Apple Car Spoils Tesla’s Big Day

Apple Car Spoils Tesla’s Big Day

Submitted by Market Crumbs,

Tesla’s long-awaited first day of trading as a member of the S&P 500 started out with a tweet from co-founder and CEO Elon Musk congratulating those who helped the company get to this point.

“Thanks to everyone who worked so hard to make Tesla successful,” Musk tweeted.

“My heart goes out to you.”

With speculation about what would happen to Tesla’s share price once it officially joined the S&P 500 growing in recent weeks, no one expected a report about Apple’s vehicle ambitions to spoil Tesla’s party.

A late afternoon Reuters report sent Tesla shares lower after detailing Apple’s intentions to build a self-driving vehicle with the goal of having a passenger vehicle based on its own battery system available by 2024. Sources that spoke to Reuters said the initiative is called Project Titan and has been ongoing on and off since 2014.

Apple reportedly debated designing only software for vehicles at one point before deciding it wants to produce a consumer vehicle. Project Titan is being overseen by Doug Field, who previously worked at Tesla for five years before returning to Apple for a second stint at the company in 2018.

The sources told Reuters that Apple has been working on a battery that could “radically” reduce cost while expanding a vehicle’s range through a unique “monocell” design. Apple’s plans could still change and the company could decide to focus on just building an autonomous driving system that could be installed in other manufacturer’s vehicles.

“It’s next level,” the source told Reuters regarding Apple’s battery technology. “Like the first time you saw the iPhone.”

The expectation is that if Apple were to build an Apple-branded car that it would partner with a manufacturer to assemble components from various suppliers. The hope that Apple may choose a supplier for lidar, which is a key component for self-driving cars, caused shares of companies in the space such as Velodyne and Luminar to soar.

While the report offers similar details as to what has been rumored for years, Apple investors cheered the news as they hope Apple may finally try to dominate the automobile market the way it has the consumer electronics market.

Tyler Durden
Tue, 12/22/2020 – 09:19

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/38kKbNq Tyler Durden

UK Mostly Cut Off From Europe Over Mutation Fears; US COVID Deaths Hit New Record: Live Updates

UK Mostly Cut Off From Europe Over Mutation Fears; US COVID Deaths Hit New Record: Live Updates

Summary:

  • France allows truckers from UK with negative COVID test
  • US 7-day deaths average hits new record
  • EU calls on members to continue freight trade with UK
  • Public health official warns “only matter of time” before mutation arrives in Germany
  • Hungary sees lowest tally of new cases in 2 months
  • Ireland expect to impose holiday lockdown

* * *

Boris Johnson managed to keep his promise to the British people, and on Tuesday morning, the French lifted restrictions on British travelers and truckers – with one important catch: to cross into France, truckers and travelers must provide a recent negative test for COVID-19 taken during the last three days.

The US, meanwhile, is reportedly considering whether to impose travel restrictions, though we suspect these leaked reports are merely a response to Gov. Cuomo’s demands that all British travelers arriving at JFK be tested for COVID.

In other news during what many are hoping will be a quiet, holiday-shortened week in the US, we have some major news out of Taiwan, which has just recorded its first case of COVID-19 in more than eight months, ending the world’s longest-stretch without a domestic infection. Late last month, Vietnam snapped a nearly 3-month streak. Both countries have been models for the international community, as other countries in the region – including Thailand, South Korea and Australia – have been unable to keep a lid on outbreaks.

As the world continues to worry about the mutated virus purportedly discovered in southern England and a few other areas around the globe, the EU has called on all its member states to at least reopen freight links with the UK.

Hospitalizations continued to climb across the US, while the number of new cases reported has declined for a second day.

But deaths nationwide are reaching new record daily tallies, with the 7-day average at a record 2.6K.

For months, scientists have been warning that the virus hasn’t seen any notable mutations. But in yet another example of how our understanding of the vaccine can change at the drop of a hat, the world is now panicking about a mutation found in southern England and a handful of other places, which scientists fear could be as much as 70% more infectious than the ‘original’ COVID-19.

Elsewhere in Europe, the Netherlands has just joined Stockholm in placing all non-urgent health care on hold to allow hospitals to better care for the crush of Covid patients, as some are even being transferred to neighboring Germany. Speaking of Germany, Robert Koch Institute President Lothar Wieler said that while the variant hasn’t yet been identified in Europe’s biggest economy, it’s only a matter of time. The country has already banned travelers from England and Northern Ireland, as well as South Africa.

“I would estimate that the likelihood that it’s already in Germany but not yet detected is very, very high,” Wieler said.

Here’s some more COVID news from overnigth and Tuesday morning:

  • Switzerland is trying to locate about 10,000 Britons who entered the country after Dec. 14 and must now quarantine for 10 days after the Alpine nation blocked borders for tourists coming from the U.K., according to Swiss newspaper Tages Anzeiger. The government will use passenger logs for about 92 flights to track down the visitors, many of whom traveled to ski resorts in southwestern Switzerland.
  • Hungary registered 1,238 new infections, the lowest daily tally in two months, according to official data released Tuesday. The number of deaths remained near record highs at 180, and infection figures have often been skewed by a low rate of testing.
  • Ireland is expected to close pubs and restaurants from Dec. 24 in an effort to contain the spread of the coronavirus, state broadcaster RTE reported.

* * *

Finally, BioNTech’s CEO said Monday evening that it is pursuing all its options to produce more vaccine doses than the 1.3BN the companies had promised to produce next year.

Tyler Durden
Tue, 12/22/2020 – 09:08

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2WCbQEh Tyler Durden

My two primary principles when writing: Use as few words as necessary, and sequence sentences in the correct order

When I write, I keep two primary principles in mind. First, I use as few words as necessary to convey an idea. Second, I ensure that every sentences is sequenced in the correct order. If a word is not necessary, I delete it. If a word is out of place, I move it around.

Let’s start with the first principle. Everyone has a short attention span. At some point, even the most patient readers will abandon an unnecessarily long book, essay, or blog post. But this dynamic also works on a micro level. At some point, even the most patient reader will abandon an unnecessarily long sentence. Shorter is always better. My general approach: where possible, use one subject and one verb per sentence. If you need to convey two concepts, write a second sentence. And ensure there is a proper linkage from the first sentence to the second sentence. If you have to nest multiple parantheticals and em-dashes in a sentence, you need to start over.

Writing in this fashion is much harder. When you break up sentences, you will realize that your ideas may not fit together as well as you thought they did. And that process will probably force you to write and rewrite and rewrite the first sentence. Shorter is always better.

I admit that short, choppy sentences, may be less pleasant to read. So be it. I will gladly sacrifice fluidity for clarity. In any event, this concern is overstated. With experience, you can write short sentences with grace. Short-writing will take more time. But that time is very well spent. A famous quote, falsely attributed to Mark Twain, articulates my philosophy: “If I had more time, I would have written a shorter letter.” Take the plunge. Break it up.

My second principle follows from the first: every word I write must be in the correct place. Stated differently, sentences must be sequenced correctly. Sentence one must be understood on its own, without regard to sentence two. Sentence two must be understood on its own, and should build on sentence once. Sentence three must be understood on its own, and should build on sentences one and two. And so on.

Easier said than done. Often, writers will begin a paragraph with a concept that is more fully developed later. That first sentence cannot be understood without reading further–if ever. The author may presume that the reader will stick around till the end of the paragraph. I never make that assumption about my reader. I presume that you may stop reading at any point. Even right now.

If I have to read a sentence more than twice, and still don’t fully understand that sentence, I will move on. And I may not even finish the paragraph. The author has failed. If there is some information needed to understand that first sentence, then you need a new first sentence. Rearrange the paragraph. I think of writing a paragraph like building a skyscraper. Start with the foundation. Then build one floor at a time. You can’t start with the spire. Each paragraph must be treated as self contained entity, that must be read in the correct order.

Some authors find it valuable to spin out dense prose that readers must decipher. As if a book was like a treasure hunt! Perhaps these luminaries have latitude to toy with their readers. Most academics become prominent for what they write; not how they write. Aspiring academics should not emulate that strategy. From the outset, writers should ensure that every sentence can be understood in sequence. Readers should never have to go back and reread a prior sentence.

On the Supreme Court today, Chief Justice Roberts consistently follows these two principles. (As much as his jurisprudence frustrates me, I always appreciate his writing). First, he writes with surgical precision. There is seldom a wasted word. When I edit a Roberts opinion for the casebook, there are no easy cuts. Second, each sentence builds on the previous sentence. His controlling opinion in NFIB v. Sebelius is a masterclass in foundation building. Each part builds on the previous part cleanly. For this reason, I put a lot of weight in the structure of Part III. Part III.C must be understood as derivate of Parts III.A and III.B.

Justice Kagan consistently nails the second approach. I love reading her opinions because they flow like a storybook. There is a beginning. A middle. And a clear end. Though she proudly deviates from the first principle. She loves parenthetical asides. Some of them are tad shticky, but I enjoy the banter. I hope to edit many more Kagan opinions for the casebook. I hope Justice Breyer assigns her more dissents.

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My two primary principles when writing: Use as few words as necessary, and sequence sentences in the correct order

When I write, I keep two primary principles in mind. First, I use as few words as necessary to convey an idea. Second, I ensure that every sentences is sequenced in the correct order. If a word is not necessary, I delete it. If a word is out of place, I move it around.

Let’s start with the first principle. Everyone has a short attention span. At some point, even the most patient readers will abandon an unnecessarily long book, essay, or blog post. But this dynamic also works on a micro level. At some point, even the most patient reader will abandon an unnecessarily long sentence. Shorter is always better. My general approach: where possible, use one subject and one verb per sentence. If you need to convey two concepts, write a second sentence. And ensure there is a proper linkage from the first sentence to the second sentence. If you have to nest multiple parantheticals and em-dashes in a sentence, you need to start over.

Writing in this fashion is much harder. When you break up sentences, you will realize that your ideas may not fit together as well as you thought they did. And that process will probably force you to write and rewrite and rewrite the first sentence. Shorter is always better.

I admit that short, choppy sentences, may be less pleasant to read. So be it. I will gladly sacrifice fluidity for clarity. In any event, this concern is overstated. With experience, you can write short sentences with grace. Short-writing will take more time. But that time is very well spent. A famous quote, falsely attributed to Mark Twain, articulates my philosophy: “If I had more time, I would have written a shorter letter.” Take the plunge. Break it up.

My second principle follows from the first: every word I write must be in the correct place. Stated differently, sentences must be sequenced correctly. Sentence one must be understood on its own, without regard to sentence two. Sentence two must be understood on its own, and should build on sentence once. Sentence three must be understood on its own, and should build on sentences one and two. And so on.

Easier said than done. Often, writers will begin a paragraph with a concept that is more fully developed later. That first sentence cannot be understood without reading further–if ever. The author may presume that the reader will stick around till the end of the paragraph. I never make that assumption about my reader. I presume that you may stop reading at any point. Even right now.

If I have to read a sentence more than twice, and still don’t fully understand that sentence, I will move on. And I may not even finish the paragraph. The author has failed. If there is some information needed to understand that first sentence, then you need a new first sentence. Rearrange the paragraph. I think of writing a paragraph like building a skyscraper. Start with the foundation. Then build one floor at a time. You can’t start with the spire. Each paragraph must be treated as self contained entity, that must be read in the correct order.

Some authors find it valuable to spin out dense prose that readers must decipher. As if a book was like a treasure hunt! Perhaps these luminaries have latitude to toy with their readers. Most academics become prominent for what they write; not how they write. Aspiring academics should not emulate that strategy. From the outset, writers should ensure that every sentence can be understood in sequence. Readers should never have to go back and reread a prior sentence.

On the Supreme Court today, Chief Justice Roberts consistently follows these two principles. (As much as his jurisprudence frustrates me, I always appreciate his writing). First, he writes with surgical precision. There is seldom a wasted word. When I edit a Roberts opinion for the casebook, there are no easy cuts. Second, each sentence builds on the previous sentence. His controlling opinion in NFIB v. Sebelius is a masterclass in foundation building. Each part builds on the previous part cleanly. For this reason, I put a lot of weight in the structure of Part III. Part III.C must be understood as derivate of Parts III.A and III.B.

Justice Kagan consistently nails the second approach. I love reading her opinions because they flow like a storybook. There is a beginning. A middle. And a clear end. Though she proudly deviates from the first principle. She loves parenthetical asides. Some of them are tad shticky, but I enjoy the banter. I hope to edit many more Kagan opinions for the casebook. I hope Justice Breyer assigns her more dissents.

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November US Existing Home Sales Will Surprise Downward Amid Lack Of Supply And Virus Resurgence

November US Existing Home Sales Will Surprise Downward Amid Lack Of Supply And Virus Resurgence

Via Christophe-Barraud.com,

On Tuesday, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) will release the Existing Home Sales (EHS) for November. According to the Bloomberg consensus, EHS should decrease by 2.2% MoM to 6.70M SAAR.

→ My proxies confirm that EHS will surprise downward*. It will be the first drop since May 2020.

  • Local/state reports show that, on a YoY bais, sales rose at slower pace in November (non-seasonally adjusted: NSA), which should translate into a decline on a MoM basis (seasonally adjusted: SA)

  • A decrease would be coherent with the trend in Pending Home Sales (PHS)

  • Lack of supply and Covid-19 weighed on housing transactions

1. Local/state reports confirm that sales fell for the first time since May 2020

Local/state figures suggest that national existing home sales (non-seasonally adjusted: NSA) are likely to have risen again on a YoY basis in November (fifth straight rise). The pace of increase (NSA) would probably exceed 20% YoY but it should be lower than in October (+24% YoY). Therefore, using my sample of local/state data and a seasonal adjustment factor lower than last year (more favorable), I expect November EHS to disappoint the consensus of -2.2% MoM (seasonally adjusted: SA).

2. A decrease in Existing Home Sales would be coherent with the trend in Pending Home Sales

As the National Association of Realtors (NAR) noted, “The Pending Home Sales Index (PHS), a leading indicator of housing activity, measures housing contract activity, and is based on signed real estate contracts for existing single-family homes, condos, and co-ops. Because a home goes under contract a month or two before it is sold, the Pending Home Sales Index generally leads Existing-Home Sales by a month or two.” Therefore, It would be coherent if EHS catch up with PHS as suggested by the chart below.

3. Lack of supply and Covid-19 affected transactions in November

One of the recent development related to the the housing market has been the significant decline in inventory, which pushed prices upward. According to Redfin, “Active listings—the count of all homes that were for sale at any time during the month—fell 23% year over year to their lowest level on record in November, the 16th-straight month of declines.” My sample of local/state reports also pointed to a YoY fall in inventory that was slightly larger than in October. This pattern was sometimes cited as a dampening factor on sales such as in North East Florida. In the meantime, the spike of coronavirus cases in most affected areas in November, such as Midwest, also affected demand. As an example, existing home sales in Minnnesota only increased by 15.8% YoY in November (below the national average), a pace significantly weaker than in October (+28.9% YoY).

*I perfectly forecasted the level of EHS in JulyAugustSeptember and October.

Tyler Durden
Tue, 12/22/2020 – 08:50

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/37CEFqu Tyler Durden

The Massive SolarWinds Hack Won’t Stop the Feds from Wanting All Your Data

solarwinds_1161x653

Governments often tell their subjects that they must submit to surveillance programs to stay safe. Whether the boogeyman is terrorism, hate, or even health, government snooping on private data often violates our rights to privacy.

But surveillance programs are unsafe on their own. Securing major sets of sensitive personal data is a tall order that few can fulfill. What do you know: Government agencies that want more access to your data all too often get hacked and risk exposing your private information to the world.

A case in point: on the same week that we learned the Treasury Department succumbed to a huge hack, it proposed a major expansion of their quiet yet pervasive financial surveillance programs to so-called “self-hosted wallet” (AKA privately controlled) cryptocurrency transactions.

Last week, it was revealed that agencies such as the U.S. Departments of Commerce, Treasury, Energy and National Nuclear Security Administration (!), and Homeland Security had succumbed to a sophisticated cyber-attack where a likely nation-backed actor had infiltrated government systems. This hack was just one part of a larger offensive against the major IT infrastructure company SolarWinds, who counted some of the largest players in commerce, media, government, and academia among its clients. Specifically, hackers compromised an old version of SolarWinds’ Orion software that was used by some 18,000 customers.

Security analysts are still probing the extent of the hack and likely fallout. It appears that systems had been infiltrated for months since around March; perhaps attackers still have access to certain networks. And this particular operation might not have been limited to just the SolarWinds Orion product. We might not know the full contours of this problem for quite some time.

Government leaders are already beating the drums of cyberwar. They can’t help themselves, but it’s certainly too early for such threat escalation. But it’s always worth thinking through government surveillance practices that put our data at risk of such inevitable offenses. Creating massive government databases of personal information creates an unavoidable breach liability.

When it comes to the Treasury Department, the hacking risk is especially acute. Few people know that Treasury has operated a massive financial surveillance program made possible through the Bank Secrecy Act, which is kind of like the “PATRIOT Act for money,” for decades. Under the guise of fighting money-laundering and crime, the Treasury Department forces financial institutions to collect and share personal information on innocent people every day. Unsurprisingly, Treasury would like to expand these programs to ensnare more cryptocurrency transactions in its dragnet.

The proposed “self-hosted wallet” rules would make it much harder for privacy-minded individuals who run manage their own private keys for cryptocurrency to make transactions with people who outsource key management to third parties.

Right now, customers of third party-managed wallets and exchanges must submit to certain “anti-money laundering/know your customer” (AML/KYC) government data reporting rules when making transactions greater than $10,000 dollars. The proposed change would require that the recipients of such transactions also submit to personal data collection even when they manage their own keys before the regulated company may send the funds. Furthermore, the limit for such “self-hosted wallet” recipients would be lowered to $3,000 for certain data recording requirements—a new and unjustifiable roadblock for privately managed wallets to engage with the rest of the crypto economy.

There are a lot of problems with this rule. It would make it harder for privacy- and security-minded individuals who manage their own keys to interact with other users. It would create a huge hacking risk for those who decide to submit to the new AML/KYC rules.

And it would seem to make a whole category of cryptocurrency transactions legally unworkable. For example, with a multisignature transaction or smart contract where no one party controls a transaction, there is not a straightforward way to collect AML/KYC data—in the case of a smart contract, there might not be a “person” involved at all. Would these transactions simply be illegal?

Frustratingly, the proposal doesn’t give the public a lot of time to respond—as a “midnight regulation,” it affords a measly 15 days over the holidays to suggest improvements in comparison to the typical one to three months.

Unfortunately, this program would be only one of the many problematic data extraction schemes the Treasury Department has cooked up over the years.

For example, the Financial Crime Enforcement Network (FinCEN) has partnered up with the Federal Reserve to force banks to keep dossiers on anyone who wants to send an international transfer of at least $250 (called the “travel rule”).

Fancy cyberattacks are far from the only risk. FinCEN suffered another recent breach where thousands of so-called “Suspicious Activity Reports” (SARs) that banks are required to file with the government on transactions that the government wishes to flag were leaked to journalists. The media covered the leaks mostly to criticize banks for allowing these government flagged transactions to go through. Yet the bigger story about why the government collects this data and how insecure those reports apparently are went basically unmentioned.

By forcing major platforms to collect and share personal data on self-hosted wallets before allowing transactions to go through, the government would not only access (and probably expose) private data, it would majorly cut down on self-hosted wallet activities by making it that much harder for privacy-minded users. Now that we see the Treasury Department is apparently riddled with cybersecurity holes, we have even greater reason to resist the expansion of its financial surveillance programs.

Mandating that companies keep sensitive data on innocent transactors so that governments can review them “when needed” inevitably creates a security risk. Now banks and agencies must not only collect or review the data, they must make sure that it doesn’t get exposed to the wrong parties. We shouldn’t be surprised when they fail. Instead, we should not give these groups more access to personal data and wind down the data collections programs that do exist.

The Treasury Department routinely does not even consider privacy costs when weighing the costs and benefits of a new proposed rule. They really should go farther: government agencies that propose collecting more private data should be required to consider the security and hacking liabilities of collecting and storing this data. My guess is that a lot of these programs would suddenly appear too costly to justify. We need to weigh these very real security risks along with the threats to our abstract rights to privacy.

It’s a bit mind-blowing that a hacked government agency would propose such sweeping expansions to financial surveillance on the same week that we learned their systems suffered a major intrusion. It’s yet another data point on the extreme security risks of such collection in the first place.

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Final Q3 GDP Estimate At 33.4%: Stronger Than Expected And Highest On Record

Final Q3 GDP Estimate At 33.4%: Stronger Than Expected And Highest On Record

While few will care about what the economy did in the third quarter now that the Atlanta Fed expects Q4 GDP to grow just over 11%, and JPMorgan expects an actual contraction in Q1 2021, moments ago the BEA reported that its third estimate for Q3 GDP was 33.4% annualized, higher than the 33.1% previous print which was also the expected number, and was also the highest print on record.

The revision to GDP primarily reflected upward revisions to consumer spending and business investment that were partly offset by a downward revision to exports.

The biggest contributor to this record increase was personal consumption, which rose even more than expected, surging a record 41.0% annualized, above the 40.6% expected.

Most components were virtually unchanged from the 2nd estimate:

  • Personal Consumption contributed 25.44% of the bottom line GDP print vs 25.22% in the November estimate
  • Fixed Investment was 5.39% vs 5.23%
  • Inventories was 6.57% vs 6.55%
  • Exports dipped to 4.89% from 4.95%
  • Imports were -8.10% vs -8.12%
  • Government subtracted -0.75% vs -0.76%

There was some disappointment on the reflation front, where the GDP price index rose 3.5% in 3Q after falling 1.8% prior quarter; it missed expectations of a 3.6% rise. Core PCE q/q rose 3.4% in 3Q after falling 0.8% prior quarter; it also missed estiamtes of 3.5%

Separately, the BEA reported that corporate profits from current production increased 27.4% at a quarterly rate in the third quarter after decreasing 10.3% in the second quarter. Corporate profits increased 3.5% in the third quarter from one year ago. Profits were boosted by provisions from the Paycheck Protection Program.

  • Profits of domestic non financial corporations increased44.3percent after decreasing 12.9 percent.
  • Profits of domestic financial corporations increased 2.6percent after increasing 6.1 percent.
  • Profits from the rest of the worldincreased13.4percent after decreasing18.9percent

Finally, we noted that this number will have no impact on the market especially since the Atlanta Fed already expects Q4 GDP to come in around 11.4% according to its latest GDPNowcast.

And the trend is not our friend with GDP recently predicting that Q1 2021 will see a modest GDP contraction, officially triggering a double dip recession.

Tyler Durden
Tue, 12/22/2020 – 08:45

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/3mB49c0 Tyler Durden

The Massive SolarWinds Hack Won’t Stop the Feds from Wanting All Your Data

solarwinds_1161x653

Governments often tell their subjects that they must submit to surveillance programs to stay safe. Whether the boogeyman is terrorism, hate, or even health, government snooping on private data often violates our rights to privacy.

But surveillance programs are unsafe on their own. Securing major sets of sensitive personal data is a tall order that few can fulfill. What do you know: Government agencies that want more access to your data all too often get hacked and risk exposing your private information to the world.

A case in point: on the same week that we learned the Treasury Department succumbed to a huge hack, it proposed a major expansion of their quiet yet pervasive financial surveillance programs to so-called “self-hosted wallet” (AKA privately controlled) cryptocurrency transactions.

Last week, it was revealed that agencies such as the U.S. Departments of Commerce, Treasury, Energy and National Nuclear Security Administration (!), and Homeland Security had succumbed to a sophisticated cyber-attack where a likely nation-backed actor had infiltrated government systems. This hack was just one part of a larger offensive against the major IT infrastructure company SolarWinds, who counted some of the largest players in commerce, media, government, and academia among its clients. Specifically, hackers compromised an old version of SolarWinds’ Orion software that was used by some 18,000 customers.

Security analysts are still probing the extent of the hack and likely fallout. It appears that systems had been infiltrated for months since around March; perhaps attackers still have access to certain networks. And this particular operation might not have been limited to just the SolarWinds Orion product. We might not know the full contours of this problem for quite some time.

Government leaders are already beating the drums of cyberwar. They can’t help themselves, but it’s certainly too early for such threat escalation. But it’s always worth thinking through government surveillance practices that put our data at risk of such inevitable offenses. Creating massive government databases of personal information creates an unavoidable breach liability.

When it comes to the Treasury Department, the hacking risk is especially acute. Few people know that Treasury has operated a massive financial surveillance program made possible through the Bank Secrecy Act, which is kind of like the “PATRIOT Act for money,” for decades. Under the guise of fighting money-laundering and crime, the Treasury Department forces financial institutions to collect and share personal information on innocent people every day. Unsurprisingly, Treasury would like to expand these programs to ensnare more cryptocurrency transactions in its dragnet.

The proposed “self-hosted wallet” rules would make it much harder for privacy-minded individuals who run manage their own private keys for cryptocurrency to make transactions with people who outsource key management to third parties.

Right now, customers of third party-managed wallets and exchanges must submit to certain “anti-money laundering/know your customer” (AML/KYC) government data reporting rules when making transactions greater than $10,000 dollars. The proposed change would require that the recipients of such transactions also submit to personal data collection even when they manage their own keys before the regulated company may send the funds. Furthermore, the limit for such “self-hosted wallet” recipients would be lowered to $3,000 for certain data recording requirements—a new and unjustifiable roadblock for privately managed wallets to engage with the rest of the crypto economy.

There are a lot of problems with this rule. It would make it harder for privacy- and security-minded individuals who manage their own keys to interact with other users. It would create a huge hacking risk for those who decide to submit to the new AML/KYC rules.

And it would seem to make a whole category of cryptocurrency transactions legally unworkable. For example, with a multisignature transaction or smart contract where no one party controls a transaction, there is not a straightforward way to collect AML/KYC data—in the case of a smart contract, there might not be a “person” involved at all. Would these transactions simply be illegal?

Frustratingly, the proposal doesn’t give the public a lot of time to respond—as a “midnight regulation,” it affords a measly 15 days over the holidays to suggest improvements in comparison to the typical one to three months.

Unfortunately, this program would be only one of the many problematic data extraction schemes the Treasury Department has cooked up over the years.

For example, the Financial Crime Enforcement Network (FinCEN) has partnered up with the Federal Reserve to force banks to keep dossiers on anyone who wants to send an international transfer of at least $250 (called the “travel rule”).

Fancy cyberattacks are far from the only risk. FinCEN suffered another recent breach where thousands of so-called “Suspicious Activity Reports” (SARs) that banks are required to file with the government on transactions that the government wishes to flag were leaked to journalists. The media covered the leaks mostly to criticize banks for allowing these government flagged transactions to go through. Yet the bigger story about why the government collects this data and how insecure those reports apparently are went basically unmentioned.

By forcing major platforms to collect and share personal data on self-hosted wallets before allowing transactions to go through, the government would not only access (and probably expose) private data, it would majorly cut down on self-hosted wallet activities by making it that much harder for privacy-minded users. Now that we see the Treasury Department is apparently riddled with cybersecurity holes, we have even greater reason to resist the expansion of its financial surveillance programs.

Mandating that companies keep sensitive data on innocent transactors so that governments can review them “when needed” inevitably creates a security risk. Now banks and agencies must not only collect or review the data, they must make sure that it doesn’t get exposed to the wrong parties. We shouldn’t be surprised when they fail. Instead, we should not give these groups more access to personal data and wind down the data collections programs that do exist.

The Treasury Department routinely does not even consider privacy costs when weighing the costs and benefits of a new proposed rule. They really should go farther: government agencies that propose collecting more private data should be required to consider the security and hacking liabilities of collecting and storing this data. My guess is that a lot of these programs would suddenly appear too costly to justify. We need to weigh these very real security risks along with the threats to our abstract rights to privacy.

It’s a bit mind-blowing that a hacked government agency would propose such sweeping expansions to financial surveillance on the same week that we learned their systems suffered a major intrusion. It’s yet another data point on the extreme security risks of such collection in the first place.

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Hedge Funds May View Tesla’s S&P Sell-Off As A “Negative Catalyst”

Hedge Funds May View Tesla’s S&P Sell-Off As A “Negative Catalyst”

Tesla faced what appeared to be its first reality check in years in trading on Monday. After being included into the S&P 500 index, Tesla shares finished the day down 6.49%, falling $45 per share amid a coming implied volatility collapse and a liquidity triggered “normalization” that very well could prevent Tesla from being pushed higher by call option buys, they way it has been over the last year or so.

Roth Capital Partners analyst Craig Irwin told Bloomberg on Monday that the sell off could be considered a negative catalyst: “Hedge funds will treat this as a negative catalyst for Tesla given buying pressure eases off very quickly.”

Bernstein analyst Toni Sacconaghi had also noted in early December: “There is strong precedence for positive returns for stocks prior to S&P 500 inclusion and post announcement, but very limited precedent for near term outperformance post inclusion.”

In other words, the gravy train could be coming to an end. 

This comes after a flurry of institutional investing on Friday that culminated in almost $60 billion in stock changing hands at a price of $695. Throughout the entire session, more than $150 billion in Tesla shares traded hands. 

Tesla stock wasn’t helped along much on Monday when we noted that Apple was throwing its hat into the self-driving car business. Tesla shares slipped to their lowest of the day on the news, while Apple shares perked up to their highs of the day. In addition to designing self-driving vehicles, Reuters also reported that Apple’s cars could “include its own breakthrough battery technology”.

Apple’s development project, called “Project Titan” was rumored to have been shelved after first starting in 2014. However, former Tesla executive Doug Field returned back to Apple in 2018 to work on the project before laying off 190 people from the team in 2019. But since then, “Apple has progressed enough that it now aims to build a vehicle for consumers”, Reuters noted.

It is also worth noting that a couple days before Tesla was included into the S&P index, we published Twitter user @Squeezemetric’s astute analysis, which made a cogent case as to why Tesla stock could potentially fall as a result of its inclusion in the index. 

How S&P inclusion bursts the Tesla bubble:

Ever since June (at $200/share), Tesla stock has been driven by a perpetual motion machine of hype and call option flows — nothing more. And everyone knows it.

Here’s what not everyone knows:

  • When a stock joins the S&P 500, it becomes part of a massive volatility complex, which is a terrifying web of arbitrage and pseudo-arbitrage relationships. Tesla will join the index as a top-ten component of a cap-weighted index. It’s big.
  • Its bigness will allow all manner of dispersion, relative value, and market-making traders to begin relying on Tesla’s newfound correlation to the index. This will invariably cause arbitrageurs to buy SPX options/vol and sell TSLA options/vol to “close the spread.”
  • Since Tesla stock is driven by the returns on call options, it is a slave to “vanna”: the relationship between option prices (implied volatility) and delta (stock exposure).

In other words, since June, $TSLA goes up only when implied volatility (IV) goes up (purple line is IV).

When Tesla joins the index, these historic call option flows and the hype machine behind them will hit the big red fire truck that is the S&P, at 500mph.

Implied volatility will be unable to rise. Call options will bleed value. New flows will be absorbed by real traders.

With the call option hype trade hampered, the stock will have no possibility of further returns — a deliciously ironic end to the ugliest of Robinhood’s many ugly children.

And an appropriately ironic fate for Tesla – a victim of its own “success.”

However, noting Craig-Hallum’s comments, if this scenario does begin to play out and hedge funds do choose to unload Tesla – whether out of fear of “normalization” or motivation to outperform the very same index Tesla is now part of – we could be moving on from the call option renaissance period for Tesla and into an entirely new trading zeitgeist for shares.

We’ll be waiting with bated breath for the next twist in the saga…

Tyler Durden
Tue, 12/22/2020 – 08:25

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/3pkCb6d Tyler Durden

“You’re No Better Than Socialist Dems” – Rand Paul Slams COVID-Bill-Backing Republicans

“You’re No Better Than Socialist Dems” – Rand Paul Slams COVID-Bill-Backing Republicans

Authored by Steve Watson via Summit News,

Senator Rand Paul slammed Republicans Monday for voting in favour of a huge $900 billion coronavirus relief bill, saying that they are no better than the Democrats they routinely label as ‘socialists’.

“To so-called conservatives who are quick to identify the socialism of Democrats: If you vote for this spending monstrosity, you are no better,” Paul urged in a speech on the Senate floor:

The Democrat controlled House, as well as the Senate passed the legislation, also tacking on a $1.4 trillion spending bill, prompting Paul to criticise the move as the government giving away “free money”.

“When you vote to pass out free money, you lose your soul and you abandon forever any semblance of moral or fiscal integrity,” Paul urged.

“If free money was the answer… if money really did grow on trees, why not give more free money?” Paul said.

“Why not give it out all the time? Why stop at $600 a person? Why not $1,000? Why not $2,000? Maybe these new Free-Money Republicans should join the Everybody-Gets-A-Guaranteed-Income Caucus? Why not $20,000 a year for everybody, why not $30,000? If we can print out money with impunity, why not do it?” the Senator proclaimed.

In addition to Paul, only five other Republicans voted against the legislation:

Senator Ted Cruz tweeted that there was no time to even read the bill, ironically agreeing with extreme leftist Democrat Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez:

Paul also noted that it would have been impossible for anyone to have read the bill:

Paul vowed to continue to ‘sound the alarm’ over excessive spending:

Tyler Durden
Tue, 12/22/2020 – 08:10

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2WAbQET Tyler Durden