Bitcoin Bounce Builds Since Bakkt Unveils ‘Physical’ Crypto Futures

After dropping back below $10,000 on Friday, Bitcoin has surged over $1,000 (breaking out this morning) following news that the Bakkt exchange will be offering ‘physically-settled’ Bitcoin futures (as opposed to the cash-settled contracts that are currently traded).

In a blog post last Friday, Bakkt revealed the details of its bitcoin futures and warehousing plan.

One year ago, we announced our ambitious vision to bring institutional infrastructure to digital assets with an end-to-end regulated marketplace. That vision will be realized on September 23 when Bakkt launches custody and physically-delivered daily and monthly bitcoin futures contracts in partnership with ICE Futures U.S. and ICE Clear US.

Our contracts have already received the green light from the CFTC through the self-certification process and user acceptance testing has begun. Withapproval by the New York State Department of Financial Services to create Bakkt Trust Company, a qualified custodian, the Bakkt Warehouse will custody bitcoin for physically delivered futures. This offers customers unprecedented regulatory clarity and security alongside a regulated, globally accessible exchange in a market underserved by institutional-grade infrastructure.

Put simply, as CoinDesk’s Omkar Godbale notes, BTC futures trading on Bakkt will not rely upon unregulated spot markets for settlement prices and the party will receive delivery of bitcoins from the Bakkt Digital Asset Warehouse at the end of the contract period.

Many observers, including cryptocurrency analyst and trader Scott Melker, are of the opinion that Bakkt’s physically-delivered futures product will open the floodgates for the institutional money and is a long-term bullish development for bitcoin.

Physically delivered futures require the actual purchase of bitcoins, which, according to Melker is a “huge” development. Also, there is general consensus that the price discovery in new physical delivery markets will contribute to building confidence in BTC prices.

Bitcoin breaking back out of its range…

Source: Bloomberg

Additionally, as CoinTelegraph notes, crypto markets are reacting to news cryptocurrency exchange Binance was planning to release its own version of Facebook’s Libra digital currency, in what is also a direct response to China’s central bank.

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Activists Try To Stop Redevelopment of ‘Historic’ Business Over Owners’ Objections. Again.

NIMBYs are suing to stop the redevelopment of a historic business over the objections of the business’s owners. Again.

In July, the AIDS Healthcare Foundation (AHF) sued Los Angeles over its approval of a plan to redevelop Amoeba Music’s Hollywood location into a 26-story, 200-unit apartment building.

Since the record store chain opened its Hollywood location in 2001, the store has become famous for its distinctive neon signs and murals and for hosting famous musicians like Paul McCartney. These features, the AHF argues, make the Amoeba Music building a significant historic resource that the city cannot lawfully allow to be demolished without further environmental study.

Amoeba Music’s owners feel differently. The lawsuit, they say, is actively harming their ability to keep their record store alive.

“Using Amoeba without our consent in their battle against development is more likely to permanently close our doors than anything else we have faced to date,” Amoeba co-owner Jim Henderson told the Los Angeles Times.

Amoeba sold its Hollywood building four years ago for $34 million and has since been looking for another, more affordable storefront.

The lawsuit, Henderson tells the Times, is turning off potential landlords who fear they too could run into legal trouble if they rent to Amoeba and later choose to redevelop their property. Henderson also said that declaring the current building a historic landmark could prevent Amoeba from moving its distinctive neon signs to a new location.

The lawsuit, which AHF filed in conjunction with the Coalition to Preserve L.A., has also argued that the city did not do enough to study the impact of a 26-story tower on nearby utilities and that the city did not require the developer to include rent-restricted affordable units that would be rented out at below-market rates.

AHF and its various advocacy arms have gotten deeply enmeshed in housing politics both in Los Angeles and at the state level.

The non-profit was the primary funder of 2018’s failed Proposition 10, a ballot measure that would have repealed state-level restrictions on local governments’ ability to impose rent control policies. AHF and its allies are currently gathering signatures to place a second rent control initiative on the 2020 ballot.

In Los Angeles, AHF has sued the Los Angeles city government multiple times over its approval of Hollywood-area developments, arguing that these approvals violated federal and state housing laws and that the new developments themselves will lead to gentrification and displacement.

Its attempt to preserve the current Amoeba Music building over the objections of its owners is reminiscent of other historic landmarking battles.

In Seattle, a coalition of preservationists, musicians, and most of the Seattle City Council is trying to prevent the redevelopment of the Showbox music venue into apartments over the objections of Showbox’s current owner.

New York City landmarked the Strand bookstore, despite pleading from the store’s owner that such landmarking would be detrimental to her business.

Similarly, in Denver, activists tried to landmark the popular downtown restaurant Tom’s Diner to prevent its owner from selling it to a developer. The preservationists eventually dropped their landmarking attempt last week after a fierce public backlash.

The desire to preserve old buildings is an understandable one. However, that desire is also often in tension with demands for new housing and commercial space. Ideally, markets would relieve this tension by letting preservationists and developers offer competing bids for urban properties.

But by allowing activists to landmark buildings without having to actually buy a property, and oftentimes over an owner’s objections, cities have heavily tilted the scales toward too much preservation and not enough development.

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NYPD Officer Daniel Pantaleo is Fired 5 Years After Placing Eric Garner in a Chokehold

Five years after Officer Daniel Pantaleo killed Eric Garner, the New York Police Department (NYPD) has fired him.

In 2014, Pantaleo was part of a group that attempted to arrest Garner, who they suspected of selling individual untaxed cigarettes. In the ensuing confrontation, which was captured on video, Pantaleo put Garner in a chokehold. Garner told the officers repeatedly that he was unable to breathe. They ignored his pleas, and he died. Garner has since become a symbol of the movement against police brutality.

An internal disciplinary hearing followed, and The New York Times obtained and released its results yesterday. In the report, Deputy Commissioner of Trials Rosemarie Maldonado writes that while she does not believe that Pantaleo intended to choke Garner, the autopsy results, the video, and Pantaleo’s own interviews led her to conclude that he used the prohibited move. Maldonado also called Pantaleo “untruthful” about his behavior. “I found [Pantaleo] to be disingenuous when he viewed the video and denied using a chokehold,” she wrote.

Maldonado found Pantaleo guilty of recklessly causing physical injury and not guilty of strangulation with intent to impede breathing. She recommended Pantaleo’s dismissal, and NYPD Commissioner James P. O’Neill announced today that Pantaleo is being fired.

“While this is some measure of long-overdue relief, we have a long way to go to achieve true police accountability,” Donna Lieberman, executive director of the American Civil Liberties Union of New York, said in a statement. “The NYPD must take further steps to rebuild trust between officers and the communities they serve, put an end to police brutality against communities of color, and ensure what happened to Eric Garner will never happen again.”

Patrick J. Lynch, president of the Police Benevolent Association of the City of New York, responded to the decision by accusing O’Neill of choosing “politics and his own self-interest” over the interests of NYPD officers. He continued: “Now it is time for every police officer in this city to make their own choice. We are urging all New York City police officers to proceed with the utmost caution in this new reality, in which they may be deemed ‘reckless’ just for doing their job.”

Garner’s daughter, Emerald Garner, thanked O’Neill for “doing the right thing”:

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Activists Try To Stop Redevelopment of ‘Historic’ Business Over Owners’ Objections. Again.

NIMBYs are suing to stop the redevelopment of a historic business over the objections of the business’s owners. Again.

In July, the AIDS Healthcare Foundation (AHF) sued Los Angeles over its approval of a plan to redevelop Amoeba Music’s Hollywood location into a 26-story, 200-unit apartment building.

Since the record store chain opened its Hollywood location in 2001, the store has become famous for its distinctive neon signs and murals and for hosting famous musicians like Paul McCartney. These features, the AHF argues, make the Amoeba Music building a significant historic resource that the city cannot lawfully allow to be demolished without further environmental study.

Amoeba Music’s owners feel differently. The lawsuit, they say, is actively harming their ability to keep their record store alive.

“Using Amoeba without our consent in their battle against development is more likely to permanently close our doors than anything else we have faced to date,” Amoeba co-owner Jim Henderson told the Los Angeles Times.

Amoeba sold its Hollywood building four years ago for $34 million and has since been looking for another, more affordable storefront.

The lawsuit, Henderson tells the Times, is turning off potential landlords who fear they too could run into legal trouble if they rent to Amoeba and later choose to redevelop their property. Henderson also said that declaring the current building a historic landmark could prevent Amoeba from moving its distinctive neon signs to a new location.

The lawsuit, which AHF filed in conjunction with the Coalition to Preserve L.A., has also argued that the city did not do enough to study the impact of a 26-story tower on nearby utilities and that the city did not require the developer to include rent-restricted affordable units that would be rented out at below-market rates.

AHF and its various advocacy arms have gotten deeply enmeshed in housing politics both in Los Angeles and at the state level.

The non-profit was the primary funder of 2018’s failed Proposition 10, a ballot measure that would have repealed state-level restrictions on local governments’ ability to impose rent control policies. AHF and its allies are currently gathering signatures to place a second rent control initiative on the 2020 ballot.

In Los Angeles, AHF has sued the Los Angeles city government multiple times over its approval of Hollywood-area developments, arguing that these approvals violated federal and state housing laws and that the new developments themselves will lead to gentrification and displacement.

Its attempt to preserve the current Amoeba Music building over the objections of its owners is reminiscent of other historic landmarking battles.

In Seattle, a coalition of preservationists, musicians, and most of the Seattle City Council is trying to prevent the redevelopment of the Showbox music venue into apartments over the objections of Showbox’s current owner.

New York City landmarked the Strand bookstore, despite pleading from the store’s owner that such landmarking would be detrimental to her business.

Similarly, in Denver, activists tried to landmark the popular downtown restaurant Tom’s Diner to prevent its owner from selling it to a developer. The preservationists eventually dropped their landmarking attempt last week after a fierce public backlash.

The desire to preserve old buildings is an understandable one. However, that desire is also often in tension with demands for new housing and commercial space. Ideally, markets would relieve this tension by letting preservationists and developers offer competing bids for urban properties.

But by allowing activists to landmark buildings without having to actually buy a property, and oftentimes over an owner’s objections, cities have heavily tilted the scales toward too much preservation and not enough development.

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Dems Forced To Apologize After Mock Assassination Of Trump Enacted At Fundraiser

Authored by Steven Watson via Summit News,

Pictures show ‘assault weapon’ being pointed at likeness of the president

Democrats in Illinois have been forced to apologize after photos emerged of attendees at a fundraiser carrying out a mock simulation of assassinating President Trump.

The scene was photographed at a fundraiser for Democratic Illinois State Sen. Martin Sandoval.

Sen. Sandoval had to take to Twitter and apologize, noting that he doesn’t “condone violence toward the President or anyone else”:

The Democratic party of Illinois followed suit, albeit with an embedded dig at the President, insinuating that he is guilty of inciting mass shootings:

The state’s Democratic governor was also forced to apologize.

Democrats everywhere are now being forced to either apologize for the bizarre actions of their own supporters, and even party members, or more insanely, to embrace them.

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2KG9K0U Tyler Durden

Nomura: Global Equity Sentiment “Has Managed To Avoid ‘The Panic Zone'”… For Now

US equity markets are excitedly recovering last week’s losses as hope once again washes across global markets that lower rates, fiscal recklessness will save the world. The explicit driver of the bounce is yet another short-squeeze – the second biggest since the start of 2019.

Source: Bloomberg

The last time we saw a bounce like this was the first days of June, when – again – a heavy oversold reading going into a barrage of Fed speakers prompted more panic-buying…

Source: Bloomberg

However, Nomura’s Global Markets Research group note that while US/global equities rebounded at the end of last week, global stock market sentiment still remains negative.

While US and global equities rebounded at the end of last week, its gauge to capture the global stock market sentiment remains in negative (risk-averse) territory, but has improved slightly, contracting slightly from -7.5 on 15th August to -5.5 on 16th August.

“Sentiment has managed to avoid the ‘panic zone’ of two standard deviations below the mean, but there is no clear recovery in investor sentiment, with sentiment continuing to bounce back and forth in a range of one to two standard deviations below the mean.”

By region, Nomura notes the improvement in US and China equity market sentiment, but euro area equity market sentiment has deteriorated, and the fragility of equity supply demand conditions in this area is particularly noteworthy.

Nomura says macro funds US equity dip-buying.

“We believe that an end to the global economic recession trades currently brewing in the market will require trading on positive surprises, namely on expectations for (1) the withdrawal of the fourth round of tariffs on Chinese goods or the US and China concluding a trade agreement, (2) an emergency rate cut by the Fed of the order of 50-100bp (or an implicit promise to make such a cut in September), or (3) a coordinated fiscal response. The stock market rallies at the end of last week look to have been somewhat motivated by factors (2) and (3) and look to have been macro-driven.”

Nomura says that it is worth noting that global equity markets are in a bit of a nervous phase in which rises and declines can be quite conspicuous, with a seasonal decline in liquidity also coming into the equation.

“However, the over-arching situation is that the market jitters resulting from a negative spread between 2-year and 10-year US Treasury yields and signs of economic slowdown in major areas outside of the US are yet to be resolved, and evidence of such can be seen in a slight shift in preference from cyclicals to defensives by long-short funds, and larger short positions in Nikkei 225 futures, Hong Kong Hang Seng futures, and German DAX futures at trend-following CTAs.”

Even assuming that CTAs are swayed to some degree by daily market fluctuations, Nomura believes they have been continuing their net selling of equity futures in major regions.

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Ever Fewer Wealthy, Ever More Poor, Projected To Equal Ever More Demand?!?

Authored by Chris Hamilton via Econimica blog,

  • Wealthier half of the world population (with incomes of $4k+) consumes 90% of total energy and oil.

  • The under 65yr/old population of the wealthier nations begins declining (depopulating) in 2023, declining in excess of 10 million annually by 2035.

  • Despite the imminent decline in working age / consumer age populations of wealthier nations, total global energy and oil consumption are projected to continue rising on growth among the poor.

First chart is the 0 to 65 year old population of the worlds nations that have in excess of $4,000 annual gross national income per capita or average of $16k per capita (solid blue line) and their total energy consumption (dashed blue line).  This is versus the worlds nations with annual gross national income per capita below $4,000 or average of $1.6k per capita (solid red line) and their total energy consumption (dashed red line). 

Same variables as above but showing the annual change in the nations with $4k+ and annual change in population under $4k…again versus their total energy consumptions.  Population data includes anticipated ongoing immigration to the wealthier nations away from poorer nations at present rates…absent this, the wealthy nation depopulation begins sooner and is even more significant.

Global oil consumption with EIA projection through 2040 (black line), annual wealthier under 65 year old population growth (blue columns), annual poorer under 65 year old population growth (red columns), plus Federal Reserve set federal funds rate (yellow line).

Finally, just two variables – the change per five years of the 0 to 65 year old wealthier (blue columns) and poorer (red columns) nations populations versus change per five years of global oil consumption (black line).  As the population of nations that consumes 90% of oil globally begins declining and growth among the poorer nations decelerates, oil consumption is projected to continue increasing?!?

Despite population growth driving up to half of GDP growth and the poorer nations reliant on growth among wealthier nations for their own growth…despite present near zero, zero, and negative interest rates to accommodate massive debt loads…somehow depopulation amidst the heavily indebted nations that consume 90% of global energy (coupled with conservation and innovation) is projected to be offset and outweighed by demand growth among the consumers of 10% of global energy?!?.  Go figure.

Total energy and oil consumption data via EIA International Energy Outlook 2016 and population data via UN World Population Prospects 2019.

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Beware Of The $5 Trillion Corporate Debt Wall Due Through 2024

S&P Global Ratings is now warning about $5.2 trillion in corporate debt coming due through 2024, reported International Financing Review (IFR).

The $5.2 trillion includes bonds, loans, and revolving credit facilities from financial and non-financial companies in the US. It represents almost half of the global rated debt expected to mature during the period.

S&P said despite market volatility, recent issuance of bonds and loans had been more than enough to meet future maturity demands.

“We expect maturities to be largely manageable,” Sudeep Kesh, head of credit market research at S&P Global Ratings told IFR.

“The recent Fed rate cut, and expectations of another rate cut in September will support a benign financing environment in the near term.”

This comes as J.P.Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI has slipped under 50 for much of the summer, and a growth rate cycle slowdown in the US economy forced investors to invert the 2s10s yield curve last week, increasing fears of a recession in the next 12 to 18 months.

“There is a constant push and pull between central banks lowering rates, and deteriorating economic conditions. We don’t see that going away soon,” said Kesh.

“Spreads are still quite a bit tighter than they were earlier in the year,” he said. “Recent weakness is not that pronounced other than at the very low end of the credit spectrum, which tends to always have some pressure.”

IFR said investors are terrified that corporate leverage is at record highs. Lower rates will allow firms to refinance existing debt and push out near term maturities to kick the can down the road even more.

IFR referenced another recent report from S&P that said median debt-to-Ebitda for Triple B and Double B rated public companies is back at levels not seen since 2006.

Triple B debt remains the most significant imbalance in the corporate debt space, at least 50% (or $4 trillion) of corporate debt falls under the tranche.

The concerns of a downgrade wave of Triple Bs has subsided thanks to the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates last month.

Investment-grade credit default swaps have remained elevated for the last four weeks but trade under June highs.

IFR said insurance companies, who hold a lot of Triple B debt, could be forced to sell the debt into illiquid markets when ratings move from BBB to BB (otherwise known as junk).

“The biggest concern for insurance companies is less a maturity wall and more downgrade risk,” said John Simone, head of insurance solutions group at Voya Investment Management.

“Companies are reacting to that by paying down debt and improving balance sheets. We think the BBB issue is a little over done, but we continue to monitor that.”

Much of the debt has been used for financial engineering schemes, not generally used in expanding the business or increasing cash flow.

“A lot of corporations have issued a lot of debt to buy back stock, instead of investing in new plants and growth, for example,” said Simone.

And it seems the corporate debt bubble might have found a pin last week when Harry Markopolos, the investment manager who exposed Bernie Madoff, said “impending losses will destroy GE’s balance sheet, debt ratios and likely also violate debt covenants. GE’s cash situation is far worse than disclosed in their 2018” annual report to regulators.

Pension funds, money managers, and insurance companies are only allowed to keep investment-grade debt in their portfolios, so when a downgrade wave from investment-grade to junk hits, likely sparked by an economic downturn or the collapse of GE, the corporate debt market could implode. 

As for the $5.2 trillion due through 2024, well, it’s likely that some companies will default and or even fold when the next recession strikes, likely in the next year and year and a half. 

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Proud Boys and Antifa Playact Protest in Portland

At 9 a.m. we drive west over the Morrison Bridge. The bridge that would dump us closest to today’s rally in Portland, Oregon, the Hawthorne Bridge, has been closed by police. We pass 20 more cops, costumed in full riot gear, as we exit onto the other side of the Willamette River.

Downtown, which should be busy on a Saturday morning, is a ghost town. Only one coffee shop is open.

“It’s Portland,” says my friend Ben. “Can’t have a riot without coffee.”

The riot in question, which it’s been announced will start at 10:30 a.m., has been billed for weeks as the next big confrontation between leftists and the alt-right. This showdown is ostensibly in response to a June 29 incident in which journalist Andy Ngo was attacked by alleged members of the radical group antifa. When video of the attack went viral, antifa’s critics saw it as evidence that the movement is violent; antifa’s defenders argued that Ngo, who often writes critically of the group, brought the attack on himself and was profiting from it. Pundit Michelle Malkin started a GoFundMe for Ngo (currently clocking in at $194,000), and former InfoWars reporter Joe Biggs—now affiliated with a right-wing group, the Proud Boys—announced he and his crew would come from Florida to stage an “End Domestic Terrorism” rally in Portland.

In response, Portland Mayor Ted Wheeler pinned to his Twitter feed: “A message to anyone who plans on using Portland on August 18th to commit violence and spread hate: We. Don’t. Want. You. Here.”

They came anyway. Yet by 10 a.m. there are more police than demonstrators along Portland’s waterfront. There are also park rangers in their Mountie-like uniforms (one never sees rangers here), concrete barriers (no one wants another Charlottesville), and a police boat doing a slow trawl on the west side of the Willamette.

There are also a lot of camera-toting news people with not a lot of news to cover, unless you count a lone Proud Boy yelling, “The Portland Police Bureau took my flagpole! The Portland Police Bureau took my flagpole!”

One of the few people watching this is a 20-year-old holding a flag that reads “Come and Take It” below a drawing of a cannon. Christian tells me he’s driven from Dallas, Texas, to be here.

“I have a girlfriend here anyway,” he says. “But I’m not the biggest fan of antifa. I’ve been to a couple of Proud Boys events. I never saw them start anything. I’m here to support them.”

An expanse the length of maybe two football fields is where today’s confrontation is set to be staged. On the south end is a smattering of right-wingers: men in flak jackets carrying American flags plus one guy in a QAnon shirt. On the north end, on what might be called the anti–Proud Boy side are hundreds of people. These include Black Bloc anarchists wearing the equivalent of riot gear: black face masks, black motorcycle or bicycle helmets, black clothes. Some carry black umbrellas, maybe to shield themselves from photos and the press. (Antifa demonstrators don’t like to speak with the media.)

Leavening the mood is a quartet in chef’s toques, carrying signs that read WHITE FLOUR and WIFE POWER. “We’re standing up to white supremacy with a little humor, highlighting the absurdity,” one says before asking if she can “anoint” me with a sprinkling of flour. Kudos to these folks and others who dressed up and brightened the day.

Effie Baum is a spokesperson for Popular Mobilization, or PopMob, which organized today’s event after learning of the Proud Boys’ decision to again descend on Portland.

“We were the ones who also helped with the rally on the 29th,” she says, and that she’s gratified to see about eight times as many people on her “end” of the field than the other.

“Excellent. That’s our entire goal,” she says. “I hope that we outnumber them and that they are not able to get any of the things they’re looking for, which is provocation and any type of altercations and that they aren’t able to make their toxic masculinity riot porn, which allows them to do more recruiting on the internet.”

What might be seen as the opposite of toxic masculinity riot porn is gathered nearby, random grown-ups who identify as left if not as part of any particular group—”keep Portland weird” mainstays dressed as superheroes and mermaids and anarchist clowns and bananas and houseplants and more, including two young men wearing full-body Winnie the Pooh outfits.

“One of them is maybe a fake!” shouts one college-age Pooh boy, before tunelessly strumming a ukulele with an A (for anarchy) sticker.

There is also a middle-aged man in a shirt from the John Brown Gun Club. On July 19, a member of this self-proclaimed “anti-racist, pro-worker” firearms club was killed by police after allegedly throwing incendiary objects at a Tacoma immigration center.

I ask him why he’s here. “We don’t really talk about this,” the man replies, politely. Then: “We are here and stand up for what we believe in. These groups [the Proud Boys] make incursions into Portland every six months. We want to show up for what they are against.”

Which is? “Liberal democracy,” he says. “We want to keep people safe, generally.”

A little before 11, there’s a perceptible shimmy in the air. Police are lining up at the south end of the field, preventing people from crossing the line. Ben, who served six years in Iraq and Afghanistan, points out there are at least four grenade launchers set to shoot tear gas canisters.

“They’re also called ‘bloop guns,’ for the sound they make when they shoot,” he says as the first real altercation of the day begins, an antifa guy getting right in the face of a Proud Boy. There’s a lot of shouting and chest-thumping as at least 100 people press in on them, filming with their phones, everyone yelling, though no one as loudly and as repetitively and as a man shouting, “Hallelujah! Hallelujah! Thank you, Jesus! Thank you, Jesus! No hate! No hate!” He is trying, I realize, to bring down the temperature. An hour later I will see this man again, again putting himself between combatants, his shirt soaked with sweat, his eyes almost spilling tears.

The first confrontation unknots as quickly as it formed, leaving behind a young woman with a shaved head under a camo baseball cap. “I am here to support everyone in the anti-antifa movement,” she says. “What I hope is going to happen is we have a peaceful demonstration. What I think is going to happen is what always happens. Antifa is going to throw a punch and there’s going to be a fight. There always is a fight. Look at June 29. Wait, what’s happening?”

What’s happening is that police are cinching people in, surreptitiously corralling the antifa crowd. Shouts of, “NO MORE NA-ZIS! NO MORE NA-ZIS” start as a news chopper hovers overhead. Whether by design or spontaneously, the crowd of maybe six hundred swarms below the Morrison Bridge. It becomes very loud very fast, shouts and drumbeats banging off the concrete stanchions overhead.

“GO HOME FAS-CISTS! GO HOME FAS-CISTS!” the crowd chants, though the Proud Boys and their supporters are nowhere in view. It later turns out they are still on the other side of the river. Nevertheless, the group under the bridge is pumped, visibly agitated, except for a line of young men in black masks standing very still. They carry canes and those umbrellas and, in one case, a Louisville slugger made of metal. A young man whom, maybe because I look so threatening with my notepad, flashes his black brass knuckles at me.

The crowd continues to chant as a tape blaring from a nearby police car warns on repeat, “NO MARCHING IN THE STREET—IF YOU ARE IN THE STREETS YOU WILL BE SUBJECT TO ARREST.” I ask Gregory McKelvey, who is handing out stickers that read “SARAH for Portland Mayor—#OurPortland,” what he’s doing here today, besides managing Sarah Iannarone’s 2020 campaign.

“I’m here because I think it’s important for the city of Portland to show that anti-fascism doesn’t necessarily look like black-clad protestors,” he shouts above the racket. “That anti-fascism looks like fathers like me, nurses, teachers and really all of the Portland community.”

Including, evidently, a man standing nearby dressed as Obi-Wan Kenobi.

“I think it’s important for everyday anti-fascists to come out and show that this city opposes the bigots that oftentimes infiltrate our city,” McKelvey continues. “I think it’s important that we show up and outnumber these out-of-town, out-of-state bigots.”

How does he think Ted Wheeler’s handled the situation?

“I think that the mayor has promoted a lot of rhetoric that both sides contribute to this violence,” he says. “I think having police in riot gear contributes to a militarized and violent presence here and I think there’s been a lack of guidance and leadership at the top levels that’s led to the situation we’re in.”

Portland Police further kettle the pack, keeping them on this end of the field, keeping them under the bridge. This just as the Proud Boys have marched over a bridge and reached the south end of the park. Portland Police have gotten grief from many quarters in the run-up to the rally, but they do appear to know where the today’s groups are going to amass and how to keep them away from each other. This may well be the result of cooperation from an unlikely quarter: According to Proud Boys chairman Enrique Tarrio, who flew in from Florida for the rally, “As soon as we landed, we spoke with Portland [Police Department]. I was telling them, look, you guys tell me what the best marching route is.”

As for their intent today, Tarrio told his crew the night before the rally that there was to be “no fighting whatsoever….We go in together, and we leave together….We’re going to have a badass time in the park, while [antifa] go and burn down the city.”

The Proud Boys and their supporters spend less than an hour in the park before starting a walk back over the river, this time on the Hawthorne Bridge, which has been reopened for them for this purpose. Entering the bridge’s roadway, the roughly 200 Proud Boys and supporters shout, “USA! USA! USA!” to several construction workers on a scaffold. The workers seem a little bewildered. The group shouts, “Thank you for your service!” to police officers, who say nothing in return.

The march back is subdued, the tenor and energy completely different than being on the ground on the other side. A few people start singing, “Na-na-na-na, hey hey hey, good-bye.” It doesn’t catch on and they continue over the bridge in relative quiet.

“I knew it was going to be calm, but I didn’t know it would be this calm,” says guerrilla street artist and Proud Boy member Sabo, who came up from Los Angeles to march.

Once on the other side, the Proud Boy leadership poses for a group photo. Everyone is smiling and seems relaxed, maybe relieved. Asked if he thinks the day was a success, a Seattle Proud Boy says about his own people, “Absolutely. Not a single person injured, no one arrested.”

“It was healthy discourse in a controlled environment,” says a young man wearing the Proud Boy “uniform” of black Fred Perry polo shirt. “That’s all we can ask.”

“Let’s go fucking barbecue!” someone shouts.

One wonders: What has been accomplished? To what discourse does the young man refer? Antifa was angry that the Proud Boys would show up in “their” city—that they would dare to come here. The Proud Boys countered: You can’t stop us. (Before the day is over, Joe Biggs announces they’ll be back again next month.) Both groups insist it’s the other side making trouble, the other side that’s violent. Each side is reactionary, fed on hatred and on our willingness to keep tuning in for the next episode.

Which, for today, is essentially over by early afternoon. There are a dozen arrests, but very little stemming from confrontation between the groups, more stragglers siphoning off last bits of rage.

Looking like one big fizzle, incidents will be amped and misreported before the sun is down. A video of a man dressed as some sort of gladiator being attacked by a mob while trying to protect his “12-year-old daughter” will be streamed and tweeted, including by Andy Ngo and picked up by Michelle Malkin. It will take me 35 seconds online to learn the gladiator is a serial provocateur and if the person he’s shown with is his daughter, she’s 24. That they appear to have dressed her so she looks like a child strikes me as particularly reprehensible.

“It’s all show business,” says Ben as we walk back over a bridge. Several guys in MAGA caps are yelling “USA!” at a few anarchists; a young man in a black body suit is doing some sort of wiggle dance. “If it were real, there would be bodies stacked.”

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Proud Boys and Antifa Playact Protest in Portland

At 9 a.m. we drive west over the Morrison Bridge. The bridge that would dump us closest to today’s rally in Portland, Oregon, the Hawthorne Bridge, has been closed by police. We pass 20 more cops, costumed in full riot gear, as we exit onto the other side of the Willamette River.

Downtown, which should be busy on a Saturday morning, is a ghost town. Only one coffee shop is open.

“It’s Portland,” says my friend Ben. “Can’t have a riot without coffee.”

The riot in question, which it’s been announced will start at 10:30 a.m., has been billed for weeks as the next big confrontation between leftists and the alt-right. This showdown is ostensibly in response to a June 29 incident in which journalist Andy Ngo was attacked by alleged members of the radical group antifa. When video of the attack went viral, antifa’s critics saw it as evidence that the movement is violent; antifa’s defenders argued that Ngo, who often writes critically of the group, brought the attack on himself and was profiting from it. Pundit Michelle Malkin started a GoFundMe for Ngo (currently clocking in at $194,000), and former InfoWars reporter Joe Biggs—now affiliated with a right-wing group, the Proud Boys—announced he and his crew would come from Florida to stage an “End Domestic Terrorism” rally in Portland.

In response, Portland Mayor Ted Wheeler pinned to his Twitter feed: “A message to anyone who plans on using Portland on August 18th to commit violence and spread hate: We. Don’t. Want. You. Here.”

They came anyway. Yet by 10 a.m. there are more police than demonstrators along Portland’s waterfront. There are also park rangers in their Mountie-like uniforms (one never sees rangers here), concrete barriers (no one wants another Charlottesville), and a police boat doing a slow trawl on the west side of the Willamette.

There are also a lot of camera-toting news people with not a lot of news to cover, unless you count a lone Proud Boy yelling, “The Portland Police Bureau took my flagpole! The Portland Police Bureau took my flagpole!”

One of the few people watching this is a 20-year-old holding a flag that reads “Come and Take It” below a drawing of a cannon. Christian tells me he’s driven from Dallas, Texas, to be here.

“I have a girlfriend here anyway,” he says. “But I’m not the biggest fan of antifa. I’ve been to a couple of Proud Boys events. I never saw them start anything. I’m here to support them.”

An expanse the length of maybe two football fields is where today’s confrontation is set to be staged. On the south end is a smattering of right-wingers: men in flak jackets carrying American flags plus one guy in a QAnon shirt. On the north end, on what might be called the anti–Proud Boy side are hundreds of people. These include Black Bloc anarchists wearing the equivalent of riot gear: black face masks, black motorcycle or bicycle helmets, black clothes. Some carry black umbrellas, maybe to shield themselves from photos and the press. (Antifa demonstrators don’t like to speak with the media.)

Leavening the mood is a quartet in chef’s toques, carrying signs that read WHITE FLOUR and WIFE POWER. “We’re standing up to white supremacy with a little humor, highlighting the absurdity,” one says before asking if she can “anoint” me with a sprinkling of flour. Kudos to these folks and others who dressed up and brightened the day.

Effie Baum is a spokesperson for Popular Mobilization, or PopMob, which organized today’s event after learning of the Proud Boys’ decision to again descend on Portland.

“We were the ones who also helped with the rally on the 29th,” she says, and that she’s gratified to see about eight times as many people on her “end” of the field than the other.

“Excellent. That’s our entire goal,” she says. “I hope that we outnumber them and that they are not able to get any of the things they’re looking for, which is provocation and any type of altercations and that they aren’t able to make their toxic masculinity riot porn, which allows them to do more recruiting on the internet.”

What might be seen as the opposite of toxic masculinity riot porn is gathered nearby, random grown-ups who identify as left if not as part of any particular group—”keep Portland weird” mainstays dressed as superheroes and mermaids and anarchist clowns and bananas and houseplants and more, including two young men wearing full-body Winnie the Pooh outfits.

“One of them is maybe a fake!” shouts one college-age Pooh boy, before tunelessly strumming a ukulele with an A (for anarchy) sticker.

There is also a middle-aged man in a shirt from the John Brown Gun Club. On July 19, a member of this self-proclaimed “anti-racist, pro-worker” firearms club was killed by police after allegedly throwing incendiary objects at a Tacoma immigration center.

I ask him why he’s here. “We don’t really talk about this,” the man replies, politely. Then: “We are here and stand up for what we believe in. These groups [the Proud Boys] make incursions into Portland every six months. We want to show up for what they are against.”

Which is? “Liberal democracy,” he says. “We want to keep people safe, generally.”

A little before 11, there’s a perceptible shimmy in the air. Police are lining up at the south end of the field, preventing people from crossing the line. Ben, who served six years in Iraq and Afghanistan, points out there are at least four grenade launchers set to shoot tear gas canisters.

“They’re also called ‘bloop guns,’ for the sound they make when they shoot,” he says as the first real altercation of the day begins, an antifa guy getting right in the face of a Proud Boy. There’s a lot of shouting and chest-thumping as at least 100 people press in on them, filming with their phones, everyone yelling, though no one as loudly and as repetitively and as a man shouting, “Hallelujah! Hallelujah! Thank you, Jesus! Thank you, Jesus! No hate! No hate!” He is trying, I realize, to bring down the temperature. An hour later I will see this man again, again putting himself between combatants, his shirt soaked with sweat, his eyes almost spilling tears.

The first confrontation unknots as quickly as it formed, leaving behind a young woman with a shaved head under a camo baseball cap. “I am here to support everyone in the anti-antifa movement,” she says. “What I hope is going to happen is we have a peaceful demonstration. What I think is going to happen is what always happens. Antifa is going to throw a punch and there’s going to be a fight. There always is a fight. Look at June 29. Wait, what’s happening?”

What’s happening is that police are cinching people in, surreptitiously corralling the antifa crowd. Shouts of, “NO MORE NA-ZIS! NO MORE NA-ZIS” start as a news chopper hovers overhead. Whether by design or spontaneously, the crowd of maybe six hundred swarms below the Morrison Bridge. It becomes very loud very fast, shouts and drumbeats banging off the concrete stanchions overhead.

“GO HOME FAS-CISTS! GO HOME FAS-CISTS!” the crowd chants, though the Proud Boys and their supporters are nowhere in view. It later turns out they are still on the other side of the river. Nevertheless, the group under the bridge is pumped, visibly agitated, except for a line of young men in black masks standing very still. They carry canes and those umbrellas and, in one case, a Louisville slugger made of metal. A young man whom, maybe because I look so threatening with my notepad, flashes his black brass knuckles at me.

The crowd continues to chant as a tape blaring from a nearby police car warns on repeat, “NO MARCHING IN THE STREET—IF YOU ARE IN THE STREETS YOU WILL BE SUBJECT TO ARREST.” I ask Gregory McKelvey, who is handing out stickers that read “SARAH for Portland Mayor—#OurPortland,” what he’s doing here today, besides managing Sarah Iannarone’s 2020 campaign.

“I’m here because I think it’s important for the city of Portland to show that anti-fascism doesn’t necessarily look like black-clad protestors,” he shouts above the racket. “That anti-fascism looks like fathers like me, nurses, teachers and really all of the Portland community.”

Including, evidently, a man standing nearby dressed as Obi-Wan Kenobi.

“I think it’s important for everyday anti-fascists to come out and show that this city opposes the bigots that oftentimes infiltrate our city,” McKelvey continues. “I think it’s important that we show up and outnumber these out-of-town, out-of-state bigots.”

How does he think Ted Wheeler’s handled the situation?

“I think that the mayor has promoted a lot of rhetoric that both sides contribute to this violence,” he says. “I think having police in riot gear contributes to a militarized and violent presence here and I think there’s been a lack of guidance and leadership at the top levels that’s led to the situation we’re in.”

Portland Police further kettle the pack, keeping them on this end of the field, keeping them under the bridge. This just as the Proud Boys have marched over a bridge and reached the south end of the park. Portland Police have gotten grief from many quarters in the run-up to the rally, but they do appear to know where the today’s groups are going to amass and how to keep them away from each other. This may well be the result of cooperation from an unlikely quarter: According to Proud Boys chairman Enrique Tarrio, who flew in from Florida for the rally, “As soon as we landed, we spoke with Portland [Police Department]. I was telling them, look, you guys tell me what the best marching route is.”

As for their intent today, Tarrio told his crew the night before the rally that there was to be “no fighting whatsoever….We go in together, and we leave together….We’re going to have a badass time in the park, while [antifa] go and burn down the city.”

The Proud Boys and their supporters spend less than an hour in the park before starting a walk back over the river, this time on the Hawthorne Bridge, which has been reopened for them for this purpose. Entering the bridge’s roadway, the roughly 200 Proud Boys and supporters shout, “USA! USA! USA!” to several construction workers on a scaffold. The workers seem a little bewildered. The group shouts, “Thank you for your service!” to police officers, who say nothing in return.

The march back is subdued, the tenor and energy completely different than being on the ground on the other side. A few people start singing, “Na-na-na-na, hey hey hey, good-bye.” It doesn’t catch on and they continue over the bridge in relative quiet.

“I knew it was going to be calm, but I didn’t know it would be this calm,” says guerrilla street artist and Proud Boy member Sabo, who came up from Los Angeles to march.

Once on the other side, the Proud Boy leadership poses for a group photo. Everyone is smiling and seems relaxed, maybe relieved. Asked if he thinks the day was a success, a Seattle Proud Boy says about his own people, “Absolutely. Not a single person injured, no one arrested.”

“It was healthy discourse in a controlled environment,” says a young man wearing the Proud Boy “uniform” of black Fred Perry polo shirt. “That’s all we can ask.”

“Let’s go fucking barbecue!” someone shouts.

One wonders: What has been accomplished? To what discourse does the young man refer? Antifa was angry that the Proud Boys would show up in “their” city—that they would dare to come here. The Proud Boys countered: You can’t stop us. (Before the day is over, Joe Biggs announces they’ll be back again next month.) Both groups insist it’s the other side making trouble, the other side that’s violent. Each side is reactionary, fed on hatred and on our willingness to keep tuning in for the next episode.

Which, for today, is essentially over by early afternoon. There are a dozen arrests, but very little stemming from confrontation between the groups, more stragglers siphoning off last bits of rage.

Looking like one big fizzle, incidents will be amped and misreported before the sun is down. A video of a man dressed as some sort of gladiator being attacked by a mob while trying to protect his “12-year-old daughter” will be streamed and tweeted, including by Andy Ngo and picked up by Michelle Malkin. It will take me 35 seconds online to learn the gladiator is a serial provocateur and if the person he’s shown with is his daughter, she’s 24. That they appear to have dressed her so she looks like a child strikes me as particularly reprehensible.

“It’s all show business,” says Ben as we walk back over a bridge. Several guys in MAGA caps are yelling “USA!” at a few anarchists; a young man in a black body suit is doing some sort of wiggle dance. “If it were real, there would be bodies stacked.”

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