Lira Slides After US Refuses To Accept More Turkish F-35 Pilots

With the pissing contest between Russia and the US over who will sell Turkey advanced defense missile systems raging, and which the Kremlin appears to be winning, on Friday the US decided to stop accepting any additional Turkish pilots who were set to come to the United States to train on F-35 fighter jets, officials told Reuters in a clear sign of the escalating dispute over Ankara’s plans to purchase Russian air defenses.

The NATO member states have sparred publicly for months over Turkey’s order for Russia’s S-400 air defense system, which Washington says poses a threat to the Lockheed Martin Corp F-35 stealthy fighters, which Turkey also plans to buy.

The US position is simple: Turkey cannot have both, but has avoided taking steps until now to curtail or halt planned training of Turkish pilots in the program, a reprisal that could be seen as an embarrassment in Turkey.

Reuters sources said that the decision could still be reversed, if Turkey altered its plans, however so far Erdogan has refused to do so, oblivious of the escalating war of words from the US, which may soon resort to implementing fresh tariffs on Ankara, whose economy has seen a sharp contraction ever since the issue first came to a head last summer. The sources said the decision so far only applied to upcoming rounds of Turkish pilots and maintenance crews who would have normally come to the United States.

According to Reuters, there has not yet been a formal decision to halt the training of the Turkish pilots and maintenance crews now at Luke Air Force Base in Arizona, although a separate report last week said that the step was being seriously considered.

Four Turkish pilots are currently training at Luke. Two additional Turkish pilots are at the U.S. base working as instructors. Beyond those six Turkish officers, there are an additional 20 Turkish aircraft maintainers at the base undergoing training as well, the U.S. military says.

Turkey has expressed interest in buying 100 of the fighters, which would have a total value of $9 billion at current prices; which is why we doubt the US would ultimately refuse to sell them under pressure from US neocons.

Of course, further escalation is not unlikely, and if Turkey were removed from the F-35 program, it would be one of the most significant ruptures in recent history in the relationship between the two allies, experts said. But strains in ties between Washington and Ankara already extend beyond the F-35 to include conflicting strategy in Syria, Iran sanctions and the detention of U.S. consular staff in Turkey.

The announcement of the decision on the pilots follows signs that Turkey is moving ahead with the S-400 purchase. Defense Minister Hulusi Akar said on May 22 that Turkish military personnel were receiving training in Russia to use the S-400, and that Russian personnel may come to Turkey. Separately, president Erdogan said on Tuesday it was “out of the question” for Turkey to back away from its deal with Moscow.

Kathryn Wheelbarger, one of the Pentagon’s most senior policy officials, said last week that Turkey’s completion of the transaction with Russia would be “devastating,” dealing heavy blows to the F-35 program and to Turkish interoperability within the NATO alliance.

“The S-400 is a Russian system designed to shoot down an aircraft like the F-35,” said Wheelbarger, an acting assistant secretary of defense. “And it is inconceivable to imagine Russia not taking advantage of that (intelligence) collection opportunity.”

News of the escalation sent the lira sliding, ending a whopping 10-day streak of gains for the Turkish currency, the longest since May 2014, as traders returned from the 3-day Eid break.

Not helping the currency was an announcement by the country’s finmin (and Erdogan son-in-law) said inflation may fall to single-digit levels (which is impossible unless the government gives the “China” treatment to its economic data), which however would suggest the central bank would be more likely to cut rates sooner.

 

 

via ZeroHedge News http://bit.ly/2WSbiMb Tyler Durden

Stocks, Dollar, & Bond Yields Tumble After Dismal Jobs Data, Rate-Cut Odds Jump

Well that was disappointing – the dollar and bonds are shifting ‘dovishly’ but stocks are falling as the ‘growth’ bet evaporates.

Futures are giving up overnight gains…

 

Treasury yields are tumbling…10Y below 2.05%

And 2Y below 1.80%

And the dollar is in freefall…

 

Eurodollar markets also shifted 5bps more dovish instantly…

The probability of a June rate-cut is now at 37% and 100% by year-end…

via ZeroHedge News http://bit.ly/2Zb1dHM Tyler Durden

Huge Payrolls Miss: Only 75,000 Jobs Added In May As Hourly Earnings Growth Slows

With the market unsure how to trade today’s payrolls number, with both a very strong and a very poor report likely to spark selling, we just got the verdict: at only 75,000 jobs created in May…

… this was not only the worst print since the shocking 56,000 increase in jobs in February, but also 100,000 below the consensus number of 175,000. It was also below the lowest Wall Street forecast, and 4-sigma below consensus as not a single Wall Street analysts guessed a lower number.

Developing

via ZeroHedge News http://bit.ly/2QX6nEn Tyler Durden

Bonds Are From Venus, Stocks Are From Mars: The Real Conundrum

With stocks set for the best start to a June since 2000 (and best week since November), one would assume that bond yields must be soaring – all that expectation of growth (fueled by expected rate-cuts and a cessation of trade wars?) – but no, bonds have completely ignored this week’s panic-buying farce.

As former fund manager and FX trader Richard Breslow notes, various asset markets have agreed to disagree on what lies ahead. Will today’s payrolls print be too hot, too cold, or – as usual – goldilocks-esque enough to solve the conundrum of bonds and stocks divorce?

Via Bloomberg,

Non-farm payrolls releases may not be the random number generator that pundits like to claim. And whether they get revised or not, until they do, they stand as the most recent marker of where we stand on the issue. To be later verified or debunked. But how markets react on the day can often be the utter wild card.

Following a definitive beat or miss from the data it’s relatively straightforward to guess what the day’s price action is likely to bring. It’s those results that fall into the statistically-insignificant-from-forecast category where it gets tricky. It’s why a lot of disciplined traders choose to trade the expectations, not the actual number. The former is playing the market, the latter can be more akin to a simple roll of the dice.

So, if the number doesn’t somehow completely change investors’ expectations, you can learn a lot more about the underlying drivers of asset prices from the run-up to a number than the aftermath. And what has been going on? A distinctly ambivalent attitude toward risk versus a realization that the world’s central bankers are much more united with each other than any reference to what their political leaders are saying would suggest.

The Fed has tilted dovish. ECB President Mario Draghi was dovish. No matter how the market chose to clear what it had to on the day. The BOJ certainly isn’t going anywhere. And today, we got an unambiguous reaffirmation from PBOC Governor Yi Gang that his institution has “tremendous” flexibility and tools to provide accommodative monetary policy if required. That was actually a sign of strength that traders should take comfort from. Is it any wonder that global equities can be bid while many an analyst continues to urge caution on global conditions in general?

Markets don’t always provide a simple, unifying theory tying every financial instrument’s movements together. Boo hoo for the correlation matrices. It’s fair to point out the inconsistencies between investor attitudes toward different markets without falling on your sword insisting that one of them has to be wrong. Respecting the price action in stocks while also having a strong desire to own bonds or yen is perfectly reasonable.

Caution, amidst temptation, about owning emerging markets may therefore be the most interesting thing going on here. The potential collateral damage from an escalating trade dispute versus lower for longer rates is being played out most vividly with these assets. How it breaks will possibly be the cleanest gauge of how people really feel about global economic conditions going forward.

EM’s fate will be much more dispositive of expectations than listening to someone try to handicap the base case scenario for how negotiations will eventually play out. And at the moment they look decidedly uncertain. Which seems entirely appropriate. Fear and greed are circling each other quietly.

The real conundrum is that no one really knows how much of the global slowdown is actually tied to trade and how much to the economic cycle.

Which makes settling on an appropriate monetary policy very tricky indeed. What’s transitory and what isn’t is entirely unknown. It’s why we talk so much about “insurance policy cuts.” Equity markets understand that is a signal of having friends in important places.

[but we have seen this pattern of hope before]

While other markets can still worry about what it all means for the real economy.

via ZeroHedge News http://bit.ly/2Wum6k9 Tyler Durden

May the House of Representatives Appeal Dismissal of Criminal Charges, When the Justice Department Doesn’t Appeal? 

I blogged about this case a few days ago, and also asked Prof. Jonathan Nash, the author of a recent Michigan Law Review article on Congressional standing whether he could offer a more expert judgment. He very kindly agreed, and passes along this:

The criminal prosecution in United States v. Nagarwala began traditionally enough, with the federal government, acting through the Department of Justice (“DOJ”), bringing criminal charges.  Specifically, the defendants were charged with implementing female genital mutilation in violation of 18 U.S.C. § 116(a).  The district court dismissed most charges in the indictment on the ground that section 116(a) exceeded the federal government’s enumerated powers and was therefore unconstitutional.  DOJ initially filed a notice of appeal, but then withdraw that notice; DOJ notified Congress pursuant to 28 U.S.C. § 530D of its “reluctant[]” decision to concede the statute’s unconstitutionality.

Matters took an unusual turn when the House of Representatives filed a motion to intervene in the case in order to argue on appeal in favor of the statute’s constitutionality.  Prof. Eugene Volokh has previously posted on the dubious nature of the House’s motion on separation-of-powers grounds.  I am grateful for the invitation to add some thoughts on the House’s standing to pursue this course, which I believe is highly problematic.

Two questions are present here: First, does Congress in the ordinary course have standing to assert the constitutionality of a federal statute when the executive branch has decided to abandon that argument?  Second, even if it does, does Congress have standing to do this in a criminal case?

[1.] On the first question, I have argued in favor of a functional approach to congressional standing.  On that understanding, Congress has standing to pursue its interest in information and oversight.  While this is an interest Congress has lately been advancing on numerous fronts with respect to the Trump administration, it has no application here.

A functional approach to congressional standing also recognizes the standing of Congress to challenge vote nullification and process-based changes in institutional bargaining power, i.e., settings where the executive has acted in a way that alters the constitutional balance of lawmaking power between the branches of government.  While this might seem facially to provide a basis for congressional standing here—one might frame DOJ’s action as a unilateral decision to nullify a statute duly enacted by Congress—there are several problems with this argument.

First, I have posited that the argument for congressional standing is stronger where the executive branch acts (i) in a way that results in a substantial change in the balance of power between the branches, and (ii) more unilaterally.  Here, however, the executive branch has simply declared its acquiescence in a court determination that a statute is unconstitutional.  As such, any long-term effect on the constitutional balance of power is low, and the action is hardly unilateral.  Moreover, any concern that DOJ’s action effects a blanket exercise of prosecutorial discretion (thus frustrating Congress’s implicit intent in delegating such discretion on DOJ) is cabined by the fact that future administrations would be free to seek prosecutions under the statute; no reliance rights are conferred on private actors by virtue of DOJ’s action (except to whatever extent the district court decision remains binding authority in that district; and, indeed, it is unlikely that the decision would preclude relitigation of the issue in the same district by a future administration seeking prosecution).

Second, the congressional standing for which I advocate is standing for Congress to challenge the executive branch’s action (or inaction) directly.  Here, Congress does not seek to sue some part of the executive branch, but rather to carry on a criminal prosecution against private individuals in the stead of the executive branch.

One case that provides some basis for Congress’s standing to step into the shoes of the executive branch to defend a statute’s constitutionality is United States v. Windsor.  There, the Supreme Court relied upon the House of Representative’s efforts to defend on appeal the constitutionality of the Defense of Marriage Act (DOMA) after the Obama administration had conceded the statute’s unconstitutionality.  But there the Court understood that a fundamental disagreement remained between the plaintiffs and the executive branch: While the executive branch agreed with the plaintiffs that DOMA was unconstitutional, it refused to pay the tax refund that the plaintiffs sought.  Thus, Article III standing rested on the ongoing dispute between the plaintiffs and the executive branch.  The Court relied upon the House’s argument in favor of constitutionality in order to overcome prudential objections to hearing the case; indeed, the House made its argument solely in an amicus capacity, not as an intervener (as would be the case here).

[2.] Even if Congress somehow enjoys standing in the ordinary course to step into the shoes of the executive to defend the constitutionality of a statute, the question remains whether that standing extends to the setting of criminal prosecutions.  It is often said that standing is not an issue in a federal criminal prosecution, but Professor Michael Collins and I have argued that is only the case where the executive branch, i.e., DOJ, pursues the prosecution.  Thus, we have argued, state prosecutors might face standing hurdles to pursuing prosecutions under the federal criminal law; and, indeed, the Take Care and Appointments Clauses would pose analogous hurdles.  There is every reason to think that the legislative branch would face similar obstacles in pursuing a federal criminal prosecution.  It is the federal executive branch—not state executive branch actors, and not the federal legislative branch—that executes the federal criminal laws and thus enjoys presumptive standing in federal criminal prosecutions.  And, while Congress has an interest in defending the constitutionality of its laws, that would not seem to rise to the level of interest necessary to sustain the sovereign’s interest in prosecuting a particular criminal matter.

The highly circumscribed scope of congressional standing in the criminal context is evident from the limits on congressional informational and oversight standing.  While Congress can issue subpoenas and hold individuals in contempt for failure to abide by those subpoenas, any power to hold such individuals in criminal contempt lies with DOJ, not Congress.

Perhaps the strongest case supporting congressional standing to appeal the district court’s Nagarwala decision is the Supreme Court’s decision in Maine v. Taylor.  There, the defendant was charged with violating a federal statute that criminalizes the importation of fish in violation of governing state importation statutory restrictions.  The defendant moved to dismiss the indictment on the ground that the federal criminal statute here purported to criminalize a state statute that was unconstitutional under the Commerce Clause; with the constitutionality of a state statute now at issue, the state of Maine intervened pursuant to 28 U.S.C. § 2403.   After the district court denied the defendant’s motion, the defendant entered into a guilty plea conditional on the possibility that he might win an appeal contesting the constitutionality of the underlying state statute.  After the United States Court of Appeals for the First Circuit reversed—finding the Maine statute unconstitutional—Maine, as intervener, sought review in the Supreme Court, and the Court upheld Maine’s standing to pursue the appeal.

But Maine v. Taylor offers little support for the House’s standing to pursue the Nagarwala appeal.  For one thing, the opinion includes language indicating that the case should not be read to recognize broad federal criminal standing outside of DOJ (“[P]rivate parties, and perhaps even separate sovereigns, have no legally cognizable interest in the prosecutorial decisions of the Federal Government ….”).

More importantly, there are strong reasons to think that the claim to standing of a state to challenge on appeal a decision in a federal criminal case holding a state statute unconstitutional is far stronger than the analogous claim to standing of Congress to appeal a decision in a federal criminal case holding a federal statute unconstitutional.  After all, in a setting like Maine v. Taylor itself, the entity seeking to intervene and appeal the constitutionality of the statute—the state—is precisely the entity that would be precluded from enforcing the statute in question if the case were to go unappealed.

In contrast, in the Nagarwala setting, the House faces no prospect in the future of enforcing the federal criminal statute even if the district court decision is reversed.  While the state in Maine v. Taylor faced future enforcement decisions regarding the state statute at issue, the House’s interest in Nagarwala extends solely to the constitutionality of the statute.  Put another way, the affront in the vertical separation-of-powers context—visited upon the state executive branch by the federal executive branch declining to defend on appeal a state statute against constitutional challenge—is greater than the affront in the horizontal separation-of-powers context—visited upon the federal legislature by the federal executive branch declining to defend on appeal a federal criminal statute against constitutional challenge.

It is hardly surprising that the state in Maine v. Taylor was represented by the state’s Attorney General’s office, not the state legislature.  Indeed, Congress itself seems to have recognized this logic when it drafted section 2403 (the provision that allowed Maine to intervene).  In any case that draws in question the constitutionality of a state statute that addresses the public interest where the state is not already a party, the statute calls for a federal court to notify the state’s Attorney General, not the state legislature, of that fact.  Analogously, notification of a challenge to a federal statute’s constitutionality is to go to the U.S. Attorney General, not the Congress.

That the House likely lacks standing here does not necessarily preclude congressional action to address female genital mutilation.  Congress could try to craft legislation—whether criminal or civil—that passes constitutional muster.  Indeed, DOJ’s “reluctan[ce]” to abide by the district court’s decision suggests a willingness to enforce laws on the subject that are constitutional.  What Congress likely cannot do is pursue an appeal in this federal criminal matter.

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May the House of Representatives Appeal Dismissal of Criminal Charges, When the Justice Department Doesn’t Appeal? 

I blogged about this case a few days ago, and also asked Prof. Jonathan Nash, the author of a recent Michigan Law Review article on Congressional standing whether he could offer a more expert judgment. He very kindly agreed, and passes along this:

The criminal prosecution in United States v. Nagarwala began traditionally enough, with the federal government, acting through the Department of Justice (“DOJ”), bringing criminal charges.  Specifically, the defendants were charged with implementing female genital mutilation in violation of 18 U.S.C. § 116(a).  The district court dismissed most charges in the indictment on the ground that section 116(a) exceeded the federal government’s enumerated powers and was therefore unconstitutional.  DOJ initially filed a notice of appeal, but then withdraw that notice; DOJ notified Congress pursuant to 28 U.S.C. § 530D of its “reluctant[]” decision to concede the statute’s unconstitutionality.

Matters took an unusual turn when the House of Representatives filed a motion to intervene in the case in order to argue on appeal in favor of the statute’s constitutionality.  Prof. Eugene Volokh has previously posted on the dubious nature of the House’s motion on separation-of-powers grounds.  I am grateful for the invitation to add some thoughts on the House’s standing to pursue this course, which I believe is highly problematic.

Two questions are present here: First, does Congress in the ordinary course have standing to assert the constitutionality of a federal statute when the executive branch has decided to abandon that argument?  Second, even if it does, does Congress have standing to do this in a criminal case?

[1.] On the first question, I have argued in favor of a functional approach to congressional standing.  On that understanding, Congress has standing to pursue its interest in information and oversight.  While this is an interest Congress has lately been advancing on numerous fronts with respect to the Trump administration, it has no application here.

A functional approach to congressional standing also recognizes the standing of Congress to challenge vote nullification and process-based changes in institutional bargaining power, i.e., settings where the executive has acted in a way that alters the constitutional balance of lawmaking power between the branches of government.  While this might seem facially to provide a basis for congressional standing here—one might frame DOJ’s action as a unilateral decision to nullify a statute duly enacted by Congress—there are several problems with this argument.

First, I have posited that the argument for congressional standing is stronger where the executive branch acts (i) in a way that results in a substantial change in the balance of power between the branches, and (ii) more unilaterally.  Here, however, the executive branch has simply declared its acquiescence in a court determination that a statute is unconstitutional.  As such, any long-term effect on the constitutional balance of power is low, and the action is hardly unilateral.  Moreover, any concern that DOJ’s action effects a blanket exercise of prosecutorial discretion (thus frustrating Congress’s implicit intent in delegating such discretion on DOJ) is cabined by the fact that future administrations would be free to seek prosecutions under the statute; no reliance rights are conferred on private actors by virtue of DOJ’s action (except to whatever extent the district court decision remains binding authority in that district; and, indeed, it is unlikely that the decision would preclude relitigation of the issue in the same district by a future administration seeking prosecution).

Second, the congressional standing for which I advocate is standing for Congress to challenge the executive branch’s action (or inaction) directly.  Here, Congress does not seek to sue some part of the executive branch, but rather to carry on a criminal prosecution against private individuals in the stead of the executive branch.

One case that provides some basis for Congress’s standing to step into the shoes of the executive branch to defend a statute’s constitutionality is United States v. Windsor.  There, the Supreme Court relied upon the House of Representative’s efforts to defend on appeal the constitutionality of the Defense of Marriage Act (DOMA) after the Obama administration had conceded the statute’s unconstitutionality.  But there the Court understood that a fundamental disagreement remained between the plaintiffs and the executive branch: While the executive branch agreed with the plaintiffs that DOMA was unconstitutional, it refused to pay the tax refund that the plaintiffs sought.  Thus, Article III standing rested on the ongoing dispute between the plaintiffs and the executive branch.  The Court relied upon the House’s argument in favor of constitutionality in order to overcome prudential objections to hearing the case; indeed, the House made its argument solely in an amicus capacity, not as an intervener (as would be the case here).

[2.] Even if Congress somehow enjoys standing in the ordinary course to step into the shoes of the executive to defend the constitutionality of a statute, the question remains whether that standing extends to the setting of criminal prosecutions.  It is often said that standing is not an issue in a federal criminal prosecution, but Professor Michael Collins and I have argued that is only the case where the executive branch, i.e., DOJ, pursues the prosecution.  Thus, we have argued, state prosecutors might face standing hurdles to pursuing prosecutions under the federal criminal law; and, indeed, the Take Care and Appointments Clauses would pose analogous hurdles.  There is every reason to think that the legislative branch would face similar obstacles in pursuing a federal criminal prosecution.  It is the federal executive branch—not state executive branch actors, and not the federal legislative branch—that executes the federal criminal laws and thus enjoys presumptive standing in federal criminal prosecutions.  And, while Congress has an interest in defending the constitutionality of its laws, that would not seem to rise to the level of interest necessary to sustain the sovereign’s interest in prosecuting a particular criminal matter.

The highly circumscribed scope of congressional standing in the criminal context is evident from the limits on congressional informational and oversight standing.  While Congress can issue subpoenas and hold individuals in contempt for failure to abide by those subpoenas, any power to hold such individuals in criminal contempt lies with DOJ, not Congress.

Perhaps the strongest case supporting congressional standing to appeal the district court’s Nagarwala decision is the Supreme Court’s decision in Maine v. Taylor.  There, the defendant was charged with violating a federal statute that criminalizes the importation of fish in violation of governing state importation statutory restrictions.  The defendant moved to dismiss the indictment on the ground that the federal criminal statute here purported to criminalize a state statute that was unconstitutional under the Commerce Clause; with the constitutionality of a state statute now at issue, the state of Maine intervened pursuant to 28 U.S.C. § 2403.   After the district court denied the defendant’s motion, the defendant entered into a guilty plea conditional on the possibility that he might win an appeal contesting the constitutionality of the underlying state statute.  After the United States Court of Appeals for the First Circuit reversed—finding the Maine statute unconstitutional—Maine, as intervener, sought review in the Supreme Court, and the Court upheld Maine’s standing to pursue the appeal.

But Maine v. Taylor offers little support for the House’s standing to pursue the Nagarwala appeal.  For one thing, the opinion includes language indicating that the case should not be read to recognize broad federal criminal standing outside of DOJ (“[P]rivate parties, and perhaps even separate sovereigns, have no legally cognizable interest in the prosecutorial decisions of the Federal Government ….”).

More importantly, there are strong reasons to think that the claim to standing of a state to challenge on appeal a decision in a federal criminal case holding a state statute unconstitutional is far stronger than the analogous claim to standing of Congress to appeal a decision in a federal criminal case holding a federal statute unconstitutional.  After all, in a setting like Maine v. Taylor itself, the entity seeking to intervene and appeal the constitutionality of the statute—the state—is precisely the entity that would be precluded from enforcing the statute in question if the case were to go unappealed.

In contrast, in the Nagarwala setting, the House faces no prospect in the future of enforcing the federal criminal statute even if the district court decision is reversed.  While the state in Maine v. Taylor faced future enforcement decisions regarding the state statute at issue, the House’s interest in Nagarwala extends solely to the constitutionality of the statute.  Put another way, the affront in the vertical separation-of-powers context—visited upon the state executive branch by the federal executive branch declining to defend on appeal a state statute against constitutional challenge—is greater than the affront in the horizontal separation-of-powers context—visited upon the federal legislature by the federal executive branch declining to defend on appeal a federal criminal statute against constitutional challenge.

It is hardly surprising that the state in Maine v. Taylor was represented by the state’s Attorney General’s office, not the state legislature.  Indeed, Congress itself seems to have recognized this logic when it drafted section 2403 (the provision that allowed Maine to intervene).  In any case that draws in question the constitutionality of a state statute that addresses the public interest where the state is not already a party, the statute calls for a federal court to notify the state’s Attorney General, not the state legislature, of that fact.  Analogously, notification of a challenge to a federal statute’s constitutionality is to go to the U.S. Attorney General, not the Congress.

That the House likely lacks standing here does not necessarily preclude congressional action to address female genital mutilation.  Congress could try to craft legislation—whether criminal or civil—that passes constitutional muster.  Indeed, DOJ’s “reluctan[ce]” to abide by the district court’s decision suggests a willingness to enforce laws on the subject that are constitutional.  What Congress likely cannot do is pursue an appeal in this federal criminal matter.

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Californians Are Now Paying Higher Gas Taxes. Cities Are Responding by Reducing Lanes for Cars.

At a 2017 Riverside rally touting legislation to increase gas taxes and vehicle-license fees to boost California’s infrastructure spending, then-Gov. Jerry Brown was characteristically grandiose.

“Roads are the fundamentals of a civilization,” he said. “Whether it was the Roman Empire or the United States of America, roads are the key to a nation’s greatness.”

As someone who once spent hours driving 50 miles on a decrepit and insanely crowded third-world country’s “highways,” I can attest to the societal importance of a modern, well-maintained freeway system. But the latest news about that gas-tax hike—and the way some cities are using the cash—speaks volumes about our civilization, too. It’s great fodder for an author who wants to chronicle the decline and fall of it.

Senate Bill 1‘s supporters made clear the $5.4 billion a year in additional infrastructure spending would reduce congestion and make getting around much easier. Any normal person would think that meant building new street and highway lanes. This isn’t high-level math: Congestion is caused by too little road space for too many cars, so adding space is the key.

Normal people apparently don’t make transportation decisions. “Two years after state lawmakers boosted the gas tax with a promise to improve California streets, some cities have raised the ire of drivers by spending millions of the new dollars on ‘road diet’ projects that reduce the number and size of lanes for motor vehicles,” according to a Los Angeles Times report.

In November, a majority of California voters opposed a repeal of those gas-tax hikes. People no doubt reasoned that even if they don’t like paying so much extra at the pump, they at least will see tangible improvements in their commutes. In fairness, the tax hike has funded many construction and maintenance projects, but it’s also funded these projects that seem designed to make our awful commutes even worse. It makes no sense.

S.B. 1 is a “landmark transportation investment to rebuild California by fixing neighborhood streets, freeways and bridges in communities across California and targeting funds toward transit and congested trade and commute corridor improvements,” according to the state of California website. That’s a fair description of how its backers described the controversial plan to skeptical taxpayers.

When did anyone ever say anything about “road diets”?

Actually, the law’s fine print promised to add bike lanes and improve road safety. Not many people figured that California cities would do this by building wider, protected bicycle routes and removing the number of traffic lanes in the process. In the city of Sacramento, near where I live, officials have used this strategy. It has turned downtown thoroughfares from a crowded rush-hour mess into total, gridlocked chaos. As humorist Dave Barry would say, “I am not making this up.”

The city realized “the primary collision factor on the streets was unsafe speeds,” Sacramento Mayor Darrell Steinberg said in that news report. “And one of the easiest and most cost-effective ways to reduce the speeds is to reduce the number of travel lanes.” The report pointed to a federal study showing that road diets significantly reduce the number of car accidents.  Well, sure—it’s harder to get in an accident when you’re not moving or crawling along. The next time you’re in gridlock, remember that officials did this to make you safer. Gee, thanks a lot.

This is planned congestion—an extreme case of social engineering trumping traffic engineering. These officials, who want us to sit in traffic longer as a means to avoid accidents or frustrate us into taking the bus or rail, are using the recent tax boost to achieve these goals. Californians have been had, although many of us had issued warnings.

Officials actually admit that they do this. It was obvious, though, given increases in traffic and all those new, obtrusive bicycle lanes surrounded by pylons and delineated by white, painted warning figures and lines on the asphalt. These projects also are designed to promote “equity” by “giving people safe alternatives to cars,” as one supporter told the Times. Bicycling is a fine-enough pastime and a reasonable way to get around in cities, but replacing traffic lanes with bike lanes will only make the traffic worse.

When San Jose opened a light-rail station many years ago, transportation officials reportedly considered closing a nearby highway lane to encourage people to take rail. These road-diets are even loopier. We’ve placed transportation planning in the hands of the Congestion Lobby – officials who are so hostile to car usage that they’ll go to great lengths to coerce us to ride bikes or take their slow, dirty and generally unpleasant transit systems.

Jerry Brown had it right. Roads are indeed a key to a society’s greatness. But I’d add that any civilization that raises gas taxes and then reduces road lanes to purposefully increase traffic congestion is insane and probably living on borrowed time.

This column was first published by the Orange County Register.

Steven Greenhut is Western region director for the R Street Institute. Write to him at sgreenhut@rstreet.org.

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What Would Have To Happen To Get A September Rate Cut?

Authored by Jeffrey Snider via Alhambra Investments,

When the eurodollar futures curve first inverted a year ago in the wake of May 29, 2018, it was the market beginning to hedge against serious and rising risks of something that would force the Federal Reserve to turn around. When that might happen, or how many cuts would eventually follow, those were questions the immediate inversion couldn’t answer.

All the curve said at that point was a serious chance Jay Powell was going to be forced into an involuntarily U-turn at some indeterminate moment in the future. I interpreted this market inversion early in July 2018:

Officials believe right now the economy is “very strong” and that demands the same “rate hike” trajectory. The futures curve is betting there is a good chance they are wrong about that and at some unknown point they’ll have to turn around and face their own mistakes yet again.

This was the middle of 2018, remember, when everyone (in the mainstream) was totally convinced. JP Morgan’s CEO Jamie Dimon had just said the 10-year UST was about to fly upwards to 4% in large part because the Fed was being forced by wage pressures and therefore inflation into becoming more aggressive.

Rate hikes.

For the same man to have his mind changed for him in the space of a year, what would have to happen in the world for this contrary scenario to work out? Nothing good.

Over the last year, “nothing good” has become more and more the baseline.

Over the past week, the “bond market” has surged meaning nominal yields have plunged at the same time expectations for future short-term money rates have, too. We are starting to get some answers about when and how many.

Meaning rate cuts. Soon.

FOMC officials view a second half economic rebound as likely. The market is laughing at them. As of right now, there is a very high probability the first rate cut in what the market is projecting as a series will take place by September. This year.

The Fed meeting during that month is a little over three months from today. Again, what would have to happen in the economy between now and then to force Jay Powell kicking and screaming to propose and then vote for what would be a huge admission of his own huge error?

The headline [Markit Manu] PMI fell to its lowest level since September 2009 as output growth eased and new orders fell for the first time since August 2009. Weak demand conditions and ongoing trade tensions led firms to express the joint-lowest degree of confidence regarding future output growth since data on the outlook were first collected in mid-2012.

Markit’s Manufacturing index was never this low even during the worst of the “manufacturing recession” of Euro$ #3. We are already seeing these sorts of stark negative comparisons which the bond market, eurodollar futures curve included, says is only beginning.

We may already be as bad as the bottom of the near recession of 2015-16 – and Euro$ #4 is just getting warmed up.

If this is the correct view of the economy, then the downside view of eurodollar futures prevails. As those contract prices skyrocket, they increasingly suggest a probability distribution whose downside case is rapidly becoming renewed ZIRP.

What would have to happen in the economy for Jay Powell to kicking and screaming start cutting rates in September 2019 and then keep going all the way back to the zero lower bound? Where full, completed recovery was supposed to be, only more ZIRP and probably more QE. 

Even IHS Markit gets the big picture in the quoted passage above. “Weak demand” before “ongoing trade tensions.”

It’s already pretty shaky and the market is saying this is still just the opening phase.

via ZeroHedge News http://bit.ly/2wIvMbE Tyler Durden

Californians Are Now Paying Higher Gas Taxes. Cities Are Responding by Reducing Lanes for Cars.

At a 2017 Riverside rally touting legislation to increase gas taxes and vehicle-license fees to boost California’s infrastructure spending, then-Gov. Jerry Brown was characteristically grandiose.

“Roads are the fundamentals of a civilization,” he said. “Whether it was the Roman Empire or the United States of America, roads are the key to a nation’s greatness.”

As someone who once spent hours driving 50 miles on a decrepit and insanely crowded third-world country’s “highways,” I can attest to the societal importance of a modern, well-maintained freeway system. But the latest news about that gas-tax hike—and the way some cities are using the cash—speaks volumes about our civilization, too. It’s great fodder for an author who wants to chronicle the decline and fall of it.

Senate Bill 1‘s supporters made clear the $5.4 billion a year in additional infrastructure spending would reduce congestion and make getting around much easier. Any normal person would think that meant building new street and highway lanes. This isn’t high-level math: Congestion is caused by too little road space for too many cars, so adding space is the key.

Normal people apparently don’t make transportation decisions. “Two years after state lawmakers boosted the gas tax with a promise to improve California streets, some cities have raised the ire of drivers by spending millions of the new dollars on ‘road diet’ projects that reduce the number and size of lanes for motor vehicles,” according to a Los Angeles Times report.

In November, a majority of California voters opposed a repeal of those gas-tax hikes. People no doubt reasoned that even if they don’t like paying so much extra at the pump, they at least will see tangible improvements in their commutes. In fairness, the tax hike has funded many construction and maintenance projects, but it’s also funded these projects that seem designed to make our awful commutes even worse. It makes no sense.

S.B. 1 is a “landmark transportation investment to rebuild California by fixing neighborhood streets, freeways and bridges in communities across California and targeting funds toward transit and congested trade and commute corridor improvements,” according to the state of California website. That’s a fair description of how its backers described the controversial plan to skeptical taxpayers.

When did anyone ever say anything about “road diets”?

Actually, the law’s fine print promised to add bike lanes and improve road safety. Not many people figured that California cities would do this by building wider, protected bicycle routes and removing the number of traffic lanes in the process. In the city of Sacramento, near where I live, officials have used this strategy. It has turned downtown thoroughfares from a crowded rush-hour mess into total, gridlocked chaos. As humorist Dave Barry would say, “I am not making this up.”

The city realized “the primary collision factor on the streets was unsafe speeds,” Sacramento Mayor Darrell Steinberg said in that news report. “And one of the easiest and most cost-effective ways to reduce the speeds is to reduce the number of travel lanes.” The report pointed to a federal study showing that road diets significantly reduce the number of car accidents.  Well, sure—it’s harder to get in an accident when you’re not moving or crawling along. The next time you’re in gridlock, remember that officials did this to make you safer. Gee, thanks a lot.

This is planned congestion—an extreme case of social engineering trumping traffic engineering. These officials, who want us to sit in traffic longer as a means to avoid accidents or frustrate us into taking the bus or rail, are using the recent tax boost to achieve these goals. Californians have been had, although many of us had issued warnings.

Officials actually admit that they do this. It was obvious, though, given increases in traffic and all those new, obtrusive bicycle lanes surrounded by pylons and delineated by white, painted warning figures and lines on the asphalt. These projects also are designed to promote “equity” by “giving people safe alternatives to cars,” as one supporter told the Times. Bicycling is a fine-enough pastime and a reasonable way to get around in cities, but replacing traffic lanes with bike lanes will only make the traffic worse.

When San Jose opened a light-rail station many years ago, transportation officials reportedly considered closing a nearby highway lane to encourage people to take rail. These road-diets are even loopier. We’ve placed transportation planning in the hands of the Congestion Lobby – officials who are so hostile to car usage that they’ll go to great lengths to coerce us to ride bikes or take their slow, dirty and generally unpleasant transit systems.

Jerry Brown had it right. Roads are indeed a key to a society’s greatness. But I’d add that any civilization that raises gas taxes and then reduces road lanes to purposefully increase traffic congestion is insane and probably living on borrowed time.

This column was first published by the Orange County Register.

Steven Greenhut is Western region director for the R Street Institute. Write to him at sgreenhut@rstreet.org.

from Latest – Reason.com http://bit.ly/2QREJZw
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Review: The Magicians

When it first premiered on the SyFy channel in 2015, The Magicians used the tagline “magic is a drug,” a signal to audiences that despite its kid-friendly premise—a group of millennials enroll in a school for spellcasters and travel to a Narnia-esque fantasy world—this was very much a show for adults. Like its source material, a popular trilogy of novels by Lev Grossman, The Magicians is filled with sex, violence, addiction, and angst. Protagonist Quentin Coldwater (think Harry Potter crossed with Holden Caulfield), who is clinically depressed, discovers that magic can’t fix what’s wrong with him. It may even make thing worse.

If magic is a drug, strictly regulating sorcery proves just as unwise as the drug war. The fourth season, which concluded in April, begins with a new world order: A bureaucratic organization called “the Library” has taken literal control, forcing all would-be magicians to fill out the proper forms—in triplicate—whenever they want to cast spells. It doesn’t take long for the Library to go full NSA and start using its newfound surveillance powers to hunt down unlicensed magic users. In a development that hardly even counts as a spoiler, the Library’s upper leadership is revealed to be using magic for a nefarious plot that could destroy the entire universe.

One of the show’s most satisfying arcs involves a prominent Librarian realizing the truth and turning against her masters. The plot is ultimately foiled, but it results in a death as shocking as any in recent TV memory—one a polarized fan community is still processing.

from Latest – Reason.com http://bit.ly/2WWmOGi
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