You Know It’s Late In The Cycle When The Yield Curve Starts Generating Headlines

Authored by John Rubino via DollarCollapse.com,

The yield curve is one of those indicators that most people have heard of but few can explain. In part this is because it’s usually a non-issue, only becoming important enough to argue about during the final year of long expansions.

Like now:

Yield curve flattening maintains relentless momentum

(MarketWarch) – The yield curve flattened this week after the Fed minutes suggested that the December rate increase was a near-certainty, even as senior central bankers held concerns about lackluster inflation. The yield curve refers to the line drawing out a bond’s yield and its respective maturities, with a flatter slope signifying weaker growth outlook.

 

The spread between the 2-year yield and the 30-year yield, one gauge of the curve’s steepness, narrowed to 0.60 percentage point, the tightest span in a decade.

 

*  *  *

Yield Curve Carnage Continues

(Zero Hedge) – The US Treasury yield curve collapse continued its unending path to inversion overnight with 2s10s plunging to sub-60bps and 5s30s hits a 65bps handle for the first time since Nov 2007.

 

2s10s has flattened for 3 days straight, 6 of the last 7 days, and 14 of the last 17 days to a 58bps handle…

 

 

As a gentle reminder to all those shrugging this off, BofA reminds that in seven out of seven occasions in the last 50 years an inverted yield curve has been the prelude to recession.

 

In fact, the last four times the US yield curve was at these levels, the US economy was already in recession.

 

*  *  *

 

Why The Treasury Curve Has Been Flattening Like A Pancake: Pension Fund Buying And Tax Reform

(Zero Hedge) – Currently, the top corp tax rate in the US is 35%. It looks most likely that rate will drop to 20% when tax reform passes. If you are a corp with an underfunded pension fund, you get a tax incentive to fund the pension THIS YEAR vs in the future when the corp tax rate drops to 20%. Why? Because contributions to the pension plan are tax deductible. You get a bigger tax deduction in 2017 then you will get in 2018 and onwards (assuming tax reform happens in something close to its current form…which it looks like it will).

 

Multiple primary dealers have reported pension buying in the 30yr sector over the past month, and coincidentally, 30yr bonds have rallied while the front end has sold off for the past month. Pension funds have a favorite bond to buy…STRIPS (30yr zero coupon bonds – higher yield than normal coupon bonds, better asset/liability match..more price sensitive to changes in yield…bigger bang for your buck in a bond rally..and is a flattener to the yield curve). Pension funds don’t trade very much….they tend to buy and hold.

 

So these flows will SIGNIFICANTLY flatten the 30yr curve…and that is exactly what we have been seeing.

 

US Treasury yield changes (basis points) since Oct 24, 2017

 

So, step 1, Mystery Solved.

 

But Wait, There’s More. If corp pensions are buying 30yr bonds, they are also buying stocks, to keep their relative portfolio weights stable (explains the recent stock rally).

 

However, come Jan 1 2018, that buying will evaporate, and then DOWN GOES FRAIZER (Fraizer is the US stock market).

 

*  *  *

Stop worrying about the US yield curve – it’s a distortion.

(Mint Partners’ Bill Blain) – The flatter US curve is NOT sending a deep meaningful warning of looming recession. It’s hiding something much worse….

 

The short-end of the US curve reflects what the Fed has done in terms of hiking rates. But, the long end of the US Curve (10-30) is being driven by very different forces. It has flattened because of interest rate differentials between the ZIRP rest of world and the rate normalising US, but also on the fact external investors effectively drive US rates because they are the forced buyers!

 

Ongoing QE distortions in Europe and Japan are still driving close to Zero domestic interest rates – forcing investors offshore. Global demand for duration partially explains why the US 10-30 curve appears to have flattened. The transmission effects of $5 trillion QE in last three years is a massive allocation towards US assets – which explains why the 10-yr is sticking round 2.5% and the term premium is negative. Remove these effects of global distortion and the US curve would look much steeper and cause far less fear, panic and mania than the yield curve doomsters perceive. Relax. The yield curve is not the thing to worry about.

 

That dark thing is inflation! Over the last 10-years – since the Global Financial Crisis – we’ve seen the main drivers of inflation stagnate across the board. (I’ve argued many times if you want to see inflation then look at financial assets.) While prices and inflation signals have flat-lined, the inflation Central Bank feared they would create through QE has been incubating in massively inflated real assets – stocks and bonds. My Macro Economist colleague Martin Malone reckons an inflation shock is now a 50% plus risk! He points out all the major inflation drivers are coming back on line.

  • Global inflationary expectations have risen dramatically this year
  • Inflation data – which was deflationary 5 years ago, then flat, has now accelerated towards more normal levels
  • Real Asset Prices – particularly housing and real estate rose dramatically over last 3 years
  • Risk Assets – like bond and stocks remain hugely inflated
  • Oil and commodities prices are rising
  • Jobs are being created around the world, and increasing number of countries now looking at supply side fiscal policy means wage inflation looks inevitable! The Philips Curve returns!

 

Malone has quantified all the inflation drivers and added them up. He reckons in inflation drivers haven’t been this high since 2007! Ask anyone on the street about inflation and they’ll tell you it’s very real. Wages have stagnated for 10-years, but prices are clearly rising.

In other words, this time may or may not be different. Possible explanations for the flattening yield curve include:

  • A typical late-cycle transition from positive to negative slope (i.e., yield curve inversion), which implies a recession and equities bear market in 2018.
  • Temporary tax reform distortion, which, when reversed out, will cause an equities bear market in 2018.
  • Massive global liquidity pouring into long-dated Treasuries, which means spiking inflation followed by, we have to assume, rising interest rates followed in turn by a stock and/or bond crash in 2018.

Seems like we end up in pretty much the same place regardless.

 

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Hawaii, Which Registers Guns and Medical Marijuana Users, Starts Disarming Patients

Hawaii is one of 29 states that allow medical use of marijuana, but it is the only state that requires registration of all firearms. If you are familiar with the criteria that bar people from owning guns under federal law, you can probably surmise what the conjunction of these two facts means for patients who use cannabis as a medicine, which Hawaii allows them to do only if they register with the state. This month many of them received a letter from Honolulu Police Chief Susan Ballard, instructing them to turn in their guns.

“Your medical marijuana use disqualifies you from ownership of firearms and ammunition,” Ballard says in the November 13 letter, which Leafly obtained this week after Russ Belville noted it in his Marijuana Agenda podcast. “If you currently own or have any firearms, you have 30 days upon receipt of this letter to voluntarily surrender your firearms, permit, and ammunition to the Honolulu Police Department (HPD) or otherwise transfer ownership. A medical doctor’s clearance letter is required for any future firearms applications or return of firearms from HPD evidence.”

Although medical marijuana states typically register patients and/or issue them ID cards, Hawaii is unusual in making its registry both mandatory and accessible for purposes other than confirming eligibility, which is how Ballard knew where to send her warning. The letter, which comes just three months after Hawaii’s first medical marijuana dispensary opened, does not say what will happen to gun owners who fail to “voluntarily” give up their weapons. But if police decide to pay them a visit, it should be easy enough to locate them by comparing the state’s list of patients with its list of gun owners.

As authority for disarming medical marijuana users, Ballard cites Section 134-7(a) of Hawaii’s Revised Statutes, which says “no person who is a fugitive from justice or is a person prohibited from possessing firearms or ammunition under federal law shall own, possess, or control any firearm or ammunition.” The relevant federal provision prohibits possession of firearms by anyone who is “an unlawful user of or addicted to any controlled substance.” Since federal law does not recognize any legitimate reason for consuming cannabis, all use is unlawful use, as the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms, and Explosives makes clear in a boldfaced warning on the form that must be completed by anyone buying a gun from a federally licensed dealer: “The use or possession of marijuana remains unlawful under Federal law regardless of whether it has been legalized or decriminalized for medicinal or recreational purposes in the state where you reside.”

Last year the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 9th Circuit, which includes Hawaii, upheld the ATF’s policy of banning gun sales to people who are known to have medical marijuana cards, even if they do not currently consume cannabis. The appeals court reasoned that possessing a medical marijuana card is a good if imperfect indicator of illegal drug use, which is in turn associated with violence, “impaired mental states,” and “negative interactions with law enforcement officers.” The 9th Circuit concluded that there is a “reasonable fit” between the ATF’s policy and a substantial government objective, which means it passes “intermediate scrutiny” and is consistent with the constitutional right to keep and bear arms.

Most people probably do not realize how casually the federal government strips Americans of their Second Amendment rights, because enforcement of these longstanding rules is spotty and haphazard. Federal law notionally bars gun ownership by all of America’s 38 million or so cannabis consumers, along with millions of other unlawful users of controlled substances, including anyone who takes a medication prescribed for someone else or uses it for a purpose different from the one specified by a doctor (for back pain rather than tooth pain, say). But enforcing that ban is difficult because the FBI and the ATF generally don’t know who the unlawful users are. Hawaii has begun to lick that problem and therefore can give us a sense of what “enforcing the laws that are already on the books,” as the NRA frequently recommends, would look like in practice.

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Senator Graham Warns U.S. “Headed To War” With North Korea “If Things Don’t Change”

Following yesterday’s missile launch from North Korea, Senator Lindsey Graham joined CNN’s Wolf Blitzer to warn that the U.S. is “headed to war” with the “crazy man” in North Korea “if things don’t change.”  Here are some excerpts from the interview via RT:

The US will go to war with North Korea “if things don’t change,” Sen. Lindsay Graham said, acknowledging that “a lot of people would get hurt and killed.” Meanwhile, Russia and China have once again urged for both sides to exercise restraint and dialogue.

 

“If we have to go to war to stop this, we will,” the Republican senator told CNN’s Wolf Blitzer on Tuesday. “If there’s a war with North Korea, it will be because North Korea brought it on itself, and we’re headed to a war if things don’t change.”

 

Graham stated that neither he nor US President Donald Trump wants a war, but stressed that “we’re not going to let this crazy man in North Korea have the capability to hit the homeland.”

 

When asked by Blitzer about civilian casualties that would occur in a war with North Korea, including in the densely populated South Korean capital of Seoul, Graham said: “It’s not lost by me what a war would look like with North Korea. One, we would win it, but a lot of people would get hurt and killed…”

 

However, he stressed that “the president’s got to pick between homeland security and regional stability.” He noted that when it comes to that decision, “the president is picking America over the region and I hope the region will help us find a diplomatic solution.”

 

“He is ready, if necessary, to destroy this regime to protect America, and I hope the regime understands that if President Trump has to pick between destroying the North Korean regime and the American homeland, he’s going to destroy the regime. I hope China understands that also,” Graham said.

Of course, as we noted yesterday, according to a preliminary analysis from the Pentagon, the rocket launched by North Korea was an Intercontinental Ballistic Missile, which was reported to have flown for 50 minutes, on a very high trajectory reaching 4,500 km above the earth (more than ten times higher than the orbit of Nasa’s International Space Station) before coming down nearly 1,000 km from the launch site off the west coast of Japan.

This would make it the most powerful of the three ICBM’s North Korea has tested so far. Furthermore, the mobile night launch appeared aimed at testing new capabilities and demonstrating that Pyongyang would be able to strike back to any attempt at a preventative strike against the regime.

This is concerning for one big reason: according to General Mattis, the North Korean ICBM “went higher, frankly, than any previous” and “North Korea can basically threaten everywhere in the world.” This was confirmed by North Korea missile analyst, Shea Cotton, who cited Allthingsnuclear author David Wright, and who told the BBC that the initial estimates of the ICBM test mean that North Korea can now reach New York and Washington DC.

Finally, here is opinion of David Wright, physicist and co-director of the UCS Global Security Program, whose insight on North Korean launches has emerged as one of the most informative over the past year.

North Korea’s Longest Missile Test Yet

 

After more than two months without a missile launch, North Korea did a middle-of-the-night test (3:17 am local time) today that appears to be its longest yet.

 

Reports are saying that the missile test was highly lofted and landed in the Sea of Japan some 960 km (600 miles) from the launch site. They are also saying the missile reached a maximum altitude of 4,500 km. This would mean that it flew for about 54 minutes, which is consistent with reports from Japan.

 

If these numbers are correct, then if flown on a standard trajectory rather than this lofted trajectory, this missile would have a range of more than 13,000 km (8,100 miles). This is significantly longer than North Korea’s previous long range tests, which flew on lofted trajectories for 37 minutes (July 4) and 47 minutes (July 28). Such a missile would have more than enough range to reach Washington, DC, and in fact any part of the continental United States.

 

We do not know how heavy a payload this missile carried, but given the increase in range it seems likely that it carried a very light mock warhead. If true, that means it would not be capable of carrying a nuclear warhead to this long distance, since such a warhead would be much heavier. 

The question now is what Trump meant when late on Tuesday, in response to a question how the US would respond to the latest ICBM launch, he said “we will handle it.”

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Bosnian-Croat War Criminal Dies After Drinking Poison In Hague Court

A Bosnian Croat wartime commander died on Wednesday shortly after he drank poison, seconds after U.N. appeals judges upheld his 20-year sentence for war crimes against Bosnian Muslims.

Slobodan Praljak, 72, a former wartime leader, tilted back his head and took a swing from a flask or glass as the judge read out the verdict. The man’s defense lawyer then told the court that the accused had “taken poison.” The presiding judge stopped the proceedings and ordered a doctor to be called, Reuters reports.

“I just drank poison,” he said. “I am not a war criminal. I oppose this conviction.”

Praljak sat back down and slumped in his chair, a lawyer who was in the courtroom at the time said. The presiding judge suspended the hearing and called for a doctor. An ambulance was at the building and paramedics went to the courtroom.

Praljak was convicted of involvement in a campaign to drive Muslims out of Bosnia and create an ethnically pure Croat state during the Bosnian war in the 1990s sparked by the breakup of Yugoslavia. The conflict mainly saw Bosnian Muslims fighting Bosnian Serbs, but there was also deadly clashes involving Bosnian Muslims and Croats after an alliance fell apart. A total of 100,000 people died and 2.2 million were displaced in the three-year war.

Quoted by Reuters, Croatian General Marinko Kresic told Croatian state TV he had spoken to the wife of another defendant, General Miroslav Praljak, who was in The Hague. “She confirmed that he drank the poison and that he is in a very grave health condition,” he said.

Praljak died shortly after.

A UN judge who later called the site a “crime scene” said that Dutch police are investigating the incident.

As Reuters adds, the court said it would resume reading the verdict, which is also handling cases against five other defendants, including Milivoje Petkovic.

Prior to drinking the substance, Praljak had heard that his 20-year sentence for alleged war crimes in the Bosnian city of Mostar was being upheld. Praljak, who was one of six former Bosnian Croats having their appeal heard at the UN tribunal, is reported to have told the judge that he is not “a war criminal.”

The dramatic events came in the final minutes of the court’s last verdict before closing down. The International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia (ICTY), established by the United Nations in 1993, shuts its doors next month when its mandate expires. The court’s lead suspect, former Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic, died of a heart attack in March 2006 months before a ruling in his genocide case.

Two defendants awaiting trial committed suicide by hanging themselves in their U.N. cells, according to court documents. Slavko Dogmanovic died in 1998 and Milan Babi? was found dead in his locked cell in 2006. Last week, the same tribunal handed former Bosnian Serb general Ratko Mladic a life sentence for his role in the genocide of the Balkan Wars in the 1990s. Mladic was found guilty on 10 out of 11 charges, including the massacre of Bosnian Muslim men and boys in Srebrenica in 1995. He had pleaded not guilty on all counts.

Questions have been raised over the fairness of the international prosecution of crimes committed during the Balkan Wars. Of the 161 individuals indicted by the ICTY, the body created specifically to prosecute wartime crimes, 94 are ethnic Serbs, compared to 29 Croats, nine Albanians and nine Bosniaks. Two years ago, Russia used its UN veto right to block a resolution on the 20th anniversary of the Srebrenica tragedy, saying that the draft document depicted the Serbian people as the sole guilty party in the complex armed conflict in Yugoslavia.

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Bitcoin Tops $11,000 – Bundesbank Sees No Bubble, Stiglitz Says “Should Be Outlawed”

Well that re-escalated quickly…

It's been quite a year….

  • $0000 – $1000: 1789 days
  • $1000- $2000: 1271 days
  • $2000- $3000: 23 days
  • $3000- $4000: 62 days
  • $4000- $5000: 61 days
  • $5000- $6000: 8 days
  • $6000- $7000: 13 days
  • $7000- $8000: 14 days
  • $8000- $9000: 9 days
  • $9000-$10000: 2 days
  • $10000-$11000: 1 day

Big dip overnight was bought and as US equity markets prepare to open, Bitcoin just topped $11,000…

Bundesbank’s Buch Says Difficult to Tell If Bitcoin Is a Bubble

“The question we have to ask ourselves is to what extent there is an overvaluation in a certain market segment, and I tend to shy away from calling something a bubble formation because that’s difficult to assess,” Bundesbank Vice President Claudia Buch says at press conference in Frankfurt.

 

“The question that occupies us is whether these trends are strongly financed through credit and money is used to speculate, and as it’s not a very large market segment there is little information at the moment

Doesn’t currently see bitcoin as a financial stability risk for Germany

While some see broader acceptance of the cryptocurrency

Joseph Stiglitz, Nobel Laureate and Columbia University Professor, says the digital currency "ought to be outlawed."

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WTI Unable To Hold Gains Despite Russia, Saudi Jawboning

WTI Crude algos ran stos this morning to pre-API levels on the heels of Russian and Saudi comments, but those gains are fading fast as the machines run out of ammo.

API's surprise crude build sparked overnight selling…

But this morning's ramp after Saudi/Russia jawboning is fading fast.

Russia seemed to confirm its agreement:

  • *RUSSIA ENERGY MINISTER EXPECTS EXTENSION OF DEAL TOMORROW
  • *RUSSIA'S NOVAK SEES GENERAL UNDERSTANDING ON DEAL EXTENSION
  • *NOVAK: DEAL PARTICIPANTS SHOWING ‘RESPONSIBLE APPROACH’
  • *NOVAK: WE WILL DISCUSS RESULTS AND STRATEGY AFTER APRIL 2018

And Saudis:

  • *SAUDI ENERGY MINISTER: RESULTS OF OIL CUTS HAVE BEEN GRATIFYING
  • *OIL STOCKPILE DECLINE ACCELERATED IN THIRD QUARTER: AL-FALIH
  • *OPEC AND ALIIES CAN'T BE COMPLACENT: SAUDI MINISTER
  • *A GOOD DEAL MORE HARD WORK ON CUTS IS ESSENTIAL: AL-FALIH
  • *OPEC'S JOB IS NOT DONE: AL-FALIH
  • *WE NEED THE FULL COMMITMENT OF ALL COUNTRIES: AL-FALIH

All of which is great news for US Shale as production surges to new record highs.

As Goldman's Currie notes (as we detailed here):

  • *GOING INTO OPEC MEETING, RISK IS TO THE DOWNSIDE: CURRIE
  • *MARKET HAS PRICED IN 6-9 MONTH OPEC DEAL EXTENSION: CURRIE
  • *CURRIE SEES $2.50 ADD TO OIL PRICE FROM OPEC MEETING RUNUP

So sell the news?

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Q3 GDP Revised Up To 3.3%, Highest In 3 Years

After the BEA estimated that US GDP rose an already impressive 3.0% in Q3, moments ago the Department of Commerce revised its estimate for third quarter growth to 3.3% annualized, higher than the 3.2% print expected, the highest since the third quarter of 2014.

On a Y/Y basis, GDP rose by 2.3%, the highest since Q3 2015:

The increase in real GDP reflected increases in consumer spending, inventory investment, business investment, and exports. A notable offset to these increases was a decrease in housing investment. Imports, which are a subtraction from GDP, decreased. The increase in consumer spending reflected increases in spending on both goods and services. The increase in goods was primarily  attributable to motor vehicles. The increase in services primarily reflected increases in health care, financial services and insurance, and recreation services. The increase in inventory investment primarily reflected increases in the manufacturing and wholesale trade industries. The increase in business investment reflected increases in equipment and intellectual property products; these increases were partly offset by a decrease in structures.

Putting numbers to the data, Q3 Consumer Expenditures were revised modestly lower, from contributing 1.62% to the bottom line GDP, to 1.60%. This however was offset by upward revisions to all other GDP components, from Fixed Investment (from 0.25% to 0.39%) and Private Inventories (0.73% to 0.80%), to net trade (from 0.40% to 0.44%) and finally, government consumption, which also rose from -0.02% to 0.07%.

Some other numbers: Core PCE 1.4%, in line with the expected and above 1.3% from the initial estimate. PCE Prices rose 1.5% in Q3, same as consensus and unchanged from the initial estimate. The GDP Deflator came in a little weaker than expected, at 2.1% vs 2.2% exp. That miss however was offset by GDP Sales, which rose from 2.3% in the preliminary report to 2.5%, above the 2.4% expected.

Also notable in today’s release was the Corporate Profits number, which surged at a 4.3% annual rate in Q3, after increasing 0.7 percent in the second quarter.  Year over year corporate profits are up 5.4% in 3Q after rising 6.4% prior quarter, driven by financial industry profits which increased 13.7% in 3Q after falling 7.1% prior quarter. Also notable: Federal Reserve bank profits up 1.5% in 3Q after falling 10.6% prior quarter, while the nonfinancial sector profits rose 1% in 3Q after rising 4.9% prior quarter.

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Donate to Reason, Because Who Else Will Protect Your Right to Show Unicorn Masturbation Scenes While Serving Alcohol?

Free your ink, and the rest will follow. ||| ReasonEven though we’ve already had a Facebook Live mini-telethon, a Reason TV retrospective, a grand kick-off, and already around 200 donations here in the first 24 hours of Reason’s annual webathon—in which we ask all of you, our very favorite readers and viewers and commenters, to contribute some of your traditional or crypto currency to the 501(c)3 nonprofit that makes all of our journalism and commentary here possible—the most persuasive if unintentional argument for our work this week just might have come from conservative commentator Matthew Walther. Writing in The Week about how “Conservatism is dead,” Walther uncorks this fastball to the backstop:

Reason magazine thinks that the rights of pornographers and white supremacists are in need of safeguarding.

Why yes, yes we do. Libertarians believe that rights for all people need safeguarding. It’s kind of the point.

Granted, this is confusing to people who need to fit everything into boxes marked “Team Red” or “Team Blue.” For instance, watch The New York Times torture political adjectives in a piece last week about the Koch brothers (one of whom sits on Reason’s Board of Trustees) gearing up to participate in the purchase of Time Inc.:

Their foundations have helped fund organizations affiliated with conservative media outlets, including the libertarian Reason magazine and the Daily Caller website.

Um, sure.

This is why we’re gathered here today, to get through this thing called life, liberty, and the pursuit. This is why we hope you will donate to Reason right the hell now. Because in your heart, you know there’s only one publication ready to serve you headlines like….

First Amendment Protects Cinema’s Right to Show Unicorn Masturbation Scene While Serving Alcohol, Says Judge

D&D Creator Gary Gygax’s FBI Records Make Him Sound Like a Badass

The War on Goat Yoga

How a Blue Butterfly Stamp Brought Down One of the Dark Web’s Biggest Marijuana Vendors

Deported for Giving a Handjob?

And, obviously, “Young Louis Farrakhan Sings a Calypso Song About Transgender Surgery

It’s not because we’re all closet yoga-goatherders or even D&D players here (though I understand there’s an office Slack channel I need to be more aware of), but rather that edge cases are often where case law is made, and precisely where loyalists of one of the two dominant-if-eroding political tribes will turn their backs on, depending on the perceived virtue of the affected class. So yes, bikini baristas and gene-editors and body-sculptors and even armless droids—we’ve got you covered. And should ever the government get enough in your business that you feel the need to march on Washington, we’ll be there with cameras.

The world might not fully get it, but dammit, you do. Won’t you donate to Reason today?

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Matt Lauer Fired for Sexual Misconduct, Supreme Court Considers Cell-Phone Privacy, Even InfoWars Is Condemning Trump’s Latest Tweets: A.M. Links

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Gold Slammed On Massive Volume To Key Technical Support On GDP Beat

The better-than-expected second revision for Q3 GDP prompted algos to instantly dump yen and precious metals.

Gold was slammed down top its 100-day moving average on around 45,000 contracts (almost $6 billion notional)

 

The Feb Gold futures contract is finding support at the intersection of the 50- and 100-day moving average for now…

 

Silver is also suffering after being beaten down from its 200DMA (red)…

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