Most Americans Don’t Trust Cops Much, a New Gallup Poll Reveals

Indianapolis-cops-beating-protester-cropped

Most Americans do not trust cops much, according to new poll results that put public confidence in the police at a record low level. From 2019 to 2020, Gallup reports, “confidence in the police fell five points to 48%, marking the first time in the 27-year trend that this reading is below the majority level.”

Since Gallup began asking the question in 1993, the share of American adults who said they had “a great deal” or “a lot” of confidence in the police has ranged from 52 percent to 64 percent. In the latest poll, which was conducted in late June and early July, that number fell to 48 percent. Meanwhile, 33 percent of respondents said they had “some” confidence in the police, while 17 percent said “very little” and 2 percent said “none.”

The decline in confidence, which follows nationwide protests triggered by George Floyd’s death at the hands of Minneapolis police on May 25, is especially striking when compared to the trends for other institutions. From 2019 to 2020, confidence in the medical system and the public schools rose by 15 and 12 points, respectively. Confidence in small businesses and organized religion also rose substantially (by seven and six points, respectively), and even Congress rated slightly better this year than last (rising from 11 percent to 13 percent confidence).

As in prior years, there are stark partisan and racial gaps in attitudes toward the police. “Confidence in the police rose seven points among Republicans to 82% and dropped six points among Democrats to 28%,” Gallup notes. And while 56 percent of white adults had “a great deal” or “a lot” of confidence in police, only 19 percent of black adults did.

The latter result may seem surprising in light of another Gallup finding: More than four-fifths of black respondents said they did not want police to spend less time in their neighborhoods. Sixty-one percent said the current police presence should be maintained, while 20 percent said it should be increased. As my colleague Nick Gillespie suggests, those findings cast doubt on the popularity of calls to “defund” or abolish police departments. But there is nothing inconsistent in wanting police to do their jobs without abusing the citizens they are supposed to serve.

Among adults generally, confidence in the police stood at 52 percent in 1993 and peaked at 64 percent in 2004. There is little reason to think police abuse has gotten worse since then, but publicity about it certainly has increased. The ubiquity of cameras in the pockets of cellphone owners, on storefronts, on the dashboards of squad cars, and on the bodies of police officers has a lot to do with that. The public understanding of controversial police encounters, which once depended on conflicting accounts from cops and people who claimed to have been victimized by them (sometimes coupled with possibly unreliable bystander testimony), is nowadays routinely informed by compelling video footage.

Floyd’s death never would have gotten the attention it did without cellphone video that clearly showed Derek Chauvin kneeling on the neck of a handcuffed, prone arrestee whose resistance at the time was limited to complaining that he could not breathe and begging for his life. And in the aftermath of that horrifying incident, when police officers across the country seemed intent on validating public suspicion by using excessive force against peaceful demonstrators protesting such abuse, video evidence was again crucial in documenting their misconduct.

This week, for example, two Indianapolis officers were charged with assaulting two women at a protest on May 31. A protester alleged that the officers, Jonathan Horlock and Nathaniel Schauwecker, attacked her with batons and pepper balls without provocation. Her companion, a photographer, said one of the officers shoved her to the pavement when she objected to the protester’s treatment. While the officers claimed they used appropriate force while arresting the women for violating a local curfew, video of the incident told a different story. Now Horlock and Schauwecker both face battery charges, while Horlock is also charged with perjury and obstruction of justice because he lied about the encounter, falsely claiming that the protester had hit a police sergeant in the chest.

The response from the local police union was notably muted. “We look forward to a full, fair and public airing of all of the facts and circumstances surrounding the events in question,” the Indianapolis Fraternal Order of Police said yesterday. “While officers prefer to avoid any use of force, we fully recognize the requirement to safely and swiftly effectuate the lawful arrest of individuals when called upon to do so, especially during tense and rapidly evolving events. Therefore, we welcome a robust review of these allegations and have confidence in the process.”

The restrained tone of that statement contrasts sharply with the strident, diehard defenses that we frequently hear from police unions. That reflex, which elevates the personal interests of particular cops about the broader interests of the profession, is one of the things that will have to change if police want to rehabilitate their reputation and restore public confidence in their work.

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The ‘Insect Apocalypse’ Has Been Canceled

insectspalex66dreamstime

“The Insect Apocalypse Is Here,” declared the stark New York Times headline in November 2018. The article focused on a 2017 German study that said the mid-summer levels of “flying insect biomass” in 63 nature preserves had declined by 76 percent over 27 years. In a 2019 study in Biological Conservation, researchers warned that we might see “the extinction of 40% of the world’s insect species over the next few decades.”

Big if true.

Now a new study in Nature Ecology & Evolution offers some happier news: In the United States at least, the abundance and insect biodiversity trends are “generally indistinguishable from zero.” In other words, there is no detectable insect armageddon here. “This lack of overall increase or decline was consistent across arthropod feeding groups and was similar for heavily disturbed versus relatively natural sites,” note the researchers. “The apparent robustness of US arthropod populations is reassuring.”

The researchers came to their conclusions by parsing the data collected through the U.S. National Science Foundation’s network of Long-Term Ecological Research sites. This network, established in 1980, comprises 25 monitoring locations across each of the country’s major ecoregions.

The press release accompanying the study notes that the team looked into several factors that might have had a noticeable effect on insect population levels, including insecticides, light pollution, and built environments.

“No matter what factor we looked at, nothing could explain the trends in a satisfactory way,” said University of Georgia entomologist Michael Crossley. “We just took all the data and, when you look, there are as many things going up as going down. Even when we broke it out in functional groups there wasn’t really a clear story like predators are decreasing or herbivores are increasing.”

In an April 2020 commentary in Science, two British researchers urged their colleagues against crisis-mongering through overinterpreting tentative results from very preliminary insect abundance studies.

“The temptation to draw overly simple and sensational conclusions is understandable, because it captures the attention of the public and can potentially catalyze much needed action in policy development and research arenas,” they warned. “However, fear-based messages often backfire. This strategy has the grave risk of undermining trust in science and can lead to denialism, fatigue, and apathy. Embracing nuance allows us to balance accurate reporting of worrying losses with hopeful examples of wins. Hope is a more powerful engine of change than fear.”

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Mike Pence Comes Out Against Marijuana Banking Bill That Would Actually Save Taxpayers Money

mikepence_1161x653

Vice President Mike Pence took to Lou Dobbs Tonight on Fox News earlier this week to gripe that Democrats were attempting to include legislation related to marijuana and banking in the latest coronavirus relief bill.

“I heard the other day the bill mentions marijuana more than it mentions jobs,” Pence said to Dobbs. “The American people don’t want some pork-barrel bill coming out of the Congress when we’ve got real needs for working-class families.”

Maybe he’s trying to remind everybody that Joe Biden isn’t the only vice president who’s still resisting marijuana legalization?

There are two ironies here. First, the bill Pence is complaining about makes it possible for cannabis businesses to safely engage in banking in states where cannabis is legal, which helps those “working-class families” who rely on the cannabis industry. Second, the bill he’s referring to will actually save taxpayers money, unlike much of the rest of this relief legislation.

The “Secure and Fair Enforcement Act of 2019,” a.k.a. the “SAFE Banking Act,” would allow legally operating cannabis businesses to have the same legal access to banks, loans, and deposit protections as other legal businesses. Because the sale and possession of marijuana are still forbidden by federal law, banks are reluctant to have any dealings with dispensaries and growers, even when they’re legally operating within their home states.

This is not a pork-barrel bill. While the marijuana industry would love to have access to federal coronavirus relief, the SAFE Banking Act would allow them only to use banking services the way other businesses do. According to the Congressional Budget Office, passing the bill would actually reduce the federal deficit by $2-3 million dollars a year. This is small potatoes in the grand scheme of things (the federal deficit for 2020 stands so far at $2.8 trillion), but as Reason Foundation Policy Analyst Jacob James Rich observes, legal banking creates a framework for the expansion of the cannabis industry and also improves bookkeeping and revenue and income reporting. Both of those actions ultimately lead to more commerce and more revenue for the government:

Issues of underreported marijuana income are endemic across all municipalities and states that have regulated cannabis. This should come as no surprise since cash-based businesses tend to underreport their incomes by 50% in general, which might be even larger in the marijuana industry as suppliers transition from illegal to regulated markets. Additionally, employees of cash-based businesses tend to report less than 20% of their incomes to the Internal Revenue Service (IRS). The best way to address these issues would be to allow marijuana businesses access to banking services, which provide much better records for accounting purposes.

The country is in a recession and experienced an unprecedented 32.9% drop in gross domestic product (GDP) for the second quarter of 2020—due largely to the coronavirus pandemic and the economic lockdowns many state and local governments implemented. While seeking to grapple with the pandemic, recession—and eventually needing to confront the nation’s unsustainable spending, both conservative and liberal policymakers in Congress should consider provisions, like marijuana banking law reforms, that could help the economy, state and local governments, small businesses, and be a net positive to the federal budget.

Pence and Sen. Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R–Ky.) are using the SAFE Banking Act as a cudgel to accuse House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D–Calif.) of including “non-germane” content in coronavirus relief legislation. Back in May, when the House previously attempted to add the SAFE Banking Act to coronavirus legislation, McConnell took the same approach as Pence is taking now, mocking the bill for referencing “cannabis” more than it references “jobs,” which is a cheap and lazy way to score points. The number of times a bill uses a particular word is not a good indicator of what the bill does.

The SAFE Banking Act passed the House last September, 321-103. Only one Democrat (Terri Sewell of Alabama) voted against it, while 90 Republicans supported it. Thanks to McConnell, it hasn’t been taken up by the Senate, despite having the support of fellow Republican and Kentuckian Sen. Rand Paul, who tweeted in support of it just yesterday.

While there are myriad issues with the federal government’s coronavirus relief efforts, allowing state-legal cannabis businesses to use banking services is not one of them.

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The ‘Insect Apocalypse’ Has Been Canceled

insectspalex66dreamstime

“The Insect Apocalypse Is Here,” declared the stark New York Times headline in November 2018. The article focused on a 2017 German study that said the mid-summer levels of “flying insect biomass” in 63 nature preserves had declined by 76 percent over 27 years. In a 2019 study in Biological Conservation, researchers warned that we might see “the extinction of 40% of the world’s insect species over the next few decades.”

Big if true.

Now a new study in Nature Ecology & Evolution offers some happier news: In the United States at least, the abundance and insect biodiversity trends are “generally indistinguishable from zero.” In other words, there is no detectable insect armageddon here. “This lack of overall increase or decline was consistent across arthropod feeding groups and was similar for heavily disturbed versus relatively natural sites,” note the researchers. “The apparent robustness of US arthropod populations is reassuring.”

The researchers came to their conclusions by parsing the data collected through the U.S. National Science Foundation’s network of Long-Term Ecological Research sites. This network, established in 1980, comprises 25 monitoring locations across each of the country’s major ecoregions.

The press release accompanying the study notes that the team looked into several factors that might have had a noticeable effect on insect population levels, including insecticides, light pollution, and built environments.

“No matter what factor we looked at, nothing could explain the trends in a satisfactory way,” said University of Georgia entomologist Michael Crossley. “We just took all the data and, when you look, there are as many things going up as going down. Even when we broke it out in functional groups there wasn’t really a clear story like predators are decreasing or herbivores are increasing.”

In an April 2020 commentary in Science, two British researchers urged their colleagues against crisis-mongering through overinterpreting tentative results from very preliminary insect abundance studies.

“The temptation to draw overly simple and sensational conclusions is understandable, because it captures the attention of the public and can potentially catalyze much needed action in policy development and research arenas,” they warned. “However, fear-based messages often backfire. This strategy has the grave risk of undermining trust in science and can lead to denialism, fatigue, and apathy. Embracing nuance allows us to balance accurate reporting of worrying losses with hopeful examples of wins. Hope is a more powerful engine of change than fear.”

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Mike Pence Comes Out Against Marijuana Banking Bill That Would Actually Save Taxpayers Money

mikepence_1161x653

Vice President Mike Pence took to Lou Dobbs Tonight on Fox News earlier this week to gripe that Democrats were attempting to include legislation related to marijuana and banking in the latest coronavirus relief bill.

“I heard the other day the bill mentions marijuana more than it mentions jobs,” Pence said to Dobbs. “The American people don’t want some pork-barrel bill coming out of the Congress when we’ve got real needs for working-class families.”

Maybe he’s trying to remind everybody that Joe Biden isn’t the only vice president who’s still resisting marijuana legalization?

There are two ironies here. First, the bill Pence is complaining about makes it possible for cannabis businesses to safely engage in banking in states where cannabis is legal, which helps those “working-class families” who rely on the cannabis industry. Second, the bill he’s referring to will actually save taxpayers money, unlike much of the rest of this relief legislation.

The “Secure and Fair Enforcement Act of 2019,” a.k.a. the “SAFE Banking Act,” would allow legally operating cannabis businesses to have the same legal access to banks, loans, and deposit protections as other legal businesses. Because the sale and possession of marijuana are still forbidden by federal law, banks are reluctant to have any dealings with dispensaries and growers, even when they’re legally operating within their home states.

This is not a pork-barrel bill. While the marijuana industry would love to have access to federal coronavirus relief, the SAFE Banking Act would allow them only to use banking services the way other businesses do. According to the Congressional Budget Office, passing the bill would actually reduce the federal deficit by $2-3 million dollars a year. This is small potatoes in the grand scheme of things (the federal deficit for 2020 stands so far at $2.8 trillion), but as Reason Foundation Policy Analyst Jacob James Rich observes, legal banking creates a framework for the expansion of the cannabis industry and also improves bookkeeping and revenue and income reporting. Both of those actions ultimately lead to more commerce and more revenue for the government:

Issues of underreported marijuana income are endemic across all municipalities and states that have regulated cannabis. This should come as no surprise since cash-based businesses tend to underreport their incomes by 50% in general, which might be even larger in the marijuana industry as suppliers transition from illegal to regulated markets. Additionally, employees of cash-based businesses tend to report less than 20% of their incomes to the Internal Revenue Service (IRS). The best way to address these issues would be to allow marijuana businesses access to banking services, which provide much better records for accounting purposes.

The country is in a recession and experienced an unprecedented 32.9% drop in gross domestic product (GDP) for the second quarter of 2020—due largely to the coronavirus pandemic and the economic lockdowns many state and local governments implemented. While seeking to grapple with the pandemic, recession—and eventually needing to confront the nation’s unsustainable spending, both conservative and liberal policymakers in Congress should consider provisions, like marijuana banking law reforms, that could help the economy, state and local governments, small businesses, and be a net positive to the federal budget.

Pence and Sen. Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R–Ky.) are using the SAFE Banking Act as a cudgel to accuse House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D–Calif.) of including “non-germane” content in coronavirus relief legislation. Back in May, when the House previously attempted to add the SAFE Banking Act to coronavirus legislation, McConnell took the same approach as Pence is taking now, mocking the bill for referencing “cannabis” more than it references “jobs,” which is a cheap and lazy way to score points. The number of times a bill uses a particular word is not a good indicator of what the bill does.

The SAFE Banking Act passed the House last September, 321-103. Only one Democrat (Terri Sewell of Alabama) voted against it, while 90 Republicans supported it. Thanks to McConnell, it hasn’t been taken up by the Senate, despite having the support of fellow Republican and Kentuckian Sen. Rand Paul, who tweeted in support of it just yesterday.

While there are myriad issues with the federal government’s coronavirus relief efforts, allowing state-legal cannabis businesses to use banking services is not one of them.

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Three Questions To Ask Before You Declare The Gold Bull Dead

Three Questions To Ask Before You Declare The Gold Bull Dead

Tyler Durden

Thu, 08/13/2020 – 13:30

Authored by Michael Maharrey via SchiffGold.com,

Gold and silver got had an abysmal day on Tuesday (Aug. 11). The price of gold dropped more than 5%, falling far below the $2,000 level. It was the worst single-day rout in seven years.

[ZH: Gold is still tracking 10Y real rates almost perfectly]

Things stabilized somewhat on Wednesday with apparent support above $1,900, but the big selloff fueled speculation that the gold bull run could be over.

Here are three questions you should ask yourself before declaring the gold bull dead.

1. Do you believe the economy can quickly recover? Let’s say they develop a coronavirus vaccine tomorrow. Do you believe that the economy can just spring back to life?

2. Do you believe that the federal government will stop borrowing and spending billions of dollars every single month anytime soon? Keep in mind, the federal government was borrowing and spending billions of dollars a month before the pandemic.

3. Do you think the Federal Reserve is going to stop printing money, raise interest rates and shrink its balance sheet in the near future? Likewise consider that the Fed was slashing rates, printing money and growing its balance sheet before the coronavirus reared its ugly head.

If you answer no to any of these questions, pronouncing last rights on the gold bull market might be premature.

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Treasuries Tumble After 30Y Auction Bombs

Treasuries Tumble After 30Y Auction Bombs

Tyler Durden

Thu, 08/13/2020 – 13:18

After the stellar, record-sized 3Y and 10Y auctions earlier this week, moments ago the Treasury concluded refunding week with another record auction, this time in the form of an all time high $26BN in 30Y bonds.

However besides the record auction size, today’s 30Y sale had nothing in common with this week’s prior coupon auctions both of which passed with flying colors, as this was without doubt the ugliest 30Y auction in years.

Pricing at a high yield of 1.406%, this was a 2.4bps tail to the 1.382 When Issued – the biggest tail since last July – and well above last month’s 1.357%.

The other metrics were far worse, however, with the Bid to Cover plunging from 2.50 to just 2.136, the lowest since July 2019 and one of the lowest on record.

The internals were even uglier, with Indirects plunging from 72% to 59.8%, the lowest since November and well below the 66.2% six-auction average. And with Directs taking down just 11.9%, it left Dealers holding a whopping 28.3% of the sale, the most since July 2019. 

Overall, this was a very ugly auction, and due to the record auction size, or due to today’s massive Apple concurrent issuance or just because of rising reflation fears, whatever the reason the curve quickly repriced sharply wider, and as the 30Y yield spiked to a level from early July, the 10Y yield has pushed above 0.70%.

Curiously, the unexpectedly ugly auction also sparked a bit of a trapdoor effect in stocks which also dipped suggesting that even a glimmer of validated reflation creeping into bond auctions will be enough to shock both the stock and bond market.

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In Transformational Shift, The BOJ Gives Up On Negative Rates As It Now Pays Banks To Lend

In Transformational Shift, The BOJ Gives Up On Negative Rates As It Now Pays Banks To Lend

Tyler Durden

Thu, 08/13/2020 – 13:10

After more than half a decade of disastrous monetary policy which not only failed to stimulate inflation, boost exports or crush the yen, but has brought Japan’s banks to near disaster, the Bank of Japan has come up with an “ingenious” new plan to flood the system with liquidity: it is paying banks hundreds of millions of dollars in bonuses to boost lending, a move analysts say is aimed at easing the side-effects of its negative interest rate policy.

And while record bank lending in recent months suggests the BOJ’s plan is working – a very rare success of late in its losing battle to revive the economy – according to Reuters it is also a sign that policymakers’ focus is now more on supporting banks, rather than keeping rates low.

To be sure, the literal wall of money printed by the BOJ in recent years has kept a lid on bankruptcies and job losses as the economy tips into a deep recession, although it has also meant that banks can not survive without continued life support from the central bank. And the prolonged battle with COVID-19 has only added strains on regional banks.

Needless to say, the local bankers are delighted with this latest indirect transfer from taxpayers to the top 1%: “This is one of the most effective policy moves the BOJ has made in recent years,” said Takehiro Noguchi, senior economist at Mizuho Research who personally stands to benefit from this “effective policy move.”

We found his second comment far more illuminating: “The BOJ will likely continue to take steps to alleviate the side-effect of its monetary easing… The BOJ thinks negative interest rates is something it should not have done.”

Oh, so conducting catastrophic experiments with monetary policy that crush savers and the middle class, while making the rich wealthy beyond their wildest dreams is something that “should not have been done”? We agree, and if only the BOJ had listened to us when we said all of this before it launched its idiotic NIRP policy, it would have saved Japan’s population years of misery and pain. Of course, central bankers always “know best”… and then the system collapses.

In any case, it’s too late now to fix anything without a complete systemic reset (and crash), and so the BOJ is forced to engage in increasingly desperate measures to keep it all together. That’s why in March the BOJ cobbled together special “coronavirus relief” operations to help keep cash-strapped companies afloat. Under the scheme, the BOJ lends cash to banks against their lending to the private sector, such as loans and bonds, as collateral.

The operation started off quietly but got a major boost after the BOJ decided in April to add a sweetener by giving banks a bonus of 10 basis points (bps) or 0.1% per year, for using the scheme, a bonanza when 10-year government bonds yield 0.04%.

Yes, if this sounds like a direct money transfer from the central bank to the commercial banks, it’s because that’s exactly what it is. It is also completely illegal in any other context than the one of a “covid emergency.”

Naturally, banks rushed to the plan, gobbling up 27 trillion yen ($250 billion) through the channel by July. And since that is roughly as much as the amount of banks’ deposits on which the BOJ imposes negative interest rates, it appears that banks were quick to use the BOJ’s latest helicopter money scheme to offset the punitive effects of NIRP.

Recall that in 2016 the BOJ went negative in an attempt to weaken the yen and lower corporate borrowing costs (it achieved neither). However, to avoid damaging banks even more, it imposed a minus 0.1% rate on only a small portion of banks’ deposits, amid concerns the policy could squeeze lenders’ margins and possibly reduce the flow of credit to the economy.

Meanwhile, as Reuters notes, the BOJ has paid 0.1% interest to banks on a total of about 208 trillion yen deposits, while the remainder carries zero interest. The complicated, three-tier interest rate system was intended to keep the benchmark interbank lending rate below zero percent while limiting the negative interest banks have to pay to the BOJ.

Of course, as analysts were quick to point out, paying additional interest on the new scheme is undermining the case for negative rates even further, thereby obviating the entire disaster that has been NIRP.

“In the grand scheme of things, we could see this as a policy normalisation as well as enhancing support for banks,” said Katsutoshi Inadome, senior strategist at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities.

As a result of the BOJ’s move to increase interest payments to banks, the benchmark interbank overnight interest rate has also edged up, staying mostly above minus 0.05%.

The good news is that for now, the BOJ’s latest helicopter money plan appears to be working. Data this week showed banks’ lending rose by a record 6.3% in July from a year earlier to 572.7 trillion yen ($5.36 trillion). That represents an increase of about 26 trillion yen since March, suggesting the BOJ has effectively back-financed nearly all of the bank lending growth since then.

It also means that while the operation was supposed to be temporary, many now expect that the BOJ will gradually make it permanent as it is extended it beyond its scheduled expiry next March.

More importantly, while backtracking on negative rates could – and will – erode the BOJ’s credibility, frankly it’s not like the BOJ had much to begin with as all that now matters is how much the government will order the BOJ to print under the auspices of helicopter money.

Meanwhile, with the BOJ having effectively nullified NIRP, there is confusion as to how monetary policy will look in the future when Kuroda has to ease further, having admitted that NIRP is a failure and rapidly running out of debt and ETFs to monetize.

“Should the BOJ ever need to cut interest rates further to ease its policy, the central bank will combine it with more bonus schemes like this, to the extent that the net effect becomes unclear,” said Izuru Kato, chief economist Totan Research.

Kato is right, and the final bonus scheme will be the BOJ finding an “excuse” to give money directly to Japan’s population, after which it is game over for fiat as first the yen then every other “developed” currency will implode.

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