Social Security Is Totally Secure. Or Is It? A Debate.

Given Social Security’s nearly $3 trillion trust fund, the system cannot add to the federal deficit.

That was the topic of a public debated hosted by the Soho Forum in New York City on June 17, 2019. It featured Teresa Ghilarducci, a labor economist at the New School for Social Research, and Gene Epstein, the director of the Soho Forum. Reason‘s Nick Gillespie moderated.

It was an Oxford-style debate, in which the audience votes on the resolution at the beginning and end of the event, and the side that gains the most ground is victorious. Epstein prevailed in the debate by convincing 35 percent of audience members to change their minds.

Arguing for the affirmative was Ghilarducci, whose 2018 book, Rescuing Retirement, advocates individual guaranteed retirement accounts for workers. Ghilarducci’s 2015 book, How to Retire With Enough Money, is a practical guide to financial security in retirement. Ghilarducci is the director of The Schwartz Center for Economic Policy Analysis, a think tank that studies the government’s role in the economy.

Epstein argued for the negative. Epstein is the Soho Forum’s director and the former economics and books editor of Barron’s. His last published book was Econospinning: How to Read between the Lines when the Media Manipulate the Numbers. He has taught economics at the City University of New York and St. John’s University, and worked as a senior economist for the New York Stock Exchange.

The Soho Forum, which is sponsored by the Reason Foundation, is a monthly debate series at the SubCulture Theater in Manhattan’s East Village.

Music: “Modum” by Kai Engle is licensed under a CC-BY creative commons license.

Produced by Todd Krainin.

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Social Security Is Totally Secure. Or Is It? A Debate.

Given Social Security’s nearly $3 trillion trust fund, the system cannot add to the federal deficit.

That was the topic of a public debated hosted by the Soho Forum in New York City on June 17, 2019. It featured Teresa Ghilarducci, a labor economist at the New School for Social Research, and Gene Epstein, the director of the Soho Forum. Reason‘s Nick Gillespie moderated.

It was an Oxford-style debate, in which the audience votes on the resolution at the beginning and end of the event, and the side that gains the most ground is victorious. Epstein prevailed in the debate by convincing 35 percent of audience members to change their minds.

Arguing for the affirmative was Ghilarducci, whose 2018 book, Rescuing Retirement, advocates individual guaranteed retirement accounts for workers. Ghilarducci’s 2015 book, How to Retire With Enough Money, is a practical guide to financial security in retirement. Ghilarducci is the director of The Schwartz Center for Economic Policy Analysis, a think tank that studies the government’s role in the economy.

Epstein argued for the negative. Epstein is the Soho Forum’s director and the former economics and books editor of Barron’s. His last published book was Econospinning: How to Read between the Lines when the Media Manipulate the Numbers. He has taught economics at the City University of New York and St. John’s University, and worked as a senior economist for the New York Stock Exchange.

The Soho Forum, which is sponsored by the Reason Foundation, is a monthly debate series at the SubCulture Theater in Manhattan’s East Village.

Music: “Modum” by Kai Engle is licensed under a CC-BY creative commons license.

Produced by Todd Krainin.

Subscribe to our YouTube channel.

Like us on Facebook.

Follow us on Twitter.

Subscribe to our podcast at iTunes.

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Prominent Pornography Researcher Frames Defamation Claims As Sexual Harassment, Prompting a Defamation Suit by Her Target

For years neurosurgeon Donald Hilton and neuroscientist Nicole Prause have been clashing on the pros and cons of pornography. Hilton, author of the 2009 book He Restoreth My Soul: Understanding and Breaking the Chemical and Spiritual Chains of Pornography Addiction Through the Atonement of Jesus Christ, warns that pornography is highly addictive and constitutes a “public health crisis,” while Prause, a former UCLA researcher who founded and heads the sexual biotechnology company Liberos, tends to take a more sanguine view. Now the two intellectual combatants are facing off in a bizarre defamation case featuring dueling claims that each is trying to destroy the other’s reputation.

On April 16, Prause emailed the University of Texas Health Science Center at San Antonio (UTHSCSA), where Hilton is an adjunct associate professor, to complain that she was “being openly sexually harassed by your faculty member Dr. Donald Hilton.” Specifically, she said, Hilton “publicly claims that I personally appear in pornographic films, attend the Adult Video Network awards, and molest children in my laboratory, because I trained at The Kinsey Institute.” She added that all those claims were “demonstrably false.”

The next day, Prause asked UTHSCSA to “please confirm that this sexual harassment complaint is being directed to the appropriate office for investigation.” Two weeks later she emailed UTHSCA’s Legal Affairs Office to say she’d been told that Hilton “was not an employee, but had a ‘courtesy’ title due to volunteering to do something.” She added, “If you are giving these titles to people, and they use them to defame and sexually harass scientists, it seems their title should be rescinded.”

A U.T. spokesperson told the San Antonio Express News the university has no authority to investigate the matter, since neither Hilton nor Prause is an employee. Nor was that the only puzzling aspect of Prause’s complaint, which framed what are essentially defamation claims as sexual harassment.

The Equal Employment Opportunity Commission defines sexual harassment as harassment of an applicant, employee, or co-worker “because of that person’s sex.” The EEOC says such harassment may include “unwelcome sexual advances, requests for sexual favors, and other verbal or physical harassment of a sexual nature,” although it “does not have to be of a sexual nature” and “can include offensive remarks about a person’s sex.” For example, “it is illegal to harass a woman by making offensive comments about women in general.” But sexual harassment is illegal only “when it is so frequent or severe that it creates a hostile or offensive work environment or when it results in an adverse employment decision.”

Prause’s complaint about Hilton does not readily fit this understanding of sexual harassment. Since she is “a female scientist,” she argued in her initial email to UTHSCSA, Hilton is “uniquely attacking my gender with these false claims about my sexuality.” By that reasoning, it would be sexual harassment to allege that a woman had appeared in pornographic films, but it would not be sexual harassment to allege that a man had done so.

UCLA law professor Eugene Volokh, a First Amendment specialist, questions Prause’s “novel and pretty dangerous” definition of sexual harassment. “She’s trying to redefine the term, with all its understandably negative connotations, to cover public criticisms (and not of coworkers or fellow students or the like) that involve ‘attacking [a person’s] gender with…false claims about [her] sexuality,'” he writes in an email. “She seems to be deliberately framing the claim not as one of libel by Hilton, perhaps because libel law is well known to be sharply limited by the First Amendment, and something that is generally left to the civil justice system. Instead, she’s framing it as a sexual harassment claim, perhaps because sexual harassment law is seen by some (wrongly, I think) as largely immune from First Amendment constraints, and because universities and other employers are the ones that are enforcing sexual harassment rules.”

In the defamation lawsuit that Hilton filed last week in response to Prause’s complaint, he says he has met her in person only once, at a 2009 conference where “nothing inappropriate was said or done.” Since then, he says, he and Prause “have not had any personal communications or interactions.” Hilton says he “has never flirted with Defendant Prause, made any sexual advancements towards her, or committed any other type of sexual misconduct towards her” or anyone else. He argues that her complaint against him is an attempt to discredit an intellectual opponent by making baseless charges—a tactic he says she has used against other critics of pornography.

Furthermore, Hilton denies claiming that Prause has appeared in pornographic films or that she is implicated in child molestation. He says she has attended the Adult Video Network awards, citing a 2018 Twitter post in which she said, “I think Jeanne’s story I heard at AVN was amazing.”

I emailed questions to Prause’s lawyer and received some responses. “I have never attended the AVN awards ceremony, [and] Hilton was aware that I never attended at the time the lawsuit was filed,” Prause said. “I have no relationship with the pornography industry.”

In a 2019 talk to the Catholic Medical Association, Hilton said “someone” had “recently” told him that Prause “didn’t go to AVN.” He added, “Well, maybe she didn’t, but what do I do with that?”—referring to the Twitter post. When I asked Prause’s lawyer to clarify that point, he replied, “Given the timing, including the holiday, we do not have anything additional at this time.”

As for the other claims Prause attributes to Hilton, she said “many written, spoken and audio records exist.” In a 2016 talk to the Northwest Coalition for Healthy Intimacy, for example, Hilton noted that Prause had trained at the Kinsey Institute, then proceeded to fault Alfred Kinsey for studying “child sexuality” and the behavior of pedophiles as part of the research discussed in his 1948 book Sexual Behavior in the Human Male. While Hilton clearly was trying to taint researchers like Prause with what he considers to be Kinsey’s morally abhorrent legacy, that’s not quite the same as saying that she “molest[s] children in [her] laboratory”—the claim that Prause attributed to Hilton in her April 16 email.

Prause did not point me to any examples of comments in which Hilton claimed she had appeared in pornographic films. But in her sexual harassment complaint, she said he had encouraged a Houston Chronicle reporter to “print that I was in pornography with no evidence” and that the reporter “was able to determine Donald Hilton’s claims were fabricated.”

Prause’s April 16 email to UTHSCSA included hyperlinks and attachments that are not included in Hilton’s defamation lawsuit. I asked her lawyer if I could see those, since they should shed light on the basis for her claims, but have not received a response.

Hilton says Prause is trying to discredit his work through false personal attacks, and in her response to me Prause says the same thing about Hilton:

Many people are uncomfortable with science. However, facts matter. The facts that your readers should know are simple: I study sexual science based on neuroscience and physiology. I was trained in addictions at Harvard University, won numerous academic awards, and believe in open and honest debate and discussion.

I have never received support from, or been involved in, the pornography industry, including attending the AVN awards. I have never made any false reports regarding Dr. Hilton or anyone else, nor have I made false reports about my research or company. The facts and results of my peer-reviewed research speak for themselves; they are not intended to address any system of morality, activism, or religious beliefs.

Dr. Hilton’s lawsuit has no merit nor do his libelous and unfounded assertions regarding me, my character, or my sexuality. He is entitled to his opinions, however he is not entitled to spread complete falsehoods about me.

Hilton’s lawsuit, which was initially filed in the District Court of Bexar County, Texas, but has been moved to federal court because he and Prause live in different states, seeks up to $10 million in actual and punitive damages. It also asks for “a preliminary and permanent injunction preventing Defendant Prause from making additional false statements.” As Volokh notes, such injunctions against future statements are barred as an unconstitutional prior restraint on speech under Texas law, which will continue to apply as the case proceeds in federal court.

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These Are The 3 Drivers Behind Today’s Melt-Up: Nomura

Yesterday we presented Goldman’s simple, yet accurate, explanation why there is now a “bull market in almost everything” – as the bank that appropriately has incubated more central bankers than anyone else, concluded, “monetary policy” remains the main driver of risk appetite.

Goldman is, of course, right. But while that is the one – and only – reason behind the market’s relentless levitation for the past decade, what about the catalysts behind the most recent melt-up, which has sent global bond yields plunging to record lows… and the S&P 500 to record highs, something even Trump gleefully observed this morning.

According to Nomura’s Charlie McElligott, there are three distinct technical drivers behind the latest overnight extension of the global “duration rally”—as well as the mechanical catalysts behind the US Equities explosion higher

  1. “Net-Up/Gross-Up” flows now prevalent off the back of the recently-highlighted “UNDER-positioning” dynamic;
  2. Return of systematic VIX rolldown players as second-order catalyst for Stocks;
  3. Massive $Gamma at higher strikes, pulling Equities higher

Drilling down further into each of these separate catalysts, here is more from McElligott starting with… 

1. Net-Up”/“Gross-Up” flows due to “under-positioning” dynamic.

  • Equities simply cannot get enough of this “dovish” US Rates trade either, with S&P futures making fresh all-time highs overnight—while it is the “Duration Sensitives” again leading in standard “Slow-flation” fashion: Nasdaq futures are +3.1% in 6 sessions (remember, “Secular Growth” is positively correlated to low yields, as they justify valuations), while yesterday saw the other end of the “Slow-flation Risk Barbell” being low-volatility “Defensives” leading the tape higher (REITS, Utes, Staples and Healthcare as four of the top five best S&P sector performers on the session)
  • We are now very clearly seeing a major “net-up”/“gross-up” trade going through week-to-date, as funds are forced to re-engage into this US Equities breakout
  • We are seeing the “reversal of the reversal,” as the past two weeks’ worth of “Momentum Unwind” is now being “put back on” with violence—with YTD leaders / Crowded Longs / Overweights ripping higher again week-to-date, while conversely, “Popular / Momentum Shorts” are again being smashed (i.e. the Cyclical / Value stuff, with Industrials, Materials, Financials and Energy as the S&P’s four worst sectors yesterday)

Visually, the “momentum” factor ripping higher as winners are “piled back into” while “loser” cyclical shorts are being pressed

2. VIX Futures curve is back in steep contango

As front vol gets crushed, sending the VIX futures curve steep into contango, systematic vol players are re-engaging in roll-down strategies, which reflexively becomes a  second order catalyst for Equities, as Dealers need to get long more Delta or create more Gamma via options to hedge i.e., Dealer hedging of this flow is daisy-chaining into “more Delta buying” and / or “more Gamma at upper strikes”.

 

3. Gamma Gravity

There is “MONSTER” notional $Gamma at UPSIDE strikes in SPX / consolidated SPY options which acts to “pull” us higher. According to McElligott, the 3000 strike is nearly a multiple of other strikes from a $Gamma perspective—but there are lumpy notionals all the way up (2975, 2980, 2990, 3000, 3025 and 3050)

Finally, here is a breakdown of gamma by strike, “showing the amount of pull to the upside.”

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Prominent Pornography Researcher Frames Defamation Claims As Sexual Harassment, Prompting a Defamation Suit by Her Target

For years neurosurgeon Donald Hilton and neuroscientist Nicole Prause have been clashing on the pros and cons of pornography. Hilton, author of the 2009 book He Restoreth My Soul: Understanding and Breaking the Chemical and Spiritual Chains of Pornography Addiction Through the Atonement of Jesus Christ, warns that pornography is highly addictive and constitutes a “public health crisis,” while Prause, a former UCLA researcher who founded and heads the sexual biotechnology company Liberos, tends to take a more sanguine view. Now the two intellectual combatants are facing off in a bizarre defamation case featuring dueling claims that each is trying to destroy the other’s reputation.

On April 16, Prause emailed the University of Texas Health Science Center at San Antonio (UTHSCSA), where Hilton is an adjunct associate professor, to complain that she was “being openly sexually harassed by your faculty member Dr. Donald Hilton.” Specifically, she said, Hilton “publicly claims that I personally appear in pornographic films, attend the Adult Video Network awards, and molest children in my laboratory, because I trained at The Kinsey Institute.” She added that all those claims were “demonstrably false.”

The next day, Prause asked UTHSCSA to “please confirm that this sexual harassment complaint is being directed to the appropriate office for investigation.” Two weeks later she emailed UTHSCA’s Legal Affairs Office to say she’d been told that Hilton “was not an employee, but had a ‘courtesy’ title due to volunteering to do something.” She added, “If you are giving these titles to people, and they use them to defame and sexually harass scientists, it seems their title should be rescinded.”

A U.T. spokesperson told the San Antonio Express News the university has no authority to investigate the matter, since neither Hilton nor Prause is an employee. Nor was that the only puzzling aspect of Prause’s complaint, which framed what are essentially defamation claims as sexual harassment.

The Equal Employment Opportunity Commission defines sexual harassment as harassment of an applicant, employee, or co-worker “because of that person’s sex.” The EEOC says such harassment may include “unwelcome sexual advances, requests for sexual favors, and other verbal or physical harassment of a sexual nature,” although it “does not have to be of a sexual nature” and “can include offensive remarks about a person’s sex.” For example, “it is illegal to harass a woman by making offensive comments about women in general.” But sexual harassment is illegal only “when it is so frequent or severe that it creates a hostile or offensive work environment or when it results in an adverse employment decision.”

Prause’s complaint about Hilton does not readily fit this understanding of sexual harassment. Since she is “a female scientist,” she argued in her initial email to UTHSCSA, Hilton is “uniquely attacking my gender with these false claims about my sexuality.” By that reasoning, it would be sexual harassment to allege that a woman had appeared in pornographic films, but it would not be sexual harassment to allege that a man had done so.

UCLA law professor Eugene Volokh, a First Amendment specialist, questions Prause’s “novel and pretty dangerous” definition of sexual harassment. “She’s trying to redefine the term, with all its understandably negative connotations, to cover public criticisms (and not of coworkers or fellow students or the like) that involve ‘attacking [a person’s] gender with…false claims about [her] sexuality,'” he writes in an email. “She seems to be deliberately framing the claim not as one of libel by Hilton, perhaps because libel law is well known to be sharply limited by the First Amendment, and something that is generally left to the civil justice system. Instead, she’s framing it as a sexual harassment claim, perhaps because sexual harassment law is seen by some (wrongly, I think) as largely immune from First Amendment constraints, and because universities and other employers are the ones that are enforcing sexual harassment rules.”

In the defamation lawsuit that Hilton filed last week in response to Prause’s complaint, he says he has met her in person only once, at a 2009 conference where “nothing inappropriate was said or done.” Since then, he says, he and Prause “have not had any personal communications or interactions.” Hilton says he “has never flirted with Defendant Prause, made any sexual advancements towards her, or committed any other type of sexual misconduct towards her” or anyone else. He argues that her complaint against him is an attempt to discredit an intellectual opponent by making baseless charges—a tactic he says she has used against other critics of pornography.

Furthermore, Hilton denies claiming that Prause has appeared in pornographic films or that she is implicated in child molestation. He says she has attended the Adult Video Network awards, citing a 2018 Twitter post in which she said, “I think Jeanne’s story I heard at AVN was amazing.”

I emailed questions to Prause’s lawyer and received some responses. “I have never attended the AVN awards ceremony, [and] Hilton was aware that I never attended at the time the lawsuit was filed,” Prause said. “I have no relationship with the pornography industry.”

In a 2019 talk to the Catholic Medical Association, Hilton said “someone” had “recently” told him that Prause “didn’t go to AVN.” He added, “Well, maybe she didn’t, but what do I do with that?”—referring to the Twitter post. When I asked Prause’s lawyer to clarify that point, he replied, “Given the timing, including the holiday, we do not have anything additional at this time.”

As for the other claims Prause attributes to Hilton, she said “many written, spoken and audio records exist.” In a 2016 talk to the Northwest Coalition for Healthy Intimacy, for example, Hilton noted that Prause had trained at the Kinsey Institute, then proceeded to fault Alfred Kinsey for studying “child sexuality” and the behavior of pedophiles as part of the research discussed in his 1948 book Sexual Behavior in the Human Male. While Hilton clearly was trying to taint researchers like Prause with what he considers to be Kinsey’s morally abhorrent legacy, that’s not quite the same as saying that she “molest[s] children in [her] laboratory”—the claim that Prause attributed to Hilton in her April 16 email.

Prause did not point me to any examples of comments in which Hilton claimed she had appeared in pornographic films. But in her sexual harassment complaint, she said he had encouraged a Houston Chronicle reporter to “print that I was in pornography with no evidence” and that the reporter “was able to determine Donald Hilton’s claims were fabricated.”

Prause’s April 16 email to UTHSCSA included hyperlinks and attachments that are not included in Hilton’s defamation lawsuit. I asked her lawyer if I could see those, since they should shed light on the basis for her claims, but have not received a response.

Hilton says Prause is trying to discredit his work through false personal attacks, and in her response to me Prause says the same thing about Hilton:

Many people are uncomfortable with science. However, facts matter. The facts that your readers should know are simple: I study sexual science based on neuroscience and physiology. I was trained in addictions at Harvard University, won numerous academic awards, and believe in open and honest debate and discussion.

I have never received support from, or been involved in, the pornography industry, including attending the AVN awards. I have never made any false reports regarding Dr. Hilton or anyone else, nor have I made false reports about my research or company. The facts and results of my peer-reviewed research speak for themselves; they are not intended to address any system of morality, activism, or religious beliefs.

Dr. Hilton’s lawsuit has no merit nor do his libelous and unfounded assertions regarding me, my character, or my sexuality. He is entitled to his opinions, however he is not entitled to spread complete falsehoods about me.

Hilton’s lawsuit, which was initially filed in the District Court of Bexar County, Texas, but has been moved to federal court because he and Prause live in different states, seeks up to $10 million in actual and punitive damages. It also asks for “a preliminary and permanent injunction preventing Defendant Prause from making additional false statements.” As Volokh notes, such injunctions against future statements are barred as an unconstitutional prior restraint on speech under Texas law, which will continue to apply as the case proceeds in federal court.

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Trump Says US Should Join “Great Currency Manipulation Game” By Devaluing Dollar

President Trump has never been a fan of the strong dollar. And after beating around the bush for months by demanding a 50 bp rate cut and more QE from the Fed, it seems the president is now explicitly calling on the US to artificially weaken the greenback by any means necessary.

In a tweet, Trump blasted China and Europe for playing a ‘big currency manipulation game’ and recommended that the US “MATCH” or risk being “the dummies who sit back and politely watch as other countries continue to play their games.”

Notably, the tweet calling for even more easing followed Trump’s latest tweet celebrating new market highs.

Trump’s warning also comes less than two weeks after Bank of America warned that direct intervention to weaken the dollar would be possible in the not-too-distant future.

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2RSqEeY Tyler Durden

WTI Tumbles After Smaller-Than-Expected Crude Draw

Oil prices are up modestly overnight, after yesterday’s worst post-OPEC reaction since 2014, as API’s notable crude draw sparked optimism for this morning’s official inventory data.

“Clearly, there is no getting away from economic bearishness and cooling demand fundamentals,” PVM Oil Associates Ltd. analyst Stephen Brennock wrote in a report.

“This morning, however, has provided a reprieve from the selling frenzy as those searching for a bullish catalyst pin their hopes on another drawdown in U.S. oil inventories.”

API

  • Crude -5mm (-3mm exp)

  • Cushing +882k (-1.26mm exp)

  • Gasoline -387k (-2.2mm exp)

  • Distillates -1.7mm (+1.0mm exp)

DOE

  • Crude -1.085mm (-3.5mm exp)

  • Cushing +652k (-1.26mm exp)

  • Gasoline -1.583mm (-2.2mm exp)

  • Distillates +1.408mm (+1.0mm exp)

After last week’s massive crude draw (and API’s overnight draw), expectations were for a notable draw from DOE but it disappointed with only a 1.09mm draw (-3.5mm exp).

US crude production has been the talk of the global energy markets this week as OPEC+ desperately try not to admit their impotence and rose modestly last week…

WTI hovered near $57 ahead of the DOE data, but slipped towards the lows of the day after the smaller than expected draw…

Bloomberg Intelligence’s Senior Energy Analyst Vince Piazza concludes:

“OPEC+ maintaining curbs into 2020 doesn’t sway us from our cautious stance on crude prices. We’re more concerned about threats to global economic growth and potentially weaker petroleum demand. While U.S. oil production growth has slowed, in lockstep with our views at the beginning of the year, volume remains resilient at 12 million bpd, 11% over last year.”

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2RUShDZ Tyler Durden

Pennsylvania Opens Up to Workers From Other States

Moving to Pennsylvania? It just got easier to find a new job there.

Gov. Tom Wolf on Tuesday signed a bill into law that requires Pennsylvania recognize occupational licenses issued in other states. Pennsylvania joins Arizona and Montana as the only states to recognize occupational licenses issued in other states. 

In a statement, Wolf said the new law would “improve the occupational licensing process while making the commonwealth a more attractive place for skilled workers and businesses.” Wolf, a Democrat, has made occupational licensing reform a focus of his administration since winning re-election in 2018, and this latest effort cleared both chambers of the Republican-controlled General Assembly with broad bipartisan support. 

The new law instructs the state’s Bureau of Professional and Occupational Affairs to issue licenses to license-holders from other states as long as the requirements are roughly the same as Pennsylvania’s. If the worker’s qualifications don’t appropriately match Pennsylvania’s requirements, the law permits the granting of a temporary license while workers catch up on Pennsylvania-specific requirements. 

Either way, that means workers moving to the state will be able to get a job in a licensed profession and begin working right away, rather than having to spend months or even years re-taking licensing classes and exams. 

That’s a big deal, especially considering that Pennsylvania has 255 different occupational licenses. One out of every five Pennsylvania workers needs an occupational license to do their job legally, according to the governor’s office. 

Those licensing laws impose high costs on the people of Pennsylvania. There isn’t much evidence that requirements like making barbers go through over a thousand hours of training improve public health or the quality of service provided. Instead, these regulations create unnecessary barriers to entry for the profession. This raises prices and reduces economic opportunity, particularly for younger, lower-income, and minority workers. 

According to a 2018 Institute for Justice study, licensing laws cost the state of Pennsylvania $9.4 billion in economic output per year, along with over 88,000 jobs. The state has also been losing population to other states for decades, with a net population loss of 25,000 people in 2018 alone. 

Allowing workers to take licenses from one state to another doesn’t reduce all the problems associated with licensing, but it does help increase mobility in the workforce. The rise in occupational licensing has been linked to an overall decline in worker mobility across state lines, for example, suggesting that licenses prevent workers from taking advantage of opportunities elsewhere.

According to research from economists Morris Kleiner and Janna Johnson at the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, occupational licensing reduces interstate migration by 36 percent within licensed professions. That lack of mobility costs licensed workers between $178 million and $711 million every year, the economists estimate. Not moving to higher-productivity jobs means lower wages, according to the Brookings Institution.

While Pennsylvania’s new licensing portability law naturally draws comparisons to the measure passed earlier this year in Arizona, it’s actually a slightly watered down version of the concept. Arizona’s licensing reciprocity law does not give licensing boards discretion to decide which out-of-state licenses to accept. However, the new Pennsylvania law only recognizes out-of-state licenses if the training requirements they require are “substantially similar” to between training requirements for Pennsylvania licenses and out-of-state ones. This provision allows licensing boards more leeway to not recognize out-of-state licenses if it deems them too lax. 

The new law in Pennsylvania doesn’t fix the problem of overly burdensome licensing laws, but it should blunt one negative impact of those policies. A worker trained as an HVAC technician in New Jersey doesn’t forget those skills when he or she crosses the Delaware River—and Pennsylvania has now joined the few states that have stopped pretending otherwise.

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Pennsylvania Opens Up to Workers From Other States

Moving to Pennsylvania? It just got easier to find a new job there.

Gov. Tom Wolf on Tuesday signed a bill into law that requires Pennsylvania recognize occupational licenses issued in other states. Pennsylvania joins Arizona and Montana as the only states to recognize occupational licenses issued in other states. 

In a statement, Wolf said the new law would “improve the occupational licensing process while making the commonwealth a more attractive place for skilled workers and businesses.” Wolf, a Democrat, has made occupational licensing reform a focus of his administration since winning re-election in 2018, and this latest effort cleared both chambers of the Republican-controlled General Assembly with broad bipartisan support. 

The new law instructs the state’s Bureau of Professional and Occupational Affairs to issue licenses to license-holders from other states as long as the requirements are roughly the same as Pennsylvania’s. If the worker’s qualifications don’t appropriately match Pennsylvania’s requirements, the law permits the granting of a temporary license while workers catch up on Pennsylvania-specific requirements. 

Either way, that means workers moving to the state will be able to get a job in a licensed profession and begin working right away, rather than having to spend months or even years re-taking licensing classes and exams. 

That’s a big deal, especially considering that Pennsylvania has 255 different occupational licenses. One out of every five Pennsylvania workers needs an occupational license to do their job legally, according to the governor’s office. 

Those licensing laws impose high costs on the people of Pennsylvania. There isn’t much evidence that requirements like making barbers go through over a thousand hours of training improve public health or the quality of service provided. Instead, these regulations create unnecessary barriers to entry for the profession. This raises prices and reduces economic opportunity, particularly for younger, lower-income, and minority workers. 

According to a 2018 Institute for Justice study, licensing laws cost the state of Pennsylvania $9.4 billion in economic output per year, along with over 88,000 jobs. The state has also been losing population to other states for decades, with a net population loss of 25,000 people in 2018 alone. 

Allowing workers to take licenses from one state to another doesn’t reduce all the problems associated with licensing, but it does help increase mobility in the workforce. The rise in occupational licensing has been linked to an overall decline in worker mobility across state lines, for example, suggesting that licenses prevent workers from taking advantage of opportunities elsewhere.

According to research from economists Morris Kleiner and Janna Johnson at the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, occupational licensing reduces interstate migration by 36 percent within licensed professions. That lack of mobility costs licensed workers between $178 million and $711 million every year, the economists estimate. Not moving to higher-productivity jobs means lower wages, according to the Brookings Institution.

While Pennsylvania’s new licensing portability law naturally draws comparisons to the measure passed earlier this year in Arizona, it’s actually a slightly watered down version of the concept. Arizona’s licensing reciprocity law does not give licensing boards discretion to decide which out-of-state licenses to accept. However, the new Pennsylvania law only recognizes out-of-state licenses if the training requirements they require are “substantially similar” to between training requirements for Pennsylvania licenses and out-of-state ones. This provision allows licensing boards more leeway to not recognize out-of-state licenses if it deems them too lax. 

The new law in Pennsylvania doesn’t fix the problem of overly burdensome licensing laws, but it should blunt one negative impact of those policies. A worker trained as an HVAC technician in New Jersey doesn’t forget those skills when he or she crosses the Delaware River—and Pennsylvania has now joined the few states that have stopped pretending otherwise.

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Blain: This Is The Biggest Question Facing Lagarde As The ECB’s New Head

Blain’s Morning Porridge, submitted by Bill Blain of Shard Capital

“Our  credibility is deeply stained by these endless meetings that lead to nothing.”

One of the best Pub Games may just have got easier. “Name 5 famous Belgians” is a popular challenge after a couple of pints – the critical point is you are not allowed to name any fictional characters, ruling out any Belgians normal people have heard of. But the appointment of Belgian caretaker prime minister whatshisname to the top job at the European Council (which manages the EU leaders get-togethers). His name is Charles Michel… I suspect we will remember than name as he wants to prove himself a Brexit hardman.

Let’s not kid ourselves that last night’s announcement of the EU top jobs was anything other than a stitched-up bad and hasty compromise. We won’t need to waste time wondering if they were the best candidates. Don’t even try to answer that rhetorical question. What’s important is – will they work? Can the new EU leadership team push through some form of fiscal agreement/union/accommodation to balance the Euro and propel Europe forward? Can they balance all the competing domestic perspectives and present a unified stance?

Christine Lagarde’s appointment as ECB head is the most hopeful of last night’s roles. Let’s be positive – she is a good communicator, a political operator, her perceived lack of monetary policy experience will be countered by some of finest economic minds advising her (and she is clever enough to know that), and she has international clout and credibility. We’ve got to assume she learnt from her time at the IMF (where her association with the Greek debacle and pro-Europe bias was a problem). As a lawyer, like Jerome Powell at the Fed, giving her strengths in advisory and details. She is a French pick – and will be sympathetic to, and understand, Fiscal Solutions to Europe’s growth problem. What’s not to like?

Stories this morning suggest she could encounter pushback from Jens Weidmann at the Bundesbank who had been frontrunner for the job. He is a hawk and straightjacketed in the ECB’s mandate to control inflation – and is not what Europe needs. Europe needs a political ECB head to push through agreement on fiscal policies. Lagarde will face the 25 strong ECB Governing Council to push her agenda and programme – and that’s probably her biggest challenge. Can she impose her leadership over them the way Draghi did? I suspect so. 

The big question facing Lagarde will be how to stimulate Europe. Draghi’s “do-what-ever-it-takes” extraordinary monetary policy worked to stabilise the European debt crisis. It didn’t solve the Euro conundrum – the problem of reconciling strict monetary guidelines and enforced government austerity spending holding back countries trying to restructure to meet German levels of productivity. As a result the Euro was unbalanced. Germany benefited from the Euro while everyone else struggled.

Under Draghi, the ECB’s QE averted ongoing debt crisis, but has not stimulated the economy. Instead its pumped money into financial assets. Lagarde’s challenge will be to meld Fiscal policy into the ECB’s monetary mandate. She is an astute politician and knows when to act. I’m minded to be positive about her appointment. 

(It will also create some interesting openings in Central Bank jobs.. Who will get the IMF job? Canadian Mark Carney at the BOE is said to fancy it. Others think Draghi may be interested as bookend to his career.) 

However, if Lagarde is positive, then handing the European presidency to Ursula von der Layen might have been some Byzantine Plot dreamt up by Nigel Farage. Its already backfired spectacularly against Merkel domestically, and is raising all kinds of questions about her political competence, or how a candidate who wasn’t even on the election slate is now President of the European Commission – so much for democracy. I’m sure Von der Layen is a marvellous person, but the analysts this morning weren’t encouraging. She is described in Anthony Peter’s blog this morning: “domestically she is generally seen as an unimaginative and inoffensive light-weight of the first order and catapulting her to effective command of the Commission as being better for Germany than it is for Brussels.

She inherited a poisoned chalice as defence minister in Germany, but it means she’s already run foul of Donald Trump, and now she’ll be leading trade negotiations as Trump swings his cannons on Europe? Oh dear.. 

Let’s see how this pans out.

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2xvIKcY Tyler Durden