Fleet Sales To Plunge 56% In June, Pressuring US Auto Market Further

Fleet Sales To Plunge 56% In June, Pressuring US Auto Market Further

Tyler Durden

Sun, 07/05/2020 – 09:55

Over the last few months we detailed how used car prices were set to cripple what little interest in new cars remains, how dealers are scrambling to offer incentives and how ships full of vehicles are being turned away at port cities due to the lack of space and inventory glut.

And just as the industry was hoping for some respite, weak fleet orders for June are making it seem as though a recovery is still far away. Cox Automotive is forecasting that fleet sales will fall 56% to 1.3 million vehicles in June, after plunging 83% in May and 77% in April, according to Reuters.

Cox is also predicting that further job cuts could occur if production at U.S. automakers doesn’t eventually ramp back up.  Zohaib Rahim, economic and industry insights manager at Cox Automotive, said: “If we don’t see a rebound in 2021, this will be a problem for automakers. But right now they’re using all their production to supply dealers.”

Cox is still predicting, however, that commercial sales will bounce back in 2021 despite government orders taking a hit. 

While fleet sales aren’t a main concern for automakers – higher margin sales to customers are – they can still put pressure on the industry as a whole. And with rental companies like Hertz now in the midst of bankruptcy, there is sure to be a profound effect not only on dealer sales, but the used car aftermarket. 62% of vehicles sold to fleet buyers in 2019 went to rental car companies. 

In 2019, fleet sales accounted for about 22% of GM’s sales, with about half going to rental fleets and the other half going to corporations and government agencies.

Fleet sales made up about 28% of Nissan’s 2019 sales, with 93% of those going to rental car companies. 

John Ruppert, Ford’s general manager of commercial and government fleet sales said it “could be some time in 2021” before sales recover. He cites more people working from home as a headwind, despite it catalyzing the need for more delivery vehicles.

Commercial vehicle contract talks, which usually start in March or April, were non-existent up until this month. Now, they look to be commencing to some degree. Ruppert said: “We’re seeing those contract talks happening now in earnest. Some orders could be delayed a quarter or two, he said, meaning overall commercial fleet sales should recover some time in 2021.”

Meanwhile, GM’s strategy seems to be ignore reality and just hope for the best. The company stated: “Rental companies have been an important customer of ours. We expect that to continue in the future, when the rental market recovers.”

Let us know how that works out for you. 

Recall, earlier this month we laid out where used car prices are crashing the most in the U.S. 

That report predicted a sharp drop in retail prices in the coming weeks, stating that “a combination of record supply, damaged consumer confidence, and new car incentives will ultimately create a perfect storm causing retail prices to drop sharply in the coming weeks.”

Between January and May, individual U.S. states experienced price drops ranging from 1% to 5%, the report shows.

“Luxury vehicles and electric vehicles are disproportionately represented among the top 15 models with the biggest drop in used car prices so far,” we noted in early June.

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2ZKDK2e Tyler Durden

Stanford Doc: COVID Fatality Rate For People Under 45 Is “Almost 0%”

Stanford Doc: COVID Fatality Rate For People Under 45 Is “Almost 0%”

Tyler Durden

Sun, 07/05/2020 – 09:20

Authored by Dominick Mastrangelo via The Washington Examiner,

Stanford University’s disease prevention chairman slammed using statewide lockdown measures as a response to the coronavirus, saying they were implemented based on bad data and inaccurate modeling.

“There are already more than 50 studies that have presented results on how many people in different countries and locations have developed antibodies to the virus,” Dr. John Ioannidis said during a recent interview with Greek Reporter.

“Of course, none of these studies are perfect, but cumulatively, they provide useful composite evidence. A very crude estimate might suggest that about 150-300 million or more people have already been infected around the world, far more than the 10 million documented cases.”

Ioannidis pointed out the mortality rate is low among young people who have contracted the virus.

“The death rate in a given country depends a lot on the age structure, who are the people infected, and how they are managed,” Ioannidis said.

“For people younger than 45, the infection fatality rate is almost 0%. For 45 to 70, it is probably about 0.05%-0.3%. For those above 70, it escalates substantially.”

Since the pandemic began in February, more than 2.6 million people in the United States have contracted the virus, and 128,000 have died.

Several states have seen spikes in cases, especially in the southeastern part of the country, where lockdown measures were lifted earlier than in other states.

The mortality rate nationwide appears to be tapering, however, a trend U.S. health officials attribute to a younger age bracket in terms of infection. The national single-day death rate from the virus fell to a three-month low last month. Additionally, Massachusetts reported zero new deaths from the coronavirus on Tuesday for the first time since March.

Dr. Anthony Fauci, the nation’s leading infectious disease expert, said last month that the increases in cases are partially due to an expanded national testing capacity and the phased reopening of local economies.

“If you test more, you will likely pick up more infections,” Fauci said.

“Once you see that the percentage is higher, then you’ve really got to be careful — because then, you really are seeing additional infections that you weren’t seeing before.”

Ioannidis questioned whether the rate of infection and mortality rate were worth shutting down the U.S. economy for months.

“Major consequences on the economy, society, and mental health have already occurred,” he said.

“I hope they are reversible, and this depends to a large extent on whether we can avoid prolonging the draconian lockdowns and manage to deal with COVID-19 in a smart, precision-risk targeted approach rather than blindly shutting down everything.”

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/3eZGvTG Tyler Durden

Permanent Job Losses Will Be A Rude Awakening For The Stock Market 

Permanent Job Losses Will Be A Rude Awakening For The Stock Market 

Tyler Durden

Sun, 07/05/2020 – 08:45

The unemployment level is still at Great Depression levels. Labor market deterioration through summer could ignite new concerns of permanent job loss and deep economic scarring from the virus-induced recession. 

At the moment, confirmed virus cases are surging, and states are pausing and or reversing reopening plans, as consumer foot traffic across the country is stalling. Workers that were just rehired are being fired in some regions. These emerging trends suggest the recent bounce in economic growth could form a “W” rather than a “V” shaped recovery. 

Tens of millions of workers are jobless and are collecting unemployment insurance compared with pre-COVID-19 levels. Layoffs once temporary are becoming permanent. 

The number of permanent job loss now stands at nearly 3 million in June, up from 1.6 million people in February. 

And why is this? Well, here’s a good example: Yelp made a shocking claim last week that said: 41% of all business closures on its platform are permanent closures.

“Our data shows the largest spikes of permanent closures occurred in March, followed by May and June, indicating that the businesses that were already struggling had to permanently close right away and the businesses that were trying to hold on, but unable to weather the COVID-19 storm, were forced to shutter in recent months.” 

About half of all small businesses are expected to close within the next six months, according to a recent survey – that means more permanent job loss. If readers didn’t know, mom and pop shops generate the majority of US jobs. 

There are signs the recovery is stalling:

Macro research firm Capital Economics shows consumer foot traffic has stalled as cases surge and reopenings paused. 

“Don’t let the size of the rebound confuse you — it’s still a partial rebound as more [temporary] layoffs convert to permanent,” Arindrajit Dube, a professor of economics at the University of Massachusetts Amherst, tweeted.”And a lot of headwind already coming our way [new closures].”

Unless the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet continues to expand, what we mean is that it’s been shrinking for three weeks, the stock market could be in for a rude awakening about the true employment situation that will have long-lasting negative effects on consumption. 

Permanaent Job Loss (inverse) vs. S&P500 

Permanent job loss is a consumption killer, something the stock market in the past has sold on, though the Fed’s aggressive balance sheet expansion has suspended stocks at record high valuations, this manipulation cannot last forever as the economy is likely to stumble into a mulit-year downturn. 

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2BI3NyX Tyler Durden

The Bullish Test Comes As Earnings Season Begins

The Bullish Test Comes As Earnings Season Begins

Tyler Durden

Sun, 07/05/2020 – 08:10

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

A Breakout Of Consolidation

Over the last few week’s we have noted the continuing consolidation of the market since the June peak.  When markets are overbought short-term, that condition is resolved through a correction or consolidation process. Such is what occurred during the last part of June and completed last week.

As shown below, the market broke out of that consolidation and triggered a “buy signals” across multiple measures. This breakout will give the “bulls” an advantage in the short-term with a retest of the June highs becoming highly probable.

The bulls will also gain some additional support from the “Golden Cross” (when the 50-dma crosses above the 200-dma). That “bullish signal” will likely occur over the next week or two depending on market action.

The “bullish supports” for the market are currently in play. Such keeps our portfolio allocations weighted towards equity risk. However, there are many fundamental and economic headwinds that could quickly derail the bullish thesis.

Seasonality In Play

In the short-term, the bulls remain in charge currently, and as such, we must be mindful of those trends. Also, the month of July tends to be one of the better performing months of the year.

As noted last week:

“With the sell-off on Friday, the short-term oversold condition, a reflexive rally next week would not be surprising.”

That rally reversed much of the short-term oversold condition. While the bulls are in control of the market currently, the upside is somewhat limited. However, the downside risks are reduced with the improvement in the technical underpinnings. Such puts the risk/reward dynamics to a more equally balanced, than opportunistic, positioning. As such, risk controls and hedges should remain for now.

  • -1.4% to breakout level vs. +2.4% previous rally peak. (Neutral)

  • -5% to 50/200 dma support vs. +4.9% to January peak (Neutral)

  • -7% to previous consolidation peak vs. +6.5% to all-time highs. (Neutral)

  • -13.4% to previous consolidation lows vs. +6.5% to all-time highs. (Negative)

Earnings Estimates Update

Over the next two weeks, we will enter the earnings season for all publicly traded corporations. Of course, we will mostly hear about those companies which comprise the S&P 500 index. I am writing a more comprehensive report on the earnings estimates for Tuesday’s “Technically Speaking.” Still, I did want to make a quick comment about what is coming.

As with every quarter, we are about to play “Millennial Soccer.” Such is where Wall Street analysts continually lower earnings estimates for the quarter until companies can beat them. When you see the analysis that 70% of companies beat their estimates, just remember analysts lowered the bar to a point where “everybody gets a trophy.” 

What will be important to pay attention to is “revenue,” which happens at the top of the income statement. Companies can do a lot to fudge bottom-line earnings by using accruals, “cookie jar” reserves, share buybacks, and a variety of other accounting gimmicks. It is much more difficult to manipulate revenue.

However, the market will focus on reported earnings. As stated, the estimates have fallen sharply over recent weeks, and are far lower than where they were set previously.

Importantly, while Wall Street has dramatically lowered estimates for the coming quarter, expectations remain for a rapid recovery in the economy. Given the rise in COVID-19 cases as of late, states pausing reopening, and depressionary levels of unemployment, it is highly likely those future estimates will ratchet sharply lower.

Such makes the mantra of using 24-month estimates to justify paying exceedingly high valuations today even riskier.

“Price is what you pay, value is what you get.” – Warren Buffett

A Quick Note On The Jobs Report

While the BLS reported a massive 4.8 million in employment for June and a drop in the unemployment rate to 11.1%, these numbers remain distorted by bad data gathering and analysis.

As Mish Shedlock noted on Thursday:

“I question both the strength of the rise in jobs and the decline in the unemployment rate based on claims data and the reference week.”

I agree.

It’s hard to reconcile a 4.8 million increase in jobs in a month where you added over 4-million to initial jobless claims and continuing claims continued to remain near the highest levels on record.

More importantly, as noted by Zerohedge, there is a problem in the data when you have more people getting unemployment benefits than there are unemployed workers.

“As the DOL reported todaythere were 19.29 million workers receiving unemployment insurance. And yet, somehow, at the same time, the BLS also represented that the total number of unemployed workers is, drumroll, 17.75 million.

If you said this makes no sense, and pointed out that the unemployment insurance number has to be smaller than the total unemployed number, you are right. And indeed, for 50 years of data, that was precisely the case.”

The main point here is that employment is what drives earnings, corporate profits, and GDP. Given the exceedingly high level of unemployment, in real terms, the recovery to earnings will much slower than expected.

Such suggests that expectations for the bull market to continue “to infinity and beyond,” will likely prove disappointing.

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2NTIJIc Tyler Durden

COVID Impact – 1.5 Billion Pound Potato Mountain Trapped In Supply Chain 

COVID Impact – 1.5 Billion Pound Potato Mountain Trapped In Supply Chain 

Tyler Durden

Sun, 07/05/2020 – 07:35

Nationwide COVID-19 lockdowns led to the collapse of the restaurant industry has disrupted critical food supply chains, such as potatoes, which had nowhere to go. The closings of restaurants, hotels, and catering firms had a chain effect that rippled down the production line to processors and growers, “trapping 1.5 billion pounds in the supply chain,” said Bussiness Insider. Some farmers gave away millions of potatoes to food banks, while others were forced to destroy millions more. 

Business Insider took a trip to a potato seed farm in Sheridan, Montana, and spoke with farmers Peggy and Bill Buyan, who described the emotional and financial impact COVID-19 has caused them. 

Courtesy of Business Insider, here’s an excerpt of the video transcript: 

Narrator: These potatoes aren’t gonna end up on your dinner table. Their final destination is this hole. We’re in the small town of Sheridan, Montana, on a potato farm. Normally this time of year, Bill and Peggy would be sending their potatoes to be planted. Instead, they’re throwing away 700 tons.

Bill Buyan: The potatoes have been awful good to us for a lot of years, but this year it just really turned sour.

Narrator: And the same thing is happening across the Northwest.

Bill: I mean, it was just unprecedented. It’s the supply chain from the growers to the supermarket that got interrupted.

Zak Miller: More than half of our market shut down by government mandate.

Narrator: Now farmers across Idaho and Montana are stuck with mountains of potatoes. So why did this all happen?

We visited Buyan Ranch, where Peggy and Bill have been growing potato seed for 59 years. Normally, potato production across the Northwest looks like this. It starts with a seed grower like Buyan, where farmers grow a variety of seed strains.

Zak: Virtually all the potatoes grown started out from a certified seed. That’s a fairly rigorous process that avoids disease, imperfections.

Narrator: Buyan grows three different disease-free seed strains: Umatilla, Clearwater, and Russet Burbank potatoes. Each potato variety goes to a specific grower in either the fresh or processed segment. In the fresh segment…

Zak: You’re actually seeing the potato in its true form.

Narrator: That’s foods like a raw potato at a grocery store or au gratin potatoes at your favorite restaurant.

Zak: The other side of that is – we call it our process segment. You don’t actually see the potato; you see the byproduct or the end result of that.

Narrator: That’s the bag of potato chips, the french fries at McDonald’s, or the precut fries in the frozen section.

Zak: If you’re a fresh-product grower, you’ll plant a different variety, or a different genetic line of potatoes. If you’re a process grower, you’ll grow a different product line. Just, some fry better, they have a better color to them. Others grow better.

Narrator: Now back to the farm. Potato growers get the seed from Buyan and start planting in March, then they harvest in early fall. Once the potatoes are out of the ground, they go into storage or are sent to a factory, where they’re cleaned and turned into either fresh or processed potatoes.

Zak: When COVID hit, we had a huge run on retail, which lasted for about a week to two weeks, but then when we shut off all the restaurants, that’s when everything came out of kilter.

Narrator: Potatoes for food service, like restaurants, hotels, and catering, make up an estimated 55% of all potato crops.

Zak: Think of everything from white-table restaurants clear down to your fast, quick service.

Narrator: So when food-service establishments shut down because of COVID-19, it was a chain effect. Processors cut down orders with growers. Out of options, the growers cut their orders with seed farmers. And more than half of the industry’s potatoes were stranded on seed farms. In Peggy’s case, her customers in Washington were cut back more than 50%, and she and Bill were stuck with tons of seed they’d normally sell.

Zak: You can’t take some of these facilities that are built directly for food service and then tomorrow flip a switch and make them able to sell into retail. You’re asking – a square peg in a round hole, I guess, is the best analogy I can come up with.

Narrator: The surplus potatoes also couldn’t just be sent to grocery stores.

Zak: Grocery stores or retails would have been bursting to the seams with potatoes if we had redirected all that.

Bill: We had high hopes that maybe something would turn up, you know? That in a month or so, we might be able to send them somewhere for some kind of processing. But this year’s, there’s just no market for them, and we’re just taking them out, taking them into a burial pit.

Narrator: Peggy and Bill have been forced to bury 1.4 million pounds of potatoes in total.

*  *  *

A second round of the virus could be underway. This would absolutely devastate the farming industry that could spiral into collapse. Virus cases are surging across the nation, hitting record one-day totals, which has forced many states to pause or reverse reopening.

Goldman Sach’s latest state-level coronavirus tracker calculates 40% of the US has now reversed or placed reopening on hold. 

“Arizona has now joined Florida, Texas and California in beginning to reverse reopening policy, bringing the share of the population in states where policy is becoming more restrictive up to 30% over just the past five days. Governors of several smaller states have announced their reopenings are on hold, and yesterday the governors of New York, Pennsylvania, and Connecticut each said they are considering postponing reopening plans as well,” we noted. 

The US reported 50,000 new coronavirus cases on Wednesday, the highest single-day total since the start of the pandemic.

As the virus reemerges, states pause or reverse reopenings, businesses will operate at limited capacity or not at all – suggesting farmers could see another round of pain. 

To make matters worse, China has ditched US farmers for ones in Latin America. 

Time for President Trump to bailout out farmers for the…. (we lost count). 

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/3e0aLwq Tyler Durden

#DefundThePolice – The Real Strategy Behind The Hashtag

#DefundThePolice – The Real Strategy Behind The Hashtag

Tyler Durden

Sun, 07/05/2020 – 07:00

Authored by Tim Kirby via The Strategic Culture Foundation,

The demands of revolutionaries are purposely vague. They always have to do with some feelings-based desire like “freedom” or ending “oppression”. The government can create a law, remove a tax, or do all sorts of specific things, but there is nothing that they can do to make you feel freedom or non oppressed. In today’s America regardless of any factual evidence there are some who feel like they live in a freedom packed utopia while others claim that they are living under the heel of Hitler 2.0.

Both of these positions are based on intuition and feelings not a universal rational freedom scale, which simply could not exist. The feeling of freedom is usually derived from being in agreement with society not some Human Freedom Index. So for those that have despised the system for their entire politically active lives there is absolutely nothing that the government can do to remove their feelings of repression. Appeasing a person who is absolutely rock solid in their belief that the state is evil and against them is thus – utterly pointless. In this context it is very surprising that the Black Lives Matter protests that are violently liberating convenience stores of their cigarettes have chosen a surprisingly objective demand from the powers that be – #DefundThePolice.

Photo: “Defund” seems like an unnatural word choice from a protest movement at first glance.

This peculiar choice of the word “defund” is very interesting. It would seem more natural for a supposedly enraged group of oppressed people to pick something hateful and stupid like “#KillThePolice” or “PigLivesDontMatter. One would also expect from today’s protest generation something that is horrifically naive and obviously not going to happen like #BanThePolice or #FireThePolice, but instead they chose the word “Defund”. This is not a hip and cool word for the rainbow hair colored individuals out there but something very bureaucratic and in some ways pragmatic. This is perhaps the reason why it was chosen.

No bureaucrats on the local, state or federal level (we should not forget that in America the police are NOT a monolithic national entity like in many countries) can somehow just get rid of the police. There is no red button to delete massive government entities, but “defunding” is an action that is very viable from a paperwork standpoint. One could never eliminate the U.S. Army but if it were to have no ammunition or food delivered for months the results would be basically the same. At the very least the army would cease to function and at worst the soldiers would turn to selling or stealing anything they could from the army bases to survive like in 1990s Russia. If the U.S. military needs $750 billion per year but were to only get $750 million then it may as well have just been dissolved. But again reducing a budget is bureaucratically vastly easier than elimination.

As we have seen many politicians have been sympathetic to the BLM cause and may be willing to push to cut the lifeblood of any government organization (funding) to a very uncomfortable or completely nonviable level for some greater good. Even just some changes in the way police policy handles the means of arresting suspects has been enough to start making the boys in blue throw in their badges. This is a matter of dozens of people not thousands, but some salary cuts and a lack of ammo could be enough to cull the police herd. But why is defunding law enforcement so critical to BLM?

How does cutting the purse strings of various police departments (probably in predominantly Blue states/cities) end the supposed existence of systemic racism that has crushed Black America for generations? It doesn’t, but it sure makes revolutionary action a lot more consequence free.

Although the police claim to “serve and protect” ultimately they exist to keep the masses inline (Black or otherwise) and breakup internal threats in a direct way, much like an army that acts only within its own borders. If some kind of Color Revolutionaries get into a fight they are going to be doing so with a cop and not a leatherneck, so law enforcement is their real enemy. Law enforcement, enforces the current laws and are willing to beat and kill Revolutionaries (who want to change those laws) while doing so.

Some individual people behind the BLM movement who are very unlikely to resemble the “target audience” must be feeling pretty smart about themselves at the moment. They have sent a big signal to sympathetic politicians to cripple their enemy, but the thing is that if the police are defunded even on a massive scale that certainly does not guarantee that Hitler 2.0 is doomed to the fate of Hussein or Gaddafi and that this will usher in some new Liberal utopia.

Photo: In a stable society this type of protest is tolerated. During a civil war/revolution they would just be shot.

The irony is that the Antifas, BLMs, Trendy Liberals and some decent people who actually do care about the destiny of Black Americans actually get shown a lot of mercy by the police. In theory they could just shoot them, but they generally when the cameras are rolling the cops maintain the farce that beatings and tear gas are humane and not a violation of one’s right to protest – they do not just open fire. Journalists may write that there are “clashes” between protestors and police but these are not the same type of clashes that happen when organized men with guns engage other organized men with guns. If monument destruction and building tent villages were to turn into a civil conflict the gloves would come off immediately. If the police are taken out of the question, this won’t create a safe space for revolution, but will embolden the Heartland of America to take out its rage. The Right Wingers who have been dreaming of the day when they can finally turn their guns on their enemies would come very quickly in the absence of the police.

For some reason America’s Left has romantic notions about Anarchy when it is really the Populist Heartland Right that that would come out the winners in a temporary absence of government. The dad-homeowner is terrified of going to jail and losing everything he has worked for so the police keep him totally in check, but in a state of complete chaos all of a sudden he is motivated to take violent action to make sure his stuff remains intact.

In the highly unlikely event that the BLM protests do lead to some revolutionary moment, Trump still has the advantage – the military (current and former), the defunded police, homeowners and heartlanders, with no work and the possibility to lose everything in front of their faces will be very easy to mobilize and their wrath will be great. Then again Trump under pressure could take the “Yanukovich” route and just give up to start a fine career in alcoholism in some foreign country.

Defunding the police is a great signal to make revolution easier in America, but it is no guarantee of success. White teenagers who love hating their country of origin and shedding fake tears for the repression of some other ethnicity they have never let into their house are not going to hold the line after the impact of the first volley especially armed with cutesy poo improvised weapons. If certain people want a civil war, maybe they will get it if some politicians are willing to defund, but they certainly are not going to win it.

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2ZznGA6 Tyler Durden

I Don’t Want To Be Anybody’s Employee

featurekavin

Linda Greenstein and Joseph Lagana looked pained. The two New Jersey legislators knew their seats on the Labor Committee existed at the pleasure of the state Senate’s president, Steve Sweeney, who has a habit of removing his fellow Democrats from powerful positions if he doesn’t like their votes. Greenstein and Lagana had one job on December 5, 2019: back a bill that Sweeney had sponsored. And they did that job. But when the moment came to cast their votes and move the bill out of committee, each came close to apologizing.

The bill, which would have reclassified many independent contractors as traditional salaried employees, was promoted as a way to protect low-wage workers whose companies were cheating them out of salaries and benefits. But Greenstein and Lagana had just spent four hours listening to testimony from working mothers, senior citizens, African Americans, Hispanics, and suburban women—key parts of their party’s base—who said the legislation would instead destroy their chosen careers. The standing-room-only crowd that had come to testify against the bill included teachers, writers, bakers, lawyers, musicians, photographers, and truck drivers. It also included me: The bill threatened the stream of freelance writing and editing income I’d spent the past 17 years building.

“We heard an amazing—what I consider an amazing—amount of opposition,” Greenstein told the crowd, adding that the bill was the most confusing she has encountered in her two decades in the New Jersey Legislature. She ultimately voted yes, but she acknowledged for the public record that the legislation needed work: “I think that somebody used the term ‘unintended consequences,’ and it may be that that’s what’s going on here.”

State and federal lawmakers across America need to understand what those blue-state Democrats learned that day—and the Democratic Party needs to amend its labor platform accordingly. The debate we were having in New Jersey shortly before COVID-19 struck will be of critical importance for the entire American economy if we intend to climb out of the post-pandemic economic wreckage.

The Democratic Party had been planning to roll out bills like this across the country, hoping to compel companies to hire more people as employees with benefits instead of as independent contractors who get cash-only pay. The push started in California, where Gov. Gavin Newsom signed its version of the legislation—A.B. 5—into law in September 2019. Similar legislation was introduced around the same time in New Jersey and New York. On the federal level, language along the same lines was added to the proposed Protecting the Right to Organize (PRO) Act.

But the rollout didn’t go as planned. When A.B. 5 took effect in California on January 1, we didn’t see hundreds of companies convert independent contractors into employees. Instead, thousands of independent contractors lost work they loved, sometimes ending up without any income at all. Truckers, writers, photographers, and others filed multiple lawsuits against the state, and more than 30 cleanup or repeal bills were introduced in Sacramento. Even A.B. 5’s original sponsor introduced a bill to try to fix some of the damage her law had done.

Spooked by the California results as well as by local outcry, New Jersey lawmakers ended up withholding their support, and the legislation stalled. In New York, which had the benefit of watching California and New Jersey go first, there was enough concern about pushback that Gov. Andrew Cuomo, instead of giving full-throated support to that state’s version, tried to create a task force to study the issue (it failed to materialize before the pandemic hit).

But at the federal level, Democrats are still clinging to the original playbook. Presumptive presidential nominee Joe Biden has endorsed the idea, both tweeting his support for California’s A.B. 5 and saying he’ll make a federal version the law of the land if he wins the White House. He says California has “paved the way” to a better future for workers. The idea also has the support of prominent members of Congress, including Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D–Mass.), Sen. Bernie Sanders (I–Vt.), and most Democrats in the U.S. House of Representatives, which advanced the PRO Act in February.

They all say their stance is about protecting workers, even though California’s example has taught us that such regulations cripple huge swaths of the middle class, denying people the flexibility they want and the cash flow they need. And flexibility and cash flow will both be all the more important as COVID-19 forces many of us to change the way we work.

The legislation before the committee in New Jersey that day was built around something called the ABC Test. This three-question tool, which regulators use to determine whether a person is truly an independent contractor, requires that anyone doing work for a company be (A) free from the company’s control; (B) in a different line of business than the company; and (C) customarily engaged in the type of work, which is often interpreted as doing similar work for more than one company. If regulators feel that a person meets all three of the ABC prongs, then she can be classified as an independent contractor. If not, then a company that wants to hire her must treat her as an employee, or the state can slap the company with fines and penalties.

This ABC Test was created during the Great Depression in an effort to improve conditions for factory workers. It has been the standard in some states for decades, albeit in varying forms. Democrats often point to Massachusetts, which has had versions of the language on the books since the 1990s, as evidence that the ABC Test does not harm self-employed workers like the ones who have been protesting it in California, New Jersey, and New York.

But there’s a big difference between the system established in Massachusetts several decades ago and the one being advanced today: Politicians are now pushing regulators to interpret the ABC Test in a way that hurts independent contractors. In some states, for instance, the (B) prong of the test has two parts, saying the person can’t be in the same line of business as the company and can never work from the company’s office. That second provision allows freelance writers to sell articles to magazines, for example, as long as the writer never meets with an editor in the magazine’s office. It’s intended to stop “permalancing,” or having freelancers work in-house like staffers without treating them to the benefits enjoyed by employees—but it’s a demand that will sound crazy to any writer who takes an occasional in-person business meeting.

California truncated its (B) prong to remove the second part, which the PRO Act also does. But even without that second provision, no freelance writer can sell an article to a newspaper, magazine, or website editor. The writer and editor are both in the publishing business. They fail that prong of the test no matter where they do their work. So do musicians who hire other musicians to play a single gig at a club, or courts that hire interpreters to do a single Zoom call with a defendant who speaks a foreign language. In California right now, some college educators are reporting that the institutions where they teach must onboard guest speakers as employees, even if the speaker only spends an hour talking to students in a classroom.

And that’s just the (B) prong. The (A) and (C) prongs present their own sets of problems when you try to apply their 1930s-era language to the way people work in the year 2020.

The California bill, according to testimony there, was literally written by the AFL-CIO, which understands that it’s essentially impossible to unionize independent contractors; if independent workers deal together to set prices for work, they’re violating price-fixing laws. AFL-CIO chief Richard Trumka had this message for Democrats who don’t support the federal version of the legislation: “Do not ask the labor movement for a dollar or a door knock. We won’t be coming.”

In California and elsewhere, the main target in Democrats’ and union organizers’ sights is app-based companies such as Uber. Cuomo in January equated the entire gig economy with sweatshops of the early 1900s, saying everyone from rideshare drivers to newspaper carriers is being denied proper pay and benefits. He went so far as to compare Uber and its ilk to the Triangle Shirtwaist Factory, where a fire killed nearly 150 people in 1911. “As FDR, Al Smith, and Frances Perkins protected workers after the Triangle Shirtwaist Factory fire,” Cuomo said, “we too must protect workers from today’s threat, which is economic exploitation.”

The same message came from California Attorney General Xavier Becerra in early May, when that state sued Uber and Lyft. “Californians who drive for Uber and Lyft lack basic worker protections—from paid sick leave to the right to overtime pay,” he stated in a press release. “American taxpayers end up having to help carry the load that Uber and Lyft don’t want to accept. These companies will take the workers’ labor, but they won’t accept the worker protections. California has ground rules with rights and protections for workers and their employers. We intend to make sure that Uber and Lyft play by the rules.”

After A.B. 5 went into effect in January, those companies refused to reclassify their drivers as employees. Instead, they sued California to block enforcement of A.B. 5, calling the law unconstitutional and claiming that it violates, among other things, the “fundamental liberty” to work as an “independent service provider.” That lawsuit is still pending; in the meantime, Uber, Lyft, and other companies reportedly have invested more than $100 million in a campaign to get the issue on the ballot this fall. If enough voters agree, they hope to force California to classify app-based drivers as independent contractors, thus negating A.B. 5 for their industry.

For people like me, the bigger problem is that the app-based companies drawing lawmakers’ ire didn’t create the independent contractor business model, nor are they the only ones potentially harmed by legislation intended to stop it. In July 2019, researchers from the Internal Revenue Service, the Treasury Department, the University of Michigan, and New York University published a report on this segment of the U.S. workforce. They found that the share of workers with independent-contractor income was up 22 percent since 2001, “pre-dating the rise of the gig economy.”

The report also states that independent-contractor income is “not evenly distributed across workers,” tearing a huge hole in the argument that people classified as independent contractors are, as a rule, being exploited. The biggest chunk of self-employed people is in the top quartile of earnings, while the fastest-growing segment of self-employed people is in the bottom quartile. The new interpretation of the ABC Test can’t tell the difference between the bottom-rung Uber driver and a six-figure bandleader, even though they’re orders of magnitude different when it comes to financial insecurity and potential exploitation. Laws devised to protect one group could be disastrous for the other, not to mention many income levels in between.

Other studies have reached similar conclusions. ADP Research, an arm of one of the world’s largest payroll and human-resources services companies, released a report in February that identified “two worlds of gig workers.” The first type is skilled, older, highly educated, and choosing to work on what she enjoys. The second type is short-term, younger, less educated, seasonal, and on-call.

According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and McKinsey & Co., 70–80 percent of independent contractors prefer contract work to a traditional job and do not feel financially strapped. I fall into that category—but the crusaders behind laws such as A.B. 5 treat people like me as if we are invisible. Here in New Jersey, a July 2019 report from Gov. Phil Murphy’s Task Force on Misclassification was written by a group that included no independent contractors and drew on work by the National Employment Law Project, a think tank funded by the AFL-CIO and other unions. The report acknowledged that misclassification of workers as independent contractors was most prevalent in low-wage, labor-intensive sectors such as janitorial services. But the policy changes it recommended applied to independent contractors across the board.

California’s law is already prompting companies in other states to deny work to independent contractors for fear that those other states will start to interpret the ABC Test in the same strict way. As of April, for instance, Hearst—one of the largest magazine publishers in the world, with titles ranging from Esquire to Popular Mechanics to Good Housekeeping—was notifying residents of Alaska, Indiana, Massachusetts, and West Virginia that because their states had an ABC Test on the books, freelance writers who lived there could no longer contribute to any of the company’s publications.

And it could get worse. Consider the second prong of the ABC Test—the one that bars a business from hiring an independent contractor in the same line of work. A stay-at-home mom who works a few hours a day online, teaching English as a second language to kids in China, is in the same line of work as the education company she works for. An attorney who’s asked to lend expertise in a single big case is in the same line of work as the law firm that needs his limited help. And then there’s the little matter of COVID-19. All those doctors, nurses, and respiratory therapists crossing state lines to work shifts in overwhelmed hospitals? They are medical professionals, so they and the hospitals hiring them are in the same business. The PRO Act, if it goes through unamended, would make it illegal for them to help unless a hospital brought them on board as staff employees.

None of that sounds like protecting working people. It sounds like forcing independent workers into traditional jobs they don’t want, aren’t asking for, and have been resisting for years.

The anti-contractor crusaders have been retooling their talking points with COVID-19 in mind, but not because they’re reconsidering the costs their regulations could impose on society during a pandemic. Instead, they’re presenting their rules as a way to protect workers during the crisis.

On April 1, Sen. Warren highlighted the people “serving customers who cannot leave home during the pandemic,” calling on gig companies to reclassify them as employees to “ensure they are provided a full suite of employee protections and benefits.” That same day, instead of simply disbursing federal pandemic aid for out-of-work independent contractors, California’s Employment Development Department all but threatened to audit companies that hire them if the contractors applied for the benefits. “We hear you, #independentcontractors!” the agency tweeted. “We have a process to determine if you’ve been misclassified.”

A day later, New Jersey’s labor commissioner was asked about the process for independent contractors to apply through his office for federal pandemic aid. “We feel a lot of people who are independent contractors should be classified as employees,” he replied.

On April 8, some of the academics who had promoted the restrictive California law sent an open letter to all state unemployment agencies, demanding that they focus on reclassifying Uber and Lyft drivers as employees instead of simply disbursing the federal pandemic aid those workers were entitled to receive as independent contractors. The AFL-CIO also repackaged a number of its misclassification demands into something it called the “Labor Plan,” demanding benefits like paid sick leave and unemployment insurance for all workers.

Those benefits may sound good on paper, but they make zero sense for freelancers like me. Which of the dozen or more magazines and newspapers I write for should have to pay me sick leave? How would that time be accrued when I do not write for anyone by the hour, by the day, or on a salary? Am I unemployed if my regular clients need me to write less, but my income stays the same because I write more for other clients? There is no universe in which it’s rational for people like me to be classified as traditional employees. Changing labor laws in this way wouldn’t help us; it would do exactly what it has in California and at publishing houses such as Hearst: make our clients afraid to work with independent contractors at all.

It’s easy to fall in behind calls to better protect workers, especially the ones we see delivering food to our doors through services like Uber Eats and Grubhub. We are all grateful for the work of these people, whose contributions are now more pronounced in our daily lives. Of course we want them to have higher pay and the ability to stay home if they’re sick.

But when the calls come to “reclassify independent contractors as employees,” we also need to think about the many contractors who would be better off staying classified exactly the way we are. Some of us—such as the vast majority of truckers now keeping our nation’s supply chain moving in ways the public doesn’t see—are proving themselves essential during the pandemic too. At the Port of New York and New Jersey, a whopping 77 percent of truckers are independent contractors, a fact revealed in testimony that day in December at the New Jersey Statehouse. A lot of them were there too—they filled about half the room. Like me, they wanted lawmakers to leave them alone.

Fortunately, some of the lawmakers pushing these bills are backing down, at least partly. Following the disastrous fallout in California, Democratic Assemblywoman Lorena Gonzalez—A.B. 5’s original sponsor—has promised to revise the law with exemptions for freelance writers and others. If Twitter is any indication, the amendments won’t solve all the problems the law is causing. (Consider that this may be the first time since the Founders adopted the First Amendment that writers have actually needed an exemption from a labor law to be able to work freely anywhere in this country, with any publishers they choose, as often as they wish to write.) But it’s a start.

In New Jersey, support has been building in both parties not just to abandon the stalled ABC Test legislation but to shift the state entirely to the modern IRS Test. Written in the 1980s and updated since then, the IRS Test is far more robust and detailed than the ABC Test’s three basic questions; it’s much more likely to give regulators enough information to determine the difference between a $10-an-hour delivery driver and a six-figure musician.

If New Jersey politicians need reassurance that they’ll have a fight on their hands should they choose to revert to the previous game plan, they need only look to New York City. There, in late April, lawmakers introduced a bill similar to California’s A.B. 5, saying it would protect gig workers. The outcry from independent contractors was so loud that the bill’s supporters are now replying to freelancer complaints with a form letter promising to write better exemptions for entire swaths of the economy so that “the same mistakes made in California will not be repeated here.”

The pandemic has made me more grateful than ever to be able to earn my living as an independent contractor. I’m my own boss, and that means no one can force me to go into a situation I feel is unsafe. I was already set up to work from a home office, so I required no adjustment period to maintain productivity. Having multiple streams of income from multiple companies, instead of a single salary that can be wiped out all at once, continues to make me feel more financially secure. And yes, I have health insurance.

Financial security isn’t determined by whether you’re a traditional employee or an independent contractor. It’s determined by things like earning enough to have a savings account and having the ability to stay home when you’re sick. Those things can be, and are being, achieved by employees and independent contractors alike.

That much was vividly evident the day we testified before the New Jersey Senate’s Labor Committee. Independent contractors by the busload stood up and said so. After coming to understand that reality, Sen. Greenstein strongly urged her fellow Democrats not to rush headlong into a mistake. “With something this important,” she said, “a little time needs to be taken to be absolutely certain that we’re doing the right thing.”

Sen. Lagana backed her up with a call to support, not harm, the working people that our leaders are supposed to represent. “We have to do our best job to ensure that those traditionally independent classes of employees will remain independent,” he said, “and that those who wish to remain independent, that their voices can’t be stifled.”

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I Don’t Want To Be Anybody’s Employee

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Linda Greenstein and Joseph Lagana looked pained. The two New Jersey legislators knew their seats on the Labor Committee existed at the pleasure of the state Senate’s president, Steve Sweeney, who has a habit of removing his fellow Democrats from powerful positions if he doesn’t like their votes. Greenstein and Lagana had one job on December 5, 2019: back a bill that Sweeney had sponsored. And they did that job. But when the moment came to cast their votes and move the bill out of committee, each came close to apologizing.

The bill, which would have reclassified many independent contractors as traditional salaried employees, was promoted as a way to protect low-wage workers whose companies were cheating them out of salaries and benefits. But Greenstein and Lagana had just spent four hours listening to testimony from working mothers, senior citizens, African Americans, Hispanics, and suburban women—key parts of their party’s base—who said the legislation would instead destroy their chosen careers. The standing-room-only crowd that had come to testify against the bill included teachers, writers, bakers, lawyers, musicians, photographers, and truck drivers. It also included me: The bill threatened the stream of freelance writing and editing income I’d spent the past 17 years building.

“We heard an amazing—what I consider an amazing—amount of opposition,” Greenstein told the crowd, adding that the bill was the most confusing she has encountered in her two decades in the New Jersey Legislature. She ultimately voted yes, but she acknowledged for the public record that the legislation needed work: “I think that somebody used the term ‘unintended consequences,’ and it may be that that’s what’s going on here.”

State and federal lawmakers across America need to understand what those blue-state Democrats learned that day—and the Democratic Party needs to amend its labor platform accordingly. The debate we were having in New Jersey shortly before COVID-19 struck will be of critical importance for the entire American economy if we intend to climb out of the post-pandemic economic wreckage.

The Democratic Party had been planning to roll out bills like this across the country, hoping to compel companies to hire more people as employees with benefits instead of as independent contractors who get cash-only pay. The push started in California, where Gov. Gavin Newsom signed its version of the legislation—A.B. 5—into law in September 2019. Similar legislation was introduced around the same time in New Jersey and New York. On the federal level, language along the same lines was added to the proposed Protecting the Right to Organize (PRO) Act.

But the rollout didn’t go as planned. When A.B. 5 took effect in California on January 1, we didn’t see hundreds of companies convert independent contractors into employees. Instead, thousands of independent contractors lost work they loved, sometimes ending up without any income at all. Truckers, writers, photographers, and others filed multiple lawsuits against the state, and more than 30 cleanup or repeal bills were introduced in Sacramento. Even A.B. 5’s original sponsor introduced a bill to try to fix some of the damage her law had done.

Spooked by the California results as well as by local outcry, New Jersey lawmakers ended up withholding their support, and the legislation stalled. In New York, which had the benefit of watching California and New Jersey go first, there was enough concern about pushback that Gov. Andrew Cuomo, instead of giving full-throated support to that state’s version, tried to create a task force to study the issue (it failed to materialize before the pandemic hit).

But at the federal level, Democrats are still clinging to the original playbook. Presumptive presidential nominee Joe Biden has endorsed the idea, both tweeting his support for California’s A.B. 5 and saying he’ll make a federal version the law of the land if he wins the White House. He says California has “paved the way” to a better future for workers. The idea also has the support of prominent members of Congress, including Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D–Mass.), Sen. Bernie Sanders (I–Vt.), and most Democrats in the U.S. House of Representatives, which advanced the PRO Act in February.

They all say their stance is about protecting workers, even though California’s example has taught us that such regulations cripple huge swaths of the middle class, denying people the flexibility they want and the cash flow they need. And flexibility and cash flow will both be all the more important as COVID-19 forces many of us to change the way we work.

The legislation before the committee in New Jersey that day was built around something called the ABC Test. This three-question tool, which regulators use to determine whether a person is truly an independent contractor, requires that anyone doing work for a company be (A) free from the company’s control; (B) in a different line of business than the company; and (C) customarily engaged in the type of work, which is often interpreted as doing similar work for more than one company. If regulators feel that a person meets all three of the ABC prongs, then she can be classified as an independent contractor. If not, then a company that wants to hire her must treat her as an employee, or the state can slap the company with fines and penalties.

This ABC Test was created during the Great Depression in an effort to improve conditions for factory workers. It has been the standard in some states for decades, albeit in varying forms. Democrats often point to Massachusetts, which has had versions of the language on the books since the 1990s, as evidence that the ABC Test does not harm self-employed workers like the ones who have been protesting it in California, New Jersey, and New York.

But there’s a big difference between the system established in Massachusetts several decades ago and the one being advanced today: Politicians are now pushing regulators to interpret the ABC Test in a way that hurts independent contractors. In some states, for instance, the (B) prong of the test has two parts, saying the person can’t be in the same line of business as the company and can never work from the company’s office. That second provision allows freelance writers to sell articles to magazines, for example, as long as the writer never meets with an editor in the magazine’s office. It’s intended to stop “permalancing,” or having freelancers work in-house like staffers without treating them to the benefits enjoyed by employees—but it’s a demand that will sound crazy to any writer who takes an occasional in-person business meeting.

California truncated its (B) prong to remove the second part, which the PRO Act also does. But even without that second provision, no freelance writer can sell an article to a newspaper, magazine, or website editor. The writer and editor are both in the publishing business. They fail that prong of the test no matter where they do their work. So do musicians who hire other musicians to play a single gig at a club, or courts that hire interpreters to do a single Zoom call with a defendant who speaks a foreign language. In California right now, some college educators are reporting that the institutions where they teach must onboard guest speakers as employees, even if the speaker only spends an hour talking to students in a classroom.

And that’s just the (B) prong. The (A) and (C) prongs present their own sets of problems when you try to apply their 1930s-era language to the way people work in the year 2020.

The California bill, according to testimony there, was literally written by the AFL-CIO, which understands that it’s essentially impossible to unionize independent contractors; if independent workers deal together to set prices for work, they’re violating price-fixing laws. AFL-CIO chief Richard Trumka had this message for Democrats who don’t support the federal version of the legislation: “Do not ask the labor movement for a dollar or a door knock. We won’t be coming.”

In California and elsewhere, the main target in Democrats’ and union organizers’ sights is app-based companies such as Uber. Cuomo in January equated the entire gig economy with sweatshops of the early 1900s, saying everyone from rideshare drivers to newspaper carriers is being denied proper pay and benefits. He went so far as to compare Uber and its ilk to the Triangle Shirtwaist Factory, where a fire killed nearly 150 people in 1911. “As FDR, Al Smith, and Frances Perkins protected workers after the Triangle Shirtwaist Factory fire,” Cuomo said, “we too must protect workers from today’s threat, which is economic exploitation.”

The same message came from California Attorney General Xavier Becerra in early May, when that state sued Uber and Lyft. “Californians who drive for Uber and Lyft lack basic worker protections—from paid sick leave to the right to overtime pay,” he stated in a press release. “American taxpayers end up having to help carry the load that Uber and Lyft don’t want to accept. These companies will take the workers’ labor, but they won’t accept the worker protections. California has ground rules with rights and protections for workers and their employers. We intend to make sure that Uber and Lyft play by the rules.”

After A.B. 5 went into effect in January, those companies refused to reclassify their drivers as employees. Instead, they sued California to block enforcement of A.B. 5, calling the law unconstitutional and claiming that it violates, among other things, the “fundamental liberty” to work as an “independent service provider.” That lawsuit is still pending; in the meantime, Uber, Lyft, and other companies reportedly have invested more than $100 million in a campaign to get the issue on the ballot this fall. If enough voters agree, they hope to force California to classify app-based drivers as independent contractors, thus negating A.B. 5 for their industry.

For people like me, the bigger problem is that the app-based companies drawing lawmakers’ ire didn’t create the independent contractor business model, nor are they the only ones potentially harmed by legislation intended to stop it. In July 2019, researchers from the Internal Revenue Service, the Treasury Department, the University of Michigan, and New York University published a report on this segment of the U.S. workforce. They found that the share of workers with independent-contractor income was up 22 percent since 2001, “pre-dating the rise of the gig economy.”

The report also states that independent-contractor income is “not evenly distributed across workers,” tearing a huge hole in the argument that people classified as independent contractors are, as a rule, being exploited. The biggest chunk of self-employed people is in the top quartile of earnings, while the fastest-growing segment of self-employed people is in the bottom quartile. The new interpretation of the ABC Test can’t tell the difference between the bottom-rung Uber driver and a six-figure bandleader, even though they’re orders of magnitude different when it comes to financial insecurity and potential exploitation. Laws devised to protect one group could be disastrous for the other, not to mention many income levels in between.

Other studies have reached similar conclusions. ADP Research, an arm of one of the world’s largest payroll and human-resources services companies, released a report in February that identified “two worlds of gig workers.” The first type is skilled, older, highly educated, and choosing to work on what she enjoys. The second type is short-term, younger, less educated, seasonal, and on-call.

According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and McKinsey & Co., 70–80 percent of independent contractors prefer contract work to a traditional job and do not feel financially strapped. I fall into that category—but the crusaders behind laws such as A.B. 5 treat people like me as if we are invisible. Here in New Jersey, a July 2019 report from Gov. Phil Murphy’s Task Force on Misclassification was written by a group that included no independent contractors and drew on work by the National Employment Law Project, a think tank funded by the AFL-CIO and other unions. The report acknowledged that misclassification of workers as independent contractors was most prevalent in low-wage, labor-intensive sectors such as janitorial services. But the policy changes it recommended applied to independent contractors across the board.

California’s law is already prompting companies in other states to deny work to independent contractors for fear that those other states will start to interpret the ABC Test in the same strict way. As of April, for instance, Hearst—one of the largest magazine publishers in the world, with titles ranging from Esquire to Popular Mechanics to Good Housekeeping—was notifying residents of Alaska, Indiana, Massachusetts, and West Virginia that because their states had an ABC Test on the books, freelance writers who lived there could no longer contribute to any of the company’s publications.

And it could get worse. Consider the second prong of the ABC Test—the one that bars a business from hiring an independent contractor in the same line of work. A stay-at-home mom who works a few hours a day online, teaching English as a second language to kids in China, is in the same line of work as the education company she works for. An attorney who’s asked to lend expertise in a single big case is in the same line of work as the law firm that needs his limited help. And then there’s the little matter of COVID-19. All those doctors, nurses, and respiratory therapists crossing state lines to work shifts in overwhelmed hospitals? They are medical professionals, so they and the hospitals hiring them are in the same business. The PRO Act, if it goes through unamended, would make it illegal for them to help unless a hospital brought them on board as staff employees.

None of that sounds like protecting working people. It sounds like forcing independent workers into traditional jobs they don’t want, aren’t asking for, and have been resisting for years.

The anti-contractor crusaders have been retooling their talking points with COVID-19 in mind, but not because they’re reconsidering the costs their regulations could impose on society during a pandemic. Instead, they’re presenting their rules as a way to protect workers during the crisis.

On April 1, Sen. Warren highlighted the people “serving customers who cannot leave home during the pandemic,” calling on gig companies to reclassify them as employees to “ensure they are provided a full suite of employee protections and benefits.” That same day, instead of simply disbursing federal pandemic aid for out-of-work independent contractors, California’s Employment Development Department all but threatened to audit companies that hire them if the contractors applied for the benefits. “We hear you, #independentcontractors!” the agency tweeted. “We have a process to determine if you’ve been misclassified.”

A day later, New Jersey’s labor commissioner was asked about the process for independent contractors to apply through his office for federal pandemic aid. “We feel a lot of people who are independent contractors should be classified as employees,” he replied.

On April 8, some of the academics who had promoted the restrictive California law sent an open letter to all state unemployment agencies, demanding that they focus on reclassifying Uber and Lyft drivers as employees instead of simply disbursing the federal pandemic aid those workers were entitled to receive as independent contractors. The AFL-CIO also repackaged a number of its misclassification demands into something it called the “Labor Plan,” demanding benefits like paid sick leave and unemployment insurance for all workers.

Those benefits may sound good on paper, but they make zero sense for freelancers like me. Which of the dozen or more magazines and newspapers I write for should have to pay me sick leave? How would that time be accrued when I do not write for anyone by the hour, by the day, or on a salary? Am I unemployed if my regular clients need me to write less, but my income stays the same because I write more for other clients? There is no universe in which it’s rational for people like me to be classified as traditional employees. Changing labor laws in this way wouldn’t help us; it would do exactly what it has in California and at publishing houses such as Hearst: make our clients afraid to work with independent contractors at all.

It’s easy to fall in behind calls to better protect workers, especially the ones we see delivering food to our doors through services like Uber Eats and Grubhub. We are all grateful for the work of these people, whose contributions are now more pronounced in our daily lives. Of course we want them to have higher pay and the ability to stay home if they’re sick.

But when the calls come to “reclassify independent contractors as employees,” we also need to think about the many contractors who would be better off staying classified exactly the way we are. Some of us—such as the vast majority of truckers now keeping our nation’s supply chain moving in ways the public doesn’t see—are proving themselves essential during the pandemic too. At the Port of New York and New Jersey, a whopping 77 percent of truckers are independent contractors, a fact revealed in testimony that day in December at the New Jersey Statehouse. A lot of them were there too—they filled about half the room. Like me, they wanted lawmakers to leave them alone.

Fortunately, some of the lawmakers pushing these bills are backing down, at least partly. Following the disastrous fallout in California, Democratic Assemblywoman Lorena Gonzalez—A.B. 5’s original sponsor—has promised to revise the law with exemptions for freelance writers and others. If Twitter is any indication, the amendments won’t solve all the problems the law is causing. (Consider that this may be the first time since the Founders adopted the First Amendment that writers have actually needed an exemption from a labor law to be able to work freely anywhere in this country, with any publishers they choose, as often as they wish to write.) But it’s a start.

In New Jersey, support has been building in both parties not just to abandon the stalled ABC Test legislation but to shift the state entirely to the modern IRS Test. Written in the 1980s and updated since then, the IRS Test is far more robust and detailed than the ABC Test’s three basic questions; it’s much more likely to give regulators enough information to determine the difference between a $10-an-hour delivery driver and a six-figure musician.

If New Jersey politicians need reassurance that they’ll have a fight on their hands should they choose to revert to the previous game plan, they need only look to New York City. There, in late April, lawmakers introduced a bill similar to California’s A.B. 5, saying it would protect gig workers. The outcry from independent contractors was so loud that the bill’s supporters are now replying to freelancer complaints with a form letter promising to write better exemptions for entire swaths of the economy so that “the same mistakes made in California will not be repeated here.”

The pandemic has made me more grateful than ever to be able to earn my living as an independent contractor. I’m my own boss, and that means no one can force me to go into a situation I feel is unsafe. I was already set up to work from a home office, so I required no adjustment period to maintain productivity. Having multiple streams of income from multiple companies, instead of a single salary that can be wiped out all at once, continues to make me feel more financially secure. And yes, I have health insurance.

Financial security isn’t determined by whether you’re a traditional employee or an independent contractor. It’s determined by things like earning enough to have a savings account and having the ability to stay home when you’re sick. Those things can be, and are being, achieved by employees and independent contractors alike.

That much was vividly evident the day we testified before the New Jersey Senate’s Labor Committee. Independent contractors by the busload stood up and said so. After coming to understand that reality, Sen. Greenstein strongly urged her fellow Democrats not to rush headlong into a mistake. “With something this important,” she said, “a little time needs to be taken to be absolutely certain that we’re doing the right thing.”

Sen. Lagana backed her up with a call to support, not harm, the working people that our leaders are supposed to represent. “We have to do our best job to ensure that those traditionally independent classes of employees will remain independent,” he said, “and that those who wish to remain independent, that their voices can’t be stifled.”

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