Small Cap Stocks: Time To Get Your Rally Caps On?

Small cap stocks tend to offer a bit more risk and reward. That equates to higher beta, which in turn tends to mean stronger returns when the broader market is healthy and weaker returns when the broader market is in the doldrums.

So where are we now?  Likely at an important juncture.

Small cap stocks as measured by the Russell 2000 (INDEXRUSSELL:RUT) and micro cap stocks as measured by the iShares Micro Cap ETF (NYSEARCA:IWC) are testing important support levels. Both indices rallied higher in August/September, breaking out above an 8-month trading range.

This article was originally for Seeitmarket.com. To see rest of the support points that small and micro caps are testing- SEE HERE


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“Foundation For A Rebound?” – Gold Jumps Above Key Technical Level On Heavy Volume

The last 3 days have been 'nosiy' in precious metals markets with gold swinging from the best day in 5 months to the worst day in 4 months and now to another high volume surge, breaking the barbarous relic back its 100-day moving-average…

It sems the 100DMA is a key level with heavy volume being used to push gold futures around it.

UBS asks "Is gold establishing a foundation for a rebound?"

Gold longs rebuild while shorts continue to hesitate

Gold is holding reasonably well near the highs of the range established in the past couple of months. A few macro factors have been supportive of late: the pullback in the dollar, a pause in the rise in US nominal and real rates particularly on the long end, consolidation in equities, and political and fiscal uncertainty in the US. Latest political headlines out of Europe are probably helping at the margins, although currency moves could complicate the impact. Stepping back from near-term developments, it's worth noting that the gold market's correction and subsequent consolidation has generally been orderly. The relatively measured unwinding of positions on Comex from the year's highs reached in September is a reflection of this. Latest CFTC data shows that gold net long positions have been tentatively rebuilding over the past couple of weeks; at 22.33moz, market net length looks relatively lean around 60% of the all-time high, albeit still higher than the 12-month average around 17 moz. The recent build in net positioning was mainly due to gains in gross longs. Although gold shorts increased for the first time in four weeks as of November  14, volumes were very modest.

Gold resilience helps position the market for a rebound up ahead

A combination of resilient longs and hesitant shorts has helped gold form a decent base and enabled prices to climb above some support levels, improving the overall technical picture. As we have previously noted, we think gold's resilience is in large part due to lingering uncertainty; although macro risks in general are perceived to be lower, there is an acknowledgment that known unknowns and unknown unknowns continue to lurk. Additionally, some seasonal demand is likely also keep gold supported. Bits and pieces of interest are evident out of China, although there seems to be no urgency to stock up for the Lunar New Year holidays which will occur later in February this time around. Market participants have also indicated a preference to hold off until after the FOMC December meeting is out of the way. We think gold's performance of late and the prospect for further seasonal demand to kick in – albeit with unexceptional volumes – should put gold in a reasonably healthy position for a rebound above $1300 towards the year-end through to early 2018.

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Existing Home Sales Drop Year-Over-Year For 2nd Straight Month – First Time Since 2014

Following September's positive housing data rebound, October data is starting well with existing home sales surging 2.0% MoM (better than expected 0.2%) to 5.48mm SAAR, as US existing home sales inventory tumbled 10.4% YoY, to 1.8 months, the lowest since 1999.

Sales of previously owned U.S. homes rose to a four-month high, indicating demand was firming at the start of the quarter as the impact from hurricanes faded, according to a National Association of Realtors report released Tuesday.

 

However, this is the second straight YoY sales decline, first back-to-back months since 2014…

The median sales price increased 5.5% YoY to $247,000.

Bloomberg reports that Houston and several areas of Florida saw gains when compared with a year earlier, while Miami is still showing some softness, according to NAR.

As in the past, economic activity including in the housing industry typically bounces back after major storms as rebuilding and repair work gets under way.

Another possible headwind comes from tax legislation being advanced in Congress, which the Realtors association strenuously opposes.

The group said last week that the plans debated by lawmakers would “overwhelmingly remove the tax incentive to purchase and own a home in America,” and economists surveyed by Bloomberg said the House bill would reduce demand from homebuyers.

“The momentum appears to be good,” Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist, said at a press briefing accompanying the report. The hurricane impact was “more modest” than anticipated in October and activity is “quickly bouncing back.”

The tax plan could be a “major wild-card disrupter to the housing recovery,” he said. Even so, he sees another “respectable year in 2018,” provided any tax changes don’t set back demand.

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Peso, Loonie Spike On Positive NAFTA News

With NAFTA negotiations currently taking place, and NAFTA currencies very sensitive to every headline, both the Peso and Loonie suddenly spiked on a Bloomberg headline that suggests that talks just may be progessing in a favorable fashion:

  • NAFTA DEAL NEAR ON TELECOM, ENERGY, E-COMMERCE:MEX BUSINESS REP

Some additional color from Bloomberg:

Mexico sees the nations close to finishing work on telecom, energy, and digital commerce chapters in the fifth round of negotiations ending today, but needs Canada and the U.S. to also sign on, Juan Pablo Castanon, head of Mexico’s business chamber known as CCE, says in an interview with Radio Formula. 

 

“There are chapters that can be closed and are very close” Castanon says, adding that “We need to keep going topic by topic.”

 

Business representatives trying to convince U.S. to accept agreement on areas where there’s consensus and leave the more difficult topics for later so that solutions can be found

Negotiators have been advancing on technical work on various topics despite presence of controversial proposals in other areas.

 

Mexico is ready to close what can be closed.

In response, USDMXN has charged lower on the headline, as any whiff of Nafta being saved sends both MXN and CAD surging. USDMXN is now at 18.8625 and USDCAD is at 1.275.

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“It’s A Designed Cover-Up” – Powerful Democratic Congressman John Conyers Sexually Harassed Staffers

Last week, we reported how Congress’s Office of Compliance paid out $17 million for 264 settlements with federal employees over 20 years for various violations, including sexual harassment – information that was brought to light by California Rep. Jackie Speiers, who claimed that two men with a history of sexual harassment continued to serve in the House – one of whom was a Republican and one a Democrat.

Now, thanks to Buzzfeed News, the mystery Democrat has been identified as Michigan Rep. John Conyers, the ranking member on the powerful House Judiciary Committee and the longest-serving member of the House of Representatives. In 2014, a former Conyers staffer filed a complaint claiming she was fired for refusing his sexual advances, and that she had been subsequently blackballed from working with Congress.

The woman received a $30,000 settlement, which was paid out of Conyers’s taxpayer-funded office budget.

The woman who settled with Conyers launched the complaint with the Office of Compliance in 2014, alleging she was fired for refusing his sexual advances, and ended up facing a daunting process that ended with a confidentiality agreement in exchange for a settlement of more than $27,000. Her settlement, however, came from Conyers’ office budget rather than the designated fund for settlements.

 

Congress has no human resources department. Instead, congressional employees have 180 days to report a sexual harassment incident to the Office of Compliance, which then leads to a lengthy process that involves counseling and mediation, and requires the signing of a confidentiality agreement before a complaint can go forward.

 

After this an employee can choose to take the matter to federal district court, but another avenue is available: an administrative hearing, after which a negotiation and settlement may follow.

A law clerk who represented the woman, who was not named by Buzzfeed and has never come forward with her story, said the settlement process was like “being abused twice” for the poor woman.  In the settlement papers, other staffers in Conyers’ office discuss acting as couriers who transported women with who Conyers was allegedly having affairs.

The process was “disgusting,” said Matthew Peterson, who worked as a law clerk representing the complainant, and who listed as a signatory to some of the documents.

 

“It is a designed cover-up,” said Peterson, who declined to discuss details of the case but agreed to characterize it in general terms. “You feel like they were betrayed by their government just for coming forward. It’s like being abused twice."

 

Other lawyers named as representing the accuser could not be reached for comment. The Office of Compliance did not confirm or deny that it had dealt with the case.

The documents were first provided to BuzzFeed News by Mike Cernovich, who said he gave the documents to BuzzFeed News for vetting and further reporting, and because he said if he published them himself, Democrats and congressional leaders would “try to discredit the story by attacking the messenger.” He provided them without conditions. BuzzFeed News independently confirmed the authenticity of the documents with four people directly involved with the case, including the accuser.

In a series of tweets published last night, Cernovich explained why he leaked the story to Buzzfeed, and also blamed House Speaker Paul Ryan for covering up Conyers’ harassment.

 

 

 

 

In her wrongful dismissal complaint, the former employee said Conyers repeatedly asked her for sexual favors and often asked her to join him in a hotel room. On one occasion, she alleges that Conyers asked her to work out of his room for the evening, but when she arrived the congressman started talking about his sexual desires. She alleged he then told her she needed to “touch it,” in reference to his penis, or find him a woman who would meet his sexual demands.

As Buzzfeed pointed out, Congress has no human resources department. Instead, congressional employees have 180 days to report a sexual harassment incident to the Office of Compliance, which then leads to a lengthy process that involves counseling and mediation, and requires the signing of a confidentiality agreement before a complaint can go forward. After this, the complainant can choose to either pursue the matter in federal district court or seek a settlement through an administrative hearing.

In the complaint, which is available in full below, the woman alleges that Conyers sexually harassed her by asking her to touch his penis, or find another woman who would meet his sexual demands. Conyers also made her work nights, weekends and holidays on occasion to “keep him company.”

In her complaint, the former employee said Conyers repeatedly asked her for sexual favors and often asked her to join him in a hotel room. On one occasion, she alleges that Conyers asked her to work out of his room for the evening, but when she arrived the congressman started talking about his sexual desires. She alleged he then told her she needed to “touch it,” in reference to his penis, or find him a woman who would meet his sexual demands. She alleged Conyers made her work nights, evenings, and holidays to keep him company.

 

In another incident, the former employee alleged the congressman insisted she stay in his room while they traveled together for a fundraising event. When she told him that she would not stay with him, she alleged he told her to “just cuddle up with me and caress me before you go.”

 

“Rep. Conyers strongly postulated that the performing of personal service or favors would be looked upon favorably and lead to salary increases or promotions,” the former employee said in the documents.

Three other staff members provided affidavits submitted to the Office Of Compliance that outlined a pattern of behavior from Conyers that included touching the woman in a sexual manner and growing angry when she brought her husband around.

 

One affidavit from a former female employee states that she was tasked with flying in women for the congressman. “One of my duties while working for Rep. Conyers was to keep a list of women that I assumed he was having affairs with and call them at his request and, if necessary, have them flown in using Congressional resources,” said her affidavit. (A second staffer alleged in an interview that Conyers used taxpayer resources to fly women to him.)

One male employee who corroborated the victim’s claims in an affidavit said he witnessed Conyers touch his staffers in an inappropriate, sexual manner. The women in his office said it was widely known that Conyers had sexual relationships with his staff, something the women felt undermined their credibility.

The employee said in her affidavit that Conyers also made sexual advances toward her: “I was driving the Congressman in my personal car and was resting my hand on the stick shift. Rep. Conyers reached over and began to caress my hand in a sexual manner.”

 

The woman said she told Conyers she was married and not interested in pursuing a sexual relationship, according to the affidavit. She said she was told many times by constituents that it was well-known that Conyers had sexual relationships with his staff, and said she and other female staffers felt this undermined their credibility.

 

“I am personally aware of several women who have experienced the same or similar sexual advances made towards them by Rep[.] John Conyers,” she said in her affidavit.

 

A male employee wrote that he witnessed Rep. Conyers rub the legs and other body parts of the complainant “in what appeared to be a sexual manner” and saw the congressman rub and touch other women “in an inappropriate manner.” The employee said he confronted Conyers about this behavior.

 

“Rep. Conyers said he needed to be ‘more careful’ because bad publicity would not be helpful as he runs for re-election. He ended the conversation with me by saying he would ‘work on’ his behavior,” the male staffer said in his affidavit.

One reason Conyers’ staffers tolerated his behavior, as Buzzfeed points out, was the Congressman’s status as a civil rights icon, something his staffers believed insulated him from criticism. He is also incredibly popular among his constituents in Detroir.

Conyers is a civil rights icon. He was lauded by Martin Luther King Jr. and is a founding member of the Congressional Black Caucus.

 

“Your story won’t do shit to him,” said the staffer. “He’s untouchable.”

Representatives for Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi and former Speaker John Boehner said both lawmakers were unaware of the settlements because of the confidentiality agreements. Paul Ryan’s office didn’t return Buzzfeed’s request for comment.

To help rectify Congress’s broken system, Rep. Speiers has introduced legislation to overhaul the complaint process, including requiring the Office of Compliance to publicly name the office of any member who enters into a settlement. The bill would also allow complainants to waive mediation and counseling, set up a victims' counsel, and require all congressional offices to go through harassment training every year.

In the meantime, we imagine this won’t be the last bombshell disclosure implicating a high-ranking member of Congress. Indeed, if recent trends are any guide, it’s only a matter of time, we believe, before the Republican whom Speiers alluded to is unmasked.

Read the complaint in its entirety below:

 

2017.11.21buzzfeed by zerohedge on Scribd


 

 

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Open Season on Lena Dunham: New at Reason

The right and the left is piling on Lena Dunham’s apology for questioning the sexual assault allegations of actress Aurora Perrineau. But while Dunham may have brought some of it on herself, Brendan O’Neill says the vitriol is undeserved.

But she also doesn’t deserve it because surely no one deserves to be metaphorically strung up like this simply for expressing skepticism about an accusation of criminal activity. This is the problem: in calling out Dunham’s double standard on believing accusers, we risk further entrenching the rush to believe accusers, the primacy of accusation over justice. The ritual denunciations of Dunham, and her craven apology in response to them, exacerbates the very notion that any kind of defense of a person accused of sexual assault is a huge no-go zone, something only cretins or rape apologists would do.



In going after Dunham like this, her critics, including many on the right, have worsened the often shrill, unforgiving culture that Dunham and other modern illiberal liberals have helped to bring about. Well done, guys.



That a woman has been put under enormous pressure to retract a statement of conscience, an expression of doubt, a defense of a friend, confirms how terrifying the fallout from the Hollywood sexual-harassment scandal has become. Now, not only are all sorts of sexual behavior, from the fairly innocent to the absolutely terrible, being called out on a daily basis, but so are those who say “Hang on a second…”

View this article.

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A Holiday Guide … to Surveillance Reform Legislation: New at Reason

SurveillanceBefore the year’s end Congress needs to decide what it’s going to do about an important regulation overseeing the authority of federal intelligence agencies to engage in surveillance.

Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) Amendments permits the federal government to engage in surveillance of foreign targets that are not on U.S. soil, secretly and without warrants.

Section 702 sunsets at the end of the year if Congress does not act to renew it.

These surveillance authorities have since become a source of controversy because, despite the fact that it this snooping is only supposed to target foreigners outside the United States, it has become increasingly clear to the public that Section 702 surveillance was also drawing in domestic communications from Americans when they were communicating with (or sometimes even about) a foreign target.

Scott Shackford explains the three bills under consideration to reform Section 702. One is excellent (and no wonder, with privacy-protecting Sens. Rand Paul and Ron Wyden involved); one is worse but represents the compromise option; and one is absolutely terrible and would codify a significant violation of Americans’ Fourth Amendment protections against unwarranted searches.

View this article.

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Taxes: here’s what’s going to stay the SAME

On October 3, 1913, US President Woodrow Wilson signed the Underwood-Simmons Act into law, creating what would become the first modern US income tax.

The legislation (at least, the income tax portion) was only 16 pages and imposed a base tax rate of just 1%.

The highest tax rate was set at 7%– and it only applied to individuals earning more than $500,000 per year, which is about $12.6 million today according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

And individuals earning less than $3,000 (about $75,000 today) were exempt from paying tax.

Tax rates moved up and down over the years– the government raised rates to fund World War I, then lowered them in peacetime.

In fact, taxes were cut at least four separate times during the 1920s alone, reaching a low in 1929 of just 0.375% for the bottom tax bracket.

Back then, making major changes to tax law was pretty simple. Today, thanks to heavily vested interests on all sides, it takes a miracle to make any serious modifications to the tax code.

That’s why there hasn’t been any significant tax reform in the Land of the Free since Crocodile Dundee was the #1 movie in America (that’s 1986, by the way).

There are now two versions of legislation that will make major changes to the US tax code– one in the Senate and one in the House of Representatives.

I spent most of the nearly 30 hours of travel time during flights over the past week from Santiago to Sydney, Sydney to Bangkok, and Bangkok to Singapore, reading the proposals’ 400+ pages.

The media is touting these bills as a ‘major overhaul’ and ‘comprehensive reform,’ and financial markets have been treating this legislation as if the second coming of capitalism is walking across the water.

It’s not.

Sure, there are a few significant changes.

They’re scrapping the idiotic Alternative Minimum Tax, which ensnares more and more people each year.

Tax rates on certain business profits are going down substantially.

And they’re making tax reporting a lot simpler, saving countless hours of senseless paperwork.

Undoubtedly there are plenty of positive changes in this proposed tax code.

There are also plenty of negative changes.

Some people will benefit. Others will see their tax bills grow.

But for the most part the tax code will stay the same– they’re essentially just rearranging the pieces on the board rather than coming up with an entirely different game.

The existing tax code is built on a legal framework that goes back to the 1950s… a time when manufacturing and agriculture were economic mainstays.

Businesses rarely outsourced their production back then or even thought about selling their products overseas.

Entrepreneurship was uncommon. Employees often remained with the same company for decades. And few women were in the labor force.

Today it’s completely different. The digital economy has displaced manufacturing; business is now dominated by ideas, not factories.

And it’s easier than ever before in human history to start a business, sell products and services worldwide, and even hire employees who live on the other side of the planet.

It seems ludicrous to govern the digital, global businesses of the 21st century with such an antiquated, industrial-era tax code.

True reform would have started by throwing all of it in the garbage, right where it belongs.

You wouldn’t even have to reinvent the wheel; there are plenty of great examples in the world of tax systems that work extremely well– like right here in Singapore.

Singapore’s government is awash with cash.

They almost always run a small budget surplus, yet they’re able to provide ample public services, world class health care, high quality education, strong national defense, pristine infrastructure, and a substantial reserve fund.

But at the same time they encourage people to become wealthy, ensuring that they keep the vast majority of what they earn.

Tax rates in Singapore are quite low and incredibly competitive. Whereas the US corporate tax rate may drop to as low as 20%, in Singapore a company pays no more than 17%, and typically less than 10%.

Right now I’m in the process of negotiating the sale of an asset we purchased here a couple of years ago which will likely produce several million dollars in net realized gains once the deal is closed.

But we won’t pay a dime of tax here on any of it… because Singapore does not tax capital gains.

It’s a model that works: Singaporeans have one of the highest standards of living in the world… plus there are more millionaires per capita here than in any other country.

And this country is just one example. There are plenty more.

Point is, while it’s nice that they’re trying, it’s going to be very difficult for the US government to achieve anything meaningful or truly revolutionary when they’re essentially just making some changes to the pitifully outdated, existing tax code.

But the good news is that, even though the euphoria and expectations about this new proposal are totally overblown, there are still plenty of gems from the current tax code that aren’t going anywhere.

For example– if you’re a self-employed professional and you’re worried that the new tax code will probably increase your tax bill, you still have some excellent options.

There’s nothing in the proposed law that changes, for example, the substantial tax benefits you can realize from establishing a solo 401(k) or SEP IRA plan.

Nor did I see anything changing the enormous benefits from setting up a captive insurance company (in which you effectively insure yourself against certain risks, shielding up to $2 million per year from taxation).

Those are still fully intact.

So is the US federal tax exemption for certain legal residents of US territories. Which means that you can still qualify for Puerto Rico’s ultra-generous 0%/4% tax incentive programs.

There are dozens of other great tax strategies from the old tax code which will remain.

Source

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Goldman Bets On “Rational Exuberance”: Unveils Its S&P Price Targets, Sees Bull Market Lasting Until 2020

Just days after Barclays released its 2018 equity outlook with the title “Rational Exuberance”…

… Goldman’s David Kostin decided that imitation is the sincerest form of flattery and in presenting his S&P price target* for 2018 (and 2019 and 2020), and has named his preview report the same:

We footnoted price target, because once again Kostin has decided to avoid making a definitive forecast for where the S&P will go in the near term, and instead – as he did one month ago – has left the trajectory of the S&P entirely contingent on the fate of tax reform over the next few months.

That said, and not surprisingly, Goldman is optimistic and sees the bull market continuing for at least another three years due to an “extended profit cycle will support a rising US equity market through 2020.” As a result, Goldman sees higher profits supporting higher index levels, and its S&P 500 year-end forecasts are 2850 (2018), 3000 (2019), and 3100 (2020) for gains of 11%, 5%, and 3%.”

Going back to the caveat, however, Kostin writes that “assuming tax reform passes, we forecast 2018 S&P 500 EPS will jump by 14% to $150 and the index will advance by 11% to 2850 at year-end 2018. If tax reform fails, S&P 500 will fall near-term by 5% to 2450.”

Assuming tax reform does pass, and the market does not undergo the predicted 5% hiccup, Goldman’s prediction is based on, you guessed it, “rational exuberance”, to wit:

  • The bull market will continue in 2018: Our “rational exuberance” rests on a combination of above-trend US and global economic growth, low albeit slowly rising interest rates, and profit growth aided by corporate tax reform likely to be adopted by early next year. Assuming tax reform passes, we forecast S&P 500 adjusted EPS will jump by 14% to $150 in 2018. Equity investors will be rewarded as the index advances by 11% to 2850 at year-end 2018 and delivers a total return of 13% including the 2% dividend yield
  • Tax reform and strong economic growth drive our improved profit outlook. We raise our S&P 500 EPS estimates to $150 (2018) and $158 (2019) reflecting growth of 14% and 5%. Our forecast assumes tax reform and is above bottom-up consensus for 2018 ($146) but below for 2019 ($161) given we forecast flat (10.5%) rather than rising (10.8%) margins.
  • One final year of valuation expansion before multiples plateau. Our target implies a 3% P/E expansion to 18.2x at year-end 2018. Our valuation framework incorporates: (1) relationship between ROE and Price/Book ratio; (2) Fed Model earnings yield gap reverts to its 40-year average while Treasury yield rises to 3.0% during the next 12 months; (3) rising short- and long-term interest rates.

As noted above, Goldman raises its S&P 500 adjusted EPS estimates to $131 in 2017 (from $129) and $150 in 2018 (from $139) reflecting growth of 14%. In addition to a stronger  economic backdrop for corporate earnings, Goldman’s baseline EPS estimates now include a 5% boost from corporate tax reform in 2018.

In summary, there are four drivers to Goldman’s increased earnings forecast: (1) tax reform, (2) strong 2017 earnings results, (3) higher US GDP growth, and (4) higher oil prices. Excluding tax reform, we expect less margin expansion and slower EPS growth than consensus in 2018 and 2019. Our EPS estimates without tax reform are $143 (2018), $151 (2019), and $156 (2020).

What is also notable, is that Goldman anticipates tax reform – if it passes – boosting profit margins only one year: from 2018 to 2019, with the rest staying flat. Also notable: Goldman sees all profit margin growth being derived on the back of tech companies, as shown in the chart below. Ex-Info Tech margins are flat at best:

We forecast S&P 500 margins will peak in 2018 at 10.5%. Aided by the secular rise in Information Technology margins, current trailing 4-quarter S&P 500 net profit margins stand at 9.8%, a record high, and we expect full-year 2017 margins will equal 9.9%. A one-time boost from a reduced corporate tax rate and strong revenue growth for large-cap technology companies will lift 2018 margins by 56 bp to 10.5%. We expect margins will decline modestly through 2020 as late-cycle pressures continue to mount.

That said, exuberance, whether rational or otherwise, is clearly present, as Goldman makes clear:

After a nine-year rally, stocks now trade at lofty valuations relative to history on both an absolute and relative basis. S&P 500 has returned more than 350% (a 19% annualized total return) since the index bottomed in March 2009. Both the aggregate S&P 500 index and the median stock trade at extremely elevated P/E, P/B, EV/Sales, and EV/EBITDA multiples. Similarly, government bond yields on both a nominal and real basis are low (implying high valuation) and credit spreads for both investment-grade and high yield bonds are tight by historical standards.

Furthermore, any mentions of exuberance will immediately bring up the 1990s bull market, when the term first emerged courtesy of one Alan Greenspan:

On December 5, 1996, with the S&P 500 index trading at a then record high forward P/E multiple of 15x, Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan delivered a speech to the American Enterprise Institute in which he noted: “Clearly sustained low inflation implies less uncertainty about the future, and lower risk premiums imply higher prices of stocks and other earning assets. We can see that in the inverse relationship exhibited by P/E ratios and the rate of inflation in the past.” (The Age of Turbulence: Adventures in a New World, Alan Greenspan, Penguin, 2007, page 177).

 

Chairman Greenspan went on to pose a famous rhetorical question in the next sentence of his speech: “But how do we know when irrational exuberance has unduly escalated asset values, which then become subject to unexpected and prolonged contractions, as they have in Japan over the past decade?” At the time, the Fed chair was concerned about what he perceived as the “looniness” of stock prices. He “worried that investors were getting carried away and stock prices were beginning to embody expectations so exorbitant that they could never be met” (p. 174).

Perhaps a more apt phrase would be one made legendary by Citi’s then CEO Chuck Prince who said that “as long as the music is playing, you’ve got to get up and dance.” One look at market and it is abundantly clear that there is a lot of dancing going on. And since nobody wants to be the first to spoil the part, Goldman will get on board, however grudgingly, as the following caveat reveals:

Unfortunately, it is only in retrospect that one can definitively establish that assets have reached unsustainable levels. Greenspan was prescient, but three years early. Following Greenspan’s speech warning of the potential for excessive valuations, the S&P 500 subsequently more than doubled (+116%) during the next three years before the Tech bubble finally peaked in March 2000 at a forward P/E multiple of 24x.

So assuming assets haven’t yet reached unsustainable levels, what can one say, besides what Barclays already said last week: the rally is exuberant… but rational!? Here’s Goldman:

Rational exuberance” best describes our forecast for the trajectory of the S&P 500 during the next several years. Earnings drive stocks over time and should support the index rising to 2850 at year-end 2018, 3000 at the end of 2019, and 3100 by the close of 2020, representing a price gain during the next three years of 20% (see Exhibit 1). Our price targets imply a modest expansion in forward P/E multiple to 18.2x at year-end 2018, a flat multiple in 2019, and a contraction to 18.1x in 2020.

 

An earnings-driven bull market is inherently rational for a fundamental equity investor. Decomposing the building blocks of a rally allows an investor to differentiate between what has a foundation of stone and what is a castle in the air. Between  1987 and 1996, the S&P 500 index was lifted by roughly 30% from P/E multiple expansion and 70% from earnings growth. The components of the current bull market that started in 2009 are similar: Valuation expansion has accounted for about 30% of the rally, profit growth about 50%, and the remaining 20% from an increase in expected EPS growth.

Meanwhile, this is what Goldman would defined as irrational exuberance:

We would deem it “irrational exuberance” if the S&P 500 during the next three years followed the exponential trajectory of stocks in the late 1990s. In that situation, the S&P 500 would trade at 5300 by year-end 2020 (a 105% rise from today). If stocks instead trade at a similar forward P/E to the Tech Bubble (24x), it would imply a year-end 2020 index level of 4050 (57% above today). During the three years post Greenspan’s speech, S&P 500 EPS rose by 26% ($40 to $50). Translated to today, such a growth rate would imply 2020 EPS of $166 compared with our estimate of $163.

To be sure, despite conceding that valuations have never been higher, Kostin tries to make an attractive valuation argument for the S&P, to which he counters that one could still see modest multiple expansion, although most of this is now in the past. As a result, the big wild card is whether tax reform passes or not, needless a rather major gamble when the delta is 400 S&P points:

Today, the S&P 500 effectively trades at a forward P/E multiple of 17.7x. The index currently trades at 18.1x forward bottom-up consensus EPS of $143. However, if the market were fully assuming corporate tax reform, then the forward EPS estimate would be $150 (assuming our estimated $7 boost from tax reform) and the index would be trading at a forward P/E multiple of 17.3x. Based on the relative performance of tax-exposed equities and prediction markets, we estimate the market assigns a roughly 50% likelihood that corporate tax reform is adopted. Using a blended EPS estimate of $146 implies the market effectively trades at a forward P/E multiple of 17.7x.

Once again, Goldman’s entire 3 year forecast is contingent on just one thing: tax reform.

The largest contributor to our increased EPS estimates is corporate tax reform. Two weeks ago, the House and Senate released their respective tax reform proposals. Considerable uncertainty surrounds the final provisions of the plans, but both chambers have incorporated a tax cut of roughly $1.5 trillion over the next 10 years. Our political economist assigns an 80% likelihood that tax legislation will pass by 1Q 2018. Our baseline forecast includes several key tenets: (1) a reduction in the domestic federal statutory corporate tax rate; (2) a territorial system for foreign income, including a minimum tax rate; (3) a limit on interest deductibility; (4) immediate business equipment expensing; (5) base broadening; and (6) a one-time tax on overseas cash and earnings.

Tax reform aside, bizarrely, Goldman’s argument boils down to whether the exuberance that drives the market for the next 3 years is rational or irrational. It looks something like this:

There is one caveats, chief among which is that the rally will in just two weeks become the 3rd longest in history with a 5% dradown, and just 24 days later, the longest on record.

Low volatility is perhaps the most remarkable aspect of the current bull market. It has been more than 350 trading days since the S&P 500 has experienced a drawdown of 5% or more, the fourth-longest period since 1930 (see Exhibit 3). Realized volatility stands at the lowest level in 50 years. Moreover, the market term structure implies volatility will remain well-below average during the next five years. In his memoir, Greenspan notes that “one major factor causing stock prices to rise [in the 1990s] was investors’ growing confidence that stability would continue.” (page 175).

of course, there are also risks that Goldman’s entire forecast will be dead wrong, and we will cover these shortly in a follow up article.

via http://ift.tt/2A1TaSo Tyler Durden