Putin Confirms Deadly Fire Was Aboard “Secretive” Nuclear-Powered Submarine

When the story first broke yesterday that fourteen seaman aboard a Russian submarine died when a fire broke out while in Russian territorial waters in the Arctic region, there were conflicting accounts over the nature of the underwater vessel, specifically, whether it was a deep-sea research submersible or whether it was a nuclear powered submarine. Speculation was fueled further when the fact that many among the deceased were high ranking naval officers was revealed— unusual for a mere underwater “research” vessel. 

Russian President Putin has now confirmed it was indeed a nuclear-powered submarine after officials declined to reveal even the most basic details, citing its “secret mission”. As CBS reports:

Putin met Thursday with Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, who had returned from the Navy’s Arctic base of Severomorsk, and asked him about the submersible’s nuclear reactor. Shoigu said the reactor is “completely isolated now” and it is “in full working order.”

A photograph believed to be of the highly classified shadowy spy sub Losharik, via The Drive.

The blaze has been identified as starting in the sub’s battery compartment and spreading from there, causing 14 crewmen to succumb to smoke inhalation, while an undisclosed number survived. Norwegian officials had also previously reported that they have discovered no unusual levels of radiation near the accident.

Russian officials have not confirmed the precise name and type of vessel; however, Russian media reports appear to have identified it as follows

The ministry didn’t name the vessel, but Russian media reported it was the country’s most secret submersible, a nuclear-powered research submarine called the Losharik intended for sensitive missions at great depths.

Reports say that the Losharik, also called the AS-12, was on a research mission to measure sea depths in the Barents Sea within Russian territorial waters. It’s missions and specs are so tightly guarded only select military members with the highest clearance have access to it. 

A reported picture of Losharik, via The Drive/Russian social media.

But given that mainstream western media can’t waste a Russian submarine tragedy without adding wild accusations of sinister wrongdoing over what the “sensitive mission” could have been about, less than 24 hours later we have the “Putin’s cutting the world’s internet” claims again

BBC Monitoring described US officials as saying the AS-12 is designed to cut undersea cables that keep the world’s internet running.

It’s an accusation that’s been floating around the internet for years. All the way back in 2015 a NYT story cited the Russian underwater cable threat as “raising concerns among some American military and intelligence officials that the Russians might be planning to attack those lines in times of tension or conflict.”

Map showing the location of undersea internet cables around the world, via Telegeography

Russian submarine accident? Cue Putin cutting underwater internet cables story again.

Image via AFP/Getty

Of course, such unconstrained and rampant speculation works better in the complete absence of any level of evidence, and when the Russian military cites a “top secret project”.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters Wednesday when pressed about the precise nature of the Losharik’s activities: “It belongs to the highest level of classified data, so it is absolutely normal for it not to be disclosed.”

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/329MZJq Tyler Durden

For The First Time Ever, German Bund Yields Drop Below The ECB’s Deposit Rate

For the first time ever, the yield on the German 10Y Bund, considered as Europe’s go to safe asset, dropped below the ECB’s -0.40% deposit rate, as consensus forms that the ECB will cut rates by at least 10bps in September, if not sooner especially with Christine Lagarde – widely perceived as just as dovish as Mario Draghi if not more – set to head the ECB.

“The markets are really saying we expect more from the ECB,” Marilyn Watson, head of global fundamental fixed-income strategy at BlackRock told Bloomberg TV. “We expect yields to go lower still.”

The inversion is notable because while the ECB can buy bonds that yield less than the deposit rate, priority is given to those that still offer a premium…. although in Germany, only 15% of the entire bond universe still has a positive yield as 20-year yields also turned negative this week and the 30Y set to follow soon.

This latest curve inversion, which signals that a European recession is looming, has spurred investors to buy riskier assets such as 30 Year Italian bonds, which yesterday saw their biggest one day gain since Draghi’s 2012 “whatever it takes” speech.

10-year German bund yields fell 8bps this week to a record-low minus 0.41%. Italian bonds have outpaced the bund rally to narrow the spread between the two to below 200 basis points Wednesday, the lowest since May 2018.

Germany joins the global curve inversion party, where the U.S., Japan, Canada and the U.K. all now have benchmark bond yields below the central bank’s key interest rate.

Meanwhile, confirming that Albert Edwards’ deflationary “ice age” is upon us, 10Y bonds from Belgium, France and the Netherlands have already joined the sub-zero club, which now amounts to a record $13.4 trillion in negative-yielding debt.

Predictably, as Bloomberg notes, European governments are cashing in, with both Spain and France auctioning debt at record-low borrowing costs on Thursday. France sold a total of 10 billion euros of 10- and 15-year bonds at record-low yields, while Spain sold 3.5 billion euros of debt across the curve.

And while the “Ice Age” is only set to get colder as the world slows down, ADM Investor Services strategist Marc Ostwald warned that the huge stock of bonds yielding below zero might pose risks if the global economy shows signs of a rebound in the second half of the year: “There’s too much cash looking for a safe haven home,” Ostwald said. “Bonds are in for a rough ride.”

Finally, courtesy of Bloomberg’s Tanvir Sindhu, here are some remarkable stats as global bond yields hit all time lows:

  • Year-to-date EGBs returns led by Greece (23%), Spain (10%), Portugal (9.8%) and Belgium (8.8%)
  • Around 25% of global debt now has a negative yield, amounting to a record high of $13.4 trillion
  • The entire core and semi-core European government bond spectrum out to 10-year is trading in negative yielding territory
  • Around 85% of the German government curve trades below 0%
  • Around 55% of Spanish government debt has a negative yield (with selective carry the place to be this year, see more here and here)
  • Italian front-end goes negative as BTPs turbo-charged sending 10Y lower by ~50bps in the five days through Wednesday, the largest such move since June 2018
  • Around 75% of Japanese government debt trades below 0%, highlighting the importance of yield-thirsty flow from Japan into the global bond markets (see examples of analysis here and here on this theme)
  • Around 80% of the active covered bonds of Germany and France, 83% of Spain and 57% of Denmark have negative yields
  • EUR 5y5y inflation swap has given back nearly all of the post-Sintra spike; the ECB needs to restore some inflation credibility, which should be the trigger for 10Y Bund yield to move back toward 0%, helped by positioning being built at yield lows

 

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Remy: Stars and Stripes (Occupational Licensing Parody)

With a love of freedom and an entrepreneurial spirit, Remy takes on his biggest challenge yet: occupational licensing.

Written and Performed by Remy
Produced and Edited by Austin Bragg
Music tracks, mastering, and background vocals by Ben Karlstrom
Lemonade Stand Image Credit: Steven Depolo

LYRICS:

Well if you ask me where I come from
Here’s what I tell everyone
It’s a place that is even more free
Than Jameis Winston‘s groceries

It’s where the stars and stripes and the eagle fly

You can start the business of your dreams
If you pay all of the license fees
Where your kids can go sell lemon juice
Yeah if their license forms have been approved

Where the stars and stripes and the eagle fly

There’s a lady that stands in a harbor for what we believe
Overlooking a guy getting arrested for helping sightsee

You can pull yourself from poverty
All you need’s a bit of elbow grease
And twelve hundred hours of training, twenty grand
Yeah and a permission slip from Uncle Sam

Where the stars and stripes and the eagle fly
Where the stars and stripes and the eagle fly

from Latest – Reason.com https://ift.tt/2Xszmq4
via IFTTT

Remy: Stars and Stripes (Occupational Licensing Parody)

With a love of freedom and an entrepreneurial spirit, Remy takes on his biggest challenge yet: occupational licensing.

Written and Performed by Remy
Produced and Edited by Austin Bragg
Music tracks, mastering, and background vocals by Ben Karlstrom
Lemonade Stand Image Credit: Steven Depolo

LYRICS:

Well if you ask me where I come from
Here’s what I tell everyone
It’s a place that is even more free
Than Jameis Winston‘s groceries

It’s where the stars and stripes and the eagle fly

You can start the business of your dreams
If you pay all of the license fees
Where your kids can go sell lemon juice
Yeah if their license forms have been approved

Where the stars and stripes and the eagle fly

There’s a lady that stands in a harbor for what we believe
Overlooking a guy getting arrested for helping sightsee

You can pull yourself from poverty
All you need’s a bit of elbow grease
And twelve hundred hours of training, twenty grand
Yeah and a permission slip from Uncle Sam

Where the stars and stripes and the eagle fly
Where the stars and stripes and the eagle fly

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S&P Futures Celebrate July 4th Above 3,000 As Global Yields Tumble

With the US closed for Trump Military Parade Day (also known as the 4th of July), and global markets drifting merrily in virtually non-existant volumes, stocks are where we left them at the close on Wednesday, with US futures celebrating not only today’s holiday but also the longest economic expansion in history in style – with the S&P, Dow Nasdaq all at all time highs, and the Emini just above 3,000.

Meanwhile, around the globe government bonds holding near all time lows on Thursday on the hope that economic data deteriorates further, and that a recession, or worse, forces the Fed and other central banks to unleash ZIRP, NIRP and more QE, has pushed world stocks to new 18-month highs.

With US markets closed, there was little action elsewhere: European bourses were flat, with Europe’s Stoxx 600 unchanged amid thin volumes. In Asia, MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan rose 0.2%.

Germany’s 10-year Bund yield fell below -0.4%, dropping as low as -0.49%, piercing the rate set by the ECB’s -0.40% deposit rate for the first time — a sign that markets are expecting further rate cuts.

Other benchmark debt yields also held near record lows in the wake of their recent rally. U.S. 10-year Treasury notes had hit their lowest since November 2016 on Wednesday, pushed down by bets that the European Central Bank’s next head will maintain a dovish policy stance to buoy the euro zone economy. Italian 10-year bond yields stayed close to their lowest since late 2016 after the European Commission dropped its threat to discipline Rome over its public finances, pushing the country’s main bourse to a new two-month peak.

“For central banks, everyone is expecting dovish moves, not only for U.S. but also for Europe and even Japan,” Christophe Barraud, chief economist at Market Securities in Paris, told Reujters. “Everybody is a optimistic for quick central bank moves.”

The fall in U.S. Treasuries came after a barrage of economic data disappointments out of the US, capped by the ADP report showing that U.S. companies added fewer jobs than expected in June, raising concerns the labor market is softening even as the current U.S. economic expansion marked a record run last month. Meanwhile, the Citi US Econ surprise index is trading near the lowest levels observed since the financial crisis.

There was continued weakness in the dollar after President Donald Trump on Wednesday repeated his call for the United States to devalue the USD, and match efforts by China and Europe to manipulate currencies and pump money into their economies.

In FX, continued expectations for rate cuts by the Fed saw the dollar drift away from recent highs amid light flows as most pairs stay range bound. Weaker-than-forecast private U.S. employment data on Wednesday spurred concern that Friday’s jobs data could follow suit and boost the case for lower interest rates. That said, currencies were by and large quiet in early European trade. The euro traded at $1.1284, a touch higher than its two-week low of $1.1268 touched on Wednesday. FX strategists cited by Reuters, said that although the drop in U.S. Treasury yields overnight was negative for the dollar, softness in other currencies was lending some support.

“We are seeing some euro weakness and some dollar weakness, and the two are cancelling each other out,” said Thu Lan Nguyen, FX strategist at Commerzbank. “What is happening in U.S. and euro zone monetary policy will also determine what happens in smaller countries,” she added.

In commodity markets, oil fell on data showing a smaller-than-expected decline in U.S. crude stockpiles and worries about the global economy. Brent crude futures, the international benchmark for oil prices, were flat at $63.84 per barrel by 1109 GMT.

After taking a breather today, US investors will now focus on Friday’s U.S. non-farm payrolls, which economists expect to have sharply rebounded to 160,000 in June compared with 75,000 in May; the number will be closely watched for clues on the Federal Reserve’s next move due in just 4 weeks.

“Friday’s data is important to the extent that it will calibrate expectations for what the Fed could deliver later this month,” said Ned Rumpeltin, European head of FX strategy at Toronto-Dominion Bank in London. “It is more about confirming the market’s current bias rather than setting fresh expectations.”

 

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2XIMqHj Tyler Durden

Emirates Forced To Use Massive Airbus A380s For 40 Minute Trips After Boeing Max Grounding

As a result of Boeing grounding its 737 Max narrow body jet, Emirates Airlines has been forced to divert its massive Airbus A380 super jumbo jets onto short 40 minute trips to replace lost capacity, according to Bloomberg.

Emirates is using the double-decker jets for short flights, like those from Dubai to Oman, which is only 211 miles and is the shortest flight performed by the model. They’re doing it in response to FlyDubai reducing services following the idling of its fleet of fourteen 737 Max planes.

These flights are good indicator of how fallout from the grounding is rippling across the airline industry. Airlines across the globe are being forced to redeploy or lease planes while delaying the retirement of older ones as Boeing works on a fix for the 737 Max.

Emirates said that the A380 flights last only five minutes longer than it takes to clean the jet’s interior in between trips. Online flight data shows that the carrier is managing to fit in other services around the short hops, with some planes being deployed to places like Madrid the same day that they make the short trek.

Muscat was one of the main destinations hit as FlyDubai cut 17% of its services in response to the grounding. Frequencies of flights have been moved down to three times a day, from five times a day, now using Boeing 737–800 planes.

Emirates sells tickets for FlyDubai jets and is operating two of its own flights daily with A380s that carry 519 people. That is 159 more people per trip than the Boeing 777–300s it previously used.

Demand on the route to Muscat is high because the city has acted as a transfer hub for people traveling between the Untied Arab Emirates and Qatar for the last two years after a Saudi boycott of the nation led to a moratorium on direct flights.

Emirates and FlyDubai have become more integrated recently to the extent where they have worked together on routes to avoid duplication. Emirates is still working on deployment plans for its A380 fleet as it continues to try and establish the optimum route schedules for the next 5 to 10 years.

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2Jll14W Tyler Durden

Trump’s Militarized Fourth of July Parade Makes America Less Great

Nationalism, political philosopher Isaiah Berlin observed, is the “inflamed desire of the insufficiently regarded” to prove their significance.

In his 1972 book The Crooked Timber of Humanity, Berlin wrote that nationalist fervor is a “pathological form of self-protective resistance,” a victim mentality that serves as a sort of cultural coping mechanism, emerging from historical wounds or “collective humiliation.”

It follows, then, that the United States would have little reason for such displays. For nearly a century—and certainly, for the past 30 years—America has been the exact opposite of “insufficiently regarded.” There’s no need to remind Americans, or the rest of the world, of that fact by parading tanks through Washington, D.C.

We’ve long left such vulgar displays of power to nations that feel the need to compensate for lacking what Americans enjoy—places like North Korea and the former Soviet Union. Or those that suffer from a pathological sense of victimhood and national inadequacy, like France. Instead, Americans celebrate the Fourth of July joyously with food and recreation. We don’t wallow in our ability to destroy, or the fear that we could be destroyed.

But that will change Thursday, thanks to President Donald Trump—a man who seems to feel he is always insufficiently regarded, and who leads a conservative movement that increasingly exudes a victim mentality instead of embracing what makes America exceptional.

Showing off America’s military might with a parade has been a priority for Trump ever since he witnessed a Bastille Day parade while visiting Paris in 2017. (Making America great again requires aping the French, apparently.) Earlier plans for a Veteran’s Day parade were canceled over worries about cost and optics—marking Armistice Day with a celebration of weapons of war would have been horrifyingly ironic. Independence Day was selected as a suitable alternative.

Trump will preside over a partisan political rally on the National Mall later today, following a military parade through Washington, D.C., complete with tanks, flyovers by Air Force One and the Blue Angels, and military bands. Trump will be surrounded by military brass while it all goes down. “It will be the show of a lifetime,” the president has promised.

It will certainly be memorable.

Nick Gillespie, Reason’s editor at large, writes that “the urge to condemn the event as profoundly un-American…is understandable but ultimately misplaced.” He says anyone getting bent out of shape over “Trump’s vanity production on the Mall” is missing the fact that the president “routinely loses political and cultural battles.”

He’s right about the second half of that, but Trump’s losses on other fronts—from the courts striking down his administration’s attempt to politicize the Census to his inability to reshape global trade to his own liking—does not diminish the necessity of calling a military parade through Washington, D.C., what it is: un-American. (Though I do agree with Nick’s optimism about other consequences of the Trump era, like the breaking down of old political alliances.)

Calling out Trump’s nationalist excesses, after all, isn’t really about stopping Trump from engaging in that behavior. He’s going to do what he wants, clearly. It’s more important to send a signal to whoever follows Trump into the White House that sending tanks rolling through the streets of an American city is not acceptable. As libertarians know well, the norms eroded by one administration are seldom restored or rebuilt by the next.

Yes, the Fourth of July is a commemoration of the fact that America, like many countries, was born in armed conflict. But subtle distinctions matter. The Founders rebelled against British rule in the name of freedom for the everyman (even if the reality of their times fell short of those lofty goals), not in pursuit of flexing their own militarized muscles. The “long train of abuses and usurpations” that Thomas Jefferson documented in the Declaration of Independence does not, notably, include a complaint about insufficient displays of military force on public holidays—not even on the most patriotic of them.

There is a key difference, of course, between patriotism and nationalism. But thanks to nearly two decades of war and mounting levels of national debt, America has developed a political culture that only stops being nihilistic in the moments when it goes full-on apocalyptic. That’s not an environment where subtle distinctions between love for your country and love of the state can be parsed. I don’t know how many Americans are incapable of drawing that distinction, but this Fourth of July will prove that our president cannot.

The parade will cost an estimated $10 million—a huge sum of money to anyone who isn’t presiding over the federal budget, even if it is considerably less than the $92 million price tag originally attached to the event. But that’s only an estimate, and the federal government is not releasing the actual figure. Obviously, it should. If the president is going to hijack a national holiday for what is ostensibly a political rally, taxpayers should know how much it cost. The parade will also require shutting down Reagan National Airport for security reasons. The tanks could damage D.C. streets, requiring expensive and annoying repairs.

It’s fair to point out that Trump’s Fourth of July parade is hardly the most pressing issue America faces on its 243rd birthday. Offhand, I’d say Trump’s immigration policies, trade policies, and inability to get a handle on the national debt are doing more damage to America’s reputation than any parade ever could.

Still, it matters. And it speaks to the political confusion of our current moment. As Berlin also noted, “nationalism does not necessarily and exclusively militate in favor of the ruling class. It animates revolts against it too.” Once you let nationalism out of the bottle, in other words, it can be difficult to control.

That should be a warning for those on the right who are championing the merger of patriotism and nationalism. “Bad ideas can be hard to contain once they get going,” notes Reason managing editor Stephanie Slade in the most recent edition of the magazine. The notion of “benign nationalism,” she adds, quoting former National Review writer Jonah Goldberg, requires the first word of that phrase to do “an awful lot of work.”

Tanks rolling through the streets don’t make America great. Presidents cosplaying as third world authoritarians surrounded by generals don’t make America great. If anything, they show the world that America is in decline. And an angry hegemon that feels the need to stand on its tiptoes in front of the mirror is not strong, but it can be dangerous.

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The Campus Social Justice Warrior’s Guide To Celebrating The Fouth Of July

Authored by Daniel Payne via TheCollegeFix.com,

First of all, don’t actually ‘celebrate’ it…

If you’re woke, then the Fourth of July can be a very triggering “holiday.” After all, it’s the celebration of the founding of the United States of America—a genocidal, colonialist, imperialist warmongering nation that, to this day, doesn’t even guarantee free health care and free condoms for everyone.

It’s possible that you’re marking this year’s Fourth all alone: Many of you may have chosen to remain on campus over the summer rather than return home to your close-minded, ultra-right-wing fascist families, the ones who drink nonorganic dairy milk and who can’t even be bothered to attend any anti-sweatshop protests throughout the year. If that’s the case, then here is a handy guide for “celebrating” the Fourth on your own:

Don’t buy fireworks. First of all, they’re probably illegal to set off out front of your dorm building. Second of all, fireworks are quite obviously symbolic tools of violent colonialist imperialism: Only the ultra-privileged among us could possibly find loud, explosive pyrotechnics “fun” rather than terrifying and triggering. If you must celebrate in some sort of fire-based medium, consider symbolically burning your laptop, which was probably made in China using non-union labor. (Be sure to write your parents and ask for another laptop, because you’ll need it once school starts up again.)

Grill responsibly. Meat is murder. So are most vegetables, which cannot be grown and harvested without killing at least a few groundhogs and numerous pollinators. All is death. If you’re determined to grill out (an obvious callback to patriarchal 1950s white suburban norms, but whatever), be sure to purchase minimally-processed “tofu pups,” meatless alternatives to hotdogs that taste a whopping 5% as good as the real thing (this is an improvement from recent years). Flaxseed and parsley burgers are also an option. Of course, grilling with charcoal does release greenhouse gasses into the air, contributing to colonialist global warming. Consider going to the dining hall instead for a kale-and-quinoa salad, a truly American dinner if ever there was one.

Do your part to fight the fascist government of AmericaThe Fourth of July is supposed to be all about freedom. But actually it’s really a holiday about freedom for white, straight, cisgendered, able-bodied, upper-class, heterosexist white men. We all know this. Instead of taking part in this patriarchal terrorist celebration, consider making it a holiday about real freedom-fighting. Suggestions: Write several snarky tweets about President Trump (bonus points if you retweet some whip-smart anti-conservative takedowns by Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez). Attend a campus Resistance meeting (make sure it’s chaired by a nonbinary two-spirit pansexual person of nonwhite origins). Stage a protest on the Quad in which you gnash your teeth, wail to the heavens and announce your unearned privilege to the world. Probably nobody will attend it, because they’ll all be off at cookouts and pool parties having what they call “fun.” But you know better. Congratulations.

For the un-woke (and woke, if they choose to listen), Payne reminds Americans: The Fourth Of July still means something, it’s not merely an excuse to cook hot dogs and blow things up…

American freedom is facing an existential crisis. This is not—not entirely—because of the determined and persistent efforts of progressives to undermine most of the Bill of Rights; those efforts matter, but they are almost secondary to the broader problem, which is one of apathy. Americans are apt to forget just what it is we have here; we are apt to forget what the Fourth of July means, and what it signifies.

You can see this most clearly on campuses today: The vicious and growing hatred of free speech; the ceaseless trashing of America, of American history, of American government, of American values; the relentless attacks on due process in the form of campus rape tribunals and Title IX kangaroo courts; the opposition to religious plurality and tolerance. The modern American university is, in microcosm, a good encapsulation of many of the major problems affecting American society today.

These nasty values, of course, are increasingly spilling over into the broader culture. And that is a larger problem. The freedoms that we have taken for granted for decades and centuries do not just spring into existence on their own; they are vanishingly rare, not just from a historical perspective but in present-day terms as well. There is not a country in Europe that affords its citizens free speech protections the likes of which are found in America; there is no other country in the world in which the right to bear arms is a basic civic assumption; for goodness’s sake, our foundational document presumes the right of the people to overthrow their own government. These are unique and precious freedoms. They came to be only after a long series of difficult choices by men and women who had no guarantee of success. We are inestimably lucky to have them.

This Fourth of July, remember that. Remember that the campus social justice warriors are wrong; remember that their counterparts on progressive cable television are wrong as well, and that their efforts to dismantle our invaluable liberties should be resisted at every opportunity. This holiday is not merely an excuse to grill out, drink beer and watch colorful explosions (though those things are very fun); it is a chance to remember why this country exists, why it has endured, and why we should rededicate ourselves every year to the continuation of the freedom with which we have been so long blessed.

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2RUK96h Tyler Durden

Trump’s Militarized Fourth of July Parade Makes America Less Great

Nationalism, political philosopher Isaiah Berlin observed, is the “inflamed desire of the insufficiently regarded” to prove their significance.

In his 1972 book The Crooked Timber of Humanity, Berlin wrote that nationalist fervor is a “pathological form of self-protective resistance,” a victim mentality that serves as a sort of cultural coping mechanism, emerging from historical wounds or “collective humiliation.”

It follows, then, that the United States would have little reason for such displays. For nearly a century—and certainly, for the past 30 years—America has been the exact opposite of “insufficiently regarded.” There’s no need to remind Americans, or the rest of the world, of that fact by parading tanks through Washington, D.C.

We’ve long left such vulgar displays of power to nations that feel the need to compensate for lacking what Americans enjoy—places like North Korea and the former Soviet Union. Or those that suffer from a pathological sense of victimhood and national inadequacy, like France. Instead, Americans celebrate the Fourth of July joyously with food and recreation. We don’t wallow in our ability to destroy, or the fear that we could be destroyed.

But that will change Thursday, thanks to President Donald Trump—a man who seems to feel he is always insufficiently regarded, and who leads a conservative movement that increasingly exudes a victim mentality instead of embracing what makes America exceptional.

Showing off America’s military might with a parade has been a priority for Trump ever since he witnessed a Bastille Day parade while visiting Paris in 2017. (Making America great again requires aping the French, apparently.) Earlier plans for a Veteran’s Day parade were canceled over worries about cost and optics—marking Armistice Day with a celebration of weapons of war would have been horrifyingly ironic. Independence Day was selected as a suitable alternative.

Trump will preside over a partisan political rally on the National Mall later today, following a military parade through Washington, D.C., complete with tanks, flyovers by Air Force One and the Blue Angels, and military bands. Trump will be surrounded by military brass while it all goes down. “It will be the show of a lifetime,” the president has promised.

It will certainly be memorable.

Nick Gillespie, Reason’s editor at large, writes that “the urge to condemn the event as profoundly un-American…is understandable but ultimately misplaced.” He says anyone getting bent out of shape over “Trump’s vanity production on the Mall” is missing the fact that the president “routinely loses political and cultural battles.”

He’s right about the second half of that, but Trump’s losses on other fronts—from the courts striking down his administration’s attempt to politicize the Census to his inability to reshape global trade to his own liking—does not diminish the necessity of calling a military parade through Washington, D.C., what it is: un-American. (Though I do agree with Nick’s optimism about other consequences of the Trump era, like the breaking down of old political alliances.)

Calling out Trump’s nationalist excesses, after all, isn’t really about stopping Trump from engaging in that behavior. He’s going to do what he wants, clearly. It’s more important to send a signal to whoever follows Trump into the White House that sending tanks rolling through the streets of an American city is not acceptable. As libertarians know well, the norms eroded by one administration are seldom restored or rebuilt by the next.

Yes, the Fourth of July is a commemoration of the fact that America, like many countries, was born in armed conflict. But subtle distinctions matter. The Founders rebelled against British rule in the name of freedom for the everyman (even if the reality of their times fell short of those lofty goals), not in pursuit of flexing their own militarized muscles. The “long train of abuses and usurpations” that Thomas Jefferson documented in the Declaration of Independence does not, notably, include a complaint about insufficient displays of military force on public holidays—not even on the most patriotic of them.

There is a key difference, of course, between patriotism and nationalism. But thanks to nearly two decades of war and mounting levels of national debt, America has developed a political culture that only stops being nihilistic in the moments when it goes full-on apocalyptic. That’s not an environment where subtle distinctions between love for your country and love of the state can be parsed. I don’t know how many Americans are incapable of drawing that distinction, but this Fourth of July will prove that our president cannot.

The parade will cost an estimated $10 million—a huge sum of money to anyone who isn’t presiding over the federal budget, even if it is considerably less than the $92 million price tag originally attached to the event. But that’s only an estimate, and the federal government is not releasing the actual figure. Obviously, it should. If the president is going to hijack a national holiday for what is ostensibly a political rally, taxpayers should know how much it cost. The parade will also require shutting down Reagan National Airport for security reasons. The tanks could damage D.C. streets, requiring expensive and annoying repairs.

It’s fair to point out that Trump’s Fourth of July parade is hardly the most pressing issue America faces on its 243rd birthday. Offhand, I’d say Trump’s immigration policies, trade policies, and inability to get a handle on the national debt are doing more damage to America’s reputation than any parade ever could.

Still, it matters. And it speaks to the political confusion of our current moment. As Berlin also noted, “nationalism does not necessarily and exclusively militate in favor of the ruling class. It animates revolts against it too.” Once you let nationalism out of the bottle, in other words, it can be difficult to control.

That should be a warning for those on the right who are championing the merger of patriotism and nationalism. “Bad ideas can be hard to contain once they get going,” notes Reason managing editor Stephanie Slade in the most recent edition of the magazine. The notion of “benign nationalism,” she adds, quoting former National Review writer Jonah Goldberg, requires the first word of that phrase to do “an awful lot of work.”

Tanks rolling through the streets don’t make America great. Presidents cosplaying as third world authoritarians surrounded by generals don’t make America great. If anything, they show the world that America is in decline. And an angry hegemon that feels the need to stand on its tiptoes in front of the mirror is not strong, but it can be dangerous.

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Justin Amash Declares Independence From Republican Party

One month after Donald Trump took his oath of office, Rep. Justin Amash (R–Mich.) pinned at the top of his very active Twitter feed George Washington’s famous farewell address warning against “the baneful effects of the spirit of party generally.”

This morning, not seven weeks after breaking ranks with this party in calling for impeachment proceedings against the president, Amash announced in a Washington Post op-ed that he’s leaving the GOP and declaring himself an independent.

“Today, I am declaring my independence and leaving the Republican Party,” the five-term congressman wrote. “No matter your circumstance, I’m asking you to join me in rejecting the partisan loyalties and rhetoric that divide and dehumanize us….The two-party system has evolved into an existential threat to American principles and institutions.”

Amash, 39, had become increasingly isolated within the congressional GOP long before spelling out in a Twitter thread his conclusion that Trump “has engaged in impeachable conduct.” He crossed swords with the administration on the travel ban, Obamacare repeal/replace, the firing of then–FBI director James Comey, various spending increases, tariffs, the president’s relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin, birthright citizenship, Saudi Arabia, eminent domain, and the emergency declaration along the border, for starters.

Since the impeachment apostasy, Amash has become a GOP pariah, drawing rebukes from the very House Freedom Caucus he co-founded, defections of key financial supporters, primary challengers, and freelance sniping from Michigan’s congressional Republicans. “In this hyperpartisan environment,” Amash lamented today, “congressional leaders use every tool to compel party members to stick with the team, dangling chairmanships, committee assignments, bill sponsorships, endorsements and campaign resources.”

In a July 2017 interview with Reason (you can watch the whole thing below), the Grand Rapids native said that he preferred the descriptor “libertarian” rather than “libertarian-leaning Republican,” and stated that “hopefully, over time, these two parties start to fall apart.” Americans, he said, “need to move away from this idea that you just have two parties who are at war with each other, and one party is good and the other party is evil, because that leads to all sorts of bad outcomes. You get end-justifies-the-means thinking in just about everything, and liberty doesn’t really have an opportunity to flourish in that sort of environment.”

The congressman hit similar notes in his op-ed, quoting more extensively from Washington’s speech (“one of America’s most prescient addresses”), and furthering what Peter Suderman in these pages has characterized as “a critique of reflexive partisanship and a system that works from the expectations that party affiliation is the most important (and, in many cases, the only) factor that matters in high-stakes political decisions.”

“Americans have allowed government officials, under assertions of expediency and party unity, to ignore the most basic tenets of our constitutional order: separation of powers, federalism and the rule of law,” Amash wrote. “The result has been the consolidation of political power and the near disintegration of representative democracy.”

As a result: “Instead of acting as an independent branch of government and serving as a check on the executive branch, congressional leaders of both parties expect the House and Senate to act in obedience or opposition to the president and their colleagues on a partisan basis.”

It is notable that Amash is going indie, and not joining the political party whose name matches his preferred ideological descriptor. This carries both practical and rhetorical considerations.

On the practical side, the congressman will no longer be a candidate in the April 2020 Republican primary for Michigan’s third congressional district; he is expected instead to file papers to run for re-election as an independent. The Amash team had previously expressed confidence in the face of early polls showing his main primary challenger 16 percentage points ahead, but now will have to make an electability case based on the power of incumbency in a three-way contest. (Michigan is a straight-ticket ballot state, which he told me in August 2018 “makes it prohibitive to run outside of the major parties.”)

Amash’s announcement is also sure to fuel ongoing speculation that he’s readying a bid for the 2020 Libertarian Party presidential nomination, a prospect even his own would-be competitors are cheering on. The party’s selection doesn’t take place until May 2020, so until and unless Amash rules out a run, the next nine months will be a festival of guessing, gamesmanship, and gossip.

But in his piece today, which does not mention the president by name, the congressman is more concerned with how two-party partisans are fighting more viciously over a shrinking pie of public affiliation.

“Modern politics is trapped in a partisan death spiral, but there is an escape,” he writes. “Most Americans are not rigidly partisan and do not feel well represented by either of the two major parties. In fact, the parties have become more partisan in part because they are catering to fewer people, as Americans are rejecting party affiliation in record numbers.”

Perhaps mindful that his impeachment comments demonstrably moved public opinion among political independents, Amash continues.

“These same independent-minded Americans, however, tend to be less politically engaged than Red Team and Blue Team activists,” he writes. “Many avoid politics to focus on their own lives, while others don’t want to get into the muck with the radical partisans.”

And so: “I’m asking you to believe that we can do better than this two-party system—and to work toward it. If we continue to take America for granted, we will lose it.”

Reason‘s interview with Amash from July 2017:

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