Not As Green As You Think – Global EV Push Sparks Cobalt Chaos

Not As Green As You Think – Global EV Push Sparks Cobalt Chaos

Global cobalt prices per metric ton are up more than 20% since the beginning of this year as increasing electric vehicle demand has strained global supply chains. 

WSJ spoke with auto and battery experts about cobalt, a metal found in lithium-ion batteries. Besides EVs, the blue metal is found in virtually every consumer electronics like cell phones, laptop computers, and tablets. 

Ying Lu, an analyst at London-based commodity research firm Roskill, was quoted by WSJ as saying, “demand is not going to shrink any time soon, while the supply remains tight mainly due to logistics disruptions in South Africa during the pandemic.” 

As explained by InsideSources, every EV battery contains cobalt, with most of it mined in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC).

DRC has sustained years of destabilization as the Congo government and armed militants duke it out over the control of mines. Much of the DRC cobalt is then hauled to South Africa and shipped to China for processing.

It’s not just automakers and suppliers buying cobalt from DRC, many are trying to recycle cobalt from old batteries and exploring other regions around the world for alternative sourcing.  

As a reminder, the Trump administration has signed an executive order in the US mining industry, highlighting America’s dangerous overdependence on China for rare-earth metals. 

In 2016 and 2018, massive interest poured into EVs with the Model 3 Tesla launch. Cobalt prices nearly quadrupled in that timeframe before crashing down in 2019. A recent move higher in prices could suggest that speculators have entered the market with the idea that President Biden’s effort for a greener economy could result in higher demand for the metal. 

Biden plans one million new auto industry jobs in manufacturing, supply chains, and infrastructure for an economy powered by new technologies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The government’s push to electrify the economy would increase demand for cobalt, nickel, and manganese, among other components needed for battery-making. 

Even with the US expected to boost EV production and supply chains under a new administration, China will continue to dominate the EV space. 

What a difference six months makes. The last time we reported on cobalt, prices fell to a ten-month low on waning demand from aerospace and EVs. 

Automakers need lithium-ion battery packs around $100 per kilowatt-hour mark for automakers to manufacture mass-market EVs – currently, at $137 per kilowatt-hour, surging prices for battery components is terrible news for automakers who are still not turning a profit on selling EVs. 

Are speculators about to dive headfirst into cobalt markets and push prices higher based on Biden’s new green economy?

Tyler Durden
Sun, 01/24/2021 – 07:35

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2YaKzcM Tyler Durden

In 2020, Teachers Unions and Police Unions Showed Their True Colors

publicsector1

From the spread of COVID-19 and the wave of state-imposed closures that followed to the police killings of George Floyd and Breonna Taylor and the unrest that ensued, 2020 was a year in which American institutions flailed and failed. And few failures were bigger or more apparent than those of public-sector unions.

By pushing to keep schools closed even as evidence mounted that in-person classes were relatively low-risk and remote learning was ineffective, teachers unions failed students and parents. By pushing to protect bad cops in the wake of multiple scandals, police unions failed the public they were sworn to protect. And in the process, America got a glimpse of what public-sector unions, regardless of the profession they represent, really do.

Unions that represent government employees seek to maintain an image of themselves as protectors of common institutions that can be relied upon to serve the public interest. But the upheavals of 2020 made clear that the priority for public-sector unions is the opposite: to protect the interests of taxpayer-funded employees, especially when those interests diverge from those of the public they nominally serve.

Yet the politics of public-sector unions have left reforms in limbo. Culturally and politically, police have long been linked with the American right. Teachers, in contrast, are a core constituency of the Democratic Party and some of its loudest supporters and biggest donors.

Public-sector union reform should be a bipartisan issue. Instead, it has stalled or inched along, with each side protect-ing its own.

Teachers vs. Children and Parents

Of all the missteps and public policy failures of 2020, few were more egregious than the failure to reopen public schools for young children. In the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic, schools were shuttered across the nation out of fear that they would become vectors of viral spread. But by mid-summer, evidence from other countries that had reopened their schools, combined with data on how often and how severely children contract the disease, pointed to a clear conclusion: Schools—especially for younger students—were relatively safe. “School districts should prioritize reopening schools full time, especially for grades K-5 and students with special needs,” declared a press release describing a July report from the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine.

Some states, many with Republican governors, chose to bring children back to classrooms in some fashion. But others did not, preferring hastily cobbled-together forms of virtual education. According to one tracker, 62 percent of public schools began the fall semester online only. The dire effects were plain to see. Young children of all demographics fared badly in virtual school, unable to focus effectively on screen-based education from home. The negative effects were most pronounced among poor and minority students, who often lacked consistent access to computers or internet connections and whose chaotic home lives often made learning even more difficult.

A November report from the NWEA, a nonprofit education research organization, examined test scores from more than 4.4 million students and found that kids in third to eighth grade performed 5–10 points worse, on average, than a year prior. Black and Hispanic students, as well as those who attended schools in low-income areas, saw significant declines in reading test scores. The analysis concluded that “the impacts of COVID-19 on achievement for the most vulnerable students may be underestimated.”

The decision to close schools also hurt the careers of working mothers. By September 2020, about 1.1 million adults had dropped out of the U.S. workforce; 865,000 were women, according to the National Women’s Law Center.

There was little good-faith dispute about the merits of in-person instruction, the consequences of closure, and the safety of reopening. Although many prominent public health experts initially were cautious, by fall even they had come around. “The default position should be to try as best as possible, within reason, to keep the children in school, to get them back to school,” said Anthony Fauci, a White House health adviser and the longtime director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, in November.

The decision to keep so many schools closed was egregious because it was avoidable. It was egregious because its consequences were easy to predict. And it was egregious because it was largely the product of an organized fear campaign by a self-righteous, self-interested political faction that has for years been pursuing its own interests in direct opposition to the betterment of the families and children it is supposed to serve.

Across the country, teachers unions did everything they could to stop reopening. In July, American Federation of Teachers (AFT) President Randi Weingarten threatened “protests,” “grievances or lawsuits,” and even “safety strikes.” The following month in Chicago, Mayor Lori Lightfoot reversed a plan to partially reopen schools two days after the Chicago Teachers Union—which went on strike in 2019—marched against resuming in-person instruction.

The unions’ rhetoric emphasized the question of whether reopening schools was safe. Teachers in Washington, D.C., lined up body bags outside school system offices. Weingarten’s opposition was premised on teacher and student safety. During the summer, the Florida Education Association filed a lawsuit seeking to block the state’s reopening plan on the grounds that it “arbitrarily disregards safety.”

But there was little sound reason to believe that schools were particularly unsafe. Children represented a tiny fraction of recorded COVID-19 cases, even in areas with significant outbreaks, and an even tinier share of deaths from the disease.  Research in other countries found that virus transmission among schoolchildren, or between them and staff, was rare.

In New York City, where reopening was especially chaotic, labor representatives negotiated an agreement with Mayor Bill de Blasio to close schools if the city’s COVID-19 test positivity rate reached a seven-day average of more than 3 percent. But that threshold had no scientific justification. De Blasio defended it as a “social contract,” which sounded suspiciously like a way to avoid admitting it was pulled out of thin air.

There was never any attempt to justify the 3 percent trigger with evidence. “We don’t know what the science was behind it,” observes Daniel DiSalvo, a senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute and a professor of political science in the Colin Powell School at the City College of New York. The basic idea, he says, was “let’s make it low.”

Yet in November, as COVID-19 cases once again began to spike in New York, the never-justified standard resulted in the abrupt closure of city schools (a decision that de Blasio later partially reversed). That result made no scientific sense. “If you look at the data, the spread among children and from children is not very big at all,” Fauci noted in November.

Teachers unions were “absolutely central players” in the battle over New York’s schools, says DiSalvo. “The coronavirus has shown a spotlight on the ways in which teachers unions’ interests and kids’ and parents’ interests are not aligned.” A similar misalignment is clear from the behavior of police unions.

Police Jobs vs. Lives

On May 25, Minneapolis police arrested George Floyd, a 46-year-old black man, following a 911 call reporting that he had used a counterfeit $20 bill to buy cigarettes. Less than 20 minutes after police arrived on the scene in response to that call, Floyd was dead.

An officer named Derek Chauvin had kneeled on Floyd’s neck for well over seven minutes, disregarding his repeated complaints that he could not breathe and keeping him pinned for minutes after he fell silent and lost consciousness. Two other officers helped restrain Floyd, while a fourth stood by as Floyd died under Chauvin’s knee. The incident was captured in a shocking cellphone video.

The following day, all four officers were fired. Chauvin was charged with second-degree murder and second-degree manslaughter; his colleagues were charged with aiding and abetting those crimes. Their trial is set to begin in March 2021. In the weeks after Floyd’s death, cities across America saw massive protests against the police brutality that had cost his life.

The four officers’ conduct drew criticism from nearly all quarters. Politicians, pundits, and protesters held up the cops’ brutal indifference as a symbol of bad policing. Chauvin and his fellow officers nonetheless enjoyed a vociferous defense from the local police union.

Bob Kroll, president of the Police Officers Union of Minneapolis, wrote a letter to union members blasting the officers’ dismissal, saying they were “terminated without due process.” There was no mention of whether George Floyd had received due process before he was choked to death on the street. Instead, Kroll complained that the news media were refusing to air Floyd’s “violent criminal history.” He said he was in contact with criminal defense lawyers for the officers and was working “with our labor attorneys to fight for their jobs.”

Chauvin had unceremoniously killed a man accused of using a phony $20 bill. In his last moments, Floyd fought for his life. Kroll and the police union responded by fighting for Chauvin’s job.

More than anything else, police unions exist to defend the employment prerogatives of their members—especially when they perform badly or abuse the public trust. Police may exist to protect the people. But police unions exist to protect the police.

Sometimes, as in Chauvin’s case, this imperative manifests itself in high-profile demonstrations of loyalty to cops whose actions or inactions have proven dangerous or deadly. After Broward County Sheriff’s Deputy Brian Miller was fired for neglect of duty because he hid behind his car while a gunman murdered 17 students at a Parkland, Florida, high school in 2018, the local police union backed a two-year arbitration process that last summer resulted in Miller’s reinstatement with full back pay. The students had lost their lives. Miller had lost his job. But with the union’s support, he got it back, along with his taxpayer-funded annual salary of $138,000.

Sometimes police unions’ protective efforts are less visible. A signature demand of police unions is that their contract negotiations be hidden from public view. In June, following the national outcry over Floyd’s death, Philadelphia Councilmember Katherine Gilmore Richardson sponsored a bill allowing city residents to comment on police contract proposals before they are submitted to the union. The bill, which the city council approved in September, maintained a longtime prohibition of public input on final approval of contracts. “This legislation seeks to mandate public transparency and accountability in a process that has been shrouded in secrecy for too long,” Richardson said.

In October, the local Fraternal Order of Police (FOP) responded with a lawsuit seeking to block the reform. “We had to do something in order to put an end to what they’re doing, demonizing police officers in the city of Philadelphia,” FOP President John McNesby argued at a press conference. Letting the public see and comment on the contract process was akin to “demonizing police officers.” It had to be stopped.

When those contracts do become public, it’s clear why police unions want them shrouded in secrecy. They routinely include provisions that single out police for special treatment, giving them legal protections that no ordinary citizen could expect, much less demand as part of a compensation package.

Those protections became a point of controversy in Louisville, Kentucky, following the March 13, 2020, police shooting of Breonna Taylor, a 26-year-old black woman. City police used a battering ram to knock down Taylor’s door in the middle of the night while serving a search warrant based on the unsubstantiated suspicion that she was participating in a former boyfriend’s drug trafficking operation.

Taylor and her current boyfriend, Kenneth Walker, were in bed at the time. After hearing the tumult at the door, Walker grabbed a handgun and fired once at the intruders, striking an officer in the leg. Walker later said he believed he was defending himself and Taylor against dangerous criminals.

Three officers responded to the shot fired by Walker with a hail of 32 bullets, killing Taylor. The police found no drugs or any other evidence that Taylor was involved in criminal activity.

After Taylor’s death, Louisville’s interim police chief, Robert Schroeder, concluded that Detective Brett Hankison, one of the officers involved in the raid, “displayed an extreme indifference to the value of human life” when he “wantonly and blindly fired 10 rounds” into Taylor’s apartment. Noting that some of those bullets entered a neighboring apartment, Schroeder said Hankison’s recklessness posed a “substantial danger of death and serious injury” to the public.

“I find your conduct a shock to the conscience,” Schroeder wrote in a letter announcing his intent to terminate Hankinson’s employment. “I am alarmed and stunned you used deadly force in this fashion.”

But before he could fire Hankison, Schroeder had to go through the police union. The termination procedures in the police contract guaranteed a “pre-termination hearing” with legal counsel present, a right to make a case for less severe punishment, and a right to appeal to the Police Merit Board, which could overturn the chief’s decision if it decided termination was excessive.

Hankison, who in September was charged with three counts of wanton endangerment, was fired in June 2020. But in stark contrast with the unusually rapid dismissal of the officers involved in Floyd’s killing, it took three months—and a loud public outcry linking Taylor’s death to Floyd’s—to get Hankison off the force. He has filed an appeal to the merit board to be heard following the conclusion of the criminal case.

In the months after Taylor’s killing, meanwhile, the city of Louisville began renegotiating its contract with the police department. Those negotiations provoked an intense debate about reforms intended to mitigate police abuse. The main obstacle? The local police union.

In November, the city council approved a new contract that included additional benefits and multiple protections for police, among them a provision allowing some disciplinary records to be destroyed after specified lengths of time. “What is largely missing from it are just fundamental accountability requirements that allow the department to sufficiently discipline officers who commit misconduct,” Brandon Coan, the most outspoken critic of the police union on the council, told the Louisville Courier-Journal.

Among the provisions the union defended most aggressively: a ban on officer layoffs.

Public-Sector Privilege

More than anything else, what connects police and teachers unions is the determination to guarantee their members’ jobs.

In theory, this emphasis on employment protection represents a contractual safeguard against politically motivated firings, unfair judgments, personal vendettas, or unexpected budget cuts. Public-sector workers, whose salaries are paid with tax dollars, face a different kind of scrutiny than many of their private peers. These protections ostensibly represent an attempt to guarantee fairness in the face of unique pressure.

In practice, however, public-sector unions exert a disproportionate amount of effort defending their worst members—not just the ones whose performance is subpar but the ones who are actively malign. Unions show their unwavering dedication to protecting their members’ jobs by making sure it’s very difficult—sometimes nearly impossible—to fire a union member, no matter what that person has done. It’s not the easy cases where the unions demonstrate the strength of their commitment; it’s the hard ones.

For police, that means violent and otherwise abusive officers, those whose actions have harmed people or cost them their lives. For teachers, it means educators who are worse than incompetent—those who have been accused of abuse, or worse.

In a 2009 story for The New Yorker, journalist Steven Brill explored New York City’s “rubber rooms”—holding pens for hundreds of teachers who had been taken off the job pending disciplinary action or review but were still receiving their full salaries. A school principal quoted in the story said AFT’s Weingarten would “protect a dead body in the classroom.” It didn’t matter what the teachers had done. It mattered that they kept their paychecks.

The following year, the teachers union agreed to a deal that was supposed to eliminate what were euphemistically called “reassignment centers.” But six years later, the New York Post found they were still in use, still holding hundreds of teachers, often for years at a time, who were earning full salaries on the public’s dime to nap and play board games. “They’re just letting me sit here,” one unnamed reassigned teacher told the Post. He had been accused of physically abusing students, which he denied. He said he made about $70,000 a year.

The determination to protect the jobs of poor performers can even trump the desire to increase compensation. More than a decade ago, when Michelle Rhee first became chancellor of the Washington, D.C., school system, she proposed a system in which teachers could choose to weaken seniority and tenure protections in exchange for substantially increased salaries. Essentially, her plan was to reward high performers while making it easier to part ways with those who didn’t pass muster. A union-commissioned poll found that teachers opposed the proposal by a 3–1 ratio. Months later, when Rhee pushed forward with firing teachers found to be ineffective, The New York Times reported that the president of the Washington Teachers’ Union “responded by promising that the union would help teachers use all procedures available to protect their jobs.”

If jobs, regardless of performance, are the first thing unions seek to protect, benefits are the second. Public-sector unions repeatedly have fought for hefty benefits packages, including retirement and health plans, that add considerably to their compensation. And no benefit is more important to public-sector unions than pensions.

Long before the economic meltdown of 2020, public pensions were a huge drag on state budgets. At the beginning of the year, states already carried $1.2 trillion in pension debt.

At times, this enormous fiscal obligation overwhelmed other public priorities—including education and policing. The share of state education funding devoted to pensions doubled between 2001 and 2018, from 7.5 percent to 14.4 percent, according to an April 2020 report from the nonprofit Equable, representing a “hidden cut” to education funding. Those cuts, the report said, tended to affect poorer school districts the most.

Public-sector pensions are often legally protected in ways that make reforms difficult. The details vary by state, but the police retirement plan in Austin, Texas, offers a useful example.

In 2018, the Austin Police Retirement System had about $582 million in liabilities, an increase of more than $175 million from just a year earlier. As a result of this fiscal burden, Moody’s Investors Service downgraded the city’s bond rating, which was apt to increase the city’s borrowing costs. Over the summer, the city council responded by approving a cut of more than $150 million from the police budget. But the city didn’t touch the pension fund, because in Texas it’s constitutionally protected. And even after the budget cuts, pension obligations were projected to continue rising. Effectively, the city chopped spending on day-to-day policing to help offset the cost of continuing to pay officers who were long off the job.

Unthinkable and Intolerable

Public-sector unions have always been controversial. In 1937, President Franklin Roosevelt warned that “the process of collective bargaining, as usually understood, cannot be transplanted into the public service.” Although he was a staunch supporter of private-sector unionism, Roosevelt believed the costs were different in public-sector work. A “strike of public employees,” he said, “manifests nothing less than an intent on their part to obstruct the operations of government until their demands are satisfied. Such action looking toward the paralysis of government by those who have sworn to support it is unthinkable and intolerable.”

At the close of 2020, Roosevelt’s warnings felt especially prophetic. While teachers did not technically go on strike, they explicitly threatened to do so, and in many cities and states educators, backed by unions, successfully argued their way into remote-teaching arrangements that did deep damage to the nation’s youth. In November, teachers in the Washington, D.C., school system staged a “sick-out” that caused city officials to cancel reopening plans for especially needy elementary school students. Because of union opposition, Chancellor Lewis D. Ferebee said, the system simply wouldn’t have enough teachers available to staff the schools.

Police did not officially walk off the job either. But following the Floyd killing, there were multiple reports of “blue flu,” which amounts to a soft strike in which officers call in sick.

In Atlanta, 170 officers called in sick in June after two officers were charged in a shooting. In July, the Los Angeles Times reported that an unsigned letter circulating among officers was encouraging them to “send a clear message” by calling in sick in response to nationwide protests against police abuse. The letter warned that a laundry list of union priorities were threatened. “They succeeded in defunding the police; what do you think is next? Our pay? Our benefits? Our pensions?” the letter said. “You’re God Damn right all those things are in jeopardy now.” Last summer, murders spiked in cities across the country. Although multiple factors were involved, including agitation from the pandemic and associated lockdowns, there was enough speculation that police had intentionally reduced their presence that The Christian Science Monitor published a piece noting the crime spike and wondering if “police, in at least some cases, [had] partially ceded the streets.”

Public opinion also seemed to shift, with clear majorities supporting reform of police unions. According to an August 2020 Cato Institute/YouGov poll, 84 percent of Americans, including majorities of both Democrats and Republicans, opposed police union contracts that require officer misconduct records to be erased after a specified period of time. The poll also found that 62 percent of respondents believed police unions should be prohibited from collectively bargaining over methods used to hold officers accountable for misconduct.

The split on the latter question was more partisan, with Democrats substantially more likely to oppose such contract provisions. A Gallup poll conducted during the summer likewise found that while 89 percent of Democrats said major changes were needed to American policing, just 14 percent of Republicans agreed.

Regarding teachers unions, an August poll from Rasmussen found that 39 percent of respondents thought it was a good thing that most teachers belong to unions, down from 45 percent in 2019. An Education Next survey published in August found that majorities of both Republicans and Democrats supported school choice policies such as giving low-income parents tax credits to pay for private school tuition. But even in the midst of the most visible public education crisis in decades, teachers and local schools remained quite popular, with Democrats substantially more likely to support increased funding for public education.

Teachers unions remain closely linked with the Democratic Party. “Since 1990, the AFT and the [National Education Association] have regularly been among the top 10 contributors to federal electoral campaigns,” according to another Education Next report. It noted that Democrats receive “the vast majority of [the two unions’] hard-money campaign contributions as well as in-kind contributions for get-out-the-vote operations.”

Those partisan differences could help explain why what might have been a moment of bipartisan reflection instead became a moment of retreat to predictable political corners.

Yes, President Donald Trump signed an executive order on police reform in June, just before Sen. Tim Scott (R–S.C.) unveiled a bill that would encourage local departments to ban chokeholds and modestly increase police accountability by creating a national database of misconduct.

And yes, San Francisco Mayor London Breed issued a strongly worded statement slamming teachers for dithering about renaming schools while most of them remained closed. “While many private schools are open today, our public schools have still not yet made a firm plan to open,” she wrote in October. “Parents are frustrated and looking for answers. The achievement gap is widening as our public schools [sic] kids are falling further behind every single day….In the midst of this once in a century challenge, to hear that the District is focusing energy and resources on renaming schools—schools that they haven’t even opened—is offensive.”

But these were half measures at best. Both Trump’s order and Scott’s bill represented minimal efforts, more symbolic than meaningful. Notably, most Republicans remained firmly opposed to making any changes to qualified immunity, a legal doctrine that shields government employees from civil liability even for egregious misconduct. Trump spent the summer tweeting constantly in support of police. In one case, after a Buffalo, New York, police officer was caught on camera pushing a 75-year-old protester to the ground, Trump speculated in a tweet that the elderly gentleman might have been an “ANTIFA provocateur” who faked a hard fall as part of a “setup.”

The first bullet-pointed item in Joe Biden’s education plan was not a program to help students or to reopen closed schools. It was “support our educators by giving them the pay and the dignity they deserve.” Biden’s plan was to pay and praise teachers more. In early December, after he named Connecticut Chief of Schools Miguel A. Cardona secretary of education, Weingarten, the head of the American Federation of Teachers, pointed to Cardona’s former AFT membership and praised his “deep respect for educators and their unions.” Biden’s preferred choice for health and human services secretary, Rhode Island Gov. Gina Raimondo, was initially blocked by unions “because of her record on pension changes,” according to The New York Times. Biden later tapped her for Commerce Secretary, but her work on Rhode Island’s public pension demonstrates the difficulty of even modest reform.

As the state’s treasurer in the early 2010s, Raimondo, a Rhodes scholar who studied economics at Harvard, spearheaded a series of changes to the state’s pension program, cutting cost-of-living adjustments for retirees and moving current workers to a hybrid pension/savings plan. “A big part of the reason we were not having enough money for public buses and playgrounds and libraries and after-school sports is because the pension liability was gobbling up an increasingly large percent of the budget,” she told Roll Call in 2016.

The state’s finances improved, but in 2016 its public pensions were still underfunded, covering 57 percent of total obligations for teachers and 59 percent for other public workers (up from 49 percent in 2010). A coalition of public employees neverthe-less sued to block Raimondo’s overhaul, eventually settling out of court. By 2019, the share of obligations covered by the state’s pension funds had shrunk to 55 percent for teachers and 53 percent for other employees.

The lesson for public-sector reformers is clear: Even relatively small changes are likely to provoke significant political pushback.

Institutional Failure

What do schools and police represent? What is their role in society? They are publicly funded programs, and they are employers. But they are also institutions that represent broad-based public values: the care and education of children; public safety and order. Yet police and teachers unions have consistently treated these institutions as employment fiefdoms—as entitlements for a class of privileged workers—rather than public trusts. They have behaved in ways contrary to the values those institutions are intended to uphold.

In the process, they have failed the public they are supposed to serve. In Roosevelt’s words, they have contributed to “the paralysis of government.”

Yet politically, that paralysis turned out to be neither unthinkable nor intolerable. Instead, it was largely business as usual, with public-sector unions proceeding as they always have and, without reform, always will. The multiple calamities of 2020 did not cause public-sector unions to fail. They showed us all the ways they already had.

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In 2020, Teachers Unions and Police Unions Showed Their True Colors

publicsector1

From the spread of COVID-19 and the wave of state-imposed closures that followed to the police killings of George Floyd and Breonna Taylor and the unrest that ensued, 2020 was a year in which American institutions flailed and failed. And few failures were bigger or more apparent than those of public-sector unions.

By pushing to keep schools closed even as evidence mounted that in-person classes were relatively low-risk and remote learning was ineffective, teachers unions failed students and parents. By pushing to protect bad cops in the wake of multiple scandals, police unions failed the public they were sworn to protect. And in the process, America got a glimpse of what public-sector unions, regardless of the profession they represent, really do.

Unions that represent government employees seek to maintain an image of themselves as protectors of common institutions that can be relied upon to serve the public interest. But the upheavals of 2020 made clear that the priority for public-sector unions is the opposite: to protect the interests of taxpayer-funded employees, especially when those interests diverge from those of the public they nominally serve.

Yet the politics of public-sector unions have left reforms in limbo. Culturally and politically, police have long been linked with the American right. Teachers, in contrast, are a core constituency of the Democratic Party and some of its loudest supporters and biggest donors.

Public-sector union reform should be a bipartisan issue. Instead, it has stalled or inched along, with each side protect-ing its own.

Teachers vs. Children and Parents

Of all the missteps and public policy failures of 2020, few were more egregious than the failure to reopen public schools for young children. In the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic, schools were shuttered across the nation out of fear that they would become vectors of viral spread. But by mid-summer, evidence from other countries that had reopened their schools, combined with data on how often and how severely children contract the disease, pointed to a clear conclusion: Schools—especially for younger students—were relatively safe. “School districts should prioritize reopening schools full time, especially for grades K-5 and students with special needs,” declared a press release describing a July report from the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine.

Some states, many with Republican governors, chose to bring children back to classrooms in some fashion. But others did not, preferring hastily cobbled-together forms of virtual education. According to one tracker, 62 percent of public schools began the fall semester online only. The dire effects were plain to see. Young children of all demographics fared badly in virtual school, unable to focus effectively on screen-based education from home. The negative effects were most pronounced among poor and minority students, who often lacked consistent access to computers or internet connections and whose chaotic home lives often made learning even more difficult.

A November report from the NWEA, a nonprofit education research organization, examined test scores from more than 4.4 million students and found that kids in third to eighth grade performed 5–10 points worse, on average, than a year prior. Black and Hispanic students, as well as those who attended schools in low-income areas, saw significant declines in reading test scores. The analysis concluded that “the impacts of COVID-19 on achievement for the most vulnerable students may be underestimated.”

The decision to close schools also hurt the careers of working mothers. By September 2020, about 1.1 million adults had dropped out of the U.S. workforce; 865,000 were women, according to the National Women’s Law Center.

There was little good-faith dispute about the merits of in-person instruction, the consequences of closure, and the safety of reopening. Although many prominent public health experts initially were cautious, by fall even they had come around. “The default position should be to try as best as possible, within reason, to keep the children in school, to get them back to school,” said Anthony Fauci, a White House health adviser and the longtime director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, in November.

The decision to keep so many schools closed was egregious because it was avoidable. It was egregious because its consequences were easy to predict. And it was egregious because it was largely the product of an organized fear campaign by a self-righteous, self-interested political faction that has for years been pursuing its own interests in direct opposition to the betterment of the families and children it is supposed to serve.

Across the country, teachers unions did everything they could to stop reopening. In July, American Federation of Teachers (AFT) President Randi Weingarten threatened “protests,” “grievances or lawsuits,” and even “safety strikes.” The following month in Chicago, Mayor Lori Lightfoot reversed a plan to partially reopen schools two days after the Chicago Teachers Union—which went on strike in 2019—marched against resuming in-person instruction.

The unions’ rhetoric emphasized the question of whether reopening schools was safe. Teachers in Washington, D.C., lined up body bags outside school system offices. Weingarten’s opposition was premised on teacher and student safety. During the summer, the Florida Education Association filed a lawsuit seeking to block the state’s reopening plan on the grounds that it “arbitrarily disregards safety.”

But there was little sound reason to believe that schools were particularly unsafe. Children represented a tiny fraction of recorded COVID-19 cases, even in areas with significant outbreaks, and an even tinier share of deaths from the disease.  Research in other countries found that virus transmission among schoolchildren, or between them and staff, was rare.

In New York City, where reopening was especially chaotic, labor representatives negotiated an agreement with Mayor Bill de Blasio to close schools if the city’s COVID-19 test positivity rate reached a seven-day average of more than 3 percent. But that threshold had no scientific justification. De Blasio defended it as a “social contract,” which sounded suspiciously like a way to avoid admitting it was pulled out of thin air.

There was never any attempt to justify the 3 percent trigger with evidence. “We don’t know what the science was behind it,” observes Daniel DiSalvo, a senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute and a professor of political science in the Colin Powell School at the City College of New York. The basic idea, he says, was “let’s make it low.”

Yet in November, as COVID-19 cases once again began to spike in New York, the never-justified standard resulted in the abrupt closure of city schools (a decision that de Blasio later partially reversed). That result made no scientific sense. “If you look at the data, the spread among children and from children is not very big at all,” Fauci noted in November.

Teachers unions were “absolutely central players” in the battle over New York’s schools, says DiSalvo. “The coronavirus has shown a spotlight on the ways in which teachers unions’ interests and kids’ and parents’ interests are not aligned.” A similar misalignment is clear from the behavior of police unions.

Police Jobs vs. Lives

On May 25, Minneapolis police arrested George Floyd, a 46-year-old black man, following a 911 call reporting that he had used a counterfeit $20 bill to buy cigarettes. Less than 20 minutes after police arrived on the scene in response to that call, Floyd was dead.

An officer named Derek Chauvin had kneeled on Floyd’s neck for well over seven minutes, disregarding his repeated complaints that he could not breathe and keeping him pinned for minutes after he fell silent and lost consciousness. Two other officers helped restrain Floyd, while a fourth stood by as Floyd died under Chauvin’s knee. The incident was captured in a shocking cellphone video.

The following day, all four officers were fired. Chauvin was charged with second-degree murder and second-degree manslaughter; his colleagues were charged with aiding and abetting those crimes. Their trial is set to begin in March 2021. In the weeks after Floyd’s death, cities across America saw massive protests against the police brutality that had cost his life.

The four officers’ conduct drew criticism from nearly all quarters. Politicians, pundits, and protesters held up the cops’ brutal indifference as a symbol of bad policing. Chauvin and his fellow officers nonetheless enjoyed a vociferous defense from the local police union.

Bob Kroll, president of the Police Officers Union of Minneapolis, wrote a letter to union members blasting the officers’ dismissal, saying they were “terminated without due process.” There was no mention of whether George Floyd had received due process before he was choked to death on the street. Instead, Kroll complained that the news media were refusing to air Floyd’s “violent criminal history.” He said he was in contact with criminal defense lawyers for the officers and was working “with our labor attorneys to fight for their jobs.”

Chauvin had unceremoniously killed a man accused of using a phony $20 bill. In his last moments, Floyd fought for his life. Kroll and the police union responded by fighting for Chauvin’s job.

More than anything else, police unions exist to defend the employment prerogatives of their members—especially when they perform badly or abuse the public trust. Police may exist to protect the people. But police unions exist to protect the police.

Sometimes, as in Chauvin’s case, this imperative manifests itself in high-profile demonstrations of loyalty to cops whose actions or inactions have proven dangerous or deadly. After Broward County Sheriff’s Deputy Brian Miller was fired for neglect of duty because he hid behind his car while a gunman murdered 17 students at a Parkland, Florida, high school in 2018, the local police union backed a two-year arbitration process that last summer resulted in Miller’s reinstatement with full back pay. The students had lost their lives. Miller had lost his job. But with the union’s support, he got it back, along with his taxpayer-funded annual salary of $138,000.

Sometimes police unions’ protective efforts are less visible. A signature demand of police unions is that their contract negotiations be hidden from public view. In June, following the national outcry over Floyd’s death, Philadelphia Councilmember Katherine Gilmore Richardson sponsored a bill allowing city residents to comment on police contract proposals before they are submitted to the union. The bill, which the city council approved in September, maintained a longtime prohibition of public input on final approval of contracts. “This legislation seeks to mandate public transparency and accountability in a process that has been shrouded in secrecy for too long,” Richardson said.

In October, the local Fraternal Order of Police (FOP) responded with a lawsuit seeking to block the reform. “We had to do something in order to put an end to what they’re doing, demonizing police officers in the city of Philadelphia,” FOP President John McNesby argued at a press conference. Letting the public see and comment on the contract process was akin to “demonizing police officers.” It had to be stopped.

When those contracts do become public, it’s clear why police unions want them shrouded in secrecy. They routinely include provisions that single out police for special treatment, giving them legal protections that no ordinary citizen could expect, much less demand as part of a compensation package.

Those protections became a point of controversy in Louisville, Kentucky, following the March 13, 2020, police shooting of Breonna Taylor, a 26-year-old black woman. City police used a battering ram to knock down Taylor’s door in the middle of the night while serving a search warrant based on the unsubstantiated suspicion that she was participating in a former boyfriend’s drug trafficking operation.

Taylor and her current boyfriend, Kenneth Walker, were in bed at the time. After hearing the tumult at the door, Walker grabbed a handgun and fired once at the intruders, striking an officer in the leg. Walker later said he believed he was defending himself and Taylor against dangerous criminals.

Three officers responded to the shot fired by Walker with a hail of 32 bullets, killing Taylor. The police found no drugs or any other evidence that Taylor was involved in criminal activity.

After Taylor’s death, Louisville’s interim police chief, Robert Schroeder, concluded that Detective Brett Hankison, one of the officers involved in the raid, “displayed an extreme indifference to the value of human life” when he “wantonly and blindly fired 10 rounds” into Taylor’s apartment. Noting that some of those bullets entered a neighboring apartment, Schroeder said Hankison’s recklessness posed a “substantial danger of death and serious injury” to the public.

“I find your conduct a shock to the conscience,” Schroeder wrote in a letter announcing his intent to terminate Hankinson’s employment. “I am alarmed and stunned you used deadly force in this fashion.”

But before he could fire Hankison, Schroeder had to go through the police union. The termination procedures in the police contract guaranteed a “pre-termination hearing” with legal counsel present, a right to make a case for less severe punishment, and a right to appeal to the Police Merit Board, which could overturn the chief’s decision if it decided termination was excessive.

Hankison, who in September was charged with three counts of wanton endangerment, was fired in June 2020. But in stark contrast with the unusually rapid dismissal of the officers involved in Floyd’s killing, it took three months—and a loud public outcry linking Taylor’s death to Floyd’s—to get Hankison off the force. He has filed an appeal to the merit board to be heard following the conclusion of the criminal case.

In the months after Taylor’s killing, meanwhile, the city of Louisville began renegotiating its contract with the police department. Those negotiations provoked an intense debate about reforms intended to mitigate police abuse. The main obstacle? The local police union.

In November, the city council approved a new contract that included additional benefits and multiple protections for police, among them a provision allowing some disciplinary records to be destroyed after specified lengths of time. “What is largely missing from it are just fundamental accountability requirements that allow the department to sufficiently discipline officers who commit misconduct,” Brandon Coan, the most outspoken critic of the police union on the council, told the Louisville Courier-Journal.

Among the provisions the union defended most aggressively: a ban on officer layoffs.

Public-Sector Privilege

More than anything else, what connects police and teachers unions is the determination to guarantee their members’ jobs.

In theory, this emphasis on employment protection represents a contractual safeguard against politically motivated firings, unfair judgments, personal vendettas, or unexpected budget cuts. Public-sector workers, whose salaries are paid with tax dollars, face a different kind of scrutiny than many of their private peers. These protections ostensibly represent an attempt to guarantee fairness in the face of unique pressure.

In practice, however, public-sector unions exert a disproportionate amount of effort defending their worst members—not just the ones whose performance is subpar but the ones who are actively malign. Unions show their unwavering dedication to protecting their members’ jobs by making sure it’s very difficult—sometimes nearly impossible—to fire a union member, no matter what that person has done. It’s not the easy cases where the unions demonstrate the strength of their commitment; it’s the hard ones.

For police, that means violent and otherwise abusive officers, those whose actions have harmed people or cost them their lives. For teachers, it means educators who are worse than incompetent—those who have been accused of abuse, or worse.

In a 2009 story for The New Yorker, journalist Steven Brill explored New York City’s “rubber rooms”—holding pens for hundreds of teachers who had been taken off the job pending disciplinary action or review but were still receiving their full salaries. A school principal quoted in the story said AFT’s Weingarten would “protect a dead body in the classroom.” It didn’t matter what the teachers had done. It mattered that they kept their paychecks.

The following year, the teachers union agreed to a deal that was supposed to eliminate what were euphemistically called “reassignment centers.” But six years later, the New York Post found they were still in use, still holding hundreds of teachers, often for years at a time, who were earning full salaries on the public’s dime to nap and play board games. “They’re just letting me sit here,” one unnamed reassigned teacher told the Post. He had been accused of physically abusing students, which he denied. He said he made about $70,000 a year.

The determination to protect the jobs of poor performers can even trump the desire to increase compensation. More than a decade ago, when Michelle Rhee first became chancellor of the Washington, D.C., school system, she proposed a system in which teachers could choose to weaken seniority and tenure protections in exchange for substantially increased salaries. Essentially, her plan was to reward high performers while making it easier to part ways with those who didn’t pass muster. A union-commissioned poll found that teachers opposed the proposal by a 3–1 ratio. Months later, when Rhee pushed forward with firing teachers found to be ineffective, The New York Times reported that the president of the Washington Teachers’ Union “responded by promising that the union would help teachers use all procedures available to protect their jobs.”

If jobs, regardless of performance, are the first thing unions seek to protect, benefits are the second. Public-sector unions repeatedly have fought for hefty benefits packages, including retirement and health plans, that add considerably to their compensation. And no benefit is more important to public-sector unions than pensions.

Long before the economic meltdown of 2020, public pensions were a huge drag on state budgets. At the beginning of the year, states already carried $1.2 trillion in pension debt.

At times, this enormous fiscal obligation overwhelmed other public priorities—including education and policing. The share of state education funding devoted to pensions doubled between 2001 and 2018, from 7.5 percent to 14.4 percent, according to an April 2020 report from the nonprofit Equable, representing a “hidden cut” to education funding. Those cuts, the report said, tended to affect poorer school districts the most.

Public-sector pensions are often legally protected in ways that make reforms difficult. The details vary by state, but the police retirement plan in Austin, Texas, offers a useful example.

In 2018, the Austin Police Retirement System had about $582 million in liabilities, an increase of more than $175 million from just a year earlier. As a result of this fiscal burden, Moody’s Investors Service downgraded the city’s bond rating, which was apt to increase the city’s borrowing costs. Over the summer, the city council responded by approving a cut of more than $150 million from the police budget. But the city didn’t touch the pension fund, because in Texas it’s constitutionally protected. And even after the budget cuts, pension obligations were projected to continue rising. Effectively, the city chopped spending on day-to-day policing to help offset the cost of continuing to pay officers who were long off the job.

Unthinkable and Intolerable

Public-sector unions have always been controversial. In 1937, President Franklin Roosevelt warned that “the process of collective bargaining, as usually understood, cannot be transplanted into the public service.” Although he was a staunch supporter of private-sector unionism, Roosevelt believed the costs were different in public-sector work. A “strike of public employees,” he said, “manifests nothing less than an intent on their part to obstruct the operations of government until their demands are satisfied. Such action looking toward the paralysis of government by those who have sworn to support it is unthinkable and intolerable.”

At the close of 2020, Roosevelt’s warnings felt especially prophetic. While teachers did not technically go on strike, they explicitly threatened to do so, and in many cities and states educators, backed by unions, successfully argued their way into remote-teaching arrangements that did deep damage to the nation’s youth. In November, teachers in the Washington, D.C., school system staged a “sick-out” that caused city officials to cancel reopening plans for especially needy elementary school students. Because of union opposition, Chancellor Lewis D. Ferebee said, the system simply wouldn’t have enough teachers available to staff the schools.

Police did not officially walk off the job either. But following the Floyd killing, there were multiple reports of “blue flu,” which amounts to a soft strike in which officers call in sick.

In Atlanta, 170 officers called in sick in June after two officers were charged in a shooting. In July, the Los Angeles Times reported that an unsigned letter circulating among officers was encouraging them to “send a clear message” by calling in sick in response to nationwide protests against police abuse. The letter warned that a laundry list of union priorities were threatened. “They succeeded in defunding the police; what do you think is next? Our pay? Our benefits? Our pensions?” the letter said. “You’re God Damn right all those things are in jeopardy now.” Last summer, murders spiked in cities across the country. Although multiple factors were involved, including agitation from the pandemic and associated lockdowns, there was enough speculation that police had intentionally reduced their presence that The Christian Science Monitor published a piece noting the crime spike and wondering if “police, in at least some cases, [had] partially ceded the streets.”

Public opinion also seemed to shift, with clear majorities supporting reform of police unions. According to an August 2020 Cato Institute/YouGov poll, 84 percent of Americans, including majorities of both Democrats and Republicans, opposed police union contracts that require officer misconduct records to be erased after a specified period of time. The poll also found that 62 percent of respondents believed police unions should be prohibited from collectively bargaining over methods used to hold officers accountable for misconduct.

The split on the latter question was more partisan, with Democrats substantially more likely to oppose such contract provisions. A Gallup poll conducted during the summer likewise found that while 89 percent of Democrats said major changes were needed to American policing, just 14 percent of Republicans agreed.

Regarding teachers unions, an August poll from Rasmussen found that 39 percent of respondents thought it was a good thing that most teachers belong to unions, down from 45 percent in 2019. An Education Next survey published in August found that majorities of both Republicans and Democrats supported school choice policies such as giving low-income parents tax credits to pay for private school tuition. But even in the midst of the most visible public education crisis in decades, teachers and local schools remained quite popular, with Democrats substantially more likely to support increased funding for public education.

Teachers unions remain closely linked with the Democratic Party. “Since 1990, the AFT and the [National Education Association] have regularly been among the top 10 contributors to federal electoral campaigns,” according to another Education Next report. It noted that Democrats receive “the vast majority of [the two unions’] hard-money campaign contributions as well as in-kind contributions for get-out-the-vote operations.”

Those partisan differences could help explain why what might have been a moment of bipartisan reflection instead became a moment of retreat to predictable political corners.

Yes, President Donald Trump signed an executive order on police reform in June, just before Sen. Tim Scott (R–S.C.) unveiled a bill that would encourage local departments to ban chokeholds and modestly increase police accountability by creating a national database of misconduct.

And yes, San Francisco Mayor London Breed issued a strongly worded statement slamming teachers for dithering about renaming schools while most of them remained closed. “While many private schools are open today, our public schools have still not yet made a firm plan to open,” she wrote in October. “Parents are frustrated and looking for answers. The achievement gap is widening as our public schools [sic] kids are falling further behind every single day….In the midst of this once in a century challenge, to hear that the District is focusing energy and resources on renaming schools—schools that they haven’t even opened—is offensive.”

But these were half measures at best. Both Trump’s order and Scott’s bill represented minimal efforts, more symbolic than meaningful. Notably, most Republicans remained firmly opposed to making any changes to qualified immunity, a legal doctrine that shields government employees from civil liability even for egregious misconduct. Trump spent the summer tweeting constantly in support of police. In one case, after a Buffalo, New York, police officer was caught on camera pushing a 75-year-old protester to the ground, Trump speculated in a tweet that the elderly gentleman might have been an “ANTIFA provocateur” who faked a hard fall as part of a “setup.”

The first bullet-pointed item in Joe Biden’s education plan was not a program to help students or to reopen closed schools. It was “support our educators by giving them the pay and the dignity they deserve.” Biden’s plan was to pay and praise teachers more. In early December, after he named Connecticut Chief of Schools Miguel A. Cardona secretary of education, Weingarten, the head of the American Federation of Teachers, pointed to Cardona’s former AFT membership and praised his “deep respect for educators and their unions.” Biden’s preferred choice for health and human services secretary, Rhode Island Gov. Gina Raimondo, was initially blocked by unions “because of her record on pension changes,” according to The New York Times. Biden later tapped her for Commerce Secretary, but her work on Rhode Island’s public pension demonstrates the difficulty of even modest reform.

As the state’s treasurer in the early 2010s, Raimondo, a Rhodes scholar who studied economics at Harvard, spearheaded a series of changes to the state’s pension program, cutting cost-of-living adjustments for retirees and moving current workers to a hybrid pension/savings plan. “A big part of the reason we were not having enough money for public buses and playgrounds and libraries and after-school sports is because the pension liability was gobbling up an increasingly large percent of the budget,” she told Roll Call in 2016.

The state’s finances improved, but in 2016 its public pensions were still underfunded, covering 57 percent of total obligations for teachers and 59 percent for other public workers (up from 49 percent in 2010). A coalition of public employees neverthe-less sued to block Raimondo’s overhaul, eventually settling out of court. By 2019, the share of obligations covered by the state’s pension funds had shrunk to 55 percent for teachers and 53 percent for other employees.

The lesson for public-sector reformers is clear: Even relatively small changes are likely to provoke significant political pushback.

Institutional Failure

What do schools and police represent? What is their role in society? They are publicly funded programs, and they are employers. But they are also institutions that represent broad-based public values: the care and education of children; public safety and order. Yet police and teachers unions have consistently treated these institutions as employment fiefdoms—as entitlements for a class of privileged workers—rather than public trusts. They have behaved in ways contrary to the values those institutions are intended to uphold.

In the process, they have failed the public they are supposed to serve. In Roosevelt’s words, they have contributed to “the paralysis of government.”

Yet politically, that paralysis turned out to be neither unthinkable nor intolerable. Instead, it was largely business as usual, with public-sector unions proceeding as they always have and, without reform, always will. The multiple calamities of 2020 did not cause public-sector unions to fail. They showed us all the ways they already had.

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Klaus Schwab’s “Magic Money Tree” Prediction Is Coming True

Klaus Schwab’s “Magic Money Tree” Prediction Is Coming True

Authored by Joseph Jankowski via PlanetFreeWill.news,

If you knew where the tree that grew money from its branches settled, wouldn’t you want to shake it? Of course you would. You’d in fact, want to shake it as often as you could.

Comparing central bank monetary policy to a money tree isn’t a perfect analogy but to someone with little knowledge of the consequences of printing too much currency and going too far into debt, the difference between “quantitative easing” and a magic tree is nil.

Reports are now surfacing showing that voters are becoming upset that their elected representatives may not send out the campaigned promise of a direct payment of $2,000.

When announcing his $1.9 trillion “stimulus” package, Biden skimped on his vowed $2k payment with a new promise of $1,400 which would “top off” the $600 sent to Americans under President Trump.

“If you send Jon and the reverend to Washington, those $2,000 checks will go out the door, restoring hope and decency for so many people who are struggling right now,” Biden said at a rally for Senators Raphael Warnock and Jon Ossoff.

Both Warnock and Ossoff made it a point to make the promise of $2,000 payments a part of their bid to obtain votes from the people of Georgia. Ossoff, in particular, often used his lip service to the payment to attack his opponent, David Perdue, in the run-off race.

Rogelio Linares, an Atlanta native and Democratic canvasser during the runoff elections, told Mediaite that he feels “like shit” over the fact that the next stimulus payment may not be as large as he was promised and called it “a betrayal of the working class.”

“I was on the ground and I knocked over 1,000 doors,” he said. “At the doors, I was literally telling people, ‘$2K checks, you can rely on this.’ I’m a man of principle and morals and I feel like shit. I lied to them. I was lying to them the whole time. I was lying to people that were relying on this. At the time I didn’t know it was a lie. But that was not the reality.”

“This is pretty much a betrayal of the working class … I know people are pissed off about it,” he added.

Another Georgia voter, Justin Wade from Tucker, says that it is a “bad sign” that those elected in the state do not appear to be willing to follow through on the promised welfare.

“Warnock, Ossoff,  Kamala, and others have all pushed for $2,000 checks, but none of them have called on Biden to push for $2,000 checks in addition to the $600 checks,” he told Mediaite. “Considering the Democrats control Congress and the presidency, they could’ve pushed for more if they wanted to. This is a bad sign for how they will govern for the next four years.”

We also saw an ugly form of discontent over the lack of congress’ ability to provide stimulus payments when the homes of Nancy Pelosi and Mitch McConnell were vandalized by people who made it clear that once you shake the money tree for the plebs, it becomes a light bulb moment for them, signaling political pressure (or intimidation) can get you paid.

Vandals spray paint “Where’s my money” on McConnell’s front door

Pelosi’s home hit by vandals

Everything laid out above is a consequence of the collaboration between central banks and governments to take care of citizens with their abilities to print money and push the worry of deficits off into the future.

In his book titled, COVID-19: The Great Reset (Published July 2020), World Economic Forum globalist Klaus Schwab predicted that the effects of the initial stimulus efforts by governments to keep both individuals and business afloat in the aftermath of the unprecedented lockdowns would create a scenario where the public would keep elected officials under “fierce and relentless” pressure to continue the schemes of helicopter money well into the future.

For those unfamiliar with Schwab, he is the founder of the World Economic Forum that is at the forefront of pushing the idea of a “great reset” in the face of the Covid-19 pandemic. Schwab is now best known by the common folk as the guy who said the world will “never” go back to normal because of Covid and as the creep who envisions a technocracy under which people are subjected to sci-fi level police state surveillance.

“The idea is appealing and realizable, but it contains an issue of social expectations and political control,” Schwab says in his book about printing money and giving it to the public.

“Once citizens realize that money can be found on a “magic money tree,” elected politicians will be under fierce and relentless public pressure to create more and more, which is when the issue of inflation kicks in.”

He also writes:

It is now conceivable that, in the future, government will try to wield its influence over central banks to finance major public projects, such as an infrastructure or green investment fund. Similarly, the precept that government can intervene to preserve workers’ jobs or incomes and protect companies from bankruptcy may endure after these policies come to an end. It is likely that public and political pressure to maintain such schemes will persist, even when the situation improves.

With anger, discontent, and the need for more being the visible result – at least in the United States – of politicians failing to feed the public money from the “magic money tree,” Schwab’s thoughts are coming to life.

It certainly wasn’t the hardest thing to predict, that people would have an ‘aha’ moment after getting a taste of the money printer’s money. It was a line that was crossed, and a political decision that will likely be incredibly hard to reverse course on.

As we have written about before, the introduction of stimulus payments since March 2020 has looked a lot like a Universal Basic Income scheme. And with an economic situation so bad due to lockdowns, it is likely to continue well into the future to keep the public content with the status quo.

There is also absolutely no reason to believe that the federal government will stop going into debt and having that debt monetized by the Federal Reserve anytime soon. Just take it from Biden’s likely Treasury Secretary and former central banker, Janet Yellen, who said at her confirmation hearing that congress should “act big” on relief spending and worry about debt LATER.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has also stated that the Fed would continue to buy $120 billion in bonds each month until the economy made “substantial further progress” toward the Fed’s goals of maximum employment.

If you’ve been keeping up with the official unemployment numbers, you understand Powell means that the Fed’s economic interventions aren’t going to end for some time.

And as Schwab further notes in his book, COVID-19: The Great Reset, with interest rates at near zero, the Federal Reserve is likely to take on monetizing government debt rather than the classical move of bringing interest rates lower or negative as a means of “stimulating” the economy.

Ben Franklin had a quote that everyone should keep in the back of their head …

“When the people find that they can vote themselves money that will herald the end of the republic.”

The fact that Schwab is being proven right on his “magic money tree” prediction leads one to wonder: what else will he be right about in the near future? Scary thought …

Tyler Durden
Sun, 01/24/2021 – 07:00

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2Y8NrqH Tyler Durden

Miracles and Magic

book2

“We can see no easy origin to magic,” Chris Gosden writes in Magic—A History, “because it has always been with us.” Every culture that we know of has had magical beliefs and practices. Sometimes, as with divination or astrology, those practices aim to reveal hidden truths; sometimes, as with spells and curses, they aim to shape the world.

Gosden is an archaeologist, so his book takes us back thousands of years. But it extends into the present too, challenging the idea that to be modern is to disbelieve in magic. Most modern Americans may not believe in actual sorcery, but as many as three-quarters believe in some aspect of the paranormal. And if we define magic broadly enough to include a belief in luck—well, more than half the country buys lottery tickets.

Indeed, the more “modern” we are, the stronger the pull of magic can get. In the wake of the Industrial Revolution, Europe saw various revivals of folk customs, including pagan beliefs. This was reflected in high as well as low culture—Bellini’s Norma is set among druids in Gaul. In Britain, middle-class counterculturalists of the 1890s were joining occult societies such as the Hermetic Order of the Golden Dawn, swapping business suits for “Egyptian” costumes and coded rituals. As rail travel allowed Stonehenge and other ancient sites to draw new visitors, the tourists included neopagans trying to claim continuity with the druids.

Such continuity is largely imagined or affected. (The “Ancient” Druid Order was founded in 1909.) Our understanding of what was really practiced a thousand years before Christ is necessarily hazy. Gosden thinks Stonehenge probably started as a cremation cemetery. But the site was redeveloped over centuries, so that by the time it was last worked on, “any memory of the original builders and their intentions would have been long lost.” Nonetheless, people turn to the stones for insight to our ancestors’ understandings of the world—and to seek proof of magical ideas, such as ley lines (lines allegedly meant to mark “Earth energies,” an idea serious scholars regard as nonsense).

The desire to know one’s fortune seems to be an instinctive human urge, and we have records of divination and oracles in the classical world. Haruspices would examine the entrails of animals to foretell the future. The first known horoscope was cast in 410 BCE. Astrologers and soothsayers influenced major events, with leaders looking to omens while deciding battle plans or alliances. The first Chinese emperor, Qin Shi Huang, used astrology and believed in immortality. Alexander the Great regularly visited oracles to guide his ambitions—and his death was supposedly foretold by Babylonian astrologers.

Alexander, like many of his period, didn’t draw a line between his religion and that of others. On his journeys, he would visit the temples of whatever gods the locals worshipped. As the boundaries of different faiths emerged, the idea of miracles still complicated the relationship (and indeed blurred the distinction) between magic and religion. In the monotheistic tradition, prophets and later saints were believed to perform miracles. Converts to Christianity often brought with them their own folk beliefs, which they held in tandem with their new faith.

Though the Bible condemned the occult, magical beliefs persisted and indeed grew with Christianity in Europe. Medieval magic seekers would steal the Communion host or holy water to use in casting spells. The power of religion was something they sought to harness for pagan ends. Clergymen often tolerated, and sometimes even participated in, such magical practices.

“Magic had an ambiguous, close, dangerous but productive relationship with Christianity,” Gosden suggests. “Where miracles stopped and magic started was always contentious, the role of the priest was never straightforward, and the conjuring of demons or angels combined Christian and ancient thought with contemporary practices.” Some forms of passive magic, such as horoscope reading, were tolerated. But active magic—casting spells—was potentially heretical and criminal.

That didn’t stop people from trying to use magic in personal ways. Curses have been popular for millennia. It was probably five minutes after hominids first developed words that someone said, “I wish you’d drop dead.” That someone probably wanted that wish to have some force. What’s the point of spiritual power if it can’t be directed at those who have wronged you? The afterlife sounds nice, but most of us want more immediate rewards.

Indeed, curse making seems to be one of the most widespread forms of magic belief. In many cultures, a particular person would be tasked with writing or casting the curse: “Writing a curse required a four-fold relationship,” Gosden explains, “comprising the client who commissioned the curse, the specialist who composed the curse, often drawing on established formulae, the god (or sometimes the spirit of a dead person) who enforced the curse and the victim who suffered from the curse. The causal agents behind the curse were either the gods (who themselves could not be bound for any length of time) or the unburied dead, angrily roaming the world hoping for mischief.” In some places, a middleman was not necessary: Evidence from post-Roman Britain suggests that people composed their own curses there.

You might assume that magical beliefs fell away with the scientific revolution, yet Isaac Newton himself was a firm believer in alchemy. At the same time, in the wider world, witch hunts were taking place. Europe’s witch hunts were part of the great social upheaval of the Reformation, and Gosden suggests it is no accident that many of the accusations of witchcraft were cross-denominational. Counter-Reformation Germany had a higher rate of witch executions than the rest of Europe, and witch trials were more common in places with religious competition, either between Catholics and Protestants or between different Protestant denominations. Early Modern Christians believed magic was not just real but real enough to be a threat.

Like all mass panics, the witch fever eventually faded. But the fear of witches cast a long shadow. The last woman in Britain to be imprisoned under the Witchcraft Act of 1735 was Helen Duncan, a Scottish medium, in 1944.

The 20th century brought its own developments in magic, such as the creation of Wicca. It also brought a new wave of scammers and a brisk market in table tappers and fake mediums, offering false hope to grieving families after the First World War. Our desire to control events through supernatural means has not faded: Moderns pray for loved ones, and curses persist in Mediterranean cultures and other parts of the world.

Since the 1960s, Westerners have had their pick of different cultures’ magical beliefs, from Carlos Castaneda to reiki, and “spiritual but not religious” has become a common self-description. Globalization and immigration have also brought exchanges in magical cultures. A household may have a horseshoe over the door, a nazar hanging in the window, and furniture arranged according to the principles of feng shui. The magical side of older religions has also been revived. Gosden notes that Kabbalah, the Jewish mystical tradition, “is most famous when practised by non-Jewish celebrities; shorn of almost all its cultural context, it is truly a magic for the modern age.”

“Magic today is not a fossil remnant of old beliefs but always exists as part of a triple helix with religion and science,” Gosden concludes. Especially in times of crisis, we look for any way to control our fate. The pandemic has produced new magical coronavirus remedies, from red soap in Sri Lanka to cocaine in France to violet oil on the anus in Iran. The human desire to believe has never faded.

Magic—A History: From Alchemy to Witchcraft, From the Ice Age to the Present, by Chris Gosden, Farrar, Straus and Giroux, 512 pages, $30

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Miracles and Magic

book2

“We can see no easy origin to magic,” Chris Gosden writes in Magic—A History, “because it has always been with us.” Every culture that we know of has had magical beliefs and practices. Sometimes, as with divination or astrology, those practices aim to reveal hidden truths; sometimes, as with spells and curses, they aim to shape the world.

Gosden is an archaeologist, so his book takes us back thousands of years. But it extends into the present too, challenging the idea that to be modern is to disbelieve in magic. Most modern Americans may not believe in actual sorcery, but as many as three-quarters believe in some aspect of the paranormal. And if we define magic broadly enough to include a belief in luck—well, more than half the country buys lottery tickets.

Indeed, the more “modern” we are, the stronger the pull of magic can get. In the wake of the Industrial Revolution, Europe saw various revivals of folk customs, including pagan beliefs. This was reflected in high as well as low culture—Bellini’s Norma is set among druids in Gaul. In Britain, middle-class counterculturalists of the 1890s were joining occult societies such as the Hermetic Order of the Golden Dawn, swapping business suits for “Egyptian” costumes and coded rituals. As rail travel allowed Stonehenge and other ancient sites to draw new visitors, the tourists included neopagans trying to claim continuity with the druids.

Such continuity is largely imagined or affected. (The “Ancient” Druid Order was founded in 1909.) Our understanding of what was really practiced a thousand years before Christ is necessarily hazy. Gosden thinks Stonehenge probably started as a cremation cemetery. But the site was redeveloped over centuries, so that by the time it was last worked on, “any memory of the original builders and their intentions would have been long lost.” Nonetheless, people turn to the stones for insight to our ancestors’ understandings of the world—and to seek proof of magical ideas, such as ley lines (lines allegedly meant to mark “Earth energies,” an idea serious scholars regard as nonsense).

The desire to know one’s fortune seems to be an instinctive human urge, and we have records of divination and oracles in the classical world. Haruspices would examine the entrails of animals to foretell the future. The first known horoscope was cast in 410 BCE. Astrologers and soothsayers influenced major events, with leaders looking to omens while deciding battle plans or alliances. The first Chinese emperor, Qin Shi Huang, used astrology and believed in immortality. Alexander the Great regularly visited oracles to guide his ambitions—and his death was supposedly foretold by Babylonian astrologers.

Alexander, like many of his period, didn’t draw a line between his religion and that of others. On his journeys, he would visit the temples of whatever gods the locals worshipped. As the boundaries of different faiths emerged, the idea of miracles still complicated the relationship (and indeed blurred the distinction) between magic and religion. In the monotheistic tradition, prophets and later saints were believed to perform miracles. Converts to Christianity often brought with them their own folk beliefs, which they held in tandem with their new faith.

Though the Bible condemned the occult, magical beliefs persisted and indeed grew with Christianity in Europe. Medieval magic seekers would steal the Communion host or holy water to use in casting spells. The power of religion was something they sought to harness for pagan ends. Clergymen often tolerated, and sometimes even participated in, such magical practices.

“Magic had an ambiguous, close, dangerous but productive relationship with Christianity,” Gosden suggests. “Where miracles stopped and magic started was always contentious, the role of the priest was never straightforward, and the conjuring of demons or angels combined Christian and ancient thought with contemporary practices.” Some forms of passive magic, such as horoscope reading, were tolerated. But active magic—casting spells—was potentially heretical and criminal.

That didn’t stop people from trying to use magic in personal ways. Curses have been popular for millennia. It was probably five minutes after hominids first developed words that someone said, “I wish you’d drop dead.” That someone probably wanted that wish to have some force. What’s the point of spiritual power if it can’t be directed at those who have wronged you? The afterlife sounds nice, but most of us want more immediate rewards.

Indeed, curse making seems to be one of the most widespread forms of magic belief. In many cultures, a particular person would be tasked with writing or casting the curse: “Writing a curse required a four-fold relationship,” Gosden explains, “comprising the client who commissioned the curse, the specialist who composed the curse, often drawing on established formulae, the god (or sometimes the spirit of a dead person) who enforced the curse and the victim who suffered from the curse. The causal agents behind the curse were either the gods (who themselves could not be bound for any length of time) or the unburied dead, angrily roaming the world hoping for mischief.” In some places, a middleman was not necessary: Evidence from post-Roman Britain suggests that people composed their own curses there.

You might assume that magical beliefs fell away with the scientific revolution, yet Isaac Newton himself was a firm believer in alchemy. At the same time, in the wider world, witch hunts were taking place. Europe’s witch hunts were part of the great social upheaval of the Reformation, and Gosden suggests it is no accident that many of the accusations of witchcraft were cross-denominational. Counter-Reformation Germany had a higher rate of witch executions than the rest of Europe, and witch trials were more common in places with religious competition, either between Catholics and Protestants or between different Protestant denominations. Early Modern Christians believed magic was not just real but real enough to be a threat.

Like all mass panics, the witch fever eventually faded. But the fear of witches cast a long shadow. The last woman in Britain to be imprisoned under the Witchcraft Act of 1735 was Helen Duncan, a Scottish medium, in 1944.

The 20th century brought its own developments in magic, such as the creation of Wicca. It also brought a new wave of scammers and a brisk market in table tappers and fake mediums, offering false hope to grieving families after the First World War. Our desire to control events through supernatural means has not faded: Moderns pray for loved ones, and curses persist in Mediterranean cultures and other parts of the world.

Since the 1960s, Westerners have had their pick of different cultures’ magical beliefs, from Carlos Castaneda to reiki, and “spiritual but not religious” has become a common self-description. Globalization and immigration have also brought exchanges in magical cultures. A household may have a horseshoe over the door, a nazar hanging in the window, and furniture arranged according to the principles of feng shui. The magical side of older religions has also been revived. Gosden notes that Kabbalah, the Jewish mystical tradition, “is most famous when practised by non-Jewish celebrities; shorn of almost all its cultural context, it is truly a magic for the modern age.”

“Magic today is not a fossil remnant of old beliefs but always exists as part of a triple helix with religion and science,” Gosden concludes. Especially in times of crisis, we look for any way to control our fate. The pandemic has produced new magical coronavirus remedies, from red soap in Sri Lanka to cocaine in France to violet oil on the anus in Iran. The human desire to believe has never faded.

Magic—A History: From Alchemy to Witchcraft, From the Ice Age to the Present, by Chris Gosden, Farrar, Straus and Giroux, 512 pages, $30

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From the Archives: February 2021

archives1

20 years ago

February 2001

“We have come a long way toward a diverse society that respects both the maleness and the individuality of boys and young men. This diversity will always have room for conservative subcultures that uphold traditional ideals of manhood, as well as for feminist-pacifist communes in which a little boy who uses a stick as a toy sword immediately has the weapon confiscated. But I’d like to think that the future belongs to the feminist who can respect her son the career soldier and to the career soldier who can respect his son the hairdresser.”
Cathy Young
“Where the Boys Are”

“As three tired, unshaven men struggling over the Montana mountains at 45 miles per hour in a 1969 Volkswagen bus, we meant only one thing to the authorities sworn to protect the public from the Rainbow Family Gathering of Light. Hippies. Worse: hippies without permits, a combination that put The Man in a particularly grumpy state of mind.”
“Take Me to Your Leader”
Sam MacDonald

25 years ago

February 1996

“By making it virtually impossible to collect meaningful data about juvenile delinquents, expungement also makes it difficult to evaluate crime-prevention and rehabilitation programs. Outside of the criminal justice sphere, the policy has other deleterious effects. Employers, for instance, can’t know whether potential employees are prone to stealing or other criminal behaviors. Given these various costs, it’s not surprising that a number of states are seriously reevaluating the sealing of juvenile records.”
T. Funk
“Young & Arrestless”

“The embrace of top-down institutions can thus be seen as a kind of industrial counterrevolution. The legacy of this counterrevolution was to magnify and prolong the harshest and least attractive features of the industrial economy, and squelch its most benign and hopeful ones. We have moved away from the rough edges of the early industrial era in spite of, not because of, the grand designs of social engineers and technocratic elites.”
Brink Lindsey
“Big Mistake”

“Crushing tax burdens are just over the horizon. When the baby boom generation retires, younger workers will have to pay 84 percent of their income to support federal spending, an obviously uncollectable amount. Even if the Republican balanced budget is enacted, that rate will fall only to the low 70s.”
Carolyn Lochhead
“Child’s Play”

35 years ago

February 1986

“Utility PR people and government regulators continue to recite the ‘free enterprise lost in a fair fight’ tale. That story won’t wash any longer. Vail and Insull and their cronies managed to hornswoggle several generations of Americans, but their modern-day counterparts have a tougher battle on their hands. American consumers are getting wise to the regulated-monopoly con, and it doesn’t take subterfuge for them to make their case—only open information and honest analysis. Let’s hope that it’s enough.”
Marvin N. Olasky
“Hornswoggled!”

“I ask you, what good are such ordinances and regulations if we allow the denizens of these communities or their guests to dress in disaccord with the understated tastefulness that select alderpersons have so wisely legislated into place? Of what use is a beautifully regulated house, with its beautifully regulated landscape nestled into a beautifully regulated hill, in a beautifully regulated community, if all that beautifully regulated eye appeal might be so easily and capriciously set awry by careless and unregulated pedestrians who have little if any sense of fashion?”
Stephen Barone
“Let’s Hear It for the Fashion Police”

“I live here in Berkeley where my old comrades are now in power, and I find myself struggling against them. And this is the legacy, that the left became so ideologically attached to anti-Americanism and pro-communism and Third Worldism that I believe that we have a problem on our hands.”
“Reason Interview: Eldridge Cleaver”

50 years ago

February 1971

“The power crisis now facing this country consists in a peculiarly interlocked group of shortages, not only of electrical generating capacity but also of every major fuel supply. Behind these shortages lies a system of controls and interventions which not only have failed individually to achieve their intended purposes but have also worked at cross-purposes with one another. In short, if one wished to wreak havoc in the field of power generation, it would be difficult to design a system that would succeed better than the current patchwork of interventions.”
Robert Poole Jr.
“The Power Crisis”

from Latest – Reason.com https://ift.tt/3cjwZwf
via IFTTT

From the Archives: February 2021

archives1

20 years ago

February 2001

“We have come a long way toward a diverse society that respects both the maleness and the individuality of boys and young men. This diversity will always have room for conservative subcultures that uphold traditional ideals of manhood, as well as for feminist-pacifist communes in which a little boy who uses a stick as a toy sword immediately has the weapon confiscated. But I’d like to think that the future belongs to the feminist who can respect her son the career soldier and to the career soldier who can respect his son the hairdresser.”
Cathy Young
“Where the Boys Are”

“As three tired, unshaven men struggling over the Montana mountains at 45 miles per hour in a 1969 Volkswagen bus, we meant only one thing to the authorities sworn to protect the public from the Rainbow Family Gathering of Light. Hippies. Worse: hippies without permits, a combination that put The Man in a particularly grumpy state of mind.”
“Take Me to Your Leader”
Sam MacDonald

25 years ago

February 1996

“By making it virtually impossible to collect meaningful data about juvenile delinquents, expungement also makes it difficult to evaluate crime-prevention and rehabilitation programs. Outside of the criminal justice sphere, the policy has other deleterious effects. Employers, for instance, can’t know whether potential employees are prone to stealing or other criminal behaviors. Given these various costs, it’s not surprising that a number of states are seriously reevaluating the sealing of juvenile records.”
T. Funk
“Young & Arrestless”

“The embrace of top-down institutions can thus be seen as a kind of industrial counterrevolution. The legacy of this counterrevolution was to magnify and prolong the harshest and least attractive features of the industrial economy, and squelch its most benign and hopeful ones. We have moved away from the rough edges of the early industrial era in spite of, not because of, the grand designs of social engineers and technocratic elites.”
Brink Lindsey
“Big Mistake”

“Crushing tax burdens are just over the horizon. When the baby boom generation retires, younger workers will have to pay 84 percent of their income to support federal spending, an obviously uncollectable amount. Even if the Republican balanced budget is enacted, that rate will fall only to the low 70s.”
Carolyn Lochhead
“Child’s Play”

35 years ago

February 1986

“Utility PR people and government regulators continue to recite the ‘free enterprise lost in a fair fight’ tale. That story won’t wash any longer. Vail and Insull and their cronies managed to hornswoggle several generations of Americans, but their modern-day counterparts have a tougher battle on their hands. American consumers are getting wise to the regulated-monopoly con, and it doesn’t take subterfuge for them to make their case—only open information and honest analysis. Let’s hope that it’s enough.”
Marvin N. Olasky
“Hornswoggled!”

“I ask you, what good are such ordinances and regulations if we allow the denizens of these communities or their guests to dress in disaccord with the understated tastefulness that select alderpersons have so wisely legislated into place? Of what use is a beautifully regulated house, with its beautifully regulated landscape nestled into a beautifully regulated hill, in a beautifully regulated community, if all that beautifully regulated eye appeal might be so easily and capriciously set awry by careless and unregulated pedestrians who have little if any sense of fashion?”
Stephen Barone
“Let’s Hear It for the Fashion Police”

“I live here in Berkeley where my old comrades are now in power, and I find myself struggling against them. And this is the legacy, that the left became so ideologically attached to anti-Americanism and pro-communism and Third Worldism that I believe that we have a problem on our hands.”
“Reason Interview: Eldridge Cleaver”

50 years ago

February 1971

“The power crisis now facing this country consists in a peculiarly interlocked group of shortages, not only of electrical generating capacity but also of every major fuel supply. Behind these shortages lies a system of controls and interventions which not only have failed individually to achieve their intended purposes but have also worked at cross-purposes with one another. In short, if one wished to wreak havoc in the field of power generation, it would be difficult to design a system that would succeed better than the current patchwork of interventions.”
Robert Poole Jr.
“The Power Crisis”

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via IFTTT