New Law Stops IRS From Stealing People’s Money Simply Because It Deems Their Bank Deposits Suspiciously Small

Yesterday Donald Trump signed a law that forbids the IRS to seize the bank accounts of business owners based on nothing more than the allegation that they “structured” their deposits or withdrawals to evade federal reporting requirements. That kind of odious money grab—which, like other forms of civil forfeiture, did not require criminal charges, let alone a conviction—provoked bipartisan outrage in Congress after it was publicized by the Institute for Justice, the libertarian public interest law firm.

Since 1970 the humorously named Bank Secrecy Act has required financial institutions to report transactions involving $10,000 or more to the Treasury Department, because such large sums of cash are obviously suspicious. You know what else is suspicious? Transactions involving less than $10,000, because they suggest an attempt to evade the government’s reporting requirement, which has been a federal crime, known as “structuring,” since 1986.

Suspicion of structuring was the sole justification when the IRS seized $60,000 from Maryland dairy farmer Randy Sowers in 2012, $446,000 from Long Island candy and snack wholesaler Jeffrey Hirsch that same year, $33,000 from Iowa restaurateur Carole Hinders in 2013, and $107,000 from North Carolina convenience store owner Lyndon McLellan in 2014. The negative publicity generated by stories like those led the IRS to announce in 2014 that it would no longer pursue forfeiture in cases where there was no evidence of illegal activity beyond structuring itself. The Justice Department unveiled similar restrictions in 2015.

Section 1201 of the Taxpayer First Act, the bill that Trump signed yesterday, codifies the shift in IRS policy, saying, “Property may only be seized by the Internal Revenue Service” in structuring cases “if the property to be seized was derived from an illegal source or the funds were structured for the purpose of concealing the violation of a criminal law or regulation other than” structuring. The law also requires that the IRS notify the owner within 30 days of a seizure and mandates a hearing to consider whether there was probable cause for the seizure within 30 days of the owner’s request.

“Previously,” the Institute for Justice notes, “property owners targeted for structuring had to wait months or even years to present their case to a judge.” Sowers and Hirsch, both I.J. clients, “ultimately recovered their wrongfully taken money, but only after years of legal proceedings and high-profile media coverage.”

I.J. senior attorney Darpana Sheth, who heads the organization’s National Initiative to End Forfeiture Abuse, welcomed the demise of this particularly egregious kind of legalized theft. “Innocent entrepreneurs will no longer have to fear forfeiting their cash to the IRS, simply over how they handled their money,” Sheth said in a press release. “Seizing for structuring was one of the most abusive forms of civil forfeiture, and we’re glad to see it go.”

The restrictions in the new law do not apply to the Justice Department. I.J. says a campaign it organized resulted in “464 petitions from owners seeking to recover their money that had been seized for structuring.” Of the 208 petitions relating to forfeitures pursued by the IRS, the agency granted “roughly 84 percent and returned over $9.9 million to property owners.” Of the 256 petitions related to cases involving the DOJ, the IRS recommended that the department grant 194. But the DOJ had accepted just 41 petitions, or 21 percent, “and refused to return more than $22.2 million as of last summer.”

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New Law Stops IRS From Stealing People’s Money Simply Because It Deems Their Bank Deposits Suspiciously Small

Yesterday Donald Trump signed a law that forbids the IRS to seize the bank accounts of business owners based on nothing more than the allegation that they “structured” their deposits or withdrawals to evade federal reporting requirements. That kind of odious money grab—which, like other forms of civil forfeiture, did not require criminal charges, let alone a conviction—provoked bipartisan outrage in Congress after it was publicized by the Institute for Justice, the libertarian public interest law firm.

Since 1970 the humorously named Bank Secrecy Act has required financial institutions to report transactions involving $10,000 or more to the Treasury Department, because such large sums of cash are obviously suspicious. You know what else is suspicious? Transactions involving less than $10,000, because they suggest an attempt to evade the government’s reporting requirement, which has been a federal crime, known as “structuring,” since 1986.

Suspicion of structuring was the sole justification when the IRS seized $60,000 from Maryland dairy farmer Randy Sowers in 2012, $446,000 from Long Island candy and snack wholesaler Jeffrey Hirsch that same year, $33,000 from Iowa restaurateur Carole Hinders in 2013, and $107,000 from North Carolina convenience store owner Lyndon McLellan in 2014. The negative publicity generated by stories like those led the IRS to announce in 2014 that it would no longer pursue forfeiture in cases where there was no evidence of illegal activity beyond structuring itself. The Justice Department unveiled similar restrictions in 2015.

Section 1201 of the Taxpayer First Act, the bill that Trump signed yesterday, codifies the shift in IRS policy, saying, “Property may only be seized by the Internal Revenue Service” in structuring cases “if the property to be seized was derived from an illegal source or the funds were structured for the purpose of concealing the violation of a criminal law or regulation other than” structuring. The law also requires that the IRS notify the owner within 30 days of a seizure and mandates a hearing to consider whether there was probable cause for the seizure within 30 days of the owner’s request.

“Previously,” the Institute for Justice notes, “property owners targeted for structuring had to wait months or even years to present their case to a judge.” Sowers and Hirsch, both I.J. clients, “ultimately recovered their wrongfully taken money, but only after years of legal proceedings and high-profile media coverage.”

I.J. senior attorney Darpana Sheth, who heads the organization’s National Initiative to End Forfeiture Abuse, welcomed the demise of this particularly egregious kind of legalized theft. “Innocent entrepreneurs will no longer have to fear forfeiting their cash to the IRS, simply over how they handled their money,” Sheth said in a press release. “Seizing for structuring was one of the most abusive forms of civil forfeiture, and we’re glad to see it go.”

The restrictions in the new law do not apply to the Justice Department. I.J. says a campaign it organized resulted in “464 petitions from owners seeking to recover their money that had been seized for structuring.” Of the 208 petitions relating to forfeitures pursued by the IRS, the agency granted “roughly 84 percent and returned over $9.9 million to property owners.” Of the 256 petitions related to cases involving the DOJ, the IRS recommended that the department grant 194. But the DOJ had accepted just 41 petitions, or 21 percent, “and refused to return more than $22.2 million as of last summer.”

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Gold Soars Most In 8 Months As Copper & Crude Collapse

Stocks and bond yields sink on a trade truce, oil tanks on an OPEC deal, and AUD spikes on a RBA rate cut…

 

Chinese stocks went nowhere overnight…

 

European markets slipped early on the tariff headlines but recovered by their close…

 

Major decoupling between Small Caps and Trannies and the rest of the market today (the latter barely unchanged as the former tank). Nasdaq outperformed as markets rallied in the last hour mysteriously just as they did yesterday…

 

As the short-squeeze ammo appears to have run out…

 

Any equity gains were dominated by a bid for defensives…

 

Stocks and Bond yields decoupled…

 

Treasury yields tanked today leaving all but 2Y now lower since the hype of the trade-truce…

 

10Y Yields tumbled back below 2.00% again…and held there…

 

Pushing 10Y Yields to the lowest close since Nov 2016…

 

 

Market expectations for July remain at 80% for 25bps cut and 20% for 50bps cut…

 

 

 

Stocks decoupled from FX carry today…

 

Cryptos staged a big recovery today after another ugly night…

 

Bitcoin ripped back above $10,000 after toying with it for 24 hours (up $1200 from today’s lows)…

 

PMs outperformed notably as copper and crude extended their losses…

 

Gold surged back above $1400, erasing the trade-truce losses…Gold’s best day since Oct 2018 (on the heels of Lagarde as ECB head?)

 

While silver rallied on the day, it continues to underperform…

 

Stocks and oil prices decoupled today…

 

WTI dumped on the day, despite OPEC+ production cut agreements…

 

WTI tested the trendline and failed…

 

Copper and Stocks decoupled

 

Finally, the jaws of death widen further…

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Zimbabwe Stops Issuing Passports As Cash Shortage Hits Crisis Levels

According to Zimbabwe’s President Emmerson Mnangagwa, the reintroduction of the Zimbabwean dollar (which was officially abandoned a decade ago), the banning of the use of other international currencies, and the resulting hyperinflation (analysts are already forecasting a 100% inflation rate for 2019) are simply important steps to “restoring normalcy to our economy.”

But as anybody who has lived in, or visited, Zimbabwe over the past couple of decades, “normal” isn’t exactly a high bar. Considering that, under ex-leader Robert Mugabe, the Zim dollar once depreciated to 35 quadrillion per $1 (transforming the wheelbarrow into an essential tool for facilitating routine, every-day transactions like buying groceries), we’d think Zimbabweans are looking for something different, rather than a return to the country’s insanely dysfunctional status quo.

Wheel

One economist last week tagged Zimbabwe’s present real rate of inflation at nearly 500%, as Zimbabwe’s economy slides back into crisis and its currency rapidly depreciates against the dollar.

Zim

Of course, Mnangagwa’s decision to revive the hated Zim dollar might be more pragmatic than it first appears: After all, South Africa banks had largely cut Zim off from the country’s most stable supply of American dollars (the de facto currency of choice for Zimbabweans hoping to protect their wealth), so Mnangagwa’s decision to ‘ban’ the greenback might be the political equivalent of shouting ‘you can’t fire me because I quit!’ at a former employer.

But regardless of the government’s motives, this doesn’t change the fact that Zimbabweans have been struggling with shortages of cash, fuel and electricity for months. And now, the country’s ‘everything shortage’ is impacting the hopes and dreams of any Zimbabwean who still harbors hopes of leaving Zimbabwe.

Zim

That’s right: Zimbabwe’s government is so broke, the company that prints its passports is refusing to supply any new booklets until the government has taken care of its debts.

Here’s more from Bloomberg:

Now, even passports are almost impossible to get.

Tendai Mpofu applied for new passports for his sons more than two months ago. Their current ones expire this month, just when they’re due to travel to South Africa for a school sports event. It may be a long wait before they get new documents.

With inflation at almost 100% and an acute lack of foreign currency, Zimbabwe is facing its worst economic crisis in more than a decade. While President Emmerson Mnangagwa has said that the passport company is refusing to print anything until the government has cleared its debts, others say Zimbabwe is simply too broke to import the ink and paper needed.

And it’s not only passports that are in short supply: The government is also running out of the cheap plastic it uses to print ID cards.

An official at the passport office said the situation is “dire” and passports were only being issued for emergencies. Identity cards are also hard to come by – metal cards were replaced with plastic ones but now plastic is in short supply.

No need to panic, though – the government has the (admittedly dire) situation under control.

Home Affairs Minister Cain Mathema told the state-run Herald newspaper recently that things will improve and that the government was “working on it.”

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Two-Thirds Of College Grads Regret Their Diploma, Costs And Major

Submitted by Andrew Malcolm at Hot Air

For decades now it’s been a sellers’ market for American universities. Conventional wisdom held that the most important way to succeed in life was to get a college diploma, no matter the cost. Perhaps you’ve noticed university tuitions going up and up. And up. Inexorably.

And so has the debt incurred by their students and those students’ parents. It now totals about $1.6 trillion.

This being another tedious presidential election season, such a massive debt burden has attracted the attention of feeding politicians seeking to reap votes from younger Americans tasked with repaying the loans they signed up for.

As we wrote here earlier this week, Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, Julian Castro and a growing list of the growing field of candidates have announced various plans to make public school tuitions free and to forgive these massive debts using — you guessed it — new taxes on someone else, namely the well-to-do.

Now comes a new wrinkle in these schemes and the universities’ hopes of continuing to reap huge tuition increases.

A new poll of nearly a quarter-million Americans has found fully two-thirds of them have buyer’s remorse about their diploma, their major and the higher education experience in general. How much longer do you think folks are going to keep paying such fees that produce such dissatisfaction and unhappiness?

Not surprisingly perhaps, the new survey found the top regret was incurring immense debts for that higher education, a debt whose payments run on for many years, causing postponed marriages and families. An estimated 70 percent of college graduates this year finished school with loans to repay averaging $33,000.

Even older baby boomers are incurring college debts as they return to school for training in new areas not affected by automation and other labor-saving methods. The survey by PayScale found that even Americans over age 62 had some $86 billion in unpaid debts, theirs or their childrens’.

The second largest graduate regret was their choice of college majors. Sen. Marco Rubio has noted in speeches that the occupational demand for Greek philosophers has not been good for about 2,000 years.

Three-quarters of humanities graduates expressed regrets over their choice of study areas, tied to their difficulty finding employment in those areas at higher paying jobs enabling them to pay down the debt.

Most satisfied were majors in math, science, tech and especially engineering. More than a third of computer science grads and four-in-ten engineering grads had no regrets about their area choice of studies.

Interestingly though, teachers expressed the least regrets over their career choices, second least to engineers, despite the chronically low pay of such educators.

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Boeing Abandons Families Of 737 Max Crash Victims: Report

Several families of the nearly 350 people who died in two Boeing 737 Max crashes say they haven’t received so much as a letter of condolence from the planemaker, according to Business Insider

The parents of a woman killed on one of the flights told Business Insider they had received “no condolences” and “no direct communication” from Boeing despite numerous public apologies by the plane maker and said Boeing CEO Dennis Muilenburg “talks to other people but not us, the victims’ families.”

Nadia Milleron and Michael Stumo lost their 24-year-old daughter, Samya Stumo, when the Boeing 737 Max 8 jet operated by Ethiopian Airlines crashed in March, killing all 157 people on board. –Business Insider

And while we’re guessing the Boeing legal department may have been involved in the decision not to directly contact the families of inevitable (and current) plaintiffs as the likely cause of the crashes became more clear, attorneys representing over 50 families of those killed told Business Insider that their clients were treated similarly. 

Miami-based aviation attorney Steve Marks said that Boeing’s response was not “unusual” from manufacturers, however the company’s reaction was “worse” than a typical response. 

Nadia Milleron, whose daughter was killed in the Ethiopian Airlines crash of a Boeing 737 Max, at a press conference announcing a wrongful-death suit against Boeing in April. (REUTERS/Kamil Krzaczynski)

According to Marks, Boeing “came out really quickly after the second tragedy, and said: ‘We own it, it’s our problem’,” yet “has since backed those comments off, in many different ways, which I think has only inflamed the situation, as far as the families are concerned.” 

Aviation attorney Mike Danko similarly told Business Insider that it’s “not unusual” for a manufacturer not to apologize or offer support following fatal plane crashes, noting the company’s public apologies.

Boeing has repeatedly publicly apologized for the crashes. Its CEO, Dennis Muilenburg, first apologized in a Boeing video in April, three weeks after the second crash. In the video, he said that the company was “sorry for the lives lost” and that the “tragedies continue to weigh heavily on our hearts and mind.” –Business Insider

In May, Muilenburg apologized publicly, saying the company was “sorry for the loss of lives in both accidents,” and “sorry for the impact to the families and loves ones that are behind.” 

That said, the 737 Max situation is unique in that the crashes are suspected to have been caused by a known flaw in the plane’s anti-stall system which had been raised by pilots, while over 400 pilots are now in a class-action lawsuit against the company, accusing Boeing of an unprecedented cover-up” of “known design flaws.” 

Muilenburg admitted at the Paris Air Show in June that Boeing had “made a mistake” in handling the anti-stall system, and that the company’s communication was “not acceptable.” 

Kenyans mourning family members and friends who died in the Ethiopian Airlines Flight 302 crash. (REUTERS/Baz Ratner)

Not good enough, say the families. 

Milleron and Stumo told Business Insider that Muilenburg “never apologized for killing our daughter.”

Stumo said Boeing “put a camera in Muilenburg’s face,” referring to his video apology in April.

A true apology is when you sit across the table together and exchange sentiment — at the very least.”

Milleron said the apology needed to say: “I did this wrong thing to you and I am sorry. I regret this specific wrong that I did to you.”

 

“That’s an actual apology,” she said. “If they just say they are sorry to a camera, not to the actual persons that they’ve harmed, that is not an apology at all.

“I don’t understand how he could possibly think so, and I don’t think the American people see that as an actual apology.”  –Business Insider

According to Danko, the aviation attorney, Boeing could have reached out and said something as simple as “We’re so sorry for what happened and for the unspeakable loss you’ve experienced. We haven’t yet gotten to the bottom of what happened but are committed to doing so. We want to make sure that no one else has to go through what you’re going through now. We will not rest and our plane will not fly again until we’re 100% convinced of that.” 

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Months After Failed Coup, Venezuelans Losing Patience With Guaido

Authored by Jason Ditz via AntiWar.com,

In late April, Juan Guaido launched an attempted coup in Venezuela, one which the US figured would be an easy success to sweep him into power after months of insisting he was the legitimate ruler. As July starts, Guaido seems no closer to power than ever.

New reports suggest that some Venezuelans, even those who supported Guaido, are growing impatient with the whole regime change idea, and his support is starting to dry up as it becomes increasingly apparent that Maduro will retain power.

“We’re on track but it’s the wrong track,” said Rafael Narvaez, a taxi driver in the western coastal city of Punto Fijo.

“I thought that finally the moment had come to recover our country,” Narvaez, 43, said. “Now I’m disappointed.”

The US-backed coup idea didn’t work, and that was effectively the only real plan they had. Unilaterally declaring regime change was clearly never going to work, and since Guaido wasn’t even running for president in the last election, failing to get the military to overturn the vote was really his last major shot.

Yon Goicoechea, a member of Guaido’s policy team, acknowledged there was “fatigue” among Venezuelans.

“We have to fight against demobilization and despair,” he said. “We Venezuelans have to keep consistent in our support for Guaido and be patient.”

The Venezuelan public is catching up to something President Trump apparently figured out awhile ago, as indications are that he was already getting bored of the Venezuela issue because of the lack of progress

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Goldman: This Is The Only Reason Why There Is A “Bull Market In Almost Everything”

Earlier today, we reported that the S&P 500 posted the best June return (+6.9%) since 1955, with all 38 major assets tracked by Deutsche Bank ending the month with a positive total return. If one looks at monthly data back to the start of 2007, “this has only ever happened once before” according to Deutsche Bank’s Craig Nicol. Amazingly, that was back in January of this year, just after Steven Mnuchin called the Plunge Protection Team. In other words, January and June of this year are the only months in the last 150 which have seen all assets post a positive total return.

Such performance is, for lack of a better word, unprecedented.

In a follow up note, Goldman picks up on this observations with the bank’s Alessio Rizzi writing that much in contrast to last year, most of the assets delivered positive performance YTD.

Having said that, with growth data softening again in May, risky assets have been range-bound since. The equity correction in May has been relatively small and followed by a sharp recovery in June supported by more dovish central banks and fading trade tensions concerns.

So what has been behind this unprecedented move higher in risky, safe haven and all other assets?

Take a wild guess…. and you’re probably right.

As Goldman answer, since June, there has been a second dovish wave with increased  expectations for more ECB easing post Draghi’s Sintra speech and the June FOMC meeting. As a result, Goldman’s proprietary indicators shows that “monetary policy” remains the main driver of risk appetite and expectations are now very bullish.

The same was true in 1H 2016 but after the Brexit shock on June 23, ‘global growth’ expectations picked up, further boosted by Trump being elected in 3Q, which drove a more traditional ‘risk on’ pattern with equities rallying and bonds selling off.

And here it is again, for the cheap seats: “while global growth has softened YTD, the boost from easier monetary policy has driven more appetite both for risky and ‘safe’ assets. Market expectations have turned much more dovish since the end of 2018.”

Some more color:

… the market is now pricing c.3 cuts and similarly investors have priced further ECB easing. As a result, both equities and  bonds rallied and had one their best starts of the year since the 80s. This is not unusual after dovish monetary policy shifts, e.g. when the Fed starts cutting interest rates; in fact 1989, 1995 and 1998 were strong years for equity and bonds.

So with the Fed, and only the Fed, the driver of most if not all market upside in 2019 (as a reminder, in June PE multiple expansion – i.e., rate expectations – and not earnings were responsible for 90% of the upside), here are some of the consequences:

Due to the weak growth, the leadership within risky assets has been defensive – low vol stocks, defensive sectors and growth stocks outperformed. US low vol stocks had their best start in the last 30 years and a 6-month return similar that post the GFC trough. Investors have been reluctant in adding exposure to riskier assets and fund flows into equity have been quite negative, comparable to previous bear markets.

Additionally, the continued lack of positive growth news (and the preponderance of negative news) during the equity rally YTD also helps explain the growing gap between equity and bond yields – the US equity risk premium has increased alongside the de-rating of ‘global growth’ expectations as investors remain relatively cautious. The same has been true across regions and in those markets with increased secular stagnation concerns, such as Europe, where the de-rating of equities relative to bonds has been even larger.

The same investor cautiousness shows in fund flows – in the last 6 months, US equity fund flows have been the most negative since the global financial crisis, while there have been large inflows into money market funds and more recently credit and government bond funds due to the more carry-friendly backdrop.

Finally, there is a large gap between risk appetite in ‘risky’ and ‘safe assets’ – Goldman’s aggregate index for ‘risky assets’ is close to neutral again while the continued strong rally of global bonds and safe havens such as Gold and the Yen signal very low risk appetite. The same gap exists between global equities, with the S&P 500 at all-time highs and 10-year bond yields heading to all-time lows. This, according to Goldman, is common in ‘bad news is good news’ regimes, when monetary policy drives a strong search for yield – the same was the case in 1H2016, when easier monetary policy stabilized markets.

So if not growth and not profits, and only the Fed is pushing stocks to new all time highs (on a string), how much longer can this farce of a market continue to levitate? The truth? Nobody knows of course, but as even Goldman now admits, “eventually growth has to take over as the main a driver to drive a procyclical rotation across and within assets.”

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OPEC’s Future Looks Bleak As It Extends Deal

Authored by Cyril Widdershoven via OilPrice.com,

OPEC and its partners have decided to roll over the existing production cut agreement for another 9 months. After weeks of deliberations, infighting, global pressure and media hype, OPEC and Russia have confirmed the global oil market still needs support. OPEC officials stated the latter to the press, repeating Russian President Putin’s and Saudi Minister of Energy Khalid Al Falih’s former statements. Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Saturday that he had agreed with Saudi Arabia to extend existing output cuts of 1.2 million barrels per day, or 1.2% of global demand, until December 2019 or March 2020.

Fears about a possible US-China Trade War, resulting in lower global economic growth, and the continued growth of US shale output has put oil prices under pressure, especially after several unexpected inventory builds earlier this year. The geopolitical instability in the Persian Gulf, a looming military confrontation in the East Mediterranean and sanctions on Iran, Venezuela and even Russia, did nothing to quell the negative price spiral. Emotions were ruling, not facts. Oil prices, however, now seem to get some space to rally, as China and the U.S. have agreed to renegotiate a trade deal, demand still appears to be growing, and US storage volumes have shown signs of reversing. Oil bulls have regained a bit of hope, but financial analysts are still warning for a possible negative price correction, based on the still unresolved China-US situation. Strangely enough the same analysts are not incorporating possible negative repercussions from the ongoing situation in the strait of Hormuz, a looming conflict in Libya and the still relatively strong economy. 

At the same time, optimism within OPEC itself is waning, as severe rifts in the cartel have occurred in preparation to this week’s OPEC Vienna meeting. Iran and Venezuela are increasingly putting their foot down, as they claim that the rest of OPEC, especially Saudi Arabia and the UAE, are taking advantage of the US sanctions. The last weeks the Kingdom, but also the UAE, have signed major deals with China, Japan and South Korea to lock-in future demand in these countries. The Iranian sanctions, even if they have not brought exports to zero as US president Trump likes to claim, have been a boon for other OPEC producers, filling in the gaps left by Tehran in Asia and Europe. Iran’s geopolitical supporter no. 1 Russia also has taken advantage of the Iranian predicament.

This situation has stirred up anger in Tehran and Caracas. In contrast to official statements made by the separate Arab OPEC countries, all have taken the opportunity to expand market share. Iran will have a hard time to regain its position. At the same time, Venezuela is confronted by the same developments, leaving the heavy-oil producer no chance to regain its former glory for a very long time. 

At present, Iran does not have a lot of instruments to counter the Saudi-UAE-Russian actions. Blocked by US sanctions, no economic options are available to the Iranian regime. Still, Tehran has been able to deliver a major blow the last hours. Without leaving the cartel, Iran has openly defied the growing willingness inside of OPEC and Russia to formalize the ongoing OPEC+ cooperation.

In a surprise remark to the press, Iran’s oil minister Bijan Zanganeh said that he will veto OPEC’s long-mooted charter intended to formalize its oil market coordination with Russia and nine other non-OPEC partners. The latter means not only a blockade of Saudi-UAE dreams to incorporate Russia officially, but it also is a slap in the face of Russian president Vladimir Putin and Russia’s Energy Minister Novak. The two Russians have been eager to formalize the OPEC+ deal, supported on the Saudi side by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. The formalization seems to have been one of the discussion points between Putin and MBS at the G20 in Osaka, Japan. The Iranian threat also will complicate the OPEC+ meeting, which is set for Tuesday, after the official OPEC meeting.

The Iranian move is almost a rehearsal of the 2007 Riyadh meeting, when Tehran and Caracas blew up the 2nd OPEC Heads of State Meeting. By supporting an OPEC production agreement, but blocking a formal participation of Russia, Tehran keeps its position in balance. If the Saudi-Russian cooperation would be formalized and included under the OPEC umbrella, Tehran fears to be pushed out of the power centers. Officially Iran wants to block the OPEC+ formalization due to Saudi-UAE support for US Iran sanctions, but Tehran wants to be in power when deals are made between OPEC and Russia. With a formalization of the OPEC+ situation, the Riyadh-Moscow-Abu Dhabi trilateral becomes the decision making center without interference of others.  Tehran fears a so-called unilateralism by OPEC+ (Moscow/Riyadh). Iranian Oil Minister Zanganeh reiterated that he fears that OPEC+ could mean the end of the current Middle East led oil producers group. With the incorporation of Russia the power center would clearly move to Riyadh-Moscow.

Looking back at today, a production cut agreement has been reached, and the official statements will follow after the OPEC+ meeting. Brent and WTI prices are expected to inch higher the next couple of days. An internal power struggle, as some expect, inside of OPEC, however, could blow up the current stability with a big bang. An open battle between Tehran and Riyadh, combined with increased military and proxy actions in the Persian Gulf, could be the last drop in the bucket.

Regional military actions against Iran, or more worrying Iranian proxies in Iraq, could effectively reshape the supply situation in crude markets. No reason at present suggests that oil bears can lean back. Global crude supply is more in danger than financial analysts are recognizing. The Iran situation could easily involve Iraq or trade routes at the same time.

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US Navy Wants To Mount Hypersonic Missile On Combat Ships 

Hypersonic weapons travel at five times the speed of sound and are designed to hit any target in the world in about an hour. Russia and China have been leading the charge into the development and deployment of this next-generation weapon system.

The head of US Naval Sea Systems Command, Vice Adm. Thomas Moore, told an audience last month that Arleigh Burke-class destroyers could be getting a new launcher that would be designed for hypersonic weapons.

“Vertical launch system has been a real game changer for us. We can shoot any number of things out of those launchers,” Moore said.

“We’ll probably change those out and upgrade them for prompt strike weapons down the road.”

Allowing launchers to fire hypersonic missiles on destroyers would considerably increase the effectiveness of the Navy’s strike capabilities. Current weapons on these vessels include Tomahawk Land Attack Missile, is a subsonic missile that can easily be defeated by Russia and China.

There are 66 Arleigh Burke-class destroyers in service with the Navy. In the last 8 to 12 months, the Navy has ramped up its freedom of navigation missions with these ships across the South China Sea, sometimes 12 nautical miles away from China’s militarized islands.

Thomas Callender, a retired submarine officer and analyst with the Heritage Foundation, said the Pentagon had spurred programs to field hypersonic weapons that can strike Russia and China. These weapons would likely be placed on submarines first, then on surface ships.

“They’re looking at putting hypersonics on submarines first because where you can get access,” Callender said. “You can potentially then put them on surface ships as an added capability for them, but the submarines would be the priority for access and the ranges you can achieve.”

The Navy has begun sea trials of the next-generation of guided missile destroyers, called USS Zumwalt (DDG-1000), will likely replace the destroyers in the next five to ten years and has larger missile tubes that could fire hypersonic missiles, former Surface Warfare Director Rear Adm. Ron Boxall told Defense News last year.

Boxall said larger missile tubes allow more missiles to be stored into each cell, but can also be used to store larger hypersonic weapons.

“We are going to need, we expect, space for longer-range missiles,” he said. They are going to be bigger. So the idea that you could make a bigger cell, even if you don’t use it for one big missile, you could use it for multiple missiles — quad-pack, eight-pack, whatever.”

The Navy is working with the Army to develop a booster for hypersonic missiles, and the Army teamed up with the Navy and Air Force to build a hypersonic glider that can outmaneuver the world’s most advanced missile defense shields.

China has had several successful hypersonic missile tests in the last 12-months.

Russia announced the deployment of its Kinzhal hypersonic missile in May.

A December 2018 US Government Accountability Office (GAO) report warned that the current ballistic missile defense system in the US is powerless against hypersonic missiles from Russia and China.

US Air Force Lt. Gen. Samuel Greaves, director of the Missile Defense Agency, said last year that he supports Undersecretary of Defense for Research and Engineering Michael Griffin’s push to develop space-based sensors that would defend the nation from hypersonic attacks by America’s adversaries.

“The hypersonic threat is real, it is not imagination,” Lt. Gen. Greaves explained last summer at the Capitol Hill Club.

Griffin warned that the US could be falling behind in hypersonic arms race.

“In the last year, China has tested more hypersonic weapons than we have in a decade. We’ve got to fix that.”

The newest indication from the US Navy is that hypersonic missiles could be deployed on destroyers and submarines in the early 2020s to counter Russia and China.

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/307LUAc Tyler Durden