COVID-19 To “Shock” US Economy Into Deep Contraction, 13% Unemployment By June, WSJ Survey Says

COVID-19 To “Shock” US Economy Into Deep Contraction, 13% Unemployment By June, WSJ Survey Says

The Wall Street Journal published a new monthly survey that outlines the severe economic impact of shutting down cities across America to mitigate the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. 

The survey of 57 economists from April 3-7 includes 14.4 million job losses and a surge in unemployment through spring, with the possibility of a recovery in the second half of the year.

Economists told The WSJ that the U.S. labor market is in free fall, could see an unemployment rate as high as 13% in June, and roughly 10% by December. As of March, the jobless rate was elevated at 4.4%.

The outcome of the virus pandemic spreading across the country with 399,929 confirmed cases and 12,911 deaths, has turned into an economic and social crisis.

A depression will unfold in the second quarter, and the survey expects GDP to contract by at least 25% on an annual rate.

“This is the worst external shock in anyone’s living memory; it is as if a meteor hit the Earth and now we have to put it back on its axis,” said Grant Thornton economist Diane Swonk.

Most of the economists, or at least 85% that were surveyed, believe an economic recovery will be seen in the second half of the year. Their estimates are between annualized growth rates of 6.2% and 6.6% in the third and fourth quarters, respectively.

Here’s what they believe growth will be on the full year:

“For the full year, measured from the fourth quarter of 2019 to the fourth quarter of 2020, economists expect gross domestic product to shrink 4.9%. That compares with expectations of 1.2% growth just last month. Full-year growth was 2.3% in 2019. Economists now forecast full-year growth of 5.1% in 2021,” said The WSJ.

Many of the economists that were surveyed were split among the shape of the recovery in the second half. 

“Can’t retire 20% of the economy and expect rapid rebound,” said economists Matthew Fienup and Dan Hamilton of California Lutheran University, who was part of the 45.1% of respondents expecting a U-shaped recovery.

The economists also said the Federal Reserve would hold interest rates on the zero lower bound through 2021. The average forecast in rate policy was a 25bps increase by the end of 2021.

The monthly survey showed 100% of economists thought the virus would be a “significant drag” on full-year economic growth in 2020,” up from 75% a month earlier.

“The economy will remain shellshocked at least this year,” said Loyola Marymount University economist Sung Won Sohn. “No time to raise rates.”

When it comes to corporate profits, economists expected earnings across companies in the S&P 500 to plunge 36% in the second quarter versus the same period last year. On an annualized basis, economists believed earnings would decline by at least 19%.

The WSJ notes, “One thing economists don’t see coming are further sharp selloffs in financial markets.”

Economists are making a bold statement in calling a possible bottom in markets as the economy plunges into depression.

Odd that almost every economist surveyed expects a recovery in the second half. What if that is not the case? 

Maybe these economists need to read the latest WTO and OECD reports listed below. It would undoubtedly change their minds about recovery this year… 

And a kindly reminder from Sven Henrich via NorthmanTrader.com, “January WSJ survey: 100% expect no recession in 2020.” 

It appears these so-called experts are blinder than bats…  


Tyler Durden

Wed, 04/08/2020 – 17:20

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/3bZIENd Tyler Durden

Three In Four Americans Have Self-Isolated In Their Household: Gallup

Three In Four Americans Have Self-Isolated In Their Household: Gallup

Authored by Justin McCarthy of Gallup,

Three in four Americans say they have completely (28%) or mostly (47%) isolated themselves from people outside their household.

The percentage who are self-isolating rapidly increased between March 16 and 26, but has shown only modest change since then.

These results are from a probability-based Gallup Panel survey, conducted online April 3-5. Currently, 16% say they are partially isolated, while 6% have isolated a little. Few Americans (3%) say they have not made any attempt to isolate themselves at all.

In the initial Gallup Panel survey, conducted March 16-19, Americans were about equally likely to report being isolated versus not isolated. The percentage who reported self-isolating increased to 64% in the week that followed, reaching 69% one week later.

Gallup found some differences by subgroup:

  • The more dense the area where a person lives, the more likely they are to self-isolate. Residents of urban areas (84%) are more likely than those living in suburbs (79%) and rural areas (67%) to say they are completely or mostly isolated from people outside their home.

  • Among political party identification groups, Democrats (84%) are most likely to report being completely or mostly isolated. Most independents (73%) and Republicans (66%) have isolated themselves to the same degree.

  • Americans who are not currently working (84%) are more likely to report isolation than those who are currently working (69%).


Tyler Durden

Wed, 04/08/2020 – 17:00

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2UUwAas Tyler Durden

Watch Live: White House Coronavirus Task Force Delivers Wednesday Press Briefing

Watch Live: White House Coronavirus Task Force Delivers Wednesday Press Briefing

It’s that time again.

As the global coronavirus case total passes 1.5 million, President Trump and the VP Mike Pence-led coronavirus task force will deliver their big Wednesday night update some time after 5 p.m.

 

 

 

 


Tyler Durden

Wed, 04/08/2020 – 16:55

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2JOTXvz Tyler Durden

Will Civil Rights in Latin America Be a Permanent Casualty of Coronavirus?

Bogota, ColombiaPeople are never more willing to give up their civil rights to the government than when they feel threatened. Nearly 19 years after the United States enacted the supposedly temporary measures of the PATRIOT Act, citizens still live under the microscope of a surveillance state. The law has been used to justify torture as well as the assassination of U.S. citizens without due process. As humanity stares down a new enemy, the coronavirus, some states in Latin America are considering similarly broad expansions of power.

The world response to the COVID-19 epidemic has been completely unprecedented. At the time of writing, 82 countries have restricted travel through their borders and 37 have completely closed them completely. Both the invisible and physical walls that separate the world have grown less penetrable, but no region has enacted measures as strict as Latin America, whose governments fear their vulnerable health systems will not be able to cope with widespread outbreak. 

A dozen Latin American countries—with a combined population of more than 175 million people—have placed their citizens on full lockdown, a measure which some countries are enforcing by deploying soldiers to the streets.

Jihan Simon Hasbun is a doctor and political activist in San Pedro Sula, Honduras. “Lockdown is unfortunately our only option,” she tells Reason. “I am a strong critic of the authoritarian government of ‘Joh’ [the nickname for President Juan Orlando Hernandez], but our health system almost collapsed under a Dengue outbreak last year. Coronavirus is much more contagious and statistically much more deadly.”

Hasbun also believes that the president is using the COVID-19 outbreak as an opportunity to distract from ongoing corruption and drug trafficking accusations, as well as popular protests, all while pushing his long-running privatization agenda while the world is distracted.

Honduras isn’t alone in having citizens worry the government is taking advantage of the crisis. Across the region, would-be autocrats are trying to dismantle the very institutions that safeguard democracy.

In the latest of a series of eyebrow-raising authoritarian actions, the unelected interim government of Bolivia has postponed national elections that were scheduled for May 3 and has yet to announce a date for rescheduling.

In Colombia, prison riots over infection fears were put down violently in a confrontation that left at least 23 people dead. Armed groups, meanwhile, have taken advantage of occupied authorities to resume their campaign of killing activists and social leaders who oppose their interests. 

When the coronavirus crisis eventually passes, will these encroachments on liberty recede? If history is any guide, the answer is likely to be no––at least not easily. 

The primary barrier to governments enacting controversial power grabs are the critics and institutions who would object, so a handful of Latin American leaders are taking dramatic steps to silence those who check their power. They’re now muzzling journalists through intimidation, arrest, or character assassination.

In Honduras, the government passed an emergency measure that temporarily suspended constitutional protections on free speech for both citizens and journalists. On March 25, the Bolivian government announced a decree that allows imprisonment for up to 10 years of those who “misinform” or “promote non-compliance” with government regulation. The nonprofit Human Rights Watch has criticized the language of the law, saying it is intentionally vague and could be used to prosecute political opponents and journalists alike. 

In Venezuela, freelance journalist Darvinson Rojas was arrested by Special Action Forces (FAES) and imprisoned for his coverage of the coronavirus crisis. The local Venezuelan press has covered half a dozen instances of journalists being intimidated. And on April 6, FAES arrested Luis Serrano, a civil assemblyman who would have determined the next election oversight board in Venezuela, according to WOLA, a human rights group in Latin America. They seized masks and protective gear Serrano’s organization had donated to journalists covering COVID-19 and detained politicians who’d been contradicting the government’s official coronavirus statistics, which many medical experts consider unbelievably low. 

In Brazil, President Jair Bolsonaro has turned the crisis into a political weapon, claiming that the press is trying to destroy his presidency through misinformation. Despite ignoring advice from health officials within his own party about the danger of the epidemic, he used the crisis as justification to release an executive order that abolished freedom of information legislation, effectively undermining the ability of journalists or NGOs to obtain public health information. The executive order was quickly struck down by Brazil’s Supreme Court.

“This is a continuation of a pattern of [Bolsonaro’s] attacks on the bodies that limit presidential power,” Camila Asano, program coordinator of Brazilian human rights organization Conectas, says. “His attempts to bypass and attack the Brazilian press and the judiciary have been especially problematic. He is using the crisis to silence critics and those he perceives as enemies.”

Most of Latin America, 16 countries in all, severely restricted their borders between March 14 and 18, creating a physical firewall against the coronavirus that they hope will allow them to avoid the fate of countries that responded more slowly to the threat like Italy, Spain, and the United States. Nine Latin American nations—Honduras, Colombia, Suriname, Guatemala, Ecuador, Peru, Bolivia, Chile, and Argentina—have closed their frontiers completely, leaving many travelers and foreign citizens trapped for the foreseeable future, and many immigrants dangerously vulnerable.

The most dramatic closure occurred in Colombia, which for years had maintained an open border with Venezuela amid the worst refugee crisis in modern Latin American history, a symbol of successful open borders policy for the world. Since 2015, over 6 million Venezuelans have fled their collapsing state, mostly through Colombia, where 1.7 million have taken up permanent residency. That is no longer a legal option, and the closure has put millions along the Colombian-Venezuelan border at the mercy of armed gangs who control informal smuggling paths.

“We have no choice,” an immigration official told me on the Colombian-Venezuelan border in March. “We don’t have the resources or robust health systems of North America or Europe. Colombia is not a rich country. If Italy and the U.S. can’t handle the virus, how can we?”

The mandatory national lockdowns in 12 countries which allow citizens to leave their houses only to buy food or medicine have been enforced with fines, arrests, and even deportations. In Ecuador, the military was assigned control of an entire city to enforce the quarantine.

The sudden halt in economic activity has left millions of working class citizens across Latin America unemployed—people who live day to day with no savings and few other options. 

Meanwhile, Colombia, Ecuador, Chile, Nicaragua, Venezuela and Bolivia have all been heavily criticized by the United Nations for violent repression of a continent-wide wave of protests that swept through Latin America just months ago. If civil unrest flares up again over economic or health issues during the current state of emergency, protesters in many countries may find themselves facing down state forces with extralegal powers and a muzzled press. 

The degree of authoritarianism varies by country: Brazil’s institutions of democracy have proven sound for now, stopping dangerous and unjustifiable expansion of executive power, but Bolivian, Honduran, and Venezuelan citizens have been less fortunate. Many other nations teeter on the brink of policy decisions that would have grave consequences for liberty. Across the whole region, however, millions find themselves at risk from extreme government containment measures and borders that may never completely reopen.

People who live here in Latin America hope that life will return to normal once the crisis passes, but there’s a very real possibility that many may soon be demanding their rights from governments loath to return them.

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“Black Swan” Hedge Fund Advised By Nassim Taleb Returns 3,612% In March

“Black Swan” Hedge Fund Advised By Nassim Taleb Returns 3,612% In March

During the financial crisis, when most hedge funds suffered catastrophic returns forcing many to gate their investors, Mark Spitznagel, who is perhaps best known for the phrase “I spend all my time thinking about looming disaster”, made what the WSJ reported was “huge gains” with his “black swan” targeting hedge fund Universa Investments, which not incidentally is advised by Nassim Taleb. Then, in August 2015 during the infamous ETFlash crash, his fund reportedly made a gain of about $1 billion, or 20%, during a single, turbulent day when the VIX briefly broke and ETF trading went haywire for several hours.

Fast forward to March when the biggest “looming disaster” in decades finally struck, and when Universa struck the historic payday it was waiting for ever since the inception of its tail-hedge fund – which is basically deep out of the money puts which roll every month – in March 2008.

“It is a good time to reflect again on how we have performed for you as a risk mitigation strategy, if for no other reason than to give you some reassurance and even solace following one of the scariest months for markets on record” Spitznagel writes in his investor letter sent out to clients earlier today, and then delivers the good news: the fund generated a 3,612% return on invested capital in March, and a phenomenal 4,144% year to date.

“These returns likely surpass any other investment that you can think of over the period you have been invested with us. Kudos to you for such a sound “tactical” allocation to Universa”, Spitznagel said, taking a well-deserved victory lap, adding that the fund was able to monetize the bulk of the spikes in P&L that it experienced in March, “while keeping downside protection in place throughout, should the market continue lower—one of our tricks of the trade.”

Spitznagel went on: “the standalone Universa tail hedge strategy’s life-to-date mean annual net return on invested capital (expressed as returns on a standardized capital investment since inception in March 2008, and using yours from your start date) has been +76% per year. (During this period, as a reminder, the SPX has gained 151%. Are we really such an “über-bearish” strategy?).

In explaining how the Universa fund adds fat-tail protection to a diversified portfolio, Spitznagel writes that:

We have managed to consistently achieve our aim of raising our risk mitigated portfolio CAGRs by lowering risk, pandemic or no pandemic. And, as I have said many times before, it has worked so well simply because of the mathematics of compounding: the big losses are essentially ALL that matter to your rate of compounding, not the small losses—and not even the big or small gains. The big losses literally destroy your geometric returns and, equivalently, your wealth, through what I have called the “volatility tax.” For risk mitigation to be effective, it therefore must focus primarily on mitigating those big, rare losses (the tails). More specifically, risk mitigation must have a very high “bang-for-the buck” in a portfolio when the chips are down in a crash, relative to the portfolio cost of that “buck” the rest of the time—a very “convex” (tail) hedge. None of these other competing strategies have shown that.

Spitznagel also included a performance scorecard, which showed that a portfolio invested 96.7% in the S&P500 and just 3.3% in Universa’s Tail Hedge fund, would have had a positive return in March, a month when the S&P dropped 12.4%. The same portfolio – which eliminates the adverse effect on compounding from downside shocks – would have produced a 11.5% CAGR since inception in March 2008 versus 7.9% for the S&P500.

“To put this in perspective, that value-added to the SPX portfolio CAGR life-to-date from a 3.33% allocation to the Universa tail hedge is mathematically equivalent to a 3.33% allocation to an annuity over that same period yielding 102% per year. Let that one simmer for a minute. We are not just another little incremental source of alpha within your portfolio; nor are we just some exotic alternative to a fixed income allocation”, the Universa CIO wrote explaining his risk management philosophy.

“Remember, anyone can make money in a crash; it’s what they do the rest of the time that matters. The totality of the payoff is what creates the portfolio effect.”

There is more on how Universa’s “risk-mitigation” strategy worked to offset the sharp March losses in the pdf attached below, but what we found more interesting was the brief outlook on markets and the global economy from the Universa CIO, which while pithy, is sufficient concise to recap everything one needs to know about the “market” in the years to come:

Looking ahead, the world remains very much trapped in the mother of all global financial bubbles. This is obvious, a given. Markets were priced for “perfection,” and now, following even more of the greatest monetary stimulus in human history  (much of it in the span of just the last few weeks), they’re still priced for “really good”—still very expensive.

So this is far from over; the current pandemic is merely threatening to pop the bubble. (And, as we all can plainly see, the powers that be are likely running out of ways to keep the bubble inflated.) Make no mistake, it’s the systemic vulnerabilities created by this unprecedented central-bank-fueled bubble, and the crazy, naïve risk-taking and leverage that accompanies it, that makes this pandemic so potentially destructive to the financial markets and the economy.

Is the bubble now popping? When I look deep into my magic crystal ball, it clearly says to me, “There are no magic crystal balls!” And, moreover, those who grandiosely tout their crystal balls need to be avoided in the interest of preservation of capital. Whose crystal ball saw this past quarter coming? Sure, the global pandemic risks were there for all to see (as our colleague Nassim Nicholas Taleb pointed out in his book The Black Swan, some 13 years ago), but no one can ever really see what’s next, what lies around the corner. Despite our performance, that has included us. One’s risk mitigation strategy must reflect that reality.

But if history and economic logic are any guide, if the pandemic doesn’t pop this bubble then, of course, it will be something else that eventually accomplishes this. That’s my Cassandra speech (again).

Full Universa letter below:


Tyler Durden

Wed, 04/08/2020 – 16:40

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/39NAlm8 Tyler Durden

Will Civil Rights in Latin America Be a Permanent Casualty of Coronavirus?

Bogota, ColombiaPeople are never more willing to give up their civil rights to the government than when they feel threatened. Nearly 19 years after the United States enacted the supposedly temporary measures of the PATRIOT Act, citizens still live under the microscope of a surveillance state. The law has been used to justify torture as well as the assassination of U.S. citizens without due process. As humanity stares down a new enemy, the coronavirus, some states in Latin America are considering similarly broad expansions of power.

The world response to the COVID-19 epidemic has been completely unprecedented. At the time of writing, 82 countries have restricted travel through their borders and 37 have completely closed them completely. Both the invisible and physical walls that separate the world have grown less penetrable, but no region has enacted measures as strict as Latin America, whose governments fear their vulnerable health systems will not be able to cope with widespread outbreak. 

A dozen Latin American countries—with a combined population of more than 175 million people—have placed their citizens on full lockdown, a measure which some countries are enforcing by deploying soldiers to the streets.

Jihan Simon Hasbun is a doctor and political activist in San Pedro Sula, Honduras. “Lockdown is unfortunately our only option,” she tells Reason. “I am a strong critic of the authoritarian government of ‘Joh’ [the nickname for President Juan Orlando Hernandez], but our health system almost collapsed under a Dengue outbreak last year. Coronavirus is much more contagious and statistically much more deadly.”

Hasbun also believes that the president is using the COVID-19 outbreak as an opportunity to distract from ongoing corruption and drug trafficking accusations, as well as popular protests, all while pushing his long-running privatization agenda while the world is distracted.

Honduras isn’t alone in having citizens worry the government is taking advantage of the crisis. Across the region, would-be autocrats are trying to dismantle the very institutions that safeguard democracy.

In the latest of a series of eyebrow-raising authoritarian actions, the unelected interim government of Bolivia has postponed national elections that were scheduled for May 3 and has yet to announce a date for rescheduling.

In Colombia, prison riots over infection fears were put down violently in a confrontation that left at least 23 people dead. Armed groups, meanwhile, have taken advantage of occupied authorities to resume their campaign of killing activists and social leaders who oppose their interests. 

When the coronavirus crisis eventually passes, will these encroachments on liberty recede? If history is any guide, the answer is likely to be no––at least not easily. 

The primary barrier to governments enacting controversial power grabs are the critics and institutions who would object, so a handful of Latin American leaders are taking dramatic steps to silence those who check their power. They’re now muzzling journalists through intimidation, arrest, or character assassination.

In Honduras, the government passed an emergency measure that temporarily suspended constitutional protections on free speech for both citizens and journalists. On March 25, the Bolivian government announced a decree that allows imprisonment for up to 10 years of those who “misinform” or “promote non-compliance” with government regulation. The nonprofit Human Rights Watch has criticized the language of the law, saying it is intentionally vague and could be used to prosecute political opponents and journalists alike. 

In Venezuela, freelance journalist Darvinson Rojas was arrested by Special Action Forces (FAES) and imprisoned for his coverage of the coronavirus crisis. The local Venezuelan press has covered half a dozen instances of journalists being intimidated. And on April 6, FAES arrested Luis Serrano, a civil assemblyman who would have determined the next election oversight board in Venezuela, according to WOLA, a human rights group in Latin America. They seized masks and protective gear Serrano’s organization had donated to journalists covering COVID-19 and detained politicians who’d been contradicting the government’s official coronavirus statistics, which many medical experts consider unbelievably low. 

In Brazil, President Jair Bolsonaro has turned the crisis into a political weapon, claiming that the press is trying to destroy his presidency through misinformation. Despite ignoring advice from health officials within his own party about the danger of the epidemic, he used the crisis as justification to release an executive order that abolished freedom of information legislation, effectively undermining the ability of journalists or NGOs to obtain public health information. The executive order was quickly struck down by Brazil’s Supreme Court.

“This is a continuation of a pattern of [Bolsonaro’s] attacks on the bodies that limit presidential power,” Camila Asano, program coordinator of Brazilian human rights organization Conectas, says. “His attempts to bypass and attack the Brazilian press and the judiciary have been especially problematic. He is using the crisis to silence critics and those he perceives as enemies.”

Most of Latin America, 16 countries in all, severely restricted their borders between March 14 and 18, creating a physical firewall against the coronavirus that they hope will allow them to avoid the fate of countries that responded more slowly to the threat like Italy, Spain, and the United States. Nine Latin American nations—Honduras, Colombia, Suriname, Guatemala, Ecuador, Peru, Bolivia, Chile, and Argentina—have closed their frontiers completely, leaving many travelers and foreign citizens trapped for the foreseeable future, and many immigrants dangerously vulnerable.

The most dramatic closure occurred in Colombia, which for years had maintained an open border with Venezuela amid the worst refugee crisis in modern Latin American history, a symbol of successful open borders policy for the world. Since 2015, over 6 million Venezuelans have fled their collapsing state, mostly through Colombia, where 1.7 million have taken up permanent residency. That is no longer a legal option, and the closure has put millions along the Colombian-Venezuelan border at the mercy of armed gangs who control informal smuggling paths.

“We have no choice,” an immigration official told me on the Colombian-Venezuelan border in March. “We don’t have the resources or robust health systems of North America or Europe. Colombia is not a rich country. If Italy and the U.S. can’t handle the virus, how can we?”

The mandatory national lockdowns in 12 countries which allow citizens to leave their houses only to buy food or medicine have been enforced with fines, arrests, and even deportations. In Ecuador, the military was assigned control of an entire city to enforce the quarantine.

The sudden halt in economic activity has left millions of working class citizens across Latin America unemployed—people who live day to day with no savings and few other options. 

Meanwhile, Colombia, Ecuador, Chile, Nicaragua, Venezuela and Bolivia have all been heavily criticized by the United Nations for violent repression of a continent-wide wave of protests that swept through Latin America just months ago. If civil unrest flares up again over economic or health issues during the current state of emergency, protesters in many countries may find themselves facing down state forces with extralegal powers and a muzzled press. 

The degree of authoritarianism varies by country: Brazil’s institutions of democracy have proven sound for now, stopping dangerous and unjustifiable expansion of executive power, but Bolivian, Honduran, and Venezuelan citizens have been less fortunate. Many other nations teeter on the brink of policy decisions that would have grave consequences for liberty. Across the whole region, however, millions find themselves at risk from extreme government containment measures and borders that may never completely reopen.

People who live here in Latin America hope that life will return to normal once the crisis passes, but there’s a very real possibility that many may soon be demanding their rights from governments loath to return them.

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Encounters Of An Average American Nobody With The ‘Curious’ COVID New World

Encounters Of An Average American Nobody With The ‘Curious’ COVID New World

Authored by Doug “Uncola” Lynn via TheBurningPlatform.com,

Last week, I read an online article in my local paper telling of a 68-year-old gentleman who died from COVID-19. In the article, it described how the man had retired in the last year because of cancer. Then, two days later, my wife asked me if I had read the article.  When I said that I had, she responded:  

Scary, huh? He was healthy.”

I replied:

What do you mean? He had underlying issues“.

And when we logged-on to read the article again, it was tagged as “updated 7 hours ago” and many of the words I’d read two nights before were…. gone.

In the paragraph where it said he retired, it mentioned nothing of his cancer and instead described how the man was “active and enjoyed riding his bike”.

Of course, even a tin-foil-hat-wearing blogger like me would have a hard time believing that any conspiratorial pressure could be applied to my local paper.  Perhaps the family requested the change or the original article was in error. It’s hard to say.

But I do know what I read. And, the internet archive “Way Back Machine”  showed the URL as being updated on March 31, 2020 and again on April 2, 2020, but the initial article was not archived.  Now I wish I’d have taken a screenshot of, or printed, the original post.

Why?

Because of, as delineated in my last six Coronavirus articles, the dubious origins and timing of the outbreak, the coinciding events, how COVID-19 has been reported, and the questionable responses of governments and organizations around the world.

Everything is suspect and it’s not difficult to differentiate between reporting and propaganda; because there’s an agenda behind propaganda.  Always an agenda.  That said, it is difficult to discern truth in a bubble – which is basically what America has become – an electronic bubble full of colorful programming and strategic deception.

You can call me a conspiracy theorist and that’s fine; although I prefer critical thinker.  For example, is it a “conspiracy” when a pandemic “exercise” undertaken by specific “players” is publically known?   As stated in my last article:

….. there have been many oddities during the Coronavirus outbreak.  One peculiarity is how the same players consistently appear to advance the narrative; to wit, Bill Gates, John Hopkins University, the Centers for Disease Control (CDC), and the World Health Organization (WHO).  These show up almost everywhere Coronavirus tales are told and, perhaps unsurprisingly, participated in the October 2019 Event 201 Pandemic Exercise – a near-exact simulation which took place a mere few weeks before the current COVID-19  outbreak went viral globally.

Even on the Event 201 website the “prominent individuals from global business, government, and public health” who participated were identified as “players” which, in fact, should be interpreted as practicing for the real thing.

Again, please note how an entity entitled the “World Economic Forum” co-sponsored the Event 201 exercise along with the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation & John Hopkins University:

Event 201

The Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security in partnership with the World Economic Forum and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation hosted Event 201, a high-level pandemic exercise on October 18, 2019, in New York, NY. The exercise illustrated areas where public/private partnerships will be necessary during the response to a severe pandemic in order to diminish large-scale economic and societal consequences.

And now consider this article dated March 31, 2020 describing a “project” the World Economic Forum “has christened” as “Known Traveler Digital Identity (KTDI)”.

KTDI is a “surveillance-by-design” vision for tracking and control of travelers…

KTDI would use a blockchain-based distributed ledger to bind together, through an app on a traveler’s mobile device, all of the following data:

– Biometrics (initially facial images, possibly also fingerprints, etc.)

– Government-issued ID credentials (passport number, etc.)

– Travel history including logs of border crossings, hotel stays, and possibly also car rentals and/or other events

– Purchase logs and possibly bank account information and/or other financial and transaction records

– Pre-crime predictive “risk assessment” and profiling scores generated at each “intervention” point before and during each trip or transaction

Additionally, Microsoft founder Bill Gates has been all over the news lately advocating for new initiatives such as “disease surveillance, including a case database that is instantly accessible to relevant organizationsand rules requiring countries to share information” and “Digital Certificates  to be issued to those who have been tested for COVID-19.”

Gates has also recently offered his unsolicited national advice on “best-case scenarios” for American “total isolation” measures as well as “social distancing” and “mandated shutdowns”.   Moreover, during a CNN Global Town Hall on March 26, 2020 Gates outlined three steps for the U.S. Government’s response to the COVID-19 outbreak to include lockdowntesting, and vaccination.

Did you vote to elect Bill Gates to advise on public policy in America?  Because I didn’t.  Was he appointed by someone?  Because, paradoxically, we’re witnessing the founder of a software company that spies on its customers now advising a government that violates the constitutional rights of its citizens.

Should it be any surprise, therefore, the response to COVID-19 has served the Orwellian ends of tyranny, centralization, and control?

In an article from early March 2020 entitled “Six Reasons Why Covid-19 Fails The Sniff Test”, I wrote:

It also has become completely obvious that certain names/entities consistently appear in the COVID-19® coverage (in both the mainstream and alternative media): The Gates Foundation, John Hopkins University, and UK’s The Guardian.

And a recent article posted a few days ago described nine governors of U.S. states “resisting stay-at-home orders”  and how the pressure brought to bear on them has been formidable; perhaps not unlike the pressure American citizens now face if they don’t wear masks in public. Contained in the above-linked article is a map courtesy of The Guardian, Event 201 sponsor John Hopkins University and, apparently, George Orwell:

Notice how the polka-dots are blood-red?  It’s like the splatter on a wall at a murder scene – all for psychological effect.  Because nothing is random.

In the meantime, citizen journalists are ignoring their shelter-in-place orders to see if there are other reasons why “authorities” want people to remain in their homes.  The below video demonstrates a stark contrast between official Orwellian narratives versus the cell-phone footage of multiple Americans at various hospitals around the country.  It is over 27-minutes in length but, at the very least, view the 4.5-minute segment from the 17:45 mark to the 22:23 mark where an administrator of an urgent care facility assaults a citizen journalist for merely asking questions:

Furthermore, other videos have been posted online including dummies being used in (apparently) staged pandemic footage and one even by a hospital worker who claims Coronavirus is a lie.

Can you explain this?  Because I can’t.  In fact, it raises more questions.  Why would locals participate in a cover-up?  What kind of leverage could be applied on them to lie? And if there is something amiss afoot – as the multiple videos seem to show – wouldn’t there at least be some more whistleblowers? I mean, wouldn’t more patriots emerge to confirm any deception and pressure?  And, why haven’t the videos been censored on YouTube?

Regardless, look around and see how far the entire nation has progressed in such a short time.

This last weekend, I drove to a big box store for some lumber and outdoor supplies as the wife rode along to pick up a few items at a nearby grocery. Inside the big box retail center, several customers were wearing masks and some had on rubber gloves. The cashiers now check people out behind sheets of plexiglas as the new authoritarian messaging sounds “social-distancing” instructions overhead and even now barks orders up from the floor: “WAIT HERE”

At the grocery, I remained in the rig as the wife completed her shopping.  A masked female Caucasian placed her items in her car, doused her hands with sanitizer, lit up a smoke, and then drove away. Another woman returned to an SUV where her husband and kids awaited. The man popped the hatch and secured their groceries as his wife returned the cart. They both hand sanitized and drove away. A black woman exited, got in her car, checked her phone and drove away.

There’s no denying the fact COVID-19 has, at the very least, infected the minds of the masses. It has become a VERY big deal worldwide. Perhaps because it is a bioweapon killing legions of folks. Yet I told my wife I’m having difficulty accepting the new dystopia because my instincts tell me the billionaires have gaslighted the world – that it’s an illuminati mind-f*ck.

Still, at the same time, I know a young man who recently came back from spring break and now has all of the COVID-19 symptoms. He was denied a test by his local hospital and told to self-quarantine. Then my wife read me a tweet from a nurse who said not to believe any of the reports we see on television. She said they’re only working half shifts at her hospital.

And, yet, the psychological suppression is complete in all but a few, and most Americans now remain in shock. They’re scared because it has become such a big deal. They see it every day; many from behind their masks.

Currently, small businesses have collapsed and Wal-Mart has gained new dictatorial powers to the point of restricting how people can move and shop in their stores; and concurrently denying the ability of customers to grow their own food by mandating garden items as NON-essential.

Undeniably, the Centralizers have the momentum.  Or, rather, the momentum has been building for decades.  Anything outside the domain of the Centralizers has been deemed a threat: growing food, harvesting rainwater, or even treating COVID-19 with malaria drugs and/or hydroxychloroquine.

Coronavirus has become the musical force of musician Frank Zappa’s “Joe’s Garage” that so threatened the “Central Scrutinizer”:

 This is the CENTRAL SCRUTINIZER… it is my responsibility to enforce all the laws that haven’t been passed yet. It is also my responsibility to alert each and every one of you to the potential consequences of various ordinary everyday activities you might be performing which could eventually lead to The Death Penalty….

.. Our studies have shown that this horrible force is so dangerous to society at large that laws are being drawn up at this very moment to stop it forever! Cruel and inhuman punishments are being carefully described in tiny paragraphs so they won’t conflict with the Constitution … which, itself, is being modified in order to accommodate THE FUTURE.

It remains to be seen whether the New Society transitions into tyrannical centralization or neo-localism; even if the momentum currently favors the former.   To be sure, we have progressed to the point it would take a nation of rugged individualists and freethinkers, indeed, to turn this coronavirus-riddled ship around in time to arrive in a new age of innovation, localism, and self-reliance.

But, hey, anything can happen, right?

Well, maybe not.

No matter what, though, understand this:  The billionaires are completely committed. They’ve crossed the Rubicon; they’ve passed the point of no return.  They can’t go back because this either ends with them against walls and hanging from ropes or with the masses in digital chains. And they’re very close to succeeding.

It’s a war. And, so far, the momentum is on one side.

It is possible the narrative may be unraveling, however, because I know some sleepy sheeple who are now questioning the official reports. So maybe it means we’re close too. But close never wins anything. Not in a war.

In the meantime, the media onslaught is dialed to maximum volume.   The other night I saw a commercial on TV where the following message was repeated several times:

Staying home saves lives!

And I started to wonder if that wasn’t a threat?

We also now have helicopters flying above American public spaces dictating Orwellian messages to the proles:

For your own safety and for your family’s safety, please maintain social distancing“.

Doesn’t that sound like a threat? I might think so if I didn’t fully understand how government’s throughout history have always been completely dedicated to the welfare of their citizens.  The State is here to protect and serve, correct?  Because…  if even TIGERS in a New York Zoo can get Coronavirus, then it must be bad. Super bad. We must be protected. We must be safe.

And the babies!  The poor little babies.

We must think of the children!

I wonder if historians looking back on this time will comprehend the paradoxes:  As societies ostensibly sought to save each other, they oppressed one another; in a time of social distancing families sheltered-in-place together; and, as headlines screamed, people wearing masks were silent.

A few nights ago, I looked up at the stars and they seemed more intimately near for some reason. I was thinking about summer coming soon and thought of the neighbor kids home from school playing under the sun.

I contemplated the old Bible stories: Of those who built their houses on sand compared to those who built on a solid foundation. How the storms came and the wind blew, and all was carried away but for some. Also Noah’s Ark and the fate of those drowning unprepared.

I considered Neo in The Matrix as well, when my kid and I were experimenting with Zoom video conferencing while on two separate floors of the same home. We were exploring privacy settings and I wanted to see some of the hosting configurations so I stepped away from my office to go look through the other portal.  Soon, I was peering down back into my own tiny world. Without me, my office looked like a set on a Hollywood stage. It was surreal. Like I had passed on and was floating above…. or merely remembering.  I wondered if there was a difference.

Coronavirus has driven us even further into the grid – where gnostic spirits, and hidden eyes, can see. And strange ears hear. The cameras now peer into private honeycombs all throughout an immense hive of lives separated.

My own custom-built system has no camera or audio capabilities, but I can hook up a video/audio feed through USB and disconnect when not in use. Of course, all the Zoom settings default away from privacy; like our smart(?)phones and all of the other apps in the Matrix.

It won’t be a virus that kills us in the end.  History will show we died of convenience.


Tyler Durden

Wed, 04/08/2020 – 16:20

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/3e6rO0T Tyler Durden

Stocks Bounce On ‘Peak Virus’ Hope Despite World’s Deadliest Day Yet

Stocks Bounce On ‘Peak Virus’ Hope Despite World’s Deadliest Day Yet

After the deadliest virus day in the world yesterday, today started with optimistic comments by Fauci about a turning point and the total deaths likely be lower than predicted… only to be crushed by the deadliest day ever in UK, the deadliest day ever in New York and New Jersey, and Italy new cases re-accelerate… and the biggest plunge in consumer confidence ever… and the lowest home purchase mortgage applications.

Worst day yet…

Source: Bloomberg

Screw it – buy Mortimer buy… it appeared that the algos had already made their mind up as every dip was bought today back to yesterday’s highs…

Source: Bloomberg

The market ripped all day but once again – in the last hour there was some weakness again…

Notably The Dow and the S&P made lower highs today…

As Bespoke notes, the S&P 500’s close above 2684.88 today means we are in a new bull market, and each of the last three bull markets (starting 11/20/08, 3/9/09, and current) will have entered bull market territory within 12 or fewer trading days of the bear market low.

Another epic 3-day short-squeeze deja vu all over again…

Source: Bloomberg

VIX refuses to play along with the bullish pump…

Source: Bloomberg

Look over there!

Oil prices mirrored yesterday’s contract-roll/settlement puke by going vertically higher around 1430ET…

WTI settled around 6% higher because of the Algerian Oil Minister, the same day the EIA reported the largest ever inventory build…

Gold was flat on the day…

The Dollar was also flat on the day – roundtripping overnight gains to end unchanged…

Source: Bloomberg

Treasury yields were mixed today with the short-end outperforming once again (2Y -1bps, 30Y +7bps)…

Source: Bloomberg

While the moves have been of note, we remain rather range bound still…

Source: Bloomberg

The yield curve steepened dramatically…

Source: Bloomberg

Cryptos held on to their gains today…

Source: Bloomberg

Finally,  despite every economist knowing what a bloodbath it was likely to be, economic data has still massively disappointed expectations…

Source: Bloomberg

And fun-durr-mentals don’t matter again…

Source: Bloomberg

And don’t forget its jobless claims day tomorrow (and Friday is closed in the US and Europe, and Europe is closed Monday).


Tyler Durden

Wed, 04/08/2020 – 16:01

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/3c47iMI Tyler Durden

S&P Futures Surge 20 Points In One Tick On $2BN MOC Buy Imbalance

S&P Futures Surge 20 Points In One Tick On $2BN MOC Buy Imbalance

In a mirror image of yesterday’s last 10 minutes action, when the S&P dumped by 40 points in seconds, when a $2.4BN “market on close” sale imbalance was announced at 3:50pm ET…

… moments ago, at exactly 350pm again when the market on close imbalance was unveiled, and revealed that there was $2 billion left to buy, the Emini future (i.e., the S&P500) spiked higher by 20 points, from 2,732 to 2,752, which was also the session high as algos scrambled to frontrun the residual buy orders in the last minutes of trading.

As a reminder, this is at least the 4th time in the past two weeks – it started on March 26 – that the MOC imbalance announcement has led to a stunning move in the market, a striking phenomenon which is attributable to one simple thing: there is absolutely no liquidity in the market, and as a result the headline MOC announcement is sufficient to send the entire market surging or tumbling just due to the end of day rebalance, which as we reported last night, is now wreaking havoc on both option pricing and realized volatility.


Tyler Durden

Wed, 04/08/2020 – 16:00

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2xZI7w5 Tyler Durden

Fifth Circuit Reinstates Texas Ban That Banned “Non-Essential” Medical Procedures, Including Most Abortions

From yesterday’s In re Abbott, Fifth Circuit Judge Stuart Kyle Duncan, joined by Judge Jennifer Walker Elrod:

To preserve critical medical resources during the escalating COVID-19 pandemic [especially “PPE,” personal protective equipment], on March 22, 2020, the Governor of Texas issued executive order GA-09, which postpones non-essential surgeries and procedures until 11:59 p.m. on April 21, 2020…. [The order] applies to all licensed healthcare professionals and facilities in Texas and requires that they:

“postpone all surgeries and procedures that are not immediately medically necessary to correct a serious medical condition of, or to preserve the life of, a patient who without immediate performance of the surgery or procedure would be at risk for serious adverse medical consequences or death, as determined by the patient’s physician.”

Importantly, the order “shall not apply to any procedure that, if performed in accordance with the commonly accepted standard of clinical practice, would not deplete the hospital capacity or the personal protective equipment needed to cope with the COVID-19 disaster.” Failure to comply with the order may result in administrative or criminal penalties …. The order automatically expires after 11:59 p.m. on April 21, 2020, but can be modified, amended, or superseded….

GA-09 applies to abortion providers (alongside providers of many other medical services), and the District Court issued a temporary restraining order against enforcing it. The Fifth Circuit majority essentially vacated the injunction, but left open—grudgingly or not, you decide—the possibility that GA-09 might be blocked as to those women for whom it essentially denies an abortion (because they are close to viability, past which abortions become illegal) rather than just delaying it:

We emphasize the limits of our decision, which is based only on the record before us. The district court has scheduled a telephonic preliminary injunction hearing for April 13, 2020, when all parties will presumably have the chance to present evidence on the validity of applying GA-09 in specific circumstances. The district court can then make targeted findings, based on competent evidence, about the effects of GA-09 on abortion access….

Respondents will have the opportunity to show at the upcoming preliminary injunction hearing that certain applications of GA-09 may constitute an undue burden under Casey, if they prove that, “beyond question,” GA-09’s burdens outweigh its benefits in those situations…. {[I]n their stay opposition, Respondents argue that GA-09 cannot apply to “patients whose pregnancies will, before the expiration of the stay, reach or exceed twenty-two weeks LMP [“last menstrual period”], the gestational point at which abortion may no longer be provided in Texas.” As Petitioners point out, if competent evidence shows that a woman is in that position, nothing prevents her from seeking as-applied relief.}

We do not decide at this stage … whether an injunction narrowly tailored to particular circumstances would pass muster under the Jacobson framework [more on that framework below -EV]. These are issues that the parties may pursue at the preliminary injunction stage, where Respondents will bear the burden to prove, “by a clear showing,” that they are entitled to relief. Cf. Ayotte v. Planned Parenthood (2006) (injunction should be tailored to “[o]nly [the] few applications” of challenged statute that “would present a constitutional problem”)….

Before getting into the long excerpts from the long majority and dissenting opinions (and I’m not even including the complicated procedural debates), here’s my quick view: I think that GA-09 should indeed be viewed as invalid as to women who are near viability, and thus would entirely lose their right to abortion if the abortion is delayed.

I don’t read Jacobson v. Massachusetts (1905), the mandatory vaccination case about which you’ll read much more below, as generally requiring broad deference in such a situation. Rather, in my view the key point in Jacobson, which the Court repeated often, was that vaccination had been broadly accepted as, practically speaking, not much of a practical burden on anyone—though the vaccine available at the time carried considerable risk for the person, it was much less than remaining unvaccinated (and of course the death rate from smallpox is vast, likely at least ten times more than that of coronavirus). Mandatory vaccination still burdened people’s freedom, because the Court generally recognized a general right not to be subjected to medical procedures against one’s will. But its practical burden on people’s lives was limited.

It doesn’t follow that Jacobson would call for equal deference to governmental judgments when the law denies a constitutional right in a way that has a deep practical effect on the rightsholder’s life, as when postponing an abortion makes it illegal. That, I think, would be much more clearly “a plain, palpable invasion of rights secured by the fundamental law” (at least the fundamental law as the Court interpreted it in Casey)—especially when the risk created by recognizing the right would be much more attenuated.

In any event, back to what actual judges, rather than just law professors, think. Here’s the majority’s substantive analysis, which relied extensively on Jacobson:

{In Jacobson, the Supreme Court considered a claim that the state’s compulsory vaccination law—enacted amidst a growing smallpox epidemic in Cambridge, Massachusetts—violated the defendant’s Fourteenth Amendment right “to care for his own body and health in such way as to him seems best.” The Court rejected this claim. Famously, it explained that the “liberty secured by the Constitution … does not import an absolute right in each person to be, at all times and in all circumstances, wholly freed from restraint.” Rather, “a community has the right to protect itself against an epidemic of disease which threatens the safety of its members.” In describing a state’s police power to combat an epidemic, the Court explained:

“[I]n every well-ordered society charged with the duty of conserving the safety of its members the rights of the individual in respect of his liberty may at times, under the pressure of great dangers, be subjected to such restraint, to be enforced by reasonable regulations, as the safety of the general public may demand.”

The Supreme Court has repeatedly acknowledged this principle. See, e.g., Lawton v. Steele (1894) (recognizing that “the state may interfere wherever the public interests demand it” and “discretion is necessarily vested in the legislature to determine, not only what the interests of the public require, but what measures are necessary for the protection of such interests”); Compagnie Francaise de Navigation a Vapeur v. La. State Bd. of Health (1902) (upholding Louisiana’s right to quarantine passengers aboard vessel—even where all were healthy—against a Fourteenth Amendment challenge); Prince v. Massachusetts (1944) (noting that “[t]he right to practice religion freely does not include liberty to expose the community … to communicable disease”); United States v. Caltex (1952) (acknowledging that “in times of imminent peril—such as when fire threatened a whole community—the sovereign could, with immunity, destroy the property of a few that the property of many and the lives of many more could be saved”).}

“[U]nder the pressure of great dangers,” constitutional rights may be reasonably restricted “as the safety of the general public may demand.” Jacobson. That settled rule allows the state to restrict, for example, one’s right to peaceably assemble, to publicly worship, to travel, and even to leave one’s home. The right to abortion is no exception. See Roe v. Wade (1973) (citing Jacobson); Planned Parenthood v. Casey (1992) (same); Gonzales v. Carhart (2007) (same). {Jacobson governs a state’s emergency restriction of any individual right, not only the right to abortion. The same analysis would apply, for example, to an emergency restriction on gathering in large groups for public worship during an epidemic. See Prince v. Massachusetts (1944) (“The right to practice religion freely does not include liberty to expose the community … to communicable disease.”).} … [And] “[i]t is no part of the function of a court” to decide which measures are “likely to be the most effective for the protection of the public against disease.” Jacobson, 197 U.S. at 30….

To be sure, individual rights secured by the Constitution do not disappear during a public health crisis, but the Court plainly stated that rights could be reasonably restricted during those times. Importantly, the Court narrowly described the scope of judicial authority to review rights-claims under these circumstances: review is “only” available

“if a statute purporting to have been enacted to protect the public health, the public morals, or the public safety, has no real or substantial relation to those objects, or is, beyond all question, a plain, palpable invasion of rights secured by the fundamental law.”

Elsewhere, the Court similarly described this review as asking whether power had been exercised in an “arbitrary, unreasonable manner,” or through “arbitrary and oppressive” regulations.

Jacobson did emphasize, however, that even an emergency mandate must include a medical exception for “[e]xtreme cases.” Thus, the vaccination mandate could not have applied to an adult where vaccination would exacerbate a “particular condition of his health or body.” In such a case, the judiciary would be “competent to interfere and protect the health and life of the individual concerned.” At the same time, Jacobson disclaimed any judicial power to second-guess the state’s policy choices in crafting emergency public health measures: “Smallpox being prevalent and increasing at Cambridge, the court would usurp the functions of another branch of government if it adjudged, as matter of law, that the mode adopted under the sanction of the state, to protect the people at large was arbitrary, and not justified by the necessities of the case.” … “It is no part of the function of a court or a jury to determine which one of two modes was likely to be the most effective for the protection of the public against disease. That was for the legislative department to determine in the light of all the information it had or could obtain.” ….

Jacobson remains good law. See, e.g., Kansas v. Hendricks (1997) (recognizing Fourteenth Amendment liberties may be restrained even in civil contexts, relying on Jacobson); Hickox v. Christie (D.N.J. 2016) (rejecting, based on Jacobson, a § 1983 lawsuit concerning 80-hour quarantine of nurse returning from treating Ebola patients in Sierra Leone). And, most importantly for the present case, nothing in the Supreme Court’s abortion cases suggests that abortion rights are somehow exempt from the Jacobson framework. Quite the contrary, the Court has consistently cited Jacobson in its abortion decisions….

The majority then turned to applying Jacobson:

The first Jacobson inquiry asks whether GA-09 lacks a “real or substantial relation” to the crisis Texas faces…. GA-09 is supported by findings that (1) “a shortage of hospital capacity or personal protective equipment would hinder efforts to cope with the COVID-19 disaster,” and (2) “hospital capacity and personal protective equipment are being depleted by surgeries and procedures that are not medically necessary to correct a serious medical condition or to preserve the life of a patient.” The order also references, and reinforces, the Governor’s prior executive order, GA-08, “aimed at slowing the spread of COVID-19.” Accordingly, GA-09 instructs licensed health care professionals and facilities to postpone non-essential surgeries and procedures until 11:59 p.m. on April 21, 2020….

To be sure, GA-09 is a drastic measure, but that aligns it with the numerous drastic measures Petitioners and other states have been forced to take in response to the coronavirus pandemic. Faced with exponential growth of COVID-19 cases, states have closed schools, sealed off nursing homes, banned social gatherings, quarantined travelers, prohibited churches from holding public worship services, and locked down entire cities. These measures would be constitutionally intolerable in ordinary times, but are recognized as appropriate and even necessary responses to the present crisis. So, too, GA-09. As the state’s infectious disease expert points out, “[g]iven the risk of transmission in health care settings” there is “a sound basis for limiting all surgeries except those that are immediately medically necessary so as to prevent the spread of COVID 19.” …

{[As to the use of PPE in abortions,] Respondents’ complaint states that clinicians use “gloves, a surgical mask, and protective eyewear” for surgical abortions. Their declarations similarly attest that surgical abortions consume sterile and non-sterile gloves, masks, gowns, and shoe covers. Second-trimester abortions require more extensive PPE, including face shields. After a surgical abortion, a provider examines the fetal tissue in a pathology laboratory, which requires a gown, face shield or goggles, shoe covers, and gloves…. Respondents assert PPE is not used in “providing the pills” for medication abortions, whereas Petitioners counter that, for medication abortions, Texas requires a physical examination, ultrasound, and follow-up visits—all of which consume PPE. Petitioners also point out that some number of medication abortions result in incomplete abortions that require hospitalization. The dissent appears to accept at face value Respondents’ representations about how medication abortions consume PPE. We think that evidentiary determination is better left to the district court at the preliminary injunction stage.}

The second Jacobson inquiry asks whether GA-09 is “beyond question, in palpable conflict with the Constitution.” … Properly understood, GA-09 merely postpones certain non-essential abortions, an emergency measure that does not plainly violate Casey in the context of an escalating public health crisis…. {Respondents imply that GA-09 is effectively indefinite in duration. For example, they claim that “[f]or many women, the denial of access to abortion will be permanent … given the uncertain duration of the emergency.” But the district court did not temporarily restrain some indefinite regulation; it restrained GA-09, which by all accounts expires on April 21, 2020. If anything, Respondents’ concern about the indefinite duration “of the emergency” serves to strengthen Petitioners’ position that “extraordinary measures” must be taken now to mitigate the “‘exponential increase’ in COVID-19 cases … expected over the next few days and weeks.”}

The order is a concededly valid public health measure that applies to “all surgeries and procedures,” does not single out abortion, and merely has the effect of delaying certain non-essential abortions. Moreover, the order has an exemption for serious medical conditions, comporting with Jacobson‘s requirement that health measures “protect the health and life” of susceptible individuals. Indeed, the exemption in GA-09 goes well beyond the exceptions for “[e]xtreme cases” Jacobson discussed….

[Indeed, u]nder Casey, courts must ask whether an abortion restriction is “undue,” which requires “consider[ing] the burdens a law imposes on abortion access together with the benefits those laws confer.” The district court was required to do this analysis—that is, it should have asked whether GA-09 imposes burdens on abortion that “beyond question” exceed its benefits in combating the epidemic Texas now faces. But that analysis would have required careful parsing of the evidence…. (Casey “place[s] considerable weight upon evidence … presented in judicial proceedings” ….) Any consideration of the evidence, however, is entirely absent from the district court’s order….

In sum, based on this record we conclude that GA-09—an emergency measure that postpones certain non-essential abortions during an epidemic—does not “beyond question” violate the constitutional right to abortion….

[A] court must at the very least weigh the potential injury to the public health when it considers enjoining state officers from enforcing emergency public health laws…. Instead of doing … this, the district court substituted its ipse dixit for the Governor’s reasoned judgment, bluntly concluding that “[t]he benefits of a limited potential reduction in the use of some personal protective equipment by abortion providers is outweighed by the harm of eliminating abortion access in the midst of a pandemic that increases the risks of continuing an unwanted pregnancy.” …

As Jacobson repeatedly instructs, however, if the choice is between two reasonable responses to a public crisis, the judgment must be left to the governing state authorities. “It is no part of the function of a court or a jury to determine which one of two modes [i]s likely to be the most effective for the protection of the public against disease.” Such authority properly belongs to the legislative and executive branches of the governing authority. In light of the massive and rapidly-escalating threat posed by the COVID-19 pandemic, “the court would usurp the functions of another branch of government if it adjudged, as matter of law, that the mode adopted under the sanction of the state, to protect the people at large was arbitrary, and not justified by the necessities of the case.” … We decline to engage in such “unwarranted judicial action.”

To be sure, the judiciary is not completely sidelined in a public health crisis. We have already explained that Respondents may seek more targeted relief, if they can prove their entitlement to it, at the preliminary injunction stage. Additionally, a court may inquire whether Texas has exploited the present crisis as a pretext to target abortion providers sub silentio. Respondents make allegations to that effect, contending that Petitioners are using GA-09 “to exploit the COVID-19 pandemic to achieve their longtime goal of banning abortion in Texas.” Nonetheless, on this record, we see no evidence that GA-09 was meant to exploit the pandemic in order to ban abortion or was crafted “as some kind of ruse to unreasonably delay … abortion[s] past the point where a safe abortion could occur.”

To the contrary, GA-09 applies to a whole host of medical procedures and regulates abortions evenhandedly with those other procedures. The order itself does not even mention abortion—or any other particular procedure—at all. Instead, it refers broadly to “all surgeries or procedures” that meet its criteria…. [S]ome cosmetic, bariatric, orthopedic, and gynecologic procedures “are being suspended” alongside abortions…. [T]he Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services have recommended postponing several other critical procedures, including endoscopies and colonoscopies, and even some oncological and cardiovascular procedures for low-risk patients. This evidence undermines Respondents’ contention that GA-09 exploits the present crisis to ban abortion. Respondents will have the opportunity, of course, to present additional evidence in conjunction with the district court’s preliminary injunction hearing scheduled for April 13, 2020. Our decision, however, must be limited to the record before us. Based on that record, we cannot say that GA-09 is a pretext for targeting abortion….

{[T]he dissent contends that “[r]estricting contact between abortion providers and their patients cannot further the goals of GA-09 if the same order permits in-person contact between providers and patients in other settings.” But this is true of all surgeries and procedures. Nonetheless, in part to “limit[] exposure of patients and staff to the virus that causes COVID-19,” CMS recommends postponing “non-essential surgeries and other procedures.” GA-09 notes that it follows recommendations from “the President’s Coronavirus Task Force, the CDC, the U.S. Surgeon General, and the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services.” And the state’s infectious disease expert said that the risk of spreading the virus is real, “especially in the health care setting due to the proximity.” We reiterate that Jacobson commands that it is not the court’s role “to determine which one of two modes [i]s likely to be most effective for the protection of the public against disease.”}

Judges James Dennis dissented; first, he framed Jacobson somewhat differently than the majority did:

The majority claims that “Jacobson disclaimed any judicial power to second-guess the policy choices made by the state in crafting emergency public health measures.” But the Court did not conclude that an emergency situation deprives courts of their duty and power to uphold the constitution—quite the opposite, in fact.

The Court in Jacobson determined that the Massachusetts law should not be invalidated because “[s]mallpox being prevalent and increasing in Cambridge, the court would usurp the functions of another branch of government if it adjudged, as a matter of law, that the mode adopted under the sanction of the state, to protect the people at large was arbitrary, and not justified by the necessities of the case.” The Court certainly did not disclaim any power to so rule, under appropriate circumstances, however, explaining:

“We say necessities of the case, because it might be that an acknowledged power of a local community to protect itself against an epidemic threatening the safety of all might be exercised in particular circumstances and in reference to particular persons in such an arbitrary, unreasonable manner, or might go so far beyond what was reasonably required for the safety of the public, as to authorize or compel the courts to interfere for the protection of such persons.”

The Court in Jacobson also explained that it had previously “recognized the right of a state to pass sanitary laws, laws for the protection of life, liberty, [and] health … within its limits.” Id. (citing Hannibal & St. J.R. Co. v. Husen (1877)). While states have the right to pass such laws, the Court explained, the courts have a “duty to hold … invalid” laws that “went beyond the necessity of the case, and, under the guise of exerting a police power, invaded the domain of Federal authority, and violated rights secured by the Constitution.”

Thus, the Court clearly anticipated that courts would exercise judicial oversight over a state’s decision to restrict personal liberties during emergencies. Jacobson merely acknowledged that what is reasonable during an emergency is different from what is reasonable under normal circumstances, and that courts must not act as super-executives in an emergency. Given the language of Jacobson, then, the Court was concerned with both what the majority focuses on—the state’s ability to adequately protect its citizens during a public health crisis—and what the majority ignores—the courts’ ability to protect citizens’ constitutional rights when states attempt to unjustifiably seize and wield power in the name of the health and safety….

And he applied Jacobson thus:

This case is clearly distinguishable from Jacobson. There, the city required its citizens to get a smallpox vaccine to stop the spread of a smallpox outbreak. The measure adopted by the city related directly to the public health crisis—every citizen who did not receive the vaccine could actively spread the disease, and therefore mandatory vaccination actively curbed the disease’s spread. The thread connecting GA-09 to combatting COVID-19 is more attenuated—premised not on the idea that abortion providers are spreading the virus, but that their continuing operation requires the use of resources that should be conserved and made available to healthcare workers fighting the outbreak. This reasoning requires the additional link that those PPE resources denied to abortion providers are indeed conserved, are significant in amount, and can realistically be reallocated to healthcare workers fighting COVID-19, a showing that Petitioners have not made….

The goals of GA-09 are furthered by restricting abortions, according to Petitioners, because abortions: (1) “reduce[] the scarce supply of PPE available to healthcare providers treating COVID-19 patients,” (2) “result[] in the hospitalization of women,” reducing hospital capacity for COVID-19 patients, and (3) “contribute[] to the spread of the COVID-19 virus.”

Though GA-09 does not define PPE, Respondents explain that the term is generally understood to refer to N95 respirators, surgical masks, non-sterile and sterile gloves, and disposable protective eyewear, gowns, and hair and shoe covers. In response to Petitioners’ argument that abortions will deplete PPE necessary for healthcare providers treating COVID-19 patients, Respondents contend that abortions utilize little or no PPE and that abortions are time-sensitive procedures.

Regarding the first point, whether an abortion takes no PPE or some PPE depends on the type of procedure. Procedural abortions in Texas are single-day procedures that, unlike surgeries, require no hospital bed, incision, general anesthesia, or sterile field. During the procedure, the providers use PPE such as gloves, a surgical mask, disposable protective eyewear, disposable or washable gowns, and hair and shoe covers. Most Respondents do not have N95 respirators, and those that do have only a small supply that they rarely, if ever, use. Medication abortions, which involve only taking medications by mouth, require no PPE to administer the medication, and may require the use of gloves only at pre- and post-procedure appointments, depending on the circumstances. Petitioners identify no other treatment through oral medication that would be affected by GA-09.

Moreover, Respondents point out that Petitioners’ PPE conservation argument mistakenly assumes that a patient unable to obtain an abortion will not otherwise need medical care that requires the consumption of PPE. Pregnant patients who cannot access abortion require prenatal care and must often undergo unplanned hospital visits. And to the extent patients are prevented from obtaining abortions altogether, childbirth and delivery require exponentially more PPE than an abortion. Denying pregnant patients access to abortion now may simply change the purpose for which the PPE is used, without any surplus that is able to be reallocated to healthcare workers treating COVID-19 patients.

Other pregnant patients with the resources to do so may choose to seek abortions outside of Texas—a result clearly contrary to Texas’s purported goal of avoiding the spread of the virus. GA-09 has already led patients to travel to other states to obtain abortion care in a pandemic, exposing patients and third parties to infection risks. One out-of-state physician stated that he treated 30 abortion patients from Texas in the week after the attorney general’s statement.

Petitioners also argue that the abortion restrictions are necessary to preserve hospital capacity, while Respondents point out that legal abortions are safe and almost never require hospitalization, and abortion care is substantially less likely to lead to hospitalization than caring for a patient with respect to full term pregnancy, childbirth, and post-natal care.

Finally, Petitioners argue that GA-09 as understood to ban all abortions provides the benefit of restricting contact between patients, medical staff, and physicians to help prevent the spread of COVID-19. While this may be true, the language of GA-09 reveals that it was not adopted to serve this interest. GA-09 exempts “any procedure … that would not deplete the hospital capacity or the personal protective equipment needed to cope with the COVID-19 disaster.” It excludes all forms of medical care save “surgeries and procedures,” and therefore does not contemplate restricting any other type of medical care that results in contact between providers and patients. Restricting contact between abortion providers and their patients cannot further the goals of GA-09 if the same order permits in-person contact between providers and patients in other settings.

Petitioners suggest that, in addition to these reasons, “Plaintiffs have identified no substantial burdens that will result from delaying elective abortions in accordance with [GA-09].” The majority agrees, concluding that “the expiration date makes GA-09 a delay, not a ban.” But it is painfully obvious that a delayed abortion procedure could easily amount to a total denial of that constitutional right: If currently scheduled abortions are postponed, many women will miss the small window of opportunity they have to access a legal abortion. Texas generally prohibits abortion after twenty-two weeks from the first day of the pregnant person’s last menstrual period (“LMP”), and therefore GA-09 has the potential to deny a woman’s constitutional right to an abortion where that right will lapse during the duration of GA-09. A woman has only a small window of opportunity to exercise her constitutional right to choose, and therefore Petitioners’ action in further narrowing that window will present a burden in many cases….

[P]rohibiting abortions for patients whose pregnancies will, before the expiration of GA-09, reach or exceed twenty-two weeks, the gestational point at which abortion may no longer be provided in Texas, represents “a plain, palpable invasion of rights secured by the fundamental law.” Even if such state action is successful in conserving the minimal PPE utilized in such procedures, as applied to this group of people, the state’s action constitutes an outright ban on previability abortion, which is “beyond question, in palpable conflict with the Constitution.” Jacobson (explaining that a state’s police power “might be exercised … in reference to particular persons in such an arbitrary, unreasonable manner, or might go so far beyond what was reasonably required for the safety of the public, as to authorize or compel the courts to interfere for the protection of such persons”). Insofar as GA-09 applies to this group of women, then, the district court’s result in allowing abortions to proceed was not patently erroneous.

Second, insofar as GA-09 bans procedural and medication abortions generally, this act “has no real or substantial relation to” Petitioners’ stated goal of conserving PPE and maintaining access to hospital beds and therefore it goes “beyond the necessity of the case, and, under the guise of exerting a police power … violate[s] rights secured by the Constitution.” In particular, abortions require minimal PPE (and medication abortions require no PPE to administer the medication), do not require the use of N95 respirator masks, and rarely require hospitalization. And as Respondents point out, the medical resources conserved by prohibiting abortions would simply be otherwise consumed through prenatal care by women forced to continue their pregnancies or incentivize women to travel out of state to obtain abortions, facilitating the spread of the virus. Finally, even assuming that delayed abortions in fact conserve PPE, Respondents have not demonstrated how the PPE could realistically be reallocated to healthcare workers fighting COVID-19….

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