NY Riot Cops Disband ‘Occupy City Hall’ Encampment In Pre-Dawn Raid Tyler Durden
Wed, 07/22/2020 – 10:16
New York police officers in riot gear evicted approximately 70 protesters out of the “Occupy City Hall” protest encampment in a Wednesday pre-dawn raid, according to the New York Times.
After a 10 minute warning, officers advanced on the mix of protesters and homeless people at approximately 3:40 a.m., “moving in lock-step behind a wall of plastic shields,” according to the report. Seven arrests were made after minor clashes between camp residents and the police, according to the Times, citing officials.
Police has cleared the Occupy City Hall area, reportedly 3 people arrested.
📹 By Daniel Valls (FNTV https://t.co/MKhP0Go9IL)
— @SCOOTERCASTER (FNTV) (@ScooterCasterNY) July 22, 2020
As the police moved through the camp, which since June has sprawled across a park and plaza to the east of City Hall, officers took down a series of tarps and makeshift tents that demonstrators and several homeless people had been living in and tossed them into city garbage trucks. –NYT
One man was reportedly suffered a medical emergency and was taken away in an ambulance, while police say one officer was injured when he was struck by a brick.
The operation was approved by Mayor Bill de Blasio, which ABC7 reports “has been long planned by the NYPD.”
NYPD riot police have driven City Hall occupants, at least half of whom have no other housing options. Tents and signs have been trashed. pic.twitter.com/BUkXIRfQOd
— NYC Protest Updates 2020 (@protest_nyc) July 22, 2020
After the City Council approved the reform, which Mayor Bill de Blasio signed into law last week, organizers and many protesters left, leaving the encampment to consist of a large number of homeless people.
The de Blasio administration has long stated homeless encampments are no longer permitted, and has been closely monitoring the encampment to determine if it still exists as some form of a protest. –ABC7
And now a few arrests among protestors who didn’t clear, one taking a swing at an officer pic.twitter.com/HM9kyas8mx
Existing Home Sales Rebound By Most Ever In June (But Miss Expectations Despite Record Low Rates) Tyler Durden
Wed, 07/22/2020 – 10:08
Existing home sales were expected to play a big catch up in June after significantly disappointing in May as pending- and new-home-sales rebounded strongly from the March/April plunge during lockdowns. Existing Sales did rebound strongly – up 20.7% MoM – a record MoM rise but that was less than expectactions of a 21.4% rise and left sales down 11.3% YoY…
Source: Bloomberg
This pushed Existing Home Sales SAAR back up to 4.72mm…
Source: Bloomberg
The median existing-home price for all housing types in June was $295,300, up 3.5% from June 2019 ($285,400), as prices rose in every region. June’s national price increase marks 100 straight months of year-over-year gains.
“The sales recovery is strong, as buyers were eager to purchase homes and properties that they had been eyeing during the shutdown,” said Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist.
“This revitalization looks to be sustainable for many months ahead as long as mortgage rates remain low and job gains continue.”
Sales for June increased in every region. Median home prices grew in each of the four major regions from one year ago.
Sales in the Northeast rose 4.3%, recording an annual rate of 490,000, a 27.9% decrease from a year ago. The median price in the Northeast was $332,900, up 3.6% from June 2019.
Midwest sales increased 11.1% to an annual rate of 1,100,000, down 13.4% from a year ago. The median price in the Midwest was $236,900, a 3.2% increase from June 2019.
South sales jumped 26.0% to an annual rate of 2.18 million, down 4.0% from the same time one year ago. The median price in the South was $258,500, a 4.4% increase from a year ago.
West sales ascended 31.9% to an annual rate of 950,000 in June, a 13.6% decline from a year ago. The median price in the West was $432,600, up 5.4% from June 2019.
But, despite record low mortgage rates, buying has not coming back as much as expected…
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, Yun concludes that significantly low inventory was a problem even before the pandemic and says such circumstances can lead to inflated costs.
“Home prices rose during the lockdown and could rise even further due to heavy buyer competition and a significant shortage of supply.”
Total housing inventory at the end of June totaled 1.57 million units, up 1.3% from May, but still down 18.2% from one year ago (1.92 million). Unsold inventory sits at a 4.0-month supply at the current sales pace, down from both 4.8 months in May and from the 4.3-month figure recorded in June 2019.
via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/3fM0ntL Tyler Durden
Wirecard CEO Re-Arrested After Being Freed On Bail Tyler Durden
Wed, 07/22/2020 – 10:00
Shortly after Wirecard’s former COO reportedly surfaced in Russia, where he has fled to avoid prosecution over the bankruptcy of Wirecard after the company reportedly collapsed following the exposure of a massive $2 billion accounting fraud, prosecutors in Munich have issued new arrest warrants for three former Wirecard executives – including former CEO Markus Braun – over findings that Braun and the others knew about the fraudulent activity as far back as 2015.
Braun was re-arrested during his weekly check-in with authorities.
The former head of the Wirecard subsidiary Cardsystems Middle East, which was blamed for playing a key role in the fraud, remains in custody in Dubai. The new allegations determined that all the executives were involved with a conscious decision back in 2015 to “inflate” Wirecard’s balance sheet by booking fraudulent revenue to make the company more attractive to lenders.
The three conspired to defraud loan providers out of about 3.2 billion euros ($3.7 billion), Munich prosecutors said Wednesday.
Of Wirecard’s 45 subsidiaries, only 3 were profitable.
The warrants are for crimes ranging from fraud to market manipulation. The other two executives were identified by AFP as two Wirecard board members.
via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2CFtf8L Tyler Durden
Ackman Is Shorting Junk, Long Stocks, And “Really Blames” CNBC For Scaring The Market Tyler Durden
Wed, 07/22/2020 – 09:55
Update (1005ET): The Pershing Square Tontine has started trading, and shares are already going for more than the offering price.
PERSHING SQUARE TONTINE UNITS OPEN AT $21.10 ON NYSE VS IPO PRICE OF $20/UNIT
* * *
Bill Ackman was already one of the most recognizable figures in the hedge fund industry when he sat for his now-infamous interview back in March where he declared that “hell is coming”, a 15-second clip that was played in a seemingly endless loop as markets embarked on a selloff with little precedent in terms of its sheer speed and brutality. When it was revealed a couple of months later that Ackman had made billions of dollars betting on the rebound, he was widely lampooned as treacherous opportunist, even as he insisted that he had unwound his fund’s hedges and short positions just days before.
Since then, Ackman has managed to raise more than $4 billion via the public markets, leveraging his name recognition to attract mountains of interest for an unusual plan: Ackman’s new publicly traded fund – a “Special Purpose Acquisition Company” – will use the money raised during its offering to buy a large stake in a private company,as we explained last week.
Ackman’s “SPAC”, which he has named the “Pershing Square Tontine Holdings”, will raise billions, then combine that money with more funds from Pershing Square (Ackman’s asset-management firm) and other possible investors to invest in a “unicorn” that Ackman finds to be undervalued. The new vehicle is set to begin trading on Wednesday, which marked the occasion for Ackman to appear on CNBC for his first interview on the channel since his March rant.
During Wednesday’s remote video interview, Ackman cut right to the chase, explaining why the “SPAC” wrapper offers such a great advantage. The “cash shell allows someone to instantaneously…be in a position to put their money to work,” Ackman said, emphasizing that speed is so critical in such a fast-moving market. This flexibility will enable the SPAC to “make an advantaged deal for our shareholders,” Ackman said. Shares of the SPAC are being sold at $20 apiece.
The current IPO process, Ackman argued, is too cumbersome for many investors. Companies must file a prospectus, “then 6 weeks later, if they’re luck, file a revised prospectus where investors can see 3 years of financial data and all kinds of commentary,” Ackman said. “If you look at what happened with WeWork…ultimately, this destroyed the company.”
While WeWork’s absurd prospectus definitely wasn’t well-received by the market, we’re not sure that WeWork is the best example here, considering that it has proven to be a disastrous investment for its biggest backer, SoftBank, which is now embroiled in a lawsuit with WeWork after reneging on a piece of its rescue deal.
But Ackman argued that companies heading for an IPO are often placed in the unenviable position of not being allowed to respond to criticism from the press: “You’re under that much of a microscope…and you’re not allowed to comment to the media because according to SEC rules, you can’t.”
Ackman’s discussion of the ‘tontine’ was cut short, however, when Andrew Ross Sorkin and the rest of the Squawk Box crew cheekily replayed the “hell is coming” clip from Ackman’s previous interview with CNBC. Ackman was nonplussed by this, and responded by attacking CNBC for taking his words out of context.
The hedge fund investor claimed that what he really said boiled down to “If we do nothing…THEN hell is coming,” Ackman said, before launching into a tirade slamming CNBC over its ‘sensationalist’ approach. “I really blame CNBC…they took a 15-second clip of my interview and ran with it because it was good television…I said ‘look we’re at a fork in the road…and one path could lead to hell if we don’t shut down the country.'”
What’s more, Ackman said, his bets against US stocks were unwound before the March interview. By the time he spoke, Ackman was building his long position, which eventually netted a massive payout,.
“Some people actually listened to what I said and bought Hilton, and bought Macy’s,” Ackman insisted.
When host Joe Kernan taunted Ackman by noting that the situation in the market “doesn’t look like hell to me”, Ackman deftly replied that the S&P 500’s performance doesn’t reflect the hard times plaguing the US economy.
“The market is a reflection of…the most well-capitalized companies in the world…but think about restaurants, think about gyms, think about bars…if you use the S&P 500 as a gauge of how everyone is doing…you’re leaving out a large segment of the economy.”
“I hate to get up in your face about this,” he added.
But if Ackman didn’t cause it, then why did the market bottom after Ackman’s remarks? Perhaps the timing of the US shutdowns might have a clue.
“Why did the market bottom? Because California shut down one day after my interview. Because New York shut down two days after the interview. The market was down 6.5% before I even went on TV that day.”
Is Ackman still feeling ‘bullish’? Yes, he insisted.
“We are long-term bullish on America; We are long-term bullish on the markets. But I would say I’m cautious on markets over the next period of time. We have today a short position in a high-yield index. We are bearish on highly-levered companies.”
“The highly-levered businesses will struggle because it will take time for the economy to reopen,” Ackman said. “I don’t think the Fed is going to bail out companies with too much debt.”
“We are long-term bullish on America,” Pershing Square’s Bill Ackman says, adding “but I would say I am cautious on markets over the next period of time.” https://t.co/ALk7PV8ee8pic.twitter.com/6aAN2r5WVs
Though he added that things won’t start to meaningfully improve until the second half of next year.
“My expectation is things don’t get meaningfully better until the second half of 2021.” Pershing Square’s Bill Ackman says the U.S. is having a “sloppy reopening” of the country. https://t.co/ALk7PV8ee8pic.twitter.com/OPUyDrDAaM
To be sure, he has purchased some hedges, like betting against high yield bonds. Being short high-yield credit is “a good hedge” Ackman said because “the Fed isn’t going to bail out companies that have too much debt.”
Ackman is short HY?
Time for Icahn (and the Fed) to buy every junk bond in existence
“They had to build a special runway just to get him down.”
It seems like every day there is another high street shock – a well-known retail brand giving up the struggle. The coronavirus has sped up a Darwinian shift towards online shopping. The rot has spread to owners of shopping malls and high-street property. Yet, we aren’t seeing a similar capitulations across other sectors impacted by the virus – particularly transport and travel. Markets are pricing for these sectors to stage pretty much a full recovery.
In normal markets what makes companies tick is cash flow – if a company doesn’t generate cash and has bills to pay… that’s a problem. Not any more.. The rules have changed… Liquidity is so plentiful there is an assumption companies can simply keep borrowing to see themselves out the Virus crisis. Debt apparently does not matter. Liquidity has never been so easy due to QE Infinity, Negative Interest Rates and multiple Virus Bailouts.
Right or wrongly, it’s never been easier for Zombie companies to survive on the simple assumption they can keep borrowing. It’s a circular argument. As long as interest rates remain low, then they can simply leverage up. If they can borrow, they can borrow more. And, that’s quite extraordinary bearing in mind how many highly leveraged companies are generating zero cash flow due to the pandemic..
You are probably thinking.. “that sounds dangerous…”
What if the assumptions behind all that debt are wrong? Bad assumptions have been the catalyst for all the great credit market crashes. I remember the Great Perp Crash of 1986 – when investors mistakenly assumed banks would honour calls on cheap subordinated debt. When someone pointed out banks were under no obligation to repay effectively free capital early… the market tumbled 20-30%.
It was the questionable assumptions underlying Mortgage Backed lending that triggered the 2007/08 Global financial crisis.
Right now I’m thinking about the over $200 bln that’s been raised in emergency funding by airlines, shipping companies and other issuers involved in those sectors most heavily impacted by the Coronavirus. Much of that money has been raised on a secured basis: including planes and cruise ships. We still don’t know just how quickly, if at all, these sectors will reopen. It’s clear there is a glut of the underlying assets – raising questions about valuations. Yet, these recent Covid Asset-Backed funding deals have been tightening in line with the general credit market!
For anyone holding the Carnival Cruise Lines Loan and Bond issues, or who invested in the Royal Caribbean bailout, this morning’s photo is some boats similar to the assets backing your investment. I snapped it as we passed eight cruise liners lying at anchor off Portland on the South Coast of England last week. Earlier the same day we’d sailed past more of these ocean behemoths lying idle off Bournemouth.
I wonder what sort of future exists for these ghost fleets? Will they end up like the German High Seas fleet rotting on the bottom of Scapa Flow?
It doesn’t take a genius to figure out that all these cruise liners must be costing someone a pretty penny. A cruise liner costs around $10mm a month to run in “warm storage” – and Carnival has over 100 of them. None of them is earning a penny.
Cruise liner bosses say demand for cruises remains robust. Apparently more than 50% of passengers are taking the option of deferring refunds to take deals like a 125% credit on future bookings when cruising starts again. There was a surge in demand when a limited August series of cruises from Florida was announced – whether they happen is another matter as cruising has now been banned in US through September.
Even after putting boats on sale, and looking to scrap others, Carnival is still burning more than six hundred million dollars per month just to stay, ahem, “afloat”. It’s been to markets repeatedly – raising a $4 bln bond in April at 11%, then $2 bln from the loan market, and came back for another $1.3 bln bond deal last week. Although the company says its solvent for at least a year, I must be missing something. I think it will back again for more cash before October/November… They will say something like: “we’re borrowing now because we can, not because we are forced to..” but under that calm exterior, the cruise line will be paddling furiously!
Interestingly the second bond, is also secured but subordinated to the first deal (but is still senior secured to Carnival’s senior debt!!). That infers massive overcollateralization of the underlying assets – the perceived value of these cruise ships moored up in the English Channel. The second deal also carries a lower coupon, reflecting the fact Carnival’s April bond issue has tightened nearly 9 price points since launch.
Marvellous, but the price tightened in line with market because while the company might now be junk-rated, but still counts as Investment Grade for Fed purposes. If you accept that premise, I’ve a host of similarly asset secured bonds you might like to buy…
Carnival is still bleeding cash, with zero income and mounting bills, and its interest payments on new borrowing must be getting on for $70mm per month? Selling boats might be an option – if anyone was buying! Faced with a feast of unwanted cruise ships, scrap dealers are going to cut their bids to the bone.
None of that matters… the market is making assumptions around Carnival being able to keep borrowing, the Coronavirus being short-lived, and Carnival will soon deliver to the pent-up customer demand for cruises, thus make enough money to cover its debt load again.
But, even if Carnival could get itself fully functional tomorrow on the back of a vaccine or a similar miracle, the state of these boats sitting in the English Channel laid up isn’t great. Up close they look rusty and tired. Passengers go on cruises for their opulence – they don’t do scruffy and in need of a lick of paint.
Before they sail again, all these boats will require substantial refurbishment. The companies will have to go recruit and retrain crew, (don’t imagine all the Filipino crew who get treated like indentured labour are desperate to return.) The boats will need re-provisioning and restocking. Just bunkering them (fuelling up) will take time and logistical planning to get cruising businesses functional again.
Cruise liners thrive on being used. If they are in service, they are receiving constant daily maintenance. If they sit in a wet, salty ocean… they rust. There was a brilliant article on Bloomberg the other week: The World’s Cruise Liners Can’t Sail. What to do with them? If you are of a delicate disposition, don’t read the part describing what happens to the plumbing systems when they aren’t regularly used. In short.. unused boats rot.
It’s not just cruise liners that are going stale.
The aircraft optimistically parked on wet runways in Ireland and the UK for a few weeks back in March are going to require major recertification and work to put back in the air. That’s why most aircraft get stored in dry desert bone-yards. Much of the airport infrastructure is also going stale. Flying is not going to get any easier – it’s going to become increasingly bureaucratic!
(Years ago they built a magnificent airport with a suspiciously long runway out in Knock, Nowheresville, Ireland… an astute priest got it built to facilitate pilgrimages to see a moving statue (or did it bleed?) in his church, but we suspect NATO wanted somewhere to land B52s if things got unpleasant with the Ruskies. Now they’ve finally found a use for the airport – its become a site for scrapping A380s! Sad….)
Boeing is in a similar mess as Carnival. There is not an airline on the planet that wants new planes – when so many are for sale cheap! Boeing managed to avoid a bailout, and took $26 bln from the bond market. But it’s still not shifting the grounded B-737 Max – which looks like it may get permission to fly again in October, but no one is really wanting to fly it anymore. It’s still building 787 Dreamliners – but the order book is pretty bare. Boeing’s new aircraft, the B-777x isn’t on any airlines wish-list. Yet, Boeing’s stock price (which is the worst performer on S&P) is still 80% up on its nadir in March. I can’t think of a single positive thing to say about the plane maker. And its bonds have tightened… why? Oh.. because that is the way the market works…
My point is the market is making assumptions about the future value of companies and their assets that don’t seem rational in this new uncertain world. The underlying assets aren’t standing the test of time, the weather and the looming recession. Factor crashing real asset values into your investment equations.
via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/3eQ3SOs Tyler Durden
New rules also exclude QAnon content from Twitter trends. Twitter announced Tuesday that it is permanently suspending the accounts of around 7,000 users who have been spreading conspiracy theories about an alleged global pedophile ring patronized by top Democrats and soon-to-be prosecuted by President Donald Trump.
Known as QAnon, a reference to a secret figure, Q, who drops periodic online “updates” about the absurd and baseless child-trafficking theory, these conspiracy theorists have been gaining ground in the Republican Party, with a number of QAnon-promoting candidates winning primary elections and Trump sometimes retweeting those who use QAnon hashtags and slogans. QAnon grew out of the PizzaGate conspiracy, which surmised that Hillary Clinton and others were trafficking kids for sex through an unassuming D.C. pizza place and resulted in a gunman shooting up the restaurant in 2017.
As early as 2018, Reddit banned some QAnon content. “We are very clear in our site terms of service that posting content that incites violence, disseminates personal information, or harasses will get users and communities banned from Reddit,” a spokesperson for Reddit told NBC News then.
Yesterday, Twitter announced that it would be following suit. “We’ve been clear that we will take strong enforcement action on behavior that has the potential to lead to offline harm,” the @TwitterSafety account tweeted. “In line with this approach, this week we are taking further action on so-called ‘QAnon’ activity across the service.”
To be clear, Twitter is not simply banning anyone who tweets about QAnon or shares related ideas. Rather, it’s taking action against accounts tweeting about QAnon that are also “engaged in violations of our multi-account policy, coordinating abuse around individual victims, or … attempting to evade a previous suspension,” the company said, promising to follow through on the suspensions and other new rules around Q content throughout this week.
These new rules include excluding QAnon-related content from its trends and recommendations sections, working “to ensure we’re not highlighting this activity in search and conversations,” and blocking “URLs associated with QAnon from being shared on Twitter.”
Personally, I understand banning specific abusive or rule-breaking accounts but wish Twitter would leave its trends sections to populate organically and skip the blacklisting URLs bit. But whatever you think of Twitter’s move here, it’s important to note that Twitter is legally buttressed in its QAnon moves by the federal law known as Section 230. Many on the left and the right want to abolish Section 230, offering up a litany of ways it allegedly protects bad decisions by social media companies and other internet actors. But what Section 230 actually guarantees is that private companies like Twitter can moderate “objectionable” content as they see fit.
So, if you’re glad that Twitter is taking down or suppressing the spread of QAnon content, thank Section 230.
And, if you’re opposed to Twitter suppressing QAnon content and glad this content can still find a home elsewhere online, you should also thank Section 230. Without it, any web server, blogging software, email newsletter, or other online entity hosting QAnon theories would be much easier for anti-QAnon folks to take down.
In short, Section 230 protects private actors’ decisions to both allow controversial content and to ban controversial content. That’s a good thing. QAnon may be an absolutely nutso troll-turned-movement, but its proponents have as much right to speak online as the rest of us do.
ELECTION 2020
Libertarian Party presidential nominee Jo Jorgensen is polling at 3 percent, per a new national poll conducted by CNBC/Change Research from July 10–12. Green Party presidential candidate Howie Hawkins polled at 2 percent in the CNBC/Change Research poll. “Separate polling this month by Redfield & Wilton Strategies showed Hawkins with 1 percent support, while Jorgensen was backed by 2 percent of respondents,” notesNewsweek.
QUICK HITS
• A congressional measure to help demilitarize U.S. police forces has failed.
Ask your senator how they voted on this amendment. If they voted against it, they’re not doing a good job of representing your civil liberties in Washington. https://t.co/9RfkPOukSI
• “In a free society, citizens should be able to easily distinguish between civilian law enforcement tasked with keeping the peace in our communities and the armed forces tasked with protecting our country from foreign adversaries,” writes Kentucky Republican Sen. Rand Paul at Reason. “Unfortunately, thanks to the federal government flooding our neighborhoods with billions of dollars of military equipment and property over the years, the line between peace officer and soldier of war has become increasingly blurry.”
A U.S. senator matching her hair to her mask is such a 2020 vibe and I am here for it. (As I nearly always am for @SenatorSinema's aesthetic choices, if not for her policy preferences.) https://t.co/JK1Vm1SpAB
• “President Donald Trump has been trying to peddle his own version of fake reality, if not fake news, by repeatedly claiming that the recent rise in COVID-19 cases is only due to more testing,” writes Ron Bailey—but Trump is wrong, he argues.
• Sigh:
I love how people are mad at the startup and not the homeowners and landlords who made building apartments near jobs illegal. https://t.co/4t5XUBL6Xj
— Cathy Reisenwitz ???????????? (@CathyReisenwitz) July 22, 2020
• Double sigh:
"Officers entered the common area of his apartment building and placed a camera disguised as a smoke detector on the wall across the hallway from the front door of his unit." Videos showed suspect entering & exiting.
A bipartisan majority of registered voters strongly support state mandates that would fine or jail individuals if they fail to wear a mask in public, a new POLITICO/Morning Consult poll finds https://t.co/9ol12PH6Pr
New rules also exclude QAnon content from Twitter trends. Twitter announced Tuesday that it is permanently suspending the accounts of around 7,000 users who have been spreading conspiracy theories about an alleged global pedophile ring patronized by top Democrats and soon-to-be prosecuted by President Donald Trump.
Known as QAnon, a reference to a secret figure, Q, who drops periodic online “updates” about the absurd and baseless child-trafficking theory, these conspiracy theorists have been gaining ground in the Republican Party, with a number of QAnon-promoting candidates winning primary elections and Trump sometimes retweeting those who use QAnon hashtags and slogans. QAnon grew out of the PizzaGate conspiracy, which surmised that Hillary Clinton and others were trafficking kids for sex through an unassuming D.C. pizza place and resulted in a gunman shooting up the restaurant in 2017.
As early as 2018, Reddit banned some QAnon content. “We are very clear in our site terms of service that posting content that incites violence, disseminates personal information, or harasses will get users and communities banned from Reddit,” a spokesperson for Reddit told NBC News then.
Yesterday, Twitter announced that it would be following suit. “We’ve been clear that we will take strong enforcement action on behavior that has the potential to lead to offline harm,” the @TwitterSafety account tweeted. “In line with this approach, this week we are taking further action on so-called ‘QAnon’ activity across the service.”
To be clear, Twitter is not simply banning anyone who tweets about QAnon or shares related ideas. Rather, it’s taking action against accounts tweeting about QAnon that are also “engaged in violations of our multi-account policy, coordinating abuse around individual victims, or … attempting to evade a previous suspension,” the company said, promising to follow through on the suspensions and other new rules around Q content throughout this week.
These new rules include excluding QAnon-related content from its trends and recommendations sections, working “to ensure we’re not highlighting this activity in search and conversations,” and blocking “URLs associated with QAnon from being shared on Twitter.”
Personally, I understand banning specific abusive or rule-breaking accounts but wish Twitter would leave its trends sections to populate organically and skip the blacklisting URLs bit. But whatever you think of Twitter’s move here, it’s important to note that Twitter is legally buttressed in its QAnon moves by the federal law known as Section 230. Many on the left and the right want to abolish Section 230, offering up a litany of ways it allegedly protects bad decisions by social media companies and other internet actors. But what Section 230 actually guarantees is that private companies like Twitter can moderate “objectionable” content as they see fit.
So, if you’re glad that Twitter is taking down or suppressing the spread of QAnon content, thank Section 230.
And, if you’re opposed to Twitter suppressing QAnon content and glad this content can still find a home elsewhere online, you should also thank Section 230. Without it, any web server, blogging software, email newsletter, or other online entity hosting QAnon theories would be much easier for anti-QAnon folks to take down.
In short, Section 230 protects private actors’ decisions to both allow controversial content and to ban controversial content. That’s a good thing. QAnon may be an absolutely nutso troll-turned-movement, but its proponents have as much right to speak online as the rest of us do.
ELECTION 2020
Libertarian Party presidential nominee Jo Jorgensen is polling at 3 percent, per a new national poll conducted by CNBC/Change Research from July 10–12. Green Party presidential candidate Howie Hawkins polled at 2 percent in the CNBC/Change Research poll. “Separate polling this month by Redfield & Wilton Strategies showed Hawkins with 1 percent support, while Jorgensen was backed by 2 percent of respondents,” notesNewsweek.
QUICK HITS
• A congressional measure to help demilitarize U.S. police forces has failed.
Ask your senator how they voted on this amendment. If they voted against it, they’re not doing a good job of representing your civil liberties in Washington. https://t.co/9RfkPOukSI
• “In a free society, citizens should be able to easily distinguish between civilian law enforcement tasked with keeping the peace in our communities and the armed forces tasked with protecting our country from foreign adversaries,” writes Kentucky Republican Sen. Rand Paul at Reason. “Unfortunately, thanks to the federal government flooding our neighborhoods with billions of dollars of military equipment and property over the years, the line between peace officer and soldier of war has become increasingly blurry.”
A U.S. senator matching her hair to her mask is such a 2020 vibe and I am here for it. (As I nearly always am for @SenatorSinema's aesthetic choices, if not for her policy preferences.) https://t.co/JK1Vm1SpAB
• “President Donald Trump has been trying to peddle his own version of fake reality, if not fake news, by repeatedly claiming that the recent rise in COVID-19 cases is only due to more testing,” writes Ron Bailey—but Trump is wrong, he argues.
• Sigh:
I love how people are mad at the startup and not the homeowners and landlords who made building apartments near jobs illegal. https://t.co/4t5XUBL6Xj
— Cathy Reisenwitz ???????????? (@CathyReisenwitz) July 22, 2020
• Double sigh:
"Officers entered the common area of his apartment building and placed a camera disguised as a smoke detector on the wall across the hallway from the front door of his unit." Videos showed suspect entering & exiting.
A bipartisan majority of registered voters strongly support state mandates that would fine or jail individuals if they fail to wear a mask in public, a new POLITICO/Morning Consult poll finds https://t.co/9ol12PH6Pr
Tropical Depression In Atlantic Becomes Tropical Storm Gonzalo, Headed For Caribbean Tyler Durden
Wed, 07/22/2020 – 09:25
Update (8:55ET): Tropical Depression Seven has formed into Tropical Storm Gonzalo on Wednesday morning. The system is expected to move toward the Caribbean by the end of the week.
* * *
Tropical Depression Seven is traversing the Atlantic Ocean between Africa and the Lesser Antilles and has a 90% chance it could strengthen into Tropical Storm Gonzalo in the next 48 hours, according to Colorado State University meteorologist Philip Klotzbach.
National #Hurricane Center now gives 90% chance of named storm formation in the central tropical Atlantic in next 48 hours. If it gets named, it will be Gonzalo. Current record for earliest 7th named storm formation in the Atlantic is Gert on July 24, 2005. pic.twitter.com/iW7MDvqm0R
Klotzbach tweeted, “Tropical Depression 7 has formed in the central tropical Atlantic and is forecast to become a named storm” on Wednesday.
Tropical Depression 7 has formed in the central tropical Atlantic and is forecast to become a named storm in next 12 hours. If it gets named, it would be Gonzalo. Current record for earliest 7th named storm formation in the Atlantic is Gert on July 24, 2005. #hurricanepic.twitter.com/xN8goMkpaX
He said the sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic correlate with “active Atlantic hurricane seasons.”
The current sea surface temperature anomaly pattern over the North Atlantic looks very much like the July sea surface temperature pattern that has historically correlated with active Atlantic #hurricane seasons. pic.twitter.com/puZi7EC5di
The system is the first tropical cyclone of this season to form between the Atlantic Ocean between Africa and the Lesser Antilles. The Weather Channel said there are conflicting models, one where the system can weaken and another where it can “intensify quickly.”
Dry air is currently to the west and north of the system, which is one factor that can weaken and disrupt tropical cyclones.
While shearing winds are currently not near this system, it may encounter increased wind shear as it nears the Windward Islands this weekend.
These factors would argue for a weakening of the system by the time it nears the Windward Islands Saturday.
Small systems like this can intensify quickly in the right conditions, but they can also succumb to unfavorable conditions more quickly than a larger storm. In other words, they can strengthen and weaken much more and at a faster rate than expected.
So, the range of outcomes for the intensity forecast is large, anywhere from this storm remaining weak or dissipating east of the Windward Islands, to a possible strong tropical storm or hurricane.
Fortunately, the track forecast is a bit more straightforward. We expect a general west-northwest track into the Windward Islands by Saturday.
Interests in the Lesser Antilles, including areas as far south as Trinidad and Tobago, even the northern coast of Venezuela, should monitor the progress of this system closely. – The Weather Channel
The Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to fly into the storm on Wednesday morning. As the system moves west-northwest into the Gulf of Mexico, it will certainly be one to follow as it could be the next name on the 2020 hurricane list as Gonzalo.
via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/3fPqXSU Tyler Durden
Rabo: Trump And Biden Should Debate While Attached To A Lie Detector Tyler Durden
Wed, 07/22/2020 – 09:05
By Michael Every of Rabobank
Well, at least it’s consistent
The USD is firmly in retreat at the moment. The charge is being led primarily by EUR, which on the back of the gruelling mega summit that just concluded has pushed up to 1.1540. Ironically, of course, the summit itself arguably delivered little more than economic gruel rather than rich feast the European stocks, and hence the Euro, are expecting (see here for more detail). Then again, markets are perfectly happy to exist on solid air alone rather than calorie-rich dishes – provided central-bank amphetamines keep them going.
Indeed, after EUR’s push higher we now see CNY doing the same, now around 6.97, and AUD following suite above 0.7140. In the case of the former, that is despite US-China tensions continuing to escalate from trade to technology to capital flows; to sanctions; to recent allegations of hacking of virus vaccine data; and even to talk of the risks of US-China conflict in the South China Sea in both the South China Morning Post and from the editor of the Global Times. Bloomberg also has the temerity to warn today that over-heated Chinese iron-ore price action suggests the “smooth bull market” in stocks we were promised by its commentators as recently as Monday is at risk of reversal because retail investors are clearly bidding up anything that they see en masse – again. Like they always do.
In the case of AUD this latest uptick is despite the virus situation in Victoria continuing to worsen, pushing back any hope of an escape from damaging economic lockdown, and China making clear that when Australia does eventually re-open there may well not be any of their students or tourists arriving anyway. Aussie iron ore is still flowing to China – to build more empty third and fourth homes there for a subset of the population, apparently.
However, at least one can say that markets are consistent. Because if there’s one thing even more annoying than markets being detached from reality, it’s internal contradictions that make that fantasy world unbelievable: it pulls you out of the whole suspension of disbelief thing like a branded coffee cup left on the table in Game of Thrones.
After all, it makes sense to see internally-divided, (France aside) unarmed, mercantilist net export-dependent EUR rallying in a world of rising geopolitical threats and protectionism –and, as Reuters reports here, internally-united, heavily-armed, mercantilist net export-dependent CNY doing the same– when a certain US auto company that makes hardly any very expensive vehicles is valued by the stock market more highly than all the other existing car companies with tens of millions of sales of far more affordable alternatives. Or that profitless whizz-bang tech firms are priced as if they have already defeated all their inherent lack of profits, all current and future competition, and all present and future political opposition to their ‘disruption’, and have become the sole global monopolist in their respective market niche.
All one has to do is extend one or two dots out to infinity and presume that nothing bad ever happens anywhere, consistently, despite the panoply of evidence to the contrary. Or, in other words, amphetamine (and dopamine; and dopes)-fuelled contemporary markets.
Indeed, one can even argue that it’s internally consistent to be having debates in the UK over Winston Churchill’s continued relevance given the man, besides his glaring historical policy errors and deep personality flaws, was regarded as a washed-up old alcoholic tinfoil hat conspiracy theorist in the 1930s…right up until he re-emerged to lead the UK to victory in WW2.
Of course, we must all do our best to maintain this Risk On approach by shielding ourselves from unwanted information. Until recently this meant the US president not even doing virus briefings – though these have just started again, and masks are now the new ‘not masks’. For another example not too far removed, Thomas Friedman of globalisation-is-great-The-World-is-Flat fame, who has a random Op-Ed generator function on the internet to replicate the portentous vacuousness of his regular work, argued two weeks ago –in a New York Times Op-Ed– that presidential candidate Joe Biden should refuse to debate Donald Trump in the planned series of three clashes unless:
1) Trump finally releases his tax returns; and
2) that there is a “real-time fact-checking team approved by both candidates” and that “10 minutes before the conclusion of the debate this team report on any misleading statements, phony numbers or outright lies either candidate has uttered.”
Given past form, I am not sure that either candidate is going to do well on the “misleading statements” or “phony numbers” front. Should we perhaps make both men debate while attached to a lie detector? Perhaps they could also receive mild electric shocks if misspeaking like the early episode of The Simpsons where the whole family are in therapy and opt to electro-shock each other all the time rather than play nicely?
Moreover, who would be doing the fact-checking? Would it include claims like free trade deals always create good news jobs in the net importing country? Or that tax cuts for the rich trickle always down to the poor? Or that wearing masks is the wrong thing to do because there is no science to back it? Because those kind of things are open to question now, aren’t they? **BUZZZZZ!**Ouch!!!
Yet this seems to be where US politics is heading: to an avoidance of debate; and of awkward facts that some want to disregard as “untrue”; and of interaction with (increasingly rare) critical journalists and anything other than partisan crowds willing to ‘believe the dream’.
And the same is true for global markets, of course. Like I said, at least it’s consistent.
via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/3eNeRIF Tyler Durden
Ethiopian Airlines Boeing 777 Suffers Major Fire In China Tyler Durden
Wed, 07/22/2020 – 08:44
An Ethiopian Boeing 777 freighter caught fire while loading cargo at Shanghai Pudong International Airport in China on Wednesday.
Ethiopian Airlines told Bloomberg in an emailed statement that the freighter “was on regular cargo service from Shanghai to Sao Paulo-Santiago.” The statement said the plane’s crew and ground workers are safe and no injuries have so far been reported. Local authorities are investigating the incident, the airliner added.
Photos and videos of the incident are circulating on Chinese social media. The fire appears to have started on the main cargo deck and burnt through the fuselage.
Here’s an up-close video of the Boeing freighter on fire.
Yet another video of the burning Ethiopian 777F ET-ARH at Shanghai Pudong Int’l Airport. A fire truck drove pass right in front of the camera. The background voice is a commercial in the radio. #AvGeekpic.twitter.com/BQ7c4hImji
Twitter handle Phil Heard tweeted a similar incident that occurred on an Ethiopian 787 Dreamliner back in 2015.
Shades of Heathrow in 2015 when a short circuit caused a fire on an Ethiopian 787 Dreamliner parked off stand. That was salvageable. This 777, no… https://t.co/Stu6sYdlaEpic.twitter.com/ctMV0Bumy6
Twitter handle FATIII Aviation tweeted, “no aircraft taking off or approaching at the moment” at Shanghai Pudong.
#Breaking latest NOTAM showing all 4 runways at Shanghai Pudong is currently closed. No aircraft taking off or approaching at the moment. #AvGeekpic.twitter.com/H1WhpgW6xU
Boeing shares are lower on Wednesday premarket as an overnight report via The Wall Street Journal said passenger flights of its 737 Max won’t resume until early 2021.
via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2ON6ORn Tyler Durden
