private insurance, its taxes provide only promised future government benefits (though the Supreme Court long ago ruled in favor of the government’s claim that it did not need to provide the benefits promised).

However, for Social Security to really be insurance, a group’s “premiums” would have to finance the benefits they receive. But that has not even remotely been true of Social Security. Older generations got far more in benefits than they paid. They may believe they deserve a massively subsidized deal (especially when it is falsely presented as if early recipients actually paid all the costs of their benefits), but that deal is dramatically unfair to younger generations forced to pick up the multi-trillion dollar bill to make good on program promises.

And this is where a key distinction must be noted. In real insurance, people pay more now so that they will have more assets in their future. But Social Security has transferred money in the opposite direction — giving more money to those currently older at the expense of subsequent generations. From society’s perspective, then, Social Security acts as reverse insurance, leaving less for the future.

At Social Security’s inception, and with each of its many expansions, those already retired paid no new taxes, and those near retirement paid more for only a few years, but both groups received increased benefits throughout retirement. That necessarily meant that those who were younger (including those not yet born) would have to pick up the remainder of their tab. And the attempt to make good on the unfunded commitments of this massive income redistribution to earlier beneficiaries is the source of Social Security’s current financial problems, as well as why there is no fair way out of them–there is no way to make good on its over-promises but by being unfair to someone.

Social Security’s reverse insurance accumulation of negative balances is also used to oppose any attempt to shift toward private retirement mechanisms. Under private insurance, current workers finance their own retirement benefits — and only their benefits. But if those younger could access such options to escape having Social Security’s huge unfunded liabilities imposed on them, someone else would necessarily be left holding the bag. So politicians instead pander to seniors who are much more likely to be politically engaged and vote than the young, by demonizing any such move as threatening the status quo, even though the status quo is unsustainable anyway.

Looking at Social Security’s finances as of a certain future date, while depressing, injects a similar bias in favor of the program. It means that trillions of dollars owed to those who have paid in, but who have not yet received all their promised benefits, can be made to disappear from public view. However, such arbitrary cut-off dates misleadingly make any private retirement mechanism, which produces no such “hidden” burden on later generations, look worse by comparison.

Assertions that Social Security is essentially just insurance, good to have in an uncertain world, so that it should be politically untouchable, ignore the fact that benefits far exceeded “contributions” paid for earlier recipients every time it expanded. The great deal it offered them was provided by stealing a substantial part of what would be actuarially fair premiums from future generations. But that makes it a bad and unsustainable deal today, which will only get worse the longer we ignore that reality. A program which leaves fewer resources for future Americans is the opposite of insurance, which doesn’t justify maintaining or expanding it on the backs of younger generations who are already big losers from the system. If we are to make rational policy in this area, we need to confront this government-sponsored “child abuse,” rather than letting a rhetorical cheat “insure” that it is overlooked.

via ZeroHedge News http://bit.ly/2WrQesI Tyler Durden

Biden Was Wrong: Defense Department Says China Plans To Replace US, Become Top Power

It looks like President Trump was right yet again when he put Joe Biden on blast for being “very naive” about China after the 2020 Democratic frontrunner said the world’s second-largest economy “is not competition for us.”

“If Biden actually said that, that’s a very dumb statement,” Trump said in a Thursday interview with Fox News.

Considering the brewing tit-for-tat antagonisms between the American Navy and People’s Liberation Army-Navy in the Strait of Taiwan and the South China Sea, it’s hard to believe that any American politician – much less one vying to be the commander-in-chief of the American military – would write China off so easily.

China

But in case Biden needed more evidence that China is indeed a serious geopolitical threat to the US, the Department of Defense on Friday released a report outlining Beijing’s efforts to displace the US as the dominant power in the Pacific. To achieve this aim, Beijing is expanding its military power in the region at an alarming rate. Soon, it’s expected to deploy its second aircraft carrier in the region, along with other military advancements in power projection, stating that “ground, naval, air, and missile forces are increasingly able to project power through peacetime operations.”

It’s doing all of this with the aim of supplanting US dominance in the region, and it’s expanding its military firepower to prepare for the possibility of a “regional conflict” – i.e. a “hot war” – in the Indo-Pacific, according to Stars and Stripes, which published a summary of the report.

The aircraft carrier will greatly improve China’s ability to expand its ability to project power beyond the militarized islands and reefs – “immovable aircraft carriers”, as Steve Bannon once described them.

“China’s aircraft carrier and planned follow-on carriers, once operational, will extend air defense coverage beyond the range of coastal and shipboard missile systems and will enable task group operations at increasingly longer ranges,” the report said.

The report also warned of espionage activities by China to “acquire sensitive, dual-use, or military-grade equipment,” including “dynamic random-access memory computer technology, aviation and anti-submarine warfare technologies and military communication jamming tools.”

Of particular interest in the report is its description of China’s plans to dominate the Arctic, a plan the report described as a “polar silk road.”

It also mentioned China’s growing interest in the arctic, referring to a “polar silk road” initiative. Beijing has invested in icebreaker vessels and last year published its first arctic strategy.

The report warned of a possible strengthened military presence in the Northern Sea Route, “which could include deploying submarines to the region as a deterrent against nuclear attacks.”

The report said China increasingly sees the U.S. “as adopting a more confrontational approach, reflecting China’s long-held perception that the United States seeks to contain China’s rise.”

The 2018 National Defense Strategy listed China as a competitor and a threat for its expanding influence in the Pacific and militarization of islands and reefs in the South China Sea.

“China sees recent U.S. actions on trade and the public releases of U.S. defense and national security strategies as indicative of this containment strategy,” the report said.

What’s more, the report warned, China’s expanding reach is increasing the risk that an “accident” could set off an armed conflict between the two superpowers. Because of the this, the DoD recommended that the US continue to work “from a position of strength” while seeking to reduce risk and “prevent misunderstandings” in a time of rising tensions.

via ZeroHedge News http://bit.ly/2JdadaI Tyler Durden

Try Claiming America Is “Booming” After Reading These 19 Facts About Our Current Economic Performance

Authored by Michael Snyder via The Economic Collapse blog,

After taking an honest look at the facts, I don’t know how anyone can possibly claim that the U.S. economy is “booming”.  I really don’t. 

We hear this sort of rhetoric from the mainstream media all the time, but it doesn’t make any sense.  As I discussed yesterday, nobody should be using the term “booming” to describe the state of the U.S. economy until we have a full year when GDP growth is 3 percent or better, and at this point we haven’t had that since the middle of the Bush administration.  And as you will see below, the latest numbers are clearly telling us that the U.S. economy is not even moving in the right direction.  Economic conditions are getting worse, and they weren’t that great to begin with.  According to the calculations that John Williams has made over at shadowstats.com, the U.S. economy is already in a recession, but of course the Federal Reserve will continue to tell us that everything is just fine for as long as they possibly can.  Unfortunately for them, they can’t hide the depressingly bad numbers that are coming in from all over the economy, and those numbers are all telling us the same thing.

The following are 19 facts about our current economic performance that should deeply disturb all of us…

#1 In April, U.S. auto sales were down 6.1 percent.  That was the worst decline in 8 years.

#2 The number of mortgage applications has fallen for four weeks in a row.

#3 We just witnessed the largest crash in luxury home sales in about 9 years.

#4 Existing home sales have now fallen for 13 months in a row.

#5 In March, total residential construction spending was down 8.4 percent from a year ago.

#6 U.S. manufacturing output was down 1.1 percent during the first quarter of this year.

#7 Farm incomes are falling at the fastest pace since 2016.

#8 Wisconsin dairy farmers are going bankrupt “in record numbers”.

#9 Apple iPhone sales are falling at a “record pace”.

#10 Facebook’s profits have declined for the first time since 2015.

#11 We just learned that CVS will be closing 46 stores.

#12 Office Depot has announced that they will be closing 50 locations.

#13 Overall, U.S. retailers have announced more than 6,000 store closings so far in 2019, and that means we have already surpassed the total for all of last year.

#14 A shocking new study has discovered that 137 million Americans have experienced “medical financial hardship in the past year”.

#15 Credit card charge-offs at U.S. banks have risen to the highest level in nearly 7 years.

#16 Credit card delinquencies have risen to the highest level in almost 8 years.

#17 More than half a million Americans are homeless right now.

#18 Homelessness in New York City is the worst that it has ever been.

#19 Nearly 102 million Americans do not have a job right now.  That number is worse than it was at any point during the last recession.

But at least the stock market has been doing well, right?

Actually, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has been down for two days in a row, and investors are getting kind of antsy.

Hopes of a trade deal with China had been propping up stocks in recent weeks, but it looks like negotiations may have hit “an impasse”…

The latest round of US-China trade talks may have hit an impasse, raising doubts about the chances of an early trade deal between the world’s two leading economies, Chinese official media reported on Thursday.

Unlike the previous negotiations, the 10th round of high-level economic and trade talks, which concluded here on Wednesday, had fewer details about specific discussions and results, state-run Global Times reported.

I warned my readers repeatedly that this would happen.  The Chinese are going to negotiate, but they are going to drag their feet for as long as possible in hopes that the U.S. will free Meng Wanzhou.

Of course that isn’t going to happen, and so at some point the Chinese will have to decide if they are willing to move forward with a trade deal anyway.

But if the Chinese drag their feet for too long, Trump administration officials may lose patience and take their ball and go home.

In any event, the truth is that the U.S. economy is really slowing down, and no trade deal is going to magically change that.

And a lot of other pundits are also pointing out that a substantial economic slowdown has now begun.  For example, the following comes from Brandon Smith’s latest article…

The bottom line is, the next crash has already begun. It started at the end of 2018, and is only becoming more pervasive with each passing month. This is not “doom and gloom” or “doom porn”, this is simply the facts on the ground. While stock markets are still holding (for now), the rest of the system is breaking down right on schedule. The question now is, when will the mainstream media and the Fed finally acknowledge this is happening? I suspect, as in 2008, they will openly admit to the danger only when it is far too late for people to prepare for it.

Hopefully things will remain relatively stable for as long as possible, because nobody should want to see a repeat of 2008 (or worse).

Unfortunately, we can’t stop the clock.  We are already more than a third of the way through 2019, and we will be into 2020 before we know it.

It has been an unusual year so far, but I have a feeling that it is about to get much, much more interesting.

via ZeroHedge News http://bit.ly/2PN1sWc Tyler Durden

Dow Suffers Longest Weekly Losing Streak Of Year As Fed Loses Control Of Short-End

The Fed’s tweak to the funding markets failed to take back control…

As The Fed’s IOER cut left EFF still 6bps rich…

And so, a ‘murder’ of Fed Speakers were unleashed today and they managed to inch the market’s rate expectations in a dovish direction, but on the week, thanks to Powell’s “transitory”

The key message was obvious:

Chinese markets remain on holiday (and will be through Tuesday) but Chinese stocks remain the leader in 2019…

 

European stocks were very mixed with Germany’s DAX leading and UK and Spain lagging…

 

An epic short-squeeze ramped US equities back into (or near) the green for the week…

 

With Small Caps and Trannies leading… Nasdaq and S&P were levitated almost perfectly into the green for the week…

Nasdaq up 6 week sin a row and 16 of the 18 weeks in 2019.

Nasdaq soared today on the back of Berkshire buying some Amazon shares… (FANG stocks managed to get back to breakeven on the week only though after the GOOGL drop)

 

For The Dow, this is the same panic-bid we saw last Friday… Dow down for 2nd week in a row – first time since Dec 2018

 

VIX has now risen for 3 straight weeks (albeit marginally) – the longest streak since Oct 2018

 

Treasuries were bid today, shifting the long-end yields back to unchanged on the week, while the short-end remain notably higher in yield…

 

The yield curve flattened dramatically on the week (after a brief spike initially on the Fed statement)…This was the biggest weekly flattening in 5 months

 

Roller-coaster week for the dollar surging back to unchanged on the week after The Fed, then tumbling today after payrolls…

 

Yuan ended the week unchanged (after a big bounce back today) even with China closed…

 

The peso surged today ahead of Cinco de Mayo…

 

Big week for Cryptos with Bitcoin and Bitcoin Cash leading…

 

As Bitcoin tests $5800…

 

Strong bounce back day for commodities today was unable to get them green on the week but gold outperformed as copper lagged…

 

Gold bounced off its 200DMA once again…

 

WTI fell for the 2nd week in a row – the biggest 2-week drop since 2018…hugging the 200DMA…

 

Finally, as BofA notes, ISM’s collapse (which everyone seemed to ignore this week) is a major warning signal for US EPS growth…

Which is already lagging the market’s enthusiasm for free money…

Global money supply better start picking up again soon…

via ZeroHedge News http://bit.ly/2H0pr11 Tyler Durden

Neo-Nazi Arrested For Threatening To Kill Don Jr., Jared Kushner & Ben Shapiro

A raging anti-semite who was stockpiling tactical weaponry and Nazi paraphernalia has been arrested for sending death threats to Jared Kushner, Donald Trump Jr. and Ben Shapiro, TMZ reports.

Barely a week after a deranged 19-year-old shot up a synagogue in Poway, Calif., claiming the Christchurch Shooter as his inspiration, Chase Bliss Colasurdo was arrested Wednesday in Washington State after the FBI and Secret Service uncovered multiple death threats against Trump’s family members.

Kushner

Authorities were acting on a tip filed in March alerting them to Colasurdo’s threatening social media posts, where he apparently targeted Kushner and Trump Jr. by name. In case his intentions hadn’t been made clear enough, he also sent emails to 5 different media outlets warning of his plans: “I’m going to personally Execute [Kushner] for his countless treasonous crimes,” according to TMZ.

Colasurdo then proceeded to taunt law enforcement, posting a photo on Instagram of himself holding a gun with the caption: “I made a death threat against [Kushner] yesterday and I have not been arrested yet.”

As if that weren’t enough, Colasurdo posted a photo of Donald Trump Jr. with the caption: “I would just like to let the secret service know that I am going to Execute this fa***t.”

When FBI and Secret Service agents visited Colasurdo at his home in March, he claimed he’d been hacked, but also told agents that he had been diagnosed with mental health issues.

Still, his online death rants continued. The very next week, Colasurdo posted a photo of himself holding a handgun with the caption: “It’s Time To Start Bombing Synagogues,” and later referenced the Poway bombing.

In April, the FBI discovered that Colasurdo had been loading up on ammunition, weapons and kevlar armor, which set off alarm bells and led to a raid that resulted n Colasurdo’s arrest. During the raid, agents discovered an expansive arsenal, Nazi flags and Hitler memorabilia.

It was later reported that Colasurdo also made death threats against conservative writer Ben Shapiro and his family.

via ZeroHedge News http://bit.ly/2J03LEG Tyler Durden