Negative Rates In The US Are Virtually Guaranteed Now

Negative Rates In The US Are Virtually Guaranteed Now

Authored by Simon Black via SovereignMan.com,

On October 19, 1987, the US stock market suffered the worst crash in its more than 200 year history, dropping more than 23% in a matter of hours.

It wasn’t just in the United States, either. More than 20 major stock markets around the world, from London to Hong Kong to Australia, fell by similar amounts.

And economists estimate that stocks worldwide lost roughly $1.7 trillion of value (approximately 10% of global GDP at the time) during the October 1987 crash.

The next morning on October 20th, the Federal Reserve announced that they would do whatever it takes to support the economy.

And ten days later they cut interest rates by 0.5%.

Yesterday the Federal Reserve did the same thing. Stock markets worldwide have been jittery lately due to Corona Virus fears, so the Federal Reserve stepped in and cut interest rates by 0.5%.

Honestly there are so many things that are remarkable about this—

First, the Fed already has a regularly scheduled meeting coming up in two weeks on March 17th. But apparently they thought the situation was so severe that they held an emergency meeting yesterday and hastily voted to cut interest rates by 0.5%.

Just think about what that means: 30+ years ago, the Fed cut rates by half a percent after, literally, the worst day in the history of the stock market.

Today’s stock market turmoil is nowhere near as bad as it was in 1987. Sure, the market is down around 10% over the past two weeks.  But where is the law that says the stock market isn’t allowed to fall? Capitalism is all about risk and reward. There are supposed to be periods of decline.

But to the Fed, a 10% correction is catastrophic… SOOOOO catastrophic, in fact, that they couldn’t even wait two more weeks for their regularly scheduled meeting. They had to take immediate action to prop up the stock market.

Ironically, this interest rate cut caused investors to panic even more. After the Fed made its announcement, the Dow Jones Industrial Average plummeted another 800 points.

It’s as if the entire market collectively thought, “Holy cow, if the Fed is taking EMERGENCY action, things must be even worse than we thought.” So the rate cut had the opposite effect as intended.

The Fed also managed to confuse the hell out of everyone… which is something they’ve been doing a lot of lately.

Last year, for example, even when they insisted that the US economy was booming and the unemployment rate was at a record low, they still cut rates by 0.75%… which is typically something they would only do when there’s economic weakness.

And then, yesterday at 10am, the Fed announced that “the fundamentals of the US economy remain strong. . .” But just an hour later they changed their tune and said, “risks to the US outlook have changed materially.”

Go figure, the market tanked even more.

Perhaps most comical is that the entire episode was forgotten by this morning… and the only story that seems to be driving the market is the resurrection of Joe Biden.

So the Fed basically blew a 0.50% rate cut and has absolutely nothing to show for it.

Here’s why that matters…

In the crash of 1987 when the Fed cut interest rates, its benchmark rate was 7.25%. So a half-percent cut was not especially significant.

In 2000 when the US economy entered recession (and the stock market started to fall from its peak), the Fed’s benchmark rate was 6.5%.  So they had plenty of room to cut rates.

In 2007 when the US economy entered recession yet again (and the stock market started to fall from its peak), the Fed’s benchmark rate was 5.25%– still plenty of room to cut rates.

But as of yesterday morning, the Fed’s benchmark interest was just 1.75%. So a 0.5% cut is pretty huge. Do the math– they cut interest rates by nearly a third, down to 1.25%.

[ZH: The market is already demanding another 50bps-plus cut in March…]

This gives them VERY little room to cut rates further when the US economy enters recession, virtually guaranteeing that interest rates in the Land of the Free will go negative.

[ZH: in fact, the market is already pricing that rates will be just 37bps by Dec 2020]

Remember that, in a typical recession, the Fed cuts interest rates by an average of 5%.

Rates right now are only 1.25%… so we could easily see rates at MINUS 3 to 4%.

[ZH: Traders are rapidly ramping up their bets on The Fed going negative]

Just imagine paying money to deposit your savings at the bank (Wells Fargo will have so much fun), or being paid to borrow money…

That is now a very likely possibility in the most advanced economy in the world.

I probably don’t have to tell you this, but negative interest rates will almost certainly be very positive for gold prices, and gold-related investments.

More on that soon… because this emotional roller coaster is far from over.

*  *  *

And to continue learning how to ensure you thrive no matter what happens next in the world, I encourage you to download our free Perfect Plan B Guide.


Tyler Durden

Thu, 03/05/2020 – 13:50

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/3awVzFK Tyler Durden

New Images Emerge Of America’s First Covid-19 “Quarantine Village”

New Images Emerge Of America’s First Covid-19 “Quarantine Village”

We noted earlier this week that King County Chief Executive Dow Constantine said the final negotiations to purchase a motel and convert it into a Covid-19 quarantine village were underway.

On March 4, KOMO Seattle’s Matt Markovich ‘confirmed’ that the “first permanent quarantine village in Washington state for Covid-19 will be the EconoLodge in Kent. We also believe the City of Seattle and King County will establish 3 modular quarantine villages. West Seattle & North Seattle.”

It’s believed that King County officials paid upwards of $4 million for the 84-unit motel on Central Avenue.

The EconoLodge in Kent, which is in the heart of the Seattle–Tacoma metropolitan area, will be America’s first Covid-19 quarantine village. As cases and deaths surge in Washington state, officials aren’t constructing modular hospitals in two weeks like China did last month, but rather buying existing commercial properties, such as motels, and stuffing infected people within.

Markovich said another “Covid-19 quarantine village using modular units now underway at 1100 block of 128th St. in North Seattle. There has been no public announcement about this so far.”

Kent Mayor Dana Ralph was visibly upset that King County officials chose the EconoLodge in her district as an isolation center for Covid-19 patients. Mayor Ralph said, “there was no transparency.”

The Kent police chief was agitated as well by county officials. He said the city “cannot prevent” patients from leaving the motel.

You’re watching history in the making as the first Covid-19 quarantine village is erected in Washington state. Expect this to be the norm in cities across America if the virus outbreak worsens.


Tyler Durden

Thu, 03/05/2020 – 13:30

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2InEmCp Tyler Durden

Chuck Schumer’s Trumpian Attack on the Supreme Court Threatens the Judicial Independence That Democrats Claim To Defend

Democrats who bemoan President Donald Trump’s assaults on the independence of the judiciary and his attempts to create “alternative facts” cannot be taken seriously if they fail to condemn Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D–N.Y.) for threatening members of the Supreme Court who take positions he does not like and then falsely claiming he did nothing of the kind. If they remain silent, defend Schumer, or engage in obfuscating whataboutism, they will reveal themselves as unprincipled hacks who care about these issues only when they can be deployed as weapons against their political opponents.

“They’re taking away fundamental rights,” Schumer said yesterday at a pro-choice rally outside the Supreme Court as the justices considered the constitutionality of a Louisiana law requiring that physicians who perform abortions have admitting privileges at local hospitals. Turning to point at the Supreme Court building, he angrily added: “I want to tell you, Gorsuch, I want to tell you, Kavanaugh, you have released the whirlwind, and you will pay the price! You won’t know what hit you if you go forward with these awful decisions.”

Although the nature of that “price” was vague, the meaning of Schumer’s comments was plain: If Justices Neil Gorsuch and Brett Kavanaugh, Trump appointees whom Schumer opposed, dare to cross him by voting to uphold Louisiana’s law, they will suffer unpleasant consequences. Yet after Schumer’s threat drew a rare public rebuke from Chief Justice John Roberts, the senator’s spokesman blatantly lied about what his boss had said.

“Women’s health care rights are at stake and Americans from every corner of the country are in anguish about what the court might do to them,” said Justin Goodman, Schumer’s communications director. “Sen. Schumer’s comments were a reference to the political price Senate Republicans will pay for putting these justices on the court.” He said Roberts’ response was based on “the right wing’s deliberate misinterpretation of what Sen. Schumer said.”

After threatening Gorsuch and Kavanaugh, Schumer did say this: “The bottom line is very simple: We will stand with the American people. We will stand with American women. We will tell President Trump and Senate Republicans who have stacked the court with right-wing ideologues that you’re gonna be gone in November and you will never be able to do what you’re trying to do now, ever, ever again. You hear that over there on the far right? You’re gone in November.”

So it is true that Schumer warned his Republican colleagues in the Senate about the electoral consequences of confirming justices apt to uphold abortion restrictions. But it is also undeniably true that he threatened those justices by name while pointing at the Supreme Court. That is not a “deliberate misrepresentation.” It is what actually happened. We have the video. To its credit, CNN, one of the president’s least favorite news outlets, forthrightly described Goodman’s version of events as “false.”

Given what Schumer actually said, Roberts’ response was perfectly understandable: “Justices know that criticism comes with the territory, but threatening statements of this sort from the highest levels of government are not only inappropriate, they are dangerous. All Members of the Court will continue to do their job, without fear or favor, from whatever quarter.”

When it comes to defending the integrity of the judicial branch, Roberts has been evenhanded. Here is what he said in 2018 after Trump dismissed a decision against his asylum policy as the politically motivated work of “an Obama judge”:

We do not have Obama judges or Trump judges, Bush judges or Clinton judges. What we have is an extraordinary group of dedicated judges doing their level best to do equal right to those appearing before them. That independent judiciary is something we should all be thankful for.

Roberts returned to that theme last December in his annual report on the judiciary. “We should reflect on our duty to judge without fear or favor, deciding each matter with humility, integrity and dispatch,” he wrote. “As the new year begins, and we turn to the tasks before us, we should each resolve to do our best to maintain the public’s trust that we are faithfully discharging our solemn obligation to equal justice under law.”

Roberts was hardly the only public figure who objected to Schumer’s threat, which was criticized not only by conservative commentators but by legal scholars to their left. “These remarks by @SenSchumer were inexcusable,” Harvard law professor Laurence Tribe tweeted. “Chief Justice Roberts was right to call him on his comments. I hope the Senator, whom I’ve long admired and consider a friend, apologizes and takes back his implicit threat. It’s beneath him and his office.”

Neal Katyal, who served as principal deputy solicitor general during the Obama administration, concurred. “Thank you Larry for saying this,” he said. “I agree. We shouldn’t let Trump destroy decorum and respect across the board. I very much hope Senator Schumer apologizes, and we turn the page.”

The American Bar Association also chimed in. “The American Bar Association is deeply troubled by today’s statements from the Senate Minority Leader threatening two sitting justices of the U.S. Supreme Court over their upcoming votes in a pending case,” said ABA President Judy Perry Martinez. “Whatever one thinks about the merits of an issue before a court, there is no place for threats—whether real or allegorical. Personal attacks on judges by any elected officials, including the President, are simply inappropriate. Such comments challenge the reputation of the third, co-equal branch of our government; the independence of the judiciary; and the personal safety of judicial officers. They are never acceptable.”

Today Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R–Ky.) condemned Schumer’s comments on the Senate floor. “There is nothing to call this except a threat,” McConnell said. He accused Schumer of trying to “gaslight the entire country” by denying the substance of his tirade. “If he cannot even admit to saying what he said, we certainly cannot know what he meant,” McConnell said. “At the very best his comments were astonishingly reckless and extremely irresponsible.”

Sen. Josh Hawley (R–Mo.) wants to formalize that judgment. “I would call on Schumer to apologize, but we all know he has no shame,” he tweeted yesterday. “So tomorrow I will introduce a motion to censure Schumer for his pathetic attempt at intimidation of #SupremeCourt.”

Trump, who is in no position to claim the moral high ground on this issue, also got in his licks. “There can be few things worse in a civilized, law abiding nation, than a United States Senator openly, and for all to see and hear, threatening the Supreme Court or its Justices,” he tweeted yesterday. “This is what Chuck Schumer just did. He must pay a severe price for this!” Today he added that “Schumer has brought great danger to the steps of the United States Supreme Court!”

Schumer’s response today was only semi-apologetic:

I feel so passionately about this issue, and I feel so deeply the anger of women all across America about Senate Republicans and the courts working hand in glove to take down Roe v. Wade….Now, I should not have used the words I used. They didn’t come out the way I intended to. My point was that there would be political consequences…for President Trump and Senate Republicans if the Supreme Court, with the newly confirmed justices, stripped away a woman’s right to choose. Of course I didn’t intend to suggest anything other than political and public opinion consequences for the Supreme Court, and it is a gross distortion to imply otherwise. I’m from Brooklyn. We speak in strong language. I shouldn’t have used the words I did, but in no way was I making a threat.

Schumer feels passionately about abortion rights. Many opponents of Roe v. Wade feel passionately about abortion, which they view as tantamount to child murder. Would Schumer accept their passion as an excuse for threatening judges who overturn legal restrictions on abortion?

Schumer is from Brooklyn. Donald Trump is from Queens. Would Schumer accept Trump’s birthplace or his tendency to “speak in strong language” as an excuse for questioning the legitimacy of a “so-called judge” who ruled against him, for saying another judge had “an inherent conflict of interest” because his parents were born in Mexico, or for dismissing an appeals court ruling he did not like as “a political decision”?

Before his confirmation, Gorsuch, one of the Trump-nominated justices whom Schumer threatened, expressed concern about such comments. “I know the men and women of the federal judiciary,” Gorsuch said. “I know how hard their job is, how much they often give up to do it, the difficult circumstances in which they do it…I know these people, how decent they are, and when anyone criticizes the honesty or integrity or the motives of a federal judge, I find that disheartening, I find that demoralizing, because I know the truth.”

If you believe that is a bunch of self-serving claptrap, that Trump is right when he suggests that judges (when they disagree with him, at least) are doing nothing more than following their own political prejudices, then you believe an independent judiciary is an illusion. If judges are simply politicians in robes, if they cannot be expected to set aside their personal preferences when they decide cases, that whole branch of government, which plays a vital role in upholding the rule of law, protecting people’s rights, and preventing the government from exceeding its constitutional limits, is fundamentally illegitimate. Likewise, if you think, as Schumer does, that judges should decide cases based on “political and public opinion consequences.”

The rule of law requires conscientious judges who, whatever the differences in their interpretive approaches, honestly try to apply the law “without fear or favor.” It also requires resisting political interference in judicial decisions, no matter the source of that threat. This is a chance for Democrats to show they believe in that principle even when it is politically inconvenient.

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You Don’t Become a “State Actor” Just by Getting Government Funding or Benefits,

A commenter on the Tulsi Gabbard v. Google thread writes:

If Google had never received a dime of local, county, state, or federal payola, and if Google had never assisted any state actor in the collection, maintenance, and sharing of data obtained pursuant to use of Google, and if there was no immunity from civil liability conferred upon Google for intentionally or negligently publishing defamatory material, or republishing the same, or for de-platforming the speech of others, then, I might be inclined to side with the Googlemeister.

[1.] As a legal matter, it’s clear: The First Amendment, by its own terms, applies only to the federal government; the Fourteenth Amendment applies the same rules to state and local governments; but private institutions—search engines, newspapers, employers, universities, landlords, and such—aren’t covered. That’s the so-called “state action doctrine” (with the “state” referring to the government, whether state or federal), and it explains why a newspaper or Google or others can pick and choose what to publish, what ads to run, and the like.

[2.] The Supreme Court held, in Rendell-Baker v. Kohn (1982), that government funding doesn’t make private entities “state actors.” If the government attaches speech-restrictive strings to the funding (e.g., “We’ll give you these funds only if you promise to restrict speech”), then the government may be held responsible for the speech restrictions. But if the government just gives the funds, and the private entity imposes speech restrictions entirely on its own, then there’s no First Amendment problem. And the Court held this in a case where the recipient was a private school that got 90% of its funding from the government.

[3.] Likewise, getting government benefits—even being given legal monopoly status (which Google doesn’t have)—doesn’t make you a state actor bound by the Bill of Rights. See Jackson v. Metropolitan Edison Co. (1974) (on which Rendell-Baker relied).

[4.] Now this all has to do with whether the Bill of Rights constrains the private entity; statutes aren’t subject to the state action doctrine, unless they are specifically limited to restricting the government. Congress imposes many statutory restrictions on private entities, whether attached to funding (as in Title VI or Title IX, which generally require recipients of federal funds not to discriminate based on race or sex) or not (as in Title VII, which generally bars most employers from discriminating, whether or not they get government funds). States might impose similar restrictions, though perhaps not on inherently interstate communications media.

Sometimes the First Amendment might itself constrain such restrictions on private entities (see, e.g., the Boy Scouts v. Dale case). But in any event, it takes a statute to restrain private entities this way, and Congress has never passed a statute purporting to limit Google’s ability to restrict speech on its platforms.

[5.] Of course, I’m talking here about the law as it is; some might argue for rejecting the state action doctrine, or for enacting statutory constraints on Google and the like. But that’s not the law today; and, if you think it ought to be the law, you might want to consider just what its scope should be: If you live in government-subsidized housing, should you be barred from ejecting guests based on their speech or their religious beliefs, on the theory that what you do on government-subsidized property becomes “state action”? If you get social security or the Earned Income Tax Credit or a government salary or similar benefits, should you be barred from engaging in viewpoint discrimination or religious discrimination in any projects you set up using that money? If you have a hard-to-get professional license—you’re a doctor or a lawyer or some such—should you likewise be subject to the First Amendment or the Due Process Clause or the Equal Protection Clause in all your professional decisions?

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Chuck Schumer’s Trumpian Attack on the Supreme Court Threatens the Judicial Independence That Democrats Claim To Defend

Democrats who bemoan President Donald Trump’s assaults on the independence of the judiciary and his attempts to create “alternative facts” cannot be taken seriously if they fail to condemn Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D–N.Y.) for threatening members of the Supreme Court who take positions he does not like, and then falsely claiming he did nothing of the kind. If they remain silent, defend Schumer, or engage in obfuscating whataboutism, they will reveal themselves as unprincipled hacks who care about these issues only when they can be deployed as weapons against their political opponents.

“They’re taking away fundamental rights,” Schumer said yesterday at a pro-choice rally outside the Supreme Court as the justices considered the constitutionality of a Louisiana law requiring that physicians who perform abortions have admitting privileges at local hospitals. Turning to point at the Supreme Court building, he angrily added: “I want to tell you, Gorsuch, I want to tell you, Kavanaugh, you have released the whirlwind, and you will pay the price! You won’t know what hit you if you go forward with these awful decisions.”

Although the nature of that “price” was vague, the meaning of Schumer’s comments was plain: If Justices Neil Gorsuch and Brett Kavanaugh, Trump appointees whom Schumer opposed, dare to cross him by voting to uphold Louisiana’s law, they will suffer unpleasant consequences. Yet after Schumer’s threat drew a rare public rebuke from Chief Justice John Roberts, the senator’s spokesman blatantly lied about what his boss had said.

“Women’s health care rights are at stake and Americans from every corner of the country are in anguish about what the court might do to them,” said Justin Goodman, Schumer’s communications director. “Sen. Schumer’s comments were a reference to the political price Senate Republicans will pay for putting these justices on the court.” He said Roberts’ response was based on “the right wing’s deliberate misinterpretation of what Sen. Schumer said.”

After threatening Gorsuch and Kavanaugh, Schumer did say this: “The bottom line is very simple: We will stand with the American people. We will stand with American women. We will tell President Trump and Senate Republicans who have stacked the court with right-wing ideologues that you’re gonna be gone in November and you will never be able to do what you’re trying to do now, ever, ever again. You hear that over there on the far right? You’re gone in November.”

So it is true that Schumer warned his Republican colleagues in the Senate about the electoral consequences of confirming justices apt to uphold abortion restrictions. But it is also undeniably true that he threatened those justices by name while pointing at the Supreme Court. That is not a “deliberate misrepresentation.” It is what actually happened. We have the video. To its credit, CNN, one of the president’s least favorite news outlets, forthrightly described Goodman’s version of events as “false.”

Given what Schumer actually said, Roberts’ response was perfectly understandable: “Justices know that criticism comes with the territory, but threatening statements of this sort from the highest levels of government are not only inappropriate, they are dangerous. All Members of the Court will continue to do their job, without fear or favor, from whatever quarter.”

When it comes to defending the integrity of the judicial branch, Roberts has been evenhanded. Here is what he said in 2018 after Trump dismissed a decision against his asylum policy as the politically motivated work of “an Obama judge”:

We do not have Obama judges or Trump judges, Bush judges or Clinton judges. What we have is an extraordinary group of dedicated judges doing their level best to do equal right to those appearing before them. That independent judiciary is something we should all be thankful for.

Roberts returned to that theme last December in his annual report on the judiciary. “We should reflect on our duty to judge without fear or favor, deciding each matter with humility, integrity and dispatch,” he wrote. “As the new year begins, and we turn to the tasks before us, we should each resolve to do our best to maintain the public’s trust that we are faithfully discharging our solemn obligation to equal justice under law.”

Roberts was not the only public figure who objected to Schumer’s threat, which was criticized not only by conservative commentators but by legal scholars to their left. “These remarks by @SenSchumer were inexcusable,” Harvard law professor Laurence Tribe tweeted. “Chief Justice Roberts was right to call him on his comments. I hope the Senator, whom I’ve long admired and consider a friend, apologizes and takes back his implicit threat. It’s beneath him and his office.”

Neal Katyal, who served as principal deputy solicitor general during the Obama administration, concurred. “Thank you Larry for saying this,” he said. “I agree. We shouldn’t let Trump destroy decorum and respect across the board. I very much hope Senator Schumer apologizes, and we turn the page.”

The American Bar Association also chimed in. “The American Bar Association is deeply troubled by today’s statements from the Senate Minority Leader threatening two sitting justices of the U.S. Supreme Court over their upcoming votes in a pending case,” said ABA President Judy Perry Martinez. “Whatever one thinks about the merits of an issue before a court, there is no place for threats—whether real or allegorical. Personal attacks on judges by any elected officials, including the President, are simply inappropriate. Such comments challenge the reputation of the third, co-equal branch of our government; the independence of the judiciary; and the personal safety of judicial officers. They are never acceptable.”

Today Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R–Ky.) condemned Schumer’s comments on the Senate floor. “There is nothing to call this except a threat,” McConnell said. He accused Schumer of trying to “gaslight the entire country” by denying the substance of his tirade. “If he cannot even admit to saying what he said, we certainly cannot know what he meant,” McConnell said. “At the very best his comments were astonishingly reckless and extremely irresponsible.”

Sen. Josh Hawley (R–Mo.) wants to formalize that judgment. “I would call on Schumer to apologize, but we all know he has no shame,” he tweeted yesterday. “So tomorrow I will introduce a motion to censure Schumer for his pathetic attempt at intimidation of #SupremeCourt.”

Trump, who is in no position to claim the moral high ground on this issue, also got in his licks. “There can be few things worse in a civilized, law abiding nation, than a United States Senator openly, and for all to see and hear, threatening the Supreme Court or its Justices,” he tweeted yesterday. “This is what Chuck Schumer just did. He must pay a severe price for this!” Today he added that “Schumer has brought great danger to the steps of the United States Supreme Court!”

Schumer’s response today was only semi-apologetic:

I feel so passionately about this issue, and I feel so deeply the anger of women all across America about Senate Republicans and the courts working hand in glove to take down Roe v. Wade….Now, I should not have used the words I used. They didn’t come out the way I intended to. My point was that there would be political consequences…for President Trump and Senate Republicans if the Supreme Court, with the newly confirmed justices, stripped away a woman’s right to choose. Of course I didn’t intend to suggest anything other than political and public opinion consequences for the Supreme Court, and it is a gross distortion to imply otherwise. I’m from Brooklyn. We speak in strong language. I shouldn’t have used the words I did, but in no way was I making a threat.

Schumer feels passionately about abortion rights. Many opponents of Roe v. Wade feel passionately about abortion, which they view as tantamount to child murder. Would Schumer accept their passion as an excuse for threatening judges who overturn legal restrictions on abortion?

Schumer is from Brooklyn. Donald Trump is from Queens. Would Schumer accept Trump’s birthplace or his tendency to “speak in strong language” as an excuse for questioning the legitimacy of a “so-called judge” who ruled against him, for saying another judge had “an inherent conflict of interest” because his parents were born in Mexico, or for dismissing an appeals court ruling he did not like as “a political decision”?

Before his confirmation, Gorsuch, one of the Trump-nominated justices whom Schumer threatened, expressed concern about such comments. “I know the men and women of the federal judiciary,” Gorsuch said. “I know how hard their job is, how much they often give up to do it, the difficult circumstances in which they do it…I know these people, how decent they are, and when anyone criticizes the honesty or integrity or the motives of a federal judge, I find that disheartening, I find that demoralizing, because I know the truth.”

If you believe that is a bunch of self-serving claptrap, that Trump is right when he suggests that judges (when they disagree with him, at least) are doing nothing more than following their own political prejudices, then you believe an independent judiciary is an illusion. If judges are simply politicians in robes, if they cannot be expected to set aside their personal preferences when they decide cases, that whole branch of government, which plays a vital role in upholding the rule of law, protecting people’s rights, and preventing the government from exceeding its constitutional limits, is fundamentally illegitimate. Likewise, if you think, as Schumer does, that judges should decide cases based on “political and public opinion consequences.”

The rule of law requires conscientious judges who, whatever the differences in their interpretive approaches, honestly try to apply the law “without fear or favor.” It also requires resisting political interference in judicial decisions, no matter the source of that threat. This is a chance for Democrats to show they believe in that principle even when it is politically inconvenient.

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You Don’t Become a “State Actor” Just by Getting Government Funding or Benefits,

A commenter on the Tulsi Gabbard v. Google thread writes:

If Google had never received a dime of local, county, state, or federal payola, and if Google had never assisted any state actor in the collection, maintenance, and sharing of data obtained pursuant to use of Google, and if there was no immunity from civil liability conferred upon Google for intentionally or negligently publishing defamatory material, or republishing the same, or for de-platforming the speech of others, then, I might be inclined to side with the Googlemeister.

[1.] As a legal matter, it’s clear: The First Amendment, by its own terms, applies only to the federal government; the Fourteenth Amendment applies the same rules to state and local governments; but private institutions—search engines, newspapers, employers, universities, landlords, and such—aren’t covered. That’s the so-called “state action doctrine” (with the “state” referring to the government, whether state or federal), and it explains why a newspaper or Google or others can pick and choose what to publish, what ads to run, and the like.

[2.] The Supreme Court held, in Rendell-Baker v. Kohn (1982), that government funding doesn’t make private entities “state actors.” If the government attaches speech-restrictive strings to the funding (e.g., “We’ll give you these funds only if you promise to restrict speech”), then the government may be held responsible for the speech restrictions. But if the government just gives the funds, and the private entity imposes speech restrictions entirely on its own, then there’s no First Amendment problem. And the Court held this in a case where the recipient was a private school that got 90% of its funding from the government.

[3.] Likewise, getting government benefits—even being given legal monopoly status (which Google doesn’t have)—doesn’t make you a state actor bound by the Bill of Rights. See Jackson v. Metropolitan Edison Co. (1974) (on which Rendell-Baker relied).

[4.] Now this all has to do with whether the Bill of Rights constrains the private entity; statutes aren’t subject to the state action doctrine, unless they are specifically limited to restricting the government. Congress imposes many statutory restrictions on private entities, whether attached to funding (as in Title VI or Title IX, which generally require recipients of federal funds not to discriminate based on race or sex) or not (as in Title VII, which generally bars most employers from discriminating, whether or not they get government funds). States might impose similar restrictions, though perhaps not on inherently interstate communications media.

Sometimes the First Amendment might itself constrain such restrictions on private entities (see, e.g., the Boy Scouts v. Dale case). But in any event, it takes a statute to restrain private entities this way, and Congress has never passed a statute purporting to limit Google’s ability to restrict speech on its platforms.

[5.] Of course, I’m talking here about the law as it is; some might argue for rejecting the state action doctrine, or for enacting statutory constraints on Google and the like. But that’s not the law today; and, if you think it ought to be the law, you might want to consider just what its scope should be: If you live in government-subsidized housing, should you be barred from ejecting guests based on their speech or their religious beliefs, on the theory that what you do on government-subsidized property becomes “state action”? If you get social security or the Earned Income Tax Credit or a government salary or similar benefits, should you be barred from engaging in viewpoint discrimination or religious discrimination in any projects you set up using that money? If you have a hard-to-get professional license—you’re a doctor or a lawyer or some such—should you likewise be subject to the First Amendment or the Due Process Clause or the Equal Protection Clause in all your professional decisions?

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Keep Calm, Carry On, Embrace The Suck

Keep Calm, Carry On, Embrace The Suck

Authored by Sven Henrich via NorthmanTrader.com,

Some thoughts on the current market situation: Awe-inspiring volatility in markets these days and headlines keep coming non stop.

It’s heaven for fans of volatility and action, but it’s also a very dangerous time for traders. The temptation is to chase every headline and every move.

$DJIA flies up over 1,000 points and drops another 1,000 the next day and then repeats. Just 2 weeks ago we were staring at 2-3 handle ranges on $SPX intra-day for hours on end.Things have changed for now, get used to it.

Bears are having a blast right now, just accept it:

Everybody can choose to approach these things as they wish, but my general view here is this:

The message: Keep calm and look at the larger technical picture and choose wisely when and where to get engaged.

For anyone that had positioned short into February last week was fantastic. Bulls that had their fun riding the Fed liquidity and either listened to the warning signs and got out or are trapped at much higher prices. That’s the nature of the beast and now we’re in a period of wide range chop:

I submit that nothing what we are seeing here currently is unusual, except it is more violent now with tons of uncertainty thrown in including the concern that central banks finally lose control.

I’ve described the situation as binary and it remains to this day. Central banks either will maintain control or they won’t. The virus situation impact will either be short and painful, or it will have longer term ramifications. Unknowable at this very moment.

But as you can see in the chart above we’ve had periods like this before, a bunch of back and forth while markets negotiate the price action that ultimately it either resolves higher or lower. Genius I know. But that’s just reality.

The key, from my perspective, is not to get chopped up in the wild back and forth, but rather be elective, identify potential patterns and levels and then act on them, but also not be stubborn about anything. Everything is a trade at the moment and being opportunistic helps.

My attitude here is to look for spots that look interesting, test out the levels and if they work (short or long) then ride the counter move and scale out along the way.

I showed an example from our subscriber feed on twitter yesterday (see thread), this one from the long side identifying the pivot price zone to come:

then highlighting the engagement zone:

And then we saw the violent reaction to the upside yesterday:

This pattern remains unconfirmed and looks to be in trouble as of this morning, but that was a massive rip to the upside yesterday as markets moved 4% higher in a day. And that’s the point: These markets are massively volatile at the moment and one has to pick one’s spots to get engaged in and then be flexible enough to also reduce risk and lock in gains on moves such as this.

When else will you get 3%-4% moves every day? The answer is very rarely.

At market extremes people tend to get very caught up of what could happen. Just a few weeks ago everybody was rising price targets everywhere and people were screaming buy buy buy. Now we see people getting ever more bearish and calling for ever lower price targets. Stop. It’s pointless making grandiose predictions right now and get caught up in them. Yes, anything can happen, and I also remain very much open to a structural bear case, having made it repeatedly on the way up and calling out the risks.

We are engaged in a massive battle for control here between central banks, the structural problems in the global economy and now a crisis that has popped on the scene out of the blue.

Markets may appear to be in panic mode right now, but that doesn’t mean we need to be. Rather our job is exactly the opposite. To keep calm and not lose sight of the bigger picture, and most importantly: Not lose sight of the technicals as they help guide us through this mess.

*  *  *

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Tyler Durden

Thu, 03/05/2020 – 13:15

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/38sefF9 Tyler Durden

Cali Governor Bars ‘Grand Princess’ Cruise Ship From Docking As Passengers Show Virus Symptoms

Cali Governor Bars ‘Grand Princess’ Cruise Ship From Docking As Passengers Show Virus Symptoms

As we noted earlier, Cali Gov. Gavin Newsom has ordered the ‘Grand Princess’ cruise ship to remain offshore until all its passengers can be tested for the virus. We were one of the first media organizations to link the death of a 71-year-old man in California to the investigation into a previous voyage of the cruise ship and its connection to one of the patients.

Now, Fox 2 KTVU is reporting that several passengers aboard the ship are displaying flu-like symptoms.

In fact, two women have posted a YouTube video from their cabin, saying they are experiencing typical cold symptoms, but that they do not have a fever. They said in the video that they were tested for the virus, but told they didn’t have it.

In other news, Hawaii has become the fourth state to declare a state of emergency over the virus, even though no cases have been confirmed in Hawaii yet, despite several scares. But Hawaii Gov. David Ige said the declaration would allow the state to better prepare.

Regarding the latest case confirmed in California, that of an LAX airport screener, officials reportedly can’t tell if he contracted the virus at work, or “in the community” – which is extremely discouraging, if you ask us.

Cali has reported 53 cases so far.

The Grand Princess currently has 2,500 passengers. The number of crew is unclear.

In a statement, Princess Cruises said there are no confirmed cases and that only 100 individuals have been “identified for testing.”

“There are fewer than 100 guests and crew identified for testing, including all in-transit guests… those guests and crew who have experienced influenza-like illness symptoms on this voyage, and guests currently under care for respiratory illness,” the statement said.

So Newsom is going to let thousands de-board after testing a smattering of 100 people out of more than 3,000. Sounds like a great ‘containment’ plan.

We’re also starting to wonder how Carnival Cruise, which owns Princess cruises, is going to deal with this latest crisis?


Tyler Durden

Thu, 03/05/2020 – 13:01

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2uVXPqK Tyler Durden

Elizabeth Warren Drops Out. Her Failed Campaign Is a Reminder That Even Democratic Voters Don’t Want a Woke Policy Wonk in the White House.

Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D–Mass.) announced today that is dropping out of the presidential race. Warren ran on a platform of arch-technocratic progressivism coupled with identity politics, and her steady release of proposals drove much of the race’s policy discussion. 

But after briefly rising to the top of the polls last fall, Warren’s campaign fell into a steady decline; she failed to expand her appeal beyond a core group of highly educated upper-middle-class voters. If elected, Warren promised to be a president who had mastered both the minutiae of governance and the social habits and language of the liberal elite. Her failure is a reminder that even Democratic voters don’t want a woke policy wonk in the White House. 

On the campaign trail, Warren called for trillions of dollars in new government spending on education and climate change, massive regulatory interventions into the structure and operations of large technology companies, criminal penalties for spreading voting disinformation online, and a radical revamp of corporate governance.

Although she distinguished herself from the explicit socialism of Sen. Bernie Sanders (I–Vt.), her closest rival, by insisting that she was a capitalist “to her bones,” Warren never really demonstrated much fondness for markets. More often than not, she appeared to view them as an inherently corrupt system that required aggressive management from an enlightened expert class. Warren was a capitalist who hated capitalism. 

No policy represented this worldview more than her wealth tax, a two-percent tax on households worth above $50 million, with an additional surcharge of 3 percent (later raised to 6 percent) on households worth more than $1 billion. Warren advertised the proposal as a fair, straightforward way to raise approximately $2.75 trillion tax revenue to pay for her education plans. All she wanted, she said, was for the very wealthy to pay a simple two-cent tax.  

But behind the scenes, the tax was hardly simple: It would require the government to accurately value unique assets, an inherently complex task that would require a giant new tax collection infrastructure. The revenue estimates drew intense criticism from economists across the ideological spectrum, including former Obama administration adviser Lawrence Summers, who argued that it would not raise nearly as much money as Warren expected, leading to shortfalls and deficits. Other analysts warned that, over time, the bulk of the tax burden would fall on workers in the form of lost jobs and wages. And Warren’s supporters made little effort to hide the idea that the tax was primarily punitive, designed as much to degrade fortunes as to raise revenue. 

It was health care, however, that sent Warren’s campaign into its eventual death spiral. After endorsing Sanders’ Medicare for All plan, a government-run system that would eliminate virtually all private insurance in four years, Warren was repeatedly pressed on the question of how to pay for the more than $30 trillion in estimated new government spending the idea would require. 

Initially, Warren hedged in ways that made it obvious she was avoiding the question and had merely hoped to bandwagon with Sanders, peeling off some of his voters without taking full ownership of the issue herself. 

Eventually, she released a plan that was simultaneously convoluted to the point of being unworkable and bad on the merits. After significant criticism, Warren released a second plan that called for implementing Medicare for All, a difficult political task in the most promising of circumstances, several years into her presidency. It was a tacit admission that she wouldn’t pursue single-payer health care at all. 

Warren’s have-it-both-ways approach had become a trap. Voters who didn’t want Medicare for All believed she was for it; voters who did believed she wasn’t genuinely invested in the issue. In a race that often revolved around health care policy, Warren had put herself in a no-win position. 

As her polling dipped, Warren ended up in a separate fight with Sanders over a years-old conversation in which Warren claimed that Sanders said a woman couldn’t win the presidency. Sanders denied ever having said such a thing, and in a debate-stage conversation, Warren accused Sanders of having called her a liar. The squabble appeared to backfire on Warren. As Reason‘s Matt Welch wrote, “By leaking a private conversation with Sanders in a not-particularly-convincing attempt to make him look possibly sexist, Warren’s campaign is engaging in the same kind of bad-faith word-policing that so many voters find off-putting.” 

By the time voting started, Warren had slipped noticeably in the polls. She finished third in Iowa, fourth in New Hampshire and Nevada, and fifth in South Carolina. On Super Tuesday, Warren not only failed to win a single state; she finished behind both Sanders and former Vice President Joe Biden in her home state of Massachusetts. 

Warren won a high-profile dual endorsement from The New York Times, along with Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D–Mass.). But the Times endorsement was itself representative of the problems that plagued her campaign. Her strongest appeal was to the sort of people who write for The New York Timeshighly educated, left-leaning, career-driven meritocrats who place a high-value on technocratic mastery. But even the Times editorial board couldn’t bring itself to exclusively endorse her. The dual endorsement seemed to suggest that she was a fine candidate—but not obviously the best one. 

Warren’s weak performance made clear that her theory of the race was flawed: Both her strategy (to peel off persuadable Sanders voters while maintaining a nominal appeal to moderates) and her tactics (selective leaks against Sanders, Medicare for All two-stepping) weren’t working. It’s probably no surprise that voters concluded they didn’t want Warren, the plan-for-everything candidate, when her actual campaign didn’t go according to plan.

from Latest – Reason.com https://ift.tt/39vUzkY
via IFTTT

Elizabeth Warren Drops Out. Her Failed Campaign Is a Reminder That Even Democratic Voters Don’t Want a Woke Policy Wonk in the White House.

Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D–Mass.) announced today that is dropping out of the presidential race. Warren ran on a platform of arch-technocratic progressivism coupled with identity politics, and her steady release of proposals drove much of the race’s policy discussion. 

But after briefly rising to the top of the polls last fall, Warren’s campaign fell into a steady decline; she failed to expand her appeal beyond a core group of highly educated upper-middle-class voters. If elected, Warren promised to be a president who had mastered both the minutiae of governance and the social habits and language of the liberal elite. Her failure is a reminder that even Democratic voters don’t want a woke policy wonk in the White House. 

On the campaign trail, Warren called for trillions of dollars in new government spending on education and climate change, massive regulatory interventions into the structure and operations of large technology companies, criminal penalties for spreading voting disinformation online, and a radical revamp of corporate governance.

Although she distinguished herself from the explicit socialism of Sen. Bernie Sanders (I–Vt.), her closest rival, by insisting that she was a capitalist “to her bones,” Warren never really demonstrated much fondness for markets. More often than not, she appeared to view them as an inherently corrupt system that required aggressive management from an enlightened expert class. Warren was a capitalist who hated capitalism. 

No policy represented this worldview more than her wealth tax, a two-percent tax on households worth above $50 million, with an additional surcharge of 3 percent (later raised to 6 percent) on households worth more than $1 billion. Warren advertised the proposal as a fair, straightforward way to raise approximately $2.75 trillion tax revenue to pay for her education plans. All she wanted, she said, was for the very wealthy to pay a simple two-cent tax.  

But behind the scenes, the tax was hardly simple: It would require the government to accurately value unique assets, an inherently complex task that would require a giant new tax collection infrastructure. The revenue estimates drew intense criticism from economists across the ideological spectrum, including former Obama administration adviser Lawrence Summers, who argued that it would not raise nearly as much money as Warren expected, leading to shortfalls and deficits. Other analysts warned that, over time, the bulk of the tax burden would fall on workers in the form of lost jobs and wages. And Warren’s supporters made little effort to hide the idea that the tax was primarily punitive, designed as much to degrade fortunes as to raise revenue. 

It was health care, however, that sent Warren’s campaign into its eventual death spiral. After endorsing Sanders’ Medicare for All plan, a government-run system that would eliminate virtually all private insurance in four years, Warren was repeatedly pressed on the question of how to pay for the more than $30 trillion in estimated new government spending the idea would require. 

Initially, Warren hedged in ways that made it obvious she was avoiding the question and had merely hoped to bandwagon with Sanders, peeling off some of his voters without taking full ownership of the issue herself. 

Eventually, she released a plan that was simultaneously convoluted to the point of being unworkable and bad on the merits. After significant criticism, Warren released a second plan that called for implementing Medicare for All, a difficult political task in the most promising of circumstances, several years into her presidency. It was a tacit admission that she wouldn’t pursue single-payer health care at all. 

Warren’s have-it-both-ways approach had become a trap. Voters who didn’t want Medicare for All believed she was for it; voters who did believed she wasn’t genuinely invested in the issue. In a race that often revolved around health care policy, Warren had put herself in a no-win position. 

As her polling dipped, Warren ended up in a separate fight with Sanders over a years-old conversation in which Warren claimed that Sanders said a woman couldn’t win the presidency. Sanders denied ever having said such a thing, and in a debate-stage conversation, Warren accused Sanders of having called her a liar. The squabble appeared to backfire on Warren. As Reason‘s Matt Welch wrote, “By leaking a private conversation with Sanders in a not-particularly-convincing attempt to make him look possibly sexist, Warren’s campaign is engaging in the same kind of bad-faith word-policing that so many voters find off-putting.” 

By the time voting started, Warren had slipped noticeably in the polls. She finished third in Iowa, fourth in New Hampshire and Nevada, and fifth in South Carolina. On Super Tuesday, Warren not only failed to win a single state; she finished behind both Sanders and former Vice President Joe Biden in her home state of Massachusetts. 

Warren won a high-profile dual endorsement from The New York Times, along with Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D–Mass.). But the Times endorsement was itself representative of the problems that plagued her campaign. Her strongest appeal was to the sort of people who write for The New York Timeshighly educated, left-leaning, career-driven meritocrats who place a high-value on technocratic mastery. But even the Times editorial board couldn’t bring itself to exclusively endorse her. The dual endorsement seemed to suggest that she was a fine candidate—but not obviously the best one. 

Warren’s weak performance made clear that her theory of the race was flawed: Both her strategy (to peel off persuadable Sanders voters while maintaining a nominal appeal to moderates) and her tactics (selective leaks against Sanders, Medicare for All two-stepping) weren’t working. It’s probably no surprise that voters concluded they didn’t want Warren, the plan-for-everything candidate, when her actual campaign didn’t go according to plan.

from Latest – Reason.com https://ift.tt/39vUzkY
via IFTTT