Thoughts on the Supreme Court’s Sound, but Very Narrow Ruling on DACA

DACA

 

Today’s Supreme Court ruling is a victory for DACA recipients, but a very limited one. The Supreme Court correctly concluded that the Trump administration’s shoddy rationale for rescinding DACA violated the Administrative Procedure Act because it failed to offer any justification for repealing the central element of the DACA program: forbearance on deportation of undocumented immigrants who were brought to the United States as children. But Trump or a future president could still rescind DACA if they are willing to offer such a justification in the future and pay the political price of doing so. For that reason, I strongly agree with co-blogger Jonathan Adler’s view that this is a very narrow decision.

Today’s ruling does not definitively end either the legal or the political battle over DACA. Ultimately, only Congress can do that, by finally passing a law definitively protecting “Dreamers” from deportation and giving them permanent resident status in the United States. Until then, they will not be fully safe.

The Court’s decision addresses the legality of the Trump administration’s decision to rescind DACA, an Obama administration policy suspending deportation of some 800,000 undocumented immigrants who came to the United States as children. DACA allows such migrants (often referred to as “Dreamers,” after the Dream Act, which failed to pass Congress) to stay in the U.S. as long as they arrived in the  country when they were 15 years old or younger, were 30 or younger when the program began in 2012, have not been convicted of any crimes as of the time they apply for the program, and have either graduated from a U.S. high school, are currently enrolled in school, or have served in the armed forces. In addition to suspending deportation, the program also allows DACA recipients to obtain authorization for work in the US and accrue “lawful presence.”

The majority opinion by Chief Justice John Roberts concludes that the administration’s rescission of DACA was illegal, because it violated the Administrative Procedure Act’s requirement that federal agency decisions may not be “arbitrary and capricious.” As Roberts recognizes, this is a very permissive standard. But, in this case, the Department of Homeland Security fell short of it because its rationale for ending DACA relied on the notion that the program’s work authorization and law presence provisions are illegal, while failing to offer any justification for abolishing its central feature—”forbearance” from deportation:

In short, the Attorney General [in his opinion on the legality of DACA] neither addressed the forbearance policy at the heart of DACA nor compelled DHS to abandon that policy. Thus, removing benefits eligibility while continuing forbearance remained squarely within the discretion of Acting Secretary Duke, who was responsible for “[e]stablishing national immigration enforcement policies and priorities.” 116 Stat. 2178, 6 U. S. C. §202(5). But Duke’s memo offers no reason for terminating forbearance. She instead treated the Attorney General’s conclusion regarding the illegality of benefits as sufficient to rescind both benefits and forbearance, without explanation….

Even if it is illegal for DHS to extend work authorization and other benefits to DACA recipients, that conclusion supported only “disallow[ing]” benefits…. It did “not cast doubt” on the legality of forbearance or upon DHS’s original reasons for extending forbearance to childhood arrivals….Thus, given DHS’s earlier judgment that forbearance is “especially justified” for “productive young people” who were brought here as children and “know only this country as home,” App. to Pet. for Cert. 98a–99a, the DACA Memorandum could not be rescinded in full “without any consideration whatsoever” of a forbearance-only policy,

If anything qualifies as “arbitrary and capricious,” it is failure to provide a rationale for repealing the policy “at the heart” of the program the administration wanted to rescind.

The Department of Homeland Security did offer some policy rationales for rescinding forbearance on deportation in a memorandum issued many months after its initial decision to rescind. However, the Court concludes that the APA requires the agency to put forward its reasons at the time a policy change is made. Thus, the arguments in the later DHS memorandum “can be viewed only as impermissible post hoc rationalizations and thus are not properly before us.”

The requirement of a contemporaneous explanation may seem like arbitrary formalism. But the Court points out some good reasons for it:

Requiring a new decision before considering new reasons promotes “agency accountability,” Bowen v. American Hospital Assn., 476 U. S. 610, 643 (1986), by ensuring that parties and the public can respond fully and in a timely manner to an agency’s exercise of authority. Considering only contemporaneous explanations for agency action also instills confidence that the reasons given are not simply “convenient litigating position[s].” Christopher v. Smith Kline Beecham Corp., 567 U. S. 142, 155 (2012)…. Permitting agencies to invoke belated justifications, on the other hand, can upset “the orderly functioning of the process of review,” SEC v. Chenery Corp., 318 U. S. 80, 94 (1943), forcing both litigants and courts to chase a moving target. Each of these values would be markedly undermined were we to allow DHS to rely on reasons offered nine months after [Acting Secretary] Duke announced the rescission and after three different courts had identified flaws in the original explanation.

The majority opinion also concludes that the administration failed to properly consider the “reliance interests” of DACA recipients, in making its rescission decision.

In the lead dissent, Justice Clarence Thomas, joined by Alito and Gorsuch, argues that DACA was illegal, and that provides sufficient justification for rescission. But even he does not deny that the forbearance element of DACA was legal. That makes it impossible to justify repealing it merely on the basis that other parts of DACA were not.

In a solo dissent, Justice Brett Kavanaugh contended that the Court should have accepted the later DHS memorandum, because “post hoc” rationales are only forbidden when offered by lawyers in litigation, not when developed by the administration. The majority has what I think is a good response to that argument:

JUSTICE KAVANAUGH asserts that this “foundational principle of administrative law,” Michigan, 576 U. S., at 758, actually limits only what lawyers may argue, not what agencies may do…. While it is true that the Court has often rejected justifications belatedly advanced by advocates, we refer to this as a prohibition on post hoc rationalizations, not advocate rationalizations, because the problem is the timing, not the speaker. The functional reasons for requiring contemporaneous explanations apply with equal force regardless whether post hoc justifications are raised in court by those appearing on behalf of the agency or by agency officials themselves.

The Court’s decision strikes me as correct, in so far as it goes. But it is a very narrow ruling. It does not prevent Trump or a future president from rescinding DACA in the future. Indeed, as a legal matter, doing so would be relatively easy. All Trump would have to do is have DHS issue a new rescission memorandum that explicitly cites some policy rationale for abolishing forbearance on deportation. Alternatively, it could potentially abolish employment authorization and “lawful presence,” while leaving forbearance alone.

In my view, deporting the DACA recipients would be both deeply unjust and harmful to our economy and society. But satisfying the APA’s “arbitrary and capricious” standard does not require a good or even reasonable justification. It just has to meet very minimal standards of plausibility. Competent DHS staff could almost certainly come up with something that qualifies.

The main constraint on the administration’s options here is political, not legal. DACA is a very popular program, and even a president as hostile to immigration as Trump might not want to abolish it in a way that requires the administration to explicitly say they want to deport the Dreamers, as opposed to hiding behind technical legal arguments. Perhaps the administration is unwilling to pay that political price, especially in an election year.

Political considerations aside, the narrowness of the ruling and the ease with which the administration could potentially get around it should allay concerns that the decision will make it difficult for future presidents to reverse predecessor’s executive actions. They can still do so as long as they meet fairly minimal procedural standards.

The Supreme Court majority opinion also does not resolve the issue of whether the employment authorization and lawful presence elements of DACA are legal or not. These questions may well continue to be litigated in the lower courts.  I have previously argued that the employment authorization provision is clearly legal, while the “lawful presence” provision is more questionable, but can easily—if necessary- be severed from the rest of DACA. But these issues remain unsettled, and could even potentially return to the Supreme Court, should DACA remain in force under Trump—or should a future administration reinstate DACA after Trump rescinds it again.

Finally, an 8-1 majority of the justices (with only Sonia Sotomayor dissenting) rejected the plaintiffs’ argument that DACA rescission was unconstitutional because it was motivated by discriminatory animus against Hispanic immigrants, and therefore violated the Equal Protection Clause of the Fourteenth Amendment.

I think Justice Sotomayor makes some good points in her solo dissent on this issue. She is correct to argue that, under Supreme Court precedent, Trump’s bigoted statements against Latino immigrants during the 2016 election provide evidence of discriminatory motive that shifts the burden of proof to the government—requiring them to show they would have enacted the same policy even aside from the illegal motivation. But, here, I don’t think it would be difficult to prove that.

The belief that DACA is illegal is a longstanding and widely held view among conservative Republicans. It is not something that arose merely as a justification for acting on bigoted statements Trump made during the 2016 campaign. I think that view is wrong. But that doesn’t make it a mere pretext for bigotry. Had a more conventional Republican won the 2016 election—even one who is himself Hispanic, such as Ted Cruz or Marco Rubio—there is a good chance they would have tried to rescind DACA, as well.

This history makes DACA repeal different from the 2018 travel ban case, where the policy at issue clearly grew out of Trump’s notorious campaign promise to enact a “Muslim ban,” the official justification for it was transparently bogus, and it is highly unlikely that anything like it would have been enacted in the absence of Trump’s unconstitutional motive. The Court was disastrously wrong about the discrimination issue in the travel ban case. But it is on much sounder ground here.

I am not entirely sure even Justice Sotomayor would actually conclude that DACA repeal is unconstitutional based on discriminatory motivation. Her opinion merely concludes that the issue should have been remanded for further consideration by the trial court, at which point the administration could  potentially have addressed the issue by making the sort of argument I described above.

In sum, today’s ruling is an importan, but very limited victory for DACA and the Dreamers. The latter have reason to celebrate. But their safety still remains in doubt. Trump or a future president could still potentially rescind DACA, and today’s decision creates little in the way of legal obstacles to doing so. Only congressional action can truly free the Dreamers from the spectre of deportation.

 

 

 

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Oregon County Imposes Race-Based Mask Requirements

From Lincoln County, Oregon:

Face Covering Directive
Order 6/17/2020—Face Covering Directive (signed directive in Supporting Documents—below)

General directive: All individualis in Lincoln County are required to wear face coverings during any indoor public setting or outdoor public location where a person will be in within six feet of another individual, who does not share the same household.

Exceptions:

  • Persons with health/medical conditions that preclude or are exacerbated by wearing a face covering.
  • Children under the age of 12. Children over the age of 2 but under the age of 12 are encouraged to wear face coverings but not required to do so.
  • Persons with disabilities that prevents them from using the face covering as described in this Directive. These persons must be reasonably accommodated to allow them access to goods and services.
  • People of color who have heightened concerns about racial profiling and harassment due to wearing face coverings in public.

I appreciate the concern about racial profiling, but, no, it can’t justify having one law for “people of color” and another for whites; such a race-based classification violates the Equal Protection Clause. Thanks to Luke Thiesen for the pointer.

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Oregon County Imposes Race-Based Mask Requirements

From Lincoln County, Oregon:

Face Covering Directive
Order 6/17/2020—Face Covering Directive (signed directive in Supporting Documents—below)

General directive: All individualis in Lincoln County are required to wear face coverings during any indoor public setting or outdoor public location where a person will be in within six feet of another individual, who does not share the same household.

Exceptions:

  • Persons with health/medical conditions that preclude or are exacerbated by wearing a face covering.
  • Children under the age of 12. Children over the age of 2 but under the age of 12 are encouraged to wear face coverings but not required to do so.
  • Persons with disabilities that prevents them from using the face covering as described in this Directive. These persons must be reasonably accommodated to allow them access to goods and services.
  • People of color who have heightened concerns about racial profiling and harassment due to wearing face coverings in public.

I appreciate the concern about racial profiling, but, no, it can’t justify having one law for “people of color” and another for whites; such a race-based classification violates the Equal Protection Clause.

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“Welcome To CHAZ” Tourism Video Goes Viral

“Welcome To CHAZ” Tourism Video Goes Viral

Tyler Durden

Thu, 06/18/2020 – 13:15

Sometimes you just have to laugh…

“Are you sick of living in capitalist America? Sick of your freedoms and rights? And security and due process? Well, come on down to CHAZ…”

h/t Turning Point USA’s Benny Johnson for this ‘hilarious’ satirical clip.

On a more serious note(ish), @4KGamer notes that CHAZ has done many Americans a big favor is exposing many truths about the far-left:

  • They believe in gun ownership

  • They believe in having strong borders

  • They believe in walls

  • They believe in segregation

  • They believe in having a strong police force

  • They believe in deporting people

  • They believe it’s ok to steal land

Progressive? Who would have known?

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When Will US Shale Rebound To Pre-Pandemic Levels?

When Will US Shale Rebound To Pre-Pandemic Levels?

Tyler Durden

Thu, 06/18/2020 – 13:00

Authored by Nick Cunningham via OilPrice.com,

The rebalancing of the oil market has been possible, in part, due to the sharp cutbacks in U.S. shale production. But what happens next for the industry? 

The latest data from the EIA estimates that production plunged by a colossal 600,000 bpd in the week ending on June 12, a massive decline that puts output down more than 2.6 million barrels per day (mb/d) from the weekly peak hit in mid-March (to be sure, monthly EIA data shows the U.S. hit a slightly lower peak in November 2019).

At the same time, the industry is bringing shuttered production back online. Reuters says that 500,000 bpd of shut-in production could be restored by the end of June. For instance, Devon Energy shut in about 10,000 bpd in recent weeks, but is “in the process of bringing all of that back on,” Devon Energy CEO David Hager said at a JPMorgan conference on Tuesday, according to Reuters.

Analysts have varying perspectives on what happens next for shale drilling. According to Morgan Stanley, the industry will proceed in three phases. First, shut-in wells come back online. Then production stabilizes, but an average of $40 per barrel will be needed for that to occur. Finally, production growth resumes, assuming prices move back up to $50 per barrel. 

However, there is “little room for US production to grow this year or next,” Morgan Stanley cautioned, noting that if output began to rise, it would merely derail the oil price rally. The capex cuts announced to date should translate into production declines of 1.8-1.9 million barrels per day by the end of 2020, compared to the end of 2019. 

The bank said that the shale industry will need two years or so of WTI averaging at least $50 per barrel in order for shale output to rebound to pre-Covid 19 levels.

“Some level of growth would likely come back quickly in the first year, and moderate thereafter without higher investment due to the reversal of temporary cost reductions, depletion of drilled-but-uncompleted (DUC) well inventory, and rising base declines,” the bank concluded. 

JBC Energy forecasts WTI averaging $40 per barrel for the rest of the year.

“Under this assumption we see completed wells having reached their nadir of below 200 in May with a gradual recovery to 700 by the end of the year and 1,000 by end-2021,” the firm wrote in a note. 

If prices actually averaged between $45 and $50 per barrel, which would require better compliance from OPEC+ to their cuts, then it would be a “turning point” for U.S. shale, the firm argued. Shale output would reach an “inflection point” in November 2020, and see a “swift recovery thereafter,” JBC said. A year later, U.S. shale output would be back to pre-pandemic levels.

That is a more optimistic scenario. JBC’s base case calls for U.S. shale to take until September 2023 to return to peak production levels last seen earlier this year. But “[c]onsidering current sentiment…we would tend to see the risk to our shale supply base case skewed to the upside,” JBC wrote. 

Others are more pessimistic, noting that both oil and broader financial markets are getting a little frothy. “[T]he rally across commodities has gotten ahead of fundamentals with the exception of metals,” Goldman Sachs wrote in a June 9 report. 

They are not alone. “We think the oil market is not currently pricing in a significant probability of either second waves of coronavirus cases in key consumers and the associated lock-downs, or anything less than a rapid return to economic business-as-usual,” Standard Chartered wrote in a June 16 report. “We think this absence of shades of grey represents a downside risk to prices medium-term, but short-term, unnuanced hope is proving to be a powerful force supporting prices.”

The bank went on to criticize media representations of the oil market as “tight,” adding that “[w]e do not think a market with more than a billion barrels of excess inventories and more than 10 million barrels per day (mb/d) of spare capacity in OPEC+ can be described as tight.” While global supply may fall below demand in the coming months, it would take roughly two years to bring inventories back to the five-year average, the bank noted. 

Meanwhile, many U.S. shale companies are drowning in debt. Just a few days ago, Extraction Oil & Gas, a large shale driller in Colorado, declared bankruptcy. Chesapeake Energy, which arguably best represents the debt-driven shale bonanza, is expected to file for bankruptcy any day now. The Chapter 11s, and even the “Chapter 22s” – a nickname for those that are set to declare bankruptcy for the second time – are expected to continue to rise. 

All the while, steep decline rates will likely more than overwhelm any new drilling that takes place. Oil prices have bounced off of April lows, but U.S. shale is far from a comeback. 

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Tesla Model 3 In China Goes Up In Flames Due To “Unresponsive Brake System”

Tesla Model 3 In China Goes Up In Flames Due To “Unresponsive Brake System”

Tyler Durden

Thu, 06/18/2020 – 12:40

A Tesla Model 3 travelling through China reportedly crashed at high speeds and caught fire as a result of a braking system failure, according to USA Today and Chinese media outlet Sina

The vehicle was reportedly traveling at 127 km/h before the driver lost control due to the braking system failure. As of now, it is unknown whether or not the driver survived the wreck. 

Internet users are speculating that “a system upgrade automatically started while the car was driving” but no definitive cause of the crash has been confirmed yet. 

This is the latest in a long line of articles we have posted about various Teslas catching fire for various reasons. 

In January of this year, we wrote about a Tesla battery that reignited after a driver was killed following a vehicle “bursting into flames” in California. 

Back in October 2019, the NHTSA finally stated that they would be looking into the vehicle’s battery fire issues, though nothing material seems to have come from the investigation so far. 

In September 2019, we reported that a Tesla in Sweden’s passenger seat caught fire without there ever being an accident. “The car started to burn by itself,” the report says. 

 

In June of 2019, we reported about a Tesla that spontaneously combusted while plugged into a Supercharger. 

“The driver of the car had parked it at a so-called ‘Supercharger’, a fast charging station, at the Novotel at Luithagen-Haven. When he returned a little later, his Tesla and the supercharger were lit up. Possibly there was a technical problem before charging.”

 

In May of 2019, we reported about another Tesla spontaneously combusting in Hong Kong. 

About 10 days before that, we wrote about an unplugged Tesla that caught fire in a San Francisco garage, prompting an investigation from authorities. The San Francisco Fire Department responded to a reported car fire at a home on the 1300 block of 26th Avenue near Irving Street. The crews saw “smoke near the rear right tire of a Tesla Model S” that was not plugged in at the time and put out the fire.

 

It was two weeks prior to the San Francisco fire that a stunning video surfaced of a Tesla catching fire and exploding, while parked, in China.

 

The same car had previously caught fire back in February in a garage around the same area, according to CBS 2 Pittsburgh. It was being towed to a new shop and “somehow” caught fire again, despite the fact that a Tesla engineer tried to reduce the risk of fire by removing the fuse from the battery pack prior to transporting the vehicle.

Probably all just a coincidence. Anyways, we’re sure the NHTSA is on top of it.

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The Washington Post’s Halloween Costume Hit Job Is a New Low for Cancel Culture

Washington_Post_building

A few years ago, something mildly embarrassing occurred at a Halloween party hosted by a Washington Post cartoonist: A white woman painted her face black and wore a name tag that read “Hello, My Name is Megyn Kelly,” in reference to the TV host’s controversial defense of white people wearing blackface. The intended butt of the joke would appear to be Kelly, not black people. Regardless, several guests approached the woman and explained to her that it was still not OK to wear blackface. The woman reportedly left the party in tears.

Suffice it to say, this is not a story that needed to be told. The woman is not famous, she does not appear to hold any power, and is not seeking public office. But because two of the aggrieved guests—a pair of young, progressive women—are still raw about it, and because we are living through a moment where no single person’s humiliation is too trivial to earn them a reprieve from the forces of cancel culture, a pair of reporters have exhaustively chronicled the incident in a 3,000-word article for…The Washington Post.

Brace yourself before diving in, because this is one of the worst newspaper articles of all time. Between the elite media navel-gazing, the smug sanctimony of the cancelers, the absurd one-sidedness of the narrative structure, the spirit of revenge taken to an odious extreme, it’s hard not to come away feeling nauseated. Unfortunately, it’s so emblematic of the rising dual trends of activist journalism and unforgiving progressivism that I’m going to go into some detail here.

The article is titled “Blackface incident at Post cartoonist’s 2018 Halloween party resurfaces amid protests.” Resurfaced? How? Did it surface once, and is now surfacing again? Already we’re shifting responsibility because the only reason this incident is “surfacing” at all is that the Post lacked the courage to tell the two women pictured in the article’s photo that this particular story was not newsworthy.

These two are Lexie Gruber and Lyric Prince. Gruber is a 27-year-old management consultant, and Prince is a 36-year-old artist. The Post photographed them for the story in Washington D.C.’s Malcom X park, where they appear as bold truth-tellers. Their truth is that they are still mad at an older white woman who didn’t understand that her costume wasn’t funny, and they want revenge. So it begins:

Every year, Tom Toles’s Halloween party draws an eclectic mix — journalists and political types from Washington’s power elite, but also artists and musicians, everyone from retirees to college kids, jammed into small rooms and sprawled across the backyard, dancing and gossiping, checking out the crowd to see who has the most inventive and outrageous costumes.

At the 2018 party at the home of The Washington Post‘s editorial cartoonist, in addition to several Ruth Bader Ginsburgs, someone dressed as the “Mueller Witch Hunt” and Post columnist Dana Milbank came as just-confirmed Supreme Court Justice Brett M. Kavanaugh, complete with a beer-dispensing device on his head. A guest named Lexie Gruber wore a scary “Beetlejuice” get-up and called herself “dead.”

A middle-aged white woman named Sue Schafer wore a conservative business suit and a name tag that said, “Hello, My Name is Megyn Kelly.” Her face was almost entirely blackened with makeup. Kelly, then an NBC morning show host, had just that week caused a stir by defending the use of blackface by white people: “When I was a kid, that was okay, as long as you were dressing up as, like, a character.”

Already, we’re in strange territory. Why is The Washington Post writing about a Washington Post Halloween party from two years ago? If it wasn’t newsworthy then, why is it newsworthy now? Many of the people quoted throughout the article are affiliated with the Post. Were they obligated to participate in this struggle session? Did they go on the record because they were still bothered by the incident, or because it was a chance to show the concern they didn’t feel compelled to show two years ago? The story isn’t the important thing—the story behind the story is what matters. And then the one behind that.

The story here is that Gruber and Prince were offended at the Halloween costume chosen by Sue Schafer, a 54-year-old government contractor, and told her so. The story behind the story is that they recently decided this wasn’t enough of a rebuke and so enlisted the Post to help them identify and publicly humiliate Schafer:

Nearly two years later, the incident, which has bothered some people ever since but which many guests remember only barely or not at all, has resurfaced in the nationwide reckoning over race after George Floyd, an unarmed African American man, was killed when a white police officer in Minneapolis knelt on his neck for nearly nine minutes. Many protesters have called on white Americans to reassess their own actions or inactions when confronting violent and everyday racism alike.

Gruber felt compelled to revive the 2018 incident. Last week, she emailed Toles, whom she has never met.

“In 2018, I attended a Halloween party at your home,” she wrote. “I understand that you are not responsible for the behavior of your guests, but at the party, a woman was in Blackface. She harassed me and my friend — the only two women of color — and it was clear she made her ‘costume’ with racist intent.”

Gruber, a 27-year-old management consultant, told Toles that the incident had “weighed heavily on my heart — it was abhorrent and egregious.” She asked him to help her identify the woman.

“After the killing of George Floyd and the protests, I began reflecting more on this incident,” Gruber said in an emailseeking Post coverage of the incident.

“I wanted to know who this woman is. . . . What impact does she have on society? I think this is an important story — that a party full of prominent people in Washington welcomed a person in blackface, danced and drank with her, and watched in silence as she harassed two young women of color.”

An important aspect of the incident is Gruber’s claim that Schafer “harassed” her. I think most readers would expect that “harassment” is active rather than passive: i.e., that Shafer must have done something to Gruber and Prince, beyond merely wearing a costume. Did she yell at them, or insult them? Since the Post journalists responsible for this story—Marc Fisher and Sydney Trent—were intent on reconstructing the party by interviewing as many guests as they could, you might think they would have shown a passing interest in verifying the provocative claim. But the article never backs it up, and in fact, numerous sources—including Gruber and Prince themselves—undermine it repeatedly.

Looking back, some guests at the party say they wish they had confronted Schafer more aggressively. Others say that she has already paid a price and that her embarrassment and regret were evident when she left the party in tears.

“I wish I’d have been the one to call her out,” said Philippa Hughes, a Washington arts entrepreneur who attended the party. Hughes, who is Asian American, is friendly with both Gruber and Schafer. “I did go up to Sue and say, ‘What the hell?’ But it took Lexie yelling at her to make her leave.”

Gruber yelled at Schafer, causing her to leave the party in tears, according to this attendee’s account.

Here are Gruber and Prince’s own accounts:

Gruber and her friends moved inside, got drinks and found themselves in the crowded living room. Prince, who is 6-foot-1, easily spotted the woman in blackface and pointed her out to Gruber. “What should we do?” Prince said.

She approached Schafer. Prince said she criticized Schafer’s makeup and told her, “You look horrible”—a way of “clapping back” at the blackface without addressing race head-on. Prince said in an interview that she was worried about being stereotyped as an “angry black woman,” worried that someone might call the police.

“I felt very unsafe talking to that person in the first place,” she said. “I was in an environment that, if it got heated, it would decidedly not be in my best interest.”

Another guest, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to protect friendships, said Schafer laughed after Prince said her makeup was “very ugly.”

Gruber also said that “the woman basically just started laughing.”

Schafer agreed that she laughed but said that it was a nervous laugh, a sign of extreme discomfort, and that it came “only when she told me that I was ugly and had wrinkles.

Let’s get this straight: Gruber and Prince walked up to Schafer, called her ugly and pointed out her wrinkles. Schafer laughed awkwardly, probably in order to defuse the tension. Who is supposedly engaged in harassment here?

Benjamin Ross, a friend of Gruber who also attended the party, said her “methodical explanation of the immorality of blackface ‘was beautiful, very respectful. And the woman just laughed at Lexie, very denigrating and flippant. She was not at all apologetic.”

But three other witnesses said she yelled at Schafer, and even Gruber admits that “there wasn’t a single person in that party who didn’t hear me when I spoke.”

Gruber’s entourage left after that, as did Schafer. The next day, Schafer called Toles and apologized for upsetting so many people with her costume. The reasonable conclusion here is that she neither expected nor intended to offend anyone, was sorry for the pain she had caused, and had learned a lesson.

When Schafer was informed recently that the Post was writing about the incident, she thought she should inform her employer. Schafer was promptly fired, which is entirely the Post‘s fault. Gruber and Prince didn’t know Schafer’s name and had no way to publicly shame her without the newspaper’s assistance.

In his recent email correspondence with Gruber, Toles made some attempt to protect Schafer and declined to give Gruber her name. This prompted Gruber to accuse him of complicity in her racism. It’s not clear whether Toles ultimately gave up the name, or how this story was assigned. Reading between the lines, I imagine that someone may have decided that writing the story was a means of getting out in front of it, ensuring that the villain would be Schafer rather than a Post staffer who allowed a white guest in blackface to enter his Halloween party. By valorizing Prince and Gruber—who, let us recall, told an older woman she was ugly and think that they were harassed—and castigating Schafer, the Post ensured that it would not be deemed complicit in her crimes. If this doesn’t call for a Reign of Terror metaphor, I’m not sure what does.

It’s astonishing that this article—a story about a long-ago Halloween party attended by the Post‘s own staff and principally involving three private persons—made it to print, and everyone involved in its publication should be deeply ashamed. That includes Prince and Gruber, but also Fisher and Trent, and their editors. As far as cancel culture goes, this is a new and depressing low point.

(Related: Read Eugene Volokh on the same subject.)

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The Washington Post’s Halloween Costume Hit Job Is a New Low for Cancel Culture

Washington_Post_building

A few years ago, something mildly embarrassing occurred at a Halloween party hosted by a Washington Post cartoonist: A white woman painted her face black and wore a name tag that read “Hello, My Name is Megyn Kelly,” in reference to the TV host’s controversial defense of white people wearing blackface. The intended butt of the joke would appear to be Kelly, not black people. Regardless, several guests approached the woman and explained to her that it was still not OK to wear blackface. The woman reportedly left the party in tears.

Suffice it to say, this is not a story that needed to be told. The woman is not famous, she does not appear to hold any power, and is not seeking public office. But because two of the aggrieved guests—a pair of young, progressive women—are still raw about it, and because we are living through a moment where no single person’s humiliation is too trivial to earn them a reprieve from the forces of cancel culture, a pair of reporters have exhaustively chronicled the incident in a 3,000-word article for…The Washington Post.

Brace yourself before diving in, because this is one of the worst newspaper articles of all time. Between the elite media navel-gazing, the smug sanctimony of the cancelers, the absurd one-sidedness of the narrative structure, the spirit of revenge taken to an odious extreme, it’s hard not to come away feeling nauseated. Unfortunately, it’s so emblematic of the rising dual trends of activist journalism and unforgiving progressivism that I’m going to go into some detail here.

The article is titled “Blackface incident at Post cartoonist’s 2018 Halloween party resurfaces amid protests.” Resurfaced? How? Did it surface once, and is now surfacing again? Already we’re shifting responsibility because the only reason this incident is “surfacing” at all is that the Post lacked the courage to tell the two women pictured in the article’s photo that this particular story was not newsworthy.

These two are Lexie Gruber and Lyric Prince. Gruber is a 27-year-old management consultant, and Prince is a 36-year-old artist. The Post photographed them for the story in Washington D.C.’s Malcom X park, where they appear as bold truth-tellers. Their truth is that they are still mad at an older white woman who didn’t understand that her costume wasn’t funny, and they want revenge. So it begins:

Every year, Tom Toles’s Halloween party draws an eclectic mix — journalists and political types from Washington’s power elite, but also artists and musicians, everyone from retirees to college kids, jammed into small rooms and sprawled across the backyard, dancing and gossiping, checking out the crowd to see who has the most inventive and outrageous costumes.

At the 2018 party at the home of The Washington Post‘s editorial cartoonist, in addition to several Ruth Bader Ginsburgs, someone dressed as the “Mueller Witch Hunt” and Post columnist Dana Milbank came as just-confirmed Supreme Court Justice Brett M. Kavanaugh, complete with a beer-dispensing device on his head. A guest named Lexie Gruber wore a scary “Beetlejuice” get-up and called herself “dead.”

A middle-aged white woman named Sue Schafer wore a conservative business suit and a name tag that said, “Hello, My Name is Megyn Kelly.” Her face was almost entirely blackened with makeup. Kelly, then an NBC morning show host, had just that week caused a stir by defending the use of blackface by white people: “When I was a kid, that was okay, as long as you were dressing up as, like, a character.”

Already, we’re in strange territory. Why is The Washington Post writing about a Washington Post Halloween party from two years ago? If it wasn’t newsworthy then, why is it newsworthy now? Many of the people quoted throughout the article are affiliated with the Post. Were they obligated to participate in this struggle session? Did they go on the record because they were still bothered by the incident, or because it was a chance to show the concern they didn’t feel compelled to show two years ago? The story isn’t the important thing—the story behind the story is what matters. And then the one behind that.

The story here is that Gruber and Prince were offended at the Halloween costume chosen by Sue Schafer, a 54-year-old government contractor, and told her so. The story behind the story is that they recently decided this wasn’t enough of a rebuke and so enlisted the Post to help them identify and publicly humiliate Schafer:

Nearly two years later, the incident, which has bothered some people ever since but which many guests remember only barely or not at all, has resurfaced in the nationwide reckoning over race after George Floyd, an unarmed African American man, was killed when a white police officer in Minneapolis knelt on his neck for nearly nine minutes. Many protesters have called on white Americans to reassess their own actions or inactions when confronting violent and everyday racism alike.

Gruber felt compelled to revive the 2018 incident. Last week, she emailed Toles, whom she has never met.

“In 2018, I attended a Halloween party at your home,” she wrote. “I understand that you are not responsible for the behavior of your guests, but at the party, a woman was in Blackface. She harassed me and my friend — the only two women of color — and it was clear she made her ‘costume’ with racist intent.”

Gruber, a 27-year-old management consultant, told Toles that the incident had “weighed heavily on my heart — it was abhorrent and egregious.” She asked him to help her identify the woman.

“After the killing of George Floyd and the protests, I began reflecting more on this incident,” Gruber said in an emailseeking Post coverage of the incident.

“I wanted to know who this woman is. . . . What impact does she have on society? I think this is an important story — that a party full of prominent people in Washington welcomed a person in blackface, danced and drank with her, and watched in silence as she harassed two young women of color.”

An important aspect of the incident is Gruber’s claim that Schafer “harassed” her. I think most readers would expect that “harassment” is active rather than passive: i.e., that Shafer must have done something to Gruber and Prince, beyond merely wearing a costume. Did she yell at them, or insult them? Since the Post journalists responsible for this story—Marc Fisher and Sydney Trent—were intent on reconstructing the party by interviewing as many guests as they could, you might think they would have shown a passing interest in verifying the provocative claim. But the article never backs it up, and in fact, numerous sources—including Gruber and Prince themselves—undermine it repeatedly.

Looking back, some guests at the party say they wish they had confronted Schafer more aggressively. Others say that she has already paid a price and that her embarrassment and regret were evident when she left the party in tears.

“I wish I’d have been the one to call her out,” said Philippa Hughes, a Washington arts entrepreneur who attended the party. Hughes, who is Asian American, is friendly with both Gruber and Schafer. “I did go up to Sue and say, ‘What the hell?’ But it took Lexie yelling at her to make her leave.”

Gruber yelled at Schafer, causing her to leave the party in tears, according to this attendee’s account.

Here are Gruber and Prince’s own accounts:

Gruber and her friends moved inside, got drinks and found themselves in the crowded living room. Prince, who is 6-foot-1, easily spotted the woman in blackface and pointed her out to Gruber. “What should we do?” Prince said.

She approached Schafer. Prince said she criticized Schafer’s makeup and told her, “You look horrible”—a way of “clapping back” at the blackface without addressing race head-on. Prince said in an interview that she was worried about being stereotyped as an “angry black woman,” worried that someone might call the police.

“I felt very unsafe talking to that person in the first place,” she said. “I was in an environment that, if it got heated, it would decidedly not be in my best interest.”

Another guest, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to protect friendships, said Schafer laughed after Prince said her makeup was “very ugly.”

Gruber also said that “the woman basically just started laughing.”

Schafer agreed that she laughed but said that it was a nervous laugh, a sign of extreme discomfort, and that it came “only when she told me that I was ugly and had wrinkles.

Let’s get this straight: Gruber and Prince walked up to Schafer, called her ugly and pointed out her wrinkles. Schafer laughed awkwardly, probably in order to defuse the tension. Who is supposedly engaged in harassment here?

Benjamin Ross, a friend of Gruber who also attended the party, said her “methodical explanation of the immorality of blackface ‘was beautiful, very respectful. And the woman just laughed at Lexie, very denigrating and flippant. She was not at all apologetic.”

But three other witnesses said she yelled at Schafer, and even Gruber admits that “there wasn’t a single person in that party who didn’t hear me when I spoke.”

Gruber’s entourage left after that, as did Schafer. The next day, Schafer called Toles and apologized for upsetting so many people with her costume. The reasonable conclusion here is that she neither expected nor intended to offend anyone, was sorry for the pain she had caused, and had learned a lesson.

When Schafer was informed recently that the Post was writing about the incident, she thought she should inform her employer. Schafer was promptly fired, which is entirely the Post‘s fault. Gruber and Prince didn’t know Schafer’s name and had no way to publicly shame her without the newspaper’s assistance.

In his recent email correspondence with Gruber, Toles made some attempt to protect Schafer and declined to give Gruber her name. This prompted Gruber to accuse him of complicity in her racism. It’s not clear whether Toles ultimately gave up the name, or how this story was assigned. Reading between the lines, I imagine that someone may have decided that writing the story was a means of getting out in front of it, ensuring that the villain would be Schafer rather than a Post staffer who allowed a white guest in blackface to enter his Halloween party. By valorizing Prince and Gruber—who, let us recall, told an older woman she was ugly and think that they were harassed—and castigating Schafer, the Post ensured that it would not be deemed complicit in her crimes. If this doesn’t call for a Reign of Terror metaphor, I’m not sure what does.

It’s astonishing that this article—a story about a long-ago Halloween party attended by the Post‘s own staff and principally involving three private persons—made it to print, and everyone involved in its publication should be deeply ashamed. That includes Prince and Gruber, but also Fisher and Trent, and their editors. As far as cancel culture goes, this is a new and depressing low point.

(Related: Read Eugene Volokh on the same subject.)

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Tennessee Passes Drug-Free School Zone Reforms Following Reason Investigation

drug free school zone

The Tennessee legislature passed a bill Wednesday night significantly reforming its harsh drug-free school zone laws, which were the subject of a 2017 Reason investigation.

The Tennessee House voted 88-4 to pass legislation shrinking the state’s drug-free school zones from 1,000 feet to 500 feet. The bill, introduced by Republican state Rep. Michael Curcio, also requires a court to find that a defendant’s conduct endangered children or other vulnerable people before mandatory minimum sentences can be applied. The Tennessee Senate unanimously passed the bill last week, and it now goes to Republican Gov. Bill Lee’s desk for a signature.

All 50 states and the District of Columbia passed drug-free school zone laws during the 1980s and ’90s with the goal of keeping drugs away from kids. However, Reason‘s investigation revealed that Tennessee’s particularly harsh law created enhanced sentencing zones that covered large swaths of cities, extending 1,000 feet from every school, park, library, and daycare. Those zones turned minor drug crimes into mandatory minimum prison sentences that rivaled—and sometimes exceeded—those for second-degree murder and rape.

“While this was well-intentioned, unfortunately, this policy has not been accomplishing the outcome that the legislature intended,” Curcio said during a committee hearing on the bill earlier this year. “The main reason for this failure is that drug offenders are not often affected by deterrence-based policies.”

“It would also be my argument today that these zones cast far too wide a net in our communities,” Curcio continued. “While 1,000 feet might not sound like a lot, over a quarter of the state’s total land area within city limits are within a zone.”

East Knoxville, Tennessee. 58 percent of the area within city limits is a drug-free zone. Illustration by Lorenz Krisai.

Reason‘s analysis of geographic data from the Tennessee government showed that 27 percent of Nashville and more than 38 percent of Memphis were covered by drug-free school zones. Those zones applied day and night, whether or not children were present, and in private residences or when one was simply driving through a zone.

“I’m really excited that the first major sentencing reform bill to pass the Tennessee legislature in decades is drug-free school zone reform,” says Lauren Krisai, senior policy analyst at the U.S. Justice Action Network and co-author of Reason‘s investigation. “Once lawmakers saw how expansive these zones were and how pervasive they’ve been for so many communities, it was clear that reform was needed.”

Civil liberties groups, and even some current and former prosecutors, say such drug-free school zone laws are rarely, if ever, used to prosecute drug cases involving minors. Instead, prosecutors use the threat of a drug-free school zone charge and accompanying mandatory minimum sentence to squeeze guilty pleas out of defendants who had no idea they were in a zone. (In a few cases, Reason found police intentionally set up drug deals inside school zones to secure enhanced charges.)

Take the case of Calvin Bryant, who was 20 years old when he was sentenced in 2008 to 17 years in Tennessee state prison—15 of them mandatory—for selling ecstasy to a confidential informant out of his Nashville apartment, which happened to be within 1,000 feet of a school.

If Bryant had been convicted of second-degree murder, he would have been eligible for an earlier release. That crime carries a minimum 15-year sentence but includes a possibility for release within 13.

After serving 10-and-a-half years in prison, Bryant was released in 2018 after prosecutors struck a deal to release him on time served. Bryant now mentors inner-city youth through a nonprofit organization he started.

Over the past decade, Utah, Indiana, and Massachusetts all passed laws reducing their drug-free school zone laws and associated criminal penalties in response to similar concerns.

Molly Gill, vice president of policy for the criminal justice advocacy group FAMM, says Tennessee’s reforms are in some ways both less and more sweeping than other states.

“Utah’s [drug-free school zone] is 100 feet from a school,” she says. “On the other hand, though, this bill basically restores judicial discretion at sentencing for drug-free school zone offenses, and that’s a much bigger step than many other places have been willing to take.”

However, the Tennessee law, assuming the governor signs it, would not apply retroactively. Gill says there are currently around 400 inmates in Tennessee state prisons serving sentences for drug-free school zone offenses—a number that does not take into account defendants who pleaded guilty to lesser charges to avoid a school zone conviction.

“A lot of them don’t need to be doing that much time and maybe don’t need to be there at all anymore,” Gill says. “We really hope that the governor will use his clemency power to review those 400 cases and let the people who deserve to go home, go home.”

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8 Reasons Why COVID-19 Damage To The Economy Will Be Deep And Lasting

8 Reasons Why COVID-19 Damage To The Economy Will Be Deep And Lasting

Tyler Durden

Thu, 06/18/2020 – 12:23

Authored by Yves Smith via NakedCapitalism.com,

Too many people who should know better are taking a big bounce in retail sales as a sign that an economic recovery is well underway. It is, but only in the sense that going from the ICU to a hospital bed could also be defined as a recovery. In keeping, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow forecast for the second quarter has improved from negative 52.8% to a sunny negative 45.5%.

Needless to say, a rebound from the lockdowns was inevitable. All sorts of activities like dentist appointments on hold (and dentistry personnel accounted for 10% of the job gains), and so there’s pent up demand for medical procedures and treatments, as well as more mundane services that many regard as critical, like haircuts.

Nevertheless, stock indices rising to new highs looks remarkably out of touch in light of the baked-in and certain-to-continue-for-long-enough-to-matter damage. The true believers are in “Central banks are on the case and will save us” mode. Perhaps they need to heed the warning, “Past results are no guarantee of future performance.”

Multiple factors are working together to bias observers to underestimate the severity of Covid-19 economic damage.

The first is that it has hit parts of the economy that are relatively removed from media coverage: low income service workers and small business owners. Tell me how often CNN goes to interview the owner of a dry cleaner or auto lube shop, even though small businesses have long been the generator of new jobs. Similarly, notice how reports of Covid-19 infections at food processing facilities isn’t covered until the capacity taken out rises to a level where it might impact consumers. In keeping, Bloomberg had a story today, More Food Shortages Loom With Outbreaks at 60 U.S Plants, of outbreaks at non-meat processing facilities, like fruit and vegetable packers and bakeries.

Second is that in the middle income to better off sections of the country, things still look reassuringly normal. The lockdowns froze activity…including business closures. I now live in a twee suburb, and in the local shopping districts, there are not yet any vacant storefronts, even though some businesses in not so prominent locations (a liquor store, the restaurant with the best pizza in the area, and an Olive Garden branch, for starters) have folded; a lot of better restaurants have not reopened even though the lockdown ended a couple of weeks ago.

On top of that, houses in tony suburban and exurban areas are in keen demand. So on top of feeling good about their stock portfolios, upper middle class homeowners in those areas are positively chuffed about reports of brisk property sales at strong prices.

Third is that due to optimism bias and/or having experienced the 1987 crash, the dotcom bust, and 9/11, many people are predisposed to believe that even if the pain of spring 2020 is acute, that the economy will rebound and nearly all of the damage will be erased by year end or say at worst, mid 2021. Underscoring that it a widespread tendency to see Mr. Market at the economy.

This is far from a comprehensive list, but below are eight reasons why the deep damage to the economy won’t be reversed any time soon.

1. Business travel is not coming back any time soon. People are getting accustomed to Zoom. And word may also get out that domestic flying is much worse than it used to be, which will be a deterrent to those who might be so bold as to want to get on a plane. That is a fundamental blow to airlines, airport vendors, hotels, restaurants, and convention centers. Hotel occupancy in April was 24.5% which if anything seems high based on my personal datapoints. The pricings I see say that hotel operators are not expecting much if any improvement through the summer. And as we discussed, hotels are at risk of creating a vicious cycle: they’ve cut service levels drastically as a way to reduce the bleeding of the low occupancy rates. But even at knocked-down prices, the degraded experience is enough to make travelers think twice about getting on the road.

2. White collar workers will not be going back to offices in the old numbers. Elevators and public transport, particularly commuter trains, are perceived as big risks. And a lot of cities can’t cope well with people driving in. NYC is extreme here but it’s now short of parking space even with midtown looking freakily underpopulated. Moreover, many large corporations, having had to figure out how to make work from home manageable, have decided they can cope with it or even like it, so they plan to cut their office space when lease renewals come up. That development will thin out tons of businesses near office buildings

Estimates vary, but in New York City, both retail and office space payments are way down. 40% seems a reasonable guesstimate based on the panic level.

3. On the residential side, both the CARES Act as well as measures implemented locally provided for forbearance. But as Lee Sheppard explained in Tax Notes, this is imprecise legally. Landlords and lenders are expected to give tenants and homeowners a payment holiday, but what happens then isn’t at all clear:

CARES Act sections 4022 and 4023 give borrowers of federally backed mortgages the right to request forbearance for 90 to 180 days, depending on the number of units in the building, with no fees or extra interest charged. Foreclosure is prohibited during that period.

Banks that kept loans on their books are being urged to be lenient and restructure them. Section 4013 of the CARES Act tells regulated lenders that they won’t have to take charge-offs or nonaccrual classifications for what would otherwise be impaired loans or troubled debt restructurings.

The CARES Act requires forbearance only for mortgages. But it also permits bank forbearance and changes for other loans, with indulgence from regulators. So there will be a fair amount of action on loans.

What is forbearance? It is a lender’s temporary willingness not to collect interest or principal payments on a loan. It is by definition discretionary and not an exercise of the terms of the loan document. Indeed, it is a deliberate failure to exercise creditor default remedies.

So we’ll see evictions and foreclosures. I have no idea what the level will be and banks may decide in some areas not to foreclose (cheaper to have the resident secure the house) but the municipality loses property tax income.

4. Colleges will have a lot of trouble this fall. First, they are losing nearly all their full-freight-paying Chinese students, between concern over US Covid-19 risks, Administration hostility, and travel restrictions. That alone is a big blow.

On top of that, some are planning to reopen but MIT’s announcement yesterday, that it will not allow all students to return to campus, probably represents a new normal. Well-placed MIT alumni read the university’s decision as driven significantly by a desire to protect faculty and staff; I hear from sources with contacts at other universities that administrators that they see no way to put kids in dorms without running unacceptably high Covid risks. Remember, even though kids almost never die of Covid-19, but there is a risk of serious damage. 1/2 the asymptomatic cases on the Diamond Princess now show abnormal lungs. And remember those cruises have half the people on board as crew, and the crew skews young. College is a lot less appealing if you don’t stay in a dorm.

Just as diminished activity in central business districts has negative knock-on effects to nearby business, so to do hollowed-out colleges and universities have for their communities, as described in more depth in a recent Bloomberg story.

5. PPP loans are keeping workers on the books through late June-mid July, depending on when the loan came in. Many employers, ranging from museums to small manufacturers are saying they have to make deep headcount cuts then. Continuing unemployment claims already show that new hires are still being pretty much equaled by job losses.

6. Cutting across all the categories of businesses suffering from Covid-19 damage….restaurants, shops in office districts, merchants in college towns, small manufacturers….is that many are small businesses. Small business owners have to guarantee loans personally unless they are able to finance their operations by borrowing against real estate. Even SBA loans require a personal guarantee. So when consumers cheerily say that restaurant owners or other operators will just declare Chapter 7 or 11 and then start their venture afresh, they miss that these capitalists will be wiped out. They won’t have the money to start over again. And they may not have the pain tolerance either.

7. State and local governments are already hemorrhaging jobs and it will get worse. And in some, perhaps many communities, the budget cuts will be so deep that they will degrade service levels. Less frequent garbage collection and street repair is not good for business either.

8. The EU is not going to do enough stimulus to offset its own Covid-19 damage and Brexit is coming, a shock to the EU and UK when both are already on the ropes. Roughly 25% of S&P earnings come from Europe. The odds Italian banks will blow is rising all the time and that could be a CreditAnstalt-level event.

I’m sure readers can come up with additional items, but this list alone ought to be enough to curb the enthusiasm of the economy cheerleaders. As Marshall Auerback said by e-mail:

American household spending in the 1960s was powered by rising wages and growing home equity. But wages have been largely stagnant since at least 2000, and spending increases since 2010 were powered by rising personal and corporate debts. House values are now stagnant at best, and will likely fall in the months ahead. Faced with radical uncertainty, US consumers will save more and spend less. Even if the government replaces their lost incomes for a time, people know that stimulus is short term. What they do not know is when the next job offer – or layoff – will come along.

Moreover, people do distinguish between needs and wants. Americans need to eat, but they mostly don’t need to eat out. They don’t need to travel. Restaurant owners and airlines therefore have two problems: they can’t cover costs while their capacity is limited for public-health reasons, and demand would be down even if the coronavirus disappeared. This explains why many businesses are not reopening even though they legally can. Others are reopening, but fear they cannot hold out for long. And the many millions of workers in America’s vast services sector are realizing that their jobs are simply not essential.

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